On Topic: Donald Trump is indeed the betting fav for WH24 yet few of the PBers who entered Ben Pointer's tipping competition put him down as their winner. For every Trump there were 5 Bidens, I'd say. Why is this? Is it because people are conflating what they want to happen with what's likely to happen?
I think it's something related to that but slightly different. People possessed of a moral compass and a modicum of judgement (which is most on here) view the return of Trump to the US presidency as something akin to a huge global natural disaster. This is what prevents them 'tipping' it. It feels wrong to go around tipping huge global natural disasters. It's the macro equivalent of tipping somebody's pet to die. If you feel these things you keep them to yourself.
That's my theory. That's why I think our Comp entries have 5 Bidens for every Trump despite their current prices being 3.5 and 2.6 respectively.
DJT needs (I think) to flip any three out of PA, NV, GA and WI. Seems do-able because they were all won on thin margins by Abu Hunter.
I think quite a few people tip Biden because they are scared DJT will pull out of NATO and they don't want to think about the UK not cowering behind Superman's cape. He doesn't have the attention span to overcome the inertia and the people in his administration who will sabotage the project so nothing to worry about really...
On that last point, I disagree. If Trump is elected, one of the first things he will do is sack the swamp. He's learned from the resistance put up to him and has a plan to do it, namely defining 50,000 federal employees as Category F. There won't be any adults in the room this time (and, indeed, there weren't any really by the end of his 2017-21 term).
Besides, if a president was set on pulling out of Nato, he could.
Actually don't worry @Benpointer, Jonathan has handily done a bit of a template!
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024 - 9% 2. Date of the next UK General Election - 14th November 3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called - Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice 4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%) - Labour win, 64 seat majority 5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems - Trump & Biden 6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner - Biden 7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024 - 3.75% 8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%) - 2.3% 9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn) - £89bn 10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64)- 61
It'll be fascinating to see what stunts DJT pulls if the polls are close as we get to polling day. Two things that could be possible are moving to a stridently anti-vax position and promising a pardon for the J6 shaheeds. Both of those would go down well with his base.
“How low do you have to stoop in this country to be President?” ― Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72
I thought pardons for The Jamiroquai tribute act(s) had already been promised by Trump?
Actually don't worry @Benpointer, Jonathan has handily done a bit of a template!
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024 - 9% 2. Date of the next UK General Election - 14th November 3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called - Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice 4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%) - Labour win, 64 seat majority 5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems - Trump & Biden 6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner - Biden 7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024 - 3.75% 8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%) - 2.3% 9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn) - £89bn 10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64)- 61
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
If there is life elsewhere, I can see problems with communication. After sending off an invite to a welcome party, the RSVP might take a couple of billion years to arrive.
It's not quite that bad. AIUI to detect atmospheres you need the planet to be (relatively) close - the further away it is, the harder it is to detect, aside from flukes like gravitational lensing. And the nearer it is, the better the data and conclusions. Therefore I'd expect such a planet to be within 30-40 Light Years - that's next door, cosmically speaking. And there are dozens of confirmed exoplanets within that distance, including Proxima Centauri b, which is a little over 4 Light Years away.
Yes, the concept has problems, but the Drake Equation is of interest in focusing on what we need to find out. Since it was posited, we have much more information on extra solar planets, for example.
Yep, some parts of the equation are being firmed up. But others - the later ones in the equation - are still exceptionally nebulous.
When I started looking into this in the early 1990s, many were saying that there could not possibly be any exoplanets - that our solar system was, for some reason, unique. Within a few years they were proved wrong. I expect the pessimists for the other parts of the equation to be proved wrong. Except perhaps for fc and L...
I finished my degree in astrophysics in 1994, and I don't remember anyone saying there could not possibly be exoplanets. Indeed, it was generally assumed that other stars would also have planets, even though we couldn't (yet) see them. Why would anyone think otherwise?
If Trump gets elected a big part of it will be a reaction to Metoo and 'woke'. A significant part of his support is based on an existential fear, particularly amongst men, of these social movements. This could explain why Biden is so careful to avoid association with "woke" stuff. People rarely make any attempt to delve in to these issues or discuss them seriously, instead referring to it as 'racism, misogyny, toxic masculinity' which needs to be 'exposed and defeated'. But perhaps not everyone actually sees things this way, it won't be defeated, and Trump will be elected again, as the polls suggest will happen. What then?
If there is life elsewhere, I can see problems with communication. After sending off an invite to a welcome party, the RSVP might take a couple of billion years to arrive.
It's not quite that bad. AIUI to detect atmospheres you need the planet to be (relatively) close - the further away it is, the harder it is to detect, aside from flukes like gravitational lensing. And the nearer it is, the better the data and conclusions. Therefore I'd expect such a planet to be within 30-40 Light Years - that's next door, cosmically speaking. And there are dozens of confirmed exoplanets within that distance, including Proxima Centauri b, which is a little over 4 Light Years away.
Yes, the concept has problems, but the Drake Equation is of interest in focusing on what we need to find out. Since it was posited, we have much more information on extra solar planets, for example.
Yep, some parts of the equation are being firmed up. But others - the later ones in the equation - are still exceptionally nebulous.
When I started looking into this in the early 1990s, many were saying that there could not possibly be any exoplanets - that our solar system was, for some reason, unique. Within a few years they were proved wrong. I expect the pessimists for the other parts of the equation to be proved wrong. Except perhaps for fc and L...
I finished my degree in astrophysics in 1994, and I don't remember anyone saying there could not possibly be exoplanets. Indeed, it was generally assumed that other stars would also have planets, even though we couldn't (yet) see them. Why would anyone think otherwise?
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
If there is life elsewhere, I can see problems with communication. After sending off an invite to a welcome party, the RSVP might take a couple of billion years to arrive.
It's not quite that bad. AIUI to detect atmospheres you need the planet to be (relatively) close - the further away it is, the harder it is to detect, aside from flukes like gravitational lensing. And the nearer it is, the better the data and conclusions. Therefore I'd expect such a planet to be within 30-40 Light Years - that's next door, cosmically speaking. And there are dozens of confirmed exoplanets within that distance, including Proxima Centauri b, which is a little over 4 Light Years away.
Yes, the concept has problems, but the Drake Equation is of interest in focusing on what we need to find out. Since it was posited, we have much more information on extra solar planets, for example.
Yep, some parts of the equation are being firmed up. But others - the later ones in the equation - are still exceptionally nebulous.
When I started looking into this in the early 1990s, many were saying that there could not possibly be any exoplanets - that our solar system was, for some reason, unique. Within a few years they were proved wrong. I expect the pessimists for the other parts of the equation to be proved wrong. Except perhaps for fc and L...
I finished my degree in astrophysics in 1994, and I don't remember anyone saying there could not possibly be exoplanets. Indeed, it was generally assumed that other stars would also have planets, even though we couldn't (yet) see them. Why would anyone think otherwise?
Human exceptionalism; see also religion.
"We are different; we are unique"
Well of course there are nutters out there who believe all sorts of things, but certainly within the scientific community there was little doubt at all that other stars would also turn out to have planets. It would have been a major surprise to say the least if they hadn't!
I am interested that so many people think Haley might get the Rep nomination yet still lose to Biden.
Especially as Biden is not the strongest of candidates.
Is that a sign they think Trump will try to enter the race anyway and split the Republican vote?
It may well be. If so, they need to think harder.
Or not, as mug punters are always welcome to the rest of us.
Of course, Haley might lose to Biden without a Trump candidacy at the general election. If he is denied the nomination, he won't take it lying down (unless dead), and his rantings would no doubt be directed as much (or more) at her than Biden.
But those who think Trump may run as an independent need to answer three questions:
1. What causes Trump to lose the GOP nomination from such an overwhelming position now? 2. If he is defeated outright in the primaries or at the convention, why should he garner any meaningful support in the general when his base must, by definition, have already abandoned him? 3. What is the precise process and timeline by which this happens, given filing deadlines and sore-loser rules?
Trump could be prevented from being on the ballot because he was an insurrectionist.
If so, he can't be President - even as an independent. But his ego might LOVE the idea of a massive write-in campaign, just to let The Swamp know what they think. So 10% of votes write in Trump as President - enough to give Biden a resounding EC win.
Insurrectionists can be president (and hold any other office), if Congress lifts the ban on them. It's a contingent rather than absolute bar.
It could only be overturned by a two-thirds vote of both House and Senate, though, and that just isn't going to happen. In the very unlikely event of Trump being declared ineligible and, despite being off the ballot in many states, still winning, Democrats will easily have the numbers to block it even if GOP control both chambers (which is perfectly possible, but not with super-majorities).
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
I'm sure I wouldn't understand the answer, but how the hell do they do that?
There are chemical compounds that can only be created by life.
What I can’t work out is how you identify that those compounds exist from billions of miles away
There are chemical compounds that currently are assumed to be only created by life.
The history of astronomical chemistry/observations is littered with finding compounds that were assumed to be life-only generated - and then realising that they can be produced in other ways.
I am interested that so many people think Haley might get the Rep nomination yet still lose to Biden.
Especially as Biden is not the strongest of candidates.
Is that a sign they think Trump will try to enter the race anyway and split the Republican vote?
It may well be. If so, they need to think harder.
Or not, as mug punters are always welcome to the rest of us.
Of course, Haley might lose to Biden without a Trump candidacy at the general election. If he is denied the nomination, he won't take it lying down (unless dead), and his rantings would no doubt be directed as much (or more) at her than Biden.
But those who think Trump may run as an independent need to answer three questions:
1. What causes Trump to lose the GOP nomination from such an overwhelming position now? 2. If he is defeated outright in the primaries or at the convention, why should he garner any meaningful support in the general when his base must, by definition, have already abandoned him? 3. What is the precise process and timeline by which this happens, given filing deadlines and sore-loser rules?
But you miss the point that he doesn't even need to run to take votes from Haley - write-ins and abstentions.
If he's lost the nomination to Haley, he must have lost control of the GOP and of his base - and we therefore need to ask why.
Also, Biden didn't get the biggest popular vote in US history because he enthused so many tens of millions. He was the best stop-Trump candidate. I'd expect turnout on the blue side to also be down without such a galvanizing figure as Trump as an opponent.
Is it even possible to write in another candidate using an electronic voting machine?
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
I'm sure I wouldn't understand the answer, but how the hell do they do that?
There are chemical compounds that can only be created by life.
What I can’t work out is how you identify that those compounds exist from billions of miles away
" The technique that JWST will use is called transit spectroscopy. As a transiting exoplanet passes in front of its host star, we can observe the exoplanet's atmosphere as it is backlit by the star. Additional atmospheric observations can be made by watching as the exoplanet disappears and reappears from behind the star. In these observations, the exoplanets and their stars are not spatially separated on the sky but instead, observed in the combined light of the planet–star system. "
"During a transit, some of the starlight is eclipsed by the planet completely (causing the overall dimming) and some is transmitted through the planet’s atmosphere. Because different gases absorb different combinations of colours, researchers can analyse small differences in the brightness of the transmitted light across a spectrum of wavelengths to determine exactly what an atmosphere is made of."
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
I'm sure I wouldn't understand the answer, but how the hell do they do that?
There are chemical compounds that can only be created by life.
What I can’t work out is how you identify that those compounds exist from billions of miles away
There are chemical compounds that currently are assumed to be only created by life.
The history of astronomical chemistry/observations is littered with finding compounds that were assumed to be life-only generated - and then realising that they can be produced in other ways.
The Cardiff paper on phosphine in Venus's atmosphere apparently did a very good job of trying to discern and quantify 'natural' non-life sources of the gas. I'd expect that to be a much harder job on exoplanets.
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
I'm sure I wouldn't understand the answer, but how the hell do they do that?
There are chemical compounds that can only be created by life.
What I can’t work out is how you identify that those compounds exist from billions of miles away
Short answer: spectroscopy
Longer answer: different atoms molecules absorb slightly different wavelengths of light and so on. So if you have light from a distant planet or solar system, you can record what specific colours are missing and work out what chemicals are present to cause those absorptions.
When I used to dive regularly with astrophysics, they often got narked at the amount spent on rocketry when there was much more science per pound/dollar from telescopes.
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
I'm sure I wouldn't understand the answer, but how the hell do they do that?
There are chemical compounds that can only be created by life.
What I can’t work out is how you identify that those compounds exist from billions of miles away
Short answer: spectroscopy
Longer answer: different atoms molecules absorb slightly different wavelengths of light and so on. So if you have light from a distant planet or solar system, you can record what specific colours are missing and work out what chemicals are present to cause those absorptions.
When I used to dive regularly with astrophysics, they often got narked at the amount spent on rocketry when there was much more science per pound/dollar from telescopes.
I misread that and was surprised that you spent time naked diving with astrophysicists while discussing rockets and telescopes.
If there is life elsewhere, I can see problems with communication. After sending off an invite to a welcome party, the RSVP might take a couple of billion years to arrive.
It's not quite that bad. AIUI to detect atmospheres you need the planet to be (relatively) close - the further away it is, the harder it is to detect, aside from flukes like gravitational lensing. And the nearer it is, the better the data and conclusions. Therefore I'd expect such a planet to be within 30-40 Light Years - that's next door, cosmically speaking. And there are dozens of confirmed exoplanets within that distance, including Proxima Centauri b, which is a little over 4 Light Years away.
Yes, the concept has problems, but the Drake Equation is of interest in focusing on what we need to find out. Since it was posited, we have much more information on extra solar planets, for example.
Yep, some parts of the equation are being firmed up. But others - the later ones in the equation - are still exceptionally nebulous.
When I started looking into this in the early 1990s, many were saying that there could not possibly be any exoplanets - that our solar system was, for some reason, unique. Within a few years they were proved wrong. I expect the pessimists for the other parts of the equation to be proved wrong. Except perhaps for fc and L...
I finished my degree in astrophysics in 1994, and I don't remember anyone saying there could not possibly be exoplanets. Indeed, it was generally assumed that other stars would also have planets, even though we couldn't (yet) see them. Why would anyone think otherwise?
Human exceptionalism; see also religion.
"We are different; we are unique"
Well of course there are nutters out there who believe all sorts of things, but certainly within the scientific community there was little doubt at all that other stars would also turn out to have planets. It would have been a major surprise to say the least if they hadn't!
The stuff I was reading - and yes, some of it was scientific (*) - did show doubts.
(*) At least, from the stuff I could source at QMW's library, and from friends doing astro courses.
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
I'm sure I wouldn't understand the answer, but how the hell do they do that?
There are chemical compounds that can only be created by life.
What I can’t work out is how you identify that those compounds exist from billions of miles away
Short answer: spectroscopy
Longer answer: different atoms molecules absorb slightly different wavelengths of light and so on. So if you have light from a distant planet or solar system, you can record what specific colours are missing and work out what chemicals are present to cause those absorptions.
When I used to dive regularly with astrophysics, they often got narked at the amount spent on rocketry when there was much more science per pound/dollar from telescopes.
I think your last line has something to do with the discussion I'm having with @FeersumEnjineeya : funding is limited, and if you want to get more funding, bash other ideas. "If I say there are exoplanets, they may take funding away from my pet project to try to find them..." Hence people whose research is not into exoplanets might be less keen to rave about them.
With regard to the discovery of intelligent life, fi is, I think, the biggest unknown in the Drake Equation. You can't really extrapolate from a sample of one, but it seems to me that it's not ridiculously difficult for life to get started in a simple way given a sufficiently large and complex environment that remains relatively stable for a long period of time, such as the early Earth (though that may not be so common either). The development of intelligent life is another matter again though. It took a long time for human-level intelligence to develop on Earth, despite plenty of opportunity for it to do so, and its eventual emergence in hominids seems to have happened almost by chance.
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
I'm sure I wouldn't understand the answer, but how the hell do they do that?
There are chemical compounds that can only be created by life.
What I can’t work out is how you identify that those compounds exist from billions of miles away
Short answer: spectroscopy
Longer answer: different atoms molecules absorb slightly different wavelengths of light and so on. So if you have light from a distant planet or solar system, you can record what specific colours are missing and work out what chemicals are present to cause those absorptions.
When I used to dive regularly with astrophysics, they often got narked at the amount spent on rocketry when there was much more science per pound/dollar from telescopes.
I misread that and was surprised that you spent time naked diving with astrophysicists while discussing rockets and telescopes.
Blooming autocorrect.
But dive rather than dine is definitely a more interesting mental image.
(This time, my device wanted to use done instead of fine, which is just odd.)
I like a Rishi height gag, but that's not funny. I think it's not funny because nowhere in Rishi's Tweet did he claim to play or even be a fan of darts.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I think most of these predictions can fall at the first hurdle. A January poll could have the Lab lead into single figures, 38-29 for example. Opinium could certainly do that. The trend is not that we should expect many Tory shares in 30s soon, but the Labour % is on the slide month by month, occasional polls here and there could certainly have single digits lead.
On topic, OGH says that "It is not beyond the bound of possibility that Trump could find himself in jail in the coming months."
In the craziness of US politics at the moment, I suppose nothing is beyond the bounds, but this appears extremely unlikely in 2024.
Even the Georgia prosecutors are talking about the trial stretching beyond November, and Trump's defence seem to be getting some joy on pushing out the timeline for the federal case. The Florida case has a very favourable judge so neither the timelines nor sentence in the event of conviction present an issue. Even if convicted in any case pre-November, sentencing is a separate matter, and he'd be very likely to be free pending appeal even then.
It's just as crazy that he could be President whilst awaiting sentencing in 2024. But it's extremely unlikely he'll see the inside of a cell this year.
OGH also says, "There’s also been the recent story that he has to wear diapers and stinks." This really is an utterly appalling remark that is beneath the standards of this site and cannot go uncorrected. The word we use in this country is "nappies", not "diapers".
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
I like a Rishi height gag, but that's not funny. I think it's not funny because nowhere in Rishi's Tweet did he claim to play or even be a fan of darts.
How would he know they will be leading the sport for years to come? It’s an odd thing to say anyway because it can be read as discouraging up and coming players.
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
I'm sure I wouldn't understand the answer, but how the hell do they do that?
There are chemical compounds that can only be created by life.
What I can’t work out is how you identify that those compounds exist from billions of miles away
Short answer: spectroscopy
Longer answer: different atoms molecules absorb slightly different wavelengths of light and so on. So if you have light from a distant planet or solar system, you can record what specific colours are missing and work out what chemicals are present to cause those absorptions.
When I used to dive regularly with astrophysics, they often got narked at the amount spent on rocketry when there was much more science per pound/dollar from telescopes.
I misread that and was surprised that you spent time naked diving with astrophysicists while discussing rockets and telescopes.
Blooming autocorrect.
But dive rather than dine is definitely a more interesting mental image.
(This time, my device wanted to use done instead of fine, which is just odd.)
Actually don't worry @Benpointer, Jonathan has handily done a bit of a template!
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024 - 9% 2. Date of the next UK General Election - 14th November 3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called - Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice 4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%) - Labour win, 64 seat majority 5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems - Trump & Biden 6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner - Biden 7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024 - 3.75% 8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%) - 2.3% 9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn) - £89bn 10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64)- 61
I like a Rishi height gag, but that's not funny. I think it's not funny because nowhere in Rishi's Tweet did he claim to play or even be a fan of darts.
How would he know they will be leading the sport for years to come? It’s an odd thing to say anyway because it can be read as discouraging up and coming players.
It's a good point. We can tip him but not confidently predict.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I think most of these predictions can fall at the first hurdle. A January poll could have the Lab lead into single figures, 38-29 for example. Opinium could certainly do that. The trend is not that we should expect many Tory shares in 30s soon, but the Labour % is on the slide month by month, occasional polls here and there could certainly have single digits lead.
The Hayley/Harris match-up at 100/1 is interesting.
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
I'm sure I wouldn't understand the answer, but how the hell do they do that?
There are chemical compounds that can only be created by life.
What I can’t work out is how you identify that those compounds exist from billions of miles away
Short answer: spectroscopy
Longer answer: different atoms molecules absorb slightly different wavelengths of light and so on. So if you have light from a distant planet or solar system, you can record what specific colours are missing and work out what chemicals are present to cause those absorptions.
When I used to dive regularly with astrophysics, they often got narked at the amount spent on rocketry when there was much more science per pound/dollar from telescopes.
I misread that and was surprised that you spent time naked diving with astrophysicists while discussing rockets and telescopes.
I knew an astrophysicist when I was a student, but sadly never reached the getting naked stage.
If Trump gets elected a big part of it will be a reaction to Metoo and 'woke'. A significant part of his support is based on an existential fear, particularly amongst men, of these social movements. This could explain why Biden is so careful to avoid association with "woke" stuff. People rarely make any attempt to delve in to these issues or discuss them seriously, instead referring to it as 'racism, misogyny, toxic masculinity' which needs to be 'exposed and defeated'. But perhaps not everyone actually sees things this way, it won't be defeated, and Trump will be elected again, as the polls suggest will happen. What then?
It's gone ever so slightly off the boil here.
Not sure what it's like in the US. Wouldn't surprise me if still turned up to 11 and deeply polarised.
I like a Rishi height gag, but that's not funny. I think it's not funny because nowhere in Rishi's Tweet did he claim to play or even be a fan of darts.
How would he know they will be leading the sport for years to come? It’s an odd thing to say anyway because it can be read as discouraging up and coming players.
Yes, it's complete balls - he's saying that to try to jump on the Luke Littler bandwagon. The joke BJO highlighted in response still wasn't funny though.
Good News on Teesside. Ben Houchen International Airport has a plan! They cancelled HS2 to free up money to allow him to do a studing "into whether a[n eastern Tees crossing] tunnel is feasible.
It took him 45 minutes to drive from Redcar to Hartlepool. With his new tunnel, the trip would take "2-3 minutes". Lets assume the new road tunnel follows a direct line between the two - entirely out to sea. Its 7.3 miles. In "2-3 minutes"
I think you're being slightly unfair there. It'd be perfectly feasible to have a route that goes from the A1085 to the west of Redcar, then a tunnel under the estuary towards Seaton Carew. The tunnelled section would be under 2 miles long. And as for the time, he'd be talking about the tunnel section. Or something further upstream.
As ever, the question is one of demand: how much demand would there be for such a link? I doubt Redcar and Hartlepool generate enough traffic between them for a direct link.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
Actually don't worry @Benpointer, Jonathan has handily done a bit of a template!
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024 - 9% 2. Date of the next UK General Election - 14th November 3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called - Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice 4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%) - Labour win, 64 seat majority 5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems - Trump & Biden 6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner - Biden 7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024 - 3.75% 8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%) - 2.3% 9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn) - £89bn 10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64)- 61
The country will bite your hand off for that lot.
As I said the other day, I think the amount of deflation in import prices is being severely underestimated and it also looks like the US is growing tired of the Houthi rebels and I wouldn't be surprised if air strikes were approved before the end of next week that bomb them back into the stone ages where they belong so cargo transit routes are opened up fully again. There's no way Biden is going to allow US inflation to go up because a few wankers with rockets are firing at merchant vessels.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I think most of these predictions can fall at the first hurdle. A January poll could have the Lab lead into single figures, 38-29 for example. Opinium could certainly do that. The trend is not that we should expect many Tory shares in 30s soon, but the Labour % is on the slide month by month, occasional polls here and there could certainly have single digits lead.
The Hayley/Harris match-up at 100/1 is interesting.
I don’t regard this election as started till the two conventions are over, where Biden will have nothing but strong polling leads by then. When it comes down to it, it’s not Joe Biden the votes will go to, but the Biden administration. It’s a key part of government that gets elected, not an individual - the choice is continuation of the Biden administration, or put in a Trump administration.
If the US is really going all in on this Alien hoax, they are going to self-immolate their entire global leadership role in one go. I don't like watching cringey situations - this is an uncomfortable unfolding trainwreck. Let's hope wiser heads prevail.
I am interested that so many people think Haley might get the Rep nomination yet still lose to Biden.
Especially as Biden is not the strongest of candidates.
Is that a sign they think Trump will try to enter the race anyway and split the Republican vote?
It may well be. If so, they need to think harder.
Or not, as mug punters are always welcome to the rest of us.
Of course, Haley might lose to Biden without a Trump candidacy at the general election. If he is denied the nomination, he won't take it lying down (unless dead), and his rantings would no doubt be directed as much (or more) at her than Biden.
But those who think Trump may run as an independent need to answer three questions:
1. What causes Trump to lose the GOP nomination from such an overwhelming position now? 2. If he is defeated outright in the primaries or at the convention, why should he garner any meaningful support in the general when his base must, by definition, have already abandoned him? 3. What is the precise process and timeline by which this happens, given filing deadlines and sore-loser rules?
But you miss the point that he doesn't even need to run to take votes from Haley - write-ins and abstentions.
If he's lost the nomination to Haley, he must have lost control of the GOP and of his base - and we therefore need to ask why.
Also, Biden didn't get the biggest popular vote in US history because he enthused so many tens of millions. He was the best stop-Trump candidate. I'd expect turnout on the blue side to also be down without such a galvanizing figure as Trump as an opponent.
Is it even possible to write in another candidate using an electronic voting machine?
It varies by state and system used.
In most states, write-in candidates do still need to register as candidates to even be considered (although with a later deadline) but they can be entered and the systems do allow votes to be cast. In a handful, they don't even need to register.
However, there are some where write-ins simply aren't allowed for President, either due to the voting system in place or simply that the write-in would be discarded as a spoiled ballot rather than counted. These include Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma and South Dakota, which are all deep red and would presumably be fertile ground for Trump write-ins were it allowed. They also include the swing states of Nevada and New Mexico, as well as South Carolina (Haley's home state so you'd assume slightly less fertile for a Trump write-in should she be the official name on the ballot).
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
Also, Trump's record wasn't *that* bad, in isolation. The economy grew strongly because he borrowed and spent like there was no tomorrow, and while his handling of covid was a mess, a lot lay out of his hands, with state powers, and lots of other countries didn't do much better. We can argue whether that was because or despite Trump but that's a debate for us. Besides, plenty of Trump supporters are covid conspiracy theorists whose views have to be factored into any analysis.
Good News on Teesside. Ben Houchen International Airport has a plan! They cancelled HS2 to free up money to allow him to do a studing "into whether a[n eastern Tees crossing] tunnel is feasible.
It took him 45 minutes to drive from Redcar to Hartlepool. With his new tunnel, the trip would take "2-3 minutes". Lets assume the new road tunnel follows a direct line between the two - entirely out to sea. Its 7.3 miles. In "2-3 minutes"
I think you're being slightly unfair there. It'd be perfectly feasible to have a route that goes from the A1085 to the west of Redcar, then a tunnel under the estuary towards Seaton Carew. The tunnelled section would be under 2 miles long. And as for the time, he'd be talking about the tunnel section. Or something further upstream.
As ever, the question is one of demand: how much demand would there be for such a link? I doubt Redcar and Hartlepool generate enough traffic between them for a direct link.
Looking at a map, I'd think an updated crossing nearer the transporter bridge would make more sense; but a study would discern traffic flows.
An eastern crossing? A Good Idea. A journey time of "2-3 minutes" - laughable. That's literally his claim on the tweet. Claiming HS2 was cancelled to build it, then saying they need to do a study (so actually there is nothing to fund) - pityful.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
Also, Trump's record wasn't *that* bad, in isolation. The economy grew strongly because he borrowed and spent like there was no tomorrow, and while his handling of covid was a mess, a lot lay out of his hands, with state powers, and lots of other countries didn't do much better. We can argue whether that was because or despite Trump but that's a debate for us. Besides, plenty of Trump supporters are covid conspiracy theorists whose views have to be factored into any analysis.
Tbf the US can do this to a greater extent than anywhere else because when push & shove come, the main global religion is still divine faith in the US dollar - particularly in hard times.
I am interested that so many people think Haley might get the Rep nomination yet still lose to Biden.
Especially as Biden is not the strongest of candidates.
Is that a sign they think Trump will try to enter the race anyway and split the Republican vote?
It may well be. If so, they need to think harder.
Or not, as mug punters are always welcome to the rest of us.
Of course, Haley might lose to Biden without a Trump candidacy at the general election. If he is denied the nomination, he won't take it lying down (unless dead), and his rantings would no doubt be directed as much (or more) at her than Biden.
But those who think Trump may run as an independent need to answer three questions:
1. What causes Trump to lose the GOP nomination from such an overwhelming position now? 2. If he is defeated outright in the primaries or at the convention, why should he garner any meaningful support in the general when his base must, by definition, have already abandoned him? 3. What is the precise process and timeline by which this happens, given filing deadlines and sore-loser rules?
Trump could be prevented from being on the ballot because he was an insurrectionist.
If so, he can't be President - even as an independent. But his ego might LOVE the idea of a massive write-in campaign, just to let The Swamp know what they think. So 10% of votes write in Trump as President - enough to give Biden a resounding EC win.
Insurrectionists can be president (and hold any other office), if Congress lifts the ban on them. It's a contingent rather than absolute bar.
It could only be overturned by a two-thirds vote of both House and Senate, though, and that just isn't going to happen. In the very unlikely event of Trump being declared ineligible and, despite being off the ballot in many states, still winning, Democrats will easily have the numbers to block it even if GOP control both chambers (which is perfectly possible, but not with super-majorities).
That's a political (and betting) consideration though, not a legal one.
Put simply, detailed analysis of each state's laws would need to be undertaken to determine just how states would block access.
It is not against the constitution for Electors to vote for a (currently) ineligible candidate and indeed the constitution makes provision for precisely that scenario - and for one whereby a currently ineligible candidate subsequently becomes eligible. If Trump is ruled an insurrectionist then as there is such a path to eligibility to serve, it's not as black-and-white a situation as, say, a foreign-born national.
I am interested that so many people think Haley might get the Rep nomination yet still lose to Biden.
Especially as Biden is not the strongest of candidates.
Is that a sign they think Trump will try to enter the race anyway and split the Republican vote?
Incidentally, there's been some discussion on here about 'sore loser laws' and their possible impact on a spoiler run if Trump fails in the primaries.
I know @SeaShantyIrish2 takes the view they wouldn't be a problem for him, and he knows more about the US system than I do. However, there are other voices that disagree:
The summary of that article is that in 28 states the authors consider it would be impossible for a losing candidate in the primaries to mount an independent campaign.
What's also interesting is that most of these states are actually Republican, which suggests even if Trump lost and ran where he could, it wouldn't necessarily hamper a Republican by splitting the vote in red states.
I think it's moot though. At this moment the only way he's not the candidate is if he's tossed from the ballot by the Supreme Court or in jail.
The first is the proverbial snowflake's chance in hell, and the second is possible but especially given the procedural games his attorneys are playing, not notably likely before the Republican National Convention in July.
One aspect I'm only just catching up on is the MAGA activities of Mrs Clarence Thomas - Ginni Thomas, via a number of foundations she has set, and through which she has lobbied the Supreme Court on - where her husband is a Justice.
She is a full on supporter of the Jan 6 insurrection, and texted Trump's Co-defendants urging overturning of the election.
Actually don't worry @Benpointer, Jonathan has handily done a bit of a template!
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024 - 9% 2. Date of the next UK General Election - 14th November 3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called - Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice 4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%) - Labour win, 64 seat majority 5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems - Trump & Biden 6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner - Biden 7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024 - 3.75% 8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%) - 2.3% 9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn) - £89bn 10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64)- 61
The country will bite your hand off for that lot.
As I said the other day, I think the amount of deflation in import prices is being severely underestimated and it also looks like the US is growing tired of the Houthi rebels and I wouldn't be surprised if air strikes were approved before the end of next week that bomb them back into the stone ages where they belong so cargo transit routes are opened up fully again. There's no way Biden is going to allow US inflation to go up because a few wankers with rockets are firing at merchant vessels.
How much US export/import goes through the gulf of Aden ? Isn't this more Europe's problem (And ours) rather than the US ?
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
With regard to the discovery of intelligent life, fi is, I think, the biggest unknown in the Drake Equation. You can't really extrapolate from a sample of one, but it seems to me that it's not ridiculously difficult for life to get started in a simple way given a sufficiently large and complex environment that remains relatively stable for a long period of time, such as the early Earth (though that may not be so common either). The development of intelligent life is another matter again though. It took a long time for human-level intelligence to develop on Earth, despite plenty of opportunity for it to do so, and its eventual emergence in hominids seems to have happened almost by chance.
Maybe. But how life starts and also the causal link between particular configurations of matter and consciousness actually remain remarkably mysterious to us. With the latter, we can't even imagine what would count as a causal link, as empiricism doesn't really count the subjectivity of first person awareness as something it can analyse at all, let alone account for its development within the laws of physics.
Even if Trump were convicted and jailed he would still run as a third party candidate in those states he was still able to get on the ballot against the official GOP nominee. As those states would mostly be red or swing states the main beneficiary would of course be Biden
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
Also, Trump's record wasn't *that* bad, in isolation. The economy grew strongly because he borrowed and spent like there was no tomorrow, and while his handling of covid was a mess, a lot lay out of his hands, with state powers, and lots of other countries didn't do much better. We can argue whether that was because or despite Trump but that's a debate for us. Besides, plenty of Trump supporters are covid conspiracy theorists whose views have to be factored into any analysis.
It’s not often I disagree with any of your posts David, but I’m convinced, not least from the Lincoln Projects subtle messaging, that Trump did not deliver his Trumpesque promises, making America Great Again, delivering apple pie on Sundays with sunlit uplands. He’s too much of a shambolic, disorganised, all over tge shop disrupter to be a true shaper and deliver an agenda.
The only plus from a GOP point of view was the number of judges at all levels The Donald & Mitch Show appointed.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has been done they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
Also, Trump's record wasn't *that* bad, in isolation. The economy grew strongly because he borrowed and spent like there was no tomorrow, and while his handling of covid was a mess, a lot lay out of his hands, with state powers, and lots of other countries didn't do much better. We can argue whether that was because or despite Trump but that's a debate for us. Besides, plenty of Trump supporters are covid conspiracy theorists whose views have to be factored into any analysis.
It’s not often I disagree with any of your posts David, but I’m convinced, not least from the Lincoln Projects subtle messaging, that Trump did not deliver his Trumpesque promises, making America Great Again, delivering apple pie on Sundays with sunlit uplands. He’s too much of a shambolic, disorganised, all over tge shop disrupter to be a true shaper and deliver an agenda.
The only plus from a GOP point of view was the number of judges at all levels The Donald & Mitch Show appointed.
Plus the Paul Ryan tax bill. Even though they haven't won a stable House majority since.
Actually don't worry @Benpointer, Jonathan has handily done a bit of a template!
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024 - 9% 2. Date of the next UK General Election - 14th November 3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called - Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice 4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%) - Labour win, 64 seat majority 5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems - Trump & Biden 6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner - Biden 7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024 - 3.75% 8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%) - 2.3% 9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn) - £89bn 10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64)- 61
The country will bite your hand off for that lot.
As I said the other day, I think the amount of deflation in import prices is being severely underestimated and it also looks like the US is growing tired of the Houthi rebels and I wouldn't be surprised if air strikes were approved before the end of next week that bomb them back into the stone ages where they belong so cargo transit routes are opened up fully again. There's no way Biden is going to allow US inflation to go up because a few wankers with rockets are firing at merchant vessels.
How much US export/import goes through the gulf of Aden ? Isn't this more Europe's problem (And ours) rather than the US ?
Not a lot, but rising inflation in Europe will have a knock on effect for the US and it's pushing oil prices up which is unhelpful for the US too.
I am interested that so many people think Haley might get the Rep nomination yet still lose to Biden.
Especially as Biden is not the strongest of candidates.
Is that a sign they think Trump will try to enter the race anyway and split the Republican vote?
It may well be. If so, they need to think harder.
Or not, as mug punters are always welcome to the rest of us.
Of course, Haley might lose to Biden without a Trump candidacy at the general election. If he is denied the nomination, he won't take it lying down (unless dead), and his rantings would no doubt be directed as much (or more) at her than Biden.
But those who think Trump may run as an independent need to answer three questions:
1. What causes Trump to lose the GOP nomination from such an overwhelming position now? 2. If he is defeated outright in the primaries or at the convention, why should he garner any meaningful support in the general when his base must, by definition, have already abandoned him? 3. What is the precise process and timeline by which this happens, given filing deadlines and sore-loser rules?
Trump could be prevented from being on the ballot because he was an insurrectionist.
If so, he can't be President - even as an independent. But his ego might LOVE the idea of a massive write-in campaign, just to let The Swamp know what they think. So 10% of votes write in Trump as President - enough to give Biden a resounding EC win.
Insurrectionists can be president (and hold any other office), if Congress lifts the ban on them. It's a contingent rather than absolute bar.
It could only be overturned by a two-thirds vote of both House and Senate, though, and that just isn't going to happen. In the very unlikely event of Trump being declared ineligible and, despite being off the ballot in many states, still winning, Democrats will easily have the numbers to block it even if GOP control both chambers (which is perfectly possible, but not with super-majorities).
That's a political (and betting) consideration though, not a legal one.
Put simply, detailed analysis of each state's laws would need to be undertaken to determine just how states would block access.
It is not against the constitution for Electors to vote for a (currently) ineligible candidate and indeed the constitution makes provision for precisely that scenario - and for one whereby a currently ineligible candidate subsequently becomes eligible. If Trump is ruled an insurrectionist then as there is such a path to eligibility to serve, it's not as black-and-white a situation as, say, a foreign-born national.
I agree that the technical legal position is that, if Trump were found to be ineligible to be President due to engaging in insurrection, he could be un-disqualified by two-thirds votes of both House and Senate. But, in practical terms, it isn't worth giving a moment's thought to as the Democrats will have over one-third of the members of both so there is zero chance of it happening.
In terms of electors, I think that's a red herring. Yes, they could vote for a person who had engaged in insurrection, or an Estonian, or a three year old. All those people would be ineligible and constitutionally incapable of serving as President. You're right that a two-thirds vote of both House and Senate could technically heal that for the insurrectionist, but not for the Estonian or toddler. But, as I say, there is zero chance of such a vote passing in the unlikely event of SCOTUS finding Trump to be ineligible in the first place.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
+1 the problem for the Tories is that the Red Wall are now discovering (once again) that the things the Tory party promised them in 2019 haven’t been delivered. The problem a lot of Tory MPs will have is that your promised us this (even if they didn’t actually) and it hasn’t been delivered
Rumours that astronomers have found “bio signatures” indicating non human life on an exoplanet
Almost inevitable; IMV there is certain to be life elsewhere, and we're getting better at detecting exoplanet atmospheres, and at understanding what possible life markers might be. But there's orders of magnitude of complexity between 'life' (which might just be bacteria) and aliens buzzing drunken folks in the Midwest.
The research now needs validating. As was seen with the Phosphine on Venus research four or five years ago, claims are very different from evidence.
(The Venus example was quite funny. It was announced that Phosphine had been detected in meaningful quantities in its atmosphere. Mistakes were found in the research that reduced the quantity, but still to meaningful amounts. Many papers were then published arguing against the original research. And the latest is... yes, there is Phosphine in Venus's atmosphere. It's almost as if the wrong person/group discovered it...)
Fair
It will, nonetheless, be a profound moment. The moment when we can say “we are not alone” - even if our only neighbours are a small colony of brainless airborne Protozoa
It will also finally provide at least the first bits of data to the "Probability of life emerging on given planets" question, as our current sample size is one. Especially if it is replicated in multiple locations.
(although the question of panspermia, especially if it is from the nearer stars, might also be open at that point).
The price on Trump winning will change as soon as a courtroom wordfight is shown on live TV between himself and a prosecutor or judge.
This is the guy who can't cope with being told he has small hands.
He can't say, for example, "I think I took the best decision given the difficult circumstances and the amount of information available at the time", either. He can only say he made the greatest phone call to Georgia that anyone ever made, a truly beautiful phone call. What defence attorney would want such a headbanger as his client? You'd do your utmost to stop him being called to the witness box. Courts work differently from wrestling, reality TV, and politics.
Trump is not going to look good when he's told to shut his mouth or get taken down to the cells, or when he's told "Answer the question. I'll repeat it - you lied, didn't you?"
Does any USpol maven here know when this is likely to be? Possibly for the Dems later will be better than sooner?
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I think most of these predictions can fall at the first hurdle. A January poll could have the Lab lead into single figures, 38-29 for example. Opinium could certainly do that. The trend is not that we should expect many Tory shares in 30s soon, but the Labour % is on the slide month by month, occasional polls here and there could certainly have single digits lead.
“ I think most of these predictions can fall at the first hurdle. A January poll could have the Lab lead into single figures, 38-29 for example. Opinium could certainly do that. The trend is not that we should expect many Tory shares in 30s soon, but the Labour % is on the slide month by month, occasional polls here and there could certainly have single digits lead.‘
I’m not predicting a single digit Lab lead in January, so don’t bet on one, only I wouldn’t be surprised if there was one owing to weakness in Labours share in the trend.
In all post Christmas springs in this parliament the Tories have gathered polling strengths, increased the leads or closed the deficits, I expect the trend to continue this year. However, once we get back into summer and autumn, I expect Tories to decline in polls again.
For the full bantz, PB needs to know that UFO TwiX believes the revelation of a an exoplanetary biosignature in 2024 (which now looks quite likely given the various signals from different UK space bods) is merely Stage 1 of Disclosure
It’s the easiest bit to sell, of course (in this theory). So there are bugs on a planet seven billion miles away? Hey ho. Whatever. It’s profound (we’re not alone) yet also trivial (bugs, a billion miles away, meh)
Next will come revelation of a techno signature. That we have received signals from apparently intelligent life Out There Somewhere
Then comes the kicker. We have evidence of non human intelligent life visiting or existing on Earth…
For the purposes of clarity I am only predicting, as my official black swan, the first
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
For most Brexit voters, Brexit happened when we left the EU. They were annoyed, following the Leave vote in mid 2016 that it hadn't happened by late 2019 because they felt that showed a lack of respect for their decision, and voted for Johnson as the best way to end the impasse.
People just aren't going to be voting this year, in significant numbers, on the extent of economic divergence necessary to achieve Brexit benefits. It has simply lost its salience - as demonstrated by the various by-election gains in solidly Leave seats by both Labour and the Lib Dems.
Maybe you think people SHOULD vote on the basis you say, but they really won't in meaningful numbers.
If there is life elsewhere, I can see problems with communication. After sending off an invite to a welcome party, the RSVP might take a couple of billion years to arrive.
It's not quite that bad. AIUI to detect atmospheres you need the planet to be (relatively) close - the further away it is, the harder it is to detect, aside from flukes like gravitational lensing. And the nearer it is, the better the data and conclusions. Therefore I'd expect such a planet to be within 30-40 Light Years - that's next door, cosmically speaking. And there are dozens of confirmed exoplanets within that distance, including Proxima Centauri b, which is a little over 4 Light Years away.
Yes, the concept has problems, but the Drake Equation is of interest in focusing on what we need to find out. Since it was posited, we have much more information on extra solar planets, for example.
Yep, some parts of the equation are being firmed up. But others - the later ones in the equation - are still exceptionally nebulous.
When I started looking into this in the early 1990s, many were saying that there could not possibly be any exoplanets - that our solar system was, for some reason, unique. Within a few years they were proved wrong. I expect the pessimists for the other parts of the equation to be proved wrong. Except perhaps for fc and L...
I finished my degree in astrophysics in 1994, and I don't remember anyone saying there could not possibly be exoplanets. Indeed, it was generally assumed that other stars would also have planets, even though we couldn't (yet) see them. Why would anyone think otherwise?
Concur. One of the third-year undergraduate projects we could do in my physics course at Imperial (1991-1994) was to assist teams searching for exoplanets. Basically doing the scut-work.
Actually don't worry @Benpointer, Jonathan has handily done a bit of a template!
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024 - 9% 2. Date of the next UK General Election - 14th November 3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called - Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice 4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%) - Labour win, 64 seat majority 5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems - Trump & Biden 6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner - Biden 7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024 - 3.75% 8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%) - 2.3% 9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn) - £89bn 10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64)- 61
The country will bite your hand off for that lot.
As I said the other day, I think the amount of deflation in import prices is being severely underestimated and it also looks like the US is growing tired of the Houthi rebels and I wouldn't be surprised if air strikes were approved before the end of next week that bomb them back into the stone ages where they belong so cargo transit routes are opened up fully again. There's no way Biden is going to allow US inflation to go up because a few wankers with rockets are firing at merchant vessels.
How much US export/import goes through the gulf of Aden ? Isn't this more Europe's problem (And ours) rather than the US ?
Not a lot, but rising inflation in Europe will have a knock on effect for the US and it's pushing oil prices up which is unhelpful for the US too.
I like a Rishi height gag, but that's not funny. I think it's not funny because nowhere in Rishi's Tweet did he claim to play or even be a fan of darts.
How would he know they will be leading the sport for years to come? It’s an odd thing to say anyway because it can be read as discouraging up and coming players.
Yes, it's complete balls - he's saying that to try to jump on the Luke Littler bandwagon. The joke BJO highlighted in response still wasn't funny though.
Getting a ‘how do you do, fellow darts fans’ vibe from a few quarters. R4 was virtually orgasming (as is its wont) over the arrers this morning. Even if Littler turns out to be a Raducanu-esque flash in the pan they’ll be reporting on his pub league performances in a couple of years time. Littler’s local darts team is called the Bogey Flickers I believe, which is a better joke I think.
With regard to the discovery of intelligent life, fi is, I think, the biggest unknown in the Drake Equation. You can't really extrapolate from a sample of one, but it seems to me that it's not ridiculously difficult for life to get started in a simple way given a sufficiently large and complex environment that remains relatively stable for a long period of time, such as the early Earth (though that may not be so common either). The development of intelligent life is another matter again though. It took a long time for human-level intelligence to develop on Earth, despite plenty of opportunity for it to do so, and its eventual emergence in hominids seems to have happened almost by chance.
I do recall seeing a theory that for a planet to be stable enough to support an evolutionary chain long enough to result in intelligence, an exceptionally large moon might be necessary. The tidal effects would stabilise the spin axis (Mars, in comparison to Earth, apparently had significant axial tilt changes multiple times in just the past few million years). Our Moon is exceptionally large for a planet our size - in our current knowledge - and the course of events that led to its formation (as we understand it) were quite freakish.
I also recall Asimov (who was quite scientifically sharp) speculating that the tidal effects of such a large Moon on flexing the Earth's crust may have led to heavier elements (such as uranium) being unusually concentrated near the surface and possibly contributing to the mutation rate that is necessary for evolution in "shorter" timescales (and perhaps even to tectonic plate formation, which may be necessary for life). No idea how solid this speculation may be, but those are the best argument for intelligent life being extremely rare - and they are VERY speculative.
Yeah. I watch many of her videos. She's a very good explainer, and an expert in Black Holes. But a prediction is very different from an announcement...
(1) ESA astronaut Tim Peake is now the third space scientist/expert in the past few days, all in the UK, to hint that the Webb telescope may have found a potential biosignature in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. NOT the previous K2-18 b? h/t @DaiDdraig 🤔
I'm sure I wouldn't understand the answer, but how the hell do they do that?
There are chemical compounds that can only be created by life.
What I can’t work out is how you identify that those compounds exist from billions of miles away
Yep that is what I meant. It is hard enough to discover a planet from that distance. I understand how they do that.
As a planet eclipses another star, like how the moon or venus eclipses the sun, you can measure how much the intensity of the light drops. If you measure this as a function of wavelength (e.g., the colours of the rainbow) at high spectral resolution, you can tease out the absorption spectrum of the atmosphere of the planet. This tells you what the atmosphere consists of.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has been done they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Brexit in many of their minds hasn't been done because immigration continues apace.
It doesn't matter much what voters say to pollsters months or years ahead of an election, as the 2017 general election so clearly showed. Local elections don't matter much either. [*]
* Except for the London mayoral election. Sunak or whoever is Tory leader in the spring will be nuts not to call the GE for the same day.
For the full bantz, PB needs to know that UFO TwiX believes the revelation of a an exoplanetary biosignature in 2024 (which now looks quite likely given the various signals from different UK space bods) is merely Stage 1 of Disclosure
It’s the easiest bit to sell, of course (in this theory). So there are bugs on a planet seven billion miles away? Hey ho. Whatever. It’s profound (we’re not alone) yet also trivial (bugs, a billion miles away, meh)
Next will come revelation of a techno signature. That we have received signals from apparently intelligent life Out There Somewhere
Then comes the kicker. We have evidence of non human intelligent life visiting or existing on Earth…
For the purposes of clarity I am only predicting, as my official black swan, the first
Experience suggests that a correct Black Swan prediction needs to be slightly more precise in one respect. The possibility of a contested or uncertain claim WRT exoplanet biosignature is significantly more likely than one which is more or less universally accepted by all the potential peer reviewers.
The second is a Black Swan. The first, in general isn't. Who shall be the judge of what counts? Is it 'peer reviewed in Nature or similar' or something less (or more) than this?
If Trump gets elected a big part of it will be a reaction to Metoo and 'woke'. A significant part of his support is based on an existential fear, particularly amongst men, of these social movements. This could explain why Biden is so careful to avoid association with "woke" stuff. People rarely make any attempt to delve in to these issues or discuss them seriously, instead referring to it as 'racism, misogyny, toxic masculinity' which needs to be 'exposed and defeated'. But perhaps not everyone actually sees things this way, it won't be defeated, and Trump will be elected again, as the polls suggest will happen. What then?
It's gone ever so slightly off the boil here.
Not sure what it's like in the US. Wouldn't surprise me if still turned up to 11 and deeply polarised.
Starmer has a good perception about all this, not sure about the rest of the Labour party though.
With regard to the discovery of intelligent life, fi is, I think, the biggest unknown in the Drake Equation. You can't really extrapolate from a sample of one, but it seems to me that it's not ridiculously difficult for life to get started in a simple way given a sufficiently large and complex environment that remains relatively stable for a long period of time, such as the early Earth (though that may not be so common either). The development of intelligent life is another matter again though. It took a long time for human-level intelligence to develop on Earth, despite plenty of opportunity for it to do so, and its eventual emergence in hominids seems to have happened almost by chance.
I do recall seeing a theory that for a planet to be stable enough to support an evolutionary chain long enough to result in intelligence, an exceptionally large moon might be necessary. The tidal effects would stabilise the spin axis (Mars, in comparison to Earth, apparently had significant axial tilt changes multiple times in just the past few million years). Our Moon is exceptionally large for a planet our size - in our current knowledge - and the course of events that led to its formation (as we understand it) were quite freakish.
I also recall Asimov (who was quite scientifically sharp) speculating that the tidal effects of such a large Moon on flexing the Earth's crust may have led to heavier elements (such as uranium) being unusually concentrated near the surface and possibly contributing to the mutation rate that is necessary for evolution in "shorter" timescales (and perhaps even to tectonic plate formation, which may be necessary for life). No idea how solid this speculation may be, but those are the best argument for intelligent life being extremely rare - and they are VERY speculative.
But it’s all still anthropocentric in the extreme
This is how intelligent life as we understand and which is really really like us might evolve. Intelligent life - sentient gas clouds, really smart hives of silicon based amoebae - might evolve in ways we don’t understand and - more importantly - might never be able to understand no more than a wasp can ever understand Mozart, even if you lock it in a room with a chamber orchestra forever playing the 40th symphony
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has been done they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Brexit in many of their minds hasn't been done because immigration continues apace.
It doesn't matter much what voters say to pollsters months or years ahead of an election, as the 2017 general election so clearly showed. Local elections don't matter much either. [*]
* Except for the London mayoral election. Sunak or whoever is Tory leader in the spring will be nuts not to call the GE for the same day.
Khan will win anyway, Sunak is not going to cut 6 months from his premiership to slightly increase Susan Hall's vote. Who won the 2017 general election? The Tories, even if closer than expected.
Of course the government recently announced measures to raise the threshold for migrants to £38k to get a visa to work here, both EU and non EU, unless in a shortage area
With regard to the discovery of intelligent life, fi is, I think, the biggest unknown in the Drake Equation. You can't really extrapolate from a sample of one, but it seems to me that it's not ridiculously difficult for life to get started in a simple way given a sufficiently large and complex environment that remains relatively stable for a long period of time, such as the early Earth (though that may not be so common either). The development of intelligent life is another matter again though. It took a long time for human-level intelligence to develop on Earth, despite plenty of opportunity for it to do so, and its eventual emergence in hominids seems to have happened almost by chance.
I do recall seeing a theory that for a planet to be stable enough to support an evolutionary chain long enough to result in intelligence, an exceptionally large moon might be necessary. The tidal effects would stabilise the spin axis (Mars, in comparison to Earth, apparently had significant axial tilt changes multiple times in just the past few million years). Our Moon is exceptionally large for a planet our size - in our current knowledge - and the course of events that led to its formation (as we understand it) were quite freakish.
I also recall Asimov (who was quite scientifically sharp) speculating that the tidal effects of such a large Moon on flexing the Earth's crust may have led to heavier elements (such as uranium) being unusually concentrated near the surface and possibly contributing to the mutation rate that is necessary for evolution in "shorter" timescales (and perhaps even to tectonic plate formation, which may be necessary for life). No idea how solid this speculation may be, but those are the best argument for intelligent life being extremely rare - and they are VERY speculative.
There are theories that plate tectonics is also a great help towards life, and for that you need a silicate-rich crust.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has been done they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Brexit in many of their minds hasn't been done because immigration continues apace.
It doesn't matter much what voters say to pollsters months or years ahead of an election, as the 2017 general election so clearly showed. Local elections don't matter much either. [*]
* Except for the London mayoral election. Sunak or whoever is Tory leader in the spring will be nuts not to call the GE for the same day.
Khan will win anyway, Sunak is not going to cut 6 months from his premiership to slightly increase Susan Hall's vote. Who won the 2017 general election? The Tories, even if closer than expected.
Of course the government recently announced measures to raise the threshold for migrants to £38k to get a visa to work here, both EU and non EU, unless in a shortage area
He might not get a choice.
If May local results are terrible, as we all expect them to be, there is a chance the backbenchers roll the dice again....
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
Brexit was done in 2020, we left the single market in 2021. Now even Starmer says he won't take the UK back into the EEA let alone reverse Brexit.
The redwallers got the Brexit they voted for in 2019, now even Starmer Labour won't reverse Brexit they will mostly vote Labour again
The price on Trump winning will change as soon as a courtroom wordfight is shown on live TV between himself and a prosecutor or judge.
This is the guy who can't cope with being told he has small hands.
He can't say, for example, "I think I took the best decision given the difficult circumstances and the amount of information available at the time", either. He can only say he made the greatest phone call to Georgia that anyone ever made, a truly beautiful phone call. What defence attorney would want such a headbanger as his client? You'd do your utmost to stop him being called to the witness box. Courts work differently from wrestling, reality TV, and politics.
Trump is not going to look good when he's told to shut his mouth or get taken down to the cells, or when he's told "Answer the question. I'll repeat it - you lied, didn't you?"
Does any USpol maven here know when this is likely to be? Possibly for the Dems later will be better than sooner?
An oddity of modern politics is the extremely extreme gap between the extent to which all politics, especially high level, gets away with not answering questions at all - even easy ones but especially hard ones, and even in parliament - as compared with how it is in the witness box even in the most trivial of cases.
If I could make a single change in parliament it would be for the speaker's role to include that of requiring questions to be answered in the same way a judge does, and not backing down until he/she has done so.
Parliament is our highest court. Failing to answer a question should be as great an offence as a lie direct.
For the full bantz, PB needs to know that UFO TwiX believes the revelation of a an exoplanetary biosignature in 2024 (which now looks quite likely given the various signals from different UK space bods) is merely Stage 1 of Disclosure
It’s the easiest bit to sell, of course (in this theory). So there are bugs on a planet seven billion miles away? Hey ho. Whatever. It’s profound (we’re not alone) yet also trivial (bugs, a billion miles away, meh)
Next will come revelation of a techno signature. That we have received signals from apparently intelligent life Out There Somewhere
Then comes the kicker. We have evidence of non human intelligent life visiting or existing on Earth…
For the purposes of clarity I am only predicting, as my official black swan, the first
Experience suggests that a correct Black Swan prediction needs to be slightly more precise in one respect. The possibility of a contested or uncertain claim WRT exoplanet biosignature is significantly more likely than one which is more or less universally accepted by all the potential peer reviewers.
The second is a Black Swan. The first, in general isn't. Who shall be the judge of what counts? Is it 'peer reviewed in Nature or similar' or something less (or more) than this?
It’s a fair question
The hint is that this will appear, peer reviewed, in a major scientific journal, as dramatic evidence of exoplanetary life
That doesn’t mean uncontested but it means the scientific consensus is Yeah, probably life
For the full bantz, PB needs to know that UFO TwiX believes the revelation of a an exoplanetary biosignature in 2024 (which now looks quite likely given the various signals from different UK space bods) is merely Stage 1 of Disclosure
It’s the easiest bit to sell, of course (in this theory). So there are bugs on a planet seven billion miles away? Hey ho. Whatever. It’s profound (we’re not alone) yet also trivial (bugs, a billion miles away, meh)
Next will come revelation of a techno signature. That we have received signals from apparently intelligent life Out There Somewhere
Then comes the kicker. We have evidence of non human intelligent life visiting or existing on Earth…
For the purposes of clarity I am only predicting, as my official black swan, the first
Experience suggests that a correct Black Swan prediction needs to be slightly more precise in one respect. The possibility of a contested or uncertain claim WRT exoplanet biosignature is significantly more likely than one which is more or less universally accepted by all the potential peer reviewers.
The second is a Black Swan. The first, in general isn't. Who shall be the judge of what counts? Is it 'peer reviewed in Nature or similar' or something less (or more) than this?
It’s a fair question
The hint is that this will appear, peer reviewed, in a major scientific journal, as dramatic evidence of exoplanetary life
That doesn’t mean uncontested but it means the scientific consensus is Yeah, probably life
With regard to the discovery of intelligent life, fi is, I think, the biggest unknown in the Drake Equation. You can't really extrapolate from a sample of one, but it seems to me that it's not ridiculously difficult for life to get started in a simple way given a sufficiently large and complex environment that remains relatively stable for a long period of time, such as the early Earth (though that may not be so common either). The development of intelligent life is another matter again though. It took a long time for human-level intelligence to develop on Earth, despite plenty of opportunity for it to do so, and its eventual emergence in hominids seems to have happened almost by chance.
I do recall seeing a theory that for a planet to be stable enough to support an evolutionary chain long enough to result in intelligence, an exceptionally large moon might be necessary. The tidal effects would stabilise the spin axis (Mars, in comparison to Earth, apparently had significant axial tilt changes multiple times in just the past few million years). Our Moon is exceptionally large for a planet our size - in our current knowledge - and the course of events that led to its formation (as we understand it) were quite freakish.
I also recall Asimov (who was quite scientifically sharp) speculating that the tidal effects of such a large Moon on flexing the Earth's crust may have led to heavier elements (such as uranium) being unusually concentrated near the surface and possibly contributing to the mutation rate that is necessary for evolution in "shorter" timescales (and perhaps even to tectonic plate formation, which may be necessary for life). No idea how solid this speculation may be, but those are the best argument for intelligent life being extremely rare - and they are VERY speculative.
But it’s all still anthropocentric in the extreme
This is how intelligent life as we understand and which is really really like us might evolve. Intelligent life - sentient gas clouds, really smart hives of silicon based amoebae - might evolve in ways we don’t understand and - more importantly - might never be able to understand no more than a wasp can ever understand Mozart, even if you lock it in a room with a chamber orchestra forever playing the 40th symphony
Agreed.
As for the moon being large, it's not just that but the fact that it is JUST the right size, given the radius of its orbit, to block out the sunlight VERY occasionally, for a few minutes, and only on small strips of the planet's surface. I'm not saying this is necessary for the evolution of life, but it could be true that it played a role in the evolution of terrestrial life. Never mind the mechanism. It's just weird. (It might be enough to drive a mushroom completely mental .)
Similarly, as regards human cultural evolution, it could have been the Sun going out for a few minutes that really got the apes' cosmo-cogitation going in a certain part of Africa, or maybe the cogitation of a couple of outcast nomads near what became Gobleki Tepe, working at a much deeper level than the sussing out of the seasons or the rhythm of the flooding of the Nile. Imagine being able to predict solar eclipses and how it would affect and reinforce how you saw the cosmos and also your attitude towards migration.
For the full bantz, PB needs to know that UFO TwiX believes the revelation of a an exoplanetary biosignature in 2024 (which now looks quite likely given the various signals from different UK space bods) is merely Stage 1 of Disclosure
It’s the easiest bit to sell, of course (in this theory). So there are bugs on a planet seven billion miles away? Hey ho. Whatever. It’s profound (we’re not alone) yet also trivial (bugs, a billion miles away, meh)
Next will come revelation of a techno signature. That we have received signals from apparently intelligent life Out There Somewhere
Then comes the kicker. We have evidence of non human intelligent life visiting or existing on Earth…
For the purposes of clarity I am only predicting, as my official black swan, the first
Experience suggests that a correct Black Swan prediction needs to be slightly more precise in one respect. The possibility of a contested or uncertain claim WRT exoplanet biosignature is significantly more likely than one which is more or less universally accepted by all the potential peer reviewers.
The second is a Black Swan. The first, in general isn't. Who shall be the judge of what counts? Is it 'peer reviewed in Nature or similar' or something less (or more) than this?
The 'phosphine in Venus's atmosphere' was published in Nature Astronomy, which I believe is part of the Nature group, and I think was peer-reviewed. But it has proven to be very controversial.
For the full bantz, PB needs to know that UFO TwiX believes the revelation of a an exoplanetary biosignature in 2024 (which now looks quite likely given the various signals from different UK space bods) is merely Stage 1 of Disclosure
It’s the easiest bit to sell, of course (in this theory). So there are bugs on a planet seven billion miles away? Hey ho. Whatever. It’s profound (we’re not alone) yet also trivial (bugs, a billion miles away, meh)
Next will come revelation of a techno signature. That we have received signals from apparently intelligent life Out There Somewhere
Then comes the kicker. We have evidence of non human intelligent life visiting or existing on Earth…
For the purposes of clarity I am only predicting, as my official black swan, the first
Good News on Teesside. Ben Houchen International Airport has a plan! They cancelled HS2 to free up money to allow him to do a studing "into whether a[n eastern Tees crossing] tunnel is feasible.
It took him 45 minutes to drive from Redcar to Hartlepool. With his new tunnel, the trip would take "2-3 minutes". Lets assume the new road tunnel follows a direct line between the two - entirely out to sea. Its 7.3 miles. In "2-3 minutes"
I think you're being slightly unfair there. It'd be perfectly feasible to have a route that goes from the A1085 to the west of Redcar, then a tunnel under the estuary towards Seaton Carew. The tunnelled section would be under 2 miles long. And as for the time, he'd be talking about the tunnel section. Or something further upstream.
As ever, the question is one of demand: how much demand would there be for such a link? I doubt Redcar and Hartlepool generate enough traffic between them for a direct link.
Looking at a map, I'd think an updated crossing nearer the transporter bridge would make more sense; but a study would discern traffic flows.
Sorry to go back to this a moment but I have just remembered the original Tees Tunnel plan. A flyover at the end of the A174 expressway to link to the A1053 ("Tees Tunnel Approach) and then a tunnel under the docks to Seal Sands and beyond.
BHIA mentions the freeport in his commentary, and this was originally to link various areas of it together.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
Brexit was done in 2020, we left the single market in 2021. Now even Starmer says he won't take the UK back into the EEA let alone reverse Brexit.
The redwallers got the Brexit they voted for in 2019, now even Starmer Labour won't reverse Brexit they will mostly vote Labour again
On the migration point, ReFUK and Tice are very clearly going fishing for angry red wall voters who think they voted for the foreign to go home and still want that to happen. Some of these are the voters who have gone Lab > UKIP > Con/BXP and aren't going back to Labour.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
Also, Trump's record wasn't *that* bad, in isolation. The economy grew strongly because he borrowed and spent like there was no tomorrow, and while his handling of covid was a mess, a lot lay out of his hands, with state powers, and lots of other countries didn't do much better. We can argue whether that was because or despite Trump but that's a debate for us. Besides, plenty of Trump supporters are covid conspiracy theorists whose views have to be factored into any analysis.
It’s not often I disagree with any of your posts David, but I’m convinced, not least from the Lincoln Projects subtle messaging, that Trump did not deliver his Trumpesque promises, making America Great Again, delivering apple pie on Sundays with sunlit uplands. He’s too much of a shambolic, disorganised, all over tge shop disrupter to be a true shaper and deliver an agenda.
The only plus from a GOP point of view was the number of judges at all levels The Donald & Mitch Show appointed.
The question is not so much whether he delivered on that agenda (pre-covid anyway), but whether he appeared to deliver on it, to the voting public. Did they feel better off? Did they think that immigration from Mexico was less of a threat? And so on. It might well have been smoke and mirrors, mixed with kicking the debt can down the lane, but if you can get people voting on jam now and no-one explains about the empty cupboard for tomorrow, they will.
With regard to the discovery of intelligent life, fi is, I think, the biggest unknown in the Drake Equation. You can't really extrapolate from a sample of one, but it seems to me that it's not ridiculously difficult for life to get started in a simple way given a sufficiently large and complex environment that remains relatively stable for a long period of time, such as the early Earth (though that may not be so common either). The development of intelligent life is another matter again though. It took a long time for human-level intelligence to develop on Earth, despite plenty of opportunity for it to do so, and its eventual emergence in hominids seems to have happened almost by chance.
I do recall seeing a theory that for a planet to be stable enough to support an evolutionary chain long enough to result in intelligence, an exceptionally large moon might be necessary. The tidal effects would stabilise the spin axis (Mars, in comparison to Earth, apparently had significant axial tilt changes multiple times in just the past few million years). Our Moon is exceptionally large for a planet our size - in our current knowledge - and the course of events that led to its formation (as we understand it) were quite freakish.
I also recall Asimov (who was quite scientifically sharp) speculating that the tidal effects of such a large Moon on flexing the Earth's crust may have led to heavier elements (such as uranium) being unusually concentrated near the surface and possibly contributing to the mutation rate that is necessary for evolution in "shorter" timescales (and perhaps even to tectonic plate formation, which may be necessary for life). No idea how solid this speculation may be, but those are the best argument for intelligent life being extremely rare - and they are VERY speculative.
Yes, I think the moon has played an essential role in creating an environment suitable for life on Earth. For intelligent life to evolve, you need, fundamentally, a sufficiently large, complex, long-lasting and stable (but not too stable) environment, and the presence of the moon has been vital in creating this on earth. My feeling is that this set of conditions is likely to be fulfilled very rarely and that the evolution of intelligent life is an extremely unusual occurrence. We may not be alone in the universe, but I think we might as well be, given the likely rarity of intelligent life and the distances involved.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
Brexit was done in 2020, we left the single market in 2021. Now even Starmer says he won't take the UK back into the EEA let alone reverse Brexit.
The redwallers got the Brexit they voted for in 2019, now even Starmer Labour won't reverse Brexit they will mostly vote Labour again
Try telling them that. Especially if somebody else is hammering their other ear about the ECHR and lawyers making a packet from woke and Starmer the knee-taking lawyer supporting staying in the ECHR etc.
In the spirit of being more precise in black-swan predictions, I predict the Campi Phlaegri will undergo a super-Plinian eruption creating a vast new caldera and wiping out much of the Bay of Naples, in early September 2024.
Hearing that a lot of drivers don't seem to know that you have to drive slowly through water. Making life difficult for themselves and others.
We were on the M20 last night and watched as a car in front of us aquaplaned, turned 90 degrees and bumped (fortunately gently) into a car next to it in the slow lane. The water must have been about 20cm deep judging by the bow wave our car made going through it, and I reckon the car in front was going at least 60mph when it happened.
With regard to the discovery of intelligent life, fi is, I think, the biggest unknown in the Drake Equation. You can't really extrapolate from a sample of one, but it seems to me that it's not ridiculously difficult for life to get started in a simple way given a sufficiently large and complex environment that remains relatively stable for a long period of time, such as the early Earth (though that may not be so common either). The development of intelligent life is another matter again though. It took a long time for human-level intelligence to develop on Earth, despite plenty of opportunity for it to do so, and its eventual emergence in hominids seems to have happened almost by chance.
I do recall seeing a theory that for a planet to be stable enough to support an evolutionary chain long enough to result in intelligence, an exceptionally large moon might be necessary. The tidal effects would stabilise the spin axis (Mars, in comparison to Earth, apparently had significant axial tilt changes multiple times in just the past few million years). Our Moon is exceptionally large for a planet our size - in our current knowledge - and the course of events that led to its formation (as we understand it) were quite freakish.
I also recall Asimov (who was quite scientifically sharp) speculating that the tidal effects of such a large Moon on flexing the Earth's crust may have led to heavier elements (such as uranium) being unusually concentrated near the surface and possibly contributing to the mutation rate that is necessary for evolution in "shorter" timescales (and perhaps even to tectonic plate formation, which may be necessary for life). No idea how solid this speculation may be, but those are the best argument for intelligent life being extremely rare - and they are VERY speculative.
There are theories that plate tectonics is also a great help towards life, and for that you need a silicate-rich crust.
It's the fact that there are so many things that had to have happened for complex life to evolve that makes me think it is likely to be very rare. A planet of sufficient size to hold an atmosphere circling a stable star at the right distance. Oceans just deep enough to partially cover its surface. A large moon to stabilise its axis and slosh those oceans back and forth. Plate tectonics (as you say) to mix up and turn aver the elements in the crust, and create ever-changing coastlines to drive evolution.
Another remarkable factor has been the way that the locking away of CO2 by plate tectonics over geological time has reduced the greenhouse effect on Earth just enough to compensate for the increase in the luminosity of the sun over the same period, thus keeping the temperature of the Earth within the limits suitable for life.
Comments
Besides, if a president was set on pulling out of Nato, he could.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024 - 9%
2. Date of the next UK General Election - 14th November
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called - Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%) - Labour win, 64 seat majority
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems - Trump & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner - Biden
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024 - 3.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%) - 2.3%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn) - £89bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64)- 61
"We are different; we are unique"
What I can’t work out is how you identify that those compounds exist from billions of miles away
The history of astronomical chemistry/observations is littered with finding compounds that were assumed to be life-only generated - and then realising that they can be produced in other ways.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1304213111
and
"During a transit, some of the starlight is eclipsed by the planet completely (causing the overall dimming) and some is transmitted through the planet’s atmosphere. Because different gases absorb different combinations of colours, researchers can analyse small differences in the brightness of the transmitted light across a spectrum of wavelengths to determine exactly what an atmosphere is made of."
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2022-08-26-first-definitive-detection-carbon-dioxide-exoplanet-atmosphere
I've heard a podcast mention another method as well, but cannot remember what it was...
Longer answer: different atoms molecules absorb slightly different wavelengths of light and so on. So if you have light from a distant planet or solar system, you can record what specific colours are missing and work out what chemicals are present to cause those absorptions.
When I used to dive regularly with astrophysics, they often got narked at the amount spent on rocketry when there was much more science per pound/dollar from telescopes.
(*) At least, from the stuff I could source at QMW's library, and from friends doing astro courses.
https://x.com/julianhjessop/status/1742842957797998886
But dive rather than dine is definitely a more interesting mental image.
(This time, my device wanted to use done instead of fine, which is just odd.)
I think most of these predictions can fall at the first hurdle. A January poll could have the Lab lead into single figures, 38-29 for example. Opinium could certainly do that. The trend is not that we should expect many Tory shares in 30s soon, but the Labour % is on the slide month by month, occasional polls here and there could certainly have single digits lead.
In the craziness of US politics at the moment, I suppose nothing is beyond the bounds, but this appears extremely unlikely in 2024.
Even the Georgia prosecutors are talking about the trial stretching beyond November, and Trump's defence seem to be getting some joy on pushing out the timeline for the federal case. The Florida case has a very favourable judge so neither the timelines nor sentence in the event of conviction present an issue. Even if convicted in any case pre-November, sentencing is a separate matter, and he'd be very likely to be free pending appeal even then.
It's just as crazy that he could be President whilst awaiting sentencing in 2024. But it's extremely unlikely he'll see the inside of a cell this year.
OGH also says, "There’s also been the recent story that he has to wear diapers and stinks." This really is an utterly appalling remark that is beneath the standards of this site and cannot go uncorrected. The word we use in this country is "nappies", not "diapers".
Here is the stuff he has said in the last 3 years
https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1742831927327912178
Not sure what it's like in the US. Wouldn't surprise me if still turned up to 11 and deeply polarised.
https://twitter.com/JPrafitt/status/1742839971243774171/photo/1
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right
- those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump
- those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
In most states, write-in candidates do still need to register as candidates to even be considered (although with a later deadline) but they can be entered and the systems do allow votes to be cast. In a handful, they don't even need to register.
However, there are some where write-ins simply aren't allowed for President, either due to the voting system in place or simply that the write-in would be discarded as a spoiled ballot rather than counted. These include Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma and South Dakota, which are all deep red and would presumably be fertile ground for Trump write-ins were it allowed. They also include the swing states of Nevada and New Mexico, as well as South Carolina (Haley's home state so you'd assume slightly less fertile for a Trump write-in should she be the official name on the ballot).
A journey time of "2-3 minutes" - laughable. That's literally his claim on the tweet.
Claiming HS2 was cancelled to build it, then saying they need to do a study (so actually there is nothing to fund) - pityful.
Presumably urging voters to vote Green
Voting for SKS is project no hope, no change, no difference.
Apart from an inch and a half
Put simply, detailed analysis of each state's laws would need to be undertaken to determine just how states would block access.
It is not against the constitution for Electors to vote for a (currently) ineligible candidate and indeed the constitution makes provision for precisely that scenario - and for one whereby a currently ineligible candidate subsequently becomes eligible. If Trump is ruled an insurrectionist then as there is such a path to eligibility to serve, it's not as black-and-white a situation as, say, a foreign-born national.
She is a full on supporter of the Jan 6 insurrection, and texted Trump's Co-defendants urging overturning of the election.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
The only plus from a GOP point of view was the number of judges at all levels The Donald & Mitch Show appointed.
In terms of electors, I think that's a red herring. Yes, they could vote for a person who had engaged in insurrection, or an Estonian, or a three year old. All those people would be ineligible and constitutionally incapable of serving as President. You're right that a two-thirds vote of both House and Senate could technically heal that for the insurrectionist, but not for the Estonian or toddler. But, as I say, there is zero chance of such a vote passing in the unlikely event of SCOTUS finding Trump to be ineligible in the first place.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
(although the question of panspermia, especially if it is from the nearer stars, might also be open at that point).
This is the guy who can't cope with being told he has small hands.
He can't say, for example, "I think I took the best decision given the difficult circumstances and the amount of information available at the time", either. He can only say he made the greatest phone call to Georgia that anyone ever made, a truly beautiful phone call. What defence attorney would want such a headbanger as his client? You'd do your utmost to stop him being called to the witness box. Courts work differently from wrestling, reality TV, and politics.
Trump is not going to look good when he's told to shut his mouth or get taken down to the cells, or when he's told "Answer the question. I'll repeat it - you lied, didn't you?"
Does any USpol maven here know when this is likely to be? Possibly for the Dems later will be better than sooner?
I’m not predicting a single digit Lab lead in January, so don’t bet on one, only I wouldn’t be surprised if there was one owing to weakness in Labours share in the trend.
In all post Christmas springs in this parliament the Tories have gathered polling strengths, increased the leads or closed the deficits, I expect the trend to continue this year. However, once we get back into summer and autumn, I expect Tories to decline in polls again.
believes the revelation of a an exoplanetary biosignature in 2024 (which now looks quite likely given the various signals from different UK space bods) is merely Stage 1 of Disclosure
It’s the easiest bit to sell, of course (in this theory). So there are bugs on a planet seven billion miles away? Hey ho. Whatever. It’s profound (we’re not alone) yet also trivial (bugs, a billion miles away, meh)
Next will come revelation of a techno signature. That we have received signals from apparently intelligent life Out There Somewhere
Then comes the kicker. We have evidence of non human intelligent life visiting or existing on Earth…
For the purposes of clarity I am only predicting, as my official black swan, the first
People just aren't going to be voting this year, in significant numbers, on the extent of economic divergence necessary to achieve Brexit benefits. It has simply lost its salience - as demonstrated by the various by-election gains in solidly Leave seats by both Labour and the Lib Dems.
Maybe you think people SHOULD vote on the basis you say, but they really won't in meaningful numbers.
One of the third-year undergraduate projects we could do in my physics course at Imperial (1991-1994) was to assist teams searching for exoplanets. Basically doing the scut-work.
Littler’s local darts team is called the Bogey Flickers I believe, which is a better joke I think.
I also recall Asimov (who was quite scientifically sharp) speculating that the tidal effects of such a large Moon on flexing the Earth's crust may have led to heavier elements (such as uranium) being unusually concentrated near the surface and possibly contributing to the mutation rate that is necessary for evolution in "shorter" timescales (and perhaps even to tectonic plate formation, which may be necessary for life). No idea how solid this speculation may be, but those are the best argument for intelligent life being extremely rare - and they are VERY speculative.
It doesn't matter much what voters say to pollsters months or years ahead of an election, as the 2017 general election so clearly showed. Local elections don't matter much either. [*]
* Except for the London mayoral election. Sunak or whoever is Tory leader in the spring will be nuts not to call the GE for the same day.
The second is a Black Swan. The first, in general isn't. Who shall be the judge of what counts? Is it 'peer reviewed in Nature or similar' or something less (or more) than this?
This is how intelligent life as we understand and which is really really like us might evolve. Intelligent life - sentient gas clouds, really smart hives of silicon based amoebae - might evolve in ways we don’t understand and - more importantly - might never be able to understand no more than a wasp can ever understand Mozart, even if you lock it in a room with a chamber orchestra forever playing the 40th symphony
Of course the government recently announced measures to raise the threshold for migrants to £38k to get a visa to work here, both EU and non EU, unless in a shortage area
e.g. this recent one: https://phys.org/news/2023-09-plate-tectonics-billion-years-life.html
Or this:
https://daily.jstor.org/how-plate-tectonics-shook-life-into-existence/
If May local results are terrible, as we all expect them to be, there is a chance the backbenchers roll the dice again....
The redwallers got the Brexit they voted for in 2019, now even Starmer Labour won't reverse Brexit they will mostly vote Labour again
If I could make a single change in parliament it would be for the speaker's role to include that of requiring questions to be answered in the same way a judge does, and not backing down until he/she has done so.
Parliament is our highest court. Failing to answer a question should be as great an offence as a lie direct.
The hint is that this will appear, peer reviewed, in a major scientific journal, as dramatic evidence of exoplanetary life
That doesn’t mean uncontested but it means the scientific consensus is Yeah, probably life
Which counts as a Black Swan?
As for the moon being large, it's not just that but the fact that it is JUST the right size, given the radius of its orbit, to block out the sunlight VERY occasionally, for a few minutes, and only on small strips of the planet's surface. I'm not saying this is necessary for the evolution of life, but it could be true that it played a role in the evolution of terrestrial life. Never mind the mechanism. It's just weird. (It might be enough to drive a mushroom completely mental
Similarly, as regards human cultural evolution, it could have been the Sun going out for a few minutes that really got the apes' cosmo-cogitation going in a certain part of Africa, or maybe the cogitation of a couple of outcast nomads near what became Gobleki Tepe, working at a much deeper level than the sussing out of the seasons or the rhythm of the flooding of the Nile. Imagine being able to predict solar eclipses and how it would affect and reinforce how you saw the cosmos and also your attitude towards migration.
BHIA mentions the freeport in his commentary, and this was originally to link various areas of it together.
Another remarkable factor has been the way that the locking away of CO2 by plate tectonics over geological time has reduced the greenhouse effect on Earth just enough to compensate for the increase in the luminosity of the sun over the same period, thus keeping the temperature of the Earth within the limits suitable for life.
ITV has a new miniseries...Mr Bates vs The Post Office...A quick look at the cast list shows...there’s no-one playing Adam Crozier, who was CEO of Royal Mail Ltd...Crozier played a significant role in the real-life scandal, but looks to have been snipped out of the dramatisation. Maybe it was just too tricky to write the scene where Crozier left Royal Mail to become CEO of… ITV.
For the source, see here: https://popbitch.com/emails/hungarian-ventrilo-choir/