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The Mid-Beds betting remains very tight – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    One other thought about the whole Fifteen Minute thing.

    It's not that long ago (i.e. last month) that the government announced plans for a law to require one aspect of the Fifteen Minute Neighbourhood thing- access to your money- by saying that everyone in urban areas had to be within one mile of a cashpoint.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2023-08-18/banks-could-be-fined-if-they-fail-to-provide-access-to-cash

    Our amenities for the likes of us must be convenient.
    Woke amenities for others must be prevented.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    edited September 2023

    One other thought about the whole Fifteen Minute thing.

    It's not that long ago (i.e. last month) that the government announced plans for a law to require one aspect of the Fifteen Minute Neighbourhood thing- access to your money- by saying that everyone in urban areas had to be within one mile of a cashpoint.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2023-08-18/banks-could-be-fined-if-they-fail-to-provide-access-to-cash

    CASH IS WOKE

    That's full circle I think? GG everybody, was fun while it lasted. Let's do a 10 year reunion in Llandudno (will take roughly that long to get there).
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,521
    edited September 2023
    Ghedebrav said:

    boulay said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re the Sycamore tree. Has anyone identified a criminal offence which may have been committed yet? Did it have a TPO?

    I'm not querying the awfulness of the destruction. Just wondering what someone could be charged with?

    Also I hope the wood from the felled tree is used to create something beautiful - perhaps a carving in miniature of the tree itself, made out of its own wood.

    (Edited: I see @JosiasJessop has asked the same question. That'll teach me to comment before reading the thread.)

    Maybe if the tree falling damaged a bit of Hadrian’s Wall, even minor damage, the culprit could be done for damaging a listed monument if they can’t get them for cutting the tree down itself.
    World Heritage Site, no less.

    I’m still baffled by this crime. The deliberateness of it. A lot of vandalism is malign opportunism; this has a significant degree of forethought and planning - but *why*?

    If it was a statue of someone, or a religious building or something like that I’d at least understand the motive. The Crooked House thing (to which this is a strange and sad counterpoint), rotten but an insurance job or whatever - there’s a motive.

    I just don’t get it.
    Felling any tree outside your own property without a licence is illegal and punishable by an unlimited fine and/or prison sentence. Smaller trees are exempt but this tree being part of a World Heritage site means it was automatically covered as part of a conservation area.

    Edit. Apologies this reply was meant more for boulay
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Eabhal said:

    a

    One other thought about the whole Fifteen Minute thing.

    It's not that long ago (i.e. last month) that the government announced plans for a law to require one aspect of the Fifteen Minute Neighbourhood thing- access to your money- by saying that everyone in urban areas had to be within one mile of a cashpoint.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2023-08-18/banks-could-be-fined-if-they-fail-to-provide-access-to-cash

    CASH IS WOKE
    You have to admit it's a brilliant solution to the NHS GPs and dental practices queues for appointments.
  • dixiedean said:

    One other thought about the whole Fifteen Minute thing.

    It's not that long ago (i.e. last month) that the government announced plans for a law to require one aspect of the Fifteen Minute Neighbourhood thing- access to your money- by saying that everyone in urban areas had to be within one mile of a cashpoint.

    https://www.itv.com/news/2023-08-18/banks-could-be-fined-if-they-fail-to-provide-access-to-cash

    Our amenities for the likes of us must be convenient.
    Woke amenities for others must be prevented.
    What's wrong with cash, FFS?
  • nova said:

    Thought experiment.

    You're one of Rishi's advisors, prepping him for a big conference interview.

    The question "why are you stopping councils planning Fifteen Minute Neighbourhoods? What's so awful about them?" comes up.

    What do you advise your boss to say?

    I haven't got a bloody clue.

    He'll bring up congestion charges.

    There will be something about hard working Brits being fined, when all they want to do is drive to work, take their kids to football practice, or take their Grandma to hospital.
    Don't mention the hospitals! You mentioned it once, but I think you got away with it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited September 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Tres said:

    For Leon

    Am I the only one who has never heard of this tree, and really isn't bothered?
    A reasonable question, but if someone came and bulldozed, say, New Walk in Leicester, how would you feel? I was really taken with the Walk, and I'm sure the locals would be very upset.

    Also the tree symbolises happy outings for so very many folk - such as a holiday Mrs C and I spent staying very near it and roaming the wall.
    But little concern is expressed here over other trees, including those planned for the chop for HS2, also centuries old.

    I suppose it is symbolic of how much of a decline we are in in some obscure way.
    Point taken.

    We were, to be fair, discussing ancient woodlands the other day, and how ancient woodlands can't be restored by planting however many saplings [edit] in new made ground.
    Not entirely, but rapid reforestation on a very large scale is quite possible.
    As S Korea demonstrated after the war.

    (Mind you, they did have a dictator to kick it off.)
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    nova said:

    darkage said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    This is a fair summary.
    The problem is that the 'this is the thin end of the wedge' criticism is both a) a conspiracy theory AND b) not entirely without merit.
    If you set off the principle of having cameras recording all traffic movements and only permitting X amount per year, then it isn't too difficult to start changing the rules once the system is in place, using whatever justification you want to come up with.
    This is quite a fundamental problem and it is unwise to dismiss it as 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.
    Oh, but it is 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.

    The jump from trying to cut down on congestion in a city like Oxford, to saying you won't be able to leave your neighbourhood to travel to other cities, or even other parts of Oxford, is frankly ridiculous.

    What on earth would be the end game? Congestion and pollution in city centres is an obvious issue that we've been aware of for many years. Beyond the pandemic, I can't even think of a reason why the state would want to stop people moving from one city to another, and there's no indication that society is heading that way.
    In the end... you believe one thing, others believe something different, and the others are now supported by the government. In the end this just seems like democracy at work.

  • CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Just give the Serb majority areas back to Serbia. It's not rocket science.
  • CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Did I read that we are sending troops to Kosovo as part of NATO? That could get interesting very quickly.
  • Foxy said:

    Tres said:

    For Leon

    Am I the only one who has never heard of this tree, and really isn't bothered?
    Are you Catherine Tate in disguise?
  • CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Did I read that we are sending troops to Kosovo as part of NATO? That could get interesting very quickly.
    A unit of UK troops on a training mission in the area have been assigned over to NATO command to help the situation. Prince of Wales Royal Regiment says Reuters.
  • Astonished the Serbia situation is not getting more news coverage.

    Far away country of which we know little etc etc...

  • Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Tres said:

    For Leon

    Am I the only one who has never heard of this tree, and really isn't bothered?
    A reasonable question, but if someone came and bulldozed, say, New Walk in Leicester, how would you feel? I was really taken with the Walk, and I'm sure the locals would be very upset.

    Also the tree symbolises happy outings for so very many folk - such as a holiday Mrs C and I spent staying very near it and roaming the wall.
    But little concern is expressed here over other trees, including those planned for the chop for HS2, also centuries old.

    I suppose it is symbolic of how much of a decline we are in in some obscure way.

    Last time I went back to Leamington, I was shocked at how so many of my old cycling routes out into the countryside have been totally laid waste by the HS2 building work - ancient landscapes, including any number of very old woods and trees, just wiped out. But you kind of accept it because it's for a purpose. Now, if HS2 ends up not being built or becomes a total white elephant, what has been done becomes unforgivable.

    To my mind we are already at that point. But I know many others disagree with me.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    edited September 2023
    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    If the Tories are actually jumping the shark I think, perversely, that might be good for them

    Imagine Sunak waterskiing the Queensland coast, live, on tv, trying to jump a great white shark just after Bake Off..

    That all sounds a bit Matt Hancock.

    What could Starmer do to beat that ?
    Ignore it ?
    He just needs to be driving the boat. Under Welsh speed rules.
    20 mph is only 17 knots. Titanic managed 21 knots. The ordinary fast passenger "Uber Boats" on the Thames can reach 30 knots.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kjh said:



    Labour got nearly twice as many votes as the LDs in the 2019 GE (14,028/8,171). And in 2017 GE nearly five times as many votes (17,593/3,798).
    It seems entirely rational for Labour to put everything into winning this particular one, as Nick argues.

    Hi @Northern_Al. Agree with the numbers and if Labour want to they should, just as the LDs should if they want to. What's good for the goose as they say.

    But the logic of my argument - Any issue with it as to who would be most likely to win in a two way fight with the Tories? That is all I am saying when Nick points out that it is the LDs who are the spoilers.
    You're posting about a hypothetical world where Labour and LibDems effectively stand down for each other - as you know, neither party is up for that. However, there is a degree of unofficial understanding that if one of them are clearly the closer challenger, the other one won't try *too* hard. It's that understanding, which benefits the LibDems in places like Guildford, that they are breaking by trying hard in a seat where they are clearly third, and aggressively attacking the Labour candidate.

    We all have hardcore types who will go all-out in any election even if they started on 1%, but sensible parties encourage a bit of restraint and focus on winnable seats. By making it harder for second-place Labour to win in mid-Beds, it makes it more difficult for us sensible types to keep the "fight everything everywhere" school of thought in check.

    I do recognise that in a month where there are three by-elections, it's understandable that the LibDems want to make a serious effort somewhere rather than just sitting them all out. But a degree of restraint in the face of the polls showing Labour within an inch of beating the Tories would be appreciated.
    That's wrong too. If the Lib Dems have a fair chance of winning (and the polling suggests that they do) they should go for it.
    Particularly as Labour promised to change the voting system that forces voters into these unwholesome considerations in the first place, and then broke that promise, out of what at the time they saw as their naked self-interest (in the alternative promise-kept universe, the Tories never got a majority again).
    But, that's very naïve too.

    The Lib Dems and Labour teaming up for PR or a change in the voting system wouldn't guarantee centre-left government forever, anymore than it does in Europe.

    In fact, it would be more likely to bring radical fringe parties to power.
    That might happen but the current system is grossly unfair , forcing many to be forced into either tactical voting or not voting at all.
    Be careful what you wish for.
    I understand where you’re coming from but at the end of the day our politics would be more representative and also more interesting .
    I think fundamentally the route to better quality politics in this country is the selection of candidates on the basis of exceptional talent, and nothing else. We have lots of lickspittles, toadies and non-entities atm.

    I am essentially agnostic these days about voting systems, although I detest STV, but don't think it really delivers better politics one way or another.
    Yet it is the safe seats created by our current system, with many MPs effectively chosen by tiny numbers of activists with their own fringe political obsessions who sit on selection committees, that is responsible for that lack of talent.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Just got a speeding notice through the post for exceeding the limit in a 20mph zone.

    I’m voting Rishi now.

    Sympathies, Tim. May I enquire just how fast you were going?

    My understanding is that you are allowed 10% plus 2 over the limiti, so the 20 is effectively 24.

    Just curious, nothing else.
    26mph
    The so called "enforcement threshold" is entirely at the discretion of local Police Forces.

    So don't assume unless you know.

    (IIRC North Wales was one where they were tighter, Not sure now.)

    But you can drive dangerously in Kent, and they won't enforce unless you injure someone.

    And you can pass a cyclist at 1mm in North Lincs, because they never enforce any close passes.

    You are probably OK to ignore 20mph limits in Norfolk because they issue about 3 tickets a year in 20mph zones.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    nova said:

    darkage said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    This is a fair summary.
    The problem is that the 'this is the thin end of the wedge' criticism is both a) a conspiracy theory AND b) not entirely without merit.
    If you set off the principle of having cameras recording all traffic movements and only permitting X amount per year, then it isn't too difficult to start changing the rules once the system is in place, using whatever justification you want to come up with.
    This is quite a fundamental problem and it is unwise to dismiss it as 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.
    Oh, but it is 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.

    The jump from trying to cut down on congestion in a city like Oxford, to saying you won't be able to leave your neighbourhood to travel to other cities, or even other parts of Oxford, is frankly ridiculous.

    What on earth would be the end game? Congestion and pollution in city centres is an obvious issue that we've been aware of for many years. Beyond the pandemic, I can't even think of a reason why the state would want to stop people moving from one city to another, and there's no indication that society is heading that way.
    In the end... you believe one thing, others believe something different, and the others are now supported by the government. In the end this just seems like democracy at work.

    But how many people have even heard of this conspiracy theory, let alone believe it? I follow politics, am vaguely centre-right-ish, and am interested in planning, infrastructure, and urbanism. I hadn't come across any of this until today - and I'm still having trouble getting my head around it.

    It seems like this goes way beyond Sunak targetting his base - he's talking to a very narrow segment of it.

    My worry isn't so much about him trying to ban me from walking to the shops, it's more about whether he's going to lean more heavily on conspiracy theories in the future. If he goes full QAnon in a desperate attempt to save his skin, he could risk poisoning our politics for a generation.
    Plenty believe it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15-minute_city#Conspiracy_theories may help get you up to speed.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    I think you are describing an LTN, not a 15-minute neighbourhood.

    For example, modern housing developments are always LTNs, but very much NOT 15-minute neighbourhoods because the developers never invest in local GPs, dentists, pubs, schools, corner shops...
    IMO that's not true.

    Just looking at one of our smallish local developments which has got PP recently:

    "... more than £850,000 in developer contributions – including £481,114 for primary school places – will be provided to shore up local services"
    ...
    “Countryside Properties will be making contributions towards primary school education, open space, healthcare, libraries and improvements to footpaths.

    https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/110-new-homes-built-sutton-5688170

    Interesting from Zadrozny, in a huff:
    Cllr Zadrozny, the leader of the council, said: “I can promise in future that developers won’t get a greased sausage through my planning committee without building a better relationship [with the council].
    Ah fair enough. Well done that council.
    These 'contributions' primarily offset the impact of population growth, IE through schools, GP places, police etc which are not funded by central government. Unless you have an up to date local plan it is a lot more difficult to get contributions that fund proactive infrastructure provision that improves quality of life. Most Council's don't have such a plan in place and large new housing development comes forward on a speculative basis, developers just pay the minimum to mitigate the impact of population growth, the figures may sound good but it is really only just about neutralising the impact on basic services.

  • Samuel Ramani
    @SamRamani2
    ·
    1h
    BREAKING: The US asks Serbia to withdraw its "unprecedented" military force buildup near Kosovo
  • nova said:

    darkage said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    This is a fair summary.
    The problem is that the 'this is the thin end of the wedge' criticism is both a) a conspiracy theory AND b) not entirely without merit.
    If you set off the principle of having cameras recording all traffic movements and only permitting X amount per year, then it isn't too difficult to start changing the rules once the system is in place, using whatever justification you want to come up with.
    This is quite a fundamental problem and it is unwise to dismiss it as 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.
    Oh, but it is 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.

    The jump from trying to cut down on congestion in a city like Oxford, to saying you won't be able to leave your neighbourhood to travel to other cities, or even other parts of Oxford, is frankly ridiculous.

    What on earth would be the end game? Congestion and pollution in city centres is an obvious issue that we've been aware of for many years. Beyond the pandemic, I can't even think of a reason why the state would want to stop people moving from one city to another, and there's no indication that society is heading that way.
    It is absolute nonsense, yes.

    There was a particular issue in Oxford where a county council cabinet member rather unwisely conflated the county council's traffic filters (which are a transport policy to reduce congestion) with the city council's 20-minute neighbourhood idea (which is a planning policy to put the right things in the right places).

    The Sunday Times ran with it and the conspiracy theorists picked it up - they basically saw it as "aha! Now the mask slips! We will be prevented from going outside our 15-minute zone!". It's hogwash but the cabinet member in question didn't really help matters.

    He's no longer a cabinet member because Labour took its ball home and withdrew from the coalition last week, so there you go.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    Will the 20mph limit around Parliament also be abolished?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    nova said:

    darkage said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    This is a fair summary.
    The problem is that the 'this is the thin end of the wedge' criticism is both a) a conspiracy theory AND b) not entirely without merit.
    If you set off the principle of having cameras recording all traffic movements and only permitting X amount per year, then it isn't too difficult to start changing the rules once the system is in place, using whatever justification you want to come up with.
    This is quite a fundamental problem and it is unwise to dismiss it as 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.
    Oh, but it is 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.

    The jump from trying to cut down on congestion in a city like Oxford, to saying you won't be able to leave your neighbourhood to travel to other cities, or even other parts of Oxford, is frankly ridiculous.

    What on earth would be the end game? Congestion and pollution in city centres is an obvious issue that we've been aware of for many years. Beyond the pandemic, I can't even think of a reason why the state would want to stop people moving from one city to another, and there's no indication that society is heading that way.
    In the end... you believe one thing, others believe something different, and the others are now supported by the government. In the end this just seems like democracy at work.

    But how many people have even heard of this conspiracy theory, let alone believe it? I follow politics, am vaguely centre-right-ish, and am interested in planning, infrastructure, and urbanism. I hadn't come across any of this until today - and I'm still having trouble getting my head around it.

    It seems like this goes way beyond Sunak targetting his base - he's talking to a very narrow segment of it.

    My worry isn't so much about him trying to ban me from walking to the shops, it's more about whether he's going to lean more heavily on conspiracy theories in the future. If he goes full QAnon in a desperate attempt to save his skin, he could risk poisoning our politics for a generation.
    The best way to think about this is Sunak diffusing the conspiracy theorist tendency, by addressing the valid point that the conspiracy theory is latching on to.
  • novanova Posts: 690
    Eabhal said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    I think you are describing an LTN, not a 15-minute neighbourhood.

    For example, modern housing developments are always LTNs, but very much NOT 15-minute neighbourhoods because the developers never invest in local GPs, dentists, pubs, schools, corner shops...

    They expect you to drive to the existing ones on the other side of town, rather undermining the whole point of their LTN development.
    What I've described is definitely part of the '15 minute City' plan in Oxford, and that's the main one that the conspiracy theorists have picked up on.

    Part of the plan for cutting down on trips to the centre, wat that the outer zones would have more services within them.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    darkage said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    nova said:

    darkage said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    This is a fair summary.
    The problem is that the 'this is the thin end of the wedge' criticism is both a) a conspiracy theory AND b) not entirely without merit.
    If you set off the principle of having cameras recording all traffic movements and only permitting X amount per year, then it isn't too difficult to start changing the rules once the system is in place, using whatever justification you want to come up with.
    This is quite a fundamental problem and it is unwise to dismiss it as 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.
    Oh, but it is 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.

    The jump from trying to cut down on congestion in a city like Oxford, to saying you won't be able to leave your neighbourhood to travel to other cities, or even other parts of Oxford, is frankly ridiculous.

    What on earth would be the end game? Congestion and pollution in city centres is an obvious issue that we've been aware of for many years. Beyond the pandemic, I can't even think of a reason why the state would want to stop people moving from one city to another, and there's no indication that society is heading that way.
    In the end... you believe one thing, others believe something different, and the others are now supported by the government. In the end this just seems like democracy at work.

    But how many people have even heard of this conspiracy theory, let alone believe it? I follow politics, am vaguely centre-right-ish, and am interested in planning, infrastructure, and urbanism. I hadn't come across any of this until today - and I'm still having trouble getting my head around it.

    It seems like this goes way beyond Sunak targetting his base - he's talking to a very narrow segment of it.

    My worry isn't so much about him trying to ban me from walking to the shops, it's more about whether he's going to lean more heavily on conspiracy theories in the future. If he goes full QAnon in a desperate attempt to save his skin, he could risk poisoning our politics for a generation.
    The best way to think about this is Sunak diffusing the conspiracy theorist tendency, by addressing the valid point that the conspiracy theory is latching on to.
    Is this "smoke without fire" ?

    What do you make of 5G and vaccines? This is the kind of person we are talking about.
  • IanB2 said:

    nico679 said:

    nico679 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    kjh said:



    Labour got nearly twice as many votes as the LDs in the 2019 GE (14,028/8,171). And in 2017 GE nearly five times as many votes (17,593/3,798).
    It seems entirely rational for Labour to put everything into winning this particular one, as Nick argues.

    Hi @Northern_Al. Agree with the numbers and if Labour want to they should, just as the LDs should if they want to. What's good for the goose as they say.

    But the logic of my argument - Any issue with it as to who would be most likely to win in a two way fight with the Tories? That is all I am saying when Nick points out that it is the LDs who are the spoilers.
    You're posting about a hypothetical world where Labour and LibDems effectively stand down for each other - as you know, neither party is up for that. However, there is a degree of unofficial understanding that if one of them are clearly the closer challenger, the other one won't try *too* hard. It's that understanding, which benefits the LibDems in places like Guildford, that they are breaking by trying hard in a seat where they are clearly third, and aggressively attacking the Labour candidate.

    We all have hardcore types who will go all-out in any election even if they started on 1%, but sensible parties encourage a bit of restraint and focus on winnable seats. By making it harder for second-place Labour to win in mid-Beds, it makes it more difficult for us sensible types to keep the "fight everything everywhere" school of thought in check.

    I do recognise that in a month where there are three by-elections, it's understandable that the LibDems want to make a serious effort somewhere rather than just sitting them all out. But a degree of restraint in the face of the polls showing Labour within an inch of beating the Tories would be appreciated.
    That's wrong too. If the Lib Dems have a fair chance of winning (and the polling suggests that they do) they should go for it.
    Particularly as Labour promised to change the voting system that forces voters into these unwholesome considerations in the first place, and then broke that promise, out of what at the time they saw as their naked self-interest (in the alternative promise-kept universe, the Tories never got a majority again).
    But, that's very naïve too.

    The Lib Dems and Labour teaming up for PR or a change in the voting system wouldn't guarantee centre-left government forever, anymore than it does in Europe.

    In fact, it would be more likely to bring radical fringe parties to power.
    That might happen but the current system is grossly unfair , forcing many to be forced into either tactical voting or not voting at all.
    Be careful what you wish for.
    I understand where you’re coming from but at the end of the day our politics would be more representative and also more interesting .
    I think fundamentally the route to better quality politics in this country is the selection of candidates on the basis of exceptional talent, and nothing else. We have lots of lickspittles, toadies and non-entities atm.

    I am essentially agnostic these days about voting systems, although I detest STV, but don't think it really delivers better politics one way or another.
    Yet it is the safe seats created by our current system, with many MPs effectively chosen by tiny numbers of activists with their own fringe political obsessions who sit on selection committees, that is responsible for that lack of talent.
    I'm a fan of STV as I think it increases the power voters have, and encourages them to vote honestly, rather than forcing them to guess how other voters will vote as FPTP does, which encourages tactical voting and very negative campaigning - only party x can stop party y in z. I hate that sort of campaigning argument.

    However, anyone who thinks it's a panacea that will improve the quality of politicians should spend a bit of time listening to the TDs elected to the Dail. The voters are perfectly able to elect a whole bunch of eejits with STV and the same would be true in Britain.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    darkage said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    nova said:

    darkage said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    This is a fair summary.
    The problem is that the 'this is the thin end of the wedge' criticism is both a) a conspiracy theory AND b) not entirely without merit.
    If you set off the principle of having cameras recording all traffic movements and only permitting X amount per year, then it isn't too difficult to start changing the rules once the system is in place, using whatever justification you want to come up with.
    This is quite a fundamental problem and it is unwise to dismiss it as 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.
    Oh, but it is 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.

    The jump from trying to cut down on congestion in a city like Oxford, to saying you won't be able to leave your neighbourhood to travel to other cities, or even other parts of Oxford, is frankly ridiculous.

    What on earth would be the end game? Congestion and pollution in city centres is an obvious issue that we've been aware of for many years. Beyond the pandemic, I can't even think of a reason why the state would want to stop people moving from one city to another, and there's no indication that society is heading that way.
    In the end... you believe one thing, others believe something different, and the others are now supported by the government. In the end this just seems like democracy at work.

    But how many people have even heard of this conspiracy theory, let alone believe it? I follow politics, am vaguely centre-right-ish, and am interested in planning, infrastructure, and urbanism. I hadn't come across any of this until today - and I'm still having trouble getting my head around it.

    It seems like this goes way beyond Sunak targetting his base - he's talking to a very narrow segment of it.

    My worry isn't so much about him trying to ban me from walking to the shops, it's more about whether he's going to lean more heavily on conspiracy theories in the future. If he goes full QAnon in a desperate attempt to save his skin, he could risk poisoning our politics for a generation.
    The best way to think about this is Sunak diffusing the conspiracy theorist tendency, by addressing the valid point that the conspiracy theory is latching on to.
    Did you mean to say "defusing", or did you really mean that he was "diffusing" conspiracy theories?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    I think you are describing an LTN, not a 15-minute neighbourhood.

    For example, modern housing developments are always LTNs, but very much NOT 15-minute neighbourhoods because the developers never invest in local GPs, dentists, pubs, schools, corner shops...
    IMO that's not true.

    Just looking at one of our smallish local developments which has got PP recently:

    "... more than £850,000 in developer contributions – including £481,114 for primary school places – will be provided to shore up local services"
    ...
    “Countryside Properties will be making contributions towards primary school education, open space, healthcare, libraries and improvements to footpaths.

    https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/110-new-homes-built-sutton-5688170

    Interesting from Zadrozny, in a huff:
    Cllr Zadrozny, the leader of the council, said: “I can promise in future that developers won’t get a greased sausage through my planning committee without building a better relationship [with the council].
    Developers are famous for promising that there will be facilities, bit not so good about actually ensuring they exist. In fact, one might go as far as saying that they indulge in the time-honoured technique of "fibbing"
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148

    ...

    Why are 20mph zones a "war on motorists" as Sunak claims?

    Ridiculous hyperbole.

    At worst they are a mild inconvenience.

    If he can row back and reverse any, he would be a hostage to fortune after the first child died as a result of his sanctioning additional speed.
    Good point.
    He's on a hiding to nothing imo - even accepting I have been bitterly contemptuous.

    How is his "stop vicious parking enforcement" going to play with someone like me who was always forced into traffic by antisocial when I was taking my mum anywhere in her wheelchair in her last years?

    Never mind parents with kids in buggies and so on.
  • AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    nova said:

    darkage said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    This is a fair summary.
    The problem is that the 'this is the thin end of the wedge' criticism is both a) a conspiracy theory AND b) not entirely without merit.
    If you set off the principle of having cameras recording all traffic movements and only permitting X amount per year, then it isn't too difficult to start changing the rules once the system is in place, using whatever justification you want to come up with.
    This is quite a fundamental problem and it is unwise to dismiss it as 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.
    Oh, but it is 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.

    The jump from trying to cut down on congestion in a city like Oxford, to saying you won't be able to leave your neighbourhood to travel to other cities, or even other parts of Oxford, is frankly ridiculous.

    What on earth would be the end game? Congestion and pollution in city centres is an obvious issue that we've been aware of for many years. Beyond the pandemic, I can't even think of a reason why the state would want to stop people moving from one city to another, and there's no indication that society is heading that way.
    In the end... you believe one thing, others believe something different, and the others are now supported by the government. In the end this just seems like democracy at work.

    But how many people have even heard of this conspiracy theory, let alone believe it? I follow politics, am vaguely centre-right-ish, and am interested in planning, infrastructure, and urbanism. I hadn't come across any of this until today - and I'm still having trouble getting my head around it.

    It seems like this goes way beyond Sunak targetting his base - he's talking to a very narrow segment of it.

    My worry isn't so much about him trying to ban me from walking to the shops, it's more about whether he's going to lean more heavily on conspiracy theories in the future. If he goes full QAnon in a desperate attempt to save his skin, he could risk poisoning our politics for a generation.
    I wonder if one of Rishi's aides has noticed the furore that has been surrounding Lawrence Fox of late, and has told his boss that that's an area from which he could mine some significant political capital. Poor advice if so.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    darkage said:

    nova said:

    darkage said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    This is a fair summary.
    The problem is that the 'this is the thin end of the wedge' criticism is both a) a conspiracy theory AND b) not entirely without merit.
    If you set off the principle of having cameras recording all traffic movements and only permitting X amount per year, then it isn't too difficult to start changing the rules once the system is in place, using whatever justification you want to come up with.
    This is quite a fundamental problem and it is unwise to dismiss it as 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.
    Oh, but it is 'conspiracy theory nonsense'.

    The jump from trying to cut down on congestion in a city like Oxford, to saying you won't be able to leave your neighbourhood to travel to other cities, or even other parts of Oxford, is frankly ridiculous.

    What on earth would be the end game? Congestion and pollution in city centres is an obvious issue that we've been aware of for many years. Beyond the pandemic, I can't even think of a reason why the state would want to stop people moving from one city to another, and there's no indication that society is heading that way.
    In the end... you believe one thing, others believe something different, and the others are now supported by the government. In the end this just seems like democracy at work.

    Democracy at work will be what happens to this bunch of hopeless, shameless liars next year.
  • ...

    Why are 20mph zones a "war on motorists" as Sunak claims?

    Ridiculous hyperbole.

    At worst they are a mild inconvenience.

    If he can row back and reverse any, he would be a hostage to fortune after the first child died as a result of his sanctioning additional speed.
    Good point.
    And what about all those government public-service broadcasts about 'Kill Your Speed' etc.? Presumably Rishi will have to order them to be taken off air.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    i) You are right
    ii) Thank you for the interesting link which I read
    iii) This is the absolute f****** state of British drones: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/examining-the-deployment-of-the-u-k-s-troubled-watchkeeper-drones-at-fort-bliss
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    edited September 2023
    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    I think you are describing an LTN, not a 15-minute neighbourhood.

    For example, modern housing developments are always LTNs, but very much NOT 15-minute neighbourhoods because the developers never invest in local GPs, dentists, pubs, schools, corner shops...
    IMO that's not true.

    Just looking at one of our smallish local developments which has got PP recently:

    "... more than £850,000 in developer contributions – including £481,114 for primary school places – will be provided to shore up local services"
    ...
    “Countryside Properties will be making contributions towards primary school education, open space, healthcare, libraries and improvements to footpaths.

    https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/110-new-homes-built-sutton-5688170

    Interesting from Zadrozny, in a huff:
    Cllr Zadrozny, the leader of the council, said: “I can promise in future that developers won’t get a greased sausage through my planning committee without building a better relationship [with the council].
    Developers are famous for promising that there will be facilities, bit not so good about actually ensuring they exist. In fact, one might go as far as saying that they indulge in the time-honoured technique of "fibbing"
    Usually the money is given to the Council - often phased as parts of the development complete, and the Council spend it on the works.

    eg A developer can't self-build a classroom for a local school themselves where required.

    It's quite reliable afaics, raising £5-£10bn a year for Councils in England.
  • ...

    Why are 20mph zones a "war on motorists" as Sunak claims?

    Ridiculous hyperbole.

    At worst they are a mild inconvenience.

    If he can row back and reverse any, he would be a hostage to fortune after the first child died as a result of his sanctioning additional speed.
    Good point.
    And what about all those government public-service broadcasts about 'Kill Your Speed' etc.? Presumably Rishi will have to order them to be taken off air.
    Charlie says: Get a bloody move on, I haven't got all day you know.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    MattW said:

    ...

    Why are 20mph zones a "war on motorists" as Sunak claims?

    Ridiculous hyperbole.

    At worst they are a mild inconvenience.

    If he can row back and reverse any, he would be a hostage to fortune after the first child died as a result of his sanctioning additional speed.
    Good point.
    He's on a hiding to nothing imo - even accepting I have been bitterly contemptuous.

    How is his "stop vicious parking enforcement" going to play with someone like me who was always forced into traffic by antisocial when I was taking my mum anywhere in her wheelchair in her last years?

    Never mind parents with kids in buggies and so on.
    Hah! Missing word.

    Antisocial -> Antisocial parking.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    i) You are right
    ii) Thank you for the interesting link which I read
    iii) This is the absolute f****** state of British drones: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/examining-the-deployment-of-the-u-k-s-troubled-watchkeeper-drones-at-fort-bliss
    The plus side is that the picture is changing so fast it will not be difficult to skip several generations of drones and produce something that can survive on the battlefield of the future. And then we better start working out how the hell we stop terrorists from causing chaos with these things.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    Only 5% of tanks lost by either side have been lost to other tanks. This isn't Operation Citadel revisited
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Just give the Serb majority areas back to Serbia. It's not rocket science.
    And India give its Muslim majority areas to Pakistan? I think that might just lead to a lot more science about rockets...
  • viewcode said:

    AlsoLei said:

    My worry isn't so much about him trying to ban me from walking to the shops, it's more about whether he's going to lean more heavily on conspiracy theories in the future. If he goes full QAnon in a desperate attempt to save his skin, he could risk poisoning our politics for a generation.

    I think this is true. He falls into the trap that so many clever people (and those who think they are clever) fall into, namely they "did their research" (trans: googled a thing) and found something which they believe. This is particularly true of those who use Twitter. He's not appealing to conspiracy theories. He is a conspiracy theorist. He's too clever to realise he's being stupid.

    See also Sunak's championing of the "we might already be at herd immunity" theory in autumn 2020.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    i) You are right
    ii) Thank you for the interesting link which I read
    iii) This is the absolute f****** state of British drones: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/examining-the-deployment-of-the-u-k-s-troubled-watchkeeper-drones-at-fort-bliss
    The plus side is that the picture is changing so fast it will not be difficult to skip several generations of drones and produce something that can survive on the battlefield of the future. And then we better start working out how the hell we stop terrorists from causing chaos with these things.
    In order to survive in the future battlefield the drones have to be immune to electronic countermeasures. This in turn means that they will become autonomous, targeted killing machines.

    Fine as long as they are friendly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    Only 5% of tanks lost by either side have been lost to other tanks. This isn't Operation Citadel revisited
    On a battlefield where £500m tanks are being taken out by £50k drones there won't be any tanks. They are pointless.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    I suppose it will make CCF and other cadet forces more attractive if they can offer kids the chance of a PlayStation handset with their uniform instead of wet weekends on Salisbury plain or the Black Mountains.
  • DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    I've a fancy Dominic Cummings forecast as much under Boris.
  • DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    Only 5% of tanks lost by either side have been lost to other tanks. This isn't Operation Citadel revisited
    On a battlefield where £500m tanks are being taken out by £50k drones there won't be any tanks. They are pointless.
    Tanks were always vulnerable to aircraft though, even in the Second World War.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    Only 5% of tanks lost by either side have been lost to other tanks. This isn't Operation Citadel revisited
    On a battlefield where £500m tanks are being taken out by £50k drones there won't be any tanks. They are pointless.
    This is quite something. Taking cover is going to become impossible.

    https://twitter.com/Vuk02577707/status/1708069508907192503?t=hcJARjNvUmGwhbaC55C5DQ&s=19
  • MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    I think you are describing an LTN, not a 15-minute neighbourhood.

    For example, modern housing developments are always LTNs, but very much NOT 15-minute neighbourhoods because the developers never invest in local GPs, dentists, pubs, schools, corner shops...
    IMO that's not true.

    Just looking at one of our smallish local developments which has got PP recently:

    "... more than £850,000 in developer contributions – including £481,114 for primary school places – will be provided to shore up local services"
    ...
    “Countryside Properties will be making contributions towards primary school education, open space, healthcare, libraries and improvements to footpaths.

    https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/110-new-homes-built-sutton-5688170

    Interesting from Zadrozny, in a huff:
    Cllr Zadrozny, the leader of the council, said: “I can promise in future that developers won’t get a greased sausage through my planning committee without building a better relationship [with the council].
    Developers are famous for promising that there will be facilities, bit not so good about actually ensuring they exist. In fact, one might go as far as saying that they indulge in the time-honoured technique of "fibbing"
    Usually the money is given to the Council - often phased as parts of the development complete, and the Council spend it on the works.

    eg A developer can't self-build a classroom for a local school themselves where required.

    It's quite reliable afaics, raising £5-£10bn a year for Councils in England.
    Part of the trouble is that a lot of developments are little bits of infill, far too small to justify an actual new surgery or school or whatever. (500ish families for a single GP, probably about the same for a one form entry school, that sort of thing.)

    So a fair bit of cash gets allocated to improvements or bits of expansion at exisiting facilities. And you don't always get the right facilities in the right place at the right time. That's before considering the problem that it's really tempting for councils to use developer contributions to do ongoing repairs that ought to be funded out of ongoing income, but can't be.

  • Stewart Wood
    @StewartWood
    ·
    6h
    It takes some serious political communications genius to make escalating rumours of a plan to axe #HS2 the dominant story of your Manchester Party Conference. #ToryPartyConference

    https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1708044206239834572
  • DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    Only 5% of tanks lost by either side have been lost to other tanks. This isn't Operation Citadel revisited
    On a battlefield where £500m tanks are being taken out by £50k drones there won't be any tanks. They are pointless.
    Tanks were always vulnerable to aircraft though, even in the Second World War.
    True, but the relative cost was greatly different from now, the aircraft was less likely to take out the tank, and was in turn vulnerable to accompanying infantry.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    I think you are describing an LTN, not a 15-minute neighbourhood.

    For example, modern housing developments are always LTNs, but very much NOT 15-minute neighbourhoods because the developers never invest in local GPs, dentists, pubs, schools, corner shops...
    IMO that's not true.

    Just looking at one of our smallish local developments which has got PP recently:

    "... more than £850,000 in developer contributions – including £481,114 for primary school places – will be provided to shore up local services"
    ...
    “Countryside Properties will be making contributions towards primary school education, open space, healthcare, libraries and improvements to footpaths.

    https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/110-new-homes-built-sutton-5688170

    Interesting from Zadrozny, in a huff:
    Cllr Zadrozny, the leader of the council, said: “I can promise in future that developers won’t get a greased sausage through my planning committee without building a better relationship [with the council].
    Developers are famous for promising that there will be facilities, bit not so good about actually ensuring they exist. In fact, one might go as far as saying that they indulge in the time-honoured technique of "fibbing"
    Usually the money is given to the Council - often phased as parts of the development complete, and the Council spend it on the works.

    eg A developer can't self-build a classroom for a local school themselves where required.

    It's quite reliable afaics, raising £5-£10bn a year for Councils in England.
    300 homes are being built in this small town, increasing the population by some 20%, and the developers ‘promised’ to do something for the town. An offer of assistance with a local event has now been withdrawn and it would appear that the District Council is spending any monies received elsewhere in the district.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    i) You are right
    ii) Thank you for the interesting link which I read
    iii) This is the absolute f****** state of British drones: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/examining-the-deployment-of-the-u-k-s-troubled-watchkeeper-drones-at-fort-bliss
    The plus side is that the picture is changing so fast it will not be difficult to skip several generations of drones and produce something that can survive on the battlefield of the future. And then we better start working out how the hell we stop terrorists from causing chaos with these things.
    In order to survive in the future battlefield the drones have to be immune to electronic countermeasures. This in turn means that they will become autonomous, targeted killing machines.

    Fine as long as they are friendly.
    The logical conclusion is that they will be AI operated (and thus largely immune from electronic countermeasures) and that they will come in swarms because they will be as cheap as chips. At which point, as I have been saying for a while, battlefields will be machine against machine and any humans there simply will not survive.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Drone warfare spells curtains for the military industrial complex as we know it. Nerds with drones will be the army of the future.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    Only 5% of tanks lost by either side have been lost to other tanks. This isn't Operation Citadel revisited
    On a battlefield where £500m tanks are being taken out by £50k drones there won't be any tanks. They are pointless.
    The Royal Navy needs to notice that Ukraines naval drones are looking like a naval victory in the Black Sea for a country without a single functioning ship.

    China and Taiwan probably taking notes too.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    AlsoLei said:

    My comment on August 18th: "Here's a left-field idea to solve the parking app problem: have the government create a single national parking app."

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4510585#Comment_4510585
    It honestly wouldn't surprise me if a lot of ministers, wonks and special advisors scan the comments for inspiration or ideas.

    The 100-200 people who regularly post on here are an influential bunch.
    I severely doubt that, for both points.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    Only 5% of tanks lost by either side have been lost to other tanks. This isn't Operation Citadel revisited
    On a battlefield where £500m tanks are being taken out by £50k drones there won't be any tanks. They are pointless.
    £500m? Where are you buying your tanks???
  • MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    I think you are describing an LTN, not a 15-minute neighbourhood.

    For example, modern housing developments are always LTNs, but very much NOT 15-minute neighbourhoods because the developers never invest in local GPs, dentists, pubs, schools, corner shops...
    IMO that's not true.

    Just looking at one of our smallish local developments which has got PP recently:

    "... more than £850,000 in developer contributions – including £481,114 for primary school places – will be provided to shore up local services"
    ...
    “Countryside Properties will be making contributions towards primary school education, open space, healthcare, libraries and improvements to footpaths.

    https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/110-new-homes-built-sutton-5688170

    Interesting from Zadrozny, in a huff:
    Cllr Zadrozny, the leader of the council, said: “I can promise in future that developers won’t get a greased sausage through my planning committee without building a better relationship [with the council].
    Developers are famous for promising that there will be facilities, bit not so good about actually ensuring they exist. In fact, one might go as far as saying that they indulge in the time-honoured technique of "fibbing"
    Usually the money is given to the Council - often phased as parts of the development complete, and the Council spend it on the works.

    eg A developer can't self-build a classroom for a local school themselves where required.

    It's quite reliable afaics, raising £5-£10bn a year for Councils in England.
    300 homes are being built in this small town, increasing the population by some 20%, and the developers ‘promised’ to do something for the town. An offer of assistance with a local event has now been withdrawn and it would appear that the District Council is spending any monies received elsewhere in the district.
    There's your next campaign leaflet then ...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    i) You are right
    ii) Thank you for the interesting link which I read
    iii) This is the absolute f****** state of British drones: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/examining-the-deployment-of-the-u-k-s-troubled-watchkeeper-drones-at-fort-bliss
    That’s the official Big And Expensive program , bought to by Big & Expensive (aka BAe)

    Strangely, it is big and expensive. And not very good.

    https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2023/09/army-to-showcase-jet-propelled-drone-with-laser-guided-missile/

    Is the result of the “not proper weapons” people getting to lash stuff together. The heavy carrying drone in question is in use in Ukraine, I believe.

    One thing that wars like Ukraine does is to let the “not proper weapons” types loose. For example, a number of missile launching systems (ground, but often launching ordinarily air launches) have shown up in Ukraine, which bear a resemblance to test rigs that have been around for years, in the U.K., weaponised.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    Only 5% of tanks lost by either side have been lost to other tanks. This isn't Operation Citadel revisited
    On a battlefield where £500m tanks are being taken out by £50k drones there won't be any tanks. They are pointless.
    £500m? Where are you buying your tanks???
    Ok, I have got that out by a multiple of 100 but the advantage to drones is still spectacular.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    boulay said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    I suppose it will make CCF and other cadet forces more attractive if they can offer kids the chance of a PlayStation handset with their uniform instead of wet weekends on Salisbury plain or the Black Mountains.
    Why do you think that XBox controller clones are already the interface of choice for a number of new weapons systems?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Just give the Serb majority areas back to Serbia. It's not rocket science.
    And India give its Muslim majority areas to Pakistan? I think that might just lead to a lot more science about rockets...
    Isn’t this what the “realists” are arguing for with respect to Ukraine? Just give up all the bits that they (the realists) say should be Russian.

    Fact on the ground…
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    I think you are describing an LTN, not a 15-minute neighbourhood.

    For example, modern housing developments are always LTNs, but very much NOT 15-minute neighbourhoods because the developers never invest in local GPs, dentists, pubs, schools, corner shops...
    IMO that's not true.

    Just looking at one of our smallish local developments which has got PP recently:

    "... more than £850,000 in developer contributions – including £481,114 for primary school places – will be provided to shore up local services"
    ...
    “Countryside Properties will be making contributions towards primary school education, open space, healthcare, libraries and improvements to footpaths.

    https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/110-new-homes-built-sutton-5688170

    Interesting from Zadrozny, in a huff:
    Cllr Zadrozny, the leader of the council, said: “I can promise in future that developers won’t get a greased sausage through my planning committee without building a better relationship [with the council].
    Developers are famous for promising that there will be facilities, bit not so good about actually ensuring they exist. In fact, one might go as far as saying that they indulge in the time-honoured technique of "fibbing"
    Usually the money is given to the Council - often phased as parts of the development complete, and the Council spend it on the works.

    eg A developer can't self-build a classroom for a local school themselves where required.

    It's quite reliable afaics, raising £5-£10bn a year for Councils in England.
    300 homes are being built in this small town, increasing the population by some 20%, and the developers ‘promised’ to do something for the town. An offer of assistance with a local event has now been withdrawn and it would appear that the District Council is spending any monies received elsewhere in the district.
    There's your next campaign leaflet then ...
    The District is Conservative controlled; our town’s Councillors are members of the Opposition (Independent/Green) Group.
    The County Councillor is also Green.
  • CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Just give the Serb majority areas back to Serbia. It's not rocket science.
    And India give its Muslim majority areas to Pakistan? I think that might just lead to a lot more science about rockets...
    Oh, almost forgot: the Brits gave the majority Protestant area of Ireland to the UK in 1921.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    boulay said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    I suppose it will make CCF and other cadet forces more attractive if they can offer kids the chance of a PlayStation handset with their uniform instead of wet weekends on Salisbury plain or the Black Mountains.
    They will go to war whilst never needing to leave their bedrooms.
  • CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Just give the Serb majority areas back to Serbia. It's not rocket science.
    And India give its Muslim majority areas to Pakistan? I think that might just lead to a lot more science about rockets...
    Isn’t this what the “realists” are arguing for with respect to Ukraine? Just give up all the bits that they (the realists) say should be Russian.

    Fact on the ground…
    Save for Crimea, I don't think there actually are any majority Russian oblasts in Ukraine.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Oryx's penultimate article.
    Pretty good, too.

    Shared Threats, Unequal Efforts: Belgium’s Free-Riding Approach To NATO’s Defence

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/09/shared-threats-unequal-efforts-belgiums.html?m=1
    ...These investments become even more baffling when one takes into account Belgium's current lack of air defence capabilities. Belgium doesn't have outdated or ineffective air defence systems; rather, it lacks any type of ground-based air defence system. This places Belgium among a trio of NATO countries without air defence systems—joining Luxembourg and Iceland (the latter of which lacks a military altogether)...

    Makes our military look a model of good procurement and excellent planning.
    Which takes some doing.
  • CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Just give the Serb majority areas back to Serbia. It's not rocket science.
    And India give its Muslim majority areas to Pakistan?
    I thought that already happened in 1947!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Sunak will look back and deeply regret how he has allowed his premiership to spiral into such obvious signs of desperation and ultrashort term stupidities.

    He could have had an honourable place in the history books. Steadied the ship, governed sensibly in the national interest for a couple of years, enacted one or two long term policies that have stood the test of time etc etc. Then defeated with honour and handed over without rancor.

    Now...

    I think you're talking him up. Ostensibly he seems a very clever and rather nice guy. The sort of person that you'd trust to be PM. However his actions since becoming PM are unintelligent, weak and feeble. Obviously he's better than Truss (who is the absolute zero of political wisdom), but he's not even managed the slightest political glimmer.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Just give the Serb majority areas back to Serbia. It's not rocket science.
    And India give its Muslim majority areas to Pakistan? I think that might just lead to a lot more science about rockets...
    Isn’t this what the “realists” are arguing for with respect to Ukraine? Just give up all the bits that they (the realists) say should be Russian.

    Fact on the ground…
    Save for Crimea, I don't think there actually are any majority Russian oblasts in Ukraine.
    I don’t think Crimea was actually majority Russian when it was ‘taken over’.
  • CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Just give the Serb majority areas back to Serbia. It's not rocket science.
    And India give its Muslim majority areas to Pakistan? I think that might just lead to a lot more science about rockets...
    Isn’t this what the “realists” are arguing for with respect to Ukraine? Just give up all the bits that they (the realists) say should be Russian.

    Fact on the ground…
    Y axis starts at zero :)

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Just give the Serb majority areas back to Serbia. It's not rocket science.
    And India give its Muslim majority areas to Pakistan?
    I thought that already happened in 1947!
    There are still Muslim majority areas in India today.....
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717

    CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Just give the Serb majority areas back to Serbia. It's not rocket science.
    And India give its Muslim majority areas to Pakistan?
    I thought that already happened in 1947!
    There are still Muslim majority areas in India today.....
    There probably are in London too

  • As for the Tories themselves, honesty should surely compel them to rebrand. Not, perhaps, as the Essex MP Robert Halfon has suggested, as the Workers party – too Pyongyang – but as a People’s party, candidly admitting their own new, nationalist populist identity. Though maybe that would sound too European, too continental, to their ear.

    In which case, here’s a more modest proposal: a change of logo, to an image that more accurately reflects the party they have become. The Conservatives should ditch the squiggly drawing of a tree, with its hint of reverence for nature, time and the past – and replace it with a bonfire, burning the whole lot down.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/29/rishi-sunak-conservative-party-braverman-net-zero
  • Omnium said:

    Sunak will look back and deeply regret how he has allowed his premiership to spiral into such obvious signs of desperation and ultrashort term stupidities.

    He could have had an honourable place in the history books. Steadied the ship, governed sensibly in the national interest for a couple of years, enacted one or two long term policies that have stood the test of time etc etc. Then defeated with honour and handed over without rancor.

    Now...

    I think you're talking him up. Ostensibly he seems a very clever and rather nice guy. The sort of person that you'd trust to be PM. However his actions since becoming PM are unintelligent, weak and feeble. Obviously he's better than Truss (who is the absolute zero of political wisdom), but he's not even managed the slightest political glimmer.
    The first time he really came to prominence was when he got promoted to Chancellor. Which involved donning the gimp mask for Dom Cummings in a way that no self-respecting politician should.

    When someone shows you what they're like and all that...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Omnium said:

    Sunak will look back and deeply regret how he has allowed his premiership to spiral into such obvious signs of desperation and ultrashort term stupidities.

    He could have had an honourable place in the history books. Steadied the ship, governed sensibly in the national interest for a couple of years, enacted one or two long term policies that have stood the test of time etc etc. Then defeated with honour and handed over without rancor.

    Now...

    I think you're talking him up. Ostensibly he seems a very clever and rather nice guy. The sort of person that you'd trust to be PM. However his actions since becoming PM are unintelligent, weak and feeble. Obviously he's better than Truss (who is the absolute zero of political wisdom), but he's not even managed the slightest political glimmer.
    The first time he really came to prominence was when he got promoted to Chancellor. Which involved donning the gimp mask for Dom Cummings in a way that no self-respecting politician should.

    When someone shows you what they're like and all that...
    And there was that Smithson chap, bigging him up :)

    (No cap doffing intended to Mike here, but I wanted him to win that one)
  • geoffw said:

    CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Just give the Serb majority areas back to Serbia. It's not rocket science.
    And India give its Muslim majority areas to Pakistan?
    I thought that already happened in 1947!
    There are still Muslim majority areas in India today.....
    There probably are in London too

    Ilford North is 50% Muslim (2021 Census).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    As for the Tories themselves, honesty should surely compel them to rebrand. Not, perhaps, as the Essex MP Robert Halfon has suggested, as the Workers party – too Pyongyang – but as a People’s party, candidly admitting their own new, nationalist populist identity. Though maybe that would sound too European, too continental, to their ear.

    In which case, here’s a more modest proposal: a change of logo, to an image that more accurately reflects the party they have become. The Conservatives should ditch the squiggly drawing of a tree, with its hint of reverence for nature, time and the past – and replace it with a bonfire, burning the whole lot down.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/29/rishi-sunak-conservative-party-braverman-net-zero

    Or a tree stump?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    Only 5% of tanks lost by either side have been lost to other tanks. This isn't Operation Citadel revisited
    On a battlefield where £500m tanks are being taken out by £50k drones there won't be any tanks. They are pointless.
    The Royal Navy needs to notice that Ukraines naval drones are looking like a naval victory in the Black Sea for a country without a single functioning ship.

    China and Taiwan probably taking notes too.

    China in particular, would be appalled to learn that just about everything it intended to use against Taiwan was now obsolescent.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348
    boulay said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    I suppose it will make CCF and other cadet forces more attractive if they can offer kids the chance of a PlayStation handset with their uniform instead of wet weekends on Salisbury plain or the Black Mountains.
    You'll always need boots on the ground.

    Drones are great for inflicting complete destruction. But, sometimes, complete destruction is not what you're looking for.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    edited September 2023
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    Only 5% of tanks lost by either side have been lost to other tanks. This isn't Operation Citadel revisited
    On a battlefield where £500m tanks are being taken out by £50k drones there won't be any tanks. They are pointless.
    The Royal Navy needs to notice that Ukraines naval drones are looking like a naval victory in the Black Sea for a country without a single functioning ship.

    China and Taiwan probably taking notes too.

    China in particular, would be appalled to learn that just about everything it intended to use against Taiwan was now obsolescent.
    Happily the Royal Navy in recent years hasn't bothered too much with spending money on functioning ships.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    Only 5% of tanks lost by either side have been lost to other tanks. This isn't Operation Citadel revisited
    On a battlefield where £500m tanks are being taken out by £50k drones there won't be any tanks. They are pointless.
    £500m? Where are you buying your tanks???
    You have to procure it from the approved supplier list even if you can buy it for £5m from your local Challenger 2 dealer.

    It's a little like the NHS buying 16 paracetamol for a tenner when you can buy them yourself for 50p at Aldi.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348

    CatMan said:

    Serbs are building up troops along the Kosovo border.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/29/kosovo-serbian-troops-buildup-us-uk

    Just give the Serb majority areas back to Serbia. It's not rocket science.
    And India give its Muslim majority areas to Pakistan? I think that might just lead to a lot more science about rockets...
    Isn’t this what the “realists” are arguing for with respect to Ukraine? Just give up all the bits that they (the realists) say should be Russian.

    Fact on the ground…
    "Realists" take the view that Eastern Europe needs a gendarme, and that gendarme is Russia.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    Only 5% of tanks lost by either side have been lost to other tanks. This isn't Operation Citadel revisited
    On a battlefield where £500m tanks are being taken out by £50k drones there won't be any tanks. They are pointless.
    The Royal Navy needs to notice that Ukraines naval drones are looking like a naval victory in the Black Sea for a country without a single functioning ship.

    China and Taiwan probably taking notes too.

    China in particular, would be appalled to learn that just about everything it intended to use against Taiwan was now obsolescent.
    The kit it has bought from Russia has been shown to be especially useless.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    i) You are right
    ii) Thank you for the interesting link which I read
    iii) This is the absolute f****** state of British drones: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/examining-the-deployment-of-the-u-k-s-troubled-watchkeeper-drones-at-fort-bliss
    That’s the official Big And Expensive program , bought to by Big & Expensive (aka BAe)

    Strangely, it is big and expensive. And not very good.

    https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2023/09/army-to-showcase-jet-propelled-drone-with-laser-guided-missile/

    Is the result of the “not proper weapons” people getting to lash stuff together. The heavy carrying drone in question is in use in Ukraine, I believe.

    One thing that wars like Ukraine does is to let the “not proper weapons” types loose. For example, a number of missile launching systems (ground, but often launching ordinarily air launches) have shown up in Ukraine, which bear a resemblance to test rigs that have been around for years, in the U.K., weaponised.

    It actually takes a war (often more than one) to reveal obsolescence.

    In August 1914, the armies of France and Germany were using tactics that were hardly changed from the Napoleonic era, despite the fact that rifles could now shoot accurately up to 1,000 yards. Generals still believed that massed cavalry charges could be decisive. Casualty rates were off the scale, during the first three months of the fighting, and it was only the adoption of trench warfare that cut death rates substantially.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    i) You are right
    ii) Thank you for the interesting link which I read
    iii) This is the absolute f****** state of British drones: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/examining-the-deployment-of-the-u-k-s-troubled-watchkeeper-drones-at-fort-bliss
    That’s the official Big And Expensive program , bought to by Big & Expensive (aka BAe)

    Strangely, it is big and expensive. And not very good.

    https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2023/09/army-to-showcase-jet-propelled-drone-with-laser-guided-missile/

    Is the result of the “not proper weapons” people getting to lash stuff together. The heavy carrying drone in question is in use in Ukraine, I believe.

    One thing that wars like Ukraine does is to let the “not proper weapons” types loose. For example, a number of missile launching systems (ground, but often launching ordinarily air launches) have shown up in Ukraine, which bear a resemblance to test rigs that have been around for years, in the U.K., weaponised.

    It actually takes a war (often more than one) to reveal obsolescence.

    In August 1914, the armies of France and Germany were using tactics that were hardly changed from the Napoleonic era, despite the fact that rifles could now shoot accurately up to 1,000 yards. Generals still believed that massed cavalry charges could be decisive. Casualty rates were off the scale, during the first three months of the fighting, and it was only the adoption of trench warfare that cut death rates substantially.
    Now you're a sitting duck if you're in a trench

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,376
    Fiji so good against Wales and Australia are incredibly mediocre so far against Georgia
  • viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    nova said:

    AlsoLei said:

    darkage said:

    About 6 months ago I was having arguments with 'professionals' who sought to characterise all opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as 'conspiracy theorists' peddeling 'misinformation'. They tried to do the familiar thing where they characterise anyone they disagree with as being abusive with the idea that they should be shut down on the basis of hate speech. In this context it is quite interesting to now see opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods as forming government policy. Some people just cannot come to terms with democracy.

    Er. As I understand it, a 15 minute city is one in which there's a GP surgery, a bus stop, a supermarket, and a pub or cafe within about 15 minutes walk - like a traditional British city. And not building American-style super suburbs without any element of commercial or retail mixed in.

    So... why would that be subject to conspiracy theories?

    Have I missed something obvious here?

    ETA: Oh, obviously I have - the BBC are reporting that Dogshit Rishi is going to 'Stop councils implementing "15-minute cities", where essential amenities are always within a 15-minute walk'. WTF?
    The conspiracy is a pretty much Covid grifters looking for a new angle.

    Some of the 15 minute City plans involve restrictions on where you can drive. I think Oxford had it that you could drive through the centre of town a couple of hundred times a year, but after that you'd be fined. They wanted people going from one outer zone to another to use ring roads and avoid the centre to cut down congestion.

    The conspiracy is that this is a precursor to a "stay in your zone" plan. If we have everything within 15 minutes, they will then stop anyone leaving the zone at all, so the state knows where we are at all times.

    It's obviously bollocks, but so many people are down the rabbit hole already, that it's taken a real hold in the post-covid conspiracy theory community.

    It's embarrassing that the PM is latching onto it, as it's clearly a dog whistle for conspiracy theorists.
    I think you are describing an LTN, not a 15-minute neighbourhood.

    For example, modern housing developments are always LTNs, but very much NOT 15-minute neighbourhoods because the developers never invest in local GPs, dentists, pubs, schools, corner shops...
    IMO that's not true.

    Just looking at one of our smallish local developments which has got PP recently:

    "... more than £850,000 in developer contributions – including £481,114 for primary school places – will be provided to shore up local services"
    ...
    “Countryside Properties will be making contributions towards primary school education, open space, healthcare, libraries and improvements to footpaths.

    https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/nottingham-news/110-new-homes-built-sutton-5688170

    Interesting from Zadrozny, in a huff:
    Cllr Zadrozny, the leader of the council, said: “I can promise in future that developers won’t get a greased sausage through my planning committee without building a better relationship [with the council].
    Developers are famous for promising that there will be facilities, bit not so good about actually ensuring they exist. In fact, one might go as far as saying that they indulge in the time-honoured technique of "fibbing"
    Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

    We have a chronic housing shortage, developers should be building houses.

    Healthcare, education etc should be coming from taxes, not developments.

    Insisting on perfection is just an excuse for NIMBYs. Houses should be built one house at a time, or as many houses are needed. If schools are built, then build them as needed and so on.
  • Sean_F said:

    boulay said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    I suppose it will make CCF and other cadet forces more attractive if they can offer kids the chance of a PlayStation handset with their uniform instead of wet weekends on Salisbury plain or the Black Mountains.
    You'll always need boots on the ground.

    Drones are great for inflicting complete destruction. But, sometimes, complete destruction is not what you're looking for.
    "He will make an excellent drone!"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    i) You are right
    ii) Thank you for the interesting link which I read
    iii) This is the absolute f****** state of British drones: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/examining-the-deployment-of-the-u-k-s-troubled-watchkeeper-drones-at-fort-bliss
    That’s the official Big And Expensive program , bought to by Big & Expensive (aka BAe)

    Strangely, it is big and expensive. And not very good.

    https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2023/09/army-to-showcase-jet-propelled-drone-with-laser-guided-missile/

    Is the result of the “not proper weapons” people getting to lash stuff together. The heavy carrying drone in question is in use in Ukraine, I believe.

    One thing that wars like Ukraine does is to let the “not proper weapons” types loose. For example, a number of missile launching systems (ground, but often launching ordinarily air launches) have shown up in Ukraine, which bear a resemblance to test rigs that have been around for years, in the U.K., weaponised.

    It actually takes a war (often more than one) to reveal obsolescence.

    In August 1914, the armies of France and Germany were using tactics that were hardly changed from the Napoleonic era, despite the fact that rifles could now shoot accurately up to 1,000 yards. Generals still believed that massed cavalry charges could be decisive. Casualty rates were off the scale, during the first three months of the fighting, and it was only the adoption of trench warfare that cut death rates substantially.
    We learnt that lesson in the Boer War.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    Sean_F said:

    boulay said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    I suppose it will make CCF and other cadet forces more attractive if they can offer kids the chance of a PlayStation handset with their uniform instead of wet weekends on Salisbury plain or the Black Mountains.
    You'll always need boots on the ground.

    Drones are great for inflicting complete destruction. But, sometimes, complete destruction is not what you're looking for.
    Another Simpsons prediction comes true

    https://youtu.be/oazwTDeqF54?si=Dn4CkWZ-H5s_VEWg
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    Clark getting the treatment lol
  • Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    i) You are right
    ii) Thank you for the interesting link which I read
    iii) This is the absolute f****** state of British drones: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/examining-the-deployment-of-the-u-k-s-troubled-watchkeeper-drones-at-fort-bliss
    That’s the official Big And Expensive program , bought to by Big & Expensive (aka BAe)

    Strangely, it is big and expensive. And not very good.

    https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2023/09/army-to-showcase-jet-propelled-drone-with-laser-guided-missile/

    Is the result of the “not proper weapons” people getting to lash stuff together. The heavy carrying drone in question is in use in Ukraine, I believe.

    One thing that wars like Ukraine does is to let the “not proper weapons” types loose. For example, a number of missile launching systems (ground, but often launching ordinarily air launches) have shown up in Ukraine, which bear a resemblance to test rigs that have been around for years, in the U.K., weaponised.

    It actually takes a war (often more than one) to reveal obsolescence.

    In August 1914, the armies of France and Germany were using tactics that were hardly changed from the Napoleonic era, despite the fact that rifles could now shoot accurately up to 1,000 yards. Generals still believed that massed cavalry charges could be decisive. Casualty rates were off the scale, during the first three months of the fighting, and it was only the adoption of trench warfare that cut death rates substantially.
    Indeed. 1914-18 went from Napoleonic cavalry charges and open cannon, through to blitzkreig in four years. WW2 went from trenches to the atom bomb in six (the trenches never really got used but they were dug). Ironically, trenches are back again now that tanks, which played a meaningful part in breaking the trenches in WW1, are again more vulnerable and defence has the upper hand.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Mildly surprised to find the female rugby commentator perfectly agreeable, dinosaur that I am
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,035
    Omnium said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent article by Mark Sumner in Daily Kos about how the evolution of drone warfare is making every army on earth as obsolete as wooden ships were following the first iron clads: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/29/2196346/-Ukraine-Update-Every-army-in-the-world-is-obsolete

    The importance of drones and the speed with which they have been developed in the Ukraine means we really need to re-equip our armed forces from scratch. Oh, and the warriors of the future are more likely to have spent their childhood on Call of Duty than the playing fields of Eton.

    Only 5% of tanks lost by either side have been lost to other tanks. This isn't Operation Citadel revisited
    On a battlefield where £500m tanks are being taken out by £50k drones there won't be any tanks. They are pointless.
    The Royal Navy needs to notice that Ukraines naval drones are looking like a naval victory in the Black Sea for a country without a single functioning ship.

    China and Taiwan probably taking notes too.

    China in particular, would be appalled to learn that just about everything it intended to use against Taiwan was now obsolescent.
    Happily the Royal Navy in recent years hasn't bothered too much with spending money on functioning ships.
    Functioning ships are soooo 19th century. Correct pronouns are apparently far more important ....

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/30/royal-navy-inclusion-lgbtq-transgender-white-privilege/
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