OK I’ve now seen the whole video. The kerfuffle is ridiculous. He’s perfectly polite, perhaps a tiny bit condescending. - but 98% of senior politicians come across as condescending. He gives her time, he shakes her hand, she seems satisfied that the PM took the trouble to chat with her, and…. That’s it
This is not remotely in the league of Bigotgate. Get a grip, PB
You mean the clip was edited maliciously to make him look bad? Well I never.
indeed. This won’t shift a single vote. Utter nonsense
The Tories are still headed for a terrible loss, but this means less-than-nothing in that context
I think that’s worse than the bigoted woman moment. At least Brown was caught on mic afterwards and came across as reasonable to her face, and stayed to listen to what she had to say.
Rishi's inexperience at retail politics is going to be horrible to watch come the election.
There's an art to remaining calm when being criticised. Football referees have it, police officers have it, teachers have it, politicians have it.
But a lot of them don't have it to begin with. They learn it, gradually and painfully.
What, if anything, has Sunak got in his CV for that?
Respond don't React. I've had lessons on that and it's very powerful if you can master it. Which I haven't btw (as people here will have noticed).
If he is alive, or in his current state which apparently passes for alive, then he'll run because the dominant aspect of his personality is vanity.
What are the actuarial odds of an 81 year old with access to the best healthcare in the world dropping dead in the next ten months? 10%? 5%?
The average of dementia onset in the USA is 83.7, ie about halfway through Biden’s next term
On the positive side, he has the best health care and all that; on the negative side he already looks deeply frail and already shows signs of major cognitive decline (so does Trump, btw, but he is better at hiding it - perhaps because he is physically more robust)
That's the average age of dementia onset GIVEN THAT THAT PERSON IS DIAGNOSED WITH DEMENTIA.
I don't know if you were implying it or not, but it is definitely not the point at which half the population get dementia.
One other point - Trump has been recently vocal at saying he thinks the likes of NY could be in play (I don't think that is as outlandish as it sounds for various reasons). If he truly does think that, then there would be another reason to pick Stefanik.
It’s clearly not bigot gate but I see the Tory fan club in here are trying to argue black is white.
I am not a member of the conservative party nor do I support any party but no matter there is no black and white - the full clip shows the story and a hand shake at the end
Given Biden is the only Democrat who has proven he can beat Trump, no reason he won't run again. Especially as no alternative Democrat candidate polls any better.
If Trump fails to get the GOP nomination and goes Independent, all the better for Biden
Southam Observer’s tweeted it about twenty times by the way
Classic problem with social media. Partial Sunak clip is circulated. We all react to that. Then the full clip appears. Shows completely different context. But people have to be tribal. So they have to say "well, it's just as bad". It isn't. It's totally different.
He just looks like he couldn’t give a toss and starts walking off and then suddenly realizes oh dear this looks bad .
Sunak continued in conversation with her as they moved on and as has been said they shook hands at the end
Sunak can be criticised for a lot of things but not this
He can be criticised, though. Two schoolboy errors:
First, the laugh after the lady says "back to how it was". Even if that was because of an absolute zinger from someone else in the crowd, it betrays someone not properly listening.
Second, he does walk away mid conversation. The lady has to follow him to finish her point. Again, you just don't do that if you are intentionally listening.
He retrieves it somewhat with the handshake at the end, but that doesn't completely save him.
And if some of the criticisms of him are overegged, tough. We should be able to expect better of our politicians.
(It doesn't help that "Sunak thinks improving the NHS is really funny" taps into the collective prejudice about him.)
He just looks like he couldn’t give a toss and starts walking off and then suddenly realizes oh dear this looks bad .
Sunak continued in conversation with her as they moved on and as has been said they shook hands at the end
Sunak can be criticised for a lot of things but not this
He can be criticised, though. Two schoolboy errors:
First, the laugh after the lady says "back to how it was". Even if that was because of an absolute zinger from someone else in the crowd, it betrays someone not properly listening.
Second, he does walk away mid conversation. The lady has to follow him to finish her point. Again, you just don't do that if you are intentionally listening.
He retrieves it somewhat with the handshake at the end, but that doesn't completely save him.
And if some of the criticisms of him are overegged, tough. We should be able to expect better of our politicians.
(It doesn't help that "Sunak thinks improving the NHS is really funny" taps into the collective prejudice about him.)
Nonsense! Every single person in that crowd - nay, a mob! - was a Labour plant!
If Labour can be the party of getting things (in the NHS at least) "back to how they used to be" then the boomer vote might be up for grabs after all. conservatism with a small c is prevalent in all cultures and it needn't always mean fiscally conservative or culturally conservative. Sometimes it is as simple as a yearning for the good old days, left or right.
If Labour can be the party of getting things (in the NHS at least) "back to how they used to be" then the boomer vote might be up for grabs after all. conservatism with a small c is prevalent in all cultures and it needn't always mean fiscally conservative or culturally conservative. Sometimes it is as simple as a yearning for the good old days, left or right.
Careful now. If voters get the message you can revisit mistakes from the past and undo unwelcome changes, who knows where that might lead...
He just looks like he couldn’t give a toss and starts walking off and then suddenly realizes oh dear this looks bad .
Sunak continued in conversation with her as they moved on and as has been said they shook hands at the end
Sunak can be criticised for a lot of things but not this
He can be criticised, though. Two schoolboy errors:
First, the laugh after the lady says "back to how it was". Even if that was because of an absolute zinger from someone else in the crowd, it betrays someone not properly listening.
Second, he does walk away mid conversation. The lady has to follow him to finish her point. Again, you just don't do that if you are intentionally listening.
He retrieves it somewhat with the handshake at the end, but that doesn't completely save him.
And if some of the criticisms of him are overegged, tough. We should be able to expect better of our politicians.
(It doesn't help that "Sunak thinks improving the NHS is really funny" taps into the collective prejudice about him.)
Nonsense! Every single person in that crowd - nay, a mob! - was a Labour plant!
I was thinking, before the context of the full clip saved his blushes, that CCHQ would be furiously tracking down the woman online and trying to find some sort of Labour link so they could say she was an activist.
If he is alive, or in his current state which apparently passes for alive, then he'll run because the dominant aspect of his personality is vanity.
What are the actuarial odds of an 81 year old with access to the best healthcare in the world dropping dead in the next ten months? 10%? 5%?
The average of dementia onset in the USA is 83.7, ie about halfway through Biden’s next term
On the positive side, he has the best health care and all that; on the negative side he already looks deeply frail and already shows signs of major cognitive decline (so does Trump, btw, but he is better at hiding it - perhaps because he is physically more robust)
That's the average age of dementia onset GIVEN THAT THAT PERSON IS DIAGNOSED WITH DEMENTIA.
I don't know if you were implying it or not, but it is definitely not the point at which half the population get dementia.
OK fair enough, it was a flippant remark in reaction to @Dura_Ace’s speculations about the chances of him dying, actuarially
I am happy to withdraw it as a serious point, in any context
However, and quite seriously, I think Biden already has some kind of dementia, senility, call it what you will. I’ve seen too many videos of him behaving quite bizarrely, and cluelessly, and looking horribly like aged relatives of mine - with dementia. the idea it is just because “he has a stammer” is fucking ridiculous
Surely every good politician knows that you shouldn't delete your messages, instead you should say that your phone was hacked, or lost/broken with no backups made, or fell over the side of the ferry you were on. Basic stuff for the political classes nowadays.
I think that’s worse than the bigoted woman moment. At least Brown was caught on mic afterwards and came across as reasonable to her face, and stayed to listen to what she had to say.
Rishi's inexperience at retail politics is going to be horrible to watch come the election.
There's an art to remaining calm when being criticised. Football referees have it, police officers have it, teachers have it, politicians have it.
But a lot of them don't have it to begin with. They learn it, gradually and painfully.
What, if anything, has Sunak got in his CV for that?
Respond don't React. I've had lessons on that and it's very powerful if you can master it. Which I haven't btw (as people here will have noticed).
Farage is brilliant at this. At remaining unruffled. See his confrontation with that deeply annoying young woman on I’m A Celeb. She was stupidly offensive, he stayed calm, polite, lucid, and amiable. And won over quite a few viewers
Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.
But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
For it to be worth changing leader the Tories need someone who can fundamentally rethink what and who their party is for. Someone who can reach out to those who previously would have been swing or even shy Tory voters but who are now viscerally anti-Tory.
But their MPs and members don't want that. They'd either choose another Sunak - superficially competent but too weak to ask tough questions and take on the headbangers. Or another Truss - a loony who'll try and give the right everything it wants without thinking through the consequences.
Jesus it is quite tempting to move to Phnom Penh, I’m sitting in a great little bar - outdoors, of course - next to a bunch of British Aussie and French geezers, in their 50s and up, all having a great time, but also interesting, funny, engaged. Not sad moody expats
Maybe they are all on holiday, doesn’t feel like it. Feels like they live here and have agreeable Iives in the tropical warmth. Like an Anglophone version of those happy old Sicilian men you see in the nicer piazzas gossiping outside a charming cafe, and eating cannoli. Probably ex Mafia, but all passions spent, all feuds defused
"A Labour MP who worked in IT has said a "broader message" about the dangers of trusting computer systems might emerge from the Post Office Horizon scandal.
Cambridge's Daniel Zeichner said systems were only as good as the people behind them."
I think that’s worse than the bigoted woman moment. At least Brown was caught on mic afterwards and came across as reasonable to her face, and stayed to listen to what she had to say.
Rishi's inexperience at retail politics is going to be horrible to watch come the election.
There's an art to remaining calm when being criticised. Football referees have it, police officers have it, teachers have it, politicians have it.
But a lot of them don't have it to begin with. They learn it, gradually and painfully.
What, if anything, has Sunak got in his CV for that?
Respond don't React. I've had lessons on that and it's very powerful if you can master it. Which I haven't btw (as people here will have noticed).
Farage is brilliant at this. At remaining unruffled. See his confrontation with that deeply annoying young woman on I’m A Celeb. She was stupidly offensive, he stayed calm, polite, lucid, and amiable. And won over quite a few viewers
The Tories really do need him as leader
You're trying to test my "Respond don't React" credentials with this, aren't you?
I think that’s worse than the bigoted woman moment. At least Brown was caught on mic afterwards and came across as reasonable to her face, and stayed to listen to what she had to say.
Rishi's inexperience at retail politics is going to be horrible to watch come the election.
There's an art to remaining calm when being criticised. Football referees have it, police officers have it, teachers have it, politicians have it.
But a lot of them don't have it to begin with. They learn it, gradually and painfully.
What, if anything, has Sunak got in his CV for that?
Respond don't React. I've had lessons on that and it's very powerful if you can master it. Which I haven't btw (as people here will have noticed).
Farage is brilliant at this. At remaining unruffled. See his confrontation with that deeply annoying young woman on I’m A Celeb. She was stupidly offensive, he stayed calm, polite, lucid, and amiable. And won over quite a few viewers
The Tories really do need him as leader
You're trying to test my "Respond don't React" credentials with this, aren't you?
And I've passed.
lol, yes, i was, a bit
But also making a serious point. Farage is a good politician; he’s good at the people stuff. Not quite as good as Boris but he has a certain charm and poise, even a bit of rizz
Compared to Sunak or Starmer he’s Thatcher crossed with a young JFK with a dash of Bishop Desmond Tutu
"A Labour MP who worked in IT has said a "broader message" about the dangers of trusting computer systems might emerge from the Post Office Horizon scandal.
Cambridge's Daniel Zeichner said systems were only as good as the people behind them."
It’s definitely awkward and a little strange, but it’s not enough to finish Sunak. We are so close to the GE and they’ve already had nine leaders in the last fortnight it would need something seismic for Sunak to be booted out. Like the discovery he’s a bigamist with a secret gay husband in Tierra del Fuego, called Terry. Who deals fentanyl. To indigenous people. Using Sunak’s money to buy the precursor chemicals. From Mexican cartels. Based in Moscow. Who funnel the profits to a Netanyahu-approved death squad that take out disabled Islamic poets in and around Luton, once the targets have been approved. By Rishi Sunak, from his secret Muslim Poet Death Decision Pod encrusted with blood diamonds
THAT, I think, could be the end of him; vote might be close, tho
This is the one thing that would make me vote for him
How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?
if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?
I think that’s worse than the bigoted woman moment. At least Brown was caught on mic afterwards and came across as reasonable to her face, and stayed to listen to what she had to say.
Rishi's inexperience at retail politics is going to be horrible to watch come the election.
There's an art to remaining calm when being criticised. Football referees have it, police officers have it, teachers have it, politicians have it.
But a lot of them don't have it to begin with. They learn it, gradually and painfully.
What, if anything, has Sunak got in his CV for that?
Respond don't React. I've had lessons on that and it's very powerful if you can master it. Which I haven't btw (as people here will have noticed).
Farage is brilliant at this. At remaining unruffled. See his confrontation with that deeply annoying young woman on I’m A Celeb. She was stupidly offensive, he stayed calm, polite, lucid, and amiable. And won over quite a few viewers
The Tories really do need him as leader
You're trying to test my "Respond don't React" credentials with this, aren't you?
And I've passed.
It can go too far though. Throughout my career (indeed right back to primary school) the regular feedback has been that I look like I don't really care. At its best it's translated as calm and unruffled in a crisis, at its worst it's, well, he doesn't care. The most flattering version is "Goweresque".
We've had a few thin skinned and easily ruffled politicians recently: Boris, Corbyn and Sunak in particular plus Swinson. Plus Trump of course. A few genuinely good at responding not reacting, including Farage but also Salmond, Cameron, Gove, Starmer (so far) and Cable. And elsewhere Macron, Merkel and Biden. But Osborne never looked like he cared enough, Kwarteng's downfall was at least partly for similar reasons and this was also a particular problem with a number of Tory ministers back in the 1990s.
More recently a new type has entered the fray: the robot. Thick skinned but too mechanical to be Goweresque.
Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.
But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.
At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...
Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?
if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?
Hmmm
It would heavily depend on whether those themes you mention - which are largely boomer themes - get handed down to the next generation of elderly voters which by then will include a large chunk of GenX.
European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
...The Japanese attempt to land on the Moon just 100m from its target is "unprecedented", says Dr Emma Gatti, a former Nasa scientist and editor-in-chief of SpaceWatch Global.
Most spacecraft touch down kilometres away from their intended target, she tells the BBC.
Apollo 11 - the spacecraft that landed the first humans on the moon - landed around 6.5 kilometres from the target, which is "a bit like if you wanted to land in Buckingham Palace and you arrive in Brixton," she says.
She adds that it would be "historic" for Japan - a country much smaller than the United States or China - to join them in becoming only the fifth country to land on the Moon...
I think that’s worse than the bigoted woman moment. At least Brown was caught on mic afterwards and came across as reasonable to her face, and stayed to listen to what she had to say.
Rishi's inexperience at retail politics is going to be horrible to watch come the election.
There's an art to remaining calm when being criticised. Football referees have it, police officers have it, teachers have it, politicians have it.
But a lot of them don't have it to begin with. They learn it, gradually and painfully.
What, if anything, has Sunak got in his CV for that?
Respond don't React. I've had lessons on that and it's very powerful if you can master it. Which I haven't btw (as people here will have noticed).
Farage is brilliant at this. At remaining unruffled. See his confrontation with that deeply annoying young woman on I’m A Celeb. She was stupidly offensive, he stayed calm, polite, lucid, and amiable. And won over quite a few viewers
The Tories really do need him as leader
You're trying to test my "Respond don't React" credentials with this, aren't you?
And I've passed.
lol, yes, i was, a bit
But also making a serious point. Farage is a good politician; he’s good at the people stuff. Not quite as good as Boris but he has a certain charm and poise, even a bit of rizz
Compared to Sunak or Starmer he’s Thatcher crossed with a young JFK with a dash of Bishop Desmond Tutu
Ok, so up to point lord copper (1st time for me with that).
Farage is (or can be) formidable. He'd get the far right to 18%, I think. He has the 'touch'. To illustrate how much, take me and him. I hate his politics and have a healthy contempt for all the people he hangs with (and tbh most people who'd vote for him), yet I used to really rate him as a politician and quite like him too. That only stopped when he disappeared up Donald Trump's arse. That wrecked him for me. Plus his relentless grifting these days. So now, thankfully, it's all aligned and I cannot abide him on any level, but I was for a time conflicted.
And I still prefer him to the absolutely ghastly "Boris".
Starmer/Sunak? It's a mistake to bracket them imo. Starmer is way way better.
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.
But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.
At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...
Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
A good point. If it weren't for that he'd still be in the saddle and riding a fair bit higher than Sunak is now. But it happened, he got mired in scandal and - the kicker - he still is. The brand is badly damaged. No way back imo. The lipstick came off the pig and too many have seen what was revealed. Oink oink.
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Yes. The Tories need to beg - absolutely beg! - Dr Evil (or whatever his name is) to orchestrate a by-election (by fair means or foul) and get Boris reinstated. Doing a 'I've learnt my lesson and I'm a changed man' thing should be a sufficient way of skipping over previous misdeeds, and then he can sock it to Sir Keir. It's so crazy the public might actually find it endearing. What have the Tories got to lose?
The huge advantage it has is that Boris won the last GE. Yes, all that faff about “We vote for 650 MPs…” but to most people, he won last time and it wouldn’t seem weird to have him fight this one.
Must say though, having seen the extended @Big_G_NorthWales clip of Sunak today, what happened is nothing at all. He continued to speak with the lady and left on good terms. Fair play to him
Sky are suggesting Sunak may have been laughing at a comment from the crowd
Last week I couldn't tell if some-one was waving at me or the person behind me. In other news, I have lost my job as a lifeguard.
...The Japanese attempt to land on the Moon just 100m from its target is "unprecedented", says Dr Emma Gatti, a former Nasa scientist and editor-in-chief of SpaceWatch Global.
Most spacecraft touch down kilometres away from their intended target, she tells the BBC.
Apollo 11 - the spacecraft that landed the first humans on the moon - landed around 6.5 kilometres from the target, which is "a bit like if you wanted to land in Buckingham Palace and you arrive in Brixton," she says.
She adds that it would be "historic" for Japan - a country much smaller than the United States or China - to join them in becoming only the fifth country to land on the Moon...
Hmmm. That is a bit unfair. One of the reasons Apollo 11 landed a good distance from its intended site was that Armstrong saw that close up the proposed landing site was strewn with boulders and deided to take control and fly the lander himself.
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Trump's numbers with black men, for example, are higher than ever.
I think that’s worse than the bigoted woman moment. At least Brown was caught on mic afterwards and came across as reasonable to her face, and stayed to listen to what she had to say.
Rishi's inexperience at retail politics is going to be horrible to watch come the election.
There's an art to remaining calm when being criticised. Football referees have it, police officers have it, teachers have it, politicians have it.
But a lot of them don't have it to begin with. They learn it, gradually and painfully.
What, if anything, has Sunak got in his CV for that?
Respond don't React. I've had lessons on that and it's very powerful if you can master it. Which I haven't btw (as people here will have noticed).
Farage is brilliant at this. At remaining unruffled. See his confrontation with that deeply annoying young woman on I’m A Celeb. She was stupidly offensive, he stayed calm, polite, lucid, and amiable. And won over quite a few viewers
The Tories really do need him as leader
You're trying to test my "Respond don't React" credentials with this, aren't you?
And I've passed.
lol, yes, i was, a bit
But also making a serious point. Farage is a good politician; he’s good at the people stuff. Not quite as good as Boris but he has a certain charm and poise, even a bit of rizz
Compared to Sunak or Starmer he’s Thatcher crossed with a young JFK with a dash of Bishop Desmond Tutu
Ok, so up to point lord copper (1st time for me with that).
Farage is (or can be) formidable. He'd get the far right to 18%, I think. He has the 'touch'. To illustrate how much, take me and him. I hate his politics and have a healthy contempt for all the people he hangs with (and tbh most people who'd vote for him), yet I used to really rate him as a politician and quite like him too. That only stopped when he disappeared up Donald Trump's arse. That wrecked him for me. Plus his relentless grifting these days. So now, thankfully, it's all aligned and I cannot abide him on any level, but I was for a time conflicted.
And I still prefer him to the absolutely ghastly "Boris".
Starmer/Sunak? It's a mistake to bracket them imo. Starmer is way way better.
Farage is a bit like Corbyn I think. In that you either really like his shtick and find it endearing or find it odious.
Which is probably a big asset for a minor party leader or single issue campaigner as you generate enthusiasm where mainstream politicians don't.
But is probably not for a leader of the big two where your success or failure depends on not upsetting enough people to keep a wide coalition of voters together.
Which is why, although wooden, Starmer has been successful to date. He gets that part of the job and that it is more important than making a limited number of people very enthusiastic. In fact it's part of why he's a bit wooden. There's a calculation and ruthlessness in not being seduced by immediate applause of what some people want to hear.
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
That's not my favourite post of the day, Richard.
Its not mine either. As I said, I am even more opposed to a second Trump presicdency than I was to the first one. But I think Biden is a liability, not because of anything he has done wrong especially, but because there are just too many open goals with him, no matter how unfair some of them might be.
It is pretty much immaterial to me who is US president next January as long as it isn't Trump (and possibly DeSantis)
How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?
if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?
Hmmm
It would heavily depend on whether those themes you mention - which are largely boomer themes - get handed down to the next generation of elderly voters which by then will include a large chunk of GenX.
European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
Yes I agree. They need to copy Le Pen in the way she rejuvenated the French right
The young are voting Le Pen in extraordinary numbers
Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.
But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.
At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...
Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Would you care for a bet, winnings to charity? Bet void if its not Trump vs Biden or if a 3rd party candidate wins.
I'll pay £50 to charity of your choice if I lose, you pay £100 to MSF if I win. I'm Biden, you're Trump.
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
I agree.
On topic, I think this is QTWTAIY. It'd take an unexpected incident of some sort for him to not run now.
I don't think we have. Labour up, LD and Ref down. That's what Labour will be looking for, to consolidate their position as the chosen alternative. Tories and Green flat (Green already low at 5%).
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Trump's numbers with black men, for example, are higher than ever.
And Hispanics. And Biden is losing young lefty urban people coz he’s so pro Israel
Could be a perfect storm brewing to create Trump 2.0
If it comes down to Trump v Biden (and presuming Trump has avoided a criminal conviction at that point) then Trump wins. And the Dems will have brought it all on themselves with their feeble inability to tell Sleepy Joe to go sleep in the spare room
And, like @Richard_Tyndall Please feel free to mock me when I am proved horribly wrong!
How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?
if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?
"Outrageous bias for Sky to post an edited version of a clip which cuts out the bit where Rishi Sunak utters the brilliant line "We have resolved *all* of the industrial action in the NHS, apart from the junior doctors who are still not saying yes"."
How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?
if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?
Hmmm
It would heavily depend on whether those themes you mention - which are largely boomer themes - get handed down to the next generation of elderly voters which by then will include a large chunk of GenX.
European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
Yes I agree. They need to copy Le Pen in the way she rejuvenated the French right
The young are voting Le Pen in extraordinary numbers
Le Pen's pulled off the extraordinary feat of going from being a political pariah to cultivating almost a mother of the nation image. She should be the favourite to win the next presidential election.
I think that’s worse than the bigoted woman moment. At least Brown was caught on mic afterwards and came across as reasonable to her face, and stayed to listen to what she had to say.
Rishi's inexperience at retail politics is going to be horrible to watch come the election.
There's an art to remaining calm when being criticised. Football referees have it, police officers have it, teachers have it, politicians have it.
But a lot of them don't have it to begin with. They learn it, gradually and painfully.
What, if anything, has Sunak got in his CV for that?
Respond don't React. I've had lessons on that and it's very powerful if you can master it. Which I haven't btw (as people here will have noticed).
Farage is brilliant at this. At remaining unruffled. See his confrontation with that deeply annoying young woman on I’m A Celeb. She was stupidly offensive, he stayed calm, polite, lucid, and amiable. And won over quite a few viewers
The Tories really do need him as leader
You're trying to test my "Respond don't React" credentials with this, aren't you?
And I've passed.
It can go too far though. Throughout my career (indeed right back to primary school) the regular feedback has been that I look like I don't really care. At its best it's translated as calm and unruffled in a crisis, at its worst it's, well, he doesn't care. The most flattering version is "Goweresque".
We've had a few thin skinned and easily ruffled politicians recently: Boris, Corbyn and Sunak in particular plus Swinson. Plus Trump of course. A few genuinely good at responding not reacting, including Farage but also Salmond, Cameron, Gove, Starmer (so far) and Cable. And elsewhere Macron, Merkel and Biden. But Osborne never looked like he cared enough, Kwarteng's downfall was at least partly for similar reasons and this was also a particular problem with a number of Tory ministers back in the 1990s.
More recently a new type has entered the fray: the robot. Thick skinned but too mechanical to be Goweresque.
The tell with Sir Keir is his Patridge-esquesmirk when the interviewer asks him an awkward question more than once. Next time it’s a telling off
"Outrageous bias for Sky to post an edited version of a clip which cuts out the bit where Rishi Sunak utters the brilliant line "We have resolved *all* of the industrial action in the NHS, apart from the junior doctors who are still not saying yes"."
How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?
if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?
Hmmm
It would heavily depend on whether those themes you mention - which are largely boomer themes - get handed down to the next generation of elderly voters which by then will include a large chunk of GenX.
European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
Yes I agree. They need to copy Le Pen in the way she rejuvenated the French right
The young are voting Le Pen in extraordinary numbers
Le Pen's pulled off the extraordinary feat of going from being a political pariah to cultivating almost a mother of the nation image. She should be the favourite to win the next presidential election.
Yes. I think she’s going to win (as things stand - we are a loooooong way from the next POTFR elex)
She will win as Meloni won in Italy. I cannot see the French voting for another young smooth male gay enarque, they already had macron and he’s not popular
All of Europe is swinging right. Its quite the conundrum for lefty Remoaners
France: The government coalition Ensemble (RE) fell to 17% in the latest Ifop European Parliament election poll. This is the lowest poll result recorded for the coalition since December 2018."
Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.
But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.
At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...
Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.
*as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
I agree.
On topic, I think this is QTWTAIY. It'd take an unexpected incident of some sort for him to not run now.
The question is wrongly framed. It's not about 'not running'; it's about 'stopping running'.
I don't think Trump is anything like a slam-dunk win. The US economy is performing fairly strongly and Trump can still prove himself so unfit for the job as to motivate plenty of people uninspired by Biden against him. Both Biden and Trump are worse candidates than they were four years ago; the winner will be the one who has visibly declined least - and that's more than just a physical question. At the moment, it's a toss-up.
On topic, is Biden too old, I would only offer personal experience. At 81, in 2019, I was going to the gym …… not doing anything too strenuous, but going……. walking 2-3 mile walks, and active in several local organisations. Now at 85, going on 86 I’m using a zimmer frame in the house and either a wheelchair or a walking aid outside, depending on how far …… 25 yards or more.
The election will all be about Trump. If Biden stands, Democrats who do not approve of Biden will still vote for him because they are more anti-Trump. Biden's approval ratings don't tell us much. It's like Starmer's approval rating which don't matter much when the next UK election is all removing the Tories.
So IF Trump gets the nomination (90%) and IF Michelle refuses to stand (90%) then Biden will stand and beat Trump (80%).
IF Trump gets the nomination (90%) and IF Michelle agrees to stand (10%) then she beats Trump (95%).
If Trump does not get the nomination (10%) then Nikki Haley will get it (90%). In this case Biden WILL step down (80%) and will be replaced by Harris (80%) who will then lose to Haley (80%).
So a 16% chance that Trump becomes President and a 24% chance that it's a Republican President.
Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.
But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.
At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...
Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.
*as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
Er, it’s quite obvious
Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central
I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”
That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Would you care for a bet, winnings to charity? Bet void if its not Trump vs Biden or if a 3rd party candidate wins.
I'll pay £50 to charity of your choice if I lose, you pay £100 to MSF if I win. I'm Biden, you're Trump.
Thing I really don't get about US opinion is that Trump is not a new exciting unknown quantity. He was president for 4 years during which he did bugger all apart from fall out with most of his close associates, one after the other. We are always told of the danger when politicians over-promise and then nothing changes - look at the red wall now - yet that's exactly what he did and his approval ratings whilst still poor by historical standards are no worse than when he ran first time. He didn't build the wall, he didn't restore the rust belt, and he was punished heavily in that area in particular in 2020.
The sorts of chaotic scenes we saw in his Whitehouse and afterwards, culminating in the Four Seasons Total Landscaping, would have sunk any Tory or Labour leader without trace. Yet here we are.
That's why I'm still expecting the incumbent to win, but Trump makes me doubt my own judgment because I worry I do not remotely understand the American mind.
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Trump's numbers with black men, for example, are higher than ever.
And Hispanics. And Biden is losing young lefty urban people coz he’s so pro Israel
Could be a perfect storm brewing to create Trump 2.0
If it comes down to Trump v Biden (and presuming Trump has avoided a criminal conviction at that point) then Trump wins. And the Dems will have brought it all on themselves with their feeble inability to tell Sleepy Joe to go sleep in the spare room
And, like @Richard_Tyndall Please feel free to mock me when I am proved horribly wrong!
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Trump's numbers with black men, for example, are higher than ever.
And Hispanics. And Biden is losing young lefty urban people coz he’s so pro Israel
Could be a perfect storm brewing to create Trump 2.0
If it comes down to Trump v Biden (and presuming Trump has avoided a criminal conviction at that point) then Trump wins. And the Dems will have brought it all on themselves with their feeble inability to tell Sleepy Joe to go sleep in the spare room
And, like @Richard_Tyndall Please feel free to mock me when I am proved horribly wrong!
I will. Bookmarked.
Fair
But I reserve my right to change my mind before the actual election. Events, dear boy
Eg a massive war in the middle east or Eastern Europe or taiwan would change everything (god knows how). And all are; unfortunately, quite possible
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Would you care for a bet, winnings to charity? Bet void if its not Trump vs Biden or if a 3rd party candidate wins.
I'll pay £50 to charity of your choice if I lose, you pay £100 to MSF if I win. I'm Biden, you're Trump.
Thing I really don't get about US opinion is that Trump is not a new exciting unknown quantity. He was president for 4 years during which he did bugger all apart from fall out with most of his close associates, one after the other. We are always told of the danger when politicians over-promise and then nothing changes - look at the red wall now - yet that's exactly what he did and his approval ratings whilst still poor by historical standards are no worse than when he ran first time. He didn't build the wall, he didn't restore the rust belt, and he was punished heavily in that area in particular in 2020.
The sorts of chaotic scenes we saw in his Whitehouse and afterwards, culminating in the Four Seasons Total Landscaping, would have sunk any Tory or Labour leader without trace. Yet here we are.
That's why I'm still expecting the incumbent to win, but Trump makes me doubt my own judgment because I worry I do not remotely understand the American mind.
I’ve travelled widely in America this last two years. Two long road trips. Meeting lots of people
The unnerving moment is when you encounter the educated, funny; intelligent Trump voter. They readily admit - yes he’s a twat, he’s a narcissist, a misogynist, all of that - but then they say, with a dark frown “the others are even worse”
And it’s not easy to contradict. Because the woke American left IS awful and Biden is deeply compromised in multiple ways
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Would you care for a bet, winnings to charity? Bet void if its not Trump vs Biden or if a 3rd party candidate wins.
I'll pay £50 to charity of your choice if I lose, you pay £100 to MSF if I win. I'm Biden, you're Trump.
Thing I really don't get about US opinion is that Trump is not a new exciting unknown quantity. He was president for 4 years during which he did bugger all apart from fall out with most of his close associates, one after the other. We are always told of the danger when politicians over-promise and then nothing changes - look at the red wall now - yet that's exactly what he did and his approval ratings whilst still poor by historical standards are no worse than when he ran first time. He didn't build the wall, he didn't restore the rust belt, and he was punished heavily in that area in particular in 2020.
The sorts of chaotic scenes we saw in his Whitehouse and afterwards, culminating in the Four Seasons Total Landscaping, would have sunk any Tory or Labour leader without trace. Yet here we are.
That's why I'm still expecting the incumbent to win, but Trump makes me doubt my own judgment because I worry I do not remotely understand the American mind.
I’ve travelled widely in America this last two years. Two long road trips. Meeting lots of people
The unnerving moment is when you encounter the educated, funny; intelligent Trump voter. They readily admit - yes he’s a twat, he’s a narcissist, a misogynist, all of that - but then they say, with a dark frown “the others are even worse”
And it’s not easy to contradict. Because the woke American left IS awful and Biden is deeply compromised in multiple ways
If Trump wins a lot of us might not be visiting the US again for a while.
As a reminder I am taking the mean average of six polling companies which poll each week - Savanta, Deltapoll, YouGov, Techne, WeThink (Omnisis) and Redfield&Wilton. This should balance out house effects, reduce variances and enable data to be compared on a consistent basis.
Since the last average data towards the end of December we have Conservatives -0.8%. Labour +2.7%, Lib Dems -1.2%, Green -.5% and UKIP -.4%.
Conservatives are at their lowest since October 2022, Labour are back up to 45% which they have been around most of last year until starting to fall back in November and the Lib Dems have reversed their gains since the 2023 local elections. UKIP are still at their strongest whilst the Greens have remained consistent.
I agree that he will stand if Trump is the GOP nominee. If the SC ruled that Trump was not eligible (highly unlikely in my view) he may well feel that he has done his duty and stand down.
He has been a very successful President. Although there is a lot of gloom and doom in the media the economic performance of the US economy throughout his time has been outstanding. He has made real progress in fixing dilapidated infrastructure. He has been resolute, and rightly so, on both Ukraine and Taiwan.
His biggest problem has been immigration but as we know all too well that is a serious headache for any incumbent government in every western country. If he was 20 years younger he would, in my view, be a shoo in for a second term.
He has massively increased the budget deficit
On 31/12/21 (post Covid) government debt was $29.5 trillion
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
That's not my favourite post of the day, Richard.
Its not mine either. As I said, I am even more opposed to a second Trump presicdency than I was to the first one. But I think Biden is a liability, not because of anything he has done wrong especially, but because there are just too many open goals with him, no matter how unfair some of them might be.
It is pretty much immaterial to me who is US president next January as long as it isn't Trump (and possibly DeSantis)
Ditto your last sentence. Donald Trump must not get back in. If it were happen I'd be devastated. Not because of the betting (although I'd lose a shedload) or his policies, it's HIM.
The presidency of the US has massive global resonance and this guy is an appalling individual without a single redeeming quality. He (openly) appeals to the worst in people. If he triumphs those negative aspects of our nature (which we all have to varying degrees) will have been well and truly validated.
Mean-Spiritedness Rules Ok. Wilful Stupidity Rules Ok. Mendacity Rules Ok.
It doesn't bear thinking about. And if that's Trump Derangement Syndrome, fine. I recommend catching it.
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Would you care for a bet, winnings to charity? Bet void if its not Trump vs Biden or if a 3rd party candidate wins.
I'll pay £50 to charity of your choice if I lose, you pay £100 to MSF if I win. I'm Biden, you're Trump.
Thing I really don't get about US opinion is that Trump is not a new exciting unknown quantity. He was president for 4 years during which he did bugger all apart from fall out with most of his close associates, one after the other. We are always told of the danger when politicians over-promise and then nothing changes - look at the red wall now - yet that's exactly what he did and his approval ratings whilst still poor by historical standards are no worse than when he ran first time. He didn't build the wall, he didn't restore the rust belt, and he was punished heavily in that area in particular in 2020.
The sorts of chaotic scenes we saw in his Whitehouse and afterwards, culminating in the Four Seasons Total Landscaping, would have sunk any Tory or Labour leader without trace. Yet here we are.
That's why I'm still expecting the incumbent to win, but Trump makes me doubt my own judgment because I worry I do not remotely understand the American mind.
I’ve travelled widely in America this last two years. Two long road trips. Meeting lots of people
The unnerving moment is when you encounter the educated, funny; intelligent Trump voter. They readily admit - yes he’s a twat, he’s a narcissist, a misogynist, all of that - but then they say, with a dark frown “the others are even worse”
And it’s not easy to contradict. Because the woke American left IS awful and Biden is deeply compromised in multiple ways
If Trump wins a lot of us might not be visiting the US again for a while.
Why? Was America literally uninhabitable from 2016-2020 when Trump was in power? Were they shooting old ladies on sight?
This hyperbole about Trump, from the left, is actively harmful for the Democrat cause. Trump has been in power. America did not collapse
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Would you care for a bet, winnings to charity? Bet void if its not Trump vs Biden or if a 3rd party candidate wins.
I'll pay £50 to charity of your choice if I lose, you pay £100 to MSF if I win. I'm Biden, you're Trump.
Thing I really don't get about US opinion is that Trump is not a new exciting unknown quantity. He was president for 4 years during which he did bugger all apart from fall out with most of his close associates, one after the other. We are always told of the danger when politicians over-promise and then nothing changes - look at the red wall now - yet that's exactly what he did and his approval ratings whilst still poor by historical standards are no worse than when he ran first time. He didn't build the wall, he didn't restore the rust belt, and he was punished heavily in that area in particular in 2020.
The sorts of chaotic scenes we saw in his Whitehouse and afterwards, culminating in the Four Seasons Total Landscaping, would have sunk any Tory or Labour leader without trace. Yet here we are.
That's why I'm still expecting the incumbent to win, but Trump makes me doubt my own judgment because I worry I do not remotely understand the American mind.
I’ve travelled widely in America this last two years. Two long road trips. Meeting lots of people
The unnerving moment is when you encounter the educated, funny; intelligent Trump voter. They readily admit - yes he’s a twat, he’s a narcissist, a misogynist, all of that - but then they say, with a dark frown “the others are even worse”
And it’s not easy to contradict. Because the woke American left IS awful and Biden is deeply compromised in multiple ways
If Trump wins a lot of us might not be visiting the US again for a while.
Why? Was America literally uninhabitable from 2016-2020 when Trump was in power? Were they shooting old ladies on sight?
This hyperbole about Trump, from the left, is actively harmful for the Democrat cause. Trump has been in power. America did not collapse
It's going to be completely different this time. We have been told this time and time again by those who are working with him.
How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?
if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?
Hmmm
It would heavily depend on whether those themes you mention - which are largely boomer themes - get handed down to the next generation of elderly voters which by then will include a large chunk of GenX.
European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
Yes I agree. They need to copy Le Pen in the way she rejuvenated the French right
The young are voting Le Pen in extraordinary numbers
There's a basic difference between us and continental Europe though in that the struggles Western nations are facing are, there, associated with a failed social democratic establishment.
Here younger people associate them with with a failure of a right that has been in power for 14 years and got policies through that at one point were beyond its wildest dreams but are seen as having failed even on their own terms.
So people kicking out at that here trend left. There they trend right.
Doubling down on that with something edgier is therefore unlikely to help. At least for now. In 10-15 years if we're still in a funk that may change. For the moment though people like Braverman, Farage re seen as part of, perhaps a lot of, the problem.
I’m not sure - it was a bit of an awkward laugh - difficult to tell what triggered it in her phrasing (her “not literally”) seemed a little irritated - but he wasn’t particularly offensive. If anything it was the walking away mid sentence that was ruder.
Edit: watching it again he looks over her shoulder before laughing. I wonder if someone made a snarky comment in the background that we don’t hear.
I agree that he will stand if Trump is the GOP nominee. If the SC ruled that Trump was not eligible (highly unlikely in my view) he may well feel that he has done his duty and stand down.
He has been a very successful President. Although there is a lot of gloom and doom in the media the economic performance of the US economy throughout his time has been outstanding. He has made real progress in fixing dilapidated infrastructure. He has been resolute, and rightly so, on both Ukraine and Taiwan.
His biggest problem has been immigration but as we know all too well that is a serious headache for any incumbent government in every western country. If he was 20 years younger he would, in my view, be a shoo in for a second term.
He has massively increased the budget deficit
On 31/12/21 (post Covid) government debt was $29.5 trillion
As of 31/12/23 $34 trillion
That’s a lot of money in just 2 years.
It's a 15% increase. Trump increased the debt from $19.5 trillion to $26.9 trillion in four years - that's a 37% increase.
It's not going to be significant in the result, one way or the other.
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Would you care for a bet, winnings to charity? Bet void if its not Trump vs Biden or if a 3rd party candidate wins.
I'll pay £50 to charity of your choice if I lose, you pay £100 to MSF if I win. I'm Biden, you're Trump.
Thing I really don't get about US opinion is that Trump is not a new exciting unknown quantity. He was president for 4 years during which he did bugger all apart from fall out with most of his close associates, one after the other. We are always told of the danger when politicians over-promise and then nothing changes - look at the red wall now - yet that's exactly what he did and his approval ratings whilst still poor by historical standards are no worse than when he ran first time. He didn't build the wall, he didn't restore the rust belt, and he was punished heavily in that area in particular in 2020.
The sorts of chaotic scenes we saw in his Whitehouse and afterwards, culminating in the Four Seasons Total Landscaping, would have sunk any Tory or Labour leader without trace. Yet here we are.
That's why I'm still expecting the incumbent to win, but Trump makes me doubt my own judgment because I worry I do not remotely understand the American mind.
I’ve travelled widely in America this last two years. Two long road trips. Meeting lots of people
The unnerving moment is when you encounter the educated, funny; intelligent Trump voter. They readily admit - yes he’s a twat, he’s a narcissist, a misogynist, all of that - but then they say, with a dark frown “the others are even worse”
And it’s not easy to contradict. Because the woke American left IS awful and Biden is deeply compromised in multiple ways
If Trump wins a lot of us might not be visiting the US again for a while.
Why? Was America literally uninhabitable from 2016-2020 when Trump was in power? Were they shooting old ladies on sight?
This hyperbole about Trump, from the left, is actively harmful for the Democrat cause. Trump has been in power. America did not collapse
Most countries that collapse, or fall into violence or civil war or similar trauma don't do so overnight. The process usually takes years or even decades to come about. Some crisis may precipitate it but the underlying factors invariably are visible long before.
America is dangerously close to such a place now. More so than it was in the early 1930s or pre-WW1 era; much more so than during civil rights. Not as much as in 1860 but more than in 1850. Three of those eras passed without revolution or war (though not without much lower-level violence); one did not. Would it survive another four years of Trump and emerge the country we know now? The percentage call - the projection - is that it comes out even more divided in many ways but without flashing red lights. But history rarely runs in straight lines: up, down or level. I certainly wouldn't be confident it makes it unscathed.
On topic, yes. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in cloud-cuckoo land.
Not only is he going to run again, he *is* running again. The race has been live for months now, votes are already being cast, filing deadlines for many states have passed and if Biden withdrew now it would cause merry havoc. If he planned not to run again, he would have said so no later than October 2023 and probably a few months earlier.
The only way Biden departs the race now is if there's a serious health issue; more than just looking a bit doddery. I'm talking a heart attack or stroke or death or terminal whatever; something like that. It's too late for serious candidates to enter the race* and so if Biden did quit, it'd have to be some kind of convention fudge, which'd look bad and leave the field to Trump for months, assuming he remains in the race - which health and/or judges and juries permitting, he will.
Biden's future as a candidate is not contingent on Trump's. The race is too far gone for that now.
* Other than as shadow candidates for the convention, if, say, Biden did have a major health incident. But they'd be out of the primaries.
Which, as I said, sadly means the next President will be Trump.
Why so confident Trump wins?
There's a long way to go before November, Biden won last time and the economy is going well.
If its Biden Trump, I make Biden a slight favourite.
Because I have been closely following the news from the US, talking to friends who are Democrats and who are losing hope, and also seeing countless reports about sections of the population who should be solidly Democrat who are turning away from Biden en masse. That is before you even start to look at the poll leads Trump is building up.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
Would you care for a bet, winnings to charity? Bet void if its not Trump vs Biden or if a 3rd party candidate wins.
I'll pay £50 to charity of your choice if I lose, you pay £100 to MSF if I win. I'm Biden, you're Trump.
Thing I really don't get about US opinion is that Trump is not a new exciting unknown quantity. He was president for 4 years during which he did bugger all apart from fall out with most of his close associates, one after the other. We are always told of the danger when politicians over-promise and then nothing changes - look at the red wall now - yet that's exactly what he did and his approval ratings whilst still poor by historical standards are no worse than when he ran first time. He didn't build the wall, he didn't restore the rust belt, and he was punished heavily in that area in particular in 2020.
The sorts of chaotic scenes we saw in his Whitehouse and afterwards, culminating in the Four Seasons Total Landscaping, would have sunk any Tory or Labour leader without trace. Yet here we are.
That's why I'm still expecting the incumbent to win, but Trump makes me doubt my own judgment because I worry I do not remotely understand the American mind.
One notable thing which could make Democrats more optimistic is that the Trump circus has until now been much less obtrusive - and it helps him as those undecided have forgotten just how tiring and ludicrous the Trump presidency was.
That may change as things switch into campaign mode and his ramblings get blanket coverage again.
How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?
if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?
Hmmm
It would heavily depend on whether those themes you mention - which are largely boomer themes - get handed down to the next generation of elderly voters which by then will include a large chunk of GenX.
European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
Yes I agree. They need to copy Le Pen in the way she rejuvenated the French right
The young are voting Le Pen in extraordinary numbers
There's a basic difference between us and continental Europe though in that the struggles Western nations are facing are, there, associated with a failed social democratic establishment.
Here younger people associate them with with a failure of a right that has been in power for 14 years and got policies through that at one point were beyond its wildest dreams but are seen as having failed even on their own terms.
So people kicking out at that here trend left. There they trend right.
Doubling down on that with something edgier is therefore unlikely to help. At least for now. In 10-15 years if we're still in a funk that may change. For the moment though people like Braverman, Farage re seen as part of, perhaps a lot of, the problem.
This is correct.
People are reacting against the party in power. And here it is a party of the center right in power, and therefore voters will tend to swing left. While in Europe it is mostly parties of the center left in power, and therefore the swing is to the right.
With that said, there are clearly some - maybe even many - think that the current lot have failed because they are not right wing enough. Hence the rise of Reform. Hence the love for Farage.
The reality, of course, is that the challenges facing most developed nations will be there irrespective of the hue of the party in power.
I think that’s worse than the bigoted woman moment. At least Brown was caught on mic afterwards and came across as reasonable to her face, and stayed to listen to what she had to say.
Rishi's inexperience at retail politics is going to be horrible to watch come the election.
There's an art to remaining calm when being criticised. Football referees have it, police officers have it, teachers have it, politicians have it.
But a lot of them don't have it to begin with. They learn it, gradually and painfully.
What, if anything, has Sunak got in his CV for that?
Respond don't React. I've had lessons on that and it's very powerful if you can master it. Which I haven't btw (as people here will have noticed).
Farage is brilliant at this. At remaining unruffled. See his confrontation with that deeply annoying young woman on I’m A Celeb. She was stupidly offensive, he stayed calm, polite, lucid, and amiable. And won over quite a few viewers
The Tories really do need him as leader
You're trying to test my "Respond don't React" credentials with this, aren't you?
And I've passed.
It can go too far though. Throughout my career (indeed right back to primary school) the regular feedback has been that I look like I don't really care. At its best it's translated as calm and unruffled in a crisis, at its worst it's, well, he doesn't care. The most flattering version is "Goweresque".
We've had a few thin skinned and easily ruffled politicians recently: Boris, Corbyn and Sunak in particular plus Swinson. Plus Trump of course. A few genuinely good at responding not reacting, including Farage but also Salmond, Cameron, Gove, Starmer (so far) and Cable. And elsewhere Macron, Merkel and Biden. But Osborne never looked like he cared enough, Kwarteng's downfall was at least partly for similar reasons and this was also a particular problem with a number of Tory ministers back in the 1990s.
More recently a new type has entered the fray: the robot. Thick skinned but too mechanical to be Goweresque.
Interesting post - I agree, especially on Gove who has always been great at that (and has a deserved reputation for always being pleasant and polite to his juniors and civil servants), though I guess he also illustrates why that in itself is not enough.
I think we'll see on Sirkier. I would imagine he is getting some expensive and high-quality media training, and his performances at PMQs (a good testing ground) have become much more confident and breezy. Different game in power.
Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.
But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.
At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...
Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.
*as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
Er, it’s quite obvious
Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central
I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”
That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
This is a textbook example of believing one's own attack lines and as a result misunderstanding the mindset of someone you disagree with. It's fine, I don't like Corbyn either and he won't care what you think of him, but if you want to have any insight into the man and people like him you'll not get very far with this kind of analysis.
How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?
if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?
Hmmm
It would heavily depend on whether those themes you mention - which are largely boomer themes - get handed down to the next generation of elderly voters which by then will include a large chunk of GenX.
European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
Yes I agree. They need to copy Le Pen in the way she rejuvenated the French right
The young are voting Le Pen in extraordinary numbers
There's a basic difference between us and continental Europe though in that the struggles Western nations are facing are, there, associated with a failed social democratic establishment.
Here younger people associate them with with a failure of a right that has been in power for 14 years and got policies through that at one point were beyond its wildest dreams but are seen as having failed even on their own terms.
So people kicking out at that here trend left. There they trend right.
Doubling down on that with something edgier is therefore unlikely to help. At least for now. In 10-15 years if we're still in a funk that may change. For the moment though people like Braverman, Farage re seen as part of, perhaps a lot of, the problem.
This is correct.
People are reacting against the party in power. And here it is a party of the center right in power, and therefore voters will tend to swing left. While in Europe it is mostly parties of the center left in power, and therefore the swing is to the right.
With that said, there are clearly some - maybe even many - think that the current lot have failed because they are not right wing enough. Hence the rise of Reform. Hence the love for Farage.
The reality, of course, is that the challenges facing most developed nations will be there irrespective of the hue of the party in power.
That's not true. If the far right got in we'd have a whole new set of challenges to deal with.
How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?
if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?
Hmmm
It would heavily depend on whether those themes you mention - which are largely boomer themes - get handed down to the next generation of elderly voters which by then will include a large chunk of GenX.
European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
Yes I agree. They need to copy Le Pen in the way she rejuvenated the French right
The young are voting Le Pen in extraordinary numbers
There's a basic difference between us and continental Europe though in that the struggles Western nations are facing are, there, associated with a failed social democratic establishment.
Here younger people associate them with with a failure of a right that has been in power for 14 years and got policies through that at one point were beyond its wildest dreams but are seen as having failed even on their own terms.
So people kicking out at that here trend left. There they trend right.
Doubling down on that with something edgier is therefore unlikely to help. At least for now. In 10-15 years if we're still in a funk that may change. For the moment though people like Braverman, Farage re seen as part of, perhaps a lot of, the problem.
But this is a misdiagnosis. We might have had a right wing government on paper, but in practice we have been at the extreme end of an experiment in governing by a dehumanised system of 'rights'. The Tories have failed completely, not because they were too right wing but because they didn't challenge the framework that had been entrenched under Tony Blair.
There was a good example of the pathologies of the system yesterday where someone documented his attempts to track down his mother after she was admitted to hospital and was met with Kafkaesque obstruction.
Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.
But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.
At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...
Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.
*as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
Corbyn was also 10 years older by 2019 than in 2017. iirc there was speculation he might have had a stroke. He was irritable and angry rather than affable and calm. He seemed to have lost the knack of directly addressing the viewer on television. (On-topic for this thread!)
Comments
Why do they keep putting Sunak in direct contact with real people? They hate him and he hates them. It just doesn't work.
Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?
Leader satisfaction ratings
@IpsosUK
Dec 23. Sunak.
Sat 21%
Dissat 69%
Net: -48
Jul 22. Johnson.
Sat 24%
Dissat 69%
Net: -45
Oct 22 Truss
Sat 16%
Dissat 67%
Net: -51
Dec 19 Corbyn
Sat 24%
Dissat 68%
Net: -44
He just looks like he couldn’t give a toss and starts walking off and then suddenly realizes oh dear this looks bad .
The Tories are still headed for a terrible loss, but this means less-than-nothing in that context
I don't know if you were implying it or not, but it is definitely not the point at which half the population get dementia.
Sunak can be criticised for a lot of things but not this
It does reveal a tenet of conservative lines to take on the NHS though: “the waiting lists are all the fault of striking junior doctors”.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/shes-a-killer-trump-eyes-rep-elise-stefanik-as-a-potential-vp-pick/ar-AA1n94qp
DYOR
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/science-environment-68019846
Some of us have been saying that for over a year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJcpuC-fk7A&vl=en-GB
If Trump fails to get the GOP nomination and goes Independent, all the better for Biden
(bit of 'high table' from me there)
Let's hope Richi keeps using it...
Classic problem with social media. Partial Sunak clip is circulated. We all react to that. Then the full clip appears. Shows completely different context. But people have to be tribal. So they have to say "well, it's just as bad". It isn't. It's totally different.
https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1748350984558989787?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
First, the laugh after the lady says "back to how it was". Even if that was because of an absolute zinger from someone else in the crowd, it betrays someone not properly listening.
Second, he does walk away mid conversation. The lady has to follow him to finish her point. Again, you just don't do that if you are intentionally listening.
He retrieves it somewhat with the handshake at the end, but that doesn't completely save him.
And if some of the criticisms of him are overegged, tough. We should be able to expect better of our politicians.
(It doesn't help that "Sunak thinks improving the NHS is really funny" taps into the collective prejudice about him.)
But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
I am happy to withdraw it as a serious point, in any context
However, and quite seriously, I think Biden already has some kind of dementia, senility, call it what you will. I’ve seen too many videos of him behaving quite bizarrely, and cluelessly, and looking horribly like aged relatives of mine - with dementia. the idea it is just because “he has a stammer” is fucking ridiculous
Americans are also seeing this. It matters
At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...
Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
The Tories really do need him as leader
But their MPs and members don't want that. They'd either choose another Sunak - superficially competent but too weak to ask tough questions and take on the headbangers. Or another Truss - a loony who'll try and give the right everything it wants without thinking through the consequences.
Maybe they are all on holiday, doesn’t feel like it. Feels like they live here and have agreeable Iives in the tropical warmth. Like an Anglophone version of those happy old Sicilian men you see in the nicer piazzas gossiping outside a charming cafe, and eating cannoli. Probably ex Mafia, but all passions spent, all feuds defused
There are worse fates, much much worse
And I've passed.
But also making a serious point. Farage is a good politician; he’s good at the people stuff. Not quite as good as Boris but he has a certain charm and poise, even a bit of rizz
Compared to Sunak or Starmer he’s Thatcher crossed with a young JFK with a dash of Bishop Desmond Tutu
if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?
Hmmm
We've had a few thin skinned and easily ruffled politicians recently: Boris, Corbyn and Sunak in particular plus Swinson. Plus Trump of course. A few genuinely good at responding not reacting, including Farage but also Salmond, Cameron, Gove, Starmer (so far) and Cable. And elsewhere Macron, Merkel and Biden. But Osborne never looked like he cared enough, Kwarteng's downfall was at least partly for similar reasons and this was also a particular problem with a number of Tory ministers back in the 1990s.
More recently a new type has entered the fray: the robot. Thick skinned but too mechanical to be Goweresque.
European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
...The Japanese attempt to land on the Moon just 100m from its target is "unprecedented", says Dr Emma Gatti, a former Nasa scientist and editor-in-chief of SpaceWatch Global.
Most spacecraft touch down kilometres away from their intended target, she tells the BBC.
Apollo 11 - the spacecraft that landed the first humans on the moon - landed around 6.5 kilometres from the target, which is "a bit like if you wanted to land in Buckingham Palace and you arrive in Brixton," she says.
She adds that it would be "historic" for Japan - a country much smaller than the United States or China - to join them in becoming only the fifth country to land on the Moon...
Farage is (or can be) formidable. He'd get the far right to 18%, I think. He has the 'touch'. To illustrate how much, take me and him. I hate his politics and have a healthy contempt for all the people he hangs with (and tbh most people who'd vote for him), yet I used to really rate him as a politician and quite like him too. That only stopped when he disappeared up Donald Trump's arse. That wrecked him for me. Plus his relentless grifting these days. So now, thankfully, it's all aligned and I cannot abide him on any level, but I was for a time conflicted.
And I still prefer him to the absolutely ghastly "Boris".
Starmer/Sunak? It's a mistake to bracket them imo. Starmer is way way better.
Trump wil be an unmitigated disaster for the US and for the rest of the world but I am utterly convinced that if his opponent in November is Joe Biden then Trump wins.
Not for the first time, I hope I am completely wrong on this and that you can say 'I told you so' in December.
In other news, I have lost my job as a lifeguard.
Which is probably a big asset for a minor party leader or single issue campaigner as you generate enthusiasm where mainstream politicians don't.
But is probably not for a leader of the big two where your success or failure depends on not upsetting enough people to keep a wide coalition of voters together.
Which is why, although wooden, Starmer has been successful to date. He gets that part of the job and that it is more important than making a limited number of people very enthusiastic. In fact it's part of why he's a bit wooden. There's a calculation and ruthlessness in not being seduced by immediate applause of what some people want to hear.
It is pretty much immaterial to me who is US president next January as long as it isn't Trump (and possibly DeSantis)
The young are voting Le Pen in extraordinary numbers
We Think:
Lab 48%
Con 23%
RefUK 10%
LD 9%
Green 5%
SNP 3%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_results
I'll pay £50 to charity of your choice if I lose, you pay £100 to MSF if I win. I'm Biden, you're Trump.
On topic, I think this is QTWTAIY. It'd take an unexpected incident of some sort for him to not run now.
Could be a perfect storm brewing to create Trump 2.0
I agree with @Richard_Tyndall
If it comes down to Trump v Biden (and presuming Trump has avoided a criminal conviction at that point) then Trump wins. And the Dems will have brought it all on themselves with their feeble inability to tell Sleepy Joe to go sleep in the spare room
And, like @Richard_Tyndall Please feel free to mock me when I am proved horribly wrong!
"Outrageous bias for Sky to post an edited version of a clip which cuts out the bit where Rishi Sunak utters the brilliant line "We have resolved *all* of the industrial action in the NHS, apart from the junior doctors who are still not saying yes"."
https://x.com/thhamilton/status/1748371819055256000?s=20
https://x.com/skynews/status/1748037567335825492
"Are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they going to continue? Yes."
US President Joe Biden responds after being asked whether airstrikes in Yemen are working.
She will win as Meloni won in Italy. I cannot see the French voting for another young smooth male gay enarque, they already had macron and he’s not popular
All of Europe is swinging right. Its quite the conundrum for lefty Remoaners
@EuropeElects
France: The government coalition Ensemble (RE) fell to 17% in the latest Ifop European Parliament election poll. This is the lowest poll result recorded for the coalition since December 2018."
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1748053414364303619
*as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
I don't think Trump is anything like a slam-dunk win. The US economy is performing fairly strongly and Trump can still prove himself so unfit for the job as to motivate plenty of people uninspired by Biden against him. Both Biden and Trump are worse candidates than they were four years ago; the winner will be the one who has visibly declined least - and that's more than just a physical question. At the moment, it's a toss-up.
Now at 85, going on 86 I’m using a zimmer frame in the house and either a wheelchair or a walking aid outside, depending on how far …… 25 yards or more.
The election will all be about Trump. If Biden stands, Democrats who do not approve of Biden will still vote for him because they are more anti-Trump. Biden's approval ratings don't tell us much. It's like Starmer's approval rating which don't matter much when the next UK election is all removing the Tories.
So IF Trump gets the nomination (90%) and IF Michelle refuses to stand (90%) then Biden will stand and beat Trump (80%).
IF Trump gets the nomination (90%) and IF Michelle agrees to stand (10%) then she beats Trump (95%).
If Trump does not get the nomination (10%) then Nikki Haley will get it (90%). In this case Biden WILL step down (80%) and will be replaced by Harris (80%) who will then lose to Haley (80%).
So a 16% chance that Trump becomes President and a 24% chance that it's a Republican President.
Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central
I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”
That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
The sorts of chaotic scenes we saw in his Whitehouse and afterwards, culminating in the Four Seasons Total Landscaping, would have sunk any Tory or Labour leader without trace. Yet here we are.
That's why I'm still expecting the incumbent to win, but Trump makes me doubt my own judgment because I worry I do not remotely understand the American mind.
But I reserve my right to change my mind before the actual election. Events, dear boy
Eg a massive war in the middle east or Eastern Europe or taiwan would change everything (god knows how). And all are; unfortunately, quite possible
The unnerving moment is when you encounter the educated, funny; intelligent Trump voter. They readily admit - yes he’s a twat, he’s a narcissist, a misogynist, all of that - but then they say, with a dark frown “the others are even worse”
And it’s not easy to contradict. Because the woke American left IS awful and Biden is deeply compromised in multiple ways
As a reminder I am taking the mean average of six polling companies which poll each week - Savanta, Deltapoll, YouGov, Techne, WeThink (Omnisis) and Redfield&Wilton. This should balance out house effects, reduce variances and enable data to be compared on a consistent basis.
Since the last average data towards the end of December we have Conservatives -0.8%. Labour +2.7%, Lib Dems -1.2%, Green -.5% and UKIP -.4%.
Conservatives are at their lowest since October 2022, Labour are back up to 45% which they have been around most of last year until starting to fall back in November and the Lib Dems have reversed their gains since the 2023 local elections. UKIP are still at their strongest whilst the Greens have remained consistent.
On 31/12/21 (post Covid) government debt was $29.5 trillion
As of 31/12/23 $34 trillion
That’s a lot of money in just 2 years.
The presidency of the US has massive global resonance and this guy is an appalling individual without a single redeeming quality. He (openly) appeals to the worst in people. If he triumphs those negative aspects of our nature (which we all have to varying degrees) will have been well and truly validated.
Mean-Spiritedness Rules Ok. Wilful Stupidity Rules Ok. Mendacity Rules Ok.
It doesn't bear thinking about. And if that's Trump Derangement Syndrome, fine. I recommend catching it.
This hyperbole about Trump, from the left, is actively harmful for the Democrat cause. Trump has been in power. America did not collapse
Here younger people associate them with with a failure of a right that has been in power for 14 years and got policies through that at one point were beyond its wildest dreams but are seen as having failed even on their own terms.
So people kicking out at that here trend left. There they trend right.
Doubling down on that with something edgier is therefore unlikely to help. At least for now. In 10-15 years if we're still in a funk that may change. For the moment though people like Braverman, Farage re seen as part of, perhaps a lot of, the problem.
Edit: watching it again he looks over her shoulder before laughing. I wonder if someone made a snarky comment in the background that we don’t hear.
Yes. Because SHE walked after him still talking at him. He literally turned his back on her. And the handshake? Offered by her.
If the PB Tories and fellow travellers think that looks good then we really are in for a painful election campaign.
Trump increased the debt from $19.5 trillion to $26.9 trillion in four years - that's a 37% increase.
It's not going to be significant in the result, one way or the other.
America is dangerously close to such a place now. More so than it was in the early 1930s or pre-WW1 era; much more so than during civil rights. Not as much as in 1860 but more than in 1850. Three of those eras passed without revolution or war (though not without much lower-level violence); one did not. Would it survive another four years of Trump and emerge the country we know now? The percentage call - the projection - is that it comes out even more divided in many ways but without flashing red lights. But history rarely runs in straight lines: up, down or level. I certainly wouldn't be confident it makes it unscathed.
That may change as things switch into campaign mode and his ramblings get blanket coverage again.
People are reacting against the party in power. And here it is a party of the center right in power, and therefore voters will tend to swing left. While in Europe it is mostly parties of the center left in power, and therefore the swing is to the right.
With that said, there are clearly some - maybe even many - think that the current lot have failed because they are not right wing enough. Hence the rise of Reform. Hence the love for Farage.
The reality, of course, is that the challenges facing most developed nations will be there irrespective of the hue of the party in power.
I think we'll see on Sirkier. I would imagine he is getting some expensive and high-quality media training, and his performances at PMQs (a good testing ground) have become much more confident and breezy. Different game in power.
There was a good example of the pathologies of the system yesterday where someone documented his attempts to track down his mother after she was admitted to hospital and was met with Kafkaesque obstruction.
https://x.com/classiccarguru1/status/1747858911347032074