The problems with having two massive elections at the same time – politicalbetting.com

System · February 23

The problems with having two massive elections at the same time – politicalbetting.com

? Exclusive: Liz Truss defends sharing stage with election-deniers as she effectively endorses Donald TrumpFind out more?https://t.co/T0uryU3ERc pic.twitter.com/5n6K2tLc3L

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles · February 23

First like Biden, I hope.

Pulpstar · February 23

Liz Trump.

TheScreamingEagles · February 23

Pulpstar said:
Liz Trump.

I nearly made that typo in the header.

HYUFD · February 23

Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West

Anabobazina · February 23

Will Liz Trump be making a leadership challenge against Sunny Boy?

Has her time come???

Selebian · February 23

Problems? What problems?

Senior Conservatives being tossers -> fewer Conservatives after the election looks more like a feature than a bug to me

Offtopic: That's a seriously bad graph in the tweet, mainly due to the wrong colouring for the legend, I guess. But for a UK audience, the blue and red immediately suggests Con and Lab anyway, not - as I think intended - Dem and GOP.

ETA: Keiran, you can hire me to sort out your graphs if you like

williamglenn · February 23

Pulpstar said:
Liz Trump.

He does like European blondes.

OldKingCole · February 23

Off-topic: BBC is reporting that Post Office former chair Paula Vennels has been formally stripped of her CBE, 'for bringing the honours system into disrepute'.

And the picture of LizTruss in the header shows her wearing Leon's necklace.

Mexicanpete · February 23

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West

Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?

OldKingCole · February 23

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?

Are you expecting logic and consistency from Johnson?

Nigelb · February 23

We found the guys behind the deepfake Biden robocall and it’s even wilder than you could ever possibly imagine.
https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1760978585828085884

(It's not, but it's a good story nonetheless.)

williamglenn · February 23

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?

In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.

Roger · February 23

Another impressive export from Brexit Britain.

bondegezou · February 23

williamglenn said:

Pulpstar said:
Liz Trump.
He does like European blondes.

I think he prefers eastern European ones... although Truss did spend a portion of her childhood in Warsaw, so maybe that counts.

Mexicanpete · February 23

...

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.

Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html

williamglenn · February 23

bondegezou said:

williamglenn said:

Pulpstar said:
Liz Trump.
He does like European blondes.
I think he prefers eastern European ones... although Truss did spend a portion of her childhood in Warsaw, so maybe that counts.

Imagine a First Lady speech in the style of Liz Truss.

"Some people call me the Worst Lady. [pause for gurning]"

Nigelb · February 23

The Republicans moan about the 'flyover country', and how it gets ignored bu the federal government - but Biden's is the first administration in quite a long time to do anything significant about it.

Biden’s big bet on place-based industrial policy
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/bidens-big-bet-on-place-based-industrial-policy/
By now, it’s clear that “Bidenomics” centers heavily on what the White House calls a “modern American industrial strategy.” What’s less recognized, though, is another feature of the new economic push: its strong geographic orientation.
Most broadly, the big spending bills of the last Congress—the American Rescue Plan Act (ARP), Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)— embody a national pivot. The U.S. has recommitted to a broad public investment agenda after decades of vacillation between “laissez-faire” economics at some times and redistributive efforts at others. The new goal: Raise the productive capacity of the U.S. economy and at the same time promote greater inclusion, a higher standard of living, and reduced carbon emissions.
And yet, there is more to the new line of action. Specifically, key elements of the new approach are strongly place-based. ..

All those Tories who have spent years wittering on about "levelling up" might take notes.

MoonRabbit · February 23

“My expectation is that Sunak will call the general election later on this year”

🤬

Nigelb · February 23

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.

This one's for you, then.

Trump says Americans who don’t support him are “more dangerous” than Vladimir Putin
https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1760877170472165699

williamglenn · February 23

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html

How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.

Taz · February 23

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:
Liz Trump.
I nearly made that typo in the header.

That I do not doubt and I’d bet you checked it more than once prior to sending.

williamglenn · February 23

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
This one's for you, then.

Trump says Americans who don’t support him are “more dangerous” than Vladimir Putin
https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1760877170472165699

That's a poor précis of what he actually says in that clip:

"This time the greatest threat is not from the outside of our country - I really believe this - it's from within. It's from the people from within our country that are more dangerous than the people outside. We can handle China. We can handle Russia."

Mexicanpete · February 23

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.

How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.

Anabobazina · February 23

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.

You didn't answer my question yesterday.

Are you supporting Trump for the presidency in 2024?

MoonRabbit · February 23

Cicero said:
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.

For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.

The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.

UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.

And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.

bondegezou · February 23

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.

LOL

TheScreamingEagles · February 23

Taz said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:
Liz Trump.
I nearly made that typo in the header.
That I do not doubt and I’d bet you checked it more than once prior to sending.

I checked to make sure there was no Donald Truss

JosiasJessop · February 23

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
This one's for you, then.

Trump says Americans who don’t support him are “more dangerous” than Vladimir Putin
https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1760877170472165699
That's a poor précis of what he actually says in that clip:

"This time the greatest threat is not from the outside of our country - I really believe this - it's from within. It's from the people from within our country that are more dangerous than the people outside. We can handle China. We can handle Russia."

I don't think he full context makes much difference. An interesting question about that full quote, given Trump's psyche, is whether the threat and the 'we' refers to the country, or to him and his team. Because the biggest threat to Trump *is* from within the US. And rightly so.

Nigelb · February 23

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

You are in denial.

"We can handle Russia."

williamglenn · February 23

Anabobazina said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
You didn't answer my question yesterday.

Are you supporting Trump for the presidency in 2024?

I don't have a vote, but I think British people should regard a Trump presidency with more equanimity.

Andy_JS · February 23

MoonRabbit said:
“My expectation is that Sunak will call the general election later on this year”

🤬

Maybe Sunak will surprise everyone and go for 23rd January.

MoonRabbit · February 23

On Polling. One thing that’s being proved wrong - collapse of the SNP under its new leader, who was supposed to be useless and prove a disaster wasn’t he? Under this leader, and in spite in how criminally corrupt the old leadership appears to have been, the SNP are still polling strongly. Their polling numbers look healthy, the number of seats they retain at General Election could prove very healthy as well.

Big_G_NorthWales · February 23

Seems Mercedes has put a brake on evs and will continue to produce petrol and diesel cars well beyond 2030

https://twitter.com/PeterSweden7/status/1761005209612890563?t=jL-DmKfoJ7imhDRJtKLwcw&s=19

Not sure my purchase of a petrol Mercedes in the last month has been a factor !!

Mexicanpete · February 23

...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Taz said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:
Liz Trump.
I nearly made that typo in the header.
That I do not doubt and I’d bet you checked it more than once prior to sending.
I checked to make sure there was no Donald Truss

Although I suspect there is a least one Donald's truss.

DecrepiterJohnL · February 23

US man accused of making $1.8m from listening in on wife’s remote work calls
Regulator charges Tyler Loudon with insider trading in case that could fuel arguments about working from home
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/23/us-man-accused-of-making-18m-from-insider-trading-wife-remote-calls-working-from-home

One danger of WFH and its lack of confidentiality we have previously discussed on PB.

Roger · February 23

I know on PB. we're used to finding meaning from a well turned phrase....

But this one rescued from the dying embers of the previous thread looks to be on another level ..........

(MOONRABBIT)

"There’s bits of this PB header sailing close to the siren voices of myopic fantasy that does not represent the full truth and history of the week".

OldKingCole · February 23

Andy_JS said:

MoonRabbit said:
“My expectation is that Sunak will call the general election later on this year”

🤬
Maybe Sunak will surprise everyone and go for 23rd January.

Wouldn't surprise me!

Nigelb · February 23

And which party is to blame for this ?

Congressional inaction is handing the Pacific to China
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4483445-congressional-inaction-is-handing-the-pacific-to-china/

Mexicanpete · February 23

Andy_JS said:

MoonRabbit said:
“My expectation is that Sunak will call the general election later on this year”

🤬
Maybe Sunak will surprise everyone and go for 23rd January.

He still has to call that in 2024. Several of us have called this as the date of the next election. Three days after we celebrate the Trump funfest.

HYUFD · February 23

MoonRabbit said:
On Polling. One thing that’s being proved wrong - collapse of the SNP under its new leader, who was supposed to be useless and prove a disaster wasn’t he? Under this leader, and in spite in how criminally corrupt the old leadership appears to have been, the SNP are still polling strongly. Their polling numbers look healthy, the number of seats they retain at General Election could prove very healthy as well.

On every Scottish Westminster poll this year the SNP are polling well below 2019 so will certainly lose seats, indeed on all but 1 poll they are even polling worse than 2017 when they lost 21 seats. So this will almost certainly be the worst UK general election result for the SNP since 2010 and could even see Labour win more Scottish seats than them. Indeed the latest Redfield Scottish figures have Scottish Labour ahead of the SNP now

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland#Poll_results

williamglenn · February 23

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.

I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?

Mexicanpete · February 23

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?

You seem very sanguine about the whole affair. Have you been pencilled in for a place in the UK Politburo?

OnlyLivingBoy · February 23

MoonRabbit said:

Cicero said:
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.

For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.

The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.

And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.

Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.

Big_G_NorthWales · February 23

HYUFD said:

MoonRabbit said:
On Polling. One thing that’s being proved wrong - collapse of the SNP under its new leader, who was supposed to be useless and prove a disaster wasn’t he? Under this leader, and in spite in how criminally corrupt the old leadership appears to have been, the SNP are still polling strongly. Their polling numbers look healthy, the number of seats they retain at General Election could prove very healthy as well.
On every Scottish Westminster poll this year the SNP are polling well below 2019 so will certainly lose seats, indeed on all but 1 poll they are even polling worse than 2017 when they lost 21 seats. So this will almost certainly be the worst UK general election result for the SNP since 2010 and could even see Labour win more Scottish seats than them. Indeed the latest Redfield Scottish figures have Scottish Labour ahead of the SNP now

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland#Poll_results

The Scottish polls following yesterday will be very interesting

Nigelb · February 23

Any such intervention would be extremely unlikely from a Trump administration.

How U.S. Pressure Helped Save Brazil’s Democracy
Mounting evidence suggests Biden kept pro-Bolsonaro generals from executing a coup.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/20/brazil-bolsonaro-coup-us-biden-democracy-election-chips-lula/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921

HYUFD · February 23

Nigelb said:
The Republicans moan about the 'flyover country', and how it gets ignored bu the federal government - but Biden's is the first administration in quite a long time to do anything significant about it.

Biden’s big bet on place-based industrial policy
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/bidens-big-bet-on-place-based-industrial-policy/
By now, it’s clear that “Bidenomics” centers heavily on what the White House calls a “modern American industrial strategy.” What’s less recognized, though, is another feature of the new economic push: its strong geographic orientation.
Most broadly, the big spending bills of the last Congress—the American Rescue Plan Act (ARP), Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)— embody a national pivot. The U.S. has recommitted to a broad public investment agenda after decades of vacillation between “laissez-faire” economics at some times and redistributive efforts at others. The new goal: Raise the productive capacity of the U.S. economy and at the same time promote greater inclusion, a higher standard of living, and reduced carbon emissions.
And yet, there is more to the new line of action. Specifically, key elements of the new approach are strongly place-based. ..

All those Tories who have spent years wittering on about "levelling up" might take notes.

With Biden big government infrastructure spending and Trump tariffs one thing is clear, whoever wins in November laissez-faire, Reaganite economics is off the table

williamglenn · February 23

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
You seem very sanguine about the whole affair. Have you been pencilled in for a place in the UK Politburo?

This strikes me as completely hysterical. Do you seriously think there is a risk of our being occupied by Russia?

viewcode · February 23

I've just noticed: Michael Spicer the comedian is a physical double of Simon Evans from Staged.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Evans_(director)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p0fqlqxc/staged-series-3-4-present
https://www.michaelspicer.co.uk/
https://www.youtube.com/@MrMichaelSpicer

malcolmg · February 23

MoonRabbit said:
On Polling. One thing that’s being proved wrong - collapse of the SNP under its new leader, who was supposed to be useless and prove a disaster wasn’t he? Under this leader, and in spite in how criminally corrupt the old leadership appears to have been, the SNP are still polling strongly. Their polling numbers look healthy, the number of seats they retain at General Election could prove very healthy as well.

Nothing to do with the leader he i struly Useless. There is nowhere to go for any self respecting Scottish person, majority do not want English parties and eth other Independence parties are too small/too new and the Greens are Loonies. So a bit liek England in 2019 when choice was Corbyn, it si the lesser of several evils.

Anabobazina · February 23

williamglenn said:

Anabobazina said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
You didn't answer my question yesterday.

Are you supporting Trump for the presidency in 2024?
I don't have a vote, but I think British people should regard a Trump presidency with more equanimity.

LOL. Weasel words.

If you did have a vote, how would you cast it?

viewcode · February 23

Roger said:
I know on PB. we're used to finding meaning from a well turned phrase....

But this one rescued from the dying embers of the previous thread looks to be on another level ..........

(MOONRABBIT)

"There’s bits of this PB header sailing close to the siren voices of myopic fantasy that does not represent the full truth and history of the week".

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4696398#Comment_4696398

bondegezou · February 23

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?

Ceteris paribus, I'd rather have a country that is committed to its NATO obligations on mutual defence, but only spending 1.5% than a country spending >2% that suggests it won't honour those obligations.

Pulpstar · February 23

Nigelb said:
Any such intervention would be extremely unlikely from a Trump administration.

How U.S. Pressure Helped Save Brazil’s Democracy
Mounting evidence suggests Biden kept pro-Bolsonaro generals from executing a coup.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/20/brazil-bolsonaro-coup-us-biden-democracy-election-chips-lula/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921

Brazil offers a taste of the sort of democracy you end up with if judges start banning candidates from running for office (Lula 2018, Bolsanaro 2026)

williamglenn · February 23

bondegezou said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
Ceteris paribus, I'd rather have a country that is committed to its NATO obligations on mutual defence, but only spending 1.5% than a country spending >2% that suggests it won't honour those obligations.

NATO doesn't actually oblige any member state to go to war on behalf of another. That's a misunderstanding of Article 5.

bondegezou · February 23

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

MoonRabbit said:
On Polling. One thing that’s being proved wrong - collapse of the SNP under its new leader, who was supposed to be useless and prove a disaster wasn’t he? Under this leader, and in spite in how criminally corrupt the old leadership appears to have been, the SNP are still polling strongly. Their polling numbers look healthy, the number of seats they retain at General Election could prove very healthy as well.
On every Scottish Westminster poll this year the SNP are polling well below 2019 so will certainly lose seats, indeed on all but 1 poll they are even polling worse than 2017 when they lost 21 seats. So this will almost certainly be the worst UK general election result for the SNP since 2010 and could even see Labour win more Scottish seats than them. Indeed the latest Redfield Scottish figures have Scottish Labour ahead of the SNP now

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland#Poll_results
The Scottish polls following yesterday will be very interesting

No, they won't. Polls very rarely shift in reaction to events (outside of election campaigns). An abstruse argument over Parliamentary rules ain't gonna shift views.

RochdalePioneers · February 23

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems Mercedes has put a brake on evs and will continue to produce petrol and diesel cars well beyond 2030

https://twitter.com/PeterSweden7/status/1761005209612890563?t=jL-DmKfoJ7imhDRJtKLwcw&s=19

Not sure my purchase of a petrol Mercedes in the last month has been a factor !!

Hardly a surprise. Markets will not be remotely ready for 100% of new cars being EVs in 2030. Also helps a legacy monolith like Mercedes catch up with Chinese technology / production methods.

bondegezou · February 23

williamglenn said:

bondegezou said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
Ceteris paribus, I'd rather have a country that is committed to its NATO obligations on mutual defence, but only spending 1.5% than a country spending >2% that suggests it won't honour those obligations.
NATO doesn't actually oblige any member state to go to war on behalf of another. That's a misunderstanding of Article 5.

Did I say anything about being obliged "to go to war on behalf of another"? No. I referred to "obligations on mutual defence".

david_herdson · February 23

williamglenn said:

bondegezou said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
Ceteris paribus, I'd rather have a country that is committed to its NATO obligations on mutual defence, but only spending 1.5% than a country spending >2% that suggests it won't honour those obligations.
NATO doesn't actually oblige any member state to go to war on behalf of another. That's a misunderstanding of Article 5.

It is, nonetheless, the practical understanding of the Treaty, and has been for decades - at least inasfar as the European theatre is concerned. To start to unravel that with a load of legalese is to invite Putin to attack just as much as Trump's more direct comments do.

It's not a game.

Stuartinromford · February 23

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cicero said:
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.

For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.

The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.

And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.

The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.

Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.

williamglenn · February 23

bondegezou said:

williamglenn said:

bondegezou said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
Ceteris paribus, I'd rather have a country that is committed to its NATO obligations on mutual defence, but only spending 1.5% than a country spending >2% that suggests it won't honour those obligations.
NATO doesn't actually oblige any member state to go to war on behalf of another. That's a misunderstanding of Article 5.
Did I say anything about being obliged "to go to war on behalf of another"? No. I referred to "obligations on mutual defence".

But that's the way most people think about it, and where they think Trump is transgressing. The common assumption is that if you attack a NATO country then the US will retaliate against you, but that's not what the NATO treaty actually says.

david_herdson · February 23

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

MoonRabbit said:
“My expectation is that Sunak will call the general election later on this year”

🤬
Maybe Sunak will surprise everyone and go for 23rd January.
He still has to call that in 2024. Several of us have called this as the date of the next election. Three days after we celebrate the Trump funfest.

Technically, he doesn't have to call it at all; it just happens automatically if this parliament expires.

williamglenn · February 23

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cicero said:
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.

For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.

The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.

And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.

Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.

My prediciton is that the centre ground will be further right under Starmer than it is now under the Tories.

Jim_Miller · February 23

Off topic, but definitely worth reading: This extended interview with General Petraeus on the way in Ukraine: "Two years into the Ukraine war, the tide has shifted, and Russian forces have some momentum, according to retired US General David Petraeus.

But he said the Russians have suffered staggering casualties and Ukraine can still hold its own in fighting off Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion if it gets the support it needs from the United States."
source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/opinion-who-is-winning-gen-petraeus-on-ukraine-war-two-years-in/ar-BB1iKThS?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=701323af64e94f1fb62b6184a886b2f8&ei=11

(I found his thoughts about Ukrainian successes in the Black Sea especially interesting. He doesn't mention this, but I did wonder whether the Royal Navy might deserve some credit for those successes.)

Copied from previous thread.

Anabobazina · February 23

Anabobazina said:

williamglenn said:

Anabobazina said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
You didn't answer my question yesterday.

Are you supporting Trump for the presidency in 2024?
I don't have a vote, but I think British people should regard a Trump presidency with more equanimity.
LOL. Weasel words.

If you did have a vote, how would you cast it?

If you have a few minutes to kill it’s quite fun asking ‘William Glenn” direct questions and watch him squirm, or ignore them.

Nigelb · February 23

david_herdson said:

williamglenn said:

bondegezou said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
Ceteris paribus, I'd rather have a country that is committed to its NATO obligations on mutual defence, but only spending 1.5% than a country spending >2% that suggests it won't honour those obligations.
NATO doesn't actually oblige any member state to go to war on behalf of another. That's a misunderstanding of Article 5.
It is, nonetheless, the practical understanding of the Treaty, and has been for decades - at least inasfar as the European theatre is concerned. To start to unravel that with a load of legalese is to invite Putin to attack just as much as Trump's more direct comments do.

It's not a game.

The value of the alliance is directly proportional to the belief in its mutual commitments being honoured.
Absent that, it's about as useful as the Minsk agreement.

bondegezou · February 23

williamglenn said:

bondegezou said:

williamglenn said:

bondegezou said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
Ceteris paribus, I'd rather have a country that is committed to its NATO obligations on mutual defence, but only spending 1.5% than a country spending >2% that suggests it won't honour those obligations.
NATO doesn't actually oblige any member state to go to war on behalf of another. That's a misunderstanding of Article 5.
Did I say anything about being obliged "to go to war on behalf of another"? No. I referred to "obligations on mutual defence".
But that's the way most people think about it, and where they think Trump is transgressing. The common assumption is that if you attack a NATO country then the US will retaliate against you, but that's not what the NATO treaty actually says.

So what? That's tangential to the point that Trump is undermining NATO and its obligations to mutual defence.

nico679 · February 23

What exactly does Trump have to do to lose support from some Tories .

It’s extraordinary . The list of what would normally disqualify any other candidate seems to elicit a shrug from the UK Trump fan club .

williamglenn · February 23

Nigelb said:

david_herdson said:

williamglenn said:

bondegezou said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
Ceteris paribus, I'd rather have a country that is committed to its NATO obligations on mutual defence, but only spending 1.5% than a country spending >2% that suggests it won't honour those obligations.
NATO doesn't actually oblige any member state to go to war on behalf of another. That's a misunderstanding of Article 5.
It is, nonetheless, the practical understanding of the Treaty, and has been for decades - at least inasfar as the European theatre is concerned. To start to unravel that with a load of legalese is to invite Putin to attack just as much as Trump's more direct comments do.

It's not a game.
The value of the alliance is directly proportional to the belief in its mutual commitments being honoured.
Absent that, it's about as useful as the Minsk agreement.

Then you must be absolutely livid with the countries that signed up to a spending commitment and then year after year failed to meet it? What message do you think that sent about the seriousness with which they took their commitments?

Chris · February 23

If I were disposed to be frightened about the future, China would frighten me more than Russia, and AI would frighten me more than either.

RochdalePioneers · February 23

david_herdson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Andy_JS said:

MoonRabbit said:
“My expectation is that Sunak will call the general election later on this year”

🤬
Maybe Sunak will surprise everyone and go for 23rd January.
He still has to call that in 2024. Several of us have called this as the date of the next election. Three days after we celebrate the Trump funfest.
Technically, he doesn't have to call it at all; it just happens automatically if this parliament expires.

The easiest decision is indecision. And having decided in late March to hope that something turns up there will always be a reason not to call an "early" election. Aside from the brutal judgement of the electorate we also have the CHOGM meeting & King's tour of Australasia and the US election.

The inertia to not make a decision will weigh heavily on anyone's suggestions to "go now". Which is why if we get to the end of March and they haven't called an election I think we get into late vs later...

david_herdson · February 23

nico679 said:
What exactly does Trump have to do to lose support from some Tories .

It’s extraordinary . The list of what would normally disqualify any other candidate seems to elicit a shrug from the UK Trump fan club .

Johnson opened the door to this. Any means are acceptable if they produce the desired ends. For others, it's just (misguided) diplomatic silence bordering on cowardice. They know Trump will react very badly to being criticised, that he holds grudges tightly and that the UK and Europe needs the US. But that third part is in error. Whether or not Europe needs the US, a Trumpite US would not deliver - or only at an very high price.

Luckyguy1983 · February 23

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:
Liz Trump.
I nearly made that typo in the header.

No point in gilding the lily.

MikeL · February 23

Given Trump's lack of support for Ukraine it is simply unfathomable how Truss could say the West is safer with Trump than Biden.

Whilst people are understandably questioning Biden's mental state given his age and various gaffes, given Truss's comments it would appear more appropriate to be questioning her mental state.

Her lack of self awareness is off the scale. I've voted Conservative at every election in the last 20 years and under no circumstances would I even consider voting for a party led by Truss. If she was leader it really would be a Canadian style Conservative wipeout.

Big_G_NorthWales · February 23

bondegezou said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

MoonRabbit said:
On Polling. One thing that’s being proved wrong - collapse of the SNP under its new leader, who was supposed to be useless and prove a disaster wasn’t he? Under this leader, and in spite in how criminally corrupt the old leadership appears to have been, the SNP are still polling strongly. Their polling numbers look healthy, the number of seats they retain at General Election could prove very healthy as well.
On every Scottish Westminster poll this year the SNP are polling well below 2019 so will certainly lose seats, indeed on all but 1 poll they are even polling worse than 2017 when they lost 21 seats. So this will almost certainly be the worst UK general election result for the SNP since 2010 and could even see Labour win more Scottish seats than them. Indeed the latest Redfield Scottish figures have Scottish Labour ahead of the SNP now

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland#Poll_results
The Scottish polls following yesterday will be very interesting
No, they won't. Polls very rarely shift in reaction to events (outside of election campaigns). An abstruse argument over Parliamentary rules ain't gonna shift views.

This is not an abstruse argument in Scotland

It is SNP v English Westminster - a timeless topic

GIN1138 · February 23

Anabobazina said:
Will Liz Trump be making a leadership challenge against Sunny Boy?

Has her time come???

Her time came... and went... In 49 days! 😂

Nigelb · February 23

david_herdson said:

nico679 said:
What exactly does Trump have to do to lose support from some Tories .

It’s extraordinary . The list of what would normally disqualify any other candidate seems to elicit a shrug from the UK Trump fan club .
Johnson opened the door to this. Any means are acceptable if they produce the desired ends. For others, it's just (misguided) diplomatic silence bordering on cowardice. They know Trump will react very badly to being criticised, that he holds grudges tightly and that the UK and Europe needs the US. But that third part is in error. Whether or not Europe needs the US, a Trumpite US would not deliver - or only at an very high price.

It's not entirely dissimilar with the strategic miscalculation Germany made in its relationship with Russia.
While they've since realised the magnitude of that error, and significantly reversed policy, it still tends to colour their thinking on Ukraine (see, for example, the continuing hesitation over supplying Taurus missiles, despite their Parliament's recent vote to supply "long range weapons").

LostPassword · February 23

Isn't it more likely the case that, if the UK GE is within days of the US election, that Trump is less likely to say anything about the UK election, because he will have his own election to fight.

More of a problem for the US-obsessed BBC, though.

david_herdson · February 23

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:
Liz Trump.
I nearly made that typo in the header.

Although there is a somewhat pregnant pause after catamites?

williamglenn · February 23

Nigelb said:

david_herdson said:

nico679 said:
What exactly does Trump have to do to lose support from some Tories .

It’s extraordinary . The list of what would normally disqualify any other candidate seems to elicit a shrug from the UK Trump fan club .
Johnson opened the door to this. Any means are acceptable if they produce the desired ends. For others, it's just (misguided) diplomatic silence bordering on cowardice. They know Trump will react very badly to being criticised, that he holds grudges tightly and that the UK and Europe needs the US. But that third part is in error. Whether or not Europe needs the US, a Trumpite US would not deliver - or only at an very high price.
It's not entirely dissimilar with the strategic miscalculation Germany made in its relationship with Russia.
While they've since realised the magnitude of that error, and significantly reversed policy, it still tends to colour their thinking on Ukraine (see, for example, the continuing hesitation over supplying Taurus missiles, despite their Parliament's recent vote to supply "long range weapons").

If you think that, then does it not follow that the answer is to become more independent of the US, not to become more engaged with its domestic politics to the extent that we need to take sides in its elections?

Anabobazina · February 23

GIN1138 said:

Anabobazina said:
Will Liz Trump be making a leadership challenge against Sunny Boy?

Has her time come???
Her time came... and went... In 49 days! 😂

The Second Coming of Truss??

Mexicanpete · February 23

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
You seem very sanguine about the whole affair. Have you been pencilled in for a place in the UK Politburo?
This strikes me as completely hysterical. Do you seriously think there is a risk of our being occupied by Russia?

Yeah, you must be right.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-jets-simulate-bombing-raids-on-britain/

SandyRentool · February 23

I guess I need to change my avatar to The Truss holding something fat and orange.

Later...

williamglenn · February 23

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
You seem very sanguine about the whole affair. Have you been pencilled in for a place in the UK Politburo?
This strikes me as completely hysterical. Do you seriously think there is a risk of our being occupied by Russia?
Yeah, you must be right.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-jets-simulate-bombing-raids-on-britain/

And?

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british-carrier-launches-jets-for-simulated-combat-missions/

StillWaters · February 23

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cicero said:
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.

For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.

The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.

And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.

Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who
could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.

Meh. They’ll be back.

Last time this happened (in the 1840s) they were back in government within 20 years in a moderate frame

Mexicanpete · February 23

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
You seem very sanguine about the whole affair. Have you been pencilled in for a place in the UK Politburo?
This strikes me as completely hysterical. Do you seriously think there is a risk of our being occupied by Russia?
Yeah, you must be right.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-jets-simulate-bombing-raids-on-britain/
And?

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british-carrier-launches-jets-for-simulated-combat-missions/

We simulate combat sorties for a reason. It's a bit like carrying out a fire drill in case of a future fire.

Nigelb · February 23

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

david_herdson said:

nico679 said:
What exactly does Trump have to do to lose support from some Tories .

It’s extraordinary . The list of what would normally disqualify any other candidate seems to elicit a shrug from the UK Trump fan club .
Johnson opened the door to this. Any means are acceptable if they produce the desired ends. For others, it's just (misguided) diplomatic silence bordering on cowardice. They know Trump will react very badly to being criticised, that he holds grudges tightly and that the UK and Europe needs the US. But that third part is in error. Whether or not Europe needs the US, a Trumpite US would not deliver - or only at an very high price.
It's not entirely dissimilar with the strategic miscalculation Germany made in its relationship with Russia.
While they've since realised the magnitude of that error, and significantly reversed policy, it still tends to colour their thinking on Ukraine (see, for example, the continuing hesitation over supplying Taurus missiles, despite their Parliament's recent vote to supply "long range weapons").
If you think that, then does it not follow that the answer is to become more independent of the US, not to become more engaged with its domestic politics to the extent that we need to take sides in its elections?

The thread header is literally about Truss doing that.

Luckyguy1983 · February 23

Liz Truss - usually unpopular, usually right.

LostPassword · February 23

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cicero said:
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.

For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.

The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.

And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.

Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.

Remember that even Cameron had to throw the Tory membership some right-wing promises to win the leadership. Remember back when tim used to bang on about the Latvian homophobes Cameron was cosying up with after taking the Tories out of the European People's Party?

The best-case scenario for the Tories is that they elect as leader someone who has well-established right-wing bonafides, but who has the good sense to lead the party back towards the centre.

GIN1138 · February 23

Anabobazina said:

GIN1138 said:

Anabobazina said:
Will Liz Trump be making a leadership challenge against Sunny Boy?

Has her time come???
Her time came... and went... In 49 days! 😂
The Second Coming of Truss??

She came in just long enough to see off our dear old Queen, so if she does have a second coming, Chas had better watch out...

Nigelb · February 23

For real, can we recap: Sitting members of Congress initiated IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS against a U.S. President based on information passed to them by an agent of Russian intelligence. Same members refuse to pass aid to Ukraine. Same members defend Trump.
https://twitter.com/AshaRangappa_/status/1760135573942014311

But we shouldn't be "taking sides" - unless it's to defend Truss taking sides.

Or say that Trump is good for NATO.

williamglenn · February 23

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:
...
williamglenn said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.

Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
Yeah, right.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-russia-nato/index.html
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.

Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.

You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.

If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
You seem very sanguine about the whole affair. Have you been pencilled in for a place in the UK Politburo?
This strikes me as completely hysterical. Do you seriously think there is a risk of our being occupied by Russia?
Yeah, you must be right.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-jets-simulate-bombing-raids-on-britain/
And?

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british-carrier-launches-jets-for-simulated-combat-missions/
We simulate combat sorties for a reason. It's a bit like carrying out a fire drill in case of a future fire.

Your a bit of a nationalist really. When we do it, it's good. When they do it, it's evil.

GIN1138 · February 23

Didn't Biden criticize Truss after her and Kwasi tanked the economy?

She's probably bitter over that...

LDLF · February 23

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cicero said:
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.

For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.

The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.

And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.

Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.

It is hard to tell at this point.
It is worth noting that, after the Labour election loss in 2019, it was hard to see a candidate who both could win with the membership and was untainted by the Corbyn regime. The eventual leadership winner called Corbyn his best buddy ever, said Corbyn was not racist but had been unfairly traduced by the evil media, and pledged to continue on his good work.

For the Conservatives it is MPs who have to choose the final two, and the MPs who are likely to be left after the election would be 'Sunakite' rather than Trumpist.

I agree that Tom Tugendhat seems a good bet. There is a reason that Liz Truss needs to cross the Atlantic to find a friendly audience, and the UK Tories should take note. As with Theresa May in 2016, Tugendhat may be the only one left standing.

There is a balance to be struck. I think the next successful Tory leader (that is, taking them back into government), will be sensible, but probably run (at least in part) against the self-proclaimed 'Sensibles'. This is still centrism, but of a specific, 'anti-Vordemanist' kind.

Whether that happens in five, ten, or fifteen years is only partly in their own party's hands. It all depends on how interested they are in victory.

darkage · February 23

david_herdson said:

nico679 said:
What exactly does Trump have to do to lose support from some Tories .

It’s extraordinary . The list of what would normally disqualify any other candidate seems to elicit a shrug from the UK Trump fan club .
Johnson opened the door to this. Any means are acceptable if they produce the desired ends. For others, it's just (misguided) diplomatic silence bordering on cowardice. They know Trump will react very badly to being criticised, that he holds grudges tightly and that the UK and Europe needs the US. But that third part is in error. Whether or not Europe needs the US, a Trumpite US would not deliver - or only at an very high price.

Europe needs to look after itself - Trump is quite good at focussing attention on this which is no bad thing.

Nigelb · February 23

Luckyguy1983 said:
Liz Truss - usually unpopular, usually right.

I'm beginning to appreciate your very dry sense of humour.

You're really DougSeal in disguise.

TheScreamingEagles · February 23

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:
Liz Trump.
I nearly made that typo in the header.
Although there is a somewhat pregnant pause after catamites?

Oops, fixed now.

david_herdson · February 23

darkage said:

david_herdson said:

nico679 said:
What exactly does Trump have to do to lose support from some Tories .

It’s extraordinary . The list of what would normally disqualify any other candidate seems to elicit a shrug from the UK Trump fan club .
Johnson opened the door to this. Any means are acceptable if they produce the desired ends. For others, it's just (misguided) diplomatic silence bordering on cowardice. They know Trump will react very badly to being criticised, that he holds grudges tightly and that the UK and Europe needs the US. But that third part is in error. Whether or not Europe needs the US, a Trumpite US would not deliver - or only at an very high price.
Europe needs to look after itself - Trump is quite good at focussing attention on this which is no bad thing.

It is very much a bad thing if it invites war. Particularly so if it invites war before Europe is ready for it.

That Europe does need to look after itself, I agree.

Mexicanpete · February 23

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seems Mercedes has put a brake on evs and will continue to produce petrol and diesel cars well beyond 2030

https://twitter.com/PeterSweden7/status/1761005209612890563?t=jL-DmKfoJ7imhDRJtKLwcw&s=19

Not sure my purchase of a petrol Mercedes in the last month has been a factor !!
Hardly a surprise. Markets will not be remotely ready for 100% of new cars being EVs in 2030. Also helps a legacy monolith like Mercedes catch up with Chinese technology / production methods.

Although for those of us who follow your YouTube channel, the YouTube algorithm offers alternative stories of some very impressive looking Chinese EV manufacturers going under.

Leon · February 23

williamglenn said:

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cicero said:
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.

For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.

The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.

And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.

Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
My prediciton is that the centre ground will be further right under Starmer than it is now under the Tories.

In 5-10 years the centre ground in UK politics will be waaaaay to the right of the sunakite Tories

We have merely delayed our Le Pen Moment with Brexit. It’s still coming

Chris · February 23

Nigelb said:

Luckyguy1983 said:
Liz Truss - usually unpopular, usually right.
I'm beginning to appreciate your very dry sense of humour.

You're really DougSeal in disguise.

No, he's just proof of Internet Rule 34: No matter how much stupidity you can imagine, there's always someone stupider.

Howdy, Stranger!

Quick Links

Categories

The problems with having two massive elections at the same time – politicalbetting.com

Comments