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Punters largely staying with Trump in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709

    Morning all!
    I read the piece about Conservatives using the overseas vote with interest. Why are they assuming that all these votes will be Conservative? As I posted the other day, one of my sons fall into this category, and will certainly not do so!

    Right but Labour will be too dozy to get him signed up.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,087

    It's a remarkable analysis.

    I won't vote Labour because they "might" be a bit rubbish, but I will vote Tory despite a cast iron, copper bottomed guarantee that they will be very rubbish.

    Better the Devil you know!
    Have I mentioned anywhere who I will vote for.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,994
    edited January 2024

    The irony of that particular "safehouse" was it wasn't to be found in " a remote part of Wales" but three miles from Cardiff City Centre.

    I think that poster mistook COVID19 for a London-centric zombie apocalypse.
    No, I think that poster went to an award-winning luxury Welsh flat with his then wife, a flat which was loaned to him because he'd forewarned a multi-millionaire businessman about Covid. That warning saved the biz guy tons of cash, so as a mark of gratitude he offered the flat to the poster for the duration

    As the poster's choice was Stay in London with the wife in a small one bed, or go to a much bigger flat in Wales with its own in-built sauna, roof terrace, and gym, he went for the big place, for lockdown. As you would

    That's what I heard, anyroad
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,494
    TOPPING said:

    Is that you, @148grss?
    Final straw for me was the new council in Durham. No different to the last one and all the promises made by coalition members prior to the vote came to nothing.

    I would not blame anyone for not voting and buying into the whole farce. Participatory democracy is merely ticking a box once every few years to enable the politicians to carry on as they like.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,239
    TOPPING said:

    Have I mentioned anywhere who I will vote for.
    I'm calling it now. Any vote that keeps the pinkos out.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,494

    Unlike voting Conservative which is a catastrophe we have noticed.

    Fortunately for the Tories they have become self sufficient in harvesting enough votes imported from overseas to see them through next winter and beyond.
    The other parties will be doing the same in trying to cultivate the voters of expats.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,994
    TOPPING said:

    More worrying is that all the comments are along the lines of that's great where can I get one.
    There is a worldwide community of People Driven Mad by Covid, who are now wearing spacesuits or living in hyperbaric chambers to avoid the flu

    They remind me, oddly, of preppers. The psychology is very similar
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,462

    It's a remarkable analysis.

    I won't vote Labour because they "might" be a bit rubbish, but I will vote Tory despite a cast iron, copper bottomed guarantee that they will be very rubbish.

    Better the Devil you know!
    It's common: the political equivalent of steering clear of vapes because their safety record is unproven, and sticking with good old cigarettes instead.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,730
    Taz said:

    Final straw for me was the new council in Durham. No different to the last one and all the promises made by coalition members prior to the vote came to nothing.

    I would not blame anyone for not voting and buying into the whole farce. Participatory democracy is merely ticking a box once every few years to enable the politicians to carry on as they like.
    Got to say that Durham council has a nasty habit of the councillors outside your area making sure the items you don’t like get approved.

    See for example every single “out of town” shopping scheme in Bishop Auckland
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,087

    I'm calling it now. Any vote that keeps the pinkos out.
    Is generally a good rule of thumb.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,239
    Leon said:

    No, I think that poster went to an award-winning luxury Welsh flat with his then wife, a flat which was loaned to him because he'd forewarned a multi-millionaire businessman about Covid. That warning saved the biz guy tons of cash, so as a mark of gratitude he offered the flat to the poster for the duration

    As the poster's choice was Stay in London with the wife in a small one bed, or go to a much bigger flat in Wales with its own in-built sauna, roof terrace, and gym, he went for the big place, for lockdown. As you would

    That's what I heard, anyroad
    Personally I suspect the zombie apocalypse misunderstanding makes more sense. You know what he's like!
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,494
    edited January 2024
    Or the cancellation of the free parking after 2PM in other towns.

    Funny you mentioned out of town shopping in Bishop, I saw this report a couple of days ago for an "eagerly anticipated" development.

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/24077904.retailers-confirmed-new-bishop-auckland-retail-park/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,994

    ‘We all’: who the fck is Dr Deepti Gurdasani?
    For about six months she was nearly as high profile as Devi Sridhar, the SNP's Tantric Lockdown Guru



    https://www.theguardian.com/profile/deepti-gurdasani
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,361

    If you want to suggest fixes for some of the detailed examples I'm sure people will listen. This isn't "squeal a bit". This is asking how the fuck the day job is supposed to happen on Thursday.

    An example. The Netherlands cannot import meat to the UK on Thursday. We may choose to waive the rules, but the member states cannot (bound by treaty).

    "So what" you say. Well there is quite a lot of dutch pork used in the UK foodchain, mostly in manufacturing. Most of the industry wasn't aware just how bad this is (just 4% of 800 firms on the DEFRA call last week) and "we can't import" is such an outlandish proposition that its only as it slams you in the face it becomes apparent.

    If this doesn't get resolved then alternatives will be procured. But higher cost, so the price of the end product goes up, as everything will do to soak up the vast cost of the new border model.

    I know a lot of this is detail and who cares about detail? Well those people who actually have to do the job care. And the people who expect to find cheap and plentiful food will care when stuff they used to buy disappears and what they can get costs more. We've had repeated waves of this, the new wave starts on Thursday.
    So industry has been lazy and hasn’t bothered? Hopefully the 4% that did their job steal market share.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    edited January 2024

    If you want to suggest fixes for some of the detailed examples I'm sure people will listen. This isn't "squeal a bit". This is asking how the fuck the day job is supposed to happen on Thursday.

    An example. The Netherlands cannot import meat to the UK on Thursday. We may choose to waive the rules, but the member states cannot (bound by treaty).

    "So what" you say. Well there is quite a lot of dutch pork used in the UK foodchain, mostly in manufacturing. Most of the industry wasn't aware just how bad this is (just 4% of 800 firms on the DEFRA call last week) and "we can't import" is such an outlandish proposition that its only as it slams you in the face it becomes apparent.

    If this doesn't get resolved then alternatives will be procured. But higher cost, so the price of the end product goes up, as everything will do to soak up the vast cost of the new border model.

    I know a lot of this is detail and who cares about detail? Well those people who actually have to do the job care. And the people who expect to find cheap and plentiful food will care when stuff they used to buy disappears and what they can get costs more. We've had repeated waves of this, the new wave starts on Thursday.
    A recent 'Cost of brexit' in case there aren't enough reasons to get rid of this Tory/UKIP government

    https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit

  • FF43 said:

    If the Lib Dems win most of these seats, they will win others not on this list. MRP polls are rough probabilities at the seat level. You don't expect to get every specific seat correct, but hope the ones where you have allocated the wrong party to even out.
    Yes, personally, I would rank Harrogate as a better LD prospect than at least ten seats on this list, and Caithness etc. as a better prospect than twenty of them.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,244
    Foxy said:

    Surely Brazilian and Thai chicken farmers are outside the changes with the EU? Or are they being imported via the EU?

    It really astonishes me how poorly prepared our government is to implement Brexit, even 4 or 8 years (depending on how you count) from when it happened. What bit about "Brexit means Brexit" didn't they understand?
    Good morning all.

    I think that's it Foxy. They had BJ do the marketing, then failed to get a competent administrator in, and this is now the whirlwind.

    Trying not to believe in Government when it was very necessary probably does not help.

    And now they are likely to have plenty of time to reflect whilst they are in the dustbin of history.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,239
    Taz said:

    The other parties will be doing the same in trying to cultivate the voters of expats.

    It's undemocratic. The other parties should boycott!
  • TimS said:

    I would assume the average age of people who’ve been outside the UK for over 15 years must be well into the 60s, possibly the 70s. So I’m pretty sure the vote share will be better than their domestic 20-30%.
    Good morning

    Our elder son emigrated to New Zealand (now lives in Canada) in 2003 and is 57

    He will have no interest in voting here
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,840

    Well if the local Conservative Association provides all the proxy voters, we know which way they will be voting.

    I read years ago that this was a feature of the 1992 election. That of course may be an urban myth because I can't find reference to it on t'internet.

    I wonder if the polling organisations will look into this post election, when they scratch their heads and ponder, "how did we get the election so badly wrong?"
    So my son, once registered an overseas voter, will get a letter from ‘someone’ saying that they are willing to cast his vote for him as a proxy?
    Is that how it’s supposed to work?
    What happens when my son replies to say ‘thanks, please vote Labour?’
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    So my son, once registered an overseas voter, will get a letter from ‘someone’ saying that they are willing to cast his vote for him as a proxy?
    Is that how it’s supposed to work?
    What happens when my son replies to say ‘thanks, please vote Labour?’
    If you are registered as an overseas voter, you get sent a ballot paper.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,142
    The UK falls to its lowest level ever on the Corruption perceptions index.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/30/uk-perceived-as-more-corrupt-lowest-score-global-index-transparency-international

    This matters to a lot of erstwhile Conservative voters, and it just underlines the "country is going to the dogs" rejection of the Tories.

    People may not be in love with Labour, but they really, really hate the Tories.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,757
    Taz said:

    Or the cancellation of the free parking after 2PM in other towns.

    Funny you mentioned out of town shopping in Bishop, I saw this report a couple of days ago for an "eagerly anticipated" development.

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/24077904.retailers-confirmed-new-bishop-auckland-retail-park/

    While ever there is a home bargains ....
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,462

    Good morning

    Our elder son emigrated to New Zealand (now lives in Canada) in 2003 and is 57

    He will have no interest in voting here
    That’ll be the interesting question: turnout. Sadly I fear we’ll never get good stats on who voted and for what.

    Much more fun to have the French approach of overseas constituencies. Imagine if parliament had a France and Spain seat, an ANZ seat, a US seat etc.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,494
    edited January 2024
    Leon said:

    For about six months she was nearly as high profile as Devi Sridhar, the SNP's Tantric Lockdown Guru



    https://www.theguardian.com/profile/deepti-gurdasani
    Gurdasani flounced off to Western Australia and then whined that people weren't wearing masks on the buses over there.

    Sridhar was obsessive about a Zero Covid environment and played a political as well. She was often used as a stick to beat the govt with as was the useless independent Sage. Some of whom still bang on about masks and Covid.

    Independent Sage being set up, because the govt Sage apparently was controlled by Dominic Cummings or some other such bollocks, by "the citizens" a group linked to comnpsiracy theorist journalist Carol Cadwalladr.

    These people need to realise their 15 minutes of fame is over, it has gone, it is not coming back. They were useful to the media to support their agenda at the time. They have no use now.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,840
    eristdoof said:

    If you are registered as an overseas voter, you get sent a ballot paper.
    That’s what I thought. Exactly the same as I, as a registered postal voter, do. So what’s all this about proxies?
  • Leon said:

    For about six months she was nearly as high profile as Devi Sridhar, the SNP's Tantric Lockdown Guru



    https://www.theguardian.com/profile/deepti-gurdasani
    The ‘we’ is presumably all those PB usernames that share the same granular obsession with LAB LEAKS, XL BULLY, UFOs, WOKE etc
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,361
    edited January 2024
    Roger said:

    A recent 'Cost of brexit' in case there aren't enough reasons to get rid of this Tory/UKIP government

    https://www.london.gov.uk/new-report-reveals-uk-economy-almost-ps140billion-smaller-because-brexit

    We are, of course, probably a bit poorer than we would have been, but that report was comically bad. Of course the real answer is that it’s impossible to know because things like Covid has much bigger impacts and have driven very different behaviours that you can’t really project into any counter-factual.

    Edit - I had forgotten that one of the hilarious headlines is that there are supposedly 2m fewer job than there would have been if we stayed in. There’s only 1.5m job seekers, and immigration has gone up if anything…..
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,494

    While ever there is a home bargains ....
    And a "Range". I went to the one at the Metro centre. It's ace. I realise this site is predominantly occupied by posh and well off people who wouldn't be seen dead in such a low brow place but I got some great jars for my home pickling and sauce making.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,462
    Leon said:

    For about six months she was nearly as high profile as Devi Sridhar, the SNP's Tantric Lockdown Guru



    https://www.theguardian.com/profile/deepti-gurdasani
    Deepti has continued to go further into zero Covid whackiness - she makes Sridhar seem like a sensible centrist.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,239

    So my son, once registered an overseas voter, will get a letter from ‘someone’ saying that they are willing to cast his vote for him as a proxy?
    Is that how it’s supposed to work?
    What happens when my son replies to say ‘thanks, please vote Labour?’
    He votes Conservative, by proxy?

    I find it very troubling.
  • That’s what I thought. Exactly the same as I, as a registered postal voter, do. So what’s all this about proxies?
    Don't worry about it. The Tories may have cunningly increased the number of overseas voters by factor of five, but Royal Mail have kindly reduced their ability to deliver the forms by a similar factor.
  • biggles said:

    So industry has been lazy and hasn’t bothered? Hopefully the 4% that did their job steal market share.
    No, 96% on the call - my big client included - haven't been able to get ready as the thing they are getting ready for doesn't work. Which is why customs are now saying they will wave duff paperwork through for 3 months. But unless Barclay does something about the lengthy snag list highlighted on the letter, things won't be ready for the end of April either.

    As for "steal market share" I have one simple question - do you know how anything works?

    Lets take dutch pork, bought for a ready meal manufacturer. They cannot just switch supply to someone else, even if there is other supply available. They have to have ensured that the factory and abattoir and supply chain of the alternative supplier is clean and certified. Which means a visit. They have to get approval from whichever company (e.g. Tesco) that meat is being supplied to under their name. Which means another visit. And paperwork.

    The food industry is not just an open marketplace where traders stand there in white coats bidding on joints. That happens - for direct supply to a restaurant. But if you need 250 tons a week? No.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,994

    The ‘we’ is presumably all those PB usernames that share the same granular obsession with LAB LEAKS, XL BULLY, UFOs, WOKE etc
    Given that you have one solitary, singular and arse-achingly tedious obsession - SCOTTISH INDY!!! - and you find it emotionally hard to talk about anything else - this accusation seems quite ill-advised
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,021

    Yes, personally, I would rank Harrogate as a better LD prospect than at least ten seats on this list, and Caithness etc. as a better prospect than twenty of them.
    Mole Valley not on the list either.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,994
    edited January 2024
    Taz said:

    Gurdasani flounced off to Western Australia and then whined that people weren't wearing masks on the buses over there.

    Sridhar was obsessive about a Zero Covid environment and played a political as well. She was often used as a stick to beat the govt with as was the useless independent Sage. Some of whom still bang on about masks and Covid.

    Independent Sage being set up, because the govt Sage apparently was controlled by Dominic Cummings or some other such bollocks, by "the citizens" a group linked to comnpsiracy theorist journalist Carol Cadwalladr.

    These people need to realise their 15 minutes of fame is over, it has gone, it is not coming back. They were useful to the media to support their agenda at the time. They have no use now.
    Her TwiX feed gives the impression of someone who has basically lost her mind. But then again, TwiX does that to 97% of users, so maybe she's just cranky online
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,494
    Leon said:

    Given that you have one solitary, singular and arse-achingly tedious obsession - SCOTTISH INDY!!! - and you find it emotionally hard to talk about anything else - this accusation seems quite ill-advised
    TUD is also obsessive on the Trans issue as well.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,239
    Cicero said:

    The UK falls to its lowest level ever on the Corruption perceptions index.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/30/uk-perceived-as-more-corrupt-lowest-score-global-index-transparency-international

    This matters to a lot of erstwhile Conservative voters, and it just underlines the "country is going to the dogs" rejection of the Tories.

    People may not be in love with Labour, but they really, really hate the Tories.

    Can I be your vote proxy? You want to vote to get the Conservatives out? I'll take that as a vote for the Conservatives.
  • I suggest long term overseas citizens should be eligible to vote as long as they pay a UK non resident tax of 5% on global income. No representation without taxation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,353
    TimS said:

    That’ll be the interesting question: turnout. Sadly I fear we’ll never get good stats on who voted and for what.

    Much more fun to have the French approach of overseas constituencies. Imagine if parliament had a France and Spain seat, an ANZ seat, a US seat etc.
    In a Parliamentary election, the overseas residents are registered in the UK constituency where they were last seen.

    It would be an interesting exercise to have half a dozen seats representing Brits abroad, as the French do, and who likely care more about foreign policy than NHS spending, for example.

    I’m in two minds about the change, I don’t particularly like changes to the voting system that can be portrayed as being for political advantage, but I will say that one of the lovely things about living in Expatsville, are the reports of queues that form outside one country’s embassy almost every week, indicating that it’s that country’s turn to vote.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,935

    No hysteria my end.

    And it is already moving the polls. Otherwise Haley wouldn't still be in the race, raising millions. Watch the vox pops. Those people voting Haley are going to vote Biden, if the alternative is Trump.
    I've just seen an alternative explanation of why Haley didn't drop out of what seems to be an almost unwinnable race with Trump.
    She is raising more money than Trump! That is amazing and must infuriate Trump. The money seems to be coming from corporations who would love a Republican but don't want Trump.
    So, Trump has been viciously attacking Haley and has threatened to exclude anyone from his campaign who supports Haley. However, one way for him to get hold of the money Haley has raised is to make her his VP pick.
    'Birdbrain' for Vice President, anyone?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,244
    On target seats list, I just ran across a Labour Top List.

    I have not been tracking particularly, but are lists from "Election Polling" useful?

    I love that Mansfield is 200th. Imagine suggesting that 20 years ago.

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
  • Sandpit said:

    In a Parliamentary election, the overseas residents are registered in the UK constituency where they were last seen.

    It would be an interesting exercise to have half a dozen seats representing Brits abroad, as the French do, and who likely care more about foreign policy than NHS spending, for example.

    I’m in two minds about the change, I don’t particularly like changes to the voting system that can be portrayed as being for political advantage, but I will say that one of the lovely things about living in Expatsville, are the reports of queues that form outside one country’s embassy almost every week, indicating that it’s that country’s turn to vote.
    Labour can use that argument when it comes to voting for under 16s. Yes its a shame that we are doing this to skew the results of the next election, but isn't it so lovely to see all the youngsters getting more engaged with politics.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,724

    So my son, once registered an overseas voter, will get a letter from ‘someone’ saying that they are willing to cast his vote for him as a proxy?
    Is that how it’s supposed to work?
    What happens when my son replies to say ‘thanks, please vote Labour?’
    They say 'yes, of course that's all right' and then tick the Tory box when the time comes. That's the way it is supposed to work.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,994
    Bored again

    BUT TODAY I AM ALLOWED TO DRINK

    hahahah
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,745
    Leon said:

    Bored again

    BUT TODAY I AM ALLOWED TO DRINK

    hahahah

    But what if you choose not to ?
  • Amazingly there were just 1,237 overseas electors on the Uk register in 1990, and still only 14,890 in 2009.

    The government think there are now 3 million eligible.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,724
    viewcode said:

    Yes, but your brother lives off beans and chips. 😃
    Rather more to the point, he lives in the EU, if he is in NI. We in GB don't.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587

    Well if the local Conservative Association provides all the proxy voters, we know which way they will be voting.

    I read years ago that this was a feature of the 1992 election. That of course may be an urban myth because I can't find reference to it on t'internet.

    I wonder if the polling organisations will look into this post election, when they scratch their heads and ponder, "how did we get the election so badly wrong?"
    When I was once canvassing for a by-election up north, a care home nurse offered to cast all the votes of dementia residents for us. I declined, but a few weeks later there was a scandal when it was alleged that the same offer had been made to a canvasser for another party, who had (allegedly) accepted. I imagine that there is quite a bit of such skulldggery at the edges of politics, with luck not enough to change anything.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,244
    Cicero said:

    The UK falls to its lowest level ever on the Corruption perceptions index.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/30/uk-perceived-as-more-corrupt-lowest-score-global-index-transparency-international

    This matters to a lot of erstwhile Conservative voters, and it just underlines the "country is going to the dogs" rejection of the Tories.

    People may not be in love with Labour, but they really, really hate the Tories.

    I can well believe that, but my immediate question - on the integrity of journalism - is "where is the link to the original report in that article?".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,724
    Taz said:

    TUD is also obsessive on the Trans issue as well.
    But he comments on a wide range of matters. Are you suire you two aren't the ones with monocular eyepieces?
  • MattW said:

    On target seats list, I just ran across a Labour Top List.

    I have not been tracking particularly, but are lists from "Election Polling" useful?

    I love that Mansfield is 200th. Imagine suggesting that 20 years ago.

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour

    Old boundaries so not very useful.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,494
    China property bust threatens to backfire on the west

    There is alot of debt out there. lenders will struggle to get their cash back. This may end up being a lesson for people investing in China as to the risks.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/why-china-s-great-property-bust-threatens-to-backfire-on-the-west/ar-BB1hpexT?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=1fcc853bdead4ed794f57e7037525ba2&ei=15
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Yes, personally, I would rank Harrogate as a better LD prospect than at least ten seats on this list, and Caithness etc. as a better prospect than twenty of them.
    I've just read the Peter Kellner article. The difference between his purity and reality options will account for a large part of the "Roll Back" effect that is often talked about here. The Roll Back is in a large part due to previous government voters being pissed off with the government, and say to pollsters they won't vote but when it comes to voting day many will vote for the same party as last time. This is the correction being estimated for the Reality Option. The other Roll Back effect is from a genuine change in opinion. That's the different between a now-cast and a forecast, people who like the look of Labour but in the end are persuaded that Conservative is a better choice. This is not accounted for in the Reality option, but I would suggest that this government is so rudderless, that the chances they get to steer some floating voters back to them is quite small.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,994
    Nigelb said:

    But what if you choose not to ?
    I would literally expire from the tedium

    Tomorrow another dry day. And so it goes

    Getting an AWFUL lot of work done, tho
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,724
    MattW said:

    I can well believe that, but my immediate question - on the integrity of journalism - is "where is the link to the original report in that article?".
    Bit where it says Source: Transparency International. And it's the first thing that comes up on their website.

    https://www.transparency.org.uk/
  • MattW said:

    I can well believe that, but my immediate question - on the integrity of journalism - is "where is the link to the original report in that article?".
    https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Amazingly there were just 1,237 overseas electors on the Uk register in 1990, and still only 14,890 in 2009.

    The government think there are now 3 million eligible.

    The overseas voting only started sometime after the 1987 GE, so it is not surprising that by 1990 only a few had actually registered.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,353
    edited January 2024
    Taz said:

    China property bust threatens to backfire on the west

    There is alot of debt out there. lenders will struggle to get their cash back. This may end up being a lesson for people investing in China as to the risks.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/why-china-s-great-property-bust-threatens-to-backfire-on-the-west/ar-BB1hpexT?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=1fcc853bdead4ed794f57e7037525ba2&ei=15

    The CCP has managed to totally lose control of the property market in China.

    They’ve allowed tens of millions of flats to be built in new cities and on the outskirts of existing cities, but there’s no-one to live in them, many remain unsold and many more are being handed back to lenders by the buyers.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/china-empty-homes-real-estate-evergrande-housing-market-problem-2021-10?international=true&r=US&IR=T Gives an estimate of 65m empty dwellings in China, and that was two years ago. The bubble has got worse since then, and what we’re seeing now is the spectacular bursting of it. It could be the trigger of something much bigger globally, as was the US housing market going bust a decade and a half ago.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,883
    Ghedebrav said:

    George Freeman’s resignation as science minister, because (seriously) he couldn’t afford his mortgage.

    A remarkable mix of pomposity and self-pity.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-68133873

    I saw this and just thought 'what an idiot'.
    He's paid roughly double what I earn and my mortgage is about £830 per month (thanks 10 year fix at 3.45%!).
    If my mortgage doubled, but my salary did so to, I reckon I'd still be okay. Sure, the tax system means I'd probably wouldn't double my net, but I'd still manage.
    Might not be able to shop at Waitrose anymore, and have to cut back his six holidays to just two, but there is no reason you can't manage on £118k gross a year.
  • eristdoof said:

    The overseas voting only started sometime after the 1987 GE, so it is not surprising that by 1990 only a few had actually registered.
    I wonder why it started during the term of a failed unpopular Tory goverment?
  • I saw this and just thought 'what an idiot'.
    He's paid roughly double what I earn and my mortgage is about £830 per month (thanks 10 year fix at 3.45%!).
    If my mortgage doubled, but my salary did so to, I reckon I'd still be okay. Sure, the tax system means I'd probably wouldn't double my net, but I'd still manage.
    Might not be able to shop at Waitrose anymore, and have to cut back his six holidays to just two, but there is no reason you can't manage on £118k gross a year.
    Remember to factor in the costs for your second home too!
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,494
    Sandpit said:

    The CCP has managed to totally lose control of the property market in China.

    They’ve allowed tens of millions of flats to be built in new cities and on the outskirts of existing cities, but there’s no-one to live in them, many remain unsold and many more are being handed back to lenders by the buyers.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/china-empty-homes-real-estate-evergrande-housing-market-problem-2021-10?international=true&r=US&IR=T Gives an estimate of 65m empty dwellings in China, and that was two years ago. The bubble has got worse since then, and what we’re seeing now is the spectacular bursting of it. It could be the trigger of something much bigger globally, as was the US housing market going bust a decade and a half ago.
    There are plenty of videos on youtube of these deserted, empty, towns. It is quite amszing and as the population falls there will be less and less demand for these properties.

    Evergrande has been on the brink for a while. Let's hope the lenders have had time to prepare for this as it cannot be a shock. Hopefully this won't lead to a global shock like the US housing market crash. I think it could lead to fewer investments in China as a consequence. Especially if investors find it hard to get anything back.

    Possible civil unrest too ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,458

    Power sharing is back! The DUP have a deal. We await details. Will it actually do anything to ease GB/NI trade? How much does it impact Johnson’s Brexit deal more broadly?

    But good news for Northern Ireland and the clock goes back to normal on the next Assembly election, which should now be 6 May 2027. The DUP, SF, UUP and Alliance are meeting to discuss forming the new executive.

    The next general election will be the first electoral test of these events. With most NI elections under STV, the one set of FPTP elections often see considerable negotiation and strategising over certain parties not standing in certain seats, particularly on the Unionist side.

    Quite the coup for Sunak to get Donaldson to return the DUP to powersharing with SF at Stormont. Seems ensuring no checks on goods between GB and NI building on the Windsor Framework was key
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,458
    Former Pakistani PM Imran Khan sentenced to ten years in jail for allegedly leaking state secrets
    "Imran Khan: Pakistan former PM jailed in state secrets case as election looms - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68138591
  • Leon said:

    Given that you have one solitary, singular and arse-achingly tedious obsession - SCOTTISH INDY!!! - and you find it emotionally hard to talk about anything else - this accusation seems quite ill-advised
    Lol, you and other PBers of your ilk are never done giving your irrelevant opinions on SCOTTISH INDY!!!. Admittedly it's the same low-information opinion over and over again, but still..
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Taz said:

    Yup. I am no longer voting, at all, apart from for a local independent councillor.

    Absolute waste of time. You are simply buying in to and legitimising a system where politicians do as they please and take your vote as an endorsement of their actions.
    Whilst I understand the point of view (as per yesterday's thread), the drawback is that the voting pool will more and more consist of those who are content with the current system and choices (as those who are not content withdraw from it).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,353
    edited January 2024
    Taz said:

    There are plenty of videos on youtube of these deserted, empty, towns. It is quite amszing and as the population falls there will be less and less demand for these properties.

    Evergrande has been on the brink for a while. Let's hope the lenders have had time to prepare for this as it cannot be a shock. Hopefully this won't lead to a global shock like the US housing market crash. I think it could lead to fewer investments in China as a consequence. Especially if investors find it hard to get anything back.

    Possible civil unrest too ?
    Yes, let’s hope that everyone has seen where this was all going to end up.

    Random off-the-wall thinking moment, why don’t Western countries club together to buy a city in China, and use it to house all of their illegal immigrants? Run it as one big free zone under an agreed Western legal framework.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    I suggest long term overseas citizens should be eligible to vote as long as they pay a UK non resident tax of 5% on global income. No representation without taxation.

    Many already pay UK tax. My teachers pension is fully taxed I'm the UK by payed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    edited January 2024
    Cicero said:

    The UK falls to its lowest level ever on the Corruption perceptions index.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/30/uk-perceived-as-more-corrupt-lowest-score-global-index-transparency-international

    This matters to a lot of erstwhile Conservative voters, and it just underlines the "country is going to the dogs" rejection of the Tories.

    People may not be in love with Labour, but they really, really hate the Tories.

    Interestingly the article says the UK is at no 20 "which puts it behind Uruguay and Hong Kong!". Should we find that surprising?

    In further 'surprising' news Kemi 'Get Behind Rishi' Badenoch together with "Michael Gove is a member of 'The Evil Plotters' whatsapp group.....

    .Well you could have knocked me down with a feather!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/29/kemi-badenoch-member-evil-plotters-tory-whatsapp-group
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,648
    Taz said:

    The other parties will be doing the same in trying to cultivate the voters of expats.

    Idiot emigrants should not be allowed anywhere near a vote. Pathetic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,545

    I saw this and just thought 'what an idiot'.
    He's paid roughly double what I earn and my mortgage is about £830 per month (thanks 10 year fix at 3.45%!).
    If my mortgage doubled, but my salary did so to, I reckon I'd still be okay. Sure, the tax system means I'd probably wouldn't double my net, but I'd still manage.
    Might not be able to shop at Waitrose anymore, and have to cut back his six holidays to just two, but there is no reason you can't manage on £118k gross a year.
    It's no wonder we're in trouble if ministers of the crown are so incapable of organising their finances.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,494
    Labour 22 point lead and, more significantly, polling at 49%

    SKS stance on Gaza is not harming labour.
  • felix said:

    Many already pay UK tax. My teachers pension is fully taxed I'm the UK by payed.
    Fair point, happy for that to count as an alternative for eligibility, subject to some nominal minimum, off the top of my head around £2k tax paid.

    Before someone says what about resident citizens who don't pay that much, nearly everyone is paying more through VAT, council tax and other taxes, even if not on income tax.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,494
    malcolmg said:

    Idiot emigrants should not be allowed anywhere near a vote. Pathetic.
    Don’t disagree Malc, and how many will want to vote anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,745
    The best suggestion I've come across is that he should bomb the Iranian drone factory.

    Biden’s team is blaming Iran for American deaths. How will the US respond?
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/29/biden-jordan-middle-east-campaign-00138458
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,648
    Leon said:

    I would literally expire from the tedium

    Tomorrow another dry day. And so it goes

    Getting an AWFUL lot of work done, tho
    I am doing well, into day 2 of not drinking during the week. Another few days and it will be a record.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,087
    Taz said:

    TUD is also obsessive on the Trans issue as well.
    Surely if one is obsessive on a large number of things that makes you well-rounded.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,545
    edited January 2024
    Taz said:

    Labour 22 point lead and, more significantly, polling at 49%

    SKS stance on Gaza is not harming labour.

    He sounded slightly more pro Israel than Sunak near the start of the conflict but I couldn't tell you the difference between Labour and Conservative policies on foreign affairs/defence now tbh.
    & I guess that's how SKS wants it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,244

    Old boundaries so not very useful.
    Thanks.
  • Taz said:

    China property bust threatens to backfire on the west

    There is alot of debt out there. lenders will struggle to get their cash back. This may end up being a lesson for people investing in China as to the risks.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/why-china-s-great-property-bust-threatens-to-backfire-on-the-west/ar-BB1hpexT?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=1fcc853bdead4ed794f57e7037525ba2&ei=15

    The Western bankers who did the investing will already have had their bonuses.

    If the money invested is now lost it will only be the 'little people' who lose out.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,494

    The Western bankers who did the investing will already have had their bonuses.

    If the money invested is now lost it will only be the 'little people' who lose out.
    But I think we can reassure ourselves "lessons will be learned"
  • Taz said:

    Labour 22 point lead and, more significantly, polling at 49%

    SKS stance on Gaza is not harming labour.

    It might have been a 25% lead otherwise.....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,172
    Imran Khan gets locked up in Pakistan for the election.

    As discussed on the last thread we don’t like our politicians much but we should be grateful that we don’t have this sort of nonsense. America needs to be careful about the lawfare path it is going down, whatever the provocation.
  • Taz said:

    But I think we can reassure ourselves "lessons will be learned"
    We even have one of our own in Docklands:

    https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2022/jul/20/empty-promise-the-fantasy-city-within-a-city-that-turned-into-a-ghost-town

    Although, in fairness, Canary Wharf looked a bit like that in 1990, too.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,244
    edited January 2024

    https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022
    Point of Order. That's the 2022 version which has the UK as equal 18th.

    But https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2023 does work for the latest.

    So thanks :smile: .
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,244
    Carnyx said:

    Bit where it says Source: Transparency International. And it's the first thing that comes up on their website.

    https://www.transparency.org.uk/
    That's interesting - I went looking there, but only found a press release and no link.

    Must be losing my transparency-international-fu.

    Thanks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,200
    Taz said:

    There are plenty of videos on youtube of these deserted, empty, towns. It is quite amszing and as the population falls there will be less and less demand for these properties.

    Evergrande has been on the brink for a while. Let's hope the lenders have had time to prepare for this as it cannot be a shock. Hopefully this won't lead to a global shock like the US housing market crash. I think it could lead to fewer investments in China as a consequence. Especially if investors find it hard to get anything back.

    Possible civil unrest too ?
    People really losing out are going to be Communist Party high-ups. They'll have to do something to fill them, in a country whose population is way below what they say it is anyway.

    They'll probably do a reverse Pol Pot and bring everybody from the country into the cities. And destroy agriculture in the process.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,244
    edited January 2024
    Something uplifting. Walnut bollards (or perhaps just a beautiful piece of public art).

    https://twitter.com/WorldBollard/status/1751345915376377934

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,724
    MattW said:

    Something uplifting. Walnut bollards (or perhaps just a beautiful piece of public art).

    https://twitter.com/WorldBollard/status/1751345915376377934

    I do feel sorry for the local squirrels, though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,791
    A
    biggles said:

    So industry has been lazy and hasn’t bothered? Hopefully the 4% that did their job steal market share.
    I’ve personally seen a number of businesses take the approach to staffing, that they pay minimum wage, that the staff should take minimum wage and that if they can’t get the staff for minimum wage, then government should find some people for them who are ok with minimum wage.

    Denial is not just a river in Egypt.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,353
    Carnyx said:

    I do feel sorry for the local squirrels, though.
    They’re not squirrels, they’re kangaroos!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2024
    The good news for Tories is they’re up three points in the latest poll….

    NEW: Headline Voting Intention January (changes from December 2023)

    Labour 49% (+8 pts),
    Conservatives 27% (+3),
    Liberal Democrats 7% (-6),
    Greens 7% (-2),
    Reform UK 4% (-3),
    Others 5% (-1).

    Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 17-23 January 2024
    Source:


    https://x.com/ipsosuk/status/1752255588015235549?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Bit of an odd one compared to most. Very swingy.

    The Ed Davey Post Office effect?
    Reform on a third of their vote elsewhere
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,128

    No, 96% on the call - my big client included - haven't been able to get ready as the thing they are getting ready for doesn't work. Which is why customs are now saying they will wave duff paperwork through for 3 months. But unless Barclay does something about the lengthy snag list highlighted on the letter, things won't be ready for the end of April either.

    As for "steal market share" I have one simple question - do you know how anything works?

    Lets take dutch pork, bought for a ready meal manufacturer. They cannot just switch supply to someone else, even if there is other supply available. They have to have ensured that the factory and abattoir and supply chain of the alternative supplier is clean and certified. Which means a visit. They have to get approval from whichever company (e.g. Tesco) that meat is being supplied to under their name. Which means another visit. And paperwork.

    The food industry is not just an open marketplace where traders stand there in white coats bidding on joints. That happens - for direct supply to a restaurant. But if you need 250 tons a week? No.
    Is there a priority application system for companies that donate to the Conservative Party? Can we expect less Good Brie and more Michelle Mone’s turnips in our shops?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,128

    When I was once canvassing for a by-election up north, a care home nurse offered to cast all the votes of dementia residents for us. I declined, but a few weeks later there was a scandal when it was alleged that the same offer had been made to a canvasser for another party, who had (allegedly) accepted. I imagine that there is quite a bit of such skulldggery at the edges of politics, with luck not enough to change anything.
    My father used to live in a retirement complex. The warden only allowed the Conservative candidate in to canvass the residents as the other candidates “would upset the residents “. (However, my father let me in, and I happened to have a pile of leaflets in my hand …..)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,942
    edited January 2024
    I'm late to the party here so apologies if this point's already been made but the Deep State, doesn't really exist in the proactive sense being deployed here (though it can be a blocking blob *in* government). There is no deep conspiracy to keep Trump out and even if there were, it would be hard to enact and would almost certainly leak as it'd need too many people to act illegally. Just because Trump believes something exists, it doesn't mean it does.

    It's possible that Trump could be banned from the ballot under the 14th Amendment. There is certainly an arguable case - though I don't expect it to carry; the temptation will always be to Let the People Have Their Say.

    In terms of the betting, the real question is how likely is it that Trump is stopped by (1) legalities, (2) health, (3) GOP rivals, and for (4) the Democrat candidate. These can be considered independent events, although there is obviously overlap (we just have to compartmentalise the risks where those overlaps exist).

    Personally, I think 45% is a pretty decent estimate of Trump's chances. I don't expect much to come of the court cases but there's a chance it will; health is always a risk with an obese, stressed late-septugenarian but the clock's ticking on that; Haley will not defeat him in the absence of (1) or (2) above, so risk (3) is effectively zero; and he has the edge on Biden, both in campaigning and the tilt of the Electoral College playing field - though Biden may make some of that back: incumbent presidents often do once they start hitting the stump themselves.

    If Trump *does* fall, the value is not in laying him but in picking his replacement, which won't necessarily be Haley, depending on the circumstances. If he's 14th-out, he can probably still arrange to dominate the GOP convention and install a proxy.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,128
    Leon said:

    I would literally expire from the tedium

    Tomorrow another dry day. And so it goes

    Getting an AWFUL lot of work done, tho
    As long as it’s not a lot of awful work.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,128
    malcolmg said:

    I am doing well, into day 2 of not drinking during the week. Another few days and it will be a record.
    I hope the lack of drink doesn’t make you calm and mellow!
  • isam said:

    The good news for Tories is they’re up three points in the latest poll….

    NEW: Headline Voting Intention January (changes from December 2023)

    Labour 49% (+8 pts),
    Conservatives 27% (+3),
    Liberal Democrats 7% (-6),
    Greens 7% (-2),
    Reform UK 4% (-3),
    Others 5% (-1).

    Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 17-23 January 2024
    Source:


    https://x.com/ipsosuk/status/1752255588015235549?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Bit of an odd one compared to most. Very swingy.

    The Ed Davey Post Office effect?
    Reform on a third of their vote elsewhere

    Ipsos have a strict turnout filter, so only counting 9/10 and 10/10 certain to votes, which usually explains their bounciness.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,839
    Nigelb said:

    The best suggestion I've come across is that he should bomb the Iranian drone factory.

    200km inland in the heart of the Isfahan so a hard target...

    Unless they do a hit-and-hope TLAM op it would involve getting air supremacy over half of Iran.

    I don't think Biden, or the two big lads in white tunics who lift him in and out the bath, wants to start a war in the Gulf, close the Madiq Hormuz and trigger a global depression in an election year.

    However, he is surrounded by war-mongering maniacs so it's possible, I guess.
This discussion has been closed.