Sunak's problem is he has been unable to formulate a political strategy and execute on it consistently:
- Is he a safe pair of hands getting the economy under control and investing for the future? Binning long-term infrastructure projects to help finance pre-election tax cuts (despite a big deficit) doesn't suggest so.
- Are we voting for a change or continuity candidate from recent Tory governments? If the latter the 'change' offered feels very familiar.
- Is he on the populist right or not? The Rwanda policy suggests yes, as does defining himself to be tall by law (or was that Rwanda is a safe country?). But will he be willing to go far enough to force this through the Lords and the Supreme Court such that anyone actually goes to Rwanda before the next election? I expect not, and his failure (on his own terms) here has led to Reform growing in the polls.
It's like the reverse Boris 2019 plan. He was able to hold onto the blue wall while appealing beyond the Tory natural base. Sunak is on track to alienate the blue wall while failing to convince the types of voters Boris won over.
Whatever change it was that we wanted, it isn’t the one we are getting.
Competence would have been nice, for a change.
I was hoping for genuine economic competence. Not just better than Truss, that was a given, but long term planning and a proper focus on our main issues (balance of trade, investment, productivity, education).
I think Hunt has done pretty well as Chancellor, within the boundaries set by his boss. It is Sunak who has really disappointed. The guy is genuinely bright, has a very successful career in financial services behind him and he really just doesn't seem to get it. The HS2 decision was a terrible decision for large swathes of the country. The logistics of getting around this relatively small country of ours, both for individuals and goods, are truly terrible and an inhibition of growth.
Hunt did some good work on encouraging investment in the budget but he could and should have gone further, even at the cost of the NI cuts. No one is talking about the balance of payments. It is critical to our future standard of living and it is simply not being addressed. We need to encourage more training. There is so much to do to get this country back on the road that someone with a reasonable grounding in economics and finance should have appreciated. I'm disappointed.
And as for this Rwanda nonsense....
Yeah must admit I expected Sunak to be pretty good and am massively disappointed. I can't even understand the logic behind much of his decision making and especially communication. Being generous to him personally perhaps his party is so toxic and divided it is impossible to lead well.
Yes, I have for some time thought the problem is the Party. It selected Truss, ffs.
The trouble goes back a long way though. John Major was one of my favorite PMs. He's have done a lot better if he'd had the Party behind him. Ken Clarke was a fine PM we never had.
What's wrong with these guys? Yeah,I know Labour picked Corbyn but that was a one off. The Tory Party is a serial offender.
Sounds like we like similar politicians. Clarke and Major right up there. Even when I didn't agree with them I always understood and mostly respected where they were coming from which makes a huge difference.
The perfect encapsulation of the essential nature of the 2024 tory. Ignorant, arrogant, pompous, complacent, and just plain wrong with a catastrophically elevated HbA1c level.
But a good speech by Tim Farron, immediately following
This is becoming as traditional as reporting the first cuckoo.
I'm told multiple letters of no confidence in the prime minister went in yesterday. Rebel MPs were unhappy about the way the vote was handled by the PM being seen as a final straw. Some had held back from putting theirs in, in December. https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1747888008487932137
Fucking hell, here we go again. Swella will be PM by Easter. She needs to move fast as her particular brand of unpleasant shit-housery is fading fast from the public consciousness. See also: The Pritster. Gone and forgotten.
Sunak's problem is he has been unable to formulate a political strategy and execute on it consistently:
- Is he a safe pair of hands getting the economy under control and investing for the future? Binning long-term infrastructure projects to help finance pre-election tax cuts (despite a big deficit) doesn't suggest so.
- Are we voting for a change or continuity candidate from recent Tory governments? If the latter the 'change' offered feels very familiar.
- Is he on the populist right or not? The Rwanda policy suggests yes, as does defining himself to be tall by law (or was that Rwanda is a safe country?). But will he be willing to go far enough to force this through the Lords and the Supreme Court such that anyone actually goes to Rwanda before the next election? I expect not, and his failure (on his own terms) here has led to Reform growing in the polls.
It's like the reverse Boris 2019 plan. He was able to hold onto the blue wall while appealing beyond the Tory natural base. Sunak is on track to alienate the blue wall while failing to convince the types of voters Boris won over.
Whatever change it was that we wanted, it isn’t the one we are getting.
Competence would have been nice, for a change.
I was hoping for genuine economic competence. Not just better than Truss, that was a given, but long term planning and a proper focus on our main issues (balance of trade, investment, productivity, education).
I think Hunt has done pretty well as Chancellor, within the boundaries set by his boss. It is Sunak who has really disappointed. The guy is genuinely bright, has a very successful career in financial services behind him and he really just doesn't seem to get it. The HS2 decision was a terrible decision for large swathes of the country. The logistics of getting around this relatively small country of ours, both for individuals and goods, are truly terrible and an inhibition of growth.
Hunt did some good work on encouraging investment in the budget but he could and should have gone further, even at the cost of the NI cuts. No one is talking about the balance of payments. It is critical to our future standard of living and it is simply not being addressed. We need to encourage more training. There is so much to do to get this country back on the road that someone with a reasonable grounding in economics and finance should have appreciated. I'm disappointed.
And as for this Rwanda nonsense....
Balance of payments is a funny one, isn't it?
When I was young, there were whole hour-long programmes about it, with a twenty-minute explainer documentary followed by a long-form interview with Brian Walden pressing some top politician as to what they were going to do about the balance of payments.
Nowadays it isn't even reported, or at least not anywhere prominently, and doesn't feature in political discourse at all.
Yes, I remember when the monthly figures were headline news. But we are getting poorer at a rate of in excess of £90bn a year and have been for a very long time now. Cumulatively, this is why our standard of living is falling behind so much of western Europe. And its getting worse every year.
Biden promised me a reasonably competent administration run by non-psychopaths and non-sociopaths that would do some things I liked and other things I didn't, and I'd say he has 100% delivered. https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1747608403340316857
Imagine being able to say all of that about our next government. Too much to hope for ?
Sunak's problem is he has been unable to formulate a political strategy and execute on it consistently:
- Is he a safe pair of hands getting the economy under control and investing for the future? Binning long-term infrastructure projects to help finance pre-election tax cuts (despite a big deficit) doesn't suggest so.
- Are we voting for a change or continuity candidate from recent Tory governments? If the latter the 'change' offered feels very familiar.
- Is he on the populist right or not? The Rwanda policy suggests yes, as does defining himself to be tall by law (or was that Rwanda is a safe country?). But will he be willing to go far enough to force this through the Lords and the Supreme Court such that anyone actually goes to Rwanda before the next election? I expect not, and his failure (on his own terms) here has led to Reform growing in the polls.
It's like the reverse Boris 2019 plan. He was able to hold onto the blue wall while appealing beyond the Tory natural base. Sunak is on track to alienate the blue wall while failing to convince the types of voters Boris won over.
Whatever change it was that we wanted, it isn’t the one we are getting.
Competence would have been nice, for a change.
I was hoping for genuine economic competence. Not just better than Truss, that was a given, but long term planning and a proper focus on our main issues (balance of trade, investment, productivity, education).
I think Hunt has done pretty well as Chancellor, within the boundaries set by his boss. It is Sunak who has really disappointed. The guy is genuinely bright, has a very successful career in financial services behind him and he really just doesn't seem to get it. The HS2 decision was a terrible decision for large swathes of the country. The logistics of getting around this relatively small country of ours, both for individuals and goods, are truly terrible and an inhibition of growth.
Hunt did some good work on encouraging investment in the budget but he could and should have gone further, even at the cost of the NI cuts. No one is talking about the balance of payments. It is critical to our future standard of living and it is simply not being addressed. We need to encourage more training. There is so much to do to get this country back on the road that someone with a reasonable grounding in economics and finance should have appreciated. I'm disappointed.
And as for this Rwanda nonsense....
Yeah must admit I expected Sunak to be pretty good and am massively disappointed. I can't even understand the logic behind much of his decision making and especially communication. Being generous to him personally perhaps his party is so toxic and divided it is impossible to lead well.
Not sure why anyone expected Sunak to be any good after he jacked up National Insurance as Chancellor in order to balance the books plan for an Income Tax cut before the election.
Jacking up the taxes on productive working people in order to lower those on those who aren't working is the polar opposite of good economic management.
I thought he communicated well as Chancellor and seemed more pragmatic than ideological. As PM his communication is terrible (weirdly had a few of those recently with Truss, May and Brown as well) and any pragmatism if it exists is directed at day to day management of the Tory party and press rather than the long term good of the country.
Can anyone explain why it is that typos are invisible when proof-reading proposed comments, but immediately leap off the page once published and the time limit for editing has expired?
They're easier to spot when you're not looking for them?
Can anyone explain why it is that typos are invisible when proof-reading proposed comments, but immediately leap off the page once published and the time limit for editing has expired?
They're easier to spot when you're not looking for them?
Right.
So it works like my watch, and car keys, huh?
It's just one of the more devious manifestations of Autocorrupt.
Sunak's problem is he has been unable to formulate a political strategy and execute on it consistently:
- Is he a safe pair of hands getting the economy under control and investing for the future? Binning long-term infrastructure projects to help finance pre-election tax cuts (despite a big deficit) doesn't suggest so.
- Are we voting for a change or continuity candidate from recent Tory governments? If the latter the 'change' offered feels very familiar.
- Is he on the populist right or not? The Rwanda policy suggests yes, as does defining himself to be tall by law (or was that Rwanda is a safe country?). But will he be willing to go far enough to force this through the Lords and the Supreme Court such that anyone actually goes to Rwanda before the next election? I expect not, and his failure (on his own terms) here has led to Reform growing in the polls.
It's like the reverse Boris 2019 plan. He was able to hold onto the blue wall while appealing beyond the Tory natural base. Sunak is on track to alienate the blue wall while failing to convince the types of voters Boris won over.
Whatever change it was that we wanted, it isn’t the one we are getting.
Competence would have been nice, for a change.
I was hoping for genuine economic competence. Not just better than Truss, that was a given, but long term planning and a proper focus on our main issues (balance of trade, investment, productivity, education).
I think Hunt has done pretty well as Chancellor, within the boundaries set by his boss. It is Sunak who has really disappointed. The guy is genuinely bright, has a very successful career in financial services behind him and he really just doesn't seem to get it. The HS2 decision was a terrible decision for large swathes of the country. The logistics of getting around this relatively small country of ours, both for individuals and goods, are truly terrible and an inhibition of growth.
Hunt did some good work on encouraging investment in the budget but he could and should have gone further, even at the cost of the NI cuts. No one is talking about the balance of payments. It is critical to our future standard of living and it is simply not being addressed. We need to encourage more training. There is so much to do to get this country back on the road that someone with a reasonable grounding in economics and finance should have appreciated. I'm disappointed.
And as for this Rwanda nonsense....
Balance of payments is a funny one, isn't it?
When I was young, there were whole hour-long programmes about it, with a twenty-minute explainer documentary followed by a long-form interview with Brian Walden pressing some top politician as to what they were going to do about the balance of payments.
Nowadays it isn't even reported, or at least not anywhere prominently, and doesn't feature in political discourse at all.
When you were young we had a quasi-fixed exchange rate. In those days the current account of the BoP was a crucial determinant of "stop-go" policy as domestic demand had to adjust to reflect the current account balance. With a floating rate since 1972 the focus switched to the interest rate and its effect on the domestic economy. That is not to say that the current account balance is irrelevant. It is an indicator of disequilibrium between our spending and our output.
Sunak's problem is he has been unable to formulate a political strategy and execute on it consistently:
- Is he a safe pair of hands getting the economy under control and investing for the future? Binning long-term infrastructure projects to help finance pre-election tax cuts (despite a big deficit) doesn't suggest so.
- Are we voting for a change or continuity candidate from recent Tory governments? If the latter the 'change' offered feels very familiar.
- Is he on the populist right or not? The Rwanda policy suggests yes, as does defining himself to be tall by law (or was that Rwanda is a safe country?). But will he be willing to go far enough to force this through the Lords and the Supreme Court such that anyone actually goes to Rwanda before the next election? I expect not, and his failure (on his own terms) here has led to Reform growing in the polls.
It's like the reverse Boris 2019 plan. He was able to hold onto the blue wall while appealing beyond the Tory natural base. Sunak is on track to alienate the blue wall while failing to convince the types of voters Boris won over.
Whatever change it was that we wanted, it isn’t the one we are getting.
Competence would have been nice, for a change.
I was hoping for genuine economic competence. Not just better than Truss, that was a given, but long term planning and a proper focus on our main issues (balance of trade, investment, productivity, education).
I think Hunt has done pretty well as Chancellor, within the boundaries set by his boss. It is Sunak who has really disappointed. The guy is genuinely bright, has a very successful career in financial services behind him and he really just doesn't seem to get it. The HS2 decision was a terrible decision for large swathes of the country. The logistics of getting around this relatively small country of ours, both for individuals and goods, are truly terrible and an inhibition of growth.
Hunt did some good work on encouraging investment in the budget but he could and should have gone further, even at the cost of the NI cuts. No one is talking about the balance of payments. It is critical to our future standard of living and it is simply not being addressed. We need to encourage more training. There is so much to do to get this country back on the road that someone with a reasonable grounding in economics and finance should have appreciated. I'm disappointed.
And as for this Rwanda nonsense....
Yeah must admit I expected Sunak to be pretty good and am massively disappointed. I can't even understand the logic behind much of his decision making and especially communication. Being generous to him personally perhaps his party is so toxic and divided it is impossible to lead well.
Yes, I have for some time thought the problem is the Party. It selected Truss, ffs.
The trouble goes back a long way though. John Major was one of my favorite PMs. He's have done a lot better if he'd had the Party behind him. Ken Clarke was a fine PM we never had.
What's wrong with these guys? Yeah,I know Labour picked Corbyn but that was a one off. The Tory Party is a serial offender.
Taking this seriously, I think the problem is that Tory selections have become ideological (also one of the problems the Republicans have), dating back to the wets v drys of Mrs T's day but coming to a head with Brexit. Too many party selection committees and memberships put the candidates' ideological views ahead of competence or character, made worse when the ideology being sought involves a degree of suspension of disbelief. And those people, when MPs, pick their leaders in the same way, landing us with patently unsuitable and incompetent leadership.
Sunak's still a surprise, because they got landed with him despite a lot of resistance. We don't know how Mordaunt would have turned out, but she'd have been a moderate, sensible choice who, we remember, lost out mostly because of her view on some minor fringe issue.
It was a challenge Labour (and indeed all parties, to some extent) has also had, and for longer, with candidates of the more left-wing views preferred by local members. But Labour deals with it more directly through a combination of central HQ control, the influence of the trade unions, and a recognition that there's a game being played where people pitch left to get selected and then 'come out' as more moderate once in Parliament. Labour also has tighter control, and more levers to pull, over its parliamentary party.
Once upon a time the Tories appeared to choose according to a mix of competence, connections and social standing, which gave them a diversity problem but did throw up a good mix of mostly able people. Now, you have to be a nutter to get chosen, and the Clarkes, Gaukes, Majors and Hagues of the future probably aren't coming through.
Interesting NBC polling of the Iowa Republican caucus goers. Only 71% of them will vote for Trump if he is their candidate. Those who voted Haley are especially down on him.
11% would vote Biden.
Also, 31% think he is not fit to be the candidate if convicted of a felony.
These are awful numbers for Trump. Plenty of Republicans won't vote MAGA.
Were they actual Republicans though? There were suggestions that Democrats were gatecrashing the GOP caucuses in the absence of their own and in a forlorn attempt to stop Trump.
There is always an element of that. Maximum 11% of Democrat interlopers though (those who'd vote Biden).
But the turnout was low - and even acknowledging the weather was horrific, the enthusiasm for Trump was not overwhelming.
The game is over for Trump if he gets a conviction as a felon before November. Interesting to see how many still peel away next month when he's clearly a fraudster in a civil case that awards the state of New York hundreds of millions in disgorgement for cooking the books. When found guilty of fraud, is the civil/criminal distinction going to be that important?
Every reference by the Democrats to Trump is going to be preceded by "fraudster".
I'm surprised they don't more often call him a rapist, which a civil court has ruled that he is.
Plays right into Trump's "I'm a victim, just like you" schtick. Getting into a name calling spat with Trump is not a winning strategy.
I'm not sure about that.
The US media has been playing Trump's game for years, as controversy is good fur their business. 'Fraudster and rapist Donald Trump" should be appearing regularly in headlines - and has the additional merit of being closer to the truth than anything he says.
The American TV media landscape is an actual mess. We all know about Fox News, but even CNN has gone off the deep end. I was watching something last year and after the News bit Jake Tapper, a CNN anchor, comes on and does a piece to camera editorialising about the importance of journalism and trusted information to a free society.
I agreed with him, but it was just so bizarre to see such a naked editorial line. I felt actually uncomfortable. Part of me thinks it's because American TV journos are obsessed with being Edward Murrow and Walter Cronkite.
This is becoming as traditional as reporting the first cuckoo.
I'm told multiple letters of no confidence in the prime minister went in yesterday. Rebel MPs were unhappy about the way the vote was handled by the PM being seen as a final straw. Some had held back from putting theirs in, in December. https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1747888008487932137
If the rebels lose the whip, are their letters null and void?
Interesting NBC polling of the Iowa Republican caucus goers. Only 71% of them will vote for Trump if he is their candidate. Those who voted Haley are especially down on him.
11% would vote Biden.
Also, 31% think he is not fit to be the candidate if convicted of a felony.
These are awful numbers for Trump. Plenty of Republicans won't vote MAGA.
Were they actual Republicans though? There were suggestions that Democrats were gatecrashing the GOP caucuses in the absence of their own and in a forlorn attempt to stop Trump.
There is always an element of that. Maximum 11% of Democrat interlopers though (those who'd vote Biden).
But the turnout was low - and even acknowledging the weather was horrific, the enthusiasm for Trump was not overwhelming.
The game is over for Trump if he gets a conviction as a felon before November. Interesting to see how many still peel away next month when he's clearly a fraudster in a civil case that awards the state of New York hundreds of millions in disgorgement for cooking the books. When found guilty of fraud, is the civil/criminal distinction going to be that important?
Every reference by the Democrats to Trump is going to be preceded by "fraudster".
I genuinely hope that you are right Mark and that I am wrong but so far all of Trump's many, many reverses in various courts, both criminal and civil seem to consolidated his support rather than ending it.
Can you think of any politician in this country whose career would survive a finding that he had sexually assaulted a woman? Or that he was guilty of large scale fraud (that has already been determined, the court in the present case is simply determining the penalties), or that he was guilty or insurrection and therefore not eligible for office?
For his supporters, these findings are simply evidence that the liberal establishment are out to get their man by fair means or foul. And, sadly, there is the smallest whiff of truth in that. The hope has to be that the independents vote for not Trump in sufficient numbers to defeat him. Again. But so far the polling is alarming.
Trump is about to be at the very sharp end of the judicial system. First in the civil courts; then in the criminal courts that lead to jail. Sure there have been previous cases he has shrugged off. But he isn't going to shrug off these.
First, he will be hit with tens of millions for defamation. The same damages expert that got Rudy Giuliani hit for $148m is going to be hitting Trump too. And Trump keeps defaming her in his social media, day after day. It's his personal cash getting bled. Melania has reportedly renegotiated her pre-nup - she is incredibly angry that her son's inheritance is being pissed up a wall. The visible contempt for her husband is the subject of multiple video clips. Be surprised if the marriage survives beyond November.
The New York case will demolish Trump's schtick of being this great businessman. His property empire has engaged in serial fraud that has allowed him to get significantly lower interest rates not available to the average voter, especially those who have been struggling to keep their business afloat. He has cooked the books. For years. This is a matter of record, not something dreamt up by Joe Biden. He can scream about being a victim as much as he likes. But this is HIS doing - and it will undermine his claim to be fit to be President. "Would you let a fraudster run the country?" is a powerful message not available in 2020.
Then there are the criminal cases. Bear in mind here that the prosecutors have been serially turning his close inner circle, those wise enough not to go to jail for Trump. Their evidence will be damning. The story around January 6th will be that he stoked insurrection. The story around stealing the election will be that he was at the centre of the scam of alternate electors. The story around his taking away top secret documents for his personal trading chips will be damning.
None of these issues are getting him new voters. Many will be more determined to turn out to ensure he is nowhere near office ever again. But each court case will chip away some of his core vote.
We have a tendency to caricature the Trump vote as all being thick as pig shit; but many are more nuanced in their balancing Trump versus Biden. As the US economy looks stronger - especially inflation sharply down, stock market highs and record job creation - Biden's legacy for the past four years is coming good at just the right time. The number prepared to throw their lot in with Trump will start to turn down. Catastrophically so when he is in the orange jumpsuit of a federal penitentiary.
Biden promised me a reasonably competent administration run by non-psychopaths and non-sociopaths that would do some things I liked and other things I didn't, and I'd say he has 100% delivered. https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1747608403340316857
Imagine being able to say all of that about our next government. Too much to hope for ?
Interesting NBC polling of the Iowa Republican caucus goers. Only 71% of them will vote for Trump if he is their candidate. Those who voted Haley are especially down on him.
11% would vote Biden.
Also, 31% think he is not fit to be the candidate if convicted of a felony.
These are awful numbers for Trump. Plenty of Republicans won't vote MAGA.
Were they actual Republicans though? There were suggestions that Democrats were gatecrashing the GOP caucuses in the absence of their own and in a forlorn attempt to stop Trump.
There is always an element of that. Maximum 11% of Democrat interlopers though (those who'd vote Biden).
But the turnout was low - and even acknowledging the weather was horrific, the enthusiasm for Trump was not overwhelming.
The game is over for Trump if he gets a conviction as a felon before November. Interesting to see how many still peel away next month when he's clearly a fraudster in a civil case that awards the state of New York hundreds of millions in disgorgement for cooking the books. When found guilty of fraud, is the civil/criminal distinction going to be that important?
Every reference by the Democrats to Trump is going to be preceded by "fraudster".
I'm surprised they don't more often call him a rapist, which a civil court has ruled that he is.
Plays right into Trump's "I'm a victim, just like you" schtick. Getting into a name calling spat with Trump is not a winning strategy.
I'm not sure about that.
The US media has been playing Trump's game for years, as controversy is good fur their business. 'Fraudster and rapist Donald Trump" should be appearing regularly in headlines - and has the additional merit of being closer to the truth than anything he says.
The American TV media landscape is an actual mess. We all know about Fox News, but even CNN has gone off the deep end. I was watching something last year and after the News bit Jake Tapper, a CNN anchor, comes on and does a piece to camera editorialising about the importance of journalism and trusted information to a free society.
I agreed with him, but it was just so bizarre to see such a naked editorial line. I felt actually uncomfortable. Part of me thinks it's because American TV journos are obsessed with being Edward Murrow and Walter Cronkite.
The whole lot of them are both bonkers and hyper-partisan, which is why there’s now so much independent journalism thriving in the US.
When they go on about impartiality and quality journalism, in the middle of their political rant, it adds insult to injury.
The likes of Cronkite would turn in their graves at what’s happened to their industry.
Another thing I didn't have on my 2024 bingo card: conflict between Pakistan and... Iran?
Iran's acting like the drunken, violent fool outside a pub, swinging punches at anyone coming out the door whilst shouting "Come here and have a go if you think you're 'ard enough!" Trying to close the Red Sea via their Houthi puppets; striking Iraq; striking Pakistan; giving weapons to Russia.
Unusually, for a country where alcohol is verboten.
A friend of mine knows Iran really well. Speaks Farsi fluently. Has spent years (on and off) travelling around the country
He says the heroin abuse is off the charts: it is the chosen drug of the posh and the poor; they have heroin parties
Basically mankind will always desire an intoxicant - and will take whatever it can. I’m sure the Iranians would prefer a nice glass of wine or a cold beer - but needs must
Does the NY case really matter? It's not going to be resolved even when the judge hands out the verdict. DJT will just appeal the shit out of it for years. He doesn't give a fuck because his PAC is picking up the legal bills.
The PACs aren't raising anywhere near as much as they did - because they are being used to fund Trump's legal bills and nothing else. One raised a million and a bit in the latest reporting period; the million came from a single donor.
Interesting NBC polling of the Iowa Republican caucus goers. Only 71% of them will vote for Trump if he is their candidate. Those who voted Haley are especially down on him.
11% would vote Biden.
Also, 31% think he is not fit to be the candidate if convicted of a felony.
These are awful numbers for Trump. Plenty of Republicans won't vote MAGA.
Were they actual Republicans though? There were suggestions that Democrats were gatecrashing the GOP caucuses in the absence of their own and in a forlorn attempt to stop Trump.
There is always an element of that. Maximum 11% of Democrat interlopers though (those who'd vote Biden).
But the turnout was low - and even acknowledging the weather was horrific, the enthusiasm for Trump was not overwhelming.
The game is over for Trump if he gets a conviction as a felon before November. Interesting to see how many still peel away next month when he's clearly a fraudster in a civil case that awards the state of New York hundreds of millions in disgorgement for cooking the books. When found guilty of fraud, is the civil/criminal distinction going to be that important?
Every reference by the Democrats to Trump is going to be preceded by "fraudster".
I genuinely hope that you are right Mark and that I am wrong but so far all of Trump's many, many reverses in various courts, both criminal and civil seem to consolidated his support rather than ending it.
Can you think of any politician in this country whose career would survive a finding that he had sexually assaulted a woman? Or that he was guilty of large scale fraud (that has already been determined, the court in the present case is simply determining the penalties), or that he was guilty or insurrection and therefore not eligible for office?
For his supporters, these findings are simply evidence that the liberal establishment are out to get their man by fair means or foul. And, sadly, there is the smallest whiff of truth in that. The hope has to be that the independents vote for not Trump in sufficient numbers to defeat him. Again. But so far the polling is alarming.
Trump is about to be at the very sharp end of the judicial system. First in the civil courts; then in the criminal courts that lead to jail. Sure there have been previous cases he has shrugged off. But he isn't going to shrug off these.
First, he will be hit with tens of millions for defamation. The same damages expert that got Rudy Giuliani hit for $148m is going to be hitting Trump too. And Trump keeps defaming her in his social media, day after day. It's his personal cash getting bled. Melania has reportedly renegotiated her pre-nup - she is incredibly angry that her son's inheritance is being pissed up a wall. The visible contempt for her husband is the subject of multiple video clips. Be surprised if the marriage survives beyond November.
The New York case will demolish Trump's schtick of being this great businessman. His property empire has engaged in serial fraud that has allowed him to get significantly lower interest rates not available to the average voter, especially those who have been struggling to keep their business afloat. He has cooked the books. For years. This is a matter of record, not something dreamt up by Joe Biden. He can scream about being a victim as much as he likes. But this is HIS doing - and it will undermine his claim to be fit to be President. "Would you let a fraudster run the country?" is a powerful message not available in 2020.
Then there are the criminal cases. Bear in mind here that the prosecutors have been serially turning his close inner circle, those wise enough not to go to jail for Trump. Their evidence will be damning. The story around January 6th will be that he stoked insurrection. The story around stealing the election will be that he was at the centre of the scam of alternate electors. The story around his taking away top secret documents for his personal trading chips will be damning.
None of these issues are getting him new voters. Many will be more determined to turn out to ensure he is nowhere near office ever again. But each court case will chip away some of his core vote.
We have a tendency to caricature the Trump vote as all being thick as pig shit; but many are more nuanced in their balancing Trump versus Biden. As the US economy looks stronger - especially inflation sharply down, stock market highs and record job creation - Biden's legacy for the past four years is coming good at just the right time. The number prepared to throw their lot in with Trump will start to turn down. Catastrophically so when he is in the orange jumpsuit of a federal penitentiary.
Very much hope you are right, but fear very much you are wrong. Too many people are unhappy with the direction of the country and will try Trump 2.0.
Another thing I didn't have on my 2024 bingo card: conflict between Pakistan and... Iran?
Iran's acting like the drunken, violent fool outside a pub, swinging punches at anyone coming out the door whilst shouting "Come here and have a go if you think you're 'ard enough!" Trying to close the Red Sea via their Houthi puppets; striking Iraq; striking Pakistan; giving weapons to Russia.
Unusually, for a country where alcohol is verboten.
The Islamic Republic has had a problem with chronic alcoholism and alcohol deaths for a while now due to people making their own including something called Aragh. A local moonshine.
Prohibition doesn’t work, who knew?
Banning things that are relatively easy to make, almost always results in people making it anyway. Even in Saudi there’s discussions about whether or not their new Neom resorts are going to be licenced, and they’ve already opened cinemas, theatres, and are spending a lot of money on sporting events.
They’re trying to attract tourists, and at the moment a significant number of their locals escape every weekend to neighbouring countries with more liberal policies towards entertainment.
There used to be a long railway bridge over the Solway Firth, from near Bowness on Solway in Cumbria to Annan in Scotland. After the railway closed, every Sunday Scottish men would cross the bridge on foot to drink in English pubs as Scottish pubs were closed on Sundays.
It closed to passengers in about 1920. I once knew someone, born about 1909, from the English side who went to school in Annan on the line every day until it closed. The footings of the bridge and bits of the line can still be located. The bridge itself looks fragile in the extreme as you can see on the website about it.
Interesting NBC polling of the Iowa Republican caucus goers. Only 71% of them will vote for Trump if he is their candidate. Those who voted Haley are especially down on him.
11% would vote Biden.
Also, 31% think he is not fit to be the candidate if convicted of a felony.
These are awful numbers for Trump. Plenty of Republicans won't vote MAGA.
Were they actual Republicans though? There were suggestions that Democrats were gatecrashing the GOP caucuses in the absence of their own and in a forlorn attempt to stop Trump.
There is always an element of that. Maximum 11% of Democrat interlopers though (those who'd vote Biden).
But the turnout was low - and even acknowledging the weather was horrific, the enthusiasm for Trump was not overwhelming.
The game is over for Trump if he gets a conviction as a felon before November. Interesting to see how many still peel away next month when he's clearly a fraudster in a civil case that awards the state of New York hundreds of millions in disgorgement for cooking the books. When found guilty of fraud, is the civil/criminal distinction going to be that important?
Every reference by the Democrats to Trump is going to be preceded by "fraudster".
I'm surprised they don't more often call him a rapist, which a civil court has ruled that he is.
To have impact I think it needs to be “convicted fraudster” or “convicted rapist” otherwise it’s just an insult
Not sure if a civil court ruling would justify the use of “convicted”
Pretty unpleasant in my experience, but whatever grabs you.
A cold of the willy...
When a University friend of mine went for treatment (at Leicester Royal Infirmary, no less) he found the treatment room was at the end of a long corridor in where there were many patients for other maladies sitting on chairs waiting to be attended to. As he passed down the corridor, heads turned to see which department he was visiting.
By the time he got to the bottom he was practically running.
I’m assuming that last sentence was deliberately phrased…
Does the NY case really matter? It's not going to be resolved even when the judge hands out the verdict. DJT will just appeal the shit out of it for years. He doesn't give a fuck because his PAC is picking up the legal bills.
The PACs aren't raising anywhere near as much as they did - because they are being used to fund Trump's legal bills and nothing else. One raised a million and a bit in the latest reporting period; the million came from a single donor.
Another thing I didn't have on my 2024 bingo card: conflict between Pakistan and... Iran?
Iran's acting like the drunken, violent fool outside a pub, swinging punches at anyone coming out the door whilst shouting "Come here and have a go if you think you're 'ard enough!" Trying to close the Red Sea via their Houthi puppets; striking Iraq; striking Pakistan; giving weapons to Russia.
Unusually, for a country where alcohol is verboten.
The Islamic Republic has had a problem with chronic alcoholism and alcohol deaths for a while now due to people making their own including something called Aragh. A local moonshine.
Prohibition doesn’t work, who knew?
Banning things that are relatively easy to make, almost always results in people making it anyway. Even in Saudi there’s discussions about whether or not their new Neom resorts are going to be licenced, and they’ve already opened cinemas, theatres, and are spending a lot of money on sporting events.
They’re trying to attract tourists, and at the moment a significant number of their locals escape every weekend to neighbouring countries with more liberal policies towards entertainment.
There used to be a long railway bridge over the Solway Firth, from near Bowness on Solway in Cumbria to Annan in Scotland. After the railway closed, every Sunday Scottish men would cross the bridge on foot to drink in English pubs as Scottish pubs were closed on Sundays.
It closed to passengers in about 1920. I once knew someone, born about 1909, from the English side who went to school in Annan on the line every day until it closed. The footings of the bridge and bits of the line can still be located. The bridge itself looks fragile in the extreme as you can see on the website about it.
It was very brittle; an ice flow destroyed part of it. I loved the following from that website:
" contractor [Mr McKerrow?] was summoned to survey the damage with a view to repairs, and he arrived, with his apparatus, at low tide. Setting his instruments etc., on what he thought to be a safe stretch of shore, he withdrew, only to find that on his return that his possessions were severely embedded in the wet sand. He hired some of the local men to get them out for him, and these … proceeded to join hands and dance around the buried instruments, to the very great surprise of the engineer. The reason to them was plain enough: before they could dig the sand they must first of all stamp out the greater part of moisture from it …’ (John Howes, 1950)"
This is becoming as traditional as reporting the first cuckoo.
I'm told multiple letters of no confidence in the prime minister went in yesterday. Rebel MPs were unhappy about the way the vote was handled by the PM being seen as a final straw. Some had held back from putting theirs in, in December. https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1747888008487932137
If the rebels lose the whip, are their letters null and void?
Interesting NBC polling of the Iowa Republican caucus goers. Only 71% of them will vote for Trump if he is their candidate. Those who voted Haley are especially down on him.
11% would vote Biden.
Also, 31% think he is not fit to be the candidate if convicted of a felony.
These are awful numbers for Trump. Plenty of Republicans won't vote MAGA.
Were they actual Republicans though? There were suggestions that Democrats were gatecrashing the GOP caucuses in the absence of their own and in a forlorn attempt to stop Trump.
There is always an element of that. Maximum 11% of Democrat interlopers though (those who'd vote Biden).
But the turnout was low - and even acknowledging the weather was horrific, the enthusiasm for Trump was not overwhelming.
The game is over for Trump if he gets a conviction as a felon before November. Interesting to see how many still peel away next month when he's clearly a fraudster in a civil case that awards the state of New York hundreds of millions in disgorgement for cooking the books. When found guilty of fraud, is the civil/criminal distinction going to be that important?
Every reference by the Democrats to Trump is going to be preceded by "fraudster".
I'm surprised they don't more often call him a rapist, which a civil court has ruled that he is.
Plays right into Trump's "I'm a victim, just like you" schtick. Getting into a name calling spat with Trump is not a winning strategy.
Let NY fine him.
Then use the line “he stole $350m from the State of New York. Money that came from hard working taxpayers like you and you. People who had a job, worked hard and obeyed their the rules. Money that otherwise would have done X, Y and Z”
Sunak's problem is he has been unable to formulate a political strategy and execute on it consistently:
- Is he a safe pair of hands getting the economy under control and investing for the future? Binning long-term infrastructure projects to help finance pre-election tax cuts (despite a big deficit) doesn't suggest so.
- Are we voting for a change or continuity candidate from recent Tory governments? If the latter the 'change' offered feels very familiar.
- Is he on the populist right or not? The Rwanda policy suggests yes, as does defining himself to be tall by law (or was that Rwanda is a safe country?). But will he be willing to go far enough to force this through the Lords and the Supreme Court such that anyone actually goes to Rwanda before the next election? I expect not, and his failure (on his own terms) here has led to Reform growing in the polls.
It's like the reverse Boris 2019 plan. He was able to hold onto the blue wall while appealing beyond the Tory natural base. Sunak is on track to alienate the blue wall while failing to convince the types of voters Boris won over.
Whatever change it was that we wanted, it isn’t the one we are getting.
Competence would have been nice, for a change.
I was hoping for genuine economic competence. Not just better than Truss, that was a given, but long term planning and a proper focus on our main issues (balance of trade, investment, productivity, education).
I think Hunt has done pretty well as Chancellor, within the boundaries set by his boss. It is Sunak who has really disappointed. The guy is genuinely bright, has a very successful career in financial services behind him and he really just doesn't seem to get it. The HS2 decision was a terrible decision for large swathes of the country. The logistics of getting around this relatively small country of ours, both for individuals and goods, are truly terrible and an inhibition of growth.
Hunt did some good work on encouraging investment in the budget but he could and should have gone further, even at the cost of the NI cuts. No one is talking about the balance of payments. It is critical to our future standard of living and it is simply not being addressed. We need to encourage more training. There is so much to do to get this country back on the road that someone with a reasonable grounding in economics and finance should have appreciated. I'm disappointed.
And as for this Rwanda nonsense....
Yeah must admit I expected Sunak to be pretty good and am massively disappointed. I can't even understand the logic behind much of his decision making and especially communication. Being generous to him personally perhaps his party is so toxic and divided it is impossible to lead well.
Yes, I have for some time thought the problem is the Party. It selected Truss, ffs.
The trouble goes back a long way though. John Major was one of my favorite PMs. He's have done a lot better if he'd had the Party behind him. Ken Clarke was a fine PM we never had.
What's wrong with these guys? Yeah,I know Labour picked Corbyn but that was a one off. The Tory Party is a serial offender.
Taking this seriously, I think the problem is that Tory selections have become ideological (also one of the problems the Republicans have), dating back to the wets v drys of Mrs T's day but coming to a head with Brexit. Too many party selection committees and memberships put the candidates' ideological views ahead of competence or character, made worse when the ideology being sought involves a degree of suspension of disbelief. And those people, when MPs, pick their leaders in the same way, landing us with patently unsuitable and incompetent leadership.
Sunak's still a surprise, because they got landed with him despite a lot of resistance. We don't know how Mordaunt would have turned out, but she'd have been a moderate, sensible choice who, we remember, lost out mostly because of her view on some minor fringe issue.
It was a challenge Labour (and indeed all parties, to some extent) has also had, and for longer, with candidates of the more left-wing views preferred by local members. But Labour deals with it more directly through a combination of central HQ control, the influence of the trade unions, and a recognition that there's a game being played where people pitch left to get selected and then 'come out' as more moderate once in Parliament. Labour also has tighter control, and more levers to pull, over its parliamentary party.
Once upon a time the Tories appeared to choose according to a mix of competence, connections and social standing, which gave them a diversity problem but did throw up a good mix of mostly able people. Now, you have to be a nutter to get chosen, and the Clarkes, Gaukes, Majors and Hagues of the future probably aren't coming through.
Agreed.
Btw, I think Alex Chalk is an exception, but he looks doomed at the GE.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
This is becoming as traditional as reporting the first cuckoo.
I'm told multiple letters of no confidence in the prime minister went in yesterday. Rebel MPs were unhappy about the way the vote was handled by the PM being seen as a final straw. Some had held back from putting theirs in, in December. https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1747888008487932137
If the rebels lose the whip, are their letters null and void?
I'd assume so.
Yes, but they'll still complain and whine and have tantrums about that, like they complained when they demanded Brexit and discovered they no longer had influence in Europe.
Interesting NBC polling of the Iowa Republican caucus goers. Only 71% of them will vote for Trump if he is their candidate. Those who voted Haley are especially down on him.
11% would vote Biden.
Also, 31% think he is not fit to be the candidate if convicted of a felony.
These are awful numbers for Trump. Plenty of Republicans won't vote MAGA.
Were they actual Republicans though? There were suggestions that Democrats were gatecrashing the GOP caucuses in the absence of their own and in a forlorn attempt to stop Trump.
There is always an element of that. Maximum 11% of Democrat interlopers though (those who'd vote Biden).
But the turnout was low - and even acknowledging the weather was horrific, the enthusiasm for Trump was not overwhelming.
The game is over for Trump if he gets a conviction as a felon before November. Interesting to see how many still peel away next month when he's clearly a fraudster in a civil case that awards the state of New York hundreds of millions in disgorgement for cooking the books. When found guilty of fraud, is the civil/criminal distinction going to be that important?
Every reference by the Democrats to Trump is going to be preceded by "fraudster".
I'm surprised they don't more often call him a rapist, which a civil court has ruled that he is.
Plays right into Trump's "I'm a victim, just like you" schtick. Getting into a name calling spat with Trump is not a winning strategy.
Let NY fine him.
Then use the line “he stole $350m from the State of New York. Money that came from hard working taxpayers like you and you. People who had a job, worked hard and obeyed their the rules. Money that otherwise would have done X, Y and Z”
Better. But I think it comes down to the economy and household finance rather than killer attack lines. Minds are made up long ago, but better finances can drive Biden turnout up or down.
Another thing I didn't have on my 2024 bingo card: conflict between Pakistan and... Iran?
Iran's acting like the drunken, violent fool outside a pub, swinging punches at anyone coming out the door whilst shouting "Come here and have a go if you think you're 'ard enough!" Trying to close the Red Sea via their Houthi puppets; striking Iraq; striking Pakistan; giving weapons to Russia.
Unusually, for a country where alcohol is verboten.
The Islamic Republic has had a problem with chronic alcoholism and alcohol deaths for a while now due to people making their own including something called Aragh. A local moonshine.
Prohibition doesn’t work, who knew?
Banning things that are relatively easy to make, almost always results in people making it anyway. Even in Saudi there’s discussions about whether or not their new Neom resorts are going to be licenced, and they’ve already opened cinemas, theatres, and are spending a lot of money on sporting events.
They’re trying to attract tourists, and at the moment a significant number of their locals escape every weekend to neighbouring countries with more liberal policies towards entertainment.
There used to be a long railway bridge over the Solway Firth, from near Bowness on Solway in Cumbria to Annan in Scotland. After the railway closed, every Sunday Scottish men would cross the bridge on foot to drink in English pubs as Scottish pubs were closed on Sundays.
It closed to passengers in about 1920. I once knew someone, born about 1909, from the English side who went to school in Annan on the line every day until it closed. The footings of the bridge and bits of the line can still be located. The bridge itself looks fragile in the extreme as you can see on the website about it.
It was very brittle; an ice flow destroyed part of it. I loved the following from that website:
" contractor [Mr McKerrow?] was summoned to survey the damage with a view to repairs, and he arrived, with his apparatus, at low tide. Setting his instruments etc., on what he thought to be a safe stretch of shore, he withdrew, only to find that on his return that his possessions were severely embedded in the wet sand. He hired some of the local men to get them out for him, and these … proceeded to join hands and dance around the buried instruments, to the very great surprise of the engineer. The reason to them was plain enough: before they could dig the sand they must first of all stamp out the greater part of moisture from it …’ (John Howes, 1950)"
Strictly speaking, Scots pubs or hotels/inns anyway weren't closed for drinks to bona fide travellers - but you had to do the travelling first, even if it was just a walk of a few miles. In this case England just happened to be the nearest place to travel to.
They did also repair the viaduct with minor redesign after the ice floe disaster. The final demolition was due to maintenance costs.
(Recently treated myself to the nice newish book frokm Oakwood Press on the Viaduct or more correctly the Solway Junction Railway of which it was part. No point in the viaduct unless you hook it up to the other lines ...)
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
Interesting NBC polling of the Iowa Republican caucus goers. Only 71% of them will vote for Trump if he is their candidate. Those who voted Haley are especially down on him.
11% would vote Biden.
Also, 31% think he is not fit to be the candidate if convicted of a felony.
These are awful numbers for Trump. Plenty of Republicans won't vote MAGA.
Were they actual Republicans though? There were suggestions that Democrats were gatecrashing the GOP caucuses in the absence of their own and in a forlorn attempt to stop Trump.
There is always an element of that. Maximum 11% of Democrat interlopers though (those who'd vote Biden).
But the turnout was low - and even acknowledging the weather was horrific, the enthusiasm for Trump was not overwhelming.
The game is over for Trump if he gets a conviction as a felon before November. Interesting to see how many still peel away next month when he's clearly a fraudster in a civil case that awards the state of New York hundreds of millions in disgorgement for cooking the books. When found guilty of fraud, is the civil/criminal distinction going to be that important?
Every reference by the Democrats to Trump is going to be preceded by "fraudster".
I genuinely hope that you are right Mark and that I am wrong but so far all of Trump's many, many reverses in various courts, both criminal and civil seem to consolidated his support rather than ending it.
Can you think of any politician in this country whose career would survive a finding that he had sexually assaulted a woman? Or that he was guilty of large scale fraud (that has already been determined, the court in the present case is simply determining the penalties), or that he was guilty or insurrection and therefore not eligible for office?
For his supporters, these findings are simply evidence that the liberal establishment are out to get their man by fair means or foul. And, sadly, there is the smallest whiff of truth in that. The hope has to be that the independents vote for not Trump in sufficient numbers to defeat him. Again. But so far the polling is alarming.
Trump is about to be at the very sharp end of the judicial system. First in the civil courts; then in the criminal courts that lead to jail. Sure there have been previous cases he has shrugged off. But he isn't going to shrug off these.
First, he will be hit with tens of millions for defamation. The same damages expert that got Rudy Giuliani hit for $148m is going to be hitting Trump too. And Trump keeps defaming her in his social media, day after day. It's his personal cash getting bled. Melania has reportedly renegotiated her pre-nup - she is incredibly angry that her son's inheritance is being pissed up a wall. The visible contempt for her husband is the subject of multiple video clips. Be surprised if the marriage survives beyond November.
The New York case will demolish Trump's schtick of being this great businessman. His property empire has engaged in serial fraud that has allowed him to get significantly lower interest rates not available to the average voter, especially those who have been struggling to keep their business afloat. He has cooked the books. For years. This is a matter of record, not something dreamt up by Joe Biden. He can scream about being a victim as much as he likes. But this is HIS doing - and it will undermine his claim to be fit to be President. "Would you let a fraudster run the country?" is a powerful message not available in 2020.
Then there are the criminal cases. Bear in mind here that the prosecutors have been serially turning his close inner circle, those wise enough not to go to jail for Trump. Their evidence will be damning. The story around January 6th will be that he stoked insurrection. The story around stealing the election will be that he was at the centre of the scam of alternate electors. The story around his taking away top secret documents for his personal trading chips will be damning.
None of these issues are getting him new voters. Many will be more determined to turn out to ensure he is nowhere near office ever again. But each court case will chip away some of his core vote.
We have a tendency to caricature the Trump vote as all being thick as pig shit; but many are more nuanced in their balancing Trump versus Biden. As the US economy looks stronger - especially inflation sharply down, stock market highs and record job creation - Biden's legacy for the past four years is coming good at just the right time. The number prepared to throw their lot in with Trump will start to turn down. Catastrophically so when he is in the orange jumpsuit of a federal penitentiary.
I would like to agree with you, MM, I really would. I don't doubt one word of the facts you have enunciated - just your analysis of the American public. From where I am sitting (admittedly, a very long way away from Iowa) it seems to me that the Great American Public simply do not care about Trump's personal morality, competence or crookedness. They just don't care. As Trump once said, something to the effect of "If I shot someone in broad daylight on 5th Avenue I would still get elected!" He was right.
Tories on 20%. Fukkers on 12% pre Farage. Sunak to give triumphant presser about how thanks to his canny skills in the Commons he will now Stop The Boats.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
It's also rather more to do with average family size by ethnicity than with direct immigration.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
Meanwhile, Labour have a 15 point lead over the Tories and Reform combined.
The difference in the UK is that we've tried the Brexit/hostile approach to immigration and still have record numbers coming here, legally and otherwise.
Another thing I didn't have on my 2024 bingo card: conflict between Pakistan and... Iran?
Iran's acting like the drunken, violent fool outside a pub, swinging punches at anyone coming out the door whilst shouting "Come here and have a go if you think you're 'ard enough!" Trying to close the Red Sea via their Houthi puppets; striking Iraq; striking Pakistan; giving weapons to Russia.
Unusually, for a country where alcohol is verboten.
The Islamic Republic has had a problem with chronic alcoholism and alcohol deaths for a while now due to people making their own including something called Aragh. A local moonshine.
Prohibition doesn’t work, who knew?
Banning things that are relatively easy to make, almost always results in people making it anyway. Even in Saudi there’s discussions about whether or not their new Neom resorts are going to be licenced, and they’ve already opened cinemas, theatres, and are spending a lot of money on sporting events.
They’re trying to attract tourists, and at the moment a significant number of their locals escape every weekend to neighbouring countries with more liberal policies towards entertainment.
There used to be a long railway bridge over the Solway Firth, from near Bowness on Solway in Cumbria to Annan in Scotland. After the railway closed, every Sunday Scottish men would cross the bridge on foot to drink in English pubs as Scottish pubs were closed on Sundays.
It closed to passengers in about 1920. I once knew someone, born about 1909, from the English side who went to school in Annan on the line every day until it closed. The footings of the bridge and bits of the line can still be located. The bridge itself looks fragile in the extreme as you can see on the website about it.
It was very brittle; an ice flow destroyed part of it. I loved the following from that website:
" contractor [Mr McKerrow?] was summoned to survey the damage with a view to repairs, and he arrived, with his apparatus, at low tide. Setting his instruments etc., on what he thought to be a safe stretch of shore, he withdrew, only to find that on his return that his possessions were severely embedded in the wet sand. He hired some of the local men to get them out for him, and these … proceeded to join hands and dance around the buried instruments, to the very great surprise of the engineer. The reason to them was plain enough: before they could dig the sand they must first of all stamp out the greater part of moisture from it …’ (John Howes, 1950)"
Strictly speaking, Scots pubs or hotels/inns anyway weren't closed for drinks to bona fide travellers - but you had to do the travelling first, even if it was just a walk of a few miles. In this case England just happened to be the nearest place to travel to.
They did also repair the viaduct with minor redesign after the ice floe disaster. The final demolition was due to maintenance costs.
(Recently treated myself to the nice newish book frokm Oakwood Press on the Viaduct or more correctly the Solway Junction Railway of which it was part. No point in the viaduct unless you hook it up to the other lines ...)
ISTR there's a beautiful stone viaduct to the west of York that never carried a single train.
Interesting NBC polling of the Iowa Republican caucus goers. Only 71% of them will vote for Trump if he is their candidate. Those who voted Haley are especially down on him.
11% would vote Biden.
Also, 31% think he is not fit to be the candidate if convicted of a felony.
These are awful numbers for Trump. Plenty of Republicans won't vote MAGA.
Were they actual Republicans though? There were suggestions that Democrats were gatecrashing the GOP caucuses in the absence of their own and in a forlorn attempt to stop Trump.
There is always an element of that. Maximum 11% of Democrat interlopers though (those who'd vote Biden).
But the turnout was low - and even acknowledging the weather was horrific, the enthusiasm for Trump was not overwhelming.
The game is over for Trump if he gets a conviction as a felon before November. Interesting to see how many still peel away next month when he's clearly a fraudster in a civil case that awards the state of New York hundreds of millions in disgorgement for cooking the books. When found guilty of fraud, is the civil/criminal distinction going to be that important?
Every reference by the Democrats to Trump is going to be preceded by "fraudster".
I genuinely hope that you are right Mark and that I am wrong but so far all of Trump's many, many reverses in various courts, both criminal and civil seem to consolidated his support rather than ending it.
Can you think of any politician in this country whose career would survive a finding that he had sexually assaulted a woman? Or that he was guilty of large scale fraud (that has already been determined, the court in the present case is simply determining the penalties), or that he was guilty or insurrection and therefore not eligible for office?
For his supporters, these findings are simply evidence that the liberal establishment are out to get their man by fair means or foul. And, sadly, there is the smallest whiff of truth in that. The hope has to be that the independents vote for not Trump in sufficient numbers to defeat him. Again. But so far the polling is alarming.
I think the issue is a large number of voters only hear Fpx News’ version of the truth
Another thing I didn't have on my 2024 bingo card: conflict between Pakistan and... Iran?
Iran's acting like the drunken, violent fool outside a pub, swinging punches at anyone coming out the door whilst shouting "Come here and have a go if you think you're 'ard enough!" Trying to close the Red Sea via their Houthi puppets; striking Iraq; striking Pakistan; giving weapons to Russia.
Unusually, for a country where alcohol is verboten.
The Islamic Republic has had a problem with chronic alcoholism and alcohol deaths for a while now due to people making their own including something called Aragh. A local moonshine.
Prohibition doesn’t work, who knew?
Banning things that are relatively easy to make, almost always results in people making it anyway. Even in Saudi there’s discussions about whether or not their new Neom resorts are going to be licenced, and they’ve already opened cinemas, theatres, and are spending a lot of money on sporting events.
They’re trying to attract tourists, and at the moment a significant number of their locals escape every weekend to neighbouring countries with more liberal policies towards entertainment.
There used to be a long railway bridge over the Solway Firth, from near Bowness on Solway in Cumbria to Annan in Scotland. After the railway closed, every Sunday Scottish men would cross the bridge on foot to drink in English pubs as Scottish pubs were closed on Sundays.
It closed to passengers in about 1920. I once knew someone, born about 1909, from the English side who went to school in Annan on the line every day until it closed. The footings of the bridge and bits of the line can still be located. The bridge itself looks fragile in the extreme as you can see on the website about it.
It was very brittle; an ice flow destroyed part of it. I loved the following from that website:
" contractor [Mr McKerrow?] was summoned to survey the damage with a view to repairs, and he arrived, with his apparatus, at low tide. Setting his instruments etc., on what he thought to be a safe stretch of shore, he withdrew, only to find that on his return that his possessions were severely embedded in the wet sand. He hired some of the local men to get them out for him, and these … proceeded to join hands and dance around the buried instruments, to the very great surprise of the engineer. The reason to them was plain enough: before they could dig the sand they must first of all stamp out the greater part of moisture from it …’ (John Howes, 1950)"
Strictly speaking, Scots pubs or hotels/inns anyway weren't closed for drinks to bona fide travellers - but you had to do the travelling first, even if it was just a walk of a few miles. In this case England just happened to be the nearest place to travel to.
They did also repair the viaduct with minor redesign after the ice floe disaster. The final demolition was due to maintenance costs.
(Recently treated myself to the nice newish book frokm Oakwood Press on the Viaduct or more correctly the Solway Junction Railway of which it was part. No point in the viaduct unless you hook it up to the other lines ...)
ISTR there's a beautiful stone viaduct to the west of York that never carried a single train.
Never heard of it! For the best wrong reason too - the George Hudson's main line to Leeds but he crashed first ... though I see they did i n the end use it, for a siding to a local mill.
Tories on 20%. Fukkers on 12% pre Farage. Sunak to give triumphant presser about how thanks to his canny skills in the Commons he will now Stop The Boats.
Tories. The abyss becons.
Good morning
And so rebels announce they have sent in letters this morning
Time to end this charade but I still expect a November GE as Sunak would easily win a vonc
Sunak's problem is he has been unable to formulate a political strategy and execute on it consistently:
- Is he a safe pair of hands getting the economy under control and investing for the future? Binning long-term infrastructure projects to help finance pre-election tax cuts (despite a big deficit) doesn't suggest so.
- Are we voting for a change or continuity candidate from recent Tory governments? If the latter the 'change' offered feels very familiar.
- Is he on the populist right or not? The Rwanda policy suggests yes, as does defining himself to be tall by law (or was that Rwanda is a safe country?). But will he be willing to go far enough to force this through the Lords and the Supreme Court such that anyone actually goes to Rwanda before the next election? I expect not, and his failure (on his own terms) here has led to Reform growing in the polls.
It's like the reverse Boris 2019 plan. He was able to hold onto the blue wall while appealing beyond the Tory natural base. Sunak is on track to alienate the blue wall while failing to convince the types of voters Boris won over.
Whatever change it was that we wanted, it isn’t the one we are getting.
Competence would have been nice, for a change.
I was hoping for genuine economic competence. Not just better than Truss, that was a given, but long term planning and a proper focus on our main issues (balance of trade, investment, productivity, education).
I think Hunt has done pretty well as Chancellor, within the boundaries set by his boss. It is Sunak who has really disappointed. The guy is genuinely bright, has a very successful career in financial services behind him and he really just doesn't seem to get it. The HS2 decision was a terrible decision for large swathes of the country. The logistics of getting around this relatively small country of ours, both for individuals and goods, are truly terrible and an inhibition of growth.
Hunt did some good work on encouraging investment in the budget but he could and should have gone further, even at the cost of the NI cuts. No one is talking about the balance of payments. It is critical to our future standard of living and it is simply not being addressed. We need to encourage more training. There is so much to do to get this country back on the road that someone with a reasonable grounding in economics and finance should have appreciated. I'm disappointed.
And as for this Rwanda nonsense....
Balance of payments is a funny one, isn't it?
When I was young, there were whole hour-long programmes about it, with a twenty-minute explainer documentary followed by a long-form interview with Brian Walden pressing some top politician as to what they were going to do about the balance of payments.
Nowadays it isn't even reported, or at least not anywhere prominently, and doesn't feature in political discourse at all.
Yes, I remember when the monthly figures were headline news. But we are getting poorer at a rate of in excess of £90bn a year and have been for a very long time now. Cumulatively, this is why our standard of living is falling behind so much of western Europe. And its getting worse every year.
The UK's trade deficit is pretty much equivalent to the UK's tourism deficit.
With the trade balance being positive in 2020 and almost so in 2021 when travel restrictions were in force.
Anybody know the words to The Red Flag because I may sing it soon.
Rachel Reeves hints at Labour tax cuts for top earners
Shadow chancellor seeks to recast party as the champion of growth
Rachel Reeves has hinted at tax cuts for top earners as the shadow chancellor attempts to recast Labour as the party of economic growth.
Ms Reeves vowed to ensure “success is celebrated” under a Labour government as she outlined ambitions to ease the burden of Rishi Sunak’s multi-year stealth tax raid on workers.
Speaking to The Telegraph at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, she said that lowering taxes on “working people” remains a priority, including those paying the highest 45p rate.
Ms Reeves said that freezing income tax thresholds in the face of rising inflation “has affected people paying the top rate of tax and the basic rate of tax, and both of those groups of people are working hard, but getting less every month in their pay packets.”
Tories on 20%. Fukkers on 12% pre Farage. Sunak to give triumphant presser about how thanks to his canny skills in the Commons he will now Stop The Boats.
Tories. The abyss becons.
Good morning
And so rebels announce they have sent in letters this morning
Time to end this charade but I still expect a November GE as Sunak would easily win a vonc
John Major, of course, had a fraction of the majority; had to resign as leader and defeat a challenge; faced constant back bench rebellions nonetheless; saw Labour at one point around 60% in the polls - and still lasted to the final possible day of his five year term.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
Meanwhile, Labour have a 15 point lead over the Tories and Reform combined.
The difference in the UK is that we've tried the Brexit/hostile approach to immigration and still have record numbers coming here, legally and otherwise.
and the conclusion must be that, despite our theoretically being able to control all but the illegal element of it, the numbers coming here are driven more by demand - that we need people to fill jobs - than supply.
Another thing I didn't have on my 2024 bingo card: conflict between Pakistan and... Iran?
Iran's acting like the drunken, violent fool outside a pub, swinging punches at anyone coming out the door whilst shouting "Come here and have a go if you think you're 'ard enough!" Trying to close the Red Sea via their Houthi puppets; striking Iraq; striking Pakistan; giving weapons to Russia.
Unusually, for a country where alcohol is verboten.
The Islamic Republic has had a problem with chronic alcoholism and alcohol deaths for a while now due to people making their own including something called Aragh. A local moonshine.
Prohibition doesn’t work, who knew?
Banning things that are relatively easy to make, almost always results in people making it anyway. Even in Saudi there’s discussions about whether or not their new Neom resorts are going to be licenced, and they’ve already opened cinemas, theatres, and are spending a lot of money on sporting events.
They’re trying to attract tourists, and at the moment a significant number of their locals escape every weekend to neighbouring countries with more liberal policies towards entertainment.
There used to be a long railway bridge over the Solway Firth, from near Bowness on Solway in Cumbria to Annan in Scotland. After the railway closed, every Sunday Scottish men would cross the bridge on foot to drink in English pubs as Scottish pubs were closed on Sundays.
It closed to passengers in about 1920. I once knew someone, born about 1909, from the English side who went to school in Annan on the line every day until it closed. The footings of the bridge and bits of the line can still be located. The bridge itself looks fragile in the extreme as you can see on the website about it.
It was very brittle; an ice flow destroyed part of it. I loved the following from that website:
" contractor [Mr McKerrow?] was summoned to survey the damage with a view to repairs, and he arrived, with his apparatus, at low tide. Setting his instruments etc., on what he thought to be a safe stretch of shore, he withdrew, only to find that on his return that his possessions were severely embedded in the wet sand. He hired some of the local men to get them out for him, and these … proceeded to join hands and dance around the buried instruments, to the very great surprise of the engineer. The reason to them was plain enough: before they could dig the sand they must first of all stamp out the greater part of moisture from it …’ (John Howes, 1950)"
Strictly speaking, Scots pubs or hotels/inns anyway weren't closed for drinks to bona fide travellers - but you had to do the travelling first, even if it was just a walk of a few miles. In this case England just happened to be the nearest place to travel to.
They did also repair the viaduct with minor redesign after the ice floe disaster. The final demolition was due to maintenance costs.
(Recently treated myself to the nice newish book frokm Oakwood Press on the Viaduct or more correctly the Solway Junction Railway of which it was part. No point in the viaduct unless you hook it up to the other lines ...)
ISTR there's a beautiful stone viaduct to the west of York that never carried a single train.
Never heard of it! For the best wrong reason too - the George Hudson's main line to Leeds but he crashed first ... though I see they did i n the end use it, for a siding to a local mill.
Yes, apols, I got that wrong about no train ever crossing it. Though it was a grand structure for a siding!
I've often thought that Hudson and his wife would make for a great TV drama. That, and possibly Peto as well - an MP, a baronet; a self-made man who helped build the world (and was the world's biggest employer), who died penniless and in obscurity.
Nowadays, the mighty don't seem to fall as they once did. Hudson because he was a fraudster; Peto mainly though bad luck. There's f-all chance of Musky-baby falling in the same way.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
It's also rather more to do with average family size by ethnicity than with direct immigration.
I don't think that alone would lead to such a dramatic change in a few years though (I should have added 'in a few years' to my original comment - which I know is true because it wasn't the case when my oldest was at the school). Now there are local circumstances - the school has just added a third form to each year, so to fill up is currently taking in anyone new who arrives in Sale, not just the square mile or so surrounding the school. And also we get a lot of Hong Kong Chinese in Sale - these are undeniably immigrants but (along with Ukrainians) no-one but the hardest of hardline against immigration tend to complain about immigration from HK. But still - the number of nationalities and languages represented at a school where five years ago English as a first language was near-universal and the most exotic pupils were Canadian is quite startling.
Tories on 20%. Fukkers on 12% pre Farage. Sunak to give triumphant presser about how thanks to his canny skills in the Commons he will now Stop The Boats.
Tories. The abyss becons.
Good morning
And so rebels announce they have sent in letters this morning
Time to end this charade but I still expect a November GE as Sunak would easily win a vonc
Did you see today’s YouGov poll in the times? Tories on 20%, Labour on 47%
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
Meanwhile, Labour have a 15 point lead over the Tories and Reform combined.
The difference in the UK is that we've tried the Brexit/hostile approach to immigration and still have record numbers coming here, legally and otherwise.
and the conclusion must be that, despite our theoretically being able to control all but the illegal element of it, the numbers coming here are driven more by demand - that we need people to fill jobs - than supply.
Some what startled to come across a Conservative MP's website yesterday, demanding British military boots on the ground in Calais etc. and British services out in the Channel sinking the Boats if it's what it took etc. etc.
Another thing I didn't have on my 2024 bingo card: conflict between Pakistan and... Iran?
Iran's acting like the drunken, violent fool outside a pub, swinging punches at anyone coming out the door whilst shouting "Come here and have a go if you think you're 'ard enough!" Trying to close the Red Sea via their Houthi puppets; striking Iraq; striking Pakistan; giving weapons to Russia.
Unusually, for a country where alcohol is verboten.
The Islamic Republic has had a problem with chronic alcoholism and alcohol deaths for a while now due to people making their own including something called Aragh. A local moonshine.
Prohibition doesn’t work, who knew?
Banning things that are relatively easy to make, almost always results in people making it anyway. Even in Saudi there’s discussions about whether or not their new Neom resorts are going to be licenced, and they’ve already opened cinemas, theatres, and are spending a lot of money on sporting events.
They’re trying to attract tourists, and at the moment a significant number of their locals escape every weekend to neighbouring countries with more liberal policies towards entertainment.
There used to be a long railway bridge over the Solway Firth, from near Bowness on Solway in Cumbria to Annan in Scotland. After the railway closed, every Sunday Scottish men would cross the bridge on foot to drink in English pubs as Scottish pubs were closed on Sundays.
It closed to passengers in about 1920. I once knew someone, born about 1909, from the English side who went to school in Annan on the line every day until it closed. The footings of the bridge and bits of the line can still be located. The bridge itself looks fragile in the extreme as you can see on the website about it.
It was very brittle; an ice flow destroyed part of it. I loved the following from that website:
" contractor [Mr McKerrow?] was summoned to survey the damage with a view to repairs, and he arrived, with his apparatus, at low tide. Setting his instruments etc., on what he thought to be a safe stretch of shore, he withdrew, only to find that on his return that his possessions were severely embedded in the wet sand. He hired some of the local men to get them out for him, and these … proceeded to join hands and dance around the buried instruments, to the very great surprise of the engineer. The reason to them was plain enough: before they could dig the sand they must first of all stamp out the greater part of moisture from it …’ (John Howes, 1950)"
Strictly speaking, Scots pubs or hotels/inns anyway weren't closed for drinks to bona fide travellers - but you had to do the travelling first, even if it was just a walk of a few miles. In this case England just happened to be the nearest place to travel to.
They did also repair the viaduct with minor redesign after the ice floe disaster. The final demolition was due to maintenance costs.
(Recently treated myself to the nice newish book frokm Oakwood Press on the Viaduct or more correctly the Solway Junction Railway of which it was part. No point in the viaduct unless you hook it up to the other lines ...)
ISTR there's a beautiful stone viaduct to the west of York that never carried a single train.
Never heard of it! For the best wrong reason too - the George Hudson's main line to Leeds but he crashed first ... though I see they did i n the end use it, for a siding to a local mill.
Yes, apols, I got that wrong about no train ever crossing it. Though it was a grand structure for a siding!
I've often thought that Hudson and his wife would make for a great TV drama. That, and possibly Peto as well - an MP, a baronet; a self-made man who helped build the world (and was the world's biggest employer), who died penniless and in obscurity.
Nowadays, the mighty don't seem to fall as they once did. Hudson because he was a fraudster; Peto mainly though bad luck. There's f-all chance of Musky-baby falling in the same way.
Oh, the siding made it an even better story! (Reminds me of the earthworks between Melton and Oakham IIRC ...).
Zients’ call to Hutchinson effectively marked a repudiation of the DNC — and a particularly swift clean-up job by the White House.
The chief of staff’s damage-control effort reflects the central importance of anti-Trump Republicans in the 2024 campaign.
The Biden reelection operation has identified those Republicans as a core constituency. Though Hutchinson is a conservative, his firm rejection of the former president has set him apart from the vast majority of Republicans. The former governor has said he will not vote for Trump if Trump is convicted in one of his current federal or state trials.
White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre, when asked about the exchange during Wednesday’s press briefing, said President Joe Biden has a “deep respect” for the governor and “admires the race he ran.”
“The president knows him to be a man of principle who cares about our country and has a strong record of public service,” Jean-Pierre said. “This morning, the chief of staff here, Jeff Zients, called the governor to convey this and apologized for the statement that did not represent the president’s views.”
In an interview later in the day on CNN, Hutchinson said he was “grateful” that Zients reached out to him.
“He took his time away and he apologized,” he said. “It meant a lot to me and to me that reflects the good parts of American politics. You fight hard, but at the end of the day you want to make sure you treat each other with respect. I appreciated the call.”..
Sunak's problem is he has been unable to formulate a political strategy and execute on it consistently:
- Is he a safe pair of hands getting the economy under control and investing for the future? Binning long-term infrastructure projects to help finance pre-election tax cuts (despite a big deficit) doesn't suggest so.
- Are we voting for a change or continuity candidate from recent Tory governments? If the latter the 'change' offered feels very familiar.
- Is he on the populist right or not? The Rwanda policy suggests yes, as does defining himself to be tall by law (or was that Rwanda is a safe country?). But will he be willing to go far enough to force this through the Lords and the Supreme Court such that anyone actually goes to Rwanda before the next election? I expect not, and his failure (on his own terms) here has led to Reform growing in the polls.
It's like the reverse Boris 2019 plan. He was able to hold onto the blue wall while appealing beyond the Tory natural base. Sunak is on track to alienate the blue wall while failing to convince the types of voters Boris won over.
Whatever change it was that we wanted, it isn’t the one we are getting.
Competence would have been nice, for a change.
I was hoping for genuine economic competence. Not just better than Truss, that was a given, but long term planning and a proper focus on our main issues (balance of trade, investment, productivity, education).
I think Hunt has done pretty well as Chancellor, within the boundaries set by his boss. It is Sunak who has really disappointed. The guy is genuinely bright, has a very successful career in financial services behind him and he really just doesn't seem to get it. The HS2 decision was a terrible decision for large swathes of the country. The logistics of getting around this relatively small country of ours, both for individuals and goods, are truly terrible and an inhibition of growth.
Hunt did some good work on encouraging investment in the budget but he could and should have gone further, even at the cost of the NI cuts. No one is talking about the balance of payments. It is critical to our future standard of living and it is simply not being addressed. We need to encourage more training. There is so much to do to get this country back on the road that someone with a reasonable grounding in economics and finance should have appreciated. I'm disappointed.
And as for this Rwanda nonsense....
Balance of payments is a funny one, isn't it?
When I was young, there were whole hour-long programmes about it, with a twenty-minute explainer documentary followed by a long-form interview with Brian Walden pressing some top politician as to what they were going to do about the balance of payments.
Nowadays it isn't even reported, or at least not anywhere prominently, and doesn't feature in political discourse at all.
Yes, I remember when the monthly figures were headline news. But we are getting poorer at a rate of in excess of £90bn a year and have been for a very long time now. Cumulatively, this is why our standard of living is falling behind so much of western Europe. And its getting worse every year.
The UK's trade deficit is pretty much equivalent to the UK's tourism deficit.
With the trade balance being positive in 2020 and almost so in 2021 when travel restrictions were in force.
A wider problem is that the UK has sold off so many of its assets that there's now a big deficit on investment income.
So we would have to run a trade surplus for many years merely to get back to an overall current account balance.
The sort of situation which, in a much earlier state of development, would once have caused crisis meetings in Nos. 10 and 11, banner headlines, and so on and so forth. One does feel one's age sometimes.
Sunak's problem is he has been unable to formulate a political strategy and execute on it consistently:
- Is he a safe pair of hands getting the economy under control and investing for the future? Binning long-term infrastructure projects to help finance pre-election tax cuts (despite a big deficit) doesn't suggest so.
- Are we voting for a change or continuity candidate from recent Tory governments? If the latter the 'change' offered feels very familiar.
- Is he on the populist right or not? The Rwanda policy suggests yes, as does defining himself to be tall by law (or was that Rwanda is a safe country?). But will he be willing to go far enough to force this through the Lords and the Supreme Court such that anyone actually goes to Rwanda before the next election? I expect not, and his failure (on his own terms) here has led to Reform growing in the polls.
It's like the reverse Boris 2019 plan. He was able to hold onto the blue wall while appealing beyond the Tory natural base. Sunak is on track to alienate the blue wall while failing to convince the types of voters Boris won over.
Whatever change it was that we wanted, it isn’t the one we are getting.
Competence would have been nice, for a change.
I was hoping for genuine economic competence. Not just better than Truss, that was a given, but long term planning and a proper focus on our main issues (balance of trade, investment, productivity, education).
I think Hunt has done pretty well as Chancellor, within the boundaries set by his boss. It is Sunak who has really disappointed. The guy is genuinely bright, has a very successful career in financial services behind him and he really just doesn't seem to get it. The HS2 decision was a terrible decision for large swathes of the country. The logistics of getting around this relatively small country of ours, both for individuals and goods, are truly terrible and an inhibition of growth.
Hunt did some good work on encouraging investment in the budget but he could and should have gone further, even at the cost of the NI cuts. No one is talking about the balance of payments. It is critical to our future standard of living and it is simply not being addressed. We need to encourage more training. There is so much to do to get this country back on the road that someone with a reasonable grounding in economics and finance should have appreciated. I'm disappointed.
And as for this Rwanda nonsense....
Balance of payments is a funny one, isn't it?
When I was young, there were whole hour-long programmes about it, with a twenty-minute explainer documentary followed by a long-form interview with Brian Walden pressing some top politician as to what they were going to do about the balance of payments.
Nowadays it isn't even reported, or at least not anywhere prominently, and doesn't feature in political discourse at all.
Balance of payments? Most of today's politicians would assume it was something they could put on expenses...
Up until the late 1980s economic concepts such as the BoP were a regular fixture of political discourse. It informed so much of the UK's approach not only to its relationship with the EEC/EU but also with countries such as the US.
It was also the prism through which many countries (notably the US and Canada) viewed the nascent economic threat of the EEC in the 1960s. My first PhD examined how the Kennedy administration responded to the EEC with the creation of the Trade Expansion Act in 1962; it used a complex series of tariffs and barriers to protect domestic industries and rebalance its payments deficit. If you can find a copy, I'd recommend Thomas Zeiler's "American Trade and Power in the 1960s" as a starting point.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
Meanwhile, Labour have a 15 point lead over the Tories and Reform combined.
The difference in the UK is that we've tried the Brexit/hostile approach to immigration and still have record numbers coming here, legally and otherwise.
and the conclusion must be that, despite our theoretically being able to control all but the illegal element of it, the numbers coming here are driven more by demand - that we need people to fill jobs - than supply.
We really don’t need them, what with AI taking over so many roles
Even us sex toy flint-knappers will face the techno-axe, eventually
Tories on 20%. Fukkers on 12% pre Farage. Sunak to give triumphant presser about how thanks to his canny skills in the Commons he will now Stop The Boats.
Tories. The abyss becons.
Good morning
And so rebels announce they have sent in letters this morning
Time to end this charade but I still expect a November GE as Sunak would easily win a vonc
Did you see today’s YouGov poll in the times? Tories on 20%, Labour on 47%
Crudely Baxtering this would seem to leave Labour with a majority of 410 and the Tories lagging a bit. We are all (including me) presuming this sort of outcome is impossible, though I wonder whether talk will turn to what happens in such an outcome.
There would be only two or three household names left, which would be interesting. Williamson. Tugendhat. Nokes. Zahawi.
Secondly, and this must be impossible, you would be able to drive from Land's End to Berwick through Labour territory. (Just as you always could through Tory territory, even in tough times for the Tories).
Maybe my prediction of NOM is looking a bit shaky.
Trollope apparently wrote the following nearly 150 years ago:
"Nevertheless a certain class of dishonesty, dishonesty magnificent in its proportions, and climbing into high places, has become at the same time so rampant and so splendid that there seems to be reason for fearing that men and women will be taught to feel that dishonesty, if it can become splendid, will cease to be abominable. If dishonesty can live in a gorgeous palace with pictures on all its walls, and gems in all its cupboards, with marble and ivory in all its corners, and can give Apician dinners, and get into Parliament, and deal in millions, then dishonesty is not disgraceful, and the man dishonest after such a fashion is not a low scoundrel. "
Times haven't changed. Except now, perhaps, the dishonest man is now lauded.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
Trollope apparently wrote the following nearly 150 years ago:
"Nevertheless a certain class of dishonesty, dishonesty magnificent in its proportions, and climbing into high places, has become at the same time so rampant and so splendid that there seems to be reason for fearing that men and women will be taught to feel that dishonesty, if it can become splendid, will cease to be abominable. If dishonesty can live in a gorgeous palace with pictures on all its walls, and gems in all its cupboards, with marble and ivory in all its corners, and can give Apician dinners, and get into Parliament, and deal in millions, then dishonesty is not disgraceful, and the man dishonest after such a fashion is not a low scoundrel. "
Times haven't changed. Except now, perhaps, the dishonest man is now lauded.
Trollope's sequence of six political novels (Phineas Finn etc) are less read than the Barchester ones but are wonderful, and keep the reader going for months.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
Oh do be quiet
This country has imported 1.3 million people in two years. Voters are noticing. See @Cookie’s comments above
This level of immigration is literally unprecedented in our history. It has never happened before. People didn’t ask for it, polls show they don’t want it, Brexit was driven - in large part - by people trying to stop it
And your pitiful answer to all this is “just stop talking about it”
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
The problem is a lack of discussion about the consequences of the various options. And the slight conflict between "Mass immigration is wonderful" and "To protect the environment and keep everyone happy, we must build no houses or places of employment."
For avoidance of doubt, my version is "Immigration is fine. We need to build 8 million more homes to catch up. And build one bedroom per person of net immigration. Forever. And if this upsets you, I am extremely happy."
Fixing Fujitsu software bugs in the Horizon IT system was too expensive. Flaws known since 1998. Fujitsu and Post Office gave false evidence to courts and let innocent people be convicted of fraud. Boosted profits and exec pay by destroying lives."
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
Oh do be quiet
This country has imported 1.3 million people in two years. Voters are noticing. See @Cookie’s comments above
This level of immigration is literally unprecedented in our history. It has never happened before. People didn’t ask for it, polls show they don’t want it, Brexit was driven - in large part - by people trying to stop it
And your pitiful answer to all this is “just stop talking about it”
And according to some on here, immigration has no effect on the housing crisis. It's all the fault of second home owners, apparently...
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
The problem is a lack of discussion about the consequences of the various options. And the slight conflict between "Mass immigration is wonderful" and "To protect the environment and keep everyone happy, we must build no houses or places of employment."
A simple law that caps immigration to the number of new properties (+ increase in school places and hospital beds) would solve a lot of problems.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
The problem is a lack of discussion about the consequences of the various options. And the slight conflict between "Mass immigration is wonderful" and "To protect the environment and keep everyone happy, we must build no houses or places of employment."
See also
The NHS is overwhelmed Our rivers are full of shit as the sewage system can’t cope We have a national housing shortage crisis
And so on, and so forth
And yet at the same time we are told this has nothing to do with mass immigration and the population of the UK rising by 1.3 million people in just two years. Even the dumbest voter no longer buys this bollocks
Another thing I didn't have on my 2024 bingo card: conflict between Pakistan and... Iran?
Iran's acting like the drunken, violent fool outside a pub, swinging punches at anyone coming out the door whilst shouting "Come here and have a go if you think you're 'ard enough!" Trying to close the Red Sea via their Houthi puppets; striking Iraq; striking Pakistan; giving weapons to Russia.
Unusually, for a country where alcohol is verboten.
The Islamic Republic has had a problem with chronic alcoholism and alcohol deaths for a while now due to people making their own including something called Aragh. A local moonshine.
Prohibition doesn’t work, who knew?
Banning things that are relatively easy to make, almost always results in people making it anyway. Even in Saudi there’s discussions about whether or not their new Neom resorts are going to be licenced, and they’ve already opened cinemas, theatres, and are spending a lot of money on sporting events.
They’re trying to attract tourists, and at the moment a significant number of their locals escape every weekend to neighbouring countries with more liberal policies towards entertainment.
There used to be a long railway bridge over the Solway Firth, from near Bowness on Solway in Cumbria to Annan in Scotland. After the railway closed, every Sunday Scottish men would cross the bridge on foot to drink in English pubs as Scottish pubs were closed on Sundays.
It closed to passengers in about 1920. I once knew someone, born about 1909, from the English side who went to school in Annan on the line every day until it closed. The footings of the bridge and bits of the line can still be located. The bridge itself looks fragile in the extreme as you can see on the website about it.
It was very brittle; an ice flow destroyed part of it. I loved the following from that website:
" contractor [Mr McKerrow?] was summoned to survey the damage with a view to repairs, and he arrived, with his apparatus, at low tide. Setting his instruments etc., on what he thought to be a safe stretch of shore, he withdrew, only to find that on his return that his possessions were severely embedded in the wet sand. He hired some of the local men to get them out for him, and these … proceeded to join hands and dance around the buried instruments, to the very great surprise of the engineer. The reason to them was plain enough: before they could dig the sand they must first of all stamp out the greater part of moisture from it …’ (John Howes, 1950)"
Strictly speaking, Scots pubs or hotels/inns anyway weren't closed for drinks to bona fide travellers - but you had to do the travelling first, even if it was just a walk of a few miles. In this case England just happened to be the nearest place to travel to.
They did also repair the viaduct with minor redesign after the ice floe disaster. The final demolition was due to maintenance costs.
(Recently treated myself to the nice newish book frokm Oakwood Press on the Viaduct or more correctly the Solway Junction Railway of which it was part. No point in the viaduct unless you hook it up to the other lines ...)
Newish indeed. My copy is from 1990, which feels like ancient history.
Tories on 20%. Fukkers on 12% pre Farage. Sunak to give triumphant presser about how thanks to his canny skills in the Commons he will now Stop The Boats.
Tories. The abyss becons.
Good morning
And so rebels announce they have sent in letters this morning
Time to end this charade but I still expect a November GE as Sunak would easily win a vonc
Did you see today’s YouGov poll in the times? Tories on 20%, Labour on 47%
Yes - it was discussed on here last night and it was no surprise and I expect the polls to be dire for the conservatives for quite a while
Starmer is heading into no 10 by the year end at the latest but his majority will be determined by just how many of the Reform UK and D/Ks who vote conservative when faced with the actual ballot paper
Interesting NBC polling of the Iowa Republican caucus goers. Only 71% of them will vote for Trump if he is their candidate. Those who voted Haley are especially down on him.
11% would vote Biden.
Also, 31% think he is not fit to be the candidate if convicted of a felony.
These are awful numbers for Trump. Plenty of Republicans won't vote MAGA.
Were they actual Republicans though? There were suggestions that Democrats were gatecrashing the GOP caucuses in the absence of their own and in a forlorn attempt to stop Trump.
There is always an element of that. Maximum 11% of Democrat interlopers though (those who'd vote Biden).
But the turnout was low - and even acknowledging the weather was horrific, the enthusiasm for Trump was not overwhelming.
The game is over for Trump if he gets a conviction as a felon before November. Interesting to see how many still peel away next month when he's clearly a fraudster in a civil case that awards the state of New York hundreds of millions in disgorgement for cooking the books. When found guilty of fraud, is the civil/criminal distinction going to be that important?
Every reference by the Democrats to Trump is going to be preceded by "fraudster".
I genuinely hope that you are right Mark and that I am wrong but so far all of Trump's many, many reverses in various courts, both criminal and civil seem to consolidated his support rather than ending it.
Can you think of any politician in this country whose career would survive a finding that he had sexually assaulted a woman? Or that he was guilty of large scale fraud (that has already been determined, the court in the present case is simply determining the penalties), or that he was guilty or insurrection and therefore not eligible for office?
For his supporters, these findings are simply evidence that the liberal establishment are out to get their man by fair means or foul. And, sadly, there is the smallest whiff of truth in that. The hope has to be that the independents vote for not Trump in sufficient numbers to defeat him. Again. But so far the polling is alarming.
Trump is about to be at the very sharp end of the judicial system. First in the civil courts; then in the criminal courts that lead to jail. Sure there have been previous cases he has shrugged off. But he isn't going to shrug off these.
First, he will be hit with tens of millions for defamation. The same damages expert that got Rudy Giuliani hit for $148m is going to be hitting Trump too. And Trump keeps defaming her in his social media, day after day. It's his personal cash getting bled. Melania has reportedly renegotiated her pre-nup - she is incredibly angry that her son's inheritance is being pissed up a wall. The visible contempt for her husband is the subject of multiple video clips. Be surprised if the marriage survives beyond November.
The New York case will demolish Trump's schtick of being this great businessman. His property empire has engaged in serial fraud that has allowed him to get significantly lower interest rates not available to the average voter, especially those who have been struggling to keep their business afloat. He has cooked the books. For years. This is a matter of record, not something dreamt up by Joe Biden. He can scream about being a victim as much as he likes. But this is HIS doing - and it will undermine his claim to be fit to be President. "Would you let a fraudster run the country?" is a powerful message not available in 2020.
Then there are the criminal cases. Bear in mind here that the prosecutors have been serially turning his close inner circle, those wise enough not to go to jail for Trump. Their evidence will be damning. The story around January 6th will be that he stoked insurrection. The story around stealing the election will be that he was at the centre of the scam of alternate electors. The story around his taking away top secret documents for his personal trading chips will be damning.
None of these issues are getting him new voters. Many will be more determined to turn out to ensure he is nowhere near office ever again. But each court case will chip away some of his core vote.
We have a tendency to caricature the Trump vote as all being thick as pig shit; but many are more nuanced in their balancing Trump versus Biden. As the US economy looks stronger - especially inflation sharply down, stock market highs and record job creation - Biden's legacy for the past four years is coming good at just the right time. The number prepared to throw their lot in with Trump will start to turn down. Catastrophically so when he is in the orange jumpsuit of a federal penitentiary.
Let me give you an opposite view.
Firstly, for Trump supporters, their support is all around identity. This article gets it right:
HIs support is, as the article notes, akin to the feelings people have for their favourite sports team or even singer (try and criticise Taylor Swift and see the wrath you get from the Swifties for example). Telling them they are thick, which many US commentators and many on here like to do when they sneer just has the opposite effect - it reinforces their support.
Then you have the point that - for many people - Trump also got it right on many of his actions and views (which is my view as well). This is Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan making this point yesterday.
Now, on his court cases, you may be right but I think you are wrong (and I am surprised that DavidL, as a legal practitioner, stated as a fact Trump was guilty of sexual assault given that was a civil trial, not a judicial one).
1. On his NY property lawsuit case, as @Dura_Ace said, he will just appeal. In any event, even as the FT has said (https://on.ft.com/3Q5IFGa), Trump's basic point that valuation is an art not a science is right. There is a good chance a judge at least at one level will accept that argument. There is also not the small issue that ruling that a valuation is potentially liable to be deemed fraudulent has major implications for the US financial industry.
2. On his defamation case, again he will just appeal and kick it into touch. The logic of the Manhattan jury was, in any event, bizarre - they convicted him of everything else bar the rape charge (i.e. we believe Jean Carroll in everything she says except we think - even on a balance of probability - she wasn't telling the truth about the rape charge).
3. On the criminal charges, the documents case in FLorida will get delayed post-the election. The Georgia case, as I highlighted a few days back, is blowing up in spectacular fashion as the DA now faces a potential criminal investigation for not disclosing she hired her (alleged) lover as a special prosecutor even though he had no experience. And Jack Smith, in the Washington DC case, is not doing well in trying to get the trial expedited.
The Democrats - and those who hate Trump - will do well to focus their energies and attention of working out how to defeat him at the ballot box instead of increasing looking, to more parts of the population, that they are trying anything and everything to get Trump out of the contest.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
Oh do be quiet
This country has imported 1.3 million people in two years. Voters are noticing. See @Cookie’s comments above
This level of immigration is literally unprecedented in our history. It has never happened before. People didn’t ask for it, polls show they don’t want it, Brexit was driven - in large part - by people trying to stop it
And your pitiful answer to all this is “just stop talking about it”
I'm not saying stop talking about it. That would be you with your "do be quiet".
Why does immigration being a genuine issue mean people should be able to bang on unchallenged about how we have to embrace far right talking points or they'll end up in power?
"Mass migration is about to sweep away the West’s blinkered ruling class The political elite seems incapable of grasping the challenge posed by legal and illegal immigration
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
Oh do be quiet
This country has imported 1.3 million people in two years. Voters are noticing. See @Cookie’s comments above
This level of immigration is literally unprecedented in our history. It has never happened before. People didn’t ask for it, polls show they don’t want it, Brexit was driven - in large part - by people trying to stop it
And your pitiful answer to all this is “just stop talking about it”
I'm not saying stop talking about it. That would be you with your "do be quiet".
Why does immigration being a genuine issue mean people should be able to bang on unchallenged about how we have to embrace far right talking points or they'll end up in power?
I don’t even understand your points any more. I believe the technical description of your commentary is, in PB terms, “vapid bilge”
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
The problem is a lack of discussion about the consequences of the various options. And the slight conflict between "Mass immigration is wonderful" and "To protect the environment and keep everyone happy, we must build no houses or places of employment."
A simple law that caps immigration to the number of new properties (+ increase in school places and hospital beds) would solve a lot of problems.
If you think the NIMBYs are bad now, wait until you tell them that blocking new housing will *keep out immigrants*.
Fixing Fujitsu software bugs in the Horizon IT system was too expensive. Flaws known since 1998. Fujitsu and Post Office gave false evidence to courts and let innocent people be convicted of fraud. Boosted profits and exec pay by destroying lives."
Why did Fujitsu need to have a fraud and litigation department? Litigation, I can understand. But fraud? What fraud and by whom was this department expecting to deal with?
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
Oh do be quiet
This country has imported 1.3 million people in two years. Voters are noticing. See @Cookie’s comments above
This level of immigration is literally unprecedented in our history. It has never happened before. People didn’t ask for it, polls show they don’t want it, Brexit was driven - in large part - by people trying to stop it
And your pitiful answer to all this is “just stop talking about it”
I'm not saying stop talking about it. That would be you with your "do be quiet".
Why does immigration being a genuine issue mean people should be able to bang on unchallenged about how we have to embrace far right talking points or they'll end up in power?
Part of the problem is that no one is saying, in politics, "For each head of net immigration, we need to build a bedroom, x percent of a hospital bed (staffed), y percent of a school place, z percent of pubic transport, alpha percent of road investment etc etc."
If you have a growing population, then you need more stuff. Because everyone needs a share.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
The problem is a lack of discussion about the consequences of the various options. And the slight conflict between "Mass immigration is wonderful" and "To protect the environment and keep everyone happy, we must build no houses or places of employment."
For avoidance of doubt, my version is "Immigration is fine. We need to build 8 million more homes to catch up. And build one bedroom per person of net immigration. Forever. And if this upsets you, I am extremely happy."
My position: "We need to reduce the UK's population so that there is limited need for the construction of new homes, and those that are built should be built exclusively on brown-field sites. The natural environment should be protected and enhanced, with a focus on biodiversity and rewilding."
Amusing Hansard entry for Coffey, preserved for posterity:
Hansard:
8.52pm Dr Thérèse Coffey (Suffolk Coastal) (Con)
It is important to speak in this debate. I have to say, I was somewhat astonished by the speech of the shadow Home Secretary, who cannot even get the name of the country right, talking about the Kigali Government when we are talking about Rwanda—a respected country that has recently been president of the Commonwealth.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
The problem is a lack of discussion about the consequences of the various options. And the slight conflict between "Mass immigration is wonderful" and "To protect the environment and keep everyone happy, we must build no houses or places of employment."
See also
The NHS is overwhelmed Our rivers are full of shit as the sewage system can’t cope We have a national housing shortage crisis
And so on, and so forth
And yet at the same time we are told this has nothing to do with mass immigration and the population of the UK rising by 1.3 million people in just two years. Even the dumbest voter no longer buys this bollocks
We have a shortage of housing because we refuse to let people build houses to cope with our population growth.
There's absolutely nothing wrong whatsoever with immigration, so long as we have sufficient investment to keep up with population growth.
The problem is when we have rising population and no investment.
Another thing I didn't have on my 2024 bingo card: conflict between Pakistan and... Iran?
Iran's acting like the drunken, violent fool outside a pub, swinging punches at anyone coming out the door whilst shouting "Come here and have a go if you think you're 'ard enough!" Trying to close the Red Sea via their Houthi puppets; striking Iraq; striking Pakistan; giving weapons to Russia.
Unusually, for a country where alcohol is verboten.
The Islamic Republic has had a problem with chronic alcoholism and alcohol deaths for a while now due to people making their own including something called Aragh. A local moonshine.
Prohibition doesn’t work, who knew?
Banning things that are relatively easy to make, almost always results in people making it anyway. Even in Saudi there’s discussions about whether or not their new Neom resorts are going to be licenced, and they’ve already opened cinemas, theatres, and are spending a lot of money on sporting events.
They’re trying to attract tourists, and at the moment a significant number of their locals escape every weekend to neighbouring countries with more liberal policies towards entertainment.
There used to be a long railway bridge over the Solway Firth, from near Bowness on Solway in Cumbria to Annan in Scotland. After the railway closed, every Sunday Scottish men would cross the bridge on foot to drink in English pubs as Scottish pubs were closed on Sundays.
It closed to passengers in about 1920. I once knew someone, born about 1909, from the English side who went to school in Annan on the line every day until it closed. The footings of the bridge and bits of the line can still be located. The bridge itself looks fragile in the extreme as you can see on the website about it.
It was very brittle; an ice flow destroyed part of it. I loved the following from that website:
" contractor [Mr McKerrow?] was summoned to survey the damage with a view to repairs, and he arrived, with his apparatus, at low tide. Setting his instruments etc., on what he thought to be a safe stretch of shore, he withdrew, only to find that on his return that his possessions were severely embedded in the wet sand. He hired some of the local men to get them out for him, and these … proceeded to join hands and dance around the buried instruments, to the very great surprise of the engineer. The reason to them was plain enough: before they could dig the sand they must first of all stamp out the greater part of moisture from it …’ (John Howes, 1950)"
Strictly speaking, Scots pubs or hotels/inns anyway weren't closed for drinks to bona fide travellers - but you had to do the travelling first, even if it was just a walk of a few miles. In this case England just happened to be the nearest place to travel to.
They did also repair the viaduct with minor redesign after the ice floe disaster. The final demolition was due to maintenance costs.
(Recently treated myself to the nice newish book frokm Oakwood Press on the Viaduct or more correctly the Solway Junction Railway of which it was part. No point in the viaduct unless you hook it up to the other lines ...)
Newish indeed. My copy is from 1990, which feels like ancient history.
Fixing Fujitsu software bugs in the Horizon IT system was too expensive. Flaws known since 1998. Fujitsu and Post Office gave false evidence to courts and let innocent people be convicted of fraud. Boosted profits and exec pay by destroying lives."
Why did Fujitsu need to have a fraud and litigation department? Litigation, I can understand. But fraud? What fraud and by whom was this department expecting to deal with?
“By God, this Department is well-named!” - with apologies to Sir Henry Esson
@{The East Midlands Serious Crime Squad has entered the chat, beaten a confession out of @kinabalu and robbed a couple of banks}
Mr. NorthWales, yikes. Hope that can be gotten quickly.
While I dislike the dripping, it is less horrendous (for now...) than when I went downstairs one morning last year and found the kitchen countertops soaking wet, with the water an inch or so from going onto the floor... that was less than splendid.
Fixing Fujitsu software bugs in the Horizon IT system was too expensive. Flaws known since 1998. Fujitsu and Post Office gave false evidence to courts and let innocent people be convicted of fraud. Boosted profits and exec pay by destroying lives."
Why did Fujitsu need to have a fraud and litigation department? Litigation, I can understand. But fraud? What fraud and by whom was this department expecting to deal with?
My guess is that Fujitsu sells services, and did back then. If you sell services, people can defraud you.
I know one of the companies selling IC design software as a service (with a multi-billion revenue) has a rather busy fraud department. Because other multi-billion dollar companies can't be ar*ed paying...
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
The problem is a lack of discussion about the consequences of the various options. And the slight conflict between "Mass immigration is wonderful" and "To protect the environment and keep everyone happy, we must build no houses or places of employment."
See also
The NHS is overwhelmed Our rivers are full of shit as the sewage system can’t cope We have a national housing shortage crisis
And so on, and so forth
And yet at the same time we are told this has nothing to do with mass immigration and the population of the UK rising by 1.3 million people in just two years. Even the dumbest voter no longer buys this bollocks
The difficulty is turning the sentiment into a politics and policy rather than right wing words. Four massive facts.
One. We already have a hugely multi ethnic/multi cultural community and a population which has grown by millions in a couple of decades, and 4 million in 10 years.
Two. Housing crisis
Three. Huge reliance in HE sector (students - HE sector goes bankrupt without them), NHS, service sector, and many others including agriculture and food on migration.
Four. Our birthrate has recently fallen fast.
In Germany (! of all places) a discussion is already turning at the far extremes to mass deportations. The right wing AfD is careful to separate itself from such talk.
The problem is identifying and implementing a policy which isn't a fascist one but delivers what Matt Goodwin keeps telling us most people want. What does it do? What does it look like?
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
The problem is a lack of discussion about the consequences of the various options. And the slight conflict between "Mass immigration is wonderful" and "To protect the environment and keep everyone happy, we must build no houses or places of employment."
See also
The NHS is overwhelmed Our rivers are full of shit as the sewage system can’t cope We have a national housing shortage crisis
And so on, and so forth
And yet at the same time we are told this has nothing to do with mass immigration and the population of the UK rising by 1.3 million people in just two years. Even the dumbest voter no longer buys this bollocks
It's not just the rivers that are full of shit. Anyway, I await the water companies coming along and saying that "the sewage problems aren't our fault, guv, it's all those immigrants what caused it".
Meanwhile, the government more or less ignores the large scale of legal migration to focus on the poor buggers trying to cross the Channel in this freezing weather, who constitute a small proportion of incomers. You couldn't make it up.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
Oh do be quiet
This country has imported 1.3 million people in two years. Voters are noticing. See @Cookie’s comments above
This level of immigration is literally unprecedented in our history. It has never happened before. People didn’t ask for it, polls show they don’t want it, Brexit was driven - in large part - by people trying to stop it
And your pitiful answer to all this is “just stop talking about it”
I'm not saying stop talking about it. That would be you with your "do be quiet".
Why does immigration being a genuine issue mean people should be able to bang on unchallenged about how we have to embrace far right talking points or they'll end up in power?
Part of the problem is that no one is saying, in politics, "For each head of net immigration, we need to build a bedroom, x percent of a hospital bed (staffed), y percent of a school place, z percent of pubic transport, alpha percent of road investment etc etc."
If you have a growing population, then you need more stuff. Because everyone needs a share.
That is obviously correct and a lot of people do say this, political parties are reluctant to though. The blame lies with the Tories for weaponising immigration when they knew it was coming and even have acted to increase it sharply through searching for foreign students and having very low pay thresholds for visa post Brexit. In turn Labour have become scared to state this obvious truth.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
The problem is a lack of discussion about the consequences of the various options. And the slight conflict between "Mass immigration is wonderful" and "To protect the environment and keep everyone happy, we must build no houses or places of employment."
See also
The NHS is overwhelmed Our rivers are full of shit as the sewage system can’t cope We have a national housing shortage crisis
And so on, and so forth
And yet at the same time we are told this has nothing to do with mass immigration and the population of the UK rising by 1.3 million people in just two years. Even the dumbest voter no longer buys this bollocks
We have a shortage of housing because we refuse to let people build houses to cope with our population growth.
There's absolutely nothing wrong whatsoever with immigration, so long as we have sufficient investment to keep up with population growth.
The problem is when we have rising population and no investment.
So you don’t think 1.3 million in 2 years is too many? (Plus illegals, of course)
How many is too many then? 2 million a year? 5 million? Or is fhere no limit in your eyes, and all immigration of any levels is good and fine?
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
Oh do be quiet
This country has imported 1.3 million people in two years. Voters are noticing. See @Cookie’s comments above
This level of immigration is literally unprecedented in our history. It has never happened before. People didn’t ask for it, polls show they don’t want it, Brexit was driven - in large part - by people trying to stop it
And your pitiful answer to all this is “just stop talking about it”
I'm not saying stop talking about it. That would be you with your "do be quiet".
Why does immigration being a genuine issue mean people should be able to bang on unchallenged about how we have to embrace far right talking points or they'll end up in power?
Part of the problem is that no one is saying, in politics, "For each head of net immigration, we need to build a bedroom, x percent of a hospital bed (staffed), y percent of a school place, z percent of pubic transport, alpha percent of road investment etc etc."
If you have a growing population, then you need more stuff. Because everyone needs a share.
And that should be balanced out by the other side of the equation: immigrants provide us with labour and services that help our country grow. Sadly, I fear we're well out of balance.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
Oh do be quiet
This country has imported 1.3 million people in two years. Voters are noticing. See @Cookie’s comments above
This level of immigration is literally unprecedented in our history. It has never happened before. People didn’t ask for it, polls show they don’t want it, Brexit was driven - in large part - by people trying to stop it
And your pitiful answer to all this is “just stop talking about it”
I'm not saying stop talking about it. That would be you with your "do be quiet".
Why does immigration being a genuine issue mean people should be able to bang on unchallenged about how we have to embrace far right talking points or they'll end up in power?
I'm not sure I follow. Your logic appears to be 'we mustn't be against immigration or the far right will get in.' Which seems to be not only the wrong way around, but also counter-productive.
The logic goes: 1 - Voters are really concerned about such really quite large and noticeable numbers of immigration. (Almost always they won't have an issue with individual immigrants, but they don't want to import quite so many people, for many reasons e.g. impact on housing, impact on their kids schools.) 2 - Most parties either refuse to talk about immigration or talk about it but don't actually do anything about it. 3 - The only parties which appear to care about the issue are far right ones. 4 - Therefore people vote far right.
Most people aren't particularly far right in any sense. But most people don't see the risk of inflaming far right sentiment as a worse bogey than all others. If the far right are the only parties who will address the issue they care about, people will vote for them.
Step 3 doesn't always go that way. There is that far left party in Germany which is also against immigration. And people are voting for that party too.
Essentially, Ethiopia wants a port. It's landlocked, despite having a large population, and this means fees charged by Dijibouti[sp] for handling the imports/exports by sea are very costly. Recognition of Somaliland in return for leasing a port would be an interesting move, but obviously Somalia's less than delighted.
Another possibility I've heard, not in this article, is a potential invasion of Eritrea to reclaim coastal territories (and ports) previously part of Ethiopia.
Reform could actually overtake the Tories. Esp if they get Nige on the case
Conversation at primary school door this morning from normally apolitical friend: "we [the school] has gone from less than 5% English as a foreign language to around 25%. You wouldn't think it would happen with a Tory government, would you?" I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
Immigration is going to overwhelm most polities in the west, sending them to the hard or far right
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
I'd rephrase slightly. The far right thrive on 'our country is being swamped and ruined by immigrants' sentiment. Therefore anyone with eyes can see the risk of feeding that sentiment.
The problem is a lack of discussion about the consequences of the various options. And the slight conflict between "Mass immigration is wonderful" and "To protect the environment and keep everyone happy, we must build no houses or places of employment."
See also
The NHS is overwhelmed Our rivers are full of shit as the sewage system can’t cope We have a national housing shortage crisis
And so on, and so forth
And yet at the same time we are told this has nothing to do with mass immigration and the population of the UK rising by 1.3 million people in just two years. Even the dumbest voter no longer buys this bollocks
The difficulty is turning the sentiment into a politics and policy rather than right wing words. Four massive facts.
One. We already have a hugely multi ethnic/multi cultural community and a population which has grown by millions in a couple of decades, and 4 million in 10 years.
Two. Housing crisis
Three. Huge reliance in HE sector (students - HE sector goes bankrupt without them), NHS, service sector, and many others including agriculture and food on migration.
Four. Our birthrate has recently fallen fast.
In Germany (! of all places) a discussion is already turning at the far extremes to mass deportations. The right wing AfD is careful to separate itself from such talk.
The problem is identifying and implementing a policy which isn't a fascist one but delivers what Matt Goodwin keeps telling us most people want. What does it do? What does it look like?
Good questions
I’m not sure there is an agreeable answer; in some countries the problem will culminate with civil strife and actual fascism
Comments
Biden promised me a reasonably competent administration run by non-psychopaths and non-sociopaths that would do some things I liked and other things I didn't, and I'd say he has 100% delivered.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1747608403340316857
Imagine being able to say all of that about our next government.
Too much to hope for ?
So it works like my watch, and car keys, huh?
Sunak's still a surprise, because they got landed with him despite a lot of resistance. We don't know how Mordaunt would have turned out, but she'd have been a moderate, sensible choice who, we remember, lost out mostly because of her view on some minor fringe issue.
It was a challenge Labour (and indeed all parties, to some extent) has also had, and for longer, with candidates of the more left-wing views preferred by local members. But Labour deals with it more directly through a combination of central HQ control, the influence of the trade unions, and a recognition that there's a game being played where people pitch left to get selected and then 'come out' as more moderate once in Parliament. Labour also has tighter control, and more levers to pull, over its parliamentary party.
Once upon a time the Tories appeared to choose according to a mix of competence, connections and social standing, which gave them a diversity problem but did throw up a good mix of mostly able people. Now, you have to be a nutter to get chosen, and the Clarkes, Gaukes, Majors and Hagues of the future probably aren't coming through.
I agreed with him, but it was just so bizarre to see such a naked editorial line. I felt actually uncomfortable. Part of me thinks it's because American TV journos are obsessed with being Edward Murrow and Walter Cronkite.
First, he will be hit with tens of millions for defamation. The same damages expert that got Rudy Giuliani hit for $148m is going to be hitting Trump too. And Trump keeps defaming her in his social media, day after day. It's his personal cash getting bled. Melania has reportedly renegotiated her pre-nup - she is incredibly angry that her son's inheritance is being pissed up a wall. The visible contempt for her husband is the subject of multiple video clips. Be surprised if the marriage survives beyond November.
The New York case will demolish Trump's schtick of being this great businessman. His property empire has engaged in serial fraud that has allowed him to get significantly lower interest rates not available to the average voter, especially those who have been struggling to keep their business afloat. He has cooked the books. For years. This is a matter of record, not something dreamt up by Joe Biden. He can scream about being a victim as much as he likes. But this is HIS doing - and it will undermine his claim to be fit to be President. "Would you let a fraudster run the country?" is a powerful message not available in 2020.
Then there are the criminal cases. Bear in mind here that the prosecutors have been serially turning his close inner circle, those wise enough not to go to jail for Trump. Their evidence will be damning. The story around January 6th will be that he stoked insurrection. The story around stealing the election will be that he was at the centre of the scam of alternate electors. The story around his taking away top secret documents for his personal trading chips will be damning.
None of these issues are getting him new voters. Many will be more determined to turn out to ensure he is nowhere near office ever again. But each court case will chip away some of his core vote.
We have a tendency to caricature the Trump vote as all being thick as pig shit; but many are more nuanced in their balancing Trump versus Biden. As the US economy looks stronger - especially inflation sharply down, stock market highs and record job creation - Biden's legacy for the past four years is coming good at just the right time. The number prepared to throw their lot in with Trump will start to turn down. Catastrophically so when he is in the orange jumpsuit of a federal penitentiary.
When they go on about impartiality and quality journalism, in the middle of their political rant, it adds insult to injury.
The likes of Cronkite would turn in their graves at what’s happened to their industry.
He says the heroin abuse is off the charts: it is the chosen drug of the posh and the poor; they have heroin parties
Basically mankind will always desire an intoxicant - and will take whatever it can. I’m sure the Iranians would prefer a nice glass of wine or a cold beer - but needs must
EXCLUSIVE:
The Tories have fallen to their lowest level of support since Liz Truss was prime minister, Yougov poll for Times finds
Support for Tories has fallen to 20%, a level not seen since October 2022 just before Truss was forced from office
Labour has a 27 point lead
Labour: 47% (+2)
Conservatives: 20% (-2)
Lib Dems: 8% (-1)
Reform: 12% (+4)
Green: 7% (-1)
https://crossingthemoss.wordpress.com/category/solway-junction-railway/
Not sure if a civil court ruling would justify the use of “convicted”
And this in the year of a general election
Desperate action is required. Only the Farage can save them
" contractor [Mr McKerrow?] was summoned to survey the damage with a view to repairs, and he arrived, with his apparatus, at low tide. Setting his instruments etc., on what he thought to be a safe stretch of shore, he withdrew, only to find that on his return that his possessions were severely embedded in the wet sand. He hired some of the local men to get them out for him, and these … proceeded to join hands and dance around the buried instruments, to the very great surprise of the engineer. The reason to them was plain enough: before they could dig the sand they must first of all stamp out the greater part of moisture from it …’ (John Howes, 1950)"
Then use the line “he stole $350m from the State of New York. Money that came from hard working taxpayers like you and you. People who had a job, worked hard and obeyed their the rules. Money that otherwise would have done X, Y and Z”
Btw, I think Alex Chalk is an exception, but he looks doomed at the GE.
I don't think this was a furious rant against immigration, more an expression of astonishment that the Tories of all people were letting what feels like such massive numbers into the country.
One lad has started this week. On Saturday, he was in Saudi Arabia; on Tuesday he saw his first ever snow. Anecdotally, he is frighteningly obedient and somewhat baffled when 'stop talking and get on with your work' isn't instantly complied with by everyone as multiple 9-year-old conversations are sotto voce brought to a close.
20% did raise an eyebrow or two though.
Do YOU give AFUK?
They did also repair the viaduct with minor redesign after the ice floe disaster. The final demolition was due to maintenance costs.
(Recently treated myself to the nice newish book frokm Oakwood Press on the Viaduct or more correctly the Solway Junction Railway of which it was part. No point in the viaduct unless you hook it up to the other lines ...)
Britain will follow, with a delay
Anyone with eyes can see this. A tipping point is being reached - from Stockholm to Berlin, from Arizona to Warsaw to Rome
Tories. The abyss becons.
The difference in the UK is that we've tried the Brexit/hostile approach to immigration and still have record numbers coming here, legally and otherwise.
Edit: Tadcaster viaduct:
https://www.nationaltransporttrust.org.uk/heritage-sites/heritage-detail/tadcaster-viaduct
And so rebels announce they have sent in letters this morning
Time to end this charade but I still expect a November GE as Sunak would easily win a vonc
With the trade balance being positive in 2020 and almost so in 2021 when travel restrictions were in force.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/ikbj/mret
A wider problem is that the UK has sold off so many of its assets that there's now a big deficit on investment income.
So we would have to run a trade surplus for many years merely to get back to an overall current account balance.
Rachel Reeves hints at Labour tax cuts for top earners
Shadow chancellor seeks to recast party as the champion of growth
Rachel Reeves has hinted at tax cuts for top earners as the shadow chancellor attempts to recast Labour as the party of economic growth.
Ms Reeves vowed to ensure “success is celebrated” under a Labour government as she outlined ambitions to ease the burden of Rishi Sunak’s multi-year stealth tax raid on workers.
Speaking to The Telegraph at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, she said that lowering taxes on “working people” remains a priority, including those paying the highest 45p rate.
Ms Reeves said that freezing income tax thresholds in the face of rising inflation “has affected people paying the top rate of tax and the basic rate of tax, and both of those groups of people are working hard, but getting less every month in their pay packets.”
She added: “My instinct is to have lower taxes.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/17/rachel-reeves-hints-at-labour-tax-cuts-for-top-earners/
The Met Office warns the UK will be double-fisted by deadly snow and ice
https://x.com/metrouk/status/1747902772941299884?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
I've often thought that Hudson and his wife would make for a great TV drama. That, and possibly Peto as well - an MP, a baronet; a self-made man who helped build the world (and was the world's biggest employer), who died penniless and in obscurity.
Nowadays, the mighty don't seem to fall as they once did. Hudson because he was a fraudster; Peto mainly though bad luck. There's f-all chance of Musky-baby falling in the same way.
Now there are local circumstances - the school has just added a third form to each year, so to fill up is currently taking in anyone new who arrives in Sale, not just the square mile or so surrounding the school. And also we get a lot of Hong Kong Chinese in Sale - these are undeniably immigrants but (along with Ukrainians) no-one but the hardest of hardline against immigration tend to complain about immigration from HK. But still - the number of nationalities and languages represented at a school where five years ago English as a first language was near-universal and the most exotic pupils were Canadian is quite startling.
TV drama - Trollope's The Way We Live Now (BBC) was effectively the Hudson story, I suppose. Or apparently perhaps not, on checking: https://outlook.office.com/mail/inbox/id/AAMkADE1MWVkMTkzLWRkYTgtNDQ3MS1hMzE5LWJlNzUxMzZiNTZiOQBGAAAAAAD1Seg0PxivQJJrXKQsTN3mBwAchydVBnbaRb8Jyi6AtDJqAD3HIKcJAABJOoTtfZ1fQJv1hAlN30oKAAZEe3LZAAA=
Biden has ‘deep respect’ for Hutchinson, said White House press secretary
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/17/white-house-called-hutchinson-to-apologize-for-dnc-remarks-00136165
..The Democratic National Committee initially responded by calling his withdrawal “a shock to those of us who could’ve sworn he had already dropped out.” The statement drew immediate backlash from people who said it was a gratuitous attempt to humiliate Hutchinson.
Zients’ call to Hutchinson effectively marked a repudiation of the DNC — and a particularly swift clean-up job by the White House.
The chief of staff’s damage-control effort reflects the central importance of anti-Trump Republicans in the 2024 campaign.
The Biden reelection operation has identified those Republicans as a core constituency. Though Hutchinson is a conservative, his firm rejection of the former president has set him apart from the vast majority of Republicans. The former governor has said he will not vote for Trump if Trump is convicted in one of his current federal or state trials.
White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre, when asked about the exchange during Wednesday’s press briefing, said President Joe Biden has a “deep respect” for the governor and “admires the race he ran.”
“The president knows him to be a man of principle who cares about our country and has a strong record of public service,” Jean-Pierre said. “This morning, the chief of staff here, Jeff Zients, called the governor to convey this and apologized for the statement that did not represent the president’s views.”
In an interview later in the day on CNN, Hutchinson said he was “grateful” that Zients reached out to him.
“He took his time away and he apologized,” he said. “It meant a lot to me and to me that reflects the good parts of American politics. You fight hard, but at the end of the day you want to make sure you treat each other with respect. I appreciated the call.”..
Up until the late 1980s economic concepts such as the BoP were a regular fixture of political discourse. It informed so much of the UK's approach not only to its relationship with the EEC/EU but also with countries such as the US.
It was also the prism through which many countries (notably the US and Canada) viewed the nascent economic threat of the EEC in the 1960s. My first PhD examined how the Kennedy administration responded to the EEC with the creation of the Trade Expansion Act in 1962; it used a complex series of tariffs and barriers to protect domestic industries and rebalance its payments deficit. If you can find a copy, I'd recommend Thomas Zeiler's "American Trade and Power in the 1960s" as a starting point.
Even us sex toy flint-knappers will face the techno-axe, eventually
#SkiingHolidayMemories
There would be only two or three household names left, which would be interesting. Williamson. Tugendhat. Nokes. Zahawi.
Secondly, and this must be impossible, you would be able to drive from Land's End to Berwick through Labour territory. (Just as you always could through Tory territory, even in tough times for the Tories).
Maybe my prediction of NOM is looking a bit shaky.
"Nevertheless a certain class of dishonesty, dishonesty magnificent in its proportions, and climbing into high places, has become at the same time so rampant and so splendid that there seems to be reason for fearing that men and women will be taught to feel that dishonesty, if it can become splendid, will cease to be abominable. If dishonesty can live in a gorgeous palace with pictures on all its walls, and gems in all its cupboards, with marble and ivory in all its corners, and can give Apician dinners, and get into Parliament, and deal in millions, then dishonesty is not disgraceful, and the man dishonest after such a fashion is not a low scoundrel. "
Times haven't changed. Except now, perhaps, the dishonest man is now lauded.
This country has imported 1.3 million people in two years. Voters are noticing. See @Cookie’s comments above
This level of immigration is literally unprecedented in our history. It has never happened before. People didn’t ask for it, polls show they don’t want it, Brexit was driven - in large part - by people trying to stop it
And your pitiful answer to all this is “just stop talking about it”
For avoidance of doubt, my version is "Immigration is fine. We need to build 8 million more homes to catch up. And build one bedroom per person of net immigration. Forever. And if this upsets you, I am extremely happy."
@premnsikka
Fixing Fujitsu software bugs in the Horizon IT system was too expensive. Flaws known since 1998. Fujitsu and Post Office gave false evidence to courts and let innocent people be convicted of fraud. Boosted profits and exec pay by destroying lives."
https://twitter.com/premnsikka/status/1747919174003798379
The NHS is overwhelmed
Our rivers are full of shit as the sewage system can’t cope
We have a national housing shortage crisis
And so on, and so forth
And yet at the same time we are told this has nothing to do with mass immigration and the population of the UK rising by 1.3 million people in just two years. Even the dumbest voter no longer buys this bollocks
Starmer is heading into no 10 by the year end at the latest but his majority will be determined by just how many of the Reform UK and D/Ks who vote conservative when faced with the actual ballot paper
Firstly, for Trump supporters, their support is all around identity. This article gets it right:
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/17/opinions/trump-cultural-phenomenon-too-zelizer/index.html
HIs support is, as the article notes, akin to the feelings people have for their favourite sports team or even singer (try and criticise Taylor Swift and see the wrath you get from the Swifties for example). Telling them they are thick, which many US commentators and many on here like to do when they sneer just has the opposite effect - it reinforces their support.
Then you have the point that - for many people - Trump also got it right on many of his actions and views (which is my view as well). This is Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan making this point yesterday.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/17/business/jamie-dimon-trump-maga?ref=upstract.com
Now, on his court cases, you may be right but I think you are wrong (and I am surprised that DavidL, as a legal practitioner, stated as a fact Trump was guilty of sexual assault given that was a civil trial, not a judicial one).
1. On his NY property lawsuit case, as @Dura_Ace said, he will just appeal. In any event, even as the FT has said (https://on.ft.com/3Q5IFGa), Trump's basic point that valuation is an art not a science is right. There is a good chance a judge at least at one level will accept that argument. There is also not the small issue that ruling that a valuation is potentially liable to be deemed fraudulent has major implications for the US financial industry.
2. On his defamation case, again he will just appeal and kick it into touch. The logic of the Manhattan jury was, in any event, bizarre - they convicted him of everything else bar the rape charge (i.e. we believe Jean Carroll in everything she says except we think - even on a balance of probability - she wasn't telling the truth about the rape charge).
3. On the criminal charges, the documents case in FLorida will get delayed post-the election. The Georgia case, as I highlighted a few days back, is blowing up in spectacular fashion as the DA now faces a potential criminal investigation for not disclosing she hired her (alleged) lover as a special prosecutor even though he had no experience. And Jack Smith, in the Washington DC case, is not doing well in trying to get the trial expedited.
The Democrats - and those who hate Trump - will do well to focus their energies and attention of working out how to defeat him at the ballot box instead of increasing looking, to more parts of the population, that they are trying anything and everything to get Trump out of the contest.
Boiler's decided now is a good time to start dripping water. *sighs*
Why does immigration being a genuine issue mean people should be able to bang on unchallenged about how we have to embrace far right talking points or they'll end up in power?
The political elite seems incapable of grasping the challenge posed by legal and illegal immigration
Allister Heath"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/17/mass-migration-about-sweep-away-wests-ruling-class
If you have a growing population, then you need more stuff. Because everyone needs a share.
Hansard:
8.52pm
Dr Thérèse Coffey
(Suffolk Coastal) (Con)
It is important to speak in this debate. I have to say, I was somewhat astonished by the speech of the shadow Home Secretary, who cannot even get the name of the country right, talking about the Kigali Government when we are talking about Rwanda—a respected country that has recently been president of the Commonwealth.
There's absolutely nothing wrong whatsoever with immigration, so long as we have sufficient investment to keep up with population growth.
The problem is when we have rising population and no investment.
@{The East Midlands Serious Crime Squad has entered the chat, beaten a confession out of @kinabalu and robbed a couple of banks}
While I dislike the dripping, it is less horrendous (for now...) than when I went downstairs one morning last year and found the kitchen countertops soaking wet, with the water an inch or so from going onto the floor... that was less than splendid.
I know one of the companies selling IC design software as a service (with a multi-billion revenue) has a rather busy fraud department. Because other multi-billion dollar companies can't be ar*ed paying...
One. We already have a hugely multi ethnic/multi cultural community and a population which has grown by millions in a couple of decades, and 4 million in 10 years.
Two. Housing crisis
Three. Huge reliance in HE sector (students - HE sector goes bankrupt without them), NHS, service sector, and many others including agriculture and food on migration.
Four. Our birthrate has recently fallen fast.
In Germany (! of all places) a discussion is already turning at the far extremes to mass deportations. The right wing AfD is careful to separate itself from such talk.
The problem is identifying and implementing a policy which isn't a fascist one but delivers what Matt Goodwin keeps telling us most people want. What does it do? What does it look like?
Meanwhile, the government more or less ignores the large scale of legal migration to focus on the poor buggers trying to cross the Channel in this freezing weather, who constitute a small proportion of incomers. You couldn't make it up.
How many is too many then? 2 million a year? 5 million? Or is fhere no limit in your eyes, and all immigration of any levels is good and fine?
The logic goes:
1 - Voters are really concerned about such really quite large and noticeable numbers of immigration. (Almost always they won't have an issue with individual immigrants, but they don't want to import quite so many people, for many reasons e.g. impact on housing, impact on their kids schools.)
2 - Most parties either refuse to talk about immigration or talk about it but don't actually do anything about it.
3 - The only parties which appear to care about the issue are far right ones.
4 - Therefore people vote far right.
Most people aren't particularly far right in any sense. But most people don't see the risk of inflaming far right sentiment as a worse bogey than all others. If the far right are the only parties who will address the issue they care about, people will vote for them.
Step 3 doesn't always go that way. There is that far left party in Germany which is also against immigration. And people are voting for that party too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-68006001
Essentially, Ethiopia wants a port. It's landlocked, despite having a large population, and this means fees charged by Dijibouti[sp] for handling the imports/exports by sea are very costly. Recognition of Somaliland in return for leasing a port would be an interesting move, but obviously Somalia's less than delighted.
Another possibility I've heard, not in this article, is a potential invasion of Eritrea to reclaim coastal territories (and ports) previously part of Ethiopia.
I’m not sure there is an agreeable answer; in some countries the problem will culminate with civil strife and actual fascism