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Now the knives are out for Hun – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,346
    edited October 2023
    ydoethur said:

    Which must doubly annoying for Starmer given he’s actually quite right on both counts. Right to condemn Hamas for their raid and right to demand humanitarian aid for the people of Gaza.
    Which is Sunak's position as well...the problem obviously for Starmer is lots in his party don't agree.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,346

    Israel calling off a ground invasion isn't necessarily a defeat for Israel. The only way the conflict gets resolved is if both sides tire of fighting and move to dialogue. That way, everyone wins.

    Now I’m skeptical that the conditions exist for dialogue. And I expect they will not for some time, if, sadly, ever. But what this event has done has reminded us all of the terrible situation that exists in the Middle East, and maybe just maybe the eyes of the world may refocus on it, and reinvest energy in working to resolve it. A ground occupation and further bloodshed could potentially push that goal further back. It is tricky to say.

    It would be a good thing for Israel. It would stop them getting bogged down in a long and pointless war that will inevitably attract criticism for numerous civilian casualties and it further undermines Netanyahu’s hard man image and speeds his departure. Making a peace deal in the wider ME easier.

    What’s not to like?

    Hence why if this is Biden he’s played a blinder.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Good thread:

    From the debate in the Lords yesterday on Israel & Gaza. Guglielmo Verdirame: professor of international law at the King’s College London.
    “There has been a lot of talk about proportionality in the law on self-defence. I refer to the words that the noble Lord, Lord Pannick,
    1/
    https://x.com/scynic1/status/1717128708757057743?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,058
    Leon said:

    I am beginning to think this invasion is never going to happen. It is too dangerous for Israel, they easily risk getting bogged down in a hideous unwinnable urban war, and it is extremely likely to kick off a wider war, starting with a Hezbollah incursion from the north (and Israel has already been burned by Hezbollah)

    This feels like an immense strategic defeat for Israel. They have been brutally attacked, yet cannot get at the attacker. Hamas will be wildly celebrating
    Hamas allegedly have 500km of tunnels under Gaza.
    How do you fight through them? It's worse than urban warfare.
    You could flood or gas them I suppose but that is where the hostages are.
    You could go for the leadership sheltering in Qatar. Decapitation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,346
    edited October 2023
    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,086

    Israel has been existentially menaced from the moment of its creation. It has hostile actors on all sides. The way to peace and its lasting security is hideously complex, but to me it is far from clear that invading Gaza is that way.
    I think it was Trump (of all people) who asked what winning looked like in Afghanistan. Then proceeded to fuck it up worse, of course.

    But the initial question stands. Think of it as the elevator pitch for a war - who is going to get what out of this action?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Players of 3-dimensional war chess will be wondering if this will mean Ukraine too can have upgraded American air defences. Earlier Israel had blocked Iron Dome exports.

    ETA I'm not sure this necessarily weakens Netanyahu. Aiui he has been less hawkish on the ground invasion than some.
    There was an Israeli minister on RT English the other week, who went totally off on the Russians, and said that Israel is now clearly on the side of Ukraine, and won’t stop until Russia are put back in their box.

    Until the last few weeks, Israel was doing its best to be neutral on that conflict, although covertly supporting Ukraine by eg. allowing US exports of shared technology.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,346
    edited October 2023
    kinabalu said:

    Yep. Joe does ok for a senile old guy doesn't he.
    I think its more the professionals who worked under Obama are back in the white house e.g. Blinken and its all relative, compared to chaos Trumpian stuff who would be threatening to bomb Iran one day, then hug it out the next.
  • TBF given what's happened, Israel was correct not to send Iron Dome. They need all the interceptors they have.

    I also think that Israel's rather craven attitude towards Russia will change. Israel will now be in Ukraine's camp.
    Aiui it was not that Israel did not send Iron Dome but that they blocked America from sending Iron Dome (a joint US-Israel enterprise) to Ukraine. America is now sending more Iron Dome batteries to Israel.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,086

    I think its more the professionals who worked under Obama are back in the white house e.g. Blinken and its all relative, compared to chaos Trumpian stuff.
    In a sane world, the boss doesn't do the work himself. He delegates - his job is to hire the right people and manage them with a light touch to do the job and play nice with each other. And to set high level strategic goals.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    The last time that happened, her management put some very expensive media lawyers on the case.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/20/rachel-riley-damages-over-ex-corbyn-aide-tweet

    https://news.sky.com/story/countdowns-rachel-riley-awarded-50-000-in-libel-damages-from-political-blogger-12748737
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,278

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    Let's hope those abusing her get arrested.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,346
    edited October 2023
    Sandpit said:

    The last time that happened, her management put some very expensive media lawyers on the case.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/20/rachel-riley-damages-over-ex-corbyn-aide-tweet

    https://news.sky.com/story/countdowns-rachel-riley-awarded-50-000-in-libel-damages-from-political-blogger-12748737
    She has become this lightening rod for antisemities, anti-zionists, and corbynite cult to pile on her anytime she speaks on the issue of Jewish heritage or Israel.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    Leon said:

    Calling it. A nuke
    At Dukes Hotel you're only allowed two martinis, a very sensible rule. Are you on your third now?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,346
    Just about to finish a rather nice five course meal sitting outside by the swimming pool.

    I shall post the obligatory picture of the final course in approx 3 minutes. I hope everyone can possess their souls in patience that long.

    No wine though as I’ve already drunk it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668

    I just logged onto the tw@tters

    well that was your first mistake..
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    "Both U.S. and Israeli Officials have now Confirmed that Prime Minister Netanyahu has Agreed to Delay the Invasion of the Gaza Strip until the U.S. Military is able to move more assets into the Region including at least 12 Air Defense Systems, for the Interception of Cruise and Ballistic Missiles as well as Rockets and Drone, which are set to be spread across multiple Countries in the Middle East including Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE."


    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717205979056529537?s=20
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,279

    She has become this lightening rod for antisemities, anti-zionists, and corbynite cult to pile on her anytime she speaks on this issue.
    And the problem is, the three become indistinguishable.

    The stuff she gets thrown at her is horrific. It's amazing people saying some of the stuff can even pretend to think they're on the side of righteousness.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    TOPPING said:

    At Dukes Hotel you're only allowed two martinis, a very sensible rule. Are you on your third now?
    Haven't even started!

    I have had a martini at Dukes, however, and IIRC they are immensely strong. A sensible rule
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,279

    Aiui it was not that Israel did not send Iron Dome but that they blocked America from sending Iron Dome (a joint US-Israel enterprise) to Ukraine. America is now sending more Iron Dome batteries to Israel.
    A bit like the Germans initially with Leo2's, or the Swiss still with several weapons systems and ammunition...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276

    And the problem is, the three become indistinguishable.

    The stuff she gets thrown at her is horrific. It's amazing people saying some of the stuff can even pretend to think they're on the side of righteousness.
    Forget righteousness I truly believe this is a a psychological issue. They are not fully sane.

    They are so tribal that they attack Jews in the UK as though they have anything to do with what is going on in the Middle East. They have more ire against Rachel Riley than Hamas murderers. WTF.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    edited October 2023
    148grss said:

    Again, I am going to defer to people whose job it is to define these things:

    https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2022/02/israels-system-of-apartheid/
    I don't think we should defer our opinions to others, even charities or well meaning groups.

    Obviously we need to take account of expert views - if they are actually experts which is not always the same as those claiming to be experts - and naturally we'll be guided by views of those we trust, it's not possible to robotically analyse everything with cold logic, but we shouldn't in essence delegate our opinions to another person or group. We do that too much, and it can lead to embarrassment when said delegator reveals, inevitably at some stage, to not be worthy of our trust on something.

    On the apartheid question I don't think it's necessarily a helpful term to use in any case, since things could conceivably be very bad without matching apartheid's set up and details, in which case it would in fact undermine criticism to use it as some kind of casual, looser definition, when that is pointed out. It's like if someone criticising something as illegal because they think it is awful, then if it turns out it is in fact lawful that might overshadow that it still is really bad.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,346
    As promised, because I know the suspense was killing you all.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    She has become this lightening rod for antisemities, anti-zionists, and corbynite cult to pile on her anytime she speaks on the issue of Jewish heritage or Israel.
    Yes, very wierd. Not quite sure why they pick specifically on a totally harmless TV presenter and mathematician, rather than anyone actually involved in the situation.
  • Sandpit said:

    There was an Israeli minister on RT English the other week, who went totally off on the Russians, and said that Israel is now clearly on the side of Ukraine, and won’t stop until Russia are put back in their box.

    Until the last few weeks, Israel was doing its best to be neutral on that conflict, although covertly supporting Ukraine by eg. allowing US exports of shared technology.
    You get RT in the Sandpit? We haven't been able to get RT on Freeview since the invasion of Ukraine.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,416

    Robert Reich
    @RBReich
    ·
    39m
    Rep. Mike Johnson, who is the latest GOP speaker nominee, was called "the most important architect of the Electoral College objections” to the 2020 election.

    If Republicans somehow manage to make him speaker, they will be fully endorsing Trump’s assault on our republic.

    https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1717214850743480502
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,606
    .

    Which is Sunak's position as well...the problem obviously for Starmer is lots in his party don't agree.
    It’s all a bit performative. It doesn’t matter what Starmer, or even Sunak, thinks. They’re not the leaders of Israel or Hamas or the US or Egypt. All this demanding that people with no power to change the situation say the right words about it does very little to help the situation.

    I mean, I’d rather neither Sunak or Starmer either applaud Hamas or call for ethnic cleansing, but they’re not going to, are they? They’re not stupid. They’re going to say something consistent with British foreign policy on Israel/Palestine for the last several decades, but slightly more or slightly less focusing on the suffering on one side or the other.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    Neither shocking nor unprecedented, I fear.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    You get RT in the Sandpit? We haven't been able to get RT on Freeview since the invasion of Ukraine.
    Good question, probably yes but it’s not on my TV.

    This was the story:
    https://www.israeltoday.co.il/read/israeli-official-warns-russia-you-will-pay-for-backing-hamas/
    “Russia is supporting the enemies of Israel. Russia is supporting Nazi people who want to commit genocide on us and Russia will pay the price. We’re gonna win this war. Afterwards, we’re not forgetting what you’re doing, we’re not forgetting, we will come, we will make sure Ukraine wins. We will make sure that you pay the price for what you have done, you as Russia.”
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,279
    Stocky said:

    Forget righteousness I truly believe this is a a psychological issue. They are not fully sane.

    They are so tribal that they attack Jews in the UK as though they have anything to do with what is going on in the Middle East. They have more ire against Rachel Riley than Hamas murderers. WTF.
    I particularly despair of the sort of poster who claims to be Jewish (I have no way of knowing if it is true or not), who then reels off a list of pro-Israel media Jews and says: "Not an ounce of humanity between them."

    Which is the sort of phrase you would expect Nazis to say about Jews...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,346
    edited October 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Yes, very wierd. Not quite sure why they pick specifically on a totally harmless TV presenter and mathematician, rather than anyone actually involved in the situation.
    Well she has very strong opinions on this issue, but given the disgusting abuse she gets anytime she talks about it, it rather proves her point.

    But other than that all she seems to talk about if the footy and countdown. Certainly not gone down the middle-life crisis tweeting 100 times a day wading into every single political issue of the day, which obviously causes the tw@ttersphere to like / share / retw@tter / abuse you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    kinabalu said:

    Yep. Joe does ok for a senile old guy doesn't he.
    I can't deny he does look and sound frail. He has gaffes (but always has done). But even if someone thinks he is some kind of front man only, his administration are able to get results.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,252
    Here's detail on Mike Johnson I hadn't seen before: "One underreported fact about Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), the Republican nominee for speaker, according to Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.): He co-founded the bipartisan Honor and Civility Caucus with Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) in 2017 in his first year in Congress.

    The caucus aimed to encourage disagreement “in an agreeable manner” and “to help reverse the increasing divisions in and coarsening of our culture,” Johnson and Crist said in a statement at the time. (Crist left Congress last year.)"
    (Links omitted.)
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/25/house-speaker-vote/#link-AOA2XQP52BFVXPVWPKIFPM7UMA
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,394
    Leon said:

    Calling it. A nuke
    The only reason to advise people near Gaza to stay in their shelters is because something it going to happen in Gaza. And the Israelis are not stupid enough to nuke something in the immediate neighbourhood that would risk dropping fallout all over their own land.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,086
    TOPPING said:

    At Dukes Hotel you're only allowed two martinis, a very sensible rule. Are you on your third now?
    I and a friend were allowed to try for 4 by the staff. We managed 3.5 on occasion, I think.
  • I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    Mum's convinced she's had some work done.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,346

    You get RT in the Sandpit? We haven't been able to get RT on Freeview since the invasion of Ukraine.
    The disturbing implication of that is you have been paying to get it instead.
  • ydoethur said:

    The disturbing implication of that is you have been paying to get it instead.
    Nah, we're just cheapskates merely paying the Licence Fee :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,243
    Leon said:

    I'm not sure about huge win for Biden, it is definitely bad news for Netanyahu. First he lets Oct 7 happen on his watch, now "Mr Security" Bibi Netanyahu, after bloviaing about revenge, has to stand down his army? And Israel stares at him in disbelief

    I predict he will be gone soon, possibly very soon
    Netanyahu deserves to go for (a) secretly supporting Hamas for domestic political reasons and (b) failing to keep intelligence eyes on them.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,959

    In a sane world, the boss doesn't do the work himself. He delegates - his job is to hire the right people and manage them with a light touch to do the job and play nice with each other. And to set high level strategic goals.
    That's why Reagan was pretty successful. He knew instinctively what course to set and had able people to do the grunt work. A sunny optimistic personality helped. Biden not unlike him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413

    Here's detail on Mike Johnson I hadn't seen before: "One underreported fact about Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), the Republican nominee for speaker, according to Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.): He co-founded the bipartisan Honor and Civility Caucus with Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) in 2017 in his first year in Congress.

    The caucus aimed to encourage disagreement “in an agreeable manner” and “to help reverse the increasing divisions in and coarsening of our culture,” Johnson and Crist said in a statement at the time. (Crist left Congress last year.)"
    (Links omitted.)
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/25/house-speaker-vote/#link-AOA2XQP52BFVXPVWPKIFPM7UMA

    Sounds underreported because it obviously did not work.

    But then a lot of the GOP pre and shortly after Trump would still rouse themselves to attempt to behave differently and even criticise things from time to time.

    Now ugly, coarse language they once would have shied away from is just day to day.

    Plus, once you support a political coup attempt would honor and civility still matter to someone?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450
    Roger said:

    An appeal to the moderators. Those of us who come on here to read about politics and other current affairs are being drowned out by two or three posters with an unhealthy and certainly unattractive blood lust who are simply using this site to revel in it.

    Sure if posters have an understanding or a knowledge of the politics of the area or how it might affect domestic politics fine but otherwise just give it up. Many of us know people who it affects very directly from all sides and to read the thoughts of Jessop and co is just REALLY offensive. They wouldn't know a Jew if he tripped over one still less an Arab.

    Fuck off Roger. Josiah Jessop is a thoroughly moderate poster.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,346
    rcs1000 said:

    Netanyahu deserves to go for (a) secretly supporting Hamas for domestic political reasons and (b) failing to keep intelligence eyes on them.
    He also deserves to go for corruption, abuse of office, damaging Israel’s democracy and being in general a grade A Tristram.*

    *Rhyming slang, after a certain Tristram Hunt.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,825
    ydoethur said:

    As promised, because I know the suspense was killing you all.

    Delightful. And from here, my third Rkatsiteli on the balcony of our cottage at Mestvireni farm, after a lengthy tasting of various Qvevri wines plus peach brandy and chacha, in the middle of the Alazani valley in Eastern Georgia. The owner recently got kicked off Airbnb for refusing to receive Russian guests. Quite an accolade.

    The twinkling lights in the distance are the foot of the Great Caucasus. By day you can see the whole snowcapped ridge across the horizon. On the left the peaks are in Chechnya, on the right in Dagestan.



  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,298
    edited October 2023

    .

    It’s all a bit performative. It doesn’t matter what Starmer, or even Sunak, thinks. They’re not the leaders of Israel or Hamas or the US or Egypt. All this demanding that people with no power to change the situation say the right words about it does very little to help the situation.

    I mean, I’d rather neither Sunak or Starmer either applaud Hamas or call for ethnic cleansing, but they’re not going to, are they? They’re not stupid. They’re going to say something consistent with British foreign policy on Israel/Palestine for the last several decades, but slightly more or slightly less focusing on the suffering on one side or the other.
    UK politicians have a particular habit of excessively handwringing and wailing “we must do something” every time an international crisis erupts, without ever it seems to me fully comprehending that Western foreign policy is by and large shaped by the US and while we can make the odd representation here and there and can increase or decrease the level of our investment in these things, we are not fundamentally going to have completely independent agency, based on the realpolitik of 21st century diplomatic relations and our alliances.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450

    I actually dont think it would be difficult at the moment. Enough of the country want hospitals and schools to work and understand something has to change. But it needs someone who can be clear, patient and consistent on the messaging.
    There’s no lack of tax revenue. But, it seems to spent terribly.
  • https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/25/pro-israel-rallies-allowed-in-india-but-palestine-solidarity-sees-crackdown?traffic_source=rss

    "On Saturday, dozens of supporters of a retired Indian army soldier travelled 182km (113 miles) to reach the Israeli embassy in New Delhi where they offered to go to Israel to fight against the Palestinians in Gaza."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,346
    edited October 2023

    Well she has very strong opinions on this issue, but given the disgusting abuse she gets anytime she talks about it, it rather proves her point.

    But other than that all she seems to talk about if the footy and countdown. Certainly not gone down the middle-life crisis tweeting 100 times a day wading into every single political issue of the day, which obviously causes the tw@ttersphere to like / share / retw@tter / abuse you.
    She’d never fit in on PB then. :smile:
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,825
    Foss said:

    The only reason to advise people near Gaza to stay in their shelters is because something it going to happen in Gaza. And the Israelis are not stupid enough to nuke something in the immediate neighbourhood that would risk dropping fallout all over their own land.
    My assumption is that the last few days have been shaping operations and that they will launch a land invasion after all. We shall see. The invasion itself might ironically be less damaging to civilian life than the bombing if people have already fled. But I expect it’ll be a military bloodbath.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,658
    A warning for @Leon:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67217729

    (Did you try it in the end?)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    edited October 2023
    The lawyer's excuse is clearly nonsense (if Trump was talking about Cohen he'd not need to say 'perhaps' more partisan, for a start), but what are courts going to do about this sort of thing?

    The Trump remark at issue:

    "If we had a jury it would have been fair, at least—even if it was a somewhat negative jury—because no negative jury would vote against me. But this judge will. Because this judge is a very partisan judge, with a person who's very partisan sitting alongside of him, perhaps even much more partisan than he is."...

    Trump's lawyer Chris Kise claimed his client was talking about Cohen, not the law clerk. (The clerk sits closer and on the same level as the judge.)

    @KlasfeldReports

    They're clearly very worried about jailing Trump for violating conditions or potentially threatening witnesses, but he's going to keep pushing on that line, daring them to do something. He obviously cannot stop himself from doing it, and free speech, stronger in america than here and stronger for politicians, surely is not a shield for a pre-trial defendent to say anything they want.

    Of course, there is one judge he doesn't rail against, in the secret documents case, and he's getting more traction there, maybe he should try it more often.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,455
    carnforth said:

    A warning for @Leon:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67217729

    (Did you try it in the end?)

    That seems a very personal question.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,346
    By the way Sunil, I was thinking of you earlier as this popped up on my news feed:

    Leek and Rudyard Railway owner selling up for retirement
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-67215733

    Have you got your bid in yet?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,128

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    Well let's all thank Mr Musk for his commitment to Free Speech, no matter how vile.
  • ydoethur said:

    By the way Sunil, I was thinking of you earlier as this popped up on my news feed:

    Leek and Rudyard Railway owner selling up for retirement
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-67215733

    Have you got your bid in yet?

    Unfortunatement, no, as I haven't been on that particular railway yet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,243
    ydoethur said:

    He also deserves to go for corruption, abuse of office, damaging Israel’s democracy and being in general a grade A Tristram.*

    *Rhyming slang, after a certain Tristram Hunt.
    Who was in my year at Trinity. (And a Mr Kwarteng was only just behind us.)

    It makes me really quite... quite... something.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,455
    TimS said:

    My assumption is that the last few days have been shaping operations and that they will launch a land invasion after all. We shall see. The invasion itself might ironically be less damaging to civilian life than the bombing if people have already fled. But I expect it’ll be a military bloodbath.
    I've been mulling over the issue of whether the people of a state should be held liable for that state's actions. I think I've decided that they should. I thought this about Putin's actions, but it's harder to really tie Hamas to the Palestinians en mass. Nonetheless I conclude that they should be held to account for their leaders actions even if they have a very weak influence on who those leaders should be.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Foxy said:

    Well let's all thank Mr Musk for his commitment to Free Speech, no matter how vile.
    The only thing that could possibly be making the whole situation worse right now, would be a large group of highly partisan moderators on Twitter, deciding on a whim what’s acceptable and not, and shutting down accounts according to their own prejudices.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,579
    TimS said:

    Delightful. And from here, my third Rkatsiteli on the balcony of our cottage at Mestvireni farm, after a lengthy tasting of various Qvevri wines plus peach brandy and chacha, in the middle of the Alazani valley in Eastern Georgia. The owner recently got kicked off Airbnb for refusing to receive Russian guests. Quite an accolade.

    The twinkling lights in the distance are the foot of the Great Caucasus. By day you can see the whole snowcapped ridge across the horizon. On the left the peaks are in Chechnya, on the right in Dagestan.



    Fabulous. Well jel

    I love the exoticism of Georgia

    And the khinkale! With white pepper!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,606
    kle4 said:

    The lawyer's excuse is clearly nonsense (if Trump was talking about Cohen he'd not need to say 'perhaps' more partisan, for a start), but what are courts going to do about this sort of thing?

    The Trump remark at issue:

    "If we had a jury it would have been fair, at least—even if it was a somewhat negative jury—because no negative jury would vote against me. But this judge will. Because this judge is a very partisan judge, with a person who's very partisan sitting alongside of him, perhaps even much more partisan than he is."...

    Trump's lawyer Chris Kise claimed his client was talking about Cohen, not the law clerk. (The clerk sits closer and on the same level as the judge.)

    @KlasfeldReports

    They're clearly very worried about jailing Trump for violating conditions or potentially threatening witnesses, but he's going to keep pushing on that line, daring them to do something. He obviously cannot stop himself from doing it, and free speech, stronger in america than here and stronger for politicians, surely is not a shield for a pre-trial defendent to say anything they want.

    Of course, there is one judge he doesn't rail against, in the secret documents case, and he's getting more traction there, maybe he should try it more often.

    Of course, there’s no jury because Trump’s lawyers didn’t ask for a jury.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,279
    Sandpit said:

    The only thing that could possibly be making the whole situation worse right now, would be a large group of highly partisan moderators on Twitter, deciding on a whim what’s acceptable and not, and shutting down accounts according to their own prejudices.
    They're in a worse situation; one where one man (Musk) decides on a whim what’s acceptable and not, and shuts down accounts according to his own prejudices of the day, all whilst a bunch of brainless Musk fanbouis cheer him on...
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953

    You get RT in the Sandpit? We haven't been able to get RT on Freeview since the invasion of Ukraine.
    One of their more idiotic decisions. I've no love of Russia, but do they honestly think our democracy will collapse if we are exposed to what the other side thinks?

    Sometimes, the government seems hell bent on doing absolutely everything it can to increase VPN use. Do they have shares in one of the providers...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,139
    I'm calling it: Netanyahu is not about to nuke Gaza.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953

    You get RT in the Sandpit? We haven't been able to get RT on Freeview since the invasion of Ukraine.
    One of their more idiotic decisions. I've no love of Russia, but do they honestly think our democracy will collapse if we are exposed to what the other side thinks?

    Sometimes, the government seems hell bent on doing absolutely everything it can to increase VPN use. Do they have shares in one of the providers...
  • Dem Bones dem Bones gonna be suspended.

    The Commons has agreed that Peter Bone be suspended from the House for six weeks from today to Tuesday 5 December, without a division.

    This suspension will trigger a recall petition in his Wellingborough constituency
    .

    https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1717231827507650960
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,477
    .
    kle4 said:

    Sounds underreported because it obviously did not work.

    But then a lot of the GOP pre and shortly after Trump would still rouse themselves to attempt to behave differently and even criticise things from time to time.

    Now ugly, coarse language they once would have shied away from is just day to day.

    Plus, once you support a political coup attempt would honor and civility still matter to someone?
    Violating your public oath - that he took to uphold the constitution - does not seem particularly civil behaviour to me.

    Or indeed agreeable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    Foxy said:

    Well let's all thank Mr Musk for his commitment to Free Speech, no matter how vile.
    If only he did have such a committment. I'm sure lots of anti-Musk stuff is still on there, but he's taken action when he wants to. Now instead of an imperfect team it's what he wants goes.

    Which would be fine, its his company, but I wouldn't even ironically suggest his free speech beliefs are sincere.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,606
    Foxy said:

    Well let's all thank Mr Musk for his commitment to Free Speech, no matter how vile.
    It wasn’t great before Musk: https://www.adl.org/resources/report/quantifying-hate-year-anti-semitism-twitter

    It’s got worse with Musk: https://www.adl.org/resources/blog/twitter-not-enforcing-its-policies-antisemitic-content
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413

    Dem Bones dem Bones gonna be suspended.

    The Commons has agreed that Peter Bone be suspended from the House for six weeks from today to Tuesday 5 December, without a division.

    This suspension will trigger a recall petition in his Wellingborough constituency
    .

    https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1717231827507650960

    Standard whinge from him previously - procedurally incorrect, unfair because they don't believe me, etc etc.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,139
    Andy_JS said:

    Justin Trudeau in trouble in Canada. The opposition Conservatives now have an average 14% lead in the polls.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_federal_election#Pre-campaign_period

    Might keep moving around the Anglosphere.

    Then I can experience continuous Conservative glory.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,477
    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: We have scheduled a time for the ground operation to begin. This decision was made with IDF Chief of Staff and the war cabinet.
    https://twitter.com/ywnreporter/status/1717230483036123292
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,606
    Omnium said:

    I've been mulling over the issue of whether the people of a state should be held liable for that state's actions. I think I've decided that they should. I thought this about Putin's actions, but it's harder to really tie Hamas to the Palestinians en mass. Nonetheless I conclude that they should be held to account for their leaders actions even if they have a very weak influence on who those leaders should be.
    Collective punishment is a war crime: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_punishment

    We’ve got enough people on PB in favour of war crimes. Please don’t be another.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,825
    Omnium said:

    I've been mulling over the issue of whether the people of a state should be held liable for that state's actions. I think I've decided that they should. I thought this about Putin's actions, but it's harder to really tie Hamas to the Palestinians en mass. Nonetheless I conclude that they should be held to account for their leaders actions even if they have a very weak influence on who those leaders should be.
    The answer is surely this: assuming we can know it, does public opinion support the actions of the government or not? If it does, the people share some culpability. If not, then it is deeply unfair to blame the people.

    As far as I can see:

    - Russia: overwhelmingly yes
    - China: yes
    - Israel: largely yes
    - Belarus: probably no
    - Iran: absolutely not
    - Afghanistan: tricky, it’s a mixture
    - Saudi: mainly yes
    - USA: mainly yes
    - Palestine: hard to tell

    So based on the events of the last 12 months I’d say Iranians are absolutely not culpable for their government’s actions around the Middle East in recent times.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    Ken Buck and Don Bacon both vote for Mike Johnson, who is on path to the speakership

    I guess all that talk about needing to accept Biden won the election when opposing Jordan was a load of bill from Buck.

    I know they really need to agree someone, or they'll be at this forever, but in that case don't set conditions for support that won't be reached.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,278
    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Faroe (Denmark), Spyr poll:

    Independence referendum

    Yes: 60%
    No: 40%

    Fieldwork: 21 September 2023
    Sample size: 800"

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1716813741072011742
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,825
    Leon said:

    Fabulous. Well jel

    I love the exoticism of Georgia

    And the khinkale! With white pepper!
    Lots of them this evening. And those nice wrapped aubergines with walnuts. And, weirdly, “kakheti chicken salad” which was both delicious and identical to Coronation Chicken.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Quite the endorsement - one vacuous virtue signaller endorses another:

    NEW: Owen Jones has said Scotland is "very lucky to have" Humza Yousaf.

    The author was praising the First Minister's handling of the Israel-Hamas war compared to his Westminster counterparts


    https://x.com/scotnational/status/1717213679832408528

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,455

    The great thing about PB is that it is much more like a pub than most social media; we can be arguing over some arcane political trivia one moment, and then agreeing on the alcohol served on Victorian football trains. The conversation can get heated, and posters can take things too far (myself included), but mostly we discuss, argue or josh in a friendly manner. The depth of knowledge would beat any pub quiz team as well.
    What's really needed is an actual pub-like club - call it the Smithsonian. Mike could pay all the bills as he so enjoys that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,278
    edited October 2023
    TimS said:

    The answer is surely this: assuming we can know it, does public opinion support the actions of the government or not? If it does, the people share some culpability. If not, then it is deeply unfair to blame the people.

    As far as I can see:

    - Russia: overwhelmingly yes
    - China: yes
    - Israel: largely yes
    - Belarus: probably no
    - Iran: absolutely not
    - Afghanistan: tricky, it’s a mixture
    - Saudi: mainly yes
    - USA: mainly yes
    - Palestine: hard to tell

    So based on the events of the last 12 months I’d say Iranians are absolutely not culpable for their government’s actions around the Middle East in recent times.
    How can we possibly know whether ordinary people support their government's actions if the country in question is not a democracy? For all we know, most Russians and Chinese may be opposed to most of the things their government is doing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,139

    Triangulating will soon be into hexagating....when it comes to Israel and Palestine, you can't triangulate your way out of it.
    The Tedious Tactical Triangulator is adjusting his position once more.

    It won't be the first and won't be the last.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,913

    I'm calling it: Netanyahu is not about to nuke Gaza.

    Malmesbury will be very disappointed.

    Though from the list of deployments it seems much more likely that Iran would be the target for that.
  • Yes, I can see and understand that viewpoint. The other day I mused about what would happen if Israel did not react externally to every stabbing, bombing or rocket attack; they could arrest the culprits, or shoot down missiles over/in their own territory, but do nothing that affected their neighbours. Basically, ignore the violence being inflicted upon them.

    The problem with that is that it would not stop the stabbings, bombings and missile attacks. We would expect Israel to take a beating that could lead to its destruction, especially if we did not expect any other state to do the same.

    IMV it all comes down to Hamas. How should Israel tackle Hamas? How can they deal with a government that wants them all dead?
    I am always surprised that the civilised world has so taken against assassination. We would rather start a war and kill thousands of people - many of whom might have little or nothing to do with the reasons for the war (I am thinking for example of Iraqi conscripts in both Gulf Wars) - than work out a way to kill 1 or 2 or 100 people who really are the ones who should be dead. The Israelis used to be pretty good at this and it seems a far better way to deal with things than bombing cities and probably not actually geting the people responsible.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,780
    Andy_JS said:

    How can we possibly know whether ordinary people support their government's actions if the country in question is not a democracy? For all we know, most Russians and Chinese may be opposed to most of the things their government is doing.
    The ministry of propaganda will tell us.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,825
    edited October 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    How can we possibly know whether ordinary people support their government's actions if the country in question is not a democracy? For all we know, most Russians and Chinese may be opposed to most of the things their government is doing.
    I think the pictures from the streets of Iran, the chants in the football stadiums, the noise on social media, for at least a year, are pretty telling.

    And opinion polls in Russia, conducted by semi-independent but reputable pollsters, suggest pretty strong support for the Z war. Ok they may be propaganda victims but then you could argue that of anyone supporting a warmonger. And China: surveys consistently show pride in the country and its conquests, and support for taking back Taiwan. I think it’s Western wishful thinking to assume they’re all oppressed masses longing to cast off the Maoist yoke.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,148
    Leon said:

    I am beginning to think this invasion is never going to happen. It is too dangerous for Israel, they easily risk getting bogged down in a hideous unwinnable urban war, and it is extremely likely to kick off a wider war, starting with a Hezbollah incursion from the north (and Israel has already been burned by Hezbollah)

    This feels like an immense strategic defeat for Israel. They have been brutally attacked, yet cannot get at the attacker. Hamas will be wildly celebrating
    Israel exists because enough Jews decided they needed their own state to protect them from those who would eradicate them. If Israel cannot protect Jews then what is it for?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,951

    OT word association. Yeats won the Gold Cup four times, but you cannot write Yeats on the Betfair forum (it is replaced by asterisks). No-one knows why.
    "Cast a cold eye on life, on death. Horseman, pass by”. *****
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,825

    I am always surprised that the civilised world has so taken against assassination. We would rather start a war and kill thousands of people - many of whom might have little or nothing to do with the reasons for the war (I am thinking for example of Iraqi conscripts in both Gulf Wars) - than work out a way to kill 1 or 2 or 100 people who really are the ones who should be dead. The Israelis used to be pretty good at this and it seems a far better way to deal with things than bombing cities and probably not actually geting the people responsible.
    I’m rather surprised they’ve not taken this route. Perhaps fear of reciprocation?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    Andy_JS said:

    How can we possibly know whether ordinary people support their government's actions if the country in question is not a democracy?
    Harder, but not impossible. How much resistance to the government actions occurs, taking account of how much opposition is even possible within that state? What does free media or non-state media (if present) say about things? Are there examples of political opposition to the governing regime and its actions, like other parties or demonstrations?

    It's not perfect, and so level of condemnation would need to be considered warily, but not all dictatorships and authoritarian regimes are the same, some have more popular support, some allow a bit more leeway in terms of alternative voices, so it will be possible to make some assessments.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,455

    Collective punishment is a war crime: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_punishment

    We’ve got enough people on PB in favour of war crimes. Please don’t be another.
    I'm more collective liability than suggesting punishment. So I think we should exclude Russians and Palestinians from the normal proceedings of society.

    The Palestinians need aid etc, and that definitely shouldn't stop. No Palestinian or Russian should be able to conduct 'normal business'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413

    I am always surprised that the civilised world has so taken against assassination. We would rather start a war and kill thousands of people - many of whom might have little or nothing to do with the reasons for the war (I am thinking for example of Iraqi conscripts in both Gulf Wars) - than work out a way to kill 1 or 2 or 100 people who really are the ones who should be dead. The Israelis used to be pretty good at this and it seems a far better way to deal with things than bombing cities and probably not actually geting the people responsible.
    It's not against assassination of minor figures and lieutenants, see many drone strikes. It's not subtle assassination, granted.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,825
    Iran in fact could be the Achilles heel of political Islam eventually.

    My Georgian interlocutors have reminded me that most of this country’s time under the Persian occupation was when that empire was Zoroastrian. That was the Persian national religion. Islam is a modern thing for them. The way things are going it seems not impossible that liberal Iranians could end up rejecting Islam itself. Seems far fetched, but such is their hatred of the Ayatollahs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,477
    kle4 said:

    Ken Buck and Don Bacon both vote for Mike Johnson, who is on path to the speakership

    I guess all that talk about needing to accept Biden won the election when opposing Jordan was a load of bill from Buck.

    I know they really need to agree someone, or they'll be at this forever, but in that case don't set conditions for support that won't be reached.

    The GOP 'squishes' have again decided to surrender to Trump.
    So much for the talk of their finding a backbone.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,139

    I would just gently say to @Roger it is not correct to attempt to close down a poster/posters, and if the post is upsetting then move on

    I have had a 'wee' bit better day today, even managing to cook a light tea for my dear wife as a change from the soup we have been having since I went into hospital. We have both lost our taste

    Taking a day at a time but I would again reiterate that this is a very special forum and those running it and the moderators can be trusted to protect it without being asked
    Wodger.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,346
    Mike Johnson elected Squeaker.

    How long will he last?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,413
    ydoethur said:

    Mike Johnson elected Squeaker.

    How long will he last?

    Until he upsets Trump.
This discussion has been closed.