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Is 81 year-old Biden really going to run again? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.
  • MJW said:

    I think the likeliest is grudging support. They'll say he's Sunak's a bit shit but that Starmer will put Brexit at risk and put a migrant in every home.
    Set against that, The Sun has a reputation for backing winners. Now their circulation is so much smaller, it's easier to see the Sun readership not being everyman and not wanting the same as the general public.

    I can imagine them doing a big celebrity splash on election day, with election news on page 14 or so.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    edited January 2024
    Foxy said:

    "Is this the right place for an argument?"

    "I told you once..."

    "No you didn't!"

    "Yes I did!"

    On the subject of arguments, dare I ask if the major PB betting spat a few days ago was resolved amicably or does the ISAM-kinabalu Principle still apply?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    kjh said:

    Why? Seems logical to me. Like you I am no fan of Corbyn (to put it mildly), that doesn't mean he doesn't love his country even if you (like me) believe he is completely deluded in his politics and actually dangerous.The two positions are not incompatible.
    No-one who loved their country would have refused to blame Russia for the Salisbury poisonings - the use of a chemical weapon on British soil - even after being given access to the intelligence :

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/jeremy-corbyn-refuses-to-blame-russia-for-salisbury-attack-despite-seeing-new-evidence

    The man is an idiot, and a traitor.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,080

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866

    Ah, thanks. But I could have sworn Edward Teller is portrayed as mentioning deuterium in "Oppenheimer".
    Deuterium featured in the production of the *atomic* bomb in two ways.

    Firstly, as Heavy Water (Deuterium instead of Hydrogen). You could hold a small reactor with Deuterium (and uranium metal) - and use it for plutonium production. This was done experimentally in the American program - they used graphite moderated reactors for full scale plutonium production.

    The other was Super - the study of a theoretical H bomb. Back then, they thought it would be a tank of deuterium spiked with tritium and an A bomb at one end. Teller spent more than half his time at Los Alamos on the maths for this.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,977
    viewcode said:

    Ahem!
    fyi this was the jokey point:
    In geometry terms the difference between orthogonal and normal is that orthogonal is of two objects, at right angles; perpendicular to each other while normal is a line or vector that is perpendicular to another line, surface, or plane.
    Clumsily put, but that's Wikidiff for you
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    edited January 2024
    MJW said:

    Papers catering to their readership I think. Your average Times reader is more liberal and has almost certainly lost patience with the Tories. The Sun's remaining readership are possibly one of the few segments of the electorate still pro-Tory.

    Plus don't underestimate embarrassment as a factor. The Sun went all in on the Tories. To the extent their political editor was once a prominent heavily connect activist. It would be profoundly embarrassing to get into bed with Labour now. Much easier for The Times to emphasise its more Labour-friendly side.
    I would completely discount embarrassment as a factor. These papers have a very low opinion of their readerships and will have no compunction at all in flip-flopping overnight if they decide they want to be able to say "We swayed it for Labour"; they will assume their readers won't remember what was said in the paper the week before.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,969

    On the subject of drones, can drone pilots win medals for bravery?
    In the US: no, but there are caveats. The Distinguished Warfare Medal was introduced to that end, but was cancelled and replaced by a device, which is a thing added to an existing medal. The devices are subdivided into V for valor, C for combat, and R for remote. Drone pilots would get service and theater medals with a "R" device.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_award_devices
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distinguished_Warfare_Medal
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,244
    edited January 2024
    Hmmm.


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171

    Set against that, The Sun has a reputation for backing winners. Now their circulation is so much smaller, it's easier to see the Sun readership not being everyman and not wanting the same as the general public.

    I can imagine them doing a big celebrity splash on election day, with election news on page 14 or so.
    "Backing winners" will win the day imo.

    If the polls stay as they are now the Sun will know the game is up for the Tories, nothing they put in the paper will make the smallest amount of difference, so might as well be on the winning side.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,080
    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    If Biden ordered the assassination of Mr Trump, then that would be ok then?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,969
    geoffw said:

    fyi this was the jokey point:
    In geometry terms the difference between orthogonal and normal is that orthogonal is of two objects, at right angles; perpendicular to each other while normal is a line or vector that is perpendicular to another line, surface, or plane.
    Clumsily put, but that's Wikidiff for you
    Oh, I geddit. Thank you. I thought it was a bit tangential... :)
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,569
    MJW said:

    I think the likeliest is grudging support. They'll say he's Sunak's a bit shit but that Starmer will put Brexit at risk and put a migrant in every home.
    A lot of this depends on whether Rupert is still with us I suppose. Always had the impression that The Sun was one of his fave's.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,395

    No-one who loved their country would have refused to blame Russia for the Salisbury poisonings - the use of a chemical weapon on British soil - even after being given access to the intelligence :

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/jeremy-corbyn-refuses-to-blame-russia-for-salisbury-attack-despite-seeing-new-evidence

    The man is an idiot, and a traitor.
    Surely by definition if you are an idiot you believe and do idiotic things, hence it is not contradictory.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,244
    rcs1000 said:

    If Biden ordered the assassination of Mr Trump, then that would be ok then?
    It would be a way for Trump to avoid his criminal cases...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,719
    rcs1000 said:

    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    Olivia Rodrigo (one of several artists I’ve got to know via the children) is an excellent lyricist. Properly compelling to listen to.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    Foxy said:

    Seven now. Britain has a long tradition of radicalism. For every foppish Cavalier there is a russet coated Roundhead.
    You've got that totally wrong...

    It's 10.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,268

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    @DoubleCarpet

    Great list. I listened to and enjoyed 6 of your top 20.

    I recommend you check out the Caroline Polachek and Young Fathers albums from last year as well.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,395
    rcs1000 said:

    If Biden ordered the assassination of Mr Trump, then that would be ok then?
    Nope because Biden didn't win. I'm getting the hang of Trump logic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,335
    rcs1000 said:

    If Biden ordered the assassination of Mr Trump, then that would be ok then?
    Supposedly this is meant to be covered by the other batshit argument about needing impeachment at least before any charge (though that seems opposed to the idea of total immunity), that he would convicted in the Senate in that circumstance, so he could then be charged. But of course he could just kill the Senators too, making that impossible.

    Naturally the idea is insane even on its face, but even so it's bizarre how Trump fans don't seem to realise the power they think Biden and any Democrat President would have under their ideas.
  • I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    Thanks Casino,

    So in all honesty, I liked all of these albums, to a greater or lesser degree (there were a handful which I listened to that didn't make the cut and which I didn't keep in my collection - Daughter, Metallica, Miley Cyrus). It is actually quite difficult to rank them in some instances but this is my final list.

    And I'm certainly very aware that I'm pretty atypical for someone of my age group - most of my friends stopped listening to music in 1990 or thereabouts, but personally, I think pretty much every year since popular music began has had some great music and some complete rubbish - yes even the 60s - it's just that a lot of rubbish from earlier eras doesn't get played now, but IMHO the greats of the current era stand up well against those of earlier times.

    I consider myself very lucky that I like a lot of modern music, as there is always new stuff to look forward to (albums are to music as elections are to politics :smiley: ).

    But certainly, there are some albums in my list that appeared in a lot of 2023 best of lists: Depeche Mode, Mitski, PJ Harvey, EBTG, The Japanese House, OMD, Blur, Jessie Ware, Boygenius, Slowdive, Lana Del Rey, Olivia Rodrigo.

    Equally however, there are quite a few albums on my list that appeared on only a few or no year-end lists: Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Holly Humberstone, Molly Burch, Jorja Smith, Gabrielle Aplin, Maisie Peters, Freya Ridings.

    The real "find" of 2023 for me was Freya Ridings - Blood Orange (her 2nd album) didn't appear in any best of lists that I saw, but I absolutely loved it.

    So yes I think it's certainly true, depending on the publication, that they will favour certain kinds of albums, and obviously my list is slightly biased depending on how much I liked the artist to start with.

    Certainly I would never either like or not like an artist just because they were huge, or obscure, or critically acclaimed, or sneered at - in general most of my favourite artists tend to be quite/very successful, but not in all cases, and often it's the unexpected niche artists who can be the most rewarding.

    I hope that all makes sense!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,395
    edited January 2024

    You've got that totally wrong...

    It's 10.
    I think people are trolling Casino now.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,007

    I would completely discount embarrassment as a factor. These papers have a very low opinion of their readerships and will have no compunction at all in flip-flopping overnight if they decide they want to be able to say "We swayed it for Labour"; they will assume their readers won't remember what was said in the paper the week before.
    There's some truth to that. But I think The Sun has become so entangled with the Tories, as opposed to just backing them, it will struggle to extract itself.

    Harry Cole for example would be a laughing stock in his social circle if he had to grovel to Labour. Plus so many of their stories come from CCHQ or No. 10 difficult to see how build those relationships with Labour figures in the way that say, Sun figures did in the New Labour years.

    Ultimately Uncle Rupe or Lachlan Murdoch will decide - with the latter apparently more dogmatically right-wing.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    kjh said:

    Why? Seems logical to me. Like you I am no fan of Corbyn (to put it mildly), that doesn't mean he doesn't love his country even if you (like me) believe he is completely deluded in his politics and actually dangerous.The two positions are not incompatible.
    kjh said:

    Why? Seems logical to me. Like you I am no fan of Corbyn (to put it mildly), that doesn't mean he doesn't love his country even if you (like me) believe he is completely deluded in his politics and actually dangerous.The two positions are not incompatible.
    9 likes for Northern Al now.

    Casino Royale hates the vision for the country of the man who got 12.9m votes in 2017 and still thinks Corbyn does not love his Country because he wants the best for its poorest citizens and wants to make their lives better.

    Equally you could argue CR is the one to hate his country if it doesn't conform to his narrow right wing vision rather than celebrating the breadth of viewpoints of this wonderful Country like Jezza and me!
  • MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    Respect my authoritah!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    Leon said:

    Blowing up Nordstream was win-win-win for the USA

    It cut off a serious source of income for Putin
    It reduced Putin’s leverage over Europe
    It chivvied Germany into the American team
    It made America stronger, relatively, as a major energy producer
    It screwed a major economic rival, Germany, creating more jobs in America

    I think the last was probably the least of America’s aims but it surely still figured. Superpowers act with intense selfishness: because they can

    And the Ukraine war gave the Americans the perfect cover to do all this: via Ukrainian and Polish proxies so giving DC plausible deniability. A master stroke. Genuinely admirable statecraft allied with very clever subterfuge
    I thought the latest ‘evidence’ was that Ukraine special forces did it ?

    Given how cautious Biden has been over the last two years, you theory isn’t very convincing.
    As far as the US economy is concerned, I doubt it made all that much difference. Oil and gas prices would have spiked anyway.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,080
    TimS said:

    Olivia Rodrigo (one of several artists I’ve got to know via the children) is an excellent lyricist. Properly compelling to listen to.
    Likewise :smile:

    She reminds me a little bit of Garbage.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,080
    Nigelb said:

    I thought the latest ‘evidence’ was that Ukraine special forces did it ?

    Given how cautious Biden has been over the last two years, you theory isn’t very convincing.
    As far as the US economy is concerned, I doubt it made all that much difference. Oil and gas prices would have spiked anyway.
    It has been exposed as the Ukrainians for about a year now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,080
    Nigelb said:

    I thought the latest ‘evidence’ was that Ukraine special forces did it ?

    Given how cautious Biden has been over the last two years, you theory isn’t very convincing.
    As far as the US economy is concerned, I doubt it made all that much difference. Oil and gas prices would have spiked anyway.
    (Also, the States that benefited from high oil and gas prices are... errr... Republican ones. While Democrat States tend to be energy importers.)
  • rcs1000 said:

    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    Yes there are some absolute bangers on the Olivia Rodrigo album (Love Is Embarrassing, All-American Bitch) and some great ballads (eg Lacy).

    I think it's an even better album than Sour, which I really enjoyed, and above Midnights (and I'm a huge Swiftie). What I find refreshing about Olivia is that she is not pivoting to synthpop or dance or hip-hop, but towards rock - she feels like the heir to Alanis Morissette and Avril Lavigne.

    My "favourite current artists" has changed out of all recognition from the 80s and 90s when it was predominantly rock-leaning and male bands, now it is predominantly pop-leaning and female solo artists, indeed the only current guitar bands I really like are The Big Moon and Wolf Alice, and I guess at a push the Arctic Monkeys and Coldplay (who are probably not really thought of as a guitar band anyway!).
  • Set against that, The Sun has a reputation for backing winners. Now their circulation is so much smaller, it's easier to see the Sun readership not being everyman and not wanting the same as the general public.

    I can imagine them doing a big celebrity splash on election day, with election news on page 14 or so.
    Last week The Sun led on Kyle Walker's marriage when every other paper splashed the Post Office scandal, so yes, it is easily possible.
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4653219#Comment_4653219
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,271
    edited January 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    From those on the list, I quite like Maisie Peters too, not listened to her album (I don't really listen to albums) but stream her songs frequently. Quite a bit of good music coming out from ladies, I agree not much from the guys.

    Though for upcoming male artists my wife is a big fan of Noah Kahan, from America.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,135

    On the subject of arguments, dare I ask if the major PB betting spat a few days ago was resolved amicably or does the ISAM-kinabalu Principle still apply?
    It wasn’t resolved amicably, and I said just let him have the bet
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,080

    Yes there are some absolute bangers on the Olivia Rodrigo album (Love Is Embarrassing, All-American Bitch) and some great ballads (eg Lacy).

    I think it's an even better album than Sour, which I really enjoyed, and above Midnights (and I'm a huge Swiftie). What I find refreshing about Olivia is that she is not pivoting to synthpop or dance or hip-hop, but towards rock - she feels like the heir to Alanis Morissette and Avril Lavigne.

    My "favourite current artists" has changed out of all recognition from the 80s and 90s when it was predominantly rock-leaning and male bands, now it is predominantly pop-leaning and female solo artists, indeed the only current guitar bands I really like are The Big Moon and Wolf Alice, and I guess at a push the Arctic Monkeys and Coldplay (who are probably not really thought of as a guitar band anyway!).
    Man, if only you hadn't gone and ruined it by mentioning Coldplay.
  • More evidence that Brexit was never about improving the quality of life and health of the people in the UK, of you and your families; it’s about removing restrictions so rich people and the companies they own can become even richer as our environment degrades.

    ‘Despite Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and the other architects of Brexit promising that environmental protections would be strengthened after the vote to leave the EU, the Guardian’s analysis shows the opposite is the case.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/19/brexit-divergence-from-eu-destroying-vital-environmental-protections
  • I like the block capitals. Authoritative. Presidential. Not mad.
    My children have always had calmer temper tantrums than him.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 930
    edited January 2024
    Ratters said:

    @DoubleCarpet

    Great list. I listened to and enjoyed 6 of your top 20.

    I recommend you check out the Caroline Polachek and Young Fathers albums from last year as well.
    Many thanks Ratters! - out of interest what were the 6 that you liked?

    I actually listened to the Caroline Polachek this afternoon, and quite enjoyed it, but not quite enough for it to break into my above list - thanks for the Young Fathers recommendation too.
  • I like the block capitals. Authoritative. Presidential. Not mad.
    You can see where he's coming from.


  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,621
    TimS said:

    It’s a nice word though. Orthogonal.
    A German friend complained to me the other day that someone had talked about an “oligopsony” to him…
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,268

    Many thanks Ratters! - out of interest what were the 6 that you liked?

    I actually listened to the Caroline Polachek this afternoon, and quite enjoyed it, but not quite enough for it to break into my above list - thanks for the Young Fathers recommendation too.
    My six from your list were Arlo Parks, Paramore, Mitski, Jessie Ware, Boygenius and Lana Del Rey.

    I have Olivia Rodrigo on my to listen to list but I haven't got round to it properly yet.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Man, if only you hadn't gone and ruined it by mentioning Coldplay.
    Looks like autocorrect to me.

    That's what happens when you type Radioh.....
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,719

    A German friend complained to me the other day that someone had talked about an “oligopsony” to him…
    I learned only this week what a quincunx is.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,977
    edited January 2024
    Javier Milei is the kind of politician I approve of. He's nothing at all like Trump. Let's hope he can take Argentina back to economic sanity and prosperity.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/javier-milei-is-a-breath-of-fresh-air/

    Each year [at Davos] world leaders line up behind the idea that the answers to our countless problems simply require a bit more intervention from 3,000 people in attendance at a Swiss ski resort.

    But credit goes to the WEF this year for inviting the antidote to the conference’s misguided ideals – and giving him a platform on the centre stage. Argentina’s newly elected President Javier Milei’s 23-minute speech swiftly and eloquently dismantled the underlying assumption of the Davos conference: that the state and its friends tend to know best. In a total break with the usual platitudes spouted at Davos, Milei opted instead for an unabashed defence of free market capitalism – the only system, he said, which is really ‘morally desirable’ because of its proved outcomes for people.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,719

    Looks like autocorrect to me.

    That's what happens when you type Radioh.....
    On a related topic (ingredients on pizza) I made white pizza with sprouts today. Sprouts on pizza are excellent, strongly recommended.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Man, if only you hadn't gone and ruined it by mentioning Coldplay.
    Coldplay is excellent. Right up until the moment Chris Martin opens his mouth.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,155
    I see the first line of Johnson's latest column of piffle for pounds contains an archaic word.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,489
    rcs1000 said:

    Man, if only you hadn't gone and ruined it by mentioning Coldplay.
    Well done for remaining stoic through 'heir to Avril Lavigne'.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    9 likes for Northern Al now.

    Casino Royale hates the vision for the country of the man who got 12.9m votes in 2017 and still thinks Corbyn does not love his Country because he wants the best for its poorest citizens and wants to make their lives better.

    Equally you could argue CR is the one to hate his country if it doesn't conform to his narrow right wing vision rather than celebrating the breadth of viewpoints of this wonderful Country like Jezza and me!
    Yes, it's a narrow right-wing vision to oppose the Russian state carrying out assassinations with chemical weapons on our own soil.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    Thanks Casino,

    So in all honesty, I liked all of these albums, to a greater or lesser degree (there were a handful which I listened to that didn't make the cut and which I didn't keep in my collection - Daughter, Metallica, Miley Cyrus). It is actually quite difficult to rank them in some instances but this is my final list.

    And I'm certainly very aware that I'm pretty atypical for someone of my age group - most of my friends stopped listening to music in 1990 or thereabouts, but personally, I think pretty much every year since popular music began has had some great music and some complete rubbish - yes even the 60s - it's just that a lot of rubbish from earlier eras doesn't get played now, but IMHO the greats of the current era stand up well against those of earlier times.

    I consider myself very lucky that I like a lot of modern music, as there is always new stuff to look forward to (albums are to music as elections are to politics :smiley: ).

    But certainly, there are some albums in my list that appeared in a lot of 2023 best of lists: Depeche Mode, Mitski, PJ Harvey, EBTG, The Japanese House, OMD, Blur, Jessie Ware, Boygenius, Slowdive, Lana Del Rey, Olivia Rodrigo.

    Equally however, there are quite a few albums on my list that appeared on only a few or no year-end lists: Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Holly Humberstone, Molly Burch, Jorja Smith, Gabrielle Aplin, Maisie Peters, Freya Ridings.

    The real "find" of 2023 for me was Freya Ridings - Blood Orange (her 2nd album) didn't appear in any best of lists that I saw, but I absolutely loved it.

    So yes I think it's certainly true, depending on the publication, that they will favour certain kinds of albums, and obviously my list is slightly biased depending on how much I liked the artist to start with.

    Certainly I would never either like or not like an artist just because they were huge, or obscure, or critically acclaimed, or sneered at - in general most of my favourite artists tend to be quite/very successful, but not in all cases, and often it's the unexpected niche artists who can be the most rewarding.

    I hope that all makes sense!
    Thanks. I did enjoy Depeche Mode's new album, actually.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,977

    A German friend complained to me the other day that someone had talked about an “oligopsony” to him…
    Few buyers - e.g. for military/defence products

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,826
    geoffw said:

    Javier Milei is the kind of politician I approve of. He's nothing at all like Trump. Let's hope he can take Argentina back to economic sanity and prosperity.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/javier-milei-is-a-breath-of-fresh-air/

    Each year [at Davos] world leaders line up behind the idea that the answers to our countless problems simply require a bit more intervention from 3,000 people in attendance at a Swiss ski resort.

    But credit goes to the WEF this year for inviting the antidote to the conference’s misguided ideals – and giving him a platform on the centre stage. Argentina’s newly elected President Javier Milei’s 23-minute speech swiftly and eloquently dismantled the underlying assumption of the Davos conference: that the state and its friends tend to know best. In a total break with the usual platitudes spouted at Davos, Milei opted instead for an unabashed defence of free market capitalism – the only system, he said, which is really ‘morally desirable’ because of its proved outcomes for people.

    Well, let's see how it works before proclaiming him the Messiah.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    Edit: Freya Ridings sounds nice. Got a KT Tunstall/Adele feel to it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,335
    edited January 2024

    You can see where he's coming from.


    No one more stable and non-authoritarian than Roman Emperors of course.

    Granted the writing style wasn't a sign of that, but still.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,977
    edited January 2024
    Foxy said:

    Well, let's see how it works before proclaiming him the Messiah.
    He was previously bigged up as a very naughty boy though

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
  • Thanks. I did enjoy Depeche Mode's new album, actually.
    It's the only album on DC's list I bought all year!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Yes, it's a narrow right-wing vision to oppose the Russian state carrying out assassinations with chemical weapons on our own soil.
    No its not but thinking a man hates his country because he disagrees with you is
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,750
    Foxy said:

    Well, let's see how it works before proclaiming him the Messiah.
    He could soon be performing miracles, making people disappear.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    It’s amazing how desensitized some people have become to Trump .

    A man devoid of even a shred of humanity or morality .

    From mocking the disabled to repeating Nazi tropes, and yet some just give him a free pass. Quite despicable.

  • nico679 said:

    It’s amazing how desensitized some people have become to Trump .

    A man devoid of even a shred of humanity or morality .

    From mocking the disabled to repeating Nazi tropes, and yet some just give him a free pass. Quite despicable.

    just shows how bad the people up against him then if the public still hold to him .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    No its not but thinking a man hates his country because he disagrees with you is
    You're a fanatic and blind to it.

    Thus, discussion with you is pointless.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    nico679 said:

    It’s amazing how desensitized some people have become to Trump .

    A man devoid of even a shred of humanity or morality .

    From mocking the disabled to repeating Nazi tropes, and yet some just give him a free pass. Quite despicable.

    His talent is to provoke, which generates a reaction and thus amplifies him.

    And you fall for it every single time.
  • Pagan2 said:

    By that definition beagle was a mars landing....it wasnt it was we crashed something into mars
    Nope because it specifically references succesful soft landings - which have been achieved by the 5 nations mentioned. Stop squirming.
  • just shows how bad the people up against him then if the public still hold to him .
    Or it shows how bad the people who support him are.

    A significant minority of the American electorate really are deplorable.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    His talent is to provoke, which generates a reaction and thus amplifies him.

    And you fall for it every single time.
    Saying he’s just trying to provoke is a way to diminish his actions , it implies he’s not the real person we see . This is giving him a free pass . I’m not the one falling for anything .

    Maya Angelou’s words ring true .
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,621

    My God, if we're having this much debate over what constitutes a spacecraft 'landing', I hope to goodness no evil sod comes in here and mentions the 'manned' versus 'crewed' debate.... ;)

    How about firing arrows… 😈
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    edited January 2024

    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,120

    Johnson is on about "the Western liberal ­intelligentsia" in a negative way in his latest pile of Mail crap.

    Surely there can be no finer, indeed higher, member of this dangerous caste than an English Old Etonian who read Classics at Oxbridge, edited the Spectator and went on to be an MP, foreign sec and then PM?

    Surely?

    Am I mad?

    His first wife was called Allegra for crying out loud.

    What a fucking hypocrite.

    I don't think Johnson can be considered 'intelligentsia.'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,120
    edited January 2024
    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    It's a very easy decision.

    But the decision will be made not on the basis of the facts or the law but that two thirds of the justices of the Supreme Court are just as mad, bad dishonest and treasonous as he is.

    That probably makes it very easy for them, to be fair.

    Watching large chunks of America collapse in thrall to a failed con artist with a desperate need to overcome his insecurities would be pitiful if the potential consequences weren't so serious.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,080

    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    rcs1000 said:

    If Biden ordered the assassination of Mr Trump, then that would be ok then?
    As long as he’s not impeached and a two thirds majority of the Senate finds him guilty. In which case he would lose immunity.

    That is literally what Trump and his lawyers are arguing.

    So with a third of the Senate plus one on your side, no problem.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,093

    You can see where he's coming from.


    He’s a chiseller rather than a knapper?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,975
    ydoethur said:

    I don't think Johnson can be considered 'intelligentsia.'
    Salt of the Earth?
  • rcs1000 said:

    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    Would be absolutely hilarious if that happened, though Biden winning both is considerably more likely in my eyes.

    Be funny to see how many suddenly start to think the popular vote is what matters afterall if that happens.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,120
    Nigelb said:

    As long as he’s not impeached and a two thirds majority of the Senate finds him guilty. In which case he would lose immunity.

    That is literally what Trump and his lawyers are arguing.

    So with a third of the Senate plus one on your side, no problem.
    Doesn't Biden have ultimate control of Trump's security detail?

    Have his lawyers really thought this through?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    rcs1000 said:

    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    I've covered that with my "5% chance" ;-)

    Seriously, what a delicious irony that would be. Can you imagine how incandescent Trump will be if he wins the popular vote and loses the election - and how he will then have to explain why that was ok in 2016 but is an 'election steal' in 2024?
  • ydoethur said:

    Doesn't Biden have ultimate control of Trump's security detail?

    Have his lawyers really thought this through?
    Its disturbing that the thread is a question which is not a QTWAIN.

    Thank you for restoring balance to the force.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,120
    rcs1000 said:

    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    Republicans aren't very good at winning the popular vote. And what does Trump really offer to people who aren't swivel-eyed loons? Record corruption, violence, catastrophic economic mismanagement and the abandonment of every policy he was elected on. Not too great a pitch.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    So, cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias is the answer.

    Got it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    rcs1000 said:

    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    I want to bet on that too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,080

    I've covered that with my "5% chance" ;-)

    Seriously, what a delicious irony that would be. Can you imagine how incandescent Trump will be if he wins the popular vote and loses the election - and how he will then have to explain why that was ok in 2016 but is an 'election steal' in 2024?
    He won't think that is a contradiction at all: he will claim he won, and will call for the people to rise up and overthrow the government.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171

    So, cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias is the answer.

    Got it.
    Cognitive dissonance? Are you sure that was the term you meant to use?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,120

    Innkeeper charged for allowing carpenter and his pregnant wife to sleep in his manger.
    He made an ass of himself.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,120
    rcs1000 said:

    He won't think
    I'd have just stopped there.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    DavidL said:
    Timely evidence for the 4th point in my, er, 'cognitive dissonance' post.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,309

    just shows how bad the people up against him then if the public still hold to him .
    I disagree. I think what we have seen with Trump, and some other similar characters, is that the old assumption that even if we disagree politically we broadly share the same values about rules, precedent, law and so on is a false assumption. A lot of people accross the political spectrum will take a "win" however it is achieved. We kid ourselves if we think that the rule of law and respect for democracy and its institutions are very widely shared beliefs. I don't know if this a new thing, or we are just seeing it clearly now, or possibly there is a diminution of playing fair as it's been a long time in the West since we've seen where such dangerous paths can lead.

    Are Trump's opponents rubbish? Yes. But that doesn't make supporting him acceptable, people used to hold politicians to higher standards that would have rendered Trump unelectable, that's clearly no longer the case.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,007
    glw said:

    I disagree. I think what we have seen with Trump, and some other similar characters, is that the old assumption that even if we disagree politically we broadly share the same values about rules, precedent, law and so on is a false assumption. A lot of people accross the political spectrum will take a "win" however it is achieved. We kid ourselves if we think that the rule of law and respect for democracy and its institutions are very widely shared beliefs. I don't know if this a new thing, or we are just seeing it clearly now, or possibly there is a diminution of playing fair as it's been a long time in the West since we've seen where such dangerous paths can lead.

    Are Trump's opponents rubbish? Yes. But that doesn't make supporting him acceptable, people used to hold politicians to higher standards that would have rendered Trump unelectable, that's clearly no longer the case.
    One thing is the complicity of moderate Republican leaders in offering a permission structure for people to support Trump.

    Even those who broadly oppose him are very quiet and unwilling to publicly prosecute the case against him - so of course lots of voters see the justified objections to him as another partisan argument in which they plump for their guy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,996
    geoffw said:

    Javier Milei is the kind of politician I approve of. He's nothing at all like Trump. Let's hope he can take Argentina back to economic sanity and prosperity.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/javier-milei-is-a-breath-of-fresh-air/

    Each year [at Davos] world leaders line up behind the idea that the answers to our countless problems simply require a bit more intervention from 3,000 people in attendance at a Swiss ski resort.

    But credit goes to the WEF this year for inviting the antidote to the conference’s misguided ideals – and giving him a platform on the centre stage. Argentina’s newly elected President Javier Milei’s 23-minute speech swiftly and eloquently dismantled the underlying assumption of the Davos conference: that the state and its friends tend to know best. In a total break with the usual platitudes spouted at Davos, Milei opted instead for an unabashed defence of free market capitalism – the only system, he said, which is really ‘morally desirable’ because of its proved outcomes for people.

    Arguably a necessary corrective to the last century in Argentina, but his analysis is by assertion rather than evidence.
    Just another dogmatist.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,309
    MJW said:

    One thing is the complicity of moderate Republican leaders in offering a permission structure for people to support Trump.

    Even those who broadly oppose him are very quiet and unwilling to publicly prosecute the case against him - so of course lots of voters see the justified objections to him as another partisan argument in which they plump for their guy.

    The GOP at a leadership level is full of people who hate Trump but are now beholden to him. They are spineless to a degree previously only seen in authoritarian states where if you don't applaud the Leader long enough you might disappear. The GOP doesn't deserve a comeback after Trump it warrants destruction.

  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Today the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had a productive discussion on how we are delivering record funding for the NHS & cutting waiting lists while meeting members of the public.

    https://twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/1748366773806600331

    Has to be one of the worst public meetings a PM has had other than Brown's infamous one.

    Rishi Sunak is going to come severely unstuck on the campaign trail IMHO.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,007
    glw said:

    The GOP at a leadership level is full of people who hate Trump but are now beholden to him. They are spineless to a degree previously only seen in authoritarian states where if you don't applaud the Leader long enough you might disappear. The GOP doesn't deserve a comeback after Trump it warrants destruction.

    Yup. To some extent all our political systems rely on party elites to vet those in leadership roles to weed out those who may have an appeal but have disqualifying traits. Here in the UK both parties have struggled with that but ultimately got there in the end as enough MPs were prepared to risk or end their career to do the right thing. Often after much of the damage had been done. But still.

    It's like the discussion of Farage earlier as a potential Tory leader. Whatever his retail skills if it were ever a serious possibility you'd hope Tories would realise they were putting a fox in charge of the hen house.

    The GOP's path and what it will mean for Anerica will likely go down in history as an example of what happens when that doesn't happen.
This discussion has been closed.