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Have a good cry Argentina, you have earned it – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,106
    kinabalu said:

    Ok but ideal world direction of travel, I mean. Also even if not enforceable it's good if you can put friction in the way of elected politicians wanting to do grim things that violate fundamental human rights like outright bans on abortion.

    Thought experiment: Imagine Leeds City Council wants to ban abortion in Leeds in response to voter demand in Leeds. That's democratic yes? Course it is. The people of Leeds have spoken. But what we say to Leeds City Council is: Sorry, you can't do that. There's a higher body (Westminster) that forbids it.

    Now ratchet up a notch. Westminster wants to ban abortion in the UK in response to voter demand in the UK. Democratic? Again yes. Very much so. But what we should imo be saying to Westminster is as before for Leeds: Sorry, you can't do that. There's a higher body that forbids it. Same thing. Same principle.

    In this case the 'higher body' could be national (Supreme Court) or (better) international. Course national leaders could still do shit like banning abortion at the end of the day (because like you say they control the police and the army) but we've put some friction in there. We've made it harder for them.
    What happens when the higher body decides to ban abortion in the U.K.?

    Higher != Better

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Nah. I think the new top team- Sunak, Dowden, Cameron, Cleverley - will be pretty united and will happily face down the mutineers. There will be a battle after the election and I rather suspect Cleverley is being lined up by the party establishment with Badenoch as as the approved alternative. Braverman, or whoever the rightwing factionalists line up, will likely get squeezed out.

    Braverman has rotten ratings with the public - she's no Boris - a paper tiger.
    Braverman represents the heart and soul of the modern Conservative Party.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399
    HYUFD said:

    Latest 2027 French presidential first round poll from IFOP

    Le Pen 31%, Phillippe 25%, Melenchon 14%, Zemmour 6.5%, Wauquiez 5%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election#First_round
    Firstly I'm not even sure Le Pen is to the right of the Tory Party. Certainly not to the right of Braverman. Secondly in every election other than the 30% the rest choose even the most diverse bedfellows to make sure she loses
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,624

    Lets look at the letter again:
    1. Details firm promises made on policy detail, anchored back to their manifesto
    2. Notes that Sunak is unelected by anyone and was actively rejected by the party
    3. Refers to repeated letters sent to try and drive engagement and action to deliver said policy details - I assume she has copies as she will need to show them
    4. Describes how he is either shit at politics or a liar - or both
    5. Sets out her preferred nuclear option which he has ignored

    Brutal, savage, designed to fire up the right of the party against him. Got to hand it to her, its brilliant. What does he do? The right won't let him brush it aside and move on. And unless he can show she is lying about her specific points he will have to deflect and evade. And that won't work either.
    Yes, it’s an excellent letter in terms of its purpose. Those who deny this or can’t see it are just projecting their dislike of her on to it

    It’s going to shake the Tory party. It’s one of the most cleverly lacerating attacks I’ve seen WITHIN a governing party. She knows what she’s doing
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459
    Jonathan said:

    Braverman represents the heart and soul of the modern Conservative Party.
    Nonsense. (Sorry)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Leon said:

    Yes, it’s an excellent letter in terms of its purpose. Those who deny this or can’t see it are just projecting their dislike of her on to it

    It’s going to shake the Tory party. It’s one of the most cleverly lacerating attacks I’ve seen WITHIN a governing party. She knows what she’s doing
    The problem is that she wrote it, and she wrote it now. She has no credibility. She screwed up and got herself sacked.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,499
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,624
    The Braverman letter is also a pure political popcorn moment. Bring it on. The Tories are going down do we might as well enjoy the bloodletting
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Omnium said:

    Nonsense. (Sorry)
    The members beg to differ
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    If Cruella has 'the deal' in writing, and publishes it, Richi is screwed.

    If she doesn't publish it, she is finished.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,616
    Endillion said:

    Lots of confidence on this point from people with little to no stake in the outcome.

    Always worth remembering that it was viewed as unthinkable that a civilized country like Germany would do anything like that in the 1930s. Also that it doesn't need to happen in exactly the same way as last time (or the time before that, or the time before that...) in order to justify a mass flight of Jews towards Israel.
    That is a fair comment. So, what's the solution? A majority Jewish Israel may protect the Jews, but how do we protect the Yazidis, the Romany, the Rohingya, the Sahrawis etc. Working towards an international, rules-based order that protects minority rights seems like a good thing to do... yes, no?

    And how do you balance this idea of a majority Jewish Israel as a protector with what the future people of Israel want to do? Do you oppress non-Jews in Israel to ensure Jews are not oppressed outside Israel?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459
    Jonathan said:

    The members beg to differ
    Well we'll see.
  • No 10 doesn't deny any of Braverman's explosive 'secret pact' claims, but spox says: “The PM believes in actions not words. He is proud that this government has brought forward the toughest legislation to tackle illegal migration this country has seen and has subsequently reduced the number of boat crossings by a third this year. And whatever the outcome of the Supreme Court tomorrow, he will continue that work. The PM thanks the former home secretary for her service."

    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1724480860588478791?s=20

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,624

    Nah. I think the new top team- Sunak, Dowden, Cameron, Cleverley - will be pretty united and will happily face down the mutineers. There will be a battle after the election and I rather suspect Cleverley is being lined up by the party establishment with Badenoch as as the approved alternative. Braverman, or whoever the rightwing factionalists line up, will likely get squeezed out.

    Braverman has rotten ratings with the public - she's no Boris - a paper tiger.
    You might be right on Braverman. I’m not a fan of hers - but this letter shows she’s smart and eloquent enough to really fuck with Sunak

    So she may not become PM but she can advance her cause against the left

    It’s another sign of Sunak’s mistake unravelling within 24 hours of him committing jt. As some of us predicted
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    @iainjwatson

    I'm told some Labour MPs are going to be sending the Braverman letter to their constituents...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    edited November 2023
    Omnium said:

    Well we'll see.
    We already saw it when they elected Johnson and Truss. She is not representative of the 1922, Tory grandees or Conservatives up to about 2016. Just the majority of members and a bunch of folk ranting on Con Home.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    Leon said:

    this letter shows she’s smart and eloquent enough to really fuck with Sunak

    Only if she "has receipts" as the kids are saying these days.

    otherwise it's all sound and fury, signifying nothing...
  • No 10 doesn't deny any of Braverman's explosive 'secret pact' claims, but spox says: “The PM believes in actions not words. He is proud that this government has brought forward the toughest legislation to tackle illegal migration this country has seen and has subsequently reduced the number of boat crossings by a third this year. And whatever the outcome of the Supreme Court tomorrow, he will continue that work. The PM thanks the former home secretary for her service."

    https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1724480860588478791?s=20

    Perfect response and less we forget 70% back Sunak's sacking of her
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,838
    Leon said:

    It’s brutal. It’s also much better written than the Jenkyns letter (not hard)

    And where is this petulant childishness? Its lucid, firm, bracing - and it drills right into Sunak’s perceived flaws: mainly weakness

    It will damage him
    The petulant childishness is in the very existence of the letter when yesterday there had seemed to be an agreement no letters would be exchanged, its length (this is not a letter, it's a newspaper column on headed notepaper), and the uncouth degree of self-praise particularly on page 1, in particular "it is generally agreed that my support was a pivotal factor in winning the leadership contest". It's an airing of dirty laundry in a way that broaches no subtlety. Certainly not in the style of Howe's resignation speech, Or Robin Cook's.

    It's a sort of right-wing mirror image of a James O'Brien rant.

    I agree it is much better written than Andrea Jenkyns' drunken effort.

    I also accept I'm probably not the target audience. But will this really ingratiate her to the Tory right?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,624
    I used Ito be firmly convinced FPTP was the best system. I have now completely changed my mind. Not a common thing on PB!

    Those in favour of electoral reform have convinced me. We need it. Both Labour and the Tories contain factions and philosophies which are utterly incompatible

    We need four five or six parties and PR of some sort. Britain has been badly governed for two decades and we need to address this, and this would be a beginning
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,911
    edited November 2023
    I was expecting new found Tory unity and a Labour Party in civil war when I got home this evening.
    That's what I was told anyways.
  • Taz said:
    He's no Aaron Burr.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,968
    I think this bloke could be in serious trouble. There's talk of the polis being called in.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67401875

    Michael Matheson is the Cabinet Secretary for Health so quite a big cheese (insofar as they have any now) in Natland.

    Refusing to hand in his ipad to check whether or not fraudulent claims have been made.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,895
    Roger said:

    Firstly I'm not even sure Le Pen is to the right of the Tory Party. Certainly not to the right of Braverman. Secondly in every election other than the 30% the rest choose even the most diverse bedfellows to make sure she loses
    A poll in April had Le Pen beating Macron 55% to 45% in another runoff, even some Melenchon voters joined Les Republicains and Zemmour voters to vote for her in that second round poll

    https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230405-le-pen-would-beat-macron-if-french-presidential-vote-repeated-poll
  • Leon said:

    I used Ito be firmly convinced FPTP was the best system. I have now completely changed my mind. Not a common thing on PB!

    Those in favour of electoral reform have convinced me. We need it. Both Labour and the Tories contain factions and philosophies which are utterly incompatible

    We need four five or six parties and PR of some sort. Britain has been badly governed for two decades and we need to address this, and this would be a beginning

    See I am always right and you are always wrong.

    You will soon recant your nonsense on Brexit.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,756

    That is a fair comment. So, what's the solution? A majority Jewish Israel may protect the Jews, but how do we protect the Yazidis, the Romany, the Rohingya, the Sahrawis etc. Working towards an international, rules-based order that protects minority rights seems like a good thing to do... yes, no?

    And how do you balance this idea of a majority Jewish Israel as a protector with what the future people of Israel want to do? Do you oppress non-Jews in Israel to ensure Jews are not oppressed outside Israel?
    Is clustering Jews in a small country surrounded by unfriendly countries really the 'ideal' way of protecting them as a whole?

    I'd think that having communities distributed within all the wealthy democratic nations would be the most effective.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050

    I think this bloke could be in serious trouble. There's talk of the polis being called in.

    Cos the Polis have such a great record of investigating Nat politicians...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,087
    Leon said:

    lol

    You called me a racist for saying there are discernible and scientifically important genetic differences between Africans and others; you claimed they absolutely do not exist. I gave you this Neanderthal data as an example. Then you went all quiet. Now suddenly it’s an amazing and interesting discovery. Pffff
    Yet the evidence of Neanderthal genetic inheritance was on open display here on PB all along….
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,968
    Leon said:

    I used Ito be firmly convinced FPTP was the best system. I have now completely changed my mind. Not a common thing on PB!

    Those in favour of electoral reform have convinced me. We need it. Both Labour and the Tories contain factions and philosophies which are utterly incompatible

    We need four five or six parties and PR of some sort. Britain has been badly governed for two decades and we need to address this, and this would be a beginning

    Great idea if you are content to see HMG being run subject to the whims of the Faragists, Corbynistas, Nationalists, or whoever else ends up holding the balance. The idea that it will be the mushy central calling the shots hasn't worked out too well in Israel.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,624
    TimS said:

    The petulant childishness is in the very existence of the letter when yesterday there had seemed to be an agreement no letters would be exchanged, its length (this is not a letter, it's a newspaper column on headed notepaper), and the uncouth degree of self-praise particularly on page 1, in particular "it is generally agreed that my support was a pivotal factor in winning the leadership contest". It's an airing of dirty laundry in a way that broaches no subtlety. Certainly not in the style of Howe's resignation speech, Or Robin Cook's.

    It's a sort of right-wing mirror image of a James O'Brien rant.

    I agree it is much better written than Andrea Jenkyns' drunken effort.

    I also accept I'm probably not the target audience. But will this really ingratiate her to the Tory right?
    The main purpose of the letter is to fuck over Sunak and damage the people around him. If she achieves this she will become a minor heroine of the Tory right, yes - there is real anger about all this

    They are doomed to hideous infighting. You should be enjoying it! Braverman is putting on a cracking show
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,895

    Most Romany do not live in caravans. Most live statically. Most Romany are in eastern Europe, of course, so ignore your stereotypes of Romany culture in the UK.

    I am concerned about Israel. You don't know my life, my family, my friends. My grandfather was killed by a Nazi bomb, while my grandmother's family were hosting German Jewish refugees. Of course, it was the Conservative government in the 1930s who made it harder for those refugees to come to the UK.

    You underestimate the differences in views of Israel among Jewish people. Go read about Neturei Karta in Stamford Hill who are strongly opposed to the existence of the state of Israel.

    More generally, you are repeating yourself and not answering my questions. If you don't want to, fine, but it's a bit pointless us just going around in circles. I don't want to stop Israel being a majority, Jewish nation. (I think Bibi should be in jail, but broadly what Israel does should be up to Israelis, not me, or you.) I don't think it is democratic to deny the possibility that such a change might happen in the future. I think we should move away from a 19th-centure view of nation states built on a single ethnos, but I understand and acknowledge the desire of many ethnic groups for a nation state of their own.
    90% of British Jews support the existence of Israel as a Jewish majority state and 59% identify as Zionists

    https://fullfact.org/news/are-majority-british-jews-zionists/

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,087
    Leon said:

    When were you there? I traveled widely in Argentina in 2019. Buenos Aires is a faded dump - you can still see the glimpses of its once-gilded architecture - the Barcelona of South America etc - but now it is overwhelmed by poverty and new migrants, outside some rare lush suburbs

    In places it is seriously dangerous

    Paradoxically, everywhere else I went in Argentina seemed pleasant to properly pleasant. In much of the country the climate is kind. Malbec wine flows like water. There are spectacular landscapes. Yes they are quite poor but not obviously poorer than their neighbours - and not obviously poorer than, say, Sicilians - where I have just been

    It has such great potential, too. Don’t write it off
    A hundred years back didn’t it have a GDP/standard of living comparable with much of Europe?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    What happens when the higher body decides to ban abortion in the U.K.?

    Higher != Better

    A victory for ending the murder of unborn children?
  • Leon said:

    The letter - which of course is self serving - gives quite a convincing argument she isn’t useless - she has been thwarted

    I’ve no idea if this is true. I am fairly sure it is not good news for Sunak

    An almighty bust up is brewing in the Tories. Maybe they just need to split
    Difficulty is that, under FPTP, to split is to lose.

    But making promises that his audience wants to hear, irrespective of his intention/ability to keep them?

    Maybe Rishi is just Boris with better trouser control
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,838
    Starmer's got a fairly open goal this PMQs. Trouble is that means the pressure will be on.

    Suella's letter helps because I think there's thinner gruel available on Cameron - more of a slow burner, let the newspapers reopen Greensill Capital rather than Labour forcing the point. On Cameron I think Starmer's best bet is probably to make the point that Sunak didn't think anyone within the current parliamentary party was good enough. But I think he'll use all his questions on Braverman.

    Sunak's responses are already clear: he'll talk about "actions not words" as his spokesperson did this afternoon. Starmer's comeback will presumably involve a list of Tory failures on "actions" across various policy areas. and so on.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,624

    Difficulty is that, under FPTP, to split is to lose.

    But making promises that his audience wants to hear, irrespective of his intention/ability to keep them?

    Maybe Rishi is just Boris with better trouser control
    Rishi isn’t remotely as good as Boris. Like it or not Boris had the charisma. He won the blue wall, he won the Brexit referendum, he won the mayoralty twice

    Sunak hasn’t actually won anything and he will leave politics having lost his one and only election
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,906
    TimS said:

    ... he'll talk about "actions not words" ...

    That's quite funny.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,616
    HYUFD said:

    90% of British Jews support the existence of Israel as a Jewish majority state and 59% identify as Zionists

    https://fullfact.org/news/are-majority-british-jews-zionists/

    Thank you for admitting that when you said that Jewish people, "on preservation of Israel they are as one", you spoke in error. People here often say you are unwilling to admit to your errors, but here you graciously have.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    The idea that PR is the solution to the post social media polarisation of politics is an interesting one.

    By forcing the compromises into the public eye, rather than the back room, it might highlight that progress is dependent on people finding a way to work together and that private rancor is a dead end.

    Either that or PR will let a minority view into power, and it might never let go.

    Interesting times.

    Personally I would try to solve the problem at source. The internet is obviously broken.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,838
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    The main purpose of the letter is to fuck over Sunak and damage the people around him. If she achieves this she will become a minor heroine of the Tory right, yes - there is real anger about all this

    They are doomed to hideous infighting. You should be enjoying it! Braverman is putting on a cracking show
    I am quite enjoying it. I just can't quite rid myself of the deep seated terror that Cameron, the smiling assassin of the Lib Dems, is going to do them over again like he did in 2015.

    My other fear is that if Braverman becomes a talisman of the right then her very clearly expressed position - that Britain should quit the ECHR - will shift the internal Tory Overton window and become full on orthodoxy, just waiting for the next conservative government to arrive and put it into action.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,895

    Thank you for admitting that when you said that Jewish people, "on preservation of Israel they are as one", you spoke in error. People here often say you are unwilling to admit to your errors, but here you graciously have.
    As you well know 90%+ in support of something is as close to unanimity as you will ever get in an opinion poll
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Leon said:

    The letter - which of course is self serving - gives quite a convincing argument she isn’t useless - she has been thwarted

    I’ve no idea if this is true. I am fairly sure it is not good news for Sunak

    An almighty bust up is brewing in the Tories. Maybe they just need to split
    Do you think so? I don’t think it makes any sort of argument. Her problem is that she was happy to go along with it all until she was sacked. She is saying “I didn’t have a proper job but I was ok with it because I was getting paid”. Makes her look a fool to me, at least.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,743
    Braverman's comment implying that Sunak sees being PM as an end in itself rings true.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,895
    edited November 2023

    Difficulty is that, under FPTP, to split is to lose.

    But making promises that his audience wants to hear, irrespective of his intention/ability to keep them?

    Maybe Rishi is just Boris with better trouser control
    If we had PR Rishi and Cameron would be in different parties to Boris, Rees Mogg and Braverman (and Farage would probably be in the latter party too) and Blair and Starmer would be in a different party to Corbyn and McDonnell.

    Only FPTP keeps them together
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,906
    biggles said:

    Do you think so? I don’t think it makes any sort of argument. Her problem is that she was happy to go along with it all until she was sacked. She is saying “I didn’t have a proper job but I was ok with it because I was getting paid”. Makes her look a fool to me, at least.
    What does that make the man who appointed her look like? Or rather re-appointed her just after she'd been sacked.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Suella needs to remember that:

    - the team is ALWAYS bigger than the individual
    - it's always important to go with dignity, even if you don't think it's your fault

    A bit late for that. I would imagine that she considers herself loyal to the true conservative team and it is dignified to challenge a usurper PM.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399
    Leon said:

    When were you there? I traveled widely in Argentina in 2019. Buenos Aires is a faded dump - you can still see the glimpses of its once-gilded architecture - the Barcelona of South America etc - but now it is overwhelmed by poverty and new migrants, outside some rare lush suburbs

    In places it is seriously dangerous

    Paradoxically, everywhere else I went in Argentina seemed pleasant to properly pleasant. In much of the country the climate is kind. Malbec wine flows like water. There are spectacular landscapes. Yes they are quite poor but not obviously poorer than their neighbours - and not obviously poorer than, say, Sicilians - where I have just been

    It has such great potential, too. Don’t write it off
    2005. It wasn't great everywhere but it was very elegant in parts and I liked the super wide streets. I would say a cross between Madrid and Miami with a flavour of South America
  • eekeek Posts: 29,696
    TimS said:

    I am quite enjoying it. I just can't quite rid myself of the deep seated terror that Cameron, the smiling assassin of the Lib Dems, is going to do them over again like he did in 2015.

    My other fear is that if Braverman becomes a talisman of the right then her very clearly expressed position - that Britain should quit the ECHR - will shift the internal Tory Overton window and become full on orthodoxy, just waiting for the next conservative government to arrive and put it into action.
    Except there is zero chance a right wing Tory party would get into power....
  • I think this bloke could be in serious trouble. There's talk of the polis being called in.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-67401875

    Michael Matheson is the Cabinet Secretary for Health so quite a big cheese (insofar as they have any now) in Natland.

    Refusing to hand in his ipad to check whether or not fraudulent claims have been made.

    I think the other story that might drown it out is Yousaf and his deputy misleading parliament.
  • This is splendidly splenetic. However, it raises the question of why Ms Braverman did not resign.
    How many broken promises and breaches of confidence would it have taken before she did so? Because it is clear that her limit had not been reached when she was dismissed.


    https://x.com/SCynic1/status/1724485616518238571?s=20
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,087
    Leon said:

    Rishi isn’t remotely as good as Boris. Like it or not Boris had the charisma. He won the blue wall, he won the Brexit referendum, he won the mayoralty twice

    A strategy based on telling everyone what they want to hear, whether it is true or not, will only get you so far, and eventually and inevitably he ran out of road. After which he was, and is, a busted flush.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754
    Roger said:

    Firstly I'm not even sure Le Pen is to the right of the Tory Party. Certainly not to the right of Braverman. Secondly in every election other than the 30% the rest choose even the most diverse bedfellows to make sure she loses
    You don’t think the head of the sodding national front is to the right of the Tories? A woman who wants a referendum on the death penalty, net migration of 10k, and no immediate right to French citizenship for children of naturalised Frenchmen?

    You are a foolish old man aren’t you?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399
    A letter dripping in vitriol........

    If no one else claims it it's mine!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,616
    HYUFD said:

    As you well know 90%+ in support of something is as close to unanimity as you will ever get in an opinion poll
    I think the attitude that a group who represent 10% of something don't matter isn't healthy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,087
    TimS said:

    I am quite enjoying it. I just can't quite rid myself of the deep seated terror that Cameron, the smiling assassin of the Lib Dems, is going to do them over again like he did in 2015.

    Cammo was forced into that by his party, against his own preference. Had he adopted a more far-sighted coalition-friendly electoral strategy, both his own career and the prospects for our country might have turned out significantly better than what we’ve witnessed this last eight years.

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    The abbreviated version:

    image

    No, that’s a coherent sentence.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459
    IanB2 said:

    A strategy based on telling everyone what they want to hear, whether it is true or not, will only get you so far, and eventually and inevitably he ran out of road. After which he was, and is, a busted flush.
    Sunak may randomly stumble on the sensible square. Losing the fog of the Parliamentary odd people on the right is helpful. (Lord knows what they, the odd, think they're doing)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,624
    Jonathan said:

    A bit late for that. I would imagine that she considers herself loyal to the true conservative team and it is dignified to challenge a usurper PM.
    Yes I think that’s right. And she has a point. Sunak is unelected and has no mandate - his only mandate is from the winning manifesto of 2019

    She’s arguing that the manifesto is bigger than him

    As I said yesterday all Sunak has done is bring forward the Tory civil war so it now happens before the election, in public, and meanwhile his asinine promotion of Cameron is likewise unraveling - and will only get worse as people scrutinise his finances as he squats, unelected, in the Lords

    Sunak made a howling error - despite all the praise
    he got oh here
  • MattW said:

    Do we have a number of MPs on the Braverman wing?

    Will it be a split or a mirror image of "Change"?
    ©🇭🅰🆖🇪
  • Have suddenly realised I am burning the candle at both ends and in the middle. Big client asked about Christmas working. Realised I've had one day off since summer holiday in July. And I worked part of that whilst in Spain.

    So have scrapped a planned team planning session on Friday and am not working. As I am so frazzed that whatever I output would have been bollocks anyway.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349
    Roger said:

    Firstly I'm not even sure Le Pen is to the right of the Tory Party. Certainly not to the right of Braverman. Secondly in every election other than the 30% the rest choose even the most diverse bedfellows to make sure she loses
    Posts like this make you look even more partisan and stupid than usual.
  • Leon said:

    Rishi isn’t remotely as good as Boris. Like it or not Boris had the charisma. He won the blue wall, he won the Brexit referendum, he won the mayoralty twice

    Sunak hasn’t actually won anything and he will leave politics having lost his one and only election
    nolo contendere

    I don't like Boris, or his impact on public life. But in his prime, there was a verve to his dishonesty that was hard to hate. A bit like Michael Crick's comment on Jeffrey Archer, "he's very hard to dislike."

    (Hence he's not coming back; the balloon has been punctured and can't be mended.)

    Yes, Boris was a conman. But at his best, he elevated that to a con artist. Rishi is paint by numbers, and it doesn't work as well.

    Whoever had to clear up the mess Bozza and Liz left would be in trouble. But Rishi isn't doing it well.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,624
    biggles said:

    No, that’s a coherent sentence.
    Are you actually claiming her letter is incoherent?

    Unfortunately for Sunak it is notably coherent. Articulate, sharp, well written, scathing - and deeply hostile and destructive
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,895
    eek said:

    Except there is zero chance a right wing Tory party would get into power....
    Yes Thatcher and Boris both led the Tories to heavy defeats on rightwing manifestos as we all remember, could never happen
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,968
    kinabalu said:

    Ok but ideal world direction of travel, I mean. Also even if not enforceable it's good if you can put friction in the way of elected politicians wanting to do grim things that violate fundamental human rights like outright bans on abortion.

    Thought experiment: Imagine Leeds City Council wants to ban abortion in Leeds in response to voter demand in Leeds. That's democratic yes? Course it is. The people of Leeds have spoken. But what we say to Leeds City Council is: Sorry, you can't do that. There's a higher body (Westminster) that forbids it.

    Now ratchet up a notch. Westminster wants to ban abortion in the UK in response to voter demand in the UK. Democratic? Again yes. Very much so. But what we should imo be saying to Westminster is as before for Leeds: Sorry, you can't do that. There's a higher body that forbids it. Same thing. Same principle.

    In this case the 'higher body' could be national (Supreme Court) or (better) international. Course national leaders could still do shit like banning abortion at the end of the day (because like you say they control the police and the army) but we've put some friction in there. We've made it harder for them.
    Lots of well intentioned nonsense here in your example. Abortion both now and historically is not an uncontested issue with a single obviously correct view - like say the use of bubonic plague in war, or torturing randomly chosen children for public entertainment.

    It is therefore and excellent example of something which should be under democratic and accountable control in a democracy, exactly as it is in the UK. The USA was wrong to allow it through the courts, and would be just as wrong to ban it through the courts.

    Full disclosure: I follow Bill Clinton on this one (if little else): abortion should be safe, legal, and rare.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,305
    A tower block in Bristol has been evacuated over safety fears.

    "A major incident has been declared in Bristol after "major structural faults" were discovered in a tower block.
    Surveys showed Barton House in Redfield would not be safe in the event of a fire or explosion."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-bristol-67421318
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    Leon said:

    Rishi isn’t remotely as good as Boris. Like it or not Boris had the charisma. He won the blue wall, he won the Brexit referendum, he won the mayoralty twice

    Sunak hasn’t actually won anything and he will leave politics having lost his one and only election
    Centrists are such bad losers that they’ll never give those who beat them any credit - it was always that the opponent was discredited, or someone told a fib in the campaign, or it was just a way of stopping a worse opponent winning. It seems to be the modern way; you can’t just disagree, the other side’s arguments & achievements have to be invalid, and their character must be despicable. Set against their own pious, worthiness of course
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,086
    Leon said:

    Are you actually claiming her letter is incoherent?

    Unfortunately for Sunak it is notably coherent. Articulate, sharp, well written, scathing - and deeply hostile and destructive
    It’s also a hostage to fortune as if the Rwanda plan is rejected tomorrow then all the Sunak outriders will be able to just point at her and say she’s clearly incompetent as her big policy was against the law and if she can’t get that right then what’s she for. They can say that she’s screwed up and set back the attempts at a plan to deter immigrants and that her actions are impotent.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Wouldn’t it have been better for Braverman to wait till after the SC hearing before having her tirade .

    There’s a good chance the government will win the appeal .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,624
    edited November 2023
    IanB2 said:

    A strategy based on telling everyone what they want to hear, whether it is true or not, will only get you so far, and eventually and inevitably he ran out of road. After which he was, and is, a busted flush.
    You’ll be surprised to hear I agree. A busted flush. He actually looks like he’s busted, as well - he’s aged a fair bit, the hair is thinning, I don’t detect the old mojo. He’s not coming back
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459
    Leon said:

    Are you actually claiming her letter is incoherent?

    Unfortunately for Sunak it is notably coherent. Articulate, sharp, well written, scathing - and deeply hostile and destructive
    I's a terrible letter. If you're going to write a letter make it good, and this is far from that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    IanB2 said:

    Cammo was forced into that by his party, against his own preference. Had he adopted a more far-sighted coalition-friendly electoral strategy, both his own career and the prospects for our country might have turned out significantly better than what we’ve witnessed this last eight years.

    Post 2015 politics makes the Coalition vs Edstone as a golden age of sane politics, as I have often pointed out.

    Once the Tories shed the LD leash they went more tonto than a short tempered XL Bully.
  • boulay said:

    It’s also a hostage to fortune as if the Rwanda plan is rejected tomorrow then all the Sunak outriders will be able to just point at her and say she’s clearly incompetent as her big policy was against the law and if she can’t get that right then what’s she for. They can say that she’s screwed up and set back the attempts at a plan to deter immigrants and that her actions are impotent.
    Frankly if I was Sunak I would rise above it
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    Leon said:

    You’ll be surprised to hear I agree. A busted flush. He actually looks like he’s busted, as well - he’s aged a fair bit, the hair is thinning, I don’t detect the old mojo. He’s not coming back
    i thought those qualities got you a cabinet job without the bother of being an MP!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399
    Leon said:

    Yes I think that’s right. And she has a point. Sunak is unelected and has no mandate - his only mandate is from the winning manifesto of 2019

    She’s arguing that the manifesto is bigger than him

    As I said yesterday all Sunak has done is bring forward the Tory civil war so it now happens before the election, in public, and meanwhile his asinine promotion of Cameron is likewise unraveling - and will only get worse as people scrutinise his finances as he squats, unelected, in the Lords

    Sunak made a howling error - despite all the praise
    he got oh here
    it all dates back to the fault line created by Brexit. It's incurable
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    Leon said:

    You’ll be surprised to hear I agree. A busted flush. He actually looks like he’s busted, as well - he’s aged a fair bit, the hair is thinning, I don’t detect the old mojo. He’s not coming back
    There are no second lives in British politics. Not since Harold Wilson anyway, and that wasn't a successful sequel.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,492

    Lets look at the letter again:
    1. Details firm promises made on policy detail, anchored back to their manifesto
    2. Notes that Sunak is unelected by anyone and was actively rejected by the party
    3. Refers to repeated letters sent to try and drive engagement and action to deliver said policy details - I assume she has copies as she will need to show them
    4. Describes how he is either shit at politics or a liar - or both
    5. Sets out her preferred nuclear option which he has ignored

    Brutal, savage, designed to fire up the right of the party against him. Got to hand it to her, its brilliant. What does he do? The right won't let him brush it aside and move on. And unless he can show she is lying about her specific points he will have to deflect and evade. And that won't work either.
    “It is generally agreed that…” isn’t savage in the slightest.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,624
    Omnium said:

    I's a terrible letter. If you're going to write a letter make it good, and this is far from that.
    Well you seem to be in a small minority

    Everyone else is saying “bombshell”, “scathing”, “vitriolic”, “explosive”, “damning”, “excoriating” - and given that Braverman clearly wanted it to be all those things it looks she hit the target. Bullseye, even
  • Roger said:

    it all dates back to the fault line created by Brexit. It's incurable
    Brexit is not a fault line, its history. Its done, we've moved on.

    Even Keir Starmer has moved on, its only diehards like you and Scott that haven't.

    The next election will not be decided by Brexit..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    IanB2 said:

    A strategy based on telling everyone what they want to hear, whether it is true or not, will only get you so far, and eventually and inevitably he ran out of road. After which he was, and is, a busted flush.
    He had strengths in the right moments, but it was his own weaknesses which brought him down after all. He should not have been so vulnerable after having such a big win in 2019, and no amount of blaming internal conspiracies changes that.

    With Suella I find it a bit hard to believe most of her goals will have been thwarted intentionally, since Rishi is definitely keen on stopping the boats for example. He's also definitely failed, but it doesn't look like he was walking on eggshells with that policy attempt.

    But it hardly matters, despite being a right wing Brexiter he was already seen as a remainer traitor by his fellow right wing Brexiters, and he's never getting them back on board now, or their voters.
  • Well now.

    The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) has arrested seven people following a series of dawn raids in connection with a collapsed law firm.

    Axiom Ince is at the centre of a criminal investigation launched by the SFO on Tuesday after £66m of client funds went missing from its accounts.

    More than 80 of the SFO’s investigators joined forces with the Metropolitan Police to arrest seven individuals on suspicion of fraud offences across nine locations around Bedfordshire.

    It comes after former managing partner of Axiom Ince, Pragnesh Modhwadia, admitted that most of the missing funds had already been spent.

    Millions were spent purchasing six properties and redeveloping seven others, he told the High Court in September.

    The former Axiom Ince boss reportedly owns a collection of houses, luxury London flats, office blocks and shopping malls, according to documents seen by legal website Roll on Friday.

    His portfolio built over nearly two decades reportedly included a £1.6m flat in Chelsea and a £4.6m office block in Edgware.

    Mr Modhwadia also used the cash to buy two law firms in pre-pack administration deals.

    This included £2.2m for Ince Group, once London’s largest listed law firm, which owed creditors £41m when it collapsed in April.

    He was suspended by the Solicitors Regulation Authority in August over suspected dishonesty, alongside two other law firm directors, Shyam Mistry and Idnan Liaqat.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/14/serious-fraud-office-arrests-seven-axiom-ince-law-firm/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,895
    edited November 2023

    The abbreviated version:

    image

    '....As you know, I accepted your offer to serve as home secretary in October 2022 on certain conditions.

    Despite you having been rejected by a majority of party members during the summer leadership contest and thus having no personal mandate to be prime minister, I agreed to support you because of the firm assurances you gave me on key policy priorities...It is generally agreed that my support was a pivotal factor in winning the leadership contest and thus enabling you to become prime minister.

    For a year, as home secretary I have sent numerous letters to you on the key subjects contained in our agreement, made requests to discuss them with you and your team, and put forward proposals on how we might deliver these goals.

    I worked up the legal advice, policy detail and action to take on these issues. This was often met with equivocation, disregard and a lack of interest.

    You have manifestly and repeatedly failed to deliver on every single one of these key policies. Either your distinctive style of government means you are incapable of doing so. Or, as I must surely conclude now, you never had any intention of keeping your promises...These are not just pet interests of mine. They are what we promised the British people in our 2019 manifesto which led to a landslide victory. They are what people voted for in the 2016 Brexit Referendum.

    Our deal was no mere promise over dinner, to be discarded when convenient and denied when challenged...In October of last year you were given an opportunity to lead our country. It is a privilege to serve and one we should not take for granted. Service requires bravery and thinking of the common good.

    It is not about occupying the office as an end in itself.

    Someone needs to be honest: your plan is not working, we have endured record election defeats, your resets have failed and we are running out of time. You need to change course urgently.

    I may not have always found the right words, but I have always striven to give voice to the quiet majority that supported us in 2019. I have endeavoured to be honest and true to the people who put us in these privileged positions.

    I will, of course, continue to support the government in pursuit of policies which align with an authentic conservative agenda.'

    An even more brutal resignation statement than Howe's, Lamont's or Robin Cook's
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67416146
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,624
    boulay said:

    It’s also a hostage to fortune as if the Rwanda plan is rejected tomorrow then all the Sunak outriders will be able to just point at her and say she’s clearly incompetent as her big policy was against the law and if she can’t get that right then what’s she for. They can say that she’s screwed up and set back the attempts at a plan to deter immigrants and that her actions are impotent.
    But then that just reflects terribly on Sunak for appointing her and agreeing to her plans

    Sunak is fucked. And Braverman has just used her strap-on
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,492
    Scott_xP said:

    If Cruella has 'the deal' in writing, and publishes it, Richi is screwed.

    If she doesn't publish it, she is finished.

    She doesn’t.
    Read her letter - she showed him a list of points, which she says he agreed to. That’s it.

    Weak tea.

    Which is mildly ironic, given our view of Sunak.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459
    Leon said:

    Well you seem to be in a small minority

    Everyone else is saying “bombshell”, “scathing”, “vitriolic”, “explosive”, “damning”, “excoriating” - and given that Braverman clearly wanted it to be all those things it looks she hit the target. Bullseye, even
    Well you don't think it's a good letter either - I'm sure.
  • Leon said:

    Well you seem to be in a small minority

    Everyone else is saying “bombshell”, “scathing”, “vitriolic”, “explosive”, “damning”, “excoriating” - and given that Braverman clearly wanted it to be all those things it looks she hit the target. Bullseye, even
    It's written with all the brilliance I would expect from a Cambridge educated lawyer.

    It is blistering.
  • HYUFD said:

    '....As you know, I accepted your offer to serve as home secretary in October 2022 on certain conditions.

    Despite you having been rejected by a majority of party members during the summer leadership contest and thus having no personal mandate to be prime minister, I agreed to support you because of the firm assurances you gave me on key policy priorities...It is generally agreed that my support was a pivotal factor in winning the leadership contest and thus enabling you to become prime minister.

    For a year, as home secretary I have sent numerous letters to you on the key subjects contained in our agreement, made requests to discuss them with you and your team, and put forward proposals on how we might deliver these goals.

    I worked up the legal advice, policy detail and action to take on these issues. This was often met with equivocation, disregard and a lack of interest.

    You have manifestly and repeatedly failed to deliver on every single one of these key policies. Either your distinctive style of government means you are incapable of doing so. Or, as I must surely conclude now, you never had any intention of keeping your promises...These are not just pet interests of mine. They are what we promised the British people in our 2019 manifesto which led to a landslide victory. They are what people voted for in the 2016 Brexit Referendum.

    Our deal was no mere promise over dinner, to be discarded when convenient and denied when challenged...In October of last year you were given an opportunity to lead our country. It is a privilege to serve and one we should not take for granted. Service requires bravery and thinking of the common good.

    It is not about occupying the office as an end in itself.

    Someone needs to be honest: your plan is not working, we have endured record election defeats, your resets have failed and we are running out of time. You need to change course urgently.

    I may not have always found the right words, but I have always striven to give voice to the quiet majority that supported us in 2019. I have endeavoured to be honest and true to the people who put us in these privileged positions.

    I will, of course, continue to support the government in pursuit of policies which align with an authentic conservative agenda.'

    An even more brutal resignation statement than Howe's or Robin Cook's
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67416146
    Now then young Rev'd HY. Will you be supporting:
    a) the indignantly righteous Mrs Braverman and her band of right wing culture warriors
    b) the rejected unelected Prime Minister who I expect will very quickly find his authority and his support sweeping away from him
    c) Whoever wins, and whats more you have *always* supported whoever wins
  • Meanwhile back at the Home Office the new home secretary, the aptly named James Cleverly, is proving a hit in his first speech to staff....



    https://twitter.com/alantravis40/status/1724491672854106219/photo/1
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,201

    Corbyn should be setting up his own party for the general election. Mandelson is simply running his "they have nowhere else to go" shtick and telling the Left to suck it up.
    Well as someone of a Conservative disposition that would tick all your boxes.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724

    Brexit is not a fault line, its history. Its done, we've moved on.

    Even Keir Starmer has moved on, its only diehards like you and Scott that haven't.

    The next election will not be decided by Brexit..
    Agreed. Everyone sees it for the massive error it was and the trendlines show rejoin consensus starting to emerge with us going back in around 10-15 years roughly. The issue has been decided. We screwed up.

    No mucking around with opt-outs this time. Euro, Schengen, the full monty when we're back in our rightful place at the heart of Europe, rather than pissing around with half arsed "trade deals" with south sea islands on the other side of the globe.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459

    It's written with all the brilliance I would expect from a Cambridge educated lawyer.

    It is blistering.
    Blisteringly bad.
  • Leon said:

    But then that just reflects terribly on Sunak for appointing her and agreeing to her plans

    Sunak is fucked. And Braverman has just used her strap-on
    You're the expert on sex toys, not me. But it's a curious setup which hurts both the fooker and the fookee.

    If you seek to destroy your enemy, first dig two graves and all that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,492
    nico679 said:

    Wouldn’t it have been better for Braverman to wait till after the SC hearing before having her tirade .

    There’s a good chance the government will win the appeal .

    Stride was on PM saying he didn’t know, but the government “had every reason to think it would be in their favour”. If DavidL is correct that the government gets briefed of the outcome a day or so in advance, then that’s it.

    His interview answers, btw, were in the best traditions of Yes Minister mogadon. The perfect response to the Braverman tirade.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349
    Nigelb said:

    She doesn’t.
    Read her letter - she showed him a list of points, which she says he agreed to. That’s it.

    Weak tea.

    Which is mildly ironic, given our view of Sunak.
    She seems to have fallen for the same trick Brown did, not realising that once the other person is in the top job any promises are worthless, and can easily be batted back as being currently impractical due to circumstances.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,272

    Great idea if you are content to see HMG being run subject to the whims of the Faragists, Corbynistas, Nationalists, or whoever else ends up holding the balance. The idea that it will be the mushy central calling the shots hasn't worked out too well in Israel.
    Isn't that what's happening in the US with FPTP?
This discussion has been closed.