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The inevitable result of having an insurrectionist controlling the GOP? – politicalbetting.com

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    edited January 2024

    I wonder whether Fujitsu winning contracts is down to the UK business being a creation of the government in the first place?

    I know it is a long time since Tony Benn et al but it was basically the company of choice for government systems at that time.

    The civil service has a long memory.
    The attraction of taking over ICL was that the latter was basically HMG’s computer company

    A little factoid that hasn’t been much noticed is that the head of Fujitsu UK during much of the relevant period is the husband of the Education Minister.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,247
    IanB2 said:

    That’s very evident from the evidence to the inquiry from Miller, Sweetman and Roberts. Compare and contrast.

    The problem the inquiry has is that people who have worked their way up to senior management rarely take strong positions and have expertise in the politics of compromise such that their real views rarely get set down anywhere as written evidence; all of them are constantly adjusting for what (they think) those around them think, and things are decided not in formal set piece meetings but in informal unrecorded chats. Coupled with their hazy recollections, and some probable deliberate amnesia, and they’re probably going to have to blame them all. Which will mean that any meaningful penalties will be corporate rather than individual.
    John Tuld : Maybe you could tell me what is going on. And please, speak as you might to a young child. Or a golden retriever. It wasn't brains that brought me here; I assure you that.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,655

    Gentleman would have offered to assist. Did you?
    Sadly, being a geek, I was too busy adjusting the lights.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,950
    edited January 2024
    IanB2 said:

    The attraction of taking over ICL was that the latter was basically HMG’s computer company

    A little factoid that hasn’t been much noticed is that the head of Fujitsu UK during much of the relevant period is the husband of the Education Minister.
    Sorry. I've accidentally flagged you.
    Just wondering. Which one of the dozens of Education Ministers during the relevant period that would be?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    viewcode said:

    Good for him (Boris Johnson). Bojo made many mistakes but on Ukraine his behaviour was correct.
    I doubt Sunak, or Starmer for that matter, would have done the same. The safer option would have been to hide behind the consensus that it was a lost cause.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,929
    dixiedean said:

    Sorry. I've accidentally flagged you.
    Just wondering. Which one of the dozens of Education Ministers during the relevant period that would be?
    The current one.
  • Biden disapproval rating at +15% latest YouGov poll for Economist.

    He's got a hell of a job turning this around in less than twelve months.

    He doesn't need to turn it around, he just needs Trump's ratings to be worse. Trump is at 9%, so the swing required to get to "positive territory" is 3% not 7.5%. You also need to factor in the number of people who are saying disapprove because Biden isn't left-wing enough but the majority of whom will suck it up when the only realistic alternative is Trump.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    St Keir condemned by his own words. If really is Mr Integrity, he has to carry the can for the prosecutions of postmasters by the CPS on his watch

    “I had 8,000 staff for five years as DPP.

    I acted in the right way with them, which is when they had victories I celebrated victories on their behalf, I picked up awards on their behalves.

    When they made mistakes, I carried the can."

    https://x.com/archrose90/status/1745204605338665176?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349

    You must have a long list of the guilty which is fair enough. But where do you place disgraced former Prime Minister Boris Johnson who allowed his Chancellor to significantly delay payments to the sub-Postmasters? Oh and who as Prime Minister allowed Fujitsu billions of pounds of Government IT contracts post scandal?
    I thought he set up the inquiry. But he’s out of politics now, it doesn’t really matter what he said or did, there won’t be any consequences for him
  • isam said:

    St Keir condemned by his own words. If really is Mr Integrity, he has to carry the can for the prosecutions of postmasters by the CPS on his watch

    “I had 8,000 staff for five years as DPP.

    I acted in the right way with them, which is when they had victories I celebrated victories on their behalf, I picked up awards on their behalves.

    When they made mistakes, I carried the can."

    https://x.com/archrose90/status/1745204605338665176?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    What was the mistake? They got convictions which means the cases were correctly prosecuted based on the evidence available.

  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    isam said:

    St Keir condemned by his own words. If really is Mr Integrity, he has to carry the can for the prosecutions of postmasters by the CPS on his watch

    “I had 8,000 staff for five years as DPP.

    I acted in the right way with them, which is when they had victories I celebrated victories on their behalf, I picked up awards on their behalves.

    When they made mistakes, I carried the can."

    https://x.com/archrose90/status/1745204605338665176?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You really are obsessed. Like. Weirdly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    viewcode said:

    Good for him (Boris Johnson). Bojo made many mistakes but on Ukraine his behaviour was correct.
    Would that that spirit was still continuing.

    Much of the supporting coalition has turned decidedly lukewarm in the face of, in particular, american paralysis. Yes, maintaining longer term support was always going to be difficult, but it seems fewer and fewer nations care with each passing day - like 2014 it is becoming the new normal, and they will decide to call it quits sooner or later.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Scott_xP said:

    @HuffPost

    JUST IN: Chris Christie Is Dropping Out Of 2024 GOP Presidential Race

    Fun while it lasted, though since he says he won't vote for Biden there are some things he won't do to stop Trump.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    ohnotnow said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67932247

    HS2 to Birmingham may cost £65bn, railway boss says

    The London to Birmingham stretch of the HS2 railway could cost more than £65bn in current prices, the boss of the company building it has said.

    Sir Jonathan Thompson said a rise in the cost of materials such as concrete and steel over the past few years have added £8bn to £10bn.

    In October the government cancelled the sections between the West Midlands, Manchester, and the East Midlands.

    Now HS2 Ltd and the government disagree on the cost of building the rest.

    Will it even happen? I feel like I should tell the government I could do it for half the amount, fail to deliver, and the country would therefore save a huge amount for the same outcome.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349

    What was the mistake? They got convictions which means the cases were correctly prosecuted based on the evidence available.

    Had Sir Keir decided the cases shouldn’t have been prosecuted, possibly because Alan Bates setting up his alliance, or the stories coming out about the faulty software, the letters to Sir Ed Davey, we would be hailing his wisdom.

    The way you are framing it, the only way the CPS could really make a mistake is if people were found not guilty after they’d recommended prosecution

  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    dixiedean said:

    The mistake was being the leader of the Labour Party.
    Even worse. Being streets ahead in the polls as Tory bollocks collapses under the weight of its own bullshit.
    No the mistake, if we are talking about why I think he is a total snide, is blocking any chance of a deal with the EU, then heading up the campaign for a second referendum having been elected on it being ‘a point of principle’ to accept & implement the result
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349

    You really are obsessed. Like. Weirdly.
    Hey!!! Great to hear from you! How’s the MH? Good I hope xxxx
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    isam said:

    Hey!!! Great to hear from you! How’s the MH? Good I hope xxxx
    I'm very well thanks. As I said when I pushed to have you re-instated on this forum, I am glad you'e able to post your absolute nonsense freely.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    Great!! Thanks x
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    isam said:

    Great!! Thanks x

    Stay well mate, hope your hangover isn't too bad tomorrow.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    Brilliant! Lovely cheers 😊😊😊
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297
    Scott_xP said:

    @HuffPost

    JUST IN: Chris Christie Is Dropping Out Of 2024 GOP Presidential Race

    Who's he endorsing?
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Andy_JS said:

    Who's he endorsing?
    Trump
  • Andy_JS said:

    Who's he endorsing?
    Himself. As per usual.
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Good evening. See you all soon :)
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    kle4 said:

    Will it even happen? I feel like I should tell the government I could do it for half the amount, fail to deliver, and the country would therefore save a huge amount for the same outcome.
    As I have been saying for a long time on here now, let's just scrap it. Please. Yes I know a lot of money has been spent but we can save much more by just cancelling it.

    Goodnight 👍
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339
    edited January 2024
    isam said:

    Hey!!! Great to hear from you! How’s the MH? Good I hope xxxx
    Chiding someone who has shared their mental health issues, and with a snarky mental health comment. Classy.
  • kle4 said:

    Fun while it lasted, though since he says he won't vote for Biden there are some things he won't do to stop Trump.
    Kept trying to tell you PBers that Chris Christie is a MASSIVE waste of space. Ditto time.
  • As I have been saying for a long time on here now, let's just scrap it. Please. Yes I know a lot of money has been spent but we can save much more by just cancelling it.

    Goodnight 👍
    I vote for scrapping it, then re-commissioning it in 2028, scrapping it in 2034, and re-commission it in 2038 as thats probably close to what HMG will do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Kept trying to tell you PBers that Chris Christie is a MASSIVE waste of space. Ditto time.
    Never thought it would amount to anything. It was just nice to see someone calling Trump out, given the others are too afraid to do so, even when he attacks them, because they still have hopes of having careers in future.
  • kle4 said:

    Pheidippides died after running the very first one, if that's not a red flag I don't know what is.
    Wasn't that tragedy result of Pheidippides skipping the last power-bar stop before Athens?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    edited January 2024

    Chiding someone who has shared their mental health issues, and with a snarky mental health comment. Classy.
    I only asked how they were

    Someone with genuine MH issues, esp if they’ve recovered, would be reluctant to use phrases like ‘weirdly obsessed’ about others. I take that to be a dig at my own MH
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    kle4 said:

    Never thought it would amount to anything. It was just nice to see someone calling Trump out, given the others are too afraid to do so, even when he attacks them, because they still have hopes of having careers in future.
    His pre-Governor career as a prosecutor means he is worth listening to when he says Trump is doing jail time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    Kept trying to tell you PBers that Chris Christie is a MASSIVE waste of space. Ditto time.
    How very body-shaming of you!
  • Seattle Times - Judge says Donald Trump won’t give own closing argument at civil fraud trial after disputing rules

    SSI - Translation: Donald Trump chickens out again yet again in yet another court case.

    Don't know about y'all but on my humble YouTube feed, a LOT of vis about "Sovereign Citizens" (a thing in the USA today) and the like "disputing" in front of judges in courts from El Lay to Frostbite Falls. With SVs getting the short end of the stick, in courts of law AND public opinion.

    Interesting (perhaps) does NOT appear to be ideological divide let alone polarization regarding these folks, who in 99.46% of instances come off as crazed, conniving, or both.

    Two thoughts:

    1. Doesn't this sound just like the behavior of Donald J. Trump?; and

    2. When, if ever, will significant share of Trump's support - and also undecided & swing voters - draw the same conclusion, and scratch him from their dance card?

    3. Extra bonus third though: Biden right now is a minus for too many of the voters he needs for reelection, which is limiting factor on #2 above; whereas improvement in Biden's job rating, etc. could increase contrast AND impact of #1.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,297
    This sounds scary.

    "Sweden is warned to 'brace for war': Civil Defence minister tells citizens to 'get moving' and prepare for the end of 210 years of peace as country bids to join NATO in face of Russia tensions"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12946939/Sweden-warned-brace-war-Civil-Defence-minister-tells-citizens-moving-prepare-end-210-years-peace-country-bids-join-NATO-face-Russia-tensions.html
  • How very body-shaming of you!
    It's OK for TSE et al to make short jokes? But wrong for me to make fat jokes, about a fellow fat person?

    Have you no shame?!?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    If a sub-postmaster or mistress was prosecuted and convicted it’s because a jury believed they were guilty beyond all reasonable doubt. They believed that because the evidence was fabricated and/or alibis were suppressed by the Post Office. That’s the issue with the convictions. They were based on lies.

    The real issue with the convictions is that they were based on a non-existent crime. There was no evidence that any money was missing at all. Just a figure from Horizon which was, frankly, plucked out of Horizon's arse.

    That was the fundamental lie.

    All the other lies were in support of this.

    That there was no crime is how, I think - but will need to do some more thinking on this overnight - the concerns about Parliament overriding the courts will have to be addressed.

    I may write some more about this but only once - and if - I've clarified my thoughts.
  • His pre-Governor career as a prosecutor means he is worth listening to when he says Trump is doing jail time.
    What are views on this legal point by Chris Christie's fellow former US District Attorney, Rudy Giuliani?

    You do have a point, however.

    Though personally, for legal advice will stick with old, trusted family firm - Dewey, Cheatam & Howe.
  • Cyclefree said:

    The real issue with the convictions is that they were based on a non-existent crime. There was no evidence that any money was missing at all. Just a figure from Horizon which was, frankly, plucked out of Horizon's arse.

    That was the fundamental lie.

    All the other lies were in support of this.

    That there was no crime is how, I think - but will need to do some more thinking on this overnight - the concerns about Parliament overriding the courts will have to be addressed.

    I may write some more about this but only once - and if - I've clarified my thoughts.
    "Follow the money"
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,228

    Seattle Times - Judge says Donald Trump won’t give own closing argument at civil fraud trial after disputing rules

    SSI - Translation: Donald Trump chickens out again yet again in yet another court case.

    Don't know about y'all but on my humble YouTube feed, a LOT of vis about "Sovereign Citizens" (a thing in the USA today) and the like "disputing" in front of judges in courts from El Lay to Frostbite Falls. With SVs getting the short end of the stick, in courts of law AND public opinion.

    Interesting (perhaps) does NOT appear to be ideological divide let alone polarization regarding these folks, who in 99.46% of instances come off as crazed, conniving, or both.

    Two thoughts:

    1. Doesn't this sound just like the behavior of Donald J. Trump?; and

    2. When, if ever, will significant share of Trump's support - and also undecided & swing voters - draw the same conclusion, and scratch him from their dance card?

    3. Extra bonus third though: Biden right now is a minus for too many of the voters he needs for reelection, which is limiting factor on #2 above; whereas improvement in Biden's job rating, etc. could increase contrast AND impact of #1.

    We have Sovereign Citizens here, although they usually call themselves "Freemen of the Land"
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    The solicitor on the Seema Misra case, the lady in the show who had ECT and was sent to prison whilst pregnant, knew something was up with Horizon, and sat on it

    Some people say this case had CPS involvement

    https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/news/post-office-solicitor-knew-of-it-flaw-before-criminal-trial-inquiry-hears/5118219.article
  • Andy_JS said:

    I've been saying for years that we need to be more sceptical about technology, and the Horizon scandal is a good example of that.

    "Trust but verify" is maybe wisest thing Ronald Reagan ever said.
  • Cyclefree said:

    The real issue with the convictions is that they were based on a non-existent crime. There was no evidence that any money was missing at all. Just a figure from Horizon which was, frankly, plucked out of Horizon's arse.

    That was the fundamental lie.

    All the other lies were in support of this.

    That there was no crime is how, I think - but will need to do some more thinking on this overnight - the concerns about Parliament overriding the courts will have to be addressed.

    I may write some more about this but only once - and if - I've clarified my thoughts.
    Does it help the cause, that most of postmasters, etc. were charged, prosecuted and convicted under a legal theory that has proven to be a perversion of justice? Thus wholesale reason for broad remedy, including changes to statute law, to provide redress and also to prevent future miscarriages.

    Then courts focus on remaining evidence, issues, cases. And the Post Office get cracking on making things better instead of worser, for techies and posties.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860
    AfD MP promises to deport foreigners by the million from Germany.

    https://x.com/rene_springer/status/1745061387804512694
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,318
    Easy question: How many people on PB are real people?
    Hard question: How many people on Twix are real people?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Internet_theory
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,318
    edited January 2024
    For all those Bowie fans on PB, here's a hatchet job in the Spectator. The author does not like him. I think Bowie's rep will survive tho... :)

    https://archive.is/Vymj7
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,318
    edited January 2024
    [deleted]
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,779
    edited January 2024
    viewcode said:

    For all those Bowie fans on PB, here's a hatchet job in the Spectator. The author does not like him. I think Bowie's rep will survive tho... :)

    https://archive.is/Vymj7

    ….
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,779
    viewcode said:

    Easy question: How many people on PB are real people?
    Hard question: How many people on Twix are real people?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Internet_theory

    4.

    3 of them are @SeanT

    You are the 4th
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    dixiedean said:

    Sorry. I've accidentally flagged you.
    Just wondering. Which one of the dozens of Education Ministers during the relevant period that would be?
    No, the current one
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Andy_JS said:

    I've been saying for years that we need to be more sceptical about technology, and the Horizon scandal is a good example of that.

    Just because you were crap at Space Invaders….
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,331

    He doesn't need to turn it around, he just needs Trump's ratings to be worse. Trump is at 9%, so the swing required to get to "positive territory" is 3% not 7.5%. You also need to factor in the number of people who are saying disapprove because Biden isn't left-wing enough but the majority of whom will suck it up when the only realistic alternative is Trump.
    A year ago Biden was at - 9 and Trump at - 18, what has happened to reverse their positions? Is it the record number of illegal immigrants crossing the border with Mexico?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Andy_JS said:

    This sounds scary.

    "Sweden is warned to 'brace for war': Civil Defence minister tells citizens to 'get moving' and prepare for the end of 210 years of peace as country bids to join NATO in face of Russia tensions"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12946939/Sweden-warned-brace-war-Civil-Defence-minister-tells-citizens-moving-prepare-end-210-years-peace-country-bids-join-NATO-face-Russia-tensions.html

    The concerning issue for Sweden and Finland is the amount of migrants and what level of commitment they would have towards "civil defence", also in light of the effectiveness of Russian propaganda operations, for instance in relation to the Israel/Palestine conflict.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    darkage said:

    The concerning issue for Sweden and Finland is the amount of migrants and what level of commitment they would have towards "civil defence", also in light of the effectiveness of Russian propaganda operations, for instance in relation to the Israel/Palestine conflict.
    That was the problem the Roman Empire had by the end. Lots of people living in its borders with no allegiance to Rome or willingness to defend the institution.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    kamski said:

    A year ago Biden was at - 9 and Trump at - 18, what has happened to reverse their positions? Is it the record number of illegal immigrants crossing the border with Mexico?
    Trump benefits when he is out of the news. Also, people are struggling with high prices.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    WillG said:

    That was the problem the Roman Empire had by the end. Lots of people living in its borders with no allegiance to Rome or willingness to defend the institution.
    From the BBC on the same story...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67935464

    "Oscar Jonsson, a specialist from the Swedish Defence University, said that while war was a possibility, it would require several factors to fall into place: Russia's war in Ukraine coming to an end, its military having the time to rebuild and rearm its fighting force and for Europe to lose US military support...
    All of which were within the realms of possibility, he added."


    There is a strong strategic argument for the war in Ukraine to get de-escalated but essentially unresolved and still active, so Russia are bogged down, whilst the rest of Europe can restructure its own defences, build border walls, set up armies, prepare for the likely arrival of Trump 2 and attendant uncertainty etc. NATO cannot attack Russia to try and suck out its energy but it can attack it by proxy in Ukraine where it doesn't recognise the 'border'.

    I have had several discussions about this with people in Finland where the view set out above is not very welcome and regarded as weak. But I struggle to see the merit in going all out to reinstate the 2014 border. This seems to be based on some kind of punishment theory, that once 'beaten back' the Russians will not return. But I think this line of thinking runs in to the nuclear escalation problem which didn't exist in past conflicts with Russia (ie in the Winter War).

    In the end, isn't it the case that a smaller Ukraine, deprived of the large bulk of its Russian speaking population (and thus the pretext for Russian claims) would be a more coherant and defensible entity?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431
    darkage said:

    The concerning issue for Sweden and Finland is the amount of migrants and what level of commitment they would have towards "civil defence", also in light of the effectiveness of Russian propaganda operations, for instance in relation to the Israel/Palestine conflict.
    The same argument was made with regards to the US in both the first and second world wars.


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    So the Post Office were paying out bonuses to their investigations and prosecutions departments…

    “Post Office investigators were offered cash bonuses for every sub-postmaster convicted during the Horizon scandal, it has emerged.

    “Alan Bates, the sub-postmaster who led the campaign for justice, joined a deluge of criticism over the practice on Wednesday, saying offering financial incentives for prosecutions was “appalling” as he highlighted the “horrendous” culture of the Post Office.

    “Investigators with the Post Office described the incentive scheme as “part of the business”, with everyone in the security team “on a bonus”.

    “Gary Thomas, who worked in the Post Office security team between 2000 and 2012, told the Post Office Horizon inquiry that the bonus targets affected how he went about his work. Mr Thomas branded all sub-postmasters “crooks” in emails concerning one victim who was posthumously cleared. The messages were handed to the inquiry, which resumes on Thursday.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/10/post-office-executives-paid-bonuses-postmasters-conviction/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,431
    Sandpit said:

    In a word, no.

    Russia considers Ukraine to be Russian territory, any “solution” that fails to recognise the 1991 border gives the Russians breathing space to rearm and try again. So long as the Ukranians want to keep fighting - which they very much do - it’s in the rest of Europe’s self-interest to keep them fed with supplies of the best kit they can get their hands on.
    Quite: the idea that it is moral to remove support from someone who has been attacked is repugnant.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    darkage said:

    From the BBC on the same story...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67935464

    "Oscar Jonsson, a specialist from the Swedish Defence University, said that while war was a possibility, it would require several factors to fall into place: Russia's war in Ukraine coming to an end, its military having the time to rebuild and rearm its fighting force and for Europe to lose US military support...
    All of which were within the realms of possibility, he added."


    There is a strong strategic argument for the war in Ukraine to get de-escalated but essentially unresolved and still active, so Russia are bogged down, whilst the rest of Europe can restructure its own defences, build border walls, set up armies, prepare for the likely arrival of Trump 2 and attendant uncertainty etc. NATO cannot attack Russia to try and suck out its energy but it can attack it by proxy in Ukraine where it doesn't recognise the 'border'.

    I have had several discussions about this with people in Finland where the view set out above is not very welcome and regarded as weak. But I struggle to see the merit in going all out to reinstate the 2014 border. This seems to be based on some kind of punishment theory, that once 'beaten back' the Russians will not return. But I think this line of thinking runs in to the nuclear escalation problem which didn't exist in past conflicts with Russia (ie in the Winter War).

    In the end, isn't it the case that a smaller Ukraine, deprived of the large bulk of its Russian speaking population (and thus the pretext for Russian claims) would be a more coherant and defensible entity?
    "But I struggle to see the merit in going all out to reinstate the 2014 border. This seems to be based on some kind of punishment theory, that once 'beaten back' the Russians will not return."

    Reinstating the 2014 border would be exceedingly hard for Putin to sell as a 'win' for Russia. It would also tell other dictators or ner-do-wells that their imperialistic dreams could go very wrong. What is more, it is morally correct. It is Ukrainian territory.

    As for the 'nuclear escalation problem': I am now of the mind that it is bullshit, for several reasons. Firstly, Putin has not used them so far; even in March 2022 when humiliatingly forced to withdraw from vast swathes of Ukrainian territory. Neither in that autumn, when his forces again had to withdraw.

    Secondly, nukes are of no advantage to him in this war. Tactical nukes are too small to be of much use, and the anger their use would cause could lose many of the few friends he has left in the international community. And strategic bombs are very blunt instruments; have the same problem wrt international support, but doubly so.

    Thirdly, the use of nukes might cause NATO to get involved in a big way - and I believe Biden has warned Putin of that. A massive conventional response against the Russian forces in Ukraine. That also could lead to further escalaltion.

    No, Putin will not use nukes in Ukraine. The upsides for him are few, and the downsides many.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,331
    WillG said:

    Trump benefits when he is out of the news. Also, people are struggling with high prices.
    Is Trump out of the news, or less in the news than a year ago? And inflation is half what it was a year ago. So I'm not sure either can explain why Trump is at a bit of a high point, and Biden at a low point right now.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    rcs1000 said:

    The same argument was made with regards to the US in both the first and second world wars.

    This comparison has limited value. At both points the US had a very long history of immigration and integration. However both Sweden and Finland are characterised by very recent, rapid immigration and both have difficulties with integration and adaptation reflected in civil disorder (particularly Sweden) and the popularity of 'far right' parties further exacerbating tensions. Many assumptions people make about these countries are based on what they were like in the past and not how they are now.

    In the case of Finland, I don't think the problem is insurmountable but it is going to require a lot of effort.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    Delicious iced cappuccino. Freshly squeezed pineapple juice (squeezed in front of me)



    $2.50
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Sandpit said:

    In a word, no.

    Russia considers Ukraine to be Russian territory, any “solution” that fails to recognise the 1991 border gives the Russians breathing space to rearm and try again. So long as the Ukranians want to keep fighting - which they very much do - it’s in the rest of Europe’s self-interest to keep them fed with supplies of the best kit they can get their hands on.
    It isn't allowing them breathing space though because under the solution above Russia are still bogged down having to defend the current 'border'. Considering Western self interest more broadly, it is inevitably a balanced matter between supporting Ukraine and everything else Europe needs to do to defend itself against Russia given the uncertainties of the forthcoming US election. When you look at how unprepared Europe is for a war (as pre the articles about Sweden), throwing everything in to Ukraine looks like an elephant trap. Strategically the focus would be more effectively placed on securing its defensive abilities in relation to the existing situation. This position is never going to be acceptable to those in Ukraine who see the conflict as existential and all or nothing but it would achieve much in terms of reducing the legitimacy of Russian claims on Ukraine.

    I think the fallacy to avoid is that any meaningful 'peace deal' or 'agreement' can be made with Russia.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    darkage said:

    It isn't allowing them breathing space though because under the solution above Russia are still bogged down having to defend the current 'border'. Considering Western self interest more broadly, it is inevitably a balanced matter between supporting Ukraine and everything else Europe needs to do to defend itself against Russia given the uncertainties of the forthcoming US election. When you look at how unprepared Europe is for a war (as pre the articles about Sweden), throwing everything in to Ukraine looks like an elephant trap. Strategically the focus would be more effectively placed on securing its defensive abilities in relation to the existing situation. This position is never going to be acceptable to those in Ukraine who see the conflict as existential and all or nothing but it would achieve much in terms of reducing the legitimacy of Russian claims on Ukraine.

    I think the fallacy to avoid is that any meaningful 'peace deal' or 'agreement' can be made with Russia.
    Nobody would be attacking Russia if it was inside its internationally recognised borders. That includes withdrawing from South Ossetia and Transnistria, which is a humiliation for Mr Small One, but would end the conflict for them and mean they don't have to 'defend' anything.

    The reason this deal can't be made is because the egos of the current fascist clowns running the Russian government won't let them accept it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    darkage said:

    It isn't allowing them breathing space though because under the solution above Russia are still bogged down having to defend the current 'border'. Considering Western self interest more broadly, it is inevitably a balanced matter between supporting Ukraine and everything else Europe needs to do to defend itself against Russia given the uncertainties of the forthcoming US election. When you look at how unprepared Europe is for a war (as pre the articles about Sweden), throwing everything in to Ukraine looks like an elephant trap. Strategically the focus would be more effectively placed on securing its defensive abilities in relation to the existing situation. This position is never going to be acceptable to those in Ukraine who see the conflict as existential and all or nothing but it would achieve much in terms of reducing the legitimacy of Russian claims on Ukraine.

    I think the fallacy to avoid is that any meaningful 'peace deal' or 'agreement' can be made with Russia.
    There’s no ‘peace deal’ or ‘agreement’ possible with Russia. They’ve a longstanding history of ignoring any such agreements as they see fit.

    The only permanent solution to the problem of Russia, is a very long Berlin Wall between Russia and Europe, on the 1991 border, and defended collectively by European nations backed by the threat of nuclear escalation.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    rcs1000 said:

    Quite: the idea that it is moral to remove support from someone who has been attacked is repugnant.
    I am unconvinced. The 'appeal to morality' argument was much stronger in Afghanistan and we removed support there with terrible consequences, particularly for womens rights, that we don't spend any time discussing on here, despite the repeated interest in domestic issues relating to women's rights.

    Few outside the west believes its claims to be on the side of good in pursuing its wars which is a reason behind the global ambivalence towards Russia. However in the case of Ukraine the strategy I have referred to is not actually withdrawing support, it could make it more sustainable and durable.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    It's the time of year for the Scottish Gritter Tracker - or more specifically the gritters' names - to amuse me.

    https://www.traffic.gov.scot/gritter-tracker
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    ydoethur said:

    Nobody would be attacking Russia if it was inside its internationally recognised borders. That includes withdrawing from South Ossetia and Transnistria, which is a humiliation for Mr Small One, but would end the conflict for them and mean they don't have to 'defend' anything.

    The reason this deal can't be made is because the egos of the current fascist clowns running the Russian government won't let them accept it.
    Another perspective is that the Russian psyche relies on peripheral wars. From a strategic western point of view it is desirable that these should be directed to the some conflict with Islamists in the middle east or alternatively with China. It is a strategic blunder on our part that it has ended up happening in Ukraine.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    darkage said:

    Another perspective is that the Russian psyche relies on peripheral wars. From a strategic western point of view it is desirable that these should be directed to the some conflict with Islamists in the middle east or alternatively with China. It is a strategic blunder on our part that it has ended up happening in Ukraine.

    No. From a strategic point of view, it is desirable that Russia's psyche changes. And before you say "that won't happen," the rest of Europe has recovered from having serious wars at least every fifty years to relative peace and friendship.

    There is zero reason why the Russian psyche has to be the way it is. It is that way because of a false mythos perpetuated by the Russian state, spread through the state-controlled media. If that leadership were to change, or its views change, then so would the 'Russian psyche', albeit slowly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291
    darkage said:

    It isn't allowing them breathing space though because under the solution above Russia are still bogged down having to defend the current 'border'. Considering Western self interest more broadly, it is inevitably a balanced matter between supporting Ukraine and everything else Europe needs to do to defend itself against Russia given the uncertainties of the forthcoming US election. When you look at how unprepared Europe is for a war (as pre the articles about Sweden), throwing everything in to Ukraine looks like an elephant trap. Strategically the focus would be more effectively placed on securing its defensive abilities in relation to the existing situation. This position is never going to be acceptable to those in Ukraine who see the conflict as existential and all or nothing but it would achieve much in terms of reducing the legitimacy of Russian claims on Ukraine.

    I think the fallacy to avoid is that any meaningful 'peace deal' or 'agreement' can be made with Russia.
    On the contrary, the best defence of Europe is to keep the Ukranians fighting and killing Russians and wiping out Russian heavy weapons. Much better for both us and the Ukranians than having an occupied Ukraine and having to fight ourselves.

    The risk to Europe massively goes up if Ukranian defeat and Russian re-equipment happens.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797
    kamski said:

    A year ago Biden was at - 9 and Trump at - 18, what has happened to reverse their positions? Is it the record number of illegal immigrants crossing the border with Mexico?
    This poll suggests that's a strong possibility.

    John Fetterman was blasted online for endorsing tougher immigration laws, but to Pennsylvania voters in this Quinnipiac poll? It's a net positive. Voters say net +26 they view him more favorably for it. Not just Republicans and indys, even among *Democrats* it improves his image.
    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1745228184855924759

    Also, note that some kind of bipartisan deal on the border is reasonably likely, as part of the ongoing negotiations over lifting the GOP funding blockage.
  • viewcode said:

    For all those Bowie fans on PB, here's a hatchet job in the Spectator. The author does not like him. I think Bowie's rep will survive tho... :)

    https://archive.is/Vymj7

    Read right to the end. The author is a Bowie fan.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 727
    IanB2 said:

    The attraction of taking over ICL was that the latter was basically HMG’s computer company

    A little factoid that hasn’t been much noticed is that the head of Fujitsu UK during much of the relevant period is the husband of the Education Minister.
    I have just been reading an article in today's MailOnLine "The Fat Cats of Fijutsu". The Keegans feature a lot in it along with photos of their £2 million property near Midhurst - one of, I believe, five properties they own.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797
    darkage said:

    I am unconvinced. The 'appeal to morality' argument was much stronger in Afghanistan and we removed support there with terrible consequences, particularly for womens rights, that we don't spend any time discussing on here, despite the repeated interest in domestic issues relating to women's rights.

    Few outside the west believes its claims to be on the side of good in pursuing its wars which is a reason behind the global ambivalence towards Russia. However in the case of Ukraine the strategy I have referred to is not actually withdrawing support, it could make it more sustainable and durable.
    "...for the war in Ukraine to get de-escalated but essentially unresolved and still active,.." is a wish, not a strategy.

    Ceding the occupied Black Sea coast to Russia doesn't make Ukraine more defensible; quite the opposite.

    And it's clear from both the words and actions is Putin that for now he has no real interest in a deal.
    Indeed while the GOP block any further aid to Ukraine, he probably thinks he can win. You can't negotiate with Putin from a position of weakness - and ceding territory doesn't satisfy him, as Crimea proved.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Foxy said:

    On the contrary, the best defence of Europe is to keep the Ukranians fighting and killing Russians and wiping out Russian heavy weapons. Much better for both us and the Ukranians than having an occupied Ukraine and having to fight ourselves.

    The risk to Europe massively goes up if Ukranian defeat and Russian re-equipment happens.

    I am not saying that Ukraine should 'stop fighting'. I am explaining the merits of the current unspoken policy - a managed conflict that consumes Russian resources. Even if you somehow forced Russia back to the 1991 border the risk of Russia regrouping and rearming and then starting up again would be the same, if not higher - and the situation would be made worse if the west then naively resumed trade with Russia under the guise of 'reconciliation' as it would be under pressure to do.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    No. From a strategic point of view, it is desirable that Russia's psyche changes. And before you say "that won't happen," the rest of Europe has recovered from having serious wars at least every fifty years to relative peace and friendship.

    There is zero reason why the Russian psyche has to be the way it is. It is that way because of a false mythos perpetuated by the Russian state, spread through the state-controlled media. If that leadership were to change, or its views change, then so would the 'Russian psyche', albeit slowly.
    The UK has been involved in quite a few wars over the past 3 decades.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,858
    edited January 2024
    Next on GBeebies: The real justice in this post office scandal would be the exoneration of the innocent - Tory ministers and their relatives.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,402
    darkage said:

    It isn't allowing them breathing space though because under the solution above Russia are still bogged down having to defend the current 'border'. Considering Western self interest more broadly, it is inevitably a balanced matter between supporting Ukraine and everything else Europe needs to do to defend itself against Russia given the uncertainties of the forthcoming US election. When you look at how unprepared Europe is for a war (as pre the articles about Sweden), throwing everything in to Ukraine looks like an elephant trap. Strategically the focus would be more effectively placed on securing its defensive abilities in relation to the existing situation. This position is never going to be acceptable to those in Ukraine who see the conflict as existential and all or nothing but it would achieve much in terms of reducing the legitimacy of Russian claims on Ukraine.

    I think the fallacy to avoid is that any meaningful 'peace deal' or 'agreement' can be made with Russia.
    President Zelensky is in Tallinn this morning, having arrived late last night from Vilnius, before going to Riga later today.

    The Baltics, Poland and Ukraine are lock step in their determination to resist Russian aggression, and at the same time increasingly preparing for weakness in NATO, whether because Trump betrays the alliance, or some other reason. The point is, that the Central European democracies will not permit themselves to become the playthings of dictators ever again. Sweden is warning of war, in the Baltic we are actively preparing for it. Russia is clearly not invincible, and careful preparation can, as in Iraq, overcome much larger numbers. The Nordic/Baltic bloc, Poland, Romania are all NATO states (Sweden joining within weeks), and Ukraine is rapidly integrating with the NATO command.

    Russia is now and will continue to be a direct threat to European peace, however if Russia chooses to launch an attack, whether the USA can be relied on to defend its allies or not, then Putin may find the tempting morsels for his imperialist ambitions will be extremely difficult to swallow. I have often written here about the fear and determination that haunts Tallinn. Now we are standing to and facing the threat head on. After formal Swedish accession to NATO, expect to see further major announcements of increasing preparedness from all eight Nordic and Baltic countries together with Poland, Romania and Ukraine. Estonia has donated substantially all of its defence budget to Ukraine, and has also doubled military expenditure to over 4% of GDP.

    Meanwhile the UK is continuing to run down its own defences. Yet another catastrophic decision from the played out Conservative government.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,076
    Sandpit said:

    There’s no ‘peace deal’ or ‘agreement’ possible with Russia. They’ve a longstanding history of ignoring any such agreements as they see fit.

    The only permanent solution to the problem of Russia, is a very long Berlin Wall between Russia and Europe, on the 1991 border, and defended collectively by European nations backed by the threat of nuclear escalation.
    The Berlin Wall was built to keep the 'citizens inside'. The wall you describe would be a Trumplike Wall, to keep 'the others out'
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333
    Nigelb said:

    "...for the war in Ukraine to get de-escalated but essentially unresolved and still active,.." is a wish, not a strategy.


    It's also the current reality. For the entirity of 2023 the net territorial gain for the entire conflict was about 450km2 to the Russians. That's nugatory considering the length of the front is 600km.

    Since the failure of the Ukrainian cucksteroffensive nobody is doing anything or going anywhere beyond sporadic, attritional artillery and missile exchanges.

    It is, in fact, de-escalated, unresolved and still active.

    Those F-16s, though... 🎯
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The Tories and their bunch of media arse lickers need to stfu about Starmers role . He’s not going to be aware of every single prosecution in England .

    Total hypocrisy. No 10 employed Vennells as cabinet office director and they still are handing out contracts to Fujitsu .

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    @jamesjohnson252
    NEW 🇬🇧 Conservative-to-Labour switchers
    @jlpartnerspolls

    @timesradio
    focus group. Key points:

    💥 These switchers have left the Tories "for good", furious at lack of delivery of promises in 14 years of govt

    💥 Rishi Sunak has gone from a breath of fresh air a year ago to "typical politician who never answers a question", "out of touch", "spineless", and "false"

    💥 Sunak's new year election visits have been noticed - and have gone down like a cup of cold sick ("oily", "staged", PM "full of himself")

    💥 Tax cuts viewed as a "sweetener" just to get votes

    💥 Keir Starmer seen as "weak", "spineless", "unchallenging", "boring" and - above all else - as having "no plan". They are voting Labour *despite* Keir Starmer rather than because of him. Lack of plan/square one attack by Sunak was the only clip that went down well

    💥 The person who got the best reception - and is a threat to both parties - is Nigel Farage, seen as "relatable", "strong", shown to be "in touch" by time in the jungle. All bar one said they would vote for Nigel Farage if they had the chance

    💥 Tory win would leave people "gutted", Labour win a mix of "worried" and "hopeful". Hard to argue that - as the polling of direct switchers shows - these voters are coming back to the Conservatives any time soon

    📻 Listen to the focus group at 11am GMT on http://times.radio with me and
    @MattChorley
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291

    Next on GBeebies: The real justice in this post office scandal would be the exoneration of the innocent - Tory ministers and their relatives.

    The Guardian has covered the real heroes of the story this morning:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/10/mps-finally-recognise-the-real-heroes-of-the-post-office-scandal-mps
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,852
    Scott_xP said:

    @jamesjohnson252
    NEW 🇬🇧 Conservative-to-Labour switchers
    @jlpartnerspolls

    @timesradio
    focus group. Key points:

    💥 These switchers have left the Tories "for good", furious at lack of delivery of promises in 14 years of govt

    💥 Rishi Sunak has gone from a breath of fresh air a year ago to "typical politician who never answers a question", "out of touch", "spineless", and "false"

    💥 Sunak's new year election visits have been noticed - and have gone down like a cup of cold sick ("oily", "staged", PM "full of himself")

    💥 Tax cuts viewed as a "sweetener" just to get votes

    💥 Keir Starmer seen as "weak", "spineless", "unchallenging", "boring" and - above all else - as having "no plan". They are voting Labour *despite* Keir Starmer rather than because of him. Lack of plan/square one attack by Sunak was the only clip that went down well

    💥 The person who got the best reception - and is a threat to both parties - is Nigel Farage, seen as "relatable", "strong", shown to be "in touch" by time in the jungle. All bar one said they would vote for Nigel Farage if they had the chance

    💥 Tory win would leave people "gutted", Labour win a mix of "worried" and "hopeful". Hard to argue that - as the polling of direct switchers shows - these voters are coming back to the Conservatives any time soon

    📻 Listen to the focus group at 11am GMT on http://times.radio with me and
    @MattChorley

    This matches my experience

    Farage has a real appeal for a lot of people (not me - I’m just the messenger)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    Scott_xP said:

    @jamesjohnson252
    NEW 🇬🇧 Conservative-to-Labour switchers
    @jlpartnerspolls

    @timesradio
    focus group. Key points:

    💥 These switchers have left the Tories "for good", furious at lack of delivery of promises in 14 years of govt

    💥 Rishi Sunak has gone from a breath of fresh air a year ago to "typical politician who never answers a question", "out of touch", "spineless", and "false"

    💥 Sunak's new year election visits have been noticed - and have gone down like a cup of cold sick ("oily", "staged", PM "full of himself")

    💥 Tax cuts viewed as a "sweetener" just to get votes

    💥 Keir Starmer seen as "weak", "spineless", "unchallenging", "boring" and - above all else - as having "no plan". They are voting Labour *despite* Keir Starmer rather than because of him. Lack of plan/square one attack by Sunak was the only clip that went down well

    💥 The person who got the best reception - and is a threat to both parties - is Nigel Farage, seen as "relatable", "strong", shown to be "in touch" by time in the jungle. All bar one said they would vote for Nigel Farage if they had the chance

    💥 Tory win would leave people "gutted", Labour win a mix of "worried" and "hopeful". Hard to argue that - as the polling of direct switchers shows - these voters are coming back to the Conservatives any time soon

    📻 Listen to the focus group at 11am GMT on http://times.radio with me and
    @MattChorley

    Those voters will get disappointed with Labour very quickly.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Cicero said:

    President Zelensky is in Tallinn this morning, having arrived late last night from Vilnius, before going to Riga later today.

    The Baltics, Poland and Ukraine are lock step in their determination to resist Russian aggression, and at the same time increasingly preparing for weakness in NATO, whether because Trump betrays the alliance, or some other reason. The point is, that the Central European democracies will not permit themselves to become the playthings of dictators ever again. Sweden is warning of war, in the Baltic we are actively preparing for it. Russia is clearly not invincible, and careful preparation can, as in Iraq, overcome much larger numbers. The Nordic/Baltic bloc, Poland, Romania are all NATO states (Sweden joining within weeks), and Ukraine is rapidly integrating with the NATO command.

    Russia is now and will continue to be a direct threat to European peace, however if Russia chooses to launch an attack, whether the USA can be relied on to defend its allies or not, then Putin may find the tempting morsels for his imperialist ambitions will be extremely difficult to swallow. I have often written here about the fear and determination that haunts Tallinn. Now we are standing to and facing the threat head on. After formal Swedish accession to NATO, expect to see further major announcements of increasing preparedness from all eight Nordic and Baltic countries together with Poland, Romania and Ukraine. Estonia has donated substantially all of its defence budget to Ukraine, and has also doubled military expenditure to over 4% of GDP.

    Meanwhile the UK is continuing to run down its own defences. Yet another catastrophic decision from the played out Conservative government.
    The wisdom of Estonia donating all of its defence budget to Ukraine is the kind of thing I would question. Surely it has to defend itself as well as support Ukraine. I don't know very much about Estonia. I appreciate what you are saying about readiness, but does Estonia have (in practice) a viable strategy of total defence in the same way as Finland does?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,395
    isam said:

    In May 2009 #KeirStarmer prosecuted Wendy Cousins, sub-postmistress of the Post Office branch in Hertford Heath, Herts. She was sentenced to 21 months’ imprisonment but died in 2022 before the Court of Appeal could formally exonerate her. #StarmerResign

    telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/…


    https://x.com/exraf_al/status/1745191403666198542?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    SKS fans please explain.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797
    Dura_Ace said:

    It's also the current reality. For the entirity of 2023 the net territorial gain for the entire conflict was about 450km2 to the Russians. That's nugatory considering the length of the front is 600km.

    Since the failure of the Ukrainian cucksteroffensive nobody is doing anything or going anywhere beyond sporadic, attritional artillery and missile exchanges.

    It is, in fact, de-escalated, unresolved and still active.

    Those F-16s, though... 🎯
    That's a load of balls.
    No territory is exchanging hands, but the casualty rates tell an entirely different story.

    Russia is spending nearly a third of its GDP on the war. Some de-escalation.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789
    edited January 2024

    Those voters will get disappointed with Labour very quickly.
    Agreed.

    Since Starmer hasnt put any stakes in the ground he's trying to be all things to all men. That means he can only disappoint all since he hasnt set his stall out. Hes' heading down the same path as Sunak.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,797

    Those voters will get disappointed with Labour very quickly.
    Quite possibly.
    But let us all enjoy giving the current lot a good kicking at the polls first. Don't be a killjoy.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333
    Nigelb said:



    That's a load of balls.
    No territory is exchanging hands, but the casualty rates tell an entirely different story.

    How do you know what the casualty rates are? Everybody involved lies about everything all the time.
    Nigelb said:



    Russia is spending nearly a third of its GDP on the war. Some de-escalation.

    Russian military spending is ~6% of GDP.

  • Scott_xP said:

    @jamesjohnson252
    NEW 🇬🇧 Conservative-to-Labour switchers
    @jlpartnerspolls

    @timesradio
    focus group. Key points:

    💥 These switchers have left the Tories "for good", furious at lack of delivery of promises in 14 years of govt

    💥 Rishi Sunak has gone from a breath of fresh air a year ago to "typical politician who never answers a question", "out of touch", "spineless", and "false"

    💥 Sunak's new year election visits have been noticed - and have gone down like a cup of cold sick ("oily", "staged", PM "full of himself")

    💥 Tax cuts viewed as a "sweetener" just to get votes

    💥 Keir Starmer seen as "weak", "spineless", "unchallenging", "boring" and - above all else - as having "no plan". They are voting Labour *despite* Keir Starmer rather than because of him. Lack of plan/square one attack by Sunak was the only clip that went down well

    💥 The person who got the best reception - and is a threat to both parties - is Nigel Farage, seen as "relatable", "strong", shown to be "in touch" by time in the jungle. All bar one said they would vote for Nigel Farage if they had the chance

    💥 Tory win would leave people "gutted", Labour win a mix of "worried" and "hopeful". Hard to argue that - as the polling of direct switchers shows - these voters are coming back to the Conservatives any time soon

    📻 Listen to the focus group at 11am GMT on http://times.radio with me and
    @MattChorley

    Interesting stuff. 3 key points:
    1. The Tories are fucked. Proper Fucked. Another relaunch of Sunak won't make any difference. Their catastrophic failure to deliver quality of life improvements (because things are worse) means these voters are *done* with the Tories.
    2. Labour need to stop attacking the Tories and switch to Shadow Government mode. The election could be less than 5 months away. We'd do this. We'd do that. You need this.
    3. The Operation Samson approach for the Tories is to weaponise the Nigel. Yes, he would take votes off them. But more critically he could take votes off Labour. We have seen this week how Farage saying Starmer should resign as Post Office Minister has played. Offer him a knighthood - a proper one not a crappy one like IDS got.
This discussion has been closed.