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Now the knives are out for Hun – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited October 2023
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    STARMER REPOSITIONS


    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1717204195189641257?s=20

    "It’s clear that the amount of aid and essential utilities getting into Gaza is completely insufficient to meet the humanitarian emergency on the ground."

    I predict that won#t be enough to satisfy his pro-Palestine detractors and mighy simply annoy the other side. He's in a spot of bother here

    Triangulating will soon be into hexagating....when it comes to Israel and Palestine, you can't triangulate your way out of it.
    Which must doubly annoying for Starmer given he’s actually quite right on both counts. Right to condemn Hamas for their raid and right to demand humanitarian aid for the people of Gaza.
    Which is Sunak's position as well...the problem obviously for Starmer is lots in his party don't agree.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,400

    Israel calling off a ground invasion isn't necessarily a defeat for Israel. The only way the conflict gets resolved is if both sides tire of fighting and move to dialogue. That way, everyone wins.

    Now I’m skeptical that the conditions exist for dialogue. And I expect they will not for some time, if, sadly, ever. But what this event has done has reminded us all of the terrible situation that exists in the Middle East, and maybe just maybe the eyes of the world may refocus on it, and reinvest energy in working to resolve it. A ground occupation and further bloodshed could potentially push that goal further back. It is tricky to say.

    It would be a good thing for Israel. It would stop them getting bogged down in a long and pointless war that will inevitably attract criticism for numerous civilian casualties and it further undermines Netanyahu’s hard man image and speeds his departure. Making a peace deal in the wider ME easier.

    What’s not to like?

    Hence why if this is Biden he’s played a blinder.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Good thread:

    From the debate in the Lords yesterday on Israel & Gaza. Guglielmo Verdirame: professor of international law at the King’s College London.
    “There has been a lot of talk about proportionality in the law on self-defence. I refer to the words that the noble Lord, Lord Pannick,
    1/
    https://x.com/scynic1/status/1717128708757057743?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583
    Leon said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    I am beginning to think this invasion is never going to happen. It is too dangerous for Israel, they easily risk getting bogged down in a hideous unwinnable urban war, and it is extremely likely to kick off a wider war, starting with a Hezbollah incursion from the north (and Israel has already been burned by Hezbollah)

    This feels like an immense strategic defeat for Israel. They have been brutally attacked, yet cannot get at the attacker. Hamas will be wildly celebrating
    Hamas allegedly have 500km of tunnels under Gaza.
    How do you fight through them? It's worse than urban warfare.
    You could flood or gas them I suppose but that is where the hostages are.
    You could go for the leadership sheltering in Qatar. Decapitation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited October 2023
    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    I'm not sure about huge win for Biden, it is definitely bad news for Netanyahu. First he lets Oct 7 happen on his watch, now "Mr Security" Bibi Netanyahu, after bloviaing about revenge, has to stand down his army? And Israel stares at him in disbelief

    I predict he will be gone soon, possibly very soon
    What does Israel get out of invading Gaza? I do not think they will get the destruction of Hamas in any conceivable result.

    All they will probably achieve is stamping in a puddle - a lot of water goes everywhere. The puddle remains.

    If Biden can take part of the credit for talking such an incursion down, then good for him.
    AS @JosiasJessop says, Israel needs some firm reassurance that Oct 7 can never happen again, otherwise Israel itself is imperilled. Who will risk living within ten miles of Gaza or twenty, or thirty, if there is a tiny chance this could happen again?

    Israel is such a small country those apparently modest areas of territory are of immense significance

    Without "destroying Hamas" in Gaza Israel is left defeated and still existentially menaced
    Israel has been existentially menaced from the moment of its creation. It has hostile actors on all sides. The way to peace and its lasting security is hideously complex, but to me it is far from clear that invading Gaza is that way.
    I think it was Trump (of all people) who asked what winning looked like in Afghanistan. Then proceeded to fuck it up worse, of course.

    But the initial question stands. Think of it as the elevator pitch for a war - who is going to get what out of this action?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    Players of 3-dimensional war chess will be wondering if this will mean Ukraine too can have upgraded American air defences. Earlier Israel had blocked Iron Dome exports.

    ETA I'm not sure this necessarily weakens Netanyahu. Aiui he has been less hawkish on the ground invasion than some.
    There was an Israeli minister on RT English the other week, who went totally off on the Russians, and said that Israel is now clearly on the side of Ukraine, and won’t stop until Russia are put back in their box.

    Until the last few weeks, Israel was doing its best to be neutral on that conflict, although covertly supporting Ukraine by eg. allowing US exports of shared technology.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited October 2023
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    Yep. Joe does ok for a senile old guy doesn't he.
    I think its more the professionals who worked under Obama are back in the white house e.g. Blinken and its all relative, compared to chaos Trumpian stuff who would be threatening to bomb Iran one day, then hug it out the next.
  • ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    Players of 3-dimensional war chess will be wondering if this will mean Ukraine too can have upgraded American air defences. Earlier Israel had blocked Iron Dome exports.
    TBF given what's happened, Israel was correct not to send Iron Dome. They need all the interceptors they have.

    I also think that Israel's rather craven attitude towards Russia will change. Israel will now be in Ukraine's camp.
    Aiui it was not that Israel did not send Iron Dome but that they blocked America from sending Iron Dome (a joint US-Israel enterprise) to Ukraine. America is now sending more Iron Dome batteries to Israel.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    Yep. Joe does ok for a senile old guy doesn't he.
    I think its more the professionals who worked under Obama are back in the white house e.g. Blinken and its all relative, compared to chaos Trumpian stuff.
    In a sane world, the boss doesn't do the work himself. He delegates - his job is to hire the right people and manage them with a light touch to do the job and play nice with each other. And to set high level strategic goals.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    The last time that happened, her management put some very expensive media lawyers on the case.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/20/rachel-riley-damages-over-ex-corbyn-aide-tweet

    https://news.sky.com/story/countdowns-rachel-riley-awarded-50-000-in-libel-damages-from-political-blogger-12748737
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    Let's hope those abusing her get arrested.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited October 2023
    Sandpit said:

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    The last time that happened, her management put some very expensive media lawyers on the case.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/20/rachel-riley-damages-over-ex-corbyn-aide-tweet

    https://news.sky.com/story/countdowns-rachel-riley-awarded-50-000-in-libel-damages-from-political-blogger-12748737
    She has become this lightening rod for antisemities, anti-zionists, and corbynite cult to pile on her anytime she speaks on the issue of Jewish heritage or Israel.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Leon said:

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
    At Dukes Hotel you're only allowed two martinis, a very sensible rule. Are you on your third now?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,400
    Just about to finish a rather nice five course meal sitting outside by the swimming pool.

    I shall post the obligatory picture of the final course in approx 3 minutes. I hope everyone can possess their souls in patience that long.

    No wine though as I’ve already drunk it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    I just logged onto the tw@tters

    well that was your first mistake..
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    "Both U.S. and Israeli Officials have now Confirmed that Prime Minister Netanyahu has Agreed to Delay the Invasion of the Gaza Strip until the U.S. Military is able to move more assets into the Region including at least 12 Air Defense Systems, for the Interception of Cruise and Ballistic Missiles as well as Rockets and Drone, which are set to be spread across multiple Countries in the Middle East including Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE."


    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717205979056529537?s=20
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    Sandpit said:

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    The last time that happened, her management put some very expensive media lawyers on the case.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/20/rachel-riley-damages-over-ex-corbyn-aide-tweet

    https://news.sky.com/story/countdowns-rachel-riley-awarded-50-000-in-libel-damages-from-political-blogger-12748737
    She has become this lightening rod for antisemities, anti-zionists, and corbynite cult to pile on her anytime she speaks on this issue.
    And the problem is, the three become indistinguishable.

    The stuff she gets thrown at her is horrific. It's amazing people saying some of the stuff can even pretend to think they're on the side of righteousness.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Havenm'Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
    At Dukes Hotel you're only allowed two martinis, a very sensible rule. Are you on your third now?
    Haven't even started!

    I have had a martini at Dukes, however, and IIRC they are immensely strong. A sensible rule
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    Players of 3-dimensional war chess will be wondering if this will mean Ukraine too can have upgraded American air defences. Earlier Israel had blocked Iron Dome exports.
    TBF given what's happened, Israel was correct not to send Iron Dome. They need all the interceptors they have.

    I also think that Israel's rather craven attitude towards Russia will change. Israel will now be in Ukraine's camp.
    Aiui it was not that Israel did not send Iron Dome but that they blocked America from sending Iron Dome (a joint US-Israel enterprise) to Ukraine. America is now sending more Iron Dome batteries to Israel.
    A bit like the Germans initially with Leo2's, or the Swiss still with several weapons systems and ammunition...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215

    Sandpit said:

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    The last time that happened, her management put some very expensive media lawyers on the case.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/20/rachel-riley-damages-over-ex-corbyn-aide-tweet

    https://news.sky.com/story/countdowns-rachel-riley-awarded-50-000-in-libel-damages-from-political-blogger-12748737
    She has become this lightening rod for antisemities, anti-zionists, and corbynite cult to pile on her anytime she speaks on this issue.
    And the problem is, the three become indistinguishable.

    The stuff she gets thrown at her is horrific. It's amazing people saying some of the stuff can even pretend to think they're on the side of righteousness.
    Forget righteousness I truly believe this is a a psychological issue. They are not fully sane.

    They are so tribal that they attack Jews in the UK as though they have anything to do with what is going on in the Middle East. They have more ire against Rachel Riley than Hamas murderers. WTF.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited October 2023
    148grss said:

    AlistairM said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    algarkirk said:

    148grss said:

    algarkirk said:

    FPT

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://x.com/shehabkhan/status/1717104380132917287

    EXC: Pressure piles on Keir Starmer - More than 150 Muslim Labour Councillors have written directly to the Labour leader demanding he call for a ceasefire in Gaza as backlash over his policy from within his party grows

    I’m not sure that Starmer is feeling quite as much pressure, as these councillors and activists wish him to be feeling.
    Which is generally true of his internal opponents. They are mad at not having more influence and so exagerrate the significance of their petulance.

    This example is probably more substantive than that, but I don't get the impression as an outsider that Starmer needs to worry yet
    As someone who is much less of an outsider, I have to disagree with you. The criticism from within the Labour Party falls into two quite distinct camps:

    1. The usual critics on the far left, who can scarcely contain their glee at being presented with an excuse to weigh in against Keir Starmer as strongly as possible. They see it as an opportunity. The Momentum-supporting Oxford councillor on the radio this morning was an example.

    2. A broad swathe of opinion within the wider Labour Party, people who are mostly supportive of the leadership and certainly not those habitually seeking to undermine it from within. That includes amongst others Muslim councillors, most of whom are quite willing to condemn Hamas's actions on 7th October unreservedly but nonetheless are appalled by the humanitarian situation unfolding in Gaza and the relentless killing through bombing and are getting it in the neck from their local communities who are similarly appalled.

    In political terms, Keir Starmer should be concerned. The usual critics are not of much relevance, they have already been marginalised within the party and there is no way back now. However, the criticism from within the Muslim community will lose Labour electoral support if not properly addressed, some of it in marginal seats. If Israel continues on its present course, the situation in Gaza is going to get even worse and I think that public opinion will increasingly become critical of the actions of the Israeli government going forward.


    Sir K knows that for millions of centrists, of all religions and none, the rational next course (which should already have happened) is to call for all hostages to be released and then a ceasefire. Any call for that release, immediately to be followed by ceasefire at least has a thread of argument behind it.

    To argue for ceasefire while an undeniable war crime continues by holding the hostages has little appeal for most centrists. Those are the votes Sir K has acquired and needs to retain.

    Most centerists would actually say that Israel at least has the right to act against Hamas. No organisation can kill 1400 + citizens and not expect a massive response.

    By calling for a ceasefire, what people are saying is that Israel should never act back against terrorism.

    The true respond should be that Isreal has a right to act against Hamas, but every action should be lawful, measured and no open ended.

    Which is basically Starmers position, He is right, and should hold right against those which are anti-israel.
    What's the reasonable response for 5,000 civilians killed?
    To reflect on the folly of taking and refusing to release hostages when to do so would slightly ameliorate the effect of the 1400 murders committed in cold blood and would lay the ground for your sympathisers to ask for a ceasefire.

    If anyone had even suggested that Israel's reaction to 1,400 dead should be to reflect on the folly of managing an apartheid state and illegal occupation they would have been called an anti-Semite.

    I would much rather the people here who do not care about the number of dead Palestinians just say so, or take TOPPINGs position, which is at least honest. I can have an honest disagreement with them when their idea of war morality is essentially just "might decides right". But to all the people who say how horrified they are of 1,400 killed - including babies! - and then hand wave away years of Palestinian children being killed or the civilians death now - your morality is hollow. You don't care about life. You care about your side, your team, your allies - but not human life.
    Personally, I care about the number of dead Palestinians. I would prefer for there to be *no* dead Palestinians or Israelis.

    The question is, how do we get from here to that sunlit upland?

    I'd argue your final words apply to yourself more than to others on here. You have a 'vision' for peace that is utterly unworkable (a single state solution), and one that will lead to the Jews in Israel being destroyed. You have a rather odd reading of history in the Middle East. And you evidently do not care for Israeli lives.
    I think the only option to peace is an end to apartheid, I think the only way to end apartheid is for a single state solution that does truth and reconciliation, involving criminal actors on both sides being judged and a peaceful settlement for Israeli Jews and Palestinian Arabs. If that leads to the outcome of Israeli Jews being persecuted, I would view that as a failed truth and reconciliation effort and will then be defending Israeli Jews from persecution. But that is not the situation that has to be, or we are in now.

    My "odd" reading of Middle Eastern history is that, in general, Jewish people were treated better under Ottoman rule than under European rule. That seems to be the historical consensus, as I understand it. As for the specifics of Zionism and post-Balfor, my general position is that, yes, Middle Eastern cultures likely had low level anti-Semitism and acts of violence (but lesser than in Europe) and that the modern anti-Semitic and and Jewish violence and rhetoric come more as a reaction to Zionism and Israel (again, as explanation, not endorsement).

    Every time I restart or reenter these conversations I talk about how awful October 7th was, how it was unacceptable, and indeed try and mention the perspectives of those families who have lost loved ones to kidnap or were killed. I even opened up about my limited connection to my own Jewish ancestors (although I do not claim a Jewish experience nor a Jewish identity) and how in trying to understand that better I talked to Jewish people and made lots of Jewish friends, many of who are anti-Zionist. How that is me not showing care for Israeli lives, I don't know.

    I don't have a magic wand that can take us to the sunlit uplands. I do have a history book that will tell you how we won't get there. And that is why I am against the apartheid regime, the carpet bombing of Gaza, the mass forced migration of Palestinians and the mass killing of Palestinian civilians as well as the acts of Hamas at the beginning of this month.
    Can you explain to me how Arabs or Palestinians living in Israel are in an apartheid regime? They have the same rights as Jews.

    Compare and contrast with Jews who are brave enough to live in majority Muslim countries.
    Again, I am going to defer to people whose job it is to define these things:

    https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2022/02/israels-system-of-apartheid/
    I don't think we should defer our opinions to others, even charities or well meaning groups.

    Obviously we need to take account of expert views - if they are actually experts which is not always the same as those claiming to be experts - and naturally we'll be guided by views of those we trust, it's not possible to robotically analyse everything with cold logic, but we shouldn't in essence delegate our opinions to another person or group. We do that too much, and it can lead to embarrassment when said delegator reveals, inevitably at some stage, to not be worthy of our trust on something.

    On the apartheid question I don't think it's necessarily a helpful term to use in any case, since things could conceivably be very bad without matching apartheid's set up and details, in which case it would in fact undermine criticism to use it as some kind of casual, looser definition, when that is pointed out. It's like if someone criticising something as illegal because they think it is awful, then if it turns out it is in fact lawful that might overshadow that it still is really bad.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,400
    As promised, because I know the suspense was killing you all.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    The last time that happened, her management put some very expensive media lawyers on the case.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/20/rachel-riley-damages-over-ex-corbyn-aide-tweet

    https://news.sky.com/story/countdowns-rachel-riley-awarded-50-000-in-libel-damages-from-political-blogger-12748737
    She has become this lightening rod for antisemities, anti-zionists, and corbynite cult to pile on her anytime she speaks on the issue of Jewish heritage or Israel.
    Yes, very wierd. Not quite sure why they pick specifically on a totally harmless TV presenter and mathematician, rather than anyone actually involved in the situation.
  • Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    Players of 3-dimensional war chess will be wondering if this will mean Ukraine too can have upgraded American air defences. Earlier Israel had blocked Iron Dome exports.

    ETA I'm not sure this necessarily weakens Netanyahu. Aiui he has been less hawkish on the ground invasion than some.
    There was an Israeli minister on RT English the other week, who went totally off on the Russians, and said that Israel is now clearly on the side of Ukraine, and won’t stop until Russia are put back in their box.

    Until the last few weeks, Israel was doing its best to be neutral on that conflict, although covertly supporting Ukraine by eg. allowing US exports of shared technology.
    You get RT in the Sandpit? We haven't been able to get RT on Freeview since the invasion of Ukraine.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724

    Robert Reich
    @RBReich
    ·
    39m
    Rep. Mike Johnson, who is the latest GOP speaker nominee, was called "the most important architect of the Electoral College objections” to the 2020 election.

    If Republicans somehow manage to make him speaker, they will be fully endorsing Trump’s assault on our republic.

    https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1717214850743480502
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    .

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    STARMER REPOSITIONS


    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1717204195189641257?s=20

    "It’s clear that the amount of aid and essential utilities getting into Gaza is completely insufficient to meet the humanitarian emergency on the ground."

    I predict that won#t be enough to satisfy his pro-Palestine detractors and mighy simply annoy the other side. He's in a spot of bother here

    Triangulating will soon be into hexagating....when it comes to Israel and Palestine, you can't triangulate your way out of it.
    Which must doubly annoying for Starmer given he’s actually quite right on both counts. Right to condemn Hamas for their raid and right to demand humanitarian aid for the people of Gaza.
    Which is Sunak's position as well...the problem obviously for Starmer is lots in his party don't agree.
    It’s all a bit performative. It doesn’t matter what Starmer, or even Sunak, thinks. They’re not the leaders of Israel or Hamas or the US or Egypt. All this demanding that people with no power to change the situation say the right words about it does very little to help the situation.

    I mean, I’d rather neither Sunak or Starmer either applaud Hamas or call for ethnic cleansing, but they’re not going to, are they? They’re not stupid. They’re going to say something consistent with British foreign policy on Israel/Palestine for the last several decades, but slightly more or slightly less focusing on the suffering on one side or the other.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    Neither shocking nor unprecedented, I fear.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    Players of 3-dimensional war chess will be wondering if this will mean Ukraine too can have upgraded American air defences. Earlier Israel had blocked Iron Dome exports.

    ETA I'm not sure this necessarily weakens Netanyahu. Aiui he has been less hawkish on the ground invasion than some.
    There was an Israeli minister on RT English the other week, who went totally off on the Russians, and said that Israel is now clearly on the side of Ukraine, and won’t stop until Russia are put back in their box.

    Until the last few weeks, Israel was doing its best to be neutral on that conflict, although covertly supporting Ukraine by eg. allowing US exports of shared technology.
    You get RT in the Sandpit? We haven't been able to get RT on Freeview since the invasion of Ukraine.
    Good question, probably yes but it’s not on my TV.

    This was the story:
    https://www.israeltoday.co.il/read/israeli-official-warns-russia-you-will-pay-for-backing-hamas/
    “Russia is supporting the enemies of Israel. Russia is supporting Nazi people who want to commit genocide on us and Russia will pay the price. We’re gonna win this war. Afterwards, we’re not forgetting what you’re doing, we’re not forgetting, we will come, we will make sure Ukraine wins. We will make sure that you pay the price for what you have done, you as Russia.”
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Stocky said:

    Sandpit said:

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    The last time that happened, her management put some very expensive media lawyers on the case.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/20/rachel-riley-damages-over-ex-corbyn-aide-tweet

    https://news.sky.com/story/countdowns-rachel-riley-awarded-50-000-in-libel-damages-from-political-blogger-12748737
    She has become this lightening rod for antisemities, anti-zionists, and corbynite cult to pile on her anytime she speaks on this issue.
    And the problem is, the three become indistinguishable.

    The stuff she gets thrown at her is horrific. It's amazing people saying some of the stuff can even pretend to think they're on the side of righteousness.
    Forget righteousness I truly believe this is a a psychological issue. They are not fully sane.

    They are so tribal that they attack Jews in the UK as though they have anything to do with what is going on in the Middle East. They have more ire against Rachel Riley than Hamas murderers. WTF.
    I particularly despair of the sort of poster who claims to be Jewish (I have no way of knowing if it is true or not), who then reels off a list of pro-Israel media Jews and says: "Not an ounce of humanity between them."

    Which is the sort of phrase you would expect Nazis to say about Jews...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,020
    edited October 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    The last time that happened, her management put some very expensive media lawyers on the case.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/20/rachel-riley-damages-over-ex-corbyn-aide-tweet

    https://news.sky.com/story/countdowns-rachel-riley-awarded-50-000-in-libel-damages-from-political-blogger-12748737
    She has become this lightening rod for antisemities, anti-zionists, and corbynite cult to pile on her anytime she speaks on the issue of Jewish heritage or Israel.
    Yes, very wierd. Not quite sure why they pick specifically on a totally harmless TV presenter and mathematician, rather than anyone actually involved in the situation.
    Well she has very strong opinions on this issue, but given the disgusting abuse she gets anytime she talks about it, it rather proves her point.

    But other than that all she seems to talk about if the footy and countdown. Certainly not gone down the middle-life crisis tweeting 100 times a day wading into every single political issue of the day, which obviously causes the tw@ttersphere to like / share / retw@tter / abuse you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    Yep. Joe does ok for a senile old guy doesn't he.
    I can't deny he does look and sound frail. He has gaffes (but always has done). But even if someone thinks he is some kind of front man only, his administration are able to get results.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,999
    Here's detail on Mike Johnson I hadn't seen before: "One underreported fact about Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), the Republican nominee for speaker, according to Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.): He co-founded the bipartisan Honor and Civility Caucus with Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) in 2017 in his first year in Congress.

    The caucus aimed to encourage disagreement “in an agreeable manner” and “to help reverse the increasing divisions in and coarsening of our culture,” Johnson and Crist said in a statement at the time. (Crist left Congress last year.)"
    (Links omitted.)
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/25/house-speaker-vote/#link-AOA2XQP52BFVXPVWPKIFPM7UMA
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019
    Leon said:

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
    The only reason to advise people near Gaza to stay in their shelters is because something it going to happen in Gaza. And the Israelis are not stupid enough to nuke something in the immediate neighbourhood that would risk dropping fallout all over their own land.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
    At Dukes Hotel you're only allowed two martinis, a very sensible rule. Are you on your third now?
    I and a friend were allowed to try for 4 by the staff. We managed 3.5 on occasion, I think.
  • I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    Mum's convinced she's had some work done.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,400

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    Players of 3-dimensional war chess will be wondering if this will mean Ukraine too can have upgraded American air defences. Earlier Israel had blocked Iron Dome exports.

    ETA I'm not sure this necessarily weakens Netanyahu. Aiui he has been less hawkish on the ground invasion than some.
    There was an Israeli minister on RT English the other week, who went totally off on the Russians, and said that Israel is now clearly on the side of Ukraine, and won’t stop until Russia are put back in their box.

    Until the last few weeks, Israel was doing its best to be neutral on that conflict, although covertly supporting Ukraine by eg. allowing US exports of shared technology.
    You get RT in the Sandpit? We haven't been able to get RT on Freeview since the invasion of Ukraine.
    The disturbing implication of that is you have been paying to get it instead.
  • ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    Players of 3-dimensional war chess will be wondering if this will mean Ukraine too can have upgraded American air defences. Earlier Israel had blocked Iron Dome exports.

    ETA I'm not sure this necessarily weakens Netanyahu. Aiui he has been less hawkish on the ground invasion than some.
    There was an Israeli minister on RT English the other week, who went totally off on the Russians, and said that Israel is now clearly on the side of Ukraine, and won’t stop until Russia are put back in their box.

    Until the last few weeks, Israel was doing its best to be neutral on that conflict, although covertly supporting Ukraine by eg. allowing US exports of shared technology.
    You get RT in the Sandpit? We haven't been able to get RT on Freeview since the invasion of Ukraine.
    The disturbing implication of that is you have been paying to get it instead.
    Nah, we're just cheapskates merely paying the Licence Fee :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    I'm not sure about huge win for Biden, it is definitely bad news for Netanyahu. First he lets Oct 7 happen on his watch, now "Mr Security" Bibi Netanyahu, after bloviaing about revenge, has to stand down his army? And Israel stares at him in disbelief

    I predict he will be gone soon, possibly very soon
    Netanyahu deserves to go for (a) secretly supporting Hamas for domestic political reasons and (b) failing to keep intelligence eyes on them.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,751

    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    Yep. Joe does ok for a senile old guy doesn't he.
    I think its more the professionals who worked under Obama are back in the white house e.g. Blinken and its all relative, compared to chaos Trumpian stuff.
    In a sane world, the boss doesn't do the work himself. He delegates - his job is to hire the right people and manage them with a light touch to do the job and play nice with each other. And to set high level strategic goals.
    That's why Reagan was pretty successful. He knew instinctively what course to set and had able people to do the grunt work. A sunny optimistic personality helped. Biden not unlike him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Here's detail on Mike Johnson I hadn't seen before: "One underreported fact about Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), the Republican nominee for speaker, according to Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.): He co-founded the bipartisan Honor and Civility Caucus with Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) in 2017 in his first year in Congress.

    The caucus aimed to encourage disagreement “in an agreeable manner” and “to help reverse the increasing divisions in and coarsening of our culture,” Johnson and Crist said in a statement at the time. (Crist left Congress last year.)"
    (Links omitted.)
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/25/house-speaker-vote/#link-AOA2XQP52BFVXPVWPKIFPM7UMA

    Sounds underreported because it obviously did not work.

    But then a lot of the GOP pre and shortly after Trump would still rouse themselves to attempt to behave differently and even criticise things from time to time.

    Now ugly, coarse language they once would have shied away from is just day to day.

    Plus, once you support a political coup attempt would honor and civility still matter to someone?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,400
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    I'm not sure about huge win for Biden, it is definitely bad news for Netanyahu. First he lets Oct 7 happen on his watch, now "Mr Security" Bibi Netanyahu, after bloviaing about revenge, has to stand down his army? And Israel stares at him in disbelief

    I predict he will be gone soon, possibly very soon
    Netanyahu deserves to go for (a) secretly supporting Hamas for domestic political reasons and (b) failing to keep intelligence eyes on them.
    He also deserves to go for corruption, abuse of office, damaging Israel’s democracy and being in general a grade A Tristram.*

    *Rhyming slang, after a certain Tristram Hunt.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360
    Roger said:

    An appeal to the moderators. Those of us who come on here to read about politics and other current affairs are being drowned out by two or three posters with an unhealthy and certainly unattractive blood lust who are simply using this site to revel in it.

    Sure if posters have an understanding or a knowledge of the politics of the area or how it might affect domestic politics fine but otherwise just give it up. Many of us know people who it affects very directly from all sides and to read the thoughts of Jessop and co is just REALLY offensive. They wouldn't know a Jew if he tripped over one still less an Arab.

    Fuck off Roger. Josiah Jessop is a thoroughly moderate poster.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995
    ydoethur said:

    As promised, because I know the suspense was killing you all.

    Delightful. And from here, my third Rkatsiteli on the balcony of our cottage at Mestvireni farm, after a lengthy tasting of various Qvevri wines plus peach brandy and chacha, in the middle of the Alazani valley in Eastern Georgia. The owner recently got kicked off Airbnb for refusing to receive Russian guests. Quite an accolade.

    The twinkling lights in the distance are the foot of the Great Caucasus. By day you can see the whole snowcapped ridge across the horizon. On the left the peaks are in Chechnya, on the right in Dagestan.



  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    edited October 2023

    .

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    STARMER REPOSITIONS


    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1717204195189641257?s=20

    "It’s clear that the amount of aid and essential utilities getting into Gaza is completely insufficient to meet the humanitarian emergency on the ground."

    I predict that won#t be enough to satisfy his pro-Palestine detractors and mighy simply annoy the other side. He's in a spot of bother here

    Triangulating will soon be into hexagating....when it comes to Israel and Palestine, you can't triangulate your way out of it.
    Which must doubly annoying for Starmer given he’s actually quite right on both counts. Right to condemn Hamas for their raid and right to demand humanitarian aid for the people of Gaza.
    Which is Sunak's position as well...the problem obviously for Starmer is lots in his party don't agree.
    It’s all a bit performative. It doesn’t matter what Starmer, or even Sunak, thinks. They’re not the leaders of Israel or Hamas or the US or Egypt. All this demanding that people with no power to change the situation say the right words about it does very little to help the situation.

    I mean, I’d rather neither Sunak or Starmer either applaud Hamas or call for ethnic cleansing, but they’re not going to, are they? They’re not stupid. They’re going to say something consistent with British foreign policy on Israel/Palestine for the last several decades, but slightly more or slightly less focusing on the suffering on one side or the other.
    UK politicians have a particular habit of excessively handwringing and wailing “we must do something” every time an international crisis erupts, without ever it seems to me fully comprehending that Western foreign policy is by and large shaped by the US and while we can make the odd representation here and there and can increase or decrease the level of our investment in these things, we are not fundamentally going to have completely independent agency, based on the realpolitik of 21st century diplomatic relations and our alliances.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    spudgfsh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I think Hunt has been a poor Chancellor, who has done little to improve the finances of the UK.

    I divide Chancellors into two broad categories: simplifiers and complicators. In general, the first group are ones that tend to leave the economy in better shape. Examples of simplification would be the removal of excess bands of taxation. Examples of complication would be their addition, or the adding novel taxes, or indeed, attempting to shape the economy by lots of targeted little bits of subsidy.

    The worst complicators in modern history were Gordon Brown and Norman Lamont. The greatest simplifiers were Geoffrey Howe and Kenneth Clarke (with an honourable mention for Alistair Darling, who at least tried to undo some of Brown's work.)

    Osborne was more of a simplifier, but not a very good one. Sunak was definitely more of a complicator. Kwarteng would have been a simplifier, but left before he was able to do anything.

    Hunt, though, has committed the worst offence of all. He's done nothing. In two years in the top job, he has done nothing to remove the ridiculous wrinkles in the marginal tax rate. I realise that "steady as she goes" has its appeals, but his anaction has been appalling. I would rate him as 3/10.

    Lawson was a simplifier too.

    Indeed, I'd say that the Conservatives, from 1979 to 1997, were extremely fortunate to have three simplifiers and only one complicator at the Treasury. (Major was there so briefly, I haven't categorized him.)
    Any predictions for Reeves?
    Simple

    Vote Tory? Pay more tax...
    You think your tax will go down under Labour?
    No, I think your taxes will go up under Labour
    Not just that, they'll go up more under Labour than under a continuing Conservative government. In both cases, arithmetic will demand it.

    But Reeves won't have to pretend that taxes are flat or falling to anything like the same degree. And a lot of the complexities we all seem to hate have come about to bring in more revenue without increasing anything at headline level.
    I'd say increasing the basic rate of income tax has become politically impossible.
    Of course its not impossible. What may be true is todays politicians are too weak and inexperienced to know how to do it and keep (enough of) the public on board.
    Is what I mean.
    Thats a Tory Brexit thing. The explainers, like Clarke and Stewart who were willing to argue their case rather than pander to the headlines and opinion polls left/were kicked out as preferred. And it won the Tories elections so Labours lot are now inexperienced.

    It is not necessarily ongoing.
    From well before that, although it's got worse with them (like most things). The headline basic rate has become something deemed impossible to raise. You do other tax changes to raise money, anything but that. NI has been a favourite. Also freezing allowances. And sometimes you even frig around elsewhere in Fiscal Corner to raise money to cut that basic rate. It's the worst kind of 'politics over economics'. Let's hope it does change. I'll believe it when I see it.
    I actually dont think it would be difficult at the moment. Enough of the country want hospitals and schools to work and understand something has to change. But it needs someone who can be clear, patient and consistent on the messaging.
    There’s no lack of tax revenue. But, it seems to spent terribly.
  • https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/25/pro-israel-rallies-allowed-in-india-but-palestine-solidarity-sees-crackdown?traffic_source=rss

    "On Saturday, dozens of supporters of a retired Indian army soldier travelled 182km (113 miles) to reach the Israeli embassy in New Delhi where they offered to go to Israel to fight against the Palestinians in Gaza."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,400
    edited October 2023

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    The last time that happened, her management put some very expensive media lawyers on the case.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/20/rachel-riley-damages-over-ex-corbyn-aide-tweet

    https://news.sky.com/story/countdowns-rachel-riley-awarded-50-000-in-libel-damages-from-political-blogger-12748737
    She has become this lightening rod for antisemities, anti-zionists, and corbynite cult to pile on her anytime she speaks on the issue of Jewish heritage or Israel.
    Yes, very wierd. Not quite sure why they pick specifically on a totally harmless TV presenter and mathematician, rather than anyone actually involved in the situation.
    Well she has very strong opinions on this issue, but given the disgusting abuse she gets anytime she talks about it, it rather proves her point.

    But other than that all she seems to talk about if the footy and countdown. Certainly not gone down the middle-life crisis tweeting 100 times a day wading into every single political issue of the day, which obviously causes the tw@ttersphere to like / share / retw@tter / abuse you.
    She’d never fit in on PB then. :smile:
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995
    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
    The only reason to advise people near Gaza to stay in their shelters is because something it going to happen in Gaza. And the Israelis are not stupid enough to nuke something in the immediate neighbourhood that would risk dropping fallout all over their own land.
    My assumption is that the last few days have been shaping operations and that they will launch a land invasion after all. We shall see. The invasion itself might ironically be less damaging to civilian life than the bombing if people have already fled. But I expect it’ll be a military bloodbath.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    A warning for @Leon:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67217729

    (Did you try it in the end?)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited October 2023
    The lawyer's excuse is clearly nonsense (if Trump was talking about Cohen he'd not need to say 'perhaps' more partisan, for a start), but what are courts going to do about this sort of thing?

    The Trump remark at issue:

    "If we had a jury it would have been fair, at least—even if it was a somewhat negative jury—because no negative jury would vote against me. But this judge will. Because this judge is a very partisan judge, with a person who's very partisan sitting alongside of him, perhaps even much more partisan than he is."...

    Trump's lawyer Chris Kise claimed his client was talking about Cohen, not the law clerk. (The clerk sits closer and on the same level as the judge.)

    @KlasfeldReports

    They're clearly very worried about jailing Trump for violating conditions or potentially threatening witnesses, but he's going to keep pushing on that line, daring them to do something. He obviously cannot stop himself from doing it, and free speech, stronger in america than here and stronger for politicians, surely is not a shield for a pre-trial defendent to say anything they want.

    Of course, there is one judge he doesn't rail against, in the secret documents case, and he's getting more traction there, maybe he should try it more often.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765
    carnforth said:

    A warning for @Leon:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67217729

    (Did you try it in the end?)

    That seems a very personal question.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,400
    By the way Sunil, I was thinking of you earlier as this popped up on my news feed:

    Leek and Rudyard Railway owner selling up for retirement
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-67215733

    Have you got your bid in yet?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    Well let's all thank Mr Musk for his commitment to Free Speech, no matter how vile.
  • ydoethur said:

    By the way Sunil, I was thinking of you earlier as this popped up on my news feed:

    Leek and Rudyard Railway owner selling up for retirement
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-67215733

    Have you got your bid in yet?

    Unfortunatement, no, as I haven't been on that particular railway yet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    I'm not sure about huge win for Biden, it is definitely bad news for Netanyahu. First he lets Oct 7 happen on his watch, now "Mr Security" Bibi Netanyahu, after bloviaing about revenge, has to stand down his army? And Israel stares at him in disbelief

    I predict he will be gone soon, possibly very soon
    Netanyahu deserves to go for (a) secretly supporting Hamas for domestic political reasons and (b) failing to keep intelligence eyes on them.
    He also deserves to go for corruption, abuse of office, damaging Israel’s democracy and being in general a grade A Tristram.*

    *Rhyming slang, after a certain Tristram Hunt.
    Who was in my year at Trinity. (And a Mr Kwarteng was only just behind us.)

    It makes me really quite... quite... something.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765
    TimS said:

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
    The only reason to advise people near Gaza to stay in their shelters is because something it going to happen in Gaza. And the Israelis are not stupid enough to nuke something in the immediate neighbourhood that would risk dropping fallout all over their own land.
    My assumption is that the last few days have been shaping operations and that they will launch a land invasion after all. We shall see. The invasion itself might ironically be less damaging to civilian life than the bombing if people have already fled. But I expect it’ll be a military bloodbath.
    I've been mulling over the issue of whether the people of a state should be held liable for that state's actions. I think I've decided that they should. I thought this about Putin's actions, but it's harder to really tie Hamas to the Palestinians en mass. Nonetheless I conclude that they should be held to account for their leaders actions even if they have a very weak influence on who those leaders should be.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Foxy said:

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    Well let's all thank Mr Musk for his commitment to Free Speech, no matter how vile.
    The only thing that could possibly be making the whole situation worse right now, would be a large group of highly partisan moderators on Twitter, deciding on a whim what’s acceptable and not, and shutting down accounts according to their own prejudices.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    As promised, because I know the suspense was killing you all.

    Delightful. And from here, my third Rkatsiteli on the balcony of our cottage at Mestvireni farm, after a lengthy tasting of various Qvevri wines plus peach brandy and chacha, in the middle of the Alazani valley in Eastern Georgia. The owner recently got kicked off Airbnb for refusing to receive Russian guests. Quite an accolade.

    The twinkling lights in the distance are the foot of the Great Caucasus. By day you can see the whole snowcapped ridge across the horizon. On the left the peaks are in Chechnya, on the right in Dagestan.



    Fabulous. Well jel

    I love the exoticism of Georgia

    And the khinkale! With white pepper!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    kle4 said:

    The lawyer's excuse is clearly nonsense (if Trump was talking about Cohen he'd not need to say 'perhaps' more partisan, for a start), but what are courts going to do about this sort of thing?

    The Trump remark at issue:

    "If we had a jury it would have been fair, at least—even if it was a somewhat negative jury—because no negative jury would vote against me. But this judge will. Because this judge is a very partisan judge, with a person who's very partisan sitting alongside of him, perhaps even much more partisan than he is."...

    Trump's lawyer Chris Kise claimed his client was talking about Cohen, not the law clerk. (The clerk sits closer and on the same level as the judge.)

    @KlasfeldReports

    They're clearly very worried about jailing Trump for violating conditions or potentially threatening witnesses, but he's going to keep pushing on that line, daring them to do something. He obviously cannot stop himself from doing it, and free speech, stronger in america than here and stronger for politicians, surely is not a shield for a pre-trial defendent to say anything they want.

    Of course, there is one judge he doesn't rail against, in the secret documents case, and he's getting more traction there, maybe he should try it more often.

    Of course, there’s no jury because Trump’s lawyers didn’t ask for a jury.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    Well let's all thank Mr Musk for his commitment to Free Speech, no matter how vile.
    The only thing that could possibly be making the whole situation worse right now, would be a large group of highly partisan moderators on Twitter, deciding on a whim what’s acceptable and not, and shutting down accounts according to their own prejudices.
    They're in a worse situation; one where one man (Musk) decides on a whim what’s acceptable and not, and shuts down accounts according to his own prejudices of the day, all whilst a bunch of brainless Musk fanbouis cheer him on...
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,945

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    Players of 3-dimensional war chess will be wondering if this will mean Ukraine too can have upgraded American air defences. Earlier Israel had blocked Iron Dome exports.

    ETA I'm not sure this necessarily weakens Netanyahu. Aiui he has been less hawkish on the ground invasion than some.
    There was an Israeli minister on RT English the other week, who went totally off on the Russians, and said that Israel is now clearly on the side of Ukraine, and won’t stop until Russia are put back in their box.

    Until the last few weeks, Israel was doing its best to be neutral on that conflict, although covertly supporting Ukraine by eg. allowing US exports of shared technology.
    You get RT in the Sandpit? We haven't been able to get RT on Freeview since the invasion of Ukraine.
    One of their more idiotic decisions. I've no love of Russia, but do they honestly think our democracy will collapse if we are exposed to what the other side thinks?

    Sometimes, the government seems hell bent on doing absolutely everything it can to increase VPN use. Do they have shares in one of the providers...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457
    I'm calling it: Netanyahu is not about to nuke Gaza.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,945

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    Just considering the politics, if true that is a huge win for Biden and another blow to Netanyahu’s authority.
    Players of 3-dimensional war chess will be wondering if this will mean Ukraine too can have upgraded American air defences. Earlier Israel had blocked Iron Dome exports.

    ETA I'm not sure this necessarily weakens Netanyahu. Aiui he has been less hawkish on the ground invasion than some.
    There was an Israeli minister on RT English the other week, who went totally off on the Russians, and said that Israel is now clearly on the side of Ukraine, and won’t stop until Russia are put back in their box.

    Until the last few weeks, Israel was doing its best to be neutral on that conflict, although covertly supporting Ukraine by eg. allowing US exports of shared technology.
    You get RT in the Sandpit? We haven't been able to get RT on Freeview since the invasion of Ukraine.
    One of their more idiotic decisions. I've no love of Russia, but do they honestly think our democracy will collapse if we are exposed to what the other side thinks?

    Sometimes, the government seems hell bent on doing absolutely everything it can to increase VPN use. Do they have shares in one of the providers...
  • Dem Bones dem Bones gonna be suspended.

    The Commons has agreed that Peter Bone be suspended from the House for six weeks from today to Tuesday 5 December, without a division.

    This suspension will trigger a recall petition in his Wellingborough constituency
    .

    https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1717231827507650960
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    .
    kle4 said:

    Here's detail on Mike Johnson I hadn't seen before: "One underreported fact about Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), the Republican nominee for speaker, according to Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.): He co-founded the bipartisan Honor and Civility Caucus with Rep. Charlie Crist (D-Fla.) in 2017 in his first year in Congress.

    The caucus aimed to encourage disagreement “in an agreeable manner” and “to help reverse the increasing divisions in and coarsening of our culture,” Johnson and Crist said in a statement at the time. (Crist left Congress last year.)"
    (Links omitted.)
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/25/house-speaker-vote/#link-AOA2XQP52BFVXPVWPKIFPM7UMA

    Sounds underreported because it obviously did not work.

    But then a lot of the GOP pre and shortly after Trump would still rouse themselves to attempt to behave differently and even criticise things from time to time.

    Now ugly, coarse language they once would have shied away from is just day to day.

    Plus, once you support a political coup attempt would honor and civility still matter to someone?
    Violating your public oath - that he took to uphold the constitution - does not seem particularly civil behaviour to me.

    Or indeed agreeable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Foxy said:

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    Well let's all thank Mr Musk for his commitment to Free Speech, no matter how vile.
    If only he did have such a committment. I'm sure lots of anti-Musk stuff is still on there, but he's taken action when he wants to. Now instead of an imperfect team it's what he wants goes.

    Which would be fine, its his company, but I wouldn't even ironically suggest his free speech beliefs are sincere.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    Foxy said:

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    Well let's all thank Mr Musk for his commitment to Free Speech, no matter how vile.
    It wasn’t great before Musk: https://www.adl.org/resources/report/quantifying-hate-year-anti-semitism-twitter

    It’s got worse with Musk: https://www.adl.org/resources/blog/twitter-not-enforcing-its-policies-antisemitic-content
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Dem Bones dem Bones gonna be suspended.

    The Commons has agreed that Peter Bone be suspended from the House for six weeks from today to Tuesday 5 December, without a division.

    This suspension will trigger a recall petition in his Wellingborough constituency
    .

    https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1717231827507650960

    Standard whinge from him previously - procedurally incorrect, unfair because they don't believe me, etc etc.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457
    Andy_JS said:

    Justin Trudeau in trouble in Canada. The opposition Conservatives now have an average 14% lead in the polls.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_federal_election#Pre-campaign_period

    Might keep moving around the Anglosphere.

    Then I can experience continuous Conservative glory.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: We have scheduled a time for the ground operation to begin. This decision was made with IDF Chief of Staff and the war cabinet.
    https://twitter.com/ywnreporter/status/1717230483036123292
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    Omnium said:

    TimS said:

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
    The only reason to advise people near Gaza to stay in their shelters is because something it going to happen in Gaza. And the Israelis are not stupid enough to nuke something in the immediate neighbourhood that would risk dropping fallout all over their own land.
    My assumption is that the last few days have been shaping operations and that they will launch a land invasion after all. We shall see. The invasion itself might ironically be less damaging to civilian life than the bombing if people have already fled. But I expect it’ll be a military bloodbath.
    I've been mulling over the issue of whether the people of a state should be held liable for that state's actions. I think I've decided that they should. I thought this about Putin's actions, but it's harder to really tie Hamas to the Palestinians en mass. Nonetheless I conclude that they should be held to account for their leaders actions even if they have a very weak influence on who those leaders should be.
    Collective punishment is a war crime: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_punishment

    We’ve got enough people on PB in favour of war crimes. Please don’t be another.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995
    Omnium said:

    TimS said:

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
    The only reason to advise people near Gaza to stay in their shelters is because something it going to happen in Gaza. And the Israelis are not stupid enough to nuke something in the immediate neighbourhood that would risk dropping fallout all over their own land.
    My assumption is that the last few days have been shaping operations and that they will launch a land invasion after all. We shall see. The invasion itself might ironically be less damaging to civilian life than the bombing if people have already fled. But I expect it’ll be a military bloodbath.
    I've been mulling over the issue of whether the people of a state should be held liable for that state's actions. I think I've decided that they should. I thought this about Putin's actions, but it's harder to really tie Hamas to the Palestinians en mass. Nonetheless I conclude that they should be held to account for their leaders actions even if they have a very weak influence on who those leaders should be.
    The answer is surely this: assuming we can know it, does public opinion support the actions of the government or not? If it does, the people share some culpability. If not, then it is deeply unfair to blame the people.

    As far as I can see:

    - Russia: overwhelmingly yes
    - China: yes
    - Israel: largely yes
    - Belarus: probably no
    - Iran: absolutely not
    - Afghanistan: tricky, it’s a mixture
    - Saudi: mainly yes
    - USA: mainly yes
    - Palestine: hard to tell

    So based on the events of the last 12 months I’d say Iranians are absolutely not culpable for their government’s actions around the Middle East in recent times.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Ken Buck and Don Bacon both vote for Mike Johnson, who is on path to the speakership

    I guess all that talk about needing to accept Biden won the election when opposing Jordan was a load of bill from Buck.

    I know they really need to agree someone, or they'll be at this forever, but in that case don't set conditions for support that won't be reached.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Faroe (Denmark), Spyr poll:

    Independence referendum

    Yes: 60%
    No: 40%

    Fieldwork: 21 September 2023
    Sample size: 800"

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1716813741072011742
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    As promised, because I know the suspense was killing you all.

    Delightful. And from here, my third Rkatsiteli on the balcony of our cottage at Mestvireni farm, after a lengthy tasting of various Qvevri wines plus peach brandy and chacha, in the middle of the Alazani valley in Eastern Georgia. The owner recently got kicked off Airbnb for refusing to receive Russian guests. Quite an accolade.

    The twinkling lights in the distance are the foot of the Great Caucasus. By day you can see the whole snowcapped ridge across the horizon. On the left the peaks are in Chechnya, on the right in Dagestan.



    Fabulous. Well jel

    I love the exoticism of Georgia

    And the khinkale! With white pepper!
    Lots of them this evening. And those nice wrapped aubergines with walnuts. And, weirdly, “kakheti chicken salad” which was both delicious and identical to Coronation Chicken.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Quite the endorsement - one vacuous virtue signaller endorses another:

    NEW: Owen Jones has said Scotland is "very lucky to have" Humza Yousaf.

    The author was praising the First Minister's handling of the Israel-Hamas war compared to his Westminster counterparts


    https://x.com/scotnational/status/1717213679832408528

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    I just logged onto the tw@tters...the abuse Rachael Riley is getting it horrific.

    The last time that happened, her management put some very expensive media lawyers on the case.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/dec/20/rachel-riley-damages-over-ex-corbyn-aide-tweet

    https://news.sky.com/story/countdowns-rachel-riley-awarded-50-000-in-libel-damages-from-political-blogger-12748737
    She has become this lightening rod for antisemities, anti-zionists, and corbynite cult to pile on her anytime she speaks on the issue of Jewish heritage or Israel.
    Yes, very wierd. Not quite sure why they pick specifically on a totally harmless TV presenter and mathematician, rather than anyone actually involved in the situation.
    Well she has very strong opinions on this issue, but given the disgusting abuse she gets anytime she talks about it, it rather proves her point.

    But other than that all she seems to talk about if the footy and countdown. Certainly not gone down the middle-life crisis tweeting 100 times a day wading into every single political issue of the day, which obviously causes the tw@ttersphere to like / share / retw@tter / abuse you.
    She’d never fit in on PB then. :smile:
    The great thing about PB is that it is much more like a pub than most social media; we can be arguing over some arcane political trivia one moment, and then agreeing on the alcohol served on Victorian football trains. The conversation can get heated, and posters can take things too far (myself included), but mostly we discuss, argue or josh in a friendly manner. The depth of knowledge would beat any pub quiz team as well.
    What's really needed is an actual pub-like club - call it the Smithsonian. Mike could pay all the bills as he so enjoys that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,558
    edited October 2023
    TimS said:

    Omnium said:

    TimS said:

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
    The only reason to advise people near Gaza to stay in their shelters is because something it going to happen in Gaza. And the Israelis are not stupid enough to nuke something in the immediate neighbourhood that would risk dropping fallout all over their own land.
    My assumption is that the last few days have been shaping operations and that they will launch a land invasion after all. We shall see. The invasion itself might ironically be less damaging to civilian life than the bombing if people have already fled. But I expect it’ll be a military bloodbath.
    I've been mulling over the issue of whether the people of a state should be held liable for that state's actions. I think I've decided that they should. I thought this about Putin's actions, but it's harder to really tie Hamas to the Palestinians en mass. Nonetheless I conclude that they should be held to account for their leaders actions even if they have a very weak influence on who those leaders should be.
    The answer is surely this: assuming we can know it, does public opinion support the actions of the government or not? If it does, the people share some culpability. If not, then it is deeply unfair to blame the people.

    As far as I can see:

    - Russia: overwhelmingly yes
    - China: yes
    - Israel: largely yes
    - Belarus: probably no
    - Iran: absolutely not
    - Afghanistan: tricky, it’s a mixture
    - Saudi: mainly yes
    - USA: mainly yes
    - Palestine: hard to tell

    So based on the events of the last 12 months I’d say Iranians are absolutely not culpable for their government’s actions around the Middle East in recent times.
    How can we possibly know whether ordinary people support their government's actions if the country in question is not a democracy? For all we know, most Russians and Chinese may be opposed to most of the things their government is doing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    Leon said:

    STARMER REPOSITIONS


    https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1717204195189641257?s=20

    "It’s clear that the amount of aid and essential utilities getting into Gaza is completely insufficient to meet the humanitarian emergency on the ground."

    I predict that won#t be enough to satisfy his pro-Palestine detractors and mighy simply annoy the other side. He's in a spot of bother here

    Triangulating will soon be into hexagating....when it comes to Israel and Palestine, you can't triangulate your way out of it.
    The Tedious Tactical Triangulator is adjusting his position once more.

    It won't be the first and won't be the last.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668

    I'm calling it: Netanyahu is not about to nuke Gaza.

    Malmesbury will be very disappointed.

    Though from the list of deployments it seems much more likely that Iran would be the target for that.
  • Roger said:

    An appeal to the moderators. Those of us who come on here to read about politics and other current affairs are being drowned out by two or three posters with an unhealthy and certainly unattractive blood lust who are simply using this site to revel in it.

    Sure if posters have an understanding or a knowledge of the politics of the area or how it might affect domestic politics fine but otherwise just give it up. Many of us know people who it affects very directly from all sides and to read the thoughts of Jessop and co is just REALLY offensive. They wouldn't know a Jew if he tripped over one still less an Arab.

    Get lost Roger. I am strongly opposed to what a lot of the people you are talking about believe but the answer is to argue the case with them not ban them or stop them from having their say. If you don't like the fact that people have different opinions to yours and hold them strongly then you really should go somewhere else.

    This current crisis is going to affect people far beyond just Israel/Palestine and it is already perhaps affecting our politics so (IMHO) it is absolutely valid it is discussed. Some of us will continue to argue the corner for moderation in the Israeli response against those who are more hardline and that is the way to handle it, not banning or censoring people.
    Thanks; I would also prefer mor moderation in the Israeli response. But I don't think that calling for one side to be 'moderate' when the other side still holds hostages, is still lobbing rockets over the border, and still wants the other side to be exterminated, is slightly odd.

    Where is Hamas's moderation?

    Hamas (and Hezbolah/Iran, who are not helping matters...) should immediately release all captives and stop missile attacks. Whilst they are still lobbing missiles, it is hard for me to see how Israel can be more moderate.
    I suppose the difference for me is I see the Israelis as a democracy which believes in and adheres to the standards of the rest of the civilised world, even if under some Governments (such as the current administration) they act in a way far below what we would expect of them. So calls for moderation and adherence to accepted rules which they themselves have signed up to is a reasonable position to take.

    The same does not apply to Hamas who are animals and who have shown throughout their history they are not interested in civilised behaviour either towards Israel or their own people.

    Basically we expect responsible governments to behave responsibly. We do not expect the same of murderous rabble.
    Yes, I can see and understand that viewpoint. The other day I mused about what would happen if Israel did not react externally to every stabbing, bombing or rocket attack; they could arrest the culprits, or shoot down missiles over/in their own territory, but do nothing that affected their neighbours. Basically, ignore the violence being inflicted upon them.

    The problem with that is that it would not stop the stabbings, bombings and missile attacks. We would expect Israel to take a beating that could lead to its destruction, especially if we did not expect any other state to do the same.

    IMV it all comes down to Hamas. How should Israel tackle Hamas? How can they deal with a government that wants them all dead?
    I am always surprised that the civilised world has so taken against assassination. We would rather start a war and kill thousands of people - many of whom might have little or nothing to do with the reasons for the war (I am thinking for example of Iraqi conscripts in both Gulf Wars) - than work out a way to kill 1 or 2 or 100 people who really are the ones who should be dead. The Israelis used to be pretty good at this and it seems a far better way to deal with things than bombing cities and probably not actually geting the people responsible.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,405
    Andy_JS said:

    TimS said:

    Omnium said:

    TimS said:

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
    The only reason to advise people near Gaza to stay in their shelters is because something it going to happen in Gaza. And the Israelis are not stupid enough to nuke something in the immediate neighbourhood that would risk dropping fallout all over their own land.
    My assumption is that the last few days have been shaping operations and that they will launch a land invasion after all. We shall see. The invasion itself might ironically be less damaging to civilian life than the bombing if people have already fled. But I expect it’ll be a military bloodbath.
    I've been mulling over the issue of whether the people of a state should be held liable for that state's actions. I think I've decided that they should. I thought this about Putin's actions, but it's harder to really tie Hamas to the Palestinians en mass. Nonetheless I conclude that they should be held to account for their leaders actions even if they have a very weak influence on who those leaders should be.
    The answer is surely this: assuming we can know it, does public opinion support the actions of the government or not? If it does, the people share some culpability. If not, then it is deeply unfair to blame the people.

    As far as I can see:

    - Russia: overwhelmingly yes
    - China: yes
    - Israel: largely yes
    - Belarus: probably no
    - Iran: absolutely not
    - Afghanistan: tricky, it’s a mixture
    - Saudi: mainly yes
    - USA: mainly yes
    - Palestine: hard to tell

    So based on the events of the last 12 months I’d say Iranians are absolutely not culpable for their government’s actions around the Middle East in recent times.
    How can we possibly know whether ordinary people support their government's actions if the country in question is not a democracy? For all we know, most Russians and Chinese may be opposed to most of the things their government is doing.
    The ministry of propaganda will tell us.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995
    edited October 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    TimS said:

    Omnium said:

    TimS said:

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
    The only reason to advise people near Gaza to stay in their shelters is because something it going to happen in Gaza. And the Israelis are not stupid enough to nuke something in the immediate neighbourhood that would risk dropping fallout all over their own land.
    My assumption is that the last few days have been shaping operations and that they will launch a land invasion after all. We shall see. The invasion itself might ironically be less damaging to civilian life than the bombing if people have already fled. But I expect it’ll be a military bloodbath.
    I've been mulling over the issue of whether the people of a state should be held liable for that state's actions. I think I've decided that they should. I thought this about Putin's actions, but it's harder to really tie Hamas to the Palestinians en mass. Nonetheless I conclude that they should be held to account for their leaders actions even if they have a very weak influence on who those leaders should be.
    The answer is surely this: assuming we can know it, does public opinion support the actions of the government or not? If it does, the people share some culpability. If not, then it is deeply unfair to blame the people.

    As far as I can see:

    - Russia: overwhelmingly yes
    - China: yes
    - Israel: largely yes
    - Belarus: probably no
    - Iran: absolutely not
    - Afghanistan: tricky, it’s a mixture
    - Saudi: mainly yes
    - USA: mainly yes
    - Palestine: hard to tell

    So based on the events of the last 12 months I’d say Iranians are absolutely not culpable for their government’s actions around the Middle East in recent times.
    How can we possibly know whether ordinary people support their government's actions if the country in question is not a democracy? For all we know, most Russians and Chinese may be opposed to most of the things their government is doing.
    I think the pictures from the streets of Iran, the chants in the football stadiums, the noise on social media, for at least a year, are pretty telling.

    And opinion polls in Russia, conducted by semi-independent but reputable pollsters, suggest pretty strong support for the Z war. Ok they may be propaganda victims but then you could argue that of anyone supporting a warmonger. And China: surveys consistently show pride in the country and its conquests, and support for taking back Taiwan. I think it’s Western wishful thinking to assume they’re all oppressed masses longing to cast off the Maoist yoke.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    Leon said:

    Israel has “agreed to delay” its ground incursion into Gaza after a request from the Pentagon, which is working to rush air-defence systems to the Middle East.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/isral-war-gaza-latest-news-palestinian-un-hostages-00zvm6jl8

    Times quoting WSJ.

    I am beginning to think this invasion is never going to happen. It is too dangerous for Israel, they easily risk getting bogged down in a hideous unwinnable urban war, and it is extremely likely to kick off a wider war, starting with a Hezbollah incursion from the north (and Israel has already been burned by Hezbollah)

    This feels like an immense strategic defeat for Israel. They have been brutally attacked, yet cannot get at the attacker. Hamas will be wildly celebrating
    Israel exists because enough Jews decided they needed their own state to protect them from those who would eradicate them. If Israel cannot protect Jews then what is it for?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Which ones?

    And who do they want instead?

    Oh, he wouldn't.

    He couldn't?

    He mustn't...

    He bloody will, won't he?

    Chancellor Grant Shapps....
    To be followed by Prime Minister Grant Shapps after Rishi is ousted?

    Proof positive that "things can only get better" is not factual.
    I think that if the next British Prime Minister was a Jew it would send a non-trivial proportion of the planet into meltdown.
    Or perhaps the vast majority of us would have no idea Shapps was even Jewish. I had no idea and have no interest in his religion. I know Sunak is a Hindu but no idea how seriously he takes it, and that Blair had some religious influences, not a clue on Cameron, May, Brown, Major, Thatcher. Boris I suspect would have been whatever got him laid and/or promoted at the time.

    Most of us don't care, and most PMs are wise enough not to make a big deal of it.
    Keir Starmer's wife is also Jewish.

    https://www.tatler.com/article/who-is-keir-starmers-wife-victoria
    Indeed, although Royale is himself an atheist I believe. Would be good to have an unapologetically atheist PM, for a change. The nearest we got in modern times is that godless rotter Bozza, who occasionally pretended to be religious when convenient for him.
    Starmer is an atheist as were former Labour PMs Attlee and Callaghan.

    Other party leaders who were atheists but never became PM include Corbyn, Clegg, Ed Miliband and Foot.

    And your main man Bozzatron, at least on some Tuesdays, occasionally Wednesdays and on other days at his discretion.
    No Boris was baptised Roman Catholic, switched to C of E and having married Carrie at Westminster cathedral is now back Catholic again
    Very hard to know if this signals he is a man who thinks deeply about theological issues and grapples on a daily basis with complex ecumenical matters, or if it indicates he's a massive bullsh1tter who just does whatever is convenient in order to book a cathedral.
    Maybe he has, with Yeats, reached this age, and point in his life:

    Now that my ladder's gone
    I must lie down where all the ladders start
    In the foul rag and bone shop of the heart.
    OT word association. Yeats won the Gold Cup four times, but you cannot write Yeats on the Betfair forum (it is replaced by asterisks). No-one knows why.
    "Cast a cold eye on life, on death. Horseman, pass by”. *****
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995

    Roger said:

    An appeal to the moderators. Those of us who come on here to read about politics and other current affairs are being drowned out by two or three posters with an unhealthy and certainly unattractive blood lust who are simply using this site to revel in it.

    Sure if posters have an understanding or a knowledge of the politics of the area or how it might affect domestic politics fine but otherwise just give it up. Many of us know people who it affects very directly from all sides and to read the thoughts of Jessop and co is just REALLY offensive. They wouldn't know a Jew if he tripped over one still less an Arab.

    Get lost Roger. I am strongly opposed to what a lot of the people you are talking about believe but the answer is to argue the case with them not ban them or stop them from having their say. If you don't like the fact that people have different opinions to yours and hold them strongly then you really should go somewhere else.

    This current crisis is going to affect people far beyond just Israel/Palestine and it is already perhaps affecting our politics so (IMHO) it is absolutely valid it is discussed. Some of us will continue to argue the corner for moderation in the Israeli response against those who are more hardline and that is the way to handle it, not banning or censoring people.
    Thanks; I would also prefer mor moderation in the Israeli response. But I don't think that calling for one side to be 'moderate' when the other side still holds hostages, is still lobbing rockets over the border, and still wants the other side to be exterminated, is slightly odd.

    Where is Hamas's moderation?

    Hamas (and Hezbolah/Iran, who are not helping matters...) should immediately release all captives and stop missile attacks. Whilst they are still lobbing missiles, it is hard for me to see how Israel can be more moderate.
    I suppose the difference for me is I see the Israelis as a democracy which believes in and adheres to the standards of the rest of the civilised world, even if under some Governments (such as the current administration) they act in a way far below what we would expect of them. So calls for moderation and adherence to accepted rules which they themselves have signed up to is a reasonable position to take.

    The same does not apply to Hamas who are animals and who have shown throughout their history they are not interested in civilised behaviour either towards Israel or their own people.

    Basically we expect responsible governments to behave responsibly. We do not expect the same of murderous rabble.
    Yes, I can see and understand that viewpoint. The other day I mused about what would happen if Israel did not react externally to every stabbing, bombing or rocket attack; they could arrest the culprits, or shoot down missiles over/in their own territory, but do nothing that affected their neighbours. Basically, ignore the violence being inflicted upon them.

    The problem with that is that it would not stop the stabbings, bombings and missile attacks. We would expect Israel to take a beating that could lead to its destruction, especially if we did not expect any other state to do the same.

    IMV it all comes down to Hamas. How should Israel tackle Hamas? How can they deal with a government that wants them all dead?
    I am always surprised that the civilised world has so taken against assassination. We would rather start a war and kill thousands of people - many of whom might have little or nothing to do with the reasons for the war (I am thinking for example of Iraqi conscripts in both Gulf Wars) - than work out a way to kill 1 or 2 or 100 people who really are the ones who should be dead. The Israelis used to be pretty good at this and it seems a far better way to deal with things than bombing cities and probably not actually geting the people responsible.
    I’m rather surprised they’ve not taken this route. Perhaps fear of reciprocation?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Andy_JS said:

    TimS said:

    Omnium said:

    TimS said:

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
    The only reason to advise people near Gaza to stay in their shelters is because something it going to happen in Gaza. And the Israelis are not stupid enough to nuke something in the immediate neighbourhood that would risk dropping fallout all over their own land.
    My assumption is that the last few days have been shaping operations and that they will launch a land invasion after all. We shall see. The invasion itself might ironically be less damaging to civilian life than the bombing if people have already fled. But I expect it’ll be a military bloodbath.
    I've been mulling over the issue of whether the people of a state should be held liable for that state's actions. I think I've decided that they should. I thought this about Putin's actions, but it's harder to really tie Hamas to the Palestinians en mass. Nonetheless I conclude that they should be held to account for their leaders actions even if they have a very weak influence on who those leaders should be.
    The answer is surely this: assuming we can know it, does public opinion support the actions of the government or not? If it does, the people share some culpability. If not, then it is deeply unfair to blame the people.

    As far as I can see:

    - Russia: overwhelmingly yes
    - China: yes
    - Israel: largely yes
    - Belarus: probably no
    - Iran: absolutely not
    - Afghanistan: tricky, it’s a mixture
    - Saudi: mainly yes
    - USA: mainly yes
    - Palestine: hard to tell

    So based on the events of the last 12 months I’d say Iranians are absolutely not culpable for their government’s actions around the Middle East in recent times.
    How can we possibly know whether ordinary people support their government's actions if the country in question is not a democracy?
    Harder, but not impossible. How much resistance to the government actions occurs, taking account of how much opposition is even possible within that state? What does free media or non-state media (if present) say about things? Are there examples of political opposition to the governing regime and its actions, like other parties or demonstrations?

    It's not perfect, and so level of condemnation would need to be considered warily, but not all dictatorships and authoritarian regimes are the same, some have more popular support, some allow a bit more leeway in terms of alternative voices, so it will be possible to make some assessments.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765

    Omnium said:

    TimS said:

    Foss said:

    Leon said:

    Something Significant appears to be ongoing tonight in Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to make a Statement sometime in the coming minutes and following that the Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Force will also make a Statement; both of these Statement will likely be in someway linked to the order released earlier by the IDF Homefront Command for Residents near the Gaza Strip.

    IDF Homefront Command has just released an order for all Residents who have not Evacuated and are still near the Gaza Strip to remain near Bomb Shelters until further notice.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717218544813781304?s=20

    Rumors are ongoing regarding the Assassination of a High-Ranking Military Official of Hamas who was Killed today by an Airstrike on the Gaza Strip.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717216338635075817?s=20

    Calling it. A nuke
    The only reason to advise people near Gaza to stay in their shelters is because something it going to happen in Gaza. And the Israelis are not stupid enough to nuke something in the immediate neighbourhood that would risk dropping fallout all over their own land.
    My assumption is that the last few days have been shaping operations and that they will launch a land invasion after all. We shall see. The invasion itself might ironically be less damaging to civilian life than the bombing if people have already fled. But I expect it’ll be a military bloodbath.
    I've been mulling over the issue of whether the people of a state should be held liable for that state's actions. I think I've decided that they should. I thought this about Putin's actions, but it's harder to really tie Hamas to the Palestinians en mass. Nonetheless I conclude that they should be held to account for their leaders actions even if they have a very weak influence on who those leaders should be.
    Collective punishment is a war crime: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_punishment

    We’ve got enough people on PB in favour of war crimes. Please don’t be another.
    I'm more collective liability than suggesting punishment. So I think we should exclude Russians and Palestinians from the normal proceedings of society.

    The Palestinians need aid etc, and that definitely shouldn't stop. No Palestinian or Russian should be able to conduct 'normal business'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Roger said:

    An appeal to the moderators. Those of us who come on here to read about politics and other current affairs are being drowned out by two or three posters with an unhealthy and certainly unattractive blood lust who are simply using this site to revel in it.

    Sure if posters have an understanding or a knowledge of the politics of the area or how it might affect domestic politics fine but otherwise just give it up. Many of us know people who it affects very directly from all sides and to read the thoughts of Jessop and co is just REALLY offensive. They wouldn't know a Jew if he tripped over one still less an Arab.

    Get lost Roger. I am strongly opposed to what a lot of the people you are talking about believe but the answer is to argue the case with them not ban them or stop them from having their say. If you don't like the fact that people have different opinions to yours and hold them strongly then you really should go somewhere else.

    This current crisis is going to affect people far beyond just Israel/Palestine and it is already perhaps affecting our politics so (IMHO) it is absolutely valid it is discussed. Some of us will continue to argue the corner for moderation in the Israeli response against those who are more hardline and that is the way to handle it, not banning or censoring people.
    Thanks; I would also prefer mor moderation in the Israeli response. But I don't think that calling for one side to be 'moderate' when the other side still holds hostages, is still lobbing rockets over the border, and still wants the other side to be exterminated, is slightly odd.

    Where is Hamas's moderation?

    Hamas (and Hezbolah/Iran, who are not helping matters...) should immediately release all captives and stop missile attacks. Whilst they are still lobbing missiles, it is hard for me to see how Israel can be more moderate.
    I suppose the difference for me is I see the Israelis as a democracy which believes in and adheres to the standards of the rest of the civilised world, even if under some Governments (such as the current administration) they act in a way far below what we would expect of them. So calls for moderation and adherence to accepted rules which they themselves have signed up to is a reasonable position to take.

    The same does not apply to Hamas who are animals and who have shown throughout their history they are not interested in civilised behaviour either towards Israel or their own people.

    Basically we expect responsible governments to behave responsibly. We do not expect the same of murderous rabble.
    Yes, I can see and understand that viewpoint. The other day I mused about what would happen if Israel did not react externally to every stabbing, bombing or rocket attack; they could arrest the culprits, or shoot down missiles over/in their own territory, but do nothing that affected their neighbours. Basically, ignore the violence being inflicted upon them.

    The problem with that is that it would not stop the stabbings, bombings and missile attacks. We would expect Israel to take a beating that could lead to its destruction, especially if we did not expect any other state to do the same.

    IMV it all comes down to Hamas. How should Israel tackle Hamas? How can they deal with a government that wants them all dead?
    I am always surprised that the civilised world has so taken against assassination. We would rather start a war and kill thousands of people - many of whom might have little or nothing to do with the reasons for the war (I am thinking for example of Iraqi conscripts in both Gulf Wars) - than work out a way to kill 1 or 2 or 100 people who really are the ones who should be dead. The Israelis used to be pretty good at this and it seems a far better way to deal with things than bombing cities and probably not actually geting the people responsible.
    It's not against assassination of minor figures and lieutenants, see many drone strikes. It's not subtle assassination, granted.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,995
    Iran in fact could be the Achilles heel of political Islam eventually.

    My Georgian interlocutors have reminded me that most of this country’s time under the Persian occupation was when that empire was Zoroastrian. That was the Persian national religion. Islam is a modern thing for them. The way things are going it seems not impossible that liberal Iranians could end up rejecting Islam itself. Seems far fetched, but such is their hatred of the Ayatollahs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    kle4 said:

    Ken Buck and Don Bacon both vote for Mike Johnson, who is on path to the speakership

    I guess all that talk about needing to accept Biden won the election when opposing Jordan was a load of bill from Buck.

    I know they really need to agree someone, or they'll be at this forever, but in that case don't set conditions for support that won't be reached.

    The GOP 'squishes' have again decided to surrender to Trump.
    So much for the talk of their finding a backbone.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    An appeal to the moderators. Those of us who come on here to read about politics and other current affairs are being drowned out by two or three posters with an unhealthy and certainly unattractive blood lust who are simply using this site to revel in it.

    Sure if posters have an understanding or a knowledge of the politics of the area or how it might affect domestic politics fine but otherwise just give it up. Many of us know people who it affects very directly from all sides and to read the thoughts of Jessop and co is just REALLY offensive. They wouldn't know a Jew if he tripped over one still less an Arab.

    Fuck off Roger. Josiah Jessop is a thoroughly moderate poster.
    I would just gently say to @Roger it is not correct to attempt to close down a poster/posters, and if the post is upsetting then move on

    I have had a 'wee' bit better day today, even managing to cook a light tea for my dear wife as a change from the soup we have been having since I went into hospital. We have both lost our taste

    Taking a day at a time but I would again reiterate that this is a very special forum and those running it and the moderators can be trusted to protect it without being asked
    Wodger.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,400
    Mike Johnson elected Squeaker.

    How long will he last?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    ydoethur said:

    Mike Johnson elected Squeaker.

    How long will he last?

    Until he upsets Trump.
This discussion has been closed.