Given Lord Cameron's "issues" with Greensill, it was inappropriate to bring him back. I would have been much happier if, for example, William Hague was returned to the cabinet.
Really? William Hague who boasted in 2012 that "President Assad's days are numbered" ?
William Hague is arguably the most overrated Conservative politician. He was wrong about almost everything but he's got a deep voice, a sense of humour and has been around almost forever, which makes him an elder statesman and party grandee.
In an alternative timeline he'd currently be regarded as a latter day Enoch Powell after his prediction about Britain turning into a foreign land.
Having done everything he could to be PM, President of Oxford Union and OUCA, 1st in PPE, business career than MP before 30 and Cabinet by 35 Hague made a colossal error of judgement in 1997 by standing for leader (as he feared Portillo would get it in 2001 which we all know he didn't). He should have backed Howard to be leader as he originally planned then he would have been in pole position to take over after Howard's defeat to Blair in 2001.
He would have likely become Conservative leader then, not IDS, probably gained enough seats as Howard did in 2005 to stay as leader given he was much younger than Howard and then been in prime position to be PM in 2010 and beat Brown, not Cameron
Robert Reich @RBReich · 16m It's no longer simply "Democrats vs. Republicans."
We've been pulled into a struggle between democracy and fascism, between freedom and strongman tyranny.
The 2024 general election is less than a year away. Know the stakes.
===
First stop Iowa. Just over a month.
It isn't, even if Trump wins again he isn't going to be a dictator unless the army back him and they didn't even support his Capitol Hill attempted 'coup' when he was still President in Jan 2021
One of his people's first tasks will be removing any military commander not 'sufficiently patriotic'. They have learned that lesson.
He would also need the GOP to take the Senate in 2024 then, as generals have to get Senate approval to be appointed even if nominated by the President
Could it be that Biden is planning to stand down at a late stage? For a number of reasons he is postponing it: 1. He wants to keep his options open though he knows in his heart he's not up to it. 2. He doesn't want to be a lame duck any more than he is. 3 (and this is the key one). He knows Kamala is not up to it either and that Trump would likely beat her. He has a good working relationship with her and wants to postpone the pain of telling her he will not endorse her as his successor as long as possible.
The other issue is the - sadly effective - way Trump is able to humiliate and intimidate opponents by browbeating them in debates and by seizing on a real or imagined character trait and coining a pithy name for it. Pocahontas (which was genius), crooked Hilary, Little Marco and so on. The one person so far it didn’t work on was Joe Biden.
Of the possible successors Mayor Pete would I think have the best chance of neutralising this. He’s a very good debater, quick on his feet and seems unflappable.
Trump did use the 'Sleepy Joe' line. Do these derogatory nicknames Trump comes up with have any effect? Could it be that Hilary Clinton was just not that good a candidate?
PB should be able to come up with a good name for Trump. 'Convict Trump' maybe? 'Donald Perp'? You guys will do much better than those.
If his opponent was Mayor Pete, he’d call him Buttplug.
Yeah, good one, but that's not helping us keep Trump out and save Western Democracy.
He’s generally avoided crude monikers too so I don’t think he’d do that. It also doesn’t actually plant seeds of doubt about character or policies. But the key anyway is the reaction. Buttigieg would shrug it off, as did Biden with sleepy Joe.
Given Lord Cameron's "issues" with Greensill, it was inappropriate to bring him back. I would have been much happier if, for example, William Hague was returned to the cabinet.
Really? William Hague who boasted in 2012 that "President Assad's days are numbered" ?
William Hague is arguably the most overrated Conservative politician. He was wrong about almost everything but he's got a deep voice, a sense of humour and has been around almost forever, which makes him an elder statesman and party grandee.
It's strange how radically peoples perceptions of others vary (independently of political stuff). I rather like Hague, but you clearly don't. Ed Davey cropped up, I think this morning. I think he's totally useless and just don't like him, and yet he seems to have his fans.
No, I like Hague, and could listen to him all day; I just don't rate him very highly.
Dr. Foxy - What McWhorter is trying to establish in that paragraph is that the invasion did not almost "wipe out" the existing population. And that modern English still owes much to that population.
Frances Pryor made the case in this book that the Saxon invasion was mostly a peaceful cultural event, citing the absence of archaeological evidence of battles, burnt villages etc, rather than a conquest as generally understood.
I don't know enough archeology to dispute his claims, but it is an interesting argument. It would fit with having only a minor genetic influence on our make up.
The sources are of course so thin for the 5th century especially that this will always be a problem; and archaeology while great is always limited.
Two reasons for disputing the peaceful nature of Anglo Saxon activities: firstly the fact that the British language disappeared except for the periphery - which tends to suggest a degree of unwelcome dominance, and secondly the apparent disappearance of Christianity from the south east and east of Britain, being replaced by Germanic forms of religion. (The south west and west is of course a different story, where it never went away and was astonished to discover that Augustine was trying to convert the already long converted.)
Robert Reich @RBReich · 16m It's no longer simply "Democrats vs. Republicans."
We've been pulled into a struggle between democracy and fascism, between freedom and strongman tyranny.
The 2024 general election is less than a year away. Know the stakes.
===
First stop Iowa. Just over a month.
It isn't, even if Trump wins again he isn't going to be a dictator unless the army back him and they didn't even support his Capitol Hill attempted 'coup' when he was still President in Jan 2021
So it turns out the Algerian child stabber in Dublin was once the subject of a deportation order. Which he fought for five years. No wonder the Gardai wanted to keep it all quiet
Small price to pay for those with the right mindset to feel good about themselves.
Funnily enough, it is never their children or their areas that get attacked....
People who are most opposed to immigration tend to live in areas with the lowest immigration, in this country at least.
Well that makes logical sense doesn't it. If there's something happening in another place you don't like, then you'd want to stop it happening in your area before it does happen. (This isn't an endorsement of that opinion, just pointing out that it's a rational position).
But why do the people who have minimal experience of it dislike it more than the people who experience it every day? Who is likely to have the opinion most rooted in reality, I wonder?
People from the suburbs who travel into London have quite a good grasp of what the more immigrant heavy areas are like. Just because they don’t live in them doesn’t mean they never pass by
Your point makes no sense - it’s like saying people who don’t like a certain type of food are those who don’t eat it that often ; it’s because they don’t like it
My Father-in-law doesn't like foreign food. He's never tried any because he knows he's not going to like it.
Just sticks to British dishes like pizza, kebabs and curry then?
Could it be that Biden is planning to stand down at a late stage? For a number of reasons he is postponing it: 1. He wants to keep his options open though he knows in his heart he's not up to it. 2. He doesn't want to be a lame duck any more than he is. 3 (and this is the key one). He knows Kamala is not up to it either and that Trump would likely beat her. He has a good working relationship with her and wants to postpone the pain of telling her he will not endorse her as his successor as long as possible.
The other issue is the - sadly effective - way Trump is able to humiliate and intimidate opponents by browbeating them in debates and by seizing on a real or imagined character trait and coining a pithy name for it. Pocahontas (which was genius), crooked Hilary, Little Marco and so on. The one person so far it didn’t work on was Joe Biden.
Of the possible successors Mayor Pete would I think have the best chance of neutralising this. He’s a very good debater, quick on his feet and seems unflappable.
Trump did use the 'Sleepy Joe' line. Do these derogatory nicknames Trump comes up with have any effect? Could it be that Hilary Clinton was just not that good a candidate?
PB should be able to come up with a good name for Trump. 'Convict Trump' maybe? 'Donald Perp'? You guys will do much better than those.
If his opponent was Mayor Pete, he’d call him Buttplug.
Yeah, good one, but that's not helping us keep Trump out and save Western Democracy.
The best way to keep Trump out is to offer Trump's policies in a different package.
How does one repackage racism, mysoginy, economic incontinence and good old fashioned fascism?
So it turns out the Algerian child stabber in Dublin was once the subject of a deportation order. Which he fought for five years. No wonder the Gardai wanted to keep it all quiet
Small price to pay for those with the right mindset to feel good about themselves.
Funnily enough, it is never their children or their areas that get attacked....
People who are most opposed to immigration tend to live in areas with the lowest immigration, in this country at least.
Well that makes logical sense doesn't it. If there's something happening in another place you don't like, then you'd want to stop it happening in your area before it does happen. (This isn't an endorsement of that opinion, just pointing out that it's a rational position).
But why do the people who have minimal experience of it dislike it more than the people who experience it every day? Who is likely to have the opinion most rooted in reality, I wonder?
People from the suburbs who travel into London have quite a good grasp of what the more immigrant heavy areas are like. Just because they don’t live in them doesn’t mean they never pass by
Your point makes no sense - it’s like saying people who don’t like a certain type of food are those who don’t eat it that often ; it’s because they don’t like it
My Father-in-law doesn't like foreign food. He's never tried any because he knows he's not going to like it.
Just sticks to British dishes like pizza, kebabs and curry then?
Robert Reich @RBReich · 16m It's no longer simply "Democrats vs. Republicans."
We've been pulled into a struggle between democracy and fascism, between freedom and strongman tyranny.
The 2024 general election is less than a year away. Know the stakes.
===
First stop Iowa. Just over a month.
It isn't, even if Trump wins again he isn't going to be a dictator unless the army back him and they didn't even support his Capitol Hill attempted 'coup' when he was still President in Jan 2021
He really is.
Even if he stands and loses, we must expect a second Jan 6th attempt to block the duly elected President taking office. After all, he will have done it once without any effective sanction. Even though the Colorado court found him guilty of insurrection, it shied away from blocking him on the ballot for some frankly bizarre reasons.
So it turns out the Algerian child stabber in Dublin was once the subject of a deportation order. Which he fought for five years. No wonder the Gardai wanted to keep it all quiet
Small price to pay for those with the right mindset to feel good about themselves.
Funnily enough, it is never their children or their areas that get attacked....
People who are most opposed to immigration tend to live in areas with the lowest immigration, in this country at least.
Well that makes logical sense doesn't it. If there's something happening in another place you don't like, then you'd want to stop it happening in your area before it does happen. (This isn't an endorsement of that opinion, just pointing out that it's a rational position).
But why do the people who have minimal experience of it dislike it more than the people who experience it every day? Who is likely to have the opinion most rooted in reality, I wonder?
People from the suburbs who travel into London have quite a good grasp of what the more immigrant heavy areas are like. Just because they don’t live in them doesn’t mean they never pass by
Your point makes no sense - it’s like saying people who don’t like a certain type of food are those who don’t eat it that often ; it’s because they don’t like it
My Father-in-law doesn't like foreign food. He's never tried any because he knows he's not going to like it.
Just sticks to British dishes like pizza, kebabs and curry then?
Robert Reich @RBReich · 16m It's no longer simply "Democrats vs. Republicans."
We've been pulled into a struggle between democracy and fascism, between freedom and strongman tyranny.
The 2024 general election is less than a year away. Know the stakes.
===
First stop Iowa. Just over a month.
It isn't, even if Trump wins again he isn't going to be a dictator unless the army back him and they didn't even support his Capitol Hill attempted 'coup' when he was still President in Jan 2021
He really is.
Even if he stands and loses, we must expect a second Jan 6th attempt to block the duly elected President taking office. After all, he will have done it once without any effective sanction. Even though the Colorado court found him guilty of insurrection, it shied away from blocking him on the ballot for some frankly bizarre reasons.
Having someone win the electoral college who was ineligible to stand in some states would be a good way to create a secession crisi.
Given Lord Cameron's "issues" with Greensill, it was inappropriate to bring him back. I would have been much happier if, for example, William Hague was returned to the cabinet.
Really? William Hague who boasted in 2012 that "President Assad's days are numbered" ?
William Hague is arguably the most overrated Conservative politician. He was wrong about almost everything but he's got a deep voice, a sense of humour and has been around almost forever, which makes him an elder statesman and party grandee.
It's strange how radically peoples perceptions of others vary (independently of political stuff). I rather like Hague, but you clearly don't. Ed Davey cropped up, I think this morning. I think he's totally useless and just don't like him, and yet he seems to have his fans.
No, I like Hague, and could listen to him all day; I just don't rate him very highly.
I've often thought he would make a very soothing Audible narrator.
Robert Reich @RBReich · 16m It's no longer simply "Democrats vs. Republicans."
We've been pulled into a struggle between democracy and fascism, between freedom and strongman tyranny.
The 2024 general election is less than a year away. Know the stakes.
===
First stop Iowa. Just over a month.
It isn't, even if Trump wins again he isn't going to be a dictator unless the army back him and they didn't even support his Capitol Hill attempted 'coup' when he was still President in Jan 2021
He really is.
Even if he stands and loses, we must expect a second Jan 6th attempt to block the duly elected President taking office. After all, he will have done it once without any effective sanction. Even though the Colorado court found him guilty of insurrection, it shied away from blocking him on the ballot for some frankly bizarre reasons.
If he wins I could imagine a few different equally problematic scenarios.
1. He goes about dismantling the apparatus of democracy to ensure he wins the following election, and succeeds 2. He tries the above but is blocked by Supreme Court or state courts (seems most likely) leading to a showdown and violence or some sort of state by state break up 3. He tries the above, gets it through a cowed SCOTUS and then the “deep state” steps in to stop it, essentially an establishment coup 4. He does things more under the radar, attempts to steal the following election, and we have rioting and colour revolution style goings on 5. He wins this time but Democrats don’t believe / accept it because of alleged irregularities. A reverse version of 2016. Rioting etc.
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Robert Reich @RBReich · 16m It's no longer simply "Democrats vs. Republicans."
We've been pulled into a struggle between democracy and fascism, between freedom and strongman tyranny.
The 2024 general election is less than a year away. Know the stakes.
===
First stop Iowa. Just over a month.
It isn't, even if Trump wins again he isn't going to be a dictator unless the army back him and they didn't even support his Capitol Hill attempted 'coup' when he was still President in Jan 2021
He really is.
Even if he stands and loses, we must expect a second Jan 6th attempt to block the duly elected President taking office. After all, he will have done it once without any effective sanction. Even though the Colorado court found him guilty of insurrection, it shied away from blocking him on the ballot for some frankly bizarre reasons.
Not entirely true he has had no effective sanction, this time next year Trump could be in jail if convicted at his trial for encouraging that very insurrection
I'd assumed that the title Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton was a satirical invention by Private Eye. I gather, however, that it's for real.
Divine intervention.
Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton it is now. He sounds like he solves mysteries from the pen of Dorothy L Sayers. In fact, he told the House of Lords, it was the vicar’s wife who telephoned to say he absolutely had to take the village name (so I guess we’re lucky the rector of Pratts Bottom didn’t get to him first), revealing all in a debut speech that was elegant and funny.
I've just read that; I didn't realise Ken Clarke is in a wheelchair these days. Although the last time I saw him on TV, he did seem to have aged a lot.
He just sounds like such a grown up. Hunt is the only one who comes close in this government.
Steve Coogan in 1990 doing an impression of Clarke (04:20)
A dislikeable persona, perhaps, but a comic genius
What's wrong with him? I rather like him. In particular his work with Hacked Off.
You know why he got so shirty about phone hacking don't you....
Well he used to be a very naughty boy, regularly on the drugs and with prozzies, and an absolute knobhead causing issues. But to minimise damage to his reputation he had a hotline to New International celebrity department, staffed by none other than Andy Coulson. For years, he would ring up his mate Andy and say I am been caught being a naughty boy and somebody is trying to sell a story or I have fallen out with somebody and they are threatening to make me look bad, could you do damage control for me and spike the story with some positive spin. And for years, Andy did so.
Then new management came in to NOTW and said what's going on here then. Our brand is exposing wrong doing, not acting as PR for them. You are to stop this immediately, don't act as his PR agent, bloody bury him. Well Steve didn't take too kindly to this at all and has been on a mission ever since.
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Rishi does a decent line in pathetic childishness when he doesn't get his way. He really needed a defeat in some hopeless Labour stronghold as part of his preparation to become an MP.
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Rishi does a decent line in pathetic childishness when he doesn't get his way. He really needed a defeat in some hopeless Labour stronghold as part of his preparation to become an MP.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Rishi does a decent line in pathetic childishness when he doesn't get his way. He really needed a defeat in some hopeless Labour stronghold as part of his preparation to become an MP.
I agree with Sunak from what I can see here. If the only reason for initiating the talks is because Case is going to be away for medical reasons then why do it? The civil service is a machine not an individual. And as Gordon Brown found out once speculation about an election begins it is very difficult to stop.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
It's the "sleeping in the spare bedroom" scenario from yesterday's conversation, isn't it? Once things have got even that uncertain, the odds aren't good.
(Do I need to find the Daily Mail's THE GREAT DON'T KNOW FACTOR front page from May '97 again?)
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Given Lord Cameron's "issues" with Greensill, it was inappropriate to bring him back. I would have been much happier if, for example, William Hague was returned to the cabinet.
Really? William Hague who boasted in 2012 that "President Assad's days are numbered" ?
William Hague is arguably the most overrated Conservative politician. He was wrong about almost everything but he's got a deep voice, a sense of humour and has been around almost forever, which makes him an elder statesman and party grandee.
It's strange how radically peoples perceptions of others vary (independently of political stuff). I rather like Hague, but you clearly don't. Ed Davey cropped up, I think this morning. I think he's totally useless and just don't like him, and yet he seems to have his fans.
No, I like Hague, and could listen to him all day; I just don't rate him very highly.
Meanwhile, Ireland’s new Hate Speech laws are quite mind-blowingly Orwellian
“People don’t realise how extreme Ireland’s hate speech bill is. Up to 12 months in prison for refusing to give password to your devices if suspected of committing hate speech. 12 months for refusing to allow the State read messages between you and your spouse. It’s authoritarian.”
People like Ruth Dudley Edwards, and Eoghan Harris have been extremely critical.
The Irish Establishment has now entered the "You have to destroy democracy / free speech to protect democracy / free speech" mindset. It will only end one way and what makes their attitude even more mind-numbingly dumb is that their Police are unarmed / govern by consent and the Irish Army will in no way intervene.
The irony of ironies if they end up calling in the UK for help....
It will only end way? Yes. The bill will pass with some amendments, I imagine. People are so skittish (!) on here sometimes.
Mmmm, it is a bill with which you have sympathy therefore it is "skittish" to get worried about it.
I meant all this "only end one way" and "destroy free speech and democracy" sort of thing. I get the passion, and that's fine, but if you use up that type of language on something like this you'll have nowhere to go (linguistically) if god forbid we do have to confront a serious threat to freedom and democracy here in the UK or Ireland.
Would you not describe a "you must give us all yoir passwords if we suspect you of wrongspeak" bill as a serious threat to freedom in Ireland?
It is a serious threat to free speech and free thought and likely in breach of the ECHR. It is not at all surprising in a country like Ireland which has absorbed the totalitarian tendencies of the Irish Catholic Church and is now using them to achieve exactly what the Irish Catholic Church achieved while it was in control - silence about anything it did not like and the shunning and departure of anyone who tried to speak freely about what was going on.
See, for instance, the treatment of John McGahern, a teacher forced out of his job after publishing his first novels about the dark underbelly of Irish family life - violence and silence. He had to leave the country.
It is precisely this which allowed the abuse of children, the Magdalene laundries, and so on to continue for so long. It did not suit those in power to have these things spoken about and so every effort was made to stop anyone doing so.
This Bill seeks to achieve much the same. It is dressed up in the language of politeness and kindness and preventing discomfort and making people feel insecure. But the result is the same. Under such a bill anyone telling the truth about the Christian Brothers' violent abuse of children could have been prosecuted for making priests feel "discomfort" and "insecure" and classed as "hate".
Ireland's political class has always been self-interested and corrupt. But it now seems to have become remarkably stupid as well.
Edited: I have a lot on but happy to do a header on this if there's interest.
Sinn Fein, like the Scientologists, endlessly litigate against those who criticise them. They would use this legislation to the max.
Might there be some skeletons in the cupboard that would explain such defensiveness?
Off topic, but good news: A little Navajo boy, Hataałii Tiisyatonii “HT” Begay, has been cured of a rare genetic disease:
"HT was born with a form of severe combined immunodeficiency, or SCID, which meant he had virtually no immune defenses. About 70 children are born with SCID each year in the United States and Canada, though only two or three will have the same type as HT. Without treatment, children with SCID typically die in the first two years of life. . . . Two and a half months later, at the University of California at San Francisco Benioff Children’s Hospital, HT became the first person in the world to receive an experimental gene therapy designed to rebuild his immune system, cell by cell."
He was the first, but 12 other infants have now received the same treatment.
(SCID is more common among Navajo (about 1 in 200) than among the general population (about 1 in 58,000).)
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
It's the "sleeping in the spare bedroom" scenario from yesterday's conversation, isn't it? Once things have got even that uncertain, the odds aren't good.
(Do I need to find the Daily Mail's THE GREAT DON'T KNOW FACTOR front page from May '97 again?)
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Rishi does a decent line in pathetic childishness when he doesn't get his way. He really needed a defeat in some hopeless Labour stronghold as part of his preparation to become an MP.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Rishi does a decent line in pathetic childishness when he doesn't get his way. He really needed a defeat in some hopeless Labour stronghold as part of his preparation to become an MP.
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Rishi does a decent line in pathetic childishness when he doesn't get his way. He really needed a defeat in some hopeless Labour stronghold as part of his preparation to become an MP.
I agree with Sunak from what I can see here. If the only reason for initiating the talks is because Case is going to be away for medical reasons then why do it? The civil service is a machine not an individual. And as Gordon Brown found out once speculation about an election begins it is very difficult to stop.
We're probably somewhere between five and fourteen months from the next election. There isn't a hard rule about when these conversations should start, but there's decent precedent for "about a year" being a reasonable time to allow the opposition to temper their plans with realism and the Civil Service to start thinking how a new government's vision might be put into practice;
Refusing such confidential coversations does seem a bit like Rishi putting his tiny fingers into his tiny ears and saying "nah nah nah, I can't hear the polls".
Interesting discussions on medical forums about the new government pay offer to Consultants. A ballot on it may be to reject, which probably means strikes until the election. It is hard to judge how representative clicktivists are.
I think it points to a May election though, with the money only being paid in April, backdated to 1 Jan.
This puts most of the financial hit to the NHS budget into another government. If Tory, then a mandate to fight on, if Labour an inheritance of financially scorched earth.
Robert Reich @RBReich · 16m It's no longer simply "Democrats vs. Republicans."
We've been pulled into a struggle between democracy and fascism, between freedom and strongman tyranny.
The 2024 general election is less than a year away. Know the stakes.
===
First stop Iowa. Just over a month.
It isn't, even if Trump wins again he isn't going to be a dictator unless the army back him and they didn't even support his Capitol Hill attempted 'coup' when he was still President in Jan 2021
He really is.
Even if he stands and loses, we must expect a second Jan 6th attempt to block the duly elected President taking office. After all, he will have done it once without any effective sanction. Even though the Colorado court found him guilty of insurrection, it shied away from blocking him on the ballot for some frankly bizarre reasons.
If he wins I could imagine a few different equally problematic scenarios.
1. He goes about dismantling the apparatus of democracy to ensure he wins the following election, and succeeds 2. He tries the above but is blocked by Supreme Court or state courts (seems most likely) leading to a showdown and violence or some sort of state by state break up 3. He tries the above, gets it through a cowed SCOTUS and then the “deep state” steps in to stop it, essentially an establishment coup 4. He does things more under the radar, attempts to steal the following election, and we have rioting and colour revolution style goings on 5. He wins this time but Democrats don’t believe / accept it because of alleged irregularities. A reverse version of 2016. Rioting etc.
Doesn't the 22nd Amendment stand in the way of 1.?
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Rishi does a decent line in pathetic childishness when he doesn't get his way. He really needed a defeat in some hopeless Labour stronghold as part of his preparation to become an MP.
I agree with Sunak from what I can see here. If the only reason for initiating the talks is because Case is going to be away for medical reasons then why do it? The civil service is a machine not an individual. And as Gordon Brown found out once speculation about an election begins it is very difficult to stop.
We're probably somewhere between five and fourteen months from the next election. There isn't a hard rule about when these conversations should start, but there's decent precedent for "about a year" being a reasonable time to allow the opposition to temper their plans with realism and the Civil Service to start thinking how a new government's vision might be put into practice;
Refusing such confidential coversations does seem a bit like Rishi putting his tiny fingers into his tiny ears and saying "nah nah nah, I can't hear the polls".
I suggested last week that the first thing any Labour Chancellor will have to do is to reverse the NI tax reduction and I things like this will allow Labour to turn round and say things like this were based on dodgy deals....
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Rishi does a decent line in pathetic childishness when he doesn't get his way. He really needed a defeat in some hopeless Labour stronghold as part of his preparation to become an MP.
I imagine the whole Sue Gray saga probably not helped with the initiating talks between civil service and Labour.
It's a bit of a Trump-like tantrum to refuse a smoth transition. If it is custom and practice before an election to give some Civil Service advice to oppositions, then that should continue. It is part of democracy.
Robert Reich @RBReich · 16m It's no longer simply "Democrats vs. Republicans."
We've been pulled into a struggle between democracy and fascism, between freedom and strongman tyranny.
The 2024 general election is less than a year away. Know the stakes.
===
First stop Iowa. Just over a month.
It isn't, even if Trump wins again he isn't going to be a dictator unless the army back him and they didn't even support his Capitol Hill attempted 'coup' when he was still President in Jan 2021
He really is.
Even if he stands and loses, we must expect a second Jan 6th attempt to block the duly elected President taking office. After all, he will have done it once without any effective sanction. Even though the Colorado court found him guilty of insurrection, it shied away from blocking him on the ballot for some frankly bizarre reasons.
Anyway, Liz Truss's journey is complete. From a Lib Dem teenager she calls it for Trump.
From the little I know about David Cameron, I think I would rather like him as a neighbor. But I think his policies in Libya was a serious failure.
(In the US, I prefer secretaries of state who have some direct experience with evil, Kissinger, for example.)
Perhaps you're the posh sort but the thought of having David Cameron as a neighbour has never really occurred to me.
I hoped his appointment as foreign secretary, whilst leftfield*, might be of benefit given his high profile and knowledge of people around the world. That he might bang a few heads together in Washington and Europe, particularly with regards to Ukraine. So far he doesn't seem to have made a splash or seem to have come in with a clear idea of what he wants to do. Perhaps Sunak just saw it as a way to avoid putting a potential rival in a great office of state.
I imagine the whole Sue Gray saga probably not helped with the initiating talks between civil service and Labour.
It's a bit of a Trump-like tantrum to refuse a smoth transition. If it is custom and practice before an election to give some Civil Service advice to oppositions, then that should continue. It is part of democracy.
Or David Cameron was even worse....It appears that 2015, it was only 6 months.
In April 2014, it became known that the Prime Minister had written to the Leader of the Opposition to inform him that pre-election contacts between the opposition and the Civil Service would be authorised from October 2014, 6 months prior to the May 2015 general election.
--
So it doesn't appear we have had this for at least the past 15 years.
It would seem sensible to me to have some sort of rule that when it gets to 18 months to the latest possible date for a GE you have to start this process.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
If there was any swingback in 2010 it occurred at least 3 months before the election. Polling average during the run up to the election consistently showed a 7% average Con lead.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
If there was any swingback in 2010 it occurred at least 3 months before the election. Polling average during the run up to the election consistently showed a 7% average Con lead.
That's not correct. Early 2009, Labour were regularly in the 20's, sometimes as low as 20%. Regularly very large leads to the Tories.
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Rishi does a decent line in pathetic childishness when he doesn't get his way. He really needed a defeat in some hopeless Labour stronghold as part of his preparation to become an MP.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
Were they utter bollocks? Other than maybe some of the ones showing May with early Blair popularity. Labour got resoundingly hammered in the locals in 2017 in a way that looked to point to a landslide defeat. But the polls then narrowed (and some pollsters almost didn't believe what they were being told), because there was a lot in flux as old loyalties died and new ones formed.
Labour's leader was very unpopular with even many of its own voters in April 2017 but was still quite fresh and new - and so lots hadn't fully made their minds up. His approval ratings going to merely 'quite bad' from 'disastrous' brought some Lab voters home. As did the Brexit divides. Add in the atrocious Tory campaign and residual Labour loyalty and you got that result when a couple of months earlier Lab really were in dire straits.
There were arguably similar effects in both 2017 and 19 - the Labour vote share went up from around the low to mid 20s to the low 30s. Just it was far less pronounced in 2019 as Boris was a stronger campaigner with a more solid message on Brexit (for all his many other appalling flaws). While the liberal left/Remain side of things was much more divided about both Corbyn and what to do about Brexit. In a way that meant only some of those voters 'came home' to counteract the Tories uniting both Brexit voters and their own Remainers for whom a Corbyn government was scarier than Brexit.
When you learnt about Dresden did you cry for the Hitler Youth brigade there?
You do make some absurd mitigations for Bibi's razing of Gaza.
Now I have no problem with Bibi crushing Hamas, but the reluctance to hurl the leaders from Doha condominium penthouses whilst carpet bombing children seems to have the eradication programme tactics the wrong way around.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
If there was any swingback in 2010 it occurred at least 3 months before the election. Polling average during the run up to the election consistently showed a 7% average Con lead.
That's not correct. 12 months prior to election in 2009, Labour were regularly in the 20's, sometimes as low as 20%. Regularly very large leads.
Yes but at least 3 months before the election. Surely 'swingback' as a feature of polling models is meant to factor in a mooted last minute (or last few days) swing back to the incumbents which even the last polls of the campaign miss?
What you're talking about is just the polls detecting a move. It makes no sense for them to build 'swingback' into their models if they pick it up by polling.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
Were they utter bollocks? Other than maybe some of the ones showing May with early Blair popularity. Labour got resoundingly hammered in the locals in 2017 in a way that looked to point to a landslide defeat. But the polls then narrowed (and some pollsters almost didn't believe what they were being told), because there was a lot in flux as old loyalties died and new ones formed.
Labour's leader was very unpopular with even many of its own voters in April 2017 but was still quite fresh and new - and so lots hadn't fully made their minds up. His approval ratings going to merely 'quite bad' from 'disastrous' brought some Lab voters home. As did the Brexit divides. Add in the atrocious Tory campaign and residual Labour loyalty and you got that result when a couple of months earlier Lab really were in dire straits.
There were arguably similar effects in both 2017 and 19 - the Labour vote share went up from around the low to mid 20s to the low 30s. Just it was far less pronounced in 2019 as Boris was a stronger campaigner with a more solid message on Brexit (for all his many other appalling flaws). While the liberal left/Remain side of things was much more divided about both Corbyn and what to do about Brexit. In a way that meant only some of those voters 'came home' to counteract the Tories uniting both Brexit voters and their own Remainers for whom a Corbyn government was scarier than Brexit.
Well the polling companies themselves and parliament did reviews into how bad the polling was for 2017 due to it seen as being a massive failure.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
If there was any swingback in 2010 it occurred at least 3 months before the election. Polling average during the run up to the election consistently showed a 7% average Con lead.
That's not correct. 12 months prior to election in 2009, Labour were regularly in the 20's, sometimes as low as 20%. Regularly very large leads.
Yes but at least 3 months before the election. Surely 'swingback' as a feature of polling models is meant to factor in a mooted last minute (or last few days) swing back to the incumbents which even the last polls of the campaign miss?
What you're talking about is just the polls detecting a move. It makes no sense for them to build 'swingback' into their models if they pick it up by polling.
Rod's theory was as you got closer to GE it focused people's mind more and those unknown or soft we are voting for the opposition as a protest start to shift back to the government of the day.
I am not saying the polling companies should model this 12 months out, but Foxy's claim was significant proportion of the don't knows end up going to opposition based up on US study that 80% broke for the opposition.
That is at odds with Rod's theory (and one that made some of us a lot of money in two separate GE elections).
When you learnt about Dresden did you cry for the Hitler Youth brigade there?
You do make some absurd mitigations for Bibi's razing of Gaza.
Now I have no problem with Bibi crushing Hamas, but the reluctance to hurl the leaders from Doha condominium penthouses whilst carpet bombing children seems to have the eradication programme tactics the wrong way around.
Fuck off with your Magic Carpet bombing that only kills women and children
If Israel wanted to "carpet bomb" Gaza, every Gazan would have been dead a month ago
Israel is targeting Hamas and only Hamas apologists deny it
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Sunak may have other news to report soon. The rumours around an imminent return of the NI Assembly persist. I've heard about some of the wheel greasing stuff today that is new to me so clearly someone is trying. In this town, however, you just never know.
Should this come off, thanks taxpayers of Southern England. The local politicians will create another crisis in a few years to get some more bonus cash.
If you’re Sunak you say “I met the Greek PM, and politely told him the Elgin Marbles aren’t going anywhere”. That’s it. You look statesmanlike and firm. Rather than throw your toys about and make Keir Starmer look like the only grown-up.
Mr Sunak surely cannot want Mr Cameron's expertise on foreign policy. His major achievement in that field was to destroy Libya, replacing the despot Gaddafi with wild, burning chaos. This one action triggered the giant explosion in human trafficking across the Mediterranean which has utterly transformed Europe and European politics for the worse. He also supported the failed attempt to overthrow the nasty Syrian dictator, Bashar Assad, supposedly in the name of democracy and freedom.
The alternative in Libya was simply to permit a bloodbath, which would have resulted in ... a vast wave of refugees.
The ruin of Syria is entirely upon Assad's shoulders, and those of IS.
Inevitably, he blames us for provoking Putin. It's all very much "The big boy made me do it."
Which Syria would you prefer to take your family and live in, one controlled by evil dictator Bashar Assad, or one controlled by the burgeoning Islamic democracy that we tried to replace him with? Two answers on offer: one of which would reveal your pronouncements on Syria to be hypocritical specious bilge, and one of which would be an outright lie.
In a smaller, adjacent, shrub-hemmed field, Corporal Dura_Ace was supervising, mostly, as the Arab prisoner covered the British bodies with rocks gathered at the remains of the stone fence surrounding the Hamas stronghold that had been taken out by a Laser-Guided Bomb just days before.
Dura_Ace and the prisoner had potato-sack hauled the nine bodies here - the ambushed SAS patrol and poor old SeanT - and it was a hard, grisly, thankless task.
Dura_Ace had seen it that SeanT was taken care of first, and now all but two of the fallen SAS personnel had been covered with the stones, the Arab's breath heaving with toil and fear, his boyish face blood-streaked, his hands stained red. The corporal was marking each temporary, above-ground grave with a machine gun, alerting the burial squads to these bodies. Now and then the Arab's eyes would meet Dura_Ace's cold gaze, and the prisoner would work harder, even more industriously covering up the carnage he'd help create.
Finally Dura_Ace told the prisoner to take a break, and they both sat on the ground. Dura_Ace lit up a cigarette, which he kept for himself, and then another which he immediately offered to the Arab, who had been watching hungrily.
'British cigarette,' the Arab said, puffing, grinning crazily, desperately. 'I like British... er... Grommit... er... Wrong trousers! Close Shave!'
Dura_Ace nodded, smiling, 'Yeah, that's right. Wallace and Grommit. A Grand Day out, The Wrong Trousers, and then A Close Shave.'
'Yah! Wallace and Grommit!'
They were still sitting when Captain Smithson came tromping into the field, followed by Sergeant Herdson, and the rest of the squad, what was left of it anyway: Blanche_Livermore, Bartholomew_Roberts, and Leon.
'Get him off his Arab arse,' Blanche snarled.
Dura_Ace rose, and the Arab mimicked him, pitching his cigarette. Captain Smithson went from grave to grave, removing ammo from the machine guns Dura_Ace had set there, deactivating the weapons. Sergeant Herdson followed, as if he were tidying up after the captain, gathering the extra ammo. Machine guns in hand, Bartholomew and Blanche and Leon moved slowly, ominously towards the prisoner, forming a loose semi-circle around him. The Arab took anxious notice of this, and went back to stacking rocks atop the body, as if getting the corpses covered would make his problem go away.
He muttered something in Arabic, nodding to the rock-pile graves, still working feverishly, proving his worth, his obedience. He repeated the muttering.
'He says he's not finished yet,' Dura_Ace said.
'That's what he thinks,' Blanche said, barely concealing their hatred. 'You're finished, alright, Rag-head!'
Summoning all their strength, Blanche grabbed the prisoner by his camouflage shirt, and Leon joined in. They dragged him from the stony grave, the latest rock slipping from his fingers, his face contorted with fear as he cried out in Arabic.
And the Arab suddenly pulled away from his captors, scooping up the rock he dropped, and hastily returned to covering up the corpses.
The sound of Bartholomew racking his machine gun off safety froze the prisoner, and he carefully got to his feet and turned to face them.
'Please,' he said in English, pleadingly. 'I like Israel!' His accent was thick, almost stereotypically Middle Eastern, his teeth bared in a miserable, desperate excuse for a smile. 'How do you do? Nice to meet you! Do you have the time?'
Leon racked his machine gun off safety. The Arab began to laugh, softly, hysterically. Tears were welling as he said, 'Gal Gadot! What a dish! Dana International? Nice gams!' And the prisoner lifted hisslacks to the knees, laughing.
Blanche racked their machine gun off safety. The Arab stood straight now, his legs still exposed. He started singing part of the Israeli national anthem, 'Hatikvah...' However, that was all he knew; he kept singing the word again and again. 'Hatikvah... Hatikvah....'
The three privates were standing in firing-squad fashion now, facing the prisoner. Sickened, Dura_Ace looked away. Smithson was still dismantling machine guns, Herdson gathering ammo, as if completely unaware, or anyway unconcerned, about what was happening. The young prisoner finally played his trump card:
'Fuck Hamas!' he glanced first at Dura_Ace, then at the privates. 'Fuck Hamas!'
'Fuck you!' Bartholomew said. The prisoner lurched for Dura_Ace, grabbing his arm, and spewed a terrified stream of Arabic at the corporal.
Dura_Ace called to Smithson, 'Sir, he says he's sorry about SeanT. I don't think he was the gunner, sir!'
'Tell him 'sorry' don't cut the mustard,' Leon said, the big machine gun loose and deadly in the former flint-knapper's hands. 'Tell him my piles bleed for him.'
'Tell him...,' Smithson finally said, 'the war's over for him.' The squad members were nodding, Leon saying, 'Fuckin' 'ell,' and Smithson was dropping the last of the disarmed machine guns down and striding over to the Arab. A handkerchief came from one of the captain's pockets and he swiftly tied it around the Arab's head, in blindfold fashion.
'Sir,' Dura_Ace said softly but urgently, 'this isn't right.'
Smithson knew that Dura_Ace had very pro-Arab sympathies before the Braverman government introduced the draft in preparation for this land war in support of Israel, in fact he was only drafted back into the military because of his verbal Arabic skills, but the captain replied without umbrage.
'Just tell him, corporal. Tell him what I just said.'
When you learnt about Dresden did you cry for the Hitler Youth brigade there?
You do make some absurd mitigations for Bibi's razing of Gaza.
Now I have no problem with Bibi crushing Hamas, but the reluctance to hurl the leaders from Doha condominium penthouses whilst carpet bombing children seems to have the eradication programme tactics the wrong way around.
Of all the incredibly moronic things you've said on here about this conflict, the implication that Netanyahu has the option of taking out the Hamas leaders in Doha and is actively choosing not to, is one of them.
If the international community wants to help stop the conflict in Gaza, it can start by chopping off the snake's head and bearing the consequences.
Nodding, Dura_Ace then whispered to the Arab. Smithson spun the prisoner around, so that his back was towards the squad. Resigned to whatever Smithson's order might be, Herdson reluctantly fell in line with the privates and racked his weapon off safety. The prisoner jumped. Smithson looked at his squad - Leon's eyes were glittering, Bartholomew's were hooded with a hunter's nonchalance, Blanche's were as dead as the stones covering the corpses.
Then Smithson said to Dura_Ace, 'Tell him to march two hundred paces and wait until he can't hear us anymore. Then he's to surrender himself to the first NATO patrol he runs into.'
'What?' Bartholomew said, shaking his head as if his ears were lying to him. 'Wait a goddam minute...'
'Yes, sir,' Dura_Ace said, relieved, but careful not to smile. And to the young Arab he repeated Smithson's order in Arabic. Then the captain checked the blindfold, snugging the knot tight, then patted the Arab twice on the shoulder, signalling him to take off, which he did.
'Close shave,' the Arab smiled, and said something like farewell in the vernacular.
Dura_Ace finally allowed himself a smile. The former prisoner's erstwhile captors watched him disappear into the distance, singing what sounded like, 'It's coming home, it's coming home!' until he was too far away for them to hear anything.
When you learnt about Dresden did you cry for the Hitler Youth brigade there?
You do make some absurd mitigations for Bibi's razing of Gaza.
Now I have no problem with Bibi crushing Hamas, but the reluctance to hurl the leaders from Doha condominium penthouses whilst carpet bombing children seems to have the eradication programme tactics the wrong way around.
Of all the incredibly moronic things you've said on here about this conflict, the implication that Netanyahu has the option of taking out the Hamas leaders in Doha and is actively choosing not to, is one of them.
If the international community wants to help stop the conflict in Gaza, it can start by chopping off the snake's head and bearing the consequences.
Well, they killed the head of IQB while he was in Dubai in 2010 so it's not like it's impossible.
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Rishi does a decent line in pathetic childishness when he doesn't get his way. He really needed a defeat in some hopeless Labour stronghold as part of his preparation to become an MP.
I read the BBC article re Sunak and the Greek PM and was dismayed - how pathetic is RS to cancel a meeting with a NATO ally over the Marbles? Every one knows the game - the Greeks say they want them and we say no.
RS’ problem is simple - he has never been in a job where he has been held to account. At Goldmans, he would have been one of the golden boys. At TCI, being a hedge fund manager, the banks’ analysts and sales people would have been licking his balls telling him how great he was. He was parachuted into Richmond. He has never had a rough department role - Chief Sec to the Treasury then C o E then PM.
And the Arab suddenly pulled away from his captors, scooping up the rock he dropped, and hastily returned to covering up the corpses.
The sound of Bartholomew racking his machine gun off safety froze the prisoner, and he carefully got to his feet and turned to face them.
'Please,' he said in English, pleadingly. 'I like Israel!' His accent was thick, almost stereotypically Middle Eastern, his teeth bared in a miserable, desperate excuse for a smile. 'How do you do? Nice to meet you! Do you have the time?'
Leon racked his machine gun off safety. The Arab began to laugh, softly, hysterically. Tears were welling as he said, 'Gal Gadot! What a dish! Dana International? Nice gams!' And the prisoner lifted hisslacks to the knees, laughing.
Blanche racked their machine gun off safety. The Arab stood straight now, his legs still exposed. He started singing part of the Israeli national anthem, 'Hatikvah...' However, that was all he knew; he kept singing the word again and again. 'Hatikvah... Hatikvah....'
The three privates were standing in firing-squad fashion now, facing the prisoner. Sickened, Dura_Ace looked away. Smithson was still dismantling machine guns, Herdson gathering ammo, as if completely unaware, or anyway unconcerned, about what was happening. The young prisoner finally played his trump card:
'Fuck Hamas!' he glanced first at Dura_Ace, then at the privates. 'Fuck Hamas!'
'Fuck you!' Bartholomew said. The prisoner lurched for Dura_Ace, grabbing his arm, and spewed a terrified stream of Arabic at the corporal.
Dura_Ace called to Smithson, 'Sir, he says he's sorry about SeanT. I don't think he was the gunner, sir!'
'Tell him 'sorry' don't cut the mustard,' Leon said, the big machine gun loose and deadly in the former flint-knapper's hands. 'Tell him my piles bleed for him.'
'Tell him...,' Smithson finally said, 'the war's over for him.' The squad members were nodding, Leon saying, 'Fuckin' 'ell,' and Smithson was dropping the last of the disarmed machine guns down and striding over to the Arab. A handkerchief came from one of the captain's pockets and he swiftly tied it around the Arab's head, in blindfold fashion.
'Sir,' Dura_Ace said softly but urgently, 'this isn't right.'
Smithson knew that Dura_Ace had very pro-Arab sympathies before the Braverman government introduced the draft in preparation for this land war in support of Israel, in fact he was only drafted back into the military because of his verbal Arabic skills, but the captain replied without umbrage.
'Just tell him, corporal. Tell him what I just said.'
[continued....]
I missed all of this. Who is the Arab - @Foxy or @Kinablu?
Sunil's literary flourish including the shared awareness of Wallace & Gromit reminds of the story of Nick Hancock meeting Iranian officials in order to get permissions to film the Iranian football team at the 1998 World Cup.
It involved Mr Bean and is a story worth searching out.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
If there was any swingback in 2010 it occurred at least 3 months before the election. Polling average during the run up to the election consistently showed a 7% average Con lead.
That's not correct. 12 months prior to election in 2009, Labour were regularly in the 20's, sometimes as low as 20%. Regularly very large leads.
Yes but at least 3 months before the election. Surely 'swingback' as a feature of polling models is meant to factor in a mooted last minute (or last few days) swing back to the incumbents which even the last polls of the campaign miss?
What you're talking about is just the polls detecting a move. It makes no sense for them to build 'swingback' into their models if they pick it up by polling.
Rod's theory was as you got closer to GE it focused people's mind more and those unknown or soft we are voting for the opposition as a protest start to shift back to the government of the day.
I am not saying the polling companies should model this 12 months out, but Foxy's claim was significant proportion of the don't knows end up going to opposition based up on US study that 80% broke for the opposition.
That is at odds with Rod's theory (and one that made some of us a lot of money in two separate GE elections).
Ok, we're probably slightly at cross purposes then.
Still, this has made me eyeball the polling since 1979 for a swing back towards the incumbent in the last 6-12 months before the election.
Here's my unscientific, simplified conclusion (where I say 'swing' below I really mean change in lead - the real swing is half that of course):
1979 10% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months (Winter of Discontent). 1983 5% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months. 1987 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 1992 10% swing to the incumbents (C) 15-12 months out, then broadly level. (But all the polls underestimated C by 5-10%) 1997 10% swing to the incumbents (C) from 15 months out. 2001 5% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 12 months (ignoring the brief fuel prices protest polling blip 6 months out). 2005 5% swing to the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months. (But polls overestimated L by 5-10%) 2010 10% swing to the incumbents (L) in the months 12-3 then broadly unchanged until the GE. 2015 10% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 2017 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the months 12-1 then 15% swing away in the GE campaign. Net neutral. 2019 10-15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months (after change of leader).
So, after all that, yes there's usually but not always a swing to the incumbents in the last 12 months, boosting their lead or reducing the opposition's lead by an average of 10%.
Greek PM accuses Sunak of running scared in new Marbles row: “Anyone who believes in the correctness and justice of their positions is never afraid of opposing arguments.”
Labour: “If the Prime Minister isn’t able to meet with a European ally with whom Britain has important economic ties, this is further proof he isn’t able to provide the serious economic leadership our country requires. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party stands ready”. It’s a gift.
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Rishi does a decent line in pathetic childishness when he doesn't get his way. He really needed a defeat in some hopeless Labour stronghold as part of his preparation to become an MP.
I read the BBC article re Sunak and the Greek PM and was dismayed - how pathetic is RS to cancel a meeting with a NATO ally over the Marbles? Every one knows the game - the Greeks say they want them and we say no.
RS’ problem is simple - he has never been in a job where he has been held to account. At Goldmans, he would have been one of the golden boys. At TCI, being a hedge fund manager, the banks’ analysts and sales people would have been licking his balls telling him how great he was. He was parachuted into Richmond. He has never had a rough department role - Chief Sec to the Treasury then C o E then PM.
Cameron should offer the marbles to Greece on condition they take Sunak as well.
When you learnt about Dresden did you cry for the Hitler Youth brigade there?
You do make some absurd mitigations for Bibi's razing of Gaza.
Now I have no problem with Bibi crushing Hamas, but the reluctance to hurl the leaders from Doha condominium penthouses whilst carpet bombing children seems to have the eradication programme tactics the wrong way around.
Of all the incredibly moronic things you've said on here about this conflict, the implication that Netanyahu has the option of taking out the Hamas leaders in Doha and is actively choosing not to, is one of them.
If the international community wants to help stop the conflict in Gaza, it can start by chopping off the snake's head and bearing the consequences.
Well, they killed the head of IQB while he was in Dubai in 2010 so it's not like it's impossible.
Mossad do have form for bumping people off abroad who they don't like.
Nodding, Dura_Ace then whispered to the Arab. Smithson spun the prisoner around, so that his back was towards the squad. Resigned to whatever Smithson's order might be, Herdson reluctantly fell in line with the privates and racked his weapon off safety. The prisoner jumped. Smithson looked at his squad - Leon's eyes were glittering, Bartholomew's were hooded with a hunter's nonchalance, Blanche's were as dead as the stones covering the corpses.
Then Smithson said to Dura_Ace, 'Tell him to march two hundred paces and wait until he can't hear us anymore. Then he's to surrender himself to the first NATO patrol he runs into.'
'What?' Bartholomew said, shaking his head as if his ears were lying to him. 'Wait a goddam minute...'
'Yes, sir,' Dura_Ace said, relieved, but careful not to smile. And to the young Arab he repeated Smithson's order in Arabic. Then the captain checked the blindfold, snugging the knot tight, then patted the Arab twice on the shoulder, signalling him to take off, which he did.
'Close shave,' the Arab smiled, and said something like farewell in the vernacular.
Dura_Ace finally allowed himself a smile. The former prisoner's erstwhile captors watched him disappear into the distance, singing what sounded like, 'It's coming home, it's coming home!' until he was too far away for them to hear anything.
Is there an alternative ending where all the comrades turn and shoot Leon?
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Rishi does a decent line in pathetic childishness when he doesn't get his way. He really needed a defeat in some hopeless Labour stronghold as part of his preparation to become an MP.
I read the BBC article re Sunak and the Greek PM and was dismayed - how pathetic is RS to cancel a meeting with a NATO ally over the Marbles? Every one knows the game - the Greeks say they want them and we say no.
RS’ problem is simple - he has never been in a job where he has been held to account. At Goldmans, he would have been one of the golden boys. At TCI, being a hedge fund manager, the banks’ analysts and sales people would have been licking his balls telling him how great he was. He was parachuted into Richmond. He has never had a rough department role - Chief Sec to the Treasury then C o E then PM.
Cameron should offer the marbles to Greece on condition they take Sunak as well.
If they take back that cretin Varoufakis permanently too so we don't have to put up with his mindless witterings it's a deal. Though that may prove a sticking point given he's so loathed in Greece he had to run away to Germany to run for the European parliament.
Mr Sunak surely cannot want Mr Cameron's expertise on foreign policy. His major achievement in that field was to destroy Libya, replacing the despot Gaddafi with wild, burning chaos. This one action triggered the giant explosion in human trafficking across the Mediterranean which has utterly transformed Europe and European politics for the worse. He also supported the failed attempt to overthrow the nasty Syrian dictator, Bashar Assad, supposedly in the name of democracy and freedom.
The alternative in Libya was simply to permit a bloodbath, which would have resulted in ... a vast wave of refugees.
The ruin of Syria is entirely upon Assad's shoulders, and those of IS.
Inevitably, he blames us for provoking Putin. It's all very much "The big boy made me do it."
Which Syria would you prefer to take your family and live in, one controlled by evil dictator Bashar Assad, or one controlled by the burgeoning Islamic democracy that we tried to replace him with? Two answers on offer: one of which would reveal your pronouncements on Syria to be hypocritical specious bilge, and one of which would be an outright lie.
That’s like asking would I prefer to be burned at the stake or hanged, drawn, and quartered.
You’re missing the point (as does Hitchens).
Assad and IS are wholly responsible for Syria being a shithole. Cameron is not.
No sane person would wish to ruled by either Assad or IS.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
If there was any swingback in 2010 it occurred at least 3 months before the election. Polling average during the run up to the election consistently showed a 7% average Con lead.
That's not correct. 12 months prior to election in 2009, Labour were regularly in the 20's, sometimes as low as 20%. Regularly very large leads.
Yes but at least 3 months before the election. Surely 'swingback' as a feature of polling models is meant to factor in a mooted last minute (or last few days) swing back to the incumbents which even the last polls of the campaign miss?
What you're talking about is just the polls detecting a move. It makes no sense for them to build 'swingback' into their models if they pick it up by polling.
Rod's theory was as you got closer to GE it focused people's mind more and those unknown or soft we are voting for the opposition as a protest start to shift back to the government of the day.
I am not saying the polling companies should model this 12 months out, but Foxy's claim was significant proportion of the don't knows end up going to opposition based up on US study that 80% broke for the opposition.
That is at odds with Rod's theory (and one that made some of us a lot of money in two separate GE elections).
Ok, we're probably slightly at cross purposes then.
Still, this has made me eyeball the polling since 1979 for a swing back towards the incumbent in the last 6-12 months before the election.
Here's my unscientific, simplified conclusion (where I say 'swing' below I really mean change in lead - the real swing is half that of course):
1979 10% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months (Winter of Discontent). 1983 5% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months. 1987 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 1992 10% swing to the incumbents (C) 15-12 months out, then broadly level. (But all the polls underestimated C by 5-10%) 1997 10% swing to the incumbents (C) from 15 months out. 2001 5% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 12 months (ignoring the brief fuel prices protest polling blip 6 months out). 2005 5% swing to the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months. (But polls overestimated L by 5-10%) 2010 10% swing to the incumbents (L) in the months 12-3 then broadly unchanged until the GE. 2015 10% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 2017 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the months 12-1 then 15% swing away in the GE campaign. Net neutral. 2019 10-15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months (after change of leader).
So, after all that, yes there's usually but not always a swing to the incumbents in the last 12 months, boosting their lead or reducing the opposition's lead by an average of 10%.
Not enough for the Tories this time of course.
A reduction of c. 10% is what I would expect. Bringing us to a Labour lead of 9-10% on polling day. What that entails depends very much on 2 things. The distribution of those votes. I can't see UNS being of much relevance. And. Scotland. I suspect a Labour majority of 30 would be something both major Parties would take right now if offered it.
Labour: “If the Prime Minister isn’t able to meet with a European ally with whom Britain has important economic ties, this is further proof he isn’t able to provide the serious economic leadership our country requires. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party stands ready”. It’s a gift.
Labour: “If the Prime Minister isn’t able to meet with a European ally with whom Britain has important economic ties, this is further proof he isn’t able to provide the serious economic leadership our country requires. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party stands ready”. It’s a gift.
Does anyone *really* give a f*ck about the Elgin Marbles, in anything more than the gammony ‘getting one over Johnny Greek’ sense?
The BM has demonstrated that it is certainly not a safe place to store antiquities, and in any case they are incredibly dull sculptures that are bed-blocking much more interesting things that could take their place. Give them back and promote some of the truly amazing archaeology we have from this country instead.
As for the geopolitics of it, I’m sure we’re all delighted that somebody is finally standing up to the Greeks. Oh wait, it’s 2023 and the fag-end of the shittest British cabinet of all time, not the battle of fecking Corinth. It just looks petty and weird.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
If there was any swingback in 2010 it occurred at least 3 months before the election. Polling average during the run up to the election consistently showed a 7% average Con lead.
That's not correct. 12 months prior to election in 2009, Labour were regularly in the 20's, sometimes as low as 20%. Regularly very large leads.
Yes but at least 3 months before the election. Surely 'swingback' as a feature of polling models is meant to factor in a mooted last minute (or last few days) swing back to the incumbents which even the last polls of the campaign miss?
What you're talking about is just the polls detecting a move. It makes no sense for them to build 'swingback' into their models if they pick it up by polling.
Rod's theory was as you got closer to GE it focused people's mind more and those unknown or soft we are voting for the opposition as a protest start to shift back to the government of the day.
I am not saying the polling companies should model this 12 months out, but Foxy's claim was significant proportion of the don't knows end up going to opposition based up on US study that 80% broke for the opposition.
That is at odds with Rod's theory (and one that made some of us a lot of money in two separate GE elections).
Ok, we're probably slightly at cross purposes then.
Still, this has made me eyeball the polling since 1979 for a swing back towards the incumbent in the last 6-12 months before the election.
Here's my unscientific, simplified conclusion (where I say 'swing' below I really mean change in lead - the real swing is half that of course):
1979 10% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months (Winter of Discontent). 1983 5% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months. 1987 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 1992 10% swing to the incumbents (C) 15-12 months out, then broadly level. (But all the polls underestimated C by 5-10%) 1997 10% swing to the incumbents (C) from 15 months out. 2001 5% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 12 months (ignoring the brief fuel prices protest polling blip 6 months out). 2005 5% swing to the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months. (But polls overestimated L by 5-10%) 2010 10% swing to the incumbents (L) in the months 12-3 then broadly unchanged until the GE. 2015 10% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 2017 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the months 12-1 then 15% swing away in the GE campaign. Net neutral. 2019 10-15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months (after change of leader).
So, after all that, yes there's usually but not always a swing to the incumbents in the last 12 months, boosting their lead or reducing the opposition's lead by an average of 10%.
Not enough for the Tories this time of course.
A reduction of c. 10% is what I would expect. Bringing us to a Labour lead of 9-10% on polling day. What that entails depends very much on 2 things. The distribution of those votes. I can't see UNS being of much relevance. And. Scotland. I suspect a Labour majority of 30 would be something both major Parties would take right now if offered it.
LAB maj 30 taking into account the forthcoming SNP meltdown means CON 250. Some CON posters (me) would take that.
Redfield & Wilton has the 2019 Conservative vote splitting 51% Conservative, 16% Reform, 15% Labour and 12% Don’t Know.
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
Wonder what the split of "long time Conservative voters" to "didn't vote before 2016" is?
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
I came across an interesting article the other day, albeit rather old and from the USA, that suggested DK's break 80% against the incumbent. The reasoning being that being DK is not neutral, it is the incumbent that they are unconvinced by.
That doesn't seem to square with Rod Crosby's swingback theory.
Swingback didn't work in 2017. Patterns last. Until they don't.
Well the polling in 2017 was totally flawed, so not sure we can say too much about that. It is clear all that May has a lead in the polls of 99% was utter bollocks, even if she then did mess up the campaign.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
If there was any swingback in 2010 it occurred at least 3 months before the election. Polling average during the run up to the election consistently showed a 7% average Con lead.
That's not correct. 12 months prior to election in 2009, Labour were regularly in the 20's, sometimes as low as 20%. Regularly very large leads.
Yes but at least 3 months before the election. Surely 'swingback' as a feature of polling models is meant to factor in a mooted last minute (or last few days) swing back to the incumbents which even the last polls of the campaign miss?
What you're talking about is just the polls detecting a move. It makes no sense for them to build 'swingback' into their models if they pick it up by polling.
Rod's theory was as you got closer to GE it focused people's mind more and those unknown or soft we are voting for the opposition as a protest start to shift back to the government of the day.
I am not saying the polling companies should model this 12 months out, but Foxy's claim was significant proportion of the don't knows end up going to opposition based up on US study that 80% broke for the opposition.
That is at odds with Rod's theory (and one that made some of us a lot of money in two separate GE elections).
Ok, we're probably slightly at cross purposes then.
Still, this has made me eyeball the polling since 1979 for a swing back towards the incumbent in the last 6-12 months before the election.
Here's my unscientific, simplified conclusion (where I say 'swing' below I really mean change in lead - the real swing is half that of course):
1979 10% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months (Winter of Discontent). 1983 5% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months. 1987 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 1992 10% swing to the incumbents (C) 15-12 months out, then broadly level. (But all the polls underestimated C by 5-10%) 1997 10% swing to the incumbents (C) from 15 months out. 2001 5% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 12 months (ignoring the brief fuel prices protest polling blip 6 months out). 2005 5% swing to the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months. (But polls overestimated L by 5-10%) 2010 10% swing to the incumbents (L) in the months 12-3 then broadly unchanged until the GE. 2015 10% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months. 2017 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the months 12-1 then 15% swing away in the GE campaign. Net neutral. 2019 10-15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months (after change of leader).
So, after all that, yes there's usually but not always a swing to the incumbents in the last 12 months, boosting their lead or reducing the opposition's lead by an average of 10%.
Not enough for the Tories this time of course.
Sure, lots can change in the six months or year before an election, but when we look at the appalling figures for satisfaction with this government it doesn't look likely.
Perhaps an optimist would interpret the chart differently, its is all upside!
Comments
He would have likely become Conservative leader then, not IDS, probably gained enough seats as Howard did in 2005 to stay as leader given he was much younger than Howard and then been in prime position to be PM in 2010 and beat Brown, not Cameron
Two reasons for disputing the peaceful nature of Anglo Saxon activities: firstly the fact that the British language disappeared except for the periphery - which tends to suggest a degree of unwelcome dominance, and secondly the apparent disappearance of Christianity from the south east and east of Britain, being replaced by Germanic forms of religion. (The south west and west is of course a different story, where it never went away and was astonished to discover that Augustine was trying to convert the already long converted.)
As a group, this is 38% of all Don’t Knows with the next biggest group those who say they didn’t vote in December 2019 who are 31% of all Don’t Knows.
1. He goes about dismantling the apparatus of democracy to ensure he wins the following election, and succeeds
2. He tries the above but is blocked by Supreme Court or state courts (seems most likely) leading to a showdown and violence or some sort of state by state break up
3. He tries the above, gets it through a cowed SCOTUS and then the “deep state” steps in to stop it, essentially an establishment coup
4. He does things more under the radar, attempts to steal the following election, and we have rioting and colour revolution style goings on
5. He wins this time but Democrats don’t believe / accept it because of alleged irregularities. A reverse version of 2016. Rioting etc.
The first group might be easier to win back than the second.
Cancelling a meeting with the Greek PM over the Elgin Marbles . Surely you meet and air your views then . Sunak happy to piss off other world leaders but too frightened to annoy the right wing nutjobs in his party .
Sports Illustrated Published Articles by Fake, AI-Generated Writers
We asked them about it — and they deleted everything.
https://futurism.com/sports-illustrated-ai-generated-writers
Well he used to be a very naughty boy, regularly on the drugs and with prozzies, and an absolute knobhead causing issues. But to minimise damage to his reputation he had a hotline to New International celebrity department, staffed by none other than Andy Coulson. For years, he would ring up his mate Andy and say I am been caught being a naughty boy and somebody is trying to sell a story or I have fallen out with somebody and they are threatening to make me look bad, could you do damage control for me and spike the story with some positive spin. And for years, Andy did so.
Then new management came in to NOTW and said what's going on here then. Our brand is exposing wrong doing, not acting as PR for them. You are to stop this immediately, don't act as his PR agent, bloody bury him. Well Steve didn't take too kindly to this at all and has been on a mission ever since.
Exclusive from
@oliver_wright
Simon Case advised Rishi Sunak he should authorise pre-election talks between the civil service and Labour before taking a medical leave of absence
Sunak said to have rebuffed proposal from his cabinet secretary amid fears it would sent signal that an election is now imminent
Questions growing over whether Case will ever return to role
https://x.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1729127353534538150
It probably explains the high Reform number in this poll.
Nearly two thirds of the Reform vote in the poll are or were Conservatives in 2019 with only 20% coming from the old Brexit Party.
(Do I need to find the Daily Mail's THE GREAT DON'T KNOW FACTOR front page from May '97 again?)
(No)
So the UN is obliged to protect them
So the UN does the government of Palestine's job
So the UN works for Hamas
And the UN pay Hamas to do their job for them
And they do it fucking awfully
And the Hamas leaders are fucking billionaires
"HT was born with a form of severe combined immunodeficiency, or SCID, which meant he had virtually no immune defenses. About 70 children are born with SCID each year in the United States and Canada, though only two or three will have the same type as HT. Without treatment, children with SCID typically die in the first two years of life.
. . .
Two and a half months later, at the University of California at San Francisco Benioff Children’s Hospital, HT became the first person in the world to receive an experimental gene therapy designed to rebuild his immune system, cell by cell."
He was the first, but 12 other infants have now received the same treatment.
(SCID is more common among Navajo (about 1 in 200) than among the general population (about 1 in 58,000).)
No sign of an Autumn Statement poll bump for the Tories our new @moreincommon_ poll for @TimesRadio but instead a bump to Labour’s lead up to 16.
🌹 Labour 44% (+3)
🌳 Conservatives 28% (-1)
🔶 Liberal Democrat 10% (-3)
🟣 Reform UK 8% (+1)
💚 Greens 5% (-)
Dates - 24-27/11
https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1729211851505098862
How I love ambiguously written sentences.
Obviously a closer analogy would be 2010, when Brown was very unpopular, but there was swingback.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/comment/why-prime-minister-wrong-pre-election-contacts
Refusing such confidential coversations does seem a bit like Rishi putting his tiny fingers into his tiny ears and saying "nah nah nah, I can't hear the polls".
I think it points to a May election though, with the money only being paid in April, backdated to 1 Jan.
This puts most of the financial hit to the NHS budget into another government. If Tory, then a mandate to fight on, if Labour an inheritance of financially scorched earth.
(Seriously. There are no spare mental health beds. MH is Cinderella when things are going well, now it's worse than that.)
(Guardian)
I hoped his appointment as foreign secretary, whilst leftfield*, might be of benefit given his high profile and knowledge of people around the world. That he might bang a few heads together in Washington and Europe, particularly with regards to Ukraine. So far he doesn't seem to have made a splash or seem to have come in with a clear idea of what he wants to do. Perhaps Sunak just saw it as a way to avoid putting a potential rival in a great office of state.
*in the true meaning of the word.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gordon-brown-provokes-tory-anger-by-delaying-consent-for-civil-service-handover-talks-9l23tsqrz5w
Or David Cameron was even worse....It appears that 2015, it was only 6 months.
In April 2014, it became known that the Prime Minister had written to the Leader of the Opposition to inform him that pre-election contacts between the opposition and the Civil Service would be authorised from October 2014, 6 months prior to the May 2015 general election.
--
So it doesn't appear we have had this for at least the past 15 years.
It would seem sensible to me to have some sort of rule that when it gets to 18 months to the latest possible date for a GE you have to start this process.
And - of course - most of them managed to grow up and be perfectly normal, peaceable Germans.
How many UNRWA "refugees" weren't born where they live now?
Go on Owen! One more march should do it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election#2009
Then it started to come in steadily from July 2009.
How many of them don't want to murder Jews?
Labour's leader was very unpopular with even many of its own voters in April 2017 but was still quite fresh and new - and so lots hadn't fully made their minds up. His approval ratings going to merely 'quite bad' from 'disastrous' brought some Lab voters home. As did the Brexit divides. Add in the atrocious Tory campaign and residual Labour loyalty and you got that result when a couple of months earlier Lab really were in dire straits.
There were arguably similar effects in both 2017 and 19 - the Labour vote share went up from around the low to mid 20s to the low 30s. Just it was far less pronounced in 2019 as Boris was a stronger campaigner with a more solid message on Brexit (for all his many other appalling flaws). While the liberal left/Remain side of things was much more divided about both Corbyn and what to do about Brexit. In a way that meant only some of those voters 'came home' to counteract the Tories uniting both Brexit voters and their own Remainers for whom a Corbyn government was scarier than Brexit.
Now I have no problem with Bibi crushing Hamas, but the reluctance to hurl the leaders from Doha condominium penthouses whilst carpet bombing children seems to have the eradication programme tactics the wrong way around.
What you're talking about is just the polls detecting a move. It makes no sense for them to build 'swingback' into their models if they pick it up by polling.
I am not saying the polling companies should model this 12 months out, but Foxy's claim was significant proportion of the don't knows end up going to opposition based up on US study that 80% broke for the opposition.
That is at odds with Rod's theory (and one that made some of us a lot of money in two separate GE elections).
If Israel wanted to "carpet bomb" Gaza, every Gazan would have been dead a month ago
Israel is targeting Hamas and only Hamas apologists deny it
We have just upgraded our defence relations with Turkiye ...
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-turkiye-to-boost-stability-security-and-prosperity
We now find out if Lord Much-Binding-in-the-Marsh is good at soothing ruffled feathers - both theirs and presumably, ours.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEYVc8OAI-4
Should this come off, thanks taxpayers of Southern England. The local politicians will create another crisis in a few years to get some more bonus cash.
If you’re Sunak you say “I met the Greek PM, and politely told him the Elgin Marbles aren’t going anywhere”. That’s it. You look statesmanlike and firm. Rather than throw your toys about and make Keir Starmer look like the only grown-up.
Dura_Ace and the prisoner had potato-sack hauled the nine bodies here - the ambushed SAS patrol and poor old SeanT - and it was a hard, grisly, thankless task.
Dura_Ace had seen it that SeanT was taken care of first, and now all but two of the fallen SAS personnel had been covered with the stones, the Arab's breath heaving with toil and fear, his boyish face blood-streaked, his hands stained red. The corporal was marking each temporary, above-ground grave with a machine gun, alerting the burial squads to these bodies. Now and then the Arab's eyes would meet Dura_Ace's cold gaze, and the prisoner would work harder, even more industriously covering up the carnage he'd help create.
Finally Dura_Ace told the prisoner to take a break, and they both sat on the ground. Dura_Ace lit up a cigarette, which he kept for himself, and then another which he immediately offered to the Arab, who had been watching hungrily.
'British cigarette,' the Arab said, puffing, grinning crazily, desperately. 'I like British... er... Grommit... er... Wrong trousers! Close Shave!'
Dura_Ace nodded, smiling, 'Yeah, that's right. Wallace and Grommit. A Grand Day out, The Wrong Trousers, and then A Close Shave.'
'Yah! Wallace and Grommit!'
They were still sitting when Captain Smithson came tromping into the field, followed by Sergeant Herdson, and the rest of the squad, what was left of it anyway: Blanche_Livermore, Bartholomew_Roberts, and Leon.
'Get him off his Arab arse,' Blanche snarled.
Dura_Ace rose, and the Arab mimicked him, pitching his cigarette. Captain Smithson went from grave to grave, removing ammo from the machine guns Dura_Ace had set there, deactivating the weapons. Sergeant Herdson followed, as if he were tidying up after the captain, gathering the extra ammo. Machine guns in hand, Bartholomew and Blanche and Leon moved slowly, ominously towards the prisoner, forming a loose semi-circle around him. The Arab took anxious notice of this, and went back to stacking rocks atop the body, as if getting the corpses covered would make his problem go away.
He muttered something in Arabic, nodding to the rock-pile graves, still working feverishly, proving his worth, his obedience. He repeated the muttering.
'He says he's not finished yet,' Dura_Ace said.
'That's what he thinks,' Blanche said, barely concealing their hatred. 'You're finished, alright, Rag-head!'
Summoning all their strength, Blanche grabbed the prisoner by his camouflage shirt, and Leon joined in. They dragged him from the stony grave, the latest rock slipping from his fingers, his face contorted with fear as he cried out in Arabic.
[continued....]
And the Arab suddenly pulled away from his captors, scooping up
the rock he dropped, and hastily returned to covering up the corpses.
The sound of Bartholomew racking his machine gun off safety froze the prisoner, and he carefully got to his feet and turned to face them.
'Please,' he said in English, pleadingly. 'I like Israel!' His accent was thick, almost stereotypically Middle Eastern, his teeth bared in a miserable, desperate excuse for a smile. 'How do you do? Nice to meet you! Do you have the time?'
Leon racked his machine gun off safety. The Arab began to laugh, softly, hysterically. Tears were welling as he said, 'Gal Gadot! What a dish! Dana International? Nice gams!' And the prisoner lifted hisslacks to the knees, laughing.
Blanche racked their machine gun off safety. The Arab stood straight now, his legs still exposed. He started singing part of the Israeli national anthem, 'Hatikvah...' However, that was all he knew; he kept singing the word again and again. 'Hatikvah... Hatikvah....'
The three privates were standing in firing-squad fashion now, facing the prisoner. Sickened, Dura_Ace looked away. Smithson was still dismantling machine guns, Herdson gathering ammo, as if completely unaware, or anyway unconcerned, about what was happening. The young prisoner finally played his trump card:
'Fuck Hamas!' he glanced first at Dura_Ace, then at the privates. 'Fuck Hamas!'
'Fuck you!' Bartholomew said. The prisoner lurched for Dura_Ace, grabbing his arm, and spewed a terrified stream of Arabic at the corporal.
Dura_Ace called to Smithson, 'Sir, he says he's sorry about SeanT. I don't think he was the gunner, sir!'
'Tell him 'sorry' don't cut the mustard,' Leon said, the big machine gun loose and deadly in the former flint-knapper's hands. 'Tell him my piles bleed for him.'
'Tell him...,' Smithson finally said, 'the war's over for him.' The squad members were nodding, Leon saying, 'Fuckin' 'ell,' and Smithson was dropping the last of the disarmed machine guns down and striding over to the Arab. A handkerchief came from one of the captain's pockets and he swiftly tied it around the Arab's head, in blindfold fashion.
'Sir,' Dura_Ace said softly but urgently, 'this isn't right.'
Smithson knew that Dura_Ace had very pro-Arab sympathies before the Braverman government introduced the draft in preparation for this land war in support of Israel, in fact he was only drafted back into the military because of his verbal Arabic skills, but the captain replied without umbrage.
'Just tell him, corporal. Tell him what I just said.'
[continued....]
If the international community wants to help stop the conflict in Gaza, it can start by chopping off the snake's head and bearing the consequences.
Nodding, Dura_Ace then whispered to the Arab. Smithson spun the prisoner around, so that his back was towards the squad. Resigned to whatever Smithson's order might be, Herdson reluctantly fell in line with the privates and racked his weapon off safety. The prisoner jumped. Smithson looked at his squad - Leon's eyes were glittering, Bartholomew's were hooded with a hunter's nonchalance, Blanche's were as dead as the stones covering the corpses.
Then Smithson said to Dura_Ace, 'Tell him to march two hundred paces and wait until he can't hear us anymore. Then he's to surrender himself to the first NATO patrol he runs into.'
'What?' Bartholomew said, shaking his head as if his ears were lying to him. 'Wait a goddam minute...'
'Yes, sir,' Dura_Ace said, relieved, but careful not to smile. And to the young Arab he repeated Smithson's order in Arabic. Then the captain checked the blindfold, snugging the knot tight, then patted the Arab twice on the shoulder, signalling him to take off, which he did.
'Close shave,' the Arab smiled, and said something like farewell in the vernacular.
Dura_Ace finally allowed himself a smile. The former prisoner's erstwhile captors watched him disappear into the distance, singing what sounded like, 'It's coming home, it's coming home!' until he was too far away for them to hear anything.
RS’ problem is simple - he has never been in a job where he has been held to account. At Goldmans, he would have been one of the golden boys. At TCI, being a hedge fund manager, the banks’ analysts and sales people would have been licking his balls telling him how great he was. He was parachuted into Richmond. He has never had a rough department role - Chief Sec to the Treasury then C o E then PM.
It involved Mr Bean and is a story worth searching out.
Still, this has made me eyeball the polling since 1979 for a swing back towards the incumbent in the last 6-12 months before the election.
Here's my unscientific, simplified conclusion (where I say 'swing' below I really mean change in lead - the real swing is half that of course):
1979 10% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months (Winter of Discontent).
1983 5% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months.
1987 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months.
1992 10% swing to the incumbents (C) 15-12 months out, then broadly level. (But all the polls underestimated C by 5-10%)
1997 10% swing to the incumbents (C) from 15 months out.
2001 5% swing away from the incumbents (L) in the last 12 months (ignoring the brief fuel prices protest polling blip 6 months out).
2005 5% swing to the incumbents (L) in the last 6 months. (But polls overestimated L by 5-10%)
2010 10% swing to the incumbents (L) in the months 12-3 then broadly unchanged until the GE.
2015 10% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 12 months.
2017 15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the months 12-1 then 15% swing away in the GE campaign. Net neutral.
2019 10-15% swing to the incumbents (C) in the last 6 months (after change of leader).
So, after all that, yes there's usually but not always a swing to the incumbents in the last 12 months, boosting their lead or reducing the opposition's lead by an average of 10%.
Not enough for the Tories this time of course.
Greek PM accuses Sunak of running scared in new Marbles row: “Anyone who believes in the correctness and justice of their positions is never afraid of opposing arguments.”
"What liberals call populism is the political backlash against the social disruption produced by their policies".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSS85bMSnYg
Labour: “If the Prime Minister isn’t able to meet with a European ally with whom Britain has important economic ties, this is further proof he isn’t able to provide the serious economic leadership our country requires. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party stands ready”. It’s a gift.
You’re missing the point (as does Hitchens).
Assad and IS are wholly responsible for Syria being a shithole. Cameron is not.
No sane person would wish to ruled by either Assad or IS.
What that entails depends very much on 2 things.
The distribution of those votes. I can't see UNS being of much relevance.
And. Scotland.
I suspect a Labour majority of 30 would be something both major Parties would take right now if offered it.
Quite the polymath.
😆
The BM has demonstrated that it is certainly not a safe place to store antiquities, and in any case they are incredibly dull sculptures that are bed-blocking much more interesting things that could take their place. Give them back and promote some of the truly amazing archaeology we have from this country instead.
As for the geopolitics of it, I’m sure we’re all delighted that somebody is finally standing up to the Greeks. Oh wait, it’s 2023 and the fag-end of the shittest British cabinet of all time, not the battle of fecking Corinth. It just looks petty and weird.
Perhaps an optimist would interpret the chart differently, its is all upside!