Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.
Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.
Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.
You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.
If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
You seem very sanguine about the whole affair. Have you been pencilled in for a place in the UK Politburo?
This strikes me as completely hysterical. Do you seriously think there is a risk of our being occupied by Russia?
Off topic, but definitely worth reading: This extended interview with General Petraeus on the way in Ukraine: "Two years into the Ukraine war, the tide has shifted, and Russian forces have some momentum, according to retired US General David Petraeus.
(I found his thoughts about Ukrainian successes in the Black Sea especially interesting. He doesn't mention this, but I did wonder whether the Royal Navy might deserve some credit for those successes.)
Copied from previous thread.
Schapps said this in Parliament a day ago.
Our mighty Storm Shadows and our uncrewed sea systems have helped Ukraine achieve a breakthrough in the Black sea.
Supposedly disowned Labour Party candidate, Azhar Ali, seen today lunching with the Labour group on Lancashire council including parliamentary candidates.
However hard Starmer tries the Party still has a long way to go.
On Polling. One thing that’s being proved wrong - collapse of the SNP under its new leader, who was supposed to be useless and prove a disaster wasn’t he? Under this leader, and in spite in how criminally corrupt the old leadership appears to have been, the SNP are still polling strongly. Their polling numbers look healthy, the number of seats they retain at General Election could prove very healthy as well.
On every Scottish Westminster poll this year the SNP are polling well below 2019 so will certainly lose seats, indeed on all but 1 poll they are even polling worse than 2017 when they lost 21 seats. So this will almost certainly be the worst UK general election result for the SNP since 2010 and could even see Labour win more Scottish seats than them. Indeed the latest Redfield Scottish figures have Scottish Labour ahead of the SNP now
Wait. Can you see, you are proving my point with the bare facts?
Down on 2019, even 1 poll saying down on 2017 - what does that mean, when those years were so fantastic for SNP seat return?
And you say “only one poll has Labour ahead of SNP”? It’s not a poll or seat collapse is it, despite everything thrown at them and portents of doom, it’s very sticky in fact.
And why? Malc suggests it’s despite some good reason not to vote SNP at this time, nothing else truly appeals or inspires in order to seal the vote switch.
Getting this deep into General Election year, political betting wise it looks like another large bloc of SNP in the next parliament isn’t it? Not much helping hand for Starmer coming over Hadrians Wall.
Supposedly disowned Labour Party candidate, Azhar Ali, seen today lunching with the Labour group on Lancashire council including parliamentary candidates.
However hard Starmer tries the Party still has a long way to go.
Yet, you still can’t tell us anything at all this moderate politician, who set up Islam Against Anti-semitism, actually said that was anti-Semitic, can you?
On Polling. One thing that’s being proved wrong - collapse of the SNP under its new leader, who was supposed to be useless and prove a disaster wasn’t he? Under this leader, and in spite in how criminally corrupt the old leadership appears to have been, the SNP are still polling strongly. Their polling numbers look healthy, the number of seats they retain at General Election could prove very healthy as well.
On every Scottish Westminster poll this year the SNP are polling well below 2019 so will certainly lose seats, indeed on all but 1 poll they are even polling worse than 2017 when they lost 21 seats. So this will almost certainly be the worst UK general election result for the SNP since 2010 and could even see Labour win more Scottish seats than them. Indeed the latest Redfield Scottish figures have Scottish Labour ahead of the SNP now
Wait. Can you see, you are proving my point with the bare facts?
Down on 2019, even 1 poll saying down on 2017 - what does that mean, when those years were so fantastic for SNP seat return?
And you say “only one poll has Labour ahead of SNP”? It’s not a poll or seat collapse is it, despite everything thrown at them and portents of doom, it’s very sticky in fact.
And why? Malc suggests it’s despite some good reason not to vote SNP at this time, nothing else truly appeals or inspires in order to seal the vote switch.
Getting this deep into General Election year, political betting wise it looks like another large bloc of SNP in the next parliament isn’t it? Not much helping hand for Starmer coming over Hadrians Wall.
The latest polls for the 6 pollsters to conduct Scotland surveys since the Rutherglen by-election give an average of: Lab 34.8%, SNP 34.7%.
That would be a 13.3% swing since GE19 and, given that Scotland looks like SNP vs the rest, that suggests a bigger swing where Labour is the competitor (e.g. Labour wouldn't be likely to achieve a 13% swing on the SNP in Fife NE).
On Polling. One thing that’s being proved wrong - collapse of the SNP under its new leader, who was supposed to be useless and prove a disaster wasn’t he? Under this leader, and in spite in how criminally corrupt the old leadership appears to have been, the SNP are still polling strongly. Their polling numbers look healthy, the number of seats they retain at General Election could prove very healthy as well.
Well, with Wednesday's advertisement for how good the Westminster Parliament is, where else do supporters of Scottish independence have to go?
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
It is hard to tell at this point. It is worth noting that, after the Labour election loss in 2019, it was hard to see a candidate who both could win with the membership and was untainted by the Corbyn regime. The eventual leadership winner called Corbyn his best buddy ever, said Corbyn was not racist but had been unfairly traduced by the evil media, and pledged to continue on his good work.
For the Conservatives it is MPs who have to choose the final two, and the MPs who are likely to be left after the election would be 'Sunakite' rather than Trumpist.
I agree that Tom Tugendhat seems a good bet. There is a reason that Liz Truss needs to cross the Atlantic to find a friendly audience, and the UK Tories should take note. As with Theresa May in 2016, Tugendhat may be the only one left standing.
There is a balance to be struck. I think the next successful Tory leader (that is, taking them back into government), will be sensible, but probably run (at least in part) against the self-proclaimed 'Sensibles'. This is still centrism, but of a specific, 'anti-Vordemanist' kind.
Whether that happens in five, ten, or fifteen years is only partly in their own party's hands. It all depends on how interested they are in victory.
Ultimately, nobody knows what's going to happen in the 2024 to 2029 Parliament. My guess is that it'll play out much more like 74-79 than 97-01 but that's only a guess.
The Tories might go spinning off into the extremes and make Farage leader or they might choose a more moderate candidate - It will very much depend how big the defeat is and who is left in the Parliamentary Party.
Also, nobody knows how bad Labour will be (they're going to be bad, but how bad?)
What's going to happen in the US? What's going to happen with Russia? In 2029 we might be starting WWIII or the Russian dictator might be history and we're having a quieter period without continuous global calamities taking place.
As you point out, in December 2019 everyone's expectations was that it would take a decade for Labour to recover from their defeat and from Corbyn's toxicity yet within a couple of years they were back in the game.
Not sure my purchase of a petrol Mercedes in the last month has been a factor !!
Hardly a surprise. Markets will not be remotely ready for 100% of new cars being EVs in 2030. Also helps a legacy monolith like Mercedes catch up with Chinese technology / production methods.
Although for those of us who follow your YouTube channel, the YouTube algorithm offers alternative stories of some very impressive looking Chinese EV manufacturers going under.
There will be more of that - they just get gobbled up by giant ones like SAIC.
From John Gray. "If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets. Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
It is hard to tell at this point. It is worth noting that, after the Labour election loss in 2019, it was hard to see a candidate who both could win with the membership and was untainted by the Corbyn regime. The eventual leadership winner called Corbyn his best buddy ever, said Corbyn was not racist but had been unfairly traduced by the evil media, and pledged to continue on his good work.
For the Conservatives it is MPs who have to choose the final two, and the MPs who are likely to be left after the election would be 'Sunakite' rather than Trumpist.
I agree that Tom Tugendhat seems a good bet. There is a reason that Liz Truss needs to cross the Atlantic to find a friendly audience, and the UK Tories should take note. As with Theresa May in 2016, Tugendhat may be the only one left standing.
There is a balance to be struck. I think the next successful Tory leader (that is, taking them back into government), will be sensible, but probably run (at least in part) against the self-proclaimed 'Sensibles'. This is still centrism, but of a specific, 'anti-Vordemanist' kind.
Whether that happens in five, ten, or fifteen years is only partly in their own party's hands. It all depends on how interested they are in victory.
Ultimately, nobody knows what's going to happen in the 2024 to 2029 Parliament. My guess is that it'll play out much more like 74-79 than 97-01 but that's only a guess.
The Tories might go spinning off into the extremes and make Farage leader or they might choose a more moderate candidate - It will very much depend how big the defeat is and who is left in the Parliamentary Party.
Also, nobody knows how bad Labour will be (they're going to be bad, but how bad?)
What's going to happen in the US? What's going to happen with Russia? In 2029 we might be starting WWIII or the Russian dictator might be history and we're having a quieter period without continuous global calamities taking place.
As you point out, in December 2019 everyone's expectations was that it would take a decade for Labour to recover from their defeat and from Corbyn's toxicity yet within a couple of years they were back in the game.
We live in volatile times. Expect the unexpected.
Sir Keith “Special K” Stormer will be a GOOD PM. You heard it here first!
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
It is hard to tell at this point. It is worth noting that, after the Labour election loss in 2019, it was hard to see a candidate who both could win with the membership and was untainted by the Corbyn regime. The eventual leadership winner called Corbyn his best buddy ever, said Corbyn was not racist but had been unfairly traduced by the evil media, and pledged to continue on his good work.
For the Conservatives it is MPs who have to choose the final two, and the MPs who are likely to be left after the election would be 'Sunakite' rather than Trumpist.
I agree that Tom Tugendhat seems a good bet. There is a reason that Liz Truss needs to cross the Atlantic to find a friendly audience, and the UK Tories should take note. As with Theresa May in 2016, Tugendhat may be the only one left standing.
There is a balance to be struck. I think the next successful Tory leader (that is, taking them back into government), will be sensible, but probably run (at least in part) against the self-proclaimed 'Sensibles'. This is still centrism, but of a specific, 'anti-Vordemanist' kind.
Whether that happens in five, ten, or fifteen years is only partly in their own party's hands. It all depends on how interested they are in victory.
Ultimately, nobody knows what's going to happen in the 2024 to 2029 Parliament. My guess is that it'll play out much more like 74-79 than 97-01 but that's only a guess.
The Tories might go spinning off into the extremes and make Farage leader or they might choose a more moderate candidate - It will very much depend how big the defeat is and who is left in the Parliamentary Party.
Also, nobody knows how bad Labour will be (they're going to be bad, but how bad?)
What's going to happen in the US? What's going to happen with Russia? In 2029 we might be starting WWIII or the Russian dictator might be history and we're having a quieter period without continuous global calamities taking place.
As you point out, in December 2019 everyone's expectations was that it would take a decade for Labour to recover from their defeat and from Corbyn's toxicity yet within a couple of years they were back in the game.
We live in volatile times. Expect the unexpected.
Regarding Labour, of course they could be bad, and I understand you expect them to be bad, but the truth is, like the other things you refer to, nobody knows.
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
It is hard to tell at this point. It is worth noting that, after the Labour election loss in 2019, it was hard to see a candidate who both could win with the membership and was untainted by the Corbyn regime. The eventual leadership winner called Corbyn his best buddy ever, said Corbyn was not racist but had been unfairly traduced by the evil media, and pledged to continue on his good work.
For the Conservatives it is MPs who have to choose the final two, and the MPs who are likely to be left after the election would be 'Sunakite' rather than Trumpist.
I agree that Tom Tugendhat seems a good bet. There is a reason that Liz Truss needs to cross the Atlantic to find a friendly audience, and the UK Tories should take note. As with Theresa May in 2016, Tugendhat may be the only one left standing.
There is a balance to be struck. I think the next successful Tory leader (that is, taking them back into government), will be sensible, but probably run (at least in part) against the self-proclaimed 'Sensibles'. This is still centrism, but of a specific, 'anti-Vordemanist' kind.
Whether that happens in five, ten, or fifteen years is only partly in their own party's hands. It all depends on how interested they are in victory.
Ultimately, nobody knows what's going to happen in the 2024 to 2029 Parliament. My guess is that it'll play out much more like 74-79 than 97-01 but that's only a guess.
The Tories might go spinning off into the extremes and make Farage leader or they might choose a more moderate candidate - It will very much depend how big the defeat is and who is left in the Parliamentary Party.
Also, nobody knows how bad Labour will be (they're going to be bad, but how bad?)
What's going to happen in the US? What's going to happen with Russia? In 2029 we might be starting WWIII or the Russian dictator might be history and we're having a quieter period without continuous global calamities taking place.
As you point out, in December 2019 everyone's expectations was that it would take a decade for Labour to recover from their defeat and from Corbyn's toxicity yet within a couple of years they were back in the game.
We live in volatile times. Expect the unexpected.
Not everyone, even at the time I said Bozo would be the last Tory PM - and it’s only because he self destructed so early that he isn’t
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
It is hard to tell at this point. It is worth noting that, after the Labour election loss in 2019, it was hard to see a candidate who both could win with the membership and was untainted by the Corbyn regime. The eventual leadership winner called Corbyn his best buddy ever, said Corbyn was not racist but had been unfairly traduced by the evil media, and pledged to continue on his good work.
For the Conservatives it is MPs who have to choose the final two, and the MPs who are likely to be left after the election would be 'Sunakite' rather than Trumpist.
I agree that Tom Tugendhat seems a good bet. There is a reason that Liz Truss needs to cross the Atlantic to find a friendly audience, and the UK Tories should take note. As with Theresa May in 2016, Tugendhat may be the only one left standing.
There is a balance to be struck. I think the next successful Tory leader (that is, taking them back into government), will be sensible, but probably run (at least in part) against the self-proclaimed 'Sensibles'. This is still centrism, but of a specific, 'anti-Vordemanist' kind.
Whether that happens in five, ten, or fifteen years is only partly in their own party's hands. It all depends on how interested they are in victory.
It was a 100 years of Conservatism in UK because it stood beside business, sound finance and fiscally the best option on the ballot paper, whilst offering aspiration to the working classes. Its client media clearly does not believe in that anymore, wherever it gets in the way of Popular Right Wing ideology, and the Tory Party has followed the client media.
Can you not see, respect for institutions, political opponents, and the checks and balances on political power, this so called Conservative Party no longer believes in 😕
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
It is hard to tell at this point. It is worth noting that, after the Labour election loss in 2019, it was hard to see a candidate who both could win with the membership and was untainted by the Corbyn regime. The eventual leadership winner called Corbyn his best buddy ever, said Corbyn was not racist but had been unfairly traduced by the evil media, and pledged to continue on his good work.
For the Conservatives it is MPs who have to choose the final two, and the MPs who are likely to be left after the election would be 'Sunakite' rather than Trumpist.
I agree that Tom Tugendhat seems a good bet. There is a reason that Liz Truss needs to cross the Atlantic to find a friendly audience, and the UK Tories should take note. As with Theresa May in 2016, Tugendhat may be the only one left standing.
There is a balance to be struck. I think the next successful Tory leader (that is, taking them back into government), will be sensible, but probably run (at least in part) against the self-proclaimed 'Sensibles'. This is still centrism, but of a specific, 'anti-Vordemanist' kind.
Whether that happens in five, ten, or fifteen years is only partly in their own party's hands. It all depends on how interested they are in victory.
Ultimately, nobody knows what's going to happen in the 2024 to 2029 Parliament. My guess is that it'll play out much more like 74-79 than 97-01 but that's only a guess.
The Tories might go spinning off into the extremes and make Farage leader or they might choose a more moderate candidate - It will very much depend how big the defeat is and who is left in the Parliamentary Party.
Also, nobody knows how bad Labour will be (they're going to be bad, but how bad?)
What's going to happen in the US? What's going to happen with Russia? In 2029 we might be starting WWIII or the Russian dictator might be history and we're having a quieter period without continuous global calamities taking place.
As you point out, in December 2019 everyone's expectations was that it would take a decade for Labour to recover from their defeat and from Corbyn's toxicity yet within a couple of years they were back in the game.
We live in volatile times. Expect the unexpected.
Regarding Labour, of course they could be bad, and I understand you expect them to be bad, but the truth is, like the other things you refer to, nobody knows.
As you say: expect the unexpected.
Well, I hope you're right. Regardless, I'll be voting Labour at the next election as the number one priority is obviously to send the Tories into Opposition.
Where we go after that remains to be seen. My expectations are low (not helped by the shenanigans this week) but perhaps I'll be pleasantly surprised.
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
It is hard to tell at this point. It is worth noting that, after the Labour election loss in 2019, it was hard to see a candidate who both could win with the membership and was untainted by the Corbyn regime. The eventual leadership winner called Corbyn his best buddy ever, said Corbyn was not racist but had been unfairly traduced by the evil media, and pledged to continue on his good work.
For the Conservatives it is MPs who have to choose the final two, and the MPs who are likely to be left after the election would be 'Sunakite' rather than Trumpist.
I agree that Tom Tugendhat seems a good bet. There is a reason that Liz Truss needs to cross the Atlantic to find a friendly audience, and the UK Tories should take note. As with Theresa May in 2016, Tugendhat may be the only one left standing.
There is a balance to be struck. I think the next successful Tory leader (that is, taking them back into government), will be sensible, but probably run (at least in part) against the self-proclaimed 'Sensibles'. This is still centrism, but of a specific, 'anti-Vordemanist' kind.
Whether that happens in five, ten, or fifteen years is only partly in their own party's hands. It all depends on how interested they are in victory.
Ultimately, nobody knows what's going to happen in the 2024 to 2029 Parliament. My guess is that it'll play out much more like 74-79 than 97-01 but that's only a guess.
The Tories might go spinning off into the extremes and make Farage leader or they might choose a more moderate candidate - It will very much depend how big the defeat is and who is left in the Parliamentary Party.
Also, nobody knows how bad Labour will be (they're going to be bad, but how bad?)
What's going to happen in the US? What's going to happen with Russia? In 2029 we might be starting WWIII or the Russian dictator might be history and we're having a quieter period without continuous global calamities taking place.
As you point out, in December 2019 everyone's expectations was that it would take a decade for Labour to recover from their defeat and from Corbyn's toxicity yet within a couple of years they were back in the game.
We live in volatile times. Expect the unexpected.
Objection....They haven't got any moderate candidates.
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
It is hard to tell at this point. It is worth noting that, after the Labour election loss in 2019, it was hard to see a candidate who both could win with the membership and was untainted by the Corbyn regime. The eventual leadership winner called Corbyn his best buddy ever, said Corbyn was not racist but had been unfairly traduced by the evil media, and pledged to continue on his good work.
For the Conservatives it is MPs who have to choose the final two, and the MPs who are likely to be left after the election would be 'Sunakite' rather than Trumpist.
I agree that Tom Tugendhat seems a good bet. There is a reason that Liz Truss needs to cross the Atlantic to find a friendly audience, and the UK Tories should take note. As with Theresa May in 2016, Tugendhat may be the only one left standing.
There is a balance to be struck. I think the next successful Tory leader (that is, taking them back into government), will be sensible, but probably run (at least in part) against the self-proclaimed 'Sensibles'. This is still centrism, but of a specific, 'anti-Vordemanist' kind.
Whether that happens in five, ten, or fifteen years is only partly in their own party's hands. It all depends on how interested they are in victory.
Ultimately, nobody knows what's going to happen in the 2024 to 2029 Parliament. My guess is that it'll play out much more like 74-79 than 97-01 but that's only a guess.
The Tories might go spinning off into the extremes and make Farage leader or they might choose a more moderate candidate - It will very much depend how big the defeat is and who is left in the Parliamentary Party.
Also, nobody knows how bad Labour will be (they're going to be bad, but how bad?)
What's going to happen in the US? What's going to happen with Russia? In 2029 we might be starting WWIII or the Russian dictator might be history and we're having a quieter period without continuous global calamities taking place.
As you point out, in December 2019 everyone's expectations was that it would take a decade for Labour to recover from their defeat and from Corbyn's toxicity yet within a couple of years they were back in the game.
We live in volatile times. Expect the unexpected.
Objection....They haven't got any moderate candidates.
I mean you'd have Corbyn down as being pretty centrist...
From John Gray. "If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets. Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
“ – the destructive impact of free trade and mass immigration on the economic security of workers”
What I struggled with, and I still don’t really feel I’ve heard a satisfactory answer, is how left wingers who deride a free market agenda were ok, to put it mildly, with Freedom of Movement, when they are seemingly part of the same thing.
Trump is popular amongst Reform voters though, who the Tories have leaked to since 2019 as much as to Labour.
Truss is clearly looking to the conservative lecture circuit in the US and its well paid speeches, Trump will put America First with little care for the rest of the West
Truss clearly has had some sort of cognitive event. Boris Johnson on the other hand has a bigly inconsistency to explain. He has claimed to be the World beating batsman for an independent Ukraine yet he has now broken for the World's most high profile Putin enabler. How does he square that circle?
In practice Merkel and Obama did more to enable Putin than Trump.
How did that comment enable Putin? On the contrary it prompted an increase in seriousness about European defence.
How can I interpret that to help you out? Mr Putin if you would like to invade Europe, fill yer boots. I will not intervene.
Forgive my cynicism, but I don't believe Mr Trump is the cognitive genius you take him for. I do not believe his commentary was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European Defence policy.
You are in denial.
I didn't claim that it was designed as a lateral way of bolstering European defence policy, merely that that was the only direct consequence.
If you are so concerned about the credibility of collective defence, why not point the finger at those countries failing to meet their spending targets rather than at Trump ?
You seem very sanguine about the whole affair. Have you been pencilled in for a place in the UK Politburo?
This strikes me as completely hysterical. Do you seriously think there is a risk of our being occupied by Russia?
We simulate combat sorties for a reason. It's a bit like carrying out a fire drill in case of a future fire.
Your a bit of a nationalist really. When we do it, it's good. When they do it, it's evil.
...and unless and until I go live in another country (which I won't), that will remain the case. I'm not Russian. This is my land. We have to defend it. The fact that the Conservatives think that defence is less important than AI/Culture War/Deep State/whatever is the luxury value for today does not change that.
From John Gray. "If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets. Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
“ – the destructive impact of free trade and mass immigration on the economic security of workers”
What I struggled with, and I still don’t really feel I’ve heard a satisfactory answer, is how left wingers who deride a free market agenda were ok, to put it mildly, with Freedom of Movement, when they are seemingly part of the same thing.
Immigration has doubled since Freedom of Movement was ended. FoM was a red herring.
Not sure my purchase of a petrol Mercedes in the last month has been a factor !!
Hardly a surprise. Markets will not be remotely ready for 100% of new cars being EVs in 2030. Also helps a legacy monolith like Mercedes catch up with Chinese technology / production methods.
Or they, and other European manufacturers end up surrendering a significant share of the market to China. By 2030 running EVs - certainly from China - will be far more economic than continuing with ICE vehicles.
Trade barriers may well come into play, but aren't likely to be popular.
I know on PB. we're used to finding meaning from a well turned phrase....
But this one rescued from the dying embers of the previous thread looks to be on another level ..........
(MOONRABBIT)
"There’s bits of this PB header sailing close to the siren voices of myopic fantasy that does not represent the full truth and history of the week".
Is this a compliment? 🤔
Yes! It was a mean spirited thread but that line was a gem. I couldn't say I understood it but it rolled around in my head which is more than I can say for anything else on there. And anyway some of the best lines don't make sense
From John Gray. "If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets. Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
“ – the destructive impact of free trade and mass immigration on the economic security of workers”
What I struggled with, and I still don’t really feel I’ve heard a satisfactory answer, is how left wingers who deride a free market agenda were ok, to put it mildly, with Freedom of Movement, when they are seemingly part of the same thing.
Immigration has doubled since Freedom of Movement was ended. FoM was a red herring.
And has this increase in immigration been opposed by left wingers?
From John Gray. "If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets. Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
“ – the destructive impact of free trade and mass immigration on the economic security of workers”
What I struggled with, and I still don’t really feel I’ve heard a satisfactory answer, is how left wingers who deride a free market agenda were ok, to put it mildly, with Freedom of Movement, when they are seemingly part of the same thing.
Immigration has doubled since Freedom of Movement was ended. FoM was a red herring.
And has this increase in immigration been opposed by left wingers?
Well they've voted against every administration for the last decade.
From John Gray. "If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets. Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
“ – the destructive impact of free trade and mass immigration on the economic security of workers”
What I struggled with, and I still don’t really feel I’ve heard a satisfactory answer, is how left wingers who deride a free market agenda were ok, to put it mildly, with Freedom of Movement, when they are seemingly part of the same thing.
Immigration has doubled since Freedom of Movement was ended. FoM was a red herring.
And has this increase in immigration been opposed by left wingers?
We should really have a debate on how likely the next election is to be a once in a century political upheaval that sees the replacement of one of the two main parties. It happened once in each of the previous two centuries after all.
Whilst I think it unlikely, the chances have to be higher now than they ever have been in my lifetime. 25% chance maybe?
For some real damage to be done, a diligent journalist needs to ask Donald Trump who he would advise people to vote for in the British general election. If Trump says the Conservatives, then the Conservatives will get hammered. And if he says Reform ... then the Conservatives will get hammered.
Despite whatever advice he is given, his vanity will ensure that he answers the question - but I think we can all agree that he is unlikely to recommend Labour or the Lib Dems....
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
My prediciton is that the centre ground will be further right under Starmer than it is now under the Tories.
In 5-10 years the centre ground in UK politics will be waaaaay to the right of the sunakite Tories
We have merely delayed our Le Pen Moment with Brexit. It’s still coming
A wish is not a claim upon reality.
In fact the dunderheaded Tories have failed to put forward any programme that could be dignified with the name of "Philosophy". They spout random populist slogans, often stolen from MAGA, or unworkable drivel like "Rwanda", which have little relevance to anyone beyond CCHQ or Doughty St. The real problems of administration are way too difficult for a Truss, Johnson or Shapps to grasp, even in outline, and even the pseudo-managerialism of Sunak just underlines how utterly inept and out of touch the right wing has become.
Yet some kind of realignment may well be coming. The empty slogans of vacuous and self interested right wing think tanks have been completely discredited, which means that some serious, Keith Joseph style, intellectual energy must be deployed. Perhaps traditionalists like Tugenhat might foster such a rebirth, but it is just as likely that the Tories may face an existential crisis and a whole new entity emerges as the clowns drift off towards Reform MAGAism, British style, and the centrists either re-found or reform the Conservatives, as happened in Canada after the Kim Campbell debacle. If so, at least 10-15 years out of power awaits. So, hardly a new right force here.
But such populism in both the US and the UK is visibly wilting under its own contradictions, and sending the right down a populist rabbit hole guarantees that they never return to power. So sure, yes, maybe the Tory centre of gravity heads rightwards, but if so, they become unelectable... ever. As for the UK, the populist spell is breaking and I see no interest in the shrill garbage of Truss, Mogg, Johnson or anyone else of that ilk.
It would be a fantastic irony if it turns out that Brexit has actually killed the Tory right as political force.
From John Gray. "If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets. Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
“ – the destructive impact of free trade and mass immigration on the economic security of workers”
What I struggled with, and I still don’t really feel I’ve heard a satisfactory answer, is how left wingers who deride a free market agenda were ok, to put it mildly, with Freedom of Movement, when they are seemingly part of the same thing.
Immigration has doubled since Freedom of Movement was ended. FoM was a red herring.
And has this increase in immigration been opposed by left wingers?
Well I oppose it! Wtf have the Tories been doing these past 5 years to allow it to get so out of hand?
From John Gray. "If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets. Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
“ – the destructive impact of free trade and mass immigration on the economic security of workers”
What I struggled with, and I still don’t really feel I’ve heard a satisfactory answer, is how left wingers who deride a free market agenda were ok, to put it mildly, with Freedom of Movement, when they are seemingly part of the same thing.
Immigration has doubled since Freedom of Movement was ended. FoM was a red herring.
That doesn’t really have anything to do with my bafflement at people being anti free market but pro FOM
I know on PB. we're used to finding meaning from a well turned phrase....
But this one rescued from the dying embers of the previous thread looks to be on another level ..........
(MOONRABBIT)
"There’s bits of this PB header sailing close to the siren voices of myopic fantasy that does not represent the full truth and history of the week".
Is this a compliment? 🤔
Yes! It was a mean spirited thread but that line was a gem. I couldn't say I understood it but it rolled around in my head which is more than I can say for anything else on there. And anyway some of the best lines don't make sense
We should really have a debate on how likely the next election is to be a once in a century political upheaval that sees the replacement of one of the two main parties. It happened once in each of the previous two centuries after all.
Whilst I think it unlikely, the chances have to be higher now than they ever have been in my lifetime. 25% chance maybe?
They will just invite Farage over to complete the Bluekip takeover. Look at the last Tory conference and he was the most popular person there. That will get them back to 30% and then they can hope Labour cock it up which will happen sooner or later and might well happen first term.
From John Gray. "If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets. Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
“ – the destructive impact of free trade and mass immigration on the economic security of workers”
What I struggled with, and I still don’t really feel I’ve heard a satisfactory answer, is how left wingers who deride a free market agenda were ok, to put it mildly, with Freedom of Movement, when they are seemingly part of the same thing.
Immigration has doubled since Freedom of Movement was ended. FoM was a red herring.
That doesn’t really have anything to do with my bafflement at people being anti free market but pro FOM
Who in particular? Personally, I am generally pro free market and anti (global free movement); with the EU though I am pro the single market including FoM.
They really don’t have very many of those left apparently, so losing another one is going to be something of a problem for the Russians. Losing it to friendly fire is just icing on that particular cake...
From John Gray. "If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets. Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
“ – the destructive impact of free trade and mass immigration on the economic security of workers”
What I struggled with, and I still don’t really feel I’ve heard a satisfactory answer, is how left wingers who deride a free market agenda were ok, to put it mildly, with Freedom of Movement, when they are seemingly part of the same thing.
Immigration has doubled since Freedom of Movement was ended. FoM was a red herring.
That doesn’t really have anything to do with my bafflement at people being anti free market but pro FOM
Who in particular? Personally, I am generally pro free market and anti (global free movement); with the EU though I am pro the single market including FoM.
There are plenty of left wingers who decry free marketeers whilst being appalled at the loss of Free Movement
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
It is hard to tell at this point. It is worth noting that, after the Labour election loss in 2019, it was hard to see a candidate who both could win with the membership and was untainted by the Corbyn regime. The eventual leadership winner called Corbyn his best buddy ever, said Corbyn was not racist but had been unfairly traduced by the evil media, and pledged to continue on his good work.
For the Conservatives it is MPs who have to choose the final two, and the MPs who are likely to be left after the election would be 'Sunakite' rather than Trumpist.
I agree that Tom Tugendhat seems a good bet. There is a reason that Liz Truss needs to cross the Atlantic to find a friendly audience, and the UK Tories should take note. As with Theresa May in 2016, Tugendhat may be the only one left standing.
There is a balance to be struck. I think the next successful Tory leader (that is, taking them back into government), will be sensible, but probably run (at least in part) against the self-proclaimed 'Sensibles'. This is still centrism, but of a specific, 'anti-Vordemanist' kind.
Whether that happens in five, ten, or fifteen years is only partly in their own party's hands. It all depends on how interested they are in victory.
It was a 100 years of Conservatism in UK because it stood beside business, sound finance and fiscally the best option on the ballot paper, whilst offering aspiration to the working classes. Its client media clearly does not believe in that anymore, wherever it gets in the way of Popular Right Wing ideology, and the Tory Party has followed the client media.
Can you not see, respect for institutions, political opponents, and the checks and balances on political power, this so called Conservative Party no longer believes in 😕
And if you are a conservative, as things stand Labour ticks those boxes and certainly has more respect for institutions than the modern Conservative Party, which is now anything but.
Wait. It had completely disappeared by Nov 22? Before starting again?
Nor can you equate the lines solely to the mini budget. Overlay other countries government bonds that went high from same period over this graph. 😈.
The claim high interest rates and high mortgage rates today come from the Truss Premiership and mini budget is an oft repeated damned lie, eating the credibility of everyone who repeats it.
From John Gray. "If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets. Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
“ – the destructive impact of free trade and mass immigration on the economic security of workers”
What I struggled with, and I still don’t really feel I’ve heard a satisfactory answer, is how left wingers who deride a free market agenda were ok, to put it mildly, with Freedom of Movement, when they are seemingly part of the same thing.
Immigration has doubled since Freedom of Movement was ended. FoM was a red herring.
And has this increase in immigration been opposed by left wingers?
Labour have said they want to cut immigration.
Sir Keir has said he wants to defend FOM, as well as associating it with low wages. As with seemingly every policy, he takes both positions as a matter of principle
From John Gray. "If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets. Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
“ – the destructive impact of free trade and mass immigration on the economic security of workers”
What I struggled with, and I still don’t really feel I’ve heard a satisfactory answer, is how left wingers who deride a free market agenda were ok, to put it mildly, with Freedom of Movement, when they are seemingly part of the same thing.
Immigration has doubled since Freedom of Movement was ended. FoM was a red herring.
That doesn’t really have anything to do with my bafflement at people being anti free market but pro FOM
Why is it baffling . FOM with the EU was for many the best thing about the EU. The economic side less of an issue .
Lib Dems continue to slip in the polls, now down to 9.2%.
My favourite graph since the Malmesbury Monoliths 🤗
And always trendsetting compared to the Wiki page, where Tories are still trending up and Labour down to meet them.
What pollsters are excluded though?
What do we make of More In Common polling, the last from 11th Feb, just 11% lead and only Labour 1% lead if you add ref to con taking Tories to 39%?
Could all the other pollsters have missed something with 15% leads, and one pollster with their own methodology recipe be proved way more accurate than the others? Survation isn’t far behind More in Common with their numbers.
And, with Ref voters rushing home just like last time, can Labours lead melt to virtually nothing during the campaign, just like happened in 2017? 20+ lead didn’t disappear in 2017 just because of some errors in the campaign, it was something in the mindset already before election was called 20+ lead pollsters didn’t pick up. For example, A vote for Labour in 2017 was a vote for Corbyn’s economics over that of the Conservative Party, if economics really is so important in General Elections?
For some real damage to be done, a diligent journalist needs to ask Donald Trump who he would advise people to vote for in the British general election. If Trump says the Conservatives, then the Conservatives will get hammered. And if he says Reform ... then the Conservatives will get hammered.
Despite whatever advice he is given, his vanity will ensure that he answers the question - but I think we can all agree that he is unlikely to recommend Labour or the Lib Dems....
This is actually Rishi Sunak's best bet because Trump only has to allude to the UK being run by an Indian for people to rally round him.
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
My prediciton is that the centre ground will be further right under Starmer than it is now under the Tories.
In 5-10 years the centre ground in UK politics will be waaaaay to the right of the sunakite Tories
We have merely delayed our Le Pen Moment with Brexit. It’s still coming
A wish is not a claim upon reality.
In fact the dunderheaded Tories have failed to put forward any programme that could be dignified with the name of "Philosophy". They spout random populist slogans, often stolen from MAGA, or unworkable drivel like "Rwanda", which have little relevance to anyone beyond CCHQ or Doughty St. The real problems of administration are way too difficult for a Truss, Johnson or Shapps to grasp, even in outline, and even the pseudo-managerialism of Sunak just underlines how utterly inept and out of touch the right wing has become.
Yet some kind of realignment may well be coming. The empty slogans of vacuous and self interested right wing think tanks have been completely discredited, which means that some serious, Keith Joseph style, intellectual energy must be deployed. Perhaps traditionalists like Tugenhat might foster such a rebirth, but it is just as likely that the Tories may face an existential crisis and a whole new entity emerges as the clowns drift off towards Reform MAGAism, British style, and the centrists either re-found or reform the Conservatives, as happened in Canada after the Kim Campbell debacle. If so, at least 10-15 years out of power awaits. So, hardly a new right force here.
But such populism in both the US and the UK is visibly wilting under its own contradictions, and sending the right down a populist rabbit hole guarantees that they never return to power. So sure, yes, maybe the Tory centre of gravity heads rightwards, but if so, they become unelectable... ever. As for the UK, the populist spell is breaking and I see no interest in the shrill garbage of Truss, Mogg, Johnson or anyone else of that ilk.
It would be a fantastic irony if it turns out that Brexit has actually killed the Tory right as political force.
I feel sorry for you. Not getting paid per word. You actually write all this shit for free
From John Gray. "If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets. Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
“ – the destructive impact of free trade and mass immigration on the economic security of workers”
What I struggled with, and I still don’t really feel I’ve heard a satisfactory answer, is how left wingers who deride a free market agenda were ok, to put it mildly, with Freedom of Movement, when they are seemingly part of the same thing.
Immigration has doubled since Freedom of Movement was ended. FoM was a red herring.
That doesn’t really have anything to do with my bafflement at people being anti free market but pro FOM
Why is it baffling . FOM with the EU was for many the best thing about the EU. The economic side less of an issue .
I suppose perhaps not linking FOM with economics is why Remain lost. That link was a huge reason why there was a referendum in the first place
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
My prediciton is that the centre ground will be further right under Starmer than it is now under the Tories.
In 5-10 years the centre ground in UK politics will be waaaaay to the right of the sunakite Tories
We have merely delayed our Le Pen Moment with Brexit. It’s still coming
A wish is not a claim upon reality.
In fact the dunderheaded Tories have failed to put forward any programme that could be dignified with the name of "Philosophy". They spout random populist slogans, often stolen from MAGA, or unworkable drivel like "Rwanda", which have little relevance to anyone beyond CCHQ or Doughty St. The real problems of administration are way too difficult for a Truss, Johnson or Shapps to grasp, even in outline, and even the pseudo-managerialism of Sunak just underlines how utterly inept and out of touch the right wing has become.
Yet some kind of realignment may well be coming. The empty slogans of vacuous and self interested right wing think tanks have been completely discredited, which means that some serious, Keith Joseph style, intellectual energy must be deployed. Perhaps traditionalists like Tugenhat might foster such a rebirth, but it is just as likely that the Tories may face an existential crisis and a whole new entity emerges as the clowns drift off towards Reform MAGAism, British style, and the centrists either re-found or reform the Conservatives, as happened in Canada after the Kim Campbell debacle. If so, at least 10-15 years out of power awaits. So, hardly a new right force here.
But such populism in both the US and the UK is visibly wilting under its own contradictions, and sending the right down a populist rabbit hole guarantees that they never return to power. So sure, yes, maybe the Tory centre of gravity heads rightwards, but if so, they become unelectable... ever. As for the UK, the populist spell is breaking and I see no interest in the shrill garbage of Truss, Mogg, Johnson or anyone else of that ilk.
It would be a fantastic irony if it turns out that Brexit has actually killed the Tory right as political force.
I feel sorry for you. Not getting paid per word. You actually write all this shit for free
You get paid for what you do on PB? Or is it that we are your guinea-pigs?
It seems in yesterday's locals, whilst losing 1 to labour and 1 to lib dems, the conservstives retained the rest and actuslly took one off from SNP in Jedburgh.
I think it may be @stodge who is well versed in locals and it would be interesting to have his take on it
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
My prediciton is that the centre ground will be further right under Starmer than it is now under the Tories.
In 5-10 years the centre ground in UK politics will be waaaaay to the right of the sunakite Tories
We have merely delayed our Le Pen Moment with Brexit. It’s still coming
A wish is not a claim upon reality.
In fact the dunderheaded Tories have failed to put forward any programme that could be dignified with the name of "Philosophy". They spout random populist slogans, often stolen from MAGA, or unworkable drivel like "Rwanda", which have little relevance to anyone beyond CCHQ or Doughty St. The real problems of administration are way too difficult for a Truss, Johnson or Shapps to grasp, even in outline, and even the pseudo-managerialism of Sunak just underlines how utterly inept and out of touch the right wing has become.
Yet some kind of realignment may well be coming. The empty slogans of vacuous and self interested right wing think tanks have been completely discredited, which means that some serious, Keith Joseph style, intellectual energy must be deployed. Perhaps traditionalists like Tugenhat might foster such a rebirth, but it is just as likely that the Tories may face an existential crisis and a whole new entity emerges as the clowns drift off towards Reform MAGAism, British style, and the centrists either re-found or reform the Conservatives, as happened in Canada after the Kim Campbell debacle. If so, at least 10-15 years out of power awaits. So, hardly a new right force here.
But such populism in both the US and the UK is visibly wilting under its own contradictions, and sending the right down a populist rabbit hole guarantees that they never return to power. So sure, yes, maybe the Tory centre of gravity heads rightwards, but if so, they become unelectable... ever. As for the UK, the populist spell is breaking and I see no interest in the shrill garbage of Truss, Mogg, Johnson or anyone else of that ilk.
It would be a fantastic irony if it turns out that Brexit has actually killed the Tory right as political force.
I feel sorry for you. Not getting paid per word. You actually write all this shit for free
Bad response 😠
I love reading Cicero’s thoughts. And there was a fantastic challenge to you in Cicero’s last paragraph Leon you should have taken up. That is, how many elections do you see Right Wing Populism actually winning in US and UK?
My call is, perhaps no more after that one Trump surprise win.
My reasoning is voters on the whole prefer quiet politics to the noisy chaotic disrupter politics of populism, and they will find that quiet politics in those politicians and parties promising stable economics, stable government, support for business, respect for institutions and the checks and balances of power. This used to be the Conservatives in UK. The Trump takeover of the Republicans, and right wing populism take over of the UK Conservatives, will prove electorally ruinous for those grand old political parties.
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
My prediciton is that the centre ground will be further right under Starmer than it is now under the Tories.
In 5-10 years the centre ground in UK politics will be waaaaay to the right of the sunakite Tories
We have merely delayed our Le Pen Moment with Brexit. It’s still coming
A wish is not a claim upon reality.
In fact the dunderheaded Tories have failed to put forward any programme that could be dignified with the name of "Philosophy". They spout random populist slogans, often stolen from MAGA, or unworkable drivel like "Rwanda", which have little relevance to anyone beyond CCHQ or Doughty St. The real problems of administration are way too difficult for a Truss, Johnson or Shapps to grasp, even in outline, and even the pseudo-managerialism of Sunak just underlines how utterly inept and out of touch the right wing has become.
Yet some kind of realignment may well be coming. The empty slogans of vacuous and self interested right wing think tanks have been completely discredited, which means that some serious, Keith Joseph style, intellectual energy must be deployed. Perhaps traditionalists like Tugenhat might foster such a rebirth, but it is just as likely that the Tories may face an existential crisis and a whole new entity emerges as the clowns drift off towards Reform MAGAism, British style, and the centrists either re-found or reform the Conservatives, as happened in Canada after the Kim Campbell debacle. If so, at least 10-15 years out of power awaits. So, hardly a new right force here.
But such populism in both the US and the UK is visibly wilting under its own contradictions, and sending the right down a populist rabbit hole guarantees that they never return to power. So sure, yes, maybe the Tory centre of gravity heads rightwards, but if so, they become unelectable... ever. As for the UK, the populist spell is breaking and I see no interest in the shrill garbage of Truss, Mogg, Johnson or anyone else of that ilk.
It would be a fantastic irony if it turns out that Brexit has actually killed the Tory right as political force.
If a party emerged with the goal of making Britain more like Estonia, you would denounce it as being from the extreme far right.
Lib Dems continue to slip in the polls, now down to 9.2%.
My favourite graph since the Malmesbury Monoliths 🤗
And always trendsetting compared to the Wiki page, where Tories are still trending up and Labour down to meet them.
What pollsters are excluded though?
What do we make of More In Common polling, the last from 11th Feb, just 11% lead and only Labour 1% lead if you add ref to con taking Tories to 39%?
Could all the other pollsters have missed something with 15% leads, and one pollster with their own methodology recipe be proved way more accurate than the others? Survation isn’t far behind More in Common with their numbers.
And, with Ref voters rushing home just like last time, can Labours lead melt to virtually nothing during the campaign, just like happened in 2017? 20+ lead didn’t disappear in 2017 just because of some errors in the campaign, it was something in the mindset already before election was called 20+ lead pollsters didn’t pick up. For example, A vote for Labour in 2017 was a vote for Corbyn’s economics over that of the Conservative Party, if economics really is so important in General Elections?
the More in Common Methodology is to force people saying Don't Know to make a choice (Don't know is still an option but most people when asked again make a decision) - at which point those voters go Tory / Labour in a 2:1 ratio which is why the Tory vote is so high.
Personally I suspect the Tory can't be arsed vote will sit out this election especially if it's a wet Thursday in November...
Edit to add - I suspect this means that More in Common is giving you the absolutely maximum Tory vote which still isn't enough to stop a Labour majority...
It seems in yesterday's locals, whilst losing 1 to labour and 1 to lib dems, the conservstives retained the rest and actuslly took one off from SNP in Jedburgh.
I think it may be @stodge who is well versed in locals and it would be interesting to have his take on it
Although one was held with 24% of the vote against a ludicrously splintered opposition. That said it wasn't a terrible night for the Tories.
For some real damage to be done, a diligent journalist needs to ask Donald Trump who he would advise people to vote for in the British general election. If Trump says the Conservatives, then the Conservatives will get hammered. And if he says Reform ... then the Conservatives will get hammered.
Despite whatever advice he is given, his vanity will ensure that he answers the question - but I think we can all agree that he is unlikely to recommend Labour or the Lib Dems....
I bet Trump has never even heard of Reform. I think he would be hard pushed to say what party runs the UK government at the moment.
It seems in yesterday's locals, whilst losing 1 to labour and 1 to lib dems, the conservstives retained the rest and actuslly took one off from SNP in Jedburgh.
I think it may be @stodge who is well versed in locals and it would be interesting to have his take on it
Although one was held with 24% of the vote against a ludicrously splintered opposition.
See the tory party plan for many of the regional mayors.
Lib Dems continue to slip in the polls, now down to 9.2%.
My favourite graph since the Malmesbury Monoliths 🤗
And always trendsetting compared to the Wiki page, where Tories are still trending up and Labour down to meet them.
What pollsters are excluded though?
What do we make of More In Common polling, the last from 11th Feb, just 11% lead and only Labour 1% lead if you add ref to con taking Tories to 39%?
Could all the other pollsters have missed something with 15% leads, and one pollster with their own methodology recipe be proved way more accurate than the others? Survation isn’t far behind More in Common with their numbers.
And, with Ref voters rushing home just like last time, can Labours lead melt to virtually nothing during the campaign, just like happened in 2017? 20+ lead didn’t disappear in 2017 just because of some errors in the campaign, it was something in the mindset already before election was called 20+ lead pollsters didn’t pick up. For example, A vote for Labour in 2017 was a vote for Corbyn’s economics over that of the Conservative Party, if economics really is so important in General Elections?
the More in Common Methodology is to force people saying Don't Know to make a choice (Don't know is still an option but most people when asked again make a decision) - at which point those voters go Tory / Labour in a 2:1 ratio which is why the Tory vote is so high.
Personally I suspect the Tory can't be arsed vote will sit out this election especially if it's a wet Thursday in November...
Edit to add - I suspect this means that More in Common is giving you the absolutely maximum Tory vote which still isn't enough to stop a Labour majority...
Stick the bulk of that reform vote on top of it though, and the General Election result is a different picture…
The prospect of senior Tories popping up in America shilling for Trump during a UK election campaign can't be discounted as a factor in our election timing.
Oh no, I didn't mean to get you started! I was really asking you if you had any evidence for your view that Lammy wasn't any good. I don't think you have.
It’s not terrible. Its just obviously a lot poorer than, say, BAND OF BROTHERS
I agree with you on this. Masters of the Air very disappointing.
It looks okay. It’s soulless. 😕
It’s bizarrely banal
A complete absence of character story arc. You don’t root for anyone, because you don’t know who they are - so why should you care about them??! This is scriptwriting gcse - make us care - save the cat - yet it hasn’t happened. Why??
Everything else is fine. High quality cinematography etc
I have a theory as to why this is. And why it infests a lot of recent tv/movies
The prospect of senior Tories popping up in America shilling for Trump during a UK election campaign can't be discounted as a factor in our election timing.
In what way do you mean? Given the unpopularity of Trump in the UK to expect Sunak and co might be willing to go earlier to avoid the site of Liz and others stumping obviously for the orange one?
Lib Dems continue to slip in the polls, now down to 9.2%.
My favourite graph since the Malmesbury Monoliths 🤗
And always trendsetting compared to the Wiki page, where Tories are still trending up and Labour down to meet them.
What pollsters are excluded though?
What do we make of More In Common polling, the last from 11th Feb, just 11% lead and only Labour 1% lead if you add ref to con taking Tories to 39%?
Could all the other pollsters have missed something with 15% leads, and one pollster with their own methodology recipe be proved way more accurate than the others? Survation isn’t far behind More in Common with their numbers.
And, with Ref voters rushing home just like last time, can Labours lead melt to virtually nothing during the campaign, just like happened in 2017? 20+ lead didn’t disappear in 2017 just because of some errors in the campaign, it was something in the mindset already before election was called 20+ lead pollsters didn’t pick up. For example, A vote for Labour in 2017 was a vote for Corbyn’s economics over that of the Conservative Party, if economics really is so important in General Elections?
the More in Common Methodology is to force people saying Don't Know to make a choice (Don't know is still an option but most people when asked again make a decision) - at which point those voters go Tory / Labour in a 2:1 ratio which is why the Tory vote is so high.
Personally I suspect the Tory can't be arsed vote will sit out this election especially if it's a wet Thursday in November...
Edit to add - I suspect this means that More in Common is giving you the absolutely maximum Tory vote which still isn't enough to stop a Labour majority...
Stick the bulk of that reform vote on top of it though, and the General Election result is a different picture…
I don't know where you get the idea that the Reform vote will swing Tory. If it does I suspect it would be because the tory party actively seek Reform voters and doing so will push some Tory party voters to Labour...
And it actually doesn't help looking at electoral calculus. If 8% of that reform vote goes Tory but 4% of the tory vote goes Labour , Labour end up with the same numbers...
And I simply don't think the Tory party can grab 66% of voters claiming they are going to vote reform.
It seems in yesterday's locals, whilst losing 1 to labour and 1 to lib dems, the conservstives retained the rest and actuslly took one off from SNP in Jedburgh.
I think it may be @stodge who is well versed in locals and it would be interesting to have his take on it
Quirk of main elections being single transferable vote and by elections being first past the post, I think.
There were enough SNP votes to win one seat out of three (and the Conservatives already had the other two), but not one out of one.
Oh no, I didn't mean to get you started! I was really asking you if you had any evidence for your view that Lammy wasn't any good. I don't think you have.
We will see soon enough if he is any good but to be fair you raising the 20mph controversy was well timed with the report today, which should be read by all those on PB who are interested or expressed a view as it is very much spot on how most of us see it
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
It is hard to tell at this point. It is worth noting that, after the Labour election loss in 2019, it was hard to see a candidate who both could win with the membership and was untainted by the Corbyn regime. The eventual leadership winner called Corbyn his best buddy ever, said Corbyn was not racist but had been unfairly traduced by the evil media, and pledged to continue on his good work.
For the Conservatives it is MPs who have to choose the final two, and the MPs who are likely to be left after the election would be 'Sunakite' rather than Trumpist.
I agree that Tom Tugendhat seems a good bet. There is a reason that Liz Truss needs to cross the Atlantic to find a friendly audience, and the UK Tories should take note. As with Theresa May in 2016, Tugendhat may be the only one left standing.
There is a balance to be struck. I think the next successful Tory leader (that is, taking them back into government), will be sensible, but probably run (at least in part) against the self-proclaimed 'Sensibles'. This is still centrism, but of a specific, 'anti-Vordemanist' kind.
Whether that happens in five, ten, or fifteen years is only partly in their own party's hands. It all depends on how interested they are in victory.
It was a 100 years of Conservatism in UK because it stood beside business, sound finance and fiscally the best option on the ballot paper, whilst offering aspiration to the working classes. Its client media clearly does not believe in that anymore, wherever it gets in the way of Popular Right Wing ideology, and the Tory Party has followed the client media.
Can you not see, respect for institutions, political opponents, and the checks and balances on political power, this so called Conservative Party no longer believes in 😕
You are plotting the existing points on the graph and assuming the resulting line will continue on the same trajectory for ever more. I don't think that is the case. Politicians are human and react to failure.
The right-wing entertainment complex will be a force pulling the Conservatives away from electability, just as the social media bubble did for a long time with Labour. But eventually the graph changes; politicians learn and adapt.
As for going to war with the institutions: I broadly agree with you that blaming the 'Deep State' for your own failures or babbling on about the 'Tofu-Eating Wokerati' just makes the speaker look like a mad ranting idiot, and those who call on these tropes will keep the party out of government. On the other hand, disagreeing with the notion that the countryside is racist, or that gardening today is an act of unrepentant colonialism, may be met with some approval from the public. It is a matter of picking out individual points of disagreement and not damning entire institutions as 'woke'.
As the frilly fascists on the Tory right come out for Donald Trump, I can not help wondering what happened to the actual Conservatives in the Tory Party. The overwhelming majority of people in the UK would not vote for Trump if he was the last man on earth. So, when faced with late converts to the orange traitor, even the tiny minority that think that DJT isn´t fascist dog dirt are not going to vote Tory, though maybe some will vote for Farage, who has at least been a consistent backer of the fake tan swine.
For Truss, Johnson et al, It is not just the crawling to a total bastard that makes these cretins unelectable, it is the utterly pathetic way they make themselves look.
The only good thing about these craven assholes is the way they are driving Conservative voters away from the Tory brand at a fair rate of knots. Last night´s local by elections showing the Lib Dems winning in places like Wilts that used to be Tory heartlands shows that more clearly than ever.
UK Conservatism is dying in front of us. Sad days.
And I don’t mean in terms of polling slump, that goes in cycles anyway, I mean in a distinct philosophy, how they see the world and decisions they make.
Yes, I think what we are witnessing is the full transformation of the Tory party into a party of the populist right. From a party of the old, broad-based establishment and its prosperous hinterland to a party of a new and much more aggressive elite allied to the angry, a new coalition tied together by conspiracy theories and misinformation. Any One Nation conservatives really have to be aware, this is not the Tory party of old. The end game is Farage as party leader, backed by money from people like Paul Marshall and various US and other foreign sources. Truss is positioning herself for the new dispensation.
The regeneration started playing out a while back, but it's getting inescapable now. See the way that Sunak is regarded as a hopeless wet by many of the new Conservatives.
Thought experiment. Suppose the Conservatives lose this year and (this is the hard bit) get overtaken by an urge to move towards the centre. Who do they have who could lead the party in that direction? The best I can come up with is Tom Tugendhat, which kind of highlights the problem.
It is hard to tell at this point. It is worth noting that, after the Labour election loss in 2019, it was hard to see a candidate who both could win with the membership and was untainted by the Corbyn regime. The eventual leadership winner called Corbyn his best buddy ever, said Corbyn was not racist but had been unfairly traduced by the evil media, and pledged to continue on his good work.
For the Conservatives it is MPs who have to choose the final two, and the MPs who are likely to be left after the election would be 'Sunakite' rather than Trumpist.
I agree that Tom Tugendhat seems a good bet. There is a reason that Liz Truss needs to cross the Atlantic to find a friendly audience, and the UK Tories should take note. As with Theresa May in 2016, Tugendhat may be the only one left standing.
There is a balance to be struck. I think the next successful Tory leader (that is, taking them back into government), will be sensible, but probably run (at least in part) against the self-proclaimed 'Sensibles'. This is still centrism, but of a specific, 'anti-Vordemanist' kind.
Whether that happens in five, ten, or fifteen years is only partly in their own party's hands. It all depends on how interested they are in victory.
Ultimately, nobody knows what's going to happen in the 2024 to 2029 Parliament. My guess is that it'll play out much more like 74-79 than 97-01 but that's only a guess.
The Tories might go spinning off into the extremes and make Farage leader or they might choose a more moderate candidate - It will very much depend how big the defeat is and who is left in the Parliamentary Party.
Also, nobody knows how bad Labour will be (they're going to be bad, but how bad?)
What's going to happen in the US? What's going to happen with Russia? In 2029 we might be starting WWIII or the Russian dictator might be history and we're having a quieter period without continuous global calamities taking place.
As you point out, in December 2019 everyone's expectations was that it would take a decade for Labour to recover from their defeat and from Corbyn's toxicity yet within a couple of years they were back in the game.
We live in volatile times. Expect the unexpected.
This week's events suggest that both Sunak and Starmer seem to view foreign policy largely as a bit of a nuisance, destined to be refracted through internal party politics. If defence and foreign policy suddenly become the most important issues then it could potentially be Tugendhat's hour - his apparent flaw is that he seems largely uninterested in domestic matters.
Are you listening Truss and others, that is the one nation conservatives I can vote for
Is the 'neo' even necessary? Such as 'neo' is generally used I would take it to assume an old thing in a new form, whereas Putin is quite direct in his classicical imperalist ambitions rooted in phoney history, revanchism, and irredentism.
Comments
Our fire drills are in case of accidental fires. The Russians are firestarting in our back yard!
Anyway it's soon teatime, so dosvedanya comrade.
However hard Starmer tries the Party still has a long way to go.
https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1761040505234698279?s=61p
Down on 2019, even 1 poll saying down on 2017 - what does that mean, when those years were so fantastic for SNP seat return?
And you say “only one poll has Labour ahead of SNP”? It’s not a poll or seat collapse is it, despite everything thrown at them and portents of doom, it’s very sticky in fact.
And why? Malc suggests it’s despite some good reason not to vote SNP at this time, nothing else truly appeals or inspires in order to seal the vote switch.
Getting this deep into General Election year, political betting wise it looks like another large bloc of SNP in the next parliament isn’t it? Not much helping hand for Starmer coming over Hadrians Wall.
https://www.politico.eu/article/mark-rutte-nato-donald-trump-vladimir-putin/
Bonus silly picture with Rishi near the bottom, for thorough readers.
If you can’t put up a convincing explanation, Rule 34 is waiting for you. No pressure.
That would be a 13.3% swing since GE19 and, given that Scotland looks like SNP vs the rest, that suggests a bigger swing where Labour is the competitor (e.g. Labour wouldn't be likely to achieve a 13% swing on the SNP in Fife NE).
The Tories might go spinning off into the extremes and make Farage leader or they might choose a more moderate candidate - It will very much depend how big the defeat is and who is left in the Parliamentary Party.
Also, nobody knows how bad Labour will be (they're going to be bad, but how bad?)
What's going to happen in the US? What's going to happen with Russia? In 2029 we might be starting WWIII or the Russian dictator might be history and we're having a quieter period without continuous global calamities taking place.
As you point out, in December 2019 everyone's expectations was that it would take a decade for Labour to recover from their defeat and from Corbyn's toxicity yet within a couple of years they were back in the game.
We live in volatile times. Expect the unexpected.
From John Gray.
"If he returns to front-line British politics, Farage will focus on challenging policies that cannot be democratically legitimated. Uncontrolled immigration and environmentalist nostrums that accelerate the decline in living standards by raising the cost of energy will be his principal targets.
Populism at present is the return to politics of questions a progressive consensus has proscribed as irrational or immoral. Voters who pose these questions are dismissed as simpletons blindly obeying demagogic “dog-whistles”. As in Europe, the effect of treating one’s fellow citizens with patronising contempt is to secure the political space in which populists operate"
I don't think there is any real 'centrist consensus', you just have governments who cannot really govern and a lot of volatility.
Lib Dems continue to slip in the polls, now down to 9.2%.
As you say: expect the unexpected.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68378807
Can you not see, respect for institutions, political opponents, and the checks and balances on political power, this so called Conservative Party no longer believes in 😕
In fact, the necklace etc… it’s all starting to add up.
Where we go after that remains to be seen. My expectations are low (not helped by the shenanigans this week) but perhaps I'll be pleasantly surprised.
And always trendsetting compared to the Wiki page, where Tories are still trending up and Labour down to meet them.
What I struggled with, and I still don’t really feel I’ve heard a satisfactory answer, is how left wingers who deride a free market agenda were ok, to put it mildly, with Freedom of Movement, when they are seemingly part of the same thing.
By 2030 running EVs - certainly from China - will be far more economic than continuing with ICE vehicles.
Trade barriers may well come into play, but aren't likely to be popular.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IP3XaAqDwZ0
Footage reportedly showing a SAM slamming into a Russian A-50 AEW&C aircraft over the Sea of Azov this evening.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1761084157004784000
Whilst I think it unlikely, the chances have to be higher now than they ever have been in my lifetime. 25% chance maybe?
Despite whatever advice he is given, his vanity will ensure that he answers the question - but I think we can all agree that he is unlikely to recommend Labour or the Lib Dems....
In fact the dunderheaded Tories have failed to put forward any programme that could be dignified with the name of "Philosophy". They spout random populist slogans, often stolen from MAGA, or unworkable drivel like "Rwanda", which have little relevance to anyone beyond CCHQ or Doughty St. The real problems of administration are way too difficult for a Truss, Johnson or Shapps to grasp, even in outline, and even the pseudo-managerialism of Sunak just underlines how utterly inept and out of touch the right wing has become.
Yet some kind of realignment may well be coming. The empty slogans of vacuous and self interested right wing think tanks have been completely discredited, which means that some serious, Keith Joseph style, intellectual energy must be deployed. Perhaps traditionalists like Tugenhat might foster such a rebirth, but it is just as likely that the Tories may face an existential crisis and a whole new entity emerges as the clowns drift off towards Reform MAGAism, British style, and the centrists either re-found or reform the Conservatives, as happened in Canada after the Kim Campbell debacle. If so, at least 10-15 years out of power awaits. So, hardly a new right force here.
But such populism in both the US and the UK is visibly wilting under its own contradictions, and sending the right down a populist rabbit hole guarantees that they never return to power. So sure, yes, maybe the Tory centre of gravity heads rightwards, but if so, they become unelectable... ever. As for the UK, the populist spell is breaking and I see no interest in the shrill garbage of Truss, Mogg, Johnson or anyone else of that ilk.
It would be a fantastic irony if it turns out that Brexit has actually killed the Tory right as political force.
Nor can you equate the lines solely to the mini budget. Overlay other countries government bonds that went high from same period over this graph. 😈.
The claim high interest rates and high mortgage rates today come from the Truss Premiership and mini budget is an oft repeated damned lie, eating the credibility of everyone who repeats it.
What do we make of More In Common polling, the last from 11th Feb, just 11% lead and only Labour 1% lead if you add ref to con taking Tories to 39%?
Could all the other pollsters have missed something with 15% leads, and one pollster with their own methodology recipe be proved way more accurate than the others? Survation isn’t far behind More in Common with their numbers.
And, with Ref voters rushing home just like last time, can Labours lead melt to virtually nothing during the campaign, just like happened in 2017? 20+ lead didn’t disappear in 2017 just because of some errors in the campaign, it was something in the mindset already before election was called 20+ lead pollsters didn’t pick up. For example, A vote for Labour in 2017 was a vote for Corbyn’s economics over that of the Conservative Party, if economics really is so important in General Elections?
Gabriel Attal (current PM) - 49%
Marine Le Pen - 51%
Édouard Philippe (former PM) - 50%
Marine Le Pen - 50%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon - 36%
Marine Le Pen - 64%
https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/120604-Resultats.pdf
I think it may be @stodge who is well versed in locals and it would be interesting to have his take on it
'Putin is a neo - imperialist bully'
Are you listening Truss and others, that is the one nation conservatives I can vote for
Interesting idea.
Not sure what Internet rule 34 is ?
Let me guess....
I love reading Cicero’s thoughts. And there was a fantastic challenge to you in Cicero’s last paragraph Leon you should have taken up. That is, how many elections do you see Right Wing Populism actually winning in US and UK?
My call is, perhaps no more after that one Trump surprise win.
My reasoning is voters on the whole prefer quiet politics to the noisy chaotic disrupter politics of populism, and they will find that quiet politics in those politicians and parties promising stable economics, stable government, support for business, respect for institutions and the checks and balances of power. This used to be the Conservatives in UK. The Trump takeover of the Republicans, and right wing populism take over of the UK Conservatives, will prove electorally ruinous for those grand old political parties.
It’s not terrible. Its just obviously a lot poorer than, say, BAND OF BROTHERS
Personally I suspect the Tory can't be arsed vote will sit out this election especially if it's a wet Thursday in November...
Edit to add - I suspect this means that More in Common is giving you the absolutely maximum Tory vote which still isn't enough to stop a Labour majority...
He isn't responsible for the Welsh 20mph policy, is he?
It looks okay. It’s soulless. 😕
That said it wasn't a terrible night for the Tories.
This is the latest report on Wales 20mph policy
'Lack of consistency and public engagement' says review into 20mph exceptions
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/lack-consistency-public-engagement-says-28687008#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
I was really asking you if you had any evidence for your view that Lammy wasn't any good. I don't think you have.
A complete absence of character story arc. You don’t root for anyone, because you don’t know who they are - so why should you care about them??! This is scriptwriting gcse - make us care - save the cat - yet it hasn’t happened. Why??
Everything else is fine. High quality cinematography etc
I have a theory as to why this is. And why it infests a lot of recent tv/movies
Might make a good Gazette article
And it actually doesn't help looking at electoral calculus. If 8% of that reform vote goes Tory but 4% of the tory vote goes Labour , Labour end up with the same numbers...
And I simply don't think the Tory party can grab 66% of voters claiming they are going to vote reform.
There were enough SNP votes to win one seat out of three (and the Conservatives already had the other two), but not one out of one.
I can't see that, but I have been wondering if there might be a Blair or El Gord comeback on the way...
The right-wing entertainment complex will be a force pulling the Conservatives away from electability, just as the social media bubble did for a long time with Labour. But eventually the graph changes; politicians learn and adapt.
As for going to war with the institutions: I broadly agree with you that blaming the 'Deep State' for your own failures or babbling on about the 'Tofu-Eating Wokerati' just makes the speaker look like a mad ranting idiot, and those who call on these tropes will keep the party out of government. On the other hand, disagreeing with the notion that the countryside is racist, or that gardening today is an act of unrepentant colonialism, may be met with some approval from the public. It is a matter of picking out individual points of disagreement and not damning entire institutions as 'woke'. This week's events suggest that both Sunak and Starmer seem to view foreign policy largely as a bit of a nuisance, destined to be refracted through internal party politics. If defence and foreign policy suddenly become the most important issues then it could potentially be Tugendhat's hour - his apparent flaw is that he seems largely uninterested in domestic matters.