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The Tories tighter than evens to retain Mid Bedfordshire – politicalbetting.com
The Tories tighter than evens to retain Mid Bedfordshire – politicalbetting.com
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The Tories tighter than evens to retain Mid Bedfordshire – politicalbetting.com
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Inflation down towards 6% and two by election holds?? Maybe???
https://jewishcurrents.org/a-textbook-case-of-genocide
Is that true? Could affect Mid Bedfordshire, or even Tamworth
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/i-want-my-prime-minister-to-bore-me/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pmm1N3XXX97uQKusnBnrg0zptS9xJaa6/view?pli=1
"Under international law, the crime of genocide is defined by “the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such,”
That is not what is happening.
He is adopting a definition of genocide that is so loose, that, for example, the Allied Campaigns against Germany and Japan in WWII would be deemed genocide.
I hope he had plush carpet, as that can seriously hurt. The remake of The Thomas Crown Affair has Pierce Brosnan making love to Rene Russo on a marble staircase, and all one could think of was "Lord that must be killing her back. At least get her a cushion."
Oh, here's a nonpaywall link: https://archive.ph/DmwNL
I did warn PBers that utter stupidity by Lib/Lab would let the Tories in.
A lesson in how NOT to play the FPP game.
So the entirely accurate answer to that question is "no, he didn't"
It’s quite a bombshell revelation
I have not had the time to follow the betting closely enough and haven’t bet anything myself. Had I, I’d be tempted to lay Con and bet LD at those odds, although I don’t think I’d dare to put big amounts down in either case. I’m sure some of you managed to lay the LDs when they were shorter and be green on them now. Congrats if so.
https://twitter.com/democracynow/status/1713984982702555335
https://x.com/warmonitors/status/1714238916096561209?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Meanwhile Israel is also hitting south Gaza, the place they so generously offered as a refuge for fleeing civilians. I guess most of the hundred dead must also be Hamas.
EadricPrince...@DPJHodges
·
2h
This is an example of how bonkers the Tory strategy is at the moment. You do not brief “we’re going to hold both seats”. You brief “we’ll keep fighting, but it’s tough”. It’s basic political expectation management.
I'm not sure the Wikipedia article is accurate, as it deals with slebs.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/14/gaza-civilians-afraid-to-leave-home-after-bombing-of-safe-routes
They backed up the rhetoric of "these are animals" by turning of the power, water and incoming food - and by keeping Palestinians in an open air cage for over a decade.
Israel's attacks have been so indiscriminate that you have journalists and UN staff being killed!
Is there anything Israel could do that you wouldn't defend or wave away?
Managed to have a nibble on them at 2/1 a week or so ago which I think I mentioned on here as value at the time (this was after viewing it as a no-bet for a while as it's such a weird by-election). Hopefully a few of us here will make a couple of quid out of it.
In passing, it will make a persuasive example for any sort of Lib-Lab electoral pact.
Ian Dunt
@IanDunt
Largely unfussed by this [Beds poll predictions]. There just aren't that many seats where Labour and the Lib Dems will get in each other's way. And a Tory win would sharpen minds about how they both approach the general election.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1714235639351136367
Still glad I gave up the subscription.
On the same note, I receive daily emails from Labour asking for help in Mid-Beds, but again, nothing on Tamworth. So, either Labour thinks it's in the bag, or they've given up. Does anybody know what's going on in Tamworth, and why there's such an apparent lack of interest?
It's a mess. I'd like to see a deescalation agreement: Hamas release all prisoners taken from Israel, plus bodies of the dead, and stop rocket attacks. In return, Israel does not bomb and invade. That, for a start, might take us back to a month ago.
Edit: although Hezbollah and Iran are complicating matters as well...
bondegezou has been one of those arguing exactly what we have been arguing as far as Israel overstepping the mark is concerned. I have seen nothing that could be considerd a defence of current or past Israeli attitudes or actions as far as Palestinian civilians are concerned.
*Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator
In fact I find myself - uncharacteristically - outraged on behalf of Sir Keir Starmer. The insinuation that the onetime head of the Crown Prosecution Service would have major surgery so as to enable him to fellate himself is not only shocking, but seems completely groundless. Where is the evidence? There is none. Just sly innuendo
It also fails the historical test. How many Labour leaders of the past have had important bones removed so they can pleasure themselves by mouth? Zero. So it’s quite a departure if Starmer has done it
My position is still that it is clear that the Israeli plans of attack have genocidal intent.
When these threads become conversations with multiple people, it is difficult to denote who says what. That question was, mainly, aimed at Sean F and others who had replied hand waving the atrocities of the state of Israel.
My position is still that it is clear that the Israeli plans of attack have genocidal intent.
The regime in Iran is not completely secure. They won't want to do anything to jeopardise their positions
The issue - which seems to fly merrily over your head - is that you think that as "Hamas did a terrorist attack, and keeps doing so", that Israel cannot respond.
In other words, you want Hamas to be able to attack Israel at will, but deplore any attempt by Israel to fight back.
How precious.
I have no idea what I would do, like you, if we were in Israel's position. Intellectually, I have great sympathy for what they are doing. Is it as "surgical" as some people think is possible? Probably not. Are there civilian casualties? Absolutely and I regret that.
So it comes down to a matter of degree. I'm guessing you would like Israel to stop right this minute. And I guess if I had asked you yesterday you would have liked Israel to stop this minute. And so on, perhaps back to the afternoon of October 7th, who knows.
So what was Israel to do, given that I understand the reasons that they couldn't turn the other cheek.
Bur regimes often see 'victory' in a war or conflict as a way to secure their positon.
"Genocide" is a term that gets flung around a lot, when the author usually means "killing."
I agree. It is proportionality. Israel has the right to defend itself and it under attack at the moment.
They are right to after Hamas. Hamas are not partners for peace, they are a threat to Israel's continued wellbeing. Targetting and killing the Hamas militia is totally legitimate, especially after the events of the 7th October.
However, by the same token, I feel they should seek a peaceful co-existence with the authority on the West Bank. Something rendered less likely by continued grabbing of land.
Against that lot, Labour won the most recent round of council elections although the prior distribution was more favourable to Labour locally compared to anything GE-wise.
Operation "DRAGONFLY" of the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine to strike enemy equipment in the airfields near temporarily occupied Luhansk and Berdiansk. According to the latest data, losses in Berdiansk and Luhansk are as follows:
▪️nine helicopters of various modifications;
▪️special equipment located at the airfields;
▪️air defense system launcher;
▪️an ammunition depot;
▪️airfield runways were damaged.
The ammunition depot in Berdiansk detonated until 4 am. Detonation in Luhansk lasted until 11 am.
Glory to Ukrainian Warriors!
📹: reportedly, Berdiansk.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1714236208430059872?s=20
And Hamas is barely a government - it was elected 2006 with a plurality vote beating the Fatah party by like 3%. In a country where the average age is 18... how in any way can you start making the argument that Hamas is just synonymous with Gazan. How many dead innocent is acceptable to you? Or is there no such thing as an innocent Palestinian in your mind?
I accept the travesty of what Hamas did, and think it is morally outrageous and unjustified, and can also say that the killing of thousands of Palestinians, many of them children, is also morally outrageous and unjustified.
If Hamas are just a bunch of nutters with AK47s and 1980s-style rocket launchers, one imagines Israel's conventional army can flatten them. If, on the other hand, they've been watching the Ukraine theatre, and are being armed / trained by Iran....
Tory officials claim their vote share in Thursday’s 2 by elections will approximately halve, leaked memo sent to Greg Hands - seen by Sky News - suggests
In Mid Beds and Tamworth, phone canvassing suggests Tory result will be ~30%
https://news.sky.com/story/leaked-tory-memo-predicts-double-by-election-defeat-blaming-enormous-discontent-on-nadine-dorries-12986125
If true - and of course there is expectation management - that would mean defeat in Tamworth, tho not necessarily in Mid Beds
Nadine Dorries likely to be blamed for defeat, memo suggests
And what was what Hamas did the weekend before last, except for the mass killings of civilians?
How many dead Israelis are acceptable to you? Or is there no such thing as an innocent Israeli in your mind?
Distraughtdelighted to hear it.But to your post. When the history books come to be written there will be a chapter I'm sure dedicated to the lack of nuance in current events.
Plus I'm right about you wanting Israel to stop this minute, and yesterday, and last Saturday, so what would you do/have done.
Having said that, even that is no excuse for what we saw the other weekend.
superb article.
Why a Gaza Invasion and ‘Once and for All’ Thinking Are Wrong for Israel
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/16/opinion/israel-gaza-war.html
Anti-semitism is a different category altogether and goes beyond criticism albeit people often try to slip in anti-semitism under cover of anti-Israel sentiment, as @Cyclefree noted also yesterday.
“A senior Iranian military commander says that #Iran-backed militant groups will not stop targeting #Israel until the country ceases to exist.”
https://x.com/alarabiya_eng/status/1714252709132411193?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
They aren’t leaving Israel much room
I have made it clear that the killing of Israeli citizens is unacceptable - but then target Hamas, not Palestinians indiscriminately. Again, Israel is supposedly a modern functioning democratic state; Hamas, and Gaza, is not. If the position is "it's only war crimes when our enemies do it" then who should give a shit about anything?
This is why Ukraine has been begging for ATACMS for more than a year - every Russian airfield and ammo dump now needs to be inside what’s legally considered Russia, because anything in Ukraine is fair game for the defenders.
🔺NEW: Israel may not immediately send thousands of tanks and troops into Gaza after President Biden's visit tomorrow, as officials hint the effort to eradicate Hamas may be “something different” from a ground invasion.
Follow for the latest updates ⬇️
https://x.com/thetimes/status/1714255865547522317?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
What could it be, tho? Israel still has to extirpate Hamas. Somehow
It's perfectly fine for you, in your nice safe seat, in a nice safe country, to opine that Israel should only target Hamas. How do they do that? How do you *only* target Hamas, ensuring no civilian casualties?
"If the position is "it's only war crimes when our enemies do it""
To be clear, that's not my position.
By not doing a knee jerk mass arming of any and every Israeli citizen who wants a gun and giving them carte blanche to shoot any Palestinian they want.
By killing the Hamas soldiers who were in Israel at the time (fighting went on in some parts for 3 days as far a I'm aware), securing the border and by going back to the intelligence agencies of Egypt and the US who warned you this was going to happen soon and you ignored and asking them for more precise information about where Hamas is.
If military operations must happen, they must happen in a way that aims to minimise civilian casualty - that is clearly not happening.