Morning all! I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!
Right but Labour will be too dozy to get him signed up.
If anyone wants to understand how the government is helping us to become self-sufficient then it should check out the current Countryside Stewardship payment rates.
You can get £607/ha, for example (up from £577) - LH3 - for "Creation of heathland from arable or improved grassland".
The government, via its incentive schemes, does not want us to become food self-sufficient, whether that is a good or bad thing. It also, as per Rochdale's post, makes it harder and more expensive to import food.
Far from being a doom monger over Brexit I thought it was just a very stupid idea. Like electing a Labour government. I said it would not be catastrophic but more like the extra 2p on beer and fags in the budget. Most people wouldn't notice but would be poorer as a result.
And lo it seems to be doing exactly that.
Unlike voting Conservative which is a catastrophe we have noticed.
Fortunately for the Tories they have become self sufficient in harvesting enough votes imported from overseas to see them through next winter and beyond.
Yeah there's some stiff competition for who it would be stupid to vote for, right now.
It's a remarkable analysis.
I won't vote Labour because they "might" be a bit rubbish, but I will vote Tory despite a cast iron, copper bottomed guarantee that they will be very rubbish.
Looking at the furore surrounding Devi Sridhar and the Scottish govt, on Covid, I am reminded of Dr Deepti Gurdasani, and how we all used to listen to her as a sane voice on The Bug
Her mask costs $1000. As far as I can see, she still masks up much of her family most of the time
I recall someone who was so afraid of The Bug that he fled to a remote part of Wales to avoid it...
The irony of that particular "safehouse" was it wasn't to be found in " a remote part of Wales" but three miles from Cardiff City Centre.
I think that poster mistook COVID19 for a London-centric zombie apocalypse.
No, I think that poster went to an award-winning luxury Welsh flat with his then wife, a flat which was loaned to him because he'd forewarned a multi-millionaire businessman about Covid. That warning saved the biz guy tons of cash, so as a mark of gratitude he offered the flat to the poster for the duration
As the poster's choice was Stay in London with the wife in a small one bed, or go to a much bigger flat in Wales with its own in-built sauna, roof terrace, and gym, he went for the big place, for lockdown. As you would
If anyone wants to understand how the government is helping us to become self-sufficient then it should check out the current Countryside Stewardship payment rates.
You can get £607/ha, for example (up from £577) - LH3 - for "Creation of heathland from arable or improved grassland".
The government, via its incentive schemes, does not want us to become food self-sufficient, whether that is a good or bad thing. It also, as per Rochdale's post, makes it harder and more expensive to import food.
Far from being a doom monger over Brexit I thought it was just a very stupid idea. Like electing a Labour government. I said it would not be catastrophic but more like the extra 2p on beer and fags in the budget. Most people wouldn't notice but would be poorer as a result.
And lo it seems to be doing exactly that.
Unlike voting Conservative which is a catastrophe we have noticed.
Fortunately for the Tories they have become self sufficient in harvesting enough votes imported from overseas to see them through next winter and beyond.
Yeah there's some stiff competition for who it would be stupid to vote for, right now.
Yup. I am no longer voting, at all, apart from for a local independent councillor.
Absolute waste of time. You are simply buying in to and legitimising a system where politicians do as they please and take your vote as an endorsement of their actions.
Final straw for me was the new council in Durham. No different to the last one and all the promises made by coalition members prior to the vote came to nothing.
I would not blame anyone for not voting and buying into the whole farce. Participatory democracy is merely ticking a box once every few years to enable the politicians to carry on as they like.
If anyone wants to understand how the government is helping us to become self-sufficient then it should check out the current Countryside Stewardship payment rates.
You can get £607/ha, for example (up from £577) - LH3 - for "Creation of heathland from arable or improved grassland".
The government, via its incentive schemes, does not want us to become food self-sufficient, whether that is a good or bad thing. It also, as per Rochdale's post, makes it harder and more expensive to import food.
Far from being a doom monger over Brexit I thought it was just a very stupid idea. Like electing a Labour government. I said it would not be catastrophic but more like the extra 2p on beer and fags in the budget. Most people wouldn't notice but would be poorer as a result.
And lo it seems to be doing exactly that.
Unlike voting Conservative which is a catastrophe we have noticed.
Fortunately for the Tories they have become self sufficient in harvesting enough votes imported from overseas to see them through next winter and beyond.
Yeah there's some stiff competition for who it would be stupid to vote for, right now.
It's a remarkable analysis.
I won't vote Labour because they "might" be a bit rubbish, but I will vote Tory despite a cast iron, copper bottomed guarantee that they will be very rubbish.
Better the Devil you know!
Have I mentioned anywhere who I will vote for.
I'm calling it now. Any vote that keeps the pinkos out.
If anyone wants to understand how the government is helping us to become self-sufficient then it should check out the current Countryside Stewardship payment rates.
You can get £607/acre, for example (up from £577) - LH3 - for "Creation of heathland from arable or improved grassland".
The government, via its incentive schemes, does not want us to become food self-sufficient, whether that is a good or bad thing. It also, as per Rochdale's post, makes it harder and more expensive to import food.
Far from being a doom monger over Brexit I thought it was just a very stupid idea. Like electing a Labour government. I said it would not be catastrophic but more like the extra 2p on beer and fags in the budget. Most people wouldn't notice but would be poorer as a result.
And lo it seems to be doing exactly that.
Unlike voting Conservative which is a catastrophe we have noticed.
Fortunately for the Tories they have become self sufficient in harvesting enough votes imported from overseas to see them through next winter and beyond.
The other parties will be doing the same in trying to cultivate the voters of expats.
Looking at the furore surrounding Devi Sridhar and the Scottish govt, on Covid, I am reminded of Dr Deepti Gurdasani, and how we all used to listen to her as a sane voice on The Bug
If anyone wants to understand how the government is helping us to become self-sufficient then it should check out the current Countryside Stewardship payment rates.
You can get £607/ha, for example (up from £577) - LH3 - for "Creation of heathland from arable or improved grassland".
The government, via its incentive schemes, does not want us to become food self-sufficient, whether that is a good or bad thing. It also, as per Rochdale's post, makes it harder and more expensive to import food.
Far from being a doom monger over Brexit I thought it was just a very stupid idea. Like electing a Labour government. I said it would not be catastrophic but more like the extra 2p on beer and fags in the budget. Most people wouldn't notice but would be poorer as a result.
And lo it seems to be doing exactly that.
Unlike voting Conservative which is a catastrophe we have noticed.
Fortunately for the Tories they have become self sufficient in harvesting enough votes imported from overseas to see them through next winter and beyond.
Yeah there's some stiff competition for who it would be stupid to vote for, right now.
It's a remarkable analysis.
I won't vote Labour because they "might" be a bit rubbish, but I will vote Tory despite a cast iron, copper bottomed guarantee that they will be very rubbish.
Better the Devil you know!
It's common: the political equivalent of steering clear of vapes because their safety record is unproven, and sticking with good old cigarettes instead.
If anyone wants to understand how the government is helping us to become self-sufficient then it should check out the current Countryside Stewardship payment rates.
You can get £607/ha, for example (up from £577) - LH3 - for "Creation of heathland from arable or improved grassland".
The government, via its incentive schemes, does not want us to become food self-sufficient, whether that is a good or bad thing. It also, as per Rochdale's post, makes it harder and more expensive to import food.
Far from being a doom monger over Brexit I thought it was just a very stupid idea. Like electing a Labour government. I said it would not be catastrophic but more like the extra 2p on beer and fags in the budget. Most people wouldn't notice but would be poorer as a result.
And lo it seems to be doing exactly that.
Unlike voting Conservative which is a catastrophe we have noticed.
Fortunately for the Tories they have become self sufficient in harvesting enough votes imported from overseas to see them through next winter and beyond.
Yeah there's some stiff competition for who it would be stupid to vote for, right now.
Yup. I am no longer voting, at all, apart from for a local independent councillor.
Absolute waste of time. You are simply buying in to and legitimising a system where politicians do as they please and take your vote as an endorsement of their actions.
Final straw for me was the new council in Durham. No different to the last one and all the promises made by coalition members prior to the vote came to nothing.
I would not blame anyone for not voting and buying into the whole farce. Participatory democracy is merely ticking a box once every few years to enable the politicians to carry on as they like.
Got to say that Durham council has a nasty habit of the councillors outside your area making sure the items you don’t like get approved.
See for example every single “out of town” shopping scheme in Bishop Auckland
If anyone wants to understand how the government is helping us to become self-sufficient then it should check out the current Countryside Stewardship payment rates.
You can get £607/ha, for example (up from £577) - LH3 - for "Creation of heathland from arable or improved grassland".
The government, via its incentive schemes, does not want us to become food self-sufficient, whether that is a good or bad thing. It also, as per Rochdale's post, makes it harder and more expensive to import food.
Far from being a doom monger over Brexit I thought it was just a very stupid idea. Like electing a Labour government. I said it would not be catastrophic but more like the extra 2p on beer and fags in the budget. Most people wouldn't notice but would be poorer as a result.
And lo it seems to be doing exactly that.
Unlike voting Conservative which is a catastrophe we have noticed.
Fortunately for the Tories they have become self sufficient in harvesting enough votes imported from overseas to see them through next winter and beyond.
Yeah there's some stiff competition for who it would be stupid to vote for, right now.
It's a remarkable analysis.
I won't vote Labour because they "might" be a bit rubbish, but I will vote Tory despite a cast iron, copper bottomed guarantee that they will be very rubbish.
Better the Devil you know!
Have I mentioned anywhere who I will vote for.
I'm calling it now. Any vote that keeps the pinkos out.
Looking at the furore surrounding Devi Sridhar and the Scottish govt, on Covid, I am reminded of Dr Deepti Gurdasani, and how we all used to listen to her as a sane voice on The Bug
Her mask costs $1000. As far as I can see, she still masks up much of her family most of the time
I recall someone who was so afraid of The Bug that he fled to a remote part of Wales to avoid it...
The irony of that particular "safehouse" was it wasn't to be found in " a remote part of Wales" but three miles from Cardiff City Centre.
I think that poster mistook COVID19 for a London-centric zombie apocalypse.
No, I think that poster went to an award-winning luxury Welsh flat with his then wife, a flat which was loaned to him because he'd forewarned a multi-millionaire businessman about Covid. That warning saved the biz guy tons of cash, so as a mark of gratitude he offered the flat to the poster for the duration
As the poster's choice was Stay in London with the wife in a small one bed, or go to a much bigger flat in Wales with its own in-built sauna, roof terrace, and gym, he went for the big place, for lockdown. As you would
That's what I heard, anyroad
Personally I suspect the zombie apocalypse misunderstanding makes more sense. You know what he's like!
Looking at the furore surrounding Devi Sridhar and the Scottish govt, on Covid, I am reminded of Dr Deepti Gurdasani, and how we all used to listen to her as a sane voice on The Bug
Morning all! The NI fandango is nearly over and the DUP morons are going to accept they lost the election. Supposedly their big objection was the border. So lets look at the latest fun at the GB border.
On Thursday the new Target Operating Model comes into effect. Almost all meat and dairy products will have to have swathes of new paperwork including vet certificates from the exporting country. We are not ready, so customs will allow in loads without the correct paperwork for 3 months. Last week saw a DEFRA online meeting with 800 importers on it. Just 4% said they were ready.
Supposedly we're phasing the rollout of TOM. Paperwork which we won't check from 1st February. And then paperwork and physical checks from 1st May. But the countries we export from are ready. A few examples: France - export loads have to be held for 48 hours for inspection. Spain - only a small number of facilities will have a vet who can certify your meat or dairy. If your product isn't produced there, they won't let you export it. UK - 24 hours notice needed for an import load.
If your food is fresh, or if shelf life is important (as UK supermarkets require at least 75% of manufactured life), you are fucked under TOM.
The industry is warning of exciting months ahead with big price rises and product withdrawals. Big client already has a couple of key lines which they simply cannot import to the UK any more - commercially not viable on the new rules.
For those of us who believe we should be self-sufficient in food (not import free, just self-sufficient) that sounds like a healthy set of incentives, albeit a massive implementation risk that all contented should have managed better over the last eight years.
"Farm or starve" isn't a plan, it's a plot point in "Threads"
Obviously you’re one of those who thinks it’s fine to rely on imports to feed the population (not for variety but in order to have enough calories). I have never accepted that, and I think it’s idiotic. Really not hard to avoid either, with a bit of investment in domestic supply.
The key word there is "investment". This government have replaced the lots of money from CAP with little money post Brexit. So farming has less money than ever - how can we invest?
We have been reliant on a proportion of imports since forever, and have made progress making ourselves more reliant. We could choose not to import certain things. Chicken as an example. First we would need to Eat Less Chicken. Second, we need to invest heavily in chicken farms so that we can switch off Brazilian and Thai chicken imports. Third we need to accept that we will pay a lot more for the chicken we still eat. Fourth we eat a lot less eggs and things with eggs in them.
I know that some of the wilder Brexit vox poppers said they'd rather eat grass than stay in the EU, but I doubt "pay less for more" was their expected outcome.
The experience so far of Brexit related drama is various industries and politicians crying wolf, and the wolf not appearing. Maybe this time will be different but I doubt it. Probably everything will be fine. The industry bodies wouldn’t be doing their job if they didn’t squeal a bit.
If you want to suggest fixes for some of the detailed examples I'm sure people will listen. This isn't "squeal a bit". This is asking how the fuck the day job is supposed to happen on Thursday.
An example. The Netherlands cannot import meat to the UK on Thursday. We may choose to waive the rules, but the member states cannot (bound by treaty).
"So what" you say. Well there is quite a lot of dutch pork used in the UK foodchain, mostly in manufacturing. Most of the industry wasn't aware just how bad this is (just 4% of 800 firms on the DEFRA call last week) and "we can't import" is such an outlandish proposition that its only as it slams you in the face it becomes apparent.
If this doesn't get resolved then alternatives will be procured. But higher cost, so the price of the end product goes up, as everything will do to soak up the vast cost of the new border model.
I know a lot of this is detail and who cares about detail? Well those people who actually have to do the job care. And the people who expect to find cheap and plentiful food will care when stuff they used to buy disappears and what they can get costs more. We've had repeated waves of this, the new wave starts on Thursday.
So industry has been lazy and hasn’t bothered? Hopefully the 4% that did their job steal market share.
Morning all! The NI fandango is nearly over and the DUP morons are going to accept they lost the election. Supposedly their big objection was the border. So lets look at the latest fun at the GB border.
On Thursday the new Target Operating Model comes into effect. Almost all meat and dairy products will have to have swathes of new paperwork including vet certificates from the exporting country. We are not ready, so customs will allow in loads without the correct paperwork for 3 months. Last week saw a DEFRA online meeting with 800 importers on it. Just 4% said they were ready.
Supposedly we're phasing the rollout of TOM. Paperwork which we won't check from 1st February. And then paperwork and physical checks from 1st May. But the countries we export from are ready. A few examples: France - export loads have to be held for 48 hours for inspection. Spain - only a small number of facilities will have a vet who can certify your meat or dairy. If your product isn't produced there, they won't let you export it. UK - 24 hours notice needed for an import load.
If your food is fresh, or if shelf life is important (as UK supermarkets require at least 75% of manufactured life), you are fucked under TOM.
The industry is warning of exciting months ahead with big price rises and product withdrawals. Big client already has a couple of key lines which they simply cannot import to the UK any more - commercially not viable on the new rules.
For those of us who believe we should be self-sufficient in food (not import free, just self-sufficient) that sounds like a healthy set of incentives, albeit a massive implementation risk that all contented should have managed better over the last eight years.
"Farm or starve" isn't a plan, it's a plot point in "Threads"
Obviously you’re one of those who thinks it’s fine to rely on imports to feed the population (not for variety but in order to have enough calories). I have never accepted that, and I think it’s idiotic. Really not hard to avoid either, with a bit of investment in domestic supply.
The key word there is "investment". This government have replaced the lots of money from CAP with little money post Brexit. So farming has less money than ever - how can we invest?
We have been reliant on a proportion of imports since forever, and have made progress making ourselves more reliant. We could choose not to import certain things. Chicken as an example. First we would need to Eat Less Chicken. Second, we need to invest heavily in chicken farms so that we can switch off Brazilian and Thai chicken imports. Third we need to accept that we will pay a lot more for the chicken we still eat. Fourth we eat a lot less eggs and things with eggs in them.
I know that some of the wilder Brexit vox poppers said they'd rather eat grass than stay in the EU, but I doubt "pay less for more" was their expected outcome.
The experience so far of Brexit related drama is various industries and politicians crying wolf, and the wolf not appearing. Maybe this time will be different but I doubt it. Probably everything will be fine. The industry bodies wouldn’t be doing their job if they didn’t squeal a bit.
If you want to suggest fixes for some of the detailed examples I'm sure people will listen. This isn't "squeal a bit". This is asking how the fuck the day job is supposed to happen on Thursday.
An example. The Netherlands cannot import meat to the UK on Thursday. We may choose to waive the rules, but the member states cannot (bound by treaty).
"So what" you say. Well there is quite a lot of dutch pork used in the UK foodchain, mostly in manufacturing. Most of the industry wasn't aware just how bad this is (just 4% of 800 firms on the DEFRA call last week) and "we can't import" is such an outlandish proposition that its only as it slams you in the face it becomes apparent.
If this doesn't get resolved then alternatives will be procured. But higher cost, so the price of the end product goes up, as everything will do to soak up the vast cost of the new border model.
I know a lot of this is detail and who cares about detail? Well those people who actually have to do the job care. And the people who expect to find cheap and plentiful food will care when stuff they used to buy disappears and what they can get costs more. We've had repeated waves of this, the new wave starts on Thursday.
A recent 'Cost of brexit' in case there aren't enough reasons to get rid of this Tory/UKIP government
No way do the LibDems get 54 seats on 11% of the vote. If they get 11% of the vote, then I'd be staggered if they got more than 30.
I'm going to go out on a flyer and say they'll end up doing slightly better, percentage-wise, than the polls think, and end up on 13%. And I think they get 26-29 seats.
Does look high.
These are the Lib Dem seats
Bath Carshalton and Wallington Cheadle Cheltenham Chesham and Amersham Chippenham Didcot and Wantage Eastbourne Eastleigh Esher and Walton Farnham and Bordon Frome and East Somerset Glastonbury and Somerton Godalming and Ash Guildford Hazel Grove Henley and Thame Honiton and Sidmouth Kingston and Surbiton Lewes Melksham and Devizes Mid Dorset and North Poole Newton Abbot North Cornwall North Cotswolds North Devon North Dorset North Shropshire Oxford West and Abingdon Richmond Park South Cambridgeshire South Cotswolds South Devon St Albans St Ives Sutton and Cheam Taunton and Wellington Tewkesbury Thornbury and Yate Tiverton and Minehead Torbay Twickenham Wells and Mendip Hills West Dorset Westmorland and Lonsdale Wimbledon Winchester Witney Woking Yeovil Edinburgh West Mid Dunbartonshire North East Fife Orkney and Shetland
But on the other hand, a quick skim doesn't seem to throw up any absolute howlers of a "no way is that happening" sort. If Ed Davey's agents did "accidentally" leave a list of their target seats behind the cistern in the gents at Westminster's third dingiest pub for someone in Labour to "accidentally" pick up, it would probably look a lot like this. And a good night for the Lib Dems is getting 45% or so in 45 seats, and naff all elsewhere. It's all about efficiency.
And if the Conservatives are going to collapse, why shouldn't our besandled chums have some of the fun?
If the Lib Dems win most of these seats, they will win others not on this list. MRP polls are rough probabilities at the seat level. You don't expect to get every specific seat correct, but hope the ones where you have allocated the wrong party to even out.
Yes, personally, I would rank Harrogate as a better LD prospect than at least ten seats on this list, and Caithness etc. as a better prospect than twenty of them.
Morning all! The NI fandango is nearly over and the DUP morons are going to accept they lost the election. Supposedly their big objection was the border. So lets look at the latest fun at the GB border.
On Thursday the new Target Operating Model comes into effect. Almost all meat and dairy products will have to have swathes of new paperwork including vet certificates from the exporting country. We are not ready, so customs will allow in loads without the correct paperwork for 3 months. Last week saw a DEFRA online meeting with 800 importers on it. Just 4% said they were ready.
Supposedly we're phasing the rollout of TOM. Paperwork which we won't check from 1st February. And then paperwork and physical checks from 1st May. But the countries we export from are ready. A few examples: France - export loads have to be held for 48 hours for inspection. Spain - only a small number of facilities will have a vet who can certify your meat or dairy. If your product isn't produced there, they won't let you export it. UK - 24 hours notice needed for an import load.
If your food is fresh, or if shelf life is important (as UK supermarkets require at least 75% of manufactured life), you are fucked under TOM.
The industry is warning of exciting months ahead with big price rises and product withdrawals. Big client already has a couple of key lines which they simply cannot import to the UK any more - commercially not viable on the new rules.
For those of us who believe we should be self-sufficient in food (not import free, just self-sufficient) that sounds like a healthy set of incentives, albeit a massive implementation risk that all contented should have managed better over the last eight years.
"Farm or starve" isn't a plan, it's a plot point in "Threads"
Obviously you’re one of those who thinks it’s fine to rely on imports to feed the population (not for variety but in order to have enough calories). I have never accepted that, and I think it’s idiotic. Really not hard to avoid either, with a bit of investment in domestic supply.
The key word there is "investment". This government have replaced the lots of money from CAP with little money post Brexit. So farming has less money than ever - how can we invest?
We have been reliant on a proportion of imports since forever, and have made progress making ourselves more reliant. We could choose not to import certain things. Chicken as an example. First we would need to Eat Less Chicken. Second, we need to invest heavily in chicken farms so that we can switch off Brazilian and Thai chicken imports. Third we need to accept that we will pay a lot more for the chicken we still eat. Fourth we eat a lot less eggs and things with eggs in them.
I know that some of the wilder Brexit vox poppers said they'd rather eat grass than stay in the EU, but I doubt "pay less for more" was their expected outcome.
Surely Brazilian and Thai chicken farmers are outside the changes with the EU? Or are they being imported via the EU?
It really astonishes me how poorly prepared our government is to implement Brexit, even 4 or 8 years (depending on how you count) from when it happened. What bit about "Brexit means Brexit" didn't they understand?
Good morning all.
I think that's it Foxy. They had BJ do the marketing, then failed to get a competent administrator in, and this is now the whirlwind.
Trying not to believe in Government when it was very necessary probably does not help.
And now they are likely to have plenty of time to reflect whilst they are in the dustbin of history.
If anyone wants to understand how the government is helping us to become self-sufficient then it should check out the current Countryside Stewardship payment rates.
You can get £607/acre, for example (up from £577) - LH3 - for "Creation of heathland from arable or improved grassland".
The government, via its incentive schemes, does not want us to become food self-sufficient, whether that is a good or bad thing. It also, as per Rochdale's post, makes it harder and more expensive to import food.
Far from being a doom monger over Brexit I thought it was just a very stupid idea. Like electing a Labour government. I said it would not be catastrophic but more like the extra 2p on beer and fags in the budget. Most people wouldn't notice but would be poorer as a result.
And lo it seems to be doing exactly that.
Unlike voting Conservative which is a catastrophe we have noticed.
Fortunately for the Tories they have become self sufficient in harvesting enough votes imported from overseas to see them through next winter and beyond.
The other parties will be doing the same in trying to cultivate the voters of expats.
It's undemocratic. The other parties should boycott!
Morning all! I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!
I would assume the average age of people who’ve been outside the UK for over 15 years must be well into the 60s, possibly the 70s. So I’m pretty sure the vote share will be better than their domestic 20-30%.
Good morning
Our elder son emigrated to New Zealand (now lives in Canada) in 2003 and is 57
Morning all! I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!
Well if the local Conservative Association provides all the proxy voters, we know which way they will be voting.
I read years ago that this was a feature of the 1992 election. That of course may be an urban myth because I can't find reference to it on t'internet.
I wonder if the polling organisations will look into this post election, when they scratch their heads and ponder, "how did we get the election so badly wrong?"
So my son, once registered an overseas voter, will get a letter from ‘someone’ saying that they are willing to cast his vote for him as a proxy? Is that how it’s supposed to work? What happens when my son replies to say ‘thanks, please vote Labour?’
Morning all! I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!
Well if the local Conservative Association provides all the proxy voters, we know which way they will be voting.
I read years ago that this was a feature of the 1992 election. That of course may be an urban myth because I can't find reference to it on t'internet.
I wonder if the polling organisations will look into this post election, when they scratch their heads and ponder, "how did we get the election so badly wrong?"
So my son, once registered an overseas voter, will get a letter from ‘someone’ saying that they are willing to cast his vote for him as a proxy? Is that how it’s supposed to work? What happens when my son replies to say ‘thanks, please vote Labour?’
If you are registered as an overseas voter, you get sent a ballot paper.
Morning all! I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!
I would assume the average age of people who’ve been outside the UK for over 15 years must be well into the 60s, possibly the 70s. So I’m pretty sure the vote share will be better than their domestic 20-30%.
Good morning
Our elder son emigrated to New Zealand (now lives in Canada) in 2003 and is 57
He will have no interest in voting here
That’ll be the interesting question: turnout. Sadly I fear we’ll never get good stats on who voted and for what.
Much more fun to have the French approach of overseas constituencies. Imagine if parliament had a France and Spain seat, an ANZ seat, a US seat etc.
Looking at the furore surrounding Devi Sridhar and the Scottish govt, on Covid, I am reminded of Dr Deepti Gurdasani, and how we all used to listen to her as a sane voice on The Bug
Gurdasani flounced off to Western Australia and then whined that people weren't wearing masks on the buses over there.
Sridhar was obsessive about a Zero Covid environment and played a political as well. She was often used as a stick to beat the govt with as was the useless independent Sage. Some of whom still bang on about masks and Covid.
Independent Sage being set up, because the govt Sage apparently was controlled by Dominic Cummings or some other such bollocks, by "the citizens" a group linked to comnpsiracy theorist journalist Carol Cadwalladr.
These people need to realise their 15 minutes of fame is over, it has gone, it is not coming back. They were useful to the media to support their agenda at the time. They have no use now.
Morning all! I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!
Well if the local Conservative Association provides all the proxy voters, we know which way they will be voting.
I read years ago that this was a feature of the 1992 election. That of course may be an urban myth because I can't find reference to it on t'internet.
I wonder if the polling organisations will look into this post election, when they scratch their heads and ponder, "how did we get the election so badly wrong?"
So my son, once registered an overseas voter, will get a letter from ‘someone’ saying that they are willing to cast his vote for him as a proxy? Is that how it’s supposed to work? What happens when my son replies to say ‘thanks, please vote Labour?’
If you are registered as an overseas voter, you get sent a ballot paper.
That’s what I thought. Exactly the same as I, as a registered postal voter, do. So what’s all this about proxies?
Looking at the furore surrounding Devi Sridhar and the Scottish govt, on Covid, I am reminded of Dr Deepti Gurdasani, and how we all used to listen to her as a sane voice on The Bug
Morning all! The NI fandango is nearly over and the DUP morons are going to accept they lost the election. Supposedly their big objection was the border. So lets look at the latest fun at the GB border.
On Thursday the new Target Operating Model comes into effect. Almost all meat and dairy products will have to have swathes of new paperwork including vet certificates from the exporting country. We are not ready, so customs will allow in loads without the correct paperwork for 3 months. Last week saw a DEFRA online meeting with 800 importers on it. Just 4% said they were ready.
Supposedly we're phasing the rollout of TOM. Paperwork which we won't check from 1st February. And then paperwork and physical checks from 1st May. But the countries we export from are ready. A few examples: France - export loads have to be held for 48 hours for inspection. Spain - only a small number of facilities will have a vet who can certify your meat or dairy. If your product isn't produced there, they won't let you export it. UK - 24 hours notice needed for an import load.
If your food is fresh, or if shelf life is important (as UK supermarkets require at least 75% of manufactured life), you are fucked under TOM.
The industry is warning of exciting months ahead with big price rises and product withdrawals. Big client already has a couple of key lines which they simply cannot import to the UK any more - commercially not viable on the new rules.
For those of us who believe we should be self-sufficient in food (not import free, just self-sufficient) that sounds like a healthy set of incentives, albeit a massive implementation risk that all contented should have managed better over the last eight years.
"Farm or starve" isn't a plan, it's a plot point in "Threads"
Obviously you’re one of those who thinks it’s fine to rely on imports to feed the population (not for variety but in order to have enough calories). I have never accepted that, and I think it’s idiotic. Really not hard to avoid either, with a bit of investment in domestic supply.
The key word there is "investment". This government have replaced the lots of money from CAP with little money post Brexit. So farming has less money than ever - how can we invest?
We have been reliant on a proportion of imports since forever, and have made progress making ourselves more reliant. We could choose not to import certain things. Chicken as an example. First we would need to Eat Less Chicken. Second, we need to invest heavily in chicken farms so that we can switch off Brazilian and Thai chicken imports. Third we need to accept that we will pay a lot more for the chicken we still eat. Fourth we eat a lot less eggs and things with eggs in them.
I know that some of the wilder Brexit vox poppers said they'd rather eat grass than stay in the EU, but I doubt "pay less for more" was their expected outcome.
The experience so far of Brexit related drama is various industries and politicians crying wolf, and the wolf not appearing. Maybe this time will be different but I doubt it. Probably everything will be fine. The industry bodies wouldn’t be doing their job if they didn’t squeal a bit.
If you want to suggest fixes for some of the detailed examples I'm sure people will listen. This isn't "squeal a bit". This is asking how the fuck the day job is supposed to happen on Thursday.
An example. The Netherlands cannot import meat to the UK on Thursday. We may choose to waive the rules, but the member states cannot (bound by treaty).
"So what" you say. Well there is quite a lot of dutch pork used in the UK foodchain, mostly in manufacturing. Most of the industry wasn't aware just how bad this is (just 4% of 800 firms on the DEFRA call last week) and "we can't import" is such an outlandish proposition that its only as it slams you in the face it becomes apparent.
If this doesn't get resolved then alternatives will be procured. But higher cost, so the price of the end product goes up, as everything will do to soak up the vast cost of the new border model.
I know a lot of this is detail and who cares about detail? Well those people who actually have to do the job care. And the people who expect to find cheap and plentiful food will care when stuff they used to buy disappears and what they can get costs more. We've had repeated waves of this, the new wave starts on Thursday.
A recent 'Cost of brexit' in case there aren't enough reasons to get rid of this Tory/UKIP government
We are, of course, probably a bit poorer than we would have been, but that report was comically bad. Of course the real answer is that it’s impossible to know because things like Covid has much bigger impacts and have driven very different behaviours that you can’t really project into any counter-factual.
Edit - I had forgotten that one of the hilarious headlines is that there are supposedly 2m fewer job than there would have been if we stayed in. There’s only 1.5m job seekers, and immigration has gone up if anything…..
And a "Range". I went to the one at the Metro centre. It's ace. I realise this site is predominantly occupied by posh and well off people who wouldn't be seen dead in such a low brow place but I got some great jars for my home pickling and sauce making.
Looking at the furore surrounding Devi Sridhar and the Scottish govt, on Covid, I am reminded of Dr Deepti Gurdasani, and how we all used to listen to her as a sane voice on The Bug
Morning all! I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!
Well if the local Conservative Association provides all the proxy voters, we know which way they will be voting.
I read years ago that this was a feature of the 1992 election. That of course may be an urban myth because I can't find reference to it on t'internet.
I wonder if the polling organisations will look into this post election, when they scratch their heads and ponder, "how did we get the election so badly wrong?"
So my son, once registered an overseas voter, will get a letter from ‘someone’ saying that they are willing to cast his vote for him as a proxy? Is that how it’s supposed to work? What happens when my son replies to say ‘thanks, please vote Labour?’
Morning all! I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!
Well if the local Conservative Association provides all the proxy voters, we know which way they will be voting.
I read years ago that this was a feature of the 1992 election. That of course may be an urban myth because I can't find reference to it on t'internet.
I wonder if the polling organisations will look into this post election, when they scratch their heads and ponder, "how did we get the election so badly wrong?"
So my son, once registered an overseas voter, will get a letter from ‘someone’ saying that they are willing to cast his vote for him as a proxy? Is that how it’s supposed to work? What happens when my son replies to say ‘thanks, please vote Labour?’
If you are registered as an overseas voter, you get sent a ballot paper.
That’s what I thought. Exactly the same as I, as a registered postal voter, do. So what’s all this about proxies?
Don't worry about it. The Tories may have cunningly increased the number of overseas voters by factor of five, but Royal Mail have kindly reduced their ability to deliver the forms by a similar factor.
Morning all! The NI fandango is nearly over and the DUP morons are going to accept they lost the election. Supposedly their big objection was the border. So lets look at the latest fun at the GB border.
On Thursday the new Target Operating Model comes into effect. Almost all meat and dairy products will have to have swathes of new paperwork including vet certificates from the exporting country. We are not ready, so customs will allow in loads without the correct paperwork for 3 months. Last week saw a DEFRA online meeting with 800 importers on it. Just 4% said they were ready.
Supposedly we're phasing the rollout of TOM. Paperwork which we won't check from 1st February. And then paperwork and physical checks from 1st May. But the countries we export from are ready. A few examples: France - export loads have to be held for 48 hours for inspection. Spain - only a small number of facilities will have a vet who can certify your meat or dairy. If your product isn't produced there, they won't let you export it. UK - 24 hours notice needed for an import load.
If your food is fresh, or if shelf life is important (as UK supermarkets require at least 75% of manufactured life), you are fucked under TOM.
The industry is warning of exciting months ahead with big price rises and product withdrawals. Big client already has a couple of key lines which they simply cannot import to the UK any more - commercially not viable on the new rules.
For those of us who believe we should be self-sufficient in food (not import free, just self-sufficient) that sounds like a healthy set of incentives, albeit a massive implementation risk that all contented should have managed better over the last eight years.
"Farm or starve" isn't a plan, it's a plot point in "Threads"
Obviously you’re one of those who thinks it’s fine to rely on imports to feed the population (not for variety but in order to have enough calories). I have never accepted that, and I think it’s idiotic. Really not hard to avoid either, with a bit of investment in domestic supply.
The key word there is "investment". This government have replaced the lots of money from CAP with little money post Brexit. So farming has less money than ever - how can we invest?
We have been reliant on a proportion of imports since forever, and have made progress making ourselves more reliant. We could choose not to import certain things. Chicken as an example. First we would need to Eat Less Chicken. Second, we need to invest heavily in chicken farms so that we can switch off Brazilian and Thai chicken imports. Third we need to accept that we will pay a lot more for the chicken we still eat. Fourth we eat a lot less eggs and things with eggs in them.
I know that some of the wilder Brexit vox poppers said they'd rather eat grass than stay in the EU, but I doubt "pay less for more" was their expected outcome.
The experience so far of Brexit related drama is various industries and politicians crying wolf, and the wolf not appearing. Maybe this time will be different but I doubt it. Probably everything will be fine. The industry bodies wouldn’t be doing their job if they didn’t squeal a bit.
If you want to suggest fixes for some of the detailed examples I'm sure people will listen. This isn't "squeal a bit". This is asking how the fuck the day job is supposed to happen on Thursday.
An example. The Netherlands cannot import meat to the UK on Thursday. We may choose to waive the rules, but the member states cannot (bound by treaty).
"So what" you say. Well there is quite a lot of dutch pork used in the UK foodchain, mostly in manufacturing. Most of the industry wasn't aware just how bad this is (just 4% of 800 firms on the DEFRA call last week) and "we can't import" is such an outlandish proposition that its only as it slams you in the face it becomes apparent.
If this doesn't get resolved then alternatives will be procured. But higher cost, so the price of the end product goes up, as everything will do to soak up the vast cost of the new border model.
I know a lot of this is detail and who cares about detail? Well those people who actually have to do the job care. And the people who expect to find cheap and plentiful food will care when stuff they used to buy disappears and what they can get costs more. We've had repeated waves of this, the new wave starts on Thursday.
So industry has been lazy and hasn’t bothered? Hopefully the 4% that did their job steal market share.
No, 96% on the call - my big client included - haven't been able to get ready as the thing they are getting ready for doesn't work. Which is why customs are now saying they will wave duff paperwork through for 3 months. But unless Barclay does something about the lengthy snag list highlighted on the letter, things won't be ready for the end of April either.
As for "steal market share" I have one simple question - do you know how anything works?
Lets take dutch pork, bought for a ready meal manufacturer. They cannot just switch supply to someone else, even if there is other supply available. They have to have ensured that the factory and abattoir and supply chain of the alternative supplier is clean and certified. Which means a visit. They have to get approval from whichever company (e.g. Tesco) that meat is being supplied to under their name. Which means another visit. And paperwork.
The food industry is not just an open marketplace where traders stand there in white coats bidding on joints. That happens - for direct supply to a restaurant. But if you need 250 tons a week? No.
Looking at the furore surrounding Devi Sridhar and the Scottish govt, on Covid, I am reminded of Dr Deepti Gurdasani, and how we all used to listen to her as a sane voice on The Bug
The ‘we’ is presumably all those PB usernames that share the same granular obsession with LAB LEAKS, XL BULLY, UFOs, WOKE etc
Given that you have one solitary, singular and arse-achingly tedious obsession - SCOTTISH INDY!!! - and you find it emotionally hard to talk about anything else - this accusation seems quite ill-advised
No way do the LibDems get 54 seats on 11% of the vote. If they get 11% of the vote, then I'd be staggered if they got more than 30.
I'm going to go out on a flyer and say they'll end up doing slightly better, percentage-wise, than the polls think, and end up on 13%. And I think they get 26-29 seats.
Does look high.
These are the Lib Dem seats
Bath Carshalton and Wallington Cheadle Cheltenham Chesham and Amersham Chippenham Didcot and Wantage Eastbourne Eastleigh Esher and Walton Farnham and Bordon Frome and East Somerset Glastonbury and Somerton Godalming and Ash Guildford Hazel Grove Henley and Thame Honiton and Sidmouth Kingston and Surbiton Lewes Melksham and Devizes Mid Dorset and North Poole Newton Abbot North Cornwall North Cotswolds North Devon North Dorset North Shropshire Oxford West and Abingdon Richmond Park South Cambridgeshire South Cotswolds South Devon St Albans St Ives Sutton and Cheam Taunton and Wellington Tewkesbury Thornbury and Yate Tiverton and Minehead Torbay Twickenham Wells and Mendip Hills West Dorset Westmorland and Lonsdale Wimbledon Winchester Witney Woking Yeovil Edinburgh West Mid Dunbartonshire North East Fife Orkney and Shetland
But on the other hand, a quick skim doesn't seem to throw up any absolute howlers of a "no way is that happening" sort. If Ed Davey's agents did "accidentally" leave a list of their target seats behind the cistern in the gents at Westminster's third dingiest pub for someone in Labour to "accidentally" pick up, it would probably look a lot like this. And a good night for the Lib Dems is getting 45% or so in 45 seats, and naff all elsewhere. It's all about efficiency.
And if the Conservatives are going to collapse, why shouldn't our besandled chums have some of the fun?
If the Lib Dems win most of these seats, they will win others not on this list. MRP polls are rough probabilities at the seat level. You don't expect to get every specific seat correct, but hope the ones where you have allocated the wrong party to even out.
Yes, personally, I would rank Harrogate as a better LD prospect than at least ten seats on this list, and Caithness etc. as a better prospect than twenty of them.
Looking at the furore surrounding Devi Sridhar and the Scottish govt, on Covid, I am reminded of Dr Deepti Gurdasani, and how we all used to listen to her as a sane voice on The Bug
Gurdasani flounced off to Western Australia and then whined that people weren't wearing masks on the buses over there.
Sridhar was obsessive about a Zero Covid environment and played a political as well. She was often used as a stick to beat the govt with as was the useless independent Sage. Some of whom still bang on about masks and Covid.
Independent Sage being set up, because the govt Sage apparently was controlled by Dominic Cummings or some other such bollocks, by "the citizens" a group linked to comnpsiracy theorist journalist Carol Cadwalladr.
These people need to realise their 15 minutes of fame is over, it has gone, it is not coming back. They were useful to the media to support their agenda at the time. They have no use now.
Her TwiX feed gives the impression of someone who has basically lost her mind. But then again, TwiX does that to 97% of users, so maybe she's just cranky online
Looking at the furore surrounding Devi Sridhar and the Scottish govt, on Covid, I am reminded of Dr Deepti Gurdasani, and how we all used to listen to her as a sane voice on The Bug
The ‘we’ is presumably all those PB usernames that share the same granular obsession with LAB LEAKS, XL BULLY, UFOs, WOKE etc
Given that you have one solitary, singular and arse-achingly tedious obsession - SCOTTISH INDY!!! - and you find it emotionally hard to talk about anything else - this accusation seems quite ill-advised
I suggest long term overseas citizens should be eligible to vote as long as they pay a UK non resident tax of 5% on global income. No representation without taxation.
Morning all! I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!
I would assume the average age of people who’ve been outside the UK for over 15 years must be well into the 60s, possibly the 70s. So I’m pretty sure the vote share will be better than their domestic 20-30%.
Good morning
Our elder son emigrated to New Zealand (now lives in Canada) in 2003 and is 57
He will have no interest in voting here
That’ll be the interesting question: turnout. Sadly I fear we’ll never get good stats on who voted and for what.
Much more fun to have the French approach of overseas constituencies. Imagine if parliament had a France and Spain seat, an ANZ seat, a US seat etc.
In a Parliamentary election, the overseas residents are registered in the UK constituency where they were last seen.
It would be an interesting exercise to have half a dozen seats representing Brits abroad, as the French do, and who likely care more about foreign policy than NHS spending, for example.
I’m in two minds about the change, I don’t particularly like changes to the voting system that can be portrayed as being for political advantage, but I will say that one of the lovely things about living in Expatsville, are the reports of queues that form outside one country’s embassy almost every week, indicating that it’s that country’s turn to vote.
Doesn't look remotely like Haley is gonna throw the towel in just yet.
With no one else staying in she might as well. She only has a chance in the event of a Trump coronary, but despite her not really bringing out the strong attacks on Trump until quite recently (she couldn't if she wanted as much support as she managed), it's not as though she will still have a career when he wins, he won't forgive the things she has said and she cannot offer him anything to change that.
So if she is actually trying to stop Trump (even if she cannot say that), then she should stay in as long as she can afford it, because it drives him nuts.
I'd assume in reality she will try to stay in until Super Tuesday, then roll in behind him.
Within the next 72 hours, Trump is going to lose his ability to do business in New York, have a close-on half billion loss of wealth - and also lose his much-vaunted mantle of being some business genius. He's just going to be shown up for the tawdry huckster he is.
Some scales are going to fall from eyes, so Haley might as well stay in.
The idea that a court decision on a dubious case will "show him up" is wishful thinking. It's more likely to show the New York legal system up.
A "dubious case"? Oh FFS - he's been found guilty of multiple counts of fraud. He doesn't get to stand apart from that, because he was President. He's getting what anybody else would get - justice. That the value he will get to lose is commensurate with the level of that fraud - that is justice.
This is not petty political vindictiveness. It is as a result of Grand Jury charges, brought and then proved in court. Trump deserves all the tonnage of shit that is about to descend upon him.
And that is before we get on to January 6th. Where the mob he whipped up tried to cheat his way to not giving up office. Where democracy was at risk. Where people died - all for the vanity of a man who just cannot concede that he is a loser.
Whom did he defraud?
Deutsche Bank offered him loans and did their own due diligence on the security he put up. Valuations of illiquid real estate are always somewhat subjective. What he did isn't fraud.
He inflated the size of his properties. He inflated their worth. He got preferential rates on loans that would not be available to somebody not committing that fraud. So he committed fraud on Deutsche Bank. He also committed fraud on all those voters who played by the rules - and didn't get loans at those rates. Those who struggled to keep their businesses afloat. Those who lost their businesses.
There is a vast trail of evidence that over a period of many years, he gave very low valuations for property taxes and very high valuations on the very same properties for obtaining loans.
Fraud. On a massive scale.
Read about it in remarkable detail in the judgment when it is handed down. Then come back and shill for Trump. He'll be needing some new lawyers then. You can act for him.
Just don't expect any thanks. Or any payment.
Just don't expect it to shift the polls against Trump, otherwise I'm afraid you'll work yourself up into an even bigger state of hysteria.
No hysteria my end.
And it is already moving the polls. Otherwise Haley wouldn't still be in the race, raising millions. Watch the vox pops. Those people voting Haley are going to vote Biden, if the alternative is Trump.
I've just seen an alternative explanation of why Haley didn't drop out of what seems to be an almost unwinnable race with Trump. She is raising more money than Trump! That is amazing and must infuriate Trump. The money seems to be coming from corporations who would love a Republican but don't want Trump. So, Trump has been viciously attacking Haley and has threatened to exclude anyone from his campaign who supports Haley. However, one way for him to get hold of the money Haley has raised is to make her his VP pick. 'Birdbrain' for Vice President, anyone?
Morning all! I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!
I would assume the average age of people who’ve been outside the UK for over 15 years must be well into the 60s, possibly the 70s. So I’m pretty sure the vote share will be better than their domestic 20-30%.
Good morning
Our elder son emigrated to New Zealand (now lives in Canada) in 2003 and is 57
He will have no interest in voting here
That’ll be the interesting question: turnout. Sadly I fear we’ll never get good stats on who voted and for what.
Much more fun to have the French approach of overseas constituencies. Imagine if parliament had a France and Spain seat, an ANZ seat, a US seat etc.
In a Parliamentary election, the overseas residents are registered in the UK constituency where they were last seen.
It would be an interesting exercise to have half a dozen seats representing Brits abroad, as the French do, and who likely care more about foreign policy than NHS spending, for example.
I’m in two minds about the change, I don’t particularly like changes to the voting system that can be portrayed as being for political advantage, but I will say that one of the lovely things about living in Expatsville, are the reports of queues that form outside one country’s embassy almost every week, indicating that it’s that country’s turn to vote.
Labour can use that argument when it comes to voting for under 16s. Yes its a shame that we are doing this to skew the results of the next election, but isn't it so lovely to see all the youngsters getting more engaged with politics.
Morning all! I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!
Well if the local Conservative Association provides all the proxy voters, we know which way they will be voting.
I read years ago that this was a feature of the 1992 election. That of course may be an urban myth because I can't find reference to it on t'internet.
I wonder if the polling organisations will look into this post election, when they scratch their heads and ponder, "how did we get the election so badly wrong?"
So my son, once registered an overseas voter, will get a letter from ‘someone’ saying that they are willing to cast his vote for him as a proxy? Is that how it’s supposed to work? What happens when my son replies to say ‘thanks, please vote Labour?’
They say 'yes, of course that's all right' and then tick the Tory box when the time comes. That's the way it is supposed to work.
Morning all! The NI fandango is nearly over and the DUP morons are going to accept they lost the election. Supposedly their big objection was the border. So lets look at the latest fun at the GB border.
On Thursday the new Target Operating Model comes into effect. Almost all meat and dairy products will have to have swathes of new paperwork including vet certificates from the exporting country. We are not ready, so customs will allow in loads without the correct paperwork for 3 months. Last week saw a DEFRA online meeting with 800 importers on it. Just 4% said they were ready.
Supposedly we're phasing the rollout of TOM. Paperwork which we won't check from 1st February. And then paperwork and physical checks from 1st May. But the countries we export from are ready. A few examples: France - export loads have to be held for 48 hours for inspection. Spain - only a small number of facilities will have a vet who can certify your meat or dairy. If your product isn't produced there, they won't let you export it. UK - 24 hours notice needed for an import load.
If your food is fresh, or if shelf life is important (as UK supermarkets require at least 75% of manufactured life), you are fucked under TOM.
The industry is warning of exciting months ahead with big price rises and product withdrawals. Big client already has a couple of key lines which they simply cannot import to the UK any more - commercially not viable on the new rules.
More tosh. My brother has no problem getting any type of food he fancies. Nobody in NI is starving.
Yes, but your brother lives off beans and chips. 😃
Rather more to the point, he lives in the EU, if he is in NI. We in GB don't.
Morning all! I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!
Well if the local Conservative Association provides all the proxy voters, we know which way they will be voting.
I read years ago that this was a feature of the 1992 election. That of course may be an urban myth because I can't find reference to it on t'internet.
I wonder if the polling organisations will look into this post election, when they scratch their heads and ponder, "how did we get the election so badly wrong?"
When I was once canvassing for a by-election up north, a care home nurse offered to cast all the votes of dementia residents for us. I declined, but a few weeks later there was a scandal when it was alleged that the same offer had been made to a canvasser for another party, who had (allegedly) accepted. I imagine that there is quite a bit of such skulldggery at the edges of politics, with luck not enough to change anything.
Looking at the furore surrounding Devi Sridhar and the Scottish govt, on Covid, I am reminded of Dr Deepti Gurdasani, and how we all used to listen to her as a sane voice on The Bug
The ‘we’ is presumably all those PB usernames that share the same granular obsession with LAB LEAKS, XL BULLY, UFOs, WOKE etc
Given that you have one solitary, singular and arse-achingly tedious obsession - SCOTTISH INDY!!! - and you find it emotionally hard to talk about anything else - this accusation seems quite ill-advised
TUD is also obsessive on the Trans issue as well.
But he comments on a wide range of matters. Are you suire you two aren't the ones with monocular eyepieces?
China property bust threatens to backfire on the west
There is alot of debt out there. lenders will struggle to get their cash back. This may end up being a lesson for people investing in China as to the risks.
No way do the LibDems get 54 seats on 11% of the vote. If they get 11% of the vote, then I'd be staggered if they got more than 30.
I'm going to go out on a flyer and say they'll end up doing slightly better, percentage-wise, than the polls think, and end up on 13%. And I think they get 26-29 seats.
Does look high.
These are the Lib Dem seats
Bath Carshalton and Wallington Cheadle Cheltenham Chesham and Amersham Chippenham Didcot and Wantage Eastbourne Eastleigh Esher and Walton Farnham and Bordon Frome and East Somerset Glastonbury and Somerton Godalming and Ash Guildford Hazel Grove Henley and Thame Honiton and Sidmouth Kingston and Surbiton Lewes Melksham and Devizes Mid Dorset and North Poole Newton Abbot North Cornwall North Cotswolds North Devon North Dorset North Shropshire Oxford West and Abingdon Richmond Park South Cambridgeshire South Cotswolds South Devon St Albans St Ives Sutton and Cheam Taunton and Wellington Tewkesbury Thornbury and Yate Tiverton and Minehead Torbay Twickenham Wells and Mendip Hills West Dorset Westmorland and Lonsdale Wimbledon Winchester Witney Woking Yeovil Edinburgh West Mid Dunbartonshire North East Fife Orkney and Shetland
But on the other hand, a quick skim doesn't seem to throw up any absolute howlers of a "no way is that happening" sort. If Ed Davey's agents did "accidentally" leave a list of their target seats behind the cistern in the gents at Westminster's third dingiest pub for someone in Labour to "accidentally" pick up, it would probably look a lot like this. And a good night for the Lib Dems is getting 45% or so in 45 seats, and naff all elsewhere. It's all about efficiency.
And if the Conservatives are going to collapse, why shouldn't our besandled chums have some of the fun?
If the Lib Dems win most of these seats, they will win others not on this list. MRP polls are rough probabilities at the seat level. You don't expect to get every specific seat correct, but hope the ones where you have allocated the wrong party to even out.
Yes, personally, I would rank Harrogate as a better LD prospect than at least ten seats on this list, and Caithness etc. as a better prospect than twenty of them.
I've just read the Peter Kellner article. The difference between his purity and reality options will account for a large part of the "Roll Back" effect that is often talked about here. The Roll Back is in a large part due to previous government voters being pissed off with the government, and say to pollsters they won't vote but when it comes to voting day many will vote for the same party as last time. This is the correction being estimated for the Reality Option. The other Roll Back effect is from a genuine change in opinion. That's the different between a now-cast and a forecast, people who like the look of Labour but in the end are persuaded that Conservative is a better choice. This is not accounted for in the Reality option, but I would suggest that this government is so rudderless, that the chances they get to steer some floating voters back to them is quite small.
China property bust threatens to backfire on the west
There is alot of debt out there. lenders will struggle to get their cash back. This may end up being a lesson for people investing in China as to the risks.
The CCP has managed to totally lose control of the property market in China.
They’ve allowed tens of millions of flats to be built in new cities and on the outskirts of existing cities, but there’s no-one to live in them, many remain unsold and many more are being handed back to lenders by the buyers.
I saw this and just thought 'what an idiot'. He's paid roughly double what I earn and my mortgage is about £830 per month (thanks 10 year fix at 3.45%!). If my mortgage doubled, but my salary did so to, I reckon I'd still be okay. Sure, the tax system means I'd probably wouldn't double my net, but I'd still manage. Might not be able to shop at Waitrose anymore, and have to cut back his six holidays to just two, but there is no reason you can't manage on £118k gross a year.
I saw this and just thought 'what an idiot'. He's paid roughly double what I earn and my mortgage is about £830 per month (thanks 10 year fix at 3.45%!). If my mortgage doubled, but my salary did so to, I reckon I'd still be okay. Sure, the tax system means I'd probably wouldn't double my net, but I'd still manage. Might not be able to shop at Waitrose anymore, and have to cut back his six holidays to just two, but there is no reason you can't manage on £118k gross a year.
Remember to factor in the costs for your second home too!
China property bust threatens to backfire on the west
There is alot of debt out there. lenders will struggle to get their cash back. This may end up being a lesson for people investing in China as to the risks.
The CCP has managed to totally lose control of the property market in China.
They’ve allowed tens of millions of flats to be built in new cities and on the outskirts of existing cities, but there’s no-one to live in them, many remain unsold and many more are being handed back to lenders by the buyers.
There are plenty of videos on youtube of these deserted, empty, towns. It is quite amszing and as the population falls there will be less and less demand for these properties.
Evergrande has been on the brink for a while. Let's hope the lenders have had time to prepare for this as it cannot be a shock. Hopefully this won't lead to a global shock like the US housing market crash. I think it could lead to fewer investments in China as a consequence. Especially if investors find it hard to get anything back.
Power sharing is back! The DUP have a deal. We await details. Will it actually do anything to ease GB/NI trade? How much does it impact Johnson’s Brexit deal more broadly?
But good news for Northern Ireland and the clock goes back to normal on the next Assembly election, which should now be 6 May 2027. The DUP, SF, UUP and Alliance are meeting to discuss forming the new executive.
The next general election will be the first electoral test of these events. With most NI elections under STV, the one set of FPTP elections often see considerable negotiation and strategising over certain parties not standing in certain seats, particularly on the Unionist side.
Quite the coup for Sunak to get Donaldson to return the DUP to powersharing with SF at Stormont. Seems ensuring no checks on goods between GB and NI building on the Windsor Framework was key
Former Pakistani PM Imran Khan sentenced to ten years in jail for allegedly leaking state secrets "Imran Khan: Pakistan former PM jailed in state secrets case as election looms - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68138591
Looking at the furore surrounding Devi Sridhar and the Scottish govt, on Covid, I am reminded of Dr Deepti Gurdasani, and how we all used to listen to her as a sane voice on The Bug
The ‘we’ is presumably all those PB usernames that share the same granular obsession with LAB LEAKS, XL BULLY, UFOs, WOKE etc
Given that you have one solitary, singular and arse-achingly tedious obsession - SCOTTISH INDY!!! - and you find it emotionally hard to talk about anything else - this accusation seems quite ill-advised
Lol, you and other PBers of your ilk are never done giving your irrelevant opinions on SCOTTISH INDY!!!. Admittedly it's the same low-information opinion over and over again, but still..
If anyone wants to understand how the government is helping us to become self-sufficient then it should check out the current Countryside Stewardship payment rates.
You can get £607/ha, for example (up from £577) - LH3 - for "Creation of heathland from arable or improved grassland".
The government, via its incentive schemes, does not want us to become food self-sufficient, whether that is a good or bad thing. It also, as per Rochdale's post, makes it harder and more expensive to import food.
Far from being a doom monger over Brexit I thought it was just a very stupid idea. Like electing a Labour government. I said it would not be catastrophic but more like the extra 2p on beer and fags in the budget. Most people wouldn't notice but would be poorer as a result.
And lo it seems to be doing exactly that.
Unlike voting Conservative which is a catastrophe we have noticed.
Fortunately for the Tories they have become self sufficient in harvesting enough votes imported from overseas to see them through next winter and beyond.
Yeah there's some stiff competition for who it would be stupid to vote for, right now.
Yup. I am no longer voting, at all, apart from for a local independent councillor.
Absolute waste of time. You are simply buying in to and legitimising a system where politicians do as they please and take your vote as an endorsement of their actions.
Whilst I understand the point of view (as per yesterday's thread), the drawback is that the voting pool will more and more consist of those who are content with the current system and choices (as those who are not content withdraw from it).
China property bust threatens to backfire on the west
There is alot of debt out there. lenders will struggle to get their cash back. This may end up being a lesson for people investing in China as to the risks.
The CCP has managed to totally lose control of the property market in China.
They’ve allowed tens of millions of flats to be built in new cities and on the outskirts of existing cities, but there’s no-one to live in them, many remain unsold and many more are being handed back to lenders by the buyers.
There are plenty of videos on youtube of these deserted, empty, towns. It is quite amszing and as the population falls there will be less and less demand for these properties.
Evergrande has been on the brink for a while. Let's hope the lenders have had time to prepare for this as it cannot be a shock. Hopefully this won't lead to a global shock like the US housing market crash. I think it could lead to fewer investments in China as a consequence. Especially if investors find it hard to get anything back.
Possible civil unrest too ?
Yes, let’s hope that everyone has seen where this was all going to end up.
Random off-the-wall thinking moment, why don’t Western countries club together to buy a city in China, and use it to house all of their illegal immigrants? Run it as one big free zone under an agreed Western legal framework.
I suggest long term overseas citizens should be eligible to vote as long as they pay a UK non resident tax of 5% on global income. No representation without taxation.
Many already pay UK tax. My teachers pension is fully taxed I'm the UK by payed.
If anyone wants to understand how the government is helping us to become self-sufficient then it should check out the current Countryside Stewardship payment rates.
You can get £607/acre, for example (up from £577) - LH3 - for "Creation of heathland from arable or improved grassland".
The government, via its incentive schemes, does not want us to become food self-sufficient, whether that is a good or bad thing. It also, as per Rochdale's post, makes it harder and more expensive to import food.
Far from being a doom monger over Brexit I thought it was just a very stupid idea. Like electing a Labour government. I said it would not be catastrophic but more like the extra 2p on beer and fags in the budget. Most people wouldn't notice but would be poorer as a result.
And lo it seems to be doing exactly that.
Unlike voting Conservative which is a catastrophe we have noticed.
Fortunately for the Tories they have become self sufficient in harvesting enough votes imported from overseas to see them through next winter and beyond.
The other parties will be doing the same in trying to cultivate the voters of expats.
Idiot emigrants should not be allowed anywhere near a vote. Pathetic.
I saw this and just thought 'what an idiot'. He's paid roughly double what I earn and my mortgage is about £830 per month (thanks 10 year fix at 3.45%!). If my mortgage doubled, but my salary did so to, I reckon I'd still be okay. Sure, the tax system means I'd probably wouldn't double my net, but I'd still manage. Might not be able to shop at Waitrose anymore, and have to cut back his six holidays to just two, but there is no reason you can't manage on £118k gross a year.
It's no wonder we're in trouble if ministers of the crown are so incapable of organising their finances.
I suggest long term overseas citizens should be eligible to vote as long as they pay a UK non resident tax of 5% on global income. No representation without taxation.
Many already pay UK tax. My teachers pension is fully taxed I'm the UK by payed.
Fair point, happy for that to count as an alternative for eligibility, subject to some nominal minimum, off the top of my head around £2k tax paid.
Before someone says what about resident citizens who don't pay that much, nearly everyone is paying more through VAT, council tax and other taxes, even if not on income tax.
If anyone wants to understand how the government is helping us to become self-sufficient then it should check out the current Countryside Stewardship payment rates.
You can get £607/acre, for example (up from £577) - LH3 - for "Creation of heathland from arable or improved grassland".
The government, via its incentive schemes, does not want us to become food self-sufficient, whether that is a good or bad thing. It also, as per Rochdale's post, makes it harder and more expensive to import food.
Far from being a doom monger over Brexit I thought it was just a very stupid idea. Like electing a Labour government. I said it would not be catastrophic but more like the extra 2p on beer and fags in the budget. Most people wouldn't notice but would be poorer as a result.
And lo it seems to be doing exactly that.
Unlike voting Conservative which is a catastrophe we have noticed.
Fortunately for the Tories they have become self sufficient in harvesting enough votes imported from overseas to see them through next winter and beyond.
The other parties will be doing the same in trying to cultivate the voters of expats.
Idiot emigrants should not be allowed anywhere near a vote. Pathetic.
Don’t disagree Malc, and how many will want to vote anyway.
Looking at the furore surrounding Devi Sridhar and the Scottish govt, on Covid, I am reminded of Dr Deepti Gurdasani, and how we all used to listen to her as a sane voice on The Bug
The ‘we’ is presumably all those PB usernames that share the same granular obsession with LAB LEAKS, XL BULLY, UFOs, WOKE etc
Given that you have one solitary, singular and arse-achingly tedious obsession - SCOTTISH INDY!!! - and you find it emotionally hard to talk about anything else - this accusation seems quite ill-advised
TUD is also obsessive on the Trans issue as well.
Surely if one is obsessive on a large number of things that makes you well-rounded.
Labour 22 point lead and, more significantly, polling at 49%
SKS stance on Gaza is not harming labour.
He sounded slightly more pro Israel than Sunak near the start of the conflict but I couldn't tell you the difference between Labour and Conservative policies on foreign affairs/defence now tbh. & I guess that's how SKS wants it.
China property bust threatens to backfire on the west
There is alot of debt out there. lenders will struggle to get their cash back. This may end up being a lesson for people investing in China as to the risks.
China property bust threatens to backfire on the west
There is alot of debt out there. lenders will struggle to get their cash back. This may end up being a lesson for people investing in China as to the risks.
Imran Khan gets locked up in Pakistan for the election.
As discussed on the last thread we don’t like our politicians much but we should be grateful that we don’t have this sort of nonsense. America needs to be careful about the lawfare path it is going down, whatever the provocation.
China property bust threatens to backfire on the west
There is alot of debt out there. lenders will struggle to get their cash back. This may end up being a lesson for people investing in China as to the risks.
China property bust threatens to backfire on the west
There is alot of debt out there. lenders will struggle to get their cash back. This may end up being a lesson for people investing in China as to the risks.
The CCP has managed to totally lose control of the property market in China.
They’ve allowed tens of millions of flats to be built in new cities and on the outskirts of existing cities, but there’s no-one to live in them, many remain unsold and many more are being handed back to lenders by the buyers.
There are plenty of videos on youtube of these deserted, empty, towns. It is quite amszing and as the population falls there will be less and less demand for these properties.
Evergrande has been on the brink for a while. Let's hope the lenders have had time to prepare for this as it cannot be a shock. Hopefully this won't lead to a global shock like the US housing market crash. I think it could lead to fewer investments in China as a consequence. Especially if investors find it hard to get anything back.
Possible civil unrest too ?
People really losing out are going to be Communist Party high-ups. They'll have to do something to fill them, in a country whose population is way below what they say it is anyway.
They'll probably do a reverse Pol Pot and bring everybody from the country into the cities. And destroy agriculture in the process.
Morning all! The NI fandango is nearly over and the DUP morons are going to accept they lost the election. Supposedly their big objection was the border. So lets look at the latest fun at the GB border.
On Thursday the new Target Operating Model comes into effect. Almost all meat and dairy products will have to have swathes of new paperwork including vet certificates from the exporting country. We are not ready, so customs will allow in loads without the correct paperwork for 3 months. Last week saw a DEFRA online meeting with 800 importers on it. Just 4% said they were ready.
Supposedly we're phasing the rollout of TOM. Paperwork which we won't check from 1st February. And then paperwork and physical checks from 1st May. But the countries we export from are ready. A few examples: France - export loads have to be held for 48 hours for inspection. Spain - only a small number of facilities will have a vet who can certify your meat or dairy. If your product isn't produced there, they won't let you export it. UK - 24 hours notice needed for an import load.
If your food is fresh, or if shelf life is important (as UK supermarkets require at least 75% of manufactured life), you are fucked under TOM.
The industry is warning of exciting months ahead with big price rises and product withdrawals. Big client already has a couple of key lines which they simply cannot import to the UK any more - commercially not viable on the new rules.
For those of us who believe we should be self-sufficient in food (not import free, just self-sufficient) that sounds like a healthy set of incentives, albeit a massive implementation risk that all contented should have managed better over the last eight years.
"Farm or starve" isn't a plan, it's a plot point in "Threads"
Obviously you’re one of those who thinks it’s fine to rely on imports to feed the population (not for variety but in order to have enough calories). I have never accepted that, and I think it’s idiotic. Really not hard to avoid either, with a bit of investment in domestic supply.
The key word there is "investment". This government have replaced the lots of money from CAP with little money post Brexit. So farming has less money than ever - how can we invest?
We have been reliant on a proportion of imports since forever, and have made progress making ourselves more reliant. We could choose not to import certain things. Chicken as an example. First we would need to Eat Less Chicken. Second, we need to invest heavily in chicken farms so that we can switch off Brazilian and Thai chicken imports. Third we need to accept that we will pay a lot more for the chicken we still eat. Fourth we eat a lot less eggs and things with eggs in them.
I know that some of the wilder Brexit vox poppers said they'd rather eat grass than stay in the EU, but I doubt "pay less for more" was their expected outcome.
The experience so far of Brexit related drama is various industries and politicians crying wolf, and the wolf not appearing. Maybe this time will be different but I doubt it. Probably everything will be fine. The industry bodies wouldn’t be doing their job if they didn’t squeal a bit.
If you want to suggest fixes for some of the detailed examples I'm sure people will listen. This isn't "squeal a bit". This is asking how the fuck the day job is supposed to happen on Thursday.
An example. The Netherlands cannot import meat to the UK on Thursday. We may choose to waive the rules, but the member states cannot (bound by treaty).
"So what" you say. Well there is quite a lot of dutch pork used in the UK foodchain, mostly in manufacturing. Most of the industry wasn't aware just how bad this is (just 4% of 800 firms on the DEFRA call last week) and "we can't import" is such an outlandish proposition that its only as it slams you in the face it becomes apparent.
If this doesn't get resolved then alternatives will be procured. But higher cost, so the price of the end product goes up, as everything will do to soak up the vast cost of the new border model.
I know a lot of this is detail and who cares about detail? Well those people who actually have to do the job care. And the people who expect to find cheap and plentiful food will care when stuff they used to buy disappears and what they can get costs more. We've had repeated waves of this, the new wave starts on Thursday.
So industry has been lazy and hasn’t bothered? Hopefully the 4% that did their job steal market share.
I’ve personally seen a number of businesses take the approach to staffing, that they pay minimum wage, that the staff should take minimum wage and that if they can’t get the staff for minimum wage, then government should find some people for them who are ok with minimum wage.
Morning all! The NI fandango is nearly over and the DUP morons are going to accept they lost the election. Supposedly their big objection was the border. So lets look at the latest fun at the GB border.
On Thursday the new Target Operating Model comes into effect. Almost all meat and dairy products will have to have swathes of new paperwork including vet certificates from the exporting country. We are not ready, so customs will allow in loads without the correct paperwork for 3 months. Last week saw a DEFRA online meeting with 800 importers on it. Just 4% said they were ready.
Supposedly we're phasing the rollout of TOM. Paperwork which we won't check from 1st February. And then paperwork and physical checks from 1st May. But the countries we export from are ready. A few examples: France - export loads have to be held for 48 hours for inspection. Spain - only a small number of facilities will have a vet who can certify your meat or dairy. If your product isn't produced there, they won't let you export it. UK - 24 hours notice needed for an import load.
If your food is fresh, or if shelf life is important (as UK supermarkets require at least 75% of manufactured life), you are fucked under TOM.
The industry is warning of exciting months ahead with big price rises and product withdrawals. Big client already has a couple of key lines which they simply cannot import to the UK any more - commercially not viable on the new rules.
For those of us who believe we should be self-sufficient in food (not import free, just self-sufficient) that sounds like a healthy set of incentives, albeit a massive implementation risk that all contented should have managed better over the last eight years.
"Farm or starve" isn't a plan, it's a plot point in "Threads"
Obviously you’re one of those who thinks it’s fine to rely on imports to feed the population (not for variety but in order to have enough calories). I have never accepted that, and I think it’s idiotic. Really not hard to avoid either, with a bit of investment in domestic supply.
The key word there is "investment". This government have replaced the lots of money from CAP with little money post Brexit. So farming has less money than ever - how can we invest?
We have been reliant on a proportion of imports since forever, and have made progress making ourselves more reliant. We could choose not to import certain things. Chicken as an example. First we would need to Eat Less Chicken. Second, we need to invest heavily in chicken farms so that we can switch off Brazilian and Thai chicken imports. Third we need to accept that we will pay a lot more for the chicken we still eat. Fourth we eat a lot less eggs and things with eggs in them.
I know that some of the wilder Brexit vox poppers said they'd rather eat grass than stay in the EU, but I doubt "pay less for more" was their expected outcome.
The experience so far of Brexit related drama is various industries and politicians crying wolf, and the wolf not appearing. Maybe this time will be different but I doubt it. Probably everything will be fine. The industry bodies wouldn’t be doing their job if they didn’t squeal a bit.
If you want to suggest fixes for some of the detailed examples I'm sure people will listen. This isn't "squeal a bit". This is asking how the fuck the day job is supposed to happen on Thursday.
An example. The Netherlands cannot import meat to the UK on Thursday. We may choose to waive the rules, but the member states cannot (bound by treaty).
"So what" you say. Well there is quite a lot of dutch pork used in the UK foodchain, mostly in manufacturing. Most of the industry wasn't aware just how bad this is (just 4% of 800 firms on the DEFRA call last week) and "we can't import" is such an outlandish proposition that its only as it slams you in the face it becomes apparent.
If this doesn't get resolved then alternatives will be procured. But higher cost, so the price of the end product goes up, as everything will do to soak up the vast cost of the new border model.
I know a lot of this is detail and who cares about detail? Well those people who actually have to do the job care. And the people who expect to find cheap and plentiful food will care when stuff they used to buy disappears and what they can get costs more. We've had repeated waves of this, the new wave starts on Thursday.
So industry has been lazy and hasn’t bothered? Hopefully the 4% that did their job steal market share.
No, 96% on the call - my big client included - haven't been able to get ready as the thing they are getting ready for doesn't work. Which is why customs are now saying they will wave duff paperwork through for 3 months. But unless Barclay does something about the lengthy snag list highlighted on the letter, things won't be ready for the end of April either.
As for "steal market share" I have one simple question - do you know how anything works?
Lets take dutch pork, bought for a ready meal manufacturer. They cannot just switch supply to someone else, even if there is other supply available. They have to have ensured that the factory and abattoir and supply chain of the alternative supplier is clean and certified. Which means a visit. They have to get approval from whichever company (e.g. Tesco) that meat is being supplied to under their name. Which means another visit. And paperwork.
The food industry is not just an open marketplace where traders stand there in white coats bidding on joints. That happens - for direct supply to a restaurant. But if you need 250 tons a week? No.
Is there a priority application system for companies that donate to the Conservative Party? Can we expect less Good Brie and more Michelle Mone’s turnips in our shops?
Morning all! I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!
Well if the local Conservative Association provides all the proxy voters, we know which way they will be voting.
I read years ago that this was a feature of the 1992 election. That of course may be an urban myth because I can't find reference to it on t'internet.
I wonder if the polling organisations will look into this post election, when they scratch their heads and ponder, "how did we get the election so badly wrong?"
When I was once canvassing for a by-election up north, a care home nurse offered to cast all the votes of dementia residents for us. I declined, but a few weeks later there was a scandal when it was alleged that the same offer had been made to a canvasser for another party, who had (allegedly) accepted. I imagine that there is quite a bit of such skulldggery at the edges of politics, with luck not enough to change anything.
My father used to live in a retirement complex. The warden only allowed the Conservative candidate in to canvass the residents as the other candidates “would upset the residents “. (However, my father let me in, and I happened to have a pile of leaflets in my hand …..)
I'm late to the party here so apologies if this point's already been made but the Deep State, doesn't really exist in the proactive sense being deployed here (though it can be a blocking blob *in* government). There is no deep conspiracy to keep Trump out and even if there were, it would be hard to enact and would almost certainly leak as it'd need too many people to act illegally. Just because Trump believes something exists, it doesn't mean it does.
It's possible that Trump could be banned from the ballot under the 14th Amendment. There is certainly an arguable case - though I don't expect it to carry; the temptation will always be to Let the People Have Their Say.
In terms of the betting, the real question is how likely is it that Trump is stopped by (1) legalities, (2) health, (3) GOP rivals, and for (4) the Democrat candidate. These can be considered independent events, although there is obviously overlap (we just have to compartmentalise the risks where those overlaps exist).
Personally, I think 45% is a pretty decent estimate of Trump's chances. I don't expect much to come of the court cases but there's a chance it will; health is always a risk with an obese, stressed late-septugenarian but the clock's ticking on that; Haley will not defeat him in the absence of (1) or (2) above, so risk (3) is effectively zero; and he has the edge on Biden, both in campaigning and the tilt of the Electoral College playing field - though Biden may make some of that back: incumbent presidents often do once they start hitting the stump themselves.
If Trump *does* fall, the value is not in laying him but in picking his replacement, which won't necessarily be Haley, depending on the circumstances. If he's 14th-out, he can probably still arrange to dominate the GOP convention and install a proxy.
The best suggestion I've come across is that he should bomb the Iranian drone factory.
200km inland in the heart of the Isfahan so a hard target...
Unless they do a hit-and-hope TLAM op it would involve getting air supremacy over half of Iran.
I don't think Biden, or the two big lads in white tunics who lift him in and out the bath, wants to start a war in the Gulf, close the Madiq Hormuz and trigger a global depression in an election year.
However, he is surrounded by war-mongering maniacs so it's possible, I guess.
Comments
As the poster's choice was Stay in London with the wife in a small one bed, or go to a much bigger flat in Wales with its own in-built sauna, roof terrace, and gym, he went for the big place, for lockdown. As you would
That's what I heard, anyroad
I would not blame anyone for not voting and buying into the whole farce. Participatory democracy is merely ticking a box once every few years to enable the politicians to carry on as they like.
They remind me, oddly, of preppers. The psychology is very similar
See for example every single “out of town” shopping scheme in Bishop Auckland
Funny you mentioned out of town shopping in Bishop, I saw this report a couple of days ago for an "eagerly anticipated" development.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/24077904.retailers-confirmed-new-bishop-auckland-retail-park/
https://www.theguardian.com/profile/deepti-gurdasani
https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit
I think that's it Foxy. They had BJ do the marketing, then failed to get a competent administrator in, and this is now the whirlwind.
Trying not to believe in Government when it was very necessary probably does not help.
And now they are likely to have plenty of time to reflect whilst they are in the dustbin of history.
Our elder son emigrated to New Zealand (now lives in Canada) in 2003 and is 57
He will have no interest in voting here
Is that how it’s supposed to work?
What happens when my son replies to say ‘thanks, please vote Labour?’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/30/uk-perceived-as-more-corrupt-lowest-score-global-index-transparency-international
This matters to a lot of erstwhile Conservative voters, and it just underlines the "country is going to the dogs" rejection of the Tories.
People may not be in love with Labour, but they really, really hate the Tories.
Much more fun to have the French approach of overseas constituencies. Imagine if parliament had a France and Spain seat, an ANZ seat, a US seat etc.
Sridhar was obsessive about a Zero Covid environment and played a political as well. She was often used as a stick to beat the govt with as was the useless independent Sage. Some of whom still bang on about masks and Covid.
Independent Sage being set up, because the govt Sage apparently was controlled by Dominic Cummings or some other such bollocks, by "the citizens" a group linked to comnpsiracy theorist journalist Carol Cadwalladr.
These people need to realise their 15 minutes of fame is over, it has gone, it is not coming back. They were useful to the media to support their agenda at the time. They have no use now.
Edit - I had forgotten that one of the hilarious headlines is that there are supposedly 2m fewer job than there would have been if we stayed in. There’s only 1.5m job seekers, and immigration has gone up if anything…..
I find it very troubling.
As for "steal market share" I have one simple question - do you know how anything works?
Lets take dutch pork, bought for a ready meal manufacturer. They cannot just switch supply to someone else, even if there is other supply available. They have to have ensured that the factory and abattoir and supply chain of the alternative supplier is clean and certified. Which means a visit. They have to get approval from whichever company (e.g. Tesco) that meat is being supplied to under their name. Which means another visit. And paperwork.
The food industry is not just an open marketplace where traders stand there in white coats bidding on joints. That happens - for direct supply to a restaurant. But if you need 250 tons a week? No.
It would be an interesting exercise to have half a dozen seats representing Brits abroad, as the French do, and who likely care more about foreign policy than NHS spending, for example.
I’m in two minds about the change, I don’t particularly like changes to the voting system that can be portrayed as being for political advantage, but I will say that one of the lovely things about living in Expatsville, are the reports of queues that form outside one country’s embassy almost every week, indicating that it’s that country’s turn to vote.
She is raising more money than Trump! That is amazing and must infuriate Trump. The money seems to be coming from corporations who would love a Republican but don't want Trump.
So, Trump has been viciously attacking Haley and has threatened to exclude anyone from his campaign who supports Haley. However, one way for him to get hold of the money Haley has raised is to make her his VP pick.
'Birdbrain' for Vice President, anyone?
I have not been tracking particularly, but are lists from "Election Polling" useful?
I love that Mansfield is 200th. Imagine suggesting that 20 years ago.
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
BUT TODAY I AM ALLOWED TO DRINK
hahahah
The government think there are now 3 million eligible.
There is alot of debt out there. lenders will struggle to get their cash back. This may end up being a lesson for people investing in China as to the risks.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/why-china-s-great-property-bust-threatens-to-backfire-on-the-west/ar-BB1hpexT?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=1fcc853bdead4ed794f57e7037525ba2&ei=15
Tomorrow another dry day. And so it goes
Getting an AWFUL lot of work done, tho
https://www.transparency.org.uk/
They’ve allowed tens of millions of flats to be built in new cities and on the outskirts of existing cities, but there’s no-one to live in them, many remain unsold and many more are being handed back to lenders by the buyers.
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-empty-homes-real-estate-evergrande-housing-market-problem-2021-10?international=true&r=US&IR=T Gives an estimate of 65m empty dwellings in China, and that was two years ago. The bubble has got worse since then, and what we’re seeing now is the spectacular bursting of it. It could be the trigger of something much bigger globally, as was the US housing market going bust a decade and a half ago.
He's paid roughly double what I earn and my mortgage is about £830 per month (thanks 10 year fix at 3.45%!).
If my mortgage doubled, but my salary did so to, I reckon I'd still be okay. Sure, the tax system means I'd probably wouldn't double my net, but I'd still manage.
Might not be able to shop at Waitrose anymore, and have to cut back his six holidays to just two, but there is no reason you can't manage on £118k gross a year.
Evergrande has been on the brink for a while. Let's hope the lenders have had time to prepare for this as it cannot be a shock. Hopefully this won't lead to a global shock like the US housing market crash. I think it could lead to fewer investments in China as a consequence. Especially if investors find it hard to get anything back.
Possible civil unrest too ?
"Imran Khan: Pakistan former PM jailed in state secrets case as election looms - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68138591
Random off-the-wall thinking moment, why don’t Western countries club together to buy a city in China, and use it to house all of their illegal immigrants? Run it as one big free zone under an agreed Western legal framework.
In further 'surprising' news Kemi 'Get Behind Rishi' Badenoch together with "Michael Gove is a member of 'The Evil Plotters' whatsapp group.....
.Well you could have knocked me down with a feather!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/29/kemi-badenoch-member-evil-plotters-tory-whatsapp-group
SKS stance on Gaza is not harming labour.
Before someone says what about resident citizens who don't pay that much, nearly everyone is paying more through VAT, council tax and other taxes, even if not on income tax.
Biden’s team is blaming Iran for American deaths. How will the US respond?
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/29/biden-jordan-middle-east-campaign-00138458
& I guess that's how SKS wants it.
If the money invested is now lost it will only be the 'little people' who lose out.
As discussed on the last thread we don’t like our politicians much but we should be grateful that we don’t have this sort of nonsense. America needs to be careful about the lawfare path it is going down, whatever the provocation.
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2022/jul/20/empty-promise-the-fantasy-city-within-a-city-that-turned-into-a-ghost-town
Although, in fairness, Canary Wharf looked a bit like that in 1990, too.
But https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023 does work for the latest.
So thanks
Must be losing my transparency-international-fu.
Thanks.
They'll probably do a reverse Pol Pot and bring everybody from the country into the cities. And destroy agriculture in the process.
https://twitter.com/WorldBollard/status/1751345915376377934
Denial is not just a river in Egypt.
NEW: Headline Voting Intention January (changes from December 2023)
Labour 49% (+8 pts),
Conservatives 27% (+3),
Liberal Democrats 7% (-6),
Greens 7% (-2),
Reform UK 4% (-3),
Others 5% (-1).
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 17-23 January 2024
Source:
https://x.com/ipsosuk/status/1752255588015235549?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Bit of an odd one compared to most. Very swingy.
The Ed Davey Post Office effect?
Reform on a third of their vote elsewhere
It's possible that Trump could be banned from the ballot under the 14th Amendment. There is certainly an arguable case - though I don't expect it to carry; the temptation will always be to Let the People Have Their Say.
In terms of the betting, the real question is how likely is it that Trump is stopped by (1) legalities, (2) health, (3) GOP rivals, and for (4) the Democrat candidate. These can be considered independent events, although there is obviously overlap (we just have to compartmentalise the risks where those overlaps exist).
Personally, I think 45% is a pretty decent estimate of Trump's chances. I don't expect much to come of the court cases but there's a chance it will; health is always a risk with an obese, stressed late-septugenarian but the clock's ticking on that; Haley will not defeat him in the absence of (1) or (2) above, so risk (3) is effectively zero; and he has the edge on Biden, both in campaigning and the tilt of the Electoral College playing field - though Biden may make some of that back: incumbent presidents often do once they start hitting the stump themselves.
If Trump *does* fall, the value is not in laying him but in picking his replacement, which won't necessarily be Haley, depending on the circumstances. If he's 14th-out, he can probably still arrange to dominate the GOP convention and install a proxy.
Unless they do a hit-and-hope TLAM op it would involve getting air supremacy over half of Iran.
I don't think Biden, or the two big lads in white tunics who lift him in and out the bath, wants to start a war in the Gulf, close the Madiq Hormuz and trigger a global depression in an election year.
However, he is surrounded by war-mongering maniacs so it's possible, I guess.