Oh god we're not here again, are we? As it stood there were around 4m people (12% of the electorate) who wanted a Brexit referendum and used their democratic welly to bring it about. Exactly as it should be. Had Dave not agreed to the referendum there is every chance that the Cons wouldn't have won the GE. Dave did it for this reason. It's simple (and effective) politics.
And he thought the answer, in a delivery was to have the referendum and win.
Doesn’t take many butterflies in 52% vs 48%
For example, at the start of the coalition, the Lib Dems blocked such a referendum which would have been a 60% vs 40% for Remain, minimum, then.
Well his big error was in thinking that a large enough proportion of the people were vaguely intelligent. There was no provision for the idiots, who, it turns out, won it for Leave.
Insulting the voters you don’t like, even harder, would have won it?
Luigi Cadorna would have approved this message.
Look we are where we are. A non-trivial proportion of Leave voters had no idea why they were voting for Leave nor the implications of having done so, and are likely the first to complain about the increased red tape and inconvenience as a result of having voted that way.
That is just the plain god's honest truth. I mean you can call it an insult but it is the case. Of course you have the sincere but misguided folk, plenty on here, who shouted about unelected this or that, and about sovereignty, all rubbish but there was a coherence to it, if it did ignore the way the modern world operates, but I digress.
I'm not insulting anyone by pointing out the truth.
The Remain campaign warned us that Leave would mean wages going up. Some of us were prepared to take that risk.
Thank goodness for you that risk didn't transpire
"Real wages lower than 18 years ago and have fared much worse than any peer nation"
You can see the wage squeeze from the UK being the employer of last resort for the EU after the financial crisis:
It is worth noting that that doesn't necessarily mean any wage squeeze has occurred at all.
If you had 10 people earning $10, and then imported one person earning $1, then even if all the locals continued to earn exactly the same, then average wages would fall.
---
The chart does also raises an interesting question: why have German incomes continued to rise, even though - since 2016 - they have been the location to which EU immigrants from poorer nations flocked?
Perhaps this applies to other migrants to Germany as well as Ukrainians:
The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) released figures showing that as of mid-February 2024, around 6 million Ukrainian war refugees were registered in Europe. The largest number were registered in Germany (1.13 million). This was followed by Poland (956,000), the Czech Republic (381,000), the UK (253,000), Spain (192,000), Italy (168,000) and the Netherlands (149,000).
In comparison to Germany, many countries offer less support to the Ukrainian refugees they are hosting. Poland, for instance, only provides financial assistance for the first three months. Afterward, the refugees must mostly support themselves. The Czech Republic offers the equivalent of €130 per month after the first five months, and the UK pays even less.
In both Poland and the Czech Republic, around two-thirds of Ukrainian refugees are currently working, and 50% are working in the UK –– compared to just 20% in Germany.
No, that was the Brexiteers who said it would be the easiest deal in history/could be sorted out in an afternoon.
It was. All it took was replacing Theresa May as PM and it could be wrapped up quickly without a backstop since we held the cards and got a good deal as a result.
That's the other enduring advantage of the British.
Our adorable sense of humour.
(There will, I'm sure be a new broom / fresh start goodwill / not being nincompoops bounce to be had. Question is how well the next lot can leverage that into being a self-reinforcing virtuous circle.)
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.
However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
Scope creep is endemic now in what is assumed to be a shared belief system.
One of my committee said proudly, "I am not of the Right", as if she expected people to agree with and applaud her. I was tempted to say, that's good; I'm not of the Left either, but decided that would be churlish.
Instead, I'm dripping in objections to taking polarising positions on car ownership or proscribing people's diets, but I'm sure I've blown enough gentle whistles for her to have figured it out by now.
I personally think that the unanimous judgment on this bodes rather ill for Trump on immunity.
Reading between the lines, liberal justices aren't being too partisan on this - they have grumbles but ultimately it's unanimous on the central issue - and there may well be an expectation that at least four and potentially all six conservative justices won't be too partisan on immunity.
Oh god we're not here again, are we? As it stood there were around 4m people (12% of the electorate) who wanted a Brexit referendum and used their democratic welly to bring it about. Exactly as it should be. Had Dave not agreed to the referendum there is every chance that the Cons wouldn't have won the GE. Dave did it for this reason. It's simple (and effective) politics.
And he thought the answer, in a delivery was to have the referendum and win.
Doesn’t take many butterflies in 52% vs 48%
For example, at the start of the coalition, the Lib Dems blocked such a referendum which would have been a 60% vs 40% for Remain, minimum, then.
Well his big error was in thinking that a large enough proportion of the people were vaguely intelligent. There was no provision for the idiots, who, it turns out, won it for Leave.
Insulting the voters you don’t like, even harder, would have won it?
Luigi Cadorna would have approved this message.
Look we are where we are. A non-trivial proportion of Leave voters had no idea why they were voting for Leave nor the implications of having done so, and are likely the first to complain about the increased red tape and inconvenience as a result of having voted that way.
That is just the plain god's honest truth. I mean you can call it an insult but it is the case. Of course you have the sincere but misguided folk, plenty on here, who shouted about unelected this or that, and about sovereignty, all rubbish but there was a coherence to it, if it did ignore the way the modern world operates, but I digress.
I'm not insulting anyone by pointing out the truth.
The Remain campaign warned us that Leave would mean wages going up. Some of us were prepared to take that risk.
Thank goodness for you that risk didn't transpire
"Real wages lower than 18 years ago and have fared much worse than any peer nation"
Looks like the damage was done during the GFC, and the immediate aftermath. Set the baseline to 2014 and the blue curve would be almost identical to the thick black line.
Take away the bits that go down and the graph goes up! 😎
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ? (Genuine question.)
I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis. That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.
What’s the upside case for us ?
The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
In Korea’s case it perhaps solves their looming economic problems, though. Manufacturing lends itself to automation.
And AI lends itself to automating knowledge work...
So, playing on Britain's strengths: * Pioneer the use of AI in our legal system - become the global venue of choice for cheaper, faster legal action * Extend / improve copyright to better protect the output of AI, at the expense of traditional media if necessary * Lower compliance costs for those who want to store and process large data sets * Get the FCA to approve and encourage AI finance products.
(not entirely serious about all of these...)
The Claude v3 model was announced a few hours ago and I was interested to spot a specific call-out in their paper "For example, while Claude models could support a lawyer or doctor, they should not be deployed instead of one"
Shame all their effort will be in vain as City take the title again
You are correct. In the run in Arsenal will again fail to close out 2 or 3 games against 'small' teams which will cost them the title, whilst Man City come through to win as they did yesterday.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.
However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?
If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
As an atheist it feels rather odd to see the Church seemingly disavow the concept of proselytizing. Is that really what they are doing? I'd understand it more if they said they apologised for efforts to force people and how they went about trying to convert, rather than apparently apologising for the goal of conversion.
What do Black African Christians think about all this?
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00. Then downhill.
Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.
Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.
The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.
However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?
If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
But surely that summary suggests even the goal of converting people is wrong, not simply that their actions in pursuit of the goal was wrong? And if they think converting people to Christianity is wrong, what should they be doing instead? Or are they saying Africans should not have become Christians?
I feel like I will need to read the report as surely they found a way of saying the way they went about it was wrong rather than that converting Africans was bad.
So a May election is still possible if things are being done quickly
Merging NI and income tax?
Sh.. don't tell Malcolm.
Seriously, merging them is the right long-term goal but it cannot be done in one move - that would imply a 12% tax rise for a lot of pensioners. Impact would dwarf removing the triple-lock. DM and Express would self-combust.
It could and should be done in one move by Starmer if he wins the next election.
Well, perhaps I am being a bit too hesitant. If you have a 400 seat majority why not go for it, eh?
Anyone know how much it would raise? Enough to cut a few pence off the consequent standard ICT rate (of 32%) I'd warrant.
Sounds like a good idea, merge the two and have a merged rate at 30%.
That'd be a substantial tax cut for those working for a living, and those not working for their income can start to pay their own share instead.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ? (Genuine question.)
I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis. That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.
What’s the upside case for us ?
The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
10 MAKE_BABIES() 20 GOTO 10
Easy.
(and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00. Then downhill.
Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.
Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.
The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
I had a fun trip to New York in 2009, two dollars to a pound. But the dollar was weak against many currencies then, not just the pound. Not sure that was Labour's doing.
Didn’t mean to imply it was, just to express a hope that the wheel of fortune spins favourably for the UK soon.
It’s been a pisspoor decade or so. It’s time for the next thing.
Trouble is people might well say that the time you talk about was just a brief period of irrational exuberance before returning to post 1945 reality. And what's wrong with Vienna?
Nothing, if you like mobility scooters and the orthopaedic shoe shops.
It always comes top of quality of life measures. But it it's really true, why do so few Germans live there? (Only 70000)
I've lived in Vienna. It's very atmospheric and at same time very dull. It's like you've checked into a grand old hotel where not much happens except maybe inside the rooms.
The Ipsos poll dominates the front page of the Evening Standard in London this evening.
The supplementaries are well reported and frankly no one comes of it very well. Yes, there is no strong enthusiasm for Starmer and Labour but the sheer contempt in which Sunak and the Conservatives are held makes that pale into insignificance and may provide some cover for the first months of a Starmer Government as expectations are so low.
Bouncy old Deltapoll is much better for the Conservatives with the lead cut to 14 but as uusual the publicised data tables tell us next to nothing.
Redfield & Wilton's headline numbers are little changed - glancing through the data tables, it seems 65% of the current Reform vote is or are former 2019 Conservative voters but 35% isn't or aren't. The England sub sample comes out at Labour 44%, Conservative 24%, Reform 14%, LD 10%
The swing from December 2019 would be 16.5% Conservative to Labour - Ipsos would be larger, Deltapoll smaller.
So a May election is still possible if things are being done quickly
Merging NI and income tax?
Sh.. don't tell Malcolm.
Seriously, merging them is the right long-term goal but it cannot be done in one move - that would imply a 12% tax rise for a lot of pensioners. Impact would dwarf removing the triple-lock. DM and Express would self-combust.
I agree, we would need a series of cuts in employee NI such as we had in the last budget before the long overdue consolidation could be done. Of course, that does not mean that we should not have additional taxes on investment income such as the old Investment Income Surcharge or treat dividend income in a way more akin to earned income so that the choice of small private companies as to whether or not to pay dividends or wages becomes more tax neutral than it is at the moment.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.
However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?
If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
But surely that summary suggests even the goal of converting people is wrong, not simply that their actions in pursuit of the goal was wrong? And if they think converting people to Christianity is wrong, what should they be doing instead? Or are they saying Africans should not have become Christians?
I feel like I will need to read the report as surely they found a way of saying the way they went about it was wrong rather than that converting Africans was bad.
There's a difference between proselytising in coexistence with others beliefs systems and going out of your way seeking to destroy others beliefs systems.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ? (Genuine question.)
I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis. That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.
What’s the upside case for us ?
The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
In Korea’s case it perhaps solves their looming economic problems, though. Manufacturing lends itself to automation.
And AI lends itself to automating knowledge work...
So, playing on Britain's strengths: * Pioneer the use of AI in our legal system - become the global venue of choice for cheaper, faster legal action * Extend / improve copyright to better protect the output of AI, at the expense of traditional media if necessary * Lower compliance costs for those who want to store and process large data sets * Get the FCA to approve and encourage AI finance products.
(not entirely serious about all of these...)
The Claude v3 model was announced a few hours ago and I was interested to spot a specific call-out in their paper "For example, while Claude models could support a lawyer or doctor, they should not be deployed instead of one"
Both fields are great examples of how regulation prevents disruptive technology.
There are already legal expert systems that can do a better job than any single judge or barrister. That's 1980s tech, and it's being used solely in extremely expensive training or research systems.
I know of at least one well-established company working in this field that has all the building blocks ready to go within days in the event of the regulatory or competitive landscapes shifting even the tiniest bit...
As for medical stuff, a radiologist friend tells me that there's been a torrent of AI hype in his field over the last few years. I'm sure other medical disciplines are the same.
Whether or not we want to give this stuff free reign is a different matter - but the opportunity to make ourselves a leader by coming up with suitably light-touch regulatory frameworks is probably there if we want it.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00. Then downhill.
Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.
Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.
The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.
Oh god we're not here again, are we? As it stood there were around 4m people (12% of the electorate) who wanted a Brexit referendum and used their democratic welly to bring it about. Exactly as it should be. Had Dave not agreed to the referendum there is every chance that the Cons wouldn't have won the GE. Dave did it for this reason. It's simple (and effective) politics.
And he thought the answer, in a delivery was to have the referendum and win.
Doesn’t take many butterflies in 52% vs 48%
For example, at the start of the coalition, the Lib Dems blocked such a referendum which would have been a 60% vs 40% for Remain, minimum, then.
Well his big error was in thinking that a large enough proportion of the people were vaguely intelligent. There was no provision for the idiots, who, it turns out, won it for Leave.
Insulting the voters you don’t like, even harder, would have won it?
Luigi Cadorna would have approved this message.
Look we are where we are. A non-trivial proportion of Leave voters had no idea why they were voting for Leave nor the implications of having done so, and are likely the first to complain about the increased red tape and inconvenience as a result of having voted that way.
That is just the plain god's honest truth. I mean you can call it an insult but it is the case. Of course you have the sincere but misguided folk, plenty on here, who shouted about unelected this or that, and about sovereignty, all rubbish but there was a coherence to it, if it did ignore the way the modern world operates, but I digress.
I'm not insulting anyone by pointing out the truth.
The Remain campaign warned us that Leave would mean wages going up. Some of us were prepared to take that risk.
Thank goodness for you that risk didn't transpire
"Real wages lower than 18 years ago and have fared much worse than any peer nation"
You can see the wage squeeze from the UK being the employer of last resort for the EU after the financial crisis:
It is worth noting that that doesn't necessarily mean any wage squeeze has occurred at all.
If you had 10 people earning $10, and then imported one person earning $1, then even if all the locals continued to earn exactly the same, then average wages would fall.
---
The chart does also raises an interesting question: why have German incomes continued to rise, even though - since 2016 - they have been the location to which EU immigrants from poorer nations flocked?
Perhaps this applies to other migrants to Germany as well as Ukrainians:
The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) released figures showing that as of mid-February 2024, around 6 million Ukrainian war refugees were registered in Europe. The largest number were registered in Germany (1.13 million). This was followed by Poland (956,000), the Czech Republic (381,000), the UK (253,000), Spain (192,000), Italy (168,000) and the Netherlands (149,000).
In comparison to Germany, many countries offer less support to the Ukrainian refugees they are hosting. Poland, for instance, only provides financial assistance for the first three months. Afterward, the refugees must mostly support themselves. The Czech Republic offers the equivalent of €130 per month after the first five months, and the UK pays even less.
In both Poland and the Czech Republic, around two-thirds of Ukrainian refugees are currently working, and 50% are working in the UK –– compared to just 20% in Germany.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.
However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?
If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
But surely that summary suggests even the goal of converting people is wrong, not simply that their actions in pursuit of the goal was wrong? And if they think converting people to Christianity is wrong, what should they be doing instead? Or are they saying Africans should not have become Christians?
I feel like I will need to read the report as surely they found a way of saying the way they went about it was wrong rather than that converting Africans was bad.
There's a difference between proselytising in coexistence with others beliefs systems and going out of your way seeking to destroy others beliefs systems.
That's why I assume the report has more nuance than the headlien summary.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
As an atheist it feels rather odd to see the Church seemingly disavow the concept of proselytizing. Is that really what they are doing? I'd understand it more if they said they apologised for efforts to force people and how they went about trying to convert, rather than apparently apologising for the goal of conversion.
What do Black African Christians think about all this?
It is bizarre. "Come, follow Me,” Jesus said, “and I will make you fishers of men.” Matthew 4.19.
Two possibly relevant facts about South Korean fertility rates: First, some wealthy South Koreans are still sending expectant mothers to the US, so that their babies can be American citizens. (The practice has drawn criticism in both nations.)
Second, East Asian women's fertility rates in the US are about the same as non-Hispanic whites, about 1.5 as I recall. As far as I know that is at least as true for Korean-Americans, as for other East Asians.)
What I conclude, tentatively, from these facts is that some South Korean women don't want to have babies in a nation living next to Kim's North Korea. (One check on this would be to see if the fertility rate began to fall after the failure of an earlier government's "sunshine policy".)
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ? (Genuine question.)
I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis. That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.
I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.
However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?
If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
But surely that summary suggests even the goal of converting people is wrong, not simply that their actions in pursuit of the goal was wrong? And if they think converting people to Christianity is wrong, what should they be doing instead? Or are they saying Africans should not have become Christians?
I feel like I will need to read the report as surely they found a way of saying the way they went about it was wrong rather than that converting Africans was bad.
The link to the report is in the first paragraph here:
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ? (Genuine question.)
I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis. That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.
What’s the upside case for us ?
The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
10 MAKE_BABIES() 20 GOTO 10
Easy.
(and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
Has the 'hover over likes' stopped showing people's names? I used to enjoy seeing who 'got' my obscure geek/nerd references. I blame Rishi.
I personally think that the unanimous judgment on this bodes rather ill for Trump on immunity.
Reading between the lines, liberal justices aren't being too partisan on this - they have grumbles but ultimately it's unanimous on the central issue - and there may well be an expectation that at least four and potentially all six conservative justices won't be too partisan on immunity.
I personally think that the unanimous judgment on this bodes rather ill for Trump on immunity.
Reading between the lines, liberal justices aren't being too partisan on this - they have grumbles but ultimately it's unanimous on the central issue - and there may well be an expectation that at least four and potentially all six conservative justices won't be too partisan on immunity.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00. Then downhill.
Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.
Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.
The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.
I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.
However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?
If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
But surely that summary suggests even the goal of converting people is wrong, not simply that their actions in pursuit of the goal was wrong? And if they think converting people to Christianity is wrong, what should they be doing instead? Or are they saying Africans should not have become Christians?
I feel like I will need to read the report as surely they found a way of saying the way they went about it was wrong rather than that converting Africans was bad.
There's a difference between proselytising in coexistence with others beliefs systems and going out of your way seeking to destroy others beliefs systems.
That's why I assume the report has more nuance than the headlien summary.
Not seen the headline summary, I'm just going off the words @Gardenwalker quoted: "seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems"
That bloody well is something they should apologise for.
I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
Is it vegan?
Only if free range and organically fed to begin with.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
It's only going to get worse for CON. inflation will start to rise again in the autumn so interest rates aren't coming down. More people will be remortgaging onto much higher rate mortgages. Gloom all round.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
It depends whether you are the target market or not.
Oh god we're not here again, are we? As it stood there were around 4m people (12% of the electorate) who wanted a Brexit referendum and used their democratic welly to bring it about. Exactly as it should be. Had Dave not agreed to the referendum there is every chance that the Cons wouldn't have won the GE. Dave did it for this reason. It's simple (and effective) politics.
And he thought the answer, in a delivery was to have the referendum and win.
Doesn’t take many butterflies in 52% vs 48%
For example, at the start of the coalition, the Lib Dems blocked such a referendum which would have been a 60% vs 40% for Remain, minimum, then.
Well his big error was in thinking that a large enough proportion of the people were vaguely intelligent. There was no provision for the idiots, who, it turns out, won it for Leave.
Insulting the voters you don’t like, even harder, would have won it?
Luigi Cadorna would have approved this message.
Look we are where we are. A non-trivial proportion of Leave voters had no idea why they were voting for Leave nor the implications of having done so, and are likely the first to complain about the increased red tape and inconvenience as a result of having voted that way.
That is just the plain god's honest truth. I mean you can call it an insult but it is the case. Of course you have the sincere but misguided folk, plenty on here, who shouted about unelected this or that, and about sovereignty, all rubbish but there was a coherence to it, if it did ignore the way the modern world operates, but I digress.
I'm not insulting anyone by pointing out the truth.
The Remain campaign warned us that Leave would mean wages going up. Some of us were prepared to take that risk.
Thank goodness for you that risk didn't transpire
"Real wages lower than 18 years ago and have fared much worse than any peer nation"
Looks like the damage was done during the GFC, and the immediate aftermath. Set the baseline to 2014 and the blue curve would be almost identical to the thick black line.
Take away the bits that go down and the graph goes up! 😎
The comment was about the effects of Brexit, so the reference point should be at that date.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ? (Genuine question.)
I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis. That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.
What’s the upside case for us ?
The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
10 MAKE_BABIES() 20 GOTO 10
Easy.
(and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
That would create an infinity loop.
Unless I was a Haredi Jew I'd probably want a breakclause: 15 IF BABIES() =>3 THEN END
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ? (Genuine question.)
I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis. That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.
What’s the upside case for us ?
The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
10 MAKE_BABIES() 20 GOTO 10
Easy.
(and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
Has the 'hover over likes' stopped showing people's names? I used to enjoy seeing who 'got' my obscure geek/nerd references. I blame Rishi.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ? (Genuine question.)
I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis. That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.
What’s the upside case for us ?
rejoining the single market axing the green belt
- Big increase in child benefit, with no taper until 80k - Compulsory free government funded nursery school starting from 2 years (like école maternelle), with free infant childcare - reduced tax rates for parents of dependent children
I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
All turkeys die in December.
Only a few die in May.
The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
As an atheist it feels rather odd to see the Church seemingly disavow the concept of proselytizing. Is that really what they are doing? I'd understand it more if they said they apologised for efforts to force people and how they went about trying to convert, rather than apparently apologising for the goal of conversion.
What do Black African Christians think about all this?
You can't blame them. They want to proselytize about something that gets a bit of traction.
I can't think of a political gap that's bigger than between CoE clergy and its laity.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ? (Genuine question.)
I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis. That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.
What’s the upside case for us ?
The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
10 MAKE_BABIES() 20 GOTO 10
Easy.
(and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
That would create an infinity loop.
Unless I was a Haredi Jew I'd probably want a breakclause: 15 IF BABIES() =>3 THEN END
God, I love BASIC.
For the authentic 1980s BASIC experience it should be
Completely off topic, but fun: "DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK, Calif. — If it weren’t for all the floating, the paddling, the sloshing around, the lake smack in the middle of this desert might be mistaken for a mirage.
This is the driest place in America, a place famous for sweltering 120-degree summers, a place whose very name suggests inhospitableness. It is perhaps the last corner of the continent one might expect to stumble upon miles of water.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00. Then downhill.
Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.
Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.
The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ? (Genuine question.)
I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis. That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.
What’s the upside case for us ?
The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
10 MAKE_BABIES() 20 GOTO 10
Easy.
(and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
That would create an infinity loop.
Unless I was a Haredi Jew I'd probably want a breakclause: 15 IF BABIES() =>3 THEN END
God, I love BASIC.
For the authentic 1980s BASIC experience it should be
10 PRINT "I AM SKILL" 20 GOTO 10
And, then, you hit escape after the screen has printed that 84 times before your C64 blows up.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ? (Genuine question.)
I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis. That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.
What’s the upside case for us ?
The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
10 MAKE_BABIES() 20 GOTO 10
Easy.
(and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
That would create an infinity loop.
Unless I was a Haredi Jew I'd probably want a breakclause: 15 IF BABIES() =>3 THEN END
God, I love BASIC.
For the authentic 1980s BASIC experience it should be
I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
Completely off topic, but fun: "DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK, Calif. — If it weren’t for all the floating, the paddling, the sloshing around, the lake smack in the middle of this desert might be mistaken for a mirage.
This is the driest place in America, a place famous for sweltering 120-degree summers, a place whose very name suggests inhospitableness. It is perhaps the last corner of the continent one might expect to stumble upon miles of water.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.
I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00. Then downhill.
Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.
Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.
The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ? (Genuine question.)
I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis. That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.
What’s the upside case for us ?
The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
10 MAKE_BABIES() 20 GOTO 10
Easy.
(and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
That would create an infinity loop.
Unless I was a Haredi Jew I'd probably want a breakclause: 15 IF BABIES() =>3 THEN END
God, I love BASIC.
For the authentic 1980s BASIC experience it should be
10 PRINT "I AM SKILL" 20 GOTO 10
Skill. I completely forgot that one. Not a million miles from Slay actually.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.
I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
It is an interesting debate. Is it a worldwide communion, or just an English one?
As I am not an Anglican, I rightly don't get a say.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
What are the upside gamechangers for the U.K. ? (Genuine question.)
I was thinking about S Korea’s difficulties, and wondered if they might be in a sweet spot where AI/automation bails them out of the demographic crisis. That would work particularly well for an economy highly engaged in manufacturing.
What’s the upside case for us ?
The problem of no-one in a large nation wanting any babies is the problem. It only has a more babies solution. Babies are an end in themselves, not a means to an end. AI may be jolly clever but is not an end in itself, and I rather doubt if it is better at making babies than the tried and tested method.
In Korea’s case it perhaps solves their looming economic problems, though. Manufacturing lends itself to automation.
And AI lends itself to automating knowledge work...
So, playing on Britain's strengths: * Pioneer the use of AI in our legal system - become the global venue of choice for cheaper, faster legal action * Extend / improve copyright to better protect the output of AI, at the expense of traditional media if necessary * Lower compliance costs for those who want to store and process large data sets * Get the FCA to approve and encourage AI finance products.
(not entirely serious about all of these...)
But in our case, wiping out employment in the sectors where we don’t need to do so - and doing nothing for the service sectors (health & social care) where we could do with some help in that respect.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
The CoE is essentially staffed by self-flaggelating Corbynites.
However, in such a system, it's very difficult to make an opposing argument without being ostracised: I'm trying to do it at the moment on a "sustainability committee" for a major organisation that has loud, voluble and rather dominant people who want to advocate for banning private car ownership and enforce vegan-only diets at all events.
I just think it’s batshit that a group that by definition is dedicated to observing and promoting a certain belief should decide that it’s something to apologise for).
Or perhaps that's precisely why they should?
If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
But surely that summary suggests even the goal of converting people is wrong, not simply that their actions in pursuit of the goal was wrong? And if they think converting people to Christianity is wrong, what should they be doing instead? Or are they saying Africans should not have become Christians?
I feel like I will need to read the report as surely they found a way of saying the way they went about it was wrong rather than that converting Africans was bad.
Two possibly relevant facts about South Korean fertility rates: First, some wealthy South Koreans are still sending expectant mothers to the US, so that their babies can be American citizens. (The practice has drawn criticism in both nations.)
Second, East Asian women's fertility rates in the US are about the same as non-Hispanic whites, about 1.5 as I recall. As far as I know that is at least as true for Korean-Americans, as for other East Asians.)
What I conclude, tentatively, from these facts is that some South Korean women don't want to have babies in a nation living next to Kim's North Korea. (One check on this would be to see if the fertility rate began to fall after the failure of an earlier government's "sunshine policy".)
Fertility rates are a disaster in Japan (1.4), Singapore (1.2), Hong Kong (1.2) and South Korea (1.1). They aren't much better in China or Russia (both 1.5).
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.
I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
They probably think such parishes need to be decolonised.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.
I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
Capital account vs. Revenue account.
Why have Conservatives stopped understanding the difference?
Two possibly relevant facts about South Korean fertility rates: First, some wealthy South Koreans are still sending expectant mothers to the US, so that their babies can be American citizens. (The practice has drawn criticism in both nations.)
Second, East Asian women's fertility rates in the US are about the same as non-Hispanic whites, about 1.5 as I recall. As far as I know that is at least as true for Korean-Americans, as for other East Asians.)
What I conclude, tentatively, from these facts is that some South Korean women don't want to have babies in a nation living next to Kim's North Korea. (One check on this would be to see if the fertility rate began to fall after the failure of an earlier government's "sunshine policy".)
Fertility rates are a disaster in Japan (1.4), Singapore (1.2), Hong Kong (1.2) and South Korea (1.1). They aren't much better in China or Russia (both 1.5).
I personally think that the unanimous judgment on this bodes rather ill for Trump on immunity.
Reading between the lines, liberal justices aren't being too partisan on this - they have grumbles but ultimately it's unanimous on the central issue - and there may well be an expectation that at least four and potentially all six conservative justices won't be too partisan on immunity.
To my mind the immunity case isn’t even a question. I don’t really think they should even be hearing arguments: the partisan element is the delay inherent in doing so.
I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
All turkeys die in December.
Only a few die in May.
The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
It may not be particularly obvious to those who think that they have got another 5 or 6 months to find post MP employment. Politics is a brutal game and a lot of pretty comfortably well off MPs with spouses as well paid employees and spectacular expenses covering the cost of a second home are going to feel the pinch in a serious way. Even if you believe it is not going to get better why bring it forward?
I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
All turkeys die in December.
Only a few die in May.
The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
It may not be particularly obvious to those who think that they have got another 5 or 6 months to find post MP employment. Politics is a brutal game and a lot of pretty comfortably well off MPs with spouses as well paid employees and spectacular expenses covering the cost of a second home are going to feel the pinch in a serious way. Even if you believe it is not going to get better why bring it forward?
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.
I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
They probably think such parishes need to be decolonised.
The problem with the C of E is most of the Bishops and Deans and Archdeacons and administrators at Church House are now Labour voters but most of the congregation of their churches are Telegraph and Mail reading Conservatives.
There is only so much more woke rubbish and wasting of funds the latter will take from the former before they openly revolt!
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.
I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
They probably think such parishes need to be decolonised.
The problem with the C of E is most of the Bishops and Deans and Archdeacons and administrators at Church House are now Labour voters but most of the congregation of their churches are Telegraph and Mail reading Conservatives.
There is only so much more woke rubbish and wasting of funds the latter will take from the former before they openly revolt!
Well, they will just have to obey their lawful superiors under KCIII or go and join something else.
With the Conservatives stubbornly languishing 20 points behind Labour in the polls it might, as they said in Yes Minister, seem brave for Rishi Sunak to be contemplating calling an early general election.
While October had been largely assumed to be the date in question, nevertheless there are persistent rumours around Westminster that an election on May 2 cannot be entirely ruled out. So what are the factors that will influence Sunak’s decision?
I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
All turkeys die in December.
Only a few die in May.
The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
It may not be particularly obvious to those who think that they have got another 5 or 6 months to find post MP employment. Politics is a brutal game and a lot of pretty comfortably well off MPs with spouses as well paid employees and spectacular expenses covering the cost of a second home are going to feel the pinch in a serious way. Even if you believe it is not going to get better why bring it forward?
In May not all of them will need to find new jobs
The difference in the number of MPs who will lose their jobs in May and October is about zero.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.
I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
It is an interesting debate. Is it a worldwide communion, or just an English one?
As I am not an Anglican, I rightly don't get a say.
It is an English one primarily, the Church of England was founded in the 16th century but the Anglican communion only in the 19th century. The Archbishop of Canterbury is leader of the Church of England but only symbolic first amongst equals of the Anglican communion.
The Roman Catholic church is a global communion where what the Pope and Vatican say applies worldwide. The Anglican communion isn't really
Two possibly relevant facts about South Korean fertility rates: First, some wealthy South Koreans are still sending expectant mothers to the US, so that their babies can be American citizens. (The practice has drawn criticism in both nations.)
Second, East Asian women's fertility rates in the US are about the same as non-Hispanic whites, about 1.5 as I recall. As far as I know that is at least as true for Korean-Americans, as for other East Asians.)
What I conclude, tentatively, from these facts is that some South Korean women don't want to have babies in a nation living next to Kim's North Korea. (One check on this would be to see if the fertility rate began to fall after the failure of an earlier government's "sunshine policy".)
Fertility rates are a disaster in Japan (1.4), Singapore (1.2), Hong Kong (1.2) and South Korea (1.1). They aren't much better in China or Russia (both 1.5).
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.
I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
It is an interesting debate. Is it a worldwide communion, or just an English one?
As I am not an Anglican, I rightly don't get a say.
It is an English one primarily, the Church of England was founded in the 16th century but the Anglican communion only in the 19th century. The Archbishop of Canterbury is leader of the Church of England but only symbolic first amongst equals of the Anglican communion.
The Roman Catholic church is a global communion where what the Pope and Vatican say applies worldwide. The Anglican communion isn't really
You've been telling us for years that the C of E is supreme within the Anglican Communion - senior for instance to the Episcopal Church of Scotland. Now ...
I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
All turkeys die in December.
Only a few die in May.
The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
It may not be particularly obvious to those who think that they have got another 5 or 6 months to find post MP employment. Politics is a brutal game and a lot of pretty comfortably well off MPs with spouses as well paid employees and spectacular expenses covering the cost of a second home are going to feel the pinch in a serious way. Even if you believe it is not going to get better why bring it forward?
In May not all of them will need to find new jobs
The difference in the number of MPs who will lose their jobs in May and October is about zero.
They're going to get destroyed either way.
Yep. I'm not sure where this almost PB consensus arises from?
I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
All turkeys die in December.
Only a few die in May.
The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
It may not be particularly obvious to those who think that they have got another 5 or 6 months to find post MP employment. Politics is a brutal game and a lot of pretty comfortably well off MPs with spouses as well paid employees and spectacular expenses covering the cost of a second home are going to feel the pinch in a serious way. Even if you believe it is not going to get better why bring it forward?
In May not all of them will need to find new jobs
On current polling anyone with less than about 12k of a majority is going to be taking more than a casual look at the situations vacant columns.
I have no issue with Anglicanism being an increasingly African communion. I assume that Anglicans wish to continue to proselytise, and indeed Africa is increasingly where global population growth is centred.
I just think it’s daft to apologise for promoting your own religion, that’s the bloody point, isn’t it? By definition, if you believe in Anglicanism, you must also believe that other religions or belief systems are somehow misguided or at least open to further enlightenment.
I guess that’s just an unfashionable view now, if not downright racist.
I really don't see how you are getting that. A May election at the moment is asking the turkeys to not only vote for an early Christmas but to lie on the cutting board with their gizzards stretched.
All turkeys die in December.
Only a few die in May.
The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
It may not be particularly obvious to those who think that they have got another 5 or 6 months to find post MP employment. Politics is a brutal game and a lot of pretty comfortably well off MPs with spouses as well paid employees and spectacular expenses covering the cost of a second home are going to feel the pinch in a serious way. Even if you believe it is not going to get better why bring it forward?
In May not all of them will need to find new jobs
The difference in the number of MPs who will lose their jobs in May and October is about zero.
They're going to get destroyed either way.
Yep. I'm not sure where this almost PB consensus arises from?
I'm suspicious that those who guessed a certain way in the January competition are talking their book!
I have no issue with Anglicanism being an increasingly African communion. I assume that Anglicans wish to continue to proselytise, and indeed Africa is increasingly where global population growth is centred.
I just think it’s daft to apologise for promoting your own religion, that’s the bloody point, isn’t it? By definition, if you believe in Anglicanism, you must also believe that other religions or belief systems are somehow misguided or at least open to further enlightenment.
I guess that’s just an unfashionable view now, if not downright racist.
"seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems" ≠ "promoting your own religion"
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00. Then downhill.
Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.
Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.
The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
I am not aware of a big rise in the comparative value of Sterling taking place in the late 90s to 2010s.
2000 to 2008 saw a large revaluation of sterling - from around $1.40 to $2.00. Then downhill.
Great for those who wanted a holiday in the USA.
Not so great for those who wanted to export to the USA.
The UK's balance of payments went from a deficit of £3bn in 1998 to a deficit of £62bn in 2008.
I see the fact New Labour were bequeathed a golden economy legacy (almost ideal, in fact) isn't getting much of a mention on here tonight.
Why would it ? It wasn’t what we were talking about.
I wouldn’t argue with the ‘golden legacy’ analysis, though. The Conservatives’ longest lasting economic mistakes were made under Thatcher (along with her successes) and during the last decade and a half.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.
I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
It is an interesting debate. Is it a worldwide communion, or just an English one?
As I am not an Anglican, I rightly don't get a say.
It is an English one primarily, the Church of England was founded in the 16th century but the Anglican communion only in the 19th century. The Archbishop of Canterbury is leader of the Church of England but only symbolic first amongst equals of the Anglican communion.
The Roman Catholic church is a global communion where what the Pope and Vatican say applies worldwide. The Anglican communion isn't really
You've been telling us for years that the C of E is supreme within the Anglican Communion - senior for instance to the Episcopal Church of Scotland. Now ...
On the basis Welby is first amongst equals yes but I would never pretend he has anywhere near the powers over the Anglican communion the Pope has over the Roman Catholic church globally
I have no issue with Anglicanism being an increasingly African communion. I assume that Anglicans wish to continue to proselytise, and indeed Africa is increasingly where global population growth is centred.
I just think it’s daft to apologise for promoting your own religion, that’s the bloody point, isn’t it? By definition, if you believe in Anglicanism, you must also believe that other religions or belief systems are somehow misguided or at least open to further enlightenment.
I guess that’s just an unfashionable view now, if not downright racist.
"seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems" ≠ "promoting your own religion"
Funnily enough you’d probably make a very good monomaniacal 19th century missionary.
I went to school in Britain in 1993/4 and the mood was pretty desolate. The papers would write about how Britain was basically finished. A decent chunk of the bien pensant thought that Britain should basically join the forthcoming European currency and dissolve itself. The last chapter of Roy Porter’s History of London (pub. 1994) basically says, oh well it was fun while it lasted, but London’s basically a sedate, damper Vienna now: a saved-up slice of wedding cake to be enjoyed by the very old.
Ten years later the exchange rate was so generous to the pound that you could fly to Manhattan and feel like a millionaire. London felt like the centre of the world from about 1997 to 2012.
Hopefully things get better when the Tories are finally ejected. I genuinely believe just a change in government will improve investment prospects, even absent any real change in fiscal policy.
Swings and roundabouts.
I remember GBPUSD at more than $2, and I remember it briefly touching $1.05 when I was a kid. There are times when your country is going through a cyclical upswing, and there are times when the reverse is true.
That doesn't mean there aren't secular themes - like ageing populations - but over medium time frames, great things can look pretty shit, and shit things can look pretty great. And many of the policies, of course, that are most painful in the short-term are great for the long-term, and vice versa.
It's economically illiterate to fixate on the £/$ exchange rate because that tells you as much about the US economy as the British. It's the trade weighted sterling exchange rate that matters, insofar as the exchange rate does at all.
I have no issue with Anglicanism being an increasingly African communion. I assume that Anglicans wish to continue to proselytise, and indeed Africa is increasingly where global population growth is centred.
I just think it’s daft to apologise for promoting your own religion, that’s the bloody point, isn’t it? By definition, if you believe in Anglicanism, you must also believe that other religions or belief systems are somehow misguided or at least open to further enlightenment.
I guess that’s just an unfashionable view now, if not downright racist.
"seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems" ≠ "promoting your own religion"
Funnily enough you’d probably make a very good monomaniacal 19th century overseas evangelist.
Perhaps, but I'm right, aren't I?
There's a difference between seeking to promote your own views (and if others wither and die, then so be it) and going out of your way to destroy others systems so there's no competition to your own.
The Church in its history has done a lot of the latter and it is absolutely a black mark in their history they bloody well should apologise for.
As far as I know “State’s Rights” began and largely maintains as an argument for States to ignore progressive federal legislation, especially around race.
That’s not to say there’s no merit in it though. Brits tend to underestimate the tenacious belief of many Americans in liberty. I find the notion admirable, if many of the effects baleful.
It might be admirable, if it were ever applied as a principle rather than a political tactic. to be discarded at will. US conservatives have rarely shown any interest at all in states' rights when they wish to implement illiberal federal legislation.
The SC have overruled the rights of Blue states to have stricter gun control.
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.
I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
They probably think such parishes need to be decolonised.
The problem with the C of E is most of the Bishops and Deans and Archdeacons and administrators at Church House are now Labour voters but most of the congregation of their churches are Telegraph and Mail reading Conservatives.
There is only so much more woke rubbish and wasting of funds the latter will take from the former before they openly revolt!
Well, they will just have to obey their lawful superiors under KCIII or go and join something else.
They can revolt via the House of Laity in Synod for starters which has the same voteshare as the House of Bishops
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.
I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
It is an interesting debate. Is it a worldwide communion, or just an English one?
As I am not an Anglican, I rightly don't get a say.
It is an English one primarily, the Church of England was founded in the 16th century but the Anglican communion only in the 19th century. The Archbishop of Canterbury is leader of the Church of England but only symbolic first amongst equals of the Anglican communion.
The Roman Catholic church is a global communion where what the Pope and Vatican say applies worldwide. The Anglican communion isn't really
The CoE has warmly welcomed a report from its “Oversight Group” calling on the church to apologise to black Africans for “seeking to destroy diverse African traditional belief systems”.
Utterly barking.
I am not an Anglican, so it's no skin off my nose, but it isn't a daft report.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
Then, call it a business investment plan to strengthen relations. We've neglected our friends for too long etc..
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
It is also utterly outrageous when parishes are being merged and paid stipendiary priests being cut in England. It is the Church of England now not the Church of Africa and even most black British Anglicans would prefer the funds to be spent in Parish ministry here.
I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
They probably think such parishes need to be decolonised.
The problem with the C of E is most of the Bishops and Deans and Archdeacons and administrators at Church House are now Labour voters but most of the congregation of their churches are Telegraph and Mail reading Conservatives.
There is only so much more woke rubbish and wasting of funds the latter will take from the former before they openly revolt!
Well, they will just have to obey their lawful superiors under KCIII or go and join something else.
They can revolt via the House of Laity in Synod for starters which has the same voteshare as the House of Bishops
But what's the point of a fixed hierarchy of religious teachers if you can disobey it when it;s politically convenient?
Comments
Mind you there is a full team of Manchester United players who wouldn't be missed !!!!!!
The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) released figures showing that as of mid-February 2024, around 6 million Ukrainian war refugees were registered in Europe. The largest number were registered in Germany (1.13 million). This was followed by Poland (956,000), the Czech Republic (381,000), the UK (253,000), Spain (192,000), Italy (168,000) and the Netherlands (149,000).
In comparison to Germany, many countries offer less support to the Ukrainian refugees they are hosting. Poland, for instance, only provides financial assistance for the first three months. Afterward, the refugees must mostly support themselves. The Czech Republic offers the equivalent of €130 per month after the first five months, and the UK pays even less.
In both Poland and the Czech Republic, around two-thirds of Ukrainian refugees are currently working, and 50% are working in the UK –– compared to just 20% in Germany.
https://www.dw.com/en/ukrainian-refugees-in-germany-why-few-work-for-a-living/a-68338226#:~:text=After Russia began its full,active in the labor market.&text=Germany has taken in over,214,000 of them were working.
Mrs. Lancaster: "I don't think so, but I could check with the kitchen."
Our adorable sense of humour.
(There will, I'm sure be a new broom / fresh start goodwill / not being nincompoops bounce to be had. Question is how well the next lot can leverage that into being a self-reinforcing virtuous circle.)
One of my committee said proudly, "I am not of the Right", as if she expected people to agree with and applaud her. I was tempted to say, that's good; I'm not of the Left either, but decided that would be churlish.
Instead, I'm dripping in objections to taking polarising positions on car ownership or proscribing people's diets, but I'm sure I've blown enough gentle whistles for her to have figured it out by now.
Shame all their effort will be in vain as City take the title again
Reading between the lines, liberal justices aren't being too partisan on this - they have grumbles but ultimately it's unanimous on the central issue - and there may well be an expectation that at least four and potentially all six conservative justices won't be too partisan on immunity.
If you accept their actions were wrong, and those wrong actions were central to their operations, then shouldn't they apologise and reform?
What do Black African Christians think about all this?
I feel like I will need to read the report as surely they found a way of saying the way they went about it was wrong rather than that converting Africans was bad.
That'd be a substantial tax cut for those working for a living, and those not working for their income can start to pay their own share instead.
Win/win.
(and before any pedants join in - I do know that's not how BASIC works)
And Gordon Brown was happy to give them what they wanted while thinking that the economic consequences could be ignored.
The Ipsos poll dominates the front page of the Evening Standard in London this evening.
The supplementaries are well reported and frankly no one comes of it very well. Yes, there is no strong enthusiasm for Starmer and Labour but the sheer contempt in which Sunak and the Conservatives are held makes that pale into insignificance and may provide some cover for the first months of a Starmer Government as expectations are so low.
Bouncy old Deltapoll is much better for the Conservatives with the lead cut to 14 but as uusual the publicised data tables tell us next to nothing.
Redfield & Wilton's headline numbers are little changed - glancing through the data tables, it seems 65% of the current Reform vote is or are former 2019 Conservative voters but 35% isn't or aren't. The England sub sample comes out at Labour 44%, Conservative 24%, Reform 14%, LD 10%
The swing from December 2019 would be 16.5% Conservative to Labour - Ipsos would be larger, Deltapoll smaller.
And Arsenal have 4 and Sheffield fans walking out
This could be a huge defeat for Sheffield United
There are already legal expert systems that can do a better job than any single judge or barrister. That's 1980s tech, and it's being used solely in extremely expensive training or research systems.
I know of at least one well-established company working in this field that has all the building blocks ready to go within days in the event of the regulatory or competitive landscapes shifting even the tiniest bit...
As for medical stuff, a radiologist friend tells me that there's been a torrent of AI hype in his field over the last few years. I'm sure other medical disciplines are the same.
Whether or not we want to give this stuff free reign is a different matter - but the opportunity to make ourselves a leader by coming up with suitably light-touch regulatory frameworks is probably there if we want it.
The plan is for a billion pound fund aimed at Africa and the African diaspora, and invested in a way that is sympathetic rather than antagonistic to African culture. It is explicitly evangelical and Christian in aim.
The future of the worldwide Anglican community is increasingly in the young African diaspora, with congregations here rather pale and elderly. It is an astute business decision to redirect in that way.
Welcome to the African Century.
We may all have to laud @MoonRabbit.
Second, East Asian women's fertility rates in the US are about the same as non-Hispanic whites, about 1.5 as I recall. As far as I know that is at least as true for Korean-Americans, as for other East Asians.)
What I conclude, tentatively, from these facts is that some South Korean women don't want to have babies in a nation living next to Kim's North Korea. (One check on this would be to see if the fertility rate began to fall after the failure of an earlier government's "sunshine policy".)
axing the green belt
https://www.churchofengland.org/media/press-releases/church-commissioners-england-warmly-welcomes-oversight-groups-report
Might as well.
Admittedly, Johnson would have self-destructed anyway but the finances could have been good.
That bloody well is something they should apologise for.
Naming it "reparations" just pisses people off and opens up a wholly toxic can of worms.
Rishi has to go for May.
Unless I was a Haredi Jew I'd probably want a breakclause: 15 IF BABIES() =>3 THEN END
God, I love BASIC.
- Compulsory free government funded nursery school starting from 2 years (like école maternelle), with free infant childcare
- reduced tax rates for parents of dependent children
Only a few die in May.
The logic is simple, and obvious. Only somebody really dense, like Sunak maybe, can't see it...
I can't think of a political gap that's bigger than between CoE clergy and its laity.
It's remarkable both sides keep turning up.
10 PRINT "I AM SKILL"
20 GOTO 10
This is the driest place in America, a place famous for sweltering 120-degree summers, a place whose very name suggests inhospitableness. It is perhaps the last corner of the continent one might expect to stumble upon miles of water.
But Lake Manly is no illusion. Instead, it’s more like a ghost from Death Valley’s prehistoric past, temporarily resurrected by the fast-changing, climate-churning present."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/03/01/death-valley-lake-california-rain/
(Business tip: If you know this lake is about to appear again, stock up on kayaks.)
Any party in power for more than one term is likely to face major challenges - they just have to be dealt with.
20 GOTO 10
Seems more authentic.
I expect Reverend Marcus Walker will raise a huge row at Synod over this in his role as head of Save the Parish
I was simply correcting Luckyguy’s recall of exchange rates.
As I am not an Anglican, I rightly don't get a say.
Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison/
Why have Conservatives stopped understanding the difference?
I don’t really think they should even be hearing arguments: the partisan element is the delay inherent in doing so.
There is only so much more woke rubbish and wasting of funds the latter will take from the former before they openly revolt!
While October had been largely assumed to be the date in question, nevertheless there are persistent rumours around Westminster that an election on May 2 cannot be entirely ruled out. So what are the factors that will influence Sunak’s decision?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/will-rishi-sunak-call-general-election-may-2024-w92d2phkc
They're going to get destroyed either way.
The Roman Catholic church is a global communion where what the Pope and Vatican say applies worldwide. The Anglican communion isn't really
The last twelve month figure is 0.7 for S Korea.
I'm not sure where this almost PB consensus arises from?
I just think it’s daft to apologise for promoting your own religion, that’s the bloody point, isn’t it? By definition, if you believe in Anglicanism, you must also believe that other religions or belief systems are somehow misguided or at least open to further enlightenment.
I guess that’s just an unfashionable view now, if not downright racist.
"Religion and Party Preference in 2019 |" http://www.brin.ac.uk/figures/religion-and-party-preference-in-2019/
I wouldn’t argue with the ‘golden legacy’ analysis, though. The Conservatives’ longest lasting economic mistakes were made under Thatcher (along with her successes) and during the last decade and a half.
There's a difference between seeking to promote your own views (and if others wither and die, then so be it) and going out of your way to destroy others systems so there's no competition to your own.
The Church in its history has done a lot of the latter and it is absolutely a black mark in their history they bloody well should apologise for.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4507211-biden-campaign-on-trumps-supreme-court-ruling-we-dont-really-care/
Some in tears.
How many other councils heading this way in next year or two?