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PB Predictions Competition 2024 – politicalbetting.com
PB Predictions Competition 2024 – politicalbetting.com
Picuture: John William Waterhouse – The Crystal Ball – Wikipedia Public Domain
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But having said that, looks like events in Japan mean the year's already had its first natural disaster
1. 10%
2. 31st October 2024
3. Same as they are now
4. NOM - Labour 10 seats short
5. Haley and Biden
6. Haley (or GOP if we just want the winning party)
7. 4.5%
8. 3.1%
9. £87 billion
10. 50
1, 7%
2. 14th November 2024
3. Sunak, Starmer, Davey (who?) , Yousaf (why?) , Tice (what?)
4. Labour, 40 seat majority, that is 335.
5.Trump and Biden
6. Biden
7. 1.8%
8.£94 bn (negative, naturally)
9. 44.
Best of luck to all!
https://www.dubaiairports.ae/while-youre-here/relax-refresh/lounges/lounge-details/al-majlis-lounge
You arrive in their current-model BMW 7 series, which picked you up from anywhere in the UAE, go into one of 25 totally private suites, order food from a menu prepared by a Michelin-starred chef, and drink the Krug while you’re waiting for it. The concierge has taken your bags straight from the car, and is checking them in on your behalf.
At some point, your passport control officer will come and say hi, take your passports for stamping and bring them back to you.
Once you’ve decided whether you want to be first or last to board the plane, you wait to be called to walk through your private security gate and out airside to another 7-series, which takes you straight to the plane.
You will never see another guest during your experience in Al Majlis Lounge, apart from your own party.
It costs £500 per person.
There’s also now also a similar one at LAX.
2 17 Oct
3 As now except Farage for Reform
4 Lan 48 seat majority
5 Wildcard Haley and Newsombe
6 Haley
7 3.75%
8 2.8%
9 63bn
10 43
Guess will need to wait until this time next year for the prize
1, 7%
2. 14th November 2024
3. Sunak, Starmer, Davey (who?) , Yousaf (why?) , Tice (what?)
4. Labour, 40 seat majority, that is 335.
5.Trump and Biden
6. Biden
7. 4.75%
8 1.8%
9. £94bn
10. 44.
2. 21st November 2024
3. Rishi, SKS, SED, Humza, Tice
4. Labour, majority 25
5. Trump and Biden
6. Biden
7. 4.1%
8. 5.2%
9. 100 billion dollars
10. 56
I presume the fizz flows freely?
A truly world beating airport lounge would - it occurs to me - discreetly offer sexual relief
That feels like hopecasting
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
At the equivalent point in the cycle Trump is doing worse than Romney and Biden is doing better than Obama.
Plus incumbent Presidents seldom lose.
Silly year, really.
I always take what he says very seriously.
I don't mind winning if I show a little knowledge, skill or intuition in the win; plain guesswork leave me a little cold.
That may be a growing problem in the UK, as well.
So I hope you will contribute your ideas here, even though that means putting up with a certain amount of snark.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
She pops in early (time zone different to most?) then never engages in debate with those who reply to her posts.
It’s not because she is a she. See @Cyclefree for the difference, plus a few others.
This is not “a stutter”
But I can make three predictions on different subjects:
1. The Huskies will win the Sugar Bowl today.
2. One of our hosts will learn how to spell Nikki Haley's last name.
3. This September will be the 20th anniversary of PEPFAR, which has saved an estimated 25 million lives -- so far. The BBC will fail to give the anniversary the coverage it deserves. As will the NYT.
1. 7% LAB lead
2. 2 May 2024
3. CON - Sunak, LAB - Starmer, LD - Davey, SNP - Flynn (Westminster), Yousaf (Holyrood), Reform - Tice
4. LAB maj 30 (LAB 340 seats)
5. GOP: Haley DEM: Biden
6. GOP Haley
7. 4.00%
8. 2.9%
9. £100bn
10. 50
Good luck all
2. 2nd May 2024
3. The same leaders as of 01/01/2024, with the exception of Reform who has Nigel Farage
4. Labour + 12%
5. Trump/Biden
6. Biden
7. The same as it is as of 01/01/2024
8. 2.8%
9. 150bn
10. 69
But Biden is a uniquely unappealing candidate. Every single poll shows a majority of Americans - even Democrats - want him to stand down for a younger guy/gal
Trump v Biden = Iran v Iraq
That is what can easily be done when you have literally thousands of videos of footage and can splice together <0.1% of the footage to paint a narrative. The human brain is very bad as assessing for sample size, and it believes five examples of something is a trend.
Dems are right to be concerned. Biden could easily lose
1. 9% LAB lead
2. 14 November 2024
3. CON - Sunak, LAB - Starmer, LD - Davey, SNP - Flynn (Westminster), Yousaf (Holyrood), Reform - Tice
4. NOM LAB 315 seats
5. GOP: Trump DEM: Biden
6. GOP Trump
7. 4.25%
8. 3.7%
9. £105bn
10. 46
2) 19 September
3) As now
4) Labour with plurality of seats. NOM, Lab seats 310
5) Trump and Biden
6) Trump
7) 4%
8) 3%
9) £120bn
10) 60
"You won’t hear President Biden talking about it much, but a key record has been broken during his watch: The United States is producing more oil than any country ever has.
The flow of huge amounts of crude from American producers is playing a big role in keeping prices down at the pump, diminishing the geopolitical power of OPEC and taming inflation. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline nationwide has dropped to close to $3, and analysts project it could stay that way leading up to the presidential election, potentially assuaging the economic anxieties of swing-state voters who will be crucial to Biden’s hopes of a second term."
source$:https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/12/31/us-oil-production-has-hit-record-under-biden-he-hardly-mentions-it/
(The price of gasoline is powerful politically, and amplified by the coverage. One local TV station (KOMO, the ABC affiliate) mentions it every single morning on their news programs, and I have begun to see commercials attacking the Democratic governor, Jay Inslee, for his "carbon tax" that has helped make gasoline prices here in Washington state about a dollar higher per gallon than in the US as a whole.)
The American economy is positively flourishing compared to the rest of the West
I would not wager money on it
It'd be hard to hit more than one absolutely exactly.
10%
November 14
No changes.
Labour 58
Trump/Biden
Biden
3.5%
2.5%
£120bn
40
Fuck sake America. Kick out the wrinklies
And they don’t care about the rest of the world, so comparisons don’t matter.
I’m mildly optimistic though that in 24, inflation will have started to fade from the memory, and with low oil prices and falling interest rates, Americans will start to feel more positive again.
The most recent are Bush Senior and Jimmy Carter. I reckon Biden is a weaker candidate than Bush Senior and about as bad as Carter (for very very different reasons, obvs)
However, 2012 is now a long time ago. We're in a different era.
I think it is social media as well, especially reports of
1. Urban decay
And
2. Chaos at the border
Even if gas is a buck cheaper than last year, if the average American thinks major cities are in a spiral of terrible decline, and the borders are entirely out of control, then Biden is in deep trouble: it feels like America is going the wrong way, despite GDP growth
The images from the border are particularly compelling, many thousands crossing every day. Biden desperately needs to sort that, and get it off TV
See here:
BREAKING: U.S. border officials on track to process over 300,000 migrants in December, a record monthly high.
https://x.com/cbsnews/status/1741482272535056445?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
A third of a million illegal immigrants in ONE MONTH
I can’t be arsed doing the full competition, but I’m predicting Labour 40 : Conservative 30 in a November election.
I also expect v high tactical voting against the Tories, so I predict a comfortable majority for Labour between 50 and 100.
If Biden loses, it will be because of this. I’d observe too that the Democrats barely recognise it as an issue, which is dangerous territory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DKv5H5Frt0
2. 14 November 2024
3. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Farage
4. Labour. Majority 154 (ie 402 seats)
5. Trump, Biden
6. Trump (tactical call here; I actually think Biden is more likely to win but the chances are close and there's no game advantage to predicting the same as everyone else)
7. 4.5%
8. 3.7%
9. £113bn
10. 49
Earlier in part 1 I proposed the theory that our rulers do not care about the ruled, they are competing with their peers on how best to use their captive population.
In this section I will look at how they compete with their peers and why it doesn't lead to success
Our rulers have been measuring success by growth: a change in the GDP metric. It enables Sunak to say to Modi that "my growth is bigger than yours" or vice versa. But GDP does not measure the happiness nor income of the people and it's entirely possible for country GDP to go up but population happiness, income or QoL per person to go down. I submit that this is the reason why US success is not translating to Biden success.
And with Texas bussing these migrants to Chicago and NYC the pain is spreading
I’ve had chance to study of the Abraham Lincoln speech you sent me Nigel.
https://www.abrahamlincolnonline.org/lincoln/speeches/cooper.htm
Part 1
You, and many others, are clearly fans of Lincoln. But that’s not the point under discussion at all, the point here is everyone recognising Lincoln as the war causing disruptor he clearly was - disruptor to the ideas of Freedom others felt the formation and existence of the United States, and life in it was all about.
Freedoms and Rights at the centre of American politics back then, as the argument they make America great.
Let me prove my argument the Civil War wasn’t about slavery, but about Freedom and Rights, by using this Black Mirror. Delete and replace the constitutional freedom and right to own slaves, in a state opposed to slavery, with the freedom and right to bear arms in a state opposed to carrying guns. It doesn’t matter if it’s slavery, or gun ownership, or any point of moral or political contention - it’s where that freedom and right in America comes up against a disruptor, saying “can we, while our votes will prevent it, allow {slavery} to spread into the National Territories, and to overrun us here in these Free States? If our sense of duty forbids this, then let us stand by our duty, fearlessly and effectively. Let us be diverted by none of those sophistical contrivances wherewith we are so industriously plied and belabored - contrivances such as groping for some middle ground between the right and the wrong, vain as the search for a man who should be neither a living man nor a dead man - such as a policy of "don't care" on a question about which all true men do care - such as Union appeals beseeching true Union men to yield to Disunionists, reversing the divine rule, and calling, not the sinners, but the righteous to repentance - such as invocations to Washington, imploring men to unsay what Washington said, and undo what Washington did.”
Lifted straight from Lincoln’s Cooper Union Address you sent me.
Let’s be honest in the terms we should use about Lincoln. He’s was a progressive, bringing a sense of duty to be progressive to any situation, into debate on any issue, and this made him the disruptor. I’m not saying you shouldn’t like Abraham Lincoln. But we must accept he is pressing for progressive change that is undoing what people believe are the Freedoms and Rights in America. And so Lincoln is the cause of the civil war.
The more I read up on this, when the secessionists fired the first shot in the war, their right to keep slaves not actually under immediate threat in the slave states, by all means put me right if that’s wrong. However, by this point they have clearly been pushed by their “Nationalist” opponents “clear intentions of redefining” the Freedom and Rights in US as they understood them, into a position to cede from the Union.
Recall “freedom and rights” are the words Haley used as to what the civil war was about in her instinctive answer to the question. And recall while she was, according to me, historically word perfect in her honest answer - that was used against her politically last week. However, rather than taking that answer out of the public sphere to believe it behind closed doors - a view of American history held behind closed doors, best not mentioned in public, which I claim is where it is being hidden, the US needs a more honest debate on this. And here’s the question, can the US have that honest debate on this right now? Or is the USA a place true history of Civil War is kept behind closed doors, because that same actual war hasn’t even been resolved yet?
because, biggest Elephant in the room in the USA is how the Freedom and Rights indoctrinated into Americans, from birth even like the first thing whispered into each baby’s ear after the stork has dropped it off, completely grates against progressive and nationalist politics of Lincoln’s Copper Union address: that the National government, Congress, has both the moral duty and constitutional power to override “everything”, on issues where there cannot be groping for contrivances in the middle ground.
Forget 1860 - instead take a little trip with Lincoln’s Copper Union Address through America today, and see just how many it can wind up into insurrection, even in 2024.
I rest my case here. I’ve explained myself fully, whether you want to agree or not.
But a big negative rating and a big positive rating on one side still adds up to much the same as a great pile of meh on the other.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
The big surprise (certainly from pre-mid-Oct) last time was the sheer size of the GOP vote; their ability to register and turn out voters. I can see a drop off in turnout from both sides on 2020 but given how close that election was, a huge amount turns on which drops more.
2. 14th November 2024
3. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. Lab with 290 seats (short of majority by 36)
5. Trump, Biden
6. Biden
7. 3.5%
8. 2.5%
9. £140 bn.
10. 55
Why you can't buy Dasani water in Britain
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wD79NZroV88
Why Shakespeare Could Never Have Been French
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUnGvH8fUUc
2 Tuesday 28 January 2025
3 No change except Badenoch for Conservatives.
4 Labour 200 majority
5 Haley and Harris
6 Haley
7 5%
8 4.5%
9 £120bn
10 45
"The moiré effect lights that guide ships home"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d99_h30swtM
During Biden’s presidency, 6 million illegal migrants have entered the USA. SIX MILLION. It is stupefying, and, as you note, it is actually getting worse not better
This alone could kill his chances in 2024. And we see nothing of it on British media
Not on here. Both my wife and I (on holiday in North Devon) have had two strangers be very rude to us in recent days. One guy flipped me the bird when I pointed out to him the area of the pub we were in with our kids was a dog-free area. And my wife had a lady in M&S get very rude with her for invading her "personal space" when she was packing her bags at the till, and my wife was next in line for the checkout. My half-sister also now works in retail part-time and she says the same - customers every day who are huffy and rude.
Of course, not everyone is like this but these incidents do stand out, and I sort of now start to understand why so many venues and outlets have signs up saying abuse of their staff is unacceptable.
Has anyone else noticed this?
Given how much I travel, I am always struck by how British people are comparatively polite and amiable and usually quite cheerful
It is one of the crucial things that makes Britain a rather nice place to be, despite the weather and the Barratt homes
Most importantly, both parties were seen as much bigger than any one individual - even the likes of Reagan or FDR. That is no longer so, on the red half.
They also believed this themselves. They convinced themselves that no matter what assurances were given to them, on slavery, that the election of Lincoln was the beginning of an assault on slavery.
To remain in the USA, when pro slavery politicians were not in control of the government was intolerable to them.
Meanwhile, I see that tonight’s Post Office scandal drama is now streamable on ITVX.
But anyone who has had a job facing the public has some horror stories, I suspect. Are they commoner and nastier now? Perhaps. Partly because everyone is more tired than in the past, but also I suspect that we've got used to zero sum thinking- the main way to get ahead is to push others down.
1. Seven points. (Lots of fuss until it turns out to be an outlier.)
2. 19 December 2024
3. Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousuf, Farage
4. Labour with a majority of 75
5. Trump, Biden
6. Biden
7. 4.5 percent
8. 3.2 percent
9. £126 billion
10. 58
Perhaps they have led by example.