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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds smaller CON to LA
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds smaller CON to LAB swings and the Tories hanging on to 3 seats
@LordAshcroft marginals: LAB would GAIN
Bury N
Cannock C
Chester
Croydon C
Erewash
Keighley
Northampton N
Keighley
Wirral W
Worcester
0
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Get on UKIP in Cannock Chase - 12s with PP, 8s with Lads.
http://order-order.com/2014/10/10/ashcroft-polls-margin-of-error-was-17/
With the inevitable Kipper fade they are in pole position to be largest party.
A whole stack of these marginals are now showing really small gaps.
London again right near the top of the swingometer,
As per his previous polling
(a) Great for constituency betting
(b) Reinforcing the lack of an incumbency effect at this stage
but (c) Not telling us anything new at the national level
The fieldwork was 2nd of October to 27th of October.
UKIP @ 40/1 PP
UKIP @ 80/1 PP
Swing May 2014 = 6.5
Swing Sept 2014 = 5.0
Swing Oct 2014 = 4.5
Looks like a c.2% swing to Labour May 2015.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11210073/David-Cameron-wont-rule-out-Ukip-deal-in-hung-Parliament.html
Max stake £0.39 but at least it covers most of my Tory stake...
£0.78 on Kingswood.
The origins of the Tories lie in opposing the Whig's exclusion bill, aimed at disinheriting James Duke of York.
The Labour Party was formed as a movement to represent the newly enfranchised urban proletariat -a rejection of the centrist Liberal Party that aimed to represent this constituency.
The Scottish National Party was founded in opposition to the UK -its leader at the time was jailed for campaigning against conscription during World War II.
The SDP was founded to create a new centrist political force in the UK. We all know how that went.
Every successful political movement starts because it is against something. Otherwise what point would their be in a new political movement? It's not rocket science.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/11207176/Wife-of-former-ambassador-Sir-Christopher-calls-top-restaurant-pretentious-on-TripAdvisor.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11209248/EU-auditors-refuse-to-sign-off-more-than-100billion-of-its-own-spending.html
Anyway, California's 38 million population works just fine as a governing unit.
The large amount of churn we are seeing in the data tables give plenty of opportunity for individual seats to do unexpected things.
W T F ?
I worked in a provincial country hotel in another life where our chef put together a similar 'create your own' tasting menu. This was some years ago so it's hardly a new thing. I agree with what she writes -just a silly way to try to make money out of people by worrying them they won't have enough to eat.
But they really think they are being clever
Unfortunately for me, some of the bookies know that I'm privy to a lot of (but not all) embargoed polling, even though I don't bet on it until it becomes public, some of them have utterly restricted me to less than tenner or fiver online.
RE: Where Salmond might stand
One of SLab's problems is that it is seen as a Glasgow clique, as in, if you aren't a Glasgow MP/MSP then you were part of the Glasgow University Labour society. With Sturgeon holding a Glasgow seat it's good optics for Salmond to hold a rural seat instead.
27% of 2010 Lib Dem voters in my poll had switched to LAB. 24% to CON or UKIP. 20% would vote LD again. http://bit.ly/17zmETt
And California's governance doesn't work fine at all, it works atrociously, which is why good-government-minded people are trying to split it up.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/cannock-chase/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today
And if England is too big for the UK as one of four devolved lands, then so be it. I'd sooner sacrifice the UK than England.
34% of UKIP voters want to see LAB in govt. 78% of switchers from CON to UKIP want Tories in govt, 63% with an overall majority!
200/1 would be an incredible PB tip.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Daily_Telegraph#Founding_and_early_history_.281855.E2.80.931900.29
But it is cheap content that people will click on. I believe their new editor is very into such things.
Knowing there's a poll due out in a few hours, and seeing people taking advantage of it on betfair and elsewhere, and you can't do eff all and join in
We may usually think of a tactical vote being for a minor party, but there's no reason why it shouldn't be for a major party instead.
Someone who bemoans the lack of political spread markets, despite his tendency to pick off out of date prices after a poll was announced being the main reason they are no longer offered
But the value of constituency polling is that we now know this, rather than guessing. I'll post some more analysis later.
That, however, is almost impossible to see happening. So, balanced and fair devolution is necessary, which means an English Parliament.
The local "Kent Online" news station should NOT get the polls before anyone else.
Time to bring in the same rules that govern price sensitive data wrt listed companies for all BPC polls.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/04/libyan-troops-go-wild-in-england.html
(a) the Tories don't benefit from it [maybe they don't put the same effort in?]
(b) it doesn't show up until the campaign
And I don't agree with your view about the Labour party foundation. I think that was much more pro-workers movement: positively campaigning for them rather than just a protest against. It was also a broad church movement, positively pulling-in others.
I'm not sure your other arguments really stand up to much scrutiny either, at least not compared to UKIP.
You have rounded off with a non sequitur. Of course not all political movements need be founded because they are against something. They can be founded because they are 'for' things: positively setting new agendas, representing new groups etc.
However, the above might be the sort of hair-splitting to share over a pint. My point is that UKIP come across to me as considerably malcontented. They seem so, well, to put in one word … unhappy. Sure, catch Farage with a fag and a pint (most of the time) and he laughs a lot for camera but the rhetoric is all so whining and whinging. Look at the kippers on here, like Socrates, MikeK, Kent and Tyndall: constant moan bloody moan. Someone needs to tell them to lighten up ffs.
The Power of PB has brought the UKIP Cannock Chase price in to 6s (PP) and 4s (Lads). That still looks generous to me. They are only 2 points behind Labour and on Q1 of the two-part questionnaire they were actually ahead. Even so they look best placed to benefit from any squeeze on either of the two other main Parties.
I'd make them 7/4 at most.
It's Comres and ICM that are implying something bigger. Ashcroft nationals smaller.
Never believed in incumbency.
When I guest edit PB the most stressful time for me is when I have an embargoed poll, and am scared of accidentally publishing it before the embargo ends.
The thing is, I'm fairly certain that during the Indyref, some private polling conducted on behalf of financial institutions, and they bet on that polling that was never made public.
March 28
I tried to make a model last year of where I thought UKIP may spring a surprise... Just going off 2010 numbers, with no knowledge of the areas
Cannock Chase at 150s would be worth a poke at a big price, Camborne and Redruth was quite a way down the list but was a possible. SJ only 7/1 though"
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/04/uk-training-libyan-soldiers-hold-recruits-sent-home
Two of the Libyan soldiers have been charged with raping a man in Cambridge. Moktar Ali Saad Mahmoud, 33, and Ibrahim Abogutila, 22, are due to appear before Cambridge magistrates court on Tuesday accused of carrying out the attack on Sunday 26 October.
Last week, Libyan cadets Ibrahim Naji el Maarfi, 20, and Mohammed Abdalsalam, 27, appeared before the same court to admit two counts of sexual assault. They are also due to be sentenced on Tuesday.
El Maarfi faces two counts of sexual assault and one count of exposure. Abdalsalam faces charges includingsexual assault.
Khaled el Azibi, 18, has also been charged with three counts of sexual assault, but has yet to enter a plea.
Of course, it remains possible for one political philosophy to take root in part of the UK and cause geographical strains. Imagine if the Dog-Lover's Party took over the UK Government while being concentrated in South England. But that isn't in itself a product of the size or monolithic nature of the English polity.
Agree that it is frustrating and one of the risks of political betting.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2820269/Government-ends-training-Libyan-soldiers-UK-five-face-court-today-charged-sex-attacks-men-women.html
Or a lengthy item on yesterday's Channel 4 News.
You're losing it, mate.
And California is governed very well. It has gone from a huge budget deficit to a budget surplus in just five years: http://www.nationalmemo.com/the-5-best-ideas-from-californias-progressive-resurgence/
Good-government-minded people certainly did not try to split it up and all opposed that bonkers proposal. The man behind it was not a good-governance guy but a wealthy venture capitalist that wanted to gerrymander the state so that the wealthy coastal areas could have an electoral majority to support his ideological goals (such as cutting taxes for the rich). The Californian people sensibly rejected the idea by a massive margin, because they considered themselves Californian together, and didn't want to be divided up.
It's actually a very good analogy to splitting England into regions, that are designed to electorally gerrymander the electorate to allow as much big state politics as possible, and is opposed by the UK public. Thanks for bringing it up.
I think your comments on Ukip are allowable as they are clearly vulgar abuse.
I'm not a lawyer, but is vulgar abuse not defamatory because it's clearly meant to rile or annoy and not to be taken seriously.
Audrey, by comparison, seems genuinely annoyed at Ukip. I can't see why?
Ukip are collecting support from people who see disadvantages to the European Grand Plan, no matter what the temporary financial benefits. It's a bit like a large company saying that because we're making money, and the CEO has received a large pay rise, the workers on the shop floor (with no pay rise or even a drop in pay) should rejoice.
A reasonable reaction would be two fingers, surely?
I may not totally agree, but I can understand the point.
The most potent weapon in politics - it's not fair.
Lab 35 UKIP 33.3% Con 23.8%
Lord Ashcroft:
Lab 32 UKIP 30
Refusal of an audit certificate would be disastrous for most companies but evidently different rules apply to the EU. I'm wondering just how serious the qualification is? If it was a one-off, long ago, and subsequent accounts have only been qualified because the prior error has not been corrected, it's not great but it does put it into some sort of perspective.
Otoh, if the EU accounting is a perennial shambles there really is a case for closing the whole joint down.
Might do it myself tbh - could be a good use of the weekend
That's why it's also good optics for him to stand in a place that said 'No'.
I'm interested to see what happens in places like the South of Scotland that went 30/70 in favour of No. The SNP polled an enormous 12% in Dumfries and Galloway, 9% in the Borders and 10% in Dumfriesshire. some people are blithely assuming Yes=SNP and No=NotSNP. If so then the SNP are going to see some dramatic vote share gains in the South of Scotland.
Indeed I rarely see any comment from you on here that isn't fanatically in support of your party and as with other Tories I see a distinct lack of principles in your postings.
At least some of us in UKIP are happy to criticise the party we lend our votes to. You on the other hand as a typical Tory Europhile do nothing but moan about others.
UKIP are at least coming up with constructive answers to the issues of the day unlike your lot who either pretend there is nothing wrong or go for trite unsustainable answers just to try and fool the voters who you have nothing but scorn for.
The Tories on here are most definitely the angry party - although perhaps the sulky party would be a more accurate description at the moment.
The UK has the National Audit Office, whose remit is narrower, and which does not tend (as far I'm aware) to use external professional services firms.
The EU Court of Auditors report is here -http://www.eca.europa.eu/Lists/ECADocuments/AB_2013/AB_2013_EN.pdf - and is well worth reading. They state that the error rate for payments is 4.7%; that is 4.7% (€7.4bn) of money that was paid out by the EU was not paid out according to proper policy - although this does not mean all of of this is fraudulent.
As for soldiers on the rampage, it's what some of them do. The British have got up to far worse in Cyprus, and many other garrisons.
Probably the statistic of the evening for them is this:
Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-Kentucky) in one of the most expensive senate contests of the year, ran just 2% points better than Travis Childers did for the Democrats in Mississippi who received bugger all cash from the Dems.
I guess it proves that money can't change demographics.
http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/
OK, maybe not very likely then
You could still get 6/1 this week on them finishing in the top 4.
(p.s. I'm a Spurs supporter.)
I am sure OGH and TSE cant wait to lavish praise on me for it should it cop!!
Mind you OGH thinks a 40/1 shot that is now 7/2 (Camborne and Redruth a 20% difference) is a better tip than a 7/1 shot now 4/7 (Boston 51%) or a 16/1 that's now 4/5 (Thurrock 49%), so I am not holding my breath
I know we have some legal people on here (when they're not comparing shoe styles and holiday homes), so what are the implications for abortion, if any?
If harming the embryo/foetus by drinking too much is actionable, yet aborting the foetus isn't, then where do we draw a line?
And that's without all the other possibler risky activities.
I made a fair amount of money trading those results