Local matters – politicalbetting.com

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Local matters – politicalbetting.com

The recent parliamentary by elections will be subject to endless detailed analysis, but they are just two data points. There are many more council by elections, several every week: can they tell us anything about how voters are viewing the parties? Any individual council by election may be subject to local factors; but taken together, a picture may emerge of how a party is performing overall, and how the electorate feel about them. Let’s look at how the Conservatives have been doing when it comes to defending seats they hold.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

First and thanks James.

Alphabet_Soup

Seconded

Peter_the_Punter

Thanks James, I'd like to see more local election analysis on the site, though i appreciate it isn't easy to do (and I'm not volunteering myself.)

HYUFD

A governing party losing most of its council seats as this one now is is a sign it is heading for defeat.

Starting to reclaim those council seats is then the first step to recovery in Opposition

Sunil_Prasannan

Interesting stuff, many thanks!

williamglenn

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

TheScreamingEagles

williamglenn said:

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

Whereas those on the right chant 'Jews will not replace us.'

TimS

Fascinating. As HYUFD says (or implies) though, the Tories will start winning council elections off Labour and the Lib Dems before they recover nationally. Friday mornings won’t be so fun anymore.

londonpubman

Does this mean that there might be a LAB government soon? 😈

Sandpit

londonpubman said:

Does this mean that there might be a LAB government soon? 😈

I’m still on 24th October as Election Day, so a year from now we’ll be three days away from a change of government.

Nigelb

williamglenn said:

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

No.
Friedman's entire career was built around reporting on the region. Read his biography:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Friedman
And give him the credit he deserves for giving honest advice.

Sandpit

Great piece James, clearly a lot of research went into it.

viewcode

That's quite interesting @jamesdoyle : I look forward to the follow-up

BartholomewRoberts

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

No.
Friedman's entire career was built around reporting on the region. Read his biography:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Friedman
And give him the credit he deserves for giving honest advice.

In 2000, Friedman championed Free Trade with The People's Republic of China, claiming that Free Trade would make China more democratic.[26]

... Friedman's column supporting Vladimir Putin as a modernizing reformer, in which he urged Americans to "keep rootin' for Putin"

We're all human and make mistakes.

londonpubman

Sandpit said:

londonpubman said:

Does this mean that there might be a LAB government soon? 😈

I’m still on 24th October as Election Day, so a year from now we’ll be three days away from a change of government.

Yes in my view it's May or Oct.

And as someone who believes in proper CON principles I have concluded that we are well on our way out.

Sandpit

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

No.
Friedman's entire career was built around reporting on the region. Read his biography:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Friedman
And give him the credit he deserves for giving honest advice.

In 2000, Friedman championed Free Trade with The People's Republic of China, claiming that Free Trade would make China more democratic.[26]

... Friedman's column supporting Vladimir Putin as a modernizing reformer, in which he urged Americans to "keep rootin' for Putin"

We're all human and make mistakes.

Both nice ideas in theory, but somewhat less so in practice as it turned out.

HYUFD

TimS said:

Fascinating. As HYUFD says (or implies) though, the Tories will start winning council elections off Labour and the Lib Dems before they recover nationally. Friday mornings won’t be so fun anymore.

Indeed, even William Hague started to make gains in council by elections and annual local elections from 1998 to 2000 despite making only a net gain of 1 seat at the 2001 general election. Ed Miliband too gained council seats from 2011 to 2014 at local elections despite only gaining 1% at the 2015 general election.

At least local Tories know locally next year is likely to be their lowest ebb, as 1996 was for Tory councillors in the dying years of the Major government and 2009 was for Labour councillors in the dying years of the Brown government. Even if nationally it is a much longer road back to power

DoubleCarpet

Argentina

Polls close 10pm UK time - heading out shortly and back after polls close, so posting links a bit earlier than usual.

Note it's a modified two-round system for the presidency - to win in round 1, either finish top with above 45%, OR finish top with above 40% and be 10% clear of the next candidate, otherwise it's a runoff.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-argentina-election/

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/10/if-milei-meets-massa-second-round-all-bets-are-argentinas-election-and-countrys-future

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwupNXFI7-4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4e8Iw3Frf1A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cb12KmMMDJA

https://www.argentina.gob.ar/elecciones-2023

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/

Many thanks,

DC

Nigelb

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

No.
Friedman's entire career was built around reporting on the region. Read his biography:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Friedman
And give him the credit he deserves for giving honest advice.

In 2000, Friedman championed Free Trade with The People's Republic of China, claiming that Free Trade would make China more democratic.[26]

... Friedman's column supporting Vladimir Putin as a modernizing reformer, in which he urged Americans to "keep rootin' for Putin"

We're all human and make mistakes.

Oh, he's made a number of mistakes - not least being at the time an enthusiastic supporter of invading Iraq in 2003.

But he's a string supporter of Israel, and it's absurd to d suggest that his opinion in this case is not entirely sincere.

BartholomewRoberts

DoubleCarpet said:

Argentina

Polls close 10pm UK time - heading out shortly and back after polls close, so posting links a bit earlier than usual.

Note it's a modified two-round system for the presidency - to win in round 1, either finish top with above 45%, OR finish top with above 40% and be 10% clear of the next candidate, otherwise it's a runoff.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-argentina-election/

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/10/if-milei-meets-massa-second-round-all-bets-are-argentinas-election-and-countrys-future

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwupNXFI7-4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4e8Iw3Frf1A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cb12KmMMDJA

https://www.argentina.gob.ar/elecciones-2023

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/

Many thanks,

DC

I've not followed this election much, but it seems they have an historic opportunity to turn the page on the disastrous result of decades of Peronism. I hope they seize it, and it turns out well, and the new leader doesn't end up being just a self-aggrandising corrupt individual like Argentina is used to, or Trump etc

While the UK and Europe has its problems, Argentina is a living warning that things can get much worse. Its remarkable to think Argentina used to be one of the richest and most developed countries on the planet per capita.

BartholomewRoberts

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

No.
Friedman's entire career was built around reporting on the region. Read his biography:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Friedman
And give him the credit he deserves for giving honest advice.

In 2000, Friedman championed Free Trade with The People's Republic of China, claiming that Free Trade would make China more democratic.[26]

... Friedman's column supporting Vladimir Putin as a modernizing reformer, in which he urged Americans to "keep rootin' for Putin"

We're all human and make mistakes.

Oh, he's made a number of mistakes - not least being at the time an enthusiastic supporter of invading Iraq in 2003.

But he's a string supporter of Israel, and it's absurd to d suggest that his opinion in this case is not entirely sincere.

I'm sure he's sincere.

I'm not sure he's correct.

kinabalu

In Argentina we have another one of those 'not like normal politicians' who people are liking because he 'tells it like it is', I understand.

Scott_xP

...

TimS

BartholomewRoberts said:

DoubleCarpet said:

Argentina

Polls close 10pm UK time - heading out shortly and back after polls close, so posting links a bit earlier than usual.

Note it's a modified two-round system for the presidency - to win in round 1, either finish top with above 45%, OR finish top with above 40% and be 10% clear of the next candidate, otherwise it's a runoff.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-argentina-election/

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/10/if-milei-meets-massa-second-round-all-bets-are-argentinas-election-and-countrys-future

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwupNXFI7-4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4e8Iw3Frf1A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cb12KmMMDJA

https://www.argentina.gob.ar/elecciones-2023

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/

Many thanks,

DC

I've not followed this election much, but it seems they have an historic opportunity to turn the page on the disastrous result of decades of Peronism. I hope they seize it, and it turns out well, and the new leader doesn't end up being just a self-aggrandising corrupt individual like Argentina is used to, or Trump etc

While the UK and Europe has its problems, Argentina is a living warning that things can get much worse. Its remarkable to think Argentina used to be one of the richest and most developed countries on the planet per capita.

I was reflecting on Argentina and it did occur to me that things could be a lot worse. It’s been an economic and political basket case for as long as I remember, but, being where it is (and the Falklands debacle aside) it’s far far away from genocide, ethnic cleansing, wars of conquest, terrorism, or any prospect of being wiped out in WW3. Even civil war or narco gangsterism of the sort suffered in Peru,
Mexico or Colombia.

I could imagine that being a maker of decent Malbec somewhere in the Andean foothills near Mendoza might be a decent life, notwithstanding the politico-economic carnage all around.

BartholomewRoberts

kinabalu said:

In Argentina we have another one of those 'not like normal politicians' who people are liking because he 'tells it like it is', I understand.

Argentina needs a "not like normal" politician.

Argentina's "normal" politicians have been a disaster for a century.

stodge

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

Fascinating. As HYUFD says (or implies) though, the Tories will start winning council elections off Labour and the Lib Dems before they recover nationally. Friday mornings won’t be so fun anymore.

Indeed, even William Hague started to make gains in council by elections and annual local elections from 1998 to 2000 despite making only a net gain of 1 seat at the 2001 general election. Ed Miliband too gained council seats from 2011 to 2014 at local elections despite only gaining 1% at the 2015 general election.

At least local Tories know locally next year is likely to be their lowest ebb, as 1996 was for Tory councillors in the dying years of the Major government and 2009 was for Labour councillors in the dying years of the Brown government. Even if nationally it is a much longer road back to power

The Conservative recovery began on May 1st 1997 when they regained a number of County Council seats lost in 1993. Surrey, for example, where the Conservatives had lost overall control in 1993, was regained.

As an example of current local collapse, the Horsleys Ward in Guildford was in 2017 won by the Conservatives with 54% of the vote. Last Thursday, at a by-election, they came third with 20%.

Nigelb

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

No.
Friedman's entire career was built around reporting on the region. Read his biography:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Friedman
And give him the credit he deserves for giving honest advice.

In 2000, Friedman championed Free Trade with The People's Republic of China, claiming that Free Trade would make China more democratic.[26]

... Friedman's column supporting Vladimir Putin as a modernizing reformer, in which he urged Americans to "keep rootin' for Putin"

We're all human and make mistakes.

Oh, he's made a number of mistakes - not least being at the time an enthusiastic supporter of invading Iraq in 2003.

But he's a string supporter of Israel, and it's absurd to d suggest that his opinion in this case is not entirely sincere.

I'm sure he's sincere.

I'm not sure he's correct.

Fair enough.
It was williamglenn's comment I was taking issue with.

HYUFD

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

Fascinating. As HYUFD says (or implies) though, the Tories will start winning council elections off Labour and the Lib Dems before they recover nationally. Friday mornings won’t be so fun anymore.

Indeed, even William Hague started to make gains in council by elections and annual local elections from 1998 to 2000 despite making only a net gain of 1 seat at the 2001 general election. Ed Miliband too gained council seats from 2011 to 2014 at local elections despite only gaining 1% at the 2015 general election.

At least local Tories know locally next year is likely to be their lowest ebb, as 1996 was for Tory councillors in the dying years of the Major government and 2009 was for Labour councillors in the dying years of the Brown government. Even if nationally it is a much longer road back to power

The Conservative recovery began on May 1st 1997 when they regained a number of County Council seats lost in 1993. Surrey, for example, where the Conservatives had lost overall control in 1993, was regained.

As an example of current local collapse, the Horsleys Ward in Guildford was in 2017 won by the Conservatives with 54% of the vote. Last Thursday, at a by-election, they came third with 20%.

Yes and Horsleys is the type of seat that can be regained in opposition when the likely next Labour government starts to face a protest vote.

Albeit seats lost to the LDs normally take longer to regain as there is less protest vote against them unless they are also in government as with the Coalition

nico679

Has the military support of the USA allowed Israel to move away from a two state solution ?

You certainly don’t want a defenseless Israel with so many enemies in the region but has its oversized military allowed it to act hubristically.

stodge

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

Fascinating. As HYUFD says (or implies) though, the Tories will start winning council elections off Labour and the Lib Dems before they recover nationally. Friday mornings won’t be so fun anymore.

Indeed, even William Hague started to make gains in council by elections and annual local elections from 1998 to 2000 despite making only a net gain of 1 seat at the 2001 general election. Ed Miliband too gained council seats from 2011 to 2014 at local elections despite only gaining 1% at the 2015 general election.

At least local Tories know locally next year is likely to be their lowest ebb, as 1996 was for Tory councillors in the dying years of the Major government and 2009 was for Labour councillors in the dying years of the Brown government. Even if nationally it is a much longer road back to power

The Conservative recovery began on May 1st 1997 when they regained a number of County Council seats lost in 1993. Surrey, for example, where the Conservatives had lost overall control in 1993, was regained.

As an example of current local collapse, the Horsleys Ward in Guildford was in 2017 won by the Conservatives with 54% of the vote. Last Thursday, at a by-election, they came third with 20%.

Yes and Horsleys is the type of seat that can be regained in opposition when the likely next Labour government starts to face a protest vote.

Albeit seats lost to the LDs normally take longer to regain as there is less protest vote against them unless they are also in government as with the Coalition

IF the GE isn't held until early 2025, it seems unlikely any incoming Labour Government will have exhausted its political honeymoon by May when the next round of County Council elections are scheduled.

If ot course Sunak goes for October 2024 and still loses, said County Council elections will be the first real test of the new Government's popularity.

TimS

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:

In Argentina we have another one of those 'not like normal politicians' who people are liking because he 'tells it like it is', I understand.

Argentina needs a "not like normal" politician.

Argentina's "normal" politicians have been a disaster for a century.

Their normal politicians haven’t been very normal though. A decent technocrat with good managerial skills and an ability to simplify the country’s mindless bureaucracy might work wonders.

darkage

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

viewcode

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, another excellent article from @Alanbrooke. And there's not a lot I can add.

Except perhaps for two things:

(1) I think there is a more innovative work going on in China that @Alanbrooke probably gives them credit for. The speed at which they have been able to replace Western/Taiwanese/Korean supply chains in the smartphone space being one area.

(2) As China population ages, and as the government needs to provide for its population, the less they will run massive trade surpluses, and the less room there is for China to throw their weight around economically. They are going to find themselves constrained in a way that just isn't the case right now.

Should I bring up Zeihan on Chinese Demographics again? Yes. yes, I think I should

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBMSZ7v3KxQ : New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse || Peter Zeihan
  
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MSV2bh48MA : Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse
  

Or, indeed, this excellent and underwatched video: https://youtu.be/OxUbPlR9HL8?si=Z1aacBWiK_iDAc4D

That's...quite good, thank you. I watched it. Some questions, not about the content

• i) Your channel in toto got about a million views, and I imagine your viewership would be quite well off. Did you manetise it and if so about how much did you get? My rule of thumb is about £20 per thousand views.
  
• ii) You did quite a professional in-person presentation, with green screen and professional appearance and good sound. Did you consider a presentation with just voice? Is the personal appearance necessary to build up a relationship with the audience, and would a faceless presentation be better or worse?
  
• iii) Other methods include animated (History Buffs), occasional cartoons (Dave Cullen), or AI generated (here, here). Do you have an opinion on which modality is best here?
  

HYUFD

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

Fascinating. As HYUFD says (or implies) though, the Tories will start winning council elections off Labour and the Lib Dems before they recover nationally. Friday mornings won’t be so fun anymore.

Indeed, even William Hague started to make gains in council by elections and annual local elections from 1998 to 2000 despite making only a net gain of 1 seat at the 2001 general election. Ed Miliband too gained council seats from 2011 to 2014 at local elections despite only gaining 1% at the 2015 general election.

At least local Tories know locally next year is likely to be their lowest ebb, as 1996 was for Tory councillors in the dying years of the Major government and 2009 was for Labour councillors in the dying years of the Brown government. Even if nationally it is a much longer road back to power

The Conservative recovery began on May 1st 1997 when they regained a number of County Council seats lost in 1993. Surrey, for example, where the Conservatives had lost overall control in 1993, was regained.

As an example of current local collapse, the Horsleys Ward in Guildford was in 2017 won by the Conservatives with 54% of the vote. Last Thursday, at a by-election, they came third with 20%.

Yes and Horsleys is the type of seat that can be regained in opposition when the likely next Labour government starts to face a protest vote.

Albeit seats lost to the LDs normally take longer to regain as there is less protest vote against them unless they are also in government as with the Coalition

IF the GE isn't held until early 2025, it seems unlikely any incoming Labour Government will have exhausted its political honeymoon by May when the next round of County Council elections are scheduled.

If ot course Sunak goes for October 2024 and still loses, said County Council elections will be the first real test of the new Government's popularity.

In the 2011 local elections a year after losing power Labour gained 26 councils and 857 councillors.

Albeit the 2021 county council elections were the last set of local elections the Tories did well in which might cap their potential gains

Theuniondivvie

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:

In Argentina we have another one of those 'not like normal politicians' who people are liking because he 'tells it like it is', I understand.

Argentina needs a "not like normal" politician.

Argentina's "normal" politicians have been a disaster for a century.

Don’t cry for me ‘normal’ Argentinian politicians,
The truth is you were all pretty fucking abnormal

rcs1000

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, another excellent article from @Alanbrooke. And there's not a lot I can add.

Except perhaps for two things:

(1) I think there is a more innovative work going on in China that @Alanbrooke probably gives them credit for. The speed at which they have been able to replace Western/Taiwanese/Korean supply chains in the smartphone space being one area.

(2) As China population ages, and as the government needs to provide for its population, the less they will run massive trade surpluses, and the less room there is for China to throw their weight around economically. They are going to find themselves constrained in a way that just isn't the case right now.

Should I bring up Zeihan on Chinese Demographics again? Yes. yes, I think I should

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBMSZ7v3KxQ : New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse || Peter Zeihan
  
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MSV2bh48MA : Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse
  

Or, indeed, this excellent and underwatched video: https://youtu.be/OxUbPlR9HL8?si=Z1aacBWiK_iDAc4D

That's...quite good, thank you. I watched it. Some questions, not about the content

• i) Your channel in toto got about a million views, and I imagine your viewership would be quite well off. Did you manetise it and if so about how much did you get? My rule of thumb is about £20 per thousand views.
  
• ii) You did quite a professional in-person presentation, with green screen and professional appearance and good sound. Did you consider a presentation with just voice? Is the personal appearance necessary to build up a relationship with the audience, and would a faceless presentation be better or worse?
  
• iii) Other methods include animated (History Buffs), occasional cartoons (Dave Cullen), or AI generated (here, here). Do you have an opinion on which modality is best here?
  

Phew. Good questions.

The reality is that my channel was doing OK - not least because I was able to use PB to kick start videos, which mean that I'd get a couple of thousands views without trying.

But I was quite lonely making them. I also found that the videos that took off where the ones which were most controversial (How To End Illegal Immigration, 222k views).

And I had a really good idea for a new startup, so I did that instead.

If I sell Just, and go back to making videos, I think I might do it more as a proper business. But you need to get up 300k views (every) video if you're going to make it work. Of course, if you can get it up to 500k or 1m, then suddenly you're doing exceptionally well, but breaking out from 200k for one in ten videos, to 300k for every one is a big leap.

stodge

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

Fascinating. As HYUFD says (or implies) though, the Tories will start winning council elections off Labour and the Lib Dems before they recover nationally. Friday mornings won’t be so fun anymore.

Indeed, even William Hague started to make gains in council by elections and annual local elections from 1998 to 2000 despite making only a net gain of 1 seat at the 2001 general election. Ed Miliband too gained council seats from 2011 to 2014 at local elections despite only gaining 1% at the 2015 general election.

At least local Tories know locally next year is likely to be their lowest ebb, as 1996 was for Tory councillors in the dying years of the Major government and 2009 was for Labour councillors in the dying years of the Brown government. Even if nationally it is a much longer road back to power

The Conservative recovery began on May 1st 1997 when they regained a number of County Council seats lost in 1993. Surrey, for example, where the Conservatives had lost overall control in 1993, was regained.

As an example of current local collapse, the Horsleys Ward in Guildford was in 2017 won by the Conservatives with 54% of the vote. Last Thursday, at a by-election, they came third with 20%.

Yes and Horsleys is the type of seat that can be regained in opposition when the likely next Labour government starts to face a protest vote.

Albeit seats lost to the LDs normally take longer to regain as there is less protest vote against them unless they are also in government as with the Coalition

IF the GE isn't held until early 2025, it seems unlikely any incoming Labour Government will have exhausted its political honeymoon by May when the next round of County Council elections are scheduled.

If ot course Sunak goes for October 2024 and still loses, said County Council elections will be the first real test of the new Government's popularity.

In the 2011 local elections a year after losing power Labour gained 26 councils and 857 councillors.

Albeit the 2021 county council elections were the last set of local elections the Tories did well in which might cap their potential gains

In 2011 most of Labour's gains were from the LDs. The Conservatives made a net gain of 86 mostly from the LDs.

I'm not sure that's a good analogy for 2025 - indeed, as you assert, given how strong the 2021 results were for the Conservatives, it's not inconceivable they could have net losses.

Cookie

Question for pb.com's Scottish contingent (or anyone else, really): I'm hoping to go to Edinburgh on Friday for a day's tourism with the family. I'm driving down from Dunkeld, spending the day in Edinburgh, then carrying on home to Manchester. In order not to sit in traffic in Edinburgh for an hour or so at each end of the day, I thought I'd look at park and ride - surely there must be some station west of the city I can park at? First thought was Dalmeny, but from Google Earth that looks worryingly full/heavily restricted on the streets round about. Edinburgh Gateway and Edinburgh Park appear to have no parking anywhere near. There is a park and ride on the tram at Ingliston, but that appears to be a 45 minute tram ride, which strikes me (with five people) as as long and expensive a journey as just driving into the centre. Anyone have any tips?

EDIT: Appears the journey from Ingliston is actually 32 minutes - 45 minutes included a walk (presumably to the car park?) at the Ingliston end. But still. Seems a little suboptimal.

Leon

TimS said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

DoubleCarpet said:

Argentina

Polls close 10pm UK time - heading out shortly and back after polls close, so posting links a bit earlier than usual.

Note it's a modified two-round system for the presidency - to win in round 1, either finish top with above 45%, OR finish top with above 40% and be 10% clear of the next candidate, otherwise it's a runoff.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-argentina-election/

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/10/if-milei-meets-massa-second-round-all-bets-are-argentinas-election-and-countrys-future

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwupNXFI7-4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4e8Iw3Frf1A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cb12KmMMDJA

https://www.argentina.gob.ar/elecciones-2023

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/

Many thanks,

DC

I've not followed this election much, but it seems they have an historic opportunity to turn the page on the disastrous result of decades of Peronism. I hope they seize it, and it turns out well, and the new leader doesn't end up being just a self-aggrandising corrupt individual like Argentina is used to, or Trump etc

While the UK and Europe has its problems, Argentina is a living warning that things can get much worse. Its remarkable to think Argentina used to be one of the richest and most developed countries on the planet per capita.

I was reflecting on Argentina and it did occur to me that things could be a lot worse. It’s been an economic and political basket case for as long as I remember, but, being where it is (and the Falklands debacle aside) it’s far far away from genocide, ethnic cleansing, wars of conquest, terrorism, or any prospect of being wiped out in WW3. Even civil war or narco gangsterism of the sort suffered in Peru,
Mexico or Colombia.

I could imagine that being a maker of decent Malbec somewhere in the Andean foothills near Mendoza might be a decent life, notwithstanding the politico-economic carnage all around.

Very true

Buenos Aires is a dangerous toilet - like most large cities in LatAm. If you squint, after eight pisco sours, you can kinda see why it was called the Paris of the South - and ancient photos show a suave affluent place - but mostly that’s gone

However if you get away from BA Argentina is really quite agreeable despite its awful politics and economics. The sun shines. The little towns are pleasant and pretty safe. There is a basic prosperity in the vast fertile landscapes. The tropical north is lovely in its lushness. And the Malbec is amazing and cheap

Nigelb

Gaps in UK law allowing ‘jihad’ to be shouted were ‘known to government’
Britain’s ex-head of counter-terrorism says government failed to act on a recommendation to change legislation
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/22/gaps-in-uk-law-allowing-shouts-of-jihad-know-to-government

kle4

This is my kind of thread header. Data analysis is not everything, as James notes concil elections are not a perfect guide and personally I find politics to be a bit muzzier than analytics can account for, but it's useful information to add to the mix.

SeaShantyIrish2

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

williamglenn said:

FPT

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Nigelb said:

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

… While the president expressed deep understanding of Israel’s moral and strategic dilemma, he pleaded with Israeli military and political leaders to learn from America’s rush to war after Sept. 11, which took our troops deep into the dead ends and dark alleys of unfamiliar cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, from everything I have gleaned from senior U.S. officials, Biden failed to get Israel to hold back and think through all the implications of an invasion of Gaza for Israel and the United States. So let me put this in as stark and clear language as I can, because the hour is late:

I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests.

It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

I am talking about the Camp David peace treaty, the Oslo peace accords, the Abraham Accords and the possible normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The whole thing could go up in flames.

This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia...

That excerpt doesn't actually explain why it would be a terrible mistake, other than shattering various illusions.

I would argue that the danger for Israel is that there comes a time when it can no longer rely unconditionally on the support of the US.

Right now, Israel is a wealthy - but not exceptionally so - country on the banks of the Mediterrenan. It has an incredible military, with great training, but - while there is some indigenous production of planes and the like - it is highly dependent on US supply chains for some sensors and electronics.

The danger to Israel is that the Arab world gets equipped by China, while Israel can no longer able to rely on the West to supply it with the latest equipment.

That I would posit is the danger, unwritten as it is in the NYTimes article. The danger is that there cease to be many votes in backing Israel.

Does that imply that Friedman's real unstated fear is the effect of all this on US politics? Large parts of the American left seem to have fully bought into the idea that Israel is at its core an illegitimate 'settler-colonialist' state.

No.
Friedman's entire career was built around reporting on the region. Read his biography:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Friedman
And give him the credit he deserves for giving honest advice.

In 2000, Friedman championed Free Trade with The People's Republic of China, claiming that Free Trade would make China more democratic.[26]

... Friedman's column supporting Vladimir Putin as a modernizing reformer, in which he urged Americans to "keep rootin' for Putin"

We're all human and make mistakes.

Even cherry pickers?

Scott_xP

Cookie said:

EDIT: Appears the journey from Ingliston is actually 32 minutes - 45 minutes included a walk (presumably to the car park?) at the Ingliston end. But still. Seems a little suboptimal.

Depends if you value cost over stress. Park and ride guarantees you a space, at a known price, and does put your car on the right side of the city both in and out again (straight from Ingliston onto the bypass, head for Carlisle, job done)

And the 32 minutes on the tram is not unpleasant, and will drop you right on Princes Street

Leon

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

JohnLilburne

Nigelb said:

Gaps in UK law allowing ‘jihad’ to be shouted were ‘known to government’
Britain’s ex-head of counter-terrorism says government failed to act on a recommendation to change legislation
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/22/gaps-in-uk-law-allowing-shouts-of-jihad-know-to-government

Quite right too. People should be able to openly support terrorism too. It's called freedom of speech.

viewcode

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, another excellent article from @Alanbrooke. And there's not a lot I can add.

Except perhaps for two things:

(1) I think there is a more innovative work going on in China that @Alanbrooke probably gives them credit for. The speed at which they have been able to replace Western/Taiwanese/Korean supply chains in the smartphone space being one area.

(2) As China population ages, and as the government needs to provide for its population, the less they will run massive trade surpluses, and the less room there is for China to throw their weight around economically. They are going to find themselves constrained in a way that just isn't the case right now.

Should I bring up Zeihan on Chinese Demographics again? Yes. yes, I think I should

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBMSZ7v3KxQ : New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse || Peter Zeihan
  
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MSV2bh48MA : Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse
  

Or, indeed, this excellent and underwatched video: https://youtu.be/OxUbPlR9HL8?si=Z1aacBWiK_iDAc4D

That's...quite good, thank you. I watched it. Some questions, not about the content

• i) Your channel in toto got about a million views, and I imagine your viewership would be quite well off. Did you manetise it and if so about how much did you get? My rule of thumb is about £20 per thousand views.
  
• ii) You did quite a professional in-person presentation, with green screen and professional appearance and good sound. Did you consider a presentation with just voice? Is the personal appearance necessary to build up a relationship with the audience, and would a faceless presentation be better or worse?
  
• iii) Other methods include animated (History Buffs), occasional cartoons (Dave Cullen), or AI generated (here, here). Do you have an opinion on which modality is best here?
  

Phew. Good questions.

The reality is that my channel was doing OK - not least because I was able to use PB to kick start videos, which mean that I'd get a couple of thousands views without trying.

But I was quite lonely making them. I also found that the videos that took off where the ones which were most controversial (How To End Illegal Immigration, 222k views).

And I had a really good idea for a new startup, so I did that instead.

If I sell Just, and go back to making videos, I think I might do it more as a proper business. But you need to get up 300k views (every) video if you're going to make it work. Of course, if you can get it up to 500k or 1m, then suddenly you're doing exceptionally well, but breaking out from 200k for one in ten videos, to 300k for every one is a big leap.

Good answers, thank you.

kle4

Leon said:

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

I've never really understood the idea it is hard to cook. Probably hard to cook well, but I tend to just follow instructions and it usually works out pretty well, and the process itself is relaxing.

Leon

kle4 said:

Leon said:

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

I've never really understood the idea it is hard to cook. Probably hard to cook well, but I tend to just follow instructions and it usually works out pretty well, and the process itself is relaxing.

Absolutely

As for recipes - you can’t go wrong with Delia Smith, even now. Yes she’s ancient but her simple recipe style is a godsend to a beginner. Just do what she says. It will taste good

rcs1000

Leon said:

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

Couldn't agree more: cooking is a great life skill, saves you good money, means you eat better, and usually has a positive impact on your dating too.

YouTube also allows you to learn both skills and some simple recipes.

Cookie

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

EDIT: Appears the journey from Ingliston is actually 32 minutes - 45 minutes included a walk (presumably to the car park?) at the Ingliston end. But still. Seems a little suboptimal.

Depends if you value cost over stress. Park and ride guarantees you a space, at a known price, and does put your car on the right side of the city both in and out again (straight from Ingliston onto the bypass, head for Carlisle, job done)

And the 32 minutes on the tram is not unpleasant, and will drop you right on Princes Street

What would you do Scott? I'd likely be arriving in Edinburgh at about 10 - so after rush hour - but probably leaving about 4.30 ish.

Cookie

Leon said:

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

Leon

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

Couldn't agree more: cooking is a great life skill, saves you good money, means you eat better, and usually has a positive impact on your dating too.

YouTube also allows you to learn both skills and some simple recipes.

I love cooking - particularly for that relaxation at the end of the day. I love using my hands more than my brain. I like choosing a recipe and getting the ingredients. I like the way I descend into the evening and sleep better - and yes you know what you are eating and you know it is healthy and you save money

It’s got to the extent I would often rather cook for myself than eat in a restaurant even if the food is free

The only downside is that I’ve now reached a certain level - not brilliant, but pretty good - when I can cook as proficiently as a local restaurant or gastropub so I am much harder to impress, and I know when I’m being ripped off!

Scott_xP

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

EDIT: Appears the journey from Ingliston is actually 32 minutes - 45 minutes included a walk (presumably to the car park?) at the Ingliston end. But still. Seems a little suboptimal.

Depends if you value cost over stress. Park and ride guarantees you a space, at a known price, and does put your car on the right side of the city both in and out again (straight from Ingliston onto the bypass, head for Carlisle, job done)

And the 32 minutes on the tram is not unpleasant, and will drop you right on Princes Street

What would you do Scott? I'd likely be arriving in Edinburgh at about 10 - so after rush hour - but probably leaving about 4.30 ish.

I don't live there anymore, but I find driving into town when I'm back stressful now, and the relentless war on the motorist means there are fewer parking spaces in the city centre than there were in my day. Having taken the tram from the Gyle, I think that would be my preferred option.

Leon

Cookie said:

Leon said:

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

Microwave rice is amazing. I eat it all the time. I love Tilda whole grain and wild rice. It’s delicious and much better than I could make myself (with loads more faff)

It’s not a surprise that some convenience food is better. Frozen peas are the famous example. Tinned sardines or anchovies have a quality of their own. Bread from the baker is just convenience food - they’ve done all the cooking for you

Richard_Tyndall

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, another excellent article from @Alanbrooke. And there's not a lot I can add.

Except perhaps for two things:

(1) I think there is a more innovative work going on in China that @Alanbrooke probably gives them credit for. The speed at which they have been able to replace Western/Taiwanese/Korean supply chains in the smartphone space being one area.

(2) As China population ages, and as the government needs to provide for its population, the less they will run massive trade surpluses, and the less room there is for China to throw their weight around economically. They are going to find themselves constrained in a way that just isn't the case right now.

Should I bring up Zeihan on Chinese Demographics again? Yes. yes, I think I should

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBMSZ7v3KxQ : New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse || Peter Zeihan
  
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MSV2bh48MA : Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse
  

Or, indeed, this excellent and underwatched video: https://youtu.be/OxUbPlR9HL8?si=Z1aacBWiK_iDAc4D

That's...quite good, thank you. I watched it. Some questions, not about the content

• i) Your channel in toto got about a million views, and I imagine your viewership would be quite well off. Did you manetise it and if so about how much did you get? My rule of thumb is about £20 per thousand views.
  
• ii) You did quite a professional in-person presentation, with green screen and professional appearance and good sound. Did you consider a presentation with just voice? Is the personal appearance necessary to build up a relationship with the audience, and would a faceless presentation be better or worse?
  
• iii) Other methods include animated (History Buffs), occasional cartoons (Dave Cullen), or AI generated (here, here). Do you have an opinion on which modality is best here?
  

Phew. Good questions.

The reality is that my channel was doing OK - not least because I was able to use PB to kick start videos, which mean that I'd get a couple of thousands views without trying.

But I was quite lonely making them. I also found that the videos that took off where the ones which were most controversial (How To End Illegal Immigration, 222k views).

And I had a really good idea for a new startup, so I did that instead.

If I sell Just, and go back to making videos, I think I might do it more as a proper business. But you need to get up 300k views (every) video if you're going to make it work. Of course, if you can get it up to 500k or 1m, then suddenly you're doing exceptionally well, but breaking out from 200k for one in ten videos, to 300k for every one is a big leap.

I use your videos to help explain economics and all the current issues/possible solutions to my 16 year old son. So for that I heartily thank you.

Not sure he does though

Scott_xP

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

HYUFD

Nigelb said:

Gaps in UK law allowing ‘jihad’ to be shouted were ‘known to government’
Britain’s ex-head of counter-terrorism says government failed to act on a recommendation to change legislation
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/22/gaps-in-uk-law-allowing-shouts-of-jihad-know-to-government

The law forbids inciting terrorism, how shouting 'jihad' doesn't do that is beyond me?

You can be assured if someone in a far right crowd had shouted 'white power' the Met would have arrested them like a shot for inciting racial hatred!

Leon

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Cookie

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

EDIT: Appears the journey from Ingliston is actually 32 minutes - 45 minutes included a walk (presumably to the car park?) at the Ingliston end. But still. Seems a little suboptimal.

Depends if you value cost over stress. Park and ride guarantees you a space, at a known price, and does put your car on the right side of the city both in and out again (straight from Ingliston onto the bypass, head for Carlisle, job done)

And the 32 minutes on the tram is not unpleasant, and will drop you right on Princes Street

What would you do Scott? I'd likely be arriving in Edinburgh at about 10 - so after rush hour - but probably leaving about 4.30 ish.

I don't live there anymore, but I find driving into town when I'm back stressful now, and the relentless war on the motorist means there are fewer parking spaces in the city centre than there were in my day. Having taken the tram from the Gyle, I think that would be my preferred option.

That's how I felt last year - I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist. On which basis, I thought the P&R options would be a bit quicker. If they had put a P&R at Edinburgh Park or Edinburgh Gateway you could be in the city centre in ten minutes - there can't be many better locations for a P&R anywhere in the oountry. Odd they used Ingliston.

Malmesbury

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:

In Argentina we have another one of those 'not like normal politicians' who people are liking because he 'tells it like it is', I understand.

Argentina needs a "not like normal" politician.

Argentina's "normal" politicians have been a disaster for a century.

They’ve been a succession of “unlike the establishment, I’m on your side” populists. Who fuckup every single time.

ohnotnow

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Let me introduce you to the tiny rice cooker from Lakeland :

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B083CMMFHM/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Makes great rice and is barely the size of a 500g bag of... rice.

Scott_xP

Leon said:

Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch

EH?

I am struggling to imagine how you can fuck it up

Carnyx

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

EDIT: Appears the journey from Ingliston is actually 32 minutes - 45 minutes included a walk (presumably to the car park?) at the Ingliston end. But still. Seems a little suboptimal.

Depends if you value cost over stress. Park and ride guarantees you a space, at a known price, and does put your car on the right side of the city both in and out again (straight from Ingliston onto the bypass, head for Carlisle, job done)

And the 32 minutes on the tram is not unpleasant, and will drop you right on Princes Street

What would you do Scott? I'd likely be arriving in Edinburgh at about 10 - so after rush hour - but probably leaving about 4.30 ish.

I don't live there anymore, but I find driving into town when I'm back stressful now, and the relentless war on the motorist means there are fewer parking spaces in the city centre than there were in my day. Having taken the tram from the Gyle, I think that would be my preferred option.

That's how I felt last year - I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist. On which basis, I thought the P&R options would be a bit quicker. If they had put a P&R at Edinburgh Park or Edinburgh Gateway you could be in the city centre in ten minutes - there can't be many better locations for a P&R anywhere in the oountry. Odd they used Ingliston.

Don't let the present pro-motorist hysteria fool you. Edinburgh was always miserable to find parking in the centre for long periods - and I'm talking 30+ years ago.

There are several P&Rs. For instance one on Straiton, more or less on the south side, with direct buses actually at the car park.

https://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/parkandride

Scott_xP

Cookie said:

I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist.

A policy the council have pursued with relentless zeal ever since the days of Alistair Darling (remember him?)

Beibheirli_C

Malmesbury said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:

In Argentina we have another one of those 'not like normal politicians' who people are liking because he 'tells it like it is', I understand.

Argentina needs a "not like normal" politician.

Argentina's "normal" politicians have been a disaster for a century.

They’ve been a succession of “unlike the establishment, I’m on your side” populists. Who fuckup every single time.

Because populists attract ne'er-do-wells, incompetents, sycophants and yes-men who flatter their egos and overlook their excesses whilst the demagogue in chief feathers their nests and throws bungs around.

Any electorate that votes for these numbskulls gets what it deserves. Trump and Boris should be example enough to act as a warning.

Barnesian

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

One cup of rice to one and a half cups of water. Add salt and a knob of butter to keep the grains apart. Bring to the boil and then simmer for 12 minutes without stirring. Then check and fluff it up. Eat. Don't wash or drain or you'll lose the goodness.

Malmesbury

HYUFD said:

Nigelb said:

Gaps in UK law allowing ‘jihad’ to be shouted were ‘known to government’
Britain’s ex-head of counter-terrorism says government failed to act on a recommendation to change legislation
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/22/gaps-in-uk-law-allowing-shouts-of-jihad-know-to-government

The law forbids inciting terrorism, how shouting 'jihad' doesn't do that is beyond me?

You can be assured if someone in a far right crowd had shouted 'white power' the Met would have arrested them like a shot for inciting racial hatred!

The temptation to organise a march, shouting “Crusade, Crusade”

That is fine surely, since it *can* mean a quietly contemplative attempt to improve society. As opposed to slaughtering the Heathan…

Cookie

Scott_xP said:

Leon said:

Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch

EH?

I am struggling to imagine how you can fuck it up

It never comes out quite as good, for me. Either just too hard or just too soggy. And always - always - the wrong quantity.
I'm ok at cooking. But my rice is always slightly disappointing.

Leon

Scott_xP said:

Leon said:

Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch

EH?

I am struggling to imagine how you can fuck it up

The starch, the starch

Getting that perfect fluffiness is a skill. And if I can get perfect fluffy rice from microwave Tilda basmati whole grain and wild rice in 120 seconds I’m afraid that yes, I will choose the latter

It’s all about balance between effort and reward. I love to make laksa but I’m damned if I’m gonna make laksa from scratch - pounding the galangal etc. I buy a really good base and tart it up with fresh ingredients and it’s delicious. I don’t want to spend more than 30-40 minutes cooking, max, otherwise it does become a chore

Of course this is different if you are cooking for lots of friends or you are doing a slow cook meal you can simply leave in the oven

Carnyx

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist.

A policy the council have pursued with relentless zeal ever since the days of Alistair Darling (remember him?)

Nonsense. Was always inherent in the physical geography of the place.

Leon

ohnotnow said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Let me introduce you to the tiny rice cooker from Lakeland :

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B083CMMFHM/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Makes great rice and is barely the size of a 500g bag of... rice.

Yeah no I’m not gonna buy a rice cooker. I might have done if they hadn’t perfected microwave rice. But they have

Malmesbury

Beibheirli_C said:

Malmesbury said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:

In Argentina we have another one of those 'not like normal politicians' who people are liking because he 'tells it like it is', I understand.

Argentina needs a "not like normal" politician.

Argentina's "normal" politicians have been a disaster for a century.

They’ve been a succession of “unlike the establishment, I’m on your side” populists. Who fuckup every single time.

Because populists attract ne'er-do-wells, incompetents, sycophants and yes-men who flatter their egos and overlook their excesses whilst the demagogue in chief feathers their nests and throws bungs around.

Any electorate that votes for these numbskulls gets what it deserves. Trump and Boris should be example enough to act as a warning.

Argentina *dreams* of getting politicians of the levels of honesty, and commitment to democracy and rule of law of Trump.

Seriously, he’d be an improvement.

ohnotnow

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, another excellent article from @Alanbrooke. And there's not a lot I can add.

Except perhaps for two things:

(1) I think there is a more innovative work going on in China that @Alanbrooke probably gives them credit for. The speed at which they have been able to replace Western/Taiwanese/Korean supply chains in the smartphone space being one area.

(2) As China population ages, and as the government needs to provide for its population, the less they will run massive trade surpluses, and the less room there is for China to throw their weight around economically. They are going to find themselves constrained in a way that just isn't the case right now.

Should I bring up Zeihan on Chinese Demographics again? Yes. yes, I think I should

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBMSZ7v3KxQ : New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse || Peter Zeihan
  
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MSV2bh48MA : Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse
  

Or, indeed, this excellent and underwatched video: https://youtu.be/OxUbPlR9HL8?si=Z1aacBWiK_iDAc4D

That's...quite good, thank you. I watched it. Some questions, not about the content

• i) Your channel in toto got about a million views, and I imagine your viewership would be quite well off. Did you manetise it and if so about how much did you get? My rule of thumb is about £20 per thousand views.
  
• ii) You did quite a professional in-person presentation, with green screen and professional appearance and good sound. Did you consider a presentation with just voice? Is the personal appearance necessary to build up a relationship with the audience, and would a faceless presentation be better or worse?
  
• iii) Other methods include animated (History Buffs), occasional cartoons (Dave Cullen), or AI generated (here, here). Do you have an opinion on which modality is best here?
  

Phew. Good questions.

The reality is that my channel was doing OK - not least because I was able to use PB to kick start videos, which mean that I'd get a couple of thousands views without trying.

But I was quite lonely making them. I also found that the videos that took off where the ones which were most controversial (How To End Illegal Immigration, 222k views).

And I had a really good idea for a new startup, so I did that instead.

If I sell Just, and go back to making videos, I think I might do it more as a proper business. But you need to get up 300k views (every) video if you're going to make it work. Of course, if you can get it up to 500k or 1m, then suddenly you're doing exceptionally well, but breaking out from 200k for one in ten videos, to 300k for every one is a big leap.

A friend of mine works in the 'digital marketing' space. The byzantine rules of youtube, tiktok etc make my head spin. "If the viewer bails out after N seconds, then 1000 demerits. If the viewer watches > 2/3rd of your video then....." etc etc.

Scott_xP

Barnesian said:

One cup of rice to one and a half cups of water. Add salt and a knob of butter to keep the grains apart. Bring to the boil and then simmer for 12 minutes. Eat. Don't wash or drain or you'll lose the goodness.

Cookie said:

It never comes out quite as good, for me. Either just too hard or just too soggy. And always - always - the wrong quantity.

And there is the key. Measure the quantity for perfect results

SandyRentool

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

For the perfect basmati:

Step 1 - find Indian partner.

Step 2 - let her cook the rice.

Works for me!

Starry

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

EDIT: Appears the journey from Ingliston is actually 32 minutes - 45 minutes included a walk (presumably to the car park?) at the Ingliston end. But still. Seems a little suboptimal.

Depends if you value cost over stress. Park and ride guarantees you a space, at a known price, and does put your car on the right side of the city both in and out again (straight from Ingliston onto the bypass, head for Carlisle, job done)

And the 32 minutes on the tram is not unpleasant, and will drop you right on Princes Street

What would you do Scott? I'd likely be arriving in Edinburgh at about 10 - so after rush hour - but probably leaving about 4.30 ish.

I don't live there anymore, but I find driving into town when I'm back stressful now, and the relentless war on the motorist means there are fewer parking spaces in the city centre than there were in my day. Having taken the tram from the Gyle, I think that would be my preferred option.

Or park in either Linlithgow or Edinburgh Park, then take a train in. Quicker than the tram, even though they're both further out and to the west. Lithgae is lovely too.

ohnotnow

Leon said:

ohnotnow said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Let me introduce you to the tiny rice cooker from Lakeland :

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B083CMMFHM/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Makes great rice and is barely the size of a 500g bag of... rice.

Yeah no I’m not gonna buy a rice cooker. I might have done if they hadn’t perfected microwave rice. But they have

It's really significantly better. Give it a second thought.

nico679

Sky News reporting that some Hamas had papers on them related to how to make chemical weapons . This is according to the President of Israel .

These sorts of papers are available on the internet and not meaning to be over cynical but did the fighters expect to be able to find the ingredients and cobble together a weapon whilst on their rampage and meanwhile repelling the IDF .

Scott_xP

Carnyx said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist.

A policy the council have pursued with relentless zeal ever since the days of Alistair Darling (remember him?)

Nonsense. Was always inherent in the physical geography of the place.

There was a time you could drive into town, park on George Street, visit the shops and drive home.

Trainspotting features cars driving on Princes Street!!!

None of that geography changed, just the policies...

Sandpit

ohnotnow said:

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

rcs1000 said:

On topic, another excellent article from @Alanbrooke. And there's not a lot I can add.

Except perhaps for two things:

(1) I think there is a more innovative work going on in China that @Alanbrooke probably gives them credit for. The speed at which they have been able to replace Western/Taiwanese/Korean supply chains in the smartphone space being one area.

(2) As China population ages, and as the government needs to provide for its population, the less they will run massive trade surpluses, and the less room there is for China to throw their weight around economically. They are going to find themselves constrained in a way that just isn't the case right now.

Should I bring up Zeihan on Chinese Demographics again? Yes. yes, I think I should

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBMSZ7v3KxQ : New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse || Peter Zeihan
  
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MSV2bh48MA : Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse
  

Or, indeed, this excellent and underwatched video: https://youtu.be/OxUbPlR9HL8?si=Z1aacBWiK_iDAc4D

That's...quite good, thank you. I watched it. Some questions, not about the content

• i) Your channel in toto got about a million views, and I imagine your viewership would be quite well off. Did you manetise it and if so about how much did you get? My rule of thumb is about £20 per thousand views.
  
• ii) You did quite a professional in-person presentation, with green screen and professional appearance and good sound. Did you consider a presentation with just voice? Is the personal appearance necessary to build up a relationship with the audience, and would a faceless presentation be better or worse?
  
• iii) Other methods include animated (History Buffs), occasional cartoons (Dave Cullen), or AI generated (here, here). Do you have an opinion on which modality is best here?
  

Phew. Good questions.

The reality is that my channel was doing OK - not least because I was able to use PB to kick start videos, which mean that I'd get a couple of thousands views without trying.

But I was quite lonely making them. I also found that the videos that took off where the ones which were most controversial (How To End Illegal Immigration, 222k views).

And I had a really good idea for a new startup, so I did that instead.

If I sell Just, and go back to making videos, I think I might do it more as a proper business. But you need to get up 300k views (every) video if you're going to make it work. Of course, if you can get it up to 500k or 1m, then suddenly you're doing exceptionally well, but breaking out from 200k for one in ten videos, to 300k for every one is a big leap.

A friend of mine works in the 'digital marketing' space. The byzantine rules of youtube, tiktok etc make my head spin. "If the viewer bails out after N seconds, then 1000 demerits. If the viewer watches > 2/3rd of your video then....." etc etc.

YouTube have started totally screwing creators in the past few months.

Discussion about a video with 250k views earning $1500 in revenue. https://youtube.com/watch?v=j7b4l0_JjGY&t=6314s

Carnyx

Scott_xP said:

Carnyx said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist.

A policy the council have pursued with relentless zeal ever since the days of Alistair Darling (remember him?)

Nonsense. Was always inherent in the physical geography of the place.

There was a time you could drive into town, park on George Street, visit the shops and drive home.

Trainspotting features cars driving on Princes Street!!!

None of that geography changed, just the policies...

There are a *lot* more cars now than there used to be. That's the problem.

geoffw

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist.

A policy the council have pursued with relentless zeal ever since the days of Alistair Darling (remember him?)

AD lives not far from me. He's a UK national politician, not much involvement with the council. Shouldn't be tarred with that brush. But yes, the council has it in for car drivers in Edinburgh - traffic calming they call it

Theuniondivvie

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Non stick sauce pan with lid, heat a dab of veg oil then drop in a cupful of Basmati with salt, when rice is popping slightly pour in 2 cups of boiling water, turn heat right down, leave with lid on for 15ish minutes, perfect rice.

Beibheirli_C

Leon said:

Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch

Seriously?

Get a 60ml measure (¼ of a metric cup) and scoop out one measure per person of dry rice.

Put in a pot and completely cover with water. Stir all the rice for 30 seconds. Leave for 2 mins.

Pour the milky water away. Rinse with clean water and pour it away.

For every scoop of rice you put in, put 1½ scoops of water in the pot, so for two people, two scoops of rice and 3 of water.

Heat until it boils. Put a lid on the pot. Turn off the heat.

Leave for 30 mins. DO NOT REMOVE THE LID because the pot is acting like a steamer.

After 30 mins, remove the lid and serve. It might need fluffing with a spoon or fork, but that is rice for you.

Cookie

Scott_xP said:

Carnyx said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist.

A policy the council have pursued with relentless zeal ever since the days of Alistair Darling (remember him?)

Nonsense. Was always inherent in the physical geography of the place.

There was a time you could drive into town, park on George Street, visit the shops and drive home.

Trainspotting features cars driving on Princes Street!!!

None of that geography changed, just the policies...

I don"t, by the way,demand to be able to drive into the centre of Edinburgh. I just think P&R should be rather quicker than 32 minutes for a 6 mile journey.

Scott_xP

geoffw said:

AD lives not far from me. He's a UK national politician, not much involvement with the council. Shouldn't be tarred with that brush. But yes, the council has it in for car drivers in Edinburgh - traffic calming they call it

Before he was elected as an MP, he was local councillor in Edinburgh

Leon

ohnotnow said:

Leon said:

ohnotnow said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Let me introduce you to the tiny rice cooker from Lakeland :

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B083CMMFHM/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Makes great rice and is barely the size of a 500g bag of... rice.

Yeah no I’m not gonna buy a rice cooker. I might have done if they hadn’t perfected microwave rice. But they have

It's really significantly better. Give it a second thought.

I simply don’t believe it. I’ve eaten a lot of rice. Microwave rice - by Tilda - is as good as you get in a restaurant. And it takes 2 minutes. Case closed

geoffw

Barnesian said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

One cup of rice to one and a half cups of water. Add salt and a knob of butter to keep the grains apart. Bring to the boil and then simmer for 12 minutes without stirring. Then check and fluff it up. Eat. Don't wash or drain or you'll lose the goodness.

Wash the rice first in running water if you want to keep the cooked grains separate

tlg86

An excellent thread, thank you James.

Leon

Beibheirli_C said:

Leon said:

Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch

Seriously?

Get a 60ml measure (¼ of a metric cup) and scoop out one measure per person of dry rice.

Put in a pot and completely cover with water. Stir all the rice for 30 seconds. Leave for 2 mins.

Pour the milky water away. Rinse with clean water and pour it away.

For every scoop of rice you put in, put 1½ scoops of water in the pot, so for two people, two scoops of rice and 3 of water.

Heat until it boils. Put a lid on the pot. Turn off the heat.

Leave for 30 mins. DO NOT REMOVE THE LID because the pot is acting like a steamer.

After 30 mins, remove the lid and serve. It might need fluffing with a spoon or fork, but that is rice for you.

I mean, lol

I find it hard to believe people are still doing this. Given how good microwave rice is - which takes TWO MINUTES and is perfect every time. And I can get whole grain basmati with wild rice for crunch. But bravo

Benpointer

Leon said:

ohnotnow said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Let me introduce you to the tiny rice cooker from Lakeland :

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B083CMMFHM/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Makes great rice and is barely the size of a 500g bag of... rice.

Yeah no I’m not gonna buy a rice cooker. I might have done if they hadn’t perfected microwave rice. But they have

Microwave rice is an abomination and should be used as a signifier of poor taste.

Carnyx

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Carnyx said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist.

A policy the council have pursued with relentless zeal ever since the days of Alistair Darling (remember him?)

Nonsense. Was always inherent in the physical geography of the place.

There was a time you could drive into town, park on George Street, visit the shops and drive home.

Trainspotting features cars driving on Princes Street!!!

None of that geography changed, just the policies...

I don"t, by the way,demand to be able to drive into the centre of Edinburgh. I just think P&R should be rather quicker than 32 minutes for a 6 mile journey.

Er, you're forgetting the time wasted trying to find a parking space in the centre of the city, and the distance from there to where you actually want to go. Makes a hell of a difference.

darkage

Cookie said:

Leon said:

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

Yeah I can cook, that is not the issue. Not brilliantly well but ok. I've just always found rice to be a pain particularly for one person. Like you say the microwaveable packet rice (Tilda in this case) is better than cooking it properly. I would never have thought that would be possible.

NickPalmer

Another well-researched article - many thanks, James. Also worth noting the strong Green performance at locals - they often benefit from an informal alliance with the LIb Dems, and are similarly perceived (often wrongly) to be centrists.

Scott_xP

darkage said:

Like you say the microwaveable packet rice (Tilda in this case) is better than cooking it properly. I would never have thought that would be possible.

It's not

ohnotnow

Leon said:

ohnotnow said:

Leon said:

ohnotnow said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

No

Buy decent basmati rice and cook it in boiling salted water. Dry it at the end if you like. Guaranteed better than packet

But it isn’t. I’ve tried both. Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch - whereas microwave rice is now reliably excellent

I’m sure if I invested in a proper dedicated rice cooker and all that… but I haven’t got room and I can’t be arsed

Another surprisingly good convenience food is microwave mussels. I add some chopped garlic and parsley and they are genuinely nice. Not as good as you’d get from a good seafood restaurant but totally acceptable if you were eating them in a shack by a beach

Let me introduce you to the tiny rice cooker from Lakeland :

https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B083CMMFHM/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Makes great rice and is barely the size of a 500g bag of... rice.

Yeah no I’m not gonna buy a rice cooker. I might have done if they hadn’t perfected microwave rice. But they have

It's really significantly better. Give it a second thought.

I simply don’t believe it. I’ve eaten a lot of rice. Microwave rice - by Tilda - is as good as you get in a restaurant. And it takes 2 minutes. Case closed

:: sad trombone sounds ::

Leon

darkage said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

darkage said:

Off topic.
I have been cooking a lot for myself recently and have struggled with how poor quality food is, particularly any kind of instant meal.
Bit I have just discovered instant rice. The quality is better than rice I can boil and you don't need to wash up. As such, many meals become possible to cook for yourself in the matter of a few minutes.

Perhaps learn to cook? It honestly isn’t hard and it can be very relaxing

There are lots of lovely meals you can whip up in 20-30 minutes. Nutritious and delicious and really simple enough that you can chug a beer or drink some wine and listen to music as you do it

It becomes a definite pleasure. Not a chore. And the benefits to your mental and physical health are significant

Darkage is bang on about packet rice though. 90% of the time much better quality. Odd for a convenience food to be better than what you'd get if you took the time to do it the long way.

Yeah I can cook, that is not the issue. Not brilliantly well but ok. I've just always found rice to be a pain particularly for one person. Like you say the microwaveable packet rice (Tilda in this case) is better than cooking it properly. I would never have thought that would be possible.

Yes. It’s a revelation when you try it. I was deeply suspicious but a foodie friend of mine said Try it, you won’t believe it, you’ll never cook rice “properly” again

I tried it. And he was right. And I’ve never cooked rice “properly” since

I suspect half the Remoaner Rice Snobs on here have never even tried the beautiful British Leaver-Tilda microwave variety

geoffw

On rice, Richard Nabavi pointed us towards Persian "chelo" rice some years ago. Chelo is a way of cooking it, slightly tricky but it has a delicious crust (tahdig).
https://www.bbcgoodfood.com/recipes/persian-basmati-rice-chelo-tahdig

Beibheirli_C

Leon said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Leon said:

Cooking proper rice is really hard, from scratch

Seriously?

Get a 60ml measure (¼ of a metric cup) and scoop out one measure per person of dry rice.

Put in a pot and completely cover with water. Stir all the rice for 30 seconds. Leave for 2 mins.

Pour the milky water away. Rinse with clean water and pour it away.

For every scoop of rice you put in, put 1½ scoops of water in the pot, so for two people, two scoops of rice and 3 of water.

Heat until it boils. Put a lid on the pot. Turn off the heat.

Leave for 30 mins. DO NOT REMOVE THE LID because the pot is acting like a steamer.

After 30 mins, remove the lid and serve. It might need fluffing with a spoon or fork, but that is rice for you.

I mean, lol

I find it hard to believe people are still doing this. Given how good microwave rice is - which takes TWO MINUTES and is perfect every time. And I can get whole grain basmati with wild rice for crunch. But bravo

What is hard about it? It takes 10 seconds to measure out the rice and a minute to rinse it and then get it to boiling. I then leave it alone whilst I get other things ready then I have perfect rice with dinner.

I put in 1 minute of effort.

To make really fluffy rice, let it soak for 2 hours before you cook it, but I do not stand around and wait. I let it do its thing while I have other stuff to do.

Cookie

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Carnyx said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:

I've rarely beem to a city where I've felt so unwelcome as a motorist.

A policy the council have pursued with relentless zeal ever since the days of Alistair Darling (remember him?)

Nonsense. Was always inherent in the physical geography of the place.

There was a time you could drive into town, park on George Street, visit the shops and drive home.

Trainspotting features cars driving on Princes Street!!!

None of that geography changed, just the policies...

I don"t, by the way,demand to be able to drive into the centre of Edinburgh. I just think P&R should be rather quicker than 32 minutes for a 6 mile journey.

Er, you're forgetting the time wasted trying to find a parking space in the centre of the city, and the distance from there to where you actually want to go. Makes a hell of a difference.

Oh, sure. Public transport ought to be the better option, and indeed probably is. But it just strikes me as perverse that the P&R options are (slow) tram or bus when there was tge possibility of a fast and direct train from almost but not exavtly tge same place.