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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds smaller CON to LA

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited November 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds smaller CON to LAB swings and the Tories hanging on to 3 seats

@LordAshcroft marginals: LAB would GAIN
Bury N
Cannock C
Chester
Croydon C
Erewash
Keighley
Northampton N
Keighley
Wirral W
Worcester

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    edited November 2014
    First!

    Get on UKIP in Cannock Chase - 12s with PP, 8s with Lads.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Only a slightly smaller swing than the last marginals poll.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited November 2014
    Lord Ashcroft was 17% out on Labour share at Middleton and Heywood.

    http://order-order.com/2014/10/10/ashcroft-polls-margin-of-error-was-17/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    These look like good numbers for DC at this stage.

    With the inevitable Kipper fade they are in pole position to be largest party.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    TGOHF said:

    These look like good numbers for DC at this stage.

    With the inevitable Kipper fade they are in pole position to be largest party.

    The Kipper fade is not inevitable. It will entirely depend on the Tories having a strong stand on the EU and immigration. If Cameron backs down on free movement, or on the EU shakedown, there won't be one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    First!

    Get on UKIP in Cannock Chase - 12s with PP, 8s with Lads.

    £3.12 on with Paddy - max bet.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    4.5% swing is broadly in line with YG nationals.

    A whole stack of these marginals are now showing really small gaps.

    London again right near the top of the swingometer,

  • UKIP gain Cannock Chase looks a steal at 12/1
  • A 4.5% swing is, perhaps not coincidentally, exactly the swing that Lord Ashcroft was finding nationally at the time (midpoint of all this fieldwork is 16-Oct, his poll ending 19-Oct had a 3% Lab lead).

    As per his previous polling

    (a) Great for constituency betting

    (b) Reinforcing the lack of an incumbency effect at this stage

    but (c) Not telling us anything new at the national level
  • Booo, they've pulled Loughborough markets
  • This fits in with the national trend does it not.

    The fieldwork was 2nd of October to 27th of October.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Blackpool North

    UKIP @ 40/1 PP
  • Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Kingswood

    UKIP @ 80/1 PP
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Swing Sept 2013 = 8.5
    Swing May 2014 = 6.5
    Swing Sept 2014 = 5.0
    Swing Oct 2014 = 4.5

    Looks like a c.2% swing to Labour May 2015.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Blackpool North & Cleveleys @ 11-10 with paddy.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    chestnut said:

    Swing Sept 2013 = 8.5
    Swing May 2014 = 6.5
    Swing Sept 2014 = 5.0
    Swing Oct 2014 = 4.5

    Looks like a c.2% swing to Labour May 2015.

    Depends if the swing change gradient in 6 weeks of GE campaigning is comparable with 6 normal weeks. I doubt it.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited November 2014
    Pong said:

    Kingswood

    UKIP @ 80/1 PP

    I'm on

    Max stake £0.39 but at least it covers most of my Tory stake...

    £0.78 on Kingswood.
  • isam said:

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
    People who solely bet after polls tend to get cut by the bookies. Unsurprisingly.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    FPT:



    It was about UKIP demographics, a comparison with the Tea Party, and whether a party founded essentially 'against' something can ever win enough support to be other than a protest group. Put in a more positive way, if UKIP did have pretensions to power they would need to cross the rubicon into proper positive policies across the spectrum. The problem with the latter is that it's called the centre ground, and I cannot see UKIP straddling it.

    The origins of the Whigs (later the Liberal party) lay in its opposition to absolute monarchy, and in particular its opposition to Catholic Monarchs.

    The origins of the Tories lie in opposing the Whig's exclusion bill, aimed at disinheriting James Duke of York.

    The Labour Party was formed as a movement to represent the newly enfranchised urban proletariat -a rejection of the centrist Liberal Party that aimed to represent this constituency.

    The Scottish National Party was founded in opposition to the UK -its leader at the time was jailed for campaigning against conscription during World War II.

    The SDP was founded to create a new centrist political force in the UK. We all know how that went.

    Every successful political movement starts because it is against something. Otherwise what point would their be in a new political movement? It's not rocket science.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    OT FPT: Can anyone explain why this is worth an article? I know views on what's newsworthy or interesting vary hugely, but I cannot believe anyone anywhere would find this worth reading. Basically it's "Wife of someone who was once semi-famous posts restaurant review on Trip Advisor" and that's it. Weird.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/11207176/Wife-of-former-ambassador-Sir-Christopher-calls-top-restaurant-pretentious-on-TripAdvisor.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    isam said:

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
    People who solely bet after polls tend to get cut by the bookies. Unsurprisingly.
    I'm cut to high heaven with Paddy already ^_~
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    £109 billion out of a total of £117 billion spent by the EU in 2013 was "affected by material error”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11209248/EU-auditors-refuse-to-sign-off-more-than-100billion-of-its-own-spending.html
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Mr. Socrates, quite.

    It's perverse and utterly inconsistent to say:
    Welsh devolution = super
    Scottish devolution = super
    English devolution = doubleplusungood

    If a Parliament is good enough for Scotland, it is good enough for England.

    That depends why you think devolved parliaments are a good idea for Scotland and Wales. If you think they're good because they're countries (or nations or whatever they are, can't remember, but it involves flags and rugby teams and things) then that would apply to England as well. But if you think they're good because they're reasonably-sized regions, that doesn't apply to England, because it's much too big as a proportion of the UK.
    If you think local assemblies for Wales and Northern Ireland are good because they're the right population size, at 3.1 million and 1.8 million respectively, then you would support carving Scotland into two, considering it has a relatively whopping 5.3 million. I've yet to meet someone that supports this, suggesting that no-one actually believes the population size argument. They actually just support cutting England up because they don't like the fact it's right-leaning, and grab for any argument they can to avoid admitting this. Witness Jonathan claiming that it would be a huge expansion of the state.
    1.8 million to 5.3 million seems like quite a reasonable range for a regional tier. NI seems a bit on the small side but that's hard to fix given the reluctance of other parts of Ireland to rejoin the UK. Meanwhile a region of 53 million in a country of 63 million is obviously bonkers.

    Obviously it makes a lot more sense if the question you're answering isn't "what would be a rational system of government?" but "how can we all rise and become nations again?".
    England is not a region, but a nation.

    Anyway, California's 38 million population works just fine as a governing unit.
  • In Kingswood the Conservatives gain more from the Lib Dems than Labour (net 9 voters, compared to net 8 for Labour).

    The large amount of churn we are seeing in the data tables give plenty of opportunity for individual seats to do unexpected things.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Socrates said:

    £109 billion out of a total of £117 billion spent by the EU in 2013 was "affected by material error”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11209248/EU-auditors-refuse-to-sign-off-more-than-100billion-of-its-own-spending.html

    "It means that the Brussels accounts have not been given the all clear for 19 years running. "

    W T F ?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    Anorak said:

    OT FPT: Can anyone explain why this is worth an article? I know views on what's newsworthy or interesting vary hugely, but I cannot believe anyone anywhere would find this worth reading. Basically it's "Wife of someone who was once semi-famous posts restaurant review on Trip Advisor" and that's it. Weird.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/11207176/Wife-of-former-ambassador-Sir-Christopher-calls-top-restaurant-pretentious-on-TripAdvisor.html

    You read it, you shared it, I clicked on it and read it. There's your answer.

    I worked in a provincial country hotel in another life where our chef put together a similar 'create your own' tasting menu. This was some years ago so it's hardly a new thing. I agree with what she writes -just a silly way to try to make money out of people by worrying them they won't have enough to eat.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014

    isam said:

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
    People who solely bet after polls tend to get cut by the bookies. Unsurprisingly.
    Yes... I used to work for a firm where people who we all know from this site were branded utter scum for doing just that

    But they really think they are being clever
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited November 2014

    isam said:

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
    People who solely bet after polls tend to get cut by the bookies. Unsurprisingly.
    Fortunately I do bet before polls come out.

    Unfortunately for me, some of the bookies know that I'm privy to a lot of (but not all) embargoed polling, even though I don't bet on it until it becomes public, some of them have utterly restricted me to less than tenner or fiver online.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited November 2014
    The Lib Dems only lose one deposit out of the twelve with this set of polls. Perhaps the lost deposit bet for the Lib Dems is not so great?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    From the previous thread

    RE: Where Salmond might stand

    One of SLab's problems is that it is seen as a Glasgow clique, as in, if you aren't a Glasgow MP/MSP then you were part of the Glasgow University Labour society. With Sturgeon holding a Glasgow seat it's good optics for Salmond to hold a rural seat instead.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    chestnut said:
    He can't rule it out can he? He's not in a strong enough position within his own party.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Anorak said:

    Socrates said:

    £109 billion out of a total of £117 billion spent by the EU in 2013 was "affected by material error”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11209248/EU-auditors-refuse-to-sign-off-more-than-100billion-of-its-own-spending.html

    "It means that the Brussels accounts have not been given the all clear for 19 years running. "

    W T F ?
    EU spending is rightly held to much higher standard than every other kind of reporting entity including private companies.
  • Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

    27% of 2010 Lib Dem voters in my poll had switched to LAB. 24% to CON or UKIP. 20% would vote LD again. http://bit.ly/17zmETt
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2014

    Anorak said:

    OT FPT: Can anyone explain why this is worth an article? I know views on what's newsworthy or interesting vary hugely, but I cannot believe anyone anywhere would find this worth reading. Basically it's "Wife of someone who was once semi-famous posts restaurant review on Trip Advisor" and that's it. Weird.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/11207176/Wife-of-former-ambassador-Sir-Christopher-calls-top-restaurant-pretentious-on-TripAdvisor.html

    You read it, you shared it, I clicked on it and read it. There's your answer.

    I worked in a provincial country hotel in another life where our chef put together a similar 'create your own' tasting menu. This was some years ago so it's hardly a new thing. I agree with what she writes -just a silly way to try to make money out of people by worrying them they won't have enough to eat.
    When a media outlet is reduced to writing articles which are noteworthy for their banality alone, they should be taking out the back and shot. I mean, if it was in the Carlisle Gazette I could sort of understand, but it's a major national paper, FFS!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
    People who solely bet after polls tend to get cut by the bookies. Unsurprisingly.
    Yes... I used to work for a firm where people who we all know from this site were branded utter scum for doing just that

    But they really think they are being clever
    Am I on the list ^^; ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited November 2014
    Socrates said:


    England is not a region, but a nation.

    That's exactly my point. That's why it's different to Scotland/Wales/NI, which are regions, although they may also be nations.
    Socrates said:


    Anyway, California's 38 million population works just fine as a governing unit.

    That's as a subdivision of a country of 319 million. As a subdivision of a country of 43 million it would obviously be nuts.

    And California's governance doesn't work fine at all, it works atrociously, which is why good-government-minded people are trying to split it up.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014
    Cannock Chase was available at 200/1 when I suggested it was a good UKIP chance in May 2013

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/cannock-chase/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today
  • In Kingswood the Conservatives gain more from the Lib Dems than Labour (net 9 voters, compared to net 8 for Labour).

    The large amount of churn we are seeing in the data tables give plenty of opportunity for individual seats to do unexpected things.

    Are this was with the first question, not the second.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    isam said:

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
    People who solely bet after polls tend to get cut by the bookies. Unsurprisingly.
    Fortunately I do bet before polls come out.

    Unfortunately for me, some of the bookies know that I'm privy to a lot of (but not all) embargoed polling, even though I don't bet on it until it becomes public, some of them have utterly restricted me to less than tenner or fiver online.

    You may not, but I think other people probably do. TIme for opinion polls to be treated the same way as "Price sensitive information" ?
  • Mr. Tokyo, equality for England is necessary as a matter of democratic justice. Tearing England into regions for the party political convenience of Westminster types is not what the people want.

    And if England is too big for the UK as one of four devolved lands, then so be it. I'd sooner sacrifice the UK than England.
  • On topic: So are the swings in the marginals approximating to UNS yet?
  • Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

    34% of UKIP voters want to see LAB in govt. 78% of switchers from CON to UKIP want Tories in govt, 63% with an overall majority!
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    isam said:

    Cannock Chase was available at 200/1 when I suggested it was a good UKIP chance in May 2013

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/cannock-chase/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today

    Indeed, I hope you got on.

    200/1 would be an incredible PB tip.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    OT FPT: Can anyone explain why this is worth an article? I know views on what's newsworthy or interesting vary hugely, but I cannot believe anyone anywhere would find this worth reading. Basically it's "Wife of someone who was once semi-famous posts restaurant review on Trip Advisor" and that's it. Weird.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/11207176/Wife-of-former-ambassador-Sir-Christopher-calls-top-restaurant-pretentious-on-TripAdvisor.html

    You read it, you shared it, I clicked on it and read it. There's your answer.

    I worked in a provincial country hotel in another life where our chef put together a similar 'create your own' tasting menu. This was some years ago so it's hardly a new thing. I agree with what she writes -just a silly way to try to make money out of people by worrying them they won't have enough to eat.
    When a media outlet is reduced to writing articles which are noteworthy for their banality alone, they should be taking out the back and shot. I mean, if it was in the Carlisle Gazette I could sort of understand, but it's a major national paper, FFS!
    I absolutely agree. It's hardly worthy of the paper that once interviewed the Kaiser, was written about by Jules Verne, or had its crossword used as a recruitment test for codebreaking in Bletchley Park! (Addicted to wikipedia today)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Daily_Telegraph#Founding_and_early_history_.281855.E2.80.931900.29

    But it is cheap content that people will click on. I believe their new editor is very into such things.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited November 2014
    Pulpstar said:


    isam said:

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
    People who solely bet after polls tend to get cut by the bookies. Unsurprisingly.
    Fortunately I do bet before polls come out.

    Unfortunately for me, some of the bookies know that I'm privy to a lot of (but not all) embargoed polling, even though I don't bet on it until it becomes public, some of them have utterly restricted me to less than tenner or fiver online.

    You may not, but I think other people probably do. TIme for opinion polls to be treated the same way as "Price sensitive information" ?
    Indeed, it is so frustrating.

    Knowing there's a poll due out in a few hours, and seeing people taking advantage of it on betfair and elsewhere, and you can't do eff all and join in
  • Looking at these seats and the relative size of the LD/UKIP vote in them, surely the Tories should be able to pull off a tactical squeeze in nearly all of them?

    We may usually think of a tactical vote being for a minor party, but there's no reason why it shouldn't be for a major party instead.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
    People who solely bet after polls tend to get cut by the bookies. Unsurprisingly.
    Yes... I used to work for a firm where people who we all know from this site were branded utter scum for doing just that

    But they really think they are being clever
    Am I on the list ^^; ?
    I only know one name that is definitely on there!

    Someone who bemoans the lack of political spread markets, despite his tendency to pick off out of date prices after a poll was announced being the main reason they are no longer offered
  • BenM said:

    Anorak said:

    Socrates said:

    £109 billion out of a total of £117 billion spent by the EU in 2013 was "affected by material error”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11209248/EU-auditors-refuse-to-sign-off-more-than-100billion-of-its-own-spending.html

    "It means that the Brussels accounts have not been given the all clear for 19 years running. "

    W T F ?
    EU spending is rightly held to much higher standard than every other kind of reporting entity including private companies.
    No it isn't. They use exactly the same standards as other governments around Europe including the UK.
  • Mr. Tokyo, equality for England is necessary as a matter of democratic justice. Tearing England into regions for the party political convenience of Westminster types is not what the people want.

    And if England is too big for the UK as one of four devolved lands, then so be it. I'd sooner sacrifice the UK than England.

    That's what I'm getting at - the argument for doing it is about it being a nation, not about it being a region. That's a fair enough argument to make, but people who support devolution for Scotland/Wales/NI because they want rational decentralization of government aren't being inconsistent in supporting the one but not the other.
  • Ashcroft poll: My back-of-a-post-us-midterms-coffee-cup calculations show a 4.4% swing in these seats and 4.4% in his national polls in Oct.

    But the value of constituency polling is that we now know this, rather than guessing. I'll post some more analysis later.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    BenM said:

    Anorak said:

    Socrates said:

    £109 billion out of a total of £117 billion spent by the EU in 2013 was "affected by material error”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11209248/EU-auditors-refuse-to-sign-off-more-than-100billion-of-its-own-spending.html

    "It means that the Brussels accounts have not been given the all clear for 19 years running. "

    W T F ?
    EU spending is rightly held to much higher standard than every other kind of reporting entity including private companies.
    I'd be interested in seeing some verification of this.
  • Mr. Tokyo, I was never in favour of Scottish/Welsh devolution (NI's different for historical reasons). A Parliament for England is needed as a matter of accountability and democratic equality. I'd just as soon axe Scottish and Welsh devolution.

    That, however, is almost impossible to see happening. So, balanced and fair devolution is necessary, which means an English Parliament.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:


    isam said:

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
    People who solely bet after polls tend to get cut by the bookies. Unsurprisingly.
    Fortunately I do bet before polls come out.

    Unfortunately for me, some of the bookies know that I'm privy to a lot of (but not all) embargoed polling, even though I don't bet on it until it becomes public, some of them have utterly restricted me to less than tenner or fiver online.

    You may not, but I think other people probably do. TIme for opinion polls to be treated the same way as "Price sensitive information" ?
    Indeed, it is so frustrating.

    Knowing there's a poll due out in a few hours, and seeing people taking advantage of it on betfair and elsewhere, and you can't do eff all and join in
    I'd argue the monetary element of an opinion poll far outweighs any journalistic value, they can be reported on and whatnot after they're out - Some people were clearly in possession of, and betting on the latest R&S poll before it was generally available information.

    The local "Kent Online" news station should NOT get the polls before anyone else.

    Time to bring in the same rules that govern price sensitive data wrt listed companies for all BPC polls.
  • Alistair said:

    it's good optics for Salmond to hold a rural seat instead.

    Did any rural seats vote 'Yes'?

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    This is a devastating account that was white-washed by the UK media:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/04/libyan-troops-go-wild-in-england.html
  • On topic: So are the swings in the marginals approximating to UNS yet?

    Yes. The lack of incumbency is the most interesting feature of Lord Ashcroft's polls - for which there are two competing theories:

    (a) the Tories don't benefit from it [maybe they don't put the same effort in?]
    (b) it doesn't show up until the campaign
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited November 2014

    FPT:



    It was about UKIP demographics, a comparison with the Tea Party, and whether a party founded essentially 'against' something can ever win enough support to be other than a protest group. Put in a more positive way, if UKIP did have pretensions to power they would need to cross the rubicon into proper positive policies across the spectrum. The problem with the latter is that it's called the centre ground, and I cannot see UKIP straddling it.


    The Labour Party was formed as a movement to represent the newly enfranchised urban proletariat -a rejection of the centrist Liberal Party that aimed to represent this constituency.
    ...

    The SDP was founded to create a new centrist political force in the UK. We all know how that went.

    Every successful political movement starts because it is against something. Otherwise what point would their be in a new political movement? It's not rocket science.
    I think the SDP was actually a protest party: they were reacting against the Labour left-lurch. Your avatar would suggest you don't remember it, but I and others on here certainly will and the Gang of Four were standing up in protest against the direction the Labour party was heading.

    And I don't agree with your view about the Labour party foundation. I think that was much more pro-workers movement: positively campaigning for them rather than just a protest against. It was also a broad church movement, positively pulling-in others.

    I'm not sure your other arguments really stand up to much scrutiny either, at least not compared to UKIP.

    You have rounded off with a non sequitur. Of course not all political movements need be founded because they are against something. They can be founded because they are 'for' things: positively setting new agendas, representing new groups etc.

    However, the above might be the sort of hair-splitting to share over a pint. My point is that UKIP come across to me as considerably malcontented. They seem so, well, to put in one word … unhappy. Sure, catch Farage with a fag and a pint (most of the time) and he laughs a lot for camera but the rhetoric is all so whining and whinging. Look at the kippers on here, like Socrates, MikeK, Kent and Tyndall: constant moan bloody moan. Someone needs to tell them to lighten up ffs.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Socrates said:

    This is a devastating account that was white-washed by the UK media:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/04/libyan-troops-go-wild-in-england.html

    Some serious questions for the MoD and MP to answer - there was supposed to be no unauthorised leaving of the base.
  • Pong said:

    isam said:

    Cannock Chase was available at 200/1 when I suggested it was a good UKIP chance in May 2013

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/cannock-chase/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today

    Indeed, I hope you got on.

    200/1 would be an incredible PB tip.
    That's an astonishing call, Isam, and if it comes in would set a new PB record, eclipsing OGH's 100/1 Santorum shot.

    The Power of PB has brought the UKIP Cannock Chase price in to 6s (PP) and 4s (Lads). That still looks generous to me. They are only 2 points behind Labour and on Q1 of the two-part questionnaire they were actually ahead. Even so they look best placed to benefit from any squeeze on either of the two other main Parties.

    I'd make them 7/4 at most.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The swing in the marginals appears to be broadly in line with national numbers being given by YG and Populus.

    It's Comres and ICM that are implying something bigger. Ashcroft nationals smaller.





  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    On topic: So are the swings in the marginals approximating to UNS yet?

    Yes. The lack of incumbency is the most interesting feature of Lord Ashcroft's polls - for which there are two competing theories:

    (a) the Tories don't benefit from it [maybe they don't put the same effort in?]
    (b) it doesn't show up until the campaign
    Or that it is a reflection of electoral fraud being perpetrated.

    Never believed in incumbency.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:


    isam said:

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
    People who solely bet after polls tend to get cut by the bookies. Unsurprisingly.
    Fortunately I do bet before polls come out.

    Unfortunately for me, some of the bookies know that I'm privy to a lot of (but not all) embargoed polling, even though I don't bet on it until it becomes public, some of them have utterly restricted me to less than tenner or fiver online.

    You may not, but I think other people probably do. TIme for opinion polls to be treated the same way as "Price sensitive information" ?
    Indeed, it is so frustrating.

    Knowing there's a poll due out in a few hours, and seeing people taking advantage of it on betfair and elsewhere, and you can't do eff all and join in
    I'd argue the monetary element of an opinion poll far outweighs any journalistic value, they can be reported on and whatnot after they're out - Some people were clearly in possession of, and betting on the latest R&S poll before it was generally available information.

    The local "Kent Online" news station should NOT get the polls before anyone else.

    Time to bring in the same rules that govern price sensitive data wrt listed companies for all BPC polls.
    You'd be surprised by how many times people accidentally break an embargo.

    When I guest edit PB the most stressful time for me is when I have an embargoed poll, and am scared of accidentally publishing it before the embargo ends.

    The thing is, I'm fairly certain that during the Indyref, some private polling conducted on behalf of financial institutions, and they bet on that polling that was never made public.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014
    "isam • Posts: 9,443
    March 28

    I tried to make a model last year of where I thought UKIP may spring a surprise... Just going off 2010 numbers, with no knowledge of the areas

    Cannock Chase at 150s would be worth a poke at a big price, Camborne and Redruth was quite a way down the list but was a possible. SJ only 7/1 though"
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255

    On topic: So are the swings in the marginals approximating to UNS yet?

    Yes. The lack of incumbency is the most interesting feature of Lord Ashcroft's polls - for which there are two competing theories:

    (a) the Tories don't benefit from it [maybe they don't put the same effort in?]
    (b) it doesn't show up until the campaign
    The candidates are not named in this poll though so an incumbency is difficult to monitor. Would be interesting if the polls asked 3 questions and named the candidate
  • Socrates said:

    This is a devastating account that was white-washed by the UK media:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/04/libyan-troops-go-wild-in-england.html

    Here's the Guardian covering it up yesterday:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/04/uk-training-libyan-soldiers-hold-recruits-sent-home

    Two of the Libyan soldiers have been charged with raping a man in Cambridge. Moktar Ali Saad Mahmoud, 33, and Ibrahim Abogutila, 22, are due to appear before Cambridge magistrates court on Tuesday accused of carrying out the attack on Sunday 26 October.

    Last week, Libyan cadets Ibrahim Naji el Maarfi, 20, and Mohammed Abdalsalam, 27, appeared before the same court to admit two counts of sexual assault. They are also due to be sentenced on Tuesday.

    El Maarfi faces two counts of sexual assault and one count of exposure. Abdalsalam faces charges includingsexual assault.

    Khaled el Azibi, 18, has also been charged with three counts of sexual assault, but has yet to enter a plea.

  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
    People who solely bet after polls tend to get cut by the bookies. Unsurprisingly.
    Yes... I used to work for a firm where people who we all know from this site were branded utter scum for doing just that

    But they really think they are being clever
    Why is betting following the publication of polls a scummy act? A bizarre allegation from the bookmaking fraternity
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Mr. Tokyo, equality for England is necessary as a matter of democratic justice. Tearing England into regions for the party political convenience of Westminster types is not what the people want.

    And if England is too big for the UK as one of four devolved lands, then so be it. I'd sooner sacrifice the UK than England.

    What I don't understand in this debate is that if the Engliish and UK Parliaments and administrations are properly separated, then there should be no problem at all. The voting for the UK Parliament is surely not going to be on a national electoral college basis is it? Just because a party gets say 45% of the vote in England and achieves government, it's not going to select 100% of the MUKPs is it?

    Of course, it remains possible for one political philosophy to take root in part of the UK and cause geographical strains. Imagine if the Dog-Lover's Party took over the UK Government while being concentrated in South England. But that isn't in itself a product of the size or monolithic nature of the English polity.


  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:


    isam said:

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
    People who solely bet after polls tend to get cut by the bookies. Unsurprisingly.
    Fortunately I do bet before polls come out.

    Unfortunately for me, some of the bookies know that I'm privy to a lot of (but not all) embargoed polling, even though I don't bet on it until it becomes public, some of them have utterly restricted me to less than tenner or fiver online.

    You may not, but I think other people probably do. TIme for opinion polls to be treated the same way as "Price sensitive information" ?
    Indeed, it is so frustrating.

    Knowing there's a poll due out in a few hours, and seeing people taking advantage of it on betfair and elsewhere, and you can't do eff all and join in
    I'd argue the monetary element of an opinion poll far outweighs any journalistic value, they can be reported on and whatnot after they're out - Some people were clearly in possession of, and betting on the latest R&S poll before it was generally available information.

    The local "Kent Online" news station should NOT get the polls before anyone else.

    Time to bring in the same rules that govern price sensitive data wrt listed companies for all BPC polls.
    When I get an embargoed copy of a poll I do not bet until it is published.

    Agree that it is frustrating and one of the risks of political betting.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    isam said:

    "isam • Posts: 9,443
    March 28

    I tried to make a model last year of where I thought UKIP may spring a surprise... Just going off 2010 numbers, with no knowledge of the areas

    Cannock Chase at 150s would be worth a poke at a big price, Camborne and Redruth was quite a way down the list but was a possible. SJ only 7/1 though"

    Did you get on :) ?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pong said:

    isam said:

    Cannock Chase was available at 200/1 when I suggested it was a good UKIP chance in May 2013

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/cannock-chase/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today

    Indeed, I hope you got on.

    200/1 would be an incredible PB tip.
    Unfortunately not.. I did tip it at 150/1, I guess the fact that I put it on a list of possibles when it was 200/1 could count as a tip!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Socrates said:

    £109 billion out of a total of £117 billion spent by the EU in 2013 was "affected by material error”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11209248/EU-auditors-refuse-to-sign-off-more-than-100billion-of-its-own-spending.html

    The EU has a higher level of accountancy standards than many of its constituent countries. If the UK had the same rules then it too would be unable to sign off on its unified accounts.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Socrates said:

    This is a devastating account that was white-washed by the UK media:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/04/libyan-troops-go-wild-in-england.html

    You mean like this in today's Daily Mail

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2820269/Government-ends-training-Libyan-soldiers-UK-five-face-court-today-charged-sex-attacks-men-women.html

    Or a lengthy item on yesterday's Channel 4 News.

    You're losing it, mate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:


    isam said:

    Bah, could only get 8/1 with Paddy Power on Cannock Chase

    It helps to get good prices if you think for yourself before polling is announced rather than try to catch a bookie out who hasn't seen it yet
    People who solely bet after polls tend to get cut by the bookies. Unsurprisingly.
    Fortunately I do bet before polls come out.

    Unfortunately for me, some of the bookies know that I'm privy to a lot of (but not all) embargoed polling, even though I don't bet on it until it becomes public, some of them have utterly restricted me to less than tenner or fiver online.

    You may not, but I think other people probably do. TIme for opinion polls to be treated the same way as "Price sensitive information" ?
    Indeed, it is so frustrating.

    Knowing there's a poll due out in a few hours, and seeing people taking advantage of it on betfair and elsewhere, and you can't do eff all and join in
    I'd argue the monetary element of an opinion poll far outweighs any journalistic value, they can be reported on and whatnot after they're out - Some people were clearly in possession of, and betting on the latest R&S poll before it was generally available information.

    The local "Kent Online" news station should NOT get the polls before anyone else.

    Time to bring in the same rules that govern price sensitive data wrt listed companies for all BPC polls.
    You'd be surprised by how many times people accidentally break an embargo.

    When I guest edit PB the most stressful time for me is when I have an embargoed poll, and am scared of accidentally publishing it before the embargo ends.

    The thing is, I'm fairly certain that during the Indyref, some private polling conducted on behalf of financial institutions, and they bet on that polling that was never made public.
    Well there is not alot you can do if the polling is not BPC - but I think BPC pollsters should be under obligations as I have labelled above.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:


    England is not a region, but a nation.

    That's exactly my point. That's why it's different to Scotland/Wales/NI, which are regions, although they may also be nations.
    Socrates said:


    Anyway, California's 38 million population works just fine as a governing unit.

    That's as a subdivision of a country of 319 million. As a subdivision of a country of 43 million it would obviously be nuts.

    And California's governance doesn't work fine at all, it works atrociously, which is why good-government-minded people are trying to split it up.
    The point is that a polity of 38 million people works very effectively, and doesn't need further devolution. The right number of people to cover education policy or healthcare policy with is irrelevant to how many people are covered by defence or foreign affairs.

    And California is governed very well. It has gone from a huge budget deficit to a budget surplus in just five years: http://www.nationalmemo.com/the-5-best-ideas-from-californias-progressive-resurgence/

    Good-government-minded people certainly did not try to split it up and all opposed that bonkers proposal. The man behind it was not a good-governance guy but a wealthy venture capitalist that wanted to gerrymander the state so that the wealthy coastal areas could have an electoral majority to support his ideological goals (such as cutting taxes for the rich). The Californian people sensibly rejected the idea by a massive margin, because they considered themselves Californian together, and didn't want to be divided up.

    It's actually a very good analogy to splitting England into regions, that are designed to electorally gerrymander the electorate to allow as much big state politics as possible, and is opposed by the UK public. Thanks for bringing it up.
  • Pong said:

    isam said:

    Cannock Chase was available at 200/1 when I suggested it was a good UKIP chance in May 2013

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/cannock-chase/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today

    Indeed, I hope you got on.

    200/1 would be an incredible PB tip.
    That's an astonishing call, Isam, and if it comes in would set a new PB record, eclipsing OGH's 100/1 Santorum shot.

    The Power of PB has brought the UKIP Cannock Chase price in to 6s (PP) and 4s (Lads). That still looks generous to me. They are only 2 points behind Labour and on Q1 of the two-part questionnaire they were actually ahead. Even so they look best placed to benefit from any squeeze on either of the two other main Parties.

    I'd make them 7/4 at most.
    On the other hand, the situation is sui generis - the Tories are still being dragged down by their incumbent MP, Aidan Burley. I don't think the current prices are too far wrong.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited November 2014
    isam said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    Cannock Chase was available at 200/1 when I suggested it was a good UKIP chance in May 2013

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/cannock-chase/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today

    Indeed, I hope you got on.

    200/1 would be an incredible PB tip.
    Unfortunately not.. I did tip it at 150/1, I guess the fact that I put it on a list of possibles when it was 200/1 could count as a tip!
    I put a small bet @ 40/1 on 23/5/2014. So UKIP must have done well there in the locals/EU parliament election.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    If the UK can't handle English votes for English laws in the English parliament at Westminster then it isn't a real country to paraphrase a quip about Ukraine and federalisation.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Eagles,

    I think your comments on Ukip are allowable as they are clearly vulgar abuse.

    I'm not a lawyer, but is vulgar abuse not defamatory because it's clearly meant to rile or annoy and not to be taken seriously.

    Audrey, by comparison, seems genuinely annoyed at Ukip. I can't see why?

    Ukip are collecting support from people who see disadvantages to the European Grand Plan, no matter what the temporary financial benefits. It's a bit like a large company saying that because we're making money, and the CEO has received a large pay rise, the workers on the shop floor (with no pay rise or even a drop in pay) should rejoice.

    A reasonable reaction would be two fingers, surely?

    I may not totally agree, but I can understand the point.

    The most potent weapon in politics - it's not fair.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannock_Chase_District_Council_election,_2014

    Lab 35 UKIP 33.3% Con 23.8%

    Lord Ashcroft:

    Lab 32 UKIP 30
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,466
    edited November 2014
    Alistair said:

    Socrates said:

    £109 billion out of a total of £117 billion spent by the EU in 2013 was "affected by material error”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11209248/EU-auditors-refuse-to-sign-off-more-than-100billion-of-its-own-spending.html

    The EU has a higher level of accountancy standards than many of its constituent countries. If the UK had the same rules then it too would be unable to sign off on its unified accounts.
    Does anybody know where I can read a decent, non-partisan account of what went wrong here?

    Refusal of an audit certificate would be disastrous for most companies but evidently different rules apply to the EU. I'm wondering just how serious the qualification is? If it was a one-off, long ago, and subsequent accounts have only been qualified because the prior error has not been corrected, it's not great but it does put it into some sort of perspective.

    Otoh, if the EU accounting is a perennial shambles there really is a case for closing the whole joint down.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Alistair said:

    Socrates said:

    £109 billion out of a total of £117 billion spent by the EU in 2013 was "affected by material error”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11209248/EU-auditors-refuse-to-sign-off-more-than-100billion-of-its-own-spending.html

    The EU has a higher level of accountancy standards than many of its constituent countries. If the UK had the same rules then it too would be unable to sign off on its unified accounts.
    Source please. (For the latter, not the former: we know that Romania, Italy, France etc are cesspools of corruption.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited November 2014
    Does anyone here have the time to do a correlation of the Ashcroft polls with the local election results ?

    Might do it myself tbh - could be a good use of the weekend :)

  • Socrates said:

    This is a devastating account that was white-washed by the UK media:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/04/libyan-troops-go-wild-in-england.html

    It was on the BBC news yesterday evening.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    it's good optics for Salmond to hold a rural seat instead.

    Did any rural seats vote 'Yes'?

    No.

    That's why it's also good optics for him to stand in a place that said 'No'.

    I'm interested to see what happens in places like the South of Scotland that went 30/70 in favour of No. The SNP polled an enormous 12% in Dumfries and Galloway, 9% in the Borders and 10% in Dumfriesshire. some people are blithely assuming Yes=SNP and No=NotSNP. If so then the SNP are going to see some dramatic vote share gains in the South of Scotland.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    edited November 2014






    I think the SDP was actually a protest party: they were reacting against the Labour left-lurch. Your avatar would suggest you don't remember it, but I and others on here certainly will and the Gang of Four were standing up in protest against the direction the Labour party was heading.

    And I don't agree with your view about the Labour party foundation. I think that was much more pro-workers movement: positively campaigning for them rather than just a protest against. It was also a broad church movement, positively pulling-in others.

    I'm not sure your other arguments really stand up to much scrutiny either, at least not compared to UKIP.

    You have rounded off with a non sequitur. Of course not all political movements need be founded because they are against something. They can be founded because they are 'for' things: positively setting new agendas, representing new groups etc.

    However, the above might be the sort of hair-splitting to share over a pint. My point is that UKIP come across to me as considerably malcontented. They seem so, well, to put in one word … unhappy. Sure, catch Farage with a fag and a pint (most of the time) and he laughs a lot for camera but the rhetoric is all so whining and whinging. Look at the kippers on here, like Socrates, MikeK, Kent and Tyndall: constant moan bloody moan. Someone needs to tell them to lighten up ffs.

    What a load of garbage. As I posted at the end of the last thread it is the Tories with their idea of some divine right to votes who do most of the moaning and you are one of the worst of them.

    Indeed I rarely see any comment from you on here that isn't fanatically in support of your party and as with other Tories I see a distinct lack of principles in your postings.

    At least some of us in UKIP are happy to criticise the party we lend our votes to. You on the other hand as a typical Tory Europhile do nothing but moan about others.

    UKIP are at least coming up with constructive answers to the issues of the day unlike your lot who either pretend there is nothing wrong or go for trite unsustainable answers just to try and fool the voters who you have nothing but scorn for.

    The Tories on here are most definitely the angry party - although perhaps the sulky party would be a more accurate description at the moment.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited November 2014
    Socrates said:


    And California is governed very well. It has gone from a huge budget deficit to a budget surplus in just five years: http://www.nationalmemo.com/the-5-best-ideas-from-californias-progressive-resurgence

    They only had that deficit in the first place because they passed a bunch of utterly lunatic ballot propositions. It takes a special kind of mis-government to create a huge deficit in a state containing a bunch of the world's most profitable and fastest-growing companies. And they don't even have decent public transport infrastructure or anything to show for it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Socrates said:

    Alistair said:

    Socrates said:

    £109 billion out of a total of £117 billion spent by the EU in 2013 was "affected by material error”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11209248/EU-auditors-refuse-to-sign-off-more-than-100billion-of-its-own-spending.html

    The EU has a higher level of accountancy standards than many of its constituent countries. If the UK had the same rules then it too would be unable to sign off on its unified accounts.
    Source please. (For the latter, not the former: we know that Romania, Italy, France etc are cesspools of corruption.)
    I presume what Alistair means is that the EU has its accounts audited by the EU Court of Auditors, who use various outside accounting firms. The process is much like with a firm's audit, where they take a sample (a few thousand) invoices and claims, and check their veracity.

    The UK has the National Audit Office, whose remit is narrower, and which does not tend (as far I'm aware) to use external professional services firms.

    The EU Court of Auditors report is here -http://www.eca.europa.eu/Lists/ECADocuments/AB_2013/AB_2013_EN.pdf - and is well worth reading. They state that the error rate for payments is 4.7%; that is 4.7% (€7.4bn) of money that was paid out by the EU was not paid out according to proper policy - although this does not mean all of of this is fraudulent.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Socrates said:

    This is a devastating account that was white-washed by the UK media:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/04/libyan-troops-go-wild-in-england.html

    Except it wasn't.

    As for soldiers on the rampage, it's what some of them do. The British have got up to far worse in Cyprus, and many other garrisons.
  • Last night was a disaster for the Democrats.

    Probably the statistic of the evening for them is this:

    Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-Kentucky) in one of the most expensive senate contests of the year, ran just 2% points better than Travis Childers did for the Democrats in Mississippi who received bugger all cash from the Dems.

    I guess it proves that money can't change demographics.
  • TGOHF said:

    Socrates said:

    This is a devastating account that was white-washed by the UK media:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/04/libyan-troops-go-wild-in-england.html

    Some serious questions for the MoD and MP to answer - there was supposed to be no unauthorised leaving of the base.
    Reports state that they escaped the base using the well-known stealth vehicle of a bicycle.
  • JohnO said:

    Socrates said:

    This is a devastating account that was white-washed by the UK media:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/04/libyan-troops-go-wild-in-england.html

    You mean like this in today's Daily Mail

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2820269/Government-ends-training-Libyan-soldiers-UK-five-face-court-today-charged-sex-attacks-men-women.html

    Or a lengthy item on yesterday's Channel 4 News.

    You're losing it, mate.
    It was also the lead item on the BBC radio news last night.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Labour @ 1-2 in Bury North looks fair enough to me.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannock_Chase_District_Council_election,_2014

    Lab 35 UKIP 33.3% Con 23.8%

    Lord Ashcroft:

    Lab 32 UKIP 30

    The Fabian Society have it down as 50th on the Labour target seat list.

    http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited November 2014

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    Cannock Chase was available at 200/1 when I suggested it was a good UKIP chance in May 2013

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/cannock-chase/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today

    Indeed, I hope you got on.

    200/1 would be an incredible PB tip.
    That's an astonishing call, Isam, and if it comes in would set a new PB record, eclipsing OGH's 100/1 Santorum shot.

    Don't forget my 500/1 on Southampton for the premiership.

    OK, maybe not very likely then ;)

    You could still get 6/1 this week on them finishing in the top 4.

    (p.s. I'm a Spurs supporter.)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    Cannock Chase was available at 200/1 when I suggested it was a good UKIP chance in May 2013

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/cannock-chase/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today

    Indeed, I hope you got on.

    200/1 would be an incredible PB tip.
    That's an astonishing call, Isam, and if it comes in would set a new PB record, eclipsing OGH's 100/1 Santorum shot.

    The Power of PB has brought the UKIP Cannock Chase price in to 6s (PP) and 4s (Lads). That still looks generous to me. They are only 2 points behind Labour and on Q1 of the two-part questionnaire they were actually ahead. Even so they look best placed to benefit from any squeeze on either of the two other main Parties.

    I'd make them 7/4 at most.
    Thanks, Peter. It would be the longest priced winning tip on PB would it?

    I am sure OGH and TSE cant wait to lavish praise on me for it should it cop!!

    Mind you OGH thinks a 40/1 shot that is now 7/2 (Camborne and Redruth a 20% difference) is a better tip than a 7/1 shot now 4/7 (Boston 51%) or a 16/1 that's now 4/5 (Thurrock 49%), so I am not holding my breath
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    This fetal alcohol syndrome case looks like a can of worms to my ignorant self.

    I know we have some legal people on here (when they're not comparing shoe styles and holiday homes), so what are the implications for abortion, if any?

    If harming the embryo/foetus by drinking too much is actionable, yet aborting the foetus isn't, then where do we draw a line?

    And that's without all the other possibler risky activities.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2014
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    it's good optics for Salmond to hold a rural seat instead.

    Did any rural seats vote 'Yes'?

    No.

    That's why it's also good optics for him to stand in a place that said 'No'.

    I'm interested to see what happens in places like the South of Scotland that went 30/70 in favour of No. The SNP polled an enormous 12% in Dumfries and Galloway, 9% in the Borders and 10% in Dumfriesshire. some people are blithely assuming Yes=SNP and No=NotSNP. If so then the SNP are going to see some dramatic vote share gains in the South of Scotland.
    IIRC, the yes vote was generally more correlated to the highest 20% SIND (deprivation) figures than the 2011 SNP vote. I remember as the council area declarations really got going (after the slight anomaly of clackmannanshire), the betfair punters kept being surprised when places like inverclyde & the lanarkshires posted higher yes% figures than people were expecting.

    I made a fair amount of money trading those results :)
This discussion has been closed.