Its always fun when Leon "discovers" a theory we've all known about and spoken about for years, then acts as if it is groundbreaking and reads far too much into it.
Er, I’m not claiming to have “discovered” the wisdom of crowds. I’m applying it to the lab leak argument
It is genuinely interesting that the crowd in every country polled now says: Lab Leak
Its always fun when Leon "discovers" a theory we've all known about and spoken about for years, then acts as if it is groundbreaking and reads far too much into it.
And doesn't understand where it is and is not applicable, and what confounding factors can and cannot apply.
The strange recent death of the Greens continues to flummox me. They'd been scoring upper single figures with most pollsters for a couple of years with virtually zero news coverage. Now, in a fortnight when the Labour party is in turmoil over Israel-Gaza and with the Greens the usual repository for disaffected Labour leftists, they're falling backwards.
Meanwhile the Lib Dems, who've not had any notable coverage or good news in recent days and were bricking it about the return of Dave, are rising across the board. 14% is one of the highest LD scores for some time. I think that may be a reaction to the Suella and stop the boats stuff, though that's just conjecture.
This would be a far better country - and probably a far less divided one - if Boris Johnson had been born in a council house.
Johnson is quite like a council estate benefit scrounger of tabloid imagination - numerous kids by different mothers, lazy and feckless, thinks the world owes him a living, permanently skint, can't hold down a job, unkempt appearance, engages in drunken shouting matches waking the neighbours... Perhaps he could star in a remake of Shameless.
Puts his "what about the inheritance of poor little Wilfred" moan into perspective.
If little Wilfred didn't have so many siblings, there would be a lot more in the pot for him.
I'd be interested in the overlap between people who rated Boris Johnson and people with a Maths A level at B or above. Quite small I'd imagine.
@isam is his biggest fan and makes his living by assessing probability and risk.
I don’t think I am his biggest fan; I just think people who were gutted by Remain losing the referendum projected a lot of their anger into him, making those who didn’t have a big opinion on him seem like fans. I’m not sure I ever made a gushing comment about him, as in him being a genius, or master strategist, more that he was a good example of my theory of personality going a long way, which upset the establishment, both political and PB.
I suppose him being the one that got Brexit over the line made him a bit of a hero of my cause, so I leapt to his defence when his haters saw everything he did through the prism of bitter hatred.
Policy wise he didn’t seem particularly right wing as PM; if it had been a Labour leader doing as he did I doubt many Centrist would have minded
As for A-Levels, a rather Corbyn-esque C & E for me, English Lit & Psychology
Didn't one of the great fictional POTUS, Josiah Bartlet, once opine:
"You have a lot of help, you listen to everybody and then you call the play"
That presumably is the essence of leadership - being able to give equal weight both to the opinions you like and the opinions you don't. Perhaps the problem is leaders surround themselves with advisers who act more in an affirmatory than controversial fashion.
I assume it's also the competing priorities in play. The reason PMs don't trust Cabinet Ministers who may shine and then be after their job, or good advice from a source they don't like or wish to empower. Advisers who have their own agendas, or follow an order precisely even if the leader hasn't thought it through, or focus on factional opponents more than actions.
The strange recent death of the Greens continues to flummox me. They'd been scoring upper single figures with most pollsters for a couple of years with virtually zero news coverage. Now, in a fortnight when the Labour party is in turmoil over Israel-Gaza and with the Greens the usual repository for disaffected Labour leftists, they're falling backwards.
Meanwhile the Lib Dems, who've not had any notable coverage or good news in recent days and were bricking it about the return of Dave, are rising across the board. 14% is one of the highest LD scores for some time. I think that may be a reaction to the Suella and stop the boats stuff, though that's just conjecture.
Ref down too. Weird polling. (perhaps just MoE)
A couple of polls are showing a minor SNP bounce back. Could be nothing. Tiny samples
But I wonder if the appointment of Dave “solemn vow” Cameron has annoyed some Scots back to the Nats
If you watch "Ask The Audience" on a Russian edition of Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, the audience sometimes deliberately votes for the wrong answer in order to be obnoxious to the contestant. Says something about the character of Russians.
I'd be interested in the overlap between people who rated Boris Johnson and people with a Maths A level at B or above. Quite small I'd imagine.
*Raises hand*
But it depends what you mean by “rated”. He got the referendum won. He avoided a second referendum that would have been lost. He ensured a hard-ish Brexit. He turns out to have kept our lockdown as short as was ever going to be possible, albeit more by luck than judgement.
He was very useful.
And he's trashed the Tory brand for a generation meaning I'm happy too. A little something for everyone.
If you watch "Ask The Audience" on a Russian edition of Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, the audience sometimes deliberately votes for the wrong answer in order to be obnoxious to the contestant. Says something about the character of Russians.
Hahahah
Is that true? I do love the Russians - sometimes - with their darkness and cynicism
This would be a far better country - and probably a far less divided one - if Boris Johnson had been born in a council house.
Johnson is quite like a council estate benefit scrounger of tabloid imagination - numerous kids by different mothers, lazy and feckless, thinks the world owes him a living, permanently skint, can't hold down a job, unkempt appearance, engages in drunken shouting matches waking the neighbours... Perhaps he could star in a remake of Shameless.
Perhaps why Boris was the first Conservative leader in history to win more DE unskilled working class and unemployed voters than Labour at GE2019? And may well be the last Tory leader to win that class
I was lucky enough to tour Speaker's House recently, and the greatest sight was the official portrait of John Bercow, with a blank panel they kept in anticipation of putting his peerage there.
Its always fun when Leon "discovers" a theory we've all known about and spoken about for years, then acts as if it is groundbreaking and reads far too much into it.
Er, I’m not claiming to have “discovered” the wisdom of crowds. I’m applying it to the lab leak argument
It is genuinely interesting that the crowd in every country polled now says: Lab Leak
Awesome logic. We now know why you follow so many conspiracy theories because that is what they rely upon. Convince the gullible in the crowd.
I'd be interested in the overlap between people who rated Boris Johnson and people with a Maths A level at B or above. Quite small I'd imagine.
*Raises hand*
But it depends what you mean by “rated”. He got the referendum won. He avoided a second referendum that would have been lost. He ensured a hard-ish Brexit. He turns out to have kept our lockdown as short as was ever going to be possible, albeit more by luck than judgement.
He was very useful.
And he's trashed the Tory brand for a generation meaning I'm happy too. A little something for everyone.
Edit: Well done on that Maths.
Ooo I’ll have some of your benefit too. Labour hasn’t quite got there, but my dream scenario was to Brexit and then vote for “Blue Labour” governments.
Was Churchill a maths whizz or a genius at quantum physics? I rather doubt it
He was great with words, he had charisma and a gift for leadership. He was bold, and a fine judge of character, he was emotionally intelligent, and he was self confident (to a fault, some would say)
I’m ignoring his flaws for this argument.
He was perfect for wartime. Sometimes you need chemists, sometimes you need warriors
I think that he used matchsticks to help count when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer?
I'd be interested in the overlap between people who rated Boris Johnson and people with a Maths A level at B or above. Quite small I'd imagine.
*Raises hand*
But it depends what you mean by “rated”. He got the referendum won. He avoided a second referendum that would have been lost. He ensured a hard-ish Brexit. He turns out to have kept our lockdown as short as was ever going to be possible, albeit more by luck than judgement.
He was very useful.
And he's trashed the Tory brand for a generation meaning I'm happy too. A little something for everyone.
Edit: Well done on that Maths.
Ooo I’ll have some of your benefit too. Labour hasn’t quite got there, but my dream scenario was to Brexit and then vote for “Blue Labour” governments.
Mind too. I thought Boris’s govt was a bit like that, or maybe I just hoped it would be. Covid got in the way, so we will never know
If only Sir Keir wasn’t the arch second referendum chaser, as well as being an unlikeable liar, I’d love to vote for them again. Would feel like coming home. I had to ask my parents if they’d hate me if I voted Conservative in 2019.
Its always fun when Leon "discovers" a theory we've all known about and spoken about for years, then acts as if it is groundbreaking and reads far too much into it.
Er, I’m not claiming to have “discovered” the wisdom of crowds. I’m applying it to the lab leak argument
It is genuinely interesting that the crowd in every country polled now says: Lab Leak
Awesome logic. We now know why you follow so many conspiracy theories because that is what they rely upon. Convince the gullible in the crowd.
“I have initiated several discussions”
That’s going to be your epitaph
Here lieth @kg whatever. Some guy. He was on pb a bit
I was lucky enough to tour Speaker's House recently, and the greatest sight was the official portrait of John Bercow, with a blank panel they kept in anticipation of putting his peerage there.
We have only had 1 PM with a science degree, Thatcher.
It isn't a requirement for the job, what is needed is top science advisers in the civil service who can break down complex scientific analysis and data in a way the PM can make a decision from it and a PM who is able to analyse complex problems and come to an effective decision from it
Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe Angela Merkel was a chemist by profession. Given the esteem in which she isn't held by many in here, does this invalidate the hypothesis?
Merkel's degree was in Physics, rather than Chemistry like Thatcher but yes both were scientists
I'll analyse the billhooks out of the R&W tables later - but I'm immediately struck by Lab/LD/Green 62% Conservative/Reform 31%.
More in line with last week's post-reshuffle polls before the cluster of 3 at the end of the week with much lower LLG-RefCon leads. 5 has 30+ leads, the last 3 had mid 20s leads.
By the way LLG was 60% in 1997, 59% in 2001, 58.2% in 2005 and 53% in 2010. More stable than Lab or Tory shares.
I'll analyse the billhooks out of the R&W tables later - but I'm immediately struck by Lab/LD/Green 62% Conservative/Reform 31%.
So Con/Reform over 30% even if Con alone isn't
Why do you persistently assume every Reform vote is going to go back to the Conservatives at the next election? What little polling evidence there is (from R&W) oddly enough suggested in a forced choice only 24% of Reform voters would vote for a Conservative candidate if there was no Reform candidate in their constituency. 16% would vote Labour and at least half wouldn't vote at all.
The potential shift from Reform to Conservative is therefore 2%, not 7%.
A more prescient question is or are the 2019 Conservative voters who are Don't Knows at this time. That is where you should be targeting your activities not worrying about Reform.
Tonight's R&W poll splits the 2019 Conservative vote as 55% Conservative, 16% Don't Know, 12% Labour and 7% Reform. The last time I looked, 16 was a larger number than 7 - I suspect this is the grouping being targeted by Hunt and Sunak this week not those who are now backing Reform.
I'd be interested in the overlap between people who rated Boris Johnson and people with a Maths A level at B or above. Quite small I'd imagine.
*Raises hand*
But it depends what you mean by “rated”. He got the referendum won. He avoided a second referendum that would have been lost. He ensured a hard-ish Brexit. He turns out to have kept our lockdown as short as was ever going to be possible, albeit more by luck than judgement.
He was very useful.
And he's trashed the Tory brand for a generation meaning I'm happy too. A little something for everyone.
Edit: Well done on that Maths.
Ooo I’ll have some of your benefit too. Labour hasn’t quite got there, but my dream scenario was to Brexit and then vote for “Blue Labour” governments.
Mind too. I thought Boris’s govt was a bit like that, or maybe I just hoped it would be. Covid got in the way, so we will never know
If only Sir Keir wasn’t the arch second referendum chaser, as well as being an unlikeable liar, I’d love to vote for them again. Would feel like coming home. I had to ask my parents if they’d hate me if I voted Conservative in 2019.
Bring back Ed Miliband and Maurice Glasman!
Lord Glasman is an interesting figure, but has been somewhat quiet of late. It would be good to hear more from him.
Johnson was born in 1964, so must have done Maths O level. If you passed that you really should have a basic level of numeracy.
Isn't the basic problem that not only isn't he's crap at maths - lots of people, even highly educated ones are - and we don't need politicians to be able to grasp Fermat's Last Theorem. But that he either lacked a basic grasp of concepts even non-mathematicians should be able to pick up with a bit of a refresher from someone with that expertise, or discarded them when they didn't accord with his gut and what he wanted to be true at any given moment. Hence why he veered about all over the place rather than working out a strategy that tried to optimised the government's desired outcomes.
And other than handwringing and virtue signalling, what will that actually achieve?
This is where Phillips was foolish last week. She sacrificed some excellent work on UK women's rights for something of no realistic benefit to the people of Gaza, because Bibi couldn't give two hoots about what some gobby Brummie thinks.
I think in the case of Phillips and co they sacrificed a few things now for an easy election campaign come the next election
Nothing stopping Starmer reappointing them after the election, too.
Phillips will be back imo.
"Keir can I have a word?" "Sure Jess." "Well you know my constituency is ..." "You need to rebel on Gaza?" "I think I do. I'm getting hammered." "Ok. So go for it. It's fine." "Really?" "Yes. Just pop me a resignation, get yourself reelected next year and then we'll have a chat." "Cheers boss."
I entirely support democracy but its bad and disappointing people feel they need to do the wrong thing to appeal to bigots in their constituency.
Jess Phillips has been until the past week long been one of my favourite Labour MPs, one of the few of that party I could respect in Corbyn's years, its a real shame to see her do what she's done this past week. Its a shame she didn't feel she could stand up to those bigots rather than kowtow to them.
You know I don't discuss Gaza with you. Other topics are fine though. So it's nothing personal.
Boris Johnson is history either way, I think the most relevant and concerning comment is this one actually:
Lack of science expertise in gov - Valance says 10% of the civil service fast stream have a STEM degree (90% arts/humanities) so:
"routine consideration of science in policy formulation is not where it needs to be"
That's 90% of the civil service aren't from a STEM background explains a lot really. The figure will be even higher in the media too I'm sure.
Hardly that surprising, most with a STEM background go into the City or Industry where the pay is higher than the civil service.
Most civil servants beyond say the Treasury or parts of Health and aspects of DWP don't actually need to be brilliant at science and maths, what is important though is that high quality civil servants trained in STEM subjects are recruited to those departments
A good understanding of statistics and logic should be useful for all other than junior civil servants.
Helpful maybe but a degree in History or international relations would probably be more useful at the FCO, in Law at the Home Office or Justice, in public administration or Medicine for Health, an MBA at Business, in Geography at Transport etc
I'd be interested in the overlap between people who rated Boris Johnson and people with a Maths A level at B or above. Quite small I'd imagine.
*Raises hand*
But it depends what you mean by “rated”. He got the referendum won. He avoided a second referendum that would have been lost. He ensured a hard-ish Brexit. He turns out to have kept our lockdown as short as was ever going to be possible, albeit more by luck than judgement.
He was very useful.
And he's trashed the Tory brand for a generation meaning I'm happy too. A little something for everyone.
Edit: Well done on that Maths.
Ooo I’ll have some of your benefit too. Labour hasn’t quite got there, but my dream scenario was to Brexit and then vote for “Blue Labour” governments.
Mind too. I thought Boris’s govt was a bit like that, or maybe I just hoped it would be. Covid got in the way, so we will never know
If only Sir Keir wasn’t the arch second referendum chaser, as well as being an unlikeable liar, I’d love to vote for them again. Would feel like coming home. I had to ask my parents if they’d hate me if I voted Conservative in 2019.
Bring back Ed Miliband and Maurice Glasman!
Lord Glasman is an interesting figure, but has been somewhat quiet of late. It would be good to hear more from him.
Did you listen to his interview w Giles Fraser? Made a good case for left wing Brexit I seem to remember
I'll analyse the billhooks out of the R&W tables later - but I'm immediately struck by Lab/LD/Green 62% Conservative/Reform 31%.
More in line with last week's post-reshuffle polls before the cluster of 3 at the end of the week with much lower LLG-RefCon leads. 5 has 30+ leads, the last 3 had mid 20s leads.
By the way LLG was 60% in 1997, 59% in 2001, 58.2% in 2005 and 53% in 2010. More stable than Lab or Tory shares.
Perhaps tellingly, in those examples the liberals were eating up some of what we might have now thought the expected Tory vote. Hmm
Off topic, but important: "Vladislav Kanyus, a young man from Kemerovo in southwestern Siberia, brutally killed his ex-girlfriend Vera Pekhteleva, torturing, suffocating and stabbing her for hours.
He was sentenced in July 2022 to 17 years after a high-profile trial that reignited a national conversation in Russia about the lack of protections against domestic violence and law enforcement indifference to such cases. But then Pekhteleva’s bereaved mother, Oksana, received a photo of Kanyus — not in prison but in a military uniform surrounded by other Russian soldiers.
Johnson was born in 1964, so must have done Maths O level. If you passed that you really should have a basic level of numeracy.
Isn't the basic problem that not only isn't he's crap at maths - lots of people, even highly educated ones are - and we don't need politicians to be able to grasp Fermat's Last Theorem. But that he either lacked a basic grasp of concepts even non-mathematicians should be able to pick up with a bit of a refresher from someone with that expertise, or discarded them when they didn't accord with his gut and what he wanted to be true at any given moment. Hence why he veered about all over the place rather than working out a strategy that tried to optimised the government's desired outcomes.
Lacked the humility and diligence required for an intelligent person to operate effectively in a field they're unfamiliar with.
Hmm. I do find it quite shocking that Boris didn’t understand “doubling times”. That’s not advanced maths
But I wonder as to the veracity of Vallance’s report. It is bound to be self serving; he also comes across as quite pig-headed and unobservant - may simply have misread Bojo
Its always fun when Leon "discovers" a theory we've all known about and spoken about for years, then acts as if it is groundbreaking and reads far too much into it.
Er, I’m not claiming to have “discovered” the wisdom of crowds. I’m applying it to the lab leak argument
It is genuinely interesting that the crowd in every country polled now says: Lab Leak
Awesome logic. We now know why you follow so many conspiracy theories because that is what they rely upon. Convince the gullible in the crowd.
“I have initiated several discussions”
That’s going to be your epitaph
Here lieth @kg whatever. Some guy. He was on pb a bit
He initiated several discussions
Lol. You had to put effort in getting my name wrong as kjh is a sequence on the keyboard.
Off topic, but important: "Vladislav Kanyus, a young man from Kemerovo in southwestern Siberia, brutally killed his ex-girlfriend Vera Pekhteleva, torturing, suffocating and stabbing her for hours.
He was sentenced in July 2022 to 17 years after a high-profile trial that reignited a national conversation in Russia about the lack of protections against domestic violence and law enforcement indifference to such cases. But then Pekhteleva’s bereaved mother, Oksana, received a photo of Kanyus — not in prison but in a military uniform surrounded by other Russian soldiers.
I'd be interested in the overlap between people who rated Boris Johnson and people with a Maths A level at B or above. Quite small I'd imagine.
*Raises hand*
But it depends what you mean by “rated”. He got the referendum won. He avoided a second referendum that would have been lost. He ensured a hard-ish Brexit. He turns out to have kept our lockdown as short as was ever going to be possible, albeit more by luck than judgement.
He was very useful.
And he's trashed the Tory brand for a generation meaning I'm happy too. A little something for everyone.
Edit: Well done on that Maths.
Ooo I’ll have some of your benefit too. Labour hasn’t quite got there, but my dream scenario was to Brexit and then vote for “Blue Labour” governments.
Mind too. I thought Boris’s govt was a bit like that, or maybe I just hoped it would be. Covid got in the way, so we will never know
If only Sir Keir wasn’t the arch second referendum chaser, as well as being an unlikeable liar, I’d love to vote for them again. Would feel like coming home. I had to ask my parents if they’d hate me if I voted Conservative in 2019.
Bring back Ed Miliband and Maurice Glasman!
Lord Glasman is an interesting figure, but has been somewhat quiet of late. It would be good to hear more from him.
He’s not been quiet. He’s come out and condemned all the anti Semitism on the Left
Off topic, but important: "Vladislav Kanyus, a young man from Kemerovo in southwestern Siberia, brutally killed his ex-girlfriend Vera Pekhteleva, torturing, suffocating and stabbing her for hours.
He was sentenced in July 2022 to 17 years after a high-profile trial that reignited a national conversation in Russia about the lack of protections against domestic violence and law enforcement indifference to such cases. But then Pekhteleva’s bereaved mother, Oksana, received a photo of Kanyus — not in prison but in a military uniform surrounded by other Russian soldiers.
Its always fun when Leon "discovers" a theory we've all known about and spoken about for years, then acts as if it is groundbreaking and reads far too much into it.
Er, I’m not claiming to have “discovered” the wisdom of crowds. I’m applying it to the lab leak argument
It is genuinely interesting that the crowd in every country polled now says: Lab Leak
Awesome logic. We now know why you follow so many conspiracy theories because that is what they rely upon. Convince the gullible in the crowd.
Boris Johnson is history either way, I think the most relevant and concerning comment is this one actually:
Lack of science expertise in gov - Valance says 10% of the civil service fast stream have a STEM degree (90% arts/humanities) so:
"routine consideration of science in policy formulation is not where it needs to be"
That's 90% of the civil service aren't from a STEM background explains a lot really. The figure will be even higher in the media too I'm sure.
Hardly that surprising, most with a STEM background go into the City or Industry where the pay is higher than the civil service.
Most civil servants beyond say the Treasury or parts of Health and aspects of DWP don't actually need to be brilliant at science and maths, what is important though is that high quality civil servants trained in STEM subjects are recruited to those departments
A good understanding of statistics and logic should be useful for all other than junior civil servants.
Helpful maybe but a degree in History or international relations would probably be more useful at the FCO, in Law at the Home Office or Justice, in public administration or Medicine for Health, an MBA at Business, in Geography at Transport etc
Yep fair point. Ideally you want people who are specialists in their field, but with a basic understanding of logic and stats so they can comprehend the arguments being put to them by advisors and specialists.
Hmm. I do find it quite shocking that Boris didn’t understand “doubling times”. That’s not advanced maths
But I wonder as to the veracity of Vallance’s report. It is bound to be self serving; he also comes across as quite pig-headed and unobservant - may simply have misread Bojo
To be honest, very few people really get doubling times and exponential growth. Compound interest and whatnot.
And it's not particularly about doing the maths. It's that it doesn't match our intuition, and everyone (even boffins) operate on intuition most of the time.
See the legend of the king, the rice and the chessboard. Or the riddle about lily pads and a pond.
Hmm. I do find it quite shocking that Boris didn’t understand “doubling times”. That’s not advanced maths
But I wonder as to the veracity of Vallance’s report. It is bound to be self serving; he also comes across as quite pig-headed and unobservant - may simply have misread Bojo
To be honest, very few people really get doubling times and exponential growth. Compound interest and whatnot.
And it's not particularly about doing the maths. It's that it doesn't match our intuition, and everyone (even boffins) operate on intuition most of the time.
Ponzi schemes offering guaranteed 2% weekly returns and the like rely on it.
It may not be popular with some on here but it will be popular in Newham and around Stratford where the two Green Councillors have been working hard in opposition. The Greens have a real chance of chasing home Labour at the next election and while this week's by-election in Plaistow North probably isn't their best territory, the Green will probably outpoll both the LD and Conservativer candidates.
The “good innings” and “lack of leadership” extract from Vallance’s diary shown to the Covid inquiry (see 3.05pm) also quotes Vallance quoting Dominic Cummings (DC), the PM’s chief adviser at the time, saying, “Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that’s okay.”
This was 25 October 2020. Sunak was chancellor at the time.
Vallance is deeply implicated in the conspiracy - for that is what it was - to silence debate around the possibility of “lab leak”. To make it socially impermissible to discuss. They did this to protect the poor virologists, and the future of science, and relations with China
He deserves zero respect
Oh no, not the lab leak again. And all after holiday snaps, Liz Truss's S&M necklace, "what three words" and AI.
Today we celebrate all of Leon's greatest hits. A bit like Leon's version of the Beatles Red and Blue albums.
The weird thing is, you all know my tracks. My greatest hits. See @kjh above
Yet I can’t name any of yours. Not one. And I bet no one else can, either
You are like formless shades in an ether, you come and go and no one cares, and when you are gone no one will notice
No because I, for a post or two stick to the topic and then go wildly off piste, but mainly in response to another poster's deviation from topic. I don't hijack the thread.
You do of course recall my main PB pet hate. Barstewards using autism as a casual slur. I f*****' hate that.
But, yes other than that I try to keep my idiosyncrasies to myself.
Edit. Oh yes, and having been to a grammar school, I f****' hate grammar schools too.
Hmm. I do find it quite shocking that Boris didn’t understand “doubling times”. That’s not advanced maths
But I wonder as to the veracity of Vallance’s report. It is bound to be self serving; he also comes across as quite pig-headed and unobservant - may simply have misread Bojo
To be honest, very few people really get doubling times and exponential growth. Compound interest and whatnot.
And it's not particularly about doing the maths. It's that it doesn't match our intuition, and everyone (even boffins) operate on intuition most of the time.
See the legend of the king, the rice and the chessboard. Or the riddle about lily pads and a pond.
I was going to post the same. Another example is the number of g g g g ... grandparents you have once you get back to the years 1800, 1500, 800 etc.
And understanding weight change when linear measures change eg cat, human, elephant and explaining why fleas can jump high, cats don't break their legs when jumping boff a high wall, etc, etc
The “good innings” and “lack of leadership” extract from Vallance’s diary shown to the Covid inquiry (see 3.05pm) also quotes Vallance quoting Dominic Cummings (DC), the PM’s chief adviser at the time, saying, “Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that’s okay.”
This was 25 October 2020. Sunak was chancellor at the time.
Vallance is deeply implicated in the conspiracy - for that is what it was - to silence debate around the possibility of “lab leak”. To make it socially impermissible to discuss. They did this to protect the poor virologists, and the future of science, and relations with China
He deserves zero respect
Oh no, not the lab leak again. And all after holiday snaps, Liz Truss's S&M necklace, "what three words" and AI.
Today we celebrate all of Leon's greatest hits. A bit like Leon's version of the Beatles Red and Blue albums.
The weird thing is, you all know my tracks. My greatest hits. See @kjh above
Yet I can’t name any of yours. Not one. And I bet no one else can, either
You are like formless shades in an ether, you come and go and no one cares, and when you are gone no one will notice
No because I, for a post or two stick to the topic and then go wildly off piste, but mainly in response to another poster's deviation from topic. I don't hijack the thread.
You do of course recall my main PB pet hate. Barstewards using autism as a casual slur. I f*****' hate that.
But, yes other than that I try to keep my idiosyncrasies to myself.
Edit. Oh yes, and grammar schools. I f****' hate grammar schools too.
Another phrase for “hijacking a thread” is “saying something interesting that people want to talk about”
That’s all it is. There is no rule about staying on topic. PB would be unreadable if there was. The joy of this splendid forum is the ceaseless variety. The glory of the garden. And long may it remain so - and all credit to the moderators for keeping it diverse - and using such a light touch
An off topic comment will only “hijack a thread” if others find it engaging and diverting - so maybe you and @kjh could try that tactic and get your own back. Be engaging and diverting. It is, after all, always good to try new things?
It may not be popular with some on here but it will be popular in Newham and around Stratford where the two Green Councillors have been working hard in opposition. The Greens have a real chance of chasing home Labour at the next election and while this week's by-election in Plaistow North probably isn't their best territory, the Green will probably outpoll both the LD and Conservativer candidates.
Who has ended up moving into the old Olympic Park flats?
Is it be natural green voters, priced out of Hackney? Or is it normal voters who don't have a collective memory of Labour Always Wins?
(There's something a bit similar further east. Some of Labour's best results in Havering were in the new build areas where there was less memory of the usual local madness.)
Can we stop the @Leon pile-on now? The poor guy is like a kid in a room full of adults trying to impress and should be treated accordingly. I think he does very well in spite of everything.
The “good innings” and “lack of leadership” extract from Vallance’s diary shown to the Covid inquiry (see 3.05pm) also quotes Vallance quoting Dominic Cummings (DC), the PM’s chief adviser at the time, saying, “Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that’s okay.”
This was 25 October 2020. Sunak was chancellor at the time.
Vallance is deeply implicated in the conspiracy - for that is what it was - to silence debate around the possibility of “lab leak”. To make it socially impermissible to discuss. They did this to protect the poor virologists, and the future of science, and relations with China
He deserves zero respect
Oh no, not the lab leak again. And all after holiday snaps, Liz Truss's S&M necklace, "what three words" and AI.
Today we celebrate all of Leon's greatest hits. A bit like Leon's version of the Beatles Red and Blue albums.
The weird thing is, you all know my tracks. My greatest hits. See @kjh above
Yet I can’t name any of yours. Not one. And I bet no one else can, either
You are like formless shades in an ether, you come and go and no one cares, and when you are gone no one will notice
No because I, for a post or two stick to the topic and then go wildly off piste, but mainly in response to another poster's deviation from topic. I don't hijack the thread.
You do of course recall my main PB pet hate. Barstewards using autism as a casual slur. I f*****' hate that.
But, yes other than that I try to keep my idiosyncrasies to myself.
Edit. Oh yes, and grammar schools. I f****' hate grammar schools too.
Another phrase for “hijacking a thread” is “saying something interesting that people want to talk about”
That’s all it is. There is no rule about staying on topic. PB would be unreadable if there was. The joy of this splendid forum is the ceaseless variety. The glory of the garden. And long may it remain so - and all credit to the moderators for keeping it diverse - and using such a light touch
An off topic comment will only “hijack a thread” if others find it engaging and diverting - so maybe you and @kjh could try that tactic and get your own back. Be engaging and diverting. It is, after all, always good to try new things?
I have better things to do than post here endlessly. I have a life outside of PB much as I enjoy it.
Off topic, but also important: 'A Senate panel announced Monday it subpoenaed the CEOs of Elon Musk’s X, Discord and Snap to testify at a hearing on children’s online safety next month after “repeated refusals” by the tech companies to cooperate with its investigation into the matter. . . . The committee said that in a “remarkable departure from typical practice,” it had to “enlist the assistance of the U.S. Marshals Service to personally serve the subpoenas” to the CEOs of Discord and X, formerly Twitter, after their chief executives “further refused to cooperate.”
The hearing is set to focus on child sexual exploitation online.'
(Other tech executives had already agreed to testify, however reluctantly, in this biapartisan investigation.)
The “good innings” and “lack of leadership” extract from Vallance’s diary shown to the Covid inquiry (see 3.05pm) also quotes Vallance quoting Dominic Cummings (DC), the PM’s chief adviser at the time, saying, “Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that’s okay.”
This was 25 October 2020. Sunak was chancellor at the time.
Vallance is deeply implicated in the conspiracy - for that is what it was - to silence debate around the possibility of “lab leak”. To make it socially impermissible to discuss. They did this to protect the poor virologists, and the future of science, and relations with China
He deserves zero respect
Oh no, not the lab leak again. And all after holiday snaps, Liz Truss's S&M necklace, "what three words" and AI.
Today we celebrate all of Leon's greatest hits. A bit like Leon's version of the Beatles Red and Blue albums.
The weird thing is, you all know my tracks. My greatest hits. See @kjh above
Yet I can’t name any of yours. Not one. And I bet no one else can, either
You are like formless shades in an ether, you come and go and no one cares, and when you are gone no one will notice
No because I, for a post or two stick to the topic and then go wildly off piste, but mainly in response to another poster's deviation from topic. I don't hijack the thread.
You do of course recall my main PB pet hate. Barstewards using autism as a casual slur. I f*****' hate that.
But, yes other than that I try to keep my idiosyncrasies to myself.
Edit. Oh yes, and grammar schools. I f****' hate grammar schools too.
Another phrase for “hijacking a thread” is “saying something interesting that people want to talk about”
That’s all it is. There is no rule about staying on topic. PB would be unreadable if there was. The joy of this splendid forum is the ceaseless variety. The glory of the garden. And long may it remain so - and all credit to the moderators for keeping it diverse - and using such a light touch
An off topic comment will only “hijack a thread” if others find it engaging and diverting - so maybe you and @kjh could try that tactic and get your own back. Be engaging and diverting. It is, after all, always good to try new things?
One poster's "saying something interesting that other people want to talk about " is another poster's vision of mind- numbing drear-fest Purgatory.
Thank you for the invitation but I have no desire to hijack a thread. No one wants to read my s**** anyway.
P.S. I've fallen into your trap haven't I? I'm talking about you. Damn!
And other than handwringing and virtue signalling, what will that actually achieve?
This is where Phillips was foolish last week. She sacrificed some excellent work on UK women's rights for something of no realistic benefit to the people of Gaza, because Bibi couldn't give two hoots about what some gobby Brummie thinks.
I think in the case of Phillips and co they sacrificed a few things now for an easy election campaign come the next election
Nothing stopping Starmer reappointing them after the election, too.
Phillips will be back imo.
"Keir can I have a word?" "Sure Jess." "Well you know my constituency is ..." "You need to rebel on Gaza?" "I think I do. I'm getting hammered." "Ok. So go for it. It's fine." "Really?" "Yes. Just pop me a resignation, get yourself reelected next year and then we'll have a chat." "Cheers boss."
I entirely support democracy but its bad and disappointing people feel they need to do the wrong thing to appeal to bigots in their constituency.
Jess Phillips has been until the past week long been one of my favourite Labour MPs, one of the few of that party I could respect in Corbyn's years, its a real shame to see her do what she's done this past week. Its a shame she didn't feel she could stand up to those bigots rather than kowtow to them.
The sheer arrogance of this post is astounding.
You have a firm view on the Israeli action in Gaza that you have shared repeatedly. I am sure your view is sincerely held and I respect it.
Is it not possible that Phillips also has a sincere view that is different to yours?
No, you assume that your view is the only possible view to hold and that Phillips must therefore be deliberately compromising her principles and kowtowing to bigots in her constituency.
And other than handwringing and virtue signalling, what will that actually achieve?
This is where Phillips was foolish last week. She sacrificed some excellent work on UK women's rights for something of no realistic benefit to the people of Gaza, because Bibi couldn't give two hoots about what some gobby Brummie thinks.
I think in the case of Phillips and co they sacrificed a few things now for an easy election campaign come the next election
Nothing stopping Starmer reappointing them after the election, too.
Phillips will be back imo.
"Keir can I have a word?" "Sure Jess." "Well you know my constituency is ..." "You need to rebel on Gaza?" "I think I do. I'm getting hammered." "Ok. So go for it. It's fine." "Really?" "Yes. Just pop me a resignation, get yourself reelected next year and then we'll have a chat." "Cheers boss."
I entirely support democracy but its bad and disappointing people feel they need to do the wrong thing to appeal to bigots in their constituency.
Jess Phillips has been until the past week long been one of my favourite Labour MPs, one of the few of that party I could respect in Corbyn's years, its a real shame to see her do what she's done this past week. Its a shame she didn't feel she could stand up to those bigots rather than kowtow to them.
The sheer arrogance of this post is astounding.
You have a firm view on the Israeli action in Gaza that you have shared repeatedly. I am sure your view is sincerely held and I respect it.
Is it not possible that Phillips also has a sincere view that is different to yours?
No, you assume that your view is the only possible view to hold and that Phillips must therefore be deliberately compromising her principles and kowtowing to bigots in her constituency.
Arrogance.
It might be correct, it might not be - is this the only occasion people cannot speculate that a politician might be acting with different motivations than they state publicly? I feel pretty confident it happens a lot.
I've no idea of Phillips' motivations, but given bartholmew's own position he might well think less of her if she is sincere.
Can we stop the @Leon pile-on now? The poor guy is like a kid in a room full of adults trying to impress and should be treated accordingly. I think he does very well in spite of everything.
lol. I really don’t need defending!
What I do need is sleep. My Gazette editor has emailed and they want 1200 words on Neolithic Khmer sex gizmos by noon tomorrow. So I must refresh my brain
Can we stop the @Leon pile-on now? The poor guy is like a kid in a room full of adults trying to impress and should be treated accordingly. I think he does very well in spite of everything.
lol. I really don’t need defending!
What I do need is sleep. My Gazette editor has emailed and they want 1200 words on Neolithic Khmer sex gizmos by noon tomorrow. So I must refresh my brain
Night night
You might want to recharge your irony detection meters overnight too!
Also striking that Sunak's rating is down while the "competency" (competence?) rating is markedly up (+6). People feeling that they may not like Cameron but he's competent?
Can we stop the @Leon pile-on now? The poor guy is like a kid in a room full of adults trying to impress and should be treated accordingly. I think he does very well in spite of everything.
lol. I really don’t need defending!
What I do need is sleep. My Gazette editor has emailed and they want 1200 words on Neolithic Khmer sex gizmos by noon tomorrow. So I must refresh my brain
Can we stop the @Leon pile-on now? The poor guy is like a kid in a room full of adults trying to impress and should be treated accordingly. I think he does very well in spite of everything.
lol. I really don’t need defending!
What I do need is sleep. My Gazette editor has emailed and they want 1200 words on Neolithic Khmer sex gizmos by noon tomorrow. So I must refresh my brain
Hmm. I do find it quite shocking that Boris didn’t understand “doubling times”. That’s not advanced maths
But I wonder as to the veracity of Vallance’s report. It is bound to be self serving; he also comes across as quite pig-headed and unobservant - may simply have misread Bojo
To be honest, very few people really get doubling times and exponential growth. Compound interest and whatnot.
And it's not particularly about doing the maths. It's that it doesn't match our intuition, and everyone (even boffins) operate on intuition most of the time.
See the legend of the king, the rice and the chessboard. Or the riddle about lily pads and a pond.
Isn't the problem that reality is grainier than the maths? For example, the lily pads will only double in area if they're evenly distributed across the pond. Otherwise they'll pile up in a heap in a corner around the first one. Similarly with Covid. Just because it doubled from Monday to Wednesday doesn't mean it will double again by Friday. People are clustered in groups, sitting at home, not running around freely looking for innocent victims to infect. It's like simplistic economic theory: we all know how we're expected to behave in a marginal situation, but we also know that lots of people don't. Politicians, for all their innumeracy, are inherently sceptical about plausibly simple theories. Or, at least, they ought to be.
Off topic, but important: "Vladislav Kanyus, a young man from Kemerovo in southwestern Siberia, brutally killed his ex-girlfriend Vera Pekhteleva, torturing, suffocating and stabbing her for hours.
He was sentenced in July 2022 to 17 years after a high-profile trial that reignited a national conversation in Russia about the lack of protections against domestic violence and law enforcement indifference to such cases. But then Pekhteleva’s bereaved mother, Oksana, received a photo of Kanyus — not in prison but in a military uniform surrounded by other Russian soldiers.
The “good innings” and “lack of leadership” extract from Vallance’s diary shown to the Covid inquiry (see 3.05pm) also quotes Vallance quoting Dominic Cummings (DC), the PM’s chief adviser at the time, saying, “Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that’s okay.”
This was 25 October 2020. Sunak was chancellor at the time.
Vallance is deeply implicated in the conspiracy - for that is what it was - to silence debate around the possibility of “lab leak”. To make it socially impermissible to discuss. They did this to protect the poor virologists, and the future of science, and relations with China
He deserves zero respect
Rather like Cummings, whilst one may have limited respect for Vallance, that doesn't mean he hasn't got interesting things to say, or relevant notes from the time.
Incidentally, I had some rather tedious filing to do so listened to most of the 2-3 hour interview with Cummings someone posted yesterday. Fascinating - his analysis of the problems of Whitehall is spot on, but his only solution being to burn the system to the ground and run everything via super-bright young things recruited from startups seems rather less practical.
The “good innings” and “lack of leadership” extract from Vallance’s diary shown to the Covid inquiry (see 3.05pm) also quotes Vallance quoting Dominic Cummings (DC), the PM’s chief adviser at the time, saying, “Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that’s okay.”
This was 25 October 2020. Sunak was chancellor at the time.
Vallance is deeply implicated in the conspiracy - for that is what it was - to silence debate around the possibility of “lab leak”. To make it socially impermissible to discuss. They did this to protect the poor virologists, and the future of science, and relations with China
He deserves zero respect
Oh no, not the lab leak again. And all after holiday snaps, Liz Truss's S&M necklace, "what three words" and AI.
Today we celebrate all of Leon's greatest hits. A bit like Leon's version of the Beatles Red and Blue albums.
The weird thing is, you all know my tracks. My greatest hits. See @kjh above
Yet I can’t name any of yours. Not one. And I bet no one else can, either
You are like formless shades in an ether, you come and go and no one cares, and when you are gone no one will notice
Personally I measure my worth by other things than whether I am remembered on an internet blog
I'd be interested in the overlap between people who rated Boris Johnson and people with a Maths A level at B or above. Quite small I'd imagine.
*Raises hand*
But it depends what you mean by “rated”. He got the referendum won. He avoided a second referendum that would have been lost. He ensured a hard-ish Brexit. He turns out to have kept our lockdown as short as was ever going to be possible, albeit more by luck than judgement.
He was very useful.
And he's trashed the Tory brand for a generation meaning I'm happy too. A little something for everyone.
Edit: Well done on that Maths.
Ooo I’ll have some of your benefit too. Labour hasn’t quite got there, but my dream scenario was to Brexit and then vote for “Blue Labour” governments.
Mind too. I thought Boris’s govt was a bit like that, or maybe I just hoped it would be. Covid got in the way, so we will never know
If only Sir Keir wasn’t the arch second referendum chaser, as well as being an unlikeable liar, I’d love to vote for them again. Would feel like coming home. I had to ask my parents if they’d hate me if I voted Conservative in 2019.
Bring back Ed Miliband and Maurice Glasman!
Your 2nd ref point is strong and authentic. A committed leaver such as yourself is entitled to hold that grudge against SKS until their dying day.
But the point about lying, no, you don't really feel that. You can't feel that because as a Boris Johnson supporter you by definition have a high tolerance for mendacity in politics.
They want a cessation of hostilities against Michael Matheson?
It's also notably asn example of Slab trying to adopt SNP policies to survive, and **** the Union (at least where the Labour Party is concerned) and SKS.
As there is n o separate Scottish Labour Party in reality (vide EC), this means that a large province of the Labour Party is declaring rebellion under its uneasy satrap. Yet the money is still controlled from London.
I'm not denying that Boris isn't exactly God's gift to hard science, but the testimony of Patrick Vallance - who hardly covered himself in glory in the pandemic with his grasp of the modelling - isn't actually as damning as all that. When we get the views of someone who actually called some of it right, it'll be worth listening to.
So when is St. Boris (the man who got ALL the big calls right) giving what we might casually call "evidence"?
I dont' think politicians should need to be a maths wizz to be on the front benches, they don't need to have demonstrable experience in that field, but I do think they need to have a good level of comprehension of economic and financial matters, and so develop those skills if they want to hold serious posts. You might not get a post in the Treasury but collectively ministers need to be at least a little financially savvy.
It's why I could not be an MP, as I simply find economic matters very hard to grasp even when explained to me, and despite all the other roles an MP has I think they should, with a bit of effort, understand that sort of thing.
Of course, they often make believe they don't understand things like the deficit or debt, so it is hard to judge.
A shoutout for the Politics, Philosophy and ECONOMICS degree then?
I'm not denying that Boris isn't exactly God's gift to hard science, but the testimony of Patrick Vallance - who hardly covered himself in glory in the pandemic with his grasp of the modelling - isn't actually as damning as all that. When we get the views of someone who actually called some of it right, it'll be worth listening to.
So when is St. Boris (the man who got ALL the big calls right) giving what we might casually call "evidence"?
Given that Boris is a psittacus mortuus politically, the most telling comment from today’s evidence was “DC says ‘Rishi thinks just let people die and that’s okay’.
“This all feels like a complete lack of leadership.”
And other than handwringing and virtue signalling, what will that actually achieve?
This is where Phillips was foolish last week. She sacrificed some excellent work on UK women's rights for something of no realistic benefit to the people of Gaza, because Bibi couldn't give two hoots about what some gobby Brummie thinks.
I think in the case of Phillips and co they sacrificed a few things now for an easy election campaign come the next election
Nothing stopping Starmer reappointing them after the election, too.
Phillips will be back imo.
"Keir can I have a word?" "Sure Jess." "Well you know my constituency is ..." "You need to rebel on Gaza?" "I think I do. I'm getting hammered." "Ok. So go for it. It's fine." "Really?" "Yes. Just pop me a resignation, get yourself reelected next year and then we'll have a chat." "Cheers boss."
I entirely support democracy but its bad and disappointing people feel they need to do the wrong thing to appeal to bigots in their constituency.
Jess Phillips has been until the past week long been one of my favourite Labour MPs, one of the few of that party I could respect in Corbyn's years, its a real shame to see her do what she's done this past week. Its a shame she didn't feel she could stand up to those bigots rather than kowtow to them.
Isn’t it terrible when one’s heroes don’t quite live up to expectations. Very sad.
I dont' think politicians should need to be a maths wizz to be on the front benches, they don't need to have demonstrable experience in that field, but I do think they need to have a good level of comprehension of economic and financial matters, and so develop those skills if they want to hold serious posts. You might not get a post in the Treasury but collectively ministers need to be at least a little financially savvy.
It's why I could not be an MP, as I simply find economic matters very hard to grasp even when explained to me, and despite all the other roles an MP has I think they should, with a bit of effort, understand that sort of thing.
Of course, they often make believe they don't understand things like the deficit or debt, so it is hard to judge.
A shoutout for the Politics, Philosophy and ECONOMICS degree then?
The characterisation of letting people die showing no leadership is incorrect. Not having another lockdown would have been the tough decision and would have been extremely brave of the government and it would have required extraordinary leadership to actually do it. In the end Boris chose the easy option and bankrupted the nation so that a few over 80s could extend their lives by another few months.
I'd be interested in the overlap between people who rated Boris Johnson and people with a Maths A level at B or above. Quite small I'd imagine.
*Raises hand*
But it depends what you mean by “rated”. He got the referendum won. He avoided a second referendum that would have been lost. He ensured a hard-ish Brexit. He turns out to have kept our lockdown as short as was ever going to be possible, albeit more by luck than judgement.
He was very useful.
And he's trashed the Tory brand for a generation meaning I'm happy too. A little something for everyone.
Edit: Well done on that Maths.
Ooo I’ll have some of your benefit too. Labour hasn’t quite got there, but my dream scenario was to Brexit and then vote for “Blue Labour” governments.
Mind too. I thought Boris’s govt was a bit like that, or maybe I just hoped it would be. Covid got in the way, so we will never know
If only Sir Keir wasn’t the arch second referendum chaser, as well as being an unlikeable liar, I’d love to vote for them again. Would feel like coming home. I had to ask my parents if they’d hate me if I voted Conservative in 2019.
Bring back Ed Miliband and Maurice Glasman!
Your 2nd ref point is strong and authentic. A committed leaver such as yourself is entitled to hold that grudge against SKS until their dying day.
But the point about lying, no, you don't really feel that. You can't feel that because as a Boris Johnson supporter you by definition have a high tolerance for mendacity in politics.
Seems strange, but the difference is that it was factored in with Boris - we knew he had form for lying, and that was the rough to his kind of devil may care smooth; he was a bounder and we knew it.
With Sir Keir, he has built a reputation as honest, loyal, quite pious in tone… but is as bigger liar in his political life as Boris. Aside from the leadership pledge lies & the Brexit snideyness, the ‘men can have a cervix’/oh no they can’t, the vegetarianism when he eats animals, the knighthood when he said he was a Republican; it’s all so… I can’t thinking the word… annoying! Just 100% the kind of person I don’t like in life
The “good innings” and “lack of leadership” extract from Vallance’s diary shown to the Covid inquiry (see 3.05pm) also quotes Vallance quoting Dominic Cummings (DC), the PM’s chief adviser at the time, saying, “Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that’s okay.”
This was 25 October 2020. Sunak was chancellor at the time.
Vallance is deeply implicated in the conspiracy - for that is what it was - to silence debate around the possibility of “lab leak”. To make it socially impermissible to discuss. They did this to protect the poor virologists, and the future of science, and relations with China
He deserves zero respect
Rather like Cummings, whilst one may have limited respect for Vallance, that doesn't mean he hasn't got interesting things to say, or relevant notes from the time.
Incidentally, I had some rather tedious filing to do so listened to most of the 2-3 hour interview with Cummings someone posted yesterday. Fascinating - his analysis of the problems of Whitehall is spot on, but his only solution being to burn the system to the ground and run everything via super-bright young things recruited from startups seems rather less practical.
The one thing I've learned from many years of business is that revolutions are usually an absolute disaster. (I am often temped to short any company that trumpets anything as transformative.)
You get from A to B by a process of rapid, small iterations*.
And if something doesn't work, you reverse it.
Human beings are very bad at being able to foresee the results of actions. So the more you bundle into any particular change, the more likely it is to go wrong.
Not only that, but by making changes small, you minimize the likelihood and severity of organizational opposition. And you also make it much more likely that changes stick.
This is true of climate change mitigation (and which is why Extinction Rebellion and the like are self defeating) and change inside organizations like the civil service.
The “good innings” and “lack of leadership” extract from Vallance’s diary shown to the Covid inquiry (see 3.05pm) also quotes Vallance quoting Dominic Cummings (DC), the PM’s chief adviser at the time, saying, “Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that’s okay.”
This was 25 October 2020. Sunak was chancellor at the time.
Vallance is deeply implicated in the conspiracy - for that is what it was - to silence debate around the possibility of “lab leak”. To make it socially impermissible to discuss. They did this to protect the poor virologists, and the future of science, and relations with China
He deserves zero respect
Rather like Cummings, whilst one may have limited respect for Vallance, that doesn't mean he hasn't got interesting things to say, or relevant notes from the time.
Incidentally, I had some rather tedious filing to do so listened to most of the 2-3 hour interview with Cummings someone posted yesterday. Fascinating - his analysis of the problems of Whitehall is spot on, but his only solution being to burn the system to the ground and run everything via super-bright young things recruited from startups seems rather less practical.
The one thing I've learned from many years of business is that revolutions are usually an absolute disaster. (I am often temped to short any company that trumpets anything as transformative.)
You get from A to B by a process of rapid, small iterations*.
And if something doesn't work, you reverse it.
Human beings are very bad at being able to foresee the results of actions. So the more you bundle into any particular change, the more likely it is to go wrong.
Not only that, but by making changes small, you minimize the likelihood and severity of organizational opposition. And you also make it much more likely that changes stick.
This is true of climate change mitigation (and which is why Extinction Rebellion and the like are self defeating) and change inside organizations like the civil service.
The “good innings” and “lack of leadership” extract from Vallance’s diary shown to the Covid inquiry (see 3.05pm) also quotes Vallance quoting Dominic Cummings (DC), the PM’s chief adviser at the time, saying, “Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that’s okay.”
This was 25 October 2020. Sunak was chancellor at the time.
Vallance is deeply implicated in the conspiracy - for that is what it was - to silence debate around the possibility of “lab leak”. To make it socially impermissible to discuss. They did this to protect the poor virologists, and the future of science, and relations with China
He deserves zero respect
Rather like Cummings, whilst one may have limited respect for Vallance, that doesn't mean he hasn't got interesting things to say, or relevant notes from the time.
Incidentally, I had some rather tedious filing to do so listened to most of the 2-3 hour interview with Cummings someone posted yesterday. Fascinating - his analysis of the problems of Whitehall is spot on, but his only solution being to burn the system to the ground and run everything via super-bright young things recruited from startups seems rather less practical.
The one thing I've learned from many years of business is that revolutions are usually an absolute disaster. (I am often temped to short any company that trumpets anything as transformative.)
You get from A to B by a process of rapid, small iterations*.
And if something doesn't work, you reverse it.
Human beings are very bad at being able to foresee the results of actions. So the more you bundle into any particular change, the more likely it is to go wrong.
Not only that, but by making changes small, you minimize the likelihood and severity of organizational opposition. And you also make it much more likely that changes stick.
This is true of climate change mitigation (and which is why Extinction Rebellion and the like are self defeating) and change inside organizations like the civil service.
The “good innings” and “lack of leadership” extract from Vallance’s diary shown to the Covid inquiry (see 3.05pm) also quotes Vallance quoting Dominic Cummings (DC), the PM’s chief adviser at the time, saying, “Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that’s okay.”
This was 25 October 2020. Sunak was chancellor at the time.
Vallance is deeply implicated in the conspiracy - for that is what it was - to silence debate around the possibility of “lab leak”. To make it socially impermissible to discuss. They did this to protect the poor virologists, and the future of science, and relations with China
He deserves zero respect
Rather like Cummings, whilst one may have limited respect for Vallance, that doesn't mean he hasn't got interesting things to say, or relevant notes from the time.
Incidentally, I had some rather tedious filing to do so listened to most of the 2-3 hour interview with Cummings someone posted yesterday. Fascinating - his analysis of the problems of Whitehall is spot on, but his only solution being to burn the system to the ground and run everything via super-bright young things recruited from startups seems rather less practical.
The one thing I've learned from many years of business is that revolutions are usually an absolute disaster. (I am often temped to short any company that trumpets anything as transformative.)
You get from A to B by a process of rapid, small iterations*.
And if something doesn't work, you reverse it.
Human beings are very bad at being able to foresee the results of actions. So the more you bundle into any particular change, the more likely it is to go wrong.
Not only that, but by making changes small, you minimize the likelihood and severity of organizational opposition. And you also make it much more likely that changes stick.
This is true of climate change mitigation (and which is why Extinction Rebellion and the like are self defeating) and change inside organizations like the civil service.
The characterisation of letting people die showing no leadership is incorrect. Not having another lockdown would have been the tough decision and would have been extremely brave of the government and it would have required extraordinary leadership to actually do it. In the end Boris chose the easy option and bankrupted the nation so that a few over 80s could extend their lives by another few months.
I suspect Max you are a couple of decades behind me, so were a much lower risk group than someone like myself who was then in my mid/late fifties, and at a reasonably high risk of succumbing to COVID had I caught the virus.
If it meant I survived the pandemic bring on bankrupting the country.
Of course, some of the braver members of our community who, now the panic is over are blase about lockdowns, barricaded themselves in a hermetically sealed basement in Penarth for the duration.
Edit. Of course Sunak was also a young man at the time. So it's no wonder he was quite comfortable to see old scumbags like me drop off the perch. With all due respect that is not "leadership".
The characterisation of letting people die showing no leadership is incorrect. Not having another lockdown would have been the tough decision and would have been extremely brave of the government and it would have required extraordinary leadership to actually do it. In the end Boris chose the easy option and bankrupted the nation so that a few over 80s could extend their lives by another few months.
I suspect Max you are a couple of decades behind me, so were a much lower risk group than someone like myself who was then in my mid/late fifties, and at a reasonably high risk of succumbing to COVID had I caught the virus.
If it meant I survived the pandemic bring on bankrupting the country.
Of course, some of the braver members of our community who, now the panic is over are blase about lockdowns, barricaded themselves in a hermetically sealed basement in Penarth for the duration.
Another pandemic is almost a certainty so we need a much better answer than that next time.
Bankrupting the country would also cost a huge number of lives and livelihoods.
We're still struggling with the fallout from the last one.
Hmm. I do find it quite shocking that Boris didn’t understand “doubling times”. That’s not advanced maths
But I wonder as to the veracity of Vallance’s report. It is bound to be self serving; he also comes across as quite pig-headed and unobservant - may simply have misread Bojo
There's a valuable aphorism along the lines of 'If you can't explain a concept successfully to a layman, you either don't understand it yourself, or you don't want them to understand it.'. Perhaps Vallance didn't understand the science himself, and that's why he failed to explain it.
The “good innings” and “lack of leadership” extract from Vallance’s diary shown to the Covid inquiry (see 3.05pm) also quotes Vallance quoting Dominic Cummings (DC), the PM’s chief adviser at the time, saying, “Rishi [Sunak] thinks just let people die and that’s okay.”
This was 25 October 2020. Sunak was chancellor at the time.
Vallance is deeply implicated in the conspiracy - for that is what it was - to silence debate around the possibility of “lab leak”. To make it socially impermissible to discuss. They did this to protect the poor virologists, and the future of science, and relations with China
He deserves zero respect
Rather like Cummings, whilst one may have limited respect for Vallance, that doesn't mean he hasn't got interesting things to say, or relevant notes from the time.
Incidentally, I had some rather tedious filing to do so listened to most of the 2-3 hour interview with Cummings someone posted yesterday. Fascinating - his analysis of the problems of Whitehall is spot on, but his only solution being to burn the system to the ground and run everything via super-bright young things recruited from startups seems rather less practical.
The one thing I've learned from many years of business is that revolutions are usually an absolute disaster. (I am often temped to short any company that trumpets anything as transformative.)
You get from A to B by a process of rapid, small iterations*.
And if something doesn't work, you reverse it.
Human beings are very bad at being able to foresee the results of actions. So the more you bundle into any particular change, the more likely it is to go wrong.
Not only that, but by making changes small, you minimize the likelihood and severity of organizational opposition. And you also make it much more likely that changes stick.
This is true of climate change mitigation (and which is why Extinction Rebellion and the like are self defeating) and change inside organizations like the civil service.
I'd be interested in the overlap between people who rated Boris Johnson and people with a Maths A level at B or above. Quite small I'd imagine.
*Raises hand*
But it depends what you mean by “rated”. He got the referendum won. He avoided a second referendum that would have been lost. He ensured a hard-ish Brexit. He turns out to have kept our lockdown as short as was ever going to be possible, albeit more by luck than judgement.
He was very useful.
And he's trashed the Tory brand for a generation meaning I'm happy too. A little something for everyone.
Edit: Well done on that Maths.
Ooo I’ll have some of your benefit too. Labour hasn’t quite got there, but my dream scenario was to Brexit and then vote for “Blue Labour” governments.
Mind too. I thought Boris’s govt was a bit like that, or maybe I just hoped it would be. Covid got in the way, so we will never know
If only Sir Keir wasn’t the arch second referendum chaser, as well as being an unlikeable liar, I’d love to vote for them again. Would feel like coming home. I had to ask my parents if they’d hate me if I voted Conservative in 2019.
Bring back Ed Miliband and Maurice Glasman!
Your 2nd ref point is strong and authentic. A committed leaver such as yourself is entitled to hold that grudge against SKS until their dying day.
But the point about lying, no, you don't really feel that. You can't feel that because as a Boris Johnson supporter you by definition have a high tolerance for mendacity in politics.
Seems strange, but the difference is that it was factored in with Boris - we knew he had form for lying, and that was the rough to his kind of devil may care smooth; he was a bounder and we knew it.
With Sir Keir, he has built a reputation as honest, loyal, quite pious in tone… but is as bigger liar in his political life as Boris. Aside from the leadership pledge lies & the Brexit snideyness, the ‘men can have a cervix’/oh no they can’t, the vegetarianism when he eats animals, the knighthood when he said he was a Republican; it’s all so… I can’t thinking the word… annoying! Just 100% the kind of person I don’t like in life
You talk of Boris as if you loved him and so could forgive all his foibles. That's what 'factored in' really means.
Comments
It is genuinely interesting that the crowd in every country polled now says: Lab Leak
Meanwhile the Lib Dems, who've not had any notable coverage or good news in recent days and were bricking it about the return of Dave, are rising across the board. 14% is one of the highest LD scores for some time. I think that may be a reaction to the Suella and stop the boats stuff, though that's just conjecture.
Ref down too. Weird polling. (perhaps just MoE)
If little Wilfred didn't have so many siblings, there would be a lot more in the pot for him.
I suppose him being the one that got Brexit over the line made him a bit of a hero of my cause, so I leapt to his defence when his haters saw everything he did through the prism of bitter hatred.
Policy wise he didn’t seem particularly right wing as PM; if it had been a Labour leader doing as he did I doubt many Centrist would have minded
As for A-Levels, a rather Corbyn-esque C & E for me, English Lit & Psychology
But I wonder if the appointment of Dave “solemn vow” Cameron has annoyed some Scots back to the Nats
Edit: Well done on that Maths.
Is that true? I do love the Russians - sometimes - with their darkness and cynicism
Quite an achievement for a sitting prime minister.
(Rishi: "I am standing up, actually!")
https://twitter.com/yuanyi_z/status/1726629176692883778
If only Sir Keir wasn’t the arch second referendum chaser, as well as being an unlikeable liar, I’d love to vote for them again. Would feel like coming home. I had to ask my parents if they’d hate me if I voted Conservative in 2019.
Bring back Ed Miliband and Maurice Glasman!
That’s going to be your epitaph
Here lieth @kg whatever. Some guy. He was on pb a bit
He initiated several discussions
Oh wait.
By the way LLG was 60% in 1997, 59% in 2001, 58.2% in 2005 and 53% in 2010. More stable than Lab or Tory shares.
The potential shift from Reform to Conservative is therefore 2%, not 7%.
A more prescient question is or are the 2019 Conservative voters who are Don't Knows at this time. That is where you should be targeting your activities not worrying about Reform.
Tonight's R&W poll splits the 2019 Conservative vote as 55% Conservative, 16% Don't Know, 12% Labour and 7% Reform. The last time I looked, 16 was a larger number than 7 - I suspect this is the grouping being targeted by Hunt and Sunak this week not those who are now backing Reform.
https://youtu.be/Pa5vsa1FLKY?si=YHNOteEk1KcCm7YO
He was sentenced in July 2022 to 17 years after a high-profile trial that reignited a national conversation in Russia about the lack of protections against domestic violence and law enforcement indifference to such cases. But then Pekhteleva’s bereaved mother, Oksana, received a photo of Kanyus — not in prison but in a military uniform surrounded by other Russian soldiers.
Her daughter’s murderer was pardoned by President Vladimir Putin in exchange for taking up arms in Ukraine."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/18/putin-pardon-criminals-murderer-ukraine/
If there is any good news in this grim story, I suppose it is that it shows how short Putin is of men willing to fight for him.
But I wonder as to the veracity of Vallance’s report. It is bound to be self serving; he also comes across as quite pig-headed and unobservant - may simply have misread Bojo
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/msg-sphere-stratford-plans-sadiq-khan-las-vegas-b1121565.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penal_military_unit
And it's not particularly about doing the maths. It's that it doesn't match our intuition, and everyone (even boffins) operate on intuition most of the time.
See the legend of the king, the rice and the chessboard. Or the riddle about lily pads and a pond.
You do of course recall my main PB pet hate. Barstewards using autism as a casual slur. I f*****' hate that.
But, yes other than that I try to keep my idiosyncrasies to myself.
Edit. Oh yes, and having been to a grammar school, I f****' hate grammar schools too.
And understanding weight change when linear measures change eg cat, human, elephant and explaining why fleas can jump high, cats don't break their legs when jumping boff a high wall, etc, etc
That’s all it is. There is no rule about staying on topic. PB would be unreadable if there was. The joy of this splendid forum is the ceaseless variety. The glory of the garden. And long may it remain so - and all credit to the moderators for keeping it diverse - and using such a light touch
An off topic comment will only “hijack a thread” if others find it engaging and diverting - so maybe you and @kjh could try that tactic and get your own back. Be engaging and diverting. It is, after all, always good to try new things?
Is it be natural green voters, priced out of Hackney? Or is it normal voters who don't have a collective memory of Labour Always Wins?
(There's something a bit similar further east. Some of Labour's best results in Havering were in the new build areas where there was less memory of the usual local madness.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnMY9y_iwlY
. . .
The committee said that in a “remarkable departure from typical practice,” it had to “enlist the assistance of the U.S. Marshals Service to personally serve the subpoenas” to the CEOs of Discord and X, formerly Twitter, after their chief executives “further refused to cooperate.”
The hearing is set to focus on child sexual exploitation online.'
(Other tech executives had already agreed to testify, however reluctantly, in this biapartisan investigation.)
Thank you for the invitation but I have no desire to hijack a thread. No one wants to read my s**** anyway.
P.S. I've fallen into your trap haven't I? I'm talking about you. Damn!
You have a firm view on the Israeli action in Gaza that you have shared repeatedly. I am sure your view is sincerely held and I respect it.
Is it not possible that Phillips also has a sincere view that is different to yours?
No, you assume that your view is the only possible view to hold and that Phillips must therefore be deliberately compromising her principles and kowtowing to bigots in her constituency.
Arrogance.
I've no idea of Phillips' motivations, but given bartholmew's own position he might well think less of her if she is sincere.
What I do need is sleep. My Gazette editor has emailed and they want 1200 words on Neolithic Khmer sex gizmos by noon tomorrow. So I must refresh my brain
Night night
Incidentally, I had some rather tedious filing to do so listened to most of the 2-3 hour interview with Cummings someone posted yesterday. Fascinating - his analysis of the problems of Whitehall is spot on, but his only solution being to burn the system to the ground and run everything via super-bright young things recruited from startups seems rather less practical.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1726641686309400988
Piracy using helicopters...
The ship is apparently Japanese-operated, British-owned. The hijackers claim it is Israeli...
But the point about lying, no, you don't really feel that. You can't feel that because as a Boris Johnson supporter you by definition have a high tolerance for mendacity in politics.
https://www.ox.ac.uk/admissions/undergraduate/courses/course-listing/philosophy-politics-and-economics
“This all feels like a complete lack of leadership.”
Edit: it is indeed him, if one of the comments is to be believed. He would have been 20 at the time. 30th November 1978.
With Sir Keir, he has built a reputation as honest, loyal, quite pious in tone… but is as bigger liar in his political life as Boris. Aside from the leadership pledge lies & the Brexit snideyness, the ‘men can have a cervix’/oh no they can’t, the vegetarianism when he eats animals, the knighthood when he said he was a Republican; it’s all so… I can’t thinking the word… annoying! Just 100% the kind of person I don’t like in life
You get from A to B by a process of rapid, small iterations*.
And if something doesn't work, you reverse it.
Human beings are very bad at being able to foresee the results of actions. So the more you bundle into any particular change, the more likely it is to go wrong.
Not only that, but by making changes small, you minimize the likelihood and severity of organizational opposition. And you also make it much more likely that changes stick.
This is true of climate change mitigation (and which is why Extinction Rebellion and the like are self defeating) and change inside organizations like the civil service.
* I hate to say it, but this is what SpaceX does.
But I confess I could have mis-remembered.
The Apartment wins hands down imho.
If it meant I survived the pandemic bring on bankrupting the country.
Of course, some of the braver members of our community who, now the panic is over are blase about lockdowns, barricaded themselves in a hermetically sealed basement in Penarth for the duration.
Edit. Of course Sunak was also a young man at the time. So it's no wonder he was quite comfortable to see old scumbags like me drop off the perch. With all due respect that is not "leadership".
Bankrupting the country would also cost a huge number of lives and livelihoods.
We're still struggling with the fallout from the last one.
Dont plan to do major economic speech on day Vallance rocks up at Covid gig to say Boris could not understand a basic graph.