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Record breaking Rishi – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited March 12 in General
Record breaking Rishi – politicalbetting.com

?NEW from @IpsosUK / @standardnews: Labour lead at 27 / Conservative vote share (20%) lowest in Ipsos history – going back to 1978 (!) ?Labour 47% (-2 from Jan)Conservative 20% (-7)Lib Dem 9% (+2)Green 8% (+1)Reform 8% (+4)Other 7% (nc)https://t.co/99LCSknk1F

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    I know people have a go at me for criticising Rishi Sunak but look at the material I have to work with.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Second - the best that the Tories can hope for.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    tick tock...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    I remember when we all talked about 30% being the hard bottom of Conservative party polling...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    edited March 4
    Fifth

    Rishi and the Rest remind me of a line from an old gospel song:

    "Rushing helter-skelter to destruction with their fingers in their ears."
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    Nah, that's the Europhobes. They've destroyed they party several times, and replaced competent leaders with purists.

    And they're still there, like a turd that won't flush.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    That is a pretty good line from Paul Scully tbf.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Benpointer said:

    That is a pretty good line from Paul Scully tbf.

    A former Tory strategist said it sounded like one of my lines.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 489
    The tories need a ge right freaking now. Because I suspect these numbers will only get worse. Much much worse.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    Perhaps MarqueeMark, Casino Royale, and HYUFD would like to explain why they felt so strongly that this useless article was the key to restoring the party's electoral fortunes.

    Perhaps everyone attacking the Tory membership 'loonies' and their role in leadership elections should apologise, given that clearly they realised that he was a completely empty suit in the hustings and voted as wisely as possible given the choice that they were presented with by MPs.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,240
    Sunak almost as unpopular as Margaret Thatcher klaxon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,568
    Fpt for @JosiasJessop

    “The idea of jetting halfway across the world to stay for a few days in an 'eco' lodge is hilariously ridiculous.”

    Why? I’m having a lovely time. It’s beautiful



    Come and join me in by the waterfall for a cup of excellent Malbec. When it gets too hot you can swim in the river. Its idyllic

    What’s wrong with that??
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    JosiasJessop said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    Nah, that's the Europhobes. They've destroyed they party several times, and replaced competent leaders with purists.

    And they're still there, like a turd that won't flush.
    Cameron just couldnt do party management, there were huge swathes of the country he just didnt understand.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    edited March 4
    JosiasJessop said:

    I remember when we all talked about 30% being the hard bottom of Conservative party polling...

    I feel the urge to re-post the polling trend graph I posted in 15 November:
    image
    The trend remains the same; time advances:
    image
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,669
    JosiasJessop said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    Nah, that's the Europhobes. They've destroyed they party several times, and replaced competent leaders with purists.

    And they're still there, like a turd that won't flush.
    As a broadly Europhile ex-Tory, I have to agree with @Alanbrooke - it was Cameron who destroyed the Tories by failing to understand what it was that the eurosceptics represented, and to whom.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    No, that was the Brexiteers who said it would be the easiest deal in history/could be sorted out in an afternoon.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,614
    edited March 4
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Perhaps MarqueeMark, Casino Royale, and HYUFD would like to explain why they felt so strongly that this useless article was the key to restoring the party's electoral fortunes.

    Perhaps everyone attacking the Tory membership 'loonies' and their role in leadership elections should apologise, given that clearly they realised that he was a completely empty suit in the hustings and voted as wisely as possible given the choice that they were presented with by MPs.

    I would just say Truss was worse, much worse, and handed labour the biggest gift on fiscal probity that they could have had in their wildest dreams, far far worse than ' there is no money'

    And of course in the last week she has been making an utter fool of herself in the US

    The Lib Dems biggest wrecking ball in UK politics
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,669
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    No, that was the Brexiteers who said it would be the easiest deal in history/could be sorted out in an afternoon.
    Now this is an interesting point. I would suggest that Cameron killed the party and the post-2016 Brexiteers buried its twitching corpse.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    mwadams said:

    As a broadly Europhile ex-Tory, I have to agree with @Alanbrooke - it was Cameron who destroyed the Tories by failing to understand what it was that the eurosceptics represented, and to whom.

    Nah.

    His mistake was appeasing them.

    He should have expelled them.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,723
    Tories last polled 30% or higher in October, even a black swan isn't going to save them now.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    edited March 4
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Perhaps MarqueeMark, Casino Royale, and HYUFD would like to explain why they felt so strongly that this useless article was the key to restoring the party's electoral fortunes.

    Perhaps everyone attacking the Tory membership 'loonies' and their role in leadership elections should apologise, given that clearly they realised that he was a completely empty suit in the hustings and voted as wisely as possible given the choice that they were presented with by MPs.

    I would just say Truss was worse, much worse, and handed labour the biggest gift on fiscal probity that could have had on their wildest dreams, far far worse than ' there is no money'

    And of course in the last week she has been making an utter fool of herself in the USv
    But yet at her polling nadir, she polled better than Sunak is now, and it's almost impossible to conceive of a situation whereby the passage of time would not have improved her polling still further.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Perhaps MarqueeMark, Casino Royale, and HYUFD would like to explain why they felt so strongly that this useless article was the key to restoring the party's electoral fortunes.

    Perhaps everyone attacking the Tory membership 'loonies' and their role in leadership elections should apologise, given that clearly they realised that he was a completely empty suit in the hustings and voted as wisely as possible given the choice that they were presented with by MPs.

    And yet, the Tory membership chose Johnson and then Truss. It could be argued they didn't have much to choose from but still...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited March 4
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @JosiasJessop

    “The idea of jetting halfway across the world to stay for a few days in an 'eco' lodge is hilariously ridiculous.”

    Why? I’m having a lovely time. It’s beautiful



    Come and join me in by the waterfall for a cup of excellent Malbec. When it gets too hot you can swim in the river. Its idyllic

    What’s wrong with that??

    Red wine in the tropics is all wrong. You should stick to the local beer. And spirits if you must.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Perhaps MarqueeMark, Casino Royale, and HYUFD would like to explain why they felt so strongly that this useless article was the key to restoring the party's electoral fortunes.

    Perhaps everyone attacking the Tory membership 'loonies' and their role in leadership elections should apologise, given that clearly they realised that he was a completely empty suit in the hustings and voted as wisely as possible given the choice that they were presented with by MPs.

    I would just say Truss was worse, much worse, and handed labour the biggest gift on fiscal probity that could have had on their wildest dreams, far far worse than ' there is no money'

    And of course in the last week she has been making an utter fool of herself in the USv
    But yet at her polling nadir, she polled better than Sunak is now, and it's almost impossible to conceive of a situation whereby the passage of time would not have improved her polling still further.
    Nah, she would have effectively endorsed Tommy Robinson like she did a few weeks ago.

    Tories would have been in the single digits.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,390
    edited March 4
    FPT
    Dura_Ace said:

    Am I the only pb.com pureblood? Has anyone else never had the vax?

    Only surviving one, certainly... :D
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    No, that was the Brexiteers who said it would be the easiest deal in history/could be sorted out in an afternoon.
    Mwahahahahah

    what tosh, Maybe if Cameron had thought of reforming the creaky ship of state by building houses, cutting back Blair's tsunami of legislation and spending more time in the North and Scotland you's have a point.

    But he didnt He had no vision of what he wanted this country to be,
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    He bears some responsibility, but it was something of a rolling collaborative project.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,614
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Perhaps MarqueeMark, Casino Royale, and HYUFD would like to explain why they felt so strongly that this useless article was the key to restoring the party's electoral fortunes.

    Perhaps everyone attacking the Tory membership 'loonies' and their role in leadership elections should apologise, given that clearly they realised that he was a completely empty suit in the hustings and voted as wisely as possible given the choice that they were presented with by MPs.

    I would just say Truss was worse, much worse, and handed labour the biggest gift on fiscal probity that could have had on their wildest dreams, far far worse than ' there is no money'

    And of course in the last week she has been making an utter fool of herself in the USv
    But yet at her polling nadir, she polled better than Sunak is now, and it's almost impossible to conceive of a situation whereby the passage of time would not have improved her polling still further.
    Sunak has had an impossible task and if you think saluting Trump and the extreme right in the US would improve her ratings you are simply in denial
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Nigelb said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    He bears some responsibility, but it was something of a rolling collaborative project.
    Of course, bur he set the stone rolling down the hill.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,669
    Scott_xP said:

    mwadams said:

    As a broadly Europhile ex-Tory, I have to agree with @Alanbrooke - it was Cameron who destroyed the Tories by failing to understand what it was that the eurosceptics represented, and to whom.

    Nah.

    His mistake was appeasing them.

    He should have expelled them.
    I don't disagree that this was the failure of action.
    But the failure of thinking behind that was a belief that he was clever enough to kill them off for a generation without understanding why that policy wouldn't work.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Perhaps MarqueeMark, Casino Royale, and HYUFD would like to explain why they felt so strongly that this useless article was the key to restoring the party's electoral fortunes.

    Perhaps everyone attacking the Tory membership 'loonies' and their role in leadership elections should apologise, given that clearly they realised that he was a completely empty suit in the hustings and voted as wisely as possible given the choice that they were presented with by MPs.

    I would just say Truss was worse, much worse, and handed labour the biggest gift on fiscal probity that could have had on their wildest dreams, far far worse than ' there is no money'

    And of course in the last week she has been making an utter fool of herself in the USv
    But yet at her polling nadir, she polled better than Sunak is now, and it's almost impossible to conceive of a situation whereby the passage of time would not have improved her polling still further.
    You have a limited imagination, then.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,568
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @JosiasJessop

    “The idea of jetting halfway across the world to stay for a few days in an 'eco' lodge is hilariously ridiculous.”

    Why? I’m having a lovely time. It’s beautiful



    Come and join me in by the waterfall for a cup of excellent Malbec. When it gets too hot you can swim in the river. Its idyllic

    What’s wrong with that??

    Red wine in the tropics is all wrong. You should stick to the local beer. And spirits if you must.
    Dude, I’m about to take one of the strongest hallucinogens known to man with one of its most famous exponents, surrounded by a team of world class scientists (and a film crew) investigating its extraordinary, possibly paradigm-changing entheogenic qualities, I don’t need a lecture on my choice of more minor intoxicants. But thanks anyway
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Scott_xP said:

    mwadams said:

    As a broadly Europhile ex-Tory, I have to agree with @Alanbrooke - it was Cameron who destroyed the Tories by failing to understand what it was that the eurosceptics represented, and to whom.

    Nah.

    His mistake was appeasing them.

    He should have expelled them.
    But he didnt.

    He couldnt manage a nappy change let alone a political party.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,568
    LEAF CUTTER ANT ALERT
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    mwadams said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    Nah, that's the Europhobes. They've destroyed they party several times, and replaced competent leaders with purists.

    And they're still there, like a turd that won't flush.
    As a broadly Europhile ex-Tory, I have to agree with @Alanbrooke - it was Cameron who destroyed the Tories by failing to understand what it was that the eurosceptics represented, and to whom.
    The Eurosceptics represented fairy stories to a loose coalition of wreckers, empire nostalgicists, free market ideologues and people with a sense that they had been left behind. But fairy stories was enough. Not sure Cameron or anyone else could have put the lid back on that Pandora’s Box, once it was opened.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    edited March 4
    file:///C:/Users/Sean/Downloads/Deltapoll-240304_trackers.pdf

    Slightly better news for the Conservatives with Deltapoll

    Labour 41%,
    Con 27%
    Lib Dem 9%
    Reform 12%.

    Lab lead by 42% to 31% on forced choice.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    So YouGov are offering me 30 points a week if I will share my browsing history once a week with them.........
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    Benpointer said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Perhaps MarqueeMark, Casino Royale, and HYUFD would like to explain why they felt so strongly that this useless article was the key to restoring the party's electoral fortunes.

    Perhaps everyone attacking the Tory membership 'loonies' and their role in leadership elections should apologise, given that clearly they realised that he was a completely empty suit in the hustings and voted as wisely as possible given the choice that they were presented with by MPs.

    And yet, the Tory membership chose Johnson and then Truss. It could be argued they didn't have much to choose from but still...
    Given that Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Hunt, and Liz Truss beat Rishi Sunak, I'd say that's a two for two in members' favour.

    Yes, Truss imploded. She greatly underestimated the opposition there would be to her policies, and paid the price. Sunak never had a plan in the first place.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,282
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    No, that was the Brexiteers who said it would be the easiest deal in history/could be sorted out in an afternoon.
    They were essentially right. The difficult bit was managing the politics of it rather than the deal itself.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,568
    edited March 4
    Benpointer said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    I remember when we all talked about 30% being the hard bottom of Conservative party polling...

    I feel the urge to re-post the polling trend graph I posted in 15 November:
    image
    The trend remains the same; time advances:
    image
    And people pooh-poohed you for it. And I said No, you were on to something

    And it looks like you were
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited March 4
    SCOTUS rules Trump wrongly removed from the Colorado ballot.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf

    But it is great to see SCOTUS can move quickly when required.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    Alanbrooke said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    Nah, that's the Europhobes. They've destroyed they party several times, and replaced competent leaders with purists.

    And they're still there, like a turd that won't flush.
    Cameron just couldnt do party management, there were huge swathes of the country he just didnt understand.
    It appears he understood larger swathes of the country than the current Conservative party...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    I can imagine the costs of keeping a unicorn would eat through that £10k pretty quickly.

    Tories still haven't achieved a sub-20% under Sunak. I kind of hope we see that at some point. It's an interesting question, whether we see sub-40% from Labour or sub-20% from Conservatives first. I was convinced it would be the former with one of the swingback pollsters.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,614
    Sean_F said:

    file:///C:/Users/Sean/Downloads/Deltapoll-240304_trackers.pdf

    Slightly better news for the Conservatives with Deltapoll

    Labour 41%,
    Con 27%
    Lib Dem 9%
    Reform 12%.

    Lab lead by 42% to 31% on forced choice.

    That is labour -3 conservatives +4
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,669
    Monksfield said:

    mwadams said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    Nah, that's the Europhobes. They've destroyed they party several times, and replaced competent leaders with purists.

    And they're still there, like a turd that won't flush.
    As a broadly Europhile ex-Tory, I have to agree with @Alanbrooke - it was Cameron who destroyed the Tories by failing to understand what it was that the eurosceptics represented, and to whom.
    The Eurosceptics represented fairy stories to a loose coalition of wreckers, empire nostalgicists, free market ideologues and people with a sense that they had been left behind. But fairy stories was enough. Not sure Cameron or anyone else could have put the lid back on that Pandora’s Box, once it was opened.
    There were comparatively few of them who caused trouble principally to the party management. The broader Tory coalition held together until it was consciously tested to breaking point by the genius of Cameron's referendum policy. As Alanbrooke says, he kicked the stone down the mountain, rather than trying to keep the cairn together at the top.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @JosiasJessop

    “The idea of jetting halfway across the world to stay for a few days in an 'eco' lodge is hilariously ridiculous.”

    Why? I’m having a lovely time. It’s beautiful



    Come and join me in by the waterfall for a cup of excellent Malbec. When it gets too hot you can swim in the river. Its idyllic

    What’s wrong with that??

    I'll do that after you join me on a marathon. ;)

    It's the 'eco' part of it that I'm laughing at. There's f-all 'eco' about it.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,669
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So YouGov are offering me 30 points a week if I will share my browsing history once a week with them.........

    Are YouGov prepared for the consequences?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    JosiasJessop said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    Nah, that's the Europhobes. They've destroyed they party several times, and replaced competent leaders with purists.

    And they're still there, like a turd that won't flush.
    Cameron just couldnt do party management, there were huge swathes of the country he just didnt understand.
    It appears he understood larger swathes of the country than the current Conservative party...
    Yes, those swathes are going off to Reform or sitting on their hands. Tory MPs have been incredibly self indulgent and have forgotten why voters sent them to Parliament.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,586
    Supreme Court says Trump is still on the ballot https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,146
    mwadams said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    No, that was the Brexiteers who said it would be the easiest deal in history/could be sorted out in an afternoon.
    Now this is an interesting point. I would suggest that Cameron killed the party and the post-2016 Brexiteers buried its twitching corpse.
    Fairly sure that the post-2016 Brexiteers rogered the twitching corpse before burying it, they just seem like those sort of people.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,317
    edited March 4
    I agree with @Alanbrooke.

    Cameron was guilty of hubristic insouciance.
    No-one with an ounce of sense would have set up the Brexit referendum in the way he did.

    Having said that, no Tory leader from Major onwards has managed to figure out a stable accommodation with Euroscepticism (now effectively indistinguishable from national populism). Expulsion, as recommended above, is daft.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    mwadams said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So YouGov are offering me 30 points a week if I will share my browsing history once a week with them.........

    Are YouGov prepared for the consequences?
    I am about to order the M3 Macbook Air that was announced today which means in a few weeks time I have to hand my old Macbook to the Apple store staff to transfer things across.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    No, that was the Brexiteers who said it would be the easiest deal in history/could be sorted out in an afternoon.
    They were essentially right. The difficult bit was managing the politics of it rather than the deal itself.
    Were they fuck.

    My job now requires about 40% more paperwork thanks to Brexit and costs are up to as well.

    Explain to me why that is easy?
    You're earning more and complaining ?

    Try care homes for a living you might appreciate how lucky you are.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @JosiasJessop

    “The idea of jetting halfway across the world to stay for a few days in an 'eco' lodge is hilariously ridiculous.”

    Why? I’m having a lovely time. It’s beautiful



    Come and join me in by the waterfall for a cup of excellent Malbec. When it gets too hot you can swim in the river. Its idyllic

    What’s wrong with that??

    Red wine in the tropics is all wrong. You should stick to the local beer. And spirits if you must.
    Dude, I’m about to take one of the strongest hallucinogens known to man with one of its most famous exponents, surrounded by a team of world class scientists (and a film crew) investigating its extraordinary, possibly paradigm-changing entheogenic qualities, I don’t need a lecture on my choice of more minor intoxicants. But thanks anyway
    You just asked what was wrong with the picture you painted and I pointed it out.

    Don't shoot the messenger.

    Enjoy your mind-expanding experience; let us know if your paradigm changes.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Perhaps MarqueeMark, Casino Royale, and HYUFD would like to explain why they felt so strongly that this useless article was the key to restoring the party's electoral fortunes.

    Perhaps everyone attacking the Tory membership 'loonies' and their role in leadership elections should apologise, given that clearly they realised that he was a completely empty suit in the hustings and voted as wisely as possible given the choice that they were presented with by MPs.

    I would just say Truss was worse, much worse, and handed labour the biggest gift on fiscal probity that could have had on their wildest dreams, far far worse than ' there is no money'

    And of course in the last week she has been making an utter fool of herself in the USv
    But yet at her polling nadir, she polled better than Sunak is now, and it's almost impossible to conceive of a situation whereby the passage of time would not have improved her polling still further.
    Nah, she would have effectively endorsed Tommy Robinson like she did a few weeks ago.

    Tories would have been in the single digits.
    I could absolutely have seen Truss's polling declining further. I don't think there's ever been a person less suited to the role elevated to PM. But honestly she was sending the country into a serious financial crisis anyway, so I doubt she'd have ever had the chance to get a decent series of polling data.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    No, that was the Brexiteers who said it would be the easiest deal in history/could be sorted out in an afternoon.
    They were essentially right. The difficult bit was managing the politics of it rather than the deal itself.
    Were they fuck.

    My job now requires about 40% more paperwork thanks to Brexit and costs are up to as well.

    Explain to me why that is easy?
    You're earning more and complaining ?

    Try care homes for a living you might appreciate how lucky you are.
    But it is more aggro for the firm, lucky for the UK financial services isn't the biggest contributor to the Exchequer.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    Nigelb said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Perhaps MarqueeMark, Casino Royale, and HYUFD would like to explain why they felt so strongly that this useless article was the key to restoring the party's electoral fortunes.

    Perhaps everyone attacking the Tory membership 'loonies' and their role in leadership elections should apologise, given that clearly they realised that he was a completely empty suit in the hustings and voted as wisely as possible given the choice that they were presented with by MPs.

    I would just say Truss was worse, much worse, and handed labour the biggest gift on fiscal probity that could have had on their wildest dreams, far far worse than ' there is no money'

    And of course in the last week she has been making an utter fool of herself in the USv
    But yet at her polling nadir, she polled better than Sunak is now, and it's almost impossible to conceive of a situation whereby the passage of time would not have improved her polling still further.
    You have a limited imagination, then.
    Her fiscal plans have been shown by hindsight to have been entirely affordable. Had her platform been implemented, we'd have had no CT rise, and a raft of policies aimed at tackling inflation at its root cause by increasing domestic supply of energy and food. I think it very unlikely we'd have dipped into recession, and that would have improved the public finances, which are massively skewed by growth or lack of it.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,231
    JosiasJessop said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @JosiasJessop

    “The idea of jetting halfway across the world to stay for a few days in an 'eco' lodge is hilariously ridiculous.”

    Why? I’m having a lovely time. It’s beautiful



    Come and join me in by the waterfall for a cup of excellent Malbec. When it gets too hot you can swim in the river. Its idyllic

    What’s wrong with that??

    I'll do that after you join me on a marathon. ;)

    It's the 'eco' part of it that I'm laughing at. There's f-all 'eco' about it.
    What if they were called rustic wildlife observation lodges? That's basically what they are.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SCOTUS rules Trump wrongly removed from the Colorado ballot.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf

    But it is great to see SCOTUS can move quickly when required.

    9-0 as well.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    Sean_F said:

    file:///C:/Users/Sean/Downloads/Deltapoll-240304_trackers.pdf

    Slightly better news for the Conservatives with Deltapoll

    Labour 41%,
    Con 27%
    Lib Dem 9%
    Reform 12%.

    Lab lead by 42% to 31% on forced choice.

    There's a big swing away from LLG in that poll

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1764648137061286249?s=20

    Reform are on 12%. It's LLG 56%, RefCon 39%. By far the best right wing showing for ages.

    All fieldwork post-Rochdale.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SCOTUS rules Trump wrongly removed from the Colorado ballot.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf

    But it is great to see SCOTUS can move quickly when required.

    9-0 as well.
    Dissents from Sotamayor, Kagan, and Jackson on quite a few parts.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,208
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @JosiasJessop

    “The idea of jetting halfway across the world to stay for a few days in an 'eco' lodge is hilariously ridiculous.”

    Why? I’m having a lovely time. It’s beautiful



    Come and join me in by the waterfall for a cup of excellent Malbec. When it gets too hot you can swim in the river. Its idyllic

    What’s wrong with that??

    Red wine in the tropics is all wrong. You should stick to the local beer. And spirits if you must.
    Dude, I’m about to take one of the strongest hallucinogens known to man with one of its most famous exponents, surrounded by a team of world class scientists (and a film crew) investigating its extraordinary, possibly paradigm-changing entheogenic qualities, I don’t need a lecture on my choice of more minor intoxicants. But thanks anyway
    You're disrespecting the medicine. No good will come of this.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,586
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    mwadams said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So YouGov are offering me 30 points a week if I will share my browsing history once a week with them.........

    Are YouGov prepared for the consequences?
    I am about to order the M3 Macbook Air that was announced today which means in a few weeks time I have to hand my old Macbook to the Apple store staff to transfer things across.
    You really don’t - you can do it yourself by answering about 5 questions and leaving the computers to it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    No, that was the Brexiteers who said it would be the easiest deal in history/could be sorted out in an afternoon.
    They were essentially right. The difficult bit was managing the politics of it rather than the deal itself.
    Were they fuck.

    My job now requires about 40% more paperwork thanks to Brexit and costs are up to as well.

    Explain to me why that is easy?
    You're earning more and complaining ?

    Try care homes for a living you might appreciate how lucky you are.
    But it is more aggro for the firm, lucky for the UK financial services isn't the biggest contributor to the Exchequer.
    Well that gives us all some satisfaction that you have to do some work for your overegged salaries instead of flitting about on political blogs.

    Jezza for Tory leader.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    file:///C:/Users/Sean/Downloads/Deltapoll-240304_trackers.pdf

    Slightly better news for the Conservatives with Deltapoll

    Labour 41%,
    Con 27%
    Lib Dem 9%
    Reform 12%.

    Lab lead by 42% to 31% on forced choice.

    There's a big swing away from LLG in that poll

    https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1764648137061286249?s=20

    Reform are on 12%. It's LLG 56%, RefCon 39%. By far the best right wing showing for ages.

    All fieldwork post-Rochdale.
    In terms of Lab v Con it's really a reversion to the mean, but the Reform vote is very high.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    mwadams said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So YouGov are offering me 30 points a week if I will share my browsing history once a week with them.........

    Are YouGov prepared for the consequences?
    I am about to order the M3 Macbook Air that was announced today which means in a few weeks time I have to hand my old Macbook to the Apple store staff to transfer things across.
    You really don’t - you can do it yourself by answering about 5 questions and leaving the computers to it.
    I know, it is part of the part-ex deal I've got on the order.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,231
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @JosiasJessop

    “The idea of jetting halfway across the world to stay for a few days in an 'eco' lodge is hilariously ridiculous.”

    Why? I’m having a lovely time. It’s beautiful



    Come and join me in by the waterfall for a cup of excellent Malbec. When it gets too hot you can swim in the river. Its idyllic

    What’s wrong with that??

    Red wine in the tropics is all wrong. You should stick to the local beer. And spirits if you must.
    Dude, I’m about to take one of the strongest hallucinogens known to man with one of its most famous exponents, surrounded by a team of world class scientists (and a film crew) investigating its extraordinary, possibly paradigm-changing entheogenic qualities, I don’t need a lecture on my choice of more minor intoxicants. But thanks anyway
    The thing is you have taken the trouble to adventurously get to a sublimely beautiful tropical place replete with wildlife and largely away from humans yet you are about to take mind-altering drugs. If I were brave enough to do that (I'm not) I'd do it at home I think.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,919
    edited March 4
    I am skim reading the judgment but it looks to me like SCOTUS have punted - they’ve not ruled on Trumps eligibility, just that Colorado can’t deny him ballot access.

    I thought they might do this - a “wait and see if he’s elected” ruling.

    Edit: I have just gotten to the bit where essentially they reserve the power to Congress to execute it. So nope. That’s it.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,669
    Gardenwalker said:

    I agree with @Alanbrooke.

    Cameron was guilty of hubristic insouciance.
    No-one with an ounce of sense would have set up the Brexit referendum in the way he did.

    Having said that, no Tory leader from Major onwards has managed to figure out a stable accommodation with Euroscepticism (now effectively indistinguishable from national populism). Expulsion, as recommended above, is daft.

    Neither expulsion nor extinction were the right (general) action. Party coalitions are maintained by the moderate use of stick and carrot, and Cameron was in the unique position of having a working majority, a rudderless Labour party and neutralised LD threat. He read the wrong thing into that and tried to "deal with" a critical (if unwelcome to him) part of the Tory coalition "once and for all".

    Muddling on was (as so often in politics) the better choice.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Oh god we're not here again, are we? As it stood there were around 4m people (12% of the electorate) who wanted a Brexit referendum and used their democratic welly to bring it about. Exactly as it should be. Had Dave not agreed to the referendum there is every chance that the Cons wouldn't have won the GE. Dave did it for this reason. It's simple (and effective) politics.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,568
    JosiasJessop said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @JosiasJessop

    “The idea of jetting halfway across the world to stay for a few days in an 'eco' lodge is hilariously ridiculous.”

    Why? I’m having a lovely time. It’s beautiful



    Come and join me in by the waterfall for a cup of excellent Malbec. When it gets too hot you can swim in the river. Its idyllic

    What’s wrong with that??

    I'll do that after you join me on a marathon. ;)

    It's the 'eco' part of it that I'm laughing at. There's f-all 'eco' about it.
    Actually I agree with that. “Eco” is just a trendy prefix that any slightly rough edged rustic hotel attaches to its name and then they can add 20-30% to the price

    Also this place doesn’t need trendy prefixes. It is genuinely incredible

    People are gathering here from all over the world for this ceremony. European artists, tech bros, bohemian property moguls, some serious scientists, Dutch movie directors

    Right now as I sit by the river I can hear a New York drama dude discussing his experimental use of new age MDMA with a tribal elder right behind me

    Bonkers

    I confess I am slightly apprehensive about the yage
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    Stocky said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @JosiasJessop

    “The idea of jetting halfway across the world to stay for a few days in an 'eco' lodge is hilariously ridiculous.”

    Why? I’m having a lovely time. It’s beautiful



    Come and join me in by the waterfall for a cup of excellent Malbec. When it gets too hot you can swim in the river. Its idyllic

    What’s wrong with that??

    I'll do that after you join me on a marathon. ;)

    It's the 'eco' part of it that I'm laughing at. There's f-all 'eco' about it.
    What if they were called rustic wildlife observation lodges? That's basically what they are.
    The wildlife gathers to watch Leon take hallucinogenic drugs?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,669
    TOPPING said:

    Oh god we're not here again, are we? As it stood there were around 4m people (12% of the electorate) who wanted a Brexit referendum and used their democratic welly to bring it about. Exactly as it should be. Had Dave not agreed to the referendum there is every chance that the Cons wouldn't have won the GE. Dave did it for this reason. It's simple (and effective) politics.

    I don't think he meant to win, did he? I thought that was another of those unfortunate surprises, the LDs being easier bedfellows for him than the 4m voters he didn't like at all.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    LOL Galloway threatening to de-seat Angela Rayner
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    eek said:

    Supreme Court says Trump is still on the ballot https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf

    The decision is not a surprise.
    The majority going on unnecessarily to rewrite the law regarding federal powers is the level of pitiful jurisprudence we've come to expect of them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,568
    Stocky said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @JosiasJessop

    “The idea of jetting halfway across the world to stay for a few days in an 'eco' lodge is hilariously ridiculous.”

    Why? I’m having a lovely time. It’s beautiful



    Come and join me in by the waterfall for a cup of excellent Malbec. When it gets too hot you can swim in the river. Its idyllic

    What’s wrong with that??

    Red wine in the tropics is all wrong. You should stick to the local beer. And spirits if you must.
    Dude, I’m about to take one of the strongest hallucinogens known to man with one of its most famous exponents, surrounded by a team of world class scientists (and a film crew) investigating its extraordinary, possibly paradigm-changing entheogenic qualities, I don’t need a lecture on my choice of more minor intoxicants. But thanks anyway
    The thing is you have taken the trouble to adventurously get to a sublimely beautiful tropical place replete with wildlife and largely away from humans yet you are about to take mind-altering drugs. If I were brave enough to do that (I'm not) I'd do it at home I think.
    We’re all here FOR the drugs

    This place (I shan’t name it) now basically just does this. Spirit quests. Sun dances. Ayahuasca ceremonies

    It attracts the best ayahuesqueros and the people that run it are famous for it. You could come here for an “ordinary” holiday but few do (it is very remote) and the owner told me yesterday that they are now shifting entirely to this spiritual experientialism

    It’s very trendy and also notably profitable. People pay big money for this
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    ,
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SCOTUS rules Trump wrongly removed from the Colorado ballot.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf

    But it is great to see SCOTUS can move quickly when required.

    9-0 as well.
    Dissents from Sotamayor, Kagan, and Jackson on quite a few parts.
    And ACB.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,167
    JosiasJessop said:

    I remember when we all talked about 30% being the hard bottom of Conservative party polling...

    Their hard bottoms must be twitching these days.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,650
    mwadams said:

    Scott_xP said:

    mwadams said:

    As a broadly Europhile ex-Tory, I have to agree with @Alanbrooke - it was Cameron who destroyed the Tories by failing to understand what it was that the eurosceptics represented, and to whom.

    Nah.

    His mistake was appeasing them.

    He should have expelled them.
    I don't disagree that this was the failure of action.
    But the failure of thinking behind that was a belief that he was clever enough to kill them off for a generation without understanding why that policy wouldn't work.
    Hubris. The same thing that led Blair to Iraq. Too much success is bad for a person unless they have the (rare) maturity and insight to ascribe most of it to chance.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,067
    mwadams said:

    Scott_xP said:

    mwadams said:

    As a broadly Europhile ex-Tory, I have to agree with @Alanbrooke - it was Cameron who destroyed the Tories by failing to understand what it was that the eurosceptics represented, and to whom.

    Nah.

    His mistake was appeasing them.

    He should have expelled them.
    I don't disagree that this was the failure of action.
    But the failure of thinking behind that was a belief that he was clever enough to kill them off for a generation without understanding why that policy wouldn't work.
    This is what was so stupid. Even if Remain had won 60%, the Leavers weren't going to say "Oh well, never mind, we shall never mention the EU ever again". They'd have carried on exactly as before.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,282
    CatMan said:

    mwadams said:

    Scott_xP said:

    mwadams said:

    As a broadly Europhile ex-Tory, I have to agree with @Alanbrooke - it was Cameron who destroyed the Tories by failing to understand what it was that the eurosceptics represented, and to whom.

    Nah.

    His mistake was appeasing them.

    He should have expelled them.
    I don't disagree that this was the failure of action.
    But the failure of thinking behind that was a belief that he was clever enough to kill them off for a generation without understanding why that policy wouldn't work.
    This is what was so stupid. Even if Remain had won 60%, the Leavers weren't going to say "Oh well, never mind, we shall never mention the EU ever again". They'd have carried on exactly as before.
    The theory must have been that having the bulk of the three main parties all campaigning for Remain would deliver a 70-30 win.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    @jburnmurdoch

    As I said to someone yesterday, we’re moving towards the kind of territory where the Tories could come not second but third.

    Lib Dems would be the leader of the opposition, Tories increasingly peripheral.




    If Richi doesn't go early, the decision will be removed from him...
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,669
    CatMan said:

    mwadams said:

    Scott_xP said:

    mwadams said:

    As a broadly Europhile ex-Tory, I have to agree with @Alanbrooke - it was Cameron who destroyed the Tories by failing to understand what it was that the eurosceptics represented, and to whom.

    Nah.

    His mistake was appeasing them.

    He should have expelled them.
    I don't disagree that this was the failure of action.
    But the failure of thinking behind that was a belief that he was clever enough to kill them off for a generation without understanding why that policy wouldn't work.
    This is what was so stupid. Even if Remain had won 60%, the Leavers weren't going to say "Oh well, never mind, we shall never mention the EU ever again". They'd have carried on exactly as before.
    Exactly - this is where I agree with @TOPPING below - there was no clever solution.

    The real question is how many of the 4 million voters he talks about would 'kicking the can down the road' have lost to the Tories. Enough to have lost to Ed Milliband's Labour? My guess is 'no', but YMMV. And what impact would that have had come 2019/2020?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,568
    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @JosiasJessop

    “The idea of jetting halfway across the world to stay for a few days in an 'eco' lodge is hilariously ridiculous.”

    Why? I’m having a lovely time. It’s beautiful



    Come and join me in by the waterfall for a cup of excellent Malbec. When it gets too hot you can swim in the river. Its idyllic

    What’s wrong with that??

    Red wine in the tropics is all wrong. You should stick to the local beer. And spirits if you must.
    Dude, I’m about to take one of the strongest hallucinogens known to man with one of its most famous exponents, surrounded by a team of world class scientists (and a film crew) investigating its extraordinary, possibly paradigm-changing entheogenic qualities, I don’t need a lecture on my choice of more minor intoxicants. But thanks anyway
    You're disrespecting the medicine. No good will come of this.
    I have taken advice from Kunaq the ayahuasquero himself. I’m doing a short dieta

    He said a cup of calming red wine is not a problem. No beer or spirits on the day tho. No red meat. No sex (I wish: there’s a beautiful English costume designer here, who keeps swimming in the waterfall, sigh).

    Oh god she’s swimming again. I may have to pretend to read my simon bolivar biography
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    Alanbrooke said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Lord Cameron - chortle.

    The man who wrecked the conservatives.

    Nah, that's the Europhobes. They've destroyed they party several times, and replaced competent leaders with purists.

    And they're still there, like a turd that won't flush.
    Cameron just couldnt do party management, there were huge swathes of the country he just didnt understand.
    The good burghers of Jaywick and Clapton?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,468
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SCOTUS rules Trump wrongly removed from the Colorado ballot.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf

    But it is great to see SCOTUS can move quickly when required.

    OK, so as I understand that, they duck the question of whether Trump is disqualified, by ruling that whether he is or is not cannot be up to individual States, so attempts by States to kick him off the ballot fail. Yes?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,231
    Leon said:

    kamski said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @JosiasJessop

    “The idea of jetting halfway across the world to stay for a few days in an 'eco' lodge is hilariously ridiculous.”

    Why? I’m having a lovely time. It’s beautiful



    Come and join me in by the waterfall for a cup of excellent Malbec. When it gets too hot you can swim in the river. Its idyllic

    What’s wrong with that??

    Red wine in the tropics is all wrong. You should stick to the local beer. And spirits if you must.
    Dude, I’m about to take one of the strongest hallucinogens known to man with one of its most famous exponents, surrounded by a team of world class scientists (and a film crew) investigating its extraordinary, possibly paradigm-changing entheogenic qualities, I don’t need a lecture on my choice of more minor intoxicants. But thanks anyway
    You're disrespecting the medicine. No good will come of this.
    I have taken advice from Kunaq the ayahuasquero himself. I’m doing a short dieta

    He said a cup of calming red wine is not a problem. No beer or spirits on the day tho. No red meat. No sex (I wish: there’s a beautiful English costume designer here, who keeps swimming in the waterfall, sigh).

    Oh god she’s swimming again. I may have to pretend to read my simon bolivar biography
    Time for one of your holiday pics? Hide behind a leaf and zoom in or something.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,919
    Scott_xP said:

    @jburnmurdoch

    As I said to someone yesterday, we’re moving towards the kind of territory where the Tories could come not second but third.

    Lib Dems would be the leader of the opposition, Tories increasingly peripheral.




    If Richi doesn't go early, the decision will be removed from him...

    The Lib Dem’s won’t come second on vote count. If the Tories collapse to third or lower it will be because Reform has supplanted them.

    I suppose that theoretically there is an outcome where the LDs come second on seat count but I wouldn’t count on it.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,766
    Looks like May 2nd is out the window on those numbers.

    It'll have to be January. Tumour King is wowing the Antipodeans in October with his unique brand of testy incoherence and then we are into Season 2 of The Trump Show and then it's Christmas.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,282
    mwadams said:

    CatMan said:

    mwadams said:

    Scott_xP said:

    mwadams said:

    As a broadly Europhile ex-Tory, I have to agree with @Alanbrooke - it was Cameron who destroyed the Tories by failing to understand what it was that the eurosceptics represented, and to whom.

    Nah.

    His mistake was appeasing them.

    He should have expelled them.
    I don't disagree that this was the failure of action.
    But the failure of thinking behind that was a belief that he was clever enough to kill them off for a generation without understanding why that policy wouldn't work.
    This is what was so stupid. Even if Remain had won 60%, the Leavers weren't going to say "Oh well, never mind, we shall never mention the EU ever again". They'd have carried on exactly as before.
    Exactly - this is where I agree with @TOPPING below - there was no clever solution.

    The real question is how many of the 4 million voters he talks about would 'kicking the can down the road' have lost to the Tories. Enough to have lost to Ed Milliband's Labour? My guess is 'no', but YMMV. And what impact would that have had come 2019/2020?
    I've made this point before but if only Cameron had come down on the side of Leave and said that his deal just wasn't good enough, then it would have avoided most of the political problems, both for him and the country. He would have been ideally placed to carry on as PM and negotiate either a soft Brexit or genuinely reformed membership terms.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,919
    edited March 4
    bondegezou said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SCOTUS rules Trump wrongly removed from the Colorado ballot.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf

    But it is great to see SCOTUS can move quickly when required.

    OK, so as I understand that, they duck the question of whether Trump is disqualified, by ruling that whether he is or is not cannot be up to individual States, so attempts by States to kick him off the ballot fail. Yes?
    Yes but unless I’ve misread it the majority have also said that section 3 is not self executing i.e Congress is the one that needs to decide if someone is eligible or not first. So essentially the chances of Trump being held ineligible are pretty much zero.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Perhaps MarqueeMark, Casino Royale, and HYUFD would like to explain why they felt so strongly that this useless article was the key to restoring the party's electoral fortunes.

    Perhaps everyone attacking the Tory membership 'loonies' and their role in leadership elections should apologise, given that clearly they realised that he was a completely empty suit in the hustings and voted as wisely as possible given the choice that they were presented with by MPs.

    I would just say Truss was worse, much worse, and handed labour the biggest gift on fiscal probity that could have had on their wildest dreams, far far worse than ' there is no money'

    And of course in the last week she has been making an utter fool of herself in the USv
    But yet at her polling nadir, she polled better than Sunak is now, and it's almost impossible to conceive of a situation whereby the passage of time would not have improved her polling still further.
    You have a limited imagination, then.
    Her fiscal plans have been shown by hindsight to have been entirely affordable. Had her platform been implemented, we'd have had no CT rise, and a raft of policies aimed at tackling inflation at its root cause by increasing domestic supply of energy and food. I think it very unlikely we'd have dipped into recession, and that would have improved the public finances, which are massively skewed by growth or lack of it.
    Who by? Can you post a link? Thanks!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,650
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Perhaps MarqueeMark, Casino Royale, and HYUFD would like to explain why they felt so strongly that this useless article was the key to restoring the party's electoral fortunes.

    Perhaps everyone attacking the Tory membership 'loonies' and their role in leadership elections should apologise, given that clearly they realised that he was a completely empty suit in the hustings and voted as wisely as possible given the choice that they were presented with by MPs.

    I would just say Truss was worse, much worse, and handed labour the biggest gift on fiscal probity that could have had on their wildest dreams, far far worse than ' there is no money'

    And of course in the last week she has been making an utter fool of herself in the USv
    But yet at her polling nadir, she polled better than Sunak is now, and it's almost impossible to conceive of a situation whereby the passage of time would not have improved her polling still further.
    You have a limited imagination, then.
    Her fiscal plans have been shown by hindsight to have been entirely affordable. Had her platform been implemented, we'd have had no CT rise, and a raft of policies aimed at tackling inflation at its root cause by increasing domestic supply of energy and food. I think it very unlikely we'd have dipped into recession, and that would have improved the public finances, which are massively skewed by growth or lack of it.
    She's assuming the glamour of the rock star died young in your mind, isn't she?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,109
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    mwadams said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So YouGov are offering me 30 points a week if I will share my browsing history once a week with them.........

    Are YouGov prepared for the consequences?
    I am about to order the M3 Macbook Air that was announced today which means in a few weeks time I have to hand my old Macbook to the Apple store staff to transfer things across.
    You mean you don’t use iCloud backup?

    I encrypt anything I want confidential and backup to iCloud, and a NAS (which mirrors to another storage provider).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    mwadams said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So YouGov are offering me 30 points a week if I will share my browsing history once a week with them.........

    Are YouGov prepared for the consequences?
    I am about to order the M3 Macbook Air that was announced today which means in a few weeks time I have to hand my old Macbook to the Apple store staff to transfer things across.
    You mean you don’t use iCloud backup?

    I encrypt anything I want confidential and backup to iCloud, and a NAS (which mirrors to another storage provider).
    I do.

    But I have a lot of video recordings on there.

    Family stuff, usually in 4K.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    Scott_xP said:

    mwadams said:

    As a broadly Europhile ex-Tory, I have to agree with @Alanbrooke - it was Cameron who destroyed the Tories by failing to understand what it was that the eurosceptics represented, and to whom.

    Nah.

    His mistake was appeasing them.

    He should have expelled them.
    Over 60% of Conservative voters voted Leave, and almost 45% of the parliamentary party.

    Such a policy would have reduced them to a rump.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,177
    Nigelb said:

    ,

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SCOTUS rules Trump wrongly removed from the Colorado ballot.

    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf

    But it is great to see SCOTUS can move quickly when required.

    9-0 as well.
    Dissents from Sotamayor, Kagan, and Jackson on quite a few parts.
    And ACB.
    There is one interesting part of the judgment (though given the limited amount of time before the election, it's probably moot anyway).

    ...That law made engaging in insurrection or rebellion, among other acts, a federal crime punishable by disqualification from holding office under the United States. See §§2, 3, 12 Stat. 590. A successor to those provisions remains on the books today. See 18 U. S. C. §2383...

    Probably not an invitation to charge Trump under 18 U.S. Code § 2383 - Rebellion or insurrection, but it could be read as that.
    https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2383#
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,919
    edited March 4
    Dura_Ace said:

    Looks like May 2nd is out the window on those numbers.

    It'll have to be January. Tumour King is wowing the Antipodeans in October with his unique brand of testy incoherence and then we are into Season 2 of The Trump Show and then it's Christmas.

    October surely not out of the question now as it’s highly questionable KCIII will be undertaking international travel for the foreseeable, successful treatment or no.
This discussion has been closed.