Local matters – politicalbetting.com

williamglenn said:

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

williamglenn said:

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

Sandpit said:

londonpubman said:

Does this mean that there might be a LAB government soon? 😈

I’m still on 24th October as Election Day, so a year from now we’ll be three days away from a change of government.

TimS said:

Fascinating. As HYUFD says (or implies) though, the Tories will start winning council elections off Labour and the Lib Dems before they recover nationally. Friday mornings won’t be so fun anymore.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

No.
Friedman's entire career was built around reporting on the region. Read his biography:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Friedman
And give him the credit he deserves for giving honest advice.

In 2000, Friedman championed Free Trade with The People's Republic of China, claiming that Free Trade would make China more democratic.[26]

... Friedman's column supporting Vladimir Putin as a modernizing reformer, in which he urged Americans to "keep rootin' for Putin"

We're all human and make mistakes.

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

No.
Friedman's entire career was built around reporting on the region. Read his biography:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Friedman
And give him the credit he deserves for giving honest advice.

In 2000, Friedman championed Free Trade with The People's Republic of China, claiming that Free Trade would make China more democratic.[26]

... Friedman's column supporting Vladimir Putin as a modernizing reformer, in which he urged Americans to "keep rootin' for Putin"

We're all human and make mistakes.

Oh, he's made a number of mistakes - not least being at the time an enthusiastic supporter of invading Iraq in 2003.

But he's a string supporter of Israel, and it's absurd to d suggest that his opinion in this case is not entirely sincere.

kinabalu said:

In Argentina we have another one of those 'not like normal politicians' who people are liking because he 'tells it like it is', I understand.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

No.
Friedman's entire career was built around reporting on the region. Read his biography:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Friedman
And give him the credit he deserves for giving honest advice.

In 2000, Friedman championed Free Trade with The People's Republic of China, claiming that Free Trade would make China more democratic.[26]

... Friedman's column supporting Vladimir Putin as a modernizing reformer, in which he urged Americans to "keep rootin' for Putin"

We're all human and make mistakes.

Oh, he's made a number of mistakes - not least being at the time an enthusiastic supporter of invading Iraq in 2003.

But he's a string supporter of Israel, and it's absurd to d suggest that his opinion in this case is not entirely sincere.

I'm sure he's sincere.

I'm not sure he's correct.

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:

In Argentina we have another one of those 'not like normal politicians' who people are liking because he 'tells it like it is', I understand.

Argentina needs a "not like normal" politician.

Argentina's "normal" politicians have been a disaster for a century.

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, another excellent article from @Alanbrooke. And there's not a lot I can add.

Except perhaps for two things:

(1) I think there is a more innovative work going on in China that @Alanbrooke probably gives them credit for. The speed at which they have been able to replace Western/Taiwanese/Korean supply chains in the smartphone space being one area.

(2) As China population ages, and as the government needs to provide for its population, the less they will run massive trade surpluses, and the less room there is for China to throw their weight around economically. They are going to find themselves constrained in a way that just isn't the case right now.

Should I bring up Zeihan on Chinese Demographics again? Yes. yes, I think I should

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBMSZ7v3KxQ : New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse || Peter Zeihan
  
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MSV2bh48MA : Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse
  

Or, indeed, this excellent and underwatched video: https://youtu.be/OxUbPlR9HL8?si=Z1aacBWiK_iDAc4D

• i) Your channel in toto got about a million views, and I imagine your viewership would be quite well off. Did you manetise it and if so about how much did you get? My rule of thumb is about £20 per thousand views.
  
• ii) You did quite a professional in-person presentation, with green screen and professional appearance and good sound. Did you consider a presentation with just voice? Is the personal appearance necessary to build up a relationship with the audience, and would a faceless presentation be better or worse?
  
• iii) Other methods include animated (History Buffs), occasional cartoons (Dave Cullen), or AI generated (here, here). Do you have an opinion on which modality is best here?
  

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:

In Argentina we have another one of those 'not like normal politicians' who people are liking because he 'tells it like it is', I understand.

Argentina needs a "not like normal" politician.

Argentina's "normal" politicians have been a disaster for a century.

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

Fascinating. As HYUFD says (or implies) though, the Tories will start winning council elections off Labour and the Lib Dems before they recover nationally. Friday mornings won’t be so fun anymore.

Indeed, even William Hague started to make gains in council by elections and annual local elections from 1998 to 2000 despite making only a net gain of 1 seat at the 2001 general election. Ed Miliband too gained council seats from 2011 to 2014 at local elections despite only gaining 1% at the 2015 general election.

At least local Tories know locally next year is likely to be their lowest ebb, as 1996 was for Tory councillors in the dying years of the Major government and 2009 was for Labour councillors in the dying years of the Brown government. Even if nationally it is a much longer road back to power

The Conservative recovery began on May 1st 1997 when they regained a number of County Council seats lost in 1993. Surrey, for example, where the Conservatives had lost overall control in 1993, was regained.

As an example of current local collapse, the Horsleys Ward in Guildford was in 2017 won by the Conservatives with 54% of the vote. Last Thursday, at a by-election, they came third with 20%.

Yes and Horsleys is the type of seat that can be regained in opposition when the likely next Labour government starts to face a protest vote.

Albeit seats lost to the LDs normally take longer to regain as there is less protest vote against them unless they are also in government as with the Coalition

IF the GE isn't held until early 2025, it seems unlikely any incoming Labour Government will have exhausted its political honeymoon by May when the next round of County Council elections are scheduled.

If ot course Sunak goes for October 2024 and still loses, said County Council elections will be the first real test of the new Government's popularity.

In the 2011 local elections a year after losing power Labour gained 26 councils and 857 councillors.

Albeit the 2021 county council elections were the last set of local elections the Tories did well in which might cap their potential gains

TimS said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

DoubleCarpet said:

Argentina

Polls close 10pm UK time - heading out shortly and back after polls close, so posting links a bit earlier than usual.

Note it's a modified two-round system for the presidency - to win in round 1, either finish top with above 45%, OR finish top with above 40% and be 10% clear of the next candidate, otherwise it's a runoff.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-argentina-election/

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/10/if-milei-meets-massa-second-round-all-bets-are-argentinas-election-and-countrys-future

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwupNXFI7-4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4e8Iw3Frf1A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cb12KmMMDJA

https://www.argentina.gob.ar/elecciones-2023

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/

Many thanks,

DC

I've not followed this election much, but it seems they have an historic opportunity to turn the page on the disastrous result of decades of Peronism. I hope they seize it, and it turns out well, and the new leader doesn't end up being just a self-aggrandising corrupt individual like Argentina is used to, or Trump etc

While the UK and Europe has its problems, Argentina is a living warning that things can get much worse. Its remarkable to think Argentina used to be one of the richest and most developed countries on the planet per capita.

I was reflecting on Argentina and it did occur to me that things could be a lot worse. It’s been an economic and political basket case for as long as I remember, but, being where it is (and the Falklands debacle aside) it’s far far away from genocide, ethnic cleansing, wars of conquest, terrorism, or any prospect of being wiped out in WW3. Even civil war or narco gangsterism of the sort suffered in Peru,
Mexico or Colombia.

I could imagine that being a maker of decent Malbec somewhere in the Andean foothills near Mendoza might be a decent life, notwithstanding the politico-economic carnage all around.

Cookie said:

EDIT: Appears the journey from Ingliston is actually 32 minutes - 45 minutes included a walk (presumably to the car park?) at the Ingliston end. But still. Seems a little suboptimal.

Nigelb said:

Gaps in UK law allowing ‘jihad’ to be shouted were ‘known to government’
Britain’s ex-head of counter-terrorism says government failed to act on a recommendation to change legislation
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/22/gaps-in-uk-law-allowing-shouts-of-jihad-know-to-government

Leon said:

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

Leon said:

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

Leon said:

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

EDIT: Appears the journey from Ingliston is actually 32 minutes - 45 minutes included a walk (presumably to the car park?) at the Ingliston end. But still. Seems a little suboptimal.

Depends if you value cost over stress. Park and ride guarantees you a space, at a known price, and does put your car on the right side of the city both in and out again (straight from Ingliston onto the bypass, head for Carlisle, job done)

And the 32 minutes on the tram is not unpleasant, and will drop you right on Princes Street

What would you do Scott? I'd likely be arriving in Edinburgh at about 10 - so after rush hour - but probably leaving about 4.30 ish.

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, another excellent article from @Alanbrooke. And there's not a lot I can add.

Except perhaps for two things:

(1) I think there is a more innovative work going on in China that @Alanbrooke probably gives them credit for. The speed at which they have been able to replace Western/Taiwanese/Korean supply chains in the smartphone space being one area.

(2) As China population ages, and as the government needs to provide for its population, the less they will run massive trade surpluses, and the less room there is for China to throw their weight around economically. They are going to find themselves constrained in a way that just isn't the case right now.

Should I bring up Zeihan on Chinese Demographics again? Yes. yes, I think I should

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBMSZ7v3KxQ : New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse || Peter Zeihan
  
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MSV2bh48MA : Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse
  

Or, indeed, this excellent and underwatched video: https://youtu.be/OxUbPlR9HL8?si=Z1aacBWiK_iDAc4D

That's...quite good, thank you. I watched it. Some questions, not about the content

• i) Your channel in toto got about a million views, and I imagine your viewership would be quite well off. Did you manetise it and if so about how much did you get? My rule of thumb is about £20 per thousand views.
  
• ii) You did quite a professional in-person presentation, with green screen and professional appearance and good sound. Did you consider a presentation with just voice? Is the personal appearance necessary to build up a relationship with the audience, and would a faceless presentation be better or worse?
  
• iii) Other methods include animated (History Buffs), occasional cartoons (Dave Cullen), or AI generated (here, here). Do you have an opinion on which modality is best here?
  

Phew. Good questions.

The reality is that my channel was doing OK - not least because I was able to use PB to kick start videos, which mean that I'd get a couple of thousands views without trying.

But I was quite lonely making them. I also found that the videos that took off where the ones which were most controversial (How To End Illegal Immigration, 222k views).

And I had a really good idea for a new startup, so I did that instead.

If I sell Just, and go back to making videos, I think I might do it more as a proper business. But you need to get up 300k views (every) video if you're going to make it work. Of course, if you can get it up to 500k or 1m, then suddenly you're doing exceptionally well, but breaking out from 200k for one in ten videos, to 300k for every one is a big leap.

Nigelb said:

Gaps in UK law allowing ‘jihad’ to be shouted were ‘known to government’
Britain’s ex-head of counter-terrorism says government failed to act on a recommendation to change legislation
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/22/gaps-in-uk-law-allowing-shouts-of-jihad-know-to-government

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

EDIT: Appears the journey from Ingliston is actually 32 minutes - 45 minutes included a walk (presumably to the car park?) at the Ingliston end. But still. Seems a little suboptimal.

Depends if you value cost over stress. Park and ride guarantees you a space, at a known price, and does put your car on the right side of the city both in and out again (straight from Ingliston onto the bypass, head for Carlisle, job done)

And the 32 minutes on the tram is not unpleasant, and will drop you right on Princes Street

What would you do Scott? I'd likely be arriving in Edinburgh at about 10 - so after rush hour - but probably leaving about 4.30 ish.

I don't live there anymore, but I find driving into town when I'm back stressful now, and the relentless war on the motorist means there are fewer parking spaces in the city centre than there were in my day. Having taken the tram from the Gyle, I think that would be my preferred option.

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

EDIT: Appears the journey from Ingliston is actually 32 minutes - 45 minutes included a walk (presumably to the car park?) at the Ingliston end. But still. Seems a little suboptimal.

Depends if you value cost over stress. Park and ride guarantees you a space, at a known price, and does put your car on the right side of the city both in and out again (straight from Ingliston onto the bypass, head for Carlisle, job done)

And the 32 minutes on the tram is not unpleasant, and will drop you right on Princes Street

What would you do Scott? I'd likely be arriving in Edinburgh at about 10 - so after rush hour - but probably leaving about 4.30 ish.

I don't live there anymore, but I find driving into town when I'm back stressful now, and the relentless war on the motorist means there are fewer parking spaces in the city centre than there were in my day. Having taken the tram from the Gyle, I think that would be my preferred option.

That's how I felt last year - I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist. On which basis, I thought the P&R options would be a bit quicker. If they had put a P&R at Edinburgh Park or Edinburgh Gateway you could be in the city centre in ten minutes - there can't be many better locations for a P&R anywhere in the oountry. Odd they used Ingliston.

Malmesbury said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:

In Argentina we have another one of those 'not like normal politicians' who people are liking because he 'tells it like it is', I understand.

Argentina needs a "not like normal" politician.

Argentina's "normal" politicians have been a disaster for a century.

They’ve been a succession of “unlike the establishment, I’m on your side” populists. Who fuckup every single time.

HYUFD said:

Nigelb said:

Gaps in UK law allowing ‘jihad’ to be shouted were ‘known to government’
Britain’s ex-head of counter-terrorism says government failed to act on a recommendation to change legislation
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/22/gaps-in-uk-law-allowing-shouts-of-jihad-know-to-government

The law forbids inciting terrorism, how shouting 'jihad' doesn't do that is beyond me?

You can be assured if someone in a far right crowd had shouted 'white power' the Met would have arrested them like a shot for inciting racial hatred!

Scott_xP said:

Leon said:

Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch

EH?

I am struggling to imagine how you can fuck it up

ohnotnow said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Let me introduce you to the tiny rice cooker from Lakeland :

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B083CMMFHM/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Makes great rice and is barely the size of a 500g bag of... rice.

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, another excellent article from @Alanbrooke. And there's not a lot I can add.

Except perhaps for two things:

(1) I think there is a more innovative work going on in China that @Alanbrooke probably gives them credit for. The speed at which they have been able to replace Western/Taiwanese/Korean supply chains in the smartphone space being one area.

(2) As China population ages, and as the government needs to provide for its population, the less they will run massive trade surpluses, and the less room there is for China to throw their weight around economically. They are going to find themselves constrained in a way that just isn't the case right now.

Should I bring up Zeihan on Chinese Demographics again? Yes. yes, I think I should

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBMSZ7v3KxQ : New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse || Peter Zeihan
  
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MSV2bh48MA : Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse
  

Or, indeed, this excellent and underwatched video: https://youtu.be/OxUbPlR9HL8?si=Z1aacBWiK_iDAc4D

That's...quite good, thank you. I watched it. Some questions, not about the content

• i) Your channel in toto got about a million views, and I imagine your viewership would be quite well off. Did you manetise it and if so about how much did you get? My rule of thumb is about £20 per thousand views.
  
• ii) You did quite a professional in-person presentation, with green screen and professional appearance and good sound. Did you consider a presentation with just voice? Is the personal appearance necessary to build up a relationship with the audience, and would a faceless presentation be better or worse?
  
• iii) Other methods include animated (History Buffs), occasional cartoons (Dave Cullen), or AI generated (here, here). Do you have an opinion on which modality is best here?
  

Phew. Good questions.

The reality is that my channel was doing OK - not least because I was able to use PB to kick start videos, which mean that I'd get a couple of thousands views without trying.

But I was quite lonely making them. I also found that the videos that took off where the ones which were most controversial (How To End Illegal Immigration, 222k views).

And I had a really good idea for a new startup, so I did that instead.

If I sell Just, and go back to making videos, I think I might do it more as a proper business. But you need to get up 300k views (every) video if you're going to make it work. Of course, if you can get it up to 500k or 1m, then suddenly you're doing exceptionally well, but breaking out from 200k for one in ten videos, to 300k for every one is a big leap.

Leon said:

ohnotnow said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Let me introduce you to the tiny rice cooker from Lakeland :

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B083CMMFHM/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Makes great rice and is barely the size of a 500g bag of... rice.

Yeah no I’m not gonna buy a rice cooker. I might have done if they hadn’t perfected microwave rice. But they have

Carnyx said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist.

A policy the council have pursued with relentless zeal ever since the days of Alistair Darling (remember him?)

Nonsense. Was always inherent in the physical geography of the place.

Scott_xP said:

Carnyx said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist.

A policy the council have pursued with relentless zeal ever since the days of Alistair Darling (remember him?)

Nonsense. Was always inherent in the physical geography of the place.

There was a time you could drive into town, park on George Street, visit the shops and drive home.

Trainspotting features cars driving on Princes Street!!!

None of that geography changed, just the policies...

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Scott_xP said:

Carnyx said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist.

A policy the council have pursued with relentless zeal ever since the days of Alistair Darling (remember him?)

Nonsense. Was always inherent in the physical geography of the place.

There was a time you could drive into town, park on George Street, visit the shops and drive home.

Trainspotting features cars driving on Princes Street!!!

None of that geography changed, just the policies...

ohnotnow said:

Leon said:

ohnotnow said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Let me introduce you to the tiny rice cooker from Lakeland :

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B083CMMFHM/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Makes great rice and is barely the size of a 500g bag of... rice.

Yeah no I’m not gonna buy a rice cooker. I might have done if they hadn’t perfected microwave rice. But they have

It's really significantly better. Give it a second thought.

Leon said:

ohnotnow said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Let me introduce you to the tiny rice cooker from Lakeland :

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B083CMMFHM/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Makes great rice and is barely the size of a 500g bag of... rice.

Yeah no I’m not gonna buy a rice cooker. I might have done if they hadn’t perfected microwave rice. But they have

Cookie said:

Leon said:

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

darkage said:

Like you say the microwaveable packet rice (Tilda in this case) is better than cooking it properly. I would never have thought that would be possible.

darkage said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

Yeah I can cook, that is not the issue. Not brilliantly well but ok. I've just always found rice to be a pain particularly for one person. Like you say the microwaveable packet rice (Tilda in this case) is better than cooking it properly. I would never have thought that would be possible.

Leon said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Leon said:

Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch

Seriously?

Get a 60ml measure (¼ of a metric cup) and scoop out one measure per person of dry rice.

Put in a pot and completely cover with water. Stir all the rice for 30 seconds. Leave for 2 mins.

Pour the milky water away. Rinse with clean water and pour it away.

For every scoop of rice you put in, put 1½ scoops of water in the pot, so for two people, two scoops of rice and 3 of water.

Heat until it boils. Put a lid on the pot. Turn off the heat.

Leave for 30 mins. DO NOT REMOVE THE LID because the pot is acting like a steamer.

After 30 mins, remove the lid and serve. It might need fluffing with a spoon or fork, but that is rice for you.

I mean, lol

I find it hard to believe people are still doing this. Given how good microwave rice is - which takes TWO MINUTES and is perfect every time. And I can get whole grain basmati with wild rice for crunch. But bravo