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A LAB majority stays at a near 65% betting chance – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    TimS said:

    It just occurred to me. Through all the CPC weirdness, one strange lacuna. Nobody is banging on about Brexit. Almost completely absent from their discourse.

    I wonder why.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    kinabalu said:

    I'm from round there too. Maybe they were hoping making it a city would be viewed as Levelling Up.
    I expect the council will award themselves pay rises now they are a 'city' council but I'm not expecting many other changes.
  • roll call vote in US House in progress "On ordering the previous question" that is, procedural vote prior to The Vote.

    So far this roll call strictly party line, all Reps Yea, all Dems No.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,427
    edited October 2023

    You have quite literally no idea about Manchester.

    I live in Sale, between Stretford and Alty and consider myself far more aware of the local area than someone who comes across as disconnected from any sort of understanding of how economies and urban areas actually operate.
    I absolutely do, I'm from the North West myself and worked across Greater Manchester, Cheshire, Merseyside and Lancashire.

    Except you're not listening to what I'm saying. I have literally repeatedly said that these towns are connected to Manchester (and Liverpool FWIW). I've never said otherwise though.

    They're still towns though.

    What does a town mean to you? You seem to be stuck on the concept of rural, but towns overwhelmingly are urban not rural.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576

    If he is being correctly quoted as having said 'looks like I've got my first kill' at the time (one never knows with the police) then I have no idea why this wasn't tried as murder.

    Too much GTA?

    A really shocking case.
    Didn’t he also say something afterwards about how sorry he was.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    If he is being correctly quoted as having said 'looks like I've got my first kill' at the time (one never knows with the police) then I have no idea why this wasn't tried as murder.

    Too much GTA?

    A really shocking case.
    I don’t want to sound like Bravermans love child but the little runt deserves a good beating before being jailed and the key thrown away. The manner of the case is horrific , the suffering inflicted on that poor woman was horrific before she died .
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    Just logged on. Already bored with what is, or is not, a city.

    Is there any politics happening?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    nico679 said:

    Utterly pathetic . The boy who ran over that poor lady was allowed to plead guilty to death by dangerous driving instead of being charged with murder . He ran over this poor woman and then did so again when she was trapped under her car. And then watching the news the judges and KC apparently removed their gowns and wigs to make him feel more comfortable. Pathetic .

    Jeez why didn’t they just sing him kumbaya and hand out some chocolates to make him feel even better ! I’m sure his parents are so proud , what a wonderful child they produced !

    Removing wigs and gowns is SOP with child cases if it seems necessary to conduct the trial, as I understand it. It's not specific to this case at all. And it also removes one possbile ground of appeal.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    I use a lawnmower to, er, mow the lawn.

    Well, actually, I try to keep my head down and hope that my wife does it.


    Meanwhile, it looks like Braverman has upset all of the people she intended to upset.

    I was going to attack Braverman's absurd line about well heeled liberals getting immigrants to mow their lawn but then I remembered the last two people to mow our lawn were my father in law (born Sri Lanka) and my son (born USA) and I suddenly realised - my God, she might be onto something here.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    It's almost like we need an impartial, independent, data expert team to work this out for us....

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Manchester_Built-up_Area

    They do it with the exact same methodology for all parts of the country.

    Anyway, I need to go.

    I am off to the town of Old Trafford to watch Manchester United play.
    Oh god, they are playing again? Will it never stop?
  • NYT - Live blog US House vote(s) on removing Kevin McCarthy as Speaker (newest first):

    > Representative Kelly Armstrong, Republican of North Dakota, said as he was entering the chamber that if Speaker Kevin McCarthy is ousted, Armstrong believes more than 200 Republican members will fight for him to be reinstated. “Anybody else said they want the job?," he asked. "Why the hell would they?”

    > A group of hard-right Republican rebels is seated together: Tim Burchett, Eli Crane, Matt Gaetz and Ken Buck. All of them except Buck have stated definitely that they will vote for a motion to vacate. Buck has been noncommittal.

    >A group of teenage Senate pages has filed into the House gallery to watch what could potentially be a momentous day. The House page program was discontinued years ago after a series of scandals.

    > Quite a day to be a tourist visiting the Capitol. The visitors galleries are packed.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Carnyx said:

    Removing wigs and gowns is SOP with child cases if it seems necessary to conduct the trial, as I understand it. It's not specific to this case at all. And it also removes one possbile ground of appeal.
    Grounds for appeal . I don’t understand. So the little runt was okay driving over a lady and killing her but apparently too sensitive and traumatized to see the gowns and wigs of the judiciary.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    roll call vote in US House in progress "On ordering the previous question" that is, procedural vote prior to The Vote.

    So far this roll call strictly party line, all Reps Yea, all Dems No.

    What does this vote mean SeaShanty?
  • I absolutely do, I'm from the North West myself and worked across Greater Manchester, Cheshire, Merseyside and Lancashire.

    Except you're not listening to what I'm saying. I have literally repeatedly said that these towns are connected to Manchester (and Liverpool FWIW). I've never said otherwise though.

    They're still towns though.

    What does a town mean to you? You seem to be stuck on the concept of rural, but towns overwhelmingly are urban not rural.
    Alty is intrinsically economically and socially linked into the Manc urban area.

    As much as Ealing is to London.

    The term town is utterly meaningless today, Alty was founded as a town in 1290 (from memory) today it's part of the urban fabric of Manc.

    Trams very heavily used every 6 mins, A56 rammed most of the day to and from town.

    Alty is a part of suburban Manc, more flats than Stretford, more flats than Chorlton, Didsbury and a whole heap of 'Manchester'

    Alty is actually very rich, there will be high car ownership as they are 15km from central Manc and going south the traffic isn't bad.

    But going North are trams for commuters and the M60 for the Trafford Centre, the idea that Alty has the same profile for transport provision as Nantwich is bonkers.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    edited October 2023

    Just logged on. Already bored with what is, or is not, a city.

    Is there any politics happening?

    Politics is happening but it is too depressing to talk about.

    Perhaps the value bet will be on a low turnout at the next GE.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,509
    Omnium said:

    So, given I'm now a political free agent, where on earth should my vote rest?

    I'm nearly persuaded that Labour offer the best choice - that, despite them being incompetent, disingenuous bad people.

    The LDs are clearly the most ghastly people in the world. Ed Davey?

    Greens - oh fuck off.

    I really have no idea - clearly none of the above.

    The worst argument for democracy may be, according to Churchill, a five minute conversation with the average voter.

    The next worst is five years studying the people they elect.
  • Just logged on. Already bored with what is, or is not, a city.

    Is there any politics happening?

    It was roundabouts earlier. Not even magic ones!
  • another US House procedural roll call, previous one passed on strict party line, Reps yea, Dems no with limited number not voting (3 Reps and I think 8 Dems).

    Interestingly, at start of current roll call, one Republican is voting No along with the Dems.

    Republicans have nearly all voted, Democrats are taking their sweet time, no doubt on purpose.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited October 2023
    O/T

    Anyone else going to see the 50th anniversary showing of The Exorcist? Mark Kermode's favourite film, BBC film critic.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    edited October 2023
    I have now had a chance to watch the Suella Braverman speech.

    I do not take pleasure in saying this because it was full of the usual divisive rhetoric she has taken to delivering, but it was very, very well delivered. That is not a speech she could have delivered that well 18 months ago. She has clearly taken coaching, and learned from it.

    I suspect, rather worryingly, we are looking at the next Tory leader. The narrative is there - ‘I wanted to sort all this out, Rishi stopped me. I said all this at the time I was Home Secretary, the Blob was too squeamish.’ If you’d asked me 6 months ago who I thought would win in a contest between Braverman, Mordaunt and Badenoch I’d have suggested the latter. Now I’m pretty convinced Braverman will be able to sell the culture war stuff to the membership even better than Badenoch can. Buckle in.
  • .

    Alty is intrinsically economically and socially linked into the Manc urban area.

    As much as Ealing is to London.

    The term town is utterly meaningless today, Alty was founded as a town in 1290 (from memory) today it's part of the urban fabric of Manc.

    Trams very heavily used every 6 mins, A56 rammed most of the day to and from town.

    Alty is a part of suburban Manc, more flats than Stretford, more flats than Chorlton, Didsbury and a whole heap of 'Manchester'

    Alty is actually very rich, there will be high car ownership as they are 15km from central Manc and going south the traffic isn't bad.

    But going North are trams for commuters and the M60 for the Trafford Centre, the idea that Alty has the same profile for transport provision as Nantwich is bonkers.
    I never even mentioned Nantwich! Nantwich is not a suburban town unlike any of the others I named.

    Yes Altrincham is completely different to Nantwich but it's also different to the city of Manchester. You can commute into the city, or stay in the town, or go away from the city all quite easily.

    Either way though it's a bit moot. Whether we count Alty or not doesn't change the overall point originally made. More of the population of the North West live in suburban towns than in the cities.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    I have now had a chance to watch the Suella Braverman speech.

    I do not take pleasure in saying this because it was full of the usual divisive rhetoric she has taken to delivering, but it was very, very well delivered. That is not a speech she could have delivered that well 18 months ago. She has clearly taken coaching, and learned from it.

    I suspect, rather worryingly, we are looking at the next Tory leader. The narrative is there - ‘I wanted to sort all this out, Rishi stopped me. I said all this at the time I was Home Secretary, the Blob was too squeamish.’ If you’d asked me 6 months ago who I thought would win in a contest between Braverman, Mordaunt and Badenoch I’d have suggested the latter. Now I’m pretty convinced Braverman will be able to sell the culture war stuff to the membership even better than Badenoch can. Buckle in.

    Very hard to see Braverman ever winning a GE though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,774
    A message for Nick from the Democratic Socialists of America…

    http://www.ericlee.info/dsa/
    … The message I got from everyone could not have been clearer: The Ukrainian labor movement and Left stand fully against the Russian invasion. They want and expect solidarity from the labor movement and Left in other countries. They enormously appreciate everything from solidarity gestures such as the visits of leading trade unionists, including the American Federation of Teachers’ president Randi Weingarten, and donations from unions ranging from generators to much-needed bandages.

    Despite the differences, I still see this conflict as the Spanish Civil War of our time. The many young men and women who have come to Ukraine to join the fight are inspiring in the way that the International Brigades were some 90 years ago. The Spanish Republic was defeated in large part because many democracies failed to come to its aid, while the fascists were fully backed by Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy. Will the same thing happen in Ukraine?

    Putin’s regime is a fascist one, and the war on Ukraine is an illegal, imperialist war. Ukraine is not a perfect society, and its government is not a perfect government. Nor was the Spanish Republic. But in the fight against fascism, we need to ask ourselves, to paraphrase the old song, which side are we on?..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682
    edited October 2023
    PGMOL have released the audio of the Luis Diaz goal.

    Absolute shit show, the VAR and AVAR froze whilst the TV operator was the only one who realised the fuck up as the VAR was keen to get the match restarted ASAP, the AVAR did fuck all.

    https://www.premierleague.com/news/3718057

    BBC have a transcript.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/66998252
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307

    Very hard to see Braverman ever winning a GE though.
    We hope.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,607
    Does a place have a cathedral? If not, it’s not a city, despite stupid popularity competitions to make places feel better
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    I have now had a chance to watch the Suella Braverman speech.

    I do not take pleasure in saying this because it was full of the usual divisive rhetoric she has taken to delivering, but it was very, very well delivered. That is not a speech she could have delivered that well 18 months ago. She has clearly taken coaching, and learned from it.

    I suspect, rather worryingly, we are looking at the next Tory leader. The narrative is there - ‘I wanted to sort all this out, Rishi stopped me. I said all this at the time I was Home Secretary, the Blob was too squeamish.’ If you’d asked me 6 months ago who I thought would win in a contest between Braverman, Mordaunt and Badenoch I’d have suggested the latter. Now I’m pretty convinced Braverman will be able to sell the culture war stuff to the membership even better than Badenoch can. Buckle in.

    Both Priti Patel and Kemi Badenoch will be annoyed by the speech, because it makes their chances of winning the next Tory leadership election more difficult.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414

    The US has Ralph’s, Vons and Trader Joe’s



    Trader Joe's is very like M&S - right down to almost everything being private label.

    (Except, I guess, Trader Joe's has more weird shit.)

    Ralph's is Sainsburys. Vons is Vons.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Truss: The Movie

    The rights have been sold for a dramatization of Harry Cole and James Heale’s pacey chronicle of Truss’ brief spell in No. 10, and several SW1 insiders have been tapped up by the team working on the project for further details about pivotal scenes.

    https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/still-holding-the-train-line/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    I have now had a chance to watch the Suella Braverman speech.

    I do not take pleasure in saying this because it was full of the usual divisive rhetoric she has taken to delivering, but it was very, very well delivered. That is not a speech she could have delivered that well 18 months ago. She has clearly taken coaching, and learned from it.

    I suspect, rather worryingly, we are looking at the next Tory leader. The narrative is there - ‘I wanted to sort all this out, Rishi stopped me. I said all this at the time I was Home Secretary, the Blob was too squeamish.’ If you’d asked me 6 months ago who I thought would win in a contest between Braverman, Mordaunt and Badenoch I’d have suggested the latter. Now I’m pretty convinced Braverman will be able to sell the culture war stuff to the membership even better than Badenoch can. Buckle in.

    I will not vote for a Braverman led Conservative Party. It’s not so much a step too far as a different planet.
  • PGMOL have released the audio of the Luis Diaz goal.

    Absolute shit show, the VAR and AVAR froze whilst the TV operator was the only one who realised the fuck up as the VAR was keen to get the match restarted ASAP, the AVAR did fuck all.

    https://www.premierleague.com/news/3718057

    BBC have a transcript.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/66998252

    Not sure which is the bigger shit show - that transcript or Conservative Party Conference.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1709271137568354685?s=46&t=2iv1prQ4P8HyMrM-UX0Dig

    “NEW “cancelling HS2 would be a major act of economic self-sabotage and damage our international standing as a place to do business.” Say some major businesses with big presences in the North … including Kraftheinz, bruntwood, Manchester Airports Group and Manchester United”

    ..guess what option the Tories have decided to go for.
  • Carnyx said:

    Removing wigs and gowns is SOP with child cases if it seems necessary to conduct the trial, as I understand it. It's not specific to this case at all. And it also removes one possbile ground of appeal.
    A friend who sits in the Family Division says the kids love it when he puts his wig on because it makes him look like Santa Claus.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414

    Trader Joe's is literally Aldi. Its a limited selection of every changing goods made under licensing agreements to white label goods. All supermarkets do this to some extent now, but that isn't comparable to say a Sainsbury's supermarket.

    If I remember correctly Vons is just Safeway, but in California.
    Trader Joe's is not Aldi.

    Trader Joe's is - price-wise - only a small step down from Whole Foods. It's customer base is young urban professionals, and if you look where they have stores it is in the wealthier parts of large US cities.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    I have now had a chance to watch the Suella Braverman speech.

    I do not take pleasure in saying this because it was full of the usual divisive rhetoric she has taken to delivering, but it was very, very well delivered. That is not a speech she could have delivered that well 18 months ago. She has clearly taken coaching, and learned from it.

    I suspect, rather worryingly, we are looking at the next Tory leader. The narrative is there - ‘I wanted to sort all this out, Rishi stopped me. I said all this at the time I was Home Secretary, the Blob was too squeamish.’ If you’d asked me 6 months ago who I thought would win in a contest between Braverman, Mordaunt and Badenoch I’d have suggested the latter. Now I’m pretty convinced Braverman will be able to sell the culture war stuff to the membership even better than Badenoch can. Buckle in.

    With Truss as shadow CoE? That's a team to tickle some tummies.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    Just logged on. Already bored with what is, or is not, a city.

    Is there any politics happening?

    In England and Wales it's easy to figure out if you live in a city or a town. If your area voted Remain you live in a city. If it voted Leave you live in a town. And yes, Birmingham is a town.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited October 2023
    Good evening

    Beth Rigby now reporting HS2 will go from Euston to Manchester but switch onto
    normal tracks at Birmingham

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1709267341391909200?t=uXDmRnEvXLeNDALmRRfvnw&s=19
  • DavidL said:

    I will not vote for a Braverman led Conservative Party. It’s not so much a step too far as a different planet.
    Farage will take over after her turn and save you.......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    I see Farage has been added to BF's list of next tory leader.

    Pretty sure he wasn't there on list yesterday.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414

    What's a rural gap got to do with anything?

    Yes its an urban lump, I said that. Warrington is in that urban lump, sandwiched between Liverpool and Manchester. You can drive contiguously from Liverpool to Widnes to Warrington to Leigh to Manchester (or other routes) without ever getting into rural areas.

    But that doesn't make Warrington, or Widnes, or Leigh, or Altrincham cities. They're suburban towns in the suburbs of cities.
    Phew: this is a difficult one.

    Golders Green could well be described as a suburban town in the surburbs of London. But I think we'd all say it was part of London. But what about Bromley?

    And if we're sticking with Manchester, what about Didsbury? Part of Manchester, no?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677
    edited October 2023
    nico679 said:

    Jeez . There really is no hope for the Tories . He was seen as a moderate but looks like he’s also now completely sold his soul.
    It's a remake of Faust, where he offers his soul to the Devil, and the Devil says "Kind of you, but no thanks".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    Farage will take over after her turn and save you.......
    Nope. Won’t vote for him either.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948
    kinabalu said:

    With Truss as shadow CoE? That's a team to tickle some tummies.
    The most nauseating thing will be the attempted love in between LOTO Braverman and POTUS Donald Trump. Coming to a news bulletin near you in early 2025.
  • https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1709271137568354685?s=46&t=2iv1prQ4P8HyMrM-UX0Dig

    “NEW “cancelling HS2 would be a major act of economic self-sabotage and damage our international standing as a place to do business.” Say some major businesses with big presences in the North … including Kraftheinz, bruntwood, Manchester Airports Group and Manchester United”

    ..guess what option the Tories have decided to go for.

    Flub Business, by any chance?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    Good evening

    Beth Rigby now reporting HS2 will go from Euston to Manchester but switch onto
    normal tracks at Birmingham

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1709267341391909200?t=uXDmRnEvXLeNDALmRRfvnw&s=19

    HS2 will not go to Manchester if it runs on existing rails after Birmingham. Under that definition you could say that HS2 will go to Wick, if you ran an HS2 train all the way up there on existing tracks.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    Evening all :)

    Back from 12 days on a cruise down to the Canaries and back. A nice bit of late summer sunshine and I met a genuine Trump supporter and her husband from Florida. She was very keen on DJT pointing out he stood for "christian, family values". I pointed out he had the morals of a gutter rat and the language he used about women was disgraceful after which, for some reason, she stopped talking to me.

    On an American ship so average food (apart from the ribeye in the fine dining restaurant which was one of the best steaks I've had for a long time) and a bit "holiday camp" with "wakey wakey, eggs and baky" every morning. The ship, albeit from 2015, already looks dated compared with the newer offerings. Huge amounts of up-selling and I renamed it "Gouging of the Seas" which seemed more appropriate.

    It seems we've had Suella Braverman's pitch to the party - I can't remember if it was Straw or Blunkett who used the word "swamped" back in the day but it seems we have a "hurricane of migration" coming our way - a curious term given much of future migration might be driven by climate change.

    I'd love to read what Braverman actually said but I sense a speech long on rhetoric and short on specifics and solutions - most Conference speeches are in truth. Whether "Uxbridge Man" will lap it up or be faintly appalled by it I'm less certain. Starmer now has a clear opportunity to sound sensible and Prime Ministerial next week.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786

    Not sure which is the bigger shit show - that transcript or Conservative Party Conference.
    I think VAR would have reviewed the Conservative Party Conference and upgraded the yellow card to a red card. And Braverman would have been found to be well offside when she scored.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948

    Good evening

    Beth Rigby now reporting HS2 will go from Euston to Manchester but switch onto
    normal tracks at Birmingham

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1709267341391909200?t=uXDmRnEvXLeNDALmRRfvnw&s=19

    That’s interesting spin by them. HS2 will go to Manchester, but on the existing WCML and not at high speed. But it’ll still be HS2, honest.
  • DavidL said:

    Nope. Won’t vote for him either.
    Sounds like a long wait til the Piers Morgan takeover in 2029....
  • Taz said:
    So no WCML new capacity for the North?

    Levelling Up my arse!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Sounds like a long wait til the Piers Morgan takeover in 2029....
    Not long enough.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    kinabalu said:

    With Truss as shadow CoE? That's a team to tickle some tummies.
    Didn't Truss sack Braverman from the Home Office? We'd be looking at a rapprochement on a level with Molotov and Ribbentrop or Farage and the Conservative Party (too soon?).
  • nyt blog - Democrats are now voting by hand, with paper ballots, in an apparent effort to slow down this vote on a separate bill and buy more time for members to get here before the motion on ousting the speaker, Kevin McCarthy. There were five Democratic absences on the previous vote.

    roll call passed, then Greasy Gaetz moved his motion to vacate the office of Speaker, now another procedural vote.
  • I think VAR would have reviewed the Conservative Party Conference and upgraded the yellow card to a red card. And Braverman would have been found to be well offside when she scored.
    You have more faith than me in VAR.

    I think VAR would have reviewed the Conservative Party Conference and said no red for Davey, and found Starmer to be onside when he scored.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,228

    Does a place have a cathedral? If not, it’s not a city, despite stupid popularity competitions to make places feel better

    You need the Map Men to help you out

    https://youtu.be/Whqs8v1svyo?si=KjRZQiONQWz-qwtK
  • DavidL said:

    I will not vote for a Braverman led Conservative Party. It’s not so much a step too far as a different planet.
    It's like having concern and affection for a teenager intent on going off the rails.

    You can see it's going to end badly, possibly fatally, but there's nothing you can say or do to stop them. It would ge nice if they could wait until after their General Election loss before going full-on tonto, but that may be a luxury we don't deserve.

    Still eight years as a joke opposition doesn't take long. At least, not if you say it really quickly.
  • DavidL said:

    I will not vote for a Braverman led Conservative Party. It’s not so much a step too far as a different planet.
    +100%
  • +100%
    Nor will I or one with Farage
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,228

    Good evening

    Beth Rigby now reporting HS2 will go from Euston to Manchester but switch onto
    normal tracks at Birmingham

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1709267341391909200?t=uXDmRnEvXLeNDALmRRfvnw&s=19

    That's exactly the same as cancelling the Manchester section!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,312

    @Leon

    One of the earliest and most lifelike examples of a human sculpture – depicting a man holding his phallus with both hands – has been uncovered by archaeologists in Turkey.

    The unusual 7.5ft (2.3m)-tall statue was discovered at a prehistoric site known as Karahan Tepe

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-12589389/Unusual-statue-featuring-frontal-depiction-man-holding-phallus-hands-discovered-near-Mesolithic-temple-Turkey.html

    (adopts Inbetweeners accent)

    Statue Wankaaahhh!
  • CatMan said:

    That's exactly the same as cancelling the Manchester section!
    Or reinstating the Yorkshire section. It can be spun either way.
  • .
    CatMan said:

    That's exactly the same as cancelling the Manchester section!
    Just think how many billions they could have saved if they'd ran HS2 on WCML track from Birmingham to London too.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Trader Joe's is not Aldi.

    Trader Joe's is - price-wise - only a small step down from Whole Foods. It's customer base is young urban professionals, and if you look where they have stores it is in the wealthier parts of large US cities.
    Not sure I'd call the U-District in Seattle "the wealthier part" of Seattle but in general your point is correct.

    As for "ever changing" am pretty sure you can go to the nearest Trader Joe's and find a bag of chocolate covered nuts, just like a decade or more ago.

    Of course, whose nuts are getting covered with what, is as always problematic.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    There's an opportunity for Liz Truss to don her hard hat and lead a pro-HS2 rebellion.
  • @HYUFD has predicted the conservative party will turn right post GE24 defeat and we are seeing it on full view in Manchester
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272

    I have now had a chance to watch the Suella Braverman speech.

    I do not take pleasure in saying this because it was full of the usual divisive rhetoric she has taken to delivering, but it was very, very well delivered. That is not a speech she could have delivered that well 18 months ago. She has clearly taken coaching, and learned from it.

    I suspect, rather worryingly, we are looking at the next Tory leader. The narrative is there - ‘I wanted to sort all this out, Rishi stopped me. I said all this at the time I was Home Secretary, the Blob was too squeamish.’ If you’d asked me 6 months ago who I thought would win in a contest between Braverman, Mordaunt and Badenoch I’d have suggested the latter. Now I’m pretty convinced Braverman will be able to sell the culture war stuff to the membership even better than Badenoch can. Buckle in.

    I agree. Badenoch and Patel are left in her wake as the SS Culture War speeds on. I have put a few quid on her. She clearly intends to run.
  • NYT - in US House, motion to table Gaetz motion to vacate, is currently losing

    Cory Mills of Florida just voted against tabling the motion, bringing the total of Republican no votes on this to 11.

    Representative Lauren Boebert, one of the conservative Republican rebels, is seated next to Representative Matt Gaetz in the chamber. She has her card in her hand and hasn’t voted yet. She appears to be waiting until the end to cast her vote.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948

    +100%
    I’m not sure Braverman will be popular even among core Tory voters to be honest. They generally need to pass the would you have a drink in the pub with them test (she’d flunk that, unlike fellow traveler Farage), or the do you respect them like your old head teacher test (which May managed, as did Thatcher and Howard).

    I could imagine having a drink or two down the pub with Truss. It would be a bit surreal but possibly good entertainment. Braverman, no. I think her role will be forever as the hard line enforcer who says the things the leader dare not.
  • Taz said:
    Sounds like they made up on the back of a post-it note over morning coffee....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    TimS said:

    That’s interesting spin by them. HS2 will go to Manchester, but on the existing WCML and not at high speed. But it’ll still be HS2, honest.
    To bw fair, Crossrail (the Elizabeth Line) runs on pre-exiting track from Shenfield to Stratford and then diverts on to the "new bit" to Paddington and rejoins the pre-existing line west of Paddington.

    It's a common tactic (Croydon Tramlink did the same in places). The suggestions for the north-south cross-London link (HS3?) use a lot of existing track with the main construction new tunnels in the capital.

    The question then becomes whether you can offer something better than what currently exists - it doesn't have to be quicker butn it has to be reliable and a decent experience for the passenger.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    Sunak is just so utterly shit. I thought Truss was a disaster, and predicted that. But had thought Sunak was better

    My god, how wrong I was…
  • ...
    image
  • NYT - Speaker Kevin McCarthy has lost the vote to kill Representatives Matt Gaetz’s bid to oust him, 208 to 218. That tees an up-or-down vote to remove McCarthy.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948

    Sounds like they made up on the back of a post-it note over morning coffee....
    Look out for the third Heathrow runway on existing aviation-ready tarmac just outside the village of Stansted in Essex.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,301
    Braverman and Farage clearly belong in the same party. He might be considered a bit too much of a moderate to be in her shadow cabinet, but I'm sure it'll be a broad church.

    The election really can't come soon enough. The Tories have shifted from plodding along with managed decline in their last year or so in office, to bring a strange loony right amalgamation that actively seeks to damage the UK's long-term prospects.

    It'll be a long 12 months.
  • It is appalling.

    And shows how this country is governed. After nearly a generation of politicians voting to build HS2, with all the key regional players like A Street on board, a PM can have a bit of a whim and cancel half of the project in the space of a week.

    It wasnt even really the PM. It was the previous PM who was so bad she was outlasted by the lettuce who demanded it was cancelled and Rishi was and is too weak to ignore her.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485

    @HYUFD has predicted the conservative party will turn right post GE24 defeat and we are seeing it on full view in Manchester

    This is the bit I don't get. Parties, after long periods in power, go into opposition and seem hippo-like to enjoy a good wallow in the comfy futility thereof.

    There comes a point when a party collectively "comes to its senses" and realises the point isn't self-indulgence but trying to provide good governance to improve the lot of the country and every citizen.

    It wouldn't surprise me if a future Conservative leader threw Braverman out of the party for being too extreme.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,366
    edited October 2023

    It is appalling.

    And shows how this country is governed. After nearly a generation of politicians voting to build HS2, with all the key regional players like A Street on board, a PM can have a bit of a whim and cancel half of the project in the space of a week.

    Not just that, but a Prime Minister with the thinnest democratic mandate of any modern PM ever.

    Not chosen by the people.
    Not chosen by his party, except by default.

    Not even the "oh, he's bound to take over" semi endorsement Brown had.

    And yet Sunak sees fit to rip up a pile of consensus with zero reference to Parliament, who will at best be asked to rubber stamp decisions he has made inside the No 10 bubble. Because he thinks he knows better.

    The arrogant little sh...
    ine up your buttons with Brasso,
    It's only three Bob a tin.
    You can buy it or nick it at Woolie's
    But I doubt that they'll have any in.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565
    Speaker Kevin McCarthy has lost the vote to kill Representative Matt Gaetz’s bid to oust him, 208 to 218. That tees an up-or-down vote to remove McCarthy.

    NY Times blog
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    NYT - Speaker Kevin McCarthy has lost the vote to kill Representatives Matt Gaetz’s bid to oust him, 208 to 218. That tees an up-or-down vote to remove McCarthy.

    He doesn’t deserve support. His futile attempts to ameliorate these nutters condemns him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565

    "We're not just stopping the boats, we're stopping the trains as well!"
    Why do we need trains?

    None of them goes to a heliport as far as I know.

    The car is best.
  • Speaker Kevin McCarthy has lost the vote to kill Representative Matt Gaetz’s bid to oust him, 208 to 218. That tees an up-or-down vote to remove McCarthy.

    NY Times blog

    Why would the Democrats side with Gaetz?

    Embarrass McCarthy by voting en-bloc with him.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,106
    You couldn’t make this up..

    https://x.com/louhaigh/status/1709280357382492196?s=46&t=2iv1prQ4P8HyMrM-UX0Dig

    The Conservatives literally rubbished this idea in their own rail plan.

    And GM warned it could actually make things worse by *increasing* delays on the West Coast Mainline

    Only the Conservatives could draw up a plan that could actually make northern transport worse than before.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414

    ...
    image

    Someone's been reading PB: that was literally my comment from two days ago.
  • stodge said:

    This is the bit I don't get. Parties, after long periods in power, go into opposition and seem hippo-like to enjoy a good wallow in the comfy futility thereof.

    There comes a point when a party collectively "comes to its senses" and realises the point isn't self-indulgence but trying to provide good governance to improve the lot of the country and every citizen.

    It wouldn't surprise me if a future Conservative leader threw Braverman out of the party for being too extreme.
    Not really sure how they get there. And influences from the nutty part of the right abroad in US and closer to home in Europe will legitimise the likes of Braverman, Farage et al to the party members.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    Sunak is just so utterly shit. I thought Truss was a disaster, and predicted that. But had thought Sunak was better

    My god, how wrong I was…

    Maybe Leon was right all along: Truss is surprising on the upside, in comparison to her successor.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189
    edited October 2023

    Why would the Democrats side with Gaetz?

    Embarrass McCarthy by voting en-bloc with him.
    They want to show that the GOP is an ungovernable shambles not fit to run the proverbial whelk stall. And lots of other obvious things.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    DavidL said:

    He doesn’t deserve support. His futile attempts to ameliorate these nutters condemns him.
    But what comes next?
  • DavidL said:

    He doesn’t deserve support. His futile attempts to ameliorate these nutters condemns him.
    I don't agree.

    He tried to ameliorate the nutters, but he didn't let America go over the cliff and ultimately sided with the Democrats to get a bill through before time ran out even though he couldn't carry Gaetz and other loons.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,244
    stodge said:

    To bw fair, Crossrail (the Elizabeth Line) runs on pre-exiting track from Shenfield to Stratford and then diverts on to the "new bit" to Paddington and rejoins the pre-existing line west of Paddington.

    It's a common tactic (Croydon Tramlink did the same in places). The suggestions for the north-south cross-London link (HS3?) use a lot of existing track with the main construction new tunnels in the capital.
    That's true, but both Crossrail and Tramlink have (near) exclusive use of those lines. There's a few bits of freight on the GWML when you get some way out of Paddington, and the occasional GWR semi-fasts cross over from the mains to the reliefs at Slough, but Crossrail absolutely dominates the reliefs.

    That isn't going to be the case for Birmingham-Manchester, which is already congested. The HS2 express, after travelling on an alignment engineered for 400km/h between London and Birmingham, will have to follow the 60mph Northern stopper along the suburban lines into Manchester. Absolutely ludicrous.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    TimS said:

    I’m not sure it would lead to civil war anymore. The Tory centre is much weaker vs the hard right than the Labour centre were vs the Corbynites. The latter were able to achieve a counterrevolution pretty quickly. I can’t see any way back for the centre-right in the Tory party, it seems to have achieved GOP escape velocity.
    'A counterrevolution pretty quickly?' Starmer only got elected after FOUR consecutive Labour general election defeats and a Labour party moving progressively left from Blair to Brown to Ed Miliband to Corbyn who was not only elected Labour leader in 2015 but won re election as leader in 2016 despite most Labour MPs opposing him (which wouldn't be possible in the Tory party as Truss and IDS discovered) and despite leading Labour to defeat in 2017 stayed on as leader until leadlng them to landslide defeat in 2019
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,189

    But what comes next?
    Hopefully a mess where the GOP cannot select a new Speaker until they are thrown out of office.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,778
    rcs1000 said:

    Trader Joe's is very like M&S - right down to almost everything being private label.

    (Except, I guess, Trader Joe's has more weird shit.)

    Ralph's is Sainsburys. Vons is Vons.
    I know… which is why I suggested them
    :smile:

    None of this Ezekiel ‘4:9 overpriced muck for me…
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,565

    Sounds like they made up on the back of a post-it note over morning coffee....
    How will they fit all these extra trains on existing track??

    What about freight?

    If they could fit more trains on existing track why is there a capacity fucking issue?

    Jeez. It is enough to make you weep.

    A PM pulls an all-nighter with a couple of spreadsheets and a coke and wrecks an entire generation of rail capacity planning.

This discussion has been closed.