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The numbers that should worry Trump – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,736
edited March 12 in General
imageThe numbers that should worry Trump – politicalbetting.com

Mike Smithson

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  • Options
    Trumpland delenda est.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,194

    Trumpland delenda est.

    Glad to see someone knows how to decline according to (implied) gender.
  • Options
    Second like Galloway
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,907

    Second like Galloway

    Third after a recount
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816

    Second like Galloway

    Trump's chances going south, like Galloway on a map of Scotland.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700
    Is this why Haley is running?

    So she can get Republican voters used to the idea of voting against Trump, and so that she can help to stop Trump winning in the general?
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,112
    I’ve seen these types of polls before . They will find a way to justify voting for Trump.
  • Options

    Trumpland delenda est.

    In the King's, please!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    Albeit a lot of Haley voters are Independents not Republicans.

    However Trump did win Independents in 2016 but lost them in 2020 so where they go could be crucial if most Haley voters vote Biden or stay home in November
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,870

    Is this why Haley is running?

    So she can get Republican voters used to the idea of voting against Trump, and so that she can help to stop Trump winning in the general?

    I think she's staying in the race in case the party decides to kick Trump off the ballot if he is convicted and she'd be the only official candidate left? Or she just really believes that Trump is beyond the pale (doubtful).
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    edited February 29
    I wonder what Haley is going to say when Trump is the nominee (assuming this happens). Standard endorsement, lukewarm endorsement or no endorsement?
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,736
    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    I had to convert that to kgs, but when I did I was impressed, bearing in mind by your own account you weren't spectacularly overweight. Here is hoping you can keep it off. I know I always fail. I only usually manage a maximum of 8kg loss at a time and could do with a little more.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    148grss said:

    Is this why Haley is running?

    So she can get Republican voters used to the idea of voting against Trump, and so that she can help to stop Trump winning in the general?

    I think she's staying in the race in case the party decides to kick Trump off the ballot if he is convicted and she'd be the only official candidate left? Or she just really believes that Trump is beyond the pale (doubtful).
    Hard to say - she is certainly doubling down on Never Trump Republicanism.

    She has completely burnt all possible bridges to the MAGA types.

    So she either believes in her stated caused or has faked it to the point of no return.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    kinabalu said:

    I wonder what Haley is going to say when Trump is the nominee (assuming this happens). Standard endorsement, lukewarm endorsement or no endorsement?

    No endorsement, hope he loses and run again in 2028
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited February 29
    148grss said:

    Is this why Haley is running?

    So she can get Republican voters used to the idea of voting against Trump, and so that she can help to stop Trump winning in the general?

    I think she's staying in the race in case the party decides to kick Trump off the ballot if he is convicted and she'd be the only official candidate left? Or she just really believes that Trump is beyond the pale (doubtful).
    If Trump is convicted in his March Stormy Daniels falsified records case he could be in jail by the time of the GOP convention in July yet having already won a majority of delegates. However by staying in the race Haley will have won delegates too and hope to convince some Trump delegates to defect to her to avoid a GOP nominee running his campaign from his prison cell
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,543
    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    A tragic loss for the local British Heart Foundation though...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    Blimey, that's a serious amount to shift. Well done.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,816
    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    35 pounds? Did you lose a leg?
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,736
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Is this why Haley is running?

    So she can get Republican voters used to the idea of voting against Trump, and so that she can help to stop Trump winning in the general?

    I think she's staying in the race in case the party decides to kick Trump off the ballot if he is convicted and she'd be the only official candidate left? Or she just really believes that Trump is beyond the pale (doubtful).
    If Trump is convicted in his March Stormy Daniels falsified records case he could be in jail by the time of the GOP convention in July yet having already won a majority of delegates. However by staying in the race Haley will have won delegates too and hope to convince some Trump delegates to defect to her to avoid a GOP nominee running his campaign from his prison cell
    My understanding is that for a first offence it is not normal to go to jail (sadly) in these type of cases.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    35 pounds? Did you lose a leg?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utdW5A_9OBo
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    Blimey, that's a serious amount to shift. Well done.
    It wasn't easy. It was bloody dull, in fact. Lots of fasting, and I halved my booze intake

    But I did it
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,959
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Is this why Haley is running?

    So she can get Republican voters used to the idea of voting against Trump, and so that she can help to stop Trump winning in the general?

    I think she's staying in the race in case the party decides to kick Trump off the ballot if he is convicted and she'd be the only official candidate left? Or she just really believes that Trump is beyond the pale (doubtful).
    If Trump is convicted in his March Stormy Daniels falsified records case he could be in jail by the time of the GOP convention in July yet having already won a majority of delegates. However by staying in the race Haley will have won delegates too and hope to convince some Trump delegates to defect to her to avoid a GOP nominee running his campaign from his prison cell
    My understanding is that for a first offence it is not normal to go to jail (sadly) in these type of cases.
    So they typically go to jail (cheerfully)?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,607
    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    Blimey, that's a serious amount to shift. Well done.
    It wasn't easy. It was bloody dull, in fact. Lots of fasting, and I halved my booze intake

    But I did it
    Congrats. Two and a half stone (in old money) - over what time period was this.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    I had to convert that to kgs, but when I did I was impressed, bearing in mind by your own account you weren't spectacularly overweight. Here is hoping you can keep it off. I know I always fail. I only usually manage a maximum of 8kg loss at a time and could do with a little more.
    No, this time I WAS seriously overweight, as the doc told me in no uncertain terms

    In BMI terms, I was a few pounds from "obese"

    Ugh!

    I still need to lose a couple more kg but the worst is very much over
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    Blimey, that's a serious amount to shift. Well done.
    It wasn't easy. It was bloody dull, in fact. Lots of fasting, and I halved my booze intake

    But I did it
    Congrats. Two and a half stone (in old money) - over what time period was this.
    Nearly 3 months
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,743
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Is this why Haley is running?

    So she can get Republican voters used to the idea of voting against Trump, and so that she can help to stop Trump winning in the general?

    I think she's staying in the race in case the party decides to kick Trump off the ballot if he is convicted and she'd be the only official candidate left? Or she just really believes that Trump is beyond the pale (doubtful).
    If Trump is convicted in his March Stormy Daniels falsified records case he could be in jail by the time of the GOP convention in July yet having already won a majority of delegates. However by staying in the race Haley will have won delegates too and hope to convince some Trump delegates to defect to her to avoid a GOP nominee running his campaign from his prison cell
    The comedy value which was the past Trump presidency can only be exceeded by a new tenure from a prison cell.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    Blimey, that's a serious amount to shift. Well done.
    It wasn't easy. It was bloody dull, in fact. Lots of fasting, and I halved my booze intake

    But I did it
    Congrats. Two and a half stone (in old money) - over what time period was this.
    Nearly 3 months
    That’s pretty good. The most impressive ones I’ve heard, but from a much higher base (therefore presumably easier to start with) were a German colleague who lost 8 stone - or it’s kg equivalent - in a year, and another colleague who remarkably managed to shed “the weight of Henry cooper” in 18 months.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,324
    edited February 29
    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    Have you had a liver function count since your scare?

    Edit to add: I've been on a similar journey to you, albeit my liver function was only just outside the normal range. I've cut out almost all alcohol (just a single glass of whisky in the whole of the February), upped my exercise, and lost 8kg. Mostly - except today - been feeling pretty good.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    edited February 29
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    I had to convert that to kgs, but when I did I was impressed, bearing in mind by your own account you weren't spectacularly overweight. Here is hoping you can keep it off. I know I always fail. I only usually manage a maximum of 8kg loss at a time and could do with a little more.
    No, this time I WAS seriously overweight, as the doc told me in no uncertain terms

    In BMI terms, I was a few pounds from "obese"

    Ugh!

    I still need to lose a couple more kg but the worst is very much over
    I defo need to drop a few stone tbh, though (I'll embed it in a google sheet to save a sudden drop in site traffic) I can get quite trim, fit and still have a fairly high BMI.
    Here's me at BMI 26.3 (90 kg/185 cm) 34" waist
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kWa8TgUTULQ1vtoiZSPYwSsVHp6rn3Ku2R9vmDN8Vyo/edit?usp=sharing

    But I'm a few stone from that now...

    So yes, 35 lbs dropped or so would be a good idea.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,543
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    I had to convert that to kgs, but when I did I was impressed, bearing in mind by your own account you weren't spectacularly overweight. Here is hoping you can keep it off. I know I always fail. I only usually manage a maximum of 8kg loss at a time and could do with a little more.
    No, this time I WAS seriously overweight, as the doc told me in no uncertain terms

    In BMI terms, I was a few pounds from "obese"

    Ugh!

    I still need to lose a couple more kg but the worst is very much over
    BMI was always a population and should not be used as a marker of individual health. Its very crude. Better, simple measure are the waist to height ratio.

    But whatever - well done on that effort.
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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,561
    Here's John Podhoretz's explanation for why Haley is running: https://www.commentary.org/john-podhoretz/my-nikki-haley-theory/
    "Haley is running in case Trump loses. She will have been the last Republican standing, and since Iowa she has honed her message to a fine point, which is this: Trump is not a winner. He’s a loser."

    And then he goes on to explain his theory.

    To which I would add two things: First, though the odds are against it -- somewhere between 1000-1 and 100-1, at a quick guess -- it is still possible for Trump to lose the nomination, in which case she would be the most likely nominee. For example, given Trump's age, obesity, stress level, and so forth, there is a real possibility that he will not survive until the election, or even the convention.

    Second, although it is unfashionable to suggest a politician can have good motives, she may believe that the argument should be made against Trumpism, even in a losing cause. There are examples of such behavior -- on both the left and right -- in my life time.
  • Options

    Trumpland delenda est.

    In the King's, please!
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975

    Here's John Podhoretz's explanation for why Haley is running: https://www.commentary.org/john-podhoretz/my-nikki-haley-theory/
    "Haley is running in case Trump loses. She will have been the last Republican standing, and since Iowa she has honed her message to a fine point, which is this: Trump is not a winner. He’s a loser."

    And then he goes on to explain his theory.

    To which I would add two things: First, though the odds are against it -- somewhere between 1000-1 and 100-1, at a quick guess -- it is still possible for Trump to lose the nomination, in which case she would be the most likely nominee. For example, given Trump's age, obesity, stress level, and so forth, there is a real possibility that he will not survive until the election, or even the convention.

    Second, although it is unfashionable to suggest a politician can have good motives, she may believe that the argument should be made against Trumpism, even in a losing cause. There are examples of such behavior -- on both the left and right -- in my life time.

    It may be a combination of ideological motivation *and* calculation. See Mitt Romney.

    Trump, one way or the other is on the way out. Even if he wins.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited February 29
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Is this why Haley is running?

    So she can get Republican voters used to the idea of voting against Trump, and so that she can help to stop Trump winning in the general?

    I think she's staying in the race in case the party decides to kick Trump off the ballot if he is convicted and she'd be the only official candidate left? Or she just really believes that Trump is beyond the pale (doubtful).
    If Trump is convicted in his March Stormy Daniels falsified records case he could be in jail by the time of the GOP convention in July yet having already won a majority of delegates. However by staying in the race Haley will have won delegates too and hope to convince some Trump delegates to defect to her to avoid a GOP nominee running his campaign from his prison cell
    My understanding is that for a first offence it is not normal to go to jail (sadly) in these type of cases.
    Trump is facing 34 charges even in the Daniels case each of which carries a 4 year jail term maximum.

    Given his not guilty plea, his complete lack of remorse and contempt for the judge, the idea the judge is going to be minded to give him probation or a suspended sentence if convicted is unlikely
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    Have you had a liver function count since your scare?

    Edit to add: I've been on a similar journey to you, albeit my liver function was only just outside the normal range. I've cut out almost all alcohol (just a single glass of whisky in the whole of the February), upped my exercise, and lost 8kg. Mostly - except today - been feeling pretty good.
    Yes, you start to feel physically BETTER in yourself, which is a great incentive to keep going

    I am getting used to the days without booze. I *quite* enjoy them, even if they are a little dull. I can liven them up with a THC gummy bear or a tiny toke of weed, and I like waking up entirely clear-headed next day

    Age, huh
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,561
    FPT: Last night, I was reading Charles Sheffield's "Mind Pool", and came to the chapter where he describes how humans had transformed Ceres so that it held the majority of the solar system population. (With its many layers, Ceres had ten times as much living space as the land area of the earth. Space travel was made cheaper by, first, a space elevator, and then a "link".)

    From the comments I read in the previous thread, I concluded that some of you would like that solution to our environmental problems, and that others just don't like people, and wish there were fewer of us.

    (For the record: I like most people, and wish there were more of us.)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    I had to convert that to kgs, but when I did I was impressed, bearing in mind by your own account you weren't spectacularly overweight. Here is hoping you can keep it off. I know I always fail. I only usually manage a maximum of 8kg loss at a time and could do with a little more.
    No, this time I WAS seriously overweight, as the doc told me in no uncertain terms

    In BMI terms, I was a few pounds from "obese"

    Ugh!

    I still need to lose a couple more kg but the worst is very much over
    BMI was always a population and should not be used as a marker of individual health. Its very crude. Better, simple measure are the waist to height ratio.

    But whatever - well done on that effort.
    Even without the BMI measurement, I have a gruesome photo of myself at Peak Blob, in late November

    I actually have conspicuous MOOBS. Ugh

    The weird thing is, I convinced myself at the time I was looking OK and feeling pretty slim, the power of self-deception is strong. Noticeably I did not test my theory - I'm looking good! - by standing on any scales
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,484
    Lock Him Up, Lock Him Up, Lock Him Up......
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,089
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Is this why Haley is running?

    So she can get Republican voters used to the idea of voting against Trump, and so that she can help to stop Trump winning in the general?

    I think she's staying in the race in case the party decides to kick Trump off the ballot if he is convicted and she'd be the only official candidate left? Or she just really believes that Trump is beyond the pale (doubtful).
    If Trump is convicted in his March Stormy Daniels falsified records case he could be in jail by the time of the GOP convention in July yet having already won a majority of delegates. However by staying in the race Haley will have won delegates too and hope to convince some Trump delegates to defect to her to avoid a GOP nominee running his campaign from his prison cell
    My understanding is that for a first offence it is not normal to go to jail (sadly) in these type of cases.
    Yes, commentators predict that the nature of the offence would only warrant a fine, and of considerably less than he's facing in the NY civil fraud case. But it would be his first criminal conviction, if that matters.

    The election interference cases are more likely to lead to gaol.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Turns out my agent is/was the agent of the Hairy Bikers

    she tells me Dave Myers was, in real life, all the things you saw on screen: friendly, warm, kind, funny, decent, genial

    She is very sad, and now I am sadder too
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 828
    Hunt might just end up stealing all of Labour's tax-raising plans by the time the budget gets announced. Earlier, we heard about non-doms going, now it seems that the Energy Profits Levy will be extended.

    UK Budget: Jeremy Hunt May Extend Windfall Tax on Oil And Gas Profits

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-29/jeremy-hunt-may-extend-uk-windfall-tax-on-oil-gas-at-budget

    VAT on school fees next?
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,543
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    I had to convert that to kgs, but when I did I was impressed, bearing in mind by your own account you weren't spectacularly overweight. Here is hoping you can keep it off. I know I always fail. I only usually manage a maximum of 8kg loss at a time and could do with a little more.
    No, this time I WAS seriously overweight, as the doc told me in no uncertain terms

    In BMI terms, I was a few pounds from "obese"

    Ugh!

    I still need to lose a couple more kg but the worst is very much over
    BMI was always a population and should not be used as a marker of individual health. Its very crude. Better, simple measure are the waist to height ratio.

    But whatever - well done on that effort.
    Even without the BMI measurement, I have a gruesome photo of myself at Peak Blob, in late November

    I actually have conspicuous MOOBS. Ugh

    The weird thing is, I convinced myself at the time I was looking OK and feeling pretty slim, the power of self-deception is strong. Noticeably I did not test my theory - I'm looking good! - by standing on any scales
    My self image of myself is of a much slimmer chap that I am... Once while out running I caught sight of an overweight, lumbering middle aged chap slogging along near me, only to realise it was my shadow...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Is this why Haley is running?

    So she can get Republican voters used to the idea of voting against Trump, and so that she can help to stop Trump winning in the general?

    I think she's staying in the race in case the party decides to kick Trump off the ballot if he is convicted and she'd be the only official candidate left? Or she just really believes that Trump is beyond the pale (doubtful).
    If Trump is convicted in his March Stormy Daniels falsified records case he could be in jail by the time of the GOP convention in July yet having already won a majority of delegates. However by staying in the race Haley will have won delegates too and hope to convince some Trump delegates to defect to her to avoid a GOP nominee running his campaign from his prison cell
    My understanding is that for a first offence it is not normal to go to jail (sadly) in these type of cases.
    Trump is facing 34 charges even in the Daniels case each of which carries a 4 year jail term maximum.

    Given his not guilty plea, his complete lack of remorse and contempt for the judge, the idea the judge is going to be minded to give him probation or a suspended sentence if convicted is unlikely
    The mildly amusing thing would be if the judge decided to jail him when found guilty - which he probably will be - because the SCOTUS are playing silly buggers over the timetabling for the actually rather more serious charges he faces in Washington, Georgia and Florida. So this was the only way to sort matters out.

    Not that it would be admitted, of course.

    He could compromise and give Trump two months in jail in each charge - enough time to rule him out of being President.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    AlsoLei said:

    Hunt might just end up stealing all of Labour's tax-raising plans by the time the budget gets announced. Earlier, we heard about non-doms going, now it seems that the Energy Profits Levy will be extended.

    UK Budget: Jeremy Hunt May Extend Windfall Tax on Oil And Gas Profits

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-29/jeremy-hunt-may-extend-uk-windfall-tax-on-oil-gas-at-budget

    VAT on school fees next?

    For real banter how about Hunt announced £28 billion for green investment?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    edited February 29
    TimS said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Hunt might just end up stealing all of Labour's tax-raising plans by the time the budget gets announced. Earlier, we heard about non-doms going, now it seems that the Energy Profits Levy will be extended.

    UK Budget: Jeremy Hunt May Extend Windfall Tax on Oil And Gas Profits

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-29/jeremy-hunt-may-extend-uk-windfall-tax-on-oil-gas-at-budget

    VAT on school fees next?

    For real banter how about Hunt announced £28 billion for green investment?
    I hope he does, as that would be a really good policy, and probably pay for itself.

    But he won't, because none of Hunt, Sunak and the Civil Servants at the Treasury understand the concept of infrastructure investment for return. They are all essentially failed accountants.
  • Options
    AlsoLei said:

    Hunt might just end up stealing all of Labour's tax-raising plans by the time the budget gets announced. Earlier, we heard about non-doms going, now it seems that the Energy Profits Levy will be extended.

    UK Budget: Jeremy Hunt May Extend Windfall Tax on Oil And Gas Profits

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-29/jeremy-hunt-may-extend-uk-windfall-tax-on-oil-gas-at-budget

    VAT on school fees next?

    This is a socialist government.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655

    AlsoLei said:

    Hunt might just end up stealing all of Labour's tax-raising plans by the time the budget gets announced. Earlier, we heard about non-doms going, now it seems that the Energy Profits Levy will be extended.

    UK Budget: Jeremy Hunt May Extend Windfall Tax on Oil And Gas Profits

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-29/jeremy-hunt-may-extend-uk-windfall-tax-on-oil-gas-at-budget

    VAT on school fees next?

    This is a socialist government.
    Nonsense.

    They haven't failed even though they've run out of other people's money.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    I had to convert that to kgs, but when I did I was impressed, bearing in mind by your own account you weren't spectacularly overweight. Here is hoping you can keep it off. I know I always fail. I only usually manage a maximum of 8kg loss at a time and could do with a little more.
    No, this time I WAS seriously overweight, as the doc told me in no uncertain terms

    In BMI terms, I was a few pounds from "obese"

    Ugh!

    I still need to lose a couple more kg but the worst is very much over
    BMI was always a population and should not be used as a marker of individual health. Its very crude. Better, simple measure are the waist to height ratio.

    But whatever - well done on that effort.
    So the solution is I get a couple of inches taller?
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,089
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Is this why Haley is running?

    So she can get Republican voters used to the idea of voting against Trump, and so that she can help to stop Trump winning in the general?

    I think she's staying in the race in case the party decides to kick Trump off the ballot if he is convicted and she'd be the only official candidate left? Or she just really believes that Trump is beyond the pale (doubtful).
    If Trump is convicted in his March Stormy Daniels falsified records case he could be in jail by the time of the GOP convention in July yet having already won a majority of delegates. However by staying in the race Haley will have won delegates too and hope to convince some Trump delegates to defect to her to avoid a GOP nominee running his campaign from his prison cell
    My understanding is that for a first offence it is not normal to go to jail (sadly) in these type of cases.
    Trump is facing 34 charges even in the Daniels case each of which carries a 4 year jail term maximum.

    Given his not guilty plea, his complete lack of remorse and contempt for the judge, the idea the judge is going to be minded to give him probation or a suspended sentence if convicted is unlikely
    The mildly amusing thing would be if the judge decided to jail him when found guilty - which he probably will be - because the SCOTUS are playing silly buggers over the timetabling for the actually rather more serious charges he faces in Washington, Georgia and Florida. So this was the only way to sort matters out.

    Not that it would be admitted, of course.

    He could compromise and give Trump two months in jail in each charge - enough time to rule him out of being President.
    Trump and his lawyers have behaved so badly in previous trials that it's entirely possible a judge decides a lack of remorse and persistent evidence of malfeasance should be taken into account in the sentencing.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,543
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    I had to convert that to kgs, but when I did I was impressed, bearing in mind by your own account you weren't spectacularly overweight. Here is hoping you can keep it off. I know I always fail. I only usually manage a maximum of 8kg loss at a time and could do with a little more.
    No, this time I WAS seriously overweight, as the doc told me in no uncertain terms

    In BMI terms, I was a few pounds from "obese"

    Ugh!

    I still need to lose a couple more kg but the worst is very much over
    BMI was always a population and should not be used as a marker of individual health. Its very crude. Better, simple measure are the waist to height ratio.

    But whatever - well done on that effort.
    So the solution is I get a couple of inches taller?
    Exactly, as per Charles Hawtry in Carry on Henry...
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,089

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    Wow! Labour at 1.95, Galloway at 2.04. I still think Labour is value!

    Reform at 20 is ridiculous. Unfortunately, you can only lay at 210.
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  • Options

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    leak of postal votes?
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    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,246
    FPT @148grss I went to see Pacific Overtures too, it was excellent wasn't it. @TOPPING and Dear England a couple of months ago, also really good. I'd say the Pacific Overtures crowd was quite a typical theatre going crowd, mostly over 50, almost entirely white (Mel Gedroydj - probably misspelled that, was in the audience when we went). Whereas the crowd at Dear England was very different from the usual theatre going crowd, much younger, much more into football, a lot more young men than usual and more diverse in every sense (age, race, class) which I suppose shows if you make a play about things people are interested in then they will come. The Catford panto had quite a diverse audience - I saw that three times over Christmas as my daughter was in it!
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,870

    FPT @148grss I went to see Pacific Overtures too, it was excellent wasn't it. @TOPPING and Dear England a couple of months ago, also really good. I'd say the Pacific Overtures crowd was quite a typical theatre going crowd, mostly over 50, almost entirely white (Mel Gedroydj - probably misspelled that, was in the audience when we went). Whereas the crowd at Dear England was very different from the usual theatre going crowd, much younger, much more into football, a lot more young men than usual and more diverse in every sense (age, race, class) which I suppose shows if you make a play about things people are interested in then they will come. The Catford panto had quite a diverse audience - I saw that three times over Christmas as my daughter was in it!

    I didn't know anything about the show or Japanese history prior to it and it was, indeed, amazing. Really enjoyed it - my dad was tempted to go twice.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,089

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    leak of postal votes?
    Could be... although of course that would be illegal!
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,484
    edited February 29
    Paul Pogba banned for 4 years for doping

    Pogba 'sad and shocked' at four-year ban for doping - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/68436828
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700
    60% time for a change is pretty terminal. Only 21% disagree.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 828

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    leak of postal votes?
    Would that necessarily tell us much? After all, Ali was the strong favourite when most of the PVs will have been filled in - so you'd expect them to reflect that.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,255
    Cookie said:

    Right: I'm going to say this because I can't stop thinking about it, and I might get a slightly more sympathetic hearing here than I have done IRL.

    I started rewatching the Ipcress File last night, 20-odd years after I first saw it. And it struck me in the opening scene that the train from London to Nottingham was scheduled to call at RUGBY, Leicester, Nottingham and Sheffield. And it struck me - that must be the old Great Central route out of Marylebone!
    Going to be hard for the rest of the film to live up to that early excitement.

    I've tried telling people IRL this and they're not really interested.

    The line must have closed shortly after the film was made.
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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,561
    For obesity, as for so many other things, prevention is better than cure. And this type of prevention has worked for me for more than 50 years: https://www.uwhealth.org/news/top-10-reasons-cross-country-skiing-is-good-for-you

    (Regular swimming is almost as good.)
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    Cookie said:

    Right: I'm going to say this because I can't stop thinking about it, and I might get a slightly more sympathetic hearing here than I have done IRL.

    I started rewatching the Ipcress File last night, 20-odd years after I first saw it. And it struck me in the opening scene that the train from London to Nottingham was scheduled to call at RUGBY, Leicester, Nottingham and Sheffield. And it struck me - that must be the old Great Central route out of Marylebone!
    Going to be hard for the rest of the film to live up to that early excitement.

    I've tried telling people IRL this and they're not really interested.

    The best part about the introduction of the Ipcress File is when Harry Palmer puts on his glasses and suddenly sees the world properly. Caine allegedly did not want to get typecast in the part so he put the glasses on even although he didn't need them.

    I tried to get excited about the train thing but my heart wasn't really in it. Incidentally, the remake in the series for TV last year (I think) was excellent.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700
    edited February 29
    AlsoLei said:

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    leak of postal votes?
    Would that necessarily tell us much? After all, Ali was the strong favourite when most of the PVs will have been filled in - so you'd expect them to reflect that.
    Right, so the more pertinent question is how many postal votes there are relative to the on-the-day turnout. If turnout in person is abysmal then you'd expect Ali to win comfortably, but if the turnout was fairly reasonable, then Galloway's chances would be much better.

    Obvs we know that voting is brisk, but perhaps someone has some info about what is happening. With neither of the three traditional main parties putting much effort in, we could be on course for a record low turnout.

    The current record is 18.2% in Manchester Central in 2012.

    They probably need a bit more than 15,000 votes altogether to avoid seeing a new low turnout record.
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    60% time for a change is pretty terminal. Only 21% disagree.
    I don't doubt it but Savanta has a poll that by 54% to 40% want tax cuts which is not the general narrative
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,004
    DavidL said:

    Cookie said:

    Right: I'm going to say this because I can't stop thinking about it, and I might get a slightly more sympathetic hearing here than I have done IRL.

    I started rewatching the Ipcress File last night, 20-odd years after I first saw it. And it struck me in the opening scene that the train from London to Nottingham was scheduled to call at RUGBY, Leicester, Nottingham and Sheffield. And it struck me - that must be the old Great Central route out of Marylebone!
    Going to be hard for the rest of the film to live up to that early excitement.

    I've tried telling people IRL this and they're not really interested.

    The best part about the introduction of the Ipcress File is when Harry Palmer puts on his glasses and suddenly sees the world properly. Caine allegedly did not want to get typecast in the part so he put the glasses on even although he didn't need them.

    I tried to get excited about the train thing but my heart wasn't really in it. Incidentally, the remake in the series for TV last year (I think) was excellent.
    The best moment in the Ipcress File is the stylish breaking of eggs with one hand. I think that is the introduction as well.

    Yes I can do it.

    IIRC that is Len Deighton's hand, because Michael Caine couldn't do it.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,736
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Is this why Haley is running?

    So she can get Republican voters used to the idea of voting against Trump, and so that she can help to stop Trump winning in the general?

    I think she's staying in the race in case the party decides to kick Trump off the ballot if he is convicted and she'd be the only official candidate left? Or she just really believes that Trump is beyond the pale (doubtful).
    If Trump is convicted in his March Stormy Daniels falsified records case he could be in jail by the time of the GOP convention in July yet having already won a majority of delegates. However by staying in the race Haley will have won delegates too and hope to convince some Trump delegates to defect to her to avoid a GOP nominee running his campaign from his prison cell
    My understanding is that for a first offence it is not normal to go to jail (sadly) in these type of cases.
    Trump is facing 34 charges even in the Daniels case each of which carries a 4 year jail term maximum.

    Given his not guilty plea, his complete lack of remorse and contempt for the judge, the idea the judge is going to be minded to give him probation or a suspended sentence if convicted is unlikely
    All I can tell you is from all I have read a first offence normally involves a fine. I really hope I am wrong and you are right. I would be overjoyed if you were right on this one I can tell you.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    Wow! Labour at 1.95, Galloway at 2.04. I still think Labour is value!

    Reform at 20 is ridiculous. Unfortunately, you can only lay at 210.
    You were right - now down to 1.83. I'm surprised, but someone evidently thinks they know.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,004
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    Well done. After a boozeless month (with 1 night off) I am only down 10 pounds and still have 30 to go. My wife suggests restricting myself to a single pudding a day might help but that seems a tad drastic. :neutral:
    An alternative is no puddings in the week, and join a pudding club at weekends - so you get the same total.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,736

    For obesity, as for so many other things, prevention is better than cure. And this type of prevention has worked for me for more than 50 years: https://www.uwhealth.org/news/top-10-reasons-cross-country-skiing-is-good-for-you

    (Regular swimming is almost as good.)

    Whenever I have watched cross country skiing it has always struck me how daft skiing without using gravity is.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,959

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    I thought Labour had disowned their candidate due to him being an antisemite?
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700
    GIN1138 said:

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    I thought Labour had disowned their candidate due to him being an antisemite?
    He's still on the ballot paper as the Labour candidate, because it happened too late to change.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,959

    GIN1138 said:

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    I thought Labour had disowned their candidate due to him being an antisemite?
    He's still on the ballot paper as the Labour candidate, because it happened too late to change.
    His victory speech will certainly be interesting (if he does indeed win)

    Presumably SKS won't be rushing up to Rochdale in the morning.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,004
    Well, I've edited my first video with Da Vinci.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzvQjUUFny8

    Not very scintillating, but gives a good idea why a lot of people riding cycles are pushed onto the roads, and why a lot of people who use mobility aids can't go anywhere, and why many don't go anywhere in the evenings.

    Here the alternative route across the motorway is a traffic island doing 100k vehicles or more per day, and no crossings or footway (but space for one, of course).

    Quite impressed with Da Vinci.
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    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,783
    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    Cookie said:

    Right: I'm going to say this because I can't stop thinking about it, and I might get a slightly more sympathetic hearing here than I have done IRL.

    I started rewatching the Ipcress File last night, 20-odd years after I first saw it. And it struck me in the opening scene that the train from London to Nottingham was scheduled to call at RUGBY, Leicester, Nottingham and Sheffield. And it struck me - that must be the old Great Central route out of Marylebone!
    Going to be hard for the rest of the film to live up to that early excitement.

    I've tried telling people IRL this and they're not really interested.

    The best part about the introduction of the Ipcress File is when Harry Palmer puts on his glasses and suddenly sees the world properly. Caine allegedly did not want to get typecast in the part so he put the glasses on even although he didn't need them.

    I tried to get excited about the train thing but my heart wasn't really in it. Incidentally, the remake in the series for TV last year (I think) was excellent.
    The best moment in the Ipcress File is the stylish breaking of eggs with one hand. I think that is the introduction as well.

    Yes I can do it.

    IIRC that is Len Deighton's hand, because Michael Caine couldn't do it.
    C'mon chaps, the most memorable moment was Harry using a cafetière.
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    Trumpland delenda est.

    In the King's, please!
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carthago_delenda_est
    You want to commit genocide???
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,753
    edited February 29
    MattW said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    Well done. After a boozeless month (with 1 night off) I am only down 10 pounds and still have 30 to go. My wife suggests restricting myself to a single pudding a day might help but that seems a tad drastic. :neutral:
    An alternative is no puddings in the week, and join a pudding club at weekends - so you get the same total.
    Being in the pudding club is not for weekends only. Like dogs are not only for Christmas......
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,543
    kjh said:

    For obesity, as for so many other things, prevention is better than cure. And this type of prevention has worked for me for more than 50 years: https://www.uwhealth.org/news/top-10-reasons-cross-country-skiing-is-good-for-you

    (Regular swimming is almost as good.)

    Whenever I have watched cross country skiing it has always struck me how daft skiing without using gravity is.
    Even more so without snow...

    (Across snow, cross country skiing is pretty efficient and far quicker than walking through knee-deep white stuff.)
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    I wonder what Haley is going to say when Trump is the nominee (assuming this happens). Standard endorsement, lukewarm endorsement or no endorsement?

    No endorsement, hope he loses and run again in 2028
    That's what I'm hoping. All of that.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    I thought Labour had disowned their candidate due to him being an antisemite?
    He's still on the ballot paper as the Labour candidate, because it happened too late to change.
    His victory speech will certainly be interesting (if he does indeed win)

    Presumably SKS won't be rushing up to Rochdale in the morning.
    Whoever wins is going to have a strange few months as an MP, assuming a different Labour candidate will most likely win the seat at the next general election.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,194

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    I thought Labour had disowned their candidate due to him being an antisemite?
    He's still on the ballot paper as the Labour candidate, because it happened too late to change.
    His victory speech will certainly be interesting (if he does indeed win)

    Presumably SKS won't be rushing up to Rochdale in the morning.
    Whoever wins is going to have a strange few months as an MP, assuming a different Labour candidate will most likely win the seat at the next general election.
    Maybe Mr Galloway ought to be speaker? He'd be universally awful to all parties - no worries about partiality there.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 828

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    I thought Labour had disowned their candidate due to him being an antisemite?
    He's still on the ballot paper as the Labour candidate, because it happened too late to change.
    His victory speech will certainly be interesting (if he does indeed win)

    Presumably SKS won't be rushing up to Rochdale in the morning.
    Whoever wins is going to have a strange few months as an MP, assuming a different Labour candidate will most likely win the seat at the next general election.
    I assume that, as he would have been elected as the Labour candidate, he'd automatically become a member of the PLP - and that SKS will actively have to suspend or expel him. Which may or may not cause further problems.

    All a bit of a mess, and I can see MoonRabbit's point that Labour might in many ways prefer someone else to win.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    kjh said:

    For obesity, as for so many other things, prevention is better than cure. And this type of prevention has worked for me for more than 50 years: https://www.uwhealth.org/news/top-10-reasons-cross-country-skiing-is-good-for-you

    (Regular swimming is almost as good.)

    Whenever I have watched cross country skiing it has always struck me how daft skiing without using gravity is.
    Ask Russians.

    They invaded Finland in winter. A country where there is nothing to do in winter and the national sport is skiing through the forest combined with shooting.

    Which gave us this meme

    image
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    kinabalu said:

    I wonder what Haley is going to say when Trump is the nominee (assuming this happens). Standard endorsement, lukewarm endorsement or no endorsement?

    The deplorable people have spoken.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    Leon said:

    I am exceedingly happy to report that, having returned home about 35 pounds lighter than when I left, I can now, indeed, wear some highly expensive jackets that I was once close to dumping/selling, as being too small for my fat old self

    That's a nice feeling

    2.5 stone in how long? Well done. Did you subsist on water alone?
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 828

    kjh said:

    For obesity, as for so many other things, prevention is better than cure. And this type of prevention has worked for me for more than 50 years: https://www.uwhealth.org/news/top-10-reasons-cross-country-skiing-is-good-for-you

    (Regular swimming is almost as good.)

    Whenever I have watched cross country skiing it has always struck me how daft skiing without using gravity is.
    Ask Russians.

    They invaded Finland in winter. A country where there is nothing to do in winter and the national sport is skiing through the forest combined with shooting.

    Which gave us this meme

    image
    And, of course, Aimo Koivunen proved that the combination of meth and skiing makes for an even more potent method of weight loss...
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    Wow! Labour at 1.95, Galloway at 2.04. I still think Labour is value!

    Reform at 20 is ridiculous. Unfortunately, you can only lay at 210.
    You were right - now down to 1.83. I'm surprised, but someone evidently thinks they know.
    Has much money traded today? There’s been a move, but there is no liquidity now, you could have £50 on GG and he’d be fav again
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700
    The Journal have a few details:

    "The number of postal votes in the election is high, standing at 21,810 out of an electorate of 82,615."

    https://www.thejournal.ie/uk-voters-vote-in-chaotic-by-election-in-rochdale-united-kingdom-6313312-Feb2024/

    I'm assuming that's registered postal voters, rather than number of postal votes returned.

    The maximum number of votes to set a new record low turnout is somewhere between 14,994 and 15,076. The wiki by-election page for Manchester Central doesn't have a figure for the electorate that I can see, so I can't work it out exactly.

    Coincidentally, Tony Lloyd was the MP before the by-election for the 2012 Manchester Central by-election too. He'd resigned to stand for election for PCC for Greater Manchester.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Is this why Haley is running?

    So she can get Republican voters used to the idea of voting against Trump, and so that she can help to stop Trump winning in the general?

    I think she's staying in the race in case the party decides to kick Trump off the ballot if he is convicted and she'd be the only official candidate left? Or she just really believes that Trump is beyond the pale (doubtful).
    If Trump is convicted in his March Stormy Daniels falsified records case he could be in jail by the time of the GOP convention in July yet having already won a majority of delegates. However by staying in the race Haley will have won delegates too and hope to convince some Trump delegates to defect to her to avoid a GOP nominee running his campaign from his prison cell
    My understanding is that for a first offence it is not normal to go to jail (sadly) in these type of cases.
    Trump is facing 34 charges even in the Daniels case each of which carries a 4 year jail term maximum.

    Given his not guilty plea, his complete lack of remorse and contempt for the judge, the idea the judge is going to be minded to give him probation or a suspended sentence if convicted is unlikely
    All I can tell you is from all I have read a first offence normally involves a fine. I really hope I am wrong and you are right. I would be overjoyed if you were right on this one I can tell you.
    The Orange One in an orange suit - what joy that would bring to the world!
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700
    AlsoLei said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    I thought Labour had disowned their candidate due to him being an antisemite?
    He's still on the ballot paper as the Labour candidate, because it happened too late to change.
    His victory speech will certainly be interesting (if he does indeed win)

    Presumably SKS won't be rushing up to Rochdale in the morning.
    Whoever wins is going to have a strange few months as an MP, assuming a different Labour candidate will most likely win the seat at the next general election.
    I assume that, as he would have been elected as the Labour candidate, he'd automatically become a member of the PLP - and that SKS will actively have to suspend or expel him. Which may or may not cause further problems.

    All a bit of a mess, and I can see MoonRabbit's point that Labour might in many ways prefer someone else to win.
    I don't think that's an issue. But his mere presence in the Commons will cause issues. If any other Labour MP is seen talking to him that potentially raises questions, as does anything he might say in the chamber. A right mess alright.
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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,561
    When I go cross country skiing, I almost always go the same distance down, as I do up. (Less time going down, of course.)

    There is a turn, the Telemark, used by some good cross country skiers, when they are going down hill. (I've done it with ordinary cross country gear, which can be challenging, and so lots of fun.)
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    AlsoLei said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    I thought Labour had disowned their candidate due to him being an antisemite?
    He's still on the ballot paper as the Labour candidate, because it happened too late to change.
    His victory speech will certainly be interesting (if he does indeed win)

    Presumably SKS won't be rushing up to Rochdale in the morning.
    Whoever wins is going to have a strange few months as an MP, assuming a different Labour candidate will most likely win the seat at the next general election.
    I assume that, as he would have been elected as the Labour candidate, he'd automatically become a member of the PLP - and that SKS will actively have to suspend or expel him. Which may or may not cause further problems.

    All a bit of a mess, and I can see MoonRabbit's point that Labour might in many ways prefer someone else to win.
    I don't think that's an issue. But his mere presence in the Commons will cause issues. If any other Labour MP is seen talking to him that potentially raises questions, as does anything he might say in the chamber. A right mess alright.
    Yes, but when the alternative is George Galloway...
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    From Hunt's constituency newsletter, for what it's delphically worth:

    "Firstly there is less room to spend money or cut taxes even than I was left with at the end of the Autumn. Secondly that my priority will be economic growth which will be the most important part of the speech but also the most difficult to make interesting"
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700

    AlsoLei said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    I thought Labour had disowned their candidate due to him being an antisemite?
    He's still on the ballot paper as the Labour candidate, because it happened too late to change.
    His victory speech will certainly be interesting (if he does indeed win)

    Presumably SKS won't be rushing up to Rochdale in the morning.
    Whoever wins is going to have a strange few months as an MP, assuming a different Labour candidate will most likely win the seat at the next general election.
    I assume that, as he would have been elected as the Labour candidate, he'd automatically become a member of the PLP - and that SKS will actively have to suspend or expel him. Which may or may not cause further problems.

    All a bit of a mess, and I can see MoonRabbit's point that Labour might in many ways prefer someone else to win.
    I don't think that's an issue. But his mere presence in the Commons will cause issues. If any other Labour MP is seen talking to him that potentially raises questions, as does anything he might say in the chamber. A right mess alright.
    Yes, but when the alternative is George Galloway...
    I'm hoping for a good vote for the Just Stop Oil vicar.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    edited February 29

    AlsoLei said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Betfair has moved very sharply to Labour for Rochdale today, to the point of crossover - the "Labour" candidate is now a narrow favourite. No idea whether that's just profit=taking or a genuine reaction to impressions on the ground.

    I thought Labour had disowned their candidate due to him being an antisemite?
    He's still on the ballot paper as the Labour candidate, because it happened too late to change.
    His victory speech will certainly be interesting (if he does indeed win)

    Presumably SKS won't be rushing up to Rochdale in the morning.
    Whoever wins is going to have a strange few months as an MP, assuming a different Labour candidate will most likely win the seat at the next general election.
    I assume that, as he would have been elected as the Labour candidate, he'd automatically become a member of the PLP - and that SKS will actively have to suspend or expel him. Which may or may not cause further problems.

    All a bit of a mess, and I can see MoonRabbit's point that Labour might in many ways prefer someone else to win.
    I don't think that's an issue. But his mere presence in the Commons will cause issues. If any other Labour MP is seen talking to him that potentially raises questions, as does anything he might say in the chamber. A right mess alright.
    I'd like to think that in such situations the individual could be given a second chance following an abject apology (he's already apologised, I believe) and a commitment to take some actions to show that they want to improve their behaviour going forward (e.g. get involved with some Jewish education, support and/or charity groups; undertake some diversity training, etc.)

    Obviously if he's doubled-down or refused to apologise then, yeah, just blank him out.
This discussion has been closed.