Could it be that Biden is planning to stand down at a late stage? For a number of reasons he is postponing it: 1. He wants to keep his options open though he knows in his heart he's not up to it. 2. He doesn't want to be a lame duck any more than he is. 3 (and this is the key one). He knows Kamala is not up to it either and that Trump would likely beat her. He has a good working relationship with her and wants to postpone the pain of telling her he will not endorse her as his successor as long as possible.
The other issue is the - sadly effective - way Trump is able to humiliate and intimidate opponents by browbeating them in debates and by seizing on a real or imagined character trait and coining a pithy name for it. Pocahontas (which was genius), crooked Hilary, Little Marco and so on. The one person so far it didn’t work on was Joe Biden.
Of the possible successors Mayor Pete would I think have the best chance of neutralising this. He’s a very good debater, quick on his feet and seems unflappable.
Trump did use the 'Sleepy Joe' line. Do these derogatory nicknames Trump comes up with have any effect? Could it be that Hilary Clinton was just not that good a candidate?
PB should be able to come up with a good name for Trump. 'Convict Trump' maybe? 'Donald Perp'? You guys will do much better than those.
If his opponent was Mayor Pete, he’d call him Buttplug.
Yeah, good one, but that's not helping us keep Trump out and save Western Democracy.
He’s generally avoided crude monikers too so I don’t think he’d do that. It also doesn’t actually plant seeds of doubt about character or policies. But the key anyway is the reaction. Buttigieg would shrug it off, as did Biden with sleepy Joe.
Mayor Pete is quite good - diminishes him
Or McKinsey Pete possibly with lots of Facebook messaging about how McKinsey always sacks people
"Actually, Red Wall voters are far more interested in the location of ancient Greek carvings than they are in whether they can see a doctor before Christmas."
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
Were they utter bollocks? Other than maybe some of the ones showing May with early Blair popularity. Labour got resoundingly hammered in the locals in 2017 in a way that looked to point to a landslide defeat. But the polls then narrowed (and some pollsters almost didn't believe what they were being told), because there was a lot in flux as old loyalties died and new ones formed.
Labour's leader was very unpopular with even many of its own voters in April 2017 but was still quite fresh and new - and so lots hadn't fully made their minds up. His approval ratings going to merely 'quite bad' from 'disastrous' brought some Lab voters home. As did the Brexit divides. Add in the atrocious Tory campaign and residual Labour loyalty and you got that result when a couple of months earlier Lab really were in dire straits.
There were arguably similar effects in both 2017 and 19 - the Labour vote share went up from around the low to mid 20s to the low 30s. Just it was far less pronounced in 2019 as Boris was a stronger campaigner with a more solid message on Brexit (for all his many other appalling flaws). While the liberal left/Remain side of things was much more divided about both Corbyn and what to do about Brexit. In a way that meant only some of those voters 'came home' to counteract the Tories uniting both Brexit voters and their own Remainers for whom a Corbyn government was scarier than Brexit.
Well the polling companies themselves and parliament did reviews into how bad the polling was for 2017 due to it seen as being a massive failure.
Yes, on the late polls - IIRC the reviews of those who got it badly wrong made elaborate adjustments to model things like turnout etc and some simply didn't believe the data coming in later polls could be right - and they'd missed the Tory majority in 2015 when several late polls seemed to favour Labour/a hung parliament. If they'd have just stuck with traditional methods - as some did - they'd have picked up the shift.
But the point is, we know Labour was way behind in early May as we had an actual election they got trounced in. So sentiment swung towards the opposition from that point - rather than polls showing big Tory leads being wrong all along. Lots of people really did make up their minds pretty late - for the reasons I gave about loyalties being a bit in flux. Many pollsters then struggled with that as it confounded received wisdom about what should be happening.
A nice write up of the march by Jewish Chronicle editor Jake Wallis Simons:
A few reflections on the march against antisemitism today, the biggest since the Battle of Cable Street. There was not a single masked face; not a single act of intimidation or vandalism; not a single call for death or genocide; not a single desecration of our monuments or statutes; and not a single bad-tempered interaction with the police. (I did however see a placard about chicken soup, one about Jewish mothers not being monsters, one asking people to become anti-Marmite rather than antisemite, and one declaring a desire for a Jewish husband, including a phone number.) It was all very good-humoured and moving. The police were there to protect those attending, not to defend societyagainst them. Officers were all smiles and everything was smooth and easy. The @metpoliceuk was thanked at the end, as was the glorious @CST_UK. I especially valued seeing the proud Iranians there, flying their flags and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel and Jews against fanatical jihadism and the theocratic regime in Tehran. Old Tommy Robinson was carted off shortly after he arrived, and good riddance. As the march got going, the atmosphere was at times quite quiet. We ordinary folk are not activists. We are not used to this sort of thing, did not have ready-made chants and felt a little embarrassed by raising our voices. When we did, however, we called for the release of the hostages, the prosecution of those guilty of hate crimes and peace. @Roxanna04749331 and I overcame our Englishness to lead several rounds of “bring them home.” We were slightly over-caffeinated. We sang traditional Jewish songs asserting the right of the people of Israel simply to live and calling for peace. One poignant sign read “I’m allowed to be proud of being Jewish,” as if the bearer was almost trying to convince himself. In Parliament Square, the statue of Winston Churchill stooped above us like an ally. There were many chants and songs for peace, repeated frequently and with much feeling. In the @chiefrabbi’s wonderful and moving speech, which stood out magnificently from the rest, he made it utterly clear that every innocent Palestinian death — fetishised by Hamas — is a tragedy. He made it clear that this was a war that Israel did not ask for or want, and we raised a universal prayer for peace. We did feel the absence of political support. It was wonderful to see @TomTugendhat@RobertJenrick@peterkyle and others, but there should have been so many more politicians standing up for Jews, including party leaders and front benchers. It was also baffling to see that while the @JLC_UK came out to bat, the @BoardofDeputies failed dismally to wholeheartedly support the rally. This shouldn’t have been controversial. It was a matter of fundamental British and Jewish values.
But let’s not focus on the negatives. I can say with all confidence that not one of the 105,000 people there wished anything but peace and prosperity to Palestinians and Muslims. There were no hate chants, no calls for violence and absolutely no racism. If there were any extremists there, I didn’t see them and they were utterly insignificant in number. On the streets today were people from all backgrounds, religions and walks of life. There were many bobble hats. (Many excellent @JewishChron people.) This was unmistakably the silent majority finally discovering its voice. There was much camaraderie and good humour. One lady gave my step-daughter a yellow ribbon to demand the release of the hostages, and tied it into her hair. Many people recognised me and expressed their love and support. It was a unification of Jews and non-Jews alike, marching in favour of tolerance, freedom, liberalism and justice. And standing against jihadism. Great Britain: 105,000 of you turned up in the cold and wet today and did us bloody proud. We can all hold our heads a little higher tonight. Thank you @antisemitism led by the heroic @gideonfalter for organising such a powerful and historic moment.
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Sometimes cancelling a meeting is the right thing to do.
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Sometimes cancelling a meeting is the right thing to do.
As Greek pm Kyriakos Mitsotakis pointed out on Kuenssberg, they are the Parthenon marbles. Only we know them as the Elgin marbles. The best argument for Lord Elgin's looting was that they needed to be preserved for posterity, which the British Museum has done. But now Greece is no longer the pauper state it was they should be returned to be displayed magnificently in their proper setting
I imagine the whole Sue Gray saga probably not helped with the initiating talks between civil service and Labour.
It's a bit of a Trump-like tantrum to refuse a smoth transition. If it is custom and practice before an election to give some Civil Service advice to oppositions, then that should continue. It is part of democracy.
But Case wanted to bring the date forward to suit himself
"Actually, Red Wall voters are far more interested in the location of ancient Greek carvings than they are in whether they can see a doctor before Christmas."
Unless I'm fundamentally misunderatanding the issue, it's not really an either/or, is it?
There is very little in life more embarrassing than the fake, performative fury of a weak man. Did not one of Sunak’s advisers realise just how ridiculous he’d look pretending to be angry about the Greek PM wanting the Elgin Marbles back? If I were a Tory I’d be in despair!!
There is very little in life more embarrassing than the fake, performative fury of a weak man. Did not one of Sunak’s advisers realise just how ridiculous he’d look pretending to be angry about the Greek PM wanting the Elgin Marbles back? If I were a Tory I’d be in despair!!
Well you are not....so go think about something else. Sunak is doing well in v difficult circumstances.
In other news sometimes life cheers one up ..or not as the case may be... Fulham 3 Wolves 2..3 penalties all by VAR...
There is very little in life more embarrassing than the fake, performative fury of a weak man. Did not one of Sunak’s advisers realise just how ridiculous he’d look pretending to be angry about the Greek PM wanting the Elgin Marbles back? If I were a Tory I’d be in despair!!
Reminds me of Cameron feeling "physically sick" at the thought of votes for prisoners.
There is very little in life more embarrassing than the fake, performative fury of a weak man. Did not one of Sunak’s advisers realise just how ridiculous he’d look pretending to be angry about the Greek PM wanting the Elgin Marbles back? If I were a Tory I’d be in despair!!
Sunak is being very badly advised generally it seems to me.
An explanation, possibly, based on something in I think the Telegraph about focus groups recently, is that the swing vote focus groups are full of people bleating on about this kind of culture war crap rather than actual pocket book stuff that will determine the election. Tory strategist listening to focus group and not polling.
A nice write up of the march by Jewish Chronicle editor Jake Wallis Simons:
A few reflections on the march against antisemitism today, the biggest since the Battle of Cable Street. There was not a single masked face; not a single act of intimidation or vandalism; not a single call for death or genocide; not a single desecration of our monuments or statutes; and not a single bad-tempered interaction with the police. (I did however see a placard about chicken soup, one about Jewish mothers not being monsters, one asking people to become anti-Marmite rather than antisemite, and one declaring a desire for a Jewish husband, including a phone number.) It was all very good-humoured and moving. The police were there to protect those attending, not to defend societyagainst them. Officers were all smiles and everything was smooth and easy. The @metpoliceuk was thanked at the end, as was the glorious @CST_UK. I especially valued seeing the proud Iranians there, flying their flags and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel and Jews against fanatical jihadism and the theocratic regime in Tehran. Old Tommy Robinson was carted off shortly after he arrived, and good riddance. As the march got going, the atmosphere was at times quite quiet. We ordinary folk are not activists. We are not used to this sort of thing, did not have ready-made chants and felt a little embarrassed by raising our voices. When we did, however, we called for the release of the hostages, the prosecution of those guilty of hate crimes and peace. @Roxanna04749331 and I overcame our Englishness to lead several rounds of “bring them home.” We were slightly over-caffeinated. We sang traditional Jewish songs asserting the right of the people of Israel simply to live and calling for peace. One poignant sign read “I’m allowed to be proud of being Jewish,” as if the bearer was almost trying to convince himself. In Parliament Square, the statue of Winston Churchill stooped above us like an ally. There were many chants and songs for peace, repeated frequently and with much feeling. In the @chiefrabbi’s wonderful and moving speech, which stood out magnificently from the rest, he made it utterly clear that every innocent Palestinian death — fetishised by Hamas — is a tragedy. He made it clear that this was a war that Israel did not ask for or want, and we raised a universal prayer for peace. We did feel the absence of political support. It was wonderful to see @TomTugendhat@RobertJenrick@peterkyle and others, but there should have been so many more politicians standing up for Jews, including party leaders and front benchers. It was also baffling to see that while the @JLC_UK came out to bat, the @BoardofDeputies failed dismally to wholeheartedly support the rally. This shouldn’t have been controversial. It was a matter of fundamental British and Jewish values.
Hate march in favour of genocide and killing babies
There is very little in life more embarrassing than the fake, performative fury of a weak man. Did not one of Sunak’s advisers realise just how ridiculous he’d look pretending to be angry about the Greek PM wanting the Elgin Marbles back? If I were a Tory I’d be in despair!!
Sunak is being very badly advised generally it seems to me.
An explanation, possibly, based on something in I think the Telegraph about focus groups recently, is that the swing vote focus groups are full of people bleating on about this kind of culture war crap rather than actual pocket book stuff that will determine the election. Tory strategist listening to focus group and not polling.
But let’s not focus on the negatives. I can say with all confidence that not one of the 105,000 people there wished anything but peace and prosperity to Palestinians and Muslims. There were no hate chants, no calls for violence and absolutely no racism. If there were any extremists there, I didn’t see them and they were utterly insignificant in number. On the streets today were people from all backgrounds, religions and walks of life. There were many bobble hats. (Many excellent @JewishChron people.) This was unmistakably the silent majority finally discovering its voice. There was much camaraderie and good humour. One lady gave my step-daughter a yellow ribbon to demand the release of the hostages, and tied it into her hair. Many people recognised me and expressed their love and support. It was a unification of Jews and non-Jews alike, marching in favour of tolerance, freedom, liberalism and justice. And standing against jihadism. Great Britain: 105,000 of you turned up in the cold and wet today and did us bloody proud. We can all hold our heads a little higher tonight. Thank you @antisemitism led by the heroic @gideonfalter for organising such a powerful and historic moment.
But let’s not focus on the negatives. I can say with all confidence that not one of the 105,000 people there wished anything but peace and prosperity to Palestinians and Muslims. There were no hate chants, no calls for violence and absolutely no racism. If there were any extremists there, I didn’t see them and they were utterly insignificant in number. On the streets today were people from all backgrounds, religions and walks of life. There were many bobble hats. (Many excellent @JewishChron people.) This was unmistakably the silent majority finally discovering its voice. There was much camaraderie and good humour. One lady gave my step-daughter a yellow ribbon to demand the release of the hostages, and tied it into her hair. Many people recognised me and expressed their love and support. It was a unification of Jews and non-Jews alike, marching in favour of tolerance, freedom, liberalism and justice. And standing against jihadism. Great Britain: 105,000 of you turned up in the cold and wet today and did us bloody proud. We can all hold our heads a little higher tonight. Thank you @antisemitism led by the heroic @gideonfalter for organising such a powerful and historic moment.
There is very little in life more embarrassing than the fake, performative fury of a weak man. Did not one of Sunak’s advisers realise just how ridiculous he’d look pretending to be angry about the Greek PM wanting the Elgin Marbles back? If I were a Tory I’d be in despair!!
Sunak is being very badly advised generally it seems to me.
An explanation, possibly, based on something in I think the Telegraph about focus groups recently, is that the swing vote focus groups are full of people bleating on about this kind of culture war crap rather than actual pocket book stuff that will determine the election. Tory strategist listening to focus group and not polling.
The other problem the Conservatives have.
If you are bright, young, ambitious and into politics, why the hell would you go and work for the Conservatives right now? It's a job, sure, but also a one way ticket to Loserville. As conference season showed, the fun is elsewhere.
So I rather suspect that the backroom team is made up of the second raters, the really ideological, and the chancers.
But let’s not focus on the negatives. I can say with all confidence that not one of the 105,000 people there wished anything but peace and prosperity to Palestinians and Muslims. There were no hate chants, no calls for violence and absolutely no racism. If there were any extremists there, I didn’t see them and they were utterly insignificant in number. On the streets today were people from all backgrounds, religions and walks of life. There were many bobble hats. (Many excellent @JewishChron people.) This was unmistakably the silent majority finally discovering its voice. There was much camaraderie and good humour. One lady gave my step-daughter a yellow ribbon to demand the release of the hostages, and tied it into her hair. Many people recognised me and expressed their love and support. It was a unification of Jews and non-Jews alike, marching in favour of tolerance, freedom, liberalism and justice. And standing against jihadism. Great Britain: 105,000 of you turned up in the cold and wet today and did us bloody proud. We can all hold our heads a little higher tonight. Thank you @antisemitism led by the heroic @gideonfalter for organising such a powerful and historic moment.
Police estimate circa 5,000
I think you mean they estimated 50,000.
Police estimated 45,000 people marched in the demonstration on Saturday while it said 50,000 took part in Sunday's protest.
A nice write up of the march by Jewish Chronicle editor Jake Wallis Simons:
A few reflections on the march against antisemitism today, the biggest since the Battle of Cable Street. There was not a single masked face; not a single act of intimidation or vandalism; not a single call for death or genocide; not a single desecration of our monuments or statutes; and not a single bad-tempered interaction with the police. (I did however see a placard about chicken soup, one about Jewish mothers not being monsters, one asking people to become anti-Marmite rather than antisemite, and one declaring a desire for a Jewish husband, including a phone number.) It was all very good-humoured and moving. The police were there to protect those attending, not to defend societyagainst them. Officers were all smiles and everything was smooth and easy. The @metpoliceuk was thanked at the end, as was the glorious @CST_UK. I especially valued seeing the proud Iranians there, flying their flags and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel and Jews against fanatical jihadism and the theocratic regime in Tehran. Old Tommy Robinson was carted off shortly after he arrived, and good riddance. As the march got going, the atmosphere was at times quite quiet. We ordinary folk are not activists. We are not used to this sort of thing, did not have ready-made chants and felt a little embarrassed by raising our voices. When we did, however, we called for the release of the hostages, the prosecution of those guilty of hate crimes and peace. @Roxanna04749331 and I overcame our Englishness to lead several rounds of “bring them home.” We were slightly over-caffeinated. We sang traditional Jewish songs asserting the right of the people of Israel simply to live and calling for peace. One poignant sign read “I’m allowed to be proud of being Jewish,” as if the bearer was almost trying to convince himself. In Parliament Square, the statue of Winston Churchill stooped above us like an ally. There were many chants and songs for peace, repeated frequently and with much feeling. In the @chiefrabbi’s wonderful and moving speech, which stood out magnificently from the rest, he made it utterly clear that every innocent Palestinian death — fetishised by Hamas — is a tragedy. He made it clear that this was a war that Israel did not ask for or want, and we raised a universal prayer for peace. We did feel the absence of political support. It was wonderful to see @TomTugendhat@RobertJenrick@peterkyle and others, but there should have been so many more politicians standing up for Jews, including party leaders and front benchers. It was also baffling to see that while the @JLC_UK came out to bat, the @BoardofDeputies failed dismally to wholeheartedly support the rally. This shouldn’t have been controversial. It was a matter of fundamental British and Jewish values.
Hate march in favour of genocide and killing babies
As Greek pm Kyriakos Mitsotakis pointed out on Kuenssberg, they are the Parthenon marbles. Only we know them as the Elgin marbles. The best argument for Lord Elgin's looting was that they needed to be preserved for posterity, which the British Museum has done. But now Greece is no longer the pauper state it was they should be returned to be displayed magnificently in their proper setting
Is the plan to stick them back on to the Parthenon? I think they'll be put in a museum the same as they are now.
There is very little in life more embarrassing than the fake, performative fury of a weak man. Did not one of Sunak’s advisers realise just how ridiculous he’d look pretending to be angry about the Greek PM wanting the Elgin Marbles back? If I were a Tory I’d be in despair!!
Well you are not....so go think about something else. Sunak is doing well in v difficult circumstances.
In other news sometimes life cheers one up ..or not as the case may be... Fulham 3 Wolves 2..3 penalties all by VAR...
The difficult circumstances being the fact that he's rubbish.
As Greek pm Kyriakos Mitsotakis pointed out on Kuenssberg, they are the Parthenon marbles. Only we know them as the Elgin marbles. The best argument for Lord Elgin's looting was that they needed to be preserved for posterity, which the British Museum has done. But now Greece is no longer the pauper state it was they should be returned to be displayed magnificently in their proper setting
Is the plan to stick them back on to the Parthenon? I think they'll be put in a museum the same as they are now.
There is very little in life more embarrassing than the fake, performative fury of a weak man. Did not one of Sunak’s advisers realise just how ridiculous he’d look pretending to be angry about the Greek PM wanting the Elgin Marbles back? If I were a Tory I’d be in despair!!
Well you are not....so go think about something else. Sunak is doing well in v difficult circumstances.
In other news sometimes life cheers one up ..or not as the case may be... Fulham 3 Wolves 2..3 penalties all by VAR...
The difficult circumstances being the fact that he's rubbish.
Well it's not the only part of the circumstances, but being rubbish certainly is not helping him address the other circumstances.
As Greek pm Kyriakos Mitsotakis pointed out on Kuenssberg, they are the Parthenon marbles. Only we know them as the Elgin marbles. The best argument for Lord Elgin's looting was that they needed to be preserved for posterity, which the British Museum has done. But now Greece is no longer the pauper state it was they should be returned to be displayed magnificently in their proper setting
It's certainly not 'I refuse to see you' talk even if we have no intention of giving them back. As far as 'bringing up things the host would rather you did not' talk goes, mentioning some antiquities you want back is pretty weaksauce, we can probably survive him mentioning it.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
If there was any swingback in 2010 it occurred at least 3 months before the election. Polling average during the run up to the election consistently showed a 7% average Con lead.
That's not correct. 12 months prior to election in 2009, Labour were regularly in the 20's, sometimes as low as 20%. Regularly very large leads.
Yes but at least 3 months before the election. Surely 'swingback' as a feature of polling models is meant to factor in a mooted last minute (or last few days) swing back to the incumbents which even the last polls of the campaign miss?
What you're talking about is just the polls detecting a move. It makes no sense for them to build 'swingback' into their models if they pick it up by polling.
Rod's theory was as you got closer to GE it focused people's mind more and those unknown or soft we are voting for the opposition as a protest start to shift back to the government of the day.
I am not saying the polling companies should model this 12 months out, but Foxy's claim was significant proportion of the don't knows end up going to opposition based up on US study that 80% broke for the opposition.
That is at odds with Rod's theory (and one that made some of us a lot of money in two separate GE elections).
Ok, we're probably slightly at cross purposes then.
Still, this has made me eyeball the polling since 1979 for a swing back towards the incumbent in the last 6-12 months before the election.
Here's my unscientific, simplified conclusion (where I say 'swing' below I really mean change in lead - the real swing is half that of course):
1979 10% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months (Winter of Discontent). 1983 5% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months. 1987 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 1992 10% swing to the incumbents (C) 15-12 months out, then broadly level. (But all the polls underestimated C by 5-10%) 1997 10% swing to the incumbents (C) from 15 months out. 2001 5% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 12 months (ignoring the brief fuel prices protest polling blip 6 months out). 2005 5% swing to the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months. (But polls overestimated L by 5-10%) 2010 10% swing to the incumbents (L) in the months 12-3 then broadly unchanged until the GE. 2015 10% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 2017 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the months 12-1 then 15% swing away in the GE campaign. Net neutral. 2019 10-15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months (after change of leader).
So, after all that, yes there's usually but not always a swing to the incumbents in the last 12 months, boosting their lead or reducing the opposition's lead by an average of 10%.
Not enough for the Tories this time of course.
A reduction of c. 10% is what I would expect. Bringing us to a Labour lead of 9-10% on polling day. What that entails depends very much on 2 things. The distribution of those votes. I can't see UNS being of much relevance. And. Scotland. I suspect a Labour majority of 30 would be something both major Parties would take right now if offered it.
I wouldn't see Starmer taking less than 50 this far out.
A nice write up of the march by Jewish Chronicle editor Jake Wallis Simons:
A few reflections on the march against antisemitism today, the biggest since the Battle of Cable Street. There was not a single masked face; not a single act of intimidation or vandalism; not a single call for death or genocide; not a single desecration of our monuments or statutes; and not a single bad-tempered interaction with the police. (I did however see a placard about chicken soup, one about Jewish mothers not being monsters, one asking people to become anti-Marmite rather than antisemite, and one declaring a desire for a Jewish husband, including a phone number.) It was all very good-humoured and moving. The police were there to protect those attending, not to defend societyagainst them. Officers were all smiles and everything was smooth and easy. The @metpoliceuk was thanked at the end, as was the glorious @CST_UK. I especially valued seeing the proud Iranians there, flying their flags and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel and Jews against fanatical jihadism and the theocratic regime in Tehran. Old Tommy Robinson was carted off shortly after he arrived, and good riddance. As the march got going, the atmosphere was at times quite quiet. We ordinary folk are not activists. We are not used to this sort of thing, did not have ready-made chants and felt a little embarrassed by raising our voices. When we did, however, we called for the release of the hostages, the prosecution of those guilty of hate crimes and peace. @Roxanna04749331 and I overcame our Englishness to lead several rounds of “bring them home.” We were slightly over-caffeinated. We sang traditional Jewish songs asserting the right of the people of Israel simply to live and calling for peace. One poignant sign read “I’m allowed to be proud of being Jewish,” as if the bearer was almost trying to convince himself. In Parliament Square, the statue of Winston Churchill stooped above us like an ally. There were many chants and songs for peace, repeated frequently and with much feeling. In the @chiefrabbi’s wonderful and moving speech, which stood out magnificently from the rest, he made it utterly clear that every innocent Palestinian death — fetishised by Hamas — is a tragedy. He made it clear that this was a war that Israel did not ask for or want, and we raised a universal prayer for peace. We did feel the absence of political support. It was wonderful to see @TomTugendhat@RobertJenrick@peterkyle and others, but there should have been so many more politicians standing up for Jews, including party leaders and front benchers. It was also baffling to see that while the @JLC_UK came out to bat, the @BoardofDeputies failed dismally to wholeheartedly support the rally. This shouldn’t have been controversial. It was a matter of fundamental British and Jewish values.
Hate march in favour of genocide and killing babies
If only they had an implicitly genocidal chant they could have roared out to make it clearer. Which they could then seek to amend, tacitly acknowledging the problems with it.
Has there ever been polling or research into the effect of a candidates name? Someone asked about Ed Davey - I don’t know a lot about him other than he reminds me a bit of Morrissey, but ‘Davey’ doesn’t sound like a strong enough name to be PM, or leader of a party somehow
There must be some effect; Ed Hitler's never going to do very well is he?
There is very little in life more embarrassing than the fake, performative fury of a weak man. Did not one of Sunak’s advisers realise just how ridiculous he’d look pretending to be angry about the Greek PM wanting the Elgin Marbles back? If I were a Tory I’d be in despair!!
Sunak is being very badly advised generally it seems to me.
An explanation, possibly, based on something in I think the Telegraph about focus groups recently, is that the swing vote focus groups are full of people bleating on about this kind of culture war crap rather than actual pocket book stuff that will determine the election. Tory strategist listening to focus group and not polling.
I've long held the view that 'culture war' stuff (a term that is as broadly definable and hard to pin down as 'woke' yet not as criticised) can have resonance, a lot of people will agree in principle with the sorts of things that might be raved about on tv or in the papers in that area, but you cannot have it form the meat of your message or campaign. People can and will agree with it but not vote for you if they don't have other good reasons to do so, regarding the economy, of resolving the Brexit issue, or voting against a cuddly anti-semite or whatever they choose to personally feel is particularly important. It instead adds colour and emphasis to your messaging, not be the whole message.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
If there was any swingback in 2010 it occurred at least 3 months before the election. Polling average during the run up to the election consistently showed a 7% average Con lead.
That's not correct. 12 months prior to election in 2009, Labour were regularly in the 20's, sometimes as low as 20%. Regularly very large leads.
Yes but at least 3 months before the election. Surely 'swingback' as a feature of polling models is meant to factor in a mooted last minute (or last few days) swing back to the incumbents which even the last polls of the campaign miss?
What you're talking about is just the polls detecting a move. It makes no sense for them to build 'swingback' into their models if they pick it up by polling.
Rod's theory was as you got closer to GE it focused people's mind more and those unknown or soft we are voting for the opposition as a protest start to shift back to the government of the day.
I am not saying the polling companies should model this 12 months out, but Foxy's claim was significant proportion of the don't knows end up going to opposition based up on US study that 80% broke for the opposition.
That is at odds with Rod's theory (and one that made some of us a lot of money in two separate GE elections).
Ok, we're probably slightly at cross purposes then.
Still, this has made me eyeball the polling since 1979 for a swing back towards the incumbent in the last 6-12 months before the election.
Here's my unscientific, simplified conclusion (where I say 'swing' below I really mean change in lead - the real swing is half that of course):
1979 10% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months (Winter of Discontent). 1983 5% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months. 1987 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 1992 10% swing to the incumbents (C) 15-12 months out, then broadly level. (But all the polls underestimated C by 5-10%) 1997 10% swing to the incumbents (C) from 15 months out. 2001 5% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 12 months (ignoring the brief fuel prices protest polling blip 6 months out). 2005 5% swing to the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months. (But polls overestimated L by 5-10%) 2010 10% swing to the incumbents (L) in the months 12-3 then broadly unchanged until the GE. 2015 10% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 2017 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the months 12-1 then 15% swing away in the GE campaign. Net neutral. 2019 10-15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months (after change of leader).
So, after all that, yes there's usually but not always a swing to the incumbents in the last 12 months, boosting their lead or reducing the opposition's lead by an average of 10%.
Not enough for the Tories this time of course.
Sure, lots can change in the six months or year before an election, but when we look at the appalling figures for satisfaction with this government it doesn't look likely.
Perhaps an optimist would interpret the chart differently, its is all upside!
Yes, presumably why some do feel a May election is more likely, fearing it will get worse not better with time, vs those who hold out hope for something, anything, to lead to a change with more time.
As Greek pm Kyriakos Mitsotakis pointed out on Kuenssberg, they are the Parthenon marbles. Only we know them as the Elgin marbles. The best argument for Lord Elgin's looting was that they needed to be preserved for posterity, which the British Museum has done. But now Greece is no longer the pauper state it was they should be returned to be displayed magnificently in their proper setting
It's certainly not 'I refuse to see you' talk even if we have no intention of giving them back. As far as 'bringing up things the host would rather you did not' talk goes, mentioning some antiquities you want back is pretty weaksauce, we can probably survive him mentioning it.
This was the sort of faceplant that I think Call Me Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton was brought in to prevent, perhaps.
I wonder how many times he has banged his head on the desk already?
There is very little in life more embarrassing than the fake, performative fury of a weak man. Did not one of Sunak’s advisers realise just how ridiculous he’d look pretending to be angry about the Greek PM wanting the Elgin Marbles back? If I were a Tory I’d be in despair!!
Sunak is being very badly advised generally it seems to me.
An explanation, possibly, based on something in I think the Telegraph about focus groups recently, is that the swing vote focus groups are full of people bleating on about this kind of culture war crap rather than actual pocket book stuff that will determine the election. Tory strategist listening to focus group and not polling.
The other problem the Conservatives have.
If you are bright, young, ambitious and into politics, why the hell would you go and work for the Conservatives right now? It's a job, sure, but also a one way ticket to Loserville. As conference season showed, the fun is elsewhere.
So I rather suspect that the backroom team is made up of the second raters, the really ideological, and the chancers.
Couldn't happen to a nicer party.
On the contrary, now is the time to join, just as Blair did under Foot, or Sunak did in the early noughties.
It gives you a strong position in a decade when the recovery hits, though you have a long slog to get there.
Sunak is complete twit. He’s convincing nobody, let alone the “undecided” who by definition at this juncture are basically the permanently confused and straight-out mentally retarded.
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Rishi does a decent line in pathetic childishness when he doesn't get his way. He really needed a defeat in some hopeless Labour stronghold as part of his preparation to become an MP.
I read the BBC article re Sunak and the Greek PM and was dismayed - how pathetic is RS to cancel a meeting with a NATO ally over the Marbles? Every one knows the game - the Greeks say they want them and we say no.
RS’ problem is simple - he has never been in a job where he has been held to account. At Goldmans, he would have been one of the golden boys. At TCI, being a hedge fund manager, the banks’ analysts and sales people would have been licking his balls telling him how great he was. He was parachuted into Richmond. He has never had a rough department role - Chief Sec to the Treasury then C o E then PM.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
If there was any swingback in 2010 it occurred at least 3 months before the election. Polling average during the run up to the election consistently showed a 7% average Con lead.
That's not correct. 12 months prior to election in 2009, Labour were regularly in the 20's, sometimes as low as 20%. Regularly very large leads.
Yes but at least 3 months before the election. Surely 'swingback' as a feature of polling models is meant to factor in a mooted last minute (or last few days) swing back to the incumbents which even the last polls of the campaign miss?
What you're talking about is just the polls detecting a move. It makes no sense for them to build 'swingback' into their models if they pick it up by polling.
Rod's theory was as you got closer to GE it focused people's mind more and those unknown or soft we are voting for the opposition as a protest start to shift back to the government of the day.
I am not saying the polling companies should model this 12 months out, but Foxy's claim was significant proportion of the don't knows end up going to opposition based up on US study that 80% broke for the opposition.
That is at odds with Rod's theory (and one that made some of us a lot of money in two separate GE elections).
Ok, we're probably slightly at cross purposes then.
Still, this has made me eyeball the polling since 1979 for a swing back towards the incumbent in the last 6-12 months before the election.
Here's my unscientific, simplified conclusion (where I say 'swing' below I really mean change in lead - the real swing is half that of course):
1979 10% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months (Winter of Discontent). 1983 5% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months. 1987 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 1992 10% swing to the incumbents (C) 15-12 months out, then broadly level. (But all the polls underestimated C by 5-10%) 1997 10% swing to the incumbents (C) from 15 months out. 2001 5% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 12 months (ignoring the brief fuel prices protest polling blip 6 months out). 2005 5% swing to the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months. (But polls overestimated L by 5-10%) 2010 10% swing to the incumbents (L) in the months 12-3 then broadly unchanged until the GE. 2015 10% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 2017 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the months 12-1 then 15% swing away in the GE campaign. Net neutral. 2019 10-15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months (after change of leader).
So, after all that, yes there's usually but not always a swing to the incumbents in the last 12 months, boosting their lead or reducing the opposition's lead by an average of 10%.
Not enough for the Tories this time of course.
Sure, lots can change in the six months or year before an election, but when we look at the appalling figures for satisfaction with this government it doesn't look likely.
Perhaps an optimist would interpret the chart differently, its is all upside!
Yes, presumably why some do feel a May election is more likely, fearing it will get worse not better with time, vs those who hold out hope for something, anything, to lead to a change with more time.
I think there was another indicator just in.
There is a settlement for the Doctors, which is being backdated for a year, but for some undetectible reason not being paid until after April.
Does that not put it on next year's Govt finances?
Sunak is complete twit. He’s convincing nobody, let alone the “undecided” who by definition at this juncture are basically the permanently confused and straight-out mentally retarded.
I'm reminded of him trying to come across as tougher in the Tory leadership debates, and just coming across as an arse.
Some people just cannot pull off certain images or personas. Boris, for example, could occasionally do a good, rousing kind of bluff confidence, he could be serious occasionally, but it was not his day to day strength. May was not great at coming across as empathetic.
Sunak seems to be able to do a kind of 'I'm the grown up here' earnestness, when he was doing the NI protocol stuff, compared with a diametrically opposed CBeebies style energy which frankly irritates me but people seemed to like well enough before.
I think part of his problem is some of the choices he wants to make (or feels he needs to make) would work better with a harder, tougher kind of delivery, but even if he does mean it it doesn't feel like he does.
Ed Miliband could tell him about the pitfalls of trying too hard.
There is very little in life more embarrassing than the fake, performative fury of a weak man. Did not one of Sunak’s advisers realise just how ridiculous he’d look pretending to be angry about the Greek PM wanting the Elgin Marbles back? If I were a Tory I’d be in despair!!
Sunak is being very badly advised generally it seems to me.
An explanation, possibly, based on something in I think the Telegraph about focus groups recently, is that the swing vote focus groups are full of people bleating on about this kind of culture war crap rather than actual pocket book stuff that will determine the election. Tory strategist listening to focus group and not polling.
I've long held the view that 'culture war' stuff (a term that is as broadly definable and hard to pin down as 'woke' yet not as criticised) can have resonance, a lot of people will agree in principle with the sorts of things that might be raved about on tv or in the papers in that area, but you cannot have it form the meat of your message or campaign. People can and will agree with it but not vote for you if they don't have other good reasons to do so, regarding the economy, of resolving the Brexit issue, or voting against a cuddly anti-semite or whatever they choose to personally feel is particularly important. It instead adds colour and emphasis to your messaging, not be the whole message.
What's amazing is how many people, including a majority of the GOP, believe Lavrov in this.
I keep pointing out that the Russians are brutal realists. Their text and speech at a given moment is designed to gain advantage and can be dropped/changed/denied at any other given moment. Several months ago they signed an agreement to let grain thru and broke it the next day. It's not that they're untrustworthy, it's just that they know how to use language in wartime.
Yesterday was the busiest ever for American air travel.
I actually flew yesterday, back from New Orleans into Laguardia. Completely stressless experience.
My last flight on an American airline was on 2nd January 2020, from Boston to Shannon. Plans to visit Washington DC later in 2020 were put on hold. (There was a woman sitting in my aisle seat who refused to move).
What are the chances of the UK being the only major European country to have a centre-left government in a couple of years' time?
Poland says "hi!"
I think the current situation is not dissimilar to 2008-2010: incumbents got kicked out everywhere. Then because of the Global Financial Crisis, and now because of rising interest rates.
Hence, the Netherlands kicked out their center left government... but conversely, the (relatively right wing) Conservatives are being punished in the UK, and the United Right being evicted from government in Poland last month.
Now there are - today - a lot more left wing governments in power in Europe (Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Sweden to name a few). So I'd expect a swing right, but a lot of this is simply going to be kick the incumbent.
What are the chances of the UK being the only major European country to have a centre-left government in a couple of years' time?
Poland says "hi!"
I think the current situation is not dissimilar to 2008-2010: incumbents got kicked out everywhere. Then because of the Global Financial Crisis, and now because of rising interest rates.
Hence, the Netherlands kicked out their center left government... but conversely, the (relatively right wing) Conservatives are being punished in the UK, and the United Right being evicted from government in Poland last month.
Now there are - today - a lot more left wing governments in power in Europe (Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Sweden to name a few). So I'd expect a swing right, but a lot of this is simply going to be kick the incumbent.
"Vladimir Putin 'stepping up invasion' in Ukraine as Russia sees almost 1,000 casualties a day The Ministry of Defence said Russian casualties were running at an average of 931 per day in November"
A nice write up of the march by Jewish Chronicle editor Jake Wallis Simons:
A few reflections on the march against antisemitism today, the biggest since the Battle of Cable Street. There was not a single masked face; not a single act of intimidation or vandalism; not a single call for death or genocide; not a single desecration of our monuments or statutes; and not a single bad-tempered interaction with the police. (I did however see a placard about chicken soup, one about Jewish mothers not being monsters, one asking people to become anti-Marmite rather than antisemite, and one declaring a desire for a Jewish husband, including a phone number.) It was all very good-humoured and moving. The police were there to protect those attending, not to defend societyagainst them. Officers were all smiles and everything was smooth and easy. The @metpoliceuk was thanked at the end, as was the glorious @CST_UK. I especially valued seeing the proud Iranians there, flying their flags and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel and Jews against fanatical jihadism and the theocratic regime in Tehran. Old Tommy Robinson was carted off shortly after he arrived, and good riddance. As the march got going, the atmosphere was at times quite quiet. We ordinary folk are not activists. We are not used to this sort of thing, did not have ready-made chants and felt a little embarrassed by raising our voices. When we did, however, we called for the release of the hostages, the prosecution of those guilty of hate crimes and peace. @Roxanna04749331 and I overcame our Englishness to lead several rounds of “bring them home.” We were slightly over-caffeinated. We sang traditional Jewish songs asserting the right of the people of Israel simply to live and calling for peace. One poignant sign read “I’m allowed to be proud of being Jewish,” as if the bearer was almost trying to convince himself. In Parliament Square, the statue of Winston Churchill stooped above us like an ally. There were many chants and songs for peace, repeated frequently and with much feeling. In the @chiefrabbi’s wonderful and moving speech, which stood out magnificently from the rest, he made it utterly clear that every innocent Palestinian death — fetishised by Hamas — is a tragedy. He made it clear that this was a war that Israel did not ask for or want, and we raised a universal prayer for peace. We did feel the absence of political support. It was wonderful to see @TomTugendhat@RobertJenrick@peterkyle and others, but there should have been so many more politicians standing up for Jews, including party leaders and front benchers. It was also baffling to see that while the @JLC_UK came out to bat, the @BoardofDeputies failed dismally to wholeheartedly support the rally. This shouldn’t have been controversial. It was a matter of fundamental British and Jewish values.
Hate march in favour of genocide and killing babies
It's a good job you're not an antisemite like most of the Jezziah's faction. I hate to think what your posts would look like if they were motivated by Nazism rather than just stupidity.
What's amazing is how many people, including a majority of the GOP, believe Lavrov in this.
I keep pointing out that the Russians are brutal realists. Their text and speech at a given moment is designed to gain advantage and can be dropped/changed/denied at any other given moment. Several months ago they signed an agreement to let grain thru and broke it the next day. It's not that they're untrustworthy, it's just that they know how to use language in wartime.
Surely they're untrustworthy *because* they know how to use language in wartime?
I'd also disagree with the latter. All they're doing is sending out a load of contradictory messages, knowing that one or more messages will resonate with someone. So they can talk 'peace', whilst threatening everyone with nukes. They can say "we don't threaten Europe," whilst saying that they want to to get as far as Romania. Or Berlin. Or Paris.
They're basically shit-talkers; think @Leon as a government.
A nice write up of the march by Jewish Chronicle editor Jake Wallis Simons:
A few reflections on the march against antisemitism today, the biggest since the Battle of Cable Street. There was not a single masked face; not a single act of intimidation or vandalism; not a single call for death or genocide; not a single desecration of our monuments or statutes; and not a single bad-tempered interaction with the police. (I did however see a placard about chicken soup, one about Jewish mothers not being monsters, one asking people to become anti-Marmite rather than antisemite, and one declaring a desire for a Jewish husband, including a phone number.) It was all very good-humoured and moving. The police were there to protect those attending, not to defend societyagainst them. Officers were all smiles and everything was smooth and easy. The @metpoliceuk was thanked at the end, as was the glorious @CST_UK. I especially valued seeing the proud Iranians there, flying their flags and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel and Jews against fanatical jihadism and the theocratic regime in Tehran. Old Tommy Robinson was carted off shortly after he arrived, and good riddance. As the march got going, the atmosphere was at times quite quiet. We ordinary folk are not activists. We are not used to this sort of thing, did not have ready-made chants and felt a little embarrassed by raising our voices. When we did, however, we called for the release of the hostages, the prosecution of those guilty of hate crimes and peace. @Roxanna04749331 and I overcame our Englishness to lead several rounds of “bring them home.” We were slightly over-caffeinated. We sang traditional Jewish songs asserting the right of the people of Israel simply to live and calling for peace. One poignant sign read “I’m allowed to be proud of being Jewish,” as if the bearer was almost trying to convince himself. In Parliament Square, the statue of Winston Churchill stooped above us like an ally. There were many chants and songs for peace, repeated frequently and with much feeling. In the @chiefrabbi’s wonderful and moving speech, which stood out magnificently from the rest, he made it utterly clear that every innocent Palestinian death — fetishised by Hamas — is a tragedy. He made it clear that this was a war that Israel did not ask for or want, and we raised a universal prayer for peace. We did feel the absence of political support. It was wonderful to see @TomTugendhat@RobertJenrick@peterkyle and others, but there should have been so many more politicians standing up for Jews, including party leaders and front benchers. It was also baffling to see that while the @JLC_UK came out to bat, the @BoardofDeputies failed dismally to wholeheartedly support the rally. This shouldn’t have been controversial. It was a matter of fundamental British and Jewish values.
Hate march in favour of genocide and killing babies
Your comment is bigoted and stupid in equal measure.
Comments
Or McKinsey Pete possibly with lots of Facebook messaging about how McKinsey always sacks people
"Actually, Red Wall voters are far more interested in the location of ancient Greek carvings than they are in whether they can see a doctor before Christmas."
But the point is, we know Labour was way behind in early May as we had an actual election they got trounced in. So sentiment swung towards the opposition from that point - rather than polls showing big Tory leads being wrong all along. Lots of people really did make up their minds pretty late - for the reasons I gave about loyalties being a bit in flux. Many pollsters then struggled with that as it confounded received wisdom about what should be happening.
A few reflections on the march against antisemitism today, the biggest since the Battle of Cable Street.
There was not a single masked face; not a single act of intimidation or vandalism; not a single call for death or genocide; not a single desecration of our monuments or statutes; and not a single bad-tempered interaction with the police. (I did however see a placard about chicken soup, one about Jewish mothers not being monsters, one asking people to become anti-Marmite rather than antisemite, and one declaring a desire for a Jewish husband, including a phone number.)
It was all very good-humoured and moving. The police were there to protect those attending, not to defend societyagainst them. Officers were all smiles and everything was smooth and easy. The @metpoliceuk
was thanked at the end, as was the glorious @CST_UK.
I especially valued seeing the proud Iranians there, flying their flags and standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel and Jews against fanatical jihadism and the theocratic regime in Tehran.
Old Tommy Robinson was carted off shortly after he arrived, and good riddance. As the march got going, the atmosphere was at times quite quiet. We ordinary folk are not activists. We are not used to this sort of thing, did not have ready-made chants and felt a little embarrassed by raising our voices. When we did, however, we called for the release of the hostages, the prosecution of those guilty of hate crimes and peace.
@Roxanna04749331 and I overcame our Englishness to lead several rounds of “bring them home.” We were slightly over-caffeinated. We sang traditional Jewish songs asserting the right of the people of Israel simply to live and calling for peace. One poignant sign read “I’m allowed to be proud of being Jewish,” as if the bearer was almost trying to convince himself.
In Parliament Square, the statue of Winston Churchill stooped above us like an ally. There were many chants and songs for peace, repeated frequently and with much feeling. In the @chiefrabbi’s wonderful and moving speech, which stood out magnificently from the rest, he made it utterly clear that every innocent Palestinian death — fetishised by Hamas — is a tragedy. He made it clear that this was a war that Israel did not ask for or want, and we raised a universal prayer for peace.
We did feel the absence of political support. It was wonderful to see @TomTugendhat @RobertJenrick @peterkyle and others, but there should have been so many more politicians standing up for Jews, including party leaders and front benchers. It was also baffling to see that while the @JLC_UK came out to bat, the @BoardofDeputies failed dismally to wholeheartedly support the rally. This shouldn’t have been controversial. It was a matter of fundamental British and Jewish values.
But let’s not focus on the negatives. I can say with all confidence that not one of the 105,000 people there wished anything but peace and prosperity to Palestinians and Muslims. There were no hate chants, no calls for violence and absolutely no racism. If there were any extremists there, I didn’t see them and they were utterly insignificant in number.
On the streets today were people from all backgrounds, religions and walks of life. There were many bobble hats. (Many excellent @JewishChron people.) This was unmistakably the silent majority finally discovering its voice. There was much camaraderie and good humour. One lady gave my step-daughter a yellow ribbon to demand the release of the hostages, and tied it into her hair. Many people recognised me and expressed their love and support. It was a unification of Jews and non-Jews alike, marching in favour of tolerance, freedom, liberalism and justice. And standing against jihadism.
Great Britain: 105,000 of you turned up in the cold and wet today and did us bloody proud. We can all hold our heads a little higher tonight. Thank you @antisemitism led by the heroic @gideonfalter for organising such a powerful and historic moment.
In other news sometimes life cheers one up ..or not as the case may be... Fulham 3 Wolves 2..3 penalties all by VAR...
An explanation, possibly, based on something in I think the Telegraph about focus groups recently, is that the swing vote focus groups are full of people bleating on about this kind of culture war crap rather than actual pocket book stuff that will determine the election. Tory strategist listening to focus group and not polling.
Which is, I suppose, ironic.
If you are bright, young, ambitious and into politics, why the hell would you go and work for the Conservatives right now? It's a job, sure, but also a one way ticket to Loserville. As conference season showed, the fun is elsewhere.
So I rather suspect that the backroom team is made up of the second raters, the really ideological, and the chancers.
Couldn't happen to a nicer party.
Police estimated 45,000 people marched in the demonstration on Saturday while it said 50,000 took part in Sunday's protest.
https://www.reuters.com/world/thousands-march-against-antisemitism-london-2023-11-26/
I wonder how many times he has banged his head on the desk already?
It gives you a strong position in a decade when the recovery hits, though you have a long slog to get there.
He’s convincing nobody, let alone the “undecided” who by definition at this juncture are basically the permanently confused and straight-out mentally retarded.
There is a settlement for the Doctors, which is being backdated for a year, but for some undetectible reason not being paid until after April.
Does that not put it on next year's Govt finances?
Some people just cannot pull off certain images or personas. Boris, for example, could occasionally do a good, rousing kind of bluff confidence, he could be serious occasionally, but it was not his day to day strength. May was not great at coming across as empathetic.
Sunak seems to be able to do a kind of 'I'm the grown up here' earnestness, when he was doing the NI protocol stuff, compared with a diametrically opposed CBeebies style energy which frankly irritates me but people seemed to like well enough before.
I think part of his problem is some of the choices he wants to make (or feels he needs to make) would work better with a harder, tougher kind of delivery, but even if he does mean it it doesn't feel like he does.
Ed Miliband could tell him about the pitfalls of trying too hard.
I actually flew yesterday, back from New Orleans into Laguardia. Completely stressless experience.
I think the current situation is not dissimilar to 2008-2010: incumbents got kicked out everywhere. Then because of the Global Financial Crisis, and now because of rising interest rates.
Hence, the Netherlands kicked out their center left government... but conversely, the (relatively right wing) Conservatives are being punished in the UK, and the United Right being evicted from government in Poland last month.
Now there are - today - a lot more left wing governments in power in Europe (Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Sweden to name a few). So I'd expect a swing right, but a lot of this is simply going to be kick the incumbent.
Just saying......
The Ministry of Defence said Russian casualties were running at an average of 931 per day in November"
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/putin-invasion-ukraine-russia-casualties-grant-shapps-b1123204.html
I'd also disagree with the latter. All they're doing is sending out a load of contradictory messages, knowing that one or more messages will resonate with someone. So they can talk 'peace', whilst threatening everyone with nukes. They can say "we don't threaten Europe," whilst saying that they want to to get as far as Romania. Or Berlin. Or Paris.
They're basically shit-talkers; think @Leon as a government.
Stuff like this: https://x.com/josiahmortimer/status/1729447269970190629?s=20