politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds smaller CON to LA

Dixie said:

Up to May 2010 the Lib/Lab vote was about 50% and Tories about 40%, the rest 10%. Now the Lib/Lab vote in opinion polls is about 40% and right wing is 50% (Tory/UKIP).

I would have hoped that reading polls would have weaned people off:
Lab +LibD = X%
Tory+UKIP= Y%

As the old saying goes 'I think you'll find its a bit more complicated than that....'

CarlottaVance said:

Alistair said:

TGOHF said:

Alistair said:

TGOHF said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TGOHF said:

Must be Kipper "the Tripoli buses ran on time under Muammar.." theme of theday

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukips-mark-reckless-colonel-gaddafi-good-halting-immigration-1473253

"Tory defector Reckless said the deposed leader had stopped boats from making the hazardous voyage across the Mediterranean sea to Italy.

He said: "Whatever people say about Gaddafi, one thing is he didn't allow those boats to come across."

Good to see someone offering a measured opinion of Gadaffi, as opposed to being photographed cuddling him one minute, and thinking he's satan's spawn as soon as the Americans decide they want rid.

Apart from arming the IRA and blowing up a passenger plane over the Uk its difficult to see what was wrong with the chap..

By far the biggest scandal of Al-Mehgrahi's release

What bigger than the SNP releasing a convicted mass murdering terrorist ? I think not.

Dropping his appeal has prevented this line of inquiry being officially investigated.

Wasn't that a condition of his release?

Killed several birds (SNP & UK govt) birds with one stone......

It absolutely and totally was not a condition of his release. *WINK*

He would have had to drop his appeal to be transferred under the British governments Prisoner Transfer Agreement as he couldn't be transferred whilst an appeal was pending. Instead he was released by the Scottish Government under compassionate release which, legally, did not require him to drop the appeal to qualify for release.

So absolutely totally 100% coincidence that it happened. *WINK*

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

Interesting that when the second seat specific question was asked the CON share increased by an average 1.5% across the 12 seats polled.

Mike, why do you think that is? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

Also, do you think UKIP's strength in Cannock is just a one-off or indicative of a much greater potential than has generally been imagined?

By my reckoning, Cannock Chase cannot have been higher than about 40 in UKIP's target list. Unless there are specific local factors to explain their progress there (and I don't think the little Nazi hoo-hah really does) LA's poll may be an indication that the value still lies in backing UKIP seats, generally and individually.

Cannock Chase is not a one off, I was suspecting for a long time that UKIP has a stronghold somewhere in the midlands due to Enoch Powell, that has been confirmed now.
Cannock Chase is the second Midlands seat polled that UKIP is close, the other is Walsall North and both share a border.

Logically the other seats bordering Cannock Chase and Walsall North should have similar UKIP strength.

For comparisons:
Cannock Chase LAB 33, UKIP 30
Walsall North LAB 37, UKIP 30

MikeSmithson said:

Interesting that when the second seat specific question was asked the CON share increased by an average 1.5% across the 12 seats polled.

Incumbency!!!!

anotherDave said:

Tissue_Price said:

Speedy said:

A few things from the marginals poll:

1. Lord Ashcroft is approaching the upper boundary of Labour gains, but not there yet, with 38 Labour gains from the Tories so far.

2. There is a UKIP stronghold in the midlands, Cannock Chase is the second midlands seat with UKIP close to the winning post and is neighboring Walsall North, so that suggests a strong local UKIP presence.

3. Aidan Burley's chances of being the next defector to UKIP suddenly become severe.

Aidan Burley is stepping down anyway. If he felt like doing the Tories a favour [in recognition of the damage he did them] then a defection to UKIP would be a thoughtful parting gift.

"In Cannock Chase, UKIP became the official opposition on the district council after winning enough seats to put them level with the Tories. The stalemate was resolved with the shock decision of Rawnsley councillor Jodie Jones, fiancee of Conservative MP Aidan Burley, to resign the party whip and stand as an independent."

http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2014/05/27/ukip-puts-focus-on-west-midlands-after-elections-success/

There is no way UKIP would accept Burley. He'd be toxic.

Didn't know about his fiancee. Looks like that was a gesture of revenge against his former Party. He would certainly seem to have more of a beef with them than with UKIP, so I cannot imagine him wanting to pique Farage rather than Cameron.

Cannock Chase looks like posing the classic dilemma for local Tory voters. Do they vote Tory and risk getting ED? Tricky.

There are one or two other seats on Lord A's list of which the same question could be asked, but I guess it will be put to one side until we get a little closer to the election. UKIP need to improve into second place in these types of constituency if they are to force the question in a meaningful way. They're running at about an average of 20% in His Lordship's sample - good, but not generally enough to force local voters to start mulling over a tactical vote.

woody662 said:

MikeSmithson said:

Interesting that when the second seat specific question was asked the CON share increased by an average 1.5% across the 12 seats polled.

Incumbency!!!!

Unless I'm missing something, Labour's share goes up by the same amount.

Socrates said:

@isam

You have to love the Conservative argument: "It's ever so important we all come together to defeat Labour. Oh, and you're all mentally deficient."

"I know most of you are frustrated by the slow pace of change, such is life in a coalition. Trust me, we're as frustrated as you are. I think the British public is now slowly understanding that although the recovery isn't yet everyone's recovery...yet...we are working towards that and we are once more the party trusted to manage the economy.

"Further, I want you to know that only under the Conservatives, the Conservatives, are you going to get what we understand you believe so strongly we must have - an in/out referendum on Europe. We believe it too.

"As such, can you please leave those fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists and help us gain an outright majority."

Artist said:

woody662 said:

MikeSmithson said:

Interesting that when the second seat specific question was asked the CON share increased by an average 1.5% across the 12 seats polled.

Incumbency!!!!

Unless I'm missing something, Labour's share goes up by the same amount.

Reluctant tactical votes for either side from UKIP/Greens?

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

Interesting that when the second seat specific question was asked the CON share increased by an average 1.5% across the 12 seats polled.

Mike, why do you think that is? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

Also, do you think UKIP's strength in Cannock is just a one-off or indicative of a much greater potential than has generally been imagined?

By my reckoning, Cannock Chase cannot have been higher than about 40 in UKIP's target list. Unless there are specific local factors to explain their progress there (and I don't think the little Nazi hoo-hah really does) LA's poll may be an indication that the value still lies in backing UKIP seats, generally and individually.

What more can I do than publish a list of 78 seats that I fancy UKIP to do well in, two years in advance of the GE, containing the biggest movers in the constituency betting markets, at no cost to PBers?

I could have been put off after advising a massive bet on UKIP to outpoll the Tories in the Euros at 11/10, and being told by another, more celebrated, PB tipster that I didn't know how to work out match bets, despite being an odds compiler for over a decade. But they don't call me altruistic isam for nothing... I rode out the flak, and it didn't stop me sharing the bounty of tips

I then offered 4/6 about UKIP scoring under 10% in GE 2015, while Shadsy was offering 1/5.. rather than take the hint, people still maintained I was wrong about UKIP, and bet against me, as they did when I offered 4/6 about LD/UKIP when the market was 2/5

Despite being told I was naïve in tipping UKIP in Clacton at anything better than 1/3 on the day of Carswell's defection, and the insult of privately tipping over 50% turnout to people who then publicly advised the forum to back under 50%, still I advised backing Reckless to win Rochester, only for more slime to be flung... by people thinking with their rosettes

I own up to tipping UKIP at 10/1 in H&M, and even backed it at 5/2! Apologies to those who followed me in there, you might call it a good value loser

So, one last time, turnout in Rochester, under 50% at 5/6, with Sky bet (take 4/5 with Ladbrokes if you need to).. don't say you weren't told

TheWatcher said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

logical_song said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Anorak said:

isam said:

TheWatcher said:

TGOHF said:

TheWatcher said:

TGOHF said:

Must be Kipper "the Tripoli buses ran on time under Muammar.." theme of theday

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukips-mark-reckless-colonel-gaddafi-good-halting-immigration-1473253

"Tory defector Reckless said the deposed leader had stopped boats from making the hazardous voyage across the Mediterranean sea to Italy.

He said: "Whatever people say about Gaddafi, one thing is he didn't allow those boats to come across."

It's almost a 'Colonel, I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability...' moment.

Quite - I hope Putin doesnt feel too spurned - he thought he had the Kipper poster dictator gig sewn up..

'A real gent that Muammar. Loved his mum, kept all the troublesome brown people in order, and off the Italian beaches...'

Hardly a good line to take as the Conservatives prefer to leave "the brown people" to drown

Sigh. We'd prefer it if countries took responsibility for the waters adjacent to them, just as the UK does.

Still, UKIP appears to prefer a system where a dictator terrorises the whole nation, and an effective police state prevents migrants from setting out at all. Sort of like East Germany with more sand and sunshine.

Another one who needs to answer the question whether they would rather live in Libya under Gadaffi, or currently.

Surely those can't be the only choices.

Well apparently the other choice is to get aboard a leaky ship to Blighty, but for the purposes of this exercise, those are the two options.

Blighty? No. Largely France, Spain, and Italy.

Pretty much anywhere it would seem to escape the flowering of democracy in newly liberated Libya.

I live next door to Cannock Chase and I'm not at all surprised by UKIP being on 30%. The demographics are perfect for them for any seat excluding retirement areas such as Clacton. The constituency is 99% white, mostly upper working-class and lower middle-class, and full of people who've moved out from the West Midlands conurbation in the last 20/30 years. The area is looked down upon by middle-class people in neighbouring seats like Sutton Coldfield, Stone and Lichfield, but at the same time is probably reviled by liberal types who've chosen to remain living in Birmingham.

Socrates said:

@TOPPING

If you accuse UKIP of being racist for wanting to reduce immigration, for being alarmed at the grooming gangs not being investigated properly, for saying it's understandable that you have a few concerns that need alleviating should a bunch of Eastern European men move in next door, etc, then you're accusing most of the people voting UKIP of being racist too.

Think he was joking there, Socco!!!

Do find a bit weird when I am told to vote Tory to get a referendum..

My local MP has just told me "Labour and the Lib Dems wont, and UKIP cant"

Well for one, if UKIP cant, neither can the Lib Dems.

Secondly, I would think it unwise to think, if Miliband needed 10 MPs to get a majority, and UKIP had 10, that he wouldn't be willing to have a referendum in order to be PM

Cameron had one for Scotland and AV despite wanting the Status Quo to remain

isam said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

MikeSmithson said:

Interesting that when the second seat specific question was asked the CON share increased by an average 1.5% across the 12 seats polled.

Mike, why do you think that is? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.

Also, do you think UKIP's strength in Cannock is just a one-off or indicative of a much greater potential than has generally been imagined?

By my reckoning, Cannock Chase cannot have been higher than about 40 in UKIP's target list. Unless there are specific local factors to explain their progress there (and I don't think the little Nazi hoo-hah really does) LA's poll may be an indication that the value still lies in backing UKIP seats, generally and individually.

What more can I do than publish a list of 78 seats that I fancy UKIP to do well in, two years in advance of the GE, containing the biggest movers in the constituency betting markets, at no cost to PBers?

I could have been put off after advising a massive bet on UKIP to outpoll the Tories in the Euros at 11/10, and being told by another, more celebrated, PB tipster that I didn't know how to work out match bets, despite being an odds compiler for over a decade. But they don't call me altruistic isam for nothing... I rode out the flak, and it didn't stop me sharing the bounty of tips

I then offered 4/6 about UKIP scoring under 10% in GE 2015, while Shadsy was offering 1/5.. rather than take the hint, people still maintained I was wrong about UKIP, and bet against me, as they did when I offered 4/6 about LD/UKIP when the market was 2/5

Despite being told I was naïve in tipping UKIP in Clacton at anything better than 1/3 on the day of Carswell's defection, and the insult of privately tipping over 50% turnout to people who then publicly advised the forum to back under 50%, still I advised backing Reckless to win Rochester, only for more slime to be flung... by people thinking with their rosettes

I own up to tipping UKIP at 10/1 in H&M, and even backed it at 5/2! Apologies to those who followed me in there, you might call it a good value loser

So, one last time, turnout in Rochester, under 50% at 5/6, with Sky bet (take 4/5 with Ladbrokes if you need to).. don't say you weren't told

But be fair, Isam, most of those bets are related contingencies. They're either all good or all bad.

I've been backing UKIP assiduously for a year now - they've virtually been the only show in town - and although I am sitting on a lot of value, it only takes one bad moment and it it all goes up in smoke.

Please, Nigel, watch what you say.

Socrates said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Indigo said:

FalseFlag said:

Foreign policy should be dictated by the pursuit of the national interest within acceptable moral boundaries.

"We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."

YES. Note the word 'our' rather than 'America's'. Palmerston must be turning in his grave.

I didn't see your answer the other day on what you thought probably happened on 9/11.

You think that we should subordinate our interests to that of the Americans?

Socrates said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Indigo said:

FalseFlag said:

Foreign policy should be dictated by the pursuit of the national interest within acceptable moral boundaries.

"We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."

YES. Note the word 'our' rather than 'America's'. Palmerston must be turning in his grave.

I didn't see your answer the other day on what you thought probably happened on 9/11.

I didn't see the question, apologies. I tend toward the theory that the attack was planned and carried out by deep state elements or rogue networks within the US. Not that the planes or the hijackers did not exist, just that they were part of a far wider plan.

FluffyThoughts said:

Strasbourg was once Polish (Duchy-of-Alsace; due to inter-Euro stupidity).

I don't think Strasbourg was ever Polish! It was German between 1871 and 1919, and was part of the Holy Roman Empire until 1697.

Unless you're thinking of the other former German Strasburg, now the town of Brodnica in Poland?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brodnica

@jameschappers: Ed Miliband has lost 4pc of Gordon Brown's 2010 'core vote': 'This was meant to be impossible' http://t.co/Kv79x6z3Vh

Afternoon all, my latest effort on the constituency markets, this time looking at the Greens, Plaid Cymru, Respect and the NHA:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/other-parties-battlegrounds-in-november.html

AndyJS said:

I live next door to Cannock Chase and I'm not at all surprised by UKIP being on 30%. The demographics are perfect for them for any seat excluding retirement areas such as Clacton. The constituency is 99% white, mostly upper working-class and lower middle-class, and full of people who've moved out from the West Midlands conurbation in the last 20/30 years. The area is looked down upon by middle-class people in neighbouring seats like Sutton Coldfield, Stone and Lichfield, but at the same time is probably reviled by liberal types who've chosen to remain living in Birmingham.

What do you think about Stafford?
They are bordering Cannock Chase, they have similar demographics though Stafford is a tad older and Labour didn't do well there in the 2013 locals.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Alistair said:

Socrates said:

£109 billion out of a total of £117 billion spent by the EU in 2013 was "affected by material error”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11209248/EU-auditors-refuse-to-sign-off-more-than-100billion-of-its-own-spending.html

The EU has a higher level of accountancy standards than many of its constituent countries. If the UK had the same rules then it too would be unable to sign off on its unified accounts.

Does anybody know where I can read a decent, non-partisan account of what went wrong here?

Refusal of an audit certificate would be disastrous for most companies but evidently different rules apply to the EU. I'm wondering just how serious the qualification is? If it was a one-off, long ago, and subsequent accounts have only been qualified because the prior error has not been corrected, it's not great but it does put it into some sort of perspective.

Otoh, if the EU accounting is a perennial shambles there really is a case for closing the whole joint down.

This may have already been answered - been in a meeting all afternoon.

My understanding is that it isn't the "numbers" per se.

The issue is that certain of the national states (I believe Greece and Italy but it could be others are well) are unable to provide/dont provide a sufficient paper trail so that the auditors can reconcile that the EU regional grants are *actually* spent on what they tell the EU they are spent on.

Hence the qualification is around financial controls rather than anything else (IMHO this is more serious than just an error in a number because it's a systemic problem)

Tissue_Price said:

May2015 ‏@May2015NS

... For the Ashcroft poll watcher in you.. we've brought together & mapped all 88: http://may2015.com/ashcroft

Ahh that is a good one.

Incidentally, this poll again shows slightly higher swings on average than in the country as a whole - roughly equivalent to a Labour lead of 3 nationally. I'd hesitate to draw many conclusions, except that we're not seeing a net incumbency bonus.

Tissue_Price said:

May2015 ‏@May2015NS

... For the Ashcroft poll watcher in you.. we've brought together & mapped all 88: http://may2015.com/ashcroft

Is that every single english marginal ?

NickPalmer said:

Incidentally, this poll again shows slightly higher swings on average than in the country as a whole - roughly equivalent to a Labour lead of 3 nationally. I'd hesitate to draw many conclusions, except that we're not seeing a net incumbency bonus.

I imagine a lot of voters look at the 2010 Tory intake and have no affinity with them at all.

@Isam

Not related contingencies? OK then, I'll have a ten pound win accumulator on UKIP to win Clacton, Rochester, Boston, Thanet South..... ;-)

Seriously, there's a fair measure of consensus that we could see some really off-the-map results at the GE. The problem is identifying them. We're doing well though. We've got Cannock, and a few others. Let's keep up the good work.

We need first hand reports from people who aren't afraid to admit they live amongst UKIP-voters.

Perhaps the biggest problem for Labour at the moment is the possibility that an increasing number of LD defectors are moving over to the Greens rather than to them. The Greens have been selecting a large number of candidates in recent days and weeks, many of them in constituencies they didn't contest in 2010. They usually poll at least 500 votes, even in weak areas.

John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul · 12m12 minutes ago
#PMQs review: 6-0 to Ed Miliband @IndyVoices http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/prime-ministers-questions-an-intricate-debate-that-i-scored-sixnil-to-miliband-9841484.html …

AndyJS said:

Perhaps the biggest problem for Labour at the moment is the possibility that an increasing number of LD defectors are moving over to the Greens rather than to them. The Greens have been selecting a large number of candidates in recent days and weeks, many of them in constituencies they didn't contest in 2010. They usually poll at least 500 votes, even in weak areas.

Lord Ashcroft prompts respondents in his polls for the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, Labour and UKIP, but not for the Greens. This is worth bearing in mind, not just for its implications on the Greens' performance but for the possible impact on the performance of other parties, particularly Labour.

manofkent2014 said:

BenM said:

NickPalmer said:

Incidentally, this poll again shows slightly higher swings on average than in the country as a whole - roughly equivalent to a Labour lead of 3 nationally. I'd hesitate to draw many conclusions, except that we're not seeing a net incumbency bonus.

I imagine a lot of voters look at the 2010 Tory intake and have no affinity with them at all.

Much as they have no affinity with the Ed's, Tristram's and Rachel's of the Labour Party

They're not first time incumbents though are they?

The motley crew of 2010 Tea Party Tories are. Looks like they've alienated a lot of their constituents.

AndyJS said:

Speedy: the Stafford constituency is fairly middle-class so I don't see UKIP having any chance of winning. They might do well in the town itself but the leafy suburbs/villages should ensure a Tory hold.

So that leaves 2-3 possible UKIP gains in the Midlands: Cannock Chase, Walsall North and perhaps Walsall South.

antifrank said:

AndyJS said:

Perhaps the biggest problem for Labour at the moment is the possibility that an increasing number of LD defectors are moving over to the Greens rather than to them. The Greens have been selecting a large number of candidates in recent days and weeks, many of them in constituencies they didn't contest in 2010. They usually poll at least 500 votes, even in weak areas.

Lord Ashcroft prompts respondents in his polls for the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, Labour and UKIP, but not for the Greens. This is worth bearing in mind, not just for its implications on the Greens' performance but for the possible impact on the performance of other parties, particularly Labour.

Probably makes the Conservatives slightly safer in Solihull I'd guess.

OTOH Can't exactly see the Greens being a worry in Bury

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

Speedy: the Stafford constituency is fairly middle-class so I don't see UKIP having any chance of winning. They might do well in the town itself but the leafy suburbs/villages should ensure a Tory hold.

So that leaves 2-3 possible UKIP gains in the Midlands: Cannock Chase, Walsall North and perhaps Walsall South.

Dudley North as well.

Other seats where UKIP might do better than expected IMO:

Tamworth, Stourbridge, B'ham Northfield, Wolverhampton NE, Dudley South, Wyre Forest, Staffs Moorlands, Stoke North, Newcastle-under-Lyme.

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

Speedy: the Stafford constituency is fairly middle-class so I don't see UKIP having any chance of winning. They might do well in the town itself but the leafy suburbs/villages should ensure a Tory hold.

So that leaves 2-3 possible UKIP gains in the Midlands: Cannock Chase, Walsall North and perhaps Walsall South.

Two or more seats would be a pretty decent return in what has so far been thought of as infertile territory for them.

Lord Ashcroft did poll Sheffield Hallam in late 2010 and had it as a LD hold

http://www.lordashcroft.com/pdf/sheffield_hallam_poll_tables.pdf

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

AndyJS said:

Perhaps the biggest problem for Labour at the moment is the possibility that an increasing number of LD defectors are moving over to the Greens rather than to them. The Greens have been selecting a large number of candidates in recent days and weeks, many of them in constituencies they didn't contest in 2010. They usually poll at least 500 votes, even in weak areas.

Lord Ashcroft prompts respondents in his polls for the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, Labour and UKIP, but not for the Greens. This is worth bearing in mind, not just for its implications on the Greens' performance but for the possible impact on the performance of other parties, particularly Labour.

Probably makes the Conservatives slightly safer in Solihull I'd guess.

OTOH Can't exactly see the Greens being a worry in Bury

I doubt that the proprietors of this new venture had Bury North lined up as their second branch:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/food/article-2821655/UK-s-cereal-cafe-Cereal-Killer-Caf-open-London.html

Speedy said:

Pulpstar said:

SandyRentool said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

May2015 ‏@May2015NS

... For the Ashcroft poll watcher in you.. we've brought together & mapped all 88: http://may2015.com/ashcroft

Is that every single english marginal ?

Not until he polls Sheffield Hallam!

I'll admit I've gone from £40 to win £10 on Clegg there to £10 to win £3.

I think he holds, but I have no confidence backing him whatsoever.

Do not talk about Sheffield Hallam while TSE is lurking around.

Perhaps I should break the habit of a lifetime and go and campaign for Labour there. Seeing Clegg lose his seat on General Election night would be absolutely hilarious.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lord Ashcroft did poll Sheffield Hallam in late 2010 and had it as a LD hold

http://www.lordashcroft.com/pdf/sheffield_hallam_poll_tables.pdf

I told you 6 months ago about that poll, a 2 point difference in October 2010 and since then the LD have fallen further means that Clegg is in trouble.
Also the newer ICM poll had Clegg battling for second place with the Tories with Labour 10 points ahead.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lord Ashcroft did poll Sheffield Hallam in late 2010 and had it as a LD hold

http://www.lordashcroft.com/pdf/sheffield_hallam_poll_tables.pdf

Four years ago? Not exactly an up-to-date poll.

antifrank said:

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

Pulpstar said:

SandyRentool said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

May2015 ‏@May2015NS

... For the Ashcroft poll watcher in you.. we've brought together & mapped all 88: http://may2015.com/ashcroft

Is that every single english marginal ?

Not until he polls Sheffield Hallam!

I'll admit I've gone from £40 to win £10 on Clegg there to £10 to win £3.

I think he holds, but I have no confidence backing him whatsoever.

Do not talk about Sheffield Hallam while TSE is lurking around.

Perhaps I should break the habit of a lifetime and go and campaign for Labour there. Seeing Clegg lose his seat on General Election night would be absolutely hilarious.

Not for those of us who have invested large sums on a Lib Dem hold in Sheffield Hallam it wouldn't be.

Well you had 4 years time to liquidate your investment in Sheffield Hallam LD hold.
You can't say you didn't knew of the risk, the constituency polls were there for all of us to see.

Socrates said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Socrates said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Indigo said:

FalseFlag said:

Foreign policy should be dictated by the pursuit of the national interest within acceptable moral boundaries.

"We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."

YES. Note the word 'our' rather than 'America's'. Palmerston must be turning in his grave.

I didn't see your answer the other day on what you thought probably happened on 9/11.

I didn't see the question, apologies. I tend toward the theory that the attack was planned and carried out by deep state elements or rogue networks within the US. Not that the planes or the hijackers did not exist, just that they were part of a far wider plan.

What sort of deep state elements/rogue networks?

Basically: it's the old conspiracy theory, damn American CIA causing trouble, playing the Great Game, etc. etc. etc.

God forbid there might be people who weren't actually enjoying living under a homicidal dictator.

Speedy said:

antifrank said:

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

Pulpstar said:

SandyRentool said:

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

May2015 ‏@May2015NS

... For the Ashcroft poll watcher in you.. we've brought together & mapped all 88: http://may2015.com/ashcroft

Is that every single english marginal ?

Not until he polls Sheffield Hallam!

I'll admit I've gone from £40 to win £10 on Clegg there to £10 to win £3.

I think he holds, but I have no confidence backing him whatsoever.

Do not talk about Sheffield Hallam while TSE is lurking around.

Perhaps I should break the habit of a lifetime and go and campaign for Labour there. Seeing Clegg lose his seat on General Election night would be absolutely hilarious.

Not for those of us who have invested large sums on a Lib Dem hold in Sheffield Hallam it wouldn't be.

Well you had 4 years time to liquidate your investment in Sheffield Hallam LD hold.

I've had four years of people that Nick Clegg would stand down as leader of the Lib Dems before the next election, and I'm looking forward to collecting handy winnings on that. I will let my bets on Sheffield Hallam ride. I expect Mr Clegg will win in some comfort.

Socrates said:

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

Good-government-minded people certainly did not try to split it up and all opposed that bonkers proposal. The man behind it was not a good-governance guy but a wealthy venture capitalist that wanted to gerrymander the state so that the wealthy coastal areas could have an electoral majority to support his ideological goals (such as cutting taxes for the rich).

Are you sure about this? I know who Tim Draper is but it's not obvious the state of Silicon Valley would be right-wing... Maybe they'd close all the schools and do everything online though. To the extent that there's a gerrymandering angle I think it's more that you can elect Republicans in the interior?

I oversimplified things. There were three effects:

- To split out the low-income Hispanics among Republican dominated states to weaken their electoral influence
- To split off the high income Democrats along the coast from their low income partisans, so that the pro-Silicon valley low-tax Democrats come to the fore
- To have more states for low population Republican areas so the GOP get more Senators

Or to:

(A) Ameliorate the situation where 45% of the state votes GOP but is permanently represented by 2 Democrat Senators

(B) Mitigate the outrageous gerrymandering that pairs the very different communities of Downtown LA (compton) with Orange County to maximise the number of Democrat Congressmen

(C) to spot those idiots in Sacromento wasting SoCal's money on bullsh1t schemes like the Railway to Nowhere

NickPalmer said:

Incidentally, this poll again shows slightly higher swings on average than in the country as a whole - roughly equivalent to a Labour lead of 3 nationally. I'd hesitate to draw many conclusions, except that we're not seeing a net incumbency bonus.

3% is exactly the national lead that Lord Ashcroft was showing at the midpoint of the constituency polling (16th Oct). So bang in line, and no incumbency effect apparent.

RodCrosby said:

Tissue_Price said:

May2015 ‏@May2015NS

... For the Ashcroft poll watcher in you.. we've brought together & mapped all 88: http://may2015.com/ashcroft

Not sure this is at all meaningful. When Ashcroft started polling the Labour national poll lead was a damn sight bigger than it is now.

Surely some sort of adjustment ought to be made for that?

Yes, the data isn't adjusted at all. I just thought it was a helpful guide to show which seats had been polled.