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Have a good cry Argentina, you have earned it – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,156
    Poor old Rishi! How could he expect this with Suella now outside the tent?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,765

    A

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    So two politicians came to an agreement between themselves. One has ditched it - and the other politician. Because he can.

    Isn't that politics 101?
    I don't think any politicians would regard a handshake deal or even something on paper between two others as sacrosanct, if there's good enough reason for a change in position - and most of them probably assume there is, since the agree to whatever the new 'betrayal' position is as they are loyalists.

    But if there's no obvious reason why Sunak reneged, if he did, then it would make him look like a bullshitter, which doesn't help get MPs on board for any fresh moves. And even if he did have very good reasons or did not commit as much as Braverman thinks he did and she looks like a would be king maker overplaying her importance, there's a hard core of MPs, Members, Media, and voters, who are primed to hear it.

    So it's probably a net loss for him no matter what.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,215
    At least the Conservatives can console themselves that they’ve appointed a Common Sense Tsar


    😶
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,639

    Suella used to have a reputation as one of the nicest people in the Party. Perhaps she still is.

    Struggling to square with the latest view of "Cruella" and I suspect it's entirely performative.

    Having the same policy as the Social Democratic chancellor of Germany is "nasty" according to many.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,433

    A

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    So two politicians came to an agreement between themselves. One has ditched it - and the other politician. Because he can.

    Isn't that politics 101?
    Yes. Also politics 101 is that one of them took notes, and the other was too stupid to think that any of it would matter.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "PeoplePolling for GB News

    Lab 49%
    Con 19%
    Reform 11%
    LD 9%
    Green 7%"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1433390/thread

    ReformUK now just 1% behind the UKIP total Farage got in 2015 if that poll is correct and closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour.

    Sunak needs to shore up his right flank fast if that poll is correct (though it is Goodwin and the 19% PP has the Tories on now is still higher than the 14% PP had the Truss led Tories on on 20th October last year
    https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202210_GBN_W42_full.pdf#subsection*.12
    I am really struggling to give the benefit of doubt to that poll and indeed anything that People Polling produce. Their previous Labour net poll lead of 28% was an outlier in the midst of a whole series of other polls with Labour leads averaging in the region 20%. That's a huge house effect.

    One thing I do notice about People Polling is this. In their last published poll, apart from the standard likelihood to vote question and voting intention question, they published the results of support or opposition to just 4 other statements:
    - 'The government should limit the speed limit in built-up areas such as village and town centres from 30mph to 20mph. To what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose this speed limit reduction?’
    - ‘A transgender woman (i.e. somebody who was biologically male at birth but now identifies as a woman) is a woman’
    - ‘Thinking about immigration in Britain today, how well, if at all, do you think immigrants are integrating into wider Britain society?'
    - ‘Foreign nationals in Britain who glorify Islamist terrorism should be expelled from Britain’

    Basically, the questions are the sort of hard right talking points that feature on GB TV. With questions like this, if asked consistently, I think the panel will very quickly have become self selecting in a way that can't properly be adjusted for by weighting. A moderate Conservative from 2019 might well be put off by being asked such questions, and drop out of their panel. A 2019 Conservative who would have voted for the Brexit Party had they been standing would lap these questions up.

  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,138

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    I accept this poll may well be an outlier, but nonetheless it is objectively funny. Especially after the “greatest reshuffle in world history”


    Lab 49%
    Con 19%
    Reform 11%
    LD 9%
    Green 7%

    Chortle

    Apparently it was a GB poll by Goodwin of 2019 conservative voters
    Forgive me but I doubt that. if 49% of 2019 Con voters have gone to Lab then Con are not just dead but annihilated.
    I have no idea how valid it is as a poll and await polls from recognised pollsters
    They’re in the British Polling Council and I think that was regular poll rather than one of 2019 Con voters. See -

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    - where it is included as such
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,827
    Take a look at the DE front page .

    Suella is looking a bit weird . What film does that remind people of ?

    Here’s what I thought , one of the famous lines of the film little pigs, little pigs .....
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,765
    The simple position at moment is the Tories are currently a very long way behind, with a faltering economy, years of baggage, and they are internally divided over how to react - play it safe and protect the Blue Wall only, or try to be bolder and stake out a fresher direction.

    And simply sacking Braverman and appointing Cameron does not, in itself, actually commit to either strategy on its own, so I don't think they can even rely on a coherent message from the clique which is in charge, never mind Braverman rebels.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Argentina was a very wealthy country before 1931, it has a long history of ineffective, wasteful governments for most of the last 90 years, be they Peronist, Military or non Peronist. Inflation and defaults on loans have been a constant feature since the 1970s, The current crop of politicians could be regarded as knaves or fools, but they aren't killing off their fellow citizens by violent means, unlike their predecessors in the 1970s.

    The only consolation is that defeat in The Falklands War broke the military's hold on power.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "PeoplePolling for GB News

    Lab 49%
    Con 19%
    Reform 11%
    LD 9%
    Green 7%"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1433390/thread

    It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
    Ahahahahahaha

    A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
    Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
    I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of volatility in the Tory score in the next 2 weeks. Don’t forget we also have the Autumn statement next week which will be yet another day of conservatives in the news.

    I doubt the great British public have a settled view of this yet. What’s sure though is that if they go into yet another bout of open warfare they’re going to plummet.
    I am struggling to work out how the Autumn statement can bring any boost to Tory poll numbers.
    I don’t think it’ll shift their polling. I do think it’ll probably help along the longer term drift upwards in the blue wall and downwards in the red. It’s going to be very business focused statement.

    That’s if the party isn’t already in open warfare by then. But do they have the numbers for a VONC? Not sure.
    350 MPs currently have the Conservative whip so only 53 letters required for the 15% threshold to trigger a VONC.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    To my mind, the problem with much of the political right, in this country and in much of the rest of the world, is that they shout a lot, but are quite ineffectual in practice.

    That’s Suella Braverman. Over-promise, under-deliver.

    A much better strategy would be to talk moderate, and act right.

    “Walk softly, and carry a big stick.”

    But she quite persuasively explains in THE LETTER that she wanted to get things done but was constantly thwarted by number 10 and the civil service

    I can well believe that on Rwanda. Most of them will find Rwanda distasteful and cruel blah blah. Which is fine - that’s a moral choice - but if that is your opinion don’t simultaneously make “Rwanda” a policy

    My suspicion is that they wanted the credit for trying Rwanda, but they wanted to get knocked back, so they wouldn’t have to do it. Then they could go to the voters and say ooh look we tried vote for us to really do it next time!

    Then they would have done nothing. Again

    By contrast Braverman ACTUALLY wanted to do it
    This has been going on forever though

    My Enoch memory vault is a bit rusty, but there’s an interview with him in the early 70s where he says the exact same thing about Edward Heath’s government; that they wanted the credit for cutting immigration but weren’t prepared to actually do anything about it
    The public don't help, since they claim to want it and probably mean it, but it's not like they consistently punish those who do not deliver it, so I can see why politicians think noises would be enough most of the time.
    About five years ago, someone did a study here in the US.

    - Do you think immigration levels are too high?
    - Do you think too many low skilled immigrants come to the US?
    - Do you think there should be a clampdown on illegal immigration?

    And respondents typically answered yes, yes, yes.

    The question continued: for the following immigrants, do you think they should be allowed or denied a visa.

    And then they were given about 30 examples. And the majority of people who answered yes, yes, yes, then went on to approve more immigration cases than the rules allowed.

    And, indeed, this was even true of the illegal immigrants. Basically, on an individual level, people generally supported allowing those undocumented migrants who had worked, paid taxes, not been arrested etc., even while saying there should be a clampdown on illegal immigration.

  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,998
    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,646
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    To my mind, the problem with much of the political right, in this country and in much of the rest of the world, is that they shout a lot, but are quite ineffectual in practice.

    That’s Suella Braverman. Over-promise, under-deliver.

    A much better strategy would be to talk moderate, and act right.

    “Walk softly, and carry a big stick.”

    But she quite persuasively explains in THE LETTER that she wanted to get things done but was constantly thwarted by number 10 and the civil service

    I can well believe that on Rwanda. Most of them will find Rwanda distasteful and cruel blah blah. Which is fine - that’s a moral choice - but if that is your opinion don’t simultaneously make “Rwanda” a policy

    My suspicion is that they wanted the credit for trying Rwanda, but they wanted to get knocked back, so they wouldn’t have to do it. Then they could go to the voters and say ooh look we tried vote for us to really do it next time!

    Then they would have done nothing. Again

    By contrast Braverman ACTUALLY wanted to do it
    This has been going on forever though

    My Enoch memory vault is a bit rusty, but there’s an interview with him in the early 70s where he says the exact same thing about Edward Heath’s government; that they wanted the credit for cutting immigration but weren’t prepared to actually do anything about it
    The public don't help, since they claim to want it and probably mean it, but it's not like they consistently punish those who do not deliver it, so I can see why politicians think noises would be enough most of the time.
    It's also a problem of Populism. Simplistic solutions to complex problems just don't work very well, which is why a Bexit driven by anti-immigrant sentiment has led to the highest immigration rates of our history.

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,215

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake
  • Options
    Leon said:

    I can believe People Polling are skewed against the Tories (tho they might still be right). But more important is the movement. Tories down (and reform up?) which is what you’d expect if the reshuffle has bombed

    If we work on the basis that we can compare People Polling with themselves (so they're wrong but they're consistently wrong), the key number is the People Polling figure from Peak Trussterfuck; that was 14% on the 20 October 2022. So Sunak isn't quite plumbing those depths... yet.

    But (buffs nails), I've been saying for a while that Sunak's position, pre-reshuffle, was bad but also as good as it gets for the blue team. He was in a painful equilibrium between the just about loyal centre-rightist dads and RefUK-curious to his right. Any step one way would shed votes on the other side.
  • Options

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    GB News advertised a sensational poll for 9.00pm so I watched it and Goodwin said it was from 2019 conservative voters

    The comedy continued when the three panellists who discussed the poll dismissed it and were far from complimentary about Braverman and this on their own programme

    And for the benefit of doubt I do not watch GB News normally
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    nico679 said:

    Take a look at the DE front page .

    Suella is looking a bit weird . What film does that remind people of ?

    Here’s what I thought , one of the famous lines of the film little pigs, little pigs .....

    Well to be fair, she is a shining light for the hard right.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,646
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    To my mind, the problem with much of the political right, in this country and in much of the rest of the world, is that they shout a lot, but are quite ineffectual in practice.

    That’s Suella Braverman. Over-promise, under-deliver.

    A much better strategy would be to talk moderate, and act right.

    “Walk softly, and carry a big stick.”

    But she quite persuasively explains in THE LETTER that she wanted to get things done but was constantly thwarted by number 10 and the civil service

    I can well believe that on Rwanda. Most of them will find Rwanda distasteful and cruel blah blah. Which is fine - that’s a moral choice - but if that is your opinion don’t simultaneously make “Rwanda” a policy

    My suspicion is that they wanted the credit for trying Rwanda, but they wanted to get knocked back, so they wouldn’t have to do it. Then they could go to the voters and say ooh look we tried vote for us to really do it next time!

    Then they would have done nothing. Again

    By contrast Braverman ACTUALLY wanted to do it
    This has been going on forever though

    My Enoch memory vault is a bit rusty, but there’s an interview with him in the early 70s where he says the exact same thing about Edward Heath’s government; that they wanted the credit for cutting immigration but weren’t prepared to actually do anything about it
    The public don't help, since they claim to want it and probably mean it, but it's not like they consistently punish those who do not deliver it, so I can see why politicians think noises would be enough most of the time.
    About five years ago, someone did a study here in the US.

    - Do you think immigration levels are too high?
    - Do you think too many low skilled immigrants come to the US?
    - Do you think there should be a clampdown on illegal immigration?

    And respondents typically answered yes, yes, yes.

    The question continued: for the following immigrants, do you think they should be allowed or denied a visa.

    And then they were given about 30 examples. And the majority of people who answered yes, yes, yes, then went on to approve more immigration cases than the rules allowed.

    And, indeed, this was even true of the illegal immigrants. Basically, on an individual level, people generally supported allowing those undocumented migrants who had worked, paid taxes, not been arrested etc., even while saying there should be a clampdown on illegal immigration.

    I love this Texan poll:

    https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1724170438845080011?t=9VBzzPC0WMDZCAbuoDsLwA&s=19

    Among Texas Republicans - "Given that the border is wide open and the federal gov't is weaponized against conservatives, do you support a temporary shutdown to force Joe Biden to accept policies that reverse his border agenda?"

    Yes: 72%
    No: 17%

    CWS Research / Oct 9, 2023 / n=418

  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,618

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "PeoplePolling for GB News

    Lab 49%
    Con 19%
    Reform 11%
    LD 9%
    Green 7%"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1433390/thread

    It's only -2pp on the Tory score since the previous poll by that company, so not as bad as it looks at first glance.
    Ahahahahahaha

    A comment for the ages. Can the moderators preserve it in amber?
    Much as I'd love the Tory poll number to go through the floor, the latest Deltapoll conducted 10th-13th November shows a 4 point increase in Tory support. Admittedly, only 1 of the 3 days of polling will reflect Braverman's sacking & Cameron's appointment.
    I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of volatility in the Tory score in the next 2 weeks. Don’t forget we also have the Autumn statement next week which will be yet another day of conservatives in the news.

    I doubt the great British public have a settled view of this yet. What’s sure though is that if they go into yet another bout of open warfare they’re going to plummet.
    I am struggling to work out how the Autumn statement can bring any boost to Tory poll numbers.
    I don’t think it’ll shift their polling. I do think it’ll probably help along the longer term drift upwards in the blue wall and downwards in the red. It’s going to be very business focused statement.

    That’s if the party isn’t already in open warfare by then. But do they have the numbers for a VONC? Not sure.
    350 MPs currently have the Conservative whip so only 53 letters required for the 15% threshold to trigger a VONC.
    We saw with Boris that it’s harder to get there than you’d think. 53 votes is a lot, and it’s a proper act of regicide. There was more of a casus belli with Johnson and I arty gate (and Truss and the budget) than there is here, which is essentially a reshuffle that was unpopular with the right of the party. Is that enough? I think I’d want to see more MPs going public with letters first.

    I think Rishi would survive a VONC itself easily.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake
    Weren't you well and truly on the 'Boris must go' bandwagon towards the end?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake
    We have so many other and much more important things to focus on.
    Our economy
    Our productivity
    Our education system
    Our trade deficit
    Our propensity to consume rather than invest.
    Our infrastructure.

    Really, no serious government has time to waste on “woke” nonsense.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,998
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake

    Boo hoo. It’s all the fault of those nwasty leftie bullies. FFS.

    How could Braverman continue? She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edits. The PM had lost all control of her. Nailed on sacking, no choice.

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,639

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    If it's "dodgy" why is it a member of the British Polling Council?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,646
    CatMan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "PeoplePolling for GB News

    Lab 49%
    Con 19%
    Reform 11%
    LD 9%
    Green 7%"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1433390/thread

    Any other leader would be 40 points ahead
    It really is hard to credit that despite everything that they screw up, there are 19% of us who will vote for a pigs bladder on a stick, as long as it has a blue rosette.
  • Options
    Tonight:
    I have fixed the boy's Xbox.
    My Brother and Sister-in-Law have announced they are getting back together
    And the Tories are on NINETEEN percent

    Lets drink!
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    nico679 said:

    Take a look at the DE front page .

    Suella is looking a bit weird . What film does that remind people of ?

    Here’s what I thought , one of the famous lines of the film little pigs, little pigs .....

    Well to be fair, she is a shining light for the hard right.
    Ah the backing of a group of people who thought that Johnson and Truss were good choices, and the same chumps that seem to find the like of JRM amusing rather than repellent.

    I hope they do pull-off one last palace coup before the general election, as I for one would like to see just how badly the Tories might do in such a scenario.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,998
    edited November 2023

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    GB News advertised a sensational poll for 9.00pm so I watched it and Goodwin said it was from 2019 conservative voters

    The comedy continued when the three panellists who discussed the poll dismissed it and were far from complimentary about Braverman and this on their own programme

    And for the benefit of doubt I do not watch GB News normally
    I mean, if it’s a sample of 2019 voters (it isn’t), Rishi might as well call his pal Elon and jettison Central Office into space, while converting every Tory constituency office into hostels for homeless veterans. They won’t be needed for their current purpose again.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,215

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake
    Weren't you well and truly on the 'Boris must go' bandwagon towards the end?
    Yes I was. And looking back I think it was a mistake. I remember @HYUFD saying at the time: this is a terrible error, Boris is a proven winner, we will regret this. I suspect @HYUFD was correct. Tories should have butched it out
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,215

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake

    Boo hoo. It’s all the fault of those nwasty leftie bullies. FFS.

    How could Braverman continue? She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edits. The PM had lost all control of her. Nailed on sacking, no choice.

    I’m not blaming the left! I’m specifically blaming the Tories and the right for being a bunch of pussies
  • Options

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    GB News advertised a sensational poll for 9.00pm so I watched it and Goodwin said it was from 2019 conservative voters

    The comedy continued when the three panellists who discussed the poll dismissed it and were far from complimentary about Braverman and this on their own programme

    And for the benefit of doubt I do not watch GB News normally
    I mean, if it’s a sample of 2019 voters (it isn’t), Rishi might as well call his pal Elon and jettison Central Office into space, while converting every constituency office into hostels for homeless veterans. They won’t be needed for their current purpose again.
    Goodwin said it was 2019 conservative voters
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,215
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake
    We have so many other and much more important things to focus on.
    Our economy
    Our productivity
    Our education system
    Our trade deficit
    Our propensity to consume rather than invest.
    Our infrastructure.

    Really, no serious government has time to waste on “woke” nonsense.
    Yeah well you were in favour of this disastrous reshuffle. Well done
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake
    Weren't you well and truly on the 'Boris must go' bandwagon towards the end?
    Yes I was. And looking back I think it was a mistake. I remember @HYUFD saying at the time: this is a terrible error, Boris is a proven winner, we will regret this. I suspect @HYUFD was correct. Tories should have butched it out
    But then he'd have been suspended, recalled and ejected by the Uxbridge voters (ULEZ or no ULEZ).

    Boris fucked himself over.
  • Options
    nico679 said:

    Take a look at the DE front page .

    Suella is looking a bit weird . What film does that remind people of ?

    Here’s what I thought , one of the famous lines of the film little pigs, little pigs .....

    Suella's actual letter was this:

    Dear Rishi

    All work and no play makes Suella a dull girl
    All work and no play makes Suella a dull girl
    All work and no play makes Suella a dull girl
    All work and no play makes Suella a dull girl


    All work and no play
    makes Suella a dull girl
    All work and no play
    makes Suella a dull girl
    All work and no play
    makes Suella a dull girl
    All work and no play
    makes Suella a dull girl

    All work
    and no play makes Suella a dull girl
    All work
    and no play makes Suella a dull girl
    All work
    and no play makes Suella a dull girl
    All work
    and no play makes Suella a dull girl

    Yours,

    Suella
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,998
    edited November 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    If it's "dodgy" why is it a member of the British Polling Council?
    Who knows?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake

    Boo hoo. It’s all the fault of those nwasty leftie bullies. FFS.

    How could Braverman continue? She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edits. The PM had lost all control of her. Nailed on sacking, no choice.

    Suella was definitely trying to get sacked at the end.

    She wants to be next Conservative leader, and that means she wants to be untainted by electoral defeat, and to be the standard bearer of the right.

    Hence the letter. Hence her behaviour.

    The idea that she is uniquely principled is for the birds.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    GB News advertised a sensational poll for 9.00pm so I watched it and Goodwin said it was from 2019 conservative voters

    The comedy continued when the three panellists who discussed the poll dismissed it and were far from complimentary about Braverman and this on their own programme

    And for the benefit of doubt I do not watch GB News normally
    I mean, if it’s a sample of 2019 voters (it isn’t), Rishi might as well call his pal Elon and jettison Central Office into space, while converting every Tory constituency office into hostels for homeless veterans. They won’t be needed for their current purpose again.
    Indeed. If the Tories can only count on 19% of their 2019 voters they are down to Green Party levels of support.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2023
    This just about sums things up at the moment,

    https://x.com/CrimeLdn/status/1724528616099250668?s=20

    And the icing on the cake is the last little bit.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,639
    Canadian Tories got 16% in 1993 and won 2 seats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,215
    “I’m not convinced by this poll. But I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a general dip in Tory support across the board. The reshuffle makes no political sense”

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1724555143549432036?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    It has completely unravelled. In one day
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,953

    How could Braverman continue? She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edits. The PM had lost all control of her. Nailed on sacking, no choice.

    As noted elsewhere, she has smashed a bottle on the bar and is now telling everyone to come and have a fucking go if they think they're hard enough.

    Full on Begbie...
  • Options
    On a point of order, can the Tories hold off imploding for just a little bit longer? I'd actually like to have a go at doing this running for parliament thing properly. So I need to actually complete the short list of one selection process, do candidates training / networking etc first.

    Then again, naah. This is genuinely hilarious.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake
    We have so many other and much more important things to focus on.
    Our economy
    Our productivity
    Our education system
    Our trade deficit
    Our propensity to consume rather than invest.
    Our infrastructure.

    Really, no serious government has time to waste on “woke” nonsense.
    Yeah well you were in favour of this disastrous reshuffle. Well done
    Not sure that I can claim credit for it but I welcome the second sacking of someone who never should have been appointed to such an important office. It does Rishi no credit that he thought otherwise for a year.
  • Options
    On a point of order
    Leon said:

    “I’m not convinced by this poll. But I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a general dip in Tory support across the board. The reshuffle makes no political sense”

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1724555143549432036?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    It has completely unravelled. In one day

    It hasn't unravelled for Braverman...
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake

    Boo hoo. It’s all the fault of those nwasty leftie bullies. FFS.

    How could Braverman continue? She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edits. The PM had lost all control of her. Nailed on sacking, no choice.

    Suella was definitely trying to get sacked at the end.

    She wants to be next Conservative leader, and that means she wants to be untainted by electoral defeat, and to be the standard bearer of the right.

    Hence the letter. Hence her behaviour.

    The idea that she is uniquely principled is for the birds.
    When you have a minister who is not speaking for the silent majority, but simply being wilfully offensive, she has to go.

    Simple as.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    “I’m not convinced by this poll. But I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a general dip in Tory support across the board. The reshuffle makes no political sense”

    https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1724555143549432036?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    It has completely unravelled. In one day

    Set a fucking course, and stick with that fucking course.

    Even if that course is crazy, it works better than this. What you cannot do is confuse people. That's deadly.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671
    So, Tory boost from sacking Braverman and bringing back Dave seems to have lasted about 36 hours.

    Oh what fun.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,819
    nico679 said:

    Take a look at the DE front page .

    Suella is looking a bit weird . What film does that remind people of ?

    Here’s what I thought , one of the famous lines of the film little pigs, little pigs .....

    DE and DM both making Sue-Ellen look like she's had a long weekend on the booze and JR is about to have committed to a drying out clinic for the 50th time.

    Not helpful to Team Sue...
  • Options
    MuesliMuesli Posts: 91

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    I miss @StuartDickson! That guy was hilarious.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,433

    Andy_JS said:

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    If it's "dodgy" why is it a member of the British Polling Council?
    Who knows?
    We know People Polling tends to give high RefUK scores, and perhaps lower Tory ones. Providing they haven't changed their methodology, this polls tells us that the Tories have slipped two points from where they were. That's a valid contribution to the debate and I don't know why everyone is rubbishing the pollster - aren't we meant not to do that? I've been admonished for it before.
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,202
    I would have though the reason for Cameron coming in when you plan to have another round of negotiations with the EU to smooth out the relationship a bit more is fairly obvious.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,433

    So, Tory boost from sacking Braverman and bringing back Dave seems to have lasted about 36 hours.

    Oh what fun.

    What boost? PB's jubilant Cameron fanbase is not the UK.
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    How could Braverman continue? She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edits. The PM had lost all control of her. Nailed on sacking, no choice.

    As noted elsewhere, she has smashed a bottle on the bar and is now telling everyone to come and have a fucking go if they think they're hard enough.

    Full on Begbie...
    Begbie ends up in prison.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,998

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    GB News advertised a sensational poll for 9.00pm so I watched it and Goodwin said it was from 2019 conservative voters

    The comedy continued when the three panellists who discussed the poll dismissed it and were far from complimentary about Braverman and this on their own programme

    And for the benefit of doubt I do not watch GB News normally
    I mean, if it’s a sample of 2019 voters (it isn’t), Rishi might as well call his pal Elon and jettison Central Office into space, while converting every Tory constituency office into hostels for homeless veterans. They won’t be needed for their current purpose again.
    Indeed. If the Tories can only count on 19% of their 2019 voters they are down to Green Party levels of support.
    Entertaining but sadly
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake

    Boo hoo. It’s all the fault of those nwasty leftie bullies. FFS.

    How could Braverman continue? She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edits. The PM had lost all control of her. Nailed on sacking, no choice.

    Suella was definitely trying to get sacked at the end.

    She wants to be next Conservative leader, and that means she wants to be untainted by electoral defeat, and to be the standard bearer of the right.

    Hence the letter. Hence her behaviour.

    The idea that she is uniquely principled is for the birds.
    When you have a minister who is not speaking for the silent majority, but simply being wilfully offensive, she has to go.

    Simple as.
    Exactly. Even on a basic technocratic level, it’s impossible to run a government when the Home Secretary is doing what the hell she likes in the face of Downing Street’s input. No choice but to sack her regardless of what you think of her views.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,671

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    GB News advertised a sensational poll for 9.00pm so I watched it and Goodwin said it was from 2019 conservative voters

    The comedy continued when the three panellists who discussed the poll dismissed it and were far from complimentary about Braverman and this on their own programme

    And for the benefit of doubt I do not watch GB News normally
    I mean, if it’s a sample of 2019 voters (it isn’t), Rishi might as well call his pal Elon and jettison Central Office into space, while converting every Tory constituency office into hostels for homeless veterans. They won’t be needed for their current purpose again.
    Indeed. If the Tories can only count on 19% of their 2019 voters they are down to Green Party levels of support.
    Entertaining but sadly
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake

    Boo hoo. It’s all the fault of those nwasty leftie bullies. FFS.

    How could Braverman continue? She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edits. The PM had lost all control of her. Nailed on sacking, no choice.

    Suella was definitely trying to get sacked at the end.

    She wants to be next Conservative leader, and that means she wants to be untainted by electoral defeat, and to be the standard bearer of the right.

    Hence the letter. Hence her behaviour.

    The idea that she is uniquely principled is for the birds.
    When you have a minister who is not speaking for the silent majority, but simply being wilfully offensive, she has to go.

    Simple as.
    Exactly. Even on a basic technocratic level, it’s impossible to run a government when the Home Secretary is doing what the hell she likes in the face of Downing Street’s input. No choice but to sack her regardless of what you think of her views.
    That's what she was counting on, of course. She was probably surprised at how long it took to be sacked.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,819
    Andy_JS said:

    Canadian Tories got 16% in 1993 and won 2 seats.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election

    Difference is our Reform Party won't be replacing our Conservatives any time soon.

    That said, clearly the Tories are heading for one hell of a shellacking if they carry on like they are...
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,620
    .
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake
    Boo hoo. It’s all the fault of those nwasty leftie bullies. FFS.

    How could Braverman continue? She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edits. The PM had lost all control of her. Nailed on sacking, no choice.

    Suella was definitely trying to get sacked at the end.

    She wants to be next Conservative leader, and that means she wants to be untainted by electoral defeat, and to be the standard bearer of the right.

    Hence the letter. Hence her behaviour.

    The idea that she is uniquely principled is for the birds.
    Not even uniquely unprincipled.

    She does seem rather more suited to US, rather than UK right wing politics.
    (Which may be where her Twitter views are coming from ?)
  • Options
    250 000 people have gathered in Washington D.C. to show their support for Israel
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,337
    DougSeal said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    I accept this poll may well be an outlier, but nonetheless it is objectively funny. Especially after the “greatest reshuffle in world history”


    Lab 49%
    Con 19%
    Reform 11%
    LD 9%
    Green 7%

    Chortle

    Apparently it was a GB poll by Goodwin of 2019 conservative voters
    Forgive me but I doubt that. if 49% of 2019 Con voters have gone to Lab then Con are not just dead but annihilated.
    I have no idea how valid it is as a poll and await polls from recognised pollsters
    They’re in the British Polling Council and I think that was regular poll rather than one of 2019 Con voters. See -

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    - where it is included as such
    Mm. But their previous poll had Lab 49 Con 21. It's an amusing poll but I expect we'll be back to "only" 20-point leads soon.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,288
    A reminder that US polls are all over the place - this time Kennedy helps Trump. Rasmussen (8-12 Nov):

    Biden 46
    Trump 42

    Trump 39
    Biden 38
    Kennedy 12

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,433
    Yokes said:

    I would have though the reason for Cameron coming in when you plan to have another round of negotiations with the EU to smooth out the relationship a bit more is fairly obvious.

    What negotiations is he going to do in the year or less we have left of this shambles of a Government?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,646
    Yokes said:

    I would have though the reason for Cameron coming in when you plan to have another round of negotiations with the EU to smooth out the relationship a bit more is fairly obvious.

    Yeah, because his last negotiation with Europe went so well...
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,998

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    GB News advertised a sensational poll for 9.00pm so I watched it and Goodwin said it was from 2019 conservative voters

    The comedy continued when the three panellists who discussed the poll dismissed it and were far from complimentary about Braverman and this on their own programme

    And for the benefit of doubt I do not watch GB News normally
    I mean, if it’s a sample of 2019 voters (it isn’t), Rishi might as well call his pal Elon and jettison Central Office into space, while converting every Tory constituency office into hostels for homeless veterans. They won’t be needed for their current purpose again.
    Indeed. If the Tories can only count on 19% of their 2019 voters they are down to Green Party levels of support.
    Entertaining but sadly

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    GB News advertised a sensational poll for 9.00pm so I watched it and Goodwin said it was from 2019 conservative voters

    The comedy continued when the three panellists who discussed the poll dismissed it and were far from complimentary about Braverman and this on their own programme

    And for the benefit of doubt I do not watch GB News normally
    I mean, if it’s a sample of 2019 voters (it isn’t), Rishi might as well call his pal Elon and jettison Central Office into space, while converting every Tory constituency office into hostels for homeless veterans. They won’t be needed for their current purpose again.
    Indeed. If the Tories can only count on 19% of their 2019 voters they are down to Green Party levels of support.
    Entertaining but sadly
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake

    Boo hoo. It’s all the fault of those nwasty leftie bullies. FFS.

    How could Braverman continue? She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edits. The PM had lost all control of her. Nailed on sacking, no choice.

    Suella was definitely trying to get sacked at the end.

    She wants to be next Conservative leader, and that means she wants to be untainted by electoral defeat, and to be the standard bearer of the right.

    Hence the letter. Hence her behaviour.

    The idea that she is uniquely principled is for the birds.
    When you have a minister who is not speaking for the silent majority, but simply being wilfully offensive, she has to go.

    Simple as.
    Exactly. Even on a basic technocratic level, it’s impossible to run a government when the Home Secretary is doing what the hell she likes in the face of Downing Street’s input. No choice but to sack her regardless of what you think of her views.
    That's what she was counting on, of course. She was probably surprised at how long it took to be sacked.
    Lol. Fair point. It did take longer than it should have. Indeed appointing her in the first place was the act of a prize bell end.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    That's what she was counting on, of course. She was probably surprised at how long it took to be sacked.

    She's really angry she was sacked, even though most of last week the press were endlessly saying "she must be doing this to get sacked". This is manufactured by Braverman for her benefit and nothing else.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,646
    edited November 2023

    250 000 people have gathered in Washington D.C. to show their support for Israel

    USPolling shows that voters think the US spends too much supporting Israel.


  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,998

    DougSeal said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    I accept this poll may well be an outlier, but nonetheless it is objectively funny. Especially after the “greatest reshuffle in world history”


    Lab 49%
    Con 19%
    Reform 11%
    LD 9%
    Green 7%

    Chortle

    Apparently it was a GB poll by Goodwin of 2019 conservative voters
    Forgive me but I doubt that. if 49% of 2019 Con voters have gone to Lab then Con are not just dead but annihilated.
    I have no idea how valid it is as a poll and await polls from recognised pollsters
    They’re in the British Polling Council and I think that was regular poll rather than one of 2019 Con voters. See -

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    - where it is included as such
    Mm. But their previous poll had Lab 49 Con 21. It's an amusing poll but I expect we'll be back to "only" 20-point leads soon.
    Although probably not with Goodwin, whose polls seem to skew away from the Tories and towards Reform to an almost unbelievable extent. Conspiracy theorists should keep their counsel.
  • Options
    Braverman to resign as MP and fight 'who runs Britain?' by-election campaign for new National Conservatively Popularisty party?

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake
    Weren't you well and truly on the 'Boris must go' bandwagon towards the end?
    Yes I was. And looking back I think it was a mistake. I remember @HYUFD saying at the time: this is a terrible error, Boris is a proven
    winner, we will regret this. I suspect @HYUFD was correct. Tories should have butched it out

    100%

    Especially as the Conservatives, as Boris said in his victory speech, had won the majority on the back of ‘loaned’ votes from people who were not natural Tories.
  • Options

    Robert Reich
    @RBReich
    ·
    36m
    Trump and his allies are preparing for a truly unprecedented power grab if he gets a second term.

    The plan involves installing 50,000+ pre-vetted Trump loyalists across government.

    They'll do anything they can to centralize and expand his power.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,433


    Robert Reich
    @RBReich
    ·
    36m
    Trump and his allies are preparing for a truly unprecedented power grab if he gets a second term.

    The plan involves installing 50,000+ pre-vetted Trump loyalists across government.

    They'll do anything they can to centralize and expand his power.

    IE exactly what every new President coming into power in the US does?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited November 2023


    Robert Reich
    @RBReich
    ·
    36m
    Trump and his allies are preparing for a truly unprecedented power grab if he gets a second term.

    The plan involves installing 50,000+ pre-vetted Trump loyalists across government.

    They'll do anything they can to centralize and expand his power.

    Given how last time he struggled to get people to fill even the jobs with prestige, often going months without people in place, I somehow doubt this giant conspiracy. And don't all new president hire vast numbers of people, that is how it works in the US, compared to here where there are lots of position that you have to be an elected official etc.
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,202
    Foxy said:

    Yokes said:

    I would have though the reason for Cameron coming in when you plan to have another round of negotiations with the EU to smooth out the relationship a bit more is fairly obvious.

    Yeah, because his last negotiation with Europe went so well...
    It dont matter what was, it matters what is and I would assume Cameron's general stature may well be seen as useful both there and other bilaterals. I suspect Sunak may be about to roll the dice on trying to pull a more co-operative relationship with the EU in advance of the election whilst trying to shoo along other trade deals. It may come to nothing but it is also shot to nothing at this stage.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,215
    Ouch. Front page of the Times. I wonder if Sunak is in danger?





    “PM lied to me and betrayed Britain”. Screaming headline

    It’s all a bit weird seeing as this comes right after “the greatest reshuffle in the history of the solar system”
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,620
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake
    Weren't you well and truly on the 'Boris must go' bandwagon towards the end?
    Yes I was. And looking back I think it was a mistake. I remember @HYUFD saying at the time: this is a terrible error, Boris is a proven
    winner, we will regret this. I suspect @HYUFD was correct. Tories should have butched it out

    100%

    Especially as the Conservatives, as Boris said in his victory speech, had won the majority on the back of ‘loaned’ votes from people who were not natural Tories.
    The votes were loaned to do Brexit.
    It’s done, and the majority aren’t even grateful. And there was no plan beyond that.

    Boris, in or out of office, would be largely irrelevant now either way.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,215

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    GB News advertised a sensational poll for 9.00pm so I watched it and Goodwin said it was from 2019 conservative voters

    The comedy continued when the three panellists who discussed the poll dismissed it and were far from complimentary about Braverman and this on their own programme

    And for the benefit of doubt I do not watch GB News normally
    I mean, if it’s a sample of 2019 voters (it isn’t), Rishi might as well call his pal Elon and jettison Central Office into space, while converting every Tory constituency office into hostels for homeless veterans. They won’t be needed for their current purpose again.
    Indeed. If the Tories can only count on 19% of their 2019 voters they are down to Green Party levels of support.
    Entertaining but sadly
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake

    Boo hoo. It’s all the fault of those nwasty leftie bullies. FFS.

    How could Braverman continue? She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edits. The PM had lost all control of her. Nailed on sacking, no choice.

    Suella was definitely trying to get sacked at the end.

    She wants to be next Conservative leader, and that means she wants to be untainted by electoral defeat, and to be the standard bearer of the right.

    Hence the letter. Hence her behaviour.

    The idea that she is uniquely principled is for the birds.
    When you have a minister who is not speaking for the silent majority, but simply being wilfully offensive, she has to go.

    Simple as.
    Exactly. Even on a basic technocratic level, it’s impossible to run a government when the Home Secretary is doing what the hell she likes in the face of Downing Street’s input. No choice but to sack her regardless of what you think of her views.
    Nah. Keep her in the tent. Say she is our attack dog

    Just grow a pair and ignore liberal media
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,819

    Braverman to resign as MP and fight 'who runs Britain?' by-election campaign for new National Conservatively Popularisty party?

    No, but with a bit of luck she might fuck off to Reform...
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,639
    Leon said:

    Ouch. Front page of the Times. I wonder if Sunak is in danger?





    “PM lied to me and betrayed Britain”. Screaming headline

    It’s all a bit weird seeing as this comes right after “the greatest reshuffle in the history of the solar system”

    He is if we continue to see polls with the Tories on 19%. Undoubtedly.
  • Options

    Second World War tweets from 1939
    @RealTimeWWII
    ·
    1m
    Nazis have set fire to the Great Synagogue of Łódź, burning one of largest Jewish buildings in German-occupied Poland to the ground.

    ===

    Plus ca change
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,646
    Leon said:

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    GB News advertised a sensational poll for 9.00pm so I watched it and Goodwin said it was from 2019 conservative voters

    The comedy continued when the three panellists who discussed the poll dismissed it and were far from complimentary about Braverman and this on their own programme

    And for the benefit of doubt I do not watch GB News normally
    I mean, if it’s a sample of 2019 voters (it isn’t), Rishi might as well call his pal Elon and jettison Central Office into space, while converting every Tory constituency office into hostels for homeless veterans. They won’t be needed for their current purpose again.
    Indeed. If the Tories can only count on 19% of their 2019 voters they are down to Green Party levels of support.
    Entertaining but sadly
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake

    Boo hoo. It’s all the fault of those nwasty leftie bullies. FFS.

    How could Braverman continue? She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edits. The PM had lost all control of her. Nailed on sacking, no choice.

    Suella was definitely trying to get sacked at the end.

    She wants to be next Conservative leader, and that means she wants to be untainted by electoral defeat, and to be the standard bearer of the right.

    Hence the letter. Hence her behaviour.

    The idea that she is uniquely principled is for the birds.
    When you have a minister who is not speaking for the silent majority, but simply being wilfully offensive, she has to go.

    Simple as.
    Exactly. Even on a basic technocratic level, it’s impossible to run a government when the Home Secretary is doing what the hell she likes in the face of Downing Street’s input. No choice but to sack her regardless of what you think of her views.
    Nah. Keep her in the tent. Say she is our attack dog

    Just grow a pair and ignore liberal media
    Who wants to share a tent with an attack dog?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,620
    Anyway, as distraction, here’s an idea for Leon’s next set of trips.

    Shock of the old: eight abandoned and appalling theme parks
    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2023/nov/14/shock-of-the-old-eight-abandoned-and-appalling-theme-parks

    Sadly, Gulliver’s Kingdom, which looks spectacularly creepy, has been demolished. Would definitely have been on my Japan list otherwise.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,433
    Leon said:

    Ouch. Front page of the Times. I wonder if Sunak is in danger?





    “PM lied to me and betrayed Britain”. Screaming headline

    It’s all a bit weird seeing as this comes right after “the greatest reshuffle in the history of the solar system”

    The Times (Murdochs) has noticeably turned on Sunak recently. I have always identified the Sunak/Gove/Badenoch nexus very closely with the Murdoch media, so I'm not sure who they're going for now - Starmer perhaps.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,639
    Muesli said:

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    I miss @StuartDickson! That guy was hilarious.
    Did Stuart depart because Humza Yousef became leader?
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Ouch. Front page of the Times. I wonder if Sunak is in danger?





    “PM lied to me and betrayed Britain”. Screaming headline

    It’s all a bit weird seeing as this comes right after “the greatest reshuffle in the history of the solar system”

    I suspect Uncle Rupe doesn't really give a fig about Suella and has given up on the Tories. This is now about doing everything he can to help Sir Keir.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,620


    Robert Reich
    @RBReich
    ·
    36m
    Trump and his allies are preparing for a truly unprecedented power grab if he gets a second term.

    The plan involves installing 50,000+ pre-vetted Trump loyalists across government.

    They'll do anything they can to centralize and expand his power.

    IE exactly what every new President coming into power in the US does?
    Really ?
    Please give a few precedents.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,215
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Ouch. Front page of the Times. I wonder if Sunak is in danger?





    “PM lied to me and betrayed Britain”. Screaming headline

    It’s all a bit weird seeing as this comes right after “the greatest reshuffle in the history of the solar system”

    He is if we continue to see polls with the Tories on 19%. Undoubtedly.
    I am not sure I have ever seen a Times headline as hostile to a Tory PM as that one. Accusing him - via Braverman - of “betraying Britain”

    That’s pretty devastating. But still they should get the massive Cameron boost soon as literally two PBers swing back from the Lib Dem’s because of the most brilliant reshuffle since God purged Satan
  • Options

    Leon said:

    Ouch. Front page of the Times. I wonder if Sunak is in danger?





    “PM lied to me and betrayed Britain”. Screaming headline

    It’s all a bit weird seeing as this comes right after “the greatest reshuffle in the history of the solar system”

    The Times (Murdochs) has noticeably turned on Sunak recently. I have always identified the Sunak/Gove/Badenoch nexus very closely with the Murdoch media, so I'm not sure who they're going for now - Starmer perhaps.
    Definitely Starmer I would say. In the meantime, as with Major, this is now all about grinding the Tories into the dirt.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,215
    Yokes said:

    Foxy said:

    Yokes said:

    I would have though the reason for Cameron coming in when you plan to have another round of negotiations with the EU to smooth out the relationship a bit more is fairly obvious.

    Yeah, because his last negotiation with Europe went so well...
    It dont matter what was, it matters what is and I would assume Cameron's general stature may well be seen as useful both there and other bilaterals. I suspect Sunak may be about to roll the dice on trying to pull a more co-operative relationship with the EU in advance of the election whilst trying to shoo along other trade deals. It may come to nothing but it is also shot to nothing at this stage.
    lol
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,819

    Leon said:

    Ouch. Front page of the Times. I wonder if Sunak is in danger?





    “PM lied to me and betrayed Britain”. Screaming headline

    It’s all a bit weird seeing as this comes right after “the greatest reshuffle in the history of the solar system”

    The Times (Murdochs) has noticeably turned on Sunak recently. I have always identified the Sunak/Gove/Badenoch nexus very closely with the Murdoch media, so I'm not sure who they're going for now - Starmer perhaps.
    They'll go with Kier (with caveats obviously) as they know the games up for Con and Rupert never backs a loser.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,646
    edited November 2023

    Leon said:

    Ouch. Front page of the Times. I wonder if Sunak is in danger?





    “PM lied to me and betrayed Britain”. Screaming headline

    It’s all a bit weird seeing as this comes right after “the greatest reshuffle in the history of the solar system”

    I suspect Uncle Rupe doesn't really give a fig about Suella and has given up on the Tories. This is now about doing everything he can to help Sir Keir.
    Rupes knows where his interests lie, he always backs the winner.
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,505
    Two quote remarks: It was Bill Clinton who originated -- or at least popularized - the "safe, legal, and rare" line. It struck me at the time as brilliant, politically, and so I have been surprised that so few Democratic politicians have used it, since.

    (Whenever I see a man advocating unrestricted abortion I wonder whether they are doing so for what one might call Hugh Hefner reasons. Hefner was, as everyone should know, a big supporter of abortion.)

    It was Teddy Roosevelt who used the "Speak softly and carry a big stick" line -- although I can't say he was famous for speaking softly. He did win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for mediating talks between Japan and Russia.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,998

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    GB News advertised a sensational poll for 9.00pm so I watched it and Goodwin said it was from 2019 conservative voters

    The comedy continued when the three panellists who discussed the poll dismissed it and were far from complimentary about Braverman and this on their own programme

    And for the benefit of doubt I do not watch GB News normally
    I mean, if it’s a sample of 2019 voters (it isn’t), Rishi might as well call his pal Elon and jettison Central Office into space, while converting every Tory constituency office into hostels for homeless veterans. They won’t be needed for their current purpose again.
    Indeed. If the Tories can only count on 19% of their 2019 voters they are down to Green Party levels of support.
    Entertaining but sadly
    Leon said:

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    GB News advertised a sensational poll for 9.00pm so I watched it and Goodwin said it was from 2019 conservative voters

    The comedy continued when the three panellists who discussed the poll dismissed it and were far from complimentary about Braverman and this on their own programme

    And for the benefit of doubt I do not watch GB News normally
    I mean, if it’s a sample of 2019 voters (it isn’t), Rishi might as well call his pal Elon and jettison Central Office into space, while converting every Tory constituency office into hostels for homeless veterans. They won’t be needed for their current purpose again.
    Indeed. If the Tories can only count on 19% of their 2019 voters they are down to Green Party levels of support.
    Entertaining but sadly
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:



    Scott_xP said:

    @alexwickham

    NEW: Suella Braverman has in her possession physical documents that show Rishi Sunak reneged on a deal with her to make him leader, sources say

    — they may become public in the coming days along with further revelations about the PM’s record on migration

    I have in my hand a piece of paper…

    Suella who?
    Has Sunak's camp actually denied they had a deal yet? I'd have thought the potential hit to his internal authority would be whether his word can be trusted, not whether they put his word down on paper.

    Obviously if they are denying there was a deal then written proof is more impactful.
    No, they explicitly did not deny it. So it sounds like there may be some extant proof

    Which js really dangerous for Sunak
    is it?

    How many swing voters could give a f whether Braverman has a gravy stained bit of paper saying the boss promised she could be even more horrible than she was?

    They just see division and chaos.

    Thing is, people like you hate Braverman. And you always would and always will (which is fine, of course). But you’re never going to vote Tory anyway, so they really shouldn’t care what you think

    Trouble is they often act like they do. They allowed the left to bully them into dumping Boris (of course, Boris didn’t help, he was a twat) and now they’ve allowed the left to bully them into dumping Braverman - who was a totemic figure for many on the right of the the party

    So now they’re going to lose votes on the right and I really doubt Braverman haters will now say “ok, now I like the Tories again because Suella has gone, yay, vote for Sunak”

    The party is weak. It is pitiful. It needs a leader who will just tell the woke and the left to jump in a lake

    Boo hoo. It’s all the fault of those nwasty leftie bullies. FFS.

    How could Braverman continue? She had gone postal. Completely rogue. Sending articles into the papers and refusing Downing Street’s edits. The PM had lost all control of her. Nailed on sacking, no choice.

    Suella was definitely trying to get sacked at the end.

    She wants to be next Conservative leader, and that means she wants to be untainted by electoral defeat, and to be the standard bearer of the right.

    Hence the letter. Hence her behaviour.

    The idea that she is uniquely principled is for the birds.
    When you have a minister who is not speaking for the silent majority, but simply being wilfully offensive, she has to go.

    Simple as.
    Exactly. Even on a basic technocratic level, it’s impossible to run a government when the Home Secretary is doing what the hell she likes in the face of Downing Street’s input. No choice but to sack her regardless of what you think of her views.
    Nah. Keep her in the tent. Say she is our attack dog

    Just grow a pair and ignore liberal media
    LOL. Amusing stuff. I see those beastly liberal bullies are entering your thinking again… truth is Suella had gone postal. A loose cannon. Sack a doodle dandy.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,433
    Nigelb said:


    Robert Reich
    @RBReich
    ·
    36m
    Trump and his allies are preparing for a truly unprecedented power grab if he gets a second term.

    The plan involves installing 50,000+ pre-vetted Trump loyalists across government.

    They'll do anything they can to centralize and expand his power.

    IE exactly what every new President coming into power in the US does?
    Really ?
    Please give a few precedents.
    As I understand it, all new administrations bring in their own partisan teams rather than relying upon a 'neutral' civil service as with our system.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,827
    Newsnight reporting on some movement on the ceasefire from Starmer . So we have a Labour amendment which calls for a cessation of fighting . Labour MPs should vote for this and accept the olive branch and not vote for the SNP amendment which will be an open goal for the Tories .
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,998
    edited November 2023

    As much of a tool Goodwin is, you have to hand it to him with this ‘poll’ in terms of getting publicity for ‘People Polling’, the dodgiest pollster in political history since Angus Reid teamed up with @StuartDickson to create Subsample Scotland. I’ll eat my hat if this 30 pt lead is reflected in other polling.

    And as for @Big_G_NorthWales ’s claim that it’s of 2019 Tory voters. LOL.

    GB News advertised a sensational poll for 9.00pm so I watched it and Goodwin said it was from 2019 conservative voters

    The comedy continued when the three panellists who discussed the poll dismissed it and were far from complimentary about Braverman and this on their own programme

    And for the benefit of doubt I do not watch GB News normally
    I mean, if it’s a sample of 2019 voters (it isn’t), Rishi might as well call his pal Elon and jettison Central Office into space, while converting every Tory constituency office into hostels for homeless veterans. They won’t be needed for their current purpose again.
    Indeed. If the Tories can only count on 19% of their 2019 voters they are down to Green Party levels of support.
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Ouch. Front page of the Times. I wonder if Sunak is in danger?





    “PM lied to me and betrayed Britain”. Screaming headline

    It’s all a bit weird seeing as this comes right after “the greatest reshuffle in the history of the solar system”

    He is if we continue to see polls with the Tories on 19%. Undoubtedly.
    I am not sure I have ever seen a Times headline as hostile to a Tory PM as that one. Accusing him - via Braverman - of “betraying Britain”

    That’s pretty devastating. But still they should get the massive Cameron boost soon as literally two PBers swing back from the Lib Dem’s because of the most brilliant reshuffle since God purged Satan
    Ha ha. I’m wondering what milestone you will cite next. The finest reshuffle since Eve came over a little peckish in the Garden of
    Eden?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,765
    nico679 said:

    Newsnight reporting on some movement on the ceasefire from Starmer . So we have a Labour amendment which calls for a cessation of fighting . Labour MPs should vote for this and accept the olive branch and not vote for the SNP amendment which will be an open goal for the Tories .

    Classic Starmer.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Another resignation from the ruling Labour group on Oxford City Council over Palestine. Apparently they're now down to 22 out of 48.

    It's interesting, and I can't fully explain, why this seems to have been a bigger issue in Oxford than in most other places. I don't know of anywhere else where Labour has lost a council majority over this.

    https://twitter.com/OxfordClarion/status/1724567093452931253
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,620
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Ouch. Front page of the Times. I wonder if Sunak is in danger?





    “PM lied to me and betrayed Britain”. Screaming headline

    It’s all a bit weird seeing as this comes right after “the greatest reshuffle in the history of the solar system”

    He is if we continue to see polls with the Tories on 19%. Undoubtedly.
    I am not sure I have ever seen a Times headline as hostile to a Tory PM as that one. Accusing him - via Braverman - of “betraying Britain”

    That’s pretty devastating. But still they should get the massive Cameron boost soon as literally two PBers swing back from the Lib Dem’s because of the most brilliant reshuffle since God purged Satan
    Who, apart from TSE, claimed it was particularly brilliant ?
    It was certainly a surprise - and the majority seem to be glad Braverman is gone (I concur) - but ‘brilliant’ ?
This discussion has been closed.