It’s interesting to hear all of these center-leaning Republicans voting for Jordan, especially after the Aguilar speech that branded him as the instigator of an insurrection and the architect of a national abortion ban. This vote is giving fodder to those who like to say there are no moderate Republicans left in Congress.
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
WW3? Against whom, give me a break.
Iran is not a WW3 style enemy. Russia is so embedded in Ukraine it won't join in directly - and equally wouldn't want America taking the gloves off to intervene directly in Ukraine. China isn't getting involved.
As Leon says, when you see these dogs you will know. F&&king huge. Built like cast granite. I am a dog person all the way through but dear god these things are unnatural. I would have no qualms with having them put down. Not their fault they came into existence but we would be better off without them.
Could you take one down, Topping, do you think? If you had to.
You obviously haven't seen one close up as I mentioned a few days ago they are huge and no human would be able to "take one down".
Thing is, though, unlike you if I "had to" I'd try.
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
That's why the carrier groups are being sent.
The idea that a couple of thousand non combatant soldiers, minus the medics, will make a significant difference is nonsense.
It's quite possible that some will be used to police the crossing with Egypt in order to facilitate the movement of aid supplies into southern Gaza (and the evacuation of dual nationals). Israel is blocking its opening, as they don't trust Egypt to prevent weapons being smuggled in.
...His 32-year-old mother was stabbed a dozen times while trying to protect her son and call for help, police said. She was still recovering at the hospital while mourners gathered for her son's funeral at the Mosque Foundation in suburban Bridgeview.
Czuba was screaming "you Muslims have to die" when he barged into the ground-floor apartment the mother and son shared in suburban Plainfield, family friend Yousef Hannon told NBC News before the funeral, citing texts she sent to the boy's father. Hannon said Czuba also shouted: "You are killing our kids in Israel. You Palestinians don’t deserve to live."
Shaheen "didn't have even one percent suspicion he would hurt the child" because Czuba had been like a grandfather to Wadea and even built him a tree house, Hannon said.
"The child, when he saw Czuba, ran to him for a hug and instead was stabbed 26 times," Hannon said ..
Sadly reminds me somewhat of the Rwandan Genocide and Hutu vs Tutsi; some reported that neighbours they had been on friendly terms with for a lifetime suddenly turned.
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
WW3? Against whom, give me a break.
Iran is not a WW3 style enemy. Russia is so embedded in Ukraine it won't join in directly - and equally wouldn't want America taking the gloves off to intervene directly in Ukraine. China isn't getting involved.
The Arab world would not make WW3.
All I can say is Thank God you are directing the western war effort from your base in Warrington, with your typical lucidity you are able to wave away the cavils and doubts of lesser men
1. All dogs must be insured by their owners 2. Any uninsured dog may be taken and destroyed by the authorities 3. The owners of any uninsured dog will be fined.
There y'go. You don't do the paperwork. You make somebody else do it and if they don't you kill the dog.
And certain breeds - Bully XL, Chihuahuas - would be effectively uninsurable.
Honestly, when you see one of these disgusting dogs, you immediately understand what all the fuss is about
As I have said, I saw my first version last night, on Camden High Street. The owner, a little guy of about 5 foot 5 was struggling to get his excitable dog in his crap car. The dog was almost as big as him, and if it ever turned on him it would chew him up in seconds
They just look evil, even if they are happy and tail-wagging. Because they are bred to be super aggessive and intimidating, and brutally dangerous, that's the whole point of them
Nothing can change that. You can't put a dress on a shark and make it friendly
It's difficult to escape the conclusion that most of the owners of these dogs are inadequate people who are using them to try to boost their self esteem in some weird way.
Yes
The only owners I feel remotely sorry for are genuinely vulnerable people - single mums on council estates, young women in dodgy areas, old people - who really do feel a need for protection. But there are still plenty of big dogs you CAN buy which will be a challenge to a burglar/robber - a German Shepherd or a Rotweiler will scare almost anyone, but those dogs are not bred to be psychotic and homicidal and too powerful to handle, they are not Bully XLs
All the other owners are apparently twats or inadequates. Drug dealers. Etc
My grandparents had a German Shepherd which had to be put down because got out it scared an old lady. No-one should get any of these 'guardian' class dogs unless they are prepared to put a lot of time and money into training it. The role is like that of a policeman, erring in either direction due to inadequate training has bad consequences. But really any dog needs to be trained - even a non-guardian high energy dog is going to cause problems if its owners expect it to be like an appliance that has a set behavior regardless of how you interact with it.
Watch a few episodes of Cesar Millan's 'Dog Whisperer' or any similar show, and you will see plenty of loving but ignorant owners who have got themselves into serious difficulties with a wide variety of breeds.
Personally I would ban all pets. Full stop. It's cruel and selfish. Living creatures kept in some kind of servitude for our amusement, and fucking up the environment and killing all the wildlife as a by product. I think pet owners - especially of dogs and cats - are self indulgent wankers. I'm fine with working animals
However I accept this is something of a niche position and I do not intend to stand for parliament on this manifesto
We can, nonetheless, do baby steps. Banning Bully XLs is one of those
I like cats and dogs, they're good companions for lonely people, my neighbour's cats had free run of my place, and their company got me through lockdown, brightening up many a sad afternoon.
Quite why people keep other animals as pets though, is incomprehensible. Hamsters? You want to share your home wit a small rodent? Rabbits? They're dinner, not pets. And I once dated a girl who was, alas, very keen to take me home and show me her snake. And that is not a euphemism. I cannot understand what drives people to collect these creatures.
I'm not bothered about other types of pet. Just ban the XL bully.
I often wondered about the panic that would ensure if that snake ever got loose. Then I realise that we lived in London, and it would have quickly found a job in finance.
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
I think not.
Russia is bogged down in the Ukraine and is no friend of Islamic fundamentalism. China is too busy making money to make trouble in the region - everyone is determined to keep oil flowing and the price of oil stable (the memory of 1973 will see to that).
Syria is too weak and Egypt is resolutely trying not to get involved. A direct Iran-Israel confrontation is possible but there will only be one winner and while it is a nuclear power, America will remind Israel of the consequences of using any nuclear weapons. I'd argue October 1973 was much more dangerous.
The main risk for the West is an interruption to or a spike in oil prices which would push economies into recession if not worse. There is a secondary risk of a diaspora of Gazan refugees hence, I suspect, a lot of pressure now on Israel not to level Gaza but to systematically take out the Hamas leadership with as little collateral damage as possible.
That may not be what Israel wants or vengeance mandates but there's a realpolitik at work here.
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
Israel's military is far more effective and stronger than Russia and S Vietnam's and Israel also almost certainly has nuclear weapons for its own defence if needed
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
That's why the carrier groups are being sent.
The idea that a couple of thousand non combatant soldiers, minus the medics, will make a significant difference is nonsense.
It's quite possible that some will be used to police the crossing with Egypt in order to facilitate the movement of aid supplies into southern Gaza (and the evacuation of dual nationals). Israel is blocking its opening, as they don't trust Egypt to prevent weapons being smuggled in.
Maybe you don't understand the process of escalation
Let's say these US troops, as you actually suggest, disembark in Gaza to help with the "policing". Now they are a big fat juicy target for anyone that hates America, and they are right there, in Gaza
Maybe some bombers get through and kill 900 of them. With 900 American soldiers dead, America is bound to respond. It will reinforce these troops with many more troops, and go after the attacker. That could be Iran. Now you have maybe 10,000 American troops in Gaza and a direct confrontaiton with Iran
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
WW3? Against whom, give me a break.
Iran is not a WW3 style enemy. Russia is so embedded in Ukraine it won't join in directly - and equally wouldn't want America taking the gloves off to intervene directly in Ukraine. China isn't getting involved.
The Arab world would not make WW3.
All I can say is Thank God you are directing the western war effort from your base in Warrington, with your typical lucidity you are able to wave away the cavils and doubts of lesser men
I’m with Bart on this. Other things might provoke WW3 but not the old Israel-Palestine issue.
Only a few years ago we had ISIS controlling vast swathes of Syria and Iraq, Kurdish forces being supported by NATO close to the border while Turkey fought them on the ground, and both Russia and the US in the air bombing militants plus, on at least one occasion, each other.
I think the (sad) normality of war and factional violence in the Levant actually makes wider escalation less rather than more likely. It’s not abnormal enough for anyone to feel too threatened other than the regional players.
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
Yes, China is just waiting for the right moment to invade Taiwan.
The Taiwanese won't lie down without a fight either, certainly thousands of Chinese would be killed too in such an invasion, potentially hundreds of thousands and they would also have to maintain occupation and defeat resistance
now about halfway through alphabet, or thereabouts . . . and number of Republicans NOT voting for Jim "Jockstrap" Jordan = 9
NYT live blog: So far among the defectors, we're seeing two groups emerge: McCarthy and Scalise allies — so establishment types -— and the 18 House Republicans who represent districts Biden won in 2020.
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
That's why the carrier groups are being sent.
The idea that a couple of thousand non combatant soldiers, minus the medics, will make a significant difference is nonsense.
It's quite possible that some will be used to police the crossing with Egypt in order to facilitate the movement of aid supplies into southern Gaza (and the evacuation of dual nationals). Israel is blocking its opening, as they don't trust Egypt to prevent weapons being smuggled in.
Maybe you don't understand the process of escalation
Let's say these US troops, as you actually suggest, disembark in Gaza to help with the "policing". Now they are a big fat juicy target for anyone that hates America, and they are right there, in Gaza
Maybe some bombers get through and kill 900 of them. With 900 American soldiers dead, America is bound to respond. It will reinforce these troops with many more troops, and go after the attacker. That could be Iran. Now you have maybe 10,000 American troops in Gaza and a direct confrontaiton with Iran
And thus it unfurls, onwards, ever onwards
Even a direct war with Iran isn’t WW3 anymore than direct war with Iraq was. Russia can’t come to its aid, and China won’t.
The WW3 risk (or at least extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere war 3) to my mind remains Russian escalation in Ukraine. China-Taiwan doesn’t feel world warry. Too many non-aligned and disinterested parties.
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
Israel's military is far more effective and stronger than Russia and S Vietnam's and Israel also almost certainly has nuclear weapons for its own defence if needed
The defence correspondents of both the Times and the Telegraph are now reporting that the Israelis are deeply worried about a two or three front war, with - eg - a barrage of missiles from Lebanon that they might not be able to resist. Hence, perhaps, the strange delay in the invasion - hitherto blamed on weather, and now on Biden's visit
They are in a terrible dilemma. Do they go in and risk the wrath of the world, and even a potential and atrocious reversal? Or do they do nothing, apart from bombings and assassinations, and allow Hamas to "get away with it"?
now about halfway through alphabet, or thereabouts . . . and number of Republicans NOT voting for Jim "Jockstrap" Jordan = 9
NYT live blog: So far among the defectors, we're seeing two groups emerge: McCarthy and Scalise allies — so establishment types -— and the 18 House Republicans who represent districts Biden won in 2020.
How many need to peel off from Jordon to stop him?
now about halfway through alphabet, or thereabouts . . . and number of Republicans NOT voting for Jim "Jockstrap" Jordan = 9
NYT live blog: So far among the defectors, we're seeing two groups emerge: McCarthy and Scalise allies — so establishment types -— and the 18 House Republicans who represent districts Biden won in 2020.
now about halfway through alphabet, or thereabouts . . . and number of Republicans NOT voting for Jim "Jockstrap" Jordan = 9
I assume he will get it eventually, since they have to elect someone at some point and having made their point what is gained by going on when they have no alternative?
But the hypocrisy has been off the charts even for Congress. How dare people stand in the way of the GOP nominee for Speaker...when dozens of them refused to support the nominee when it was the one they didn't want just last week?
As Leon says, when you see these dogs you will know. F&&king huge. Built like cast granite. I am a dog person all the way through but dear god these things are unnatural. I would have no qualms with having them put down. Not their fault they came into existence but we would be better off without them.
Could you take one down, Topping, do you think? If you had to.
I dunno about @TOPPING but I would not be remotely confident of fending off one of these brutes, especially a big one - they can weight 9 stone - and that's 9 stone of total solid muscle and ferocious jaw strength
Without a weapon to hand, I am pretty sure I would lose
Me too. No chance. But we're not ex army.
As @Ghedebrav says below, I don't think anyone - even a Springbok forward - would have much chance against a big, determined XL Bully - even if you manage to fend off the first attack they are bred to persist, beyond all reason, so they will keep coming at you even if you rip an ear off
Your only hope would be to leap to safety, or make some incredibly successful first move: perhaps a drop kick to the head, or the famous eye gouging, but you'd have to be really skiful, and lucky
Not something I ever want to test
If I happened to carrying a golf club (which is not impossible) perhaps I'd prevail. But even then probably not. No, best to not find out.
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
That's why the carrier groups are being sent.
The idea that a couple of thousand non combatant soldiers, minus the medics, will make a significant difference is nonsense.
It's quite possible that some will be used to police the crossing with Egypt in order to facilitate the movement of aid supplies into southern Gaza (and the evacuation of dual nationals). Israel is blocking its opening, as they don't trust Egypt to prevent weapons being smuggled in.
Maybe you don't understand the process of escalation
Let's say these US troops, as you actually suggest, disembark in Gaza to help with the "policing". Now they are a big fat juicy target for anyone that hates America, and they are right there, in Gaza
Maybe some bombers get through and kill 900 of them. With 900 American soldiers dead, America is bound to respond. It will reinforce these troops with many more troops, and go after the attacker. That could be Iran. Now you have maybe 10,000 American troops in Gaza and a direct confrontaiton with Iran
And thus it unfurls, onwards, ever onwards
Even a direct war with Iran isn’t WW3 anymore than direct war with Iraq was. Russia can’t come to its aid, and China won’t.
The WW3 risk (or at least extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere war 3) to my mind remains Russian escalation in Ukraine. China-Taiwan doesn’t feel world warry. Too many non-aligned and disinterested parties.
Well it depends what you mean by World Warry
If you mean - a global conflict directly involving all the superpowers with a grave potential for nuclear war, then yes, you're probably right, that is - thank God - a pretty long way away
But surely there is a lower tier kind of world war, with multiple nasty wars across the planet which are complexly linked. I'd say we are halfway there, given the Russian/Iranian alliance taking on Ukraine and now Israel
If China seizes the moment of America's distraction to seize Taiwan I would definitely call that a World War, even if it is not Threads
"Europe urged to take 1m Gazans if it ‘cares about human rights so much’ Egyptian official’s reported comment comes as European Council president Charles Michel warns conflict risks 'migratory waves'"
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
Israel's military is far more effective and stronger than Russia and S Vietnam's and Israel also almost certainly has nuclear weapons for its own defence if needed
The defence correspondents of both the Times and the Telegraph are now reporting that the Israelis are deeply worried about a two or three front war, with - eg - a barrage of missiles from Lebanon that they might not be able to resist. Hence, perhaps, the strange delay in the invasion - hitherto blamed on weather, and now on Biden's visit
They are in a terrible dilemma. Do they go in and risk the wrath of the world, and even a potential and atrocious reversal? Or do they do nothing, apart from bombings and assassinations, and allow Hamas to "get away with it"?
FWIW, if they go in I predict a military disaster and/or strategic disaster. It's a terrible trap. Even if they manage to clear Hamas from the rabbit's warren of streets and miles of tunnels it will take considerable time and have cost enormous Israeli dead. They may even get hopelessly bogged down.
And then what? Do they take control of Gaza for years?
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
That's why the carrier groups are being sent.
The idea that a couple of thousand non combatant soldiers, minus the medics, will make a significant difference is nonsense.
It's quite possible that some will be used to police the crossing with Egypt in order to facilitate the movement of aid supplies into southern Gaza (and the evacuation of dual nationals). Israel is blocking its opening, as they don't trust Egypt to prevent weapons being smuggled in.
Maybe you don't understand the process of escalation
Let's say these US troops, as you actually suggest, disembark in Gaza to help with the "policing". Now they are a big fat juicy target for anyone that hates America, and they are right there, in Gaza
Maybe some bombers get through and kill 900 of them. With 900 American soldiers dead, America is bound to respond. It will reinforce these troops with many more troops, and go after the attacker. That could be Iran. Now you have maybe 10,000 American troops in Gaza and a direct confrontaiton with Iran
And thus it unfurls, onwards, ever onwards
Even a direct war with Iran isn’t WW3 anymore than direct war with Iraq was. Russia can’t come to its aid, and China won’t.
The WW3 risk (or at least extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere war 3) to my mind remains Russian escalation in Ukraine. China-Taiwan doesn’t feel world warry. Too many non-aligned and disinterested parties.
Well it depends what you mean by World Warry
If you mean - a global conflict directly involving all the superpowers with a grave potential for nuclear war, then yes, you're probably right, that is - thank God - a pretty long way away
But surely there is a lower tier kind of world war, with multiple nasty wars across the planet which are complexly linked. I'd say we are halfway there, given the Russian/Iranian alliance taking on Ukraine and now Israel
If China seizes the moment of America's distraction to seize Taiwan I would definitely call that a World War, even if it is not Threads
A series of simultaneous conflicts where the major powers aren't directly fighting each other aren't really a world war, they've happened since time immemorial and none were called a world war.
What was unique about the world wars was that almost every country in the world were in a war where the major powers were taking sides and facing each other directly.
Telegraph also reporting that Israel is rethinking an all-out assault on Gaza, for fear of attack from Iran
Pathetic if so.
Barty berating Bibi and his boys for being cowardy custards from the comfort of his gaming chair is a moment to treasure.
Yes, that is a cherishable comment
Perhaps PB could crowdfund a parachute for @BartholomewRoberts so he can drop straight into the action in Ashkelon, and show those effete Israelis how to get these things done
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
That's why the carrier groups are being sent.
The idea that a couple of thousand non combatant soldiers, minus the medics, will make a significant difference is nonsense.
It's quite possible that some will be used to police the crossing with Egypt in order to facilitate the movement of aid supplies into southern Gaza (and the evacuation of dual nationals). Israel is blocking its opening, as they don't trust Egypt to prevent weapons being smuggled in.
Maybe you don't understand the process of escalation
Let's say these US troops, as you actually suggest, disembark in Gaza to help with the "policing". Now they are a big fat juicy target for anyone that hates America, and they are right there, in Gaza
Maybe some bombers get through and kill 900 of them. With 900 American soldiers dead, America is bound to respond. It will reinforce these troops with many more troops, and go after the attacker. That could be Iran. Now you have maybe 10,000 American troops in Gaza and a direct confrontaiton with Iran
And thus it unfurls, onwards, ever onwards
Even a direct war with Iran isn’t WW3 anymore than direct war with Iraq was. Russia can’t come to its aid, and China won’t.
The WW3 risk (or at least extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere war 3) to my mind remains Russian escalation in Ukraine. China-Taiwan doesn’t feel world warry. Too many non-aligned and disinterested parties.
WW3 starts when Trump nukes Denmark because the Danish foreign minister joked about him wearing a wig.
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
Israel's military is far more effective and stronger than Russia and S Vietnam's and Israel also almost certainly has nuclear weapons for its own defence if needed
I read an article fairly recently that talked about why Russia ended up such a paper tiger and it argued that the reason was because Russia didn't depend on its military for fighting wars. Essentially, there was no incentive for the Russian army to be trained to the level where it would actually be used to fight (and even incentives against it). The author went on to suggest that Russia might not be the only paper tiger in the Jungle and that other Great Powers might have similarly useless militaries (France and the UK, I think, but they are unlikely to act independently of the US, which obviously has an Hegemon's interest in having a powerful and effective military). The article contrasted Russia with Israel, which having external security threats has the incentive to retain a military force that can fight.
I'm not expert enough in the field to actually weigh the argument, but I found it interesting enough that it lodged in my brain.
NYT live blog - Miller-Meeks, a vulnerable Republican from Iowa who won her district by six votes in 2020, votes for Jordan. Last night at a Republican conference meeting, she expressed real frustration and anger with his pressure campaign. But it seems to have worked, at least on her.
EDIT - NYT: As a reminder, lawmakers may change their votes until the gavel comes down, and lawmakers who missed the vote on the first roll call will be able to register their votes as well.
SSI - Rep Peltola (D - Alaska) votes for Jeffries and gets big applause; she missed the last bunch of Speakership roll calls, because her husband had just died in an plane crash.
This is where his argument falls down, as a matter of law:
"Under international law, the crime of genocide is defined by “the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such,”
That is not what is happening.
He is adopting a definition of genocide that is so loose, that, for example, the Allied Campaigns against Germany and Japan in WWII would be deemed genocide.
He should be very thankful that he’s from a country that values freedom of speech. Imagine what might have happened to Palestinian scholars who described the events of last Saturday in the same terms.
The whole "things sure do look flammable around here, good thing there ain't no open flame" reaction of many people when responding to legitimate criticism of Israel is really weird. I've noticed it the most when queer people, like myself, suggest that mass murder is bad by people going "well Hamas would kill you for loving men". And? As if Israeli carpet bombing isn't actually more deadly to queer Gazans than Hamas?
I see you mention Israel 'carpet bombing' Gaza, but not the continued rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel? do you think those rockets from Gaza carry teddy bears and flowers for Israelis?
It's a mess. I'd like to see a deescalation agreement: Hamas release all prisoners taken from Israel, plus bodies of the dead, and stop rocket attacks. In return, Israel does not bomb and invade. That, for a start, might take us back to a month ago.
Edit: although Hezbollah and Iran are complicating matters as well...
One group is a terrorist organisation, one is supposedly the only modern democracy in the Middle East. If the idea is that the state of Israel's moral culpability is equivalent to that of Hamas and therefore because Hamas did a terrorist attack, and keeps doing so, that Israel can just kill as many Palestinians as they want - I disagree.
Hamas is more than a 'terrorist organisation'. It is the government of Gaza.
The issue - which seems to fly merrily over your head - is that you think that as "Hamas did a terrorist attack, and keeps doing so", that Israel cannot respond.
In other words, you want Hamas to be able to attack Israel at will, but deplore any attempt by Israel to fight back.
No - Israel has to react with proportion. The mass killing of civilians is not proportional. Find Hamas soldiers, take them down, kill or arrest them. That is what the supposed "rules based order" is about - that if you want to claim to be in the civilised world their is an incumbent responsibility to react in a way that is proportional, even in the face of terrorism. I do reserve this criticism for Israel - it is the same distain I hold for the US in their actions post 9/11 in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the UK in our government's support in it. Topping likes to take examples from history, like Dresden or Hiroshima - things I also am willing to say should fall into the war crimes territory.
And Hamas is barely a government - it was elected 2006 with a plurality vote beating the Fatah party by like 3%. In a country where the average age is 18... how in any way can you start making the argument that Hamas is just synonymous with Gazan. How many dead innocent is acceptable to you? Or is there no such thing as an innocent Palestinian in your mind?
I accept the travesty of what Hamas did, and think it is morally outrageous and unjustified, and can also say that the killing of thousands of Palestinians, many of them children, is also morally outrageous and unjustified.
"The mass killing of civilians is not proportional."
And what was what Hamas did the weekend before last, except for the mass killings of civilians?
How many dead Israelis are acceptable to you? Or is there no such thing as an innocent Israeli in your mind?
So your idea of justice is "if they kill innocents, we are allowed to kill innocents"?
I have made it clear that the killing of Israeli citizens is unacceptable - but then target Hamas, not Palestinians indiscriminately. Again, Israel is supposedly a modern functioning democratic state; Hamas, and Gaza, is not. If the position is "it's only war crimes when our enemies do it" then who should give a shit about anything?
You don't make that clear at all; in fact you seem to want Israel to just sit back and be beaten to a pulp. Because you are putting massive hurdles in front of any Israeli reaction, whilst you seem happy for Hamas to do what they want to Israel.
It's perfectly fine for you, in your nice safe seat, in a nice safe country, to opine that Israel should only target Hamas. How do they do that? How do you *only* target Hamas, ensuring no civilian casualties?
"If the position is "it's only war crimes when our enemies do it""
To be clear, that's not my position.
I accept that you cannot have war with literally 0 civilian casualties - but you should be making every effort to minimise them. Not every Palestinian is a member of Hamas. What is the strategic benefit of starving an entire region when fighting a terrorist organisation? What is the strategic benefit of taking away civilian access to water? To bombing hospitals? To targeting civilian apartment blocks?
The implication that the only answer is to start bombing the Palestinians into oblivion and calling them all animals that need to be put down and so on and so on - that has nothing to do with dealing with Hamas.
If Gaza has been made so inhospitable by Israel, how has it managed to have one of the fastest rates of population growth in the world, with the population going from below 450,000 in 1980 to over 2 million last year?
80% unemployment. Need to do something to keep themselves busy.
Someone once told me 'Gaza produces nothing but shit, piss, and babies.'
For a start, there's a lot of Ocean between China and Taiwan. Secondly, Taiwan is very well armed. Thirdly, the build up of ships required to invade would be incredibly obvious on satellite imagery.
Would China quite like to recover Taiwan? Yes. Can they actually do it in a relatively simple and painless way? No.
And Russia's war in Ukraine is a reminder that invasions rarely go the way the attacker expects.
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
Israel's military is far more effective and stronger than Russia and S Vietnam's and Israel also almost certainly has nuclear weapons for its own defence if needed
The defence correspondents of both the Times and the Telegraph are now reporting that the Israelis are deeply worried about a two or three front war, with - eg - a barrage of missiles from Lebanon that they might not be able to resist. Hence, perhaps, the strange delay in the invasion - hitherto blamed on weather, and now on Biden's visit
They are in a terrible dilemma. Do they go in and risk the wrath of the world, and even a potential and atrocious reversal? Or do they do nothing, apart from bombings and assassinations, and allow Hamas to "get away with it"?
FWIW, if they go in I predict a military disaster and/or strategic disaster. It's a terrible trap. Even if they manage to clear Hamas from the rabbit's warren of streets and miles of tunnels it will take considerable time and have cost enormous Israeli dead. They may even get hopelessly bogged down.
And then what? Do they take control of Gaza for years?
What is the exit plan?
Yes, I am tending to the same view
The realisation hit me when I saw that the Israelis have put "cope cages" on all their tanks. That's the stuff the Russians have been doing, to much mockery from the west, in a desperate bid to stop Ukes taking out expensive tanks with cheap drones and NLAWs
Israel is obviously fearful of the same outcome. So that REALLY changes the game. Suddenly Israel does not have its usual overwhelming advantage, suddenly it becomes concievable that Israel might get stalemated, or even chased back in a hideous, bloody urban conflict
Russia can just about afford to lose 100,000 men. Israel has a population of 9 million. It can't afford to lose anything like that
And then, as you say, what is the endgame? Occupations are calamitous. So what is it all for?
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
That's why the carrier groups are being sent.
The idea that a couple of thousand non combatant soldiers, minus the medics, will make a significant difference is nonsense.
It's quite possible that some will be used to police the crossing with Egypt in order to facilitate the movement of aid supplies into southern Gaza (and the evacuation of dual nationals). Israel is blocking its opening, as they don't trust Egypt to prevent weapons being smuggled in.
Maybe you don't understand the process of escalation
Let's say these US troops, as you actually suggest, disembark in Gaza to help with the "policing". Now they are a big fat juicy target for anyone that hates America, and they are right there, in Gaza
Maybe some bombers get through and kill 900 of them. With 900 American soldiers dead, America is bound to respond. It will reinforce these troops with many more troops, and go after the attacker. That could be Iran. Now you have maybe 10,000 American troops in Gaza and a direct confrontaiton with Iran
And thus it unfurls, onwards, ever onwards
Even a direct war with Iran isn’t WW3 anymore than direct war with Iraq was. Russia can’t come to its aid, and China won’t.
The WW3 risk (or at least extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere war 3) to my mind remains Russian escalation in Ukraine. China-Taiwan doesn’t feel world warry. Too many non-aligned and disinterested parties.
WW3 starts when Trump nukes Denmark because the Danish foreign minister joked about him wearing a wig.
More likely he drops a nuke on Uruguay because he cannot spell and thought it was calling him gay.
Telegraph also reporting that Israel is rethinking an all-out assault on Gaza, for fear of attack from Iran
Pathetic if so.
Barty berating Bibi and his boys for being cowardy custards from the comfort of his gaming chair is a moment to treasure.
Yes, that is a cherishable comment
Perhaps PB could crowdfund a parachute for @BartholomewRoberts so he can drop straight into the action in Ashkelon, and show those effete Israelis how to get these things done
That reminds me of the end of this clip - possibly a QT panelist’s best ever comeback to an audience member
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Everything feels a bid 1913 at the moment. I fear a major conflict is coming.
If you fancy feeding your anxieties, THIS feels like a really really bad idea
R A W S A L E R T S @rawsalerts. Oct 16 🚨#BREAKING: The US Military is preparing to send roughly around 2000 troops for potential deployment to support Israel against Gaza.
That's how America's involvement in Vietnam began. "Advisors", "trainers2, "non combatants". Except this seems potentially a whole lot nastier than Vietnam, already
..#UPDATE: According to US defense officials, the troops are assigned missions such as advising and providing medical support, and they are not intended to serve in a combat role..
The comparison with Vietnam is just silly.
Is it?
"September 1950 — Truman sends the Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) Indochina to Vietnam to assist the French. The President claimed they were not sent as combat troops, but to supervise the use of $10 million worth of U.S. military equipment to support the French in their effort to fight the Viet Minh forces.
Following the outbreak of the Korean War, Truman announces "acceleration in the furnishing of military assistance to the forces of France and the Associated States in Indochina...". and sends 123 non-combat troops to help with supplies to fight against the communist Viet Minh."
Yes, it's stupid. Israel will do what it will, with or without the US.
The French effort to reclaim their former colony after WWII would have been otherwise stillborn without US finance and military aid.
I disagree. Israel will do what it will, of course
But what happens if Israel's will cannot be enforced? What happens if Israel unexpectedly LOSES in Gaza, and gets pushed back, as Russia did in its invasion of Ukraine? What happens if a second and third front open in the north and the West Bank, and Israel seems imperilled?
Suddenly the pressure to use those American troops, who are right there and waiting for combat, will be intense
Then we are heading for WW3 territory
Israel's military is far more effective and stronger than Russia and S Vietnam's and Israel also almost certainly has nuclear weapons for its own defence if needed
I read an article fairly recently that talked about why Russia ended up such a paper tiger and it argued that the reason was because Russia didn't depend on its military for fighting wars. Essentially, there was no incentive for the Russian army to be trained to the level where it would actually be used to fight (and even incentives against it). The author went on to suggest that Russia might not be the only paper tiger in the Jungle and that other Great Powers might have similarly useless militaries (France and the UK, I think, but they are unlikely to act independently of the US, which obviously has an Hegemon's interest in having a powerful and effective military). The article contrasted Russia with Israel, which having external security threats has the incentive to retain a military force that can fight.
I'm not expert enough in the field to actually weigh the argument, but I found it interesting enough that it lodged in my brain.
In Russia's case, I think it's different, and simpler, to that.
The USSR lost the Cold War. Too many Russians today see themselves as the USSR - ignoring that the USSR lost in Afghanistan. Russia points to its stronk army, its stronk air force, its stronk navy, and says "We are stronk!"
But saying you are stronk does not make you stronk. You need to invest. You need to train. And that is what Russia has *not* been doing. They have been relying on a mythos that they are the best, without actually putting in the hard miles to ensure they are the best.
It's like Bobby Riggs saying he could beat Billie Jean King...
The latest date for the GE is 28th Jan, not Thurs 23rd.
"The 17 December 2024 is exactly five years since parliament first met after the last general election, in 2019. If an election has not been called by this point, parliament would be automatically dissolved and the election would take place 25 working days later. This means the latest date for the next general election is 28 January 2025."
17th December 2024 + 25 days not counting Sats, Suns, 25th and 26th Dec and 1st January comes out to Friday 24th January 2025. If you allow two days for New Year (Scotland) it comes to Monday 27th January. Where have I gone wrong?
As Leon says, when you see these dogs you will know. F&&king huge. Built like cast granite. I am a dog person all the way through but dear god these things are unnatural. I would have no qualms with having them put down. Not their fault they came into existence but we would be better off without them.
Could you take one down, Topping, do you think? If you had to.
You obviously haven't seen one close up as I mentioned a few days ago they are huge and no human would be able to "take one down".
Thing is, though, unlike you if I "had to" I'd try.
I have seen one. Through a parked car window (me on pavement) and even that was enough to spook me.
Ok so you'd be no match for it then. I'm disappointed. I was hoping to trap you into making a risible claim. You've managed to foil me this time. I'll be back.
For a start, there's a lot of Ocean between China and Taiwan. Secondly, Taiwan is very well armed. Thirdly, the build up of ships required to invade would be incredibly obvious on satellite imagery.
Would China quite like to recover Taiwan? Yes. Can they actually do it in a relatively simple and painless way? No.
And Russia's war in Ukraine is a reminder that invasions rarely go the way the attacker expects.
My current view is that China will blockade Taiwan, and taunt the major powers to break the blockade. That is both less risky, and a more likely win for China, than a direct invasion. It's also something they've been building up towards.
Hundreds killed in Gaza hospital strike - reports We are seeing unconfirmed reports from Hamas that Israeli warplanes have struck the Baptist Hospital in central Gaza.
A health spokesman is quoted estimating that hundreds of people were killed.
Hundreds killed in Gaza hospital strike - reports We are seeing unconfirmed reports from Hamas that Israeli warplanes have struck the Baptist Hospital in central Gaza.
A health spokesman is quoted estimating that hundreds of people were killed.
Hundreds killed in Gaza hospital strike - reports We are seeing unconfirmed reports from Hamas that Israeli warplanes have struck the Baptist Hospital in central Gaza.
A health spokesman is quoted estimating that hundreds of people were killed.
Hundreds killed in Gaza hospital strike - reports We are seeing unconfirmed reports from Hamas that Israeli warplanes have struck the Baptist Hospital in central Gaza.
A health spokesman is quoted estimating that hundreds of people were killed.
More on this story as we get it.
"unequivocal support for Israel... not just today, not just tomorrow, but always"
“The ‘96 vintage seems to be a good year - somewhat sharp on the palette from the pre-fragmented tungsten in the warhead, and a bouquet of burnt orchre from the Octol. A bold finish to the evening.”
For a start, there's a lot of Ocean between China and Taiwan. Secondly, Taiwan is very well armed. Thirdly, the build up of ships required to invade would be incredibly obvious on satellite imagery.
Would China quite like to recover Taiwan? Yes. Can they actually do it in a relatively simple and painless way? No.
And Russia's war in Ukraine is a reminder that invasions rarely go the way the attacker expects.
My current view is that China will blockade Taiwan, and taunt the major powers to break the blockade. That is both less risky, and a more likely win for China, than a direct invasion. It's also something they've been building up towards.
I agree: that is much more likely than a straight invasion.
The question is are they willing to stop a US naval warship heading into a Taiwanese port?
Hundreds killed in Gaza hospital strike - reports We are seeing unconfirmed reports from Hamas that Israeli warplanes have struck the Baptist Hospital in central Gaza.
A health spokesman is quoted estimating that hundreds of people were killed.
More on this story as we get it.
Madness. Utter madness.
Let's pray that it's wrong. That will lead to immediate terror attacks, I suspect. If it is true
It doesn't look good
The Spectator Index @spectatorindex · 19m BREAKING: Hamas-run 🇵🇸 Palestinian health ministry says over 500 people have been killed in strike on the Baptist Hospital in Gaza
Telegraph also reporting that Israel is rethinking an all-out assault on Gaza, for fear of attack from Iran
Pathetic if so.
Barty berating Bibi and his boys for being cowardy custards from the comfort of his gaming chair is a moment to treasure.
Yes, that is a cherishable comment
Perhaps PB could crowdfund a parachute for @BartholomewRoberts so he can drop straight into the action in Ashkelon, and show those effete Israelis how to get these things done
That reminds me of the end of this clip - possibly a QT panelist’s best ever comeback to an audience member
The latest date for the GE is 28th Jan, not Thurs 23rd.
"The 17 December 2024 is exactly five years since parliament first met after the last general election, in 2019. If an election has not been called by this point, parliament would be automatically dissolved and the election would take place 25 working days later. This means the latest date for the next general election is 28 January 2025."
17th December 2024 + 25 days not counting Sats, Suns, 25th and 26th Dec and 1st January comes out to Friday 24th January 2025. If you allow two days for New Year (Scotland) it comes to Monday 27th January. Where have I gone wrong?
I get same result. Maybe we are missing something. Unless it is 25 working days and then the next day (28th) is the election?
For a start, there's a lot of Ocean between China and Taiwan. Secondly, Taiwan is very well armed. Thirdly, the build up of ships required to invade would be incredibly obvious on satellite imagery.
Would China quite like to recover Taiwan? Yes. Can they actually do it in a relatively simple and painless way? No.
And Russia's war in Ukraine is a reminder that invasions rarely go the way the attacker expects.
My current view is that China will blockade Taiwan, and taunt the major powers to break the blockade. That is both less risky, and a more likely win for China, than a direct invasion. It's also something they've been building up towards.
I agree: that is much more likely than a straight invasion.
The question is are they willing to stop a US naval warship heading into a Taiwanese port?
Yes, it will be a blockade. But not just navy. They will try and take down Taiwan's internet as well, probably even more effective if they can do it
"China Is Practicing How to Sever Taiwan’s Internet The cutoff of the Matsu Islands may be a dry run for further aggression."
Coked up twat waves a picture of a kid who died of cancer, straight away no messing, charged, loses job, wall to wall coverage by the media....
Al-Qaeda, al-Shabab, Boko Haram, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in Iraq, jihadist fighters in Chechnya, Hizb al-Tahrir and Islamic State have all adopted versions of the flag.
For a start, there's a lot of Ocean between China and Taiwan. Secondly, Taiwan is very well armed. Thirdly, the build up of ships required to invade would be incredibly obvious on satellite imagery.
Would China quite like to recover Taiwan? Yes. Can they actually do it in a relatively simple and painless way? No.
And Russia's war in Ukraine is a reminder that invasions rarely go the way the attacker expects.
My current view is that China will blockade Taiwan, and taunt the major powers to break the blockade. That is both less risky, and a more likely win for China, than a direct invasion. It's also something they've been building up towards.
It would have to be by air and sea and unless Taiwan surrendered, unlikely given it has its own factories and farms etc for domestic production, then would still require a bloody invasion
Sunak is hoping to get his photo op in Israel over the coming days . He was hoping to squeeze that in tomorrow before the by-elections but Biden is going so we won’t see his Important Global Leader performance until later on in the week .
This is where his argument falls down, as a matter of law:
"Under international law, the crime of genocide is defined by “the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such,”
That is not what is happening.
He is adopting a definition of genocide that is so loose, that, for example, the Allied Campaigns against Germany and Japan in WWII would be deemed genocide.
He should be very thankful that he’s from a country that values freedom of speech. Imagine what might have happened to Palestinian scholars who described the events of last Saturday in the same terms.
The whole "things sure do look flammable around here, good thing there ain't no open flame" reaction of many people when responding to legitimate criticism of Israel is really weird. I've noticed it the most when queer people, like myself, suggest that mass murder is bad by people going "well Hamas would kill you for loving men". And? As if Israeli carpet bombing isn't actually more deadly to queer Gazans than Hamas?
I see you mention Israel 'carpet bombing' Gaza, but not the continued rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel? do you think those rockets from Gaza carry teddy bears and flowers for Israelis?
It's a mess. I'd like to see a deescalation agreement: Hamas release all prisoners taken from Israel, plus bodies of the dead, and stop rocket attacks. In return, Israel does not bomb and invade. That, for a start, might take us back to a month ago.
Edit: although Hezbollah and Iran are complicating matters as well...
One group is a terrorist organisation, one is supposedly the only modern democracy in the Middle East. If the idea is that the state of Israel's moral culpability is equivalent to that of Hamas and therefore because Hamas did a terrorist attack, and keeps doing so, that Israel can just kill as many Palestinians as they want - I disagree.
Hamas is more than a 'terrorist organisation'. It is the government of Gaza.
The issue - which seems to fly merrily over your head - is that you think that as "Hamas did a terrorist attack, and keeps doing so", that Israel cannot respond.
In other words, you want Hamas to be able to attack Israel at will, but deplore any attempt by Israel to fight back.
No - Israel has to react with proportion. The mass killing of civilians is not proportional. Find Hamas soldiers, take them down, kill or arrest them. That is what the supposed "rules based order" is about - that if you want to claim to be in the civilised world their is an incumbent responsibility to react in a way that is proportional, even in the face of terrorism. I do reserve this criticism for Israel - it is the same distain I hold for the US in their actions post 9/11 in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the UK in our government's support in it. Topping likes to take examples from history, like Dresden or Hiroshima - things I also am willing to say should fall into the war crimes territory.
And Hamas is barely a government - it was elected 2006 with a plurality vote beating the Fatah party by like 3%. In a country where the average age is 18... how in any way can you start making the argument that Hamas is just synonymous with Gazan. How many dead innocent is acceptable to you? Or is there no such thing as an innocent Palestinian in your mind?
I accept the travesty of what Hamas did, and think it is morally outrageous and unjustified, and can also say that the killing of thousands of Palestinians, many of them children, is also morally outrageous and unjustified.
"The mass killing of civilians is not proportional."
And what was what Hamas did the weekend before last, except for the mass killings of civilians?
How many dead Israelis are acceptable to you? Or is there no such thing as an innocent Israeli in your mind?
So your idea of justice is "if they kill innocents, we are allowed to kill innocents"?
I have made it clear that the killing of Israeli citizens is unacceptable - but then target Hamas, not Palestinians indiscriminately. Again, Israel is supposedly a modern functioning democratic state; Hamas, and Gaza, is not. If the position is "it's only war crimes when our enemies do it" then who should give a shit about anything?
You don't make that clear at all; in fact you seem to want Israel to just sit back and be beaten to a pulp. Because you are putting massive hurdles in front of any Israeli reaction, whilst you seem happy for Hamas to do what they want to Israel.
It's perfectly fine for you, in your nice safe seat, in a nice safe country, to opine that Israel should only target Hamas. How do they do that? How do you *only* target Hamas, ensuring no civilian casualties?
"If the position is "it's only war crimes when our enemies do it""
To be clear, that's not my position.
I accept that you cannot have war with literally 0 civilian casualties - but you should be making every effort to minimise them. Not every Palestinian is a member of Hamas. What is the strategic benefit of starving an entire region when fighting a terrorist organisation? What is the strategic benefit of taking away civilian access to water? To bombing hospitals? To targeting civilian apartment blocks?
The implication that the only answer is to start bombing the Palestinians into oblivion and calling them all animals that need to be put down and so on and so on - that has nothing to do with dealing with Hamas.
If Gaza has been made so inhospitable by Israel, how has it managed to have one of the fastest rates of population growth in the world, with the population going from below 450,000 in 1980 to over 2 million last year?
80% unemployment. Need to do something to keep themselves busy.
Someone once told me 'Gaza produces nothing but shit, piss, and babies.'
We still haven’t had this report confirmed but if it was an air strike by the Israelis it’s unforgivable to target a hospital .
I suspect there was Hamas there too, you can't see the full picture until all evidence emerged.
Hamas of course murdered Israeli women, children and babies deliberately targeted so if the Israelis want to wipe out Hamas they won't give much quarter
Hundreds killed in Gaza hospital strike - reports We are seeing unconfirmed reports from Hamas that Israeli warplanes have struck the Baptist Hospital in central Gaza.
A health spokesman is quoted estimating that hundreds of people were killed.
More on this story as we get it.
Horrific if confirmed and a war crime.
I hope that's not true. It would be impossible to justify even if you're passionately pro Israel.
We still haven’t had this report confirmed but if it was an air strike by the Israelis it’s unforgivable to target a hospital .
I suspect there was Hamas there too, you can't see the full picture until all evidence emerged.
Hamas of course murdered Israeli women, children and babies deliberately targeted so if the Israelis want to wipe out Hamas they won't give much quarter
Israel of course murdered Palestinian women, children and babies over several decades.
We still haven’t had this report confirmed but if it was an air strike by the Israelis it’s unforgivable to target a hospital .
I suspect there was Hamas there too, you can't see the full picture until all evidence emerged.
Hamas of course murdered Israeli women, children and babies deliberately targeted so if the Israelis want to wipe out Hamas they won't give much quarter
Come off it HY, even you must be able to see that a strike on a hospital with potentially 500+ casualties is outrageous?
If Israel are proved to have done this they have just lost.
NYT blog - Temporary Speaker Patrick McHenry says Jordan won 200 votes; Jeffries 212. Kevin McCarthy received 6 votes, Steve Scalise received 7 votes, and 5 others received a total of 7 votes. Jim Jordan has fallen short of winning the gavel this round.
Coked up twat waves a picture of a kid who died of cancer, straight away no messing, charged, loses job, wall to wall coverage by the media....
Al-Qaeda, al-Shabab, Boko Haram, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in Iraq, jihadist fighters in Chechnya, Hizb al-Tahrir and Islamic State have all adopted versions of the flag.
We still haven’t had this report confirmed but if it was an air strike by the Israelis it’s unforgivable to target a hospital .
I suspect there was Hamas there too, you can't see the full picture until all evidence emerged.
Hamas of course murdered Israeli women, children and babies deliberately targeted so if the Israelis want to wipe out Hamas they won't give much quarter
Israel of course murdered Palestinian women, children and babies over several decades.
Not deliberately but war is war, especially if the Israelis want to wipe out Hamas
I have just got back from my second visit to Mid Beds. Once again I noted a distinct lack of posters on the main routes - did not have time to check all the many villages and small towns. It still appears to be a 'not sure' election - and potentially a low turnout one. As previously mentioned it will come down to GOTV - hence the repeated requests to come on polling day or join a telephone knock-up.
Comments
NY Times blog
Iran is not a WW3 style enemy. Russia is so embedded in Ukraine it won't join in directly - and equally wouldn't want America taking the gloves off to intervene directly in Ukraine. China isn't getting involved.
The Arab world would not make WW3.
What a remarkable World Cup this is becoming.
Thing is, though, unlike you if I "had to" I'd try.
The idea that a couple of thousand non combatant soldiers, minus the medics, will make a significant difference is nonsense.
It's quite possible that some will be used to police the crossing with Egypt in order to facilitate the movement of aid supplies into southern Gaza (and the evacuation of dual nationals). Israel is blocking its opening, as they don't trust Egypt to prevent weapons being smuggled in.
(It doesn't say who might have inserted it.)
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/gaza-israel-hamas-tilda-swinton-b2431129.html
Russia is bogged down in the Ukraine and is no friend of Islamic fundamentalism. China is too busy making money to make trouble in the region - everyone is determined to keep oil flowing and the price of oil stable (the memory of 1973 will see to that).
Syria is too weak and Egypt is resolutely trying not to get involved. A direct Iran-Israel confrontation is possible but there will only be one winner and while it is a nuclear power, America will remind Israel of the consequences of using any nuclear weapons. I'd argue October 1973 was much more dangerous.
The main risk for the West is an interruption to or a spike in oil prices which would push economies into recession if not worse. There is a secondary risk of a diaspora of Gazan refugees hence, I suspect, a lot of pressure now on Israel not to level Gaza but to systematically take out the Hamas leadership with as little collateral damage as possible.
That may not be what Israel wants or vengeance mandates but there's a realpolitik at work here.
If you were born after 1980, you're a woke green communist.
If you were born before 1965, you're a Gammony-Brexity-Ukippy NIMBY.
Is this 100% accurate? No. But it's as close as you can come to summarising the entirety of British politics in two sentences.
https://nitter.net/K_Niemietz/status/1714241536915886319#m
Kevin McCarthy - 2
Steve Scalise - 1
Lee Zeldin - 1
Mike Garcia - 1
plus 1 GOPer has passed, holding his water/fire/firewater until tail end of roll call.
EDIT - and 1 more for Garcia; believe this means that JJ will NOT have sufficient votes to be elected on this round.
Colour me unconvinced.
Let's say these US troops, as you actually suggest, disembark in Gaza to help with the "policing". Now they are a big fat juicy target for anyone that hates America, and they are right there, in Gaza
Maybe some bombers get through and kill 900 of them. With 900 American soldiers dead, America is bound to respond. It will reinforce these troops with many more troops, and go after the attacker. That could be Iran. Now you have maybe 10,000 American troops in Gaza and a direct confrontaiton with Iran
And thus it unfurls, onwards, ever onwards
Only a few years ago we had ISIS controlling vast swathes of Syria and Iraq, Kurdish forces being supported by NATO close to the border while Turkey fought them on the ground, and both Russia and the US in the air bombing militants plus, on at least one occasion, each other.
I think the (sad) normality of war and factional violence in the Levant actually makes wider escalation less rather than more likely. It’s not abnormal enough for anyone to feel too threatened other than the regional players.
Things can only get better.
66 runs required, from 5 overs, with 1 wicket remaining.
POPWAS.
NYT live blog: So far among the defectors, we're seeing two groups emerge: McCarthy and Scalise allies — so establishment types -— and the 18 House Republicans who represent districts Biden won in 2020.
The WW3 risk (or at least extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere war 3) to my mind remains Russian escalation in Ukraine. China-Taiwan doesn’t feel world warry. Too many non-aligned and disinterested parties.
They are in a terrible dilemma. Do they go in and risk the wrath of the world, and even a potential and atrocious reversal? Or do they do nothing, apart from bombings and assassinations, and allow Hamas to "get away with it"?
But the hypocrisy has been off the charts even for Congress. How dare people stand in the way of the GOP nominee for Speaker...when dozens of them refused to support the nominee when it was the one they didn't want just last week?
But I am not going to second guess any change of strategy real or just mooted.
Let's wait to see what it means.
If you mean - a global conflict directly involving all the superpowers with a grave potential for nuclear war, then yes, you're probably right, that is - thank God - a pretty long way away
But surely there is a lower tier kind of world war, with multiple nasty wars across the planet which are complexly linked. I'd say we are halfway there, given the Russian/Iranian alliance taking on Ukraine and now Israel
If China seizes the moment of America's distraction to seize Taiwan I would definitely call that a World War, even if it is not Threads
"Europe urged to take 1m Gazans if it ‘cares about human rights so much’
Egyptian official’s reported comment comes as European Council president Charles Michel warns conflict risks 'migratory waves'"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/17/egypt-government-official-europe-million-refugees-sinai/
And then what? Do they take control of Gaza for years?
What is the exit plan?
It is Developing Nations War.
What was unique about the world wars was that almost every country in the world were in a war where the major powers were taking sides and facing each other directly.
Perhaps PB could crowdfund a parachute for @BartholomewRoberts so he can drop straight into the action in Ashkelon, and show those effete Israelis how to get these things done
They are sticking Coach Jockstrap's head in the toilet . . . and flushing repeatedly.
Am starting to think, that Steve Scalise is gonna end up being Speaker after all.
BTW, Kevin McCarthy just voted for Jordan, reckon Scalise will do the same . . . on THIS roll call . . .
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1714276316382683511
I hope that a 'third way' can be found towards peace; and better minds than ours are working on that. I hope.
I'm not expert enough in the field to actually weigh the argument, but I found it interesting enough that it lodged in my brain.
56 off final 12 balls required. Theoretically possible but more than a boundary a ball now.
EDIT - NYT: As a reminder, lawmakers may change their votes until the gavel comes down, and lawmakers who missed the vote on the first roll call will be able to register their votes as well.
SSI - Rep Peltola (D - Alaska) votes for Jeffries and gets big applause; she missed the last bunch of Speakership roll calls, because her husband had just died in an plane crash.
For a start, there's a lot of Ocean between China and Taiwan. Secondly, Taiwan is very well armed. Thirdly, the build up of ships required to invade would be incredibly obvious on satellite imagery.
Would China quite like to recover Taiwan? Yes.
Can they actually do it in a relatively simple and painless way? No.
And Russia's war in Ukraine is a reminder that invasions rarely go the way the attacker expects.
Asking for a friend.
The realisation hit me when I saw that the Israelis have put "cope cages" on all their tanks. That's the stuff the Russians have been doing, to much mockery from the west, in a desperate bid to stop Ukes taking out expensive tanks with cheap drones and NLAWs
Israel is obviously fearful of the same outcome. So that REALLY changes the game. Suddenly Israel does not have its usual overwhelming advantage, suddenly it becomes concievable that Israel might get stalemated, or even chased back in a hideous, bloody urban conflict
Russia can just about afford to lose 100,000 men. Israel has a population of 9 million. It can't afford to lose anything like that
And then, as you say, what is the endgame? Occupations are calamitous. So what is it all for?
https://youtu.be/puMqlj0QRjA?feature=shared
So he targeted Swedes? When Sweden is one of the few Western nations to recognise Palestine (since the 1980s)?
They'd already effectively won, but great for them to win via bowling out the Proteas. What an accomplishment.
The USSR lost the Cold War. Too many Russians today see themselves as the USSR - ignoring that the USSR lost in Afghanistan. Russia points to its stronk army, its stronk air force, its stronk navy, and says "We are stronk!"
But saying you are stronk does not make you stronk. You need to invest. You need to train. And that is what Russia has *not* been doing. They have been relying on a mythos that they are the best, without actually putting in the hard miles to ensure they are the best.
It's like Bobby Riggs saying he could beat Billie Jean King...
17th December 2024 + 25 days not counting Sats, Suns, 25th and 26th Dec and 1st January comes out to Friday 24th January 2025. If you allow two days for New Year (Scotland) it comes to Monday 27th January. Where have I gone wrong?
Ok so you'd be no match for it then. I'm disappointed. I was hoping to trap you into making a risible claim. You've managed to foil me this time. I'll be back.
https://twitter.com/BullyWatchUK
BBC:
BREAKING
Hundreds killed in Gaza hospital strike - reports
We are seeing unconfirmed reports from Hamas that Israeli warplanes have struck the Baptist Hospital in central Gaza.
A health spokesman is quoted estimating that hundreds of people were killed.
More on this story as we get it.
Madness. Utter madness.
Thanks Rishi.
“The ‘96 vintage seems to be a good year - somewhat sharp on the palette from the pre-fragmented tungsten in the warhead, and a bouquet of burnt orchre from the Octol. A bold finish to the evening.”
The question is are they willing to stop a US naval warship heading into a Taiwanese port?
It doesn't look good
The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex
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19m
BREAKING: Hamas-run 🇵🇸 Palestinian health ministry says over 500 people have been killed in strike on the Baptist Hospital in Gaza
"China Is Practicing How to Sever Taiwan’s Internet
The cutoff of the Matsu Islands may be a dry run for further aggression."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/21/matsu-islands-internet-cables-china-taiwan/
Jeffries 212
Jordan 200
Scalise7
McCarthy 6
Cole 1
Emmer 1
Garcia 1
Massie 1
Zeldin 3
Al-Qaeda, al-Shabab, Boko Haram, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in Iraq, jihadist fighters in Chechnya, Hizb al-Tahrir and Islamic State have all adopted versions of the flag.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/17/palestine-flag-jihadists-black-london-met-police-offence/
Hamas of course murdered Israeli women, children and babies deliberately targeted so if the Israelis want to wipe out Hamas they won't give much quarter
But, they won’t win.
If Israel are proved to have done this they have just lost.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-us-canada-67129576