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The inevitable result of having an insurrectionist controlling the GOP? – politicalbetting.com
The inevitable result of having an insurrectionist controlling the GOP? – politicalbetting.com
"Do you think it's likely there will be a civil war in America in the next ten years?"All:No: 42%Yes: 41%Those who say yes among:Republicans: 49%Independents: 39%Democrats: 34%Trump Voters: 51%Biden Voters: 32%YouGov / Jan 2, 2024 / n=3087
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I would make an excellent Viceroy of America.
By any reasonable objective standard, Trump did all he could to prevent a proper transfer of power from a one-term President to his successor. The seat of government was invaded to that end; people died. Many have been or will be imprisoned for their actions. Hopefully, that extends all the way up the line to Trump himself.
If you have a Supreme Court that regardless, is prepared to let him stand for selfish political reasons, rather than be a standard bearer for the US constitution, then the system of checks and balances has broken down. It doesn't mean civil war is inevitable; but it is a whole lot nearer than you would want it to be.
Which he accepted, until some time later he got complaints from constituents that their village SPSO was closed. When he asked about it, he found out that PO auditors had suspended the postmaster because of unexplained shortfalls, and when he investigated further he discovered that this subpostmaster was new and had taken over the SPSO from another subpostmaster who had been forced out after shortfalls. That was when he connected the dots and wondered whether there might be a bigger picture.
I don't think many politicians or any party comes out of this PO scandal well. Nor does most of the press, with some exceptions. But for most of the extended period of time this scandal played out - pretty much my entire adult life - the public hasn't cared either. So perhaps you can understand why elected politicians didn't feel the need to involve themselves too deeply.
I wonder whether the issue of complexity is the problem here. Although on one level the issue is simple - people lied to cover up problems with a product and tried to shift the blame for the problems onto innocent people - the details are quite complex, hard for the public or politicians to cut through especially when the experts can't be trusted. You see similar problems around other complex technical issues - epidemiology, trade with Europe - where politicians either deny responsibility or weaponise the complexity to deliberately misrepresent things.
I wonder whether the real failure here lies with the House of Lords. Isn't the whole point of the unelected House that it is composed of people with expertise who can dig into complex issues, including ones that the public don't currently care about? Isn't this precisely the kind of issue that an effective HoL would have got stuck into a decade ago? Perhaps I've missed it but I don't think I've seen that kind of activity.
Busy season ahead
Timeline:
January 15: Iowa - Democratic and Republican caucuses
January 23: New Hampshire - Democratic and Republican primaries
February 3: South Carolina - Democratic primary
February 6: Nevada - Democratic and Republican primaries
February 8: Nevada - party-organized caucuses
February 24: South Carolina - Republican primary
February 27: Michigan - Democratic and Republican primaries
March 2: Idaho, Michigan, and Missouri - Republican caucuses
March 3: District of Columbia - Republican primary
March 4:North Dakota - Republican caucuses
March 5: Super Tuesday
SSI - Some slight (but still significant) additions & corrections to above:
January 15 > Iowa - Democratic caucuses, as per wiki:
In this cycle, in-person caucuses focusing only on party business will be held on January 15, but voting on candidates would be done exclusively via mail-in ballots from January 12 until Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. This was the result of a compromise between the Iowa Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee (DNC).\
February 6 > Nevada Republican primary - NOTE that state GOP party rules bar any candidate appearing on this primary ballot, from receiving ANY pledged delegates, awarded sole on basis of Feb 8 Republican caucuses.
February 8> Nevada - NOTE no Democratic caucuses; PLUS Virgin Islands = Republican caucus
March 5 Super Tuesday > primaries in Alabama, Alaska (R only), California, Colorado, Iowa (D only), Maine, Mass, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah (D only), Vermont, Virginia
PLUS caucuses in American Samoa and Utah (R only)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/calendar
It is marvellous to read - former soldiers arguing from the point of view of practicality. Those wanting more accuracy vs reliability. Each listening to each other's arguments, presenting evidence, discussing alternatives. Lots of evident thinking.
But if you are the Death in Paradise museum is a hoot, it really is just the police station set open when they aren’t filming.
Subscribers to Nick Wallis's email letters will have just received a mail with the following extraordinary extract:
"Now read this - a comment sent for publication to a blog post I wrote from a purported for Fujitsu engineer using a dummy email address:
"While I put through no phantom entries myself, I was aware how commonplace it was, and the trivially easy overriding of the rudimentary audit trail embedded in the software too.
"What started as a prank swiftly became a crime, I prefer to believe most of the perpetrators never seriously consider that POL would treat the discrepancies so seriously and initiate prosecutions. It got totally out of hand. 90% of the phantoms were 'against' the agents, thus unjustly enriching POL.
"Did you notice the disproportionate number of victims whose agent locations were in Wales?"
Usual caveats apply. Could be fake, but if there is any substance to it this scandal has a bit to run yet.
This glut of gigs is making it hard for me to do my one main summer ambition: a trip through the Stans. Uzbek, Kazakh, and onwards. I shall squeeze it in somehow
Remote access has preoccupied the lawyers, as a clear matter of principle, but I am confident that it has fairly little to do with this scandal.
Truly living the life. And yes, yes I'm sure it's fantastic now with a rooftop pool and any number of cocktails, blah, blah.
The US Civil War was created by Progressive and Nationalist Abraham Lincoln refusing to compromise on slavery. There’s no current remotely similar situation in America.
If Trump wins democratic contest, there’s no war.
To install Trump despite the fact he loses the election? No.
Unlike with Lincoln, there is no threat where either the answer is Trump, or prevention of Trump is the answer. Trump is no threat to democracy - t’s already proved there’s no war if Trump loses - he didn’t even squat but fled.
The fear could be hyped up that if Trump got in he could dismantle the checks and balances of Democracy - but that would just be unproven hype, truth is he didn't last time, and the checks and balances of Democracy would prevent him from dismantling the checks and balances of democracy, unless you really wanted to go into silly territory with such an argument as to how it happens.
My moneys on fact Trump can’t get anywhere near winning another election, far too many voters who thought he could be good and make a difference in 2016, now know they were absolutely mistaken - Trump is absolutely incompetent as a leader to deliver any agenda, let alone a difficult change one. That’s how he’s perceived now by 2016 swing voters who won it for him.
"Fujitsu Prosecution Support
Tuesday 16 January
Rajbinder Sangha (née Bains) (Release Management Coordinator, Fujitsu Services Limited; former member of Fujitsu’s Fraud and Litigation Support Office)
Wednesday 17 January
John Simpkins (Team Leader within Fujitsu Software Support Centre)
Gerald Barnes (Software Developer, Fujitsu)
Thursday 18 January
Peter Sewell (former Project Manager and Operations Team Manager, Post Office Account Security Team, Fujitsu)
Donna Munro (former Systems Management Centre Team Leader and Security Operations Manager, Fujitsu)
Friday 19 January
William Paul Patterson (Director of Fujitsu Services Limited)"
https://www.postofficehorizoninquiry.org.uk/phase-4-hearing-schedule
FWIW (in trying to find the above) there's polling from about 18 months ago from YouGov that is not all that different:
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/43553-two-in-five-americans-civil-war-somewhat-likely
The Confederacy of Never-Trumpers.
For actual all out civil conflict, I think you would need secession, really. That in an of itself isn’t (frighteningly) out of the question. Given the extreme polarisation in US society now, what is to prevent California, say, deciding it isn’t going to sit back and take the potential democratic backsliding of a second Trump presidency? What if Biden gets in again and red states allege fraud again, and decide they will leave the Union? It is probably unlikely, but it’s certainly worryingly more likely than it was 10 years ago.
Snow, ice and cold are a given . . . but THIS year is predicted to see the coldest night ever in Iowa caucus history, with temperatures not expected to warm up above 0 degrees Fahrenheit, or -18 Celsius.
For context, previous record low temp on Iowa caucus night was in 2004, when daytime high was 16 F, or -9 C.
SO one burning - or freezing? - question is, will there be differential turnout from Trump supporters versus backers of the rest of the Republican field?
AND which candidate(s) may benefit - or not?
My own guess is that this may NOT be to Trump's advantage.
Of course, I'm somewhat biased. Seeing as how IF your truly were an Iowa resident, would definitely be attending local GOP caucus, regardless of frostbite risk, to cast my vote AGAINST Trump.
You could bet on it!
https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/The_National_Rifle_Association_Its_Tramw/S04IEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=bisley+railway#&printsec=frontcover
UNLESS they mean "services" as a verb; that is, in the same sense, as a stallion "services" a mare?
And I’ve been to a few entertaining cities
It has all the hedonistic languor of Bangkok in about 1990, with the buzz of a young Chinese city in 2003, with the sizzle of Saigon in 2010. And brilliant food. And no one gives a fuck, it is quite lawless. And excellent French wine is possibly cheaper here than in France
The reality is it’s not clear exactly how the mechanics of the Commons overturning hundreds of prosecutions will work. Sunak’s bill mechanism “sign this to say you are innocent, and face legal consequences if you are not” might not even be the better of the available options, whilst the promise of “exoneration and generously paid out by end of year” is, let’s be honest, an election year promise from a government that knows its under pressure today and will be in opposition at the end of the year when the promise comes to the crunch.
The media has finally picked up on this problem.
"Rise in drivers being dazzled by headlights: RAC blames brighter LEDs and more SUVs
Four in five motorists say the problem of dazzling is getting worse each year
Three quarters of drivers say they are regularly blinded by other car lights
Cheap aftermarket LED bulbs and failure to adjust lights have also been blamed"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/cars/article-12942101/Rise-drivers-dazzled-headlights-RAC-blames-brighter-LEDs-SUVs.html
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/10/eton-mess-college-delays-school-term-as-flooding-causes-toilets-to-back-up
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/10/infected-blood-scandal-victims-families-call-for-action-amid-post-office-injustice
In future, just tell us about the mediocre places.
“The majority of silica found in flint nodules is biogenic (produced by living organisms or biological processes). Although today's flint nodules are inorganic, the silica that formed them was originally sourced from the remains of sea sponges and siliceous planktonic micro-organisms (diatoms, radiolarians) during the late cretaceous period (60-95 million years ago”
By killing off everything with my constant carbonogenic air-travels, I will create MORE flints
Or else its the Bin Fires of Middlesbrough.
I agree that the failure of various institutions in the country more widely to correct the mistakes and dishonest at the Post Office is the more worrying feature of the scandal.
Have we not been discussing the problems with Horizon for as long as politicalbetting.com has been in existence? Why has it taken this long to get to this stage?
A company I worked for in the past did IT support for, among others, dental practices. One chap got rather abruptly sacked when it was discovered he'd been accessing his local practice's server to jump the queue and get earlier appointments. He was only caught because the software used by the practice got an update with enhanced logging that he was unaware of, and someone noticed appointments being booked at 2am...
Also the reason why the Republican Party has been doing the opposite.
As for constitutionality or otherwise, note that SCOTUS has ruled in favor of right of political parties to exclude non-party members from nominating proceedings, and NOT just for presidential nominations.
For example, decision (majority opinion by Antonin Scalia) declaring the old Washington State "blanket" primary (for everything except President) unconstitutional. Under this system, primary voters could vote for any (one) candidate regardless of party, with the top Democratic and top Republican vote-getters getting nominated.
Best primary system in the freaking world from perspective of VOTERS - so naturally Scalia wanted it gone, thus ruling it was grossly unfair to PARTIES.
He does like to mention all the people he prosecuted as Director of Public ProsecutIons
if he's happy to take the credit for the work the CPS did even when he wasn't the prosecuting lawyer he can take responsibility for their failures as well
https://x.com/timmyvoe240886/status/1745099359820345791?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Middlesbrough - a big hole that's been on fire for decades.
https://youtu.be/rIZgiuWAsqQ?si=LH3QAfOjt78AHLrh
https://x.com/lea_suzuki/status/1744885313544352001
And the matter of slavery. There'd have been another war of independence from the UK.
The contests are in Wellingborough and Kingswood, both safe Tory seats. But with Labour leading in the polls, either could inflict a damaging defeat on the prime minister months before the general election, almost certainly to be held later this year.
The Times understands that the writ needed to call a by-election will be moved for both seats on Thursday. After that, the vote must be held within 21 to 27 working days, with February 15 pencilled in by strategists.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/by-elections-kingswood-wellingsborough-tories-rishi-sunak-rzwtnnbsq
Most people then thought that it was risky for a miner to have his full week's pay with him, while he was drinking.
(Here's the UnHerd piece again: https://unherd.com/2024/01/why-women-still-rely-on-richer-men/ )
Several Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 passengers were hurt when a side of the Boeing 737 MAX 9 burst midflight last week — but injuries could have been much worse had circumstances been slightly different, according to local aviation medicine experts.
The aircraft was about 20 minutes into the flight, headed to Southern California, and had climbed about 16,000 feet when a door plug blew out and left a wide hole in the plane. If the MAX 9 had been at cruising altitude — around 30,000 to 40,000 feet — injuries might have been “catastrophic,” said Dr. William Bensinger, a Seattle aviation medical examiner who’s spent more than 40 years treating and evaluating pilots.
“The most concerning to me would be if someone was sitting in the seat next to the blowout,” Bensinger said. “Rapid decompression like that would cause air to rush out of the cabin, and if someone were sitting in that chair with their seatbelt off, they would get sucked out of the airplane. … It would have happened so fast you couldn’t react.”
On Flight 1282, no one was in the seat directly next to the blowout, but a 15-year-old was sitting in the window seat directly ahead of the hole as the air rushed out of the passenger cabin. His mother, sitting in the middle seat next to him, described to The Seattle Times seeing her son’s seat twisting backward toward the hole, his seat headrest ripped off and sucked into the void and her son’s arms jerked upward. . . .
She held on to her son tightly, hooking her arms beneath his arms and wrapped around his back. It wasn’t until after the flight, she said, that she noticed his clothing had been torn off his upper body.
The 10,000- to 20,000-foot difference in altitude means a significant difference in air pressure and available oxygen levels, according to Bensinger. At 16,000 feet, air pressure is “about 90% lower” than what people are used to at sea level, and passengers have about half the level of oxygen they’d normally have, he said. At 30,000 feet, even less oxygen is available in the air — and temperatures are much colder.
Cabins are generally pressurized between 4,000 and 8,000 feet, but if the door had blown out while the plane was at cruise level, people aboard would likely have had less than a minute before losing consciousness, Bensinger said. . . .
SSI - Boeing, its subcontractor(s) AND the FAA have MUCH explaining to do, to put it most mildly.
AND so does Alaska Airlines.
Why? Because they knew the airplane in question had a PROBLEM with pressurization . . . and actually kept it from flying over the Pacific Ocean from West Coast to Hawaii and back . . . yet kept it flying on other routes!
Note the plane was headed from Portland, Oregon to Ontario, California. Incident occurred shortly after takeoff, when plane was only half way up to normal cruising altitude.
So IF it had happened say a hour later . . . .
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/09/brooklyn-synagogue-secret-tunnel-dispute-arrests
Also, an irrelevant waste of everyone’s time. It doesn’t really matter whether China, Russia, the UK or France insist on a ceasefire, and we’re in the P5. The idea that anyone can get excited over a vote on what one city has to say in the U.S. seems bonkers to me.
But then that’s rather the point isn’t it: only the fringe nutters turn up to these things, because only they think they matter. So you end up with “nuclear free Basingstoke” or whatever.
It's easy to forget that there has been a lot of reporting on it, including on what are in theory flagship shows - there's been not one, but two, Panoramas.
But it's never particularly caught fire in part because the public don't usually all watch linear TV of an evening anymore or buy enough papers that one banging on about it cuts through. It was never particularly covered as frontpage or bulletin-leading news in part because it wasn't sexy and was dragged out for so long.
Yes it had a bit of David v Goliath, but it lacked the usual villains and Westminster soap opera that news websites like to use for clicks. It was also very difficult to understand and with diffuse blame. And didn't play into existing divides and debates.
That's where the TV drama has an advantage - it can turn it into that - focusing blame and getting to the heart of what was appalling. It also has the advantage of the watercooler - when people see a great drama they recommend it and others watch, knowing that if they're new to the subject and don't understand it, they still might find the drama compelling.
By 'showbizification' I mean lobby coverage now treats politics like showbiz - it loves tittle-tattle, picks favourites, and often covers what someone's saying on the surface rather than reality. And desperate for endless attention. So The Sun decides to come up with ever more odd reasons to hate Keir Starmer every day (rather than, y'know finding actual news that might be bad for him), while The Guardian and Telegraph tilt at culture war windmills because they believe it's what readers go for and share.
Which is very bad for situations like this as end up in a vicious circle. It will only get the kind of blanket coverage it needs to break through and force politicians to act when it proves it's of interest to enough people, yet it can't prove that without said blanket coverage.
So it bobs along on page 50, mid-bulletin on Radio 4, or in specialist publications, with no real pressure other than in the courts, to do something about it.
Interesting, part of joint Anglo-Franco gambit that included French invasion of Mexico AND British construction & arming of Confederate warships, most notably CSS Alabama and CSS Shenandoah.
The Daily Telegraph is getting out of the booze business.
I can’t see that being paid back although it ought to be.
"I am going to Bisley" came the reply...
The Supreme Court has nonetheless taken on a role based on party nomination being an integral part of the election process (and run at public expense now), and SSI has indicated cases. They do give quite a lot of leeway to varied processes between states, though, and I'd expect a very conservative court to be rather reluctant to move further towards standardising.
A lot of the pressure to do so isn't really constitutional but public pressure on state and national parties. Caucuses are much less widely used than they were (and steps have been taken to widen participation even when used) not primarily due to constitutional law but the fact punters find them a pain in the arse.