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The Mid-Beds betting remains very tight – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,622
edited October 2023 in General
imageThe Mid-Beds betting remains very tight – politicalbetting.com

I cannot recall a Westminster by-election betting market which has been as tight as that on Mid Beds.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,985
    Malmesbury said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Benpointer said:

    O/T This is a bit stark.

    image

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/66957427

    The y-axis should start at 0
    0 celsius is pretty arbitrary, so I assume you mean Kelvin.
    0 Kelvin is just some arbitrary value, based on the way the structure of the universe happened to coalesce after the Big Bang.
    The Big Bang is a pretty arbitrary point in time to measure from.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,265
    Mid-Beds might have been impacted by the LibDems being away at conference during the week. Fewer activists on the ground; no compensating media impact from Ed Davey and the rest fail to break through.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,849
    I'm still backing the LDs in Mid Beds, based on their famous by-election machine.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,265
    James Cleverly says Donald Trump did 'very surprising and positive things in international relations'
    https://news.sky.com/story/james-cleverly-says-donald-trump-did-very-surprising-and-positive-things-in-international-relations-12972554
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,331
    rcs1000 said:

    Malmesbury said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Benpointer said:

    O/T This is a bit stark.

    image

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/66957427

    The y-axis should start at 0
    0 celsius is pretty arbitrary, so I assume you mean Kelvin.
    0 Kelvin is just some arbitrary value, based on the way the structure of the universe happened to coalesce after the Big Bang.
    The Big Bang is a pretty arbitrary point in time to measure from.
    No planing documentation on the Big Bang available. No safety case.

    Obviously a cowboy operation.

    Basing public policy on that?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,102
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    James Cleverly says Donald Trump did 'very surprising and positive things in international relations'
    https://news.sky.com/story/james-cleverly-says-donald-trump-did-very-surprising-and-positive-things-in-international-relations-12972554

    Too cleverly done for me to understand.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,102
    Well knock me over with a feather, RFK Jr is raising Republican dark money to run attack ads on President Biden.
    https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1707832510778843534
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,102
    Milley takes swipe at ‘wannabe dictator’ Trump in retirement speech
    Milley takes swipe at ‘wannabe dictator’ Trump in retirement speech
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,043
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    James Cleverly says Donald Trump did 'very surprising and positive things in international relations'
    https://news.sky.com/story/james-cleverly-says-donald-trump-did-very-surprising-and-positive-things-in-international-relations-12972554

    File under he has to say that as chief diplomat. These kind of lies are fine with me - very surprising is pretty much code for imbecilic in this context anyway.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,052
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still backing the LDs in Mid Beds, based on their famous by-election machine.

    I've greened up but have got my big play on Labour.

    The LDs aren't magicians and aren't doing anything special other parties can't do or don't know.

    Their main advantage is just that they can be all things to all men.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,052
    FPT - we are going to have to geoengineer and pull/suck whatever excess CO2 is currently in the atmosphere out again.

    Net Zero by 2050 isn't going to be enough.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,569
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TSE moonlighting as editor of the Daily Star shock

    The deviants are those who don't have bits of fruit on their pizza.

    #tomatoesarenotavegetable
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,515
    On Sycamore Gap:

    If they find the culprit(s), what crime(s) could they be charged with?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,513
    @kitty_donaldson

    EXC: While many in the Conservative Party had assumed Liz Truss simply wants to remain influential following her chaotic stint as prime minister, her ambitions are rather higher - she’s thinking of running again to lead…
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 1,017
    Was in Mid Beds last Sunday - two of us called on (or leafletted if out ) all postal voters in a village. Labour were also there about 8 of them all in a group milling about.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,954
    Level green here.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,106
    McCarthy failed to deliver a budget plan that would have prevented a shutdown of the Federal government which will start at midnight tonight US time. It is getting to the point that this absurd dislocation of the world's largest economy barely even makes the headlines anymore.

    Even McCarthy says that there are around 20 GOP Congressmen and women who "just want to burn it all down". Attempts to assuage this band by cuts that Biden has said he will veto have still not resulted in them voting for it. The US Congress is currently making our remainer Parliament 2017-19 look healthily democratic. Surely there will be a price to pay for this.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,564
    DavidL said:

    McCarthy failed to deliver a budget plan that would have prevented a shutdown of the Federal government which will start at midnight tonight US time. It is getting to the point that this absurd dislocation of the world's largest economy barely even makes the headlines anymore.

    Even McCarthy says that there are around 20 GOP Congressmen and women who "just want to burn it all down". Attempts to assuage this band by cuts that Biden has said he will veto have still not resulted in them voting for it. The US Congress is currently making our remainer Parliament 2017-19 look healthily democratic. Surely there will be a price to pay for this.

    Meanwhile Trump wants to shoot shoplifters.

    https://twitter.com/NewsAlertsG/status/1707907454191669264?t=YuJwu5uL4z9n4Se3HQFKfg&s=19
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,106
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    McCarthy failed to deliver a budget plan that would have prevented a shutdown of the Federal government which will start at midnight tonight US time. It is getting to the point that this absurd dislocation of the world's largest economy barely even makes the headlines anymore.

    Even McCarthy says that there are around 20 GOP Congressmen and women who "just want to burn it all down". Attempts to assuage this band by cuts that Biden has said he will veto have still not resulted in them voting for it. The US Congress is currently making our remainer Parliament 2017-19 look healthily democratic. Surely there will be a price to pay for this.

    Meanwhile Trump wants to shoot shoplifters.

    https://twitter.com/NewsAlertsG/status/1707907454191669264?t=YuJwu5uL4z9n4Se3HQFKfg&s=19
    Is that why he bought his Glock (whilst on bail)? In this country he would have been remanded by now. The rule of law is under severe pressure in the US.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,106
    Pulpstar said:

    Level green here.

    Is this to do with the Ryder cup?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,260
    "i'm not going to comment on speculation" - Mark Harper on HS2.

    This is the line now until they get through conference.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    Scott_xP said:

    @kitty_donaldson

    EXC: While many in the Conservative Party had assumed Liz Truss simply wants to remain influential following her chaotic stint as prime minister, her ambitions are rather higher - she’s thinking of running again to lead…

    If you want a picture of the future of the Conservative Party, imagine an all-in wrestling match between Suella Braverman and Liz Truss - for ever.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,260
    edited September 2023
    Harper tries to divert BBC radio 4 interviewer away from Hs2 and on to his parking app.

    Fails.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,007
    Morning!


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,260
    Harper having a bit of car crash interview.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,260
    "i'm asking a question about High speed rail and you reply with an answer about buses."
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,608
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    McCarthy failed to deliver a budget plan that would have prevented a shutdown of the Federal government which will start at midnight tonight US time. It is getting to the point that this absurd dislocation of the world's largest economy barely even makes the headlines anymore.

    Even McCarthy says that there are around 20 GOP Congressmen and women who "just want to burn it all down". Attempts to assuage this band by cuts that Biden has said he will veto have still not resulted in them voting for it. The US Congress is currently making our remainer Parliament 2017-19 look healthily democratic. Surely there will be a price to pay for this.

    Meanwhile Trump wants to shoot shoplifters.

    https://twitter.com/NewsAlertsG/status/1707907454191669264?t=YuJwu5uL4z9n4Se3HQFKfg&s=19
    Is that why he bought his Glock (whilst on bail)? In this country he would have been remanded by now. The rule of law is under severe pressure in the US.
    His people clarified later that he hadn’t actually bought the gun.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,007
    Quite frankly, it’s the only way to travel



  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,608
    DavidL said:

    McCarthy failed to deliver a budget plan that would have prevented a shutdown of the Federal government which will start at midnight tonight US time. It is getting to the point that this absurd dislocation of the world's largest economy barely even makes the headlines anymore.

    Even McCarthy says that there are around 20 GOP Congressmen and women who "just want to burn it all down". Attempts to assuage this band by cuts that Biden has said he will veto have still not resulted in them voting for it. The US Congress is currently making our remainer Parliament 2017-19 look healthily democratic. Surely there will be a price to pay for this.

    The problem is that right-wing TV in the US lies, all the time, on an industrial scale.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,468
    ...
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kitty_donaldson

    EXC: While many in the Conservative Party had assumed Liz Truss simply wants to remain influential following her chaotic stint as prime minister, her ambitions are rather higher - she’s thinking of running again to lead…

    If you want a picture of the future of the Conservative Party, imagine an all-in wrestling match between Suella Braverman and Liz Truss - for ever.
    That has put me off Leon's breakfast.
    Leon said:

    Morning!


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,102
    I was curious if I could practice my Russian with ChatGPT-audio. Yup. Speakers move between languages effortlessly.
    https://twitter.com/dmvaldman/status/1707881743892746381
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,513
    This week Suella Braverman, the home secretary, gave an incendiary speech in which she floated the idea of leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and said that multiculturalism had failed.

    It culminated in Sunak, Britain’s first prime minister of Indian heritage, publicly contradicting her in a less than subtle rebuke. Cabinet ministers are now heavily briefing against her and suggesting she faces the sack in the forthcoming reshuffle.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-prime-minister-key-objectives-milestones-premiership-dd8h2mzjd
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,479
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kitty_donaldson

    EXC: While many in the Conservative Party had assumed Liz Truss simply wants to remain influential following her chaotic stint as prime minister, her ambitions are rather higher - she’s thinking of running again to lead…

    If you want a picture of the future of the Conservative Party, imagine an all-in wrestling match between Suella Braverman and Liz Truss - for ever.
    Is that why Truss wears that necklace?

    Good morning one and all!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. xP, not a Braverman fan, but if she is sacked that may prove somewhat Pyrrhic for her opponents. I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be dismayed) if she's a 'serious' [ahem] contender for the leadership after Sunak goes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,102
    White House warns of ‘unprecedented’ Serbian troop buildup on Kosovo border
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,468
    Scott_xP said:

    This week Suella Braverman, the home secretary, gave an incendiary speech in which she floated the idea of leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and said that multiculturalism had failed.

    It culminated in Sunak, Britain’s first prime minister of Indian heritage, publicly contradicting her in a less than subtle rebuke. Cabinet ministers are now heavily briefing against her and suggesting she faces the sack in the forthcoming reshuffle.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-prime-minister-key-objectives-milestones-premiership-dd8h2mzjd

    And the following day Graham Brady announces he has over a hundred letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,513
    Mexicanpete said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This week Suella Braverman, the home secretary, gave an incendiary speech in which she floated the idea of leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and said that multiculturalism had failed.

    It culminated in Sunak, Britain’s first prime minister of Indian heritage, publicly contradicting her in a less than subtle rebuke. Cabinet ministers are now heavily briefing against her and suggesting she faces the sack in the forthcoming reshuffle.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-prime-minister-key-objectives-milestones-premiership-dd8h2mzjd

    And the following day Graham Brady announces he has over a hundred letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister.
    Good result then!
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,223
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kitty_donaldson

    EXC: While many in the Conservative Party had assumed Liz Truss simply wants to remain influential following her chaotic stint as prime minister, her ambitions are rather higher - she’s thinking of running again to lead…

    If you want a picture of the future of the Conservative Party, imagine an all-in wrestling match between Suella Braverman and Liz Truss - for ever.
    Call it Ultimate Surrender !
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,385
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. xP, not a Braverman fan, but if she is sacked that may prove somewhat Pyrrhic for her opponents. I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be dismayed) if she's a 'serious' [ahem] contender for the leadership after Sunak goes.

    And that's Sunak's problem.

    How do you punish someone who sees the obvious punishment as a step on their career plan?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,797
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. xP, not a Braverman fan, but if she is sacked that may prove somewhat Pyrrhic for her opponents. I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be dismayed) if she's a 'serious' [ahem] contender for the leadership after Sunak goes.

    Quite possible the candidates for leader after next election will include both Braverman and a Liz Truss comeback. I can’t see either getting into the last 2 though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,102
    edited September 2023
    bondegezou said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    McCarthy failed to deliver a budget plan that would have prevented a shutdown of the Federal government which will start at midnight tonight US time. It is getting to the point that this absurd dislocation of the world's largest economy barely even makes the headlines anymore.

    Even McCarthy says that there are around 20 GOP Congressmen and women who "just want to burn it all down". Attempts to assuage this band by cuts that Biden has said he will veto have still not resulted in them voting for it. The US Congress is currently making our remainer Parliament 2017-19 look healthily democratic. Surely there will be a price to pay for this.

    Meanwhile Trump wants to shoot shoplifters.

    https://twitter.com/NewsAlertsG/status/1707907454191669264?t=YuJwu5uL4z9n4Se3HQFKfg&s=19
    Is that why he bought his Glock (whilst on bail)? In this country he would have been remanded by now. The rule of law is under severe pressure in the US.
    His people clarified later that he hadn’t actually bought the gun.
    No, they first stated that he'd bought a gun, before realising the implications.

    The 'clarification' was quite likely an obfuscation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    rottenborough said:

    Harper tries to divert BBC radio 4 interviewer away from Hs2 and on to his parking app.

    Fails.

    It was a dreadful interview; he just came across as shifty and evasive, and didn't do the government any favours at all.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,052
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    On Sycamore Gap:

    If they find the culprit(s), what crime(s) could they be charged with?

    Treeson.
    This might be your best post ever.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,102
    Leon said:

    Morning!


    I hope you're in a different time zone ?
    Doesn't look the healthiest of breakfasts.

    Starting to rootle through K-photos.
    Here's a temple pond.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,007
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Morning!


    I hope you're in a different time zone ?
    Doesn't look the healthiest of breakfasts.

    Starting to rootle through K-photos.
    Here's a temple pond.

    Yeah it’s “one thirsty” pm here. Definitely permissible to drink
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,385
    TimS said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. xP, not a Braverman fan, but if she is sacked that may prove somewhat Pyrrhic for her opponents. I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be dismayed) if she's a 'serious' [ahem] contender for the leadership after Sunak goes.

    Quite possible the candidates for leader after next election will include both Braverman and a Liz Truss comeback. I can’t see either getting into the last 2 though.
    Will the next cadre of Conservative MPs include one third crazy people? Crazy, organised people?

    They'll fall in behind whoever emerges as the winner in that lane, which could be either Truss or Braverman.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,052
    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still backing the LDs in Mid Beds, based on their famous by-election machine.

    I've greened up but have got my big play on Labour.

    The LDs aren't magicians and aren't doing anything special other parties can't do or don't know.

    Their main advantage is just that they can be all things to all men.
    It’s more than that. To win any seat for a third party, who at best would naturally come second in most places, requires a campaigning edge - they can’t get (many) people elected just by wearing the right rosette in the right part of the country. So there’s a sort of natural selection process in play where those people who get elected as LibDem councillors or LibDem MPs know how to fight elections, and normally have some sort of talent for running campaigns (or occasionally just have a very good agent who does). LibDems have to campaign to survive in a way that isnt true for the larger parties with their shedloads of safe seats, and I have met many Tory and Labour councillors over the years who wouldn’t get anywhere in the LibDems. One other consequence is that there’s a huge culture of travelling long distances to help in by-election campaigns and hence for a single contest the party can pull in huge numbers of people from a very wide area.
    So, basically, you're very dedicated and put the hard nine yards in?

    I get it, but that can be outgunned when the two parties decide to play and put their (greater) resources in; they also don't have to work quite as hard as they have a clear national message to leverage.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,102
    Nigelb said:

    Milley takes swipe at ‘wannabe dictator’ Trump in retirement speech

    Missed a link there.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/29/mark-milley-retiring-trump-dictator
    ..Speaking at Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall in Arlington, Virginia, Milley said of the US armed forces: “We don’t take an oath to a country. We don’t take an oath to a tribe. We don’t take an oath to a religion.

    “We don’t take an oath to a king, or queen, or tyrant or a dictator, and we don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator...

    Trump has threatened to execute him.

  • TazTaz Posts: 20,223
    Nigelb said:

    White House warns of ‘unprecedented’ Serbian troop buildup on Kosovo border
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    It’s been going on for a while and a full escalation has been expected more than once.

    NATO also involved now.

    https://x.com/jehonahulaj/status/1708019692399419543?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    I guess it should not be a surprise that HS2 and being able to walk to the shops from home are now both woke. The right in the UK is going through a deeply unserious period, to put it mildly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,102
    Casino_Royale said:

    IanB2 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still backing the LDs in Mid Beds, based on their famous by-election machine.

    I've greened up but have got my big play on Labour.

    The LDs aren't magicians and aren't doing anything special other parties can't do or don't know.

    Their main advantage is just that they can be all things to all men.
    It’s more than that. To win any seat for a third party, who at best would naturally come second in most places, requires a campaigning edge - they can’t get (many) people elected just by wearing the right rosette in the right part of the country. So there’s a sort of natural selection process in play where those people who get elected as LibDem councillors or LibDem MPs know how to fight elections, and normally have some sort of talent for running campaigns (or occasionally just have a very good agent who does). LibDems have to campaign to survive in a way that isnt true for the larger parties with their shedloads of safe seats, and I have met many Tory and Labour councillors over the years who wouldn’t get anywhere in the LibDems. One other consequence is that there’s a huge culture of travelling long distances to help in by-election campaigns and hence for a single contest the party can pull in huge numbers of people from a very wide area.
    ..they also don't have to work quite as hard as they have a clear national message to leverage.
    Potholes ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,479
    Stuartinromford said:

    TimS said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. xP, not a Braverman fan, but if she is sacked that may prove somewhat Pyrrhic for her opponents. I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be dismayed) if she's a 'serious' [ahem] contender for the leadership after Sunak goes.

    Quite possible the candidates for leader after next election will include both Braverman and a Liz Truss comeback. I can’t see either getting into the last 2 though.
    Will the next cadre of Conservative MPs include one third crazy people? Crazy, organised people?

    They'll fall in behind whoever emerges as the winner in that lane, which could be either Truss or Braverman.
    Given a Tory collapse, how safe is either seat?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,260
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    White House warns of ‘unprecedented’ Serbian troop buildup on Kosovo border
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    It’s been going on for a while and a full escalation has been expected more than once.

    NATO also involved now.

    https://x.com/jehonahulaj/status/1708019692399419543?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
    What's the betting Putin's agents are on the ground stirring trouble?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,557
    Is @IanB2 still in Slovakia?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66969843.amp
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,789
    rottenborough said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    White House warns of ‘unprecedented’ Serbian troop buildup on Kosovo border
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    It’s been going on for a while and a full escalation has been expected more than once.

    NATO also involved now.

    https://x.com/jehonahulaj/status/1708019692399419543?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
    What's the betting Putin's agents are on the ground stirring trouble?
    The state of some of those replies
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,223
    Labour rolls back on its commitment to restore social housing.

    It’s now a long term aspiration. A meaningless platitude.

    https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/labour-brands-social-housing-commitment-long-term-aspiration-after-it-does-not-appear-in-key-policy-document-83320
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,513
    SouthamObserver said:

    I guess it should not be a surprise that HS2 and being able to walk to the shops from home are now both woke. The right in the UK is going through a deeply unserious period, to put it mildly.

    And the "defense of the motorist" being led by a guy who famously doesn't drive (prefers helicopters) and had to borrow a car for a photoshoot
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,102
    StillWaters said:

    Is @IanB2 still in Slovakia?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66969843.amp

    Slovakia election: polls open in knife-edge vote with Ukraine high on agenda
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/30/slovakia-election-polls-open-in-knife-edge-vote-with-ukraine-high-on-agenda
    ...After a virulent campaign that has included physical brawls and amid a wave of online disinformation, the populist, nationalist three-time prime minister Robert Fico and his Smer-SD party were neck and neck with the newcomers Progressive Slovakia heading into the vote, with PS just ahead in two of the final four opinion polls.

    However, neither party will come close to a majority in the 150-seat parliament and whichever one finishes first is unlikely to find it easy to form a ruling coalition: the results of half a dozen smaller parties will be critical to the outcome...

    ..A vocal admirer of Hungary’s autocratic leader, Viktor Orbán, and to a lesser extent Poland’s national-conservative Law and Justice party, Fico told a rally this week: “War always comes from the west. And freedom and peace always come from the east.”..
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,031
    Mark Harper being taken to pieces on BBC breakfast over 20 mph stuff and war on motorist and HS2. To be honest I feel sorry for him. Not really fair to have to come on and do this but it is his job. If it were me I think I would be having a jolly good shout at Rishi for dropping me in this and then I would resign.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,564
    TimS said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. xP, not a Braverman fan, but if she is sacked that may prove somewhat Pyrrhic for her opponents. I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be dismayed) if she's a 'serious' [ahem] contender for the leadership after Sunak goes.

    Quite possible the candidates for leader after next election will include both Braverman and a Liz Truss comeback. I can’t see either getting into the last 2 though.
    Best odds that I can see on Truss are 80/1 on PP for next Tory leader.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,954
    Fleetwood Mac
    7 Up
    --
    The bearded brethren
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    edited September 2023
    StillWaters said:

    Is @IanB2 still in Slovakia?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66969843.amp

    ;)

    It was Slovenia, not Slovakia and, no, I am now home looking out at the sunny seaside
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,007
    We may have to revise our scornful opinions of Mark Zuckerberg and his Metaverse

    This is impressive, verging on incredible. You need to watch a fair bit to grasp the societal implications

    https://youtu.be/MVYrJJNdrEg?si=FuYz7yawXakPz-_6
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,564
    Stuartinromford said:

    TimS said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. xP, not a Braverman fan, but if she is sacked that may prove somewhat Pyrrhic for her opponents. I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be dismayed) if she's a 'serious' [ahem] contender for the leadership after Sunak goes.

    Quite possible the candidates for leader after next election will include both Braverman and a Liz Truss comeback. I can’t see either getting into the last 2 though.
    Will the next cadre of Conservative MPs include one third crazy people? Crazy, organised people?

    They'll fall in behind whoever emerges as the winner in that lane, which could be either Truss or Braverman.
    It's not just the MPs. When it goes to the membership, batshit crazy wins every time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,007
    Leon said:

    We may have to revise our scornful opinions of Mark Zuckerberg and his Metaverse

    This is impressive, verging on incredible. You need to watch a fair bit to grasp the societal implications

    https://youtu.be/MVYrJJNdrEg?si=FuYz7yawXakPz-_6

    It’s fucking mind blowing, actually
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,223
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. xP, not a Braverman fan, but if she is sacked that may prove somewhat Pyrrhic for her opponents. I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be dismayed) if she's a 'serious' [ahem] contender for the leadership after Sunak goes.

    Quite possible the candidates for leader after next election will include both Braverman and a Liz Truss comeback. I can’t see either getting into the last 2 though.
    Best odds that I can see on Truss are 80/1 on PP for next Tory leader.
    I got a few quid at 100/1 with William Hill a few months back 👍
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,797
    Stuartinromford said:

    TimS said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. xP, not a Braverman fan, but if she is sacked that may prove somewhat Pyrrhic for her opponents. I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be dismayed) if she's a 'serious' [ahem] contender for the leadership after Sunak goes.

    Quite possible the candidates for leader after next election will include both Braverman and a Liz Truss comeback. I can’t see either getting into the last 2 though.
    Will the next cadre of Conservative MPs include one third crazy people? Crazy, organised people?

    They'll fall in behind whoever emerges as the winner in that lane, which could be either Truss or Braverman.
    I think those are two distinct lanes. Batshit IEA think tank libertarianism, and batshit culture warrior.

    The Tories will go right if they lose the next election, but which version of right?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,007
    We are living in a time - a moment, even - of unprecedented technological advances. The world is transforming, sometimes on a daily basis

    Exhilarating but scary
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,331
    Nigelb said:

    bondegezou said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    McCarthy failed to deliver a budget plan that would have prevented a shutdown of the Federal government which will start at midnight tonight US time. It is getting to the point that this absurd dislocation of the world's largest economy barely even makes the headlines anymore.

    Even McCarthy says that there are around 20 GOP Congressmen and women who "just want to burn it all down". Attempts to assuage this band by cuts that Biden has said he will veto have still not resulted in them voting for it. The US Congress is currently making our remainer Parliament 2017-19 look healthily democratic. Surely there will be a price to pay for this.

    Meanwhile Trump wants to shoot shoplifters.

    https://twitter.com/NewsAlertsG/status/1707907454191669264?t=YuJwu5uL4z9n4Se3HQFKfg&s=19
    Is that why he bought his Glock (whilst on bail)? In this country he would have been remanded by now. The rule of law is under severe pressure in the US.
    His people clarified later that he hadn’t actually bought the gun.
    No, they first stated that he'd bought a gun, before realising the implications.

    The 'clarification' was quite likely an obfuscation.
    There’s actually quite a lot of prosecution of “straw” and “proxy” gun sales in the US
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,223
    rottenborough said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    White House warns of ‘unprecedented’ Serbian troop buildup on Kosovo border
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    It’s been going on for a while and a full escalation has been expected more than once.

    NATO also involved now.

    https://x.com/jehonahulaj/status/1708019692399419543?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
    What's the betting Putin's agents are on the ground stirring trouble?
    Probably and Serbia is very close to Russia anyway, certainly in European terms and the Serb President has a history of alignment with far right and Serb nationalist parties.

    It doesn’t really need much agitation to kick this off.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,513
    @LouHaigh

    The 20mph announcement is yet another ban on something that doesn't exist.

    @Mark_J_Harper
    cannot offer a single eg of a 20mph zone that will change under this announcement.

    #7bins
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,265
    Rep. Jasmine Crockett ABSOLUTELY DESTROYS the Biden Impeachment Inquiry & Donald Trump!

    This is an absolute must-watch & share.
    https://twitter.com/ElevenFilms/status/1707470705204555950
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,262
    Taz said:

    Labour rolls back on its commitment to restore social housing.

    It’s now a long term aspiration. A meaningless platitude.

    https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/labour-brands-social-housing-commitment-long-term-aspiration-after-it-does-not-appear-in-key-policy-document-83320

    Meanwhile the yimbys have defeated the nimbys in the Lib Dems.
    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/63229/liberal-democrats-housing-nimbyism-ed-davey
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,223
    TimS said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    TimS said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. xP, not a Braverman fan, but if she is sacked that may prove somewhat Pyrrhic for her opponents. I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be dismayed) if she's a 'serious' [ahem] contender for the leadership after Sunak goes.

    Quite possible the candidates for leader after next election will include both Braverman and a Liz Truss comeback. I can’t see either getting into the last 2 though.
    Will the next cadre of Conservative MPs include one third crazy people? Crazy, organised people?

    They'll fall in behind whoever emerges as the winner in that lane, which could be either Truss or Braverman.
    I think those are two distinct lanes. Batshit IEA think tank libertarianism, and batshit culture warrior.

    The Tories will go right if they lose the next election, but which version of right?
    You missed off TuFtOn StReEt.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,564
    TimS said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    TimS said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. xP, not a Braverman fan, but if she is sacked that may prove somewhat Pyrrhic for her opponents. I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be dismayed) if she's a 'serious' [ahem] contender for the leadership after Sunak goes.

    Quite possible the candidates for leader after next election will include both Braverman and a Liz Truss comeback. I can’t see either getting into the last 2 though.
    Will the next cadre of Conservative MPs include one third crazy people? Crazy, organised people?

    They'll fall in behind whoever emerges as the winner in that lane, which could be either Truss or Braverman.
    I think those are two distinct lanes. Batshit IEA think tank libertarianism, and batshit culture warrior.

    The Tories will go right if they lose the next election, but which version of right?
    Why not both? Batshit libertarian culture warrior?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,479
    Taz said:

    rottenborough said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    White House warns of ‘unprecedented’ Serbian troop buildup on Kosovo border
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    It’s been going on for a while and a full escalation has been expected more than once.

    NATO also involved now.

    https://x.com/jehonahulaj/status/1708019692399419543?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
    What's the betting Putin's agents are on the ground stirring trouble?
    Probably and Serbia is very close to Russia anyway, certainly in European terms and the Serb President has a history of alignment with far right and Serb nationalist parties.

    It doesn’t really need much agitation to kick this off.
    Always has been; part of the run up to WWI.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,817
    The metaverse is an idea designed to make NFT-nonsense the norm of the internet, and to gatekeep basic transactions and interactions. It doesn't enable anything that isn't already or cannot be implemented in the normal internet.

    Spending cash (crypto, anyway) on things that are not merely digital but only have any 'use' in the metaverse and can be infinitely produced after an initial cost is not healthy for consumers. Doing so in metaverses in which a stand-up comic can only be applauded by his friends if they pay the fee to cheer is not wise.

    What Meta and others want is a slice of every transaction and interaction that occurs. The barriers, in the form of VR (not essential but the way it is meant to be experienced), crypto as the main payment system, and NFTs (thankfully far less popular than the lunacy of 2 years ago), may be enough to ensure this nonsense doesn't get going despite the raging hard-on big business has for the concept of charging consumers a fortune for pixels.

    And I'm not against digital products in themselves. DnD battle maps, using AI for character portraits or to create nice wallpaper backgrounds, music, all that's fine. Because they have utility beyond swelling the coffers of Walmart, Nike, Meta, or Apple. You can use them without being subscribed to a metaverse. I strongly suspect that just as Unity's dimwit CEO tried to turn a game engine into a microtransaction machine, and lit a bonfire under their reputation as a result, the metaverse fanatics simply want to turn the whole internet into the Satanism that is games-as-a-service.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,385
    TimS said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    TimS said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. xP, not a Braverman fan, but if she is sacked that may prove somewhat Pyrrhic for her opponents. I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be dismayed) if she's a 'serious' [ahem] contender for the leadership after Sunak goes.

    Quite possible the candidates for leader after next election will include both Braverman and a Liz Truss comeback. I can’t see either getting into the last 2 though.
    Will the next cadre of Conservative MPs include one third crazy people? Crazy, organised people?

    They'll fall in behind whoever emerges as the winner in that lane, which could be either Truss or Braverman.
    I think those are two distinct lanes. Batshit IEA think tank libertarianism, and batshit culture warrior.

    The Tories will go right if they lose the next election, but which version of right?
    Whichever one is ahead after the first few rounds.

    I'm expecting roughly three carriageways, and the first few rounds will see the lanes within them merge, until there's one of each. Very roughly "start to move back towards the electorate but not too much" (Mordaunt), "business as usual" (someone like Cleverley or Barclay or Badenoch), and "batshit right" (Truss/Braverman). Probably with percentages 25:40:35 in the final MPs round.

    Then, whatever happens, whoever gets through, the membership will go for the more right wing option.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,862
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    TimS said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. xP, not a Braverman fan, but if she is sacked that may prove somewhat Pyrrhic for her opponents. I wouldn't be surprised (although I would be dismayed) if she's a 'serious' [ahem] contender for the leadership after Sunak goes.

    Quite possible the candidates for leader after next election will include both Braverman and a Liz Truss comeback. I can’t see either getting into the last 2 though.
    Will the next cadre of Conservative MPs include one third crazy people? Crazy, organised people?

    They'll fall in behind whoever emerges as the winner in that lane, which could be either Truss or Braverman.
    I think those are two distinct lanes. Batshit IEA think tank libertarianism, and batshit culture warrior.

    The Tories will go right if they lose the next election, but which version of right?
    Why not both? Batshit libertarian culture warrior?
    Or more.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/sep/30/a-guide-to-the-key-conservative-tribes-as-party-conference-looms
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,531
    Leon said:

    We may have to revise our scornful opinions of Mark Zuckerberg and his Metaverse

    This is impressive, verging on incredible. You need to watch a fair bit to grasp the societal implications

    https://youtu.be/MVYrJJNdrEg?si=FuYz7yawXakPz-_6

    There's this thing called Microsoft Teams. It became popular during Covid, displacing Skype. Millions of people use it every day to have conversations with their colleagues in real time with entirely realistic moving images of the person. Many people change the background to cover up their messy bedroom or wherever they are.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,564
    Barnesian said:

    Taz said:

    Labour rolls back on its commitment to restore social housing.

    It’s now a long term aspiration. A meaningless platitude.

    https://www.insidehousing.co.uk/news/labour-brands-social-housing-commitment-long-term-aspiration-after-it-does-not-appear-in-key-policy-document-83320

    Meanwhile the yimbys have defeated the nimbys in the Lib Dems.
    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/63229/liberal-democrats-housing-nimbyism-ed-davey
    Well, we do need some place to put the million migrants that have arrived in the last 2 years. Starmer and Davey have a lot of explaining to do on why their government let them in

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    Leon said:

    We may have to revise our scornful opinions of Mark Zuckerberg and his Metaverse

    This is impressive, verging on incredible. You need to watch a fair bit to grasp the societal implications

    https://youtu.be/MVYrJJNdrEg?si=FuYz7yawXakPz-_6

    A phone call where you can see the other person talking? Amazing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,862
    edited September 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    I guess it should not be a surprise that HS2 and being able to walk to the shops from home are now both woke. The right in the UK is going through a deeply unserious period, to put it mildly.

    And the "defense of the motorist" being led by a guy who famously doesn't drive (prefers helicopters) and had to borrow a car for a photoshoot
    'Motorist' too being a giveaway choice of word, so obsolete it might as well be a specialised sexual perversion catered for in a fin de siecle brothel in Austro-Hungarian Wien. Aims clearly at those above 65.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,513

    @alexwickham

    NEW:

    * Next Tory Leader Runners and Riders *

    — some MPs think Sunak is a lame duck and their main topic of conversation now is who comes next after the election

    — at least 13 names in the running as we head up to conference

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1708027871715815561?s=20
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    Leon said:

    We are living in a time - a moment, even - of unprecedented technological advances. The world is transforming, sometimes on a daily basis

    Exhilarating but scary

    It's truly the changing of an era; we just can't see it yet
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,531
    Nigelb said:

    White House warns of ‘unprecedented’ Serbian troop buildup on Kosovo border
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Serbia is in the CSTO. I've pointed this out before:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization#Membership
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,862
    Leon said:

    Quite frankly, it’s the only way to travel



    Trans What Airways?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,515
    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    White House warns of ‘unprecedented’ Serbian troop buildup on Kosovo border
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Serbia is in the CSTO. I've pointed this out before:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization#Membership
    CSTO membership has worked really well for Armenia this month, hasn't it ...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,862
    Malmesbury said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Malmesbury said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Benpointer said:

    O/T This is a bit stark.

    image

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/66957427

    The y-axis should start at 0
    0 celsius is pretty arbitrary, so I assume you mean Kelvin.
    0 Kelvin is just some arbitrary value, based on the way the structure of the universe happened to coalesce after the Big Bang.
    The Big Bang is a pretty arbitrary point in time to measure from.
    No planing documentation on the Big Bang available. No safety case.

    Obviously a cowboy operation.

    Basing public policy on that?
    See the relevant volume in the History of Discworld (T. Pratchett, various dates and volumes).
  • TresTres Posts: 2,992
    Sunak's battle for the heart of the motorist doesn't include making sure the Dartford Crossing and Blackwall Tunnel aren't closed on the same weekend.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,862
    Tres said:

    Sunak's battle for the heart of the motorist doesn't include making sure the Dartford Crossing and Blackwall Tunnel aren't closed on the same weekend.

    Au contraire: he can blame Mr Khan, legitimately or otherwise.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,333
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @kitty_donaldson

    EXC: While many in the Conservative Party had assumed Liz Truss simply wants to remain influential following her chaotic stint as prime minister, her ambitions are rather higher - she’s thinking of running again to lead…

    If you want a picture of the future of the Conservative Party, imagine an all-in wrestling match between Suella Braverman and Liz Truss - for ever.
    Would they both be naked?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,331
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Quite frankly, it’s the only way to travel



    Trans What Airways?
    Trans Woke Illegal Immigrant Alien AIs Airline.

    They’ve come for the flint knappers….
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,007
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    We may have to revise our scornful opinions of Mark Zuckerberg and his Metaverse

    This is impressive, verging on incredible. You need to watch a fair bit to grasp the societal implications

    https://youtu.be/MVYrJJNdrEg?si=FuYz7yawXakPz-_6

    There's this thing called Microsoft Teams. It became popular during Covid, displacing Skype. Millions of people use it every day to have conversations with their colleagues in real time with entirely realistic moving images of the person. Many people change the background to cover up their messy bedroom or wherever they are.
    FFS watch the video. None of you has grasped what is happening in it, and why it is revolutionary. It is not another version of “Teams” or a “video call”
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,260
    Scott_xP said:


    @alexwickham

    NEW:

    * Next Tory Leader Runners and Riders *

    — some MPs think Sunak is a lame duck and their main topic of conversation now is who comes next after the election

    — at least 13 names in the running as we head up to conference

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1708027871715815561?s=20

    My biggest bet so far on this market is on Steve Barclay.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,333
    DavidL said:

    McCarthy failed to deliver a budget plan that would have prevented a shutdown of the Federal government which will start at midnight tonight US time. It is getting to the point that this absurd dislocation of the world's largest economy barely even makes the headlines anymore.

    Even McCarthy says that there are around 20 GOP Congressmen and women who "just want to burn it all down". Attempts to assuage this band by cuts that Biden has said he will veto have still not resulted in them voting for it. The US Congress is currently making our remainer Parliament 2017-19 look healthily democratic. Surely there will be a price to pay for this.

    The bad politicians drive out the good. The worse politics gets, the less that able people wish to enter it.
This discussion has been closed.

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