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A LAB majority stays at a near 65% betting chance – politicalbetting.com
A LAB majority stays at a near 65% betting chance – politicalbetting.com
Starmer’s party, which hasn’t been getting much attention recently, is retaining its position in the next general election betting and is rated as a 65% chance of achieving an overall majority.
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Edit: First
And welcome back, Mike.
London Tory mayoral candidate Susan Hall was due to be on a conference fringe right now - but is mysteriously not. I wonder if it’s linked to her much-criticised comments last night that London’s Jewish communities are “frightened” about “divisive” Sadiq Khan.
Americans certainly do like cheese. If you go to a Walmart there will be aisles and aisles of it - but it will all be about 3 varieties - Jack, Monterey Jack, versions of cheddar. “Philadelphia” - the rest will be different forms of this with different shapes, processing and added bits
What they don’t have is a sophisticated market for cheese nor a taste for runny, pungent, blue, or goaty cheese - ie all the best stuff
But this used to be true of American beer. It used to be universally shit and gassy and pasteurised. Now they have one of the best beer cultures in the world and you can get excellent craft IPA anywhere in the country - a much better selection than most European countries (which will have 3 or 4 predictable beers)
So they may wise up to cheese in a similar way
Kiwi protectionists used to make the same arguments as to why scrapping agricultural subsidies would be a terrible idea. Instead they're major exporters without subsidies now.
If protectionism and subsidies were abolished then the land our farmers use won't suddenly and magically vanish overnight. They'll find productive ways to use the land, just as the Kiwis have, and there will always be some willing to pay for a union flag to be stamped on their product anyway.
More choice is good for consumers, and our land being used productively is good for us as a country and ultimately for farmers too, even if they want to take the easy way out of protectionism instead.
When I did my one of these "corrupt" was much bigger and "useless" much smaller. Which suggests people now think they're too incompetent to manage much corruption.
Trump campaign calls on RNC to cancel third GOP debate
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4235076-trump-campaign-calls-on-rnc-to-cancel-third-gop-debate/
Expect the same for the general election.
If he's the nominee.
On
@skynews
now. Our sitdown with the PM
- GE is "not what the country wants"
- On HS2, PM is "not going to get forced into making premature decisions"
- PM denies conf been chaotic & says people have "a spring in their step
- Will you be PM after the next election? “Of course"
It’s worse than that.
Last time I was there someone tried to sell me Gruyere-style Cheddar
*shudders*
I suspect that the big North - South divide isn't so much in the rates of ownership as in the milages driven. I'd expect to discover that many more people actually use their cars to commute every day in the North, as opposed cars just used for the odd run out to the shops and to take the kids to see the grandparents at the weekend.
My maternal grandparents lived in Bexleyheath, had a car, and only really used it on the weekend - they caught the train to work. That's going to be much more typical in the South than the North.
As an aside - my town has a good train service to Manchester. Thanks to perverse ticket pricing structures, most Manchester bound commuters drive parallel to the railway for 5 miles and then catch the train from a station slightly nearer Manchester, as the season tickets from there are around half the price...
I think Trump will be more than happy to debate Biden - I think Trump views himself as more capable a debater than Biden, and it would be a useful way to show that Biden is older than Trump in a way that goes into how they present each other. Part of that is energy levels, and in that sense Trump (and even other old politicians like Sanders) does come across as significantly younger than Biden.
And what is it with Americans and IPA? Do they have a history of exporting ale to the sub-continent?
"This was meant to be the Rishi reset, but it's turning into the Rishi shambles" - Sky's
@BethRigby
"I just don't agree with that characterisation" -
@RishiSunak
The prime minister adds that people he's met "have got a spring in their step".
http://trib.al/YKanzN3
In fact most supermarket food in America is seriously bad compared to the west European equivalent. Even if you go to whole foods or a deli you can struggle (and you will pay $$$$$)
The beer is great tho. And the wine is good
Milk in plastic bags
Sticks of butter
(But honestly. What else was he going to say?)
On topic, isn't Labour needing a 7% lead very sensitive to the tactical and Scottish situations?
Both of those were almost as bad as they could be for the red team in 2019.
The answer is, unfortunately, obvious. Whatever Republican hard-liners may say, they want Putin to win. They view the Putin regime’s cruelty and repression as admirable features that America should emulate. They support a wannabe dictator at home and are sympathetic to actual dictators abroad.
So pay no attention to all those complaints about how much we’re spending in Ukraine. They aren’t justified by the actual cost of aid, and the people claiming to be worried about the cost don’t really care about the money. What they are, basically, is enemies of democracy, both abroad and at home.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/02/opinion/columnists/maga-republicans-ukraine.html
Yes and using the same definition of North (North West, North East, Yorkshire and the Humber) and South (South West, South East and London) we get the following for commuters.
North: 74.3% drive
South: 57.3% drive
Proving conclusively once and for all that Northerners primarily drive. Though incidentally so too do Southerners.
Incidentally once more its not a North/South divide as much as a London/everyone else divide. South West and South East exc London are almost indistinguishable from the North (even including Liverpool/Manchester) at 75% too.
Realistically, three quarters drive around the entire country (with walking being primary alternative for non-drivers) everywhere except London where the roads are appalling.
Thankfully here in the North we aren't herded about like cattle in London and piled high with most being unable to either have their own transportation or a home of their own.
Not sure why its not done here, although notably it is for commercial usage (eg Starbucks etc)
But of course it wont be "premature" when he announces it in 24 hours time.
So it basically boils down to a lack of decent public transport provision if mileage is greater in the north (I assume so). If we also assume that public transport needs a certain level of population density to be sustainable, then we find huge variance across England. Birmingham and suburbs bad, Newcastle and suburbs good.
Basically it was people on the west coast of US that brought this type of beer back to life in the 70/80s, and incorporated varieties of hops that can grown abundantly there.
Then NEIPA, is obviously New England's / East Coast version of this that came much more recently.
Compared to the watered down crap like Bud they had been drinking for past 100+ years, not surprising it took hold.
Everyone else gets to drive, which is better.
Now look at home ownership rates?
In the narrow sense a tactical voter is the one who votes for a party not their first choice because they wish to keep out another, third, party.
In the wide sense it is everyone who when they vote, whatever their personal affiliations, in seats that can possibly change hands (so not Bootle, but at the moment is predicted to be a huge number of seats) will only vote for a candidate who can win. In most such seats that is two candidates.
I think the first group is quite small, and the second group is many millions, including lots who hardly realise they are doing it. But that is only a guess.
The truth is probably a bit of a mixture. If Manchester's suburbs had the quality of public transport that London has, probably more people would use it. At the same time, if the South had the largely useable roads we have in the North, far more people would drive instead of using public transport.
FWIW, I commuted by train from Stockport to Macclesfield for a while around 2009. I had pretty much perfect circumstances - I lived 2 minutes walk from the station at one end, worked 5 mins walk at the other end. I eventually stopped and took to driving because the train cost about £7 a day, and it was actually cheaper (and no slower) to drive the journey in a 1970s diesel landrover.
See also its appallingly low home ownership rates, the appallingly high housing costs etc - hence why Londoners like @CorrectHorseBattery3 are always moaning.
Get to the chopper, get to London, then safely announce it away from Manchester. Because that makes everything better.
Cheese Arrives - 1941
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOSM2DXY25M
It came from an ancient Cincinnati immigrant German brewery recipe, revived on the east coast. By 2000 these beers were all over the USA
Also, at this stage, I'm not sure pretending that, no, genuinely, TWELVE YEARS since we committed to this project, we just need another COUPLE OF DAYS to get the decision right is a better look. ~AA
Likewise on the continent, certainly in France and Spain (Germany a bit more of a fractured market plus Aldi and Lidl). And in France it's really difficult to discern which are the u or non-u chains. Much less of a class system in French supermarkets: Auchan, Leclerc, Carrefour, Intermarche: more variation between stores than between chains.
In case you've never seen the style of plastic bag basically its a thin plastic cellophane (?) style bag. You'd typically have a solid plastic dispenser you'd keep in the door of your fridge and you could either put the bag into the dispenser, cutting a corner off the bag with a pair of scissors or empty the bag out into it. Then pour as normal from the dispenser like you would a bottle here, washing it out when done.
Less plastic waste, although of course that style of plastic isn't recyclable and hard plastic is better, so not sure which is more environmentally friendly.
If you go to somewhere like France or Spain you will get three types of lager and that’s your lot. It will be pleasant cold lager but that’s it
https://www.gaylesbakery.com/
And their key lime pie to die for.
** EXCLUSIVE **
Rishi Sunak does not rule out Nigel Farage joining the Tory Party, saying the party is a “broad church”
I sometimes think this conference is simply designed to drive the last moderate Tories out. The Conservative Party was the traditional defender of small family farms and rural traditions. How is this globalised hormone-pumped rhetoric conservative?
Even counting leasehold 'ownership', the rates in overcrowded London are much worse than the rest of the country, just as their roads are.
We need to invest in towns and cities across the country, give Londoners the opportunity to move elsewhere and find a home of their own as well as being able to enjoy the freedom of the open road the rest of the nation enjoys.
Farage LOTO after next election. Get your bets on.
Congestion at Chester will continue to increase.
@PhilipJCollins1
What a wretchedly stupid party the Conservative party has become.
It's going to be the big reveal tomorrow, isn't it?
Stupid idea, but stupid is as stupid does...
http://www.brasseriedecluny.fr/
Most restaurants in the area serve their beers. Taste-wise they are very much standard US craft beer, though most tend to do one or two Belgian style strong varieties too.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead has grown to eighteen percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 26% (-2)
Lab 44% (-)
Lib Dem 12% (+2)
Other 18% (-)
Fieldwork: 29 September - 2 October 2023
Sample: 1,516 GB adults
(Changes from 22nd-25th September 2023)
Imagine the carnage GOPUK could wreak if they were disciplined and industrious.
Oh, we do...
If you travel the world like I do (and I always go into supermarkets coz I find then fascinating) you soon learn that mainstream Western European supermarkets - Sainsbury’s, Leclerc, M&S, Carrefour, Corte d’Ingles etc - are the best in the world for variety and freshness of produce
I’d love to see the Tories lose here but, nationally and locally, it is hard to see how Labour could have done less to win over my vote.
My vote would be Portugal...I have been to Lisbon, Porto, Silver Coast, down the Atlantic coast and across the Algarve, and its seems all you can get is Super Bock, Sagres, Cristal, and they are all bloody awful.
Its like if you went into a pub here and all you could buy was Carling.
That's a new junction in Preston near the city centre with free flowing bikes, cars and pedestrians after the A59 flyover was recently built to relieve the car traffic. The green FYI is cycling paths that are physically segregated from cars (as you can see by the yellow lines if its not clear) and pedestrians too.
Of course our very own @Eabhal highlighted Preston as a city with high active travel, but quickly went quiet as a mouse when he realised why that is.
Last time, they had a big boost to the Conservatives, and some people got awfully excited that the petrol car preservation stuff was cutting through.
I am cautiously optimistic that I live in a country where a simple majority of people will not vote to make Farage PM. But if I live in a country where 40% of the voting electorate can vote to make Corbyn PM then anything is possible.
One thing that has helped in the US (and doesn't exist here, which is aiding the proliferation of ersatz 'craft beer' from the macros) is a legal industry definition of 'craft beer' linked to the volume produced and the independence of the company. So when e.g. AB InBev buy out Goose Island, they can no longer call it 'craft beer'.
*That the Brewdog founders worked at Thornbridge before setting up on their own is entirely coincidental.
I would think East the better Labour prospect.
Greens may fancy a crack too
As I said I need the report but I think it was something like the frequency of the service needs to 12 minutes or less...
I think Brewdog tried to do that leap, but in doing so have cost engineered their beers and of course knackered their supposed principled stance, ruining what actually got them started in the first place.
Edit: Actually - make that plain blindness.
Green: 6
Ref: 5 (but unprompted UKIP is 2!)
SNP: 3
PC: 1
So LLG 62 vs RefCon 31