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The numbers that should worry Trump – politicalbetting.com

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831

    May 3rd

    (Or some time in October/November)
    Not January 2025?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,252
    pigeon said:

    I think the Government is being forced to bail because Woking has absolutely no chance of ever restructuring and paying off debts of that size, given its tiny revenue base, and it has statutory obligations that it has to perform.

    In the long run there will need to be complete reform of local authority finance, before most of the councils in the land go tits up, but the Tories doubtless view bequeathing that (extremely expensive) hot potato to Labour as one of the compensations of going into Opposition.
    With all due respect:

    Bullshit.

    It is those people who lent to Woking who should be taking the hit. They lent to a Council that cannot repay its debts. (And, inevitably, it is also the people of Woking who should also bear the consequence through higher Council Tax and worse services.)

    But bailing out the council, gives the green light to every council, and every lender, that you can borrow and spend, and central government will simply bail you out.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831

    RTÉ were suggesting that voting was particularly slow. There might not be many votes to count.
    The turnout for this has got to be abysmal. With so many awful candidates on display I'd probably stay at home myself!
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,010

    Perhaps Woking could insert "e" between "k" and "i" in order to obtain support & sustenance from The Blog?
    As a Wokingian (who has even played cricket with Jonathan Lord for parliament). I'd be very surprised if it didn't go Lib Dem at the GE. It was already shifting that way - a combination of London overspill and it being Remain leaning but Tory. But the council thing and the national desire to 'get the bar stewards out' mean it should be well in play, maybe even a comfortable LD gain if the Tories have a poor night.

    We're also losing some of the leafier, rural bits of the constituency to Surrey Heath. Which in theory were more Tory but who knows these days.

    Plus, the Lib Dems have a pretty strong candidate. Local. Hugely engaged, and on his third run having gradually grown his vote. Plus a small but significant Labour vote to squeeze - something that might be easier given events in Gaza, as historically it's been concentrated in the more heavily Muslim Sheerwater and Maybury area.

    So yeah, I'm not sure Lord will hang on.

    The only spanner in the works is that the Lib Dems have now taken over the Tory council thanks to wipeouts at the past two locals. Meaning they are having to take some of the nasty decisions to clean up the mess made by the previous Tory administration. It might not be fair, but their councillors are the ones now having to consult on cuts and put up tax - so that might dent chances among those who weren't paying as much attention to who caused the financial mess.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    GIN1138 said:

    Not January 2025?
    If so, I suspect it will be the last GE the Conservative Party ever fights.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    As a revolting colonial, was rather startled UNTIL recalling that "torch" is what Brits call a flashlight!

    On this side of the Atlantic (and Pacific) a torch is a torch, as in "blowtorch".

    BTW, "solon" is old-school American journalese for lawmaker.
    Over here, Solon is the very wise codifier of the Athenian constitution. I had to stop and reread the expression "Republican solons" when I realised it was being used in the present tense, and it still jars.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    edited February 2024
    I would actually have considered voting Conservative in Rochdale. Least worst, etc... But didn't the candidate give and go on holiday half way through the campaign? 😂

    So stay at home it would have been if I'd had a vote.
  • GIN1138 said:

    I would actually have considered voting Conservative in Rochdale. Least worst, etc... But didn't the candidate give and go on holiday half way through the campaign? 😂

    So stay at home it would have been if I'd had a vote.

    I would have voted Labour/Azhar Ali, Galloway needs to be stopped.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,252

    Not sure sure IF this has been noted/discussed on PB, but last week's ruling by Alabama state supreme court that embryos are people too, has really got the snakes stirred up.

    Specifically, Republican solons and their mouthpieces in Montgomery AND Washington, DC rushing to mitigate (to put it mildly) this ruling which shuts down (ditto) IVF clinics for women wanting to bear children despite fertility issues.

    https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2024/the-alabama-supreme-courts-ruling-on-frozen-embryos

    "The Alabama Supreme Court issued a ruling on February 16 declaring that embryos created through in vitro fertilization (IVF) should be considered children. Several of the state’s IVF clinics have since paused services, and lawmakers, doctors, and patients are raising concerns about the far-ranging impacts of the ruling on health care, including reproductive technology."

    One of the first off the bat was Alabama US Sen. "Coach" Tommy Tuberville (the thinking-man's Hershel Walker) the same guy who held up US military appointments for months (or was it years?) to burnish his own anti-abortion credentials.

    Seems that while crazed Catholics mostly concur (at least in the breach) with the ruling, which concurs with current church doctrine, evangelical Protestants - much thicker on the ground in most of Alabama - are split on the issue.

    Besides GOPers legislators & congresspeople falling over themselves trying to square this circle, the real potential political impact for 2024 appear to be, further making the Democratic case that the Republican Party is a standing menace to reproductive freedom of choice - NOT just abortion, but birth control, in either direction.

    IF this is unpopular in Alabama, just imagine how it poorly it's playing in Peoria.

    Oh, the ramifications of treating every embryo as a child are enormous.

    It not only means no IVF, but it also means that every pregnant smoker, alcoholic or drug taker is almost certainly guilty of assault on their unborn child.

    It means, if we're going to be consistent here, that every miscarriage needs to be investigated, and there would need to be an autopsy after each one to confirm that the causes were entirely natural.

    And so on and so on.
  • I am ready, man! Ready to get it on :lol:
  • SKS fans please explain.

    Raynergate kicking in.

    Etc.

    Etc.
    Hunt will soon reverse this when he announces the Labour budget next week and crosses the floor.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831

    I would have voted Labour/Azhar Ali, Galloway needs to be stopped.
    You'd have voted for one antisemitic conspiracy theorist over another?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,740

    Anyone staying up for Rochdale?!

    I'm not!

    Enjoy it 👍

    You might miss out on Galloway's big moment. "Today Rochdale, tomorrow Jerusalem."
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    I remember Air India being remarkably good 30 years ago; other than that Singapore Airlines are, or at least were, decent… but they were overly fussy and weirdly prioritised seatbelt-wearing and the eating of economy class food (as if!) over sleeping.

    BA back in the day were great transatlantic in cattle class, unlimited free booze. Not so much these days.

    The American Big Two are rubbish. Cramped, seemingly deliberately unglamorous, parsimonious with the booze and pious with it. Sadly on many routes in the States they are the only carriers so you can be stuck with them for hours when transiting North America.

    Air France sound like they are bringing back the golden age of flying: glamorous and dangerous, which while undoubtedly sexier than today’s mundanity might be a niche taste.

    As for this idea of “not imbibing when airborne” as proposed by @SeaShantyIrish . LOL. I’d never fly anywhere under such a restriction. You want me to alight this tin can and sit in mid-air for hours at 30,000ft while sober? Yeah, right. I didn’t come down in
    the last shower.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,662

    Thanks, now vaguely familiar.
    Birthplace of Richard Pryor. Or that’s the only context I know it in.
  • Carnyx said:

    Over here, Solon is the very wise codifier of the Athenian constitution. I had to stop and reread the expression "Republican solons" when I realised it was being used in the present tense, and it still jars.
    Yeah, should have issued a PB irony alert.
  • 'solons'?

    (Also, I have to confess I'd never heard of Peoria. Then again, most Americans I meet have never heard of Dorset.)
    Richard Nixon was always banging on about Peoria which was seen as the centre of America.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    GIN1138 said:

    The turnout for this has got to be abysmal. With so many awful candidates on display I'd probably stay at home myself!
    I’d neatly draw a cock and balls, possibly hairy, in a blank space on the form.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,001
    Putin emulates the rat he described, cornered in the stairwell
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,185
    Andrew Neil:

    We have it on good authority that George Osborne is going around London trying to sell The Spectator to the highest bidder, on behalf of RedbirdIMI’s Jeff Zucker, an American broadcast media guy who screwed up CNN and doesn’t know anything about Britain or British media but wants to ditch the troublesome Spectator and concentrate on the Telegraph, which is what his Arab bankrollers really want. He’s their front man. Osborne doesn’t care who gets the Spectator as long as it’s a lot of money, since that will boost his fees as Zucker’s hired hand. Such a “parcel of rogues” as Robert Burns once said.

    What was that old saying about conservatives being former liberals who were mugged by reality?

    Well, what do you call a conservative whose been bought and sold by reality to the highest bidder?
  • GIN1138 said:

    You'd have voted for one antisemitic conspiracy theorist over another?
    Steady on! No room for Islamophobia either!
  • NEW THREAD

  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,010
    GIN1138 said:

    You'd have voted for one antisemitic conspiracy theorist over another?
    If between the two, there really isn't much of a choice. Ali is clearly an antisemitic idiot. But Galloway is pure evil in that way and many others besides. Plus it is very funny when the puffed up cat-bothering prat loses and throws his customary tantrum.

    But I'd have voted Lib Dem. Heck, would have campaigned for them.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,654

    I am ready, man! Ready to get it on :lol:

    I think the Shadow Chancellor may have other plans this evening.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,836

    I remember Air India being remarkably good 30 years ago; other than that Singapore Airlines are, or at least were, decent… but they were overly fussy and weirdly prioritised seatbelt-wearing and the eating of economy class food (as if!) over sleeping.

    BA back in the day were great transatlantic in cattle class, unlimited free booze. Not so much these days.

    The American Big Two are rubbish. Cramped, seemingly deliberately unglamorous, parsimonious with the booze and pious with it. Sadly on many routes in the States they are the only carriers so you can be stuck with them for hours when transiting North America.

    Air France sound like they are bringing back the golden age of flying: glamorous and dangerous, which while undoubtedly sexier than today’s mundanity might be a niche taste.

    As for this idea of “not imbibing when airborne” as proposed by @SeaShantyIrish . LOL. I’d never fly anywhere under such a restriction. You want me to alight this tin can and sit in mid-air for hours at 30,000ft while sober? Yeah, right. I didn’t come down in
    the last shower.

    The whole point of air travel is free booze.

    I’ve been on some shockingly shit flights with US carriers. The food is particularly bad. The one exception being one of two business class long haul flights on American which were fine.

    My favourites, now sadly consigned to history, were the old BA flights in the quiet top deck of the 747, seat 60k. Every time I was booked I’d go on to the app and change my seat to 60k or 60A.
  • Richard Nixon was always banging on about Peoria which was seen as the centre of America.
    In his day (and maybe still today?) Peoria, Illinois was frequently used as a test market by American advertisers, merchandisers, etc. for new products, because it's demographics mirrored the USA average.

    IIRC this has been true for quite a while, indeed in bygone days when vaudeville (American music hall) was a thing, theatrical productions often did a test-run in Peoria, before taking the show to big cities like nearby Chicago, New York, etc.

    Thus the phrase, "how will it play in Peoria?"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,486
    ydoethur said:

    Because, unfortunately, if Thames Water goes down three pension funds will go down with it.

    That's a pretty unpleasant reflection of the stupidity of the managers of certain pension funds, but it means the bastards have us over a barrel...
    Why ?
    The net cost to our economy would likely be less if we put Thames into administration.

    And the biggest of the pension funds is Canadian.


  • Carnyx said:

    Over here, Solon is the very wise codifier of the Athenian constitution. I had to stop and reread the expression "Republican solons" when I realised it was being used in the present tense, and it still jars.
    Solon also learned from the Egyptians about the Atlantis myth as mentioned in the Timaeus and Critias.
  • I think the Shadow Chancellor may have other plans this evening.
    Hey, Sandy, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Starmer Fans will protect you! Check-it-out…Independently targeting particle-beam phalanx. VWAP! Fry half a Parliamentary Constituency with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phased-plasma pulse-rifles, RPG’s. We got sonic electronic ball breakers, we got nukes, we got knives… sharp sticks... leaflets with dodgy bar charts...
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,287
    edited February 2024
    ydoethur said:

    Because, unfortunately, if Thames Water goes down three pension funds will go down with it.

    That's a pretty unpleasant reflection of the stupidity of the managers of certain pension funds, but it means the bastards have us over a barrel.

    Equally, my essential point stands. We don't actually have an abundance of water in England in particular due to inadequate storage and chronic overuse. We're only ever two dry winters away from trouble. Metering is actually a fairly easy way of helping to address the latter, even if it's hardly a panacea.
    The largest shareholder (over 30%) is a Canadian pension fund. Not sure why we should care about their poor investment decisions.

    The second largest (c.20%) is the UK university scheme, which has last reported a £7bn surplus and would be absolutely fine if it's Thames water holding was wiped out.

    The third largest (c.10%) is an Abu Dhabi investment fund.

    Of the remaining six shareholders, two are Canadian pension schemes, one is China, one is a German pension scheme, one is a private equity firm, and another looks to be BT pension scheme. The BT pension scheme deficit has halved over the last 3 years.

    There is simply no reason to bail them out 'because of pension schemes'. The impact on UK schemes is a tiny drop in the huge ocean.

    Sources:
    https://www.thameswater.co.uk/about-us/governance/our-structure
    https://www.uss.co.uk/news-and-views/latest-news/2024/01/04012024_an-update-on-our-investment-in-thames-water
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.ft.com/content/2956f0d7-dcc1-4293-bac8-6d5b79af4eb7&ved=2ahUKEwjq6I7RytGEAxWCZkEAHQzVBOkQjjh6BAg5EAE&usg=AOvVaw3LkKa-3EYNMbKQDXm8wdF4
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    Ratters said:

    The largest shareholder (over 30%) is a Canadian pension fund. Not sure why we should care about their poor investment decisions.

    The second largest (c.20%) is the UK university scheme, which has last reported a £7bn surplus and would be absolutely fine if it's Thames water holding was wiped out.

    The third largest (c.10%) is an Abu Dhabi investment fund.

    Of the remaining six shareholders, two are Canadian pension schemes, one is China, one is a German pension scheme, one is a private equity firm, and another looks to be BT pension scheme. The BT pension scheme deficit has halved over the last 3 years.

    There is simply no reason to bail them out 'because of pension schemes'. The impact on UK schemes is a tiny drop in the huge ocean.

    Sources:
    https://www.thameswater.co.uk/about-us/governance/our-structure
    https://www.uss.co.uk/news-and-views/latest-news/2024/01/04012024_an-update-on-our-investment-in-thames-water
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.ft.com/content/2956f0d7-dcc1-4293-bac8-6d5b79af4eb7&ved=2ahUKEwjq6I7RytGEAxWCZkEAHQzVBOkQjjh6BAg5EAE&usg=AOvVaw3LkKa-3EYNMbKQDXm8wdF4
    Even if they were UK pensions schemes, they should not be bailed out. Investment in equities means accepting risk.

    The shareholders are also responsible for approving accounts and executive appointments at the AGM. They approved these decisions.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    In his day (and maybe still today?) Peoria, Illinois was frequently used as a test market by American advertisers, merchandisers, etc. for new products, because it's demographics mirrored the USA average.

    IIRC this has been true for quite a while, indeed in bygone days when vaudeville (American music hall) was a thing, theatrical productions often did a test-run in Peoria, before taking the show to big cities like nearby Chicago, New York, etc.

    Thus the phrase, "how will it play in Peoria?"
    Isn't it more metaphorical, like "the man on the Clapham omnibus". Judges don't really conduct vox pops on public transport in South London in order to decide points of law.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 856
    edited February 2024
    Am not bothering to stay up for Rochdale but I've stuck a small amount (£100) on Labour at these odds (best price was 3 and you'll get filled there at present but my average worse as I started doing it a few minutes too soon), against what I think my sober judgement would be. I assume the spike is because of the large number of postal votes which are rather suspicious from an insular community POV. But of course that insular community may just as well have been voting Ali as Galloway.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    Leon said:

    I warn you, it doesn't go away


    https://app.suno.ai/song/91270dcb-ef95-45f7-b6d2-acc5c3bb8a12
    Thanks.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,178

    Not sure sure IF this has been noted/discussed on PB, but last week's ruling by Alabama state supreme court that embryos are people too, has really got the snakes stirred up.

    Specifically, Republican solons and their mouthpieces in Montgomery AND Washington, DC rushing to mitigate (to put it mildly) this ruling which shuts down (ditto) IVF clinics for women wanting to bear children despite fertility issues.

    https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2024/the-alabama-supreme-courts-ruling-on-frozen-embryos

    "The Alabama Supreme Court issued a ruling on February 16 declaring that embryos created through in vitro fertilization (IVF) should be considered children. Several of the state’s IVF clinics have since paused services, and lawmakers, doctors, and patients are raising concerns about the far-ranging impacts of the ruling on health care, including reproductive technology."

    One of the first off the bat was Alabama US Sen. "Coach" Tommy Tuberville (the thinking-man's Hershel Walker) the same guy who held up US military appointments for months (or was it years?) to burnish his own anti-abortion credentials.

    Seems that while crazed Catholics mostly concur (at least in the breach) with the ruling, which concurs with current church doctrine, evangelical Protestants - much thicker on the ground in most of Alabama - are split on the issue.

    Besides GOPers legislators & congresspeople falling over themselves trying to square this circle, the real potential political impact for 2024 appear to be, further making the Democratic case that the Republican Party is a standing menace to reproductive freedom of choice - NOT just abortion, but birth control, in either direction.

    IF this is unpopular in Alabama, just imagine how it poorly it's playing in Peoria.

    The POTUS election looks like this:

    ...Biden is pro-trans... "Boo! Vote Trump"
    ...But Trump is anti-abortion...: "Boo! Vote Biden"
    ...But Biden is pro-Israel... "Boo! Vote Trump"
    ...But Trump is anti-IVF... "Boo! Vote Biden"
    ...But Biden is anti-Gaza... "Boo! Vote Trump"
    ...But Trump is a crook... "Boo! Vote Biden"
    ...But Biden is senile... "Boo! Vote Trump"

    I haven't got a clue who is going to win. And I have to bet on it. This is going to be a very scary election... :(
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,178
    edited February 2024
    ...
  • viewcode said:

    ...

    ... --- ...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,554
    edited February 2024
    <

    For @MattW -
    Windows actually comes with a programme that will di what you want (but you have to dig a little): Photos Legacy.

    Follow the instructions here: https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/what-is-photos-legacy-61255007-a189-4a02-8193-6ba18e5f96d3

    You can create and insert title slides, clip videos, stitch clips together, add soundtracks, etc.

    Thanks.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,554
    edited February 2024

    It's not very easy to check your water meter regularly, at least it's not easy to check ours: we'd have to go out into the road, lift a cover for which we don;'t have the right tool and peer into a hole to a meter that is often underwater due, ironically, to a natural spring that exits there.
    I use a thing called a SureStop, which is a controller for your water supply like a light switch. It is an air switch, and I normally fit it inside a cupboard or above the worktop.

    It makes it far easier to switch it off even each time you leave the house - but normally for me when away overnight, just in case of a leak. It doesn't address the consequences, but protects most of your system on the dwelling side of the meter - depending where the meter is, and limits damage or the amount of water lost if eg an internal pipe freezes.

This discussion has been closed.