Why Labour’s large leads could be a chimera – politicalbetting.com
Why Labour’s large leads could be a chimera – politicalbetting.com
Can the Tories win back waverers?New exclusive polling by Sky News and @YouGov gives a hint that a crucial group of voters may still be up for grabs.@SamCoatesSky has more on the data ?#PoliticsHub https://t.co/GlTNastFii? Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube pic.twitter.com/RWlM3iLJGV
Comments
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First like Starmer or is this another chimera?1
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True first.0
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First 'real' reply0
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First proper 'real' reply:
Isn't this exactly what people were saying before 1997?1 -
Sri Lanka, blimey.
South Africa breaking the habit of a lifetime and not choking is the only way India don't win the world cup.0 -
Is this not the same point we had a few threads ago? A lot of Tories are not saying Labour, they are saying "don't know". They may yet vote Tory, however unenthusiastically. Maybe. Or maybe not.1
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A little bit, it's that approval rating lead that is different.Benpointer said:First proper 'real' reply:
Isn't this exactly what people were saying before 1997?
In 1997 Blair still led with this type of demographic IIRC.0 -
Eh?TheScreamingEagles said:Sri Lanka, blimey.
Only if South Africa break the habit of a lifetime and avoid a choke then India have won this world cup.0 -
I don't know.TheScreamingEagles said:First like Starmer or is this another chimera?
Sometimes it's hard to separate the goats from the lions and the snakes.0 -
Yes but that 68% lead Sunak has is what is new/different.DavidL said:Is this not the same point we had a few threads ago? A lot of Tories are not saying Labour, they are saying "don't know". They may yet vote Tory, however unenthusiastically. Maybe. Or maybe not.
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Failure at multitasking, fixed now.ydoethur said:
Eh?TheScreamingEagles said:Sri Lanka, blimey.
Only if South Africa break the habit of a lifetime and avoid a choke then India have won this world cup.0 -
I'm not sure the change is much better, to be honest.TheScreamingEagles said:
Failure at multitasking, fixed now.ydoethur said:
Eh?TheScreamingEagles said:Sri Lanka, blimey.
Only if South Africa break the habit of a lifetime and avoid a choke then India have won this world cup.
May I suggest:
South Africa breaking the habit of a lifetime and not choking is the only way India don't win the world cup.0 -
Oh, ok, but to me the more important characteristics are that these people are of a certain age (much older than average) and class (significantly wealthier). People in these categories have a strong tendency to vote. I don't believe the old rule of "don't know = non voter" applies to them.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes but that 68% lead Sunak has is what is new/different.DavidL said:Is this not the same point we had a few threads ago? A lot of Tories are not saying Labour, they are saying "don't know". They may yet vote Tory, however unenthusiastically. Maybe. Or maybe not.
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I think there are enough voters there to take the Conservatives to 31-34% on the day, but nowhere near enough to win. I think that even the most loyal Conservatives know that the party could not survive another term in government.3
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Done.ydoethur said:
I'm not sure the change is much better, to be honest.TheScreamingEagles said:
Failure at multitasking, fixed now.ydoethur said:
Eh?TheScreamingEagles said:Sri Lanka, blimey.
Only if South Africa break the habit of a lifetime and avoid a choke then India have won this world cup.
May I suggest:
South Africa breaking the habit of a lifetime and not choking is the only way India don't win the world cup.1 -
But to me, it seems quite clearTheScreamingEagles said:
A little bit, it's that approval rating lead that is different.Benpointer said:First proper 'real' reply:
Isn't this exactly what people were saying before 1997?
In 1997 Blair still led with this type of demographic IIRC.
That it's all just a little bit of history repeating0 -
The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
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First of a different kind: I've just heard Now and Then.0
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India a making a pie of it. SL 22/7.TheScreamingEagles said:Sri Lanka, blimey.
South Africa breaking the habit of a lifetime and not choking is the only way India don't win the world cup.0 -
On now is the 41st anniversary edition of Countdown, which means today is the 41st anniversary of Channel 4.1
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Sorry but SKS may be boring and possibly ineffectual, but he doesn't frighten the horses. He is not Corbyn and however much the Tory press try they won't be able to turn into a hate figure. From speaking to voters on the doorstep, not just in by-elections, people will find someone else to vote for other than the Conservative -5% for Reform - more if Farage gets involved - will help Labour get home.0
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Ah well. The Tory landslide defeat at the next election was fun while we were all imagining it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes but that 68% lead Sunak has is what is new/different.DavidL said:Is this not the same point we had a few threads ago? A lot of Tories are not saying Labour, they are saying "don't know". They may yet vote Tory, however unenthusiastically. Maybe. Or maybe not.
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Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher0 -
And it will be even more fun when it's happening in about 12 months.LostPassword said:
Ah well. The Tory landslide defeat at the next election was fun while we were all imagining it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes but that 68% lead Sunak has is what is new/different.DavidL said:Is this not the same point we had a few threads ago? A lot of Tories are not saying Labour, they are saying "don't know". They may yet vote Tory, however unenthusiastically. Maybe. Or maybe not.
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The answer is hiding in full view - Andrea Leadsom!Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher0 -
Scarily, I remember it so clearly.DecrepiterJohnL said:On now is the 41st anniversary edition of Countdown, which means today is the 41st anniversary of Channel 4.
(Although, perhaps even scarier if I couldn't remember it at all...)2 -
It could still happen.LostPassword said:
Ah well. The Tory landslide defeat at the next election was fun while we were all imagining it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes but that 68% lead Sunak has is what is new/different.DavidL said:Is this not the same point we had a few threads ago? A lot of Tories are not saying Labour, they are saying "don't know". They may yet vote Tory, however unenthusiastically. Maybe. Or maybe not.
Polls aren’t static and this could change.
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If all of the Reform and Undecideds go back to the Tories, that gives them 75% of their 2019 GB share of 44.3% which 33.5%. That isn't enough.0
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Bumrah's 1-8 off 5 overs are pretty shabby figures.DavidL said:
India a making a pie of it. SL 22/7.TheScreamingEagles said:Sri Lanka, blimey.
South Africa breaking the habit of a lifetime and not choking is the only way India don't win the world cup.
No wonder he's been taken off.0 -
I know which is why I wrote in the header.DougSeal said:If all of the Reform and Undecideds go back to the Tories, that gives them 75% of their 2019 GB share of 44.3% which 33.5%. That isn't enough.
I am not saying that the Tories will win the next election but it is possible that Labour fail to win a majority because of this key demographic0 -
Probably a chimera?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes but that 68% lead Sunak has is what is new/different.DavidL said:Is this not the same point we had a few threads ago? A lot of Tories are not saying Labour, they are saying "don't know". They may yet vote Tory, however unenthusiastically. Maybe. Or maybe not.
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One thing you rarely hear on this topic is what proportion of did-not-voters are now saying Labour. If 10% of voters move from Tory to DNV and 10% of DNV move from DNV to Labour it has the same effect as 10% move from Tory to Labour.
As Corbyn was so unpopular it is likely there were a considerable Labourish voters who decided to stay at home in 2019.1 -
When the bowler, Shami, who replaced him has 4-1 then you have to wonder whether Bumrah was having an off day.dixiedean said:
Bumrah's 1-8 off 5 overs are pretty shabby figures.DavidL said:
India a making a pie of it. SL 22/7.TheScreamingEagles said:Sri Lanka, blimey.
South Africa breaking the habit of a lifetime and not choking is the only way India don't win the world cup.
No wonder he's been taken off.1 -
However.TheScreamingEagles said:
I know which is why I wrote in the header.DougSeal said:If all of the Reform and Undecideds go back to the Tories, that gives them 75% of their 2019 GB share of 44.3% which 33.5%. That isn't enough.
I am not saying that the Tories will win the next election but it is possible that Labour fail to win a majority because of this key demographic
If the Scottish figures are anything like the polls yesterday, the bar for Labour is so much lower than previously imagined.
34 for the Tories is unlikely to force a Hung Parliament with Labour ahead in Scotland.1 -
Was interesting at the last election to hear on the doorsteps how people had really taken against the leader of the LibDems, Jo Swinson. This time around, I haven't heard active dislike of Starmer - but have not heard a single person who is enthusiastic about him.numbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.0 -
Personally, I think things are only going to get worse for the Tories the longer they hang on.TheScreamingEagles said:
I know which is why I wrote in the header.DougSeal said:If all of the Reform and Undecideds go back to the Tories, that gives them 75% of their 2019 GB share of 44.3% which 33.5%. That isn't enough.
I am not saying that the Tories will win the next election but it is possible that Labour fail to win a majority because of this key demographic
I may be accused of wishful thinking but, no, my wishful thinking would be for them not to hang on any longer - go to the country now Sunak, while you have slim chance of avoiding a Tory meltdown.0 -
Wishful thinking.Benpointer said:
Personally, I think things are only going to get worse for the Tories the longer they hang on.TheScreamingEagles said:
I know which is why I wrote in the header.DougSeal said:If all of the Reform and Undecideds go back to the Tories, that gives them 75% of their 2019 GB share of 44.3% which 33.5%. That isn't enough.
I am not saying that the Tories will win the next election but it is possible that Labour fail to win a majority because of this key demographic
I may be accused of wishful thinking but, no, my wishful thinking would be for them not to hang on any longer - go to the country now Sunak, while you have slim chance of avoiding a Tory meltdown.1 -
The number of appalling mismatches in this World Cup hasn't been a great advert for ODI cricket.0
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Hard to believe people would vote this sorry bunch of useless crooked ne'er do wells back in, need to be real gluttons for punishment.numbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.1 -
I know, and we've got England versus Netherlands to come.ydoethur said:The number of appalling mismatches in this World Cup hasn't been a great advert for ODI cricket.
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Yeah, and the Netherlands winning by ten wickets will be salt in our wounds.Benpointer said:
I know, and we've got England versus Netherlands to come.ydoethur said:The number of appalling mismatches in this World Cup hasn't been a great advert for ODI cricket.
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A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.
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What are the enthusiasm numbers for Rishi?MarqueeMark said:
Was interesting at the last election to hear on the doorsteps how people had really taken against the leader of the LibDems, Jo Swinson. This time around, I haven't heard active dislike of Starmer - but have not heard a single person who is enthusiastic about him.numbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.0 -
I can’t see it either.malcolmg said:
Hard to believe people would vote this sorry bunch of useless crooked ne'er do wells back in, need to be real gluttons for punishment.numbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
But I can just about see a hung parliament - potentially.
I find the next GE really tough to call. One day I’m thinking we could be looking at a landslide to rival 97, the next an underwhelming Labour largest party. There appears to be a lot of conflicting data and smoke signals.
What I really don’t see is the Tories clinging on.0 -
Sri Lanka pass Canada's record low World Cup score of 36.0
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Ahem, that’s Prime Minister Jo Swinson I think you’ll find!MarqueeMark said:
Was interesting at the last election to hear on the doorsteps how people had really taken against the leader of the LibDems, Jo Swinson. This time around, I haven't heard active dislike of Starmer - but have not heard a single person who is enthusiastic about him.numbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
Yes that one was odd. People did take against her for some reason. I do think people had a bit of a titter about her claiming she was going to be the PM, but beyond that there wasn’t really a lot to actively dislike about her, even if you disagreed with her Brexit stance.1 -
Easy there! My post was more self-reassurance than criticism of you,TheScreamingEagles said:
I know which is why I wrote in the header.DougSeal said:If all of the Reform and Undecideds go back to the Tories, that gives them 75% of their 2019 GB share of 44.3% which 33.5%. That isn't enough.
I am not saying that the Tories will win the next election but it is possible that Labour fail to win a majority because of this key demographic1 -
A grim account of Jewish settler violence in the West Bank
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/middleeast/west-bank-palestinians-israel-settlers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don’t see this getting anywhere but much worse. And the chances of a wider war expand daily0 -
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.0 -
Yeah, never misunderestimate a Cambridge educated lawyer, they are the best, particularly ones of Asian heritage.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.1 -
Braverman is going to be leader, IMHO.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.
And yes, I fear you are right on the second point too. I am not sure if she can win an election, but she can certainly be an effective demagogue. I didn’t think she could be, but listen to her recent speeches - she’s improved markedly, and she comes across well.0 -
I'm going to keep a close eye on her footwear choices.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, never misunderestimate a Cambridge educated lawyer, they are the best, particularly ones of Asian heritage.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.0 -
'the commentariat' - you mean Spectator writers and the like?Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.1 -
Yes, if Sunak wins almost all 2019 Conservative voters who are now undecided who are backing RefUK he could get a hung parliament. However if Starmer wins back enough seats from the SNP who could still get a small Labour majority0
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I think that’s about right. Except that there may be fewer voters over all, and there’s a bit of “swing back” to come.DougSeal said:If all of the Reform and Undecideds go back to the Tories, that gives them 75% of their 2019 GB share of 44.3% which 33.5%. That isn't enough.
Over all, I think the Tory realistic hope is probably a Blair 05 win for Starmer, but on the new boundaries. You get some flavour of Labour led Gvt but it’s weak and the Tories can hope to bounce back if they recover quickly and sober up.0 -
Michelle for Shami. I thought he was a bit unlucky not to get MoTM against England surely he'll get it here.0
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To be fair to Jo Swinson, politicians had found a cause (Brexit) they were prepared to die in a ditch for. Something that hadn’t happen in many decades.numbertwelve said:
Ahem, that’s Prime Minister Jo Swinson I think you’ll find!MarqueeMark said:
Was interesting at the last election to hear on the doorsteps how people had really taken against the leader of the LibDems, Jo Swinson. This time around, I haven't heard active dislike of Starmer - but have not heard a single person who is enthusiastic about him.numbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
Yes that one was odd. People did take against her for some reason. I do think people had a bit of a titter about her claiming she was going to be the PM, but beyond that there wasn’t really a lot to actively dislike about her, even if you disagreed with her Brexit stance.
Both the major parties *could* have undergone the kind of epochal event that turned the old Liberals into a minor party.
She was trying to grasp that moment.1 -
I have reported her to the fashion police over her student days.Nigelb said:
I'm going to keep a close eye on her footwear choices.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, never misunderestimate a Cambridge educated lawyer, they are the best, particularly ones of Asian heritage.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.
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Depends on the economy, if it is poor under a Labour government they would be back in contention even with a dull leader (and Thatcher wasn't that popular anyway when she first became Tory leader)Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher0 -
I think you're underunderestimating her chances tbh.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, never misunderestimate a Cambridge educated lawyer, they are the best, particularly ones of Asian heritage.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.0 -
Wishful thinkingTheScreamingEagles said:
I know which is why I wrote in the header.DougSeal said:If all of the Reform and Undecideds go back to the Tories, that gives them 75% of their 2019 GB share of 44.3% which 33.5%. That isn't enough.
I am not saying that the Tories will win the next election but it is possible that Labour fail to win a majority because of this key demographic
0 -
Could the country survive another term?Sean_F said:I think there are enough voters there to take the Conservatives to 31-34% on the day, but nowhere near enough to win. I think that even the most loyal Conservatives know that the party could not survive another term in government.
3 -
Yes. I have thought for ages that NOM is value in the betting, and I still think so.TheScreamingEagles said:
I know which is why I wrote in the header.DougSeal said:If all of the Reform and Undecideds go back to the Tories, that gives them 75% of their 2019 GB share of 44.3% which 33.5%. That isn't enough.
I am not saying that the Tories will win the next election but it is possible that Labour fail to win a majority because of this key demographic
Having said that, not long ago I expected a poll with a 10 point Labour lead by Christmas, and that is looking unlikely.
Of betting and political interest equally is the great range of possibilities in the middle - the big area of trench warfare where the Tories lose more than about 45/50 seats (losing control) but Labour fail to gain about 115-120 seats (failing to gain control).
Numbers are imprecise because of SF, and the unpredictability of perfidious DUP.0 -
I do not foresee a wider war but the odd lone wolf terrorist attack would be no great surprise. Thankfully in this country mostly calm heads have prevailed so far.Leon said:A grim account of Jewish settler violence in the West Bank
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/middleeast/west-bank-palestinians-israel-settlers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don’t see this getting anywhere but much worse. And the chances of a wider war expand daily0 -
I think that's right, just as I think a lot of the Tory "undecided" voters will stay at home next time.eristdoof said:One thing you rarely hear on this topic is what proportion of did-not-voters are now saying Labour. If 10% of voters move from Tory to DNV and 10% of DNV move from DNV to Labour it has the same effect as 10% move from Tory to Labour.
As Corbyn was so unpopular it is likely there were a considerable Labourish voters who decided to stay at home in 2019.0 -
I'm torn tbh. Much as I'd enjoy seeing the Tories absolutely trounced, there something to be said for Labour needing the support of the LDs to govern - might boost a move from FPTP, closer ties to Europe.
So long as we don't get a 1992 repeat. Imagine, five more years of this lot.2 -
Hmm. I seem to recall you were a Truss proponent.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.
However, tbf, Braverman, though I'm not keen, is far more persuasive that Truss and almost certainly possesses a political antennae which La Truss manifestly didn't. I think she could, as you say, confound the commentariat with her direct no-nonsense approach.
OTOH I wonder if she will be able to hold the party together. May be seen as the "final straw" by the moderate end of the parliamentary party.0 -
Braverman, my MP, has a record of making terrible decisions.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.
Brexit - the harder the better.
Liz Truss for leader.
Backing Kwasi on the abolition of the 45% tax rate
Her decisions have cost the average voter quite a lot of money, not a great start to making her 'much more popular'.0 -
So if it does get much worse will this mean you've 'called it'?Leon said:A grim account of Jewish settler violence in the West Bank
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/middleeast/west-bank-palestinians-israel-settlers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don’t see this getting anywhere but much worse. And the chances of a wider war expand daily1 -
Yes. If the Tories get another term, it will be because they have seriously upped their game in the year before an election.kinabalu said:
Could the country survive another term?Sean_F said:I think there are enough voters there to take the Conservatives to 31-34% on the day, but nowhere near enough to win. I think that even the most loyal Conservatives know that the party could not survive another term in government.
And Starmer will look like he is not up to the top job.
An election tends to concentrate minds all round.0 -
You've really detected no nonsense from her direction ?Burgessian said:
Hmm. I seem to recall you were a Truss proponent.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.
However, tbf, Braverman, though I'm not keen, is far more persuasive that Truss and almost certainly possesses a political antennae which La Truss manifestly didn't. I think she could, as you say, confound the commentariat with her direct no-nonsense approach.
OTOH I wonder if she will be able to hold the party together. May be seen as the "final straw" by the moderate end of the parliamentary party.0 -
Landslide is the clear betting fav now. If you're not sold on it (I am) there's value punting the other way.numbertwelve said:
I can’t see it either.malcolmg said:
Hard to believe people would vote this sorry bunch of useless crooked ne'er do wells back in, need to be real gluttons for punishment.numbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
But I can just about see a hung parliament - potentially.
I find the next GE really tough to call. One day I’m thinking we could be looking at a landslide to rival 97, the next an underwhelming Labour largest party. There appears to be a lot of conflicting data and smoke signals.
What I really don’t see is the Tories clinging on.0 -
Haley enjoying twisting the knife.
Not a bad effort.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/02/haley-desantis-2024-00124962
...“Are you wearing higher heels than Ron DeSantis next week at the debate so you can look taller than him on the stage?” Charlamagne Tha God, who is guest hosting “The Daily Show,” asked Haley Wednesday night.
“I don’t know. We’ll have to figure that out. I can tell you I’ve always talked about my high heels. I’ve never hid that from anybody,” Haley responded. “I’ve always said, don’t wear them if you can’t run in them. So we’ll see if he can run in them.”
DeSantis’ campaign didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment, but has vehemently denied the heel accusations in the past. In a POLITICO article this week about the matter, a DeSantis campaign spokesperson called it a “hit piece” and said the presidential candidate doesn’t pad his boots...0 -
Ah, but listen to a speech by her and you’ll see her political strategy.logical_song said:
Braverman, my MP, has a record of making terrible decisions.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.
Brexit - the harder the better.
Liz Truss for leader.
Backing Kwasi on the abolition of the 45% tax rate
Her decisions have cost the average voter quite a lot of money, not a great start to making her 'much more popular'.
She is going for the “I will say what others won’t,” strategy. Essentially, the Trump playbook. And unfortunately there has for many years been an undercurrent in this country of exasperation with how politics works, how politicians behave, how they don’t, allegedly, focus on the priorities of the man on the street.
This sort of attitude led to Brexit. I’d like to think we’ve learned our lesson on that front, but I’m not convinced. Braverman is going to make a pitch for that, and it’s going to be messy. Think culture war turned up to max, the immigration hot potato becoming even hotter, and a lot of outrageous stuff being said.
Dont believe me? See her speech in Washington and her conference speech. She is gearing up for this.2 -
I was actually a severe Truss sceptic - go back and look at my remarks during the first leadership debate - "she's unbelievably bad" etcBurgessian said:
Hmm. I seem to recall you were a Truss proponent.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.
However, tbf, Braverman, though I'm not keen, is far more persuasive that Truss and almost certainly possesses a political antennae which La Truss manifestly didn't. I think she could, as you say, confound the commentariat with her direct no-nonsense approach.
OTOH I wonder if she will be able to hold the party together. May be seen as the "final straw" by the moderate end of the parliamentary party.
However I did lapse for about two days into a fit of insane deluded optimism about Truss. It was a stern lesson to myself in the follies of Hopecasting. I so WANTED to believe the Tories had found a sharp, smart, charismatic, Leaver leader, able to sort out the mess of Boris and Co, that I convinced myself, for about 48 hours, that Truss was it
Not my best moment
Braverman feels different. Sane, grounded, intelligent. She has firm right wing views that make her anathema to many, but she doesn't strike me as mad and she has a lot of self belief - and quite an impressive backstory, educationally. She really isn't dim - an accusation hurled at her, absurdly
Who knows. Badenoch comes over as a touch lightweight. Mordaunt is odd, telegenic but odd. And also lightweight
Those seem to be the main three contenders, ATM, it would be marv if someone new and dazzling emerged..0 -
On topic, no, they're not a chimera.
Only about 10% of 1992 Tories switched to Labour in 1997 and look how that worked out.
The Labour vote increased by 2m from 1992-7, some of which was LD tactical voting (the LD vote actually fell over the two elections, despite the LDs more than doubling their number of MPs).
By contrast, the Tory vote fell by fully 5m. Many 1992 Tories simply sat out the Blair landslide, content to watch it happen.
Given that Corbyn's gone, Brexit's done, Starmer's inoffensive and the Tories' rating is not so much down the toilet as through the sewage works and out into the river, it's easy to see why many 2019 Tories - and especially their first-time voters and those voting tactically to keep Labour out - could well simply abstain. I'd predict that many of that 23% DK will end up as DNV (and remember that for those who do return to the Tory fold, there are balancing 2019 Labour voters who are currently DK / LD / Grn who are, IMO, at least as likely to return, though not all will there either).
In other words, the dynamic that worked so strongly to Labour's favour is highly likely to repeat itself, albeit at lower levels of enthusiasm on both sides - as if we jump straight from 1992 to 2001.5 -
As someone who normally switches his vote between LibDem and Labour, I went Labour last time because a) I really didn’t like Jo Swindon’s attitude and b) I thought Labour had a better chance of beating Priti Patel (!).
I wasn’t very worried by Corbyn, because I thought he was suffering, and suffered in the past, a lot of unfair and inaccurate criticism from the Conservative press.
I’m not at all sure I trust Starmer; as a politician he’s seriously short of experience, as shown by his shilly-shallying approach to Europe and the Middle East.
However I could be prepared to vote Labour if their candidate had a sliver of a chance against Madam Patel!0 -
Ha ! Wishful thinking sir.Benpointer said:
Personally, I think things are only going to get worse for the Tories the longer they hang on.TheScreamingEagles said:
I know which is why I wrote in the header.DougSeal said:If all of the Reform and Undecideds go back to the Tories, that gives them 75% of their 2019 GB share of 44.3% which 33.5%. That isn't enough.
I am not saying that the Tories will win the next election but it is possible that Labour fail to win a majority because of this key demographic
I may be accused of wishful thinking but, no, my wishful thinking would be for them not to hang on any longer - go to the country now Sunak, while you have slim chance of avoiding a Tory meltdown.0 -
No. To my mind you can only say you "called it" if you go against the prevailing wisdom, or you challenge some consensuskinabalu said:
So if it does get much worse will this mean you've 'called it'?Leon said:A grim account of Jewish settler violence in the West Bank
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/middleeast/west-bank-palestinians-israel-settlers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don’t see this getting anywhere but much worse. And the chances of a wider war expand daily
I did that with Covid, Lab Leak, Ukraine, AI, and others (in my extremely humble opinion)
I'm hardly alone in fearing a wider war springing from this dreadful Gaza conflict0 -
You do wonder whether she might be the straw that breaks the Labour leadership's back on its opposition to PR, for that very reason.Burgessian said:
Hmm. I seem to recall you were a Truss proponent.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.
However, tbf, Braverman, though I'm not keen, is far more persuasive that Truss and almost certainly possesses a political antennae which La Truss manifestly didn't. I think she could, as you say, confound the commentariat with her direct no-nonsense approach.
OTOH I wonder if she will be able to hold the party together. May be seen as the "final straw" by the moderate end of the parliamentary party.0 -
The most likely outcome is that Israel hammers Gaza for a while longer before declaring victory and pulling out, leaving the rest of the world to pick up the pieces. The blockade will continue, and Israel will erect very solid defences between itself and Gaza with extremely limited border crossings. The Gazans will carry living in enforced poverty, and the world will gradually forget about them again.DecrepiterJohnL said:
I do not foresee a wider war but the odd lone wolf terrorist attack would be no great surprise. Thankfully in this country mostly calm heads have prevailed so far.Leon said:A grim account of Jewish settler violence in the West Bank
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/middleeast/west-bank-palestinians-israel-settlers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don’t see this getting anywhere but much worse. And the chances of a wider war expand daily1 -
FWIW I have met some hardcore Jewish Settler types
They can be deeply unpleasant. Filled with a poper Messianic zeal, replete with religious self belief, suffused with their own racial supremacy - actual proper cold-eyed Nazis - the mirror image of the Islamists
It s a toxic mix in a volatile place. Like using a naked flame to illuminate a room full of gunpowder3 -
A
Not sure how a wider war gets started.Leon said:
No. To my mind you can only say you "called it" if you go against the prevailing wisdom, or you challenge some consensuskinabalu said:
So if it does get much worse will this mean you've 'called it'?Leon said:A grim account of Jewish settler violence in the West Bank
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/middleeast/west-bank-palestinians-israel-settlers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don’t see this getting anywhere but much worse. And the chances of a wider war expand daily
I did that with Covid, Lab Leak, Ukraine, AI, and others (in my extremely humble opinion)
I'm hardly alone in fearing a wider war springing from this dreadful Gaza conflict
The Arab world doesn’t want another standup war with Israel. Aside from the nuclear thing, the history is not good. Most of their leaders are “Presidents For Life”. Loosing a war is quite possibly fatal.
And they have the recent evidence that a lot of their Russian toys are not exactly winners.
Israel could strike Iran, I suppose, but to what end?0 -
If Starmer needs the LDs to govern, that means he will not be able to get his new housing in the greenbelt and new towns plans throughBenpointer said:I'm torn tbh. Much as I'd enjoy seeing the Tories absolutely trounced, there something to be said for Labour needing the support of the LDs to govern - might boost a move from FPTP, closer ties to Europe.
So long as we don't get a 1992 repeat. Imagine, five more years of this lot.0 -
Sadly I think you are correct. And, again sadly, the Israeli settlers will keep nibbling away at Palestinian villages on the West Bank, without any serious criticism from the outside world.FeersumEnjineeya said:
The most likely outcome is that Israel hammers Gaza for a while longer before declaring victory and pulling out, leaving the rest of the world to pick up the pieces. The blockade will continue, and Israel will erect very solid defences between itself and Gaza with extremely limited border crossings. The Gazans will carry living in enforced poverty, and the world will gradually forget about them again.DecrepiterJohnL said:
I do not foresee a wider war but the odd lone wolf terrorist attack would be no great surprise. Thankfully in this country mostly calm heads have prevailed so far.Leon said:A grim account of Jewish settler violence in the West Bank
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/middleeast/west-bank-palestinians-israel-settlers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don’t see this getting anywhere but much worse. And the chances of a wider war expand daily1 -
Until Hamas rebuilds and launches its next attack on Israel again, only a genuine 2 state solution worksFeersumEnjineeya said:
The most likely outcome is that Israel hammers Gaza for a while longer before declaring victory and pulling out, leaving the rest of the world to pick up the pieces. The blockade will continue, and Israel will erect very solid defences between itself and Gaza with extremely limited border crossings. The Gazans will carry living in enforced poverty, and the world will gradually forget about them again.DecrepiterJohnL said:
I do not foresee a wider war but the odd lone wolf terrorist attack would be no great surprise. Thankfully in this country mostly calm heads have prevailed so far.Leon said:A grim account of Jewish settler violence in the West Bank
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/middleeast/west-bank-palestinians-israel-settlers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don’t see this getting anywhere but much worse. And the chances of a wider war expand daily0 -
Your truly more than old enough to remember, how vehemently Ronald Reagan, his entourage and party, used to deny that HE died HIS hair.Nigelb said:Haley enjoying twisting the knife.
Not a bad effort.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/02/haley-desantis-2024-00124962
...“Are you wearing higher heels than Ron DeSantis next week at the debate so you can look taller than him on the stage?” Charlamagne Tha God, who is guest hosting “The Daily Show,” asked Haley Wednesday night.
“I don’t know. We’ll have to figure that out. I can tell you I’ve always talked about my high heels. I’ve never hid that from anybody,” Haley responded. “I’ve always said, don’t wear them if you can’t run in them. So we’ll see if he can run in them.”
DeSantis’ campaign didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment, but has vehemently denied the heel accusations in the past. In a POLITICO article this week about the matter, a DeSantis campaign spokesperson called it a “hit piece” and said the presidential candidate doesn’t pad his boots...
However, as recounted by LA Times:
"Ronald Reagan always denied he hued his hair. But author Kitty Kelley scooped the world and revealed in her unauthorized biography about Nancy Reagan more than 10 years ago that the president’s gray roots were dyed regularly--in secret, of course, and by Nancy’s hairdresser, Julius--since 1968. When Reagan’s head was shaved for surgery after he left the White House, his hair grew back gray. Still, his handlers denied that he had previously colored it."
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2002-may-24-lv-dye24-story.html
0 -
'Israelites have always been at war with Canaanites. Since the beginning of your life, since the beginning of the Party, since the beginning of history, the war has continued without a break, always the same war. Do you remember that?'
Israelites = Oceania, Canaanites = East Asia0 -
Is the West Bank plus the Gaza Strip able to function as a viable state?HYUFD said:
Until Hamas rebuilds and launches its next attack on Israel again, only a genuine 2 state solution worksFeersumEnjineeya said:
The most likely outcome is that Israel hammers Gaza for a while longer before declaring victory and pulling out, leaving the rest of the world to pick up the pieces. The blockade will continue, and Israel will erect very solid defences between itself and Gaza with extremely limited border crossings. The Gazans will carry living in enforced poverty, and the world will gradually forget about them again.DecrepiterJohnL said:
I do not foresee a wider war but the odd lone wolf terrorist attack would be no great surprise. Thankfully in this country mostly calm heads have prevailed so far.Leon said:A grim account of Jewish settler violence in the West Bank
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/middleeast/west-bank-palestinians-israel-settlers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don’t see this getting anywhere but much worse. And the chances of a wider war expand daily0 -
Are you suggesting that she will surprise on the upside?Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.
And where have we heard that before...0 -
The most likely escalation - at least at first - is on the northern border. Say Hezbollah wades in, with the assistance of Iran. Hezbollah are a potent force, and they will worry Israel. So Israel responds by bombarding southern LebanonMalmesbury said:A
Not sure how a wider war gets started.Leon said:
No. To my mind you can only say you "called it" if you go against the prevailing wisdom, or you challenge some consensuskinabalu said:
So if it does get much worse will this mean you've 'called it'?Leon said:A grim account of Jewish settler violence in the West Bank
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/middleeast/west-bank-palestinians-israel-settlers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don’t see this getting anywhere but much worse. And the chances of a wider war expand daily
I did that with Covid, Lab Leak, Ukraine, AI, and others (in my extremely humble opinion)
I'm hardly alone in fearing a wider war springing from this dreadful Gaza conflict
The Arab world doesn’t want another standup war with Israel. Aside from the nuclear thing, the history is not good. Most of their leaders are “Presidents For Life”. Loosing a war is quite possibly fatal.
And they have the recent evidence that a lot of their Russian toys are not exactly winners.
Israel could strike Iran, I suppose, but to what end?
Then you have a wider war? Who knows how it unfurls from there
I don't think this is probable, but it is certainly very possible, and the possibiity grows as the nightmare in Gaza continues (ditto the West Bank)0 -
No. And frankly global diplomats serious about peace need to be more imaginative about their solutions.OldKingCole said:
Is the West Bank plus the Gaza Strip able to function as a viable state?HYUFD said:
Until Hamas rebuilds and launches its next attack on Israel again, only a genuine 2 state solution worksFeersumEnjineeya said:
The most likely outcome is that Israel hammers Gaza for a while longer before declaring victory and pulling out, leaving the rest of the world to pick up the pieces. The blockade will continue, and Israel will erect very solid defences between itself and Gaza with extremely limited border crossings. The Gazans will carry living in enforced poverty, and the world will gradually forget about them again.DecrepiterJohnL said:
I do not foresee a wider war but the odd lone wolf terrorist attack would be no great surprise. Thankfully in this country mostly calm heads have prevailed so far.Leon said:A grim account of Jewish settler violence in the West Bank
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/middleeast/west-bank-palestinians-israel-settlers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don’t see this getting anywhere but much worse. And the chances of a wider war expand daily2 -
Shades of Samson . . . and Boris?
NYT ($) - The Shearing of Sam Bankman-Fried
The disgraced crypto king, on trial for financial fraud, takes the stand. But his hair tells its own story.
Imagine if Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the crypto trading firm FTX and defendant in one of the largest financial fraud trials in history, was actually named Samson, rather than Samuel. Like the biblical character, Mr. Bankman-Fried’s symbolic shearing for his courtroom appearance may become a fabled reflection of promise brought low in the tales to come of our digital age.
As Mr. Bankman-Fried took the stand on Friday in federal court in Manhattan to begin testifying in his own defense — to explain his actions as having been made in good faith, even if they had bad results — it was hard not to think that his newly cropped do, created by a fellow jail inmate, according to a person familiar with the situation, and paired with a subdued gray suit, white shirt and purple tie, wasn’t just a dress code choice, but a metaphor. An apologia writ in hair about what happens when a muscular intellect is married to frail corporate governance. . . .
. . . from the beginning it was by Mr. Bankman-Fried’s hair that so many knew him. The wild halo of dark curls that looked as if it had never met a brush and, according to Michael Lewis in “Going Infinite,” his new book about Mr. Bankman-Fried and FTX, resembled “the hairdo of a lunatic.” The hair that suggested Einstein, electric sockets and some sort of giant brain underneath. . . .
But now the hair is no more. . .
Without the hair, in his playing-by-the-rules get-up, Mr. Bankman-Fried seems kind of … average. This guy — a criminal mastermind? Look at him! He looks like the nerd next door. He clearly did not intend to defraud his investors. He is trying hard to obey the rules. He’s going to, in the words of the George Thorogood song, “get a haircut and get a real job.” . . .0 -
Braverman is modern politics at its worst - shallow, cynical, posturing and incompetent. No doubt she will go far.Leon said:
I was actually a severe Truss sceptic - go back and look at my remarks during the first leadership debate - "she's unbelievably bad" etcBurgessian said:
Hmm. I seem to recall you were a Truss proponent.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.
However, tbf, Braverman, though I'm not keen, is far more persuasive that Truss and almost certainly possesses a political antennae which La Truss manifestly didn't. I think she could, as you say, confound the commentariat with her direct no-nonsense approach.
OTOH I wonder if she will be able to hold the party together. May be seen as the "final straw" by the moderate end of the parliamentary party.
However I did lapse for about two days into a fit of insane deluded optimism about Truss. It was a stern lesson to myself in the follies of Hopecasting. I so WANTED to believe the Tories had found a sharp, smart, charismatic, Leaver leader, able to sort out the mess of Boris and Co, that I convinced myself, for about 48 hours, that Truss was it
Not my best moment
Braverman feels different. Sane, grounded, intelligent. She has firm right wing views that make her anathema to many, but she doesn't strike me as mad and she has a lot of self belief - and quite an impressive backstory, educationally. She really isn't dim - an accusation hurled at her, absurdly
Who knows. Badenoch comes over as a touch lightweight. Mordaunt is odd, telegenic but odd. And also lightweight
Those seem to be the main three contenders, ATM, it would be marv if someone new and dazzling emerged..2 -
On the header, it strikes me that rather a lot of weight is being attached to the specific findings of an individual poll. Other evidence is available, including a year's worth of regular opinion polls and local and by-election results, that suggests that the Tories are well and truly fucked.
And, of course, polls can change. In both directions.2 -
Her speech at conference was the only half-decent showing by a member of the Cabinet and showed serious intent.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, never misunderestimate a Cambridge educated lawyer, they are the best, particularly ones of Asian heritage.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.0 -
To endanger life?Luckyguy1983 said:
Her speech at conference was the only half-decent showing by a member of the Cabinet and showed serious intent.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, never misunderestimate a Cambridge educated lawyer, they are the best, particularly ones of Asian heritage.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.0 -
Yes, if Hamas is eliminated from the latter, otherwise war will continue indefinitelyOldKingCole said:
Is the West Bank plus the Gaza Strip able to function as a viable state?HYUFD said:
Until Hamas rebuilds and launches its next attack on Israel again, only a genuine 2 state solution worksFeersumEnjineeya said:
The most likely outcome is that Israel hammers Gaza for a while longer before declaring victory and pulling out, leaving the rest of the world to pick up the pieces. The blockade will continue, and Israel will erect very solid defences between itself and Gaza with extremely limited border crossings. The Gazans will carry living in enforced poverty, and the world will gradually forget about them again.DecrepiterJohnL said:
I do not foresee a wider war but the odd lone wolf terrorist attack would be no great surprise. Thankfully in this country mostly calm heads have prevailed so far.Leon said:A grim account of Jewish settler violence in the West Bank
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/world/middleeast/west-bank-palestinians-israel-settlers.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
I don’t see this getting anywhere but much worse. And the chances of a wider war expand daily0 -
Lawyers term that mens rea.Luckyguy1983 said:
Her speech at conference was the only half-decent showing by a member of the Cabinet and showed serious intent.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, never misunderestimate a Cambridge educated lawyer, they are the best, particularly ones of Asian heritage.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.1 -
What, even better than Penny's lengthy and repetitive "Stand Up And Fight" performance?Luckyguy1983 said:
Her speech at conference was the only half-decent showing by a member of the Cabinet and showed serious intent.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, never misunderestimate a Cambridge educated lawyer, they are the best, particularly ones of Asian heritage.Leon said:
My vote is braverman and I reckon she could be much more popular than the commentariat (which despises her) complacently assumesBurgessian said:
A big problem facing the Tories is their unpopularity with women - which is a big change from the normal. They will need to address that in opposition with a leadership team that demonstrably understands issues that concern female voters - and that means avoiding like the plague the sort of people they have elected in the past such as Tory boys (Hague, Cameron), wonks (Sunak), or idealogues (IDS).Leon said:
Agreed. But to really capitalise on the Starmer “meh” factor the Tories need a really good, charismatic leader as a contrastnumbertwelve said:The thing that has given me pause is the really, really negative numbers for Starmer in that sample.
That isn’t just a “meh, he’s ok”. That’s a full scale dislike. If that in any way holds then the Tory challenge is to try and weaponise that and get those people out to vote.
That’s not Sunak (who is OK, but not inspiring) neither is it any of the leading candidates to replace him
The Tories need to go into opposition and find a hidden Blair or Thatcher
Who does that leave? I would respectfully suggest a front-bench dominated by women of whom the Tories have quite a few options: Mordaunt, Badenoch, Donelan, Keegan to name but four. (Maybe not Braverman). With one of them leader, and the others in leading positions, post 2024 politics could become quite interesting.0
