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Sir Graham Brady’s postie may get a hernia in the next few days – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,571
    edited February 2024

    She looks OK :blush:
    Talking of looking OK, I’m on one of TFW’s new 197s.

    I like it very much. First time I’ve had adequate legroom on a train since I last travelled on Mark II stock.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    eek said:

    The 600,000 who in theory got older and are now voting Tory probably voted Tory in 2019.

    The issue is that the only age group voting Tory now are the retired - everyone else is seeing their tax rise yet services continue to deteriorate
    Looking at the latest YouGov, which has the Tories on 24%, and the weighted numbers give 153 Tory voters in the over-65s and 181 Tory voters in all other age groups. So only 46% of Tory voters are aged 65+.

    The weighted sample has 23% aged 65+ by way of comparison.
  • ydoethur said:

    Sound reasoning - apart from the minor detail of Johnson facing suspension from parliament and a by-election that, had he been the candidate, he would have lost.
    If 2019 "rougish but loveable in a certain light" Boris could be brought back, that would be one thing. But he can't be.

    2024 Boris is older and balder. (I've been saying for years- the hair is the superpower.) More importantly, it's hard to unsee the bastardry once you have seen it, and there a few things creepier than a unloved rouge trying the old moves with ever decreasing success.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    That’s rather uncharitable, unrealistic - and curmudgeonly. She was called directly by the leader and asked to stand. She had to grasp the opportunity. If she hadn’t, someone else might have won the seat and compromised Miss Kitchen’s chances at the GE.
    Yeah exactly - you get one shot at something like this. A once in a lifetime thing.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    Here they come...


    @JackElsom
    New Conservatives say Sunak "must change course" after by-election defeats.

    "We are calling on the Government to adapt to the reality that the by-elections reveal."

    They call on him to:
    1. Leave ECHR/repeal HRA
    2. More legal migration curbs
    3. Cut taxes
    4. Welfare reform
  • isamisam Posts: 41,346

    That's because turnout was roughly half of what it was in 2019!
    That’s the point isn’t it? In the 1996 By Elections, turnout was about 60% and Labour added an extra 25% of votes to their previous tally

  • ydoethur said:

    Talking of looking OK, I’m on one of TFW’s new 197s.

    I like it very much. First time I’ve had adequate legroom on a train since I last travelled on Mark II stock.
    Never been on one! But heartening to know there's at least one new type of train with decent seating!

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,571
    Scott_xP said:

    Here they come...


    @JackElsom
    New Conservatives say Sunak "must change course" after by-election defeats.

    "We are calling on the Government to adapt to the reality that the by-elections reveal."

    They call on him to:
    1. Leave ECHR/repeal HRA
    2. More legal migration curbs
    3. Cut taxes
    4. Welfare reform

    Well, there’s no denying that would lead to a radical shift.

    As in, would see the Lib Dems come second.
  • isam said:

    That’s the point isn’t it? In the 1996 By Elections, turnout was about 60% and Labour added an extra 25% of votes to their previous tally

    How many votes did the Tory bods add to their respective 2019 totals?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,346

    If 2019 "rougish but loveable in a certain light" Boris could be brought back, that would be one thing. But he can't be.

    2024 Boris is older and balder. (I've been saying for years- the hair is the superpower.) More importantly, it's hard to unsee the bastardry once you have seen it, and there a few things creepier than a unloved rouge trying the old moves with ever decreasing success.
    Yet 2019 Tories, the only voters that matter in this context, still vastly prefer him to Sunak.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    @RedfieldWilton
    Labour is more trusted than the Conservatives on EVERY policy issue prompted.

    Which party do voters trust most on...?

    (Labour | Conservatives)

    NHS (43% | 16%)
    Poverty (42% | 15%)
    Education (39% | 18%)
    Immigration (31% | 22%)
    Economy (35% | 26%)
    Ukraine (30% | 25%)
  • ydoethur said:

    Talking of looking OK, I’m on one of TFW’s new 197s.

    I like it very much. First time I’ve had adequate legroom on a train since I last travelled on Mark II stock.
    You found a train running in Wales ????
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,571
    edited February 2024

    Never been on one! But heartening to know there's at least one new type of train with decent seating!

    They’re pretty good actually. Comfortable. Not only good legroom but wide seats with high backs. Good views out of the window (which matters in Wales). USB and three pin charger points for every seat. Not too noisy. Not lots of stupid announcements, for a start.

    Against my expectations I’m impressed. Gold star for all involved.

    Edit - and I think they’re due to be rolled out across pretty much all routes including the Central Wales.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,346

    How many votes did the Tory bods add to their respective 2019 totals?
    That’s not the point. I’m comparing Lab 96-Lab 92 to Lab 24-Lab 19. The Tories lost loads of votes both times, but they didn’t go to Labour yesterday as they did in 96
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,571

    You found a train running in Wales ????
    Well, a gentle amble :smile:

    Just going into Llandudno Junction actually. So very close to you!

    As well I didn’t leave it until tomorrow as I was thinking of doing. Engineering works at Bangor, replacement buses.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Here they come...


    @JackElsom
    New Conservatives say Sunak "must change course" after by-election defeats.

    "We are calling on the Government to adapt to the reality that the by-elections reveal."

    They call on him to:
    1. Leave ECHR/repeal HRA
    2. More legal migration curbs
    3. Cut taxes
    4. Welfare reform

    Nut. Jobs.
  • Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton
    Labour is more trusted than the Conservatives on EVERY policy issue prompted.

    Which party do voters trust most on...?

    (Labour | Conservatives)

    NHS (43% | 16%)
    Poverty (42% | 15%)
    Education (39% | 18%)
    Immigration (31% | 22%)
    Economy (35% | 26%)
    Ukraine (30% | 25%)

    ROFL it is over. That economy score.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/02/the-trumpian-end-of-the-liberal-world-order

    "The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...

    If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."


  • Everything that's wrong with the Tories in one interview:

    Richard Holden shats the bed repeatedly in defence of the abruptly edited clip they put out of Sadiq Khan. https://twitter.com/TimesRadio/status/1758408188259336227
  • Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    edited February 2024
    isam said:

    Yet 2019 Tories, the only voters that matter in this context, still vastly prefer him to Sunak.

    That’s like asking people do you prefer the unknown or the left overs from last night that gave you food poisoning

    Give people a choice of the options within the Tory party and suddenly Rishi is the preferred option
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,571
    darkage said:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/02/the-trumpian-end-of-the-liberal-world-order

    "The more pertinent irrationality is that of liberals themselves. Weaponising the legal system to destroy Trump has only made him stronger. Why persist in a strategy that is so counter-productive? The answer is that liberals suffer from a form of repetition-compulsion – the pathological urge to re-enact damaging behaviours, as identified in Freudian psychoanalysis. Fixated on reasserting what they believe to be their proper place as the moral guardians of society, and indeed the world order, they are locking themselves into a cycle of failure...

    If any single issue can ensure Trump’s re-election, it is chaos on America’s Mexican border, a source of mounting concern that extends far beyond his core supporters. Continuing inflows of illegal aliens have produced dissension and opposition in Texas, New York and “sanctuary cities” such as Chicago, where communities of various ethnicities have protested against its effects on public services. Yet for many Democrat activists, voters’ resistance to mass immigration is not much more than an expression of popular racism. American liberals are reprising the hubristic disregard for their fellow citizens that led to Trump’s victory in 2016."


    They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.

    The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,571
    Does any station have a more dramatic setting than Conwy? The river, the mountains, the castle? What a mix.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    Leon said:

    If Vlad is reading I just want to say, mr Putin, sir, I’ve always admired your work

    Really. Especially on woke. Sound as a pound

    Keep it up

    President Putin has sent his condolences to Navalny's family, he had been informed of his death before it occurred
  • Scott_xP said:

    Here they come...


    @JackElsom
    New Conservatives say Sunak "must change course" after by-election defeats.

    "We are calling on the Government to adapt to the reality that the by-elections reveal."

    They call on him to:
    1. Leave ECHR/repeal HRA
    2. More legal migration curbs
    3. Cut taxes
    4. Welfare reform

    New Conservatives being a group with 30p Lee as a prominent member.

    Translation:
    1. Tell Europe to Fuck Off
    2. Tell Foreigners to Fuck Off
    3. Tell whining voters to Fuck Off
    4. Tell scroungers to Fuck Off

    Vote Tory or Fuck Off
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    ydoethur said:

    Does any station have a more dramatic setting than Conwy? The river, the mountains, the castle? What a mix.

    Durham - although you can’t see much when sat in the station
  • Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    Because people read it and react and then share it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    ydoethur said:

    They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.

    The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
    It's a John Gray article; you wouldn't expect it to make sense.
  • New Conservatives being a group with 30p Lee as a prominent member.

    Translation:
    1. Tell Europe to Fuck Off
    2. Tell Foreigners to Fuck Off
    3. Tell whining voters to Fuck Off
    4. Tell scroungers to Fuck Off

    Vote Tory or Fuck Off
    You are WOKE left wing SCUM, ENTITLED, YOUNG, SNOWFLAKE.

    Will you pls vote for us thank you x
  • isamisam Posts: 41,346
    eek said:

    That’s like asking people do you prefer the unknown or the left overs from last night that gave you food poisoning

    Give people a choice of the options within the Tory party and suddenly Rishi is the preferred option
    The leader they all voted for at the last GE is not really ‘the unknown’
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    ydoethur said:

    Does any station have a more dramatic setting than Conwy? The river, the mountains, the castle? What a mix.

    I'm a big fan of Thanet Parkway
  • Because people read it and react and then share it.
    Correct. And I've just done the same.

    Interesting though, isn't it? If you already believe this stuff anyway then it will simply be added to your book as another evidence point even though it's almost certainly entirely false.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    DougSeal said:

    I'm a big fan of Thanet Parkway
    Is that a euphemism?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,346
    Quite a way for Labour to dampen anti semitism claims whilst showing Uber progressiveness

    Labour’s Jewish by-election candidate celebrates victory with Israeli-born husband jewishnews.co.uk/labours-jewish… via @JewishNewsUK

    https://x.com/lmharpin/status/1758445894519730267?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    ydoethur said:

    They haven’t’weaponised the legal system to destroy Trump.’ The legal system has pursued him for multiple criminal acts.

    The only side weaponising the legal system are the Republicans with their decision to ignore Supreme Court rulings, vexatiously impeach a Cabinet member and pursue fraudulent charges against Hunter Biden disrupting the actual criminal case against him.
    The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.

    A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.

  • isam said:

    Yet 2019 Tories, the only voters that matter in this context, still vastly prefer him to Sunak.

    Details of that Times poll are out;

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_AdHoc_240124_New_W.pdf

    Looking at 2019 Conservatives;
    If Boris came back,
    35% more likely
    26% less likely
    15% wouldn't vote Conservative anyway
    15% would vote Conservative anyway

    So that's 9% net of the 43%, about 4 points. In terms of YouGov, that would take them from low 20s to high 20s. Better, but not transformative.

    This is from summer 2023, so it's a bit more dated, but it teases out the Con-to-LibLab and Con-to-Ref defectors.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45926-how-do-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-and-boris-johnson-

    Those who left the Tories for a party to their political right, like Reform UK, actually have a net favourable view of Johnson (+14) and a very unfavourable view of Sunak (-60). Meanwhile, those who have left the Tories for a party to their political left, like Labour or the Lib Dems, have a less unfavourable view of Sunak (-44) than Johnson (-66). Unfortunately for Sunak, however, Keir Starmer holds a massively better score among this group (+10), which will severely limit his ability to return these voters to the Tory fold.

    Which is the Conservative problem in a nutshell. They can't move either way without losing support on the other side.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,571
    edited February 2024
    darkage said:

    The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.

    A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.

    But that’s not the point, is it? He’s not being ‘aggressively pursued.’ In fact, anyone else would have been banged up good and hard long ago.

    What the article is saying is he’s being pursued for political reasons - false - and it’s not working - irrelevant due to the false premise.

    The much bigger problem is that the prosecutions have moved so slowly. The charges he faces next month have been doing the rounds for eight years, but only now is he actually in the dock.

    Edit - I think the real thesis of the article is ‘Trump should be allowed to get away with his crimes because he’s Trump.’ That is not how the American justice system actually works. Lots of powerful criminals get let off lightly by cutting deals, including quite a lot of Trump’s associates. He’s refused to based on precisely the logic of the article because he seems to genuinely believe everything he does is automatically OK.

    Which is actually a very good reason for him to be pursued anyway…
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    darkage said:

    The thesis of the article is that the aggressive pursuit of litigation and criminal allegations makes Trump stronger by reinforcing the narrative of an elite conspiracy, yet the 'liberals' keep on pursuing them, despite being presented with evidence that they are failing, and in so doing are trapped in a cycle of self destruction.

    A lot seems to be resting on the polling that a criminal conviction is a game changer - I am not that confident.

    The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Nut. Jobs.
    Richard Tice came across as polished and persuasive in these by elections.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    edited February 2024
    Leon said:

    I actually agree on the time scale. I can be hyperbolic, I know that. I also think I can extrapolate better than 97% of PB and better than 99.99% of humanity. It’s why I saw Covid coming. On about Feb 3rd 2020 I was telling my older daughter’s mum ‘they are going to close the schools, i guarantee it, get ready’ and she laughed like I was a total lunatic then she apologised four months later. True story

    However I also have a tendency to get over-excited - I know, hard to believe - which means I OVER extrapolate. I shrink time scales. This is the case with LLMs. As soon as @FrancisUrquhart told me about gpt2 on here, and what was coming, I extrapolated to actual AGI, and I am still sure it is coming, quite soon. But actually language modeling has slowed down to an extent i hadn’t foreseen (nerfing, safety fears, data limits). So it will take longer that i anticipated

    See also: self driving cars

    If I make a big prediction my advice is, listen carefully to me, I’m probably right, but I’m also, at the same time, probably wildly wrong in the timing and far too “optimistic”. Double any timing estimates I give
    “Contagious but benign”. So close to the mark.
  • Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    My three year-old nephew is currently obsessed with Optimus Prime...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    WillG said:

    The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
    but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,571

    but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
    Well, that does seem to be Aileen Cannon’s position, certainly.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    but not elderly mentally impaired gentlemen with a garage full of confidential documents,
    I believe Trump was already included.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    WillG said:

    I believe Trump was already included.
    then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    ydoethur said:

    But that’s not the point, is it? He’s not being ‘aggressively pursued.’ In fact, anyone else would have been banged up good and hard long ago.

    What the article is saying is he’s being pursued for political reasons - false - and it’s not working - irrelevant due to the false premise.

    The much bigger problem is that the prosecutions have moved so slowly. The charges he faces next month have been doing the rounds for eight years, but only now is he actually in the dock.

    Edit - I think the real thesis of the article is ‘Trump should be allowed to get away with his crimes because he’s Trump.’ That is not how the American justice system actually works. Lots of powerful criminals get let off lightly by cutting deals, including quite a lot of Trump’s associates. He’s refused to based on precisely the logic of the article because he seems to genuinely believe everything he does is automatically OK.

    Which is actually a very good reason for him to be pursued anyway…
    Well they have also been aggressively defended, which is part of the reason it's taken so long.
    WIth sufficient resources (and Trump has spent many tens of millions), even obtaining a simple piece of evidence can become a years long battle through the courts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,571
    edited February 2024

    then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
    Ther are certain key differences.

    For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.

    For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.

    Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.

    Fourth, he appointed a known hostile to investigate himself, not a woman who was effectively a member of his campaign team. (This seems to have been an error as Hur made a number of statements in the report which may be false, but you can see why he did it.)

    My reading of the Biden report is Hur was sore he couldn’t prosecute Biden so shot his mouth off on irrelevancies instead.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,336
    Scott_xP said:

    Here they come...


    @JackElsom
    New Conservatives say Sunak "must change course" after by-election defeats.

    "We are calling on the Government to adapt to the reality that the by-elections reveal."

    They call on him to:
    1. Leave ECHR/repeal HRA
    2. More legal migration curbs
    3. Cut taxes
    4. Welfare reform

    So rather than rebuild, burn the basket case. Yeah, that works.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630

    My three year-old nephew is currently obsessed with Optimus Prime...
    My thirteen month old son is obsessed with socks
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    ydoethur said:

    Ther are certain key differences.

    For one, Biden handed over the documents when told to. He didn’t try to hold on to them.

    For another, he didn’t force his associates to lie about what was there.

    Third, he didn’t falsely claim they had all been declassified.
    You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton
    Labour is more trusted than the Conservatives on EVERY policy issue prompted.

    Which party do voters trust most on...?

    (Labour | Conservatives)

    NHS (43% | 16%)
    Poverty (42% | 15%)
    Education (39% | 18%)
    Immigration (31% | 22%)
    Economy (35% | 26%)
    Ukraine (30% | 25%)

    They obvously didn't ask which party they trusted most to screw the UK up.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    @christopherhope

    My analysis for
    @GBNEWS
    :

    Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides.
    Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches.
    Not any more.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,191

    My thirteen month old son is obsessed with socks
    My 20 year old son is obsessed with moral philosophy. There really ought to be a helpline.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    My analysis for
    @GBNEWS
    :

    Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides.
    Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches.
    Not any more.

    They can lose as a Conservative or as Reform - what would it matter?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    ydoethur said:

    But that’s not the point, is it? He’s not being ‘aggressively pursued.’ In fact, anyone else would have been banged up good and hard long ago.

    What the article is saying is he’s being pursued for political reasons - false - and it’s not working - irrelevant due to the false premise.

    The much bigger problem is that the prosecutions have moved so slowly. The charges he faces next month have been doing the rounds for eight years, but only now is he actually in the dock.

    Edit - I think the real thesis of the article is ‘Trump should be allowed to get away with his crimes because he’s Trump.’ That is not how the American justice system actually works. Lots of powerful criminals get let off lightly by cutting deals, including quite a lot of Trump’s associates. He’s refused to based on precisely the logic of the article because he seems to genuinely believe everything he does is automatically OK.

    Which is actually a very good reason for him to be pursued anyway…
    But the question to consider, and the point of the article I think, is this: is pursuing him actually doing any good?

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,922
    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    My analysis for
    @GBNEWS
    :

    Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides.
    Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches.
    Not any more.

    Tory backbenchers are probably both stupid and selfish enough.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,346
    edited February 2024

    Details of that Times poll are out;

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_AdHoc_240124_New_W.pdf

    Looking at 2019 Conservatives;
    If Boris came back,
    35% more likely
    26% less likely
    15% wouldn't vote Conservative anyway
    15% would vote Conservative anyway

    So that's 9% net of the 43%, about 4 points. In terms of YouGov, that would take them from low 20s to high 20s. Better, but not transformative.

    This is from summer 2023, so it's a bit more dated, but it teases out the Con-to-LibLab and Con-to-Ref defectors.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45926-how-do-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-and-boris-johnson-

    Those who left the Tories for a party to their political right, like Reform UK, actually have a net favourable view of Johnson (+14) and a very unfavourable view of Sunak (-60). Meanwhile, those who have left the Tories for a party to their political left, like Labour or the Lib Dems, have a less unfavourable view of Sunak (-44) than Johnson (-66). Unfortunately for Sunak, however, Keir Starmer holds a massively better score among this group (+10), which will severely limit his ability to return these voters to the Tory fold.

    Which is the Conservative problem in a nutshell. They can't move either way without losing support on the other side.
    Thanks for finding that, I was eager to see the ‘less likely’ score

    In an election campaign, I’m pretty confident Boris would win over a lot more waverers than Sunak, so it does seem the mistake I say they made replacing Johnson is confirmed by data. Being less disliked whilst having a net -44 is worthless
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    edited February 2024
    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    My analysis for
    @GBNEWS
    :

    Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides.
    Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches.
    Not any more.

    It's good for us all that Cameron's referendum neutered the right wing nutters. Imagine the chaos that would have been unleashed if Miliband had won. We'd be mired in economic stagnation by now. It's all Starmer's fault.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,571

    You have Trumpitis. An overhwelming desire to give a known narcissist all the publicity he craves when simply ignoring him would yield better and more credible results.
    It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630
    eristdoof said:

    They obvously didn't ask which party they trusted most to screw the UK up.
    Although I bet no-one would be able to tell you Labours policy on the NHS/Poverty/Education/Immigration/Economy/Ukraine.
  • Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    My analysis for
    @GBNEWS
    :

    Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides.
    Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches.
    Not any more.

    They could be "amazed" by three people as opposed to none, all of whom may be standing down at the next election anyway.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    ydoethur said:

    It’s interesting to see many on the political right are so weak on law and order that they want serial criminals to escape punishment for their crimes.
    I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,191
    isam said:

    Thanks for finding that, I was eager to see the ‘less likely’ score

    In an election campaign, I’m pretty confident Boris would win over a lot more waverers than Sunak, so it does seem the mistake I say they made replacing Johnson is confirmed by data. Being less disliked whilst having a net -44 is worthless
    Yep, Boris was a very ordinary PM but he was a superb campaigner that could use humour effectively to reach parts of the electorate that wouldn't give a Tory like Sunak the time of day.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    ydoethur said:

    Does any station have a more dramatic setting than Conwy? The river, the mountains, the castle? What a mix.

    Corrour Station in Rannochmuir. It is literally in the middle of nowhere

    https://www.corrour.co.uk/station-house/


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818
    Andy_JS said:

    Strange timing from Putin.

    My theory? He didn't want to do it before the Carlson interview because he knew brave Tucker would have relentlessly pursued him on it and nailed him to the wall.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151

    They could be "amazed" by three people as opposed to none, all of whom may be standing down at the next election anyway.
    Let's hope they do it, for the lols...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    then he shouldnt be prosecuted just like Biden
    It's extremely likely he wouldn't have been, had he handed them back rather than lying about them.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    Nigelb said:

    It's extremely likely he wouldn't have been, had he handed them back rather than lying about them.
    You think Biden doesnt lie ? Oh well.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
    For ?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522

    As I posted earlier, people are utterly sick of them. They aren't interested in Tory perspectives on Starmer so its a waste of Sunak's breath constantly trying to attack him.

    You can fight an election on fear of the other when you have delivered something, you can't when you have failed on every one of your own measures.

    What the Tories really need is to go off on a policy retreat, sit round in a circle, and come up with some new ideas which they could get started on quickly. New news, change the narrative, find something positive to run on.

    Yes and Ho!
    They tried that six months ago, though - spending the money from HS2 on 'Network North', banning smoking, repealing the meat tax, a new round of nimbyism, and a barmy dog whistle around liveable cities.

    All very Thought Camp-worthy.

    But where is any of that now? It got laughed at by the public, and - to their credit - they quickly abandoned the notion of Rishi being the change candidate.

    It was worth a shot, I suppose - but they can't go back and try it again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,571
    darkage said:

    But the question to consider, and the point of the article I think, is this: is pursuing him actually doing any good?

    It’s proving nobody is above the law. That in itself is important if you want a country where people obey laws.

    Again the article is lying. It is not the Democrats that are pursuing him. It is the courts. Although the court system in the US is overly politicised there is no evidence that that has anything to do with it.

    Stopping the courts from pursuing criminals would be interference and would definitely be a hundred times worse - it would say Trump or any violent criminal with money can get away with anything. That’s already far too much the impression in the US and urgently needs correcting.

    The real reason he and his supporters are forging a conspiracy myth is because they know he’s guilty. Like Assange’s supporters. Or O J Simpson’s. They have no other recourse because the evidence, most of it from Trump himself, is overwhelming and the excuses he offers are genuinely laughable.

    So yes, it is the right thing to do. It would be better if Trump had been safely locked up long ago so he wasn’t trying to divert attention from his crimes by running again, but that’s his fault not the prosecutors’.
  • New Conservatives being a group with 30p Lee as a prominent member.

    Translation:
    1. Tell Europe to Fuck Off
    2. Tell Foreigners to Fuck Off
    3. Tell whining voters to Fuck Off
    4. Tell scroungers to Fuck Off

    Vote Tory or Fuck Off
    Sounds like he should be joining ReFuk.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    Nigelb said:

    For ?
    Lying about his metal faculties for a start. He;s the next Diane Feinstein.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    Scott_xP said:

    @christopherhope

    My analysis for
    @GBNEWS
    :

    Reform UK sources have told me they are "amazed" by the number of Conservative MPs who are now in talks with Reform about switching sides.
    Until now I had discounted the possibility of defections to the Reform from the Tory backbenches.
    Not any more.

    Leon-level trolling, there.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,346
    DavidL said:

    Yep, Boris was a very ordinary PM but he was a superb campaigner that could use humour effectively to reach parts of the electorate that wouldn't give a Tory like Sunak the time of day.
    I addition to my post, we need to see how Tory 2019 Don’t Knows split Boris/Sunak @Stuartinromford
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,571

    I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
    Oddly, I’m actually inclined to agree with you. As I thought about Clinton.

    But the reason he hasn’t is because his subsequent actions mean no jury will convict him.

    That makes it a waste of time.

    Trump, however, keeps doubling down. Because he’s a dangerous criminal and thinks he is above the law.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,191

    I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
    The person who accused Biden of taking a bribe is now on trial for perjury. What were you planning to charge him with?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    You think Biden doesnt lie ? Oh well.
    You think he lied to an FBI investigator ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    FF43 said:

    Corrour Station in Rannochmuir. It is literally in the middle of nowhere

    https://www.corrour.co.uk/station-house/


    Something to be said for Kyle of Lochalsh.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    Lying about his metal faculties for a start. He;s the next Diane Feinstein.
    You have Bidenitis.

    You apparently want him prosecuted for being old.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,841
    Putin’s mistake was not sending navalny to Syria or Afghanistan then he could have simply droned him. Like we do in the west

    Because we are “better”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133
    Chris said:

    Tory backbenchers are probably both stupid and selfish enough.
    Farage on R4 just now was clearly keeping his options open, and I’d guess that the RefUKs may try to turbo-charge their election campaign with some announcement about Farage re-entering the fray. Reading between the lines of his replies, my guess is that Farage hopes to inflict such a defeat on the conservative establishment that he and his cronies will be able to emerge as key players in constructing a new politics of the right.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,571

    I agree Biden should be put in a court too.
    Oddly, I’m actually inclined to agree with you

    Lying about his metal faculties for a start. He;s the next Diane Feinstein.
    We don’t know he has. Hur is a notorious liar himself.

    But - he shouldn’t have had the documents. For that he does deserve a telling off by a court.

    As does Trump. Although he’s using highly dodgy methods to try and avoid it.

    Filing false reports or indulging in silly what aboutery involving Trump are not however the way to do it. It just makes the Republicans look like the certifiable lunatics with Nazi tendencies they undoubtedly are.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,336
    ...
    DavidL said:

    Yep, Boris was a very ordinary PM but he was a superb campaigner that could use humour effectively to reach parts of the electorate that wouldn't give a Tory like Sunak the time of day.
    If you like your campaigns comedically anarchic, Johnson was great.

    Johnson campaigns are also less effective when he is forced not to lie.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Nigelb said:

    You have Bidenitis.

    You apparently want him prosecuted for being old.
    It's a sign of presenile dementia? I do hope not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    edited February 2024
    Carnyx said:

    Something to be said for Kyle of Lochalsh.
    This is a pretty interesting railroad.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Zephyr#Stations

    My favourite, though, is the "Roaring Camp" railroad.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roaring_Camp_&_Big_Trees_Narrow_Gauge_Railroad
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,158

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
  • AlsoLei said:

    They tried that six months ago, though - spending the money from HS2 on 'Network North', banning smoking, repealing the meat tax, a new round of nimbyism, and a barmy dog whistle around liveable cities.

    All very Thought Camp-worthy.

    But where is any of that now? It got laughed at by the public, and - to their credit - they quickly abandoned the notion of Rishi being the change candidate.

    It was worth a shot, I suppose - but they can't go back and try it again.
    Problem is that they didn't:
    Spending the money from HS2 on NN - nope. The only shovel ready schemes have been filling potholes in London
    Banning smoking - Tory MPs won't vote for it and Rishi knows it
    Repealing the Meat Tax - didn't exist to repeal

    etc

    NIMBYism - a lot of voters don't want Tory MPs if that was your point...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    ydoethur said:

    Oddly, I’m actually inclined to agree with you. As I thought about Clinton.

    But the reason he hasn’t is because his subsequent actions mean no jury will convict him.

    That makes it a waste of time.

    Trump, however, keeps doubling down. Because he’s a dangerous criminal and thinks he is above the law.
    Im afraid youre off down the MAGA rabbit hole again chasing Trump. The more attention you give him the stronger he gets. Dems just better pray he doesnt get in since they have set up a new level of lawfare which he will use against them. The Reps did something similar attacking Bill Clinton and took the whole tone of political debate down several notched. It hasnt gone back up since.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133

    Details of that Times poll are out;

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_AdHoc_240124_New_W.pdf

    Looking at 2019 Conservatives;
    If Boris came back,
    35% more likely
    26% less likely
    15% wouldn't vote Conservative anyway
    15% would vote Conservative anyway

    So that's 9% net of the 43%, about 4 points. In terms of YouGov, that would take them from low 20s to high 20s. Better, but not transformative.

    This is from summer 2023, so it's a bit more dated, but it teases out the Con-to-LibLab and Con-to-Ref defectors.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45926-how-do-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-and-boris-johnson-

    Those who left the Tories for a party to their political right, like Reform UK, actually have a net favourable view of Johnson (+14) and a very unfavourable view of Sunak (-60). Meanwhile, those who have left the Tories for a party to their political left, like Labour or the Lib Dems, have a less unfavourable view of Sunak (-44) than Johnson (-66). Unfortunately for Sunak, however, Keir Starmer holds a massively better score among this group (+10), which will severely limit his ability to return these voters to the Tory fold.

    Which is the Conservative problem in a nutshell. They can't move either way without losing support on the other side.
    And the problem remains the geography.

    Imagine they brought Johnson back. He’d run an energetic campaign, albeit that he’d struggle with the scrutiny, both over his personal misbehaviour and because levelling up the North has achieved precisely nothing. He’d probably shore up the Tory vote in the so-called red wall seats, but most of them are surely lost already, and the margin of defeat becomes an irrelevance. Meanwhile he’d pitch Home Counties seats in Surrey and Sussex and all points west into the hands of the LibDems.

    Labour might be nervous at the possible return of the lying clown, but as a LibDem-leaning voter I’d say, bring it on…..
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,236
    WillG said:

    The rule of law depends on prosecuting people that have broken the law. Including rich, white Republicans when applicable.
    What about rich, orange Republicans?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266
    Scott_xP said:

    Here they come...


    @JackElsom
    New Conservatives say Sunak "must change course" after by-election defeats.

    "We are calling on the Government to adapt to the reality that the by-elections reveal."

    They call on him to:
    1. Leave ECHR/repeal HRA
    2. More legal migration curbs
    3. Cut taxes
    4. Welfare reform

    Refreshing to see them pushing for legal migration curbs, rather than proposed curbs on migration that have been deemed illegal, such as the Rwanda scheme :wink:
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    DavidL said:

    The person who accused Biden of taking a bribe is now on trial for perjury. What were you planning to charge him with?
    Me personally nothing. However you will have a job to convince that the US system with its many politically elected officials is an unbiased reliable one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,133

    My thirteen month old son is obsessed with socks
    Just appreciate that his world view has expanded as far as his feet. Things can only get worse.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    AlsoLei said:

    They tried that six months ago, though - spending the money from HS2 on 'Network North', banning smoking, repealing the meat tax, a new round of nimbyism, and a barmy dog whistle around liveable cities.

    All very Thought Camp-worthy.

    But where is any of that now? It got laughed at by the public, and - to their credit - they quickly abandoned the notion of Rishi being the change candidate.

    It was worth a shot, I suppose - but they can't go back and try it again.
    Network North as a campaign idea fell apart the second it was attached to the £xm for pot holes in London poster
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951
    ydoethur said:

    Oddly, I’m actually inclined to agree with you. As I thought about Clinton.

    But the reason he hasn’t is because his subsequent actions mean no jury will convict him.

    That makes it a waste of time.

    Trump, however, keeps doubling down. Because he’s a dangerous criminal and thinks he is above the law.
    The repetition compulsion too many on the liberal side of politics indulge in is the compulsion to appease the far right. It never works, it just makes them stronger. Yet here’s the New Statesman yet again falling into the same compulsion.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    Nigelb said:

    You have Bidenitis.

    You apparently want him prosecuted for being old.
    Yes, I want him stuck in an old age home in a chair beside Trump where they can be the new Statler and Waldorf. And they can take Pelosi and Mcconnell with them.

    We then might get US politicians who can do the day job and maybe make the world a better place.

This discussion has been closed.