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Is 81 year-old Biden really going to run again? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408
    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    Very friendly Times article on Sir Keir

    Keir Starmer: my plans to reform our broken NHS

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a7a7517f-d956-4f89-8d51-8fbe93210131?shareToken=95e2d5166826d9c220686c0512fad25e

    Murdoch hedging his bets? Times goes lightly for Starmer. The Sun goes in with its boots on for Sunak.
    Papers catering to their readership I think. Your average Times reader is more liberal and has almost certainly lost patience with the Tories. The Sun's remaining readership are possibly one of the few segments of the electorate still pro-Tory.

    Plus don't underestimate embarrassment as a factor. The Sun went all in on the Tories. To the extent their political editor was once a prominent heavily connect activist. It would be profoundly embarrassing to get into bed with Labour now. Much easier for The Times to emphasise its more Labour-friendly side.
    I think The Sun might genuinely sit on the fence for this one. Say they don’t really like any of them, Sunak isn’t populist enough, and then claim bragging rights that they weren’t strictly backing the losing team when the Tories lose.

    I expect The Sun and The Mail to fully hitch themselves to the populist right after the GE (to the extent elements of them at not there already).
    I think the likeliest is grudging support. They'll say he's Sunak's a bit shit but that Starmer will put Brexit at risk and put a migrant in every home.
    Set against that, The Sun has a reputation for backing winners. Now their circulation is so much smaller, it's easier to see the Sun readership not being everyman and not wanting the same as the general public.

    I can imagine them doing a big celebrity splash on election day, with election news on page 14 or so.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    edited January 19
    Foxy said:

    "Is this the right place for an argument?"

    "I told you once..."

    "No you didn't!"

    "Yes I did!"

    On the subject of arguments, dare I ask if the major PB betting spat a few days ago was resolved amicably or does the ISAM-kinabalu Principle still apply?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kinabalu said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @keiranpedley
    Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?

    Leader satisfaction ratings
    @IpsosUK

    Dec 23. Sunak.
    Sat 21%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -48

    Jul 22. Johnson.
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -45

    Oct 22 Truss
    Sat 16%
    Dissat 67%
    Net: -51

    Dec 19 Corbyn
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 68%
    Net: -44

    Of course he is.

    Some of us have been saying that for over a year.
    Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.

    But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
    And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.

    At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...

    Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
    The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
    With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
    I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
    Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.


    *as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
    Er, it’s quite obvious

    Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central

    I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”

    That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
    You're missing some of the complexity here. Actually there's also something quintessentially English about Corbyn. His allotment. His fondness for making jam. His deep love of London. His support of Arsenal. His unerring politeness (usually) and his reluctance to 'personalise' politics (reminiscent of Tony Benn's 'policies not personalities' mantra). And, even his penchant for attending marches for every popular left-wing cause is a fine English tradition for those on the left.
    In conclusion, he's not atypical of many left-wing English gentlemen of a certain age influenced by the postwar socialist movement.

    So you're wrong. He loves his country. He just has a very different vision of it from you. And no, I'm not a fan of his.
    Six likes.

    Jesus Christ.
    Why? Seems logical to me. Like you I am no fan of Corbyn (to put it mildly), that doesn't mean he doesn't love his country even if you (like me) believe he is completely deluded in his politics and actually dangerous.The two positions are not incompatible.
    No-one who loved their country would have refused to blame Russia for the Salisbury poisonings - the use of a chemical weapon on British soil - even after being given access to the intelligence :

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/jeremy-corbyn-refuses-to-blame-russia-for-salisbury-attack-despite-seeing-new-evidence

    The man is an idiot, and a traitor.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,246

    Selebian said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Moon contd.

    ...The Japanese attempt to land on the Moon just 100m from its target is "unprecedented", says Dr Emma Gatti, a former Nasa scientist and editor-in-chief of SpaceWatch Global.

    Most spacecraft touch down kilometres away from their intended target, she tells the BBC.

    Apollo 11 - the spacecraft that landed the first humans on the moon - landed around 6.5 kilometres from the target, which is "a bit like if you wanted to land in Buckingham Palace and you arrive in Brixton," she says.

    She adds that it would be "historic" for Japan - a country much smaller than the United States or China - to join them in becoming only the fifth country to land on the Moon...

    Name the countries that have landed on the moon except the us....oh right you cant because it is zero
    THe USSR, China and India. All have made successful soft moon landings.
    With humans which was what was specified
    No it wasn't. The Apollo 11 example was just given as it is the most famous of all moon landings. The comment was concerning moon landings. Hence the fact it even says explicitely "the fifth country to land on the Moon". It is not our fault you are incapbale of basic comprehension.
    By that definition beagle was a mars landing....it wasnt it was we crashed something into mars
    Incorrect, that landed successfully.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_landing
    The lander appears to have successfully landed but not deployed all of its power and communications panels.

    In any case an uncontrolled landing is still a landing.
    So my point stands you count a brick hitting a celestial object as a landing
    Most people arent going to if you ask people have we landed on mars the answer will be mostly no as no humans
    Did you read what I wrote? It landed successfully, it didn't crash.
    It still isnt to most people a mars landing....go ask your friends have we landed on mars most will say no we just sent some probes because landing involves humans
    Yet I have a page here full of "Mars landings".

    In your world, what is it called when a lunar lander lands on the Moon?
    If no people it is a probe, not a landing....no people no landing. No one cares what nasa calls it. There understanding is boots on the ground....no one believes we have landed on mars.
    Just as a matter of interest, when drones return to airbases, and their wheels touchdown on the runway, what word am I supposed to use other than "landing"?
    So if we nuke russia can we call it a russian landing?
    If the Trident missiles land, something has gone seriously wrong.
    Ah, another nuclear-war-phobic bigot. :-)
    Ah yes, the TWERPs. Tritium warhead exclusionary radical peacenik
    Deuterium, shirley?
    The primary (assuming a modern multistager - aka Hydrogen Bomb) will be fusion booster with some Tritium in the middle of the pit.

    The secondary contain lithium deutiride. Generally infused (porous ceramic) more tritium. In the centre of the secondary is another fission bomb (aka the Sparkplug) which is also Tritium boosted.

    The lithium, under neutron bombardment, will turn into more tritium. Which kicks up the fusion yield and in turn produces even more neutrons…

    All this is because tritium fuses more easily than deuterium.
    Ah, thanks. But I could have sworn Edward Teller is portrayed as mentioning deuterium in "Oppenheimer".
    Deuterium featured in the production of the *atomic* bomb in two ways.

    Firstly, as Heavy Water (Deuterium instead of Hydrogen). You could hold a small reactor with Deuterium (and uranium metal) - and use it for plutonium production. This was done experimentally in the American program - they used graphite moderated reactors for full scale plutonium production.

    The other was Super - the study of a theoretical H bomb. Back then, they thought it would be a tank of deuterium spiked with tritium and an A bomb at one end. Teller spent more than half his time at Los Alamos on the maths for this.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708
    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MJW said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?

    if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?

    Hmmm

    It would heavily depend on whether those themes you mention - which are largely boomer themes - get handed down to the next generation of elderly voters which by then will include a large chunk of GenX.

    European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
    Yes I agree. They need to copy Le Pen in the way she rejuvenated the French right

    The young are voting Le Pen in extraordinary numbers
    There's a basic difference between us and continental Europe though in that the struggles Western nations are facing are, there, associated with a failed social democratic establishment.

    Here younger people associate them with with a failure of a right that has been in power for 14 years and got policies through that at one point were beyond its wildest dreams but are seen as having failed even on their own terms.

    So people kicking out at that here trend left. There they trend right.

    Doubling down on that with something edgier is therefore unlikely to help. At least for now. In 10-15 years if we're still in a funk that may change. For the moment though people like Braverman, Farage re seen as part of, perhaps a lot of, the problem.
    But this is a misdiagnosis. We might have had a right wing government on paper, but in practice we have been at the extreme end of an experiment in governing by a dehumanised system of 'rights'. The Tories have failed completely, not because they were too right wing but because they didn't challenge the framework that had been entrenched under Tony Blair.

    There was a good example of the pathologies of the system yesterday where someone documented his attempts to track down his mother after she was admitted to hospital and was met with Kafkaesque obstruction.

    https://x.com/classiccarguru1/status/1747858911347032074
    Sure, that's a possibility.

    Here's another one.

    The West faces two major issues that significantly impact the path of economic growth.

    The first is demographics. We have more and more old people, and they take up an increasing share of government spending. Look at the percentage of GDP that is spent on social care plus health plus pensions and compare now to 1980. And we know this is only going to rise. More and more of peoples' income is going to be spent on looking after old people, and that's true irrespective of who the government is.

    The second is the rise of developing economies. The reality is that people in China, India, Vietnam and the like are willing to work for less than Brits. And even if that had absolutely no impact on British exports (which is optimistic), it still means there is more competition for commodities. In the past, the developed world was the dominant purchaser of oil, natural gas, pork and the like. That's simply not true anymore. And that means that the price we're going to be paying for those imports is going to be higher.
    That may all be true but it's orthogonal to the question of whether the UK government has been too right wing or not.
    'Orthogonal' - it's not normal to speak like that
    Ahem!
    fyi this was the jokey point:
    In geometry terms the difference between orthogonal and normal is that orthogonal is of two objects, at right angles; perpendicular to each other while normal is a line or vector that is perpendicular to another line, surface, or plane.
    Clumsily put, but that's Wikidiff for you
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    edited January 19
    MJW said:

    isam said:

    Very friendly Times article on Sir Keir

    Keir Starmer: my plans to reform our broken NHS

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a7a7517f-d956-4f89-8d51-8fbe93210131?shareToken=95e2d5166826d9c220686c0512fad25e

    Murdoch hedging his bets? Times goes lightly for Starmer. The Sun goes in with its boots on for Sunak.
    Papers catering to their readership I think. Your average Times reader is more liberal and has almost certainly lost patience with the Tories. The Sun's remaining readership are possibly one of the few segments of the electorate still pro-Tory.

    Plus don't underestimate embarrassment as a factor. The Sun went all in on the Tories. To the extent their political editor was once a prominent heavily connect activist. It would be profoundly embarrassing to get into bed with Labour now. Much easier for The Times to emphasise its more Labour-friendly side.
    I would completely discount embarrassment as a factor. These papers have a very low opinion of their readerships and will have no compunction at all in flip-flopping overnight if they decide they want to be able to say "We swayed it for Labour"; they will assume their readers won't remember what was said in the paper the week before.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    RobD said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Moon contd.

    ...The Japanese attempt to land on the Moon just 100m from its target is "unprecedented", says Dr Emma Gatti, a former Nasa scientist and editor-in-chief of SpaceWatch Global.

    Most spacecraft touch down kilometres away from their intended target, she tells the BBC.

    Apollo 11 - the spacecraft that landed the first humans on the moon - landed around 6.5 kilometres from the target, which is "a bit like if you wanted to land in Buckingham Palace and you arrive in Brixton," she says.

    She adds that it would be "historic" for Japan - a country much smaller than the United States or China - to join them in becoming only the fifth country to land on the Moon...

    Name the countries that have landed on the moon except the us....oh right you cant because it is zero
    THe USSR, China and India. All have made successful soft moon landings.
    With humans which was what was specified
    No it wasn't. The Apollo 11 example was just given as it is the most famous of all moon landings. The comment was concerning moon landings. Hence the fact it even says explicitely "the fifth country to land on the Moon". It is not our fault you are incapbale of basic comprehension.
    By that definition beagle was a mars landing....it wasnt it was we crashed something into mars
    Incorrect, that landed successfully.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_landing
    The lander appears to have successfully landed but not deployed all of its power and communications panels.

    In any case an uncontrolled landing is still a landing.
    So my point stands you count a brick hitting a celestial object as a landing
    Most people arent going to if you ask people have we landed on mars the answer will be mostly no as no humans
    Did you read what I wrote? It landed successfully, it didn't crash.
    It still isnt to most people a mars landing....go ask your friends have we landed on mars most will say no we just sent some probes because landing involves humans
    Yet I have a page here full of "Mars landings".

    In your world, what is it called when a lunar lander lands on the Moon?
    If no people it is a probe, not a landing....no people no landing. No one cares what nasa calls it. There understanding is boots on the ground....no one believes we have landed on mars.
    Just as a matter of interest, when drones return to airbases, and their wheels touchdown on the runway, what word am I supposed to use other than "landing"?
    On the subject of drones, can drone pilots win medals for bravery?
    In the US: no, but there are caveats. The Distinguished Warfare Medal was introduced to that end, but was cancelled and replaced by a device, which is a thing added to an existing medal. The devices are subdivided into V for valor, C for combat, and R for remote. Drone pilots would get service and theater medals with a "R" device.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_award_devices
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distinguished_Warfare_Medal
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,134
    edited January 19
    Hmmm.


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    Very friendly Times article on Sir Keir

    Keir Starmer: my plans to reform our broken NHS

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a7a7517f-d956-4f89-8d51-8fbe93210131?shareToken=95e2d5166826d9c220686c0512fad25e

    Murdoch hedging his bets? Times goes lightly for Starmer. The Sun goes in with its boots on for Sunak.
    Papers catering to their readership I think. Your average Times reader is more liberal and has almost certainly lost patience with the Tories. The Sun's remaining readership are possibly one of the few segments of the electorate still pro-Tory.

    Plus don't underestimate embarrassment as a factor. The Sun went all in on the Tories. To the extent their political editor was once a prominent heavily connect activist. It would be profoundly embarrassing to get into bed with Labour now. Much easier for The Times to emphasise its more Labour-friendly side.
    I think The Sun might genuinely sit on the fence for this one. Say they don’t really like any of them, Sunak isn’t populist enough, and then claim bragging rights that they weren’t strictly backing the losing team when the Tories lose.

    I expect The Sun and The Mail to fully hitch themselves to the populist right after the GE (to the extent elements of them at not there already).
    I think the likeliest is grudging support. They'll say he's Sunak's a bit shit but that Starmer will put Brexit at risk and put a migrant in every home.
    Set against that, The Sun has a reputation for backing winners. Now their circulation is so much smaller, it's easier to see the Sun readership not being everyman and not wanting the same as the general public.

    I can imagine them doing a big celebrity splash on election day, with election news on page 14 or so.
    "Backing winners" will win the day imo.

    If the polls stay as they are now the Sun will know the game is up for the Tories, nothing they put in the paper will make the smallest amount of difference, so might as well be on the winning side.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    If Biden ordered the assassination of Mr Trump, then that would be ok then?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    geoffw said:

    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MJW said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?

    if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?

    Hmmm

    It would heavily depend on whether those themes you mention - which are largely boomer themes - get handed down to the next generation of elderly voters which by then will include a large chunk of GenX.

    European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
    Yes I agree. They need to copy Le Pen in the way she rejuvenated the French right

    The young are voting Le Pen in extraordinary numbers
    There's a basic difference between us and continental Europe though in that the struggles Western nations are facing are, there, associated with a failed social democratic establishment.

    Here younger people associate them with with a failure of a right that has been in power for 14 years and got policies through that at one point were beyond its wildest dreams but are seen as having failed even on their own terms.

    So people kicking out at that here trend left. There they trend right.

    Doubling down on that with something edgier is therefore unlikely to help. At least for now. In 10-15 years if we're still in a funk that may change. For the moment though people like Braverman, Farage re seen as part of, perhaps a lot of, the problem.
    But this is a misdiagnosis. We might have had a right wing government on paper, but in practice we have been at the extreme end of an experiment in governing by a dehumanised system of 'rights'. The Tories have failed completely, not because they were too right wing but because they didn't challenge the framework that had been entrenched under Tony Blair.

    There was a good example of the pathologies of the system yesterday where someone documented his attempts to track down his mother after she was admitted to hospital and was met with Kafkaesque obstruction.

    https://x.com/classiccarguru1/status/1747858911347032074
    Sure, that's a possibility.

    Here's another one.

    The West faces two major issues that significantly impact the path of economic growth.

    The first is demographics. We have more and more old people, and they take up an increasing share of government spending. Look at the percentage of GDP that is spent on social care plus health plus pensions and compare now to 1980. And we know this is only going to rise. More and more of peoples' income is going to be spent on looking after old people, and that's true irrespective of who the government is.

    The second is the rise of developing economies. The reality is that people in China, India, Vietnam and the like are willing to work for less than Brits. And even if that had absolutely no impact on British exports (which is optimistic), it still means there is more competition for commodities. In the past, the developed world was the dominant purchaser of oil, natural gas, pork and the like. That's simply not true anymore. And that means that the price we're going to be paying for those imports is going to be higher.
    That may all be true but it's orthogonal to the question of whether the UK government has been too right wing or not.
    'Orthogonal' - it's not normal to speak like that
    Ahem!
    fyi this was the jokey point:
    In geometry terms the difference between orthogonal and normal is that orthogonal is of two objects, at right angles; perpendicular to each other while normal is a line or vector that is perpendicular to another line, surface, or plane.
    Clumsily put, but that's Wikidiff for you
    Oh, I geddit. Thank you. I thought it was a bit tangential... :)
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,779
    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    Very friendly Times article on Sir Keir

    Keir Starmer: my plans to reform our broken NHS

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a7a7517f-d956-4f89-8d51-8fbe93210131?shareToken=95e2d5166826d9c220686c0512fad25e

    Murdoch hedging his bets? Times goes lightly for Starmer. The Sun goes in with its boots on for Sunak.
    Papers catering to their readership I think. Your average Times reader is more liberal and has almost certainly lost patience with the Tories. The Sun's remaining readership are possibly one of the few segments of the electorate still pro-Tory.

    Plus don't underestimate embarrassment as a factor. The Sun went all in on the Tories. To the extent their political editor was once a prominent heavily connect activist. It would be profoundly embarrassing to get into bed with Labour now. Much easier for The Times to emphasise its more Labour-friendly side.
    I think The Sun might genuinely sit on the fence for this one. Say they don’t really like any of them, Sunak isn’t populist enough, and then claim bragging rights that they weren’t strictly backing the losing team when the Tories lose.

    I expect The Sun and The Mail to fully hitch themselves to the populist right after the GE (to the extent elements of them at not there already).
    I think the likeliest is grudging support. They'll say he's Sunak's a bit shit but that Starmer will put Brexit at risk and put a migrant in every home.
    A lot of this depends on whether Rupert is still with us I suppose. Always had the impression that The Sun was one of his fave's.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,783

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kinabalu said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @keiranpedley
    Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?

    Leader satisfaction ratings
    @IpsosUK

    Dec 23. Sunak.
    Sat 21%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -48

    Jul 22. Johnson.
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -45

    Oct 22 Truss
    Sat 16%
    Dissat 67%
    Net: -51

    Dec 19 Corbyn
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 68%
    Net: -44

    Of course he is.

    Some of us have been saying that for over a year.
    Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.

    But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
    And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.

    At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...

    Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
    The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
    With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
    I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
    Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.


    *as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
    Er, it’s quite obvious

    Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central

    I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”

    That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
    You're missing some of the complexity here. Actually there's also something quintessentially English about Corbyn. His allotment. His fondness for making jam. His deep love of London. His support of Arsenal. His unerring politeness (usually) and his reluctance to 'personalise' politics (reminiscent of Tony Benn's 'policies not personalities' mantra). And, even his penchant for attending marches for every popular left-wing cause is a fine English tradition for those on the left.
    In conclusion, he's not atypical of many left-wing English gentlemen of a certain age influenced by the postwar socialist movement.

    So you're wrong. He loves his country. He just has a very different vision of it from you. And no, I'm not a fan of his.
    Six likes.

    Jesus Christ.
    Why? Seems logical to me. Like you I am no fan of Corbyn (to put it mildly), that doesn't mean he doesn't love his country even if you (like me) believe he is completely deluded in his politics and actually dangerous.The two positions are not incompatible.
    No-one who loved their country would have refused to blame Russia for the Salisbury poisonings - the use of a chemical weapon on British soil - even after being given access to the intelligence :

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/jeremy-corbyn-refuses-to-blame-russia-for-salisbury-attack-despite-seeing-new-evidence

    The man is an idiot, and a traitor.
    Surely by definition if you are an idiot you believe and do idiotic things, hence it is not contradictory.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,134
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    If Biden ordered the assassination of Mr Trump, then that would be ok then?
    It would be a way for Trump to avoid his criminal cases...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984
    rcs1000 said:

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    Olivia Rodrigo (one of several artists I’ve got to know via the children) is an excellent lyricist. Properly compelling to listen to.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kinabalu said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @keiranpedley
    Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?

    Leader satisfaction ratings
    @IpsosUK

    Dec 23. Sunak.
    Sat 21%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -48

    Jul 22. Johnson.
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -45

    Oct 22 Truss
    Sat 16%
    Dissat 67%
    Net: -51

    Dec 19 Corbyn
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 68%
    Net: -44

    Of course he is.

    Some of us have been saying that for over a year.
    Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.

    But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
    And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.

    At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...

    Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
    The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
    With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
    I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
    Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.


    *as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
    Er, it’s quite obvious

    Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central

    I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”

    That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
    You're missing some of the complexity here. Actually there's also something quintessentially English about Corbyn. His allotment. His fondness for making jam. His deep love of London. His support of Arsenal. His unerring politeness (usually) and his reluctance to 'personalise' politics (reminiscent of Tony Benn's 'policies not personalities' mantra). And, even his penchant for attending marches for every popular left-wing cause is a fine English tradition for those on the left.
    In conclusion, he's not atypical of many left-wing English gentlemen of a certain age influenced by the postwar socialist movement.

    So you're wrong. He loves his country. He just has a very different vision of it from you. And no, I'm not a fan of his.
    Six likes.

    Jesus Christ.
    Seven now. Britain has a long tradition of radicalism. For every foppish Cavalier there is a russet coated Roundhead.
    You've got that totally wrong...

    It's 10.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    @DoubleCarpet

    Great list. I listened to and enjoyed 6 of your top 20.

    I recommend you check out the Caroline Polachek and Young Fathers albums from last year as well.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,783
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    If Biden ordered the assassination of Mr Trump, then that would be ok then?
    Nope because Biden didn't win. I'm getting the hang of Trump logic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    If Biden ordered the assassination of Mr Trump, then that would be ok then?
    Supposedly this is meant to be covered by the other batshit argument about needing impeachment at least before any charge (though that seems opposed to the idea of total immunity), that he would convicted in the Senate in that circumstance, so he could then be charged. But of course he could just kill the Senators too, making that impossible.

    Naturally the idea is insane even on its face, but even so it's bizarre how Trump fans don't seem to realise the power they think Biden and any Democrat President would have under their ideas.
  • Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    Thanks Casino,

    So in all honesty, I liked all of these albums, to a greater or lesser degree (there were a handful which I listened to that didn't make the cut and which I didn't keep in my collection - Daughter, Metallica, Miley Cyrus). It is actually quite difficult to rank them in some instances but this is my final list.

    And I'm certainly very aware that I'm pretty atypical for someone of my age group - most of my friends stopped listening to music in 1990 or thereabouts, but personally, I think pretty much every year since popular music began has had some great music and some complete rubbish - yes even the 60s - it's just that a lot of rubbish from earlier eras doesn't get played now, but IMHO the greats of the current era stand up well against those of earlier times.

    I consider myself very lucky that I like a lot of modern music, as there is always new stuff to look forward to (albums are to music as elections are to politics :smiley: ).

    But certainly, there are some albums in my list that appeared in a lot of 2023 best of lists: Depeche Mode, Mitski, PJ Harvey, EBTG, The Japanese House, OMD, Blur, Jessie Ware, Boygenius, Slowdive, Lana Del Rey, Olivia Rodrigo.

    Equally however, there are quite a few albums on my list that appeared on only a few or no year-end lists: Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Holly Humberstone, Molly Burch, Jorja Smith, Gabrielle Aplin, Maisie Peters, Freya Ridings.

    The real "find" of 2023 for me was Freya Ridings - Blood Orange (her 2nd album) didn't appear in any best of lists that I saw, but I absolutely loved it.

    So yes I think it's certainly true, depending on the publication, that they will favour certain kinds of albums, and obviously my list is slightly biased depending on how much I liked the artist to start with.

    Certainly I would never either like or not like an artist just because they were huge, or obscure, or critically acclaimed, or sneered at - in general most of my favourite artists tend to be quite/very successful, but not in all cases, and often it's the unexpected niche artists who can be the most rewarding.

    I hope that all makes sense!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,783
    edited January 19

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kinabalu said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @keiranpedley
    Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?

    Leader satisfaction ratings
    @IpsosUK

    Dec 23. Sunak.
    Sat 21%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -48

    Jul 22. Johnson.
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -45

    Oct 22 Truss
    Sat 16%
    Dissat 67%
    Net: -51

    Dec 19 Corbyn
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 68%
    Net: -44

    Of course he is.

    Some of us have been saying that for over a year.
    Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.

    But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
    And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.

    At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...

    Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
    The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
    With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
    I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
    Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.


    *as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
    Er, it’s quite obvious

    Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central

    I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”

    That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
    You're missing some of the complexity here. Actually there's also something quintessentially English about Corbyn. His allotment. His fondness for making jam. His deep love of London. His support of Arsenal. His unerring politeness (usually) and his reluctance to 'personalise' politics (reminiscent of Tony Benn's 'policies not personalities' mantra). And, even his penchant for attending marches for every popular left-wing cause is a fine English tradition for those on the left.
    In conclusion, he's not atypical of many left-wing English gentlemen of a certain age influenced by the postwar socialist movement.

    So you're wrong. He loves his country. He just has a very different vision of it from you. And no, I'm not a fan of his.
    Six likes.

    Jesus Christ.
    Seven now. Britain has a long tradition of radicalism. For every foppish Cavalier there is a russet coated Roundhead.
    You've got that totally wrong...

    It's 10.
    I think people are trolling Casino now.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    Very friendly Times article on Sir Keir

    Keir Starmer: my plans to reform our broken NHS

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a7a7517f-d956-4f89-8d51-8fbe93210131?shareToken=95e2d5166826d9c220686c0512fad25e

    Murdoch hedging his bets? Times goes lightly for Starmer. The Sun goes in with its boots on for Sunak.
    Papers catering to their readership I think. Your average Times reader is more liberal and has almost certainly lost patience with the Tories. The Sun's remaining readership are possibly one of the few segments of the electorate still pro-Tory.

    Plus don't underestimate embarrassment as a factor. The Sun went all in on the Tories. To the extent their political editor was once a prominent heavily connect activist. It would be profoundly embarrassing to get into bed with Labour now. Much easier for The Times to emphasise its more Labour-friendly side.
    I would completely discount embarrassment as a factor. These papers have a very low opinion of their readerships and will have no compunction at all in flip-flopping overnight if they decide they want to be able to say "We swayed it for Labour"; they will assume their readers won't remember what was said in the paper the week before.
    There's some truth to that. But I think The Sun has become so entangled with the Tories, as opposed to just backing them, it will struggle to extract itself.

    Harry Cole for example would be a laughing stock in his social circle if he had to grovel to Labour. Plus so many of their stories come from CCHQ or No. 10 difficult to see how build those relationships with Labour figures in the way that say, Sun figures did in the New Labour years.

    Ultimately Uncle Rupe or Lachlan Murdoch will decide - with the latter apparently more dogmatically right-wing.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,659
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kinabalu said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @keiranpedley
    Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?

    Leader satisfaction ratings
    @IpsosUK

    Dec 23. Sunak.
    Sat 21%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -48

    Jul 22. Johnson.
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -45

    Oct 22 Truss
    Sat 16%
    Dissat 67%
    Net: -51

    Dec 19 Corbyn
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 68%
    Net: -44

    Of course he is.

    Some of us have been saying that for over a year.
    Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.

    But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
    And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.

    At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...

    Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
    The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
    With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
    I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
    Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.


    *as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
    Er, it’s quite obvious

    Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central

    I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”

    That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
    You're missing some of the complexity here. Actually there's also something quintessentially English about Corbyn. His allotment. His fondness for making jam. His deep love of London. His support of Arsenal. His unerring politeness (usually) and his reluctance to 'personalise' politics (reminiscent of Tony Benn's 'policies not personalities' mantra). And, even his penchant for attending marches for every popular left-wing cause is a fine English tradition for those on the left.
    In conclusion, he's not atypical of many left-wing English gentlemen of a certain age influenced by the postwar socialist movement.

    So you're wrong. He loves his country. He just has a very different vision of it from you. And no, I'm not a fan of his.
    Six likes.

    Jesus Christ.
    Why? Seems logical to me. Like you I am no fan of Corbyn (to put it mildly), that doesn't mean he doesn't love his country even if you (like me) believe he is completely deluded in his politics and actually dangerous.The two positions are not incompatible.
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kinabalu said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @keiranpedley
    Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?

    Leader satisfaction ratings
    @IpsosUK

    Dec 23. Sunak.
    Sat 21%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -48

    Jul 22. Johnson.
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -45

    Oct 22 Truss
    Sat 16%
    Dissat 67%
    Net: -51

    Dec 19 Corbyn
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 68%
    Net: -44

    Of course he is.

    Some of us have been saying that for over a year.
    Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.

    But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
    And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.

    At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...

    Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
    The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
    With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
    I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
    Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.


    *as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
    Er, it’s quite obvious

    Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central

    I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”

    That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
    You're missing some of the complexity here. Actually there's also something quintessentially English about Corbyn. His allotment. His fondness for making jam. His deep love of London. His support of Arsenal. His unerring politeness (usually) and his reluctance to 'personalise' politics (reminiscent of Tony Benn's 'policies not personalities' mantra). And, even his penchant for attending marches for every popular left-wing cause is a fine English tradition for those on the left.
    In conclusion, he's not atypical of many left-wing English gentlemen of a certain age influenced by the postwar socialist movement.

    So you're wrong. He loves his country. He just has a very different vision of it from you. And no, I'm not a fan of his.
    Six likes.

    Jesus Christ.
    Why? Seems logical to me. Like you I am no fan of Corbyn (to put it mildly), that doesn't mean he doesn't love his country even if you (like me) believe he is completely deluded in his politics and actually dangerous.The two positions are not incompatible.
    9 likes for Northern Al now.

    Casino Royale hates the vision for the country of the man who got 12.9m votes in 2017 and still thinks Corbyn does not love his Country because he wants the best for its poorest citizens and wants to make their lives better.

    Equally you could argue CR is the one to hate his country if it doesn't conform to his narrow right wing vision rather than celebrating the breadth of viewpoints of this wonderful Country like Jezza and me!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,815
    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    Respect my authoritah!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree that he will stand if Trump is the GOP nominee. If the SC ruled that Trump was not eligible (highly unlikely in my view) he may well feel that he has done his duty and stand down.

    He has been a very successful President. Although there is a lot of gloom and doom in the media the economic performance of the US economy throughout his time has been outstanding. He has made real progress in fixing dilapidated infrastructure. He has been resolute, and rightly so, on both Ukraine and Taiwan.

    His biggest problem has been immigration but as we know all too well that is a serious headache for any incumbent government in every western country. If he was 20 years younger he would, in my view, be a shoo in for a second term.

    He has massively increased the budget deficit

    On 31/12/21 (post Covid) government debt was $29.5 trillion

    As of 31/12/23 $34 trillion

    That’s a lot of money in just 2 years.
    It's a 15% increase.
    Trump increased the debt from $19.5 trillion to $26.9 trillion in four years - that's a 37% increase.

    It's not going to be significant in the result, one way or the other.

    More significantly, a large part of Biden's spending was genuine investment.

    Trump gave America's wealthier a $2T tax cut. Biden gave subsidies to get back chip manufacturing to the US - along with battery
    and EV factories.
    We are spending like drunken sailors but that’s ok because everyone else is too:

    If your economy is growing at a faster rate than your debt, then you're getting it right.
    As is the case with the US at the moment.
    Especially when growth is being driven by investment rather than consumption. There has been, until recently, no increase in real wages on average. Like us, the trade deficit remains a concern but it has been on a declining trend of late, partly driven by oil and gas production as you said.

    And coming up for 14m additional jobs. Just a mind blowing figure.
    One reason America is doing quite well, economically, compared to stagnant Europe, is that America seized the opportunity of the Ukraine war to blow up Nordstream (via proxies) thus fucking up the German economy, a major industrial rival

    What makes this especially piquant is that Biden and others literally and explicitly promised they would do this. Destroy Nordstream. And Germans meekly accept it, or they are entirely unaware of it

    You have to admire American chutzpah and brio, here. They barely bothered to hide what they planned to do: to a major ally

    PS: the Germans may, finally, be cottoning on

    https://x.com/berlinerzeitung/status/1748060431422292054?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    If they did it. We’ll never know.

    But the primary reason for their outperformance since about 2010 is indeed their lower energy costs.

    World’s largest oil producer now too.
    Blowing up Nordstream was win-win-win for the USA

    It cut off a serious source of income for Putin
    It reduced Putin’s leverage over Europe
    It chivvied Germany into the American team
    It made America stronger, relatively, as a major energy producer
    It screwed a major economic rival, Germany, creating more jobs in America

    I think the last was probably the least of America’s aims but it surely still figured. Superpowers act with intense selfishness: because they can

    And the Ukraine war gave the Americans the perfect cover to do all this: via Ukrainian and Polish proxies so giving DC plausible deniability. A master stroke. Genuinely admirable statecraft allied with very clever subterfuge
    I thought the latest ‘evidence’ was that Ukraine special forces did it ?

    Given how cautious Biden has been over the last two years, you theory isn’t very convincing.
    As far as the US economy is concerned, I doubt it made all that much difference. Oil and gas prices would have spiked anyway.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    Olivia Rodrigo (one of several artists I’ve got to know via the children) is an excellent lyricist. Properly compelling to listen to.
    Likewise :smile:

    She reminds me a little bit of Garbage.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree that he will stand if Trump is the GOP nominee. If the SC ruled that Trump was not eligible (highly unlikely in my view) he may well feel that he has done his duty and stand down.

    He has been a very successful President. Although there is a lot of gloom and doom in the media the economic performance of the US economy throughout his time has been outstanding. He has made real progress in fixing dilapidated infrastructure. He has been resolute, and rightly so, on both Ukraine and Taiwan.

    His biggest problem has been immigration but as we know all too well that is a serious headache for any incumbent government in every western country. If he was 20 years younger he would, in my view, be a shoo in for a second term.

    He has massively increased the budget deficit

    On 31/12/21 (post Covid) government debt was $29.5 trillion

    As of 31/12/23 $34 trillion

    That’s a lot of money in just 2 years.
    It's a 15% increase.
    Trump increased the debt from $19.5 trillion to $26.9 trillion in four years - that's a 37% increase.

    It's not going to be significant in the result, one way or the other.

    More significantly, a large part of Biden's spending was genuine investment.

    Trump gave America's wealthier a $2T tax cut. Biden gave subsidies to get back chip manufacturing to the US - along with battery
    and EV factories.
    We are spending like drunken sailors but that’s ok because everyone else is too:

    If your economy is growing at a faster rate than your debt, then you're getting it right.
    As is the case with the US at the moment.
    Especially when growth is being driven by investment rather than consumption. There has been, until recently, no increase in real wages on average. Like us, the trade deficit remains a concern but it has been on a declining trend of late, partly driven by oil and gas production as you said.

    And coming up for 14m additional jobs. Just a mind blowing figure.
    One reason America is doing quite well, economically, compared to stagnant Europe, is that America seized the opportunity of the Ukraine war to blow up Nordstream (via proxies) thus fucking up the German economy, a major industrial rival

    What makes this especially piquant is that Biden and others literally and explicitly promised they would do this. Destroy Nordstream. And Germans meekly accept it, or they are entirely unaware of it

    You have to admire American chutzpah and brio, here. They barely bothered to hide what they planned to do: to a major ally

    PS: the Germans may, finally, be cottoning on

    https://x.com/berlinerzeitung/status/1748060431422292054?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    If they did it. We’ll never know.

    But the primary reason for their outperformance since about 2010 is indeed their lower energy costs.

    World’s largest oil producer now too.
    Blowing up Nordstream was win-win-win for the USA

    It cut off a serious source of income for Putin
    It reduced Putin’s leverage over Europe
    It chivvied Germany into the American team
    It made America stronger, relatively, as a major energy producer
    It screwed a major economic rival, Germany, creating more jobs in America

    I think the last was probably the least of America’s aims but it surely still figured. Superpowers act with intense selfishness: because they can

    And the Ukraine war gave the Americans the perfect cover to do all this: via Ukrainian and Polish proxies so giving DC plausible deniability. A master stroke. Genuinely admirable statecraft allied with very clever subterfuge
    I thought the latest ‘evidence’ was that Ukraine special forces did it ?

    Given how cautious Biden has been over the last two years, you theory isn’t very convincing.
    As far as the US economy is concerned, I doubt it made all that much difference. Oil and gas prices would have spiked anyway.
    It has been exposed as the Ukrainians for about a year now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree that he will stand if Trump is the GOP nominee. If the SC ruled that Trump was not eligible (highly unlikely in my view) he may well feel that he has done his duty and stand down.

    He has been a very successful President. Although there is a lot of gloom and doom in the media the economic performance of the US economy throughout his time has been outstanding. He has made real progress in fixing dilapidated infrastructure. He has been resolute, and rightly so, on both Ukraine and Taiwan.

    His biggest problem has been immigration but as we know all too well that is a serious headache for any incumbent government in every western country. If he was 20 years younger he would, in my view, be a shoo in for a second term.

    He has massively increased the budget deficit

    On 31/12/21 (post Covid) government debt was $29.5 trillion

    As of 31/12/23 $34 trillion

    That’s a lot of money in just 2 years.
    It's a 15% increase.
    Trump increased the debt from $19.5 trillion to $26.9 trillion in four years - that's a 37% increase.

    It's not going to be significant in the result, one way or the other.

    More significantly, a large part of Biden's spending was genuine investment.

    Trump gave America's wealthier a $2T tax cut. Biden gave subsidies to get back chip manufacturing to the US - along with battery
    and EV factories.
    We are spending like drunken sailors but that’s ok because everyone else is too:

    If your economy is growing at a faster rate than your debt, then you're getting it right.
    As is the case with the US at the moment.
    Especially when growth is being driven by investment rather than consumption. There has been, until recently, no increase in real wages on average. Like us, the trade deficit remains a concern but it has been on a declining trend of late, partly driven by oil and gas production as you said.

    And coming up for 14m additional jobs. Just a mind blowing figure.
    One reason America is doing quite well, economically, compared to stagnant Europe, is that America seized the opportunity of the Ukraine war to blow up Nordstream (via proxies) thus fucking up the German economy, a major industrial rival

    What makes this especially piquant is that Biden and others literally and explicitly promised they would do this. Destroy Nordstream. And Germans meekly accept it, or they are entirely unaware of it

    You have to admire American chutzpah and brio, here. They barely bothered to hide what they planned to do: to a major ally

    PS: the Germans may, finally, be cottoning on

    https://x.com/berlinerzeitung/status/1748060431422292054?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    If they did it. We’ll never know.

    But the primary reason for their outperformance since about 2010 is indeed their lower energy costs.

    World’s largest oil producer now too.
    Blowing up Nordstream was win-win-win for the USA

    It cut off a serious source of income for Putin
    It reduced Putin’s leverage over Europe
    It chivvied Germany into the American team
    It made America stronger, relatively, as a major energy producer
    It screwed a major economic rival, Germany, creating more jobs in America

    I think the last was probably the least of America’s aims but it surely still figured. Superpowers act with intense selfishness: because they can

    And the Ukraine war gave the Americans the perfect cover to do all this: via Ukrainian and Polish proxies so giving DC plausible deniability. A master stroke. Genuinely admirable statecraft allied with very clever subterfuge
    I thought the latest ‘evidence’ was that Ukraine special forces did it ?

    Given how cautious Biden has been over the last two years, you theory isn’t very convincing.
    As far as the US economy is concerned, I doubt it made all that much difference. Oil and gas prices would have spiked anyway.
    (Also, the States that benefited from high oil and gas prices are... errr... Republican ones. While Democrat States tend to be energy importers.)
  • rcs1000 said:

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    Yes there are some absolute bangers on the Olivia Rodrigo album (Love Is Embarrassing, All-American Bitch) and some great ballads (eg Lacy).

    I think it's an even better album than Sour, which I really enjoyed, and above Midnights (and I'm a huge Swiftie). What I find refreshing about Olivia is that she is not pivoting to synthpop or dance or hip-hop, but towards rock - she feels like the heir to Alanis Morissette and Avril Lavigne.

    My "favourite current artists" has changed out of all recognition from the 80s and 90s when it was predominantly rock-leaning and male bands, now it is predominantly pop-leaning and female solo artists, indeed the only current guitar bands I really like are The Big Moon and Wolf Alice, and I guess at a push the Arctic Monkeys and Coldplay (who are probably not really thought of as a guitar band anyway!).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,876

    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    Very friendly Times article on Sir Keir

    Keir Starmer: my plans to reform our broken NHS

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a7a7517f-d956-4f89-8d51-8fbe93210131?shareToken=95e2d5166826d9c220686c0512fad25e

    Murdoch hedging his bets? Times goes lightly for Starmer. The Sun goes in with its boots on for Sunak.
    Papers catering to their readership I think. Your average Times reader is more liberal and has almost certainly lost patience with the Tories. The Sun's remaining readership are possibly one of the few segments of the electorate still pro-Tory.

    Plus don't underestimate embarrassment as a factor. The Sun went all in on the Tories. To the extent their political editor was once a prominent heavily connect activist. It would be profoundly embarrassing to get into bed with Labour now. Much easier for The Times to emphasise its more Labour-friendly side.
    I think The Sun might genuinely sit on the fence for this one. Say they don’t really like any of them, Sunak isn’t populist enough, and then claim bragging rights that they weren’t strictly backing the losing team when the Tories lose.

    I expect The Sun and The Mail to fully hitch themselves to the populist right after the GE (to the extent elements of them at not there already).
    I think the likeliest is grudging support. They'll say he's Sunak's a bit shit but that Starmer will put Brexit at risk and put a migrant in every home.
    Set against that, The Sun has a reputation for backing winners. Now their circulation is so much smaller, it's easier to see the Sun readership not being everyman and not wanting the same as the general public.

    I can imagine them doing a big celebrity splash on election day, with election news on page 14 or so.
    Last week The Sun led on Kyle Walker's marriage when every other paper splashed the Post Office scandal, so yes, it is easily possible.
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4653219#Comment_4653219
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    edited January 19
    rcs1000 said:

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    From those on the list, I quite like Maisie Peters too, not listened to her album (I don't really listen to albums) but stream her songs frequently. Quite a bit of good music coming out from ladies, I agree not much from the guys.

    Though for upcoming male artists my wife is a big fan of Noah Kahan, from America.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Foxy said:

    "Is this the right place for an argument?"

    "I told you once..."

    "No you didn't!"

    "Yes I did!"

    On the subject of arguments, dare I ask if the major PB betting spat a few days ago was resolved amicably or does the ISAM-kinabalu Principle still apply?
    It wasn’t resolved amicably, and I said just let him have the bet
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    rcs1000 said:

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    Yes there are some absolute bangers on the Olivia Rodrigo album (Love Is Embarrassing, All-American Bitch) and some great ballads (eg Lacy).

    I think it's an even better album than Sour, which I really enjoyed, and above Midnights (and I'm a huge Swiftie). What I find refreshing about Olivia is that she is not pivoting to synthpop or dance or hip-hop, but towards rock - she feels like the heir to Alanis Morissette and Avril Lavigne.

    My "favourite current artists" has changed out of all recognition from the 80s and 90s when it was predominantly rock-leaning and male bands, now it is predominantly pop-leaning and female solo artists, indeed the only current guitar bands I really like are The Big Moon and Wolf Alice, and I guess at a push the Arctic Monkeys and Coldplay (who are probably not really thought of as a guitar band anyway!).
    Man, if only you hadn't gone and ruined it by mentioning Coldplay.
  • More evidence that Brexit was never about improving the quality of life and health of the people in the UK, of you and your families; it’s about removing restrictions so rich people and the companies they own can become even richer as our environment degrades.

    ‘Despite Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and the other architects of Brexit promising that environmental protections would be strengthened after the vote to leave the EU, the Guardian’s analysis shows the opposite is the case.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/19/brexit-divergence-from-eu-destroying-vital-environmental-protections
  • MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    I like the block capitals. Authoritative. Presidential. Not mad.
    My children have always had calmer temper tantrums than him.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    edited January 19
    Ratters said:

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    @DoubleCarpet

    Great list. I listened to and enjoyed 6 of your top 20.

    I recommend you check out the Caroline Polachek and Young Fathers albums from last year as well.
    Many thanks Ratters! - out of interest what were the 6 that you liked?

    I actually listened to the Caroline Polachek this afternoon, and quite enjoyed it, but not quite enough for it to break into my above list - thanks for the Young Fathers recommendation too.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,245

    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    I like the block capitals. Authoritative. Presidential. Not mad.
    You can see where he's coming from.


  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,241
    TimS said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MJW said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?

    if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?

    Hmmm

    It would heavily depend on whether those themes you mention - which are largely boomer themes - get handed down to the next generation of elderly voters which by then will include a large chunk of GenX.

    European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
    Yes I agree. They need to copy Le Pen in the way she rejuvenated the French right

    The young are voting Le Pen in extraordinary numbers
    There's a basic difference between us and continental Europe though in that the struggles Western nations are facing are, there, associated with a failed social democratic establishment.

    Here younger people associate them with with a failure of a right that has been in power for 14 years and got policies through that at one point were beyond its wildest dreams but are seen as having failed even on their own terms.

    So people kicking out at that here trend left. There they trend right.

    Doubling down on that with something edgier is therefore unlikely to help. At least for now. In 10-15 years if we're still in a funk that may change. For the moment though people like Braverman, Farage re seen as part of, perhaps a lot of, the problem.
    But this is a misdiagnosis. We might have had a right wing government on paper, but in practice we have been at the extreme end of an experiment in governing by a dehumanised system of 'rights'. The Tories have failed completely, not because they were too right wing but because they didn't challenge the framework that had been entrenched under Tony Blair.

    There was a good example of the pathologies of the system yesterday where someone documented his attempts to track down his mother after she was admitted to hospital and was met with Kafkaesque obstruction.

    https://x.com/classiccarguru1/status/1747858911347032074
    Sure, that's a possibility.

    Here's another one.

    The West faces two major issues that significantly impact the path of economic growth.

    The first is demographics. We have more and more old people, and they take up an increasing share of government spending. Look at the percentage of GDP that is spent on social care plus health plus pensions and compare now to 1980. And we know this is only going to rise. More and more of peoples' income is going to be spent on looking after old people, and that's true irrespective of who the government is.

    The second is the rise of developing economies. The reality is that people in China, India, Vietnam and the like are willing to work for less than Brits. And even if that had absolutely no impact on British exports (which is optimistic), it still means there is more competition for commodities. In the past, the developed world was the dominant purchaser of oil, natural gas, pork and the like. That's simply not true anymore. And that means that the price we're going to be paying for those imports is going to be higher.

    That may all be true but it's orthogonal to the question of whether the UK government has been too right wing or not.
    'Orthogonal' - it's not normal to speak like that
    It’s a nice word though. Orthogonal.
    A German friend complained to me the other day that someone had talked about an “oligopsony” to him…
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076

    Ratters said:

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    @DoubleCarpet

    Great list. I listened to and enjoyed 6 of your top 20.

    I recommend you check out the Caroline Polachek and Young Fathers albums from last year as well.
    Many thanks Ratters! - out of interest what were the 6 that you liked?

    I actually listened to the Caroline Polachek this afternoon, and quite enjoyed it, but not quite enough for it to break into my above list - thanks for the Young Fathers recommendation too.
    My six from your list were Arlo Parks, Paramore, Mitski, Jessie Ware, Boygenius and Lana Del Rey.

    I have Olivia Rodrigo on my to listen to list but I haven't got round to it properly yet.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,245
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    Yes there are some absolute bangers on the Olivia Rodrigo album (Love Is Embarrassing, All-American Bitch) and some great ballads (eg Lacy).

    I think it's an even better album than Sour, which I really enjoyed, and above Midnights (and I'm a huge Swiftie). What I find refreshing about Olivia is that she is not pivoting to synthpop or dance or hip-hop, but towards rock - she feels like the heir to Alanis Morissette and Avril Lavigne.

    My "favourite current artists" has changed out of all recognition from the 80s and 90s when it was predominantly rock-leaning and male bands, now it is predominantly pop-leaning and female solo artists, indeed the only current guitar bands I really like are The Big Moon and Wolf Alice, and I guess at a push the Arctic Monkeys and Coldplay (who are probably not really thought of as a guitar band anyway!).
    Man, if only you hadn't gone and ruined it by mentioning Coldplay.
    Looks like autocorrect to me.

    That's what happens when you type Radioh.....
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    TimS said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MJW said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?

    if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?

    Hmmm

    It would heavily depend on whether those themes you mention - which are largely boomer themes - get handed down to the next generation of elderly voters which by then will include a large chunk of GenX.

    European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
    Yes I agree. They need to copy Le Pen in the way she rejuvenated the French right

    The young are voting Le Pen in extraordinary numbers
    There's a basic difference between us and continental Europe though in that the struggles Western nations are facing are, there, associated with a failed social democratic establishment.

    Here younger people associate them with with a failure of a right that has been in power for 14 years and got policies through that at one point were beyond its wildest dreams but are seen as having failed even on their own terms.

    So people kicking out at that here trend left. There they trend right.

    Doubling down on that with something edgier is therefore unlikely to help. At least for now. In 10-15 years if we're still in a funk that may change. For the moment though people like Braverman, Farage re seen as part of, perhaps a lot of, the problem.
    But this is a misdiagnosis. We might have had a right wing government on paper, but in practice we have been at the extreme end of an experiment in governing by a dehumanised system of 'rights'. The Tories have failed completely, not because they were too right wing but because they didn't challenge the framework that had been entrenched under Tony Blair.

    There was a good example of the pathologies of the system yesterday where someone documented his attempts to track down his mother after she was admitted to hospital and was met with Kafkaesque obstruction.

    https://x.com/classiccarguru1/status/1747858911347032074
    Sure, that's a possibility.

    Here's another one.

    The West faces two major issues that significantly impact the path of economic growth.

    The first is demographics. We have more and more old people, and they take up an increasing share of government spending. Look at the percentage of GDP that is spent on social care plus health plus pensions and compare now to 1980. And we know this is only going to rise. More and more of peoples' income is going to be spent on looking after old people, and that's true irrespective of who the government is.

    The second is the rise of developing economies. The reality is that people in China, India, Vietnam and the like are willing to work for less than Brits. And even if that had absolutely no impact on British exports (which is optimistic), it still means there is more competition for commodities. In the past, the developed world was the dominant purchaser of oil, natural gas, pork and the like. That's simply not true anymore. And that means that the price we're going to be paying for those imports is going to be higher.

    That may all be true but it's orthogonal to the question of whether the UK government has been too right wing or not.
    'Orthogonal' - it's not normal to speak like that
    It’s a nice word though. Orthogonal.
    A German friend complained to me the other day that someone had talked about an “oligopsony” to him…
    I learned only this week what a quincunx is.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708
    edited January 19
    Javier Milei is the kind of politician I approve of. He's nothing at all like Trump. Let's hope he can take Argentina back to economic sanity and prosperity.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/javier-milei-is-a-breath-of-fresh-air/

    Each year [at Davos] world leaders line up behind the idea that the answers to our countless problems simply require a bit more intervention from 3,000 people in attendance at a Swiss ski resort.

    But credit goes to the WEF this year for inviting the antidote to the conference’s misguided ideals – and giving him a platform on the centre stage. Argentina’s newly elected President Javier Milei’s 23-minute speech swiftly and eloquently dismantled the underlying assumption of the Davos conference: that the state and its friends tend to know best. In a total break with the usual platitudes spouted at Davos, Milei opted instead for an unabashed defence of free market capitalism – the only system, he said, which is really ‘morally desirable’ because of its proved outcomes for people.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    Yes there are some absolute bangers on the Olivia Rodrigo album (Love Is Embarrassing, All-American Bitch) and some great ballads (eg Lacy).

    I think it's an even better album than Sour, which I really enjoyed, and above Midnights (and I'm a huge Swiftie). What I find refreshing about Olivia is that she is not pivoting to synthpop or dance or hip-hop, but towards rock - she feels like the heir to Alanis Morissette and Avril Lavigne.

    My "favourite current artists" has changed out of all recognition from the 80s and 90s when it was predominantly rock-leaning and male bands, now it is predominantly pop-leaning and female solo artists, indeed the only current guitar bands I really like are The Big Moon and Wolf Alice, and I guess at a push the Arctic Monkeys and Coldplay (who are probably not really thought of as a guitar band anyway!).
    Man, if only you hadn't gone and ruined it by mentioning Coldplay.
    Looks like autocorrect to me.

    That's what happens when you type Radioh.....
    On a related topic (ingredients on pizza) I made white pizza with sprouts today. Sprouts on pizza are excellent, strongly recommended.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    Yes there are some absolute bangers on the Olivia Rodrigo album (Love Is Embarrassing, All-American Bitch) and some great ballads (eg Lacy).

    I think it's an even better album than Sour, which I really enjoyed, and above Midnights (and I'm a huge Swiftie). What I find refreshing about Olivia is that she is not pivoting to synthpop or dance or hip-hop, but towards rock - she feels like the heir to Alanis Morissette and Avril Lavigne.

    My "favourite current artists" has changed out of all recognition from the 80s and 90s when it was predominantly rock-leaning and male bands, now it is predominantly pop-leaning and female solo artists, indeed the only current guitar bands I really like are The Big Moon and Wolf Alice, and I guess at a push the Arctic Monkeys and Coldplay (who are probably not really thought of as a guitar band anyway!).
    Man, if only you hadn't gone and ruined it by mentioning Coldplay.
    Coldplay is excellent. Right up until the moment Chris Martin opens his mouth.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,703
    I see the first line of Johnson's latest column of piffle for pounds contains an archaic word.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    The Olivia Rodrigo album is excellent, and I'm quite fond of Boygenius too. It seems that there is very little good original stuff from male artists, but there's a fair amount of decent stuff from the ladies.
    Yes there are some absolute bangers on the Olivia Rodrigo album (Love Is Embarrassing, All-American Bitch) and some great ballads (eg Lacy).

    I think it's an even better album than Sour, which I really enjoyed, and above Midnights (and I'm a huge Swiftie). What I find refreshing about Olivia is that she is not pivoting to synthpop or dance or hip-hop, but towards rock - she feels like the heir to Alanis Morissette and Avril Lavigne.

    My "favourite current artists" has changed out of all recognition from the 80s and 90s when it was predominantly rock-leaning and male bands, now it is predominantly pop-leaning and female solo artists, indeed the only current guitar bands I really like are The Big Moon and Wolf Alice, and I guess at a push the Arctic Monkeys and Coldplay (who are probably not really thought of as a guitar band anyway!).
    Man, if only you hadn't gone and ruined it by mentioning Coldplay.
    Well done for remaining stoic through 'heir to Avril Lavigne'.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kinabalu said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @keiranpedley
    Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?

    Leader satisfaction ratings
    @IpsosUK

    Dec 23. Sunak.
    Sat 21%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -48

    Jul 22. Johnson.
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -45

    Oct 22 Truss
    Sat 16%
    Dissat 67%
    Net: -51

    Dec 19 Corbyn
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 68%
    Net: -44

    Of course he is.

    Some of us have been saying that for over a year.
    Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.

    But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
    And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.

    At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...

    Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
    The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
    With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
    I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
    Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.


    *as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
    Er, it’s quite obvious

    Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central

    I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”

    That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
    You're missing some of the complexity here. Actually there's also something quintessentially English about Corbyn. His allotment. His fondness for making jam. His deep love of London. His support of Arsenal. His unerring politeness (usually) and his reluctance to 'personalise' politics (reminiscent of Tony Benn's 'policies not personalities' mantra). And, even his penchant for attending marches for every popular left-wing cause is a fine English tradition for those on the left.
    In conclusion, he's not atypical of many left-wing English gentlemen of a certain age influenced by the postwar socialist movement.

    So you're wrong. He loves his country. He just has a very different vision of it from you. And no, I'm not a fan of his.
    Six likes.

    Jesus Christ.
    Why? Seems logical to me. Like you I am no fan of Corbyn (to put it mildly), that doesn't mean he doesn't love his country even if you (like me) believe he is completely deluded in his politics and actually dangerous.The two positions are not incompatible.
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kinabalu said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @keiranpedley
    Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?

    Leader satisfaction ratings
    @IpsosUK

    Dec 23. Sunak.
    Sat 21%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -48

    Jul 22. Johnson.
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -45

    Oct 22 Truss
    Sat 16%
    Dissat 67%
    Net: -51

    Dec 19 Corbyn
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 68%
    Net: -44

    Of course he is.

    Some of us have been saying that for over a year.
    Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.

    But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
    And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.

    At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...

    Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
    The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
    With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
    I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
    Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.


    *as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
    Er, it’s quite obvious

    Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central

    I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”

    That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
    You're missing some of the complexity here. Actually there's also something quintessentially English about Corbyn. His allotment. His fondness for making jam. His deep love of London. His support of Arsenal. His unerring politeness (usually) and his reluctance to 'personalise' politics (reminiscent of Tony Benn's 'policies not personalities' mantra). And, even his penchant for attending marches for every popular left-wing cause is a fine English tradition for those on the left.
    In conclusion, he's not atypical of many left-wing English gentlemen of a certain age influenced by the postwar socialist movement.

    So you're wrong. He loves his country. He just has a very different vision of it from you. And no, I'm not a fan of his.
    Six likes.

    Jesus Christ.
    Why? Seems logical to me. Like you I am no fan of Corbyn (to put it mildly), that doesn't mean he doesn't love his country even if you (like me) believe he is completely deluded in his politics and actually dangerous.The two positions are not incompatible.
    9 likes for Northern Al now.

    Casino Royale hates the vision for the country of the man who got 12.9m votes in 2017 and still thinks Corbyn does not love his Country because he wants the best for its poorest citizens and wants to make their lives better.

    Equally you could argue CR is the one to hate his country if it doesn't conform to his narrow right wing vision rather than celebrating the breadth of viewpoints of this wonderful Country like Jezza and me!
    Yes, it's a narrow right-wing vision to oppose the Russian state carrying out assassinations with chemical weapons on our own soil.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    Thanks Casino,

    So in all honesty, I liked all of these albums, to a greater or lesser degree (there were a handful which I listened to that didn't make the cut and which I didn't keep in my collection - Daughter, Metallica, Miley Cyrus). It is actually quite difficult to rank them in some instances but this is my final list.

    And I'm certainly very aware that I'm pretty atypical for someone of my age group - most of my friends stopped listening to music in 1990 or thereabouts, but personally, I think pretty much every year since popular music began has had some great music and some complete rubbish - yes even the 60s - it's just that a lot of rubbish from earlier eras doesn't get played now, but IMHO the greats of the current era stand up well against those of earlier times.

    I consider myself very lucky that I like a lot of modern music, as there is always new stuff to look forward to (albums are to music as elections are to politics :smiley: ).

    But certainly, there are some albums in my list that appeared in a lot of 2023 best of lists: Depeche Mode, Mitski, PJ Harvey, EBTG, The Japanese House, OMD, Blur, Jessie Ware, Boygenius, Slowdive, Lana Del Rey, Olivia Rodrigo.

    Equally however, there are quite a few albums on my list that appeared on only a few or no year-end lists: Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Holly Humberstone, Molly Burch, Jorja Smith, Gabrielle Aplin, Maisie Peters, Freya Ridings.

    The real "find" of 2023 for me was Freya Ridings - Blood Orange (her 2nd album) didn't appear in any best of lists that I saw, but I absolutely loved it.

    So yes I think it's certainly true, depending on the publication, that they will favour certain kinds of albums, and obviously my list is slightly biased depending on how much I liked the artist to start with.

    Certainly I would never either like or not like an artist just because they were huge, or obscure, or critically acclaimed, or sneered at - in general most of my favourite artists tend to be quite/very successful, but not in all cases, and often it's the unexpected niche artists who can be the most rewarding.

    I hope that all makes sense!
    Thanks. I did enjoy Depeche Mode's new album, actually.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708

    TimS said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MJW said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    How would a full on proper right wing Farage-led Tory party perform?

    if they got serious about immigration, and culture wars, combined with some rank populism about the health service, British biscuits, gardening, lovely old ladies, and the army, I reckon they could squeak a narrow majority in 2028 - EXCEPT that Farage will be 64 by then. Too old?

    Hmmm

    It would heavily depend on whether those themes you mention - which are largely boomer themes - get handed down to the next generation of elderly voters which by then will include a large chunk of GenX.

    European populism is less nostalgic than our current Dad's Army version. It's more direct culture war - immigration, fear of Islam, and whatever cultural mores work in that country (gender politics, religion, anti-environmentalism etc). I think Farage and the Tories would need to wean themselves off the grumpy old man down pub voter and on to something younger and harder edged. Braverman potentially shows the way.
    Yes I agree. They need to copy Le Pen in the way she rejuvenated the French right

    The young are voting Le Pen in extraordinary numbers
    There's a basic difference between us and continental Europe though in that the struggles Western nations are facing are, there, associated with a failed social democratic establishment.

    Here younger people associate them with with a failure of a right that has been in power for 14 years and got policies through that at one point were beyond its wildest dreams but are seen as having failed even on their own terms.

    So people kicking out at that here trend left. There they trend right.

    Doubling down on that with something edgier is therefore unlikely to help. At least for now. In 10-15 years if we're still in a funk that may change. For the moment though people like Braverman, Farage re seen as part of, perhaps a lot of, the problem.
    But this is a misdiagnosis. We might have had a right wing government on paper, but in practice we have been at the extreme end of an experiment in governing by a dehumanised system of 'rights'. The Tories have failed completely, not because they were too right wing but because they didn't challenge the framework that had been entrenched under Tony Blair.

    There was a good example of the pathologies of the system yesterday where someone documented his attempts to track down his mother after she was admitted to hospital and was met with Kafkaesque obstruction.

    https://x.com/classiccarguru1/status/1747858911347032074
    Sure, that's a possibility.

    Here's another one.

    The West faces two major issues that significantly impact the path of economic growth.

    The first is demographics. We have more and more old people, and they take up an increasing share of government spending. Look at the percentage of GDP that is spent on social care plus health plus pensions and compare now to 1980. And we know this is only going to rise. More and more of peoples' income is going to be spent on looking after old people, and that's true irrespective of who the government is.

    The second is the rise of developing economies. The reality is that people in China, India, Vietnam and the like are willing to work for less than Brits. And even if that had absolutely no impact on British exports (which is optimistic), it still means there is more competition for commodities. In the past, the developed world was the dominant purchaser of oil, natural gas, pork and the like. That's simply not true anymore. And that means that the price we're going to be paying for those imports is going to be higher.

    That may all be true but it's orthogonal to the question of whether the UK government has been too right wing or not.
    'Orthogonal' - it's not normal to speak like that
    It’s a nice word though. Orthogonal.
    A German friend complained to me the other day that someone had talked about an “oligopsony” to him…
    Few buyers - e.g. for military/defence products

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631
    geoffw said:

    Javier Milei is the kind of politician I approve of. He's nothing at all like Trump. Let's hope he can take Argentina back to economic sanity and prosperity.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/javier-milei-is-a-breath-of-fresh-air/

    Each year [at Davos] world leaders line up behind the idea that the answers to our countless problems simply require a bit more intervention from 3,000 people in attendance at a Swiss ski resort.

    But credit goes to the WEF this year for inviting the antidote to the conference’s misguided ideals – and giving him a platform on the centre stage. Argentina’s newly elected President Javier Milei’s 23-minute speech swiftly and eloquently dismantled the underlying assumption of the Davos conference: that the state and its friends tend to know best. In a total break with the usual platitudes spouted at Davos, Milei opted instead for an unabashed defence of free market capitalism – the only system, he said, which is really ‘morally desirable’ because of its proved outcomes for people.

    Well, let's see how it works before proclaiming him the Messiah.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408
    Edit: Freya Ridings sounds nice. Got a KT Tunstall/Adele feel to it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    edited January 19

    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    I like the block capitals. Authoritative. Presidential. Not mad.
    You can see where he's coming from.


    No one more stable and non-authoritarian than Roman Emperors of course.

    Granted the writing style wasn't a sign of that, but still.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,708
    edited January 19
    Foxy said:

    geoffw said:

    Javier Milei is the kind of politician I approve of. He's nothing at all like Trump. Let's hope he can take Argentina back to economic sanity and prosperity.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/javier-milei-is-a-breath-of-fresh-air/

    Each year [at Davos] world leaders line up behind the idea that the answers to our countless problems simply require a bit more intervention from 3,000 people in attendance at a Swiss ski resort.

    But credit goes to the WEF this year for inviting the antidote to the conference’s misguided ideals – and giving him a platform on the centre stage. Argentina’s newly elected President Javier Milei’s 23-minute speech swiftly and eloquently dismantled the underlying assumption of the Davos conference: that the state and its friends tend to know best. In a total break with the usual platitudes spouted at Davos, Milei opted instead for an unabashed defence of free market capitalism – the only system, he said, which is really ‘morally desirable’ because of its proved outcomes for people.

    Well, let's see how it works before proclaiming him the Messiah.
    He was previously bigged up as a very naughty boy though

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,815

    Double Carpet’s year-end roundup – Part 2

    2023 best albums and 2024 preview

    So I ended up with 21 albums released last year, ahead of the 15 from 2022 but well behind 2021’s record haul of 32. Once again male vocals are very much in the minority, with only three of the 2023 albums featuring them predominantly. All the albums below are in my Spotify “album collection” apart from Blur and Lana Del Rey being on CD, which were acquired on release day.

    Positions 21 to 11 are as follows, starting with 21:

    Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Depeche Mode, Mitski, Holly Humberstone, PJ Harvey, Everything But The Girl, The Japanese House, Molly Burch, with OMD in 11th place.

    Positions 10 to 1 (release date, UK album chart position, UK sales certification if any):

    10 Blur - The Ballad Of Darren (21 July, #1, silver)

    9 Jorja Smith – Falling Or Flying (29 Sep, #3)

    8 Jessie Ware – That! Feels Good! (28 Apr, #3)

    7 Gabrielle Aplin – Phosphorescent (6 Jan, #15)

    6 Slowdive – Everything Is Alive (1 Sep, #6)

    5 Boygenius – The Record (31 Mar, #1, silver)

    4 Maisie Peters – The Good Witch (23 June, #1)

    3 Freya Ridings – Blood Orange (28 Apr, #7)

    2 Lana Del Rey – Did You Know That There's A Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (24 Mar, #1, gold)

    1 Olivia Rodrigo – Guts (8 Sep, #1, gold)

    For 2024, the new Green Day album came out today, and the debut from NewDad is out next Friday, followed by the debut album from the much-hyped The Last Dinner Party on 2 February and the new Ariana Grande album on 8 March. Then on 22 March I’m looking forward to the new album from The Staves (my first trip of 2024 to buy a new album on CD on release day), with Waxahatchee on the same day and Ride on 29 March.

    New albums are also expected from Bat For Lashes, Coldplay, Dua Lipa, Paul Weller, Sam Fender, and Sia, while in the “potential” new album category are Haim, London Grammar, Lorde, Rihanna, and U2; Radiohead’s legion of fans on PB may be disappointed to know that I have downgraded them to “longshot” for 2024 but a 2025 album could be possible.

    Finally, if you’ve made it this far, very best wishes to everyone for the year ahead, with a special mention as always to those who keep the PB show on the road, and best of luck with your betting in 2024. Thanks to Benpointer for running the competition – even though I didn’t take part I’ll plump for Trump to beat Biden and a Labour majority of 50.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    I recognise your passion for new music is sincere, and you really love and enjoy exploring new albums.

    However, in all honesty, are any of them actually any good? Or is this the music equivalent of poncey metro art galleries that, if you're in the in-crowd, you know you're supposed to like?
    Thanks Casino,

    So in all honesty, I liked all of these albums, to a greater or lesser degree (there were a handful which I listened to that didn't make the cut and which I didn't keep in my collection - Daughter, Metallica, Miley Cyrus). It is actually quite difficult to rank them in some instances but this is my final list.

    And I'm certainly very aware that I'm pretty atypical for someone of my age group - most of my friends stopped listening to music in 1990 or thereabouts, but personally, I think pretty much every year since popular music began has had some great music and some complete rubbish - yes even the 60s - it's just that a lot of rubbish from earlier eras doesn't get played now, but IMHO the greats of the current era stand up well against those of earlier times.

    I consider myself very lucky that I like a lot of modern music, as there is always new stuff to look forward to (albums are to music as elections are to politics :smiley: ).

    But certainly, there are some albums in my list that appeared in a lot of 2023 best of lists: Depeche Mode, Mitski, PJ Harvey, EBTG, The Japanese House, OMD, Blur, Jessie Ware, Boygenius, Slowdive, Lana Del Rey, Olivia Rodrigo.

    Equally however, there are quite a few albums on my list that appeared on only a few or no year-end lists: Arlo Parks, Paramore, Ellie Goulding, Holly Humberstone, Molly Burch, Jorja Smith, Gabrielle Aplin, Maisie Peters, Freya Ridings.

    The real "find" of 2023 for me was Freya Ridings - Blood Orange (her 2nd album) didn't appear in any best of lists that I saw, but I absolutely loved it.

    So yes I think it's certainly true, depending on the publication, that they will favour certain kinds of albums, and obviously my list is slightly biased depending on how much I liked the artist to start with.

    Certainly I would never either like or not like an artist just because they were huge, or obscure, or critically acclaimed, or sneered at - in general most of my favourite artists tend to be quite/very successful, but not in all cases, and often it's the unexpected niche artists who can be the most rewarding.

    I hope that all makes sense!
    Thanks. I did enjoy Depeche Mode's new album, actually.
    It's the only album on DC's list I bought all year!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,659

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kinabalu said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @keiranpedley
    Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?

    Leader satisfaction ratings
    @IpsosUK

    Dec 23. Sunak.
    Sat 21%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -48

    Jul 22. Johnson.
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -45

    Oct 22 Truss
    Sat 16%
    Dissat 67%
    Net: -51

    Dec 19 Corbyn
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 68%
    Net: -44

    Of course he is.

    Some of us have been saying that for over a year.
    Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.

    But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
    And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.

    At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...

    Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
    The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
    With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
    I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
    Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.


    *as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
    Er, it’s quite obvious

    Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central

    I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”

    That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
    You're missing some of the complexity here. Actually there's also something quintessentially English about Corbyn. His allotment. His fondness for making jam. His deep love of London. His support of Arsenal. His unerring politeness (usually) and his reluctance to 'personalise' politics (reminiscent of Tony Benn's 'policies not personalities' mantra). And, even his penchant for attending marches for every popular left-wing cause is a fine English tradition for those on the left.
    In conclusion, he's not atypical of many left-wing English gentlemen of a certain age influenced by the postwar socialist movement.

    So you're wrong. He loves his country. He just has a very different vision of it from you. And no, I'm not a fan of his.
    Six likes.

    Jesus Christ.
    Why? Seems logical to me. Like you I am no fan of Corbyn (to put it mildly), that doesn't mean he doesn't love his country even if you (like me) believe he is completely deluded in his politics and actually dangerous.The two positions are not incompatible.
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kinabalu said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @keiranpedley
    Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?

    Leader satisfaction ratings
    @IpsosUK

    Dec 23. Sunak.
    Sat 21%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -48

    Jul 22. Johnson.
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -45

    Oct 22 Truss
    Sat 16%
    Dissat 67%
    Net: -51

    Dec 19 Corbyn
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 68%
    Net: -44

    Of course he is.

    Some of us have been saying that for over a year.
    Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.

    But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
    And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.

    At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...

    Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
    The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
    With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
    I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
    Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.


    *as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
    Er, it’s quite obvious

    Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central

    I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”

    That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
    You're missing some of the complexity here. Actually there's also something quintessentially English about Corbyn. His allotment. His fondness for making jam. His deep love of London. His support of Arsenal. His unerring politeness (usually) and his reluctance to 'personalise' politics (reminiscent of Tony Benn's 'policies not personalities' mantra). And, even his penchant for attending marches for every popular left-wing cause is a fine English tradition for those on the left.
    In conclusion, he's not atypical of many left-wing English gentlemen of a certain age influenced by the postwar socialist movement.

    So you're wrong. He loves his country. He just has a very different vision of it from you. And no, I'm not a fan of his.
    Six likes.

    Jesus Christ.
    Why? Seems logical to me. Like you I am no fan of Corbyn (to put it mildly), that doesn't mean he doesn't love his country even if you (like me) believe he is completely deluded in his politics and actually dangerous.The two positions are not incompatible.
    9 likes for Northern Al now.

    Casino Royale hates the vision for the country of the man who got 12.9m votes in 2017 and still thinks Corbyn does not love his Country because he wants the best for its poorest citizens and wants to make their lives better.

    Equally you could argue CR is the one to hate his country if it doesn't conform to his narrow right wing vision rather than celebrating the breadth of viewpoints of this wonderful Country like Jezza and me!
    Yes, it's a narrow right-wing vision to oppose the Russian state carrying out assassinations with chemical weapons on our own soil.
    No its not but thinking a man hates his country because he disagrees with you is
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    Foxy said:

    geoffw said:

    Javier Milei is the kind of politician I approve of. He's nothing at all like Trump. Let's hope he can take Argentina back to economic sanity and prosperity.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/javier-milei-is-a-breath-of-fresh-air/

    Each year [at Davos] world leaders line up behind the idea that the answers to our countless problems simply require a bit more intervention from 3,000 people in attendance at a Swiss ski resort.

    But credit goes to the WEF this year for inviting the antidote to the conference’s misguided ideals – and giving him a platform on the centre stage. Argentina’s newly elected President Javier Milei’s 23-minute speech swiftly and eloquently dismantled the underlying assumption of the Davos conference: that the state and its friends tend to know best. In a total break with the usual platitudes spouted at Davos, Milei opted instead for an unabashed defence of free market capitalism – the only system, he said, which is really ‘morally desirable’ because of its proved outcomes for people.

    Well, let's see how it works before proclaiming him the Messiah.
    He could soon be performing miracles, making people disappear.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    It’s amazing how desensitized some people have become to Trump .

    A man devoid of even a shred of humanity or morality .

    From mocking the disabled to repeating Nazi tropes, and yet some just give him a free pass. Quite despicable.

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    nico679 said:

    It’s amazing how desensitized some people have become to Trump .

    A man devoid of even a shred of humanity or morality .

    From mocking the disabled to repeating Nazi tropes, and yet some just give him a free pass. Quite despicable.

    just shows how bad the people up against him then if the public still hold to him .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kinabalu said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @keiranpedley
    Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?

    Leader satisfaction ratings
    @IpsosUK

    Dec 23. Sunak.
    Sat 21%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -48

    Jul 22. Johnson.
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -45

    Oct 22 Truss
    Sat 16%
    Dissat 67%
    Net: -51

    Dec 19 Corbyn
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 68%
    Net: -44

    Of course he is.

    Some of us have been saying that for over a year.
    Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.

    But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
    And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.

    At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...

    Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
    The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
    With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
    I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
    Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.


    *as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
    Er, it’s quite obvious

    Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central

    I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”

    That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
    You're missing some of the complexity here. Actually there's also something quintessentially English about Corbyn. His allotment. His fondness for making jam. His deep love of London. His support of Arsenal. His unerring politeness (usually) and his reluctance to 'personalise' politics (reminiscent of Tony Benn's 'policies not personalities' mantra). And, even his penchant for attending marches for every popular left-wing cause is a fine English tradition for those on the left.
    In conclusion, he's not atypical of many left-wing English gentlemen of a certain age influenced by the postwar socialist movement.

    So you're wrong. He loves his country. He just has a very different vision of it from you. And no, I'm not a fan of his.
    Six likes.

    Jesus Christ.
    Why? Seems logical to me. Like you I am no fan of Corbyn (to put it mildly), that doesn't mean he doesn't love his country even if you (like me) believe he is completely deluded in his politics and actually dangerous.The two positions are not incompatible.
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kinabalu said:

    MJW said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @keiranpedley
    Is Rishi Sunak an electoral liability for the Conservatives?

    Leader satisfaction ratings
    @IpsosUK

    Dec 23. Sunak.
    Sat 21%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -48

    Jul 22. Johnson.
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 69%
    Net: -45

    Oct 22 Truss
    Sat 16%
    Dissat 67%
    Net: -51

    Dec 19 Corbyn
    Sat 24%
    Dissat 68%
    Net: -44

    Of course he is.

    Some of us have been saying that for over a year.
    Alternatively, a large part of the problem for the Conservatives is unfixable under any leader.

    But that Corbyn comparison ought to terrify them.
    And Johnson's ratings are almost identical to Corbin's by the end.

    At least no-one in Labour is saying that Corbyn wasn't such a bad campaigner; let's give him another try...

    Or, someone probably is, but no-one is listening
    The difference is that Boris was surrounded by scandal at the time of those ratings, the others were just doing their job
    With Corbyn aren't we forgetting the antisemitism scandal? He was never particularly popular but along with his dire Skripals stuff it fatally holed perceptions of him and reduced what chance he had of convincing people he wasn't quite the far left crank opponents said of him. Not that he'd have won but 2019 might have been more like 2017.
    I think Salisbury hurt him a lot. I thought so at the time. "Jeremy, Jeremy, Jeremy", I remember thinking, when he started digging that hole for himself. There was no upside there whatsoever. It handed an arsenal of ammo to all those pushing the 'dislikes his own country' line.
    Corbyn is a case study on why good campaigners often make terrible politicians. Though his behaviour on Salisbury was inexplicable. I kind of get* why he didn't take action on antisemitism, as I'm certain he doesn't consider himself to be antisemitic at all, and in his mind that means that the accusations were just wrong. But Salisbury is pretty open-and-shut - and was not only an assassination attempt, but the recklessness of it resulted in the death of an innocent, as well as serious health consequences to boot.


    *as in, I don't agree with him, but I understand his behaviour - unlike his Salisbury response.
    Er, it’s quite obvious

    Corbyn hates Britain and the west. He hates white British people apart from the few solid lefties he can rely on as friends. He thinks we are all gammony imperialists and colonialists and slavishly united with the hated America and Israel. Especially people who live in Salisbury. That’s Tory central

    I genuinely think he doesn’t give a fuck if white British people die as long as the murderers are some anti western type. Muslims, Russians, Chinese, the IRA, Boko Haram, doesn’t matter, he approves of anyone who opposes “us”

    That is the mindset of Jeremy Corbyn. Soaked in adolescent lefty bigotry and too stupid to grow up
    You're missing some of the complexity here. Actually there's also something quintessentially English about Corbyn. His allotment. His fondness for making jam. His deep love of London. His support of Arsenal. His unerring politeness (usually) and his reluctance to 'personalise' politics (reminiscent of Tony Benn's 'policies not personalities' mantra). And, even his penchant for attending marches for every popular left-wing cause is a fine English tradition for those on the left.
    In conclusion, he's not atypical of many left-wing English gentlemen of a certain age influenced by the postwar socialist movement.

    So you're wrong. He loves his country. He just has a very different vision of it from you. And no, I'm not a fan of his.
    Six likes.

    Jesus Christ.
    Why? Seems logical to me. Like you I am no fan of Corbyn (to put it mildly), that doesn't mean he doesn't love his country even if you (like me) believe he is completely deluded in his politics and actually dangerous.The two positions are not incompatible.
    9 likes for Northern Al now.

    Casino Royale hates the vision for the country of the man who got 12.9m votes in 2017 and still thinks Corbyn does not love his Country because he wants the best for its poorest citizens and wants to make their lives better.

    Equally you could argue CR is the one to hate his country if it doesn't conform to his narrow right wing vision rather than celebrating the breadth of viewpoints of this wonderful Country like Jezza and me!
    Yes, it's a narrow right-wing vision to oppose the Russian state carrying out assassinations with chemical weapons on our own soil.
    No its not but thinking a man hates his country because he disagrees with you is
    You're a fanatic and blind to it.

    Thus, discussion with you is pointless.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408
    nico679 said:

    It’s amazing how desensitized some people have become to Trump .

    A man devoid of even a shred of humanity or morality .

    From mocking the disabled to repeating Nazi tropes, and yet some just give him a free pass. Quite despicable.

    His talent is to provoke, which generates a reaction and thus amplifies him.

    And you fall for it every single time.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,517
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Moon contd.

    ...The Japanese attempt to land on the Moon just 100m from its target is "unprecedented", says Dr Emma Gatti, a former Nasa scientist and editor-in-chief of SpaceWatch Global.

    Most spacecraft touch down kilometres away from their intended target, she tells the BBC.

    Apollo 11 - the spacecraft that landed the first humans on the moon - landed around 6.5 kilometres from the target, which is "a bit like if you wanted to land in Buckingham Palace and you arrive in Brixton," she says.

    She adds that it would be "historic" for Japan - a country much smaller than the United States or China - to join them in becoming only the fifth country to land on the Moon...

    Name the countries that have landed on the moon except the us....oh right you cant because it is zero
    THe USSR, China and India. All have made successful soft moon landings.
    With humans which was what was specified
    No it wasn't. The Apollo 11 example was just given as it is the most famous of all moon landings. The comment was concerning moon landings. Hence the fact it even says explicitely "the fifth country to land on the Moon". It is not our fault you are incapbale of basic comprehension.
    By that definition beagle was a mars landing....it wasnt it was we crashed something into mars
    Nope because it specifically references succesful soft landings - which have been achieved by the 5 nations mentioned. Stop squirming.
  • nico679 said:

    It’s amazing how desensitized some people have become to Trump .

    A man devoid of even a shred of humanity or morality .

    From mocking the disabled to repeating Nazi tropes, and yet some just give him a free pass. Quite despicable.

    just shows how bad the people up against him then if the public still hold to him .
    Or it shows how bad the people who support him are.

    A significant minority of the American electorate really are deplorable.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    nico679 said:

    It’s amazing how desensitized some people have become to Trump .

    A man devoid of even a shred of humanity or morality .

    From mocking the disabled to repeating Nazi tropes, and yet some just give him a free pass. Quite despicable.

    His talent is to provoke, which generates a reaction and thus amplifies him.

    And you fall for it every single time.
    Saying he’s just trying to provoke is a way to diminish his actions , it implies he’s not the real person we see . This is giving him a free pass . I’m not the one falling for anything .

    Maya Angelou’s words ring true .
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,241

    My God, if we're having this much debate over what constitutes a spacecraft 'landing', I hope to goodness no evil sod comes in here and mentions the 'manned' versus 'crewed' debate.... ;)

    How about firing arrows… 😈
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    edited January 19

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,370

    Johnson is on about "the Western liberal ­intelligentsia" in a negative way in his latest pile of Mail crap.

    Surely there can be no finer, indeed higher, member of this dangerous caste than an English Old Etonian who read Classics at Oxbridge, edited the Spectator and went on to be an MP, foreign sec and then PM?

    Surely?

    Am I mad?

    His first wife was called Allegra for crying out loud.

    What a fucking hypocrite.

    I don't think Johnson can be considered 'intelligentsia.'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,370
    edited January 19
    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    It's a very easy decision.

    But the decision will be made not on the basis of the facts or the law but that two thirds of the justices of the Supreme Court are just as mad, bad dishonest and treasonous as he is.

    That probably makes it very easy for them, to be fair.

    Watching large chunks of America collapse in thrall to a failed con artist with a desperate need to overcome his insecurities would be pitiful if the potential consequences weren't so serious.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    If Biden ordered the assassination of Mr Trump, then that would be ok then?
    As long as he’s not impeached and a two thirds majority of the Senate finds him guilty. In which case he would lose immunity.

    That is literally what Trump and his lawyers are arguing.

    So with a third of the Senate plus one on your side, no problem.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,988

    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    I like the block capitals. Authoritative. Presidential. Not mad.
    You can see where he's coming from.


    He’s a chiseller rather than a knapper?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ydoethur said:

    Johnson is on about "the Western liberal ­intelligentsia" in a negative way in his latest pile of Mail crap.

    Surely there can be no finer, indeed higher, member of this dangerous caste than an English Old Etonian who read Classics at Oxbridge, edited the Spectator and went on to be an MP, foreign sec and then PM?

    Surely?

    Am I mad?

    His first wife was called Allegra for crying out loud.

    What a fucking hypocrite.

    I don't think Johnson can be considered 'intelligentsia.'
    Salt of the Earth?
  • rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    Would be absolutely hilarious if that happened, though Biden winning both is considerably more likely in my eyes.

    Be funny to see how many suddenly start to think the popular vote is what matters afterall if that happens.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,370
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    If Biden ordered the assassination of Mr Trump, then that would be ok then?
    As long as he’s not impeached and a two thirds majority of the Senate finds him guilty. In which case he would lose immunity.

    That is literally what Trump and his lawyers are arguing.

    So with a third of the Senate plus one on your side, no problem.
    Doesn't Biden have ultimate control of Trump's security detail?

    Have his lawyers really thought this through?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    I've covered that with my "5% chance" ;-)

    Seriously, what a delicious irony that would be. Can you imagine how incandescent Trump will be if he wins the popular vote and loses the election - and how he will then have to explain why that was ok in 2016 but is an 'election steal' in 2024?
  • ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Hmmm.


    If Biden ordered the assassination of Mr Trump, then that would be ok then?
    As long as he’s not impeached and a two thirds majority of the Senate finds him guilty. In which case he would lose immunity.

    That is literally what Trump and his lawyers are arguing.

    So with a third of the Senate plus one on your side, no problem.
    Doesn't Biden have ultimate control of Trump's security detail?

    Have his lawyers really thought this through?
    Its disturbing that the thread is a question which is not a QTWAIN.

    Thank you for restoring balance to the force.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,370
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    Republicans aren't very good at winning the popular vote. And what does Trump really offer to people who aren't swivel-eyed loons? Record corruption, violence, catastrophic economic mismanagement and the abandonment of every policy he was elected on. Not too great a pitch.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    So, cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias is the answer.

    Got it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    I want to bet on that too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    I've covered that with my "5% chance" ;-)

    Seriously, what a delicious irony that would be. Can you imagine how incandescent Trump will be if he wins the popular vote and loses the election - and how he will then have to explain why that was ok in 2016 but is an 'election steal' in 2024?
    He won't think that is a contradiction at all: he will claim he won, and will call for the people to rise up and overthrow the government.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    So, cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias is the answer.

    Got it.
    Cognitive dissonance? Are you sure that was the term you meant to use?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,370

    Nigelb said:
    Innkeeper charged for allowing carpenter and his pregnant wife to sleep in his manger.
    He made an ass of himself.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,370
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I think the value lies with Trump winning the popular vote which floats between 7/2 and 4/1.

    Several polls show him ahead and, where Biden is, it's only by 1% or so, and Clinton only beat him by 2.1% in 2016.

    Provided he gets selected, and there's no jailing or a 3rd party splitter, then it's probably a 40% chance and not a 25% chance.

    No, I don't think Trump has much chance of winning the popular vote - 5% chance maybe.

    I'd rate him at 30-40% to win the Electoral College though. Worryingly.
    I don't see how you derive those odds from the evidence, other than asserting what you'd like to be true.

    Even for those of us who loathe him this article explains why many do not:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-should-watch-america-and-learn-from-its-mistakes/
    I can't read the article (paywalled). My thinking is as follows:

    - Trump hasn't got above 47% of the national vote in either of his two presidential elections.
    - The chart (below) posted on the previous thread header shows how his support could slacken if he is convicted of a felony; I think there's a >50% chance he will be convicted before the election.
    - Trump is a magnet for GOP voters but an anathema to Democrat voters and, most importantly, to a lot of Independent voters.
    - The US economy continues to improve steadily.
    - Biden is a strong and successful campaigner.

    All of these things may not be enough to stop Trump winning the popular vote, hence my 5% chance.

    image
    I would like to bet on Trump to win the popular vote, but Biden to win the Presidency.

    Biden's votes, see, are about to get a lot more efficient. He's going to drop a lot in New York, and a fair amount in California. But the Dems will hold those States. Biden is also highly likely to go backwards a fair margin in Texas.

    On the other hand, he's not going to drop a lot in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Indeed, he might actually see his margin increase slightly in those States.

    That sets up a situation where Biden ends up down a couple of points, but winning the electoral college.
    I've covered that with my "5% chance" ;-)

    Seriously, what a delicious irony that would be. Can you imagine how incandescent Trump will be if he wins the popular vote and loses the election - and how he will then have to explain why that was ok in 2016 but is an 'election steal' in 2024?
    He won't think
    I'd have just stopped there.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    DavidL said:
    Timely evidence for the 4th point in my, er, 'cognitive dissonance' post.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    nico679 said:

    It’s amazing how desensitized some people have become to Trump .

    A man devoid of even a shred of humanity or morality .

    From mocking the disabled to repeating Nazi tropes, and yet some just give him a free pass. Quite despicable.

    just shows how bad the people up against him then if the public still hold to him .
    I disagree. I think what we have seen with Trump, and some other similar characters, is that the old assumption that even if we disagree politically we broadly share the same values about rules, precedent, law and so on is a false assumption. A lot of people accross the political spectrum will take a "win" however it is achieved. We kid ourselves if we think that the rule of law and respect for democracy and its institutions are very widely shared beliefs. I don't know if this a new thing, or we are just seeing it clearly now, or possibly there is a diminution of playing fair as it's been a long time in the West since we've seen where such dangerous paths can lead.

    Are Trump's opponents rubbish? Yes. But that doesn't make supporting him acceptable, people used to hold politicians to higher standards that would have rendered Trump unelectable, that's clearly no longer the case.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    glw said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s amazing how desensitized some people have become to Trump .

    A man devoid of even a shred of humanity or morality .

    From mocking the disabled to repeating Nazi tropes, and yet some just give him a free pass. Quite despicable.

    just shows how bad the people up against him then if the public still hold to him .
    I disagree. I think what we have seen with Trump, and some other similar characters, is that the old assumption that even if we disagree politically we broadly share the same values about rules, precedent, law and so on is a false assumption. A lot of people accross the political spectrum will take a "win" however it is achieved. We kid ourselves if we think that the rule of law and respect for democracy and its institutions are very widely shared beliefs. I don't know if this a new thing, or we are just seeing it clearly now, or possibly there is a diminution of playing fair as it's been a long time in the West since we've seen where such dangerous paths can lead.

    Are Trump's opponents rubbish? Yes. But that doesn't make supporting him acceptable, people used to hold politicians to higher standards that would have rendered Trump unelectable, that's clearly no longer the case.
    One thing is the complicity of moderate Republican leaders in offering a permission structure for people to support Trump.

    Even those who broadly oppose him are very quiet and unwilling to publicly prosecute the case against him - so of course lots of voters see the justified objections to him as another partisan argument in which they plump for their guy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    geoffw said:

    Javier Milei is the kind of politician I approve of. He's nothing at all like Trump. Let's hope he can take Argentina back to economic sanity and prosperity.
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/javier-milei-is-a-breath-of-fresh-air/

    Each year [at Davos] world leaders line up behind the idea that the answers to our countless problems simply require a bit more intervention from 3,000 people in attendance at a Swiss ski resort.

    But credit goes to the WEF this year for inviting the antidote to the conference’s misguided ideals – and giving him a platform on the centre stage. Argentina’s newly elected President Javier Milei’s 23-minute speech swiftly and eloquently dismantled the underlying assumption of the Davos conference: that the state and its friends tend to know best. In a total break with the usual platitudes spouted at Davos, Milei opted instead for an unabashed defence of free market capitalism – the only system, he said, which is really ‘morally desirable’ because of its proved outcomes for people.

    Arguably a necessary corrective to the last century in Argentina, but his analysis is by assertion rather than evidence.
    Just another dogmatist.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    MJW said:

    One thing is the complicity of moderate Republican leaders in offering a permission structure for people to support Trump.

    Even those who broadly oppose him are very quiet and unwilling to publicly prosecute the case against him - so of course lots of voters see the justified objections to him as another partisan argument in which they plump for their guy.

    The GOP at a leadership level is full of people who hate Trump but are now beholden to him. They are spineless to a degree previously only seen in authoritarian states where if you don't applaud the Leader long enough you might disappear. The GOP doesn't deserve a comeback after Trump it warrants destruction.

  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Today the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had a productive discussion on how we are delivering record funding for the NHS & cutting waiting lists while meeting members of the public.

    https://twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/1748366773806600331

    Has to be one of the worst public meetings a PM has had other than Brown's infamous one.

    Rishi Sunak is going to come severely unstuck on the campaign trail IMHO.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    glw said:

    MJW said:

    One thing is the complicity of moderate Republican leaders in offering a permission structure for people to support Trump.

    Even those who broadly oppose him are very quiet and unwilling to publicly prosecute the case against him - so of course lots of voters see the justified objections to him as another partisan argument in which they plump for their guy.

    The GOP at a leadership level is full of people who hate Trump but are now beholden to him. They are spineless to a degree previously only seen in authoritarian states where if you don't applaud the Leader long enough you might disappear. The GOP doesn't deserve a comeback after Trump it warrants destruction.

    Yup. To some extent all our political systems rely on party elites to vet those in leadership roles to weed out those who may have an appeal but have disqualifying traits. Here in the UK both parties have struggled with that but ultimately got there in the end as enough MPs were prepared to risk or end their career to do the right thing. Often after much of the damage had been done. But still.

    It's like the discussion of Farage earlier as a potential Tory leader. Whatever his retail skills if it were ever a serious possibility you'd hope Tories would realise they were putting a fox in charge of the hen house.

    The GOP's path and what it will mean for Anerica will likely go down in history as an example of what happens when that doesn't happen.
This discussion has been closed.