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Rwandan discussions – politicalbetting.com
Rwandan discussions – politicalbetting.com
Britons' preferences for the Rwanda policyAll BritonsKeep as is: 20%Adapt to something similar: 17%Scrap altogether: 40%2019 Con votersKeep as is: 37%Adapt to something similar: 26%Scrap altogether: 20%https://t.co/bNWfox3YXu pic.twitter.com/Pk2SdOxZEj
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Edit: and first.
Iran's acting like the drunken, violent fool outside a pub, swinging punches at anyone coming out the door whilst shouting "Come here and have a go if you think you're 'ard enough!" Trying to close the Red Sea via their Houthi puppets; striking Iraq; striking Pakistan; giving weapons to Russia.
Unusually, for a country where alcohol is verboten.
Banning things that are relatively easy to make, almost always results in people making it anyway. Even in Saudi there’s discussions about whether or not their new Neom resorts are going to be licenced, and they’ve already opened cinemas, theatres, and are spending a lot of money on sporting events.
They’re trying to attract tourists, and at the moment a significant number of their locals escape every weekend to neighbouring countries with more liberal policies towards entertainment.
Another huge problem in the Middle East is an amphetamine called Captagon, produced unofficially by Syria and distributed around the region.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-64091223
Probable caws.
- Is he a safe pair of hands getting the economy under control and investing for the future? Binning long-term infrastructure projects to help finance pre-election tax cuts (despite a big deficit) doesn't suggest so.
- Are we voting for a change or continuity candidate from recent Tory governments? If the latter the 'change' offered feels very familiar.
- Is he on the populist right or not? The Rwanda policy suggests yes, as does defining himself to be tall by law (or was that Rwanda is a safe country?). But will he be willing to go far enough to force this through the Lords and the Supreme Court such that anyone actually goes to Rwanda before the next election? I expect not, and his failure (on his own terms) here has led to Reform growing in the polls.
It's like the reverse Boris 2019 plan. He was able to hold onto the blue wall while appealing beyond the Tory natural base. Sunak is on track to alienate the blue wall while failing to convince the types of voters Boris won over.
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1747812948624474597
Jacob Rees-Mogg, "I hope it will work"
VD, "Of course you do, but you just explained why you think it won't work"
https://twitter.com/i/status/1747764338335609019
(90-second video clip in tweet)
It is important to speak in this debate. I have to say, I was somewhat astonished by the speech of the shadow Home Secretary, who cannot even get the name of the country right, talking about the Kigali Government when we are talking about Rwanda—a respected country that has recently been president of the Commonwealth.
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2024-01-17/debates/87C04B7F-2159-4F09-8825-3FC68BE13256/SafetyOfRwanda(AsylumAndImmigration)Bill#contribution-925F7917-8561-4076-9627-C44126D13724
He’s not very good at politics
Unbelievably to us, as it blends theocracy, authoritarianism and totalitarianism, it remains massively popular- for reasons I cannot fathom.
11% would vote Biden.
Also, 31% think he is not fit to be the candidate if convicted of a felony.
These are awful numbers for Trump. Plenty of Republicans won't vote MAGA.
Having said that, there are some very brave protestors, often female, who do protest. Often with very serious consequences for them and their families.
It's also the way Russia is heading. Oh, for those fools on the left who think the Houthis, Iran, or Russia are in any way on the 'good' side of this...
Can someone explain to me....seriously?
I've said for ages Sunak should spin the argument 180 degrees and say it is a tribute to the UK and Brexit that so many people want to flee France and live here.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68014882
The Tories have fallen to their lowest level of support since Liz Truss was prime minister, Yougov poll for Times finds
Support for Tories has fallen to 20%, a level not seen since October 2022 just before Truss was forced from office
Labour has a 27 point lead
Just 35% of 2019 Tory voters trust Sunak on migration, compared to 54% who trust Nigel Farage
Labour: 47% (+2)
Conservatives: 20% (-2)
Lib Dems: 8% (-1)
Reform: 12% (+4)
Green: 7% (-1)
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1747750905552724159
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/jan/17/opioids-sedatives-online-deadly-fakes-nitazenes
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/the-tories-are-right-we-should-stop-the-boats-just-not-the-ones-they-re-talking-about/ar-AA1n9Vt0?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=4503510756ab4933911e79290fe07a9f&ei=16
Everyone knows the capital of Rwanda is R.
As I understand it, Sunak is to hold a triumphantist presser today in Downing Street. This is silly. The bill has now gone to the Lords. Who will gut it, put the remains in a pretty box and send it back to the Commons, at which point we go through the whole rigmarole again as the government tries to overturn the Lords amendments and rebels can mess with them.
There is a serious public expectation issue here. STOP THE BOATS was absolutist and the government cannot deliver. And now they are desperately trying to pretend they have got this new Sky Is Green bill though. Which will only leave their remaining voters even more angry when they look up and see it is still blue.
What else have they got? Brexit's shit. The economy's shit. Public services are shit. They're shit.
She has certainly improved markedly since her five live days, of a decade or so back, of just hectoring and talking over people.
Some of those are an aggressive authoritarian regime bidding to be a dominant regional power; the others are a response to the big terrorist bombing. Not a rational response, since they've no good idea who was responsible - but as we know, even western democracies can sometimes respond irrationally to that.
So in order to shore up the support of this dwindling group with a feeble grasp of politics, and reality generally, the Party is adopting a policy that alienates everyone else and is neither cost effective, legal, practical or likely to achieve its aim in the unlikely event that it ever gets on the statute book in its proposed form.
There is however one consolation.
At 254, I have the highest figure for Labour's Majority in the PB Prediction Competion.
I think it's a winner.
'VD is amazing as always.'
Pretty unpleasant in my experience, but whatever grabs you.
Seriously.
What would a Farage government (no joking matter) be able to do that the Conservatives can't?
And whilst ECHR is how a current roadblock manifests itself, removing it won't make the scheme work.
Competence would have been nice, for a change.
I know speakers aren't so strict about procedure these days but I'd have thought Suella would know a bit more about it. She said to the Scot Nat " Do you want to say something?" not does " ...wish to intervene?" and then addressed him directly "you". Perhaps she was just over excited.
Then there was some rather excitable Tory who said thank you for giving way at the end of an intervention on him. No, it was you who gave way....
And then "Freddy" Kruger....All rather scary.
From Saudi to Amsterdam, where getting stoned means two completely different things.
Edit gets worse for Jordan.
Jordan Henderson has not yet earned a penny from his short time in Saudi Arabia having deferred salary payments, Telegraph Sport has learnt.
Former Liverpool midfielder Henderson has travelled to Europe to complete a move to Ajax having agreed with the Saudi Pro League club Al-Ettifaq a mutual cancellation of the three-year contract he signed in the summer.
Henderson’s U-turn is set to cost him millions and Telegraph Sport can now reveal that he has left Saudi without earning any of his £350,000-a-week wages to date, with sources close to the player believing he may never be paid for the six months he spent at Al-Ettifaq.
The key reason for the deferral is not entirely clear, but Telegraph Sport understands that it was in part so that he could return to Britain to play for England in the short term, unrestricted by the time limitations placed on those without UK taxpayer status.
Under UK law, an individual is considered resident for tax purposes if they spend more than 90 days in the country.
Henderson is understood to have been advised that up to the end of last year, pro rata he must have spent no more than 21 days in Britain if he wished to be considered non-resident for tax reasons. That limitation in spending time in Britain was the key part of his initial decision to defer any salary payments. Returning to Britain with his young family to visit friends and relatives was also part of the consideration.
As a result, Henderson had not been paid any of the £350,000-per-week salary that he agreed in July. Now that he is leaving Saudi after just six months, it is quite possible that he never will. Sources close to the player say that the expectation is that he will not be paid for the six months he spent in the Saudi Pro League.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/01/17/jordan-henderson-salary-saudi-al-ettifaq-uk-tax/
Sunak does have his pick of wars he can get involved in to reset the electoral chess board. The SMO hasn't panned out the way anybody on either side hoped. Israel/Gaza has gone a bit genocide-y. The Hooties don't seem to give a fuck if you bomb them or not. Venezuela/Equatorial Guinea is just a harsh words from Shappsie and a single patrol boat sort of thing. But Pakistan/Iran, now that has some promise.
So still pretty poor numbers for Trump.
But the turnout was low - and even acknowledging the weather was horrific, the enthusiasm for Trump was not overwhelming.
The game is over for Trump if he gets a conviction as a felon before November. Interesting to see how many still peel away next month when he's clearly a fraudster in a civil case that awards the state of New York hundreds of millions in disgorgement for cooking the books. When found guilty of fraud, is the civil/criminal distinction going to be that important?
Every reference by the Democrats to Trump is going to be preceded by "fraudster".
It’s 2024 FFS. You can be polite and have debates without using archaic constructions. And lose the baying.
By the time he got to the bottom he was practically running.
I think Hunt has done pretty well as Chancellor, within the boundaries set by his boss. It is Sunak who has really disappointed. The guy is genuinely bright, has a very successful career in financial services behind him and he really just doesn't seem to get it. The HS2 decision was a terrible decision for large swathes of the country. The logistics of getting around this relatively small country of ours, both for individuals and goods, are truly terrible and an inhibition of growth.
Hunt did some good work on encouraging investment in the budget but he could and should have gone further, even at the cost of the NI cuts. No one is talking about the balance of payments. It is critical to our future standard of living and it is simply not being addressed. We need to encourage more training. There is so much to do to get this country back on the road that someone with a reasonable grounding in economics and finance should have appreciated. I'm disappointed.
And as for this Rwanda nonsense....
Be the end for de Santis regardless. Who will drop out and endorse Trump. So it will be a two-horse race after New Hampshire. Can Haley go into the next tranche of primaries with any meaningful momentum? Well, she is going to have the boost of Trump fined tens of millions for defaming a woman he has been adjudged to have raped - and the boost of Trump having his NY business dismantled for serial fraud and losing hundreds of millions of his primary assets. These stories are going to be huge in the media.
It’s Venezuela versus Guyana, not Equatorial Guinea. The border between Venezuela, and Equatorial Guinea is the Atlantic Ocean!
Instead of quietly allowing the idea die once the tactical goodness had been extracted from it, the Tories have become fully invested in a clear nonsense.
Recently twin B read my dad's MSC thesis which coming from the early 70s was hand typed by my mum multiple times
Mum cheerily announced there were no typos in it as no one had ever seen one. Guess what twin B found within 2 seconds of that statement
Not only are you giving the finger to the Chancellor, Big Oil and saving the planet. But you are brining forward the day that the mullahs in Iran have to learn about a real economy, not one based on the Devils Piss.
Having invested so much anger in the issue, it is all but impossible to let the scheme die in unlamented death.
For awhile now, maybe since 2019, the Conservatives have been doing politics as if they were in opposition.
The trouble is, they've been in government.
The trouble goes back a long way though. John Major was one of my favorite PMs. He's have done a lot better if he'd had the Party behind him. Ken Clarke was a fine PM we never had.
What's wrong with these guys? Yeah,I know Labour picked Corbyn but that was a one off. The Tory Party is a serial offender.
Can you think of any politician in this country whose career would survive a finding that he had sexually assaulted a woman? Or that he was guilty of large scale fraud (that has already been determined, the court in the present case is simply determining the penalties), or that he was guilty or insurrection and therefore not eligible for office?
For his supporters, these findings are simply evidence that the liberal establishment are out to get their man by fair means or foul. And, sadly, there is the smallest whiff of truth in that. The hope has to be that the independents vote for not Trump in sufficient numbers to defeat him. Again. But so far the polling is alarming.
Jacking up the taxes on productive working people in order to lower those on those who aren't working is the polar opposite of good economic management.
The US media has been playing Trump's game for years, as controversy is good fur their business.
'Fraudster and rapist Donald Trump" should be appearing regularly in headlines - and has the additional merit of being closer to the truth than anything he says.
But the main thing is the dismal short termism, of which canning HS2 is only the most extreme example.
Is it his City background- let's extract the last drops of juice from this lemon before we ditch it? Or panic at the terrible polls?
We all assume there will be high profile tax cuts (or attenuation of increases) in March. Setting aside that nobody likes paying more tax than necessary, is there any sign that public finances are in a position where tax cuts should be on the agenda?
I'm told multiple letters of no confidence in the prime minister went in yesterday. Rebel MPs were unhappy about the way the vote was handled by the PM being seen as a final straw. Some had held back from putting theirs in, in December.
https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1747888008487932137
When I was young, there were whole hour-long programmes about it, with a twenty-minute explainer documentary followed by a long-form interview with Brian Walden pressing some top politician as to what they were going to do about the balance of payments.
Nowadays it isn't even reported, or at least not anywhere prominently, and doesn't feature in political discourse at all.