This could also be a plausible black swan event. Unlike last August with LK-99, it has apparently already been replicated (although I'd like to see solid confirmation on that), and the researchers are being far more cautious in their claims (which does usually characterise genuine successes).
Going to need to see a lot more on this, but an ambient pressure near-room-temperature superconductor could be very very significant indeed. IF it pans out (still very much to see yet)
For a layman, such as myself, why is this possibly significant ?
Lots of applications. Personally I use liquid helium cooled superconductors in nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometers and hospitals use it in MRI. Removing the need for liquid he will be huge cost wise and potentially tech wise too. Then there is power transmission - no electrical resistance.
Then there is applications towards nuclear fusion (which I think uses superconducters to manage the high temps and pressures needed).
Easy magnetic levitation of trains etc.
And that's just the start.
It’s not what one might call a black swan event with respect to the general election, however. The benefits of any new tech won’t be kicking in before the election is due.
True. Got carried away. I'd think the effects would be felt considerably faster than, say, semiconductors in the past, or computers, but still sufficient latency to not affect the election this year.
November then, IMHO. Afraid we’ve got another 10 months of this. Sigh.
Unless he is doing this to try and catch Labour off guard, but I’m not sure I credit him with that much strategic thinking.
He’s doing this to try and avoid the immense damage to him of “you bottled the May election” vibe.
With timing of budget and the whole “you will feel better off in your pocket” media campaign of the last few weeks, their war gaming has clearly tried to keep May option on the table.
People who really don’t like the Tories will be happy if it isn’t May, despite the faux grumbling on PB posts. Once the date ticks beyond May 2nd, the Tories are on for a worse result than if it had been May 2nd.
The Tory party need people to go out and canvass during the election and get people to vote on the day.
If you were a Tory councilor and you lost your seat in May because Rishi destroyed the Tory party vote , you are not exactly going to waste a month in October / November canvassing for the Tory party.
That’s why I expect the Tory party will do disastrously if he delays an election - there won’t be anyone going out to ensure the Tory vote gets out and actually votes
Probably true. And a lot of the effect of tax cuts will dissipate.
But it gets Rishi, Jeremy, James and all the rest of them another six months or so around the big table. It's selfish, short-termist and wasteful of money, but that's where the party is right now.
Top dieting tip: If it is in the house, you'll eat it. So don't buy the bad foods in the first place. If the only snacks available at home are dried fruit and nuts, that's what you'll eat - not biscuits, crisps or chocolate.
Yes, that is key - remove all tempting food from the house. It's one reason I am doing it now - in a hotel room
There is nothing in this room but water, coffee and tea, and a Snickers bar in the fridge (and I hate cheap chocolate)
So we have bad things that are not black swans because they are widely discussed risks (Russia winning in Ukraine, the Gaza war spreading, Chinese economic hard landing, inflation returning etc.) Most of which probably don;t have a major impact on the election itself.
Then we have bad things that are arguably black swans or at least grey ones (mega natural disasters, global thermonuclear war, a new pandemic), which probably do affect the election.
We have good news which may be a black swan but probably doesn't affect the election (like RTSCs). And we have foreseeable good news that may or may not affect politics - like economic growth resuming strongly, or Russia losing in Ukraine. And neutral to worrying ones like Alien visitation or sentient AI.
How about good black swans that could affect the election? It's too late for a medical breakthrough like a cure for cancer to transform the NHS. But does the government hold shares in some startup somewhere that could make some huge leap and become overnight more valuable than Amazon? The discovery of vast deposits of Lithium under the North Sea?
November then, IMHO. Afraid we’ve got another 10 months of this. Sigh.
Unless he is doing this to try and catch Labour off guard, but I’m not sure I credit him with that much strategic thinking.
He’s doing this to try and avoid the immense damage to him of “you bottled the May election” vibe.
With timing of budget and the whole “you will feel better off in your pocket” media campaign of the last few weeks, their war gaming has clearly tried to keep May option on the table.
People who really don’t like the Tories will be happy if it isn’t May, despite the faux grumbling on PB posts. Once the date ticks beyond May 2nd, the Tories are on for a worse result than if it had been May 2nd.
The Tory party need people to go out and canvass during the election and get people to vote on the day.
If you were a Tory councilor and you lost your seat in May because Rishi destroyed the Tory party vote , you are not exactly going to waste a month in October / November canvassing for the Tory party.
That’s why I expect the Tory party will do disastrously if he delays an election - there won’t be anyone going out to ensure the Tory vote gets out and actually votes
November then, IMHO. Afraid we’ve got another 10 months of this. Sigh.
Unless he is doing this to try and catch Labour off guard, but I’m not sure I credit him with that much strategic thinking.
He’s doing this to try and avoid the immense damage to him of “you bottled the May election” vibe.
With timing of budget and the whole “you will feel better off in your pocket” media campaign of the last few weeks, their war gaming has clearly tried to keep May option on the table.
People who really don’t like the Tories will be happy if it isn’t May, despite the faux grumbling on PB posts. Once the date ticks beyond May 2nd, the Tories are on for a worse result than if it had been May 2nd.
The Tory party need people to go out and canvass during the election and get people to vote on the day.
If you were a Tory councilor and you lost your seat in May because Rishi destroyed the Tory party vote , you are not exactly going to waste a month in October / November canvassing for the Tory party.
That’s why I expect the Tory party will do disastrously if he delays an election - there won’t be anyone going out to ensure the Tory vote gets out and actually votes
Probably true. And a lot of the effect of tax cuts will dissipate.
But it gets Rishi, Jeremy, James and all the rest of them another six months or so around the big table. It's selfish, short-termist and wasteful of money, but that's where the party is right now.
They might surprise you with a May election. Their strategists seem to think it’s best moment this year. And many of those you call selfish already have their non government and exMP careers organised, won’t need the extra six months poncing around as big shots.
This could also be a plausible black swan event. Unlike last August with LK-99, it has apparently already been replicated (although I'd like to see solid confirmation on that), and the researchers are being far more cautious in their claims (which does usually characterise genuine successes).
Going to need to see a lot more on this, but an ambient pressure near-room-temperature superconductor could be very very significant indeed. IF it pans out (still very much to see yet)
For a layman, such as myself, why is this possibly significant ?
Lots of applications. Personally I use liquid helium cooled superconductors in nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometers and hospitals use it in MRI. Removing the need for liquid he will be huge cost wise and potentially tech wise too. Then there is power transmission - no electrical resistance.
Then there is applications towards nuclear fusion (which I think uses superconducters to manage the high temps and pressures needed).
Easy magnetic levitation of trains etc.
And that's just the start.
One of the reasons I live PB is posters saying things like: "Personally I use liquid helium cooled superconductors..."
They're far better drops than another boring meal on another boring beach.
I've just told you that we have likely discovered aliens. Stop complaining about my drinx pix
The problem with screeching "we have likely discovered aliens" is that, as you know, people think aliens = ET or little grey men. It also over-eggs the pudding. Much better to go with "people are predicting that the JWST will detect signals in exoplanet atmospheres that *may* be consistent with life."
And I wasn't complaining about your drink pics. I quite like them occasionally (with the emphasis on 'occasionally'). It's just that saying you use liquid cooled superconductors is far cooler, practically and subjectively, than any number of bragging reports about meals at boring expensive resorts with boring people.
I’m only allowed water, black coffee and black or green tea
I want a total detox and to keep the weight loss going
I’ve done it before - once - and failed several times. Getting through the second day is hard hard hard, hence my failures
But if you can, the mental clarity on day 3 onwards is intense. A kind of manic elation
Here goes
Good luck. Dieting is fucking difficult, hence Ozempic. Plus the elation at your diet if it is successful is often enough to put you right back to where you were.
We have all discussed dieting plenty of times in the past so each to their own.
Any diet will work (water, black coffee, tea - big mac, BLT, mars bar) if it regulates eating as being overweight stems from too much eating so all those books very cleverly just decide on a theme and then use that as contents for regulated eating.
Exercise can also help but can also be used to "justify" eating more (just another 15mins running before I can have that Mars Bar) so should be handled with care.
As I say, good luck.
Best 'diet' I ever had - five weeks in the hospital receiving chemotherapy with associated gastric issues and eating appalling hospital food. Lost three stone...
Not recommended!
Good for you. There's a wider issue about hospital food. A massive proportion of health and healing is good nutrition. Nutrition in hospitals should have the same care and attention as the details of heart surgery.
100%. It was over 10 years ago and my wife's food last year (birth of our son) was ok. For me the food was terrible, The NHS seemed to want to balance every meal nutritionally, despite me being there long term, so the choices were weird. The worst was a minestrone soup that looked like what would be is a washing up bowl washing up the soup bowls after the meal. The bread was cheap and nasty. The feeding regime was for little old ladies (breakfast, larger lunch, supper in the evening). Most folk I know eat small lunches and have an evening meal. I know there are cost pressures but surely feeding patients well is part of the care?
In the spirit of being more precise in black-swan predictions, I predict the Campi Phlaegri will undergo a super-Plinian eruption creating a vast new caldera and wiping out much of the Bay of Naples, in early September 2024.
Depending on how badly it erupts, that could range between "devastation to Southern Europe" and "civilizational collapse in the northern hemisphere." Burying half of Europe under and ash-field and wiping out a non-trivial proportion of food production on the planet would have pretty serious effects. (I've seen speculation that an earlier Campi Phlaegri eruption provided the final nail to render the Neanderthals extinct).
Which would be a sufficiently large black swan to render all the other predictions irrelevant, I'll grant you, but we may not be congratulating you online on your successful guess.
How about the collapse of Cumbre Vieja? A 50 m tsunami on Europe and the East Coast of America.
Top dieting tip: If it is in the house, you'll eat it. So don't buy the bad foods in the first place. If the only snacks available at home are dried fruit and nuts, that's what you'll eat - not biscuits, crisps or chocolate.
Top dieting tip: If it is in the house, you'll eat it. So don't buy the bad foods in the first place. If the only snacks available at home are dried fruit and nuts, that's what you'll eat - not biscuits, crisps or chocolate.
Yes, that is key - remove all tempting food from the house. It's one reason I am doing it now - in a hotel room
There is nothing in this room but water, coffee and tea, and a Snickers bar in the fridge (and I hate cheap chocolate)
Saw Becky Smethurst do a series of talks on Black Holes on a cruise of all places - she is an awesome speaker.
Regarding Black Swan, I think at this stage evidence of simple life on another planet would not be a Black Swan, in as much as it would not alter the world much. A clear message from Planet Zog, now that would count.
I think a Black Swan would need to alter things dramatically, at least for Britain if not globally. Real examples that spring to mind: JFK assassination, 9/11, Covid, Ukraine invasion (though largely foreseen in the end). More parochially: John Smith's death in 1994, 7/7, Grenfell,..
The Daily Mail front page today has the Tory polling increasing due to the market battle driving down mortgage costs. If a lot of voters need a new mortgage this year that is a lot bigger than their last one, does it make this newspaper front page candidate for one of the most economic and politically illiterate front pages in history?
So, if Sunak is to be believed it looks like I'm going to have to live through another glorious spring and summer with this bunch of useless charlatans still in power wittering on about small boats and not much else.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
For most Brexit voters, Brexit happened when we left the EU. They were annoyed, following the Leave vote in mid 2016 that it hadn't happened by late 2019 because they felt that showed a lack of respect for their decision, and voted for Johnson as the best way to end the impasse.
For most, greater than wanting “Brexit done” (whatever that might mean), was a frustration with the political impasse and a desperate desire for politicians and politics to move on to more useful, relevant stuff. That drove the desire, especially among those not really following politics that closely and not really bothered about Brexit yeah or nay, to put Johnson in, hoping that he’d start achieving some of the stuff he’d been promising.
Since then, covid, Johnson’s character flaws, and the Tory Party psychodrama intervened, and far from resolving the chaos and giving some direction, we seem to be in a bigger mess than we were back with Mrs May. The country is falling apart and no-one able to drive is at the wheel. And the Tory MPs are arguing with each other the whole time, just as were all the MPs before 2019.
That’s why people have given up on the Tories and, as you say, it has very little to do with Brexit one way or the other.
So, if Sunak is to be believed it looks like I'm going to have to live through another glorious spring and summer with this bunch of useless charlatans still in power wittering on about small boats and not much else.
How fucking depressing. Excuse my language.
A former Tory strategist who I respect says the longer Sunak holds on the bigger the defeat.
In the spirit of being more precise in black-swan predictions, I predict the Campi Phlaegri will undergo a super-Plinian eruption creating a vast new caldera and wiping out much of the Bay of Naples, in early September 2024.
Depending on how badly it erupts, that could range between "devastation to Southern Europe" and "civilizational collapse in the northern hemisphere." Burying half of Europe under and ash-field and wiping out a non-trivial proportion of food production on the planet would have pretty serious effects. (I've seen speculation that an earlier Campi Phlaegri eruption provided the final nail to render the Neanderthals extinct).
Which would be a sufficiently large black swan to render all the other predictions irrelevant, I'll grant you, but we may not be congratulating you online on your successful guess.
How about the collapse of Cumbre Vieja? A 50 m tsunami on Europe and the East Coast of America.
That's a good one. The Horizon back catalogue provides a useful resource for black swan candidates. No signs of life currently, but maybe that's what makes it a black swan.
I definitely feel volcanoes in my bones this year. It's overdue.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I think most of these predictions can fall at the first hurdle. A January poll could have the Lab lead into single figures, 38-29 for example. Opinium could certainly do that. The trend is not that we should expect many Tory shares in 30s soon, but the Labour % is on the slide month by month, occasional polls here and there could certainly have single digits lead.
Nobody's predictions fall at the first hurdle, just saying.
So, if Sunak is to be believed it looks like I'm going to have to live through another glorious spring and summer with this bunch of useless charlatans still in power wittering on about small boats and not much else.
How fucking depressing. Excuse my language.
A former Tory strategist who I respect says the longer Sunak holds on the bigger the defeat.
That should lift your depression.
Yes, probably. But it's no real consolation. I'd settle for a majority of 50 now rather than 100 in November. It's time to get rid.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
Brexit was done in 2020, we left the single market in 2021. Now even Starmer says he won't take the UK back into the EEA let alone reverse Brexit.
The redwallers got the Brexit they voted for in 2019, now even Starmer Labour won't reverse Brexit they will mostly vote Labour again
“Brexit was done in 2020. Redwallers got the brexit they voted for.”
You are simply repeating, not listening to what’s being put to you. Redwallers were promised benefits of Brexit, it is not done or delivered until those are delivered. Essentially, they were promised they would feel better off. They would see an improvement in public services. And where immigration looked a bit out of control pre Brexit, governments not keeping to “tens of thousands” of immigration promises pre Brexit, we would have control back to deliver this after Brexit.
Until these things are delivered, no it’s not done is it. That is the question being put to you HY, and you really have no choice but to agree. Because, whilst voters supported the Tory party to deliver on the Brexit promises, those voters are now marking the Tory’s down as failed to deliver on Brexit promise, and are now looking elsewhere for those same things to be delivered. Take a look at the polls.
More money has been put into the NHS and EU migrants now cannot get a Visa to work in the UK unless they earn over £38k a year thanks to the new government proposals.
So yes Brexit is done, done so much even Starmer Labour now promises not to reverse Brexit, not to restore free movement and not to return to the EU or EEA.
The 2019 general election was a clear choice for the UK of Brexit with the Boris led Conservatives or EUref2 or no Brexit at all with Corbyn Labour or the LDs.
Boris won that general election and now this year's general election will not be about Brexit unlike 2019 as both Starmer Labour and the Sunak Tories back Brexit and won't reverse it
“ now this year's general election will not be about Brexit”
You seriously believe that? 🤣
This years election is a huge Brexit election. Now with Corbyn out the way, all of Remainia get their first GE chance to give the Tory Party a thorough kicking for Brexit. We are talking historical Tory seats, where thanks to Brexit life long Tory voters now can’t wait to give the Tory’s a kicking, safe in the knowledge the worse that could happen is a Starmer/Reeves government.
Meanwhile Reform are on the rise simply because voters feel the promised benefits of Brexit are not happening yet. The argument the promised benefits of Brexit won’t be felt by voters until the UKs freedom to divulge is properly implemented, will only grow stronger from here, so that it won’t just be Reform arguing this, but increasing amounts of Tory’s too. This too makes 2024 a Brexit election.
2024 goes into history books as a Brexit election.
Nah. I know you keep pushing this line but that is just your wishful thinking. If we had had even slightly competent or honest Government over the last 7 years then Brexit wouldn't eeven register as an issue with anyone except the fanatics on both sides. As it is this Government will (hopefully) be destroyed by their incompetence and lies, not about Brexit but about the basic day to day running of the country.
This is why Starmer feels safe not even bothering to mention Brexit. He knows he has an open goal with the current rubbish administration and can safely ignore the minor disturbance of Brexit in the Force as he knows he doesn't have to promise anything or do anything other than be a reasonable and competent PM.
But we know you and your thoughts on Brexit Richard. You are pro Brexit, but you would prefer a different kind of Brexit to the current one.
And you don’t remotely believe 52% of those who voted on the day voted for exactly the same thoughts and reasons as yourself. Some voted for different reasons than yourself.
The question now is, what does the Richard Tyndall’s of this world do next, if anything, or want to see happen next, if anything, to move the current UK Brexit towards one you more prefer?
Black Swan event: Major terrorist attack in the UK during the GE campaign. Home Sec found to have ignored intelligence. Big swing to ReFuk. Tory wipeout.
So lets go down the Sunak election rabbit hole. Despite building momentum towards 2nd May, he decided the best decision is no decision. So we go on. They get a beating in the locals, which gets the parliamentary party creating all kinds of aggro. The recession and poor economic performance makes building any kind of momentum difficult.
So we get through a very silly summer, endless complaining and plotting. An election needs to be called but they are in a worse place than they were in March. Tory conference turns into another mess, so that window passes and besides which the King reiterates he is in Samoa Australia and New Zealand. Then the US election gets messy.
Like having children, if you wait for the right time it will never happen. There is no right time to go - the polls won't swing back in their favour, and the longer they go on the further away that is.
He can say "2nd half of the year" but he will dither on, behind in the polls, battered by his own side, waiting for *something* to happen. So if he doesn't go for 2nd May, there is a real likelihood that it drags out to 23rd January 2025. With the New Year campaign as the wild card attempt to make something change...
Yes that sums it up. You don’t call an election if double digits behind, when you can wait another 6 months hoping for something to turn up. McCawberism.
Hopefully it’s not just us on PB who can see this spring as being most favourable moment for the Tories. There more concrete negatives in waiting into second half of year than concrete positives.
If you announce an upbeat budget, you strike then whilst the promise is hot, not give opponents time to pick it apart. I’ve got long Summer and Autumn period set against the Tories local election disaster, and looking like electoral failures and had beens, running scared from calling an election. That period allowing the opposition parties to convince voters any tax cuts have actually been funded by borrowing, and the already high tax burden, not from growth - tax cuts whilst social services, NHS, education, the environment, infrastructure is actually falling apart - and the longer with tax cuts in their pockets the more voters won’t feel better off, the strongest moment is thoughts you might be better off.
That summer and autumn period more government promises might not go anywhere good or fall apart, such as immigration, NHS, borrowing, growth. And stopping the boats. And more light can be shone upon government incompetence in this parliament, not least the abuse of covid crisis to create a secret and corrupt fast lane to government money, that’s still largely unexplored by the media.
All these things will or likely come to pass to hurt the Conservatives next Summer and Autumn, it’s based on the understanding the Tory electoral battle for votes and best possible election result is not a battle between Tory and Labour but between Tory and Reform - the longer the gap is between now and the next election, the greater likelihood is Tory’s shipping more votes to Reform, not winning them back.
I think Q4 for the election but Sunak saying today that it won't be May doesn't mean it won't be May. What he's probably doing is pre-emptive. When Spring comes around he wants to have the choice of waiting as expected or surprising everyone by going for it. The choice he doesn't want is between going for it as expected and "bottling" it by delaying. Therefore he has to pour cold water on May.
This may actually be a brilliant idea. A CEO who doesn’t exist can’t
1) steal 2) commit sexual harassment of employees. 3) lie to regulators 4) read a stupid idea in Forbes and crash the company implementing it. 5) engage in insane litigation against franchise holders Etc
Should we try this with politicians and senior civil servants?
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I think most of these predictions can fall at the first hurdle. A January poll could have the Lab lead into single figures, 38-29 for example. Opinium could certainly do that. The trend is not that we should expect many Tory shares in 30s soon, but the Labour % is on the slide month by month, occasional polls here and there could certainly have single digits lead.
Nobody's predictions fall at the first hurdle, just saying.
I know what you are saying. But if no.1 is wrong, there’s goes the grand slam.
So, if Sunak is to be believed it looks like I'm going to have to live through another glorious spring and summer with this bunch of useless charlatans still in power wittering on about small boats and not much else.
How fucking depressing. Excuse my language.
A former Tory strategist who I respect says the longer Sunak holds on the bigger the defeat.
That should lift your depression.
I think a lot of us have been pointing that out for months - go in May and there is a fighting chance the defeat won’t be that bad.
Delay things and the predictions that the Tory end up with less than 100 seats becomes plausible
Black Swan event: Major terrorist attack in the UK during the GE campaign. Home Sec found to have ignored intelligence. Big swing to ReFuk. Tory wipeout.
How about former Human Rights lawyer defended the terrorist in the past?
Saw Becky Smethurst do a series of talks on Black Holes on a cruise of all places - she is an awesome speaker.
Regarding Black Swan, I think at this stage evidence of simple life on another planet would not be a Black Swan, in as much as it would not alter the world much. A clear message from Planet Zog, now that would count.
I think a Black Swan would need to alter things dramatically, at least for Britain if not globally. Real examples that spring to mind: JFK assassination, 9/11, Covid, Ukraine invasion (though largely foreseen in the end). More parochially: John Smith's death in 1994, 7/7, Grenfell,..
Just my view obvs.
Due to science fiction on TV and general disinterest in the world, the reaction for many of “life on another planet” would be “I thought we knew that, anyway”
The Daily Mail front page today has the Tory polling increasing due to the market battle driving down mortgage costs. If a lot of voters need a new mortgage this year that is a lot bigger than their last one, does it make this newspaper front page candidate for one of the most economic and politically illiterate front pages in history?
I had locked in a higher mortgage rate to kick in from 1st February, I now have a mortgage meeting first thing tomorrow to hopefully secure a better deal now on offer from the market battle.
Lets say I manage to get a deal in line with the current one. That's on monthlies. My mortgage interest rate would still be 2 full percent higher than current. So a big increase, whilst better than an even bigger increase, is not something to reward the government for.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
For most Brexit voters, Brexit happened when we left the EU. They were annoyed, following the Leave vote in mid 2016 that it hadn't happened by late 2019 because they felt that showed a lack of respect for their decision, and voted for Johnson as the best way to end the impasse.
People just aren't going to be voting this year, in significant numbers, on the extent of economic divergence necessary to achieve Brexit benefits. It has simply lost its salience - as demonstrated by the various by-election gains in solidly Leave seats by both Labour and the Lib Dems.
Maybe you think people SHOULD vote on the basis you say, but they really won't in meaningful numbers.
No. I called HY’s a daft post. I have to call yours a daft post too. If Brexit has been delivered, where’s the thanks for it?
The promise of things getting better after Brexit, has not been delivered. Simple as that. The position of the Tory party is that Brexit has been delivered, end of, but this is subject to change as Reform and Labour both go for Tory votes about things not being better, squeezing the Tory Party from both sides. So what the Tory Party will start listening to as an answer is the idea, the Tory party did not deliver Brexit promises, because it did not make the most of Brexit by diverging from the EU position.
If you are right about the Tory’s perceived success in delivering Brexit, as you claim in your post, why are Reform already on double digits in polls, even before the Tory toes are more seriously held to the fire in this and coming years? And if you are right, Lefties voted for Brexit so a Corbyn government would have the power to renationalise everything, Starmer should not be picking up these votes as easily as he is.
Take a look at the polls. If voters believe the promise of Brexit has been delivered, it doesn’t show up in the polls does it. Quite the opposite - reform plus Labour = over 50%.
"If Brexit has been delivered, where’s the thanks for it?" You want thanks? Incredible!
Also why add Reform and Labour opinion poll predictions together, you can't draw any meaningful conclusions from that.
“ why add Reform and Labour opinion poll predictions together, you can't draw any meaningful conclusions from that.”
It’s not one you often see. But while this one is over 50% it suggests little thanks for the Tories delivering the current state of Brexit.
Black Swan event: Major terrorist attack in the UK during the GE campaign. Home Sec found to have ignored intelligence. Big swing to ReFuk. Tory wipeout.
How about former Human Rights lawyer defended the terrorist in the past?
Which lawyer and do you know how the Taxi Rank system works?
Black Swan event: Major terrorist attack in the UK during the GE campaign. Home Sec found to have ignored intelligence. Big swing to ReFuk. Tory wipeout.
How about former Human Rights lawyer defended the terrorist in the past?
Which lawyer and do you know how the Taxi Rank system works?
I do know about the cab rank rule but as the Savile smears showed the Tories and Mail don’t give a fuck about that.
NEW: Starmer tells @skynews Sunak is “squatting for months and months in Downing Street, dithering and delaying” after the PM announces his ‘working assumption is an election in the second half of the year’ More on sky news imminently. Our full I/v on at 5pm
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
Brexit was done in 2020, we left the single market in 2021. Now even Starmer says he won't take the UK back into the EEA let alone reverse Brexit.
The redwallers got the Brexit they voted for in 2019, now even Starmer Labour won't reverse Brexit they will mostly vote Labour again
“Brexit was done in 2020. Redwallers got the brexit they voted for.”
You are simply repeating, not listening to what’s being put to you. Redwallers were promised benefits of Brexit, it is not done or delivered until those are delivered. Essentially, they were promised they would feel better off. They would see an improvement in public services. And where immigration looked a bit out of control pre Brexit, governments not keeping to “tens of thousands” of immigration promises pre Brexit, we would have control back to deliver this after Brexit.
Until these things are delivered, no it’s not done is it. That is the question being put to you HY, and you really have no choice but to agree. Because, whilst voters supported the Tory party to deliver on the Brexit promises, those voters are now marking the Tory’s down as failed to deliver on Brexit promise, and are now looking elsewhere for those same things to be delivered. Take a look at the polls.
More money has been put into the NHS and EU migrants now cannot get a Visa to work in the UK unless they earn over £38k a year thanks to the new government proposals.
So yes Brexit is done, done so much even Starmer Labour now promises not to reverse Brexit, not to restore free movement and not to return to the EU or EEA.
The 2019 general election was a clear choice for the UK of Brexit with the Boris led Conservatives or EUref2 or no Brexit at all with Corbyn Labour or the LDs.
Boris won that general election and now this year's general election will not be about Brexit unlike 2019 as both Starmer Labour and the Sunak Tories back Brexit and won't reverse it
“ now this year's general election will not be about Brexit”
You seriously believe that? 🤣
This years election is a huge Brexit election. Now with Corbyn out the way, all of Remainia get their first GE chance to give the Tory Party a thorough kicking for Brexit. We are talking historical Tory seats, where thanks to Brexit life long Tory voters now can’t wait to give the Tory’s a kicking, safe in the knowledge the worse that could happen is a Starmer/Reeves government.
Meanwhile Reform are on the rise simply because voters feel the promised benefits of Brexit are not happening yet. The argument the promised benefits of Brexit won’t be felt by voters until the UKs freedom to divulge is properly implemented, will only grow stronger from here, so that it won’t just be Reform arguing this, but increasing amounts of Tory’s too. This too makes 2024 a Brexit election.
2024 goes into history books as a Brexit election.
Nah. I know you keep pushing this line but that is just your wishful thinking. If we had had even slightly competent or honest Government over the last 7 years then Brexit wouldn't eeven register as an issue with anyone except the fanatics on both sides. As it is this Government will (hopefully) be destroyed by their incompetence and lies, not about Brexit but about the basic day to day running of the country.
This is why Starmer feels safe not even bothering to mention Brexit. He knows he has an open goal with the current rubbish administration and can safely ignore the minor disturbance of Brexit in the Force as he knows he doesn't have to promise anything or do anything other than be a reasonable and competent PM.
But we know you and your thoughts on Brexit Richard. You are pro Brexit, but you would prefer a different kind of Brexit to the current one.
And you don’t remotely believe 52% of those who voted on the day voted for exactly the same thoughts and reasons as yourself. Some voted for different reasons than yourself.
The question now is, what does the Richard Tyndall’s of this world do next, if anything, or want to see happen next, if anything, to move the current UK Brexit towards one you more prefer?
Nothing. It no longer features as one of my major (or even minor) voting influences. Now it is entirely about competent and honest Government. Or at least more competent and honest than we have currently.
Indeed the best way to move on from Brexit for all sides and to find a relationship with Europe that suits the large majority of people is to have a Government that is not riven by ideological conflict and which is concerned with actually governing rather than continually triaging self inflicted wounds and worrying solely about public perception and popularity (or lack of it).
In the end Brexit suffers because of its association with the sunsequent Tory administrations rather than vice versa.
In the spirit of being more precise in black-swan predictions, I predict the Campi Phlaegri will undergo a super-Plinian eruption creating a vast new caldera and wiping out much of the Bay of Naples, in early September 2024.
Depending on how badly it erupts, that could range between "devastation to Southern Europe" and "civilizational collapse in the northern hemisphere." Burying half of Europe under and ash-field and wiping out a non-trivial proportion of food production on the planet would have pretty serious effects. (I've seen speculation that an earlier Campi Phlaegri eruption provided the final nail to render the Neanderthals extinct).
Which would be a sufficiently large black swan to render all the other predictions irrelevant, I'll grant you, but we may not be congratulating you online on your successful guess.
The resulting global cooling could be severe enough to wipe out the Greens and the BBC.
NEW: Starmer tells @skynews Sunak is “squatting for months and months in Downing Street, dithering and delaying” after the PM announces his ‘working assumption is an election in the second half of the year’ More on sky news imminently. Our full I/v on at 5pm
On top of everything else, what kind of nerdy dingbat says "working assumption"?
I do, but I'm OK with being a nerdy dingbat, and I am not running to continue being Prime Minister.
In the spirit of being more precise in black-swan predictions, I predict the Campi Phlaegri will undergo a super-Plinian eruption creating a vast new caldera and wiping out much of the Bay of Naples, in early September 2024.
Depending on how badly it erupts, that could range between "devastation to Southern Europe" and "civilizational collapse in the northern hemisphere." Burying half of Europe under and ash-field and wiping out a non-trivial proportion of food production on the planet would have pretty serious effects. (I've seen speculation that an earlier Campi Phlaegri eruption provided the final nail to render the Neanderthals extinct).
Which would be a sufficiently large black swan to render all the other predictions irrelevant, I'll grant you, but we may not be congratulating you online on your successful guess.
How about the collapse of Cumbre Vieja? A 50 m tsunami on Europe and the East Coast of America.
That's a good one. The Horizon back catalogue provides a useful resource for black swan candidates. No signs of life currently, but maybe that's what makes it a black swan.
I definitely feel volcanoes in my bones this year. It's overdue.
Yellowstone? Pinatubo?
Or a smaller one that could cause havoc due to where it is. Like the Iceland one (Mount Eyjafjallajökull) in 2010, but worse due to either size or location.
One in the Mediterranean, for example, (other than Campi Phlaegri) could still cause shipping through the Med to the Suez Canal to be halted (like Ever Green, but longer and worse), plus ports in the Med to be closed, volcanic ash closing off European airspace)
The Taiwanese pinch point has potential volcanoes (Tatun Volcanic Group), and all the chips produced there could mess up the global tech industry (and financial markets)
On the China/North Korea border (Changbaishan volcanoes), with ash clouds disrupting air routes in, out, and around Seoul, Osaka, Tokyo, etc, and maybe causing geopolitical tension in the region.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I think most of these predictions can fall at the first hurdle. A January poll could have the Lab lead into single figures, 38-29 for example. Opinium could certainly do that. The trend is not that we should expect many Tory shares in 30s soon, but the Labour % is on the slide month by month, occasional polls here and there could certainly have single digits lead.
Nobody's predictions fall at the first hurdle, just saying.
I know what you are saying. But if no.1 is wrong, there’s goes the grand slam.
No one is getting the grand slam... TSE didn't enter, remember?
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
For most Brexit voters, Brexit happened when we left the EU. They were annoyed, following the Leave vote in mid 2016 that it hadn't happened by late 2019 because they felt that showed a lack of respect for their decision, and voted for Johnson as the best way to end the impasse.
People just aren't going to be voting this year, in significant numbers, on the extent of economic divergence necessary to achieve Brexit benefits. It has simply lost its salience - as demonstrated by the various by-election gains in solidly Leave seats by both Labour and the Lib Dems.
Maybe you think people SHOULD vote on the basis you say, but they really won't in meaningful numbers.
No. I called HY’s a daft post. I have to call yours a daft post too. If Brexit has been delivered, where’s the thanks for it?
The promise of things getting better after Brexit, has not been delivered. Simple as that. The position of the Tory party is that Brexit has been delivered, end of, but this is subject to change as Reform and Labour both go for Tory votes about things not being better, squeezing the Tory Party from both sides. So what the Tory Party will start listening to as an answer is the idea, the Tory party did not deliver Brexit promises, because it did not make the most of Brexit by diverging from the EU position.
If you are right about the Tory’s perceived success in delivering Brexit, as you claim in your post, why are Reform already on double digits in polls, even before the Tory toes are more seriously held to the fire in this and coming years? And if you are right, Lefties voted for Brexit so a Corbyn government would have the power to renationalise everything, Starmer should not be picking up these votes as easily as he is.
Take a look at the polls. If voters believe the promise of Brexit has been delivered, it doesn’t show up in the polls does it. Quite the opposite - reform plus Labour = over 50%.
Brexit was never about ‘success’ for most people in this country, be they in the Red Wall or down south, Scotland, wherever. People were sold seductive lies, that they willingly believed, that Brexit would solve all their ills. They were never going to be fulfilled.
Brexit has, however, been a roaring success for the billionaires who funded the slick campaigns of lies that narrowly delivered it. We have been levered out of a supranational body that gives a damn about the welfare of its citizens and the world they live in. That membership of impacted on the balance sheets of the Brexit billionaires and reduced the control they could exert to shape this country as they see fit.
The Brexit billionaires and their Finsubs that make up the Tory Party can now push, free from any external constraints, for US-style levels of inequality. Their offshore tax havens are safe. They will dumb down even further our working class people. They will make it even harder for working class people to go to university. They will do their utmost to make us a parochial, inward looking, resentful little country, easily manipulated and controlled. They will privatise the NHS when they can. They will allow our national infrastructure to degrade. They don’t care about you or your families. You are the contemptible little people.
This won’t happen immediately. They will learn from their radical Republican friends and work over decades, like getting Roe v Wade repealed. It will be drip, drip, drip.
That is why I despise Brexit so intensely.
I just hope the British public at large recognise how they have been conned, what they have lost, and what giving any more power to these lunatics will bring.
I’m only allowed water, black coffee and black or green tea
I want a total detox and to keep the weight loss going
I’ve done it before - once - and failed several times. Getting through the second day is hard hard hard, hence my failures
But if you can, the mental clarity on day 3 onwards is intense. A kind of manic elation
Here goes
Good luck. Dieting is fucking difficult, hence Ozempic. Plus the elation at your diet if it is successful is often enough to put you right back to where you were.
We have all discussed dieting plenty of times in the past so each to their own.
Any diet will work (water, black coffee, tea - big mac, BLT, mars bar) if it regulates eating as being overweight stems from too much eating so all those books very cleverly just decide on a theme and then use that as contents for regulated eating.
Exercise can also help but can also be used to "justify" eating more (just another 15mins running before I can have that Mars Bar) so should be handled with care.
As I say, good luck.
Best 'diet' I ever had - five weeks in the hospital receiving chemotherapy with associated gastric issues and eating appalling hospital food. Lost three stone...
Not recommended!
Good for you. There's a wider issue about hospital food. A massive proportion of health and healing is good nutrition. Nutrition in hospitals should have the same care and attention as the details of heart surgery.
100%. It was over 10 years ago and my wife's food last year (birth of our son) was ok. For me the food was terrible, The NHS seemed to want to balance every meal nutritionally, despite me being there long term, so the choices were weird. The worst was a minestrone soup that looked like what would be is a washing up bowl washing up the soup bowls after the meal. The bread was cheap and nasty. The feeding regime was for little old ladies (breakfast, larger lunch, supper in the evening). Most folk I know eat small lunches and have an evening meal. I know there are cost pressures but surely feeding patients well is part of the care?
I think it must be variable by institution.
Last summer the food I received was somewhere between OK and good, and there was a wide menu - albeit with the occasional "none left today".
If needed they also have sandwiches etc available on the ward at my local hospital.
I have a family member who has been in hospital over Christmas / New Year, and the food is reported as fine.
The one thing that I have to do as a T1D is to take care to do is make sure I have sufficient food and snacks to cover me for 24 hours, as it takes time for the systems to become established with each new patient. And everything can be thrown back in the air on a ward move etc.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
Brexit was done in 2020, we left the single market in 2021. Now even Starmer says he won't take the UK back into the EEA let alone reverse Brexit.
The redwallers got the Brexit they voted for in 2019, now even Starmer Labour won't reverse Brexit they will mostly vote Labour again
“Brexit was done in 2020. Redwallers got the brexit they voted for.”
You are simply repeating, not listening to what’s being put to you. Redwallers were promised benefits of Brexit, it is not done or delivered until those are delivered. Essentially, they were promised they would feel better off. They would see an improvement in public services. And where immigration looked a bit out of control pre Brexit, governments not keeping to “tens of thousands” of immigration promises pre Brexit, we would have control back to deliver this after Brexit.
Until these things are delivered, no it’s not done is it. That is the question being put to you HY, and you really have no choice but to agree. Because, whilst voters supported the Tory party to deliver on the Brexit promises, those voters are now marking the Tory’s down as failed to deliver on Brexit promise, and are now looking elsewhere for those same things to be delivered. Take a look at the polls.
More money has been put into the NHS and EU migrants now cannot get a Visa to work in the UK unless they earn over £38k a year thanks to the new government proposals.
So yes Brexit is done, done so much even Starmer Labour now promises not to reverse Brexit, not to restore free movement and not to return to the EU or EEA.
The 2019 general election was a clear choice for the UK of Brexit with the Boris led Conservatives or EUref2 or no Brexit at all with Corbyn Labour or the LDs.
Boris won that general election and now this year's general election will not be about Brexit unlike 2019 as both Starmer Labour and the Sunak Tories back Brexit and won't reverse it
“ now this year's general election will not be about Brexit”
You seriously believe that? 🤣
This years election is a huge Brexit election. Now with Corbyn out the way, all of Remainia get their first GE chance to give the Tory Party a thorough kicking for Brexit. We are talking historical Tory seats, where thanks to Brexit life long Tory voters now can’t wait to give the Tory’s a kicking, safe in the knowledge the worse that could happen is a Starmer/Reeves government.
Meanwhile Reform are on the rise simply because voters feel the promised benefits of Brexit are not happening yet. The argument the promised benefits of Brexit won’t be felt by voters until the UKs freedom to divulge is properly implemented, will only grow stronger from here, so that it won’t just be Reform arguing this, but increasing amounts of Tory’s too. This too makes 2024 a Brexit election.
2024 goes into history books as a Brexit election.
Nah. I know you keep pushing this line but that is just your wishful thinking. If we had had even slightly competent or honest Government over the last 7 years then Brexit wouldn't eeven register as an issue with anyone except the fanatics on both sides. As it is this Government will (hopefully) be destroyed by their incompetence and lies, not about Brexit but about the basic day to day running of the country.
This is why Starmer feels safe not even bothering to mention Brexit. He knows he has an open goal with the current rubbish administration and can safely ignore the minor disturbance of Brexit in the Force as he knows he doesn't have to promise anything or do anything other than be a reasonable and competent PM.
But we know you and your thoughts on Brexit Richard. You are pro Brexit, but you would prefer a different kind of Brexit to the current one.
And you don’t remotely believe 52% of those who voted on the day voted for exactly the same thoughts and reasons as yourself. Some voted for different reasons than yourself.
The question now is, what does the Richard Tyndall’s of this world do next, if anything, or want to see happen next, if anything, to move the current UK Brexit towards one you more prefer?
Nothing. It no longer features as one of my major (or even minor) voting influences. Now it is entirely about competent and honest Government. Or at least more competent and honest than we have currently.
Indeed the best way to move on from Brexit for all sides and to find a relationship with Europe that suits the large majority of people is to have a Government that is not riven by ideological conflict and which is concerned with actually governing rather than continually triaging self inflicted wounds and worrying solely about public perception and popularity (or lack of it).
In the end Brexit suffers because of its association with the sunsequent Tory administrations rather than vice versa.
That’s your answer. Brexit means Brexit?
If you described your own preferred Brexit Richard, and put it to a vote, I would vote for it.
So, if Sunak is to be believed it looks like I'm going to have to live through another glorious spring and summer with this bunch of useless charlatans still in power wittering on about small boats and not much else.
How fucking depressing. Excuse my language.
A former Tory strategist who I respect says the longer Sunak holds on the bigger the defeat.
That should lift your depression.
I think a lot of us have been pointing that out for months - go in May and there is a fighting chance the defeat won’t be that bad.
Delay things and the predictions that the Tory end up with less than 100 seats becomes plausible
Not really, in May 2009 Labour got just 23% at the local elections. Brown held on until the following year and Labour got 29% at the 2010 general election and a hung parliament, even if the Tories won most seats.
Similarly, in the 1996 local elections the Tories got only 29% voteshare but Major did not call a general election until the following year and despite heavy defeat, the 1997 Tory general election voteshare was sllghtly higher at 30%.
So Sunak has some grounds to say that delaying the general election to the last moment could see the Tories close the gap, especially with better economic news, falling immigration figures and tax cuts being felt. Hence his statement this morning that he will likely call the general election for the autumn rather than May
Top dieting tip: If it is in the house, you'll eat it. So don't buy the bad foods in the first place. If the only snacks available at home are dried fruit and nuts, that's what you'll eat - not biscuits, crisps or chocolate.
Works for me (in the sense that it keeps me down to a BMI of overweight, rather than BMI = 'jabba-the-hutt')
This could also be a plausible black swan event. Unlike last August with LK-99, it has apparently already been replicated (although I'd like to see solid confirmation on that), and the researchers are being far more cautious in their claims (which does usually characterise genuine successes).
Going to need to see a lot more on this, but an ambient pressure near-room-temperature superconductor could be very very significant indeed. IF it pans out (still very much to see yet)
For a layman, such as myself, why is this possibly significant ?
I am also not an expert, but two things that spring to mind are
More efficient power transmission over distance. To get the electricity from power station in X to your room in Y requires a lot of cables and transformers. This makes that easier and more efficient, so less power lost and hence cheaper
More efficient energy storage. Better large batteries.
Incidentally there was something else over Xmas: a AI-derived antibiotic variant. Antibiotics had a limited number of variants and over the last thirty years we ran out, which opened a space for things like MRSA (methicillin was the last variant available) to go yummy on flesh. Eventually it would have annihilated surgery as a concept. But thanks to AI (if true!) we now have another variant to play with, resulting in tens of thousands of saved lives over the next decades.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
For most Brexit voters, Brexit happened when we left the EU. They were annoyed, following the Leave vote in mid 2016 that it hadn't happened by late 2019 because they felt that showed a lack of respect for their decision, and voted for Johnson as the best way to end the impasse.
People just aren't going to be voting this year, in significant numbers, on the extent of economic divergence necessary to achieve Brexit benefits. It has simply lost its salience - as demonstrated by the various by-election gains in solidly Leave seats by both Labour and the Lib Dems.
Maybe you think people SHOULD vote on the basis you say, but they really won't in meaningful numbers.
No. I called HY’s a daft post. I have to call yours a daft post too. If Brexit has been delivered, where’s the thanks for it?
The promise of things getting better after Brexit, has not been delivered. Simple as that. The position of the Tory party is that Brexit has been delivered, end of, but this is subject to change as Reform and Labour both go for Tory votes about things not being better, squeezing the Tory Party from both sides. So what the Tory Party will start listening to as an answer is the idea, the Tory party did not deliver Brexit promises, because it did not make the most of Brexit by diverging from the EU position.
If you are right about the Tory’s perceived success in delivering Brexit, as you claim in your post, why are Reform already on double digits in polls, even before the Tory toes are more seriously held to the fire in this and coming years? And if you are right, Lefties voted for Brexit so a Corbyn government would have the power to renationalise everything, Starmer should not be picking up these votes as easily as he is.
Take a look at the polls. If voters believe the promise of Brexit has been delivered, it doesn’t show up in the polls does it. Quite the opposite - reform plus Labour = over 50%.
Since when were General Elections some kind of vote of thanks for past glories? 1945 is only the most brutal example, and that was two months after VE Day (which everyone welcomed) with the same PM going for re-election, rather than four years after Brexit (which about half the country welcomed) and two PMs later. People want to know what you have planned for your next trick, and Sunak has nothing (beyond squatting for a while).
In any event, and I think HYUFD is broadly right on this, Johnson personally is the man who is thanked for Brexit by those red wall voters who are minded to thank anyone.
This simply isn't going to be a Brexit election. There is no serious electoral traction in an argument over the the extent of economic divergence. I'm not saying it isn't a relevant issue for the next government or the one after that. It's just that, looking beyond the handful of hyper-political types on either side of the debate, things have moved on.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
Brexit was done in 2020, we left the single market in 2021. Now even Starmer says he won't take the UK back into the EEA let alone reverse Brexit.
The redwallers got the Brexit they voted for in 2019, now even Starmer Labour won't reverse Brexit they will mostly vote Labour again
“Brexit was done in 2020. Redwallers got the brexit they voted for.”
You are simply repeating, not listening to what’s being put to you. Redwallers were promised benefits of Brexit, it is not done or delivered until those are delivered. Essentially, they were promised they would feel better off. They would see an improvement in public services. And where immigration looked a bit out of control pre Brexit, governments not keeping to “tens of thousands” of immigration promises pre Brexit, we would have control back to deliver this after Brexit.
Until these things are delivered, no it’s not done is it. That is the question being put to you HY, and you really have no choice but to agree. Because, whilst voters supported the Tory party to deliver on the Brexit promises, those voters are now marking the Tory’s down as failed to deliver on Brexit promise, and are now looking elsewhere for those same things to be delivered. Take a look at the polls.
More money has been put into the NHS and EU migrants now cannot get a Visa to work in the UK unless they earn over £38k a year thanks to the new government proposals.
So yes Brexit is done, done so much even Starmer Labour now promises not to reverse Brexit, not to restore free movement and not to return to the EU or EEA.
The 2019 general election was a clear choice for the UK of Brexit with the Boris led Conservatives or EUref2 or no Brexit at all with Corbyn Labour or the LDs.
Boris won that general election and now this year's general election will not be about Brexit unlike 2019 as both Starmer Labour and the Sunak Tories back Brexit and won't reverse it
“ now this year's general election will not be about Brexit”
You seriously believe that? 🤣
This years election is a huge Brexit election. Now with Corbyn out the way, all of Remainia get their first GE chance to give the Tory Party a thorough kicking for Brexit. We are talking historical Tory seats, where thanks to Brexit life long Tory voters now can’t wait to give the Tory’s a kicking, safe in the knowledge the worse that could happen is a Starmer/Reeves government.
Meanwhile Reform are on the rise simply because voters feel the promised benefits of Brexit are not happening yet. The argument the promised benefits of Brexit won’t be felt by voters until the UKs freedom to divulge is properly implemented, will only grow stronger from here, so that it won’t just be Reform arguing this, but increasing amounts of Tory’s too. This too makes 2024 a Brexit election.
2024 goes into history books as a Brexit election.
Nope, as Starmer backs Brexit now as much as Rishi. The only difference is Starmer might move to more of a May deal type Brexit and regulatory alignment than the Boris deal.
Ironically therefore Theresa May might have the last laugh if Starmer wins, Brexit has got done now. despite Remainers in parliament blocking her Withdrawal Agreement and if Starmer wins he might dust down her Withdrawal Agreement and use that for the basis of a closer relationship with the EU. While still staying outside the EU and EEA
November then, IMHO. Afraid we’ve got another 10 months of this. Sigh.
Unless he is doing this to try and catch Labour off guard, but I’m not sure I credit him with that much strategic thinking.
He’s doing this to try and avoid the immense damage to him of “you bottled the May election” vibe.
With timing of budget and the whole “you will feel better off in your pocket” media campaign of the last few weeks, their war gaming has clearly tried to keep May option on the table.
People who really don’t like the Tories will be happy if it isn’t May, despite the faux grumbling on PB posts. Once the date ticks beyond May 2nd, the Tories are on for a worse result than if it had been May 2nd.
The Tory party need people to go out and canvass during the election and get people to vote on the day.
If you were a Tory councilor and you lost your seat in May because Rishi destroyed the Tory party vote , you are not exactly going to waste a month in October / November canvassing for the Tory party.
That’s why I expect the Tory party will do disastrously if he delays an election - there won’t be anyone going out to ensure the Tory vote gets out and actually votes
Not really, canvassing and GOTV really does matter in marginal council wards as local elections normally have only a 25-35% turnout.
Canvassing is less important for the general election though ironically as turnout is normally 60-70% and the majority of voters turn out canvassed and knocked up to vote or not, in person or by post and will have made up their minds whatever the canvasser does. Canvassing and knocking up in general elections only really makes a difference in seats where the majority ends up 500 or less for the winning party
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
Brexit was done in 2020, we left the single market in 2021. Now even Starmer says he won't take the UK back into the EEA let alone reverse Brexit.
The redwallers got the Brexit they voted for in 2019, now even Starmer Labour won't reverse Brexit they will mostly vote Labour again
“Brexit was done in 2020. Redwallers got the brexit they voted for.”
You are simply repeating, not listening to what’s being put to you. Redwallers were promised benefits of Brexit, it is not done or delivered until those are delivered. Essentially, they were promised they would feel better off. They would see an improvement in public services. And where immigration looked a bit out of control pre Brexit, governments not keeping to “tens of thousands” of immigration promises pre Brexit, we would have control back to deliver this after Brexit.
Until these things are delivered, no it’s not done is it. That is the question being put to you HY, and you really have no choice but to agree. Because, whilst voters supported the Tory party to deliver on the Brexit promises, those voters are now marking the Tory’s down as failed to deliver on Brexit promise, and are now looking elsewhere for those same things to be delivered. Take a look at the polls.
More money has been put into the NHS and EU migrants now cannot get a Visa to work in the UK unless they earn over £38k a year thanks to the new government proposals.
So yes Brexit is done, done so much even Starmer Labour now promises not to reverse Brexit, not to restore free movement and not to return to the EU or EEA.
The 2019 general election was a clear choice for the UK of Brexit with the Boris led Conservatives or EUref2 or no Brexit at all with Corbyn Labour or the LDs.
Boris won that general election and now this year's general election will not be about Brexit unlike 2019 as both Starmer Labour and the Sunak Tories back Brexit and won't reverse it
“ now this year's general election will not be about Brexit”
You seriously believe that? 🤣
This years election is a huge Brexit election. Now with Corbyn out the way, all of Remainia get their first GE chance to give the Tory Party a thorough kicking for Brexit. We are talking historical Tory seats, where thanks to Brexit life long Tory voters now can’t wait to give the Tory’s a kicking, safe in the knowledge the worse that could happen is a Starmer/Reeves government.
Meanwhile Reform are on the rise simply because voters feel the promised benefits of Brexit are not happening yet. The argument the promised benefits of Brexit won’t be felt by voters until the UKs freedom to divulge is properly implemented, will only grow stronger from here, so that it won’t just be Reform arguing this, but increasing amounts of Tory’s too. This too makes 2024 a Brexit election.
2024 goes into history books as a Brexit election.
Nope, as Starmer backs Brexit now as much as Rishi. The only difference is Starmer might move to more of a May deal type Brexit and regulatory alignment than the Boris deal.
Ironically therefore Theresa May might have the last laugh if Starmer wins, Brexit has got done now. despite Remainers in parliament blocking her Withdrawal Agreement and if Starmer wins he might dust down her Withdrawal Agreement and use that for the basis of a closer relationship with the EU. While still staying outside the EU and EEA
In reality, the Brexit we got was May's Brexit in every way that matters. All that bullsh1t in late 2018 and early 2019 was Remainers seeing the chance to block any Brexit (they didn't), and Johnson seeing the opportunity to take advantage of it all to become World King (he did, for a bit, before sh1tting the bed and being moved on).
November then, IMHO. Afraid we’ve got another 10 months of this. Sigh.
Unless he is doing this to try and catch Labour off guard, but I’m not sure I credit him with that much strategic thinking.
He’s doing this to try and avoid the immense damage to him of “you bottled the May election” vibe.
With timing of budget and the whole “you will feel better off in your pocket” media campaign of the last few weeks, their war gaming has clearly tried to keep May option on the table.
People who really don’t like the Tories will be happy if it isn’t May, despite the faux grumbling on PB posts. Once the date ticks beyond May 2nd, the Tories are on for a worse result than if it had been May 2nd.
The Tory party need people to go out and canvass during the election and get people to vote on the day.
If you were a Tory councilor and you lost your seat in May because Rishi destroyed the Tory party vote , you are not exactly going to waste a month in October / November canvassing for the Tory party.
That’s why I expect the Tory party will do disastrously if he delays an election - there won’t be anyone going out to ensure the Tory vote gets out and actually votes
Not really, canvassing and GOTV really does matter in marginal council wards as local elections normally have only a 25-35% turnout.
Canvassing is less important for the general election though ironically as turnout is normally 60-70% and the majority of voters turn out canvassed and knocked up to vote or not, in person or by post and will have made up their minds whatever the canvasser does. Canvassing and knocking up in general elections only really makes a difference in seats where the majority ends up 500 or less for the winning party
I agree it's slightly diminished returns in a high turnout General Election. In a sense, the most productive door-knocking is in a Council by-election in Barrow in February, where the turnout is so low that it can make quite a big difference. It's just that the stakes are somewhat lower than at a GE.
I think eek's point, though, is that a turnout of (say) 65% could well mean 75% of those inclined to vote Labour or Lib Dem doing so, but only 55% of Tory inclined voters (those numbers don't quite work but you see the point). Indeed, that sort of disparity does look pretty likely from all we can see.
So the canvassing has much greater returns for the Tories than for other parties in those circumstances. A Tory canvasser speaking to a Tory-inclined voter is much more likely to hit one who is thinking about not bothering (or maybe about RefUK) than is a Labour canvasser with Labour voters. Canvassing will be quite fun for Labour, but actually a lot of it will be nice chats with people who'd vote for you whether you'd called round or not.
For that reason, I agree with eek that a GE with a fair amount of door knocking would probably help the Tories, albeit we're talking in terms of marginal gains rather than transforming the landscape. That would surely be May, when a lot of Tories are defending seats won in the 2021 deferred elections (when the blues did well). Will those defeated councillors (or even the winners) and their supporters be very up for going once more unto the breach in October/November, when the weather is worse and they're in a bad mood? Not especially.
November then, IMHO. Afraid we’ve got another 10 months of this. Sigh.
Unless he is doing this to try and catch Labour off guard, but I’m not sure I credit him with that much strategic thinking.
He’s doing this to try and avoid the immense damage to him of “you bottled the May election” vibe.
With timing of budget and the whole “you will feel better off in your pocket” media campaign of the last few weeks, their war gaming has clearly tried to keep May option on the table.
People who really don’t like the Tories will be happy if it isn’t May, despite the faux grumbling on PB posts. Once the date ticks beyond May 2nd, the Tories are on for a worse result than if it had been May 2nd.
The Tory party need people to go out and canvass during the election and get people to vote on the day.
If you were a Tory councilor and you lost your seat in May because Rishi destroyed the Tory party vote , you are not exactly going to waste a month in October / November canvassing for the Tory party.
That’s why I expect the Tory party will do disastrously if he delays an election - there won’t be anyone going out to ensure the Tory vote gets out and actually votes
Not really, canvassing and GOTV really does matter in marginal council wards as local elections normally have only a 25-35% turnout.
Canvassing is less important for the general election though ironically as turnout is normally 60-70% and the majority of voters turn out canvassed and knocked up to vote or not, in person or by post and will have made up their minds whatever the canvasser does. Canvassing and knocking up in general elections only really makes a difference in seats where the majority ends up 500 or less for the winning party
Agree. Plus of course there is much more national media at a GE than a local.
For the LDs leaflets and posters are important in their targets to remind people they are the challengers.
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024. 12%
2. Date of the next UK General Election. 26th September
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%). Labour majority 180
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems. Haley & Biden
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner. Haley
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024. 4.75%
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2%). 3.9%
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn). £108bn
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64). 67
Yet another Haley prediction!
I'll be interested to see what the 'hive mind' summary is on Saturday if @Benpointer is able to do a summation.
I've bet on Haley as my long shot bet for GOP, but I am pretty sure it wont happen.
Haley is a good shout for a political betting site. Probably the biggest thing counting against Trump in the nomination process is that his record in office was so shambolic he didn’t deliver on expectations. For example, if he had gone down the route of state governor first, to prove with evidence he could run an administration that delivers, he would never have won the nomination on such a record of chaos and non delivery. It’s not Trump any Trump supporters want, it’s delivery of the Trump agenda.
I'm not sure that's true of all or even most of them. I know a few, and from what I can see, Trump supporters break down into the following, overlapping, categories:
- those who really hate woke/political correctness/the Democrats/New World Order/liberal media/Washington swamp, and regard everything the NY Times/MSNBC/mainstream media post against him as proof that he's right - those who regard politics as entertainment, a reality show for ugly people, or cage wrestling with words, and just see Trump as more entertaining than Biden, even if the joke is ultimately on them. For these people, there's no such thing as bad publicity for Trump - those who believe in Trump's policies. But I think this is the smallest category, because he's so erratic there's no telling what those are from one month to the next. You do meet people, occasionally, who really like his tax cuts or conservative judge nominations or whatever though.
None of these groups are particularly susceptible to reasoned debate on record in government or policy options, which is why Trump's popularity is so strong despite the various disasters and terrible decisions of his years in power.
The ultimate test of your claim “Trumps popularity is so strong” only comes at the general election. Let’s dig this post of yours out again after the result. Who won’t just lose tge White House, he will cost the party the house and Senate too.
Trump only won the first time due to the “Brexit States” hitting the “we have nothing to lose but hit the promise of change” button. That’s a one hit button. Once the penny drops you won’t reverse globalisation, bring all the jobs and wealth back, and turn rust into gleaming steal, your promises don’t get their vote again.
It’s not remotely ideological. Take UK Red Wall as example - pro Brexit Corbyn lost the Red Wall, those voters now switch to Brexit hater Starmer on the ideological point of Brexit? It’s not remotely ideological. There’s no ideological point there, or Starmer would get a worse Red Wall result than Corbyn.
Corbyn actually won the red wall seats in 2017, the red wall voted for Boris in 2019 to get Brexit done, note for Boris not the Tories. Now Boris has gone and Brexit has gone they have just gone back to voting for Labour as most of them normally do.
Daft post HY. “Corbyn won Red Wall seats” so did all Labour leaders.
The point remains, if Red Wall believe in and want Brexit to happen- that is UKs economic divergence from EU in order to finally bring the promised brexit benefits, then they would vote Tory at the 2024 election, not for Starmer, Lamy and a Labour top team of Brexit haters.
For most Brexit voters, Brexit happened when we left the EU. They were annoyed, following the Leave vote in mid 2016 that it hadn't happened by late 2019 because they felt that showed a lack of respect for their decision, and voted for Johnson as the best way to end the impasse.
People just aren't going to be voting this year, in significant numbers, on the extent of economic divergence necessary to achieve Brexit benefits. It has simply lost its salience - as demonstrated by the various by-election gains in solidly Leave seats by both Labour and the Lib Dems.
Maybe you think people SHOULD vote on the basis you say, but they really won't in meaningful numbers.
No. I called HY’s a daft post. I have to call yours a daft post too. If Brexit has been delivered, where’s the thanks for it?
The promise of things getting better after Brexit, has not been delivered. Simple as that. The position of the Tory party is that Brexit has been delivered, end of, but this is subject to change as Reform and Labour both go for Tory votes about things not being better, squeezing the Tory Party from both sides. So what the Tory Party will start listening to as an answer is the idea, the Tory party did not deliver Brexit promises, because it did not make the most of Brexit by diverging from the EU position.
If you are right about the Tory’s perceived success in delivering Brexit, as you claim in your post, why are Reform already on double digits in polls, even before the Tory toes are more seriously held to the fire in this and coming years? And if you are right, Lefties voted for Brexit so a Corbyn government would have the power to renationalise everything, Starmer should not be picking up these votes as easily as he is.
Take a look at the polls. If voters believe the promise of Brexit has been delivered, it doesn’t show up in the polls does it. Quite the opposite - reform plus Labour = over 50%.
Since when were General Elections some kind of vote of thanks for past glories? 1945 is only the most brutal example, and that was two months after VE Day (which everyone welcomed) with the same PM going for re-election, rather than four years after Brexit (which about half the country welcomed) and two PMs later. People want to know what you have planned for your next trick, and Sunak has nothing (beyond squatting for a while).
In any event, and I think HYUFD is broadly right on this, Johnson personally is the man who is thanked for Brexit by those red wall voters who are minded to thank anyone.
This simply isn't going to be a Brexit election. There is no serious electoral traction in an argument over the the extent of economic divergence. I'm not saying it isn't a relevant issue for the next government or the one after that. It's just that, looking beyond the handful of hyper-political types on either side of the debate, things have moved on.
Comments
I'd think the effects would be felt considerably faster than, say, semiconductors in the past, or computers, but still sufficient latency to not affect the election this year.
But it gets Rishi, Jeremy, James and all the rest of them another six months or so around the big table. It's selfish, short-termist and wasteful of money, but that's where the party is right now.
There is nothing in this room but water, coffee and tea, and a Snickers bar in the fridge (and I hate cheap chocolate)
Then we have bad things that are arguably black swans or at least grey ones (mega natural disasters, global thermonuclear war, a new pandemic), which probably do affect the election.
We have good news which may be a black swan but probably doesn't affect the election (like RTSCs). And we have foreseeable good news that may or may not affect politics - like economic growth resuming strongly, or Russia losing in Ukraine. And neutral to worrying ones like Alien visitation or sentient AI.
How about good black swans that could affect the election? It's too late for a medical breakthrough like a cure for cancer to transform the NHS. But does the government hold shares in some startup somewhere that could make some huge leap and become overnight more valuable than Amazon? The discovery of vast deposits of Lithium under the North Sea?
And I wasn't complaining about your drink pics. I quite like them occasionally (with the emphasis on 'occasionally'). It's just that saying you use liquid cooled superconductors is far cooler, practically and subjectively, than any number of bragging reports about meals at boring expensive resorts with boring people.
A 50 m tsunami on Europe and the East Coast of America.
Regarding Black Swan, I think at this stage evidence of simple life on another planet would not be a Black Swan, in as much as it would not alter the world much. A clear message from Planet Zog, now that would count.
I think a Black Swan would need to alter things dramatically, at least for Britain if not globally. Real examples that spring to mind: JFK assassination, 9/11, Covid, Ukraine invasion (though largely foreseen in the end). More parochially: John Smith's death in 1994, 7/7, Grenfell,..
Just my view obvs.
How fucking depressing.
Excuse my language.
Since then, covid, Johnson’s character flaws, and the Tory Party psychodrama intervened, and far from resolving the chaos and giving some direction, we seem to be in a bigger mess than we were back with Mrs May. The country is falling apart and no-one able to drive is at the wheel. And the Tory MPs are arguing with each other the whole time, just as were all the MPs before 2019.
That’s why people have given up on the Tories and, as you say, it has very little to do with Brexit one way or the other.
That should lift your depression.
I definitely feel volcanoes in my bones this year. It's overdue.
It's time to get rid.
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1742888547370094678
Unsure if this is real, or how much damage that might do.
And you don’t remotely believe 52% of those who voted on the day voted for exactly the same thoughts and reasons as yourself. Some voted for different reasons than yourself.
The question now is, what does the Richard Tyndall’s of this world do next, if anything, or want to see happen next, if anything, to move the current UK Brexit towards one you more prefer?
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/01/crypto-hedge-fund-ceo-may-not-exist-probe-finds-no-record-of-identity/
This may actually be a brilliant idea. A CEO who doesn’t exist can’t
1) steal
2) commit sexual harassment of employees.
3) lie to regulators
4) read a stupid idea in Forbes and crash the company implementing it.
5) engage in insane litigation against franchise holders
Etc
Should we try this with politicians and senior civil servants?
Delay things and the predictions that the Tory end up with less than 100 seats becomes plausible
https://twitter.com/bethnalsue/status/1742706051437216147/photo/1
Lets say I manage to get a deal in line with the current one. That's on monthlies. My mortgage interest rate would still be 2 full percent higher than current. So a big increase, whilst better than an even bigger increase, is not something to reward the government for.
It’s not one you often see. But while this one is over 50% it suggests little thanks for the Tories delivering the current state of Brexit.
The Questions:
1. The smallest Labour lead with a BPC registered pollster in Q1 2024.
2. Date of the next UK General Election.
3. Party leaders of Con, Lab, LD, SNP, and Reform when the GE is called
4. UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%).
5. 2024 US Presidential Election: nominees for the GOP and Dems.
6. 2024 US Presidential Election: winner.
7. UK base rate on 31 December 2024.
8. UK CPI figure for November 2024 (Nov 2023 = 4.2% - correction 3.9%, 4.2% was CPIH).
9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2024 (Year to Nov 2023 = £116.4bn).
10. GB total medal haul at the 2024 Olympics ( 2020/21 = 64).
NEW: Starmer tells @skynews Sunak is “squatting for months and months in Downing Street, dithering and delaying” after the PM announces his ‘working assumption is an election in the second half of the year’ More on sky news imminently. Our full I/v on at 5pm
Indeed the best way to move on from Brexit for all sides and to find a relationship with Europe that suits the large majority of people is to have a Government that is not riven by ideological conflict and which is concerned with actually governing rather than continually triaging self inflicted wounds and worrying solely about public perception and popularity (or lack of it).
In the end Brexit suffers because of its association with the sunsequent Tory administrations rather than vice versa.
NEW THREAD
I do, but I'm OK with being a nerdy dingbat, and I am not running to continue being Prime Minister.
That it was implemented by incompetent buffoons is a rounding error.
Or a smaller one that could cause havoc due to where it is. Like the Iceland one (Mount Eyjafjallajökull) in 2010, but worse due to either size or location.
One in the Mediterranean, for example, (other than Campi Phlaegri) could still cause shipping through the Med to the Suez Canal to be halted (like Ever Green, but longer and worse), plus ports in the Med to be closed, volcanic ash closing off European airspace)
The Taiwanese pinch point has potential volcanoes (Tatun Volcanic Group), and all the chips produced there could mess up the global tech industry (and financial markets)
On the China/North Korea border (Changbaishan volcanoes), with ash clouds disrupting air routes in, out, and around Seoul, Osaka, Tokyo, etc, and maybe causing geopolitical tension in the region.
Brexit has, however, been a roaring success for the billionaires who funded the slick campaigns of lies that narrowly delivered it. We have been levered out of a supranational body that gives a damn about the welfare of its citizens and the world they live in. That membership of impacted on the balance sheets of the Brexit billionaires and reduced the control they could exert to shape this country as they see fit.
The Brexit billionaires and their Finsubs that make up the Tory Party can now push, free from any external constraints, for US-style levels of inequality. Their offshore tax havens are safe. They will dumb down even further our working class people. They will make it even harder for working class people to go to university. They will do their utmost to make us a parochial, inward looking, resentful little country, easily manipulated and controlled. They will privatise the NHS when they can. They will allow our national infrastructure to degrade. They don’t care about you or your families. You are the contemptible little people.
This won’t happen immediately. They will learn from their radical Republican friends and work over decades, like getting Roe v Wade repealed. It will be drip, drip, drip.
That is why I despise Brexit so intensely.
I just hope the British public at large recognise how they have been conned, what they have lost, and what giving any more power to these lunatics will bring.
Last summer the food I received was somewhere between OK and good, and there was a wide menu - albeit with the occasional "none left today".
If needed they also have sandwiches etc available on the ward at my local hospital.
I have a family member who has been in hospital over Christmas / New Year, and the food is reported as fine.
The one thing that I have to do as a T1D is to take care to do is make sure I have sufficient food and snacks to cover me for 24 hours, as it takes time for the systems to become established with each new patient. And everything can be thrown back in the air on a ward move etc.
If you described your own preferred Brexit Richard, and put it to a vote, I would vote for it.
Similarly, in the 1996 local elections the Tories got only 29% voteshare but Major did not call a general election until the following year and despite heavy defeat, the 1997 Tory general election voteshare was sllghtly higher at 30%.
So Sunak has some grounds to say that delaying the general election to the last moment could see the Tories close the gap, especially with better economic news, falling immigration figures and tax cuts being felt. Hence his statement this morning that he will likely call the general election for the autumn rather than May
That's been my standard weight for most of my life. When I was 14-15 I weighed six and a half stone.
- More efficient power transmission over distance. To get the electricity from power station in X to your room in Y requires a lot of cables and transformers. This makes that easier and more efficient, so less power lost and hence cheaper
- More efficient energy storage. Better large batteries.
Incidentally there was something else over Xmas: a AI-derived antibiotic variant. Antibiotics had a limited number of variants and over the last thirty years we ran out, which opened a space for things like MRSA (methicillin was the last variant available) to go yummy on flesh. Eventually it would have annihilated surgery as a concept. But thanks to AI (if true!) we now have another variant to play with, resulting in tens of thousands of saved lives over the next decades.In any event, and I think HYUFD is broadly right on this, Johnson personally is the man who is thanked for Brexit by those red wall voters who are minded to thank anyone.
This simply isn't going to be a Brexit election. There is no serious electoral traction in an argument over the the extent of economic divergence. I'm not saying it isn't a relevant issue for the next government or the one after that. It's just that, looking beyond the handful of hyper-political types on either side of the debate, things have moved on.
Ironically therefore Theresa May might have the last laugh if Starmer wins, Brexit has got done now. despite Remainers in parliament blocking her Withdrawal Agreement and if Starmer wins he might dust down her Withdrawal Agreement and use that for the basis of a closer relationship with the EU. While still staying outside the EU and EEA
Canvassing is less important for the general election though ironically as turnout is normally 60-70% and the majority of voters turn out canvassed and knocked up to vote or not, in person or by post and will have made up their minds whatever the canvasser does. Canvassing and knocking up in general elections only really makes a difference in seats where the majority ends up 500 or less for the winning party
I doubt May is laughing about any of it, though.
I think eek's point, though, is that a turnout of (say) 65% could well mean 75% of those inclined to vote Labour or Lib Dem doing so, but only 55% of Tory inclined voters (those numbers don't quite work but you see the point). Indeed, that sort of disparity does look pretty likely from all we can see.
So the canvassing has much greater returns for the Tories than for other parties in those circumstances. A Tory canvasser speaking to a Tory-inclined voter is much more likely to hit one who is thinking about not bothering (or maybe about RefUK) than is a Labour canvasser with Labour voters. Canvassing will be quite fun for Labour, but actually a lot of it will be nice chats with people who'd vote for you whether you'd called round or not.
For that reason, I agree with eek that a GE with a fair amount of door knocking would probably help the Tories, albeit we're talking in terms of marginal gains rather than transforming the landscape. That would surely be May, when a lot of Tories are defending seats won in the 2021 deferred elections (when the blues did well). Will those defeated councillors (or even the winners) and their supporters be very up for going once more unto the breach in October/November, when the weather is worse and they're in a bad mood? Not especially.
For the LDs leaflets and posters are important in their targets to remind people they are the challengers.
Labour had an 1100 lead in LE 2023, despite not standing in Longwell Green ward. So, they probably start with a lead just shy of 2000.