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Is 81 year-old Biden really going to run again? – politicalbetting.com

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  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,992
    Apols if this has already been posted :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-68032233

    UK Covid inquiry: Nicola Sturgeon's Covid WhatsApp messages 'all deleted'

    All Nicola Sturgeon's WhatsApp messages during the pandemic appear to have been deleted, the Covid inquiry has heard.

    Jamie Dawson KC, counsel to the inquiry, said the former first minister appeared to "have retained no messages whatsoever".

    The hearing in Edinburgh was also told that her deputy John Swinney's WhatsApp messaging was set to auto-delete.

    Ms Sturgeon has previously said she has "nothing to hide" but not clarified if her WhatsApp messages were deleted.

    ---

    Guess that means the motorhome whatsapp messages have gone away too. Much equivalence, Much wow. I think it's the paucity of the alleged misdoings that depress me, more than than anything else. Steal a trillion dollars - sure, pigs in the clover. A 100k campervan, just.... eyerolll.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,127

    Today the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had a productive discussion on how we are delivering record funding for the NHS & cutting waiting lists while meeting members of the public.

    https://twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/1748366773806600331

    Has to be one of the worst public meetings a PM has had other than Brown's infamous one.

    Rishi Sunak is going to come severely unstuck on the campaign trail IMHO.

    He is factually wrong in that clip. October saw the first combined strike of Junior and Consultant doctors in NHS history.

    He also claimed that other groups had settled. That is not the case. The HCSA has rejected the Consultant offer* and the BMA are reporting their member ballot next week. I expect it will be rejected too. The SAS grades are yet to receive an offer and the RCN are in dispute still too.

    I don't know if he is misinformed or telling untruths deliberately, but neither bodes well for the campaign trail.

    *I voted to accept.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,992
    edited January 19
    Foxy said:

    Today the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had a productive discussion on how we are delivering record funding for the NHS & cutting waiting lists while meeting members of the public.

    https://twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/1748366773806600331

    Has to be one of the worst public meetings a PM has had other than Brown's infamous one.

    Rishi Sunak is going to come severely unstuck on the campaign trail IMHO.

    He is factually wrong in that clip. October saw the first combined strike of Junior and Consultant doctors in NHS history.

    He also claimed that other groups had settled. That is not the case. The HCSA has rejected the Consultant offer* and the BMA are reporting their member ballot next week. I expect it will be rejected too. The SAS grades are yet to receive an offer and the RCN are in dispute still too.

    I don't know if he is misinformed or telling untruths deliberately, but neither bodes well for the campaign trail.

    *I voted to accept.
    ... Apart from that, the 'small boats', and a few other minor details - he's basically on track though?

    #voterishi #voteshort
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    I don't think you are right about Michigan the large Arab population there hate Bidens stance on Gaza and Biden can't win it without the Arab vote.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Biden is scheduled to travel to Michigan at the end of the month to meet with Arab American voters.

    There is a problem - many are rejecting the invite to meet, while others have rebuffed outreach efforts.

    The meetings are in jeopardy, and currently looking like they won’t happen in Dearborn, which was the Biden team first and preferred choice.

    Don’t be surprised if this trip is “postponed due to scheduling.”

    Reality is starting to set in for many that our community won’t forgot about the genocide.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Biden is scheduled to travel to Michigan at the end of the month to meet with Arab American voters.

    There is a problem - many are rejecting the invite to meet, while others have rebuffed outreach efforts.

    The meetings are in jeopardy, and currently looking like they won’t happen in Dearborn, which was the Biden team first and preferred choice.

    Don’t be surprised if this trip is “postponed due to scheduling.”

    Reality is starting to set in for many that our community won’t forgot about the genocide.

    That might be the case but they’ll end up with Trump in the WH.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,127
    edited January 19
    nico679 said:

    Biden is scheduled to travel to Michigan at the end of the month to meet with Arab American voters.

    There is a problem - many are rejecting the invite to meet, while others have rebuffed outreach efforts.

    The meetings are in jeopardy, and currently looking like they won’t happen in Dearborn, which was the Biden team first and preferred choice.

    Don’t be surprised if this trip is “postponed due to scheduling.”

    Reality is starting to set in for many that our community won’t forgot about the genocide.

    That might be the case but they’ll end up with Trump in the WH.
    Trump or Biden, Sunak or Starmer. Those are the choices.

    Never has "none of the above" been more appealing, but it isn't on the menu.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,125
    They know that Trump put the embassy back in Jerusalem and announced it was the capital right?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,125
    ohnotnow said:

    Foxy said:

    Today the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had a productive discussion on how we are delivering record funding for the NHS & cutting waiting lists while meeting members of the public.

    https://twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/1748366773806600331

    Has to be one of the worst public meetings a PM has had other than Brown's infamous one.

    Rishi Sunak is going to come severely unstuck on the campaign trail IMHO.

    He is factually wrong in that clip. October saw the first combined strike of Junior and Consultant doctors in NHS history.

    He also claimed that other groups had settled. That is not the case. The HCSA has rejected the Consultant offer* and the BMA are reporting their member ballot next week. I expect it will be rejected too. The SAS grades are yet to receive an offer and the RCN are in dispute still too.

    I don't know if he is misinformed or telling untruths deliberately, but neither bodes well for the campaign trail.

    *I voted to accept.
    ... Apart from that, the 'small boats', and a few other minor details - he's basically on track though?

    #voterishi #voteshort
    That vid clip is one of the most egregious mansplaining items I have seen in a long, long time.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,705
    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    Biden is scheduled to travel to Michigan at the end of the month to meet with Arab American voters.

    There is a problem - many are rejecting the invite to meet, while others have rebuffed outreach efforts.

    The meetings are in jeopardy, and currently looking like they won’t happen in Dearborn, which was the Biden team first and preferred choice.

    Don’t be surprised if this trip is “postponed due to scheduling.”

    Reality is starting to set in for many that our community won’t forgot about the genocide.

    That might be the case but they’ll end up with Trump in the WH.
    Trump or Biden, Sunak or Starmer. Those are the choices.

    Never has "none of the above" been more appealing, but it isn't on the menu.
    What on Earth are you talking about? Do you remember Corbyn vs Johnson last time?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,127
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    Biden is scheduled to travel to Michigan at the end of the month to meet with Arab American voters.

    There is a problem - many are rejecting the invite to meet, while others have rebuffed outreach efforts.

    The meetings are in jeopardy, and currently looking like they won’t happen in Dearborn, which was the Biden team first and preferred choice.

    Don’t be surprised if this trip is “postponed due to scheduling.”

    Reality is starting to set in for many that our community won’t forgot about the genocide.

    That might be the case but they’ll end up with Trump in the WH.
    Trump or Biden, Sunak or Starmer. Those are the choices.

    Never has "none of the above" been more appealing, but it isn't on the menu.
    What on Earth are you talking about? Do you remember Corbyn vs Johnson last time?
    OK, I accept slightly better than that, but the choices that we get are a condemnation of a FPTP 2 party system.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,127

    ohnotnow said:

    Foxy said:

    Today the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had a productive discussion on how we are delivering record funding for the NHS & cutting waiting lists while meeting members of the public.

    https://twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/1748366773806600331

    Has to be one of the worst public meetings a PM has had other than Brown's infamous one.

    Rishi Sunak is going to come severely unstuck on the campaign trail IMHO.

    He is factually wrong in that clip. October saw the first combined strike of Junior and Consultant doctors in NHS history.

    He also claimed that other groups had settled. That is not the case. The HCSA has rejected the Consultant offer* and the BMA are reporting their member ballot next week. I expect it will be rejected too. The SAS grades are yet to receive an offer and the RCN are in dispute still too.

    I don't know if he is misinformed or telling untruths deliberately, but neither bodes well for the campaign trail.

    *I voted to accept.
    ... Apart from that, the 'small boats', and a few other minor details - he's basically on track though?

    #voterishi #voteshort
    That vid clip is one of the most egregious mansplaining items I have seen in a long, long time.

    It really is quite surprising that CCHQ circulated it. Do they really think it makes Sunak look good?

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,705
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    Biden is scheduled to travel to Michigan at the end of the month to meet with Arab American voters.

    There is a problem - many are rejecting the invite to meet, while others have rebuffed outreach efforts.

    The meetings are in jeopardy, and currently looking like they won’t happen in Dearborn, which was the Biden team first and preferred choice.

    Don’t be surprised if this trip is “postponed due to scheduling.”

    Reality is starting to set in for many that our community won’t forgot about the genocide.

    That might be the case but they’ll end up with Trump in the WH.
    Trump or Biden, Sunak or Starmer. Those are the choices.

    Never has "none of the above" been more appealing, but it isn't on the menu.
    What on Earth are you talking about? Do you remember Corbyn vs Johnson last time?
    OK, I accept slightly better than that, but the choices that we get are a condemnation of a FPTP 2 party system.
    You are falling into a trap. They are not all the same. Quite the opposite. People need to get out to vote to stop Trump and in Britain change the government.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,391
    "UK military is too small to fight, US generals warn: Troop numbers are likely to fall below 70,000 within the next two years, casting doubt on the country’s combat capabilities, especially the British Army"

    Friday January 19 2024, 7.04pm GMT, The Times, see non-Rupewall link at https://archive.is/AlCyn

    (narrator: what is the point of the Conservative Party again?)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,125

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar

    DeSANTIS: If you look at Iowa, we did it right

    NEIL CAVUTO: But didn't win a single country


    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1748454606940561880
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,125
    viewcode said:

    "UK military is too small to fight, US generals warn: Troop numbers are likely to fall below 70,000 within the next two years, casting doubt on the country’s combat capabilities, especially the British Army"

    Friday January 19 2024, 7.04pm GMT, The Times, see non-Rupewall link at https://archive.is/AlCyn

    (narrator: what is the point of the Conservative Party again?)

    Rearmament will be the great issue of Starmer's term in office and no one is talking about it now.

    Trump 2.0 means end of US engagement in Europe. Maybe even withdrawal of all us troops in the continent.

    We are all - across europe - going to have to step up in the mid 2020s.

    This means massive reversal of decades of low military spending.

    The UK public have no idea what they are about to have to be asked to contribute to through the tax system.

    We are living in an Edwardian-like 'summer' before the lights threaten to go out.

    Forget aliens and AI, the coming war in europe is the issue.



  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,737
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    Biden is scheduled to travel to Michigan at the end of the month to meet with Arab American voters.

    There is a problem - many are rejecting the invite to meet, while others have rebuffed outreach efforts.

    The meetings are in jeopardy, and currently looking like they won’t happen in Dearborn, which was the Biden team first and preferred choice.

    Don’t be surprised if this trip is “postponed due to scheduling.”

    Reality is starting to set in for many that our community won’t forgot about the genocide.

    That might be the case but they’ll end up with Trump in the WH.
    Trump or Biden, Sunak or Starmer. Those are the choices.

    Never has "none of the above" been more appealing, but it isn't on the menu.
    What on Earth are you talking about? Do you remember Corbyn vs Johnson last time?
    Also. Trump or Biden was literally the choice last time.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Johnson really is a clueless clown . So having allegedly been fully behind Ukraine he now backs Trump to win in some delusional hope that he won’t ditch support . And Johnson is happy to take this chance to own the liberals!
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,737

    viewcode said:

    "UK military is too small to fight, US generals warn: Troop numbers are likely to fall below 70,000 within the next two years, casting doubt on the country’s combat capabilities, especially the British Army"

    Friday January 19 2024, 7.04pm GMT, The Times, see non-Rupewall link at https://archive.is/AlCyn

    (narrator: what is the point of the Conservative Party again?)

    Rearmament will be the great issue of Starmer's term in office and no one is talking about it now.

    Trump 2.0 means end of US engagement in Europe. Maybe even withdrawal of all us troops in the continent.

    We are all - across europe - going to have to step up in the mid 2020s.

    This means massive reversal of decades of low military spending.

    The UK public have no idea what they are about to have to be asked to contribute to through the tax system.

    We are living in an Edwardian-like 'summer' before the lights threaten to go out.

    Forget aliens and AI, the coming war in europe is the issue.


    Also seems likely to drive us much more back into the EU's orbit. If America abandons Europe then alliances, good relations and collaboration becomes much more important.

    Which is not to say we rejoin. Lots can be done outside. Just security issues are much easier to deal with if aligned on other things.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    Biden is scheduled to travel to Michigan at the end of the month to meet with Arab American voters.

    There is a problem - many are rejecting the invite to meet, while others have rebuffed outreach efforts.

    The meetings are in jeopardy, and currently looking like they won’t happen in Dearborn, which was the Biden team first and preferred choice.

    Don’t be surprised if this trip is “postponed due to scheduling.”

    Reality is starting to set in for many that our community won’t forgot about the genocide.

    That might be the case but they’ll end up with Trump in the WH.
    Trump or Biden, Sunak or Starmer. Those are the choices.

    Never has "none of the above" been more appealing, but it isn't on the menu.
    What on Earth are you talking about? Do you remember Corbyn vs Johnson last time?
    OK, I accept slightly better than that, but the choices that we get are a condemnation of a FPTP 2 party system.
    You are falling into a trap. They are not all the same. Quite the opposite. People need to get out to vote to stop Trump and in Britain change the government.
    Why?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    I don't think you are right about Michigan the large Arab population there hate Bidens stance on Gaza and Biden can't win it without the Arab vote.
    Large equals 2%.

    He can win without a single Arab American vote.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    Biden is scheduled to travel to Michigan at the end of the month to meet with Arab American voters.

    There is a problem - many are rejecting the invite to meet, while others have rebuffed outreach efforts.

    The meetings are in jeopardy, and currently looking like they won’t happen in Dearborn, which was the Biden team first and preferred choice.

    Don’t be surprised if this trip is “postponed due to scheduling.”

    Reality is starting to set in for many that our community won’t forgot about the genocide.

    That might be the case but they’ll end up with Trump in the WH.
    Trump or Biden, Sunak or Starmer. Those are the choices.

    Never has "none of the above" been more appealing, but it isn't on the menu.
    What on Earth are you talking about? Do you remember Corbyn vs Johnson last time?
    Remember it well. The time when you were indifferent to who won
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    I don't think you are right about Michigan the large Arab population there hate Bidens stance on Gaza and Biden can't win it without the Arab vote.
    Large equals 2%.

    He can win without a single Arab American vote.
    Can't win without a single Muslim vote though. If he loses Michigin he loses the Presidency too
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Biden's margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes. The state is home to more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 people claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Biden's margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes. The state is home to more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 people claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa.

    How can he win Michigin without a single Arab vote Robert?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    I don't think you are right about Michigan the large Arab population there hate Bidens stance on Gaza and Biden can't win it without the Arab vote.
    Large equals 2%.

    He can win without a single Arab American vote.
    Can't win without a single Muslim vote though. If he loses Michigin he loses the Presidency too
    Just so you know, here in LA there have been demonstrations from the Persian Muslim community in support of Israel.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    Biden's margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes. The state is home to more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 people claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa.

    How can he win Michigin without a single Arab vote Robert?
    I'm happy to offer you evens on Michigan if you like.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    I don't think you are right about Michigan the large Arab population there hate Bidens stance on Gaza and Biden can't win it without the Arab vote.
    Large equals 2%.

    He can win without a single Arab American vote.
    Can't win without a single Muslim vote though. If he loses Michigin he loses the Presidency too
    Just so you know, here in LA there have been demonstrations from the Persian Muslim community in support of Israel.
    Is LA in Michigin now?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,949

    Biden's margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes. The state is home to more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 people claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa.

    If they want Trump to win they can refuse to vote Democrat.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    I don't think you are right about Michigan the large Arab population there hate Bidens stance on Gaza and Biden can't win it without the Arab vote.
    Large equals 2%.

    He can win without a single Arab American vote.
    Can't win without a single Muslim vote though. If he loses Michigin he loses the Presidency too
    Just so you know, here in LA there have been demonstrations from the Persian Muslim community in support of Israel.
    Is LA in Michigin now?
    "Can't win without a single Muslim vote though", you wrote.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,133

    viewcode said:

    "UK military is too small to fight, US generals warn: Troop numbers are likely to fall below 70,000 within the next two years, casting doubt on the country’s combat capabilities, especially the British Army"

    Friday January 19 2024, 7.04pm GMT, The Times, see non-Rupewall link at https://archive.is/AlCyn

    (narrator: what is the point of the Conservative Party again?)

    Rearmament will be the great issue of Starmer's term in office and no one is talking about it now.

    Trump 2.0 means end of US engagement in Europe. Maybe even withdrawal of all us troops in the continent.

    We are all - across europe - going to have to step up in the mid 2020s.

    This means massive reversal of decades of low military spending.

    The UK public have no idea what they are about to have to be asked to contribute to through the tax system.

    We are living in an Edwardian-like 'summer' before the lights threaten to go out.

    Forget aliens and AI, the coming war in europe is the issue.



    We shouldn't need to raise taxes to get decent armed forces - we should get more value from the money we spend. Defence procurement is a scandal and has been for decades, and there is little point in throwing more money at the problem, at least until that's fixed.

    However, as Labour's attitude towards public spending is the more the better, and the Conservatives these days seem to think almost the same, higher taxes are probably exactly what we'll get.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    Biden's margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes. The state is home to more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 people claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa.

    How did the Democrats do in the midterms in Michigan?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    edited January 20
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    Biden is scheduled to travel to Michigan at the end of the month to meet with Arab American voters.

    There is a problem - many are rejecting the invite to meet, while others have rebuffed outreach efforts.

    The meetings are in jeopardy, and currently looking like they won’t happen in Dearborn, which was the Biden team first and preferred choice.

    Don’t be surprised if this trip is “postponed due to scheduling.”

    Reality is starting to set in for many that our community won’t forgot about the genocide.

    That might be the case but they’ll end up with Trump in the WH.
    Trump or Biden, Sunak or Starmer. Those are the choices.

    Never has "none of the above" been more appealing, but it isn't on the menu.
    What on Earth are you talking about? Do you remember Corbyn vs Johnson last time?
    OK, I accept slightly better than that, but the choices that we get are a condemnation of a FPTP 2 party system.
    Too bad. That is the system. Play the game you are in, not what you wish the game to be.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    rcs1000 said:

    Biden's margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes. The state is home to more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 people claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa.

    How can he win Michigin without a single Arab vote Robert?
    I'm happy to offer you evens on Michigan if you like.
    You said he would increase his margin in several states including Michgan. How about Evens on that? Charity of our choice?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    rcs1000 said:

    Biden's margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes. The state is home to more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 people claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa.

    How can he win Michigin without a single Arab vote Robert?
    I'm happy to offer you evens on Michigan if you like.
    You said he would increase his margin in several states including Michgan. How about Evens on that? Charity of our choice?
    I'll take that: £50 to charity?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Biden's margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes. The state is home to more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 people claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa.

    How can he win Michigin without a single Arab vote Robert?
    I'm happy to offer you evens on Michigan if you like.
    You said he would increase his margin in several states including Michgan. How about Evens on that? Charity of our choice?
    I'll take that: £50 to charity?
    Yep that's fine so I win if his margin in Michigan is reduced or he loses Michigin you win if it increases.

    Is that OK?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    rcs1000 said:

    Biden's margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes. The state is home to more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 people claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa.

    How did the Democrats do in the midterms in Michigan?
    Was Israel bombing the shit out of Gaza with the support of Genocide Joe during the midterms?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    Olivia Rodrigo (one of several artists I’ve got to know via the children) is an excellent lyricist. Properly compelling to listen to.
    Likewise :smile:

    She reminds me a little bit of Garbage.
    There was a “progressive” review of Wall of Eyes in the Gaurdian

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2024/jan/18/the-smile-wall-of-eyes-review-radiohead-xl-recordings
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Biden's margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes. The state is home to more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 people claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa.

    How can he win Michigin without a single Arab vote Robert?
    I'm happy to offer you evens on Michigan if you like.
    You said he would increase his margin in several states including Michgan. How about Evens on that? Charity of our choice?
    I'll take that: £50 to charity?
    Yep that's fine so I win if his margin in Michigan is reduced or he loses Michigin you win if it increases.

    Is that OK?
    That's correct, with the proviso that I'm talking margin in percentage, not in number of votes.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    Olivia Rodrigo (one of several artists I’ve got to know via the children) is an excellent lyricist. Properly compelling to listen to.
    Have you tried any bardcore?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_nc1IVoMxc
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,949
    "Parkinson's disease sufferer, 73, is given £100 parking fine after tremors from his condition meant he could not download app and pay for a ticket in time"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12983165/Parkinsons-disease-parking-fine-tremors-download-app-pay-ticket.html
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Biden's margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes. The state is home to more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 people claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa.

    How can he win Michigin without a single Arab vote Robert?
    I'm happy to offer you evens on Michigan if you like.
    You said he would increase his margin in several states including Michgan. How about Evens on that? Charity of our choice?
    I'll take that: £50 to charity?
    Yep that's fine so I win if his margin in Michigan is reduced or he loses Michigin you win if it increases.

    Is that OK?
    That's correct, with the proviso that I'm talking margin in percentage, not in number of votes.
    Not sure precisely what that means. Do you want to PM me so I understand the rules of our bet. I think turnout in Michigan will be down, and Biden will have less than the 158k margin he had last time. I am still likely to take the bet on the % margin, but please PM me the starting point ie 2020 in percentage terms so we are clear
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,737
    Andy_JS said:

    Biden's margin of victory in Michigan was 154,000 votes. The state is home to more than 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 people claim ancestry from the Middle East and North Africa.

    If they want Trump to win they can refuse to vote Democrat.
    Kind of absurd too to claim that Muslim voters are a homogeneous block who are entirely defined by one's stance on Palestine.

    Yes, some will have profound objections to continuing, even qualified, support for Israel. Others will judge Biden to be better than Trump. Some will reject this framing altogether as they are quietly pissed off at those defining them by it.

    You'd expect a mild dip in support bit one that was hardly catastrophic. And much so than the noisiest people would want one to believe.

    It's like in the 2020 primaries. If you listened to Twitter and activists you'd believe black voters were going to hand the nomination to Bernie. Actually it was a few people with big social media accounts and when it came down to it, ordinary loyalties to moderate Democrats who had been longer term allies stuck.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,418
    viewcode said:

    "UK military is too small to fight, US generals warn: Troop numbers are likely to fall below 70,000 within the next two years, casting doubt on the country’s combat capabilities, especially the British Army"

    Friday January 19 2024, 7.04pm GMT, The Times, see non-Rupewall link at https://archive.is/AlCyn

    (narrator: what is the point of the Conservative Party again?)



    Four decades of Tory defence cuts.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Andy_JS said:

    "Parkinson's disease sufferer, 73, is given £100 parking fine after tremors from his condition meant he could not download app and pay for a ticket in time"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12983165/Parkinsons-disease-parking-fine-tremors-download-app-pay-ticket.html

    If he can't get a parking ticket due to his Parkinsons should he really be in charge of a car?

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,391
    Andy_JS said:

    "Parkinson's disease sufferer, 73, is given £100 parking fine after tremors from his condition meant he could not download app and pay for a ticket in time"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12983165/Parkinsons-disease-parking-fine-tremors-download-app-pay-ticket.html

    The YouTuber "JayEmm on Cars" points out that the growth in EV vehicles will cause problems for the poor, disabled and the old who do not have the necessary infrastructure to handle it, including tech, and that this disqualification is concerning

    https://youtu.be/5U4jI6xb6jg?si=sSH2KrYXeNRuqElq&t=766
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,391
    To: @TSE, @rcs1000
    From: @viewcode

    Good morning to you both
    I have emailed you a proposed article on the Finnish 2024 Presidential Election. It has had all the personal data removed. It is submitted to you on the condition that you do not breach my anonymity: please accept that or return it unpublished. I hope that you look kindly upon it. Regards, @viewcode
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,127
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    Biden is scheduled to travel to Michigan at the end of the month to meet with Arab American voters.

    There is a problem - many are rejecting the invite to meet, while others have rebuffed outreach efforts.

    The meetings are in jeopardy, and currently looking like they won’t happen in Dearborn, which was the Biden team first and preferred choice.

    Don’t be surprised if this trip is “postponed due to scheduling.”

    Reality is starting to set in for many that our community won’t forgot about the genocide.

    That might be the case but they’ll end up with Trump in the WH.
    Trump or Biden, Sunak or Starmer. Those are the choices.

    Never has "none of the above" been more appealing, but it isn't on the menu.
    What on Earth are you talking about? Do you remember Corbyn vs Johnson last time?
    OK, I accept slightly better than that, but the choices that we get are a condemnation of a FPTP 2 party system.
    You are falling into a trap. They are not all the same. Quite the opposite. People need to get out to vote to stop Trump and in Britain change the government.
    I am not saying that they are the same. I am saying that they are poor in different ways.
    MJW said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    Biden is scheduled to travel to Michigan at the end of the month to meet with Arab American voters.

    There is a problem - many are rejecting the invite to meet, while others have rebuffed outreach efforts.

    The meetings are in jeopardy, and currently looking like they won’t happen in Dearborn, which was the Biden team first and preferred choice.

    Don’t be surprised if this trip is “postponed due to scheduling.”

    Reality is starting to set in for many that our community won’t forgot about the genocide.

    That might be the case but they’ll end up with Trump in the WH.
    Trump or Biden, Sunak or Starmer. Those are the choices.

    Never has "none of the above" been more appealing, but it isn't on the menu.
    What on Earth are you talking about? Do you remember Corbyn vs Johnson last time?
    Also. Trump or Biden was literally the choice last time.
    Yes but both are worse than they were in 2020, and 4 years older.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,039

    viewcode said:

    "UK military is too small to fight, US generals warn: Troop numbers are likely to fall below 70,000 within the next two years, casting doubt on the country’s combat capabilities, especially the British Army"

    Friday January 19 2024, 7.04pm GMT, The Times, see non-Rupewall link at https://archive.is/AlCyn

    (narrator: what is the point of the Conservative Party again?)



    Four decades of Tory defence cuts.
    What, with all this talk of war with Russia in 20 years.

    Surely the rhetoric is unconnected.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701

    viewcode said:

    "UK military is too small to fight, US generals warn: Troop numbers are likely to fall below 70,000 within the next two years, casting doubt on the country’s combat capabilities, especially the British Army"

    Friday January 19 2024, 7.04pm GMT, The Times, see non-Rupewall link at https://archive.is/AlCyn

    (narrator: what is the point of the Conservative Party again?)



    Four decades of Tory defence cuts.
    I've called you out for this bollocks before.

    The Tories have not been in power for the last four decades. And defence spending went up under Thatcher.

    Stop it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099

    Rishi Sunak is going to come severely unstuck on the campaign trail IMHO.

    He will follow the BoZo playbook. Meet only fawning supporters, or hide in a fridge
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,453
    Scott_xP said:

    Rishi Sunak is going to come severely unstuck on the campaign trail IMHO.

    He will follow the BoZo playbook. Meet only fawning supporters, or hide in a fridge
    Johnson could get away with that, though; he was very comfortably ahead.

    Sunak is very comfortably behind. He has to get out there to try and change the weather. Even if it's more likely than not that he'll make things even worse.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    edited January 20

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    Thanks Casino,

    So in all honesty, I liked all of these albums, to a greater or lesser degree (there were a handful which I listened to that didn't make the cut and which I didn't keep in my collection - Daughter, Metallica, Miley Cyrus). It is actually quite difficult to rank them in some instances but this is my final list.

    And I'm certainly very aware that I'm pretty atypical for someone of my age group - most of my friends stopped listening to music in 1990 or thereabouts, but personally, I think pretty much every year since popular music began has had some great music and some complete rubbish - yes even the 60s - it's just that a lot of rubbish from earlier eras doesn't get played now, but IMHO the greats of the current era stand up well against those of earlier times.

    I consider myself very lucky that I like a lot of modern music, as there is always new stuff to look forward to (albums are to music as elections are to politics :smiley: ).

    But certainly, there are some albums in my list that appeared in a lot of 2023 best of lists: Depeche Mode, Mitski, PJ Harvey, EBTG, The Japanese House, OMD, Blur, Jessie Ware, Boygenius, Slowdive, Lana Del Rey, Olivia Rodrigo.

    Equally however, there are quite a few albums on my list that appeared on only a few or no year-end lists: Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Holly Humberstone, Molly Burch, Jorja Smith, Gabrielle Aplin, Maisie Peters, Freya Ridings.

    The real "find" of 2023 for me was Freya Ridings - Blood Orange (her 2nd album) didn't appear in any best of lists that I saw, but I absolutely loved it.

    So yes I think it's certainly true, depending on the publication, that they will favour certain kinds of albums, and obviously my list is slightly biased depending on how much I liked the artist to start with.

    Certainly I would never either like or not like an artist just because they were huge, or obscure, or critically acclaimed, or sneered at - in general most of my favourite artists tend to be quite/very successful, but not in all cases, and often it's the unexpected niche artists who can be the most rewarding.

    I hope that all makes sense!
    Cannons ‘Heartbreak Highway’, Metric ‘Formentera 2’ among my albums of the year….

    If there’s been a better song than Metric’s ‘Who Would You Be For Me’ I haven’t heard it.
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