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This looks an interesting bet – politicalbetting.com
This looks an interesting bet – politicalbetting.com
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I'm already exposed enough on a second Trump presidency, so I don't think I'll go for it. Green either way on Biden after backing ages ago and trading out (but I traded out far too early as I got cold feet on that
This one. Why is it infamous etc
The answer is far more freaky than me hiring a ladyboy. It actually made me wince when I heard it. Yes, that bad
I'm sure, being the sort of guy he is, that once he's got it he will take a modest amount for himself and use the rest to help others and his community.
He just doesn't want to be taken for a fool.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/01/ex-mp-simon-danczuk-suspended-for-sexting-to-fight-byelection-for-reform
Washed up old perv AND Gorgeous standing; what have the poor folk of Rochdale done to deserve this??
We need new management - perhaps time for domain expert management?
Happily in comes gorgeous to whip racial tensions hard for votes.
I merely observe it would be interesting to see what they've offered, and what he sees as apposite. He is claiming the sums are derisory, less than a quarter of what it should be, and I confess - after all the terrible publicity - I am surprised by this, is HMG contriving to screw it all up, all over again, by being mean and stupid?
Some constituencies (Peterborough springs to mind) really do get all the luck.
He isn't going to give in easily now.
The way that hundred of thousands are handed over for HR type disputes, in court, just adds salt to that wound.
"Newsnight asked (Labour MP) Bell Ribeiro-Addy and (Tory MP) Caroline Nokes about the fact the alkali attacker was granted asylum on his 3rd attempt after a sexual assault conviction
BRA: "His asylum status is not really the issue of concern"
CN: "I think it's wrong to comment on that""
WHY IS IT WRONG TO COMMENT ON THAT. HOW CAN HIS ASYLUM STATUS AND CRIMINAL RECORD NOT BE AN ISSUE OF CONCERN
These people make me want to puke
https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1753320770468495775?s=20
Sorry
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1753192152832614853
And would be looking at decades of court cases to reduce it, and it wouldn't get paid because {insert reasons here}
There has been a lot of analysis of how badly they - both PO and government - are behaving over this. The government thought it could get away with it because the public was not really interested and some of the details are technical. But now .....
At an absolute minimum calculation of compensation should be taken out of the hands of the Post Office and the Business Department. Neither of them can be trusted on this.
What about the rights of the woman who got her face melted? And her kids, likewise? Don't they have the right to be defended from failed asylum seeking Afghan perverts with criminal records who should have been deported???
What happened to feminism? What happened to sticking up for women?
It’s not “Starmer’s Strategy” only in lazy political discussion - there’s a whole team around him, certainly Mandleson, probably Campbell, Perhaps regular chats with Blair, and a host of modellers and wonks, speech writers, image makers, handlers.
What they are doing - and flipping getting away with - is greedy and a tad undemocratic - not just win, not just win big enough so the Corbynite awkward squad are utterly irrelevant, but win on a BLANK CHEQUE.
Anyone who assumes once winning Labour will soon be unpopular and Tories have poll leads again, are living in cloud Cuckoo land - governments are regarded differently, fresh change, more spin time on media, control all the leavers of setting the agenda (and traps for opponents) - at least two years of honeymoon before delivery on promises start being called in. And there’s the twist: there ain’t no promises, they are getting away with a BLANK CHEQUE.
The Tories could go the whole of the next Parliamentary term without a single poll lead, especially after a heavy defeat where they will come to be seen as a fringe cult group who delivered worst government ever when in power.
If it was just Starmer’s strategy alone it would be very different, probably a boat full of hostages to fortune as he clearly (from 1:1 interviews, easily his weakest facet) ain’t all that card sharp at politics.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/humphrey-burke-free-two-years-after-sentence-kick-prison-guard-to-death/
Blue Whales would be the biggest babies in water, not on earth.
Can't see how you'd get a blue whale calf along in one piece.
Its not impossible for policies to dramatically shift a huge poll lead into much more like parity. Teresa May waves from a cornfield somewhere.
Most governments do that a bit. They don't do everything in their manifesto, they do things that weren't in their manifesto. Politicians break promises all the time. Franky, they get away with it if the outcomes of breaking promises are better than not doing so. Would Maggie have done better to break her promise to introduce the Poll Tax?
Starmer only has to make one promise to win- to not be a Conservative. However, they've all trashed the Conservative party brand so much that being someone else looks like being enough to win.
And then, with a big enough majority, he can do whatever he damn well pleases. In part, because of the way that Team 2016-24 have Taken Back Control to the executive in Westminster.
Them's the breaks.
"For this market, nominees will be determined according to each party's national convention"
ie July for the GOP and August for the Dems.
So Trump getting disqualified or not should be resolved in time, but him getting jailed (in the rather optimistic event that they manage to get that done before the election) wouldn't be. And the grim reaper only has 5 or 6 months respectively to win this bet for you.
It is too appalling for sober discourse
So not hugely interesting whatever the combination.
It could be taken as:
- Planet, even lacking capitalisation. so they're wrong, it's the blue whale
- Soil, probably correct as even if there is soil at the ocean floor above the bedrock, the blue whales are probably above it, not on it
- Land - again, the writers are correct
Devilishly sloppy joke writing thoughETA: This is all your fault, kjh!
So either they're correct deliberately, or correct accidentally, but either way its accurate.
All I can say is it's lucky they didn't post a picture of a baby elephant jumping up into the air. Or Dumbo in flight
That photo shows number 7, road 310, Phnom Penh, in the city's trendy BKK district
It may now be full of pho bars and expat pubs and Ethiopian coffee roasters, but back in the day BKK was a very sleepy suburb yet with a faintly seedy reputation. At number 7 there was, in particular, a famous institution, Madam Chum's bordello and opium den
For decades until the Khmer Rouge anyone who was anyone, with low morals, came here
Along with nice pipes of opium it was notorious as the place where the French indochinese sex trick of the "Cholon Duck" was, apparently, perfected. Originating in the stews of Saigon, at Madam Chum's they took the "Cholon Duck" to a new level
First, a butt naked duck had its head stuck in a drawer, then the drawer was shut tight enough, trapping the duck with its arse sticking out. The panic meant the duck's rear orifice opened wider, allowing the drunk and opiated customer to penetrate more easily, with his virile member. This further increased the panic of the duck - being fucked, without even foreplay - so the orifice then tightened and loosened and tightened, in a cycle, causing "tremendous pleasure" for the duck-violator
Furthermore, the flapping of the duck's angry feet against the testicles led, it is said, to the most intense orgasms ever
After the client had enjoyed his wicked way with the duck, it was quickly despatched (if it hadn't died of a heart attack), it was then defeathered, cooked and served to the same customer in a light curry sauce
They need to catch this loon (the attacker, not the OP) and lock him up for a long time.
The attacker's asylum status is utterly irrelevant. Plenty of women get attacked / raped / murdered by white, British born nutters with a UK family history that goes back centuries, possibly millennia. Statistically, immigrants are not the issue simply because it is a numbers game. There are far more non-immigrants here.
But I suppose a chance to bash some bl**dy foreigner is just too triggering...
Some of us on here are just innocents you know. Innocents. We don't even understand TSE's posts, let alone yours.
Why is a question that should be asked. And answered.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trident-submarine-uk-missile-test-c285862ls
This certainly brings a whole new meaning to the word debauchery.
It sounds itself, like a fevered opium dream.
Politically, both are now bullet-proof nominations. They have either no challengers at all (Biden) or are so far ahead that they're out of sight (Trump).
So, what could bring them down and what are the chances?
Trump will absolutely not stand down voluntarily. We can rate that as zero. Biden might, unprompted, but it's a very low chance. He's given no indication he might (but then he probably wouldn't), and more importantly, to stand down between now and the convention would create a lot of mess and probably be viewed very badly by the public, who'd have been denied a say in the nomination. If one criticism of Trump is his autocratic tendency, it does the Democrats no favours for Biden to hand the nomination to his preferred candidate. Maybe 1-2%.
Health? Well, it's possible that might rule one out but time is ticking. The Republican convention is in mid-July, the Democrat one five weeks later. While both men are old, they're not at death's door. An actuary could provide the proper figures but my guess would be that the chance of either being ruled out by a serious health issue in the next 6 months or so is low- to mid-single figures.
Legal stuff. Biden here again is the zero. Trump obviously has many challenges but the Colorado-inspired one about his eligibility is the main threat. He will either brush off or appeal everything else. Hard to put a precise number on it but I don't think more than 10% myself. He deliberately kept well away from giving any direct or even indirect instructions on Jan 6 (which, ironically, is why it failed).
Add these together and, at most, you get somewhere near a 20% chance that one or other won't be on the ballot - but half of that is Trump's risk of being debarred. You may take a different view and it's the most unknowable of the risks to either.
There are extraordinary stories from the most famous of les maisons tolerees - the One Two Two, the Chabanais - of similar things involving animals. I'll spare you further deets, it is early in Blighty
And these are well attested, I don't believe they are disputed
So it is quite conceivable that tradition translated to French colonies, especially eroticised, Orientalised, hedonistic Indochina
Citation: bondegezou on PoliticalBetting 2nd Feb 2024
Here are old French imperial veterans discussing the legendary canards de Cholon in 2010; they seem to believe it might be true, one insists it is true
https://www.anciens-cols-bleus.net/t13670p875-operations-de-guerre-indochine-tome-3
https://www.survation.com/labour-maintains-a-stable-17-point-lead/
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention from Survation’s fortnightly tracker.
LAB 44 (-1)
CON 27 (-1)
LD 11 (+1)
GRN 3 (+1)
RFM 7 (-1)
SNP 4 (+2)
OTH 5 (+1)
F/w 30th - 31st January. Changes vs. 18th December 2023.
I think the value must be in laying both Trump and Biden as nominees and as next president - but, as we are often reminded, “events” tend not to happen as often as we think they do.
(But what the hell do I know, I’d have given you at least 20/1 against Lewis Hamilton signing for Ferrari).