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Trump remains favourite to win W2024 – politicalbetting.com
Trump remains favourite to win W2024 – politicalbetting.com
By far the biggest political betting market is November’s White Houe race in the US. As can be seen Trump has lost a little of his betting appeal and he remains favourite.
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FAO @Benpointer
PB Predictions Comp 2024.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 7%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 16/01/2025
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Farage
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 140 seats
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Trump & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Biden
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.5%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 4.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £100bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 50
Thank you @Benpointer
I last won a PB predictions comp in 2007.
to Super Tuesday; NOTE that South Carolina REPUBLICAN primary not until Feb 24.
January 15 > Iowa REPUBLICAN Precinct Caucuses
January 23 > New Hampshire Primary
February 3 > South Carolina DEMOCRATIC Primary
February 6 > Nevada DEMOCRATIC Primary
February 8 > Nevada REPUBLICAN Caucus; Virgin Island REPUBLICAN Caucus
February 24 > South Carolina REPUBLICAN Primary
February 27 > Michigan Primary
March 2 > Idaho Republican Caucus; Missouri Republican Caucus
March 3 > District of Columbia Republican Primary
March 4 > North Dakota Republican Caucus
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 8%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 24/10/24
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 52 seats
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Biden
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 5.5%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 5.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £123.2bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 48
@Benpointer - thank you for organising.
A blend of pessimism and optimism in there.
The police added that the man wanted to thank the fishermen - named as Mike, Tyler and James - for rescuing him, along with all the emergency services.
It's hard to know how accurate a poll can be under current circumstances, but does look a strong swing to Hamas since September.
Palestine, PCPSR poll:
Party support
Hamas (Islamist): 41% (+19)
Fatah (Centre-left): 17% (-9)
Independent nationalist (*): 6% (+2)
PIJ (Islamist): 2% (-1)
…
+/- vs. Sep 2023
Fieldwork: 22 Nov-2 Dec 2023
Size: 1,232
https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1742722158500147679?t=1fbwEtyo2bLbrvPHNeXGbA&s=19
Mine , apologies for late entry
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 8%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 31/10/24
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 60 seats
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Biden
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.5%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.5%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £114bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 52
Especially as Biden is not the strongest of candidates.
Is that a sign they think Trump will try to enter the race anyway and split the Republican vote?
Biden's only really there because he's a (and possibly the only) proven antidote to the stains of Trump.
I have her quite green as next POTUS
If you win, I an likely to be close behind.
And Happy New Year.
Just look at the graph here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election#Polling_graph
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 11%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 02/05/24
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 70 seats
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Biden
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.0%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 1.7%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £130bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 56
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 5.74%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 17/10/24
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Humza, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 52 seats
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.00%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 1.1% although deflation is a risk
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £106Bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 48
I wonder how the people who funded the purchase are feeling?
Edit: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/jan/02/x-twitter-stock-falls-elon-musk
Luke should just ignore the twats.
https://x.com/lukeh180/status/1742722996811321462?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
Destroying Twitter's credibility and possibly Twitter itself will definitely help humanity, but I don't think that's quite what he meant!
Rishi Sunak
@RishiSunak
Follow
Congratulations Luke, a great win tonight. What an incredible final to end a historic championship. I know that
@lukeh180
and
@LukeTheNuke180
will be leading the sport for years to come.
Response should surely have been Dart Boards a bit high for you mate
@SkySportsDarts
·
·
Admittedly, there were some fairly major events going on at the time.
I also don't quite see Harris as Humphrey.
1. 10%
2. Oct 31st
3. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Farage
4. Lab majority - 40 seats
5. Trump and Biden
6. Biden
7. 3%
8. 4%
9. £180bn
10. 40
@Benpointer
Go on then.
1. 10%
2. Oct 31st
3. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Farage
4. Lab majority - 40 seats
5. Trump and Biden
6. Biden
7. 3%
8. 4%
9. £180bn
10. 40
11. Astronomers announce evidence of life emanating from another planet
I think it's something related to that but slightly different. People possessed of a moral compass and a modicum of judgement (which is most on here) view the return of Trump to the US presidency as something akin to a huge global natural disaster. This is what prevents them 'tipping' it. It feels wrong to go around tipping huge global natural disasters. It's the macro equivalent of tipping somebody's pet to die. If you feel these things you keep them to yourself.
That's my theory. That's why I think our Comp entries have 5 Bidens for every Trump despite their current prices being 3.5 and 2.6 respectively.
To be honest, though, I think the major thing we're all missing is Biden gives every sign of *wanting* to remain President. I suppose he could hardly make a show of reluctance but he's been absolutely steadfast in saying he would run again and has made no attempt to groom a possible replacement (including Harris). I thought in 2016 he'd be happy with ridding the country of Trump and serve just one term, but it certainly hasn't worked out that way.
The research now needs validating. As was seen with the Phosphine on Venus research four or five years ago, claims are very different from evidence.
(The Venus example was quite funny. It was announced that Phosphine had been detected in meaningful quantities in its atmosphere. Mistakes were found in the research that reduced the quantity, but still to meaningful amounts. Many papers were then published arguing against the original research. And the latest is... yes, there is Phosphine in Venus's atmosphere. It's almost as if the wrong person/group discovered it...)
It took him 45 minutes to drive from Redcar to Hartlepool. With his new tunnel, the trip would take "2-3 minutes". Lets assume the new road tunnel follows a direct line between the two - entirely out to sea. Its 7.3 miles. In "2-3 minutes"
He's such a wazzock
https://twitter.com/BenHouchen/status/1742821254552248368
I know @SeaShantyIrish2 takes the view they wouldn't be a problem for him, and he knows more about the US system than I do. However, there are other voices that disagree:
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/how-state-sore-loser-laws-make-it-7105505/
The summary of that article is that in 28 states the authors consider it would be impossible for a losing candidate in the primaries to mount an independent campaign.
What's also interesting is that most of these states are actually Republican, which suggests even if Trump lost and ran where he could, it wouldn't necessarily hamper a Republican by splitting the vote in red states.
I think it's moot though. At this moment the only way he's not the candidate is if he's tossed from the ballot by the Supreme Court or in jail.
The first is the proverbial snowflake's chance in hell, and the second is possible but especially given the procedural games his attorneys are playing, not notably likely before the Republican National Convention in July.
And could he possibly now stay there?
The irony is that he won’t get it because it doesn’t make economic sense but if we were Norway it would have been built years ago
Got to say everything I’m seeing tells me he is not expecting to be re-elected because the things he is promising can’t be delivered
It will, nonetheless, be a profound moment. The moment when we can say “we are not alone” - even if our only neighbours are a small colony of brainless airborne Protozoa
I think they're wrong on that. The primaries start in a few weeks... he's surely left it too late to drop out.
son of an ex-President, and very nearly selected the ex-wife of another in the last few years without any mentioning nepotism. And I don't mean Mrs Obama.
What's wrong with choosing the prettiest one this time? Odds against but she has got form.
My view he can't win is based on the idea that support for him is expressed as typical mid-term irritation with a sitting president and is not likely to translate to the ballot box.
It's worth remembering candidates he endorsed did very badly in the 2022 midterms, which should have been straightforward for the Republicans to win easily, and the comparatively few that did win have since spent most of their time attacking their own party.
There's still time for to enter before the end of Saturday. I'll aim to publish a reminder and a list of all the entries I have recorded, on Saturday.
Thanks all!
With apologies to @Northern_Al and his book, but generally my predictions are wrong.
I just hope I'm not wrong about the orangutan.
That's an evidence-free hunch.
“#UFOx #UFOtwitter #UAP #NHI
@drbecky_ 🙏
Another astrophysicist prediction.
Becky Smethurst -
A new scientific paper in 2024 - on a biosignature in an exoplanet.
Source: youtube.com/watch?v=tJ3ZJj…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Becky_Sme…
https://x.com/wow36932525/status/1741955861633724852?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Only two Democratic presidential incumbents have been defeated seeking re-election since the Civil War.
One was Grover Cleveland, who was the first (and so far only) President to be elected to non-consecutive terms.
The other was Jimmy Carter.
It is fair to note that there haven't been that many Dems as president since 1860 and Lyndon Johnson served only one and a bit terms. But Wilson, Roosevelt, Truman, Johnson, Clinton and Obama were all re-elected.
Finding bio-signatures on an exoplanet is also cool for a different reason: there is a chance that a common 'seed' seeded life on both Earth and Venus - or that meteorites spread life between the two (panspermia). That's much less likely between planets in different solar systems.
And being pedantic: we know of lots of 'non-human' life. Cats, for instance. Or dogs. Or grass. Or amoeba. the 'non-human' part of your post was unnecessary.
Trump's age will not become an issue - partly because he's four years younger than his opponent and partly because if it might, it would have already.
I'd also disagree that there's a long way to go. It's only two months to Super Tuesday, by when almost half the convention delegates will have been elected (in fact, more than half will have been by the following week's contests). Trump has absolutely commanding leads in the national polling and the early state polling, and as at the Q3 filings, had raised twice as much finance as any other candidate and had three times as much on hand (granted, this is three months ago but it's unlikely to have changed to his disadvantage given how the rest are squabbling among themselves).
Yes, legal and health problems could yet stop him. So could a spectacularly good result for someone else - though I struggle to see why one would come about unless there's a major change in circumstances. But the clock is ticking.
On the other side, better than 2-1 for an unchallenged, incumbent president is just silly. He has his challenges but that's way too long.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
“Tim Peake became the first British astronaut to ever visit the International Space Station. He now shares his thoughts on extraterrestrial life. “
https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2024/do-aliens-exist/
There was another similar “disclosure” on the Jools Holland show on NYE. Of all places
Sounds to me like they know. The JWST has found conclusive evidence of exoplanetary life, they are waiting for it to be peer reviewed, it will be revealed this year
https://x.com/paulsanderson/status/1742750156343349510?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Looks really quite likely to me
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4643740/#Comment_4643740
Laying the both of them is a very decent trade imo.
Palestine, PCPSR poll:
Hamas (Islamist): 68% (+25)
Fatah (Centre-left): 25% (-21)
PNI (Centre-left): 4% (+1)
PFLP (Left): 1% (-2)
+/- vs. Sep 2023
Fieldwork: 22 Nov-2 Dec 2023
Size: 1,232
As with most polls the assumption that DK/DNV voters will break the same as other voters is a questionable one.
Or not, as mug punters are always welcome to the rest of us.
Of course, Haley might lose to Biden without a Trump candidacy at the general election. If he is denied the nomination, he won't take it lying down (unless dead), and his rantings would no doubt be directed as much (or more) at her than Biden.
But those who think Trump may run as an independent need to answer three questions:
1. What causes Trump to lose the GOP nomination from such an overwhelming position now?
2. If he is defeated outright in the primaries or at the convention, why should he garner any meaningful support in the general when his base must, by definition, have already abandoned him?
3. What is the precise process and timeline by which this happens, given filing deadlines and sore-loser rules?
Harrison
Taft (the second and, to date, the last president to finish behind his predecessor in the electoral college)
Hoover
Ford (harsh)
George H. Bush
Trump
Not including Hayes (honoured a pledge to serve one term only) and Arthur (dropped at the Convention).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxima_Centauri_b
(BTW, I want my gravitational lensing telescope. It uses the Sun as the lens. There's only a few minor engineering issues to get through first...)
It's driven by concerns about his health, not the primary process.
If so, he can't be President - even as an independent. But his ego might LOVE the idea of a massive write-in campaign, just to let The Swamp know what they think. So 10% of votes write in Trump as President - enough to give Biden a resounding EC win.
I think quite a few people tip Biden because they are scared DJT will pull out of NATO and they don't want to think about the UK not cowering behind Superman's cape. He doesn't have the attention span to overcome the inertia and the people in his administration who will sabotage the project so nothing to worry about really...
If she was, I would suspect it simply comes down to more folk supporting Dems, and Trump’s absence removing the base-galvanising effect for the GOP. Tbh there’s a reasonable chance in this scenario the Dems run a different candidate but I have no clue who that would be. Either way I’d plump for a Dem win.
There’s the Trump third candidate scenario as well, which is unlikely but not improbable.
Yes, the concept has problems, but the Drake Equation is of interest in focusing on what we need to find out. Since it was posited, we have much more information on extra solar planets, for example.
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Now, that's not to say that he can't be denied ballot access depending on state law. The Colorado judgement looks sound from what I've read. But even if he is declared an insurrectionist by the SCOTUS - the odds on which has to be factored in - it will still depend on what each state says about whether that bans (or can ban) ballot access.
Also, Biden didn't get the biggest popular vote in US history because he enthused so many tens of millions. He was the best stop-Trump candidate. I'd expect turnout on the blue side to also be down without such a galvanizing figure as Trump as an opponent.
As ever, the question is one of demand: how much demand would there be for such a link? I doubt Redcar and Hartlepool generate enough traffic between them for a direct link.
There seems to have been a study before:
https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/transport-study-eastern-river-crossing-16555048
And more info on previous ideas here:
https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/newport-bridge-become-one-way-12735825
Looking at a map, I'd think an updated crossing nearer the transporter bridge would make more sense; but a study would discern traffic flows.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/12/02/sweet-swingbacks-baadasssss-song/
When I started looking into this in the early 1990s, many were saying that there could not possibly be any exoplanets - that our solar system was, for some reason, unique. Within a few years they were proved wrong. I expect the pessimists for the other parts of the equation to be proved wrong. Except perhaps for fc and L...
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 10%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 10th October
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Farage
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour largest Party (around 10 short)
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Trump & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Biden
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.5%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 4.5%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £120bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 40
“How low do you have to stoop in this country to be President?”
― Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72