He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
You could stop them at the point of a gun, but no Western country would ever want to go there; it would mean shooting unarmed civilians.
Other than that you can use force (not lethal force) to detain and remove them, or repel them.
Yep - i didn’t bother to mention the idea of paying the Mexican government to use force because it’s not going to happen.
The issue with using force is sheer numbers. I randomly chose Texas: there are 1,400 border patrol agents and 10,000 migrants a day. That quickly becomes impossible to detain and remove or repel them.
You are dependent on most of them remaining law abiding and peaceful
1 5% 2 24th October 2024 3 Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice 4 Labour 100 5 DeSantis and Biden 6 Biden 7 4% 8 3.5% 9 £100 bn 10 60
It really is end days if HYUFD is predicting a Labour landslide.
Yes but more Wilson 1966 level landslide than Blair 1997
Sunak for Truss wasn't a good swap.
I commend you for at least sticking to your guns and not about turning like others who were all too happy to support Truss when they felt like it. I remember reading the fawning comments over her here.
The biggest mistake the Tories made was to ditch Johnson. Whilst they were right to do it, politically it was a disastrous move.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
I mentioned my conversation with a Georgian driver about his factory owning uncle who’d decided to go to the US illegally via Mexico. He’d owned a factory in Kutaisi! And had his own detached house and car. But decided to do this. I was truly gobsmacked. Naively assumed everyone crossing the Mexican border would be vaguely from the Western hemisphere.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
What was the reason for the substantial rise under Trump (excepting 2020 when the pandemic made travel all but impossible) out of interest?
There is huge scope for the Tories to play the rest of the country against London, and to use London campaign stories in the rest of the country. This date has got to be top of the list.
4) UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%)
Conservative party, majority of 60 seats
They'll win it on immigration-xenophobia, basically doing what D Cummings allegedly proposed to R Sunak as a way to "smash" Labour:
1) slash taxes for the Tories' main base by more than they'd ever dreamed of (bye bye Reform);
2) "render" planeloads of non-white immigrants to Rwanda and boatloads of the same to le côté français of the maritime border (all good Tories know the line about beginning at Calais), while walking out of the ECHR and leaving "libtards" and internet commentators to discuss the legality and propriety (no bye bye to Lab-Con 2019 switchers); and
3) have a kind of mass mobilisation for the NHS. Did anyone think any lie in politics was too big to be told? If Starmer says no, no, that's Labour's issue, look, we've got some nurses here, just push a story about non-white quacks minting it from advising asylum seekers on how to navigate around immigration law ... before the government closed the loophole earlier in 2024, that is.
11) Most embarrassing TV appearance by a travel journalist:
Has anyone else noticed that people have got ruder?
Not on here. Both my wife and I (on holiday in North Devon) have had two strangers be very rude to us in recent days. One guy flipped me the bird when I pointed out to him the area of the pub we were in with our kids was a dog-free area. And my wife had a lady in M&S get very rude with her for invading her "personal space" when she was packing her bags at the till, and my wife was next in line for the checkout. My half-sister also now works in retail part-time and she says the same - customers every day who are huffy and rude.
Of course, not everyone is like this but these incidents do stand out, and I sort of now start to understand why so many venues and outlets have signs up saying abuse of their staff is unacceptable.
Has anyone else noticed this?
To be honest, since I’ve had physical challenges necessitating the use either of a wheelchair or a substantial walking aid, people couldn’t have been kinder or more helpful.
That's nice to hear.
I could get a wheelchair, but it's a bit of a drastic solution.
Funny you should mention that. A MAGA type woman (not much older than me) who had been perfectly mobile for the previous fortnight in our company rocked up to check-in at Fort Lauderdale in a wheelchair. First through security and first on the plane. She walked off at JFK with a spring in her step.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
(The "it's all because Biden says the borders open" answer rather misses the fact that 2019 saw close to 1 million cross, against around 0.5 million in the Obama years. Was Trump calling for an open border?)
Now, as I said below, I agree that this has been Biden's biggest policy failure.
For what it's worth, though, I think solving it requires a multipronged approach.
1. You need to follow the example of Switzerland and Norway in reducing demand for undocumented labour. Both Trump and Biden failed to fund eVerify, and it's a major issue. Firms can't easily check the immigration status of people carrying puportedly genuine SSNs.
2. You need to incentivize the Mexican government to clamp down on people crossing the country.
3. You need free trade to make sure that the Central American countries are wealthier, so that there is less demand push.
4. You need to better monitor and patrol (and yes, maybe including a wall) border areas where crossings are likely. And you need to find a way to rapidly return people, not to Mexico, but to the country of origin when they are apprehended.
Trump pushed hard on 4, but failed on the other 3. And I think you need to do all of them. Because if there is demand for illegal labour, then there will be supply. People will just find other ways to cross the border.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
I'd give Biden the edge, but only by 11/9, in terms of odds. Sean Trende, who I take very seriously, makes Trump the slight favourite.
I think that's broadly right: Biden should be narrow favourite. I think Presidential incumbents tend to get reelected, and that the US economy is doing OK. (And interest rates should start falling next year, which will benefit him slightly.) He's also (probably) facing a candidate with significant issues.
But against that, he's old and infirm and has not been seen as a particularly effective President. He won because people hate Trump, not because they are enthused by him.
My view is that, if the numbers don’t improve by spring, Biden will announce he is standing down, and possibly effective immediately. I think the following scenario is plausible in that case even if it is still a minority chance:
1. Biden steps down in the Spring - cites health as the key reason but that’s a cover.
2. Harris steps up to become President but also announces she will not stand in November - that allows Harris to be (1) President (2) the first female President and (3) to pardon Biden and his family for any potential issues without getting the electoral blowback. Harris will know that, effectively, she can’t win the nomination because her polling is so dire but this allows her to bow out but having become President (if only briefly).
3. At the Democrat convention, the 2024 candidate is chosen. I’d go Whitmer and short Newsom but I can definitely see a scenario where a deal is done that Whitmer is the Presidential pick (to solidify the Midwest vote) and Newsom as VP (so he is in top position for 2028 / 2032).
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
There is huge scope for the Tories to play the rest of the country against London, and to use London campaign stories in the rest of the country. This date has got to be top of the list.
4) UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%)
Conservative party, majority of 60 seats
They'll win it on immigration-xenophobia, basically doing what D Cummings allegedly proposed to R Sunak as a way to "smash" Labour:
1) slash taxes for the Tories' main base by more than they'd ever dreamed of (bye bye Reform);
2) "render" planeloads of non-white immigrants to Rwanda and boatloads of the same to le côté français of the maritime border (all good Tories know the line about beginning at Calais), while walking out of the ECHR and leaving "libtards" and internet commentators to discuss the legality and propriety (no bye bye to Lab-Con 2019 switchers); and
3) have a kind of mass mobilisation for the NHS. Did anyone think any lie in politics was too big to be told? If Starmer says no, no, that's Labour's issue, look, we've got some nurses here, just push a story about non-white quacks minting it from advising asylum seekers on how to navigate around immigration law ... before the government closed the loophole earlier in 2024, that is.
11) Most embarrassing TV appearance by a travel journalist:
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
You could stop them at the point of a gun, but no Western country would ever want to go there; it would mean shooting unarmed civilians.
Other than that you can use force (not lethal force) to detain and remove them, or repel them.
Yep - i didn’t bother to mention the idea of paying the Mexican government to use force because it’s not going to happen.
The issue with using force is sheer numbers. I randomly chose Texas: there are 1,400 border patrol agents and 10,000 migrants a day. That quickly becomes impossible to detain and remove or repel them.
You are dependent on most of them remaining law abiding and peaceful
And the distances are also huge. The Mexico-Texas border alone is 1,250 miles.
Plus, you have some of the world's busiest road and rail crossings.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
You could stop them at the point of a gun, but no Western country would ever want to go there; it would mean shooting unarmed civilians.
Other than that you can use force (not lethal force) to detain and remove them, or repel them.
Yep - i didn’t bother to mention the idea of paying the Mexican government to use force because it’s not going to happen.
The issue with using force is sheer numbers. I randomly chose Texas: there are 1,400 border patrol agents and 10,000 migrants a day. That quickly becomes impossible to detain and remove or repel them.
You are dependent on most of them remaining law abiding and peaceful
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
Waving your willy around is rarely as successful as saying, "how can we work together?".
I have no doubt that a President willing to open the cheque book could cut a deal with Mexico, which would have a very positive impact on the numbers arriving at the border. But Biden has shown little interest, while Trump seems obsessed with the wall, and has tended to prefer to stamp his feet.
1 5% 2 24th October 2024 3 Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice 4 Labour 100 5 DeSantis and Biden 6 Biden 7 4% 8 3.5% 9 £100 bn 10 60
It really is end days if HYUFD is predicting a Labour landslide.
Yes but more Wilson 1966 level landslide than Blair 1997
Sunak for Truss wasn't a good swap.
I commend you for at least sticking to your guns and not about turning like others who were all too happy to support Truss when they felt like it. I remember reading the fawning comments over her here.
The biggest mistake the Tories made was to ditch Johnson. Whilst they were right to do it, politically it was a disastrous move.
Initially I thought she was a terrible, terrible choice. Another butt-clenchingly awkward, odd, PM like May. But in her short time, she really won me over. She was shockingly genuine, with her intention to return the UK to prosperity, and she gave the same answers when having a convo with our own Barty Bobbins, or on the floor of the house, or when challenging Joe Biden. I say that as someone who completely disagrees with her on our level of commitment to Ukraine (one of the few things ither PBers like about her), but she believes it and sets out her reasons. Compared to the very 'mixed' motivations of both her predecessor and her successor, not to mention the heir apparent, that's a loss to our politics.
As an aside, if you want to see what migrants are willing to go through, this YouTube video on crossing the Darien Gap is well worth watching: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zft0wAPxZnc
There is huge scope for the Tories to play the rest of the country against London, and to use London campaign stories in the rest of the country. This date has got to be top of the list.
4) UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%)
Conservative party, majority of 60 seats
They'll win it on immigration-xenophobia, basically doing what D Cummings allegedly proposed to R Sunak as a way to "smash" Labour:
1) slash taxes for the Tories' main base by more than they'd ever dreamed of (bye bye Reform);
2) "render" planeloads of non-white immigrants to Rwanda and boatloads of the same to le côté français of the maritime border (all good Tories know the line about beginning at Calais), while walking out of the ECHR and leaving "libtards" and internet commentators to discuss the legality and propriety (no bye bye to Lab-Con 2019 switchers); and
3) have a kind of mass mobilisation for the NHS. Did anyone think any lie in politics was too big to be told? If Starmer says no, no, that's Labour's issue, look, we've got some nurses here, just push a story about non-white quacks minting it from advising asylum seekers on how to navigate around immigration law ... before the government closed the loophole earlier in 2024, that is.
11) Most embarrassing TV appearance by a travel journalist:
Part 1 You, and many others, are clearly fans of Lincoln. But that’s not the point under discussion at all, the point here is everyone recognising Lincoln as the war causing disruptor he clearly was - disruptor to the ideas of Freedom others felt the formation and existence of the United States, and life in it was all about.
Freedoms and Rights at the centre of American politics back then, as the argument they make America great.
Let me prove my argument the Civil War wasn’t about slavery, but about Freedom and Rights, by using this Black Mirror. Delete and replace the constitutional freedom and right to own slaves, in a state opposed to slavery, with the freedom and right to bear arms in a state opposed to carrying guns. It doesn’t matter if it’s slavery, or gun ownership, or any point of moral or political contention - it’s where that freedom and right in America comes up against a disruptor, saying “can we, while our votes will prevent it, allow {slavery} to spread into the National Territories, and to overrun us here in these Free States? If our sense of duty forbids this, then let us stand by our duty, fearlessly and effectively. Let us be diverted by none of those sophistical contrivances wherewith we are so industriously plied and belabored - contrivances such as groping for some middle ground between the right and the wrong, vain as the search for a man who should be neither a living man nor a dead man - such as a policy of "don't care" on a question about which all true men do care - such as Union appeals beseeching true Union men to yield to Disunionists, reversing the divine rule, and calling, not the sinners, but the righteous to repentance - such as invocations to Washington, imploring men to unsay what Washington said, and undo what Washington did.” Lifted straight from Lincoln’s Cooper Union Address you sent me.
Part 2 The more you send me, the more evidence it gives me that I am right. Let’s be honest in the terms we should use about Lincoln. He’s was a progressive, bringing a sense of duty to be progressive to any situation, into debate on any issue, and this made him the disruptor. I’m not saying you shouldn’t like Abraham Lincoln. But we must accept he is pressing for progressive change that is undoing what people believe are the Freedoms and Rights in America. And so Lincoln is the cause of the civil war.
The more I read up on this, when the secessionists fired the first shot in the war, their right to keep slaves not actually under immediate threat in the slave states, by all means put me right if that’s wrong. However, by this point they have clearly been pushed by their “Nationalist” opponents “clear intentions of redefining” the Freedom and Rights in US as they understood them, into a position to cede from the Union.
Recall “freedom and rights” are the words Haley used as to what the civil war was about in her instinctive answer to the question. And recall while she was, according to me, historically word perfect in her honest answer - that was used against her politically last week. However, rather than taking that answer out of the public sphere to believe it behind closed doors - a view of American history held behind closed doors, best not mentioned in public, which I claim is where it is being hidden, the US needs a more honest debate on this. And here’s the question, can the US have that honest debate on this right now? Or is the USA a place true history of Civil War is kept behind closed doors, because that same actual war hasn’t even been resolved yet?
because, biggest Elephant in the room in the USA is how the Freedom and Rights indoctrinated into Americans, from birth even like the first thing whispered into each baby’s ear after the stork has dropped it off, completely grates against progressive and nationalist politics of Lincoln’s Copper Union address: that the National government, Congress, has both the moral duty and constitutional power to override “everything”, on issues where there cannot be groping for contrivances in the middle ground.
Forget 1860 - instead take a little trip with Lincoln’s Copper Union Address through America today, and see just how many it can wind up into insurrection, even in 2024.
I rest my case here. I’ve explained myself fully, whether you want to agree or not.
The Fire Eaters had pushed the narrative that slavery had to expand or die. They also pushed a narrative that all Republicans were John Brown supporting abolitionists.
They also believed this themselves. They convinced themselves that no matter what assurances were given to them, on slavery, that the election of Lincoln was the beginning of an assault on slavery.
To remain in the USA, when pro slavery politicians were not in control of the government was intolerable to them.
No Malmsy. It was what those progressive politicians with moral duty would do with power, that was intolerable - take away your rights, take away your freedoms, take away your states sovereignty, strip it and you of democracy.
If the USA to you was all about the freedom and right to own slaves if you wanted to, carry guns if you wanted to, and progressive nationalist politicians went about saying central government have the power and moral duty to take those rights off you, then it’s no longer your USA, the one you were born into and celebrate the 4th of July in, is it? What is the 4th of July celebration, if it not celebration of freedom and rights?
And by not letting you break away from the Nation State so you can continue in a land of the free and home of the brave, then they are the ones declaring war on you, for it is you, not they, who own the true spirit of a free America.
So that’s definitely not a conflict about slavery alone, but your own freedom no less, and how to have real and functioning and fair democracy in a union of states.
If the civil war was about slavery, nowt else, then maybe we can call it over - after all, those slaves no longer on census as numbers but names, and they can stand as politicians, and run things. So yeah, let’s call it an argument about slavery, all over and in the past now.
But if it’s an argument over God given Freedoms and Rights in America, and whether those in National government can strip you of those rights, then this is an argument far from over. And history books should reflect that.
You do seem to be overlooking that the greatest right in question is the right of slaves not to be slaves. It is a big important thing.
No, as far as Moonrabbit is concerned, it doesn’t come into the calculation. It’s the sort of wilful blindness that underpinned the lost cause narrative for nearly a century.
There is huge scope for the Tories to play the rest of the country against London, and to use London campaign stories in the rest of the country. This date has got to be top of the list.
4) UK General Election outcome: winning party + majority (±10%)
Conservative party, majority of 60 seats
They'll win it on immigration-xenophobia, basically doing what D Cummings allegedly proposed to R Sunak as a way to "smash" Labour:
1) slash taxes for the Tories' main base by more than they'd ever dreamed of (bye bye Reform);
2) "render" planeloads of non-white immigrants to Rwanda and boatloads of the same to le côté français of the maritime border (all good Tories know the line about beginning at Calais), while walking out of the ECHR and leaving "libtards" and internet commentators to discuss the legality and propriety (no bye bye to Lab-Con 2019 switchers); and
3) have a kind of mass mobilisation for the NHS. Did anyone think any lie in politics was too big to be told? If Starmer says no, no, that's Labour's issue, look, we've got some nurses here, just push a story about non-white quacks minting it from advising asylum seekers on how to navigate around immigration law ... before the government closed the loophole earlier in 2024, that is.
11) Most embarrassing TV appearance by a travel journalist:
Has anyone else noticed that people have got ruder?
Not on here. Both my wife and I (on holiday in North Devon) have had two strangers be very rude to us in recent days. One guy flipped me the bird when I pointed out to him the area of the pub we were in with our kids was a dog-free area. And my wife had a lady in M&S get very rude with her for invading her "personal space" when she was packing her bags at the till, and my wife was next in line for the checkout. My half-sister also now works in retail part-time and she says the same - customers every day who are huffy and rude.
Of course, not everyone is like this but these incidents do stand out, and I sort of now start to understand why so many venues and outlets have signs up saying abuse of their staff is unacceptable.
Has anyone else noticed this?
To be honest, since I’ve had physical challenges necessitating the use either of a wheelchair or a substantial walking aid, people couldn’t have been kinder or more helpful.
That's nice to hear.
I could get a wheelchair, but it's a bit of a drastic solution.
Funny you should mention that. A MAGA type woman (not much older than me) who had been perfectly mobile for the previous fortnight in our company rocked up to check-in at Fort Lauderdale in a wheelchair. First through security and first on the plane. She walked off at JFK with a spring in her step.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
I mentioned my conversation with a Georgian driver about his factory owning uncle who’d decided to go to the US illegally via Mexico. He’d owned a factory in Kutaisi! And had his own detached house and car. But decided to do this. I was truly gobsmacked. Naively assumed everyone crossing the Mexican border would be vaguely from the Western hemisphere.
An EU citizen friend of mine was appointed to an Academic post in a prestigious US University. She had previously worked 5 years in the USA and is married to a US citizen. She has a brilliant academic CV.
You would have thought that she would find getting a visa straightforward, but the US embassy in London didn't have any visa slots for months after she was due to start (this was 2021, so may have been some covid effect). She asked the US University for advice. They put her in touch with an immigration lawyer in Monterey in Mexico. She stayed in a cheap migrant hotel there for two weeks, eating curry with all the others doing the same. The hostel specialised in subcontinental migrants.
2 weeks later she had her legal visa and took up her post. Both she and I were puzzled and bemused by the process, but that was how to do it.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
I'd give Biden the edge, but only by 11/9, in terms of odds. Sean Trende, who I take very seriously, makes Trump the slight favourite.
I think that's broadly right: Biden should be narrow favourite. I think Presidential incumbents tend to get reelected, and that the US economy is doing OK. (And interest rates should start falling next year, which will benefit him slightly.) He's also (probably) facing a candidate with significant issues.
But against that, he's old and infirm and has not been seen as a particularly effective President. He won because people hate Trump, not because they are enthused by him.
My view is that, if the numbers don’t improve by spring, Biden will announce he is standing down, and possibly effective immediately. I think the following scenario is plausible in that case even if it is still a minority chance:
1. Biden steps down in the Spring - cites health as the key reason but that’s a cover.
2. Harris steps up to become President but also announces she will not stand in November - that allows Harris to be (1) President (2) the first female President and (3) to pardon Biden and his family for any potential issues without getting the electoral blowback. Harris will know that, effectively, she can’t win the nomination because her polling is so dire but this allows her to bow out but having become President (if only briefly).
3. At the Democrat convention, the 2024 candidate is chosen. I’d go Whitmer and short Newsom but I can definitely see a scenario where a deal is done that Whitmer is the Presidential pick (to solidify the Midwest vote) and Newsom as VP (so he is in top position for 2028 / 2032).
There is nothing to pardon Biden for except in the fantasies of right-wing conspiracy theorists.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
I'd give Biden the edge, but only by 11/9, in terms of odds. Sean Trende, who I take very seriously, makes Trump the slight favourite.
I think that's broadly right: Biden should be narrow favourite. I think Presidential incumbents tend to get reelected, and that the US economy is doing OK. (And interest rates should start falling next year, which will benefit him slightly.) He's also (probably) facing a candidate with significant issues.
But against that, he's old and infirm and has not been seen as a particularly effective President. He won because people hate Trump, not because they are enthused by him.
He won last time because he isn't Donald Trump.
If Donald Trump, an elderly man showing alarming signs of cognitive decline and a failed and defeated president who has spent most of the last four years trying to explain why he first rigged an election and when that failed launched an abortive coup, is the Republican candidate Biden will likely win again unless the economy tanks or he suffers a major health episode.
If Haley or even De Santis were the candidate the Republicans would be strolling to victory and Biden would likely be the first one-term Democratic president not to seek re-election since James Buchanan.
This is, along with their multiple attempts at voter fraud, one of the more disturbing things about the current Republican Party. They seem to have completely lost touch with reality.
I disagree. They are very much in touch with reality. The issue is a prisoners’ dilemma.
If all republicans cooperated and excluded Trump/ selected another candidate they would likely win the White House
But there enough Trump fanatics among the base that any individual politician who opposes Trump runs the risk of the end of their career.
The fundamental problem is that they have no way to exclude those Trumpists from the party/primaries
The reality is that they need the Trump fire to burn itself out. I don’t see anyone able to sustain it assuming he loses in 2024. (Whether he is the GOP nominee or not - I don’t think he runs as an independent because that costs too much, but he sets himself up as the “voice of the people” that keeps the media spotlight on him and maximises the opportunity to grift at minimum cost).
So think of this as the GOP’s 1983. It’s a long road back but they will get there.
Am saddened if NOT shocked to see that the poster of present PB prediction queries, has seen fit to prejudge responses based upon his own blighted, blinkered standards.
Soooooooooo 2023!
Let us wait for the future to unfold itself, no doubt in ways that will baffled the benighted!
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
(The "it's all because Biden says the borders open" answer rather misses the fact that 2019 saw close to 1 million cross, against around 0.5 million in the Obama years. Was Trump calling for an open border?)
Now, as I said below, I agree that this has been Biden's biggest policy failure.
For what it's worth, though, I think solving it requires a multipronged approach.
1. You need to follow the example of Switzerland and Norway in reducing demand for undocumented labour. Both Trump and Biden failed to fund eVerify, and it's a major issue. Firms can't easily check the immigration status of people carrying puportedly genuine SSNs.
2. You need to incentivize the Mexican government to clamp down on people crossing the country.
3. You need free trade to make sure that the Central American countries are wealthier, so that there is less demand push.
4. You need to better monitor and patrol (and yes, maybe including a wall) border areas where crossings are likely. And you need to find a way to rapidly return people, not to Mexico, but to the country of origin when they are apprehended.
Trump pushed hard on 4, but failed on the other 3. And I think you need to do all of them. Because if there is demand for illegal labour, then there will be supply. People will just find other ways to cross the border.
Re your point on numbers surging under Trump, yes 2019 did see a surge (as did 2014 etc) but before then, numbers were coming down. See the first point from an organisation saying Trump was wrong and what they say about 2017/8 immigration.
The simple fact is that Biden has encouraged far more people to come in. This again from an organisation that is making an anti-Trump point but where the absolute numbers show just how much the surge has been since Biden took over - the number of encounters (ie law enforcement encountering immigrants) for a comparable period of Trump v Biden (and taking into account the surge of 2019 for Trump) shows it was 3.5x higher under Biden v Trump
Re the solutions, I think they are broadly right but they are more long term solutions - Biden faces an election within 12 months and he is losing control of the issue (if he had it originally)
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
I'd give Biden the edge, but only by 11/9, in terms of odds. Sean Trende, who I take very seriously, makes Trump the slight favourite.
I think that's broadly right: Biden should be narrow favourite. I think Presidential incumbents tend to get reelected, and that the US economy is doing OK. (And interest rates should start falling next year, which will benefit him slightly.) He's also (probably) facing a candidate with significant issues.
But against that, he's old and infirm and has not been seen as a particularly effective President. He won because people hate Trump, not because they are enthused by him.
My view is that, if the numbers don’t improve by spring, Biden will announce he is standing down, and possibly effective immediately. I think the following scenario is plausible in that case even if it is still a minority chance:
1. Biden steps down in the Spring - cites health as the key reason but that’s a cover.
2. Harris steps up to become President but also announces she will not stand in November - that allows Harris to be (1) President (2) the first female President and (3) to pardon Biden and his family for any potential issues without getting the electoral blowback. Harris will know that, effectively, she can’t win the nomination because her polling is so dire but this allows her to bow out but having become President (if only briefly).
3. At the Democrat convention, the 2024 candidate is chosen. I’d go Whitmer and short Newsom but I can definitely see a scenario where a deal is done that Whitmer is the Presidential pick (to solidify the Midwest vote) and Newsom as VP (so he is in top position for 2028 / 2032).
There is nothing to pardon Biden for except in the fantasies of right-wing conspiracy theorists.
The irony is, if Biden really *were* using the US justice system for his own ends, he could have thwarted all this silliness over the House Committee by pardoning Hunter.
But he isn't.
If he wanted to be Machiavellian I suppose he could pardon Trump for his role the DC riots - which would then mean he'd admitted insurrection and would be ineligible under the 14th. But I don't think he's quite that sort of politician. (Besides, it didn't work quite as intended for Gerald Ford.)
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
Waving your willy around is rarely as successful as saying, "how can we work together?".
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
I'd give Biden the edge, but only by 11/9, in terms of odds. Sean Trende, who I take very seriously, makes Trump the slight favourite.
I think that's broadly right: Biden should be narrow favourite. I think Presidential incumbents tend to get reelected, and that the US economy is doing OK. (And interest rates should start falling next year, which will benefit him slightly.) He's also (probably) facing a candidate with significant issues.
But against that, he's old and infirm and has not been seen as a particularly effective President. He won because people hate Trump, not because they are enthused by him.
My view is that, if the numbers don’t improve by spring, Biden will announce he is standing down, and possibly effective immediately. I think the following scenario is plausible in that case even if it is still a minority chance:
1. Biden steps down in the Spring - cites health as the key reason but that’s a cover.
2. Harris steps up to become President but also announces she will not stand in November - that allows Harris to be (1) President (2) the first female President and (3) to pardon Biden and his family for any potential issues without getting the electoral blowback. Harris will know that, effectively, she can’t win the nomination because her polling is so dire but this allows her to bow out but having become President (if only briefly).
3. At the Democrat convention, the 2024 candidate is chosen. I’d go Whitmer and short Newsom but I can definitely see a scenario where a deal is done that Whitmer is the Presidential pick (to solidify the Midwest vote) and Newsom as VP (so he is in top position for 2028 / 2032).
There is nothing to pardon Biden for except in the fantasies of right-wing conspiracy theorists.
Maybe not - there is certainly nowhere near enough evidence to impeach Biden.
But let’s be honest. We’ve heard the likes of “the laptop is Russian disinformation”, “Joe didn’t discuss anything with Hunter “ etc etc and then found out that actually they did happen / were true. So, if I was you, I probably wouldn’t be making out such statements as hard facts when you actually haven’t a clue what has actually gone on.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
So you didn't either of my posts, where it is estimated that just 10% of the migrants make it to the border. The rest dissolve into Mexican society. I suspect even in the most recalcitrant of Mexican states, the peso will do the talking.
Am saddened if NOT shocked to see that the poster of present PB prediction queries, has seen fit to prejudge responses based upon his own blighted, blinkered standards.
Soooooooooo 2023!
Let us wait for the future to unfold itself, no doubt in ways that will baffled the benighted!
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
So you didn't read my earlier post where it is estimated that just 10% of the migrants make it to the border. The rest dissolve into Mexican society. I suspect even in the most recalcitrant of Mexican states, the peso will do the talking.
I did read that. But my points are (1) why they dissolve and (2) what Mexico can do to enforce repatriation. On (2), probably little given most of their Federal law enforcement efforts are against the cartels. On (1), it’s not that the migrants want Mexico - they want the US. But they will take Mexico because - as I pointed out in another post - Mexico is relatively wealthier than the countries from whence they came and relatively easier to integrate into because of the language issue (that’s not the case for non-LatAm migrants)
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
So you didn't read my earlier post where it is estimated that just 10% of the migrants make it to the border. The rest dissolve into Mexican society. I suspect even in the most recalcitrant of Mexican states, the peso will do the talking.
I did read that. But my points are (1) why they dissolve and (2) what Mexico can do to enforce repatriation. On (2), probably little given most of their Federal law enforcement efforts are against the cartels. On (1), it’s not that the migrants want Mexico - they want the US. But they will take Mexico because - as I pointed out in another post - Mexico is relatively wealthier than the countries from whence they came and relatively easier to integrate into because of the language issue (that’s not the case for non-LatAm migrants)
So they continue to the US because 'it's far easier' for Mexico to let them and at the same time stay in Mexico because 'it's relatively wealthier than where they came from?'
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
So you are saying it is and isn't a failed state.
I think most people understand the likes of Syria or Libya when you say “failed state”
Mexico is a serious law and order problem. Other aspects of the state work in those provinces
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
So you didn't read my earlier post where it is estimated that just 10% of the migrants make it to the border. The rest dissolve into Mexican society. I suspect even in the most recalcitrant of Mexican states, the peso will do the talking.
I did read that. But my points are (1) why they dissolve and (2) what Mexico can do to enforce repatriation. On (2), probably little given most of their Federal law enforcement efforts are against the cartels. On (1), it’s not that the migrants want Mexico - they want the US. But they will take Mexico because - as I pointed out in another post - Mexico is relatively wealthier than the countries from whence they came and relatively easier to integrate into because of the language issue (that’s not the case for non-LatAm migrants)
The CNN report was suggesting that with the right incentives Mexican law makers are content to instruct law enforcement to turn the caravan back.
Apparently it's not just Latinos but people from the Caribbean and elsewhere who are making the journey.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
So you are saying it is and isn't a failed state.
According to the Bertelsmann Transformation Index - which is probably the leading non-governmental source for what is / not a failed state - Mexico is not a failed state but does have highly defective characteristics.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
I'd give Biden the edge, but only by 11/9, in terms of odds. Sean Trende, who I take very seriously, makes Trump the slight favourite.
I think that's broadly right: Biden should be narrow favourite. I think Presidential incumbents tend to get reelected, and that the US economy is doing OK. (And interest rates should start falling next year, which will benefit him slightly.) He's also (probably) facing a candidate with significant issues.
But against that, he's old and infirm and has not been seen as a particularly effective President. He won because people hate Trump, not because they are enthused by him.
He won last time because he isn't Donald Trump.
If Donald Trump, an elderly man showing alarming signs of cognitive decline and a failed and defeated president who has spent most of the last four years trying to explain why he first rigged an election and when that failed launched an abortive coup, is the Republican candidate Biden will likely win again unless the economy tanks or he suffers a major health episode.
If Haley or even De Santis were the candidate the Republicans would be strolling to victory and Biden would likely be the first one-term Democratic president not to seek re-election since James Buchanan.
This is, along with their multiple attempts at voter fraud, one of the more disturbing things about the current Republican Party. They seem to have completely lost touch with reality.
I disagree. They are very much in touch with reality. The issue is a prisoners’ dilemma.
If all republicans cooperated and excluded Trump/ selected another candidate they would likely win the White House
But there enough Trump fanatics among the base that any individual politician who opposes Trump runs the risk of the end of their career.
The fundamental problem is that they have no way to exclude those Trumpists from the party/primaries
The reality is that they need the Trump fire to burn itself out. I don’t see anyone able to sustain it assuming he loses in 2024. (Whether he is the GOP nominee or not - I don’t think he runs as an independent because that costs too much, but he sets himself up as the “voice of the people” that keeps the media spotlight on him and maximises the opportunity to grift at minimum cost).
So think of this as the GOP’s 1983. It’s a long road back but they will get there.
Problem might be Trump handing on the baton to one of his sons. He acts like a mafia boss so this would not be out of character. And the base may very well be happy to be led in that direction.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
So you didn't read my earlier post where it is estimated that just 10% of the migrants make it to the border. The rest dissolve into Mexican society. I suspect even in the most recalcitrant of Mexican states, the peso will do the talking.
I did read that. But my points are (1) why they dissolve and (2) what Mexico can do to enforce repatriation. On (2), probably little given most of their Federal law enforcement efforts are against the cartels. On (1), it’s not that the migrants want Mexico - they want the US. But they will take Mexico because - as I pointed out in another post - Mexico is relatively wealthier than the countries from whence they came and relatively easier to integrate into because of the language issue (that’s not the case for non-LatAm migrants)
The CNN report was suggesting that with the right incentives Mexican law makers are content to instruct law enforcement to turn the caravan back.
Apparently it's not just Latinos but people from the Caribbean and elsewhere who are making the journey.
Yes, I mentioned this earlier - the biggest surge individually is from non-LatAm countries where people see the Mexico route as the easiest way to get in and the cartels facilitate the traffic.
I’m sure Mexico could probably take some measures to stem the traffic but they also have to take into account that people trafficking is lucrative for the cartels - so taking US money for that risks the cartels taking action against the Mexican state.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
So you are saying it is and isn't a failed state.
According to the Bertelsmann Transformation Index - which is probably the leading non-governmental source for what is / not a failed state - Mexico is not a failed state but does have highly defective characteristics.
But I am sure you know better…
I'm not talking about whether it is or not. I'm talking about the holes in your argument.
You have said Mexico isn't a failed state so it could stop the migrants if it wanted.
You then say Mexico has lost control of its territory (which would make it a failed state) so some of the migrants are staying there but that's still Biden's fault because reasons.
You also say migrants don't stay in Mexico except for all the ones that do.
Ultimately your argument is totally illogical. It does not stand up to a minute's scrutiny.
And you've still not explained why if Biden 'throwing open the door' is the reason for it, the current surge in migrant numbers started under Trump.
As an aside, if you want to see what migrants are willing to go through, this YouTube video on crossing the Darien Gap is well worth watching: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zft0wAPxZnc
There was an episode of Levison Wood's "Walking The Americas" which went through the Darien Gap. It was quite something. Bumped into a couple of formerly Pakistan lads who'd ended up there via being bus drivers in London as far as I remember.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
I'd give Biden the edge, but only by 11/9, in terms of odds. Sean Trende, who I take very seriously, makes Trump the slight favourite.
I think that's broadly right: Biden should be narrow favourite. I think Presidential incumbents tend to get reelected, and that the US economy is doing OK. (And interest rates should start falling next year, which will benefit him slightly.) He's also (probably) facing a candidate with significant issues.
But against that, he's old and infirm and has not been seen as a particularly effective President. He won because people hate Trump, not because they are enthused by him.
My view is that, if the numbers don’t improve by spring, Biden will announce he is standing down, and possibly effective immediately. I think the following scenario is plausible in that case even if it is still a minority chance:
1. Biden steps down in the Spring - cites health as the key reason but that’s a cover.
2. Harris steps up to become President but also announces she will not stand in November - that allows Harris to be (1) President (2) the first female President and (3) to pardon Biden and his family for any potential issues without getting the electoral blowback. Harris will know that, effectively, she can’t win the nomination because her polling is so dire but this allows her to bow out but having become President (if only briefly).
3. At the Democrat convention, the 2024 candidate is chosen. I’d go Whitmer and short Newsom but I can definitely see a scenario where a deal is done that Whitmer is the Presidential pick (to solidify the Midwest vote) and Newsom as VP (so he is in top position for 2028 / 2032).
Pardon Biden for what ? Among your more ridiculous idea, that’s one if the more ridiculous.
Part 1 You, and many others, are clearly fans of Lincoln. But that’s not the point under discussion at all, the point here is everyone recognising Lincoln as the war causing disruptor he clearly was - disruptor to the ideas of Freedom others felt the formation and existence of the United States, and life in it was all about.
Freedoms and Rights at the centre of American politics back then, as the argument they make America great.
Let me prove my argument the Civil War wasn’t about slavery, but about Freedom and Rights, by using this Black Mirror. Delete and replace the constitutional freedom and right to own slaves, in a state opposed to slavery, with the freedom and right to bear arms in a state opposed to carrying guns. It doesn’t matter if it’s slavery, or gun ownership, or any point of moral or political contention - it’s where that freedom and right in America comes up against a disruptor, saying “can we, while our votes will prevent it, allow {slavery} to spread into the National Territories, and to overrun us here in these Free States? If our sense of duty forbids this, then let us stand by our duty, fearlessly and effectively. Let us be diverted by none of those sophistical contrivances wherewith we are so industriously plied and belabored - contrivances such as groping for some middle ground between the right and the wrong, vain as the search for a man who should be neither a living man nor a dead man - such as a policy of "don't care" on a question about which all true men do care - such as Union appeals beseeching true Union men to yield to Disunionists, reversing the divine rule, and calling, not the sinners, but the righteous to repentance - such as invocations to Washington, imploring men to unsay what Washington said, and undo what Washington did.” Lifted straight from Lincoln’s Cooper Union Address you sent me.
Part 2 The more you send me, the more evidence it gives me that I am right. Let’s be honest in the terms we should use about Lincoln. He’s was a progressive, bringing a sense of duty to be progressive to any situation, into debate on any issue, and this made him the disruptor. I’m not saying you shouldn’t like Abraham Lincoln. But we must accept he is pressing for progressive change that is undoing what people believe are the Freedoms and Rights in America. And so Lincoln is the cause of the civil war.
The more I read up on this, when the secessionists fired the first shot in the war, their right to keep slaves not actually under immediate threat in the slave states, by all means put me right if that’s wrong. However, by this point they have clearly been pushed by their “Nationalist” opponents “clear intentions of redefining” the Freedom and Rights in US as they understood them, into a position to cede from the Union.
Recall “freedom and rights” are the words Haley used as to what the civil war was about in her instinctive answer to the question. And recall while she was, according to me, historically word perfect in her honest answer - that was used against her politically last week. However, rather than taking that answer out of the public sphere to believe it behind closed doors - a view of American history held behind closed doors, best not mentioned in public, which I claim is where it is being hidden, the US needs a more honest debate on this. And here’s the question, can the US have that honest debate on this right now? Or is the USA a place true history of Civil War is kept behind closed doors, because that same actual war hasn’t even been resolved yet?
because, biggest Elephant in the room in the USA is how the Freedom and Rights indoctrinated into Americans, from birth even like the first thing whispered into each baby’s ear after the stork has dropped it off, completely grates against progressive and nationalist politics of Lincoln’s Copper Union address: that the National government, Congress, has both the moral duty and constitutional power to override “everything”, on issues where there cannot be groping for contrivances in the middle ground.
Forget 1860 - instead take a little trip with Lincoln’s Copper Union Address through America today, and see just how many it can wind up into insurrection, even in 2024.
I rest my case here. I’ve explained myself fully, whether you want to agree or not.
The Fire Eaters had pushed the narrative that slavery had to expand or die. They also pushed a narrative that all Republicans were John Brown supporting abolitionists.
They also believed this themselves. They convinced themselves that no matter what assurances were given to them, on slavery, that the election of Lincoln was the beginning of an assault on slavery.
To remain in the USA, when pro slavery politicians were not in control of the government was intolerable to them.
They also believed that even if Lincoln wasn't going to do lead an assault on slavery himself - and he well might - the North would do so sooner or later, one way or another. And that it had the economic and political muscle to do so, if it voted as a block (as it just had under Lincoln, and as it might well continue to do if slavery was *the* defining divisive issue.
Except that any move against slavery required super majorities in both the House and Senate. Which were not possible. Until the South seceded!
Not really. It required a SCOTUS which ruled slavery unconstitutional. And the South had enough experience of judicial manipulation of the constitution - Dred Scott and all that - to know it was possible. And a permanent Northern majority in the Senate and White House could produce an anti-slavery Court.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
So you are saying it is and isn't a failed state.
According to the Bertelsmann Transformation Index - which is probably the leading non-governmental source for what is / not a failed state - Mexico is not a failed state but does have highly defective characteristics.
But I am sure you know better…
I'm not talking about whether it is or not. I'm talking about the holes in your argument.
You have said Mexico isn't a failed state so it could stop the migrants if it wanted.
You then say Mexico has lost control of its territory (which would make it a failed state) so some of the migrants are staying there but that's still Biden's fault because reasons.
You also say migrants don't stay in Mexico except for all the ones that do.
Ultimately your argument is totally illogical. It does not stand up to a minute's scrutiny.
And you've still not explained why if Biden 'throwing open the door' is the reason for it, the current surge in migrant numbers started under Trump.
I’m using an internationally accepted definition of what is a failed state and what is not, and you seem to reject that. That’s your choice but it’s not illogical. To repeat, Mexico is not a failed state overall but it does have certain characteristics of one. And that is recognised by internationally recognised bodies.
I also didn’t say all migrants stay in Mexico. What I said was what they want is the US but they will take Mexico because - in many cases - relatively it is better than where they came from. Again it is all in the original posts for everyone to see.
As for the current surge started to Trump, as I said, Trump saw a surge in 2019 (and other years had seen a surge) but - as I pointed out and actually posted the links to the original reports - the rate has massively surged under Biden.
You can rage against the facts all you want and try and claim I said things I didn’t but, in the US, it is clear migrant numbers are surging and the Administration is seen to be at fault.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
I'd give Biden the edge, but only by 11/9, in terms of odds. Sean Trende, who I take very seriously, makes Trump the slight favourite.
I think that's broadly right: Biden should be narrow favourite. I think Presidential incumbents tend to get reelected, and that the US economy is doing OK. (And interest rates should start falling next year, which will benefit him slightly.) He's also (probably) facing a candidate with significant issues.
But against that, he's old and infirm and has not been seen as a particularly effective President. He won because people hate Trump, not because they are enthused by him.
My view is that, if the numbers don’t improve by spring, Biden will announce he is standing down, and possibly effective immediately. I think the following scenario is plausible in that case even if it is still a minority chance:
1. Biden steps down in the Spring - cites health as the key reason but that’s a cover.
2. Harris steps up to become President but also announces she will not stand in November - that allows Harris to be (1) President (2) the first female President and (3) to pardon Biden and his family for any potential issues without getting the electoral blowback. Harris will know that, effectively, she can’t win the nomination because her polling is so dire but this allows her to bow out but having become President (if only briefly).
3. At the Democrat convention, the 2024 candidate is chosen. I’d go Whitmer and short Newsom but I can definitely see a scenario where a deal is done that Whitmer is the Presidential pick (to solidify the Midwest vote) and Newsom as VP (so he is in top position for 2028 / 2032).
Pardon Biden for what ? Among your more ridiculous idea, that’s one if the more ridiculous.
Still sticking to your claim that this is all a big Russian disinformation campaign or have you actually read the latest updates as to what the Democrat party line is on what Hunter and Joe were doing (hint: it’s pretty far removed from what you so confidentially stated before)
As I said before, none of us has a clue about what has gone on but what has been shown is that many of the original denials about Hunter / Joe were actually false. So you may want to be less confident in thinking you know the truth.
I assume we can post our answers on this thread up to 6th January even once a new thread appears? I need some time to work on these!
That would be fine but I think the threads usually close for comments after a couple of days. I would say just post on whichever thread is current and ideally PM me to let me know.
I will trawl the threads to pick up any late entries before the end of Saturday 6th January 2024.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
So you are saying it is and isn't a failed state.
According to the Bertelsmann Transformation Index - which is probably the leading non-governmental source for what is / not a failed state - Mexico is not a failed state but does have highly defective characteristics.
But I am sure you know better…
I'm not talking about whether it is or not. I'm talking about the holes in your argument.
You have said Mexico isn't a failed state so it could stop the migrants if it wanted.
You then say Mexico has lost control of its territory (which would make it a failed state) so some of the migrants are staying there but that's still Biden's fault because reasons.
You also say migrants don't stay in Mexico except for all the ones that do.
Ultimately your argument is totally illogical. It does not stand up to a minute's scrutiny.
And you've still not explained why if Biden 'throwing open the door' is the reason for it, the current surge in migrant numbers started under Trump.
I’m using an internationally accepted definition of what is a failed state and what is not, and you seem to reject that. That’s your choice but it’s not illogical. To repeat, Mexico is not a failed state overall but it does have certain characteristics of one. And that is recognised by internationally recognised bodies.
I also didn’t say all migrants stay in Mexico. What I said was what they want is the US but they will take Mexico because - in many cases - relatively it is better than where they came from. Again it is all in the original posts for everyone to see.
As for the current surge started to Trump, as I said, Trump saw a surge in 2019 (and other years had seen a surge) but - as I pointed out and actually posted the links to the original reports - the rate has massively surged under Biden.
You can rage against the facts all you want and try and claim I said things I didn’t but, in the US, it is clear migrant numbers are surging and the Administration is seen to be at fault.
You have said these things. Whether you meant them is another question. You have repeatedly made contradictory assertions and tried to wriggle out by giving misdirected replies.
The rate has continued surging under Biden. Nobody is disputing that. Heck, I’ve even posted the figures for you several times. But it was surging under Trump as well. In fact, the current rate is a pretty natural progression from levels in summer 2020.
Yet you have laid the whole blame on Biden. I have asked - twice - how you account for the rise beginning before he took office. And you have twice refused to reply.
Your analysis is certainly not based on facts. Look at the rubbish you spout about Biden resigning upthread and your weird obsession with Hunter Biden’s laptop. Or your false claims about Trump’s gagging order. (It’s amusing you told another poster they shouldn’t say things with certainty because they know nothing about it - incidentally I think you meant ‘confidently’ not ‘confidentially.’)
It’s based on your irrational loathing of Biden for daring to beat Trump. As you demonstrated in calling him ‘Slow Joe’ while criticising @TSE for calling Trump ‘odious.’
And that’s why, ultimately, your so-called analysis keeps getting called out. It’s because it’s nonsensical.
1. 10% 2. 31st October 2024 3. Same as they are now 4. NOM - Labour 10 seats short 5. Haley and Biden 6. Haley (or GOP if we just want the winning party) 7. 4.5% 8. 3.1% 9. £87 billion 10. 50
I agree with Labour winning most seats but falling short of a majority. 130 gains (after boundary changes) is a lot to make in a single election.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
I'd give Biden the edge, but only by 11/9, in terms of odds. Sean Trende, who I take very seriously, makes Trump the slight favourite.
I think that's broadly right: Biden should be narrow favourite. I think Presidential incumbents tend to get reelected, and that the US economy is doing OK. (And interest rates should start falling next year, which will benefit him slightly.) He's also (probably) facing a candidate with significant issues.
But against that, he's old and infirm and has not been seen as a particularly effective President. He won because people hate Trump, not because they are enthused by him.
My view is that, if the numbers don’t improve by spring, Biden will announce he is standing down, and possibly effective immediately. I think the following scenario is plausible in that case even if it is still a minority chance:
1. Biden steps down in the Spring - cites health as the key reason but that’s a cover.
2. Harris steps up to become President but also announces she will not stand in November - that allows Harris to be (1) President (2) the first female President and (3) to pardon Biden and his family for any potential issues without getting the electoral blowback. Harris will know that, effectively, she can’t win the nomination because her polling is so dire but this allows her to bow out but having become President (if only briefly).
3. At the Democrat convention, the 2024 candidate is chosen. I’d go Whitmer and short Newsom but I can definitely see a scenario where a deal is done that Whitmer is the Presidential pick (to solidify the Midwest vote) and Newsom as VP (so he is in top position for 2028 / 2032).
There is nothing to pardon Biden for except in the fantasies of right-wing conspiracy theorists.
Maybe not - there is certainly nowhere near enough evidence to impeach Biden.
But let’s be honest. We’ve heard the likes of “the laptop is Russian disinformation”, “Joe didn’t discuss anything with Hunter “ etc etc and then found out that actually they did happen / were true. So, if I was you, I probably wouldn’t be making out such statements as hard facts when you actually haven’t a clue what has actually gone on.
Let’s be honest, a large part of the US right parrots lies on a regular basis. Some are deliberately lying for political advantage; others are wilfully negligent about checking facts; still others are just dumb.
You regularly post complete nonsense. You have predicted scandal after scandal will topple Biden, and none of those predictions came true. This is a thread about predictions. Let’s judge you by how few of your past predictions came true.
Or we can wait 6 months to see your Harris predictions here fail.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
So you are saying it is and isn't a failed state.
I think most people understand the likes of Syria or Libya when you say “failed state”
Mexico is a serious law and order problem. Other aspects of the state work in those provinces
Again, it isn't about whether it is or not (for the record, it isn't). It's about whether one poster can get away with twisting facts and chopping logic to suit whatever argument suits his agenda at a particular moment.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
(The "it's all because Biden says the borders open" answer rather misses the fact that 2019 saw close to 1 million cross, against around 0.5 million in the Obama years. Was Trump calling for an open border?)
Now, as I said below, I agree that this has been Biden's biggest policy failure.
For what it's worth, though, I think solving it requires a multipronged approach.
1. You need to follow the example of Switzerland and Norway in reducing demand for undocumented labour. Both Trump and Biden failed to fund eVerify, and it's a major issue. Firms can't easily check the immigration status of people carrying puportedly genuine SSNs.
2. You need to incentivize the Mexican government to clamp down on people crossing the country.
3. You need free trade to make sure that the Central American countries are wealthier, so that there is less demand push.
4. You need to better monitor and patrol (and yes, maybe including a wall) border areas where crossings are likely. And you need to find a way to rapidly return people, not to Mexico, but to the country of origin when they are apprehended.
Trump pushed hard on 4, but failed on the other 3. And I think you need to do all of them. Because if there is demand for illegal labour, then there will be supply. People will just find other ways to cross the border.
Re your point on numbers surging under Trump, yes 2019 did see a surge (as did 2014 etc) but before then, numbers were coming down. See the first point from an organisation saying Trump was wrong and what they say about 2017/8 immigration.
The simple fact is that Biden has encouraged far more people to come in. This again from an organisation that is making an anti-Trump point but where the absolute numbers show just how much the surge has been since Biden took over - the number of encounters (ie law enforcement encountering immigrants) for a comparable period of Trump v Biden (and taking into account the surge of 2019 for Trump) shows it was 3.5x higher under Biden v Trump
Re the solutions, I think they are broadly right but they are more long term solutions - Biden faces an election within 12 months and he is losing control of the issue (if he had it originally)
So, border crossings collapsed between 1999 and 2017.
They then have risen sharply since. They rose by 50% in 2018. They rose by the same in 2019. Covid hit in 2020. And then they continued to rising.
Now, sure, I completely agree that Biden has been a failure. But crossing doubled under Trump too! And he didn't exactly say "borders open folks!"
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
So you are saying it is and isn't a failed state.
Are you saying Ukraine is a failed state?
Has Mexico been invaded? I missed that.
No but you just said "A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state." You made no qualification regarding invasion.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
So you are saying it is and isn't a failed state.
According to the Bertelsmann Transformation Index - which is probably the leading non-governmental source for what is / not a failed state - Mexico is not a failed state but does have highly defective characteristics.
But I am sure you know better…
I'm not talking about whether it is or not. I'm talking about the holes in your argument.
You have said Mexico isn't a failed state so it could stop the migrants if it wanted.
You then say Mexico has lost control of its territory (which would make it a failed state) so some of the migrants are staying there but that's still Biden's fault because reasons.
You also say migrants don't stay in Mexico except for all the ones that do.
Ultimately your argument is totally illogical. It does not stand up to a minute's scrutiny.
And you've still not explained why if Biden 'throwing open the door' is the reason for it, the current surge in migrant numbers started under Trump.
I’m using an internationally accepted definition of what is a failed state and what is not, and you seem to reject that. That’s your choice but it’s not illogical. To repeat, Mexico is not a failed state overall but it does have certain characteristics of one. And that is recognised by internationally recognised bodies.
I also didn’t say all migrants stay in Mexico. What I said was what they want is the US but they will take Mexico because - in many cases - relatively it is better than where they came from. Again it is all in the original posts for everyone to see.
As for the current surge started to Trump, as I said, Trump saw a surge in 2019 (and other years had seen a surge) but - as I pointed out and actually posted the links to the original reports - the rate has massively surged under Biden.
You can rage against the facts all you want and try and claim I said things I didn’t but, in the US, it is clear migrant numbers are surging and the Administration is seen to be at fault.
You have said these things. Whether you meant them is another question. You have repeatedly made contradictory assertions and tried to wriggle out by giving misdirected replies.
The rate has continued surging under Biden. Nobody is disputing that. Heck, I’ve even posted the figures for you several times. But it was surging under Trump as well. In fact, the current rate is a pretty natural progression from levels in summer 2020.
Yet you have laid the whole blame on Biden. I have asked - twice - how you account for the rise beginning before he took office. And you have twice refused to reply.
Your analysis is certainly not based on facts. Look at the rubbish you spout about Biden resigning upthread and your weird obsession with Hunter Biden’s laptop. Or your false claims about Trump’s gagging order. It’s amusing you told another poster they shouldn’t say things with certainty because they know nothing about it.)
It’s based on your irrational loathing of Biden for daring to beat Trump. As you demonstrated in calling him ‘Slow Joe’ while criticising @TSE for calling Trump ‘odious.’
And that’s why, ultimately, your so-called analysis keeps getting called out. It’s because it’s nonsensical.
I’ve been pretty consistent re my definition of a failed state back to what I replied to @Foxy. It is all in the posts for everyone to see.
I also mentioned that years do have surges as in 2019 and 2014 but they tend to come back down. Even before Covid, the numbers into the States were lowering off in 2020. Surges happen.
The reason for blaming Biden is pretty logical - the numbers have massively surged far beyond what they were in the past and where there isn’t an obvious causal factor that wasn’t there before.
And as for blaming the Administration, don’t take my word for it, look at the increasing number of Democrat politicians who are saying the same. Everyone in the US - bar some left-wing activists and immigration groups - know the situation is out of control and that it’s happened on Biden’s watch.
Re your other stuff, as I pointed out, you have posted from time immemorial that any claims about Hunter and Joe are false and yet time and time again you have been proven to be wrong. As I said, I don’t think there is enough evidence to impeach Biden - and in reality it’s a side show - but I’ve certainly being more spot on the ball than you have.
The simple fact is all you are proving is what @CasinoRoyale said before - namely that views on what is happening in the US on this website are totally skewed. We get countless updates from you and your sidekick Robin aka @Nigelb as to ‘Trump’s in court’ or ‘so and so said that’ but it’s irrelevant.
And hence my dig at @TSE - we are seriously talking on a betting website about Trump smelling as a reason to bet against him. Seriously? WTF.
You’ve lost the plot. Stay away from the Trump stuff.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
So you are saying it is and isn't a failed state.
Are you saying Ukraine is a failed state?
Has Mexico been invaded? I missed that.
No but you just said "A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state." You made no qualification regarding invasion.
That is true. I should have said 'without outside interference.'
The thing KC was trying to wriggle on however was saying that Mexico was in control of itself and pushing migrants on to the US, and then that it wasn't.
And is still saying it and trying to misdirect his own mistake.
4. Can I press you on largest party and how many seats?
Of course. It’s a tough one, I actually think both Conservatives and Labour will be in the 280-290 range. My view is that Starmer is getting a very easy ride now but, based on how he answers difficult questions, I think in a campaign his ratings are going to be hit badly quickly. I also think Hunt as PM will also help the Tories in the Blue Wall seats.
Part 1 You, and many others, are clearly fans of Lincoln. But that’s not the point under discussion at all, the point here is everyone recognising Lincoln as the war causing disruptor he clearly was - disruptor to the ideas of Freedom others felt the formation and existence of the United States, and life in it was all about.
Freedoms and Rights at the centre of American politics back then, as the argument they make America great.
Let me prove my argument the Civil War wasn’t about slavery, but about Freedom and Rights, by using this Black Mirror. Delete and replace the constitutional freedom and right to own slaves, in a state opposed to slavery, with the freedom and right to bear arms in a state opposed to carrying guns. It doesn’t matter if it’s slavery, or gun ownership, or any point of moral or political contention - it’s where that freedom and right in America comes up against a disruptor, saying “can we, while our votes will prevent it, allow {slavery} to spread into the National Territories, and to overrun us here in these Free States? If our sense of duty forbids this, then let us stand by our duty, fearlessly and effectively. Let us be diverted by none of those sophistical contrivances wherewith we are so industriously plied and belabored - contrivances such as groping for some middle ground between the right and the wrong, vain as the search for a man who should be neither a living man nor a dead man - such as a policy of "don't care" on a question about which all true men do care - such as Union appeals beseeching true Union men to yield to Disunionists, reversing the divine rule, and calling, not the sinners, but the righteous to repentance - such as invocations to Washington, imploring men to unsay what Washington said, and undo what Washington did.” Lifted straight from Lincoln’s Cooper Union Address you sent me.
Part 2 The more you send me, the more evidence it gives me that I am right. Let’s be honest in the terms we should use about Lincoln. He’s was a progressive, bringing a sense of duty to be progressive to any situation, into debate on any issue, and this made him the disruptor. I’m not saying you shouldn’t like Abraham Lincoln. But we must accept he is pressing for progressive change that is undoing what people believe are the Freedoms and Rights in America. And so Lincoln is the cause of the civil war.
The more I read up on this, when the secessionists fired the first shot in the war, their right to keep slaves not actually under immediate threat in the slave states, by all means put me right if that’s wrong. However, by this point they have clearly been pushed by their “Nationalist” opponents “clear intentions of redefining” the Freedom and Rights in US as they understood them, into a position to cede from the Union.
Recall “freedom and rights” are the words Haley used as to what the civil war was about in her instinctive answer to the question. And recall while she was, according to me, historically word perfect in her honest answer - that was used against her politically last week. However, rather than taking that answer out of the public sphere to believe it behind closed doors - a view of American history held behind closed doors, best not mentioned in public, which I claim is where it is being hidden, the US needs a more honest debate on this. And here’s the question, can the US have that honest debate on this right now? Or is the USA a place true history of Civil War is kept behind closed doors, because that same actual war hasn’t even been resolved yet?
because, biggest Elephant in the room in the USA is how the Freedom and Rights indoctrinated into Americans, from birth even like the first thing whispered into each baby’s ear after the stork has dropped it off, completely grates against progressive and nationalist politics of Lincoln’s Copper Union address: that the National government, Congress, has both the moral duty and constitutional power to override “everything”, on issues where there cannot be groping for contrivances in the middle ground.
Forget 1860 - instead take a little trip with Lincoln’s Copper Union Address through America today, and see just how many it can wind up into insurrection, even in 2024.
I rest my case here. I’ve explained myself fully, whether you want to agree or not.
The Fire Eaters had pushed the narrative that slavery had to expand or die. They also pushed a narrative that all Republicans were John Brown supporting abolitionists.
They also believed this themselves. They convinced themselves that no matter what assurances were given to them, on slavery, that the election of Lincoln was the beginning of an assault on slavery.
To remain in the USA, when pro slavery politicians were not in control of the government was intolerable to them.
No Malmsy. It was what those progressive politicians with moral duty would do with power, that was intolerable - take away your rights, take away your freedoms, take away your states sovereignty, strip it and you of democracy.
If the USA to you was all about the freedom and right to own slaves if you wanted to, carry guns if you wanted to, and progressive nationalist politicians went about saying central government have the power and moral duty to take those rights off you, then it’s no longer your USA, the one you were born into and celebrate the 4th of July in, is it? What is the 4th of July celebration, if it not celebration of freedom and rights?
And by not letting you break away from the Nation State so you can continue in a land of the free and home of the brave, then they are the ones declaring war on you, for it is you, not they, who own the true spirit of a free America.
So that’s definitely not a conflict about slavery alone, but your own freedom no less, and how to have real and functioning and fair democracy in a union of states.
If the civil war was about slavery, nowt else, then maybe we can call it over - after all, those slaves no longer on census as numbers but names, and they can stand as politicians, and run things. So yeah, let’s call it an argument about slavery, all over and in the past now.
But if it’s an argument over God given Freedoms and Rights in America, and whether those in National government can strip you of those rights, then this is an argument far from over. And history books should reflect that.
You do seem to be overlooking that the greatest right in question is the right of slaves not to be slaves. It is a big important thing.
No, as far as Moonrabbit is concerned, it doesn’t come into the calculation. It’s the sort of wilful blindness that underpinned the lost cause narrative for nearly a century.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
So you are saying it is and isn't a failed state.
According to the Bertelsmann Transformation Index - which is probably the leading non-governmental source for what is / not a failed state - Mexico is not a failed state but does have highly defective characteristics.
But I am sure you know better…
I'm not talking about whether it is or not. I'm talking about the holes in your argument.
You have said Mexico isn't a failed state so it could stop the migrants if it wanted.
You then say Mexico has lost control of its territory (which would make it a failed state) so some of the migrants are staying there but that's still Biden's fault because reasons.
You also say migrants don't stay in Mexico except for all the ones that do.
Ultimately your argument is totally illogical. It does not stand up to a minute's scrutiny.
And you've still not explained why if Biden 'throwing open the door' is the reason for it, the current surge in migrant numbers started under Trump.
I’m using an internationally accepted definition of what is a failed state and what is not, and you seem to reject that. That’s your choice but it’s not illogical. To repeat, Mexico is not a failed state overall but it does have certain characteristics of one. And that is recognised by internationally recognised bodies.
I also didn’t say all migrants stay in Mexico. What I said was what they want is the US but they will take Mexico because - in many cases - relatively it is better than where they came from. Again it is all in the original posts for everyone to see.
As for the current surge started to Trump, as I said, Trump saw a surge in 2019 (and other years had seen a surge) but - as I pointed out and actually posted the links to the original reports - the rate has massively surged under Biden.
You can rage against the facts all you want and try and claim I said things I didn’t but, in the US, it is clear migrant numbers are surging and the Administration is seen to be at fault.
You have said these things. Whether you meant them is another question. You have repeatedly made contradictory assertions and tried to wriggle out by giving misdirected replies.
The rate has continued surging under Biden. Nobody is disputing that. Heck, I’ve even posted the figures for you several times. But it was surging under Trump as well. In fact, the current rate is a pretty natural progression from levels in summer 2020.
Yet you have laid the whole blame on Biden. I have asked - twice - how you account for the rise beginning before he took office. And you have twice refused to reply.
Your analysis is certainly not based on facts. Look at the rubbish you spout about Biden resigning upthread and your weird obsession with Hunter Biden’s laptop. Or your false claims about Trump’s gagging order. It’s amusing you told another poster they shouldn’t say things with certainty because they know nothing about it.)
It’s based on your irrational loathing of Biden for daring to beat Trump. As you demonstrated in calling him ‘Slow Joe’ while criticising @TSE for calling Trump ‘odious.’
And that’s why, ultimately, your so-called analysis keeps getting called out. It’s because it’s nonsensical.
I’ve been pretty consistent re my definition of a failed state back to what I replied to @Foxy. It is all in the posts for everyone to see.
I also mentioned that years do have surges as in 2019 and 2014 but they tend to come back down. Even before Covid, the numbers into the States were lowering off in 2020. Surges happen.
The reason for blaming Biden is pretty logical - the numbers have massively surged far beyond what they were in the past and where there isn’t an obvious causal factor that wasn’t there before.
And as for blaming the Administration, don’t take my word for it, look at the increasing number of Democrat politicians who are saying the same. Everyone in the US - bar some left-wing activists and immigration groups - know the situation is out of control and that it’s happened on Biden’s watch.
Re your other stuff, as I pointed out, you have posted from time immemorial that any claims about Hunter and Joe are false and yet time and time again you have been proven to be wrong. As I said, I don’t think there is enough evidence to impeach Biden - and in reality it’s a side show - but I’ve certainly being more spot on the ball than you have.
The simple fact is all you are proving is what @CasinoRoyale said before - namely that views on what is happening in the US on this website are totally skewed. We get countless updates from you and your sidekick Robin aka @Nigelb as to ‘Trump’s in court’ or ‘so and so said that’ but it’s irrelevant.
And hence my dig at @TSE - we are seriously talking on a betting website about Trump smelling as a reason to bet against him. Seriously? WTF.
You’ve lost the plot. Stay away from the Trump stuff.
The simple fact is you've been wrong on everything to do with Hunter Biden and Trump. And you know it. Which is why you never cite your sources.
Very simply, Hunter Biden's an idiot - indeed a criminal - with a history of firearms offences, drug problems and tax frauds who once had a laptop nicked. But somehow that means Biden's going to resign because Biden is Slow Joe.
Being accused of 'losing the plot' by you merely confirms me in my views that I'm in the right.
And you still haven't explained *why* migration was surging under Trump (and it was, as you yourself admit) if it's Biden's fault.
Again, the claim he opened the borders or said all are welcome is in origin a Tucker Carlson claim. Why do you listen to him?
And finally, we come back to you think Trump should be allowed on the ballot unless convicted of a crime (reasonable) but then think he should not be prosecuted for any crimes essentially because he's Trump (which is not reasonable).
So, again, your analysis is worthless. You accuse me of knowing nothing about US politics but everyone on this board (bearing in mind everyone here is calling you out) knows a great deal more than you.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
So you are saying it is and isn't a failed state.
Are you saying Ukraine is a failed state?
Has Mexico been invaded? I missed that.
Mexico is undergoing a massive migration of people *through* Mexico.
4. Can I press you on largest party and how many seats?
Of course. It’s a tough one, I actually think both Conservatives and Labour will be in the 280-290 range. My view is that Starmer is getting a very easy ride now but, based on how he answers difficult questions, I think in a campaign his ratings are going to be hit badly quickly. I also think Hunt as PM will also help the Tories in the Blue Wall seats.
So it's not only US politics you know nothing about...
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
I'd give Biden the edge, but only by 11/9, in terms of odds. Sean Trende, who I take very seriously, makes Trump the slight favourite.
I think that's broadly right: Biden should be narrow favourite. I think Presidential incumbents tend to get reelected, and that the US economy is doing OK. (And interest rates should start falling next year, which will benefit him slightly.) He's also (probably) facing a candidate with significant issues.
But against that, he's old and infirm and has not been seen as a particularly effective President. He won because people hate Trump, not because they are enthused by him.
My view is that, if the numbers don’t improve by spring, Biden will announce he is standing down, and possibly effective immediately. I think the following scenario is plausible in that case even if it is still a minority chance:
1. Biden steps down in the Spring - cites health as the key reason but that’s a cover.
2. Harris steps up to become President but also announces she will not stand in November - that allows Harris to be (1) President (2) the first female President and (3) to pardon Biden and his family for any potential issues without getting the electoral blowback. Harris will know that, effectively, she can’t win the nomination because her polling is so dire but this allows her to bow out but having become President (if only briefly).
3. At the Democrat convention, the 2024 candidate is chosen. I’d go Whitmer and short Newsom but I can definitely see a scenario where a deal is done that Whitmer is the Presidential pick (to solidify the Midwest vote) and Newsom as VP (so he is in top position for 2028 / 2032).
Pardon Biden for what ? Among your more ridiculous idea, that’s one if the more ridiculous.
Still sticking to your claim that this is all a big Russian disinformation campaign or have you actually read the latest updates as to what the Democrat party line is on what Hunter and Joe were doing (hint: it’s pretty far removed from what you so confidentially stated before)
As I said before, none of us has a clue about what has gone on but what has been shown is that many of the original denials about Hunter / Joe were actually false. So you may want to be less confident in thinking you know the truth.
Shame you haven't taken a new years resolution to stop fantasising about Hunter Biden.
He’s ahead in the polls, Biden is senile (and won’t be able to avoid debates this time), the Donald will delay or overcome his legal problems, and the migration issue is a crapshow for the democrats
I reckon Trump should be a slight favourite to win
The Biden senility thing is as ridiculous as Obama being aloof and arrogant. It is a meme that works when you are terminally online, have Fox News pushing a narrative, and you see things in terms of short cherry picked video clips. It's easy to select moments that make him look out of touch when he has a stutter.
During an actual campaign, this will fall apart. And perhaps people will start paying attention to Trump's rantings about windmills or false memories about running against George Bush.
He literally wanders off stage the wrong way, calls dead people to ask him questions, and praises the Black and Tans in Ireland
This is not “a stutter”
We seem to woefully underreport US politics over here, and do so through quite a liberal perspective that would never be permitted were it our domestic politics.
For example, the migration numbers coming across the southern US border are simply insane (think Channel boats x 100, but getting steadily worse not better) and Biden seems powerless to stop it at best and disinterested at worst.
Hardly mentioned here. Where everyone seems to focus on Trump and his court cases, and how terrible he is.
There’s no actual way to stop it
A significant number of people are migrating from Latin America (forget exactly where but south of the Darien Gap).
The only way to stop that is the equivalent of a Marshall Plan for that region, rebuilding civic society to make them appealing countries to live in.
No one has the appetite for that.
So how do you stop them?
The Mexico USA border is both long and also unique in being the only land border between a first and a 3rd world nation (hinges a bit on definitions).
Rather like the migrations across the Sahara and Mediterranean it really isn't possible to make it hostile enough short of murder.
The only really way to intervene is to turn failed states into viable ones, particularly those like Mexico controlling access to the border.
Mexico is not a failed state - it certainly has the attributes of one, particularly given the cartel wars, but it also still functions and, economically, is going decently.I agree more needs to be done with other LatAm states.
However, it should also be pointed out that the biggest single increase has come from non-LatAm areas who now see the Mexico border as the easiest way to gain entry. And the single biggest cause of the explosion in migrants coming to the US is the signal Biden sent out that everyone is welcome.
That is the reason Biden is getting hammered in the polls on this issue. You can look at it from a nice cosy UK angle and think “if only the US was more welcoming” but the numbers coming in are truly epoch making.
It is also worthwhile pointing out that many of those who most strongly support immigration I.e. wealthy urban types are also those who benefit most from having an increasing supply of cheap labour that often doesn’t speak English (so doesn’t understand their rights)….
Mexico is not quite a failed state, but approaches that in certain states. Every border has two sides and controlling crossings requires both sides to enforce a common set of rules. Mexico could stop the migrant caravans if it wanted, but clearly does not.
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
For Mexico, there is no incentive - and much disincentive - to curtail the migration namely the migrants may decide to stay in Mexico given the latter is relatively wealthier than the places from which many migrants have come.
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’ when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
Blinken was in Mexico last week to work out the issue (check how much Mexico needs to send the migrants South). The CNN report suggested 9/10 migrants stay in Mexico, so the border crossers are just the tip of an enormous iceberg. An iceberg Mexico would be happy to assist a return from whence it came.
Problem is that Mexico has lost control of a number of its states and those immigrants are good for the cartels generally (money, cheap labour etc) so Mexico trying to enforce people going back to where they came isn’t going to work. It’s far easier to let them continue to the US.
I thought you said Mexico wasn't a failed state?
Read my original post again. I said that Mexico has attributes of a failed state, namely around the cartels, but overall it probably isn’t. Having lost control of a number of states doesn’t negate that.
A state that has lost control of part of its territory is by definition a failed state.
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
So you are saying it is and isn't a failed state.
According to the Bertelsmann Transformation Index - which is probably the leading non-governmental source for what is / not a failed state - Mexico is not a failed state but does have highly defective characteristics.
But I am sure you know better…
I'm not talking about whether it is or not. I'm talking about the holes in your argument.
You have said Mexico isn't a failed state so it could stop the migrants if it wanted.
You then say Mexico has lost control of its territory (which would make it a failed state) so some of the migrants are staying there but that's still Biden's fault because reasons.
You also say migrants don't stay in Mexico except for all the ones that do.
Ultimately your argument is totally illogical. It does not stand up to a minute's scrutiny.
And you've still not explained why if Biden 'throwing open the door' is the reason for it, the current surge in migrant numbers started under Trump.
I’m using an internationally accepted definition of what is a failed state and what is not, and you seem to reject that. That’s your choice but it’s not illogical. To repeat, Mexico is not a failed state overall but it does have certain characteristics of one. And that is recognised by internationally recognised bodies.
I also didn’t say all migrants stay in Mexico. What I said was what they want is the US but they will take Mexico because - in many cases - relatively it is better than where they came from. Again it is all in the original posts for everyone to see.
As for the current surge started to Trump, as I said, Trump saw a surge in 2019 (and other years had seen a surge) but - as I pointed out and actually posted the links to the original reports - the rate has massively surged under Biden.
You can rage against the facts all you want and try and claim I said things I didn’t but, in the US, it is clear migrant numbers are surging and the Administration is seen to be at fault.
You have said these things. Whether you meant them is another question. You have repeatedly made contradictory assertions and tried to wriggle out by giving misdirected replies.
The rate has continued surging under Biden. Nobody is disputing that. Heck, I’ve even posted the figures for you several times. But it was surging under Trump as well. In fact, the current rate is a pretty natural progression from levels in summer 2020.
Yet you have laid the whole blame on Biden. I have asked - twice - how you account for the rise beginning before he took office. And you have twice refused to reply.
Your analysis is certainly not based on facts. Look at the rubbish you spout about Biden resigning upthread and your weird obsession with Hunter Biden’s laptop. Or your false claims about Trump’s gagging order. It’s amusing you told another poster they shouldn’t say things with certainty because they know nothing about it.)
It’s based on your irrational loathing of Biden for daring to beat Trump. As you demonstrated in calling him ‘Slow Joe’ while criticising @TSE for calling Trump ‘odious.’
And that’s why, ultimately, your so-called analysis keeps getting called out. It’s because it’s nonsensical.
I’ve been pretty consistent re my definition of a failed state back to what I replied to @Foxy. It is all in the posts for everyone to see.
I also mentioned that years do have surges as in 2019 and 2014 but they tend to come back down. Even before Covid, the numbers into the States were lowering off in 2020. Surges happen.
The reason for blaming Biden is pretty logical - the numbers have massively surged far beyond what they were in the past and where there isn’t an obvious causal factor that wasn’t there before.
And as for blaming the Administration, don’t take my word for it, look at the increasing number of Democrat politicians who are saying the same. Everyone in the US - bar some left-wing activists and immigration groups - know the situation is out of control and that it’s happened on Biden’s watch.
Re your other stuff, as I pointed out, you have posted from time immemorial that any claims about Hunter and Joe are false and yet time and time again you have been proven to be wrong. As I said, I don’t think there is enough evidence to impeach Biden - and in reality it’s a side show - but I’ve certainly being more spot on the ball than you have.
The simple fact is all you are proving is what @CasinoRoyale said before - namely that views on what is happening in the US on this website are totally skewed. We get countless updates from you and your sidekick Robin aka @Nigelb as to ‘Trump’s in court’ or ‘so and so said that’ but it’s irrelevant.
And hence my dig at @TSE - we are seriously talking on a betting website about Trump smelling as a reason to bet against him. Seriously? WTF.
You’ve lost the plot. Stay away from the Trump stuff.
The site seems pretty evenly split between those who expect a Trump victory and those who think Biden gets it. (For what it's worth, I think more than a few people on here would welcome a Hayley Presidency.)
So, while I think most people on here dread a Trump Presidency because of his complete disregard for democratic norms (like, you know, allowing the person who won the election to become President) I don't think they are in some kind of fugue state where they don't see his appeal.
However, you do appear to have lost the plot regarding Joe Biden regarding Hunter. What crime has Joe Biden committed that requires pardoning?
Comments
The issue with using force is sheer numbers. I randomly chose Texas: there are 1,400 border patrol agents and 10,000 migrants a day. That quickly becomes impossible to detain and remove or repel them.
You are dependent on most of them remaining law abiding and peaceful
The biggest mistake the Tories made was to ditch Johnson. Whilst they were right to do it, politically it was a disastrous move.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tdiKTSdE9Y
7.6 million views
Now, as I said below, I agree that this has been Biden's biggest policy failure.
For what it's worth, though, I think solving it requires a multipronged approach.
1. You need to follow the example of Switzerland and Norway in reducing demand for undocumented labour. Both Trump and Biden failed to fund eVerify, and it's a major issue. Firms can't easily check the immigration status of people carrying puportedly genuine SSNs.
2. You need to incentivize the Mexican government to clamp down on people crossing the country.
3. You need free trade to make sure that the Central American countries are wealthier, so that there is less demand push.
4. You need to better monitor and patrol (and yes, maybe including a wall) border areas where crossings are likely. And you need to find a way to rapidly return people, not to Mexico, but to the country of origin when they are apprehended.
Trump pushed hard on 4, but failed on the other 3. And I think you need to do all of them. Because if there is demand for illegal labour, then there will be supply. People will just find other ways to cross the border.
1. Biden steps down in the Spring - cites health as the key reason but that’s a cover.
2. Harris steps up to become President but also announces she will not stand in November - that allows Harris to be (1) President (2) the first female President and (3) to pardon Biden and his family for any potential issues without getting the electoral blowback. Harris will know that, effectively, she can’t win the nomination because her polling is so dire but this allows her to bow out but having become President (if only briefly).
3. At the Democrat convention, the 2024 candidate is chosen. I’d go Whitmer and short Newsom but I can definitely see a scenario where a deal is done that Whitmer is the Presidential pick (to solidify the Midwest vote) and Newsom as VP (so he is in top position for 2028 / 2032).
France and Albania arent failed states either, but it was cooperation with these (and some money) that cut the number of irregular arrivals.
2. 24.10.24
3. Same as now apart from SKS is replaced by Austerity Reeves after a tragic event
4. NOM Lab biggest Party with 299 seats 26 short of a Majority
5. Haley/ Genocide Joe .
6. Haley
7. 3.25
8. 3.0%).
9. 105BN
10. 73
Plus, you have some of the world's busiest road and rail crossings.
I agree with 4 though, I think Labour will finish just short. Certainly if they don't I'm expecting Wilson 64 rather than Wilson 66.
The hurdles to a Labour majority are formidable even if Sunak is dismantling them as fast as he can.
I have no doubt that a President willing to open the cheque book could cut a deal with Mexico, which would have a very positive impact on the numbers arriving at the border. But Biden has shown little interest, while Trump seems obsessed with the wall, and has tended to prefer to stamp his feet.
It’s the sort of wilful blindness that underpinned the lost cause narrative for nearly a century.
You might need to use toe pistons but usually they only register certain numbers of them.
2. 24 Oct 24
3. Sunak, Keir, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4. Labour - 25
5. Trump and Biden
6. Trump
7. 4.5%
8. 3.5%
9. 140bn
10. 45
There is also the issue that the US and Mexico have deep rooted historical beefs so there is a naturally tendency within Mexico to do things that discomfort the US - and the migrant issue is definitely one of those.
But one of the big underlying issues this leads back to - which doesn’t get much attention here aka @CasinoRoyale - is that there is a major split developing within the Democrats between the progressives and the centrists. That’s been caused by Gaza but, if Biden cracks down on immigration, he risks opening a ‘second front’
when it comes to the left of his party, and he can’t afford to do that.
You would have thought that she would find getting a visa straightforward, but the US embassy in London didn't have any visa slots for months after she was due to start (this was 2021, so may have been some covid effect). She asked the US University for advice. They put her in touch with an immigration lawyer in Monterey in Mexico. She stayed in a cheap migrant hotel there for two weeks, eating curry with all the others doing the same. The hostel specialised in subcontinental migrants.
2 weeks later she had her legal visa and took up her post. Both she and I were puzzled and bemused by the process, but that was how to do it.
https://x.com/tchockie/status/1741608416747938194?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
If all republicans cooperated and excluded Trump/ selected another candidate they would likely win the White House
But there enough Trump fanatics among the base that any individual politician who opposes Trump runs the risk of the end of their career.
The fundamental problem is that they have no way to exclude those Trumpists from the party/primaries
The reality is that they need the Trump fire to burn itself out. I don’t see anyone able to sustain it assuming he loses in 2024. (Whether he is the GOP nominee or not - I don’t think he runs as an independent because that costs too much, but he sets himself up as the “voice of the people” that keeps the media spotlight on him and maximises the opportunity to grift at minimum cost).
So think of this as the GOP’s 1983. It’s a long road back but they will get there.
Soooooooooo 2023!
Let us wait for the future to unfold itself, no doubt in ways that will baffled the benighted!
For 3, autocorrect changed Yousef to Houseful. I expect Yousef to still be in post rather than the unknown Houseful.
😀
Camino desde Santiago
Y bebo como un cosaco
https://www.wola.org/analysis/us-government-2018-border-data-trump-immigration-asylum-
policy/
The simple fact is that Biden has encouraged far more people to come in. This again from an organisation that is making an anti-Trump point but where the absolute numbers show just how much the surge has been since Biden took over - the number of encounters (ie law enforcement encountering immigrants) for a comparable period of Trump v Biden (and taking into account the surge of 2019 for Trump) shows it was 3.5x higher under Biden v Trump
https://www.cato.org/blog/new-data-show-migrants-were-more-likely-be-released-trump-biden
Re the solutions, I think they are broadly right but they are more long term solutions - Biden faces an election within 12 months and he is losing control of the issue (if he had it originally)
But he isn't.
If he wanted to be Machiavellian I suppose he could pardon Trump for his role the DC riots - which would then mean he'd admitted insurrection and would be ineligible under the 14th. But I don't think he's quite that sort of politician. (Besides, it didn't work quite as intended for Gerald Ford.)
But let’s be honest. We’ve heard the likes of “the laptop is Russian disinformation”, “Joe didn’t discuss anything with Hunter “ etc etc and then found out that actually they did happen / were true. So, if I was you, I probably wouldn’t be making out such statements as hard facts when you actually haven’t a clue what has actually gone on.
2 2 May
3 Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf, Tice
4 Labour, +80
5 Trump Biden
6 Biden
7 4.75%
8 3.0%
9 130bn
10 44
failed state: a state that is unable to perform the two fundamental functions of the sovereign nation-state in the modern world system: it cannot project authority over its territory and peoples, and it cannot protect its national boundaries. (Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
So you are saying it is and isn't a failed state.
Mexico is a serious law and order problem. Other aspects of the state work in those provinces
Apparently it's not just Latinos but people from the Caribbean and elsewhere who are making the journey.
But I am sure you know better…
I’m sure Mexico could probably take some measures to stem the traffic but they also have to take into account that people trafficking is lucrative for the cartels - so taking US money for that risks the cartels taking action against the Mexican state.
WHAT good can possibly result, from encouraging HM's jolly tars to pass out?
Far better, methinks, to give 'em a parade IF they can stay conscious!
You have said Mexico isn't a failed state so it could stop the migrants if it wanted.
You then say Mexico has lost control of its territory (which would make it a failed state) so some of the migrants are staying there but that's still Biden's fault because reasons.
You also say migrants don't stay in Mexico except for all the ones that do.
Ultimately your argument is totally illogical. It does not stand up to a minute's scrutiny.
And you've still not explained why if Biden 'throwing open the door' is the reason for it, the current surge in migrant numbers started under Trump.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6358878/?ref_=nm_flmg_t_11_slf
Among your more ridiculous idea, that’s one if the more ridiculous.
I also didn’t say all migrants stay in Mexico. What I said was what they want is the US but they will take Mexico because - in many cases - relatively it is better than where they came from. Again it is all in the original posts for everyone to see.
As for the current surge started to Trump, as I said, Trump saw a surge in 2019 (and other years had seen a surge) but - as I pointed out and actually posted the links to the original reports - the rate has massively surged under Biden.
You can rage against the facts all you want and try and claim I said things I didn’t but, in the US, it is clear migrant numbers are surging and the Administration is seen to be at fault.
As I said before, none of us has a clue about what has gone on but what has been shown is that many of the original denials about Hunter / Joe were actually false. So you may want to be less confident in thinking you know the truth.
I will trawl the threads to pick up any late entries before the end of Saturday 6th January 2024.
The rate has continued surging under Biden. Nobody is disputing that. Heck, I’ve even posted the figures for you several times. But it was surging under Trump as well. In fact, the current rate is a pretty natural progression from levels in summer 2020.
Yet you have laid the whole blame on Biden. I have asked - twice - how you account for the rise beginning before he took office. And you have twice refused to reply.
Your analysis is certainly not based on facts. Look at the rubbish you spout about Biden resigning upthread and your weird obsession with Hunter Biden’s laptop. Or your false claims about Trump’s gagging order. (It’s amusing you told another poster they shouldn’t say things with certainty because they know nothing about it - incidentally I think you meant ‘confidently’ not ‘confidentially.’)
It’s based on your irrational loathing of Biden for daring to beat Trump. As you demonstrated in calling him ‘Slow Joe’ while criticising @TSE for calling Trump ‘odious.’
And that’s why, ultimately, your so-called analysis keeps getting called out. It’s because it’s nonsensical.
Edit: sorry, not clear. The US matelots would aoso be necking half a pint of rum or bourbon a day at the time of the battle. Cancels out ...
https://www.history.navy.mil/research/library/online-reading-room/title-list-alphabetically/a/alcohol-in-the-navy.html
You regularly post complete nonsense. You have predicted scandal after scandal will topple Biden, and none of those predictions came true. This is a thread about predictions. Let’s judge you by how few of your past predictions came true.
Or we can wait 6 months to see your Harris predictions here fail.
Have you been drinking?
Like claiming Biden is about to resign because he's somehow guilty of his son's tax frauds.
They then have risen sharply since. They rose by 50% in 2018. They rose by the same in 2019. Covid hit in 2020. And then they continued to rising.
Now, sure, I completely agree that Biden has been a failure. But crossing doubled under Trump too! And he didn't exactly say "borders open folks!"
2 9/1/2025
3 Sunak, Starmer, Davey, Yousaf/Flynn, Tice
4 Con +20
5 Trump v Biden
6 Trump
7 4.75%
8 2.1%
9 150bn
10 20
I also mentioned that years do have surges as in 2019 and 2014 but they tend to come back down. Even before Covid, the numbers into the States were lowering off in 2020. Surges happen.
The reason for blaming Biden is pretty logical - the numbers have massively surged far beyond what they were in the past and where there isn’t an obvious causal factor that wasn’t there before.
And as for blaming the Administration, don’t take my word for it, look at the increasing number of Democrat politicians who are saying the same. Everyone in the US - bar some left-wing activists and immigration groups - know the situation is out of control and that it’s happened on Biden’s watch.
Re your other stuff, as I pointed out, you have posted from time immemorial that any claims about Hunter and Joe are false and yet time and time again you have been proven to be wrong. As I said, I don’t think there is enough evidence to impeach Biden - and in reality it’s a side show - but I’ve certainly being more spot on the ball than you have.
The simple fact is all you are proving is what @CasinoRoyale said before - namely that views on what is happening in the US on this website are totally skewed. We get countless updates from you and your sidekick Robin aka @Nigelb as to ‘Trump’s in court’ or ‘so and so said that’ but it’s irrelevant.
And hence my dig at @TSE - we are seriously talking on a betting website about Trump smelling as a reason to bet against him. Seriously? WTF.
You’ve lost the plot. Stay away from the Trump stuff.
The thing KC was trying to wriggle on however was saying that Mexico was in control of itself and pushing migrants on to the US, and then that it wasn't.
And is still saying it and trying to misdirect his own mistake.
I am having second thoughts, perhaps not Sunak as Con leader, but I'll let that stand. (Just for fun, if not, Mordaunt and a bigger Con majority).
range. My view is that Starmer is getting a very easy ride now but, based on how he answers difficult questions, I think in a campaign his ratings are going to be hit badly quickly. I also think Hunt as PM will also help the Tories in the Blue Wall seats.
Very simply, Hunter Biden's an idiot - indeed a criminal - with a history of firearms offences, drug problems and tax frauds who once had a laptop nicked. But somehow that means Biden's going to resign because Biden is Slow Joe.
Being accused of 'losing the plot' by you merely confirms me in my views that I'm in the right.
And you still haven't explained *why* migration was surging under Trump (and it was, as you yourself admit) if it's Biden's fault.
Again, the claim he opened the borders or said all are welcome is in origin a Tucker Carlson claim. Why do you listen to him?
And finally, we come back to you think Trump should be allowed on the ballot unless convicted of a crime (reasonable) but then think he should not be prosecuted for any crimes essentially because he's Trump (which is not reasonable).
So, again, your analysis is worthless. You accuse me of knowing nothing about US politics but everyone on this board (bearing in mind everyone here is calling you out) knows a great deal more than you.
So, while I think most people on here dread a Trump Presidency because of his complete disregard for democratic norms (like, you know, allowing the person who won the election to become President) I don't think they are in some kind of fugue state where they don't see his appeal.
However, you do appear to have lost the plot regarding Joe Biden regarding Hunter. What crime has Joe Biden committed that requires pardoning?