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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The UKIP surge continues. How are the purples going to do
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The UKIP surge continues. How are the purples going to do at GE2015?
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Now, I'm not so sure. I'd probably still stick by my prediction, but I do strongly wonder if UKIP are in the same sort of position as Labour in the early 20s. Cameron just seems hapless. UKIP are sure to come top in the Euros, and do very well in local elections on the same day, and perhaps the bandwagon will still keep rolling.
Key thing: IMF's recommendations today are "fiscally neutral" - eg all extra spending offset by cuts. This is mainly a question of timing
So the IMF think Osborne has the fiscal balance right but should cut current spending by more to increase investment. Do you think they read PB too?
I like to think that UKIP will fall away, even reluctantly in respect of many supporters, as the full horror of a Miliband Premiership hoves into view. Speeches like today's are a good start and the tories best chance. They may not love the tories but look at the alternative. Scary.
Now that would be a by election Labour could do without.
Although it is worth remembering the Conservative Party has been successful and long-lived because it adapts. The 'New Labour' of 1997 was the SDP of 1987. Under Smith and Blair, 'New Labour' adopted those policies of the splittists that were most successful. Under whoever follows Cameron, I would not be surprised to see the Conservatives do the same.
Now, it may be the gulf is too wide to be bridged; for now at least, the old alliance between business and the metropolitan elite on the one hand, and the countryside and the social conservatives on the other seems to have broken down. And is worth remembering that Benn-ites had nowhere else to go; the metropolitan elite can (as they have done in Richmond-Upon-Thames in the past) lend their votes to the Yellow Peril.
But my gut would be that - unless there is a real breakthrough - then we will see UKIP achieving a low teens position with one to two seats in the near-term, and a gradual absorption of many of their policies by the Conservative Party in the medium term.
Really?
Do you think the young people of Britain have failed to notice that more than half of their counterparts in Southern Europe, inside the eurozone, have no jobs and no prospects?
And what's more, that the eurocrats don't even seem that concerned?
What drives them is not belief in a mythical golden age, but more a fear that they and their children are on the slide. UKIP supporters are consistently the most pessimistic of all party supporters in terms of their economic prospects. So long as real incomes remain static (pretty much the case across the West) so that fear will persist.
In any case there is some evidence to suggest UKIP have attracted middle aged and younger supporters as well. Their main problem is organisational. They need to build up their social networks and stop their voters drifting away. They also need a few parliamentary defectors and above all a news agenda that plays to their strengths.
Despite all our best efforts, we may be doomed to coalition government for the foreseeable future.
Interesting stat. Perhaps the experiences of those Scottish school leavers are a part of what drives the strong nationalist movement today....???
t
The challenge for UKIP is being able to break into large tracts of the UK, notably Scotland, Wales and London. To get 30% plus across the UK (which is probably what you'd need to top the poll), you are going to need huge levels of support in the south (ex London) to counter markedly lower support in London and Scotland (and to a lesser extent the North of England and Wales).
Mike - "A wonderful show Peter, a fab frock by the way. Here are the seats of the British jury - Green Party 1 seat .. Respect Party 1 seat .. The Speaker 1 seat .. Independent 1 seat .. Ukip 3 seats .. Plaid 3 seats .. SNP 12 seats .. Northern Ireland 18 seats .. and now for our top three .. LibDems 45seats .. Labour 280 seats .. and finally our top prize goes to .. those wonderful Conservatives with 285 seats."
Lab 29
Con 25
Lib 15
UKIP 16
-> Lab maj 30
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=25&TVCON=&LAB=29&TVLAB=&LIB=15&TVLIB=&UKIP=16®ion=All+GB+changed+seats&boundary=2010&seat=--Show+all--&minorparties=Y
It's astonishing how bad the Irish economy was in the mid 1980s too. I hadn't realised that youth unemployment there was 35% in 1985. (I also hadn't realised how much 'training schemes' flattered the reported unemployment numbers)
They will do well in the Euros 2014, but on the day after polling the only story that will matter will be the scottish referendum.
Ryanair and Easyjet should be the beneficiaries :-)
Regarding pessimism about economic prospects - rather odd seeing as UKIP supports are far less likely than others to be concerned about the economy. In the recent yougov poll on issues supporters of Conservatives, Labour and LibDem all put the economy top of their concerns, with between 58% and 70% seeing it as one of their top 3 or 4 issues. By contrast less than half of UKIP supporter thought the economy to be an issue, ranking only 3rd in their list of concerns.
The graph shows that the only exceptionally peculiar period was at the end of March/beginning of April.
Would London still be France's sixth biggest city if we left the EU? would the many many hard working EU citizens helping to drive the economy forward still be in London?
It seems doubtful to me.
Which I why I want to at least hear what Dave has to say on repatriated powers, as I suspect many others do.
- disgruntled Tories
- pretty much everyone in the socio-economic middle
- bitter ex-labour
so potentially a lot, easily over 30%.
However achieving that requires a) successfully steering a course through the weighted centre of gravity of those three blocs and b) the political class not finding a way to put the kibosh on them in some way e.g. through exceptional fines after messing up campaign contributions.
Say for the sake of argument they have a 30% chance of achieving A and a 40% chance of avoiding B then i think that would give them a 12% chance of doing very well and 88% chance of not much at all.
WRT pessimism, there are some numbers here from Yougov. I was partly mistaken. They are about as pessimistic as Labour supporters, but far more pessimistic than Conservatives or Lib Dems.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/c3o569hzch/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-200513.pdf
We all thought the 2005 result was a travesty at the time, but if 2015 doesn't result in another hung Parliament it will likely be even more of an aberration. As the combined votes for the two largest parties continues to decline some very odd results become likely under FPTP.
It may be the UKIP develops a coherent manifesto addressing the boring but necessary elements of government but I doubt it. And if they did there would still be the credibility issue. So that leaves them as a rump, single issue protest party cf The Greens and outside the political mainstream.
The more people say it’s the Elite vs the Little People, Us vs Them, as though there is a parallel political system they can somehow magic up, the more it actually sounds ridiculous and I think that that realisation will grow.
My portfolio is heavily laden with pro-UKIP bets but I note that some of the most respected punters on here - notably Richard Nabavi, Rod Crosby and Tim - take a different view. I so respect their opinions that I have reviewed my own position repeatedly in the past few days but I keep coing back to my original take. UKIP is a protest movement that spreads far and wide and will continue to grow for a long while yet, certainly up to and beyond the Euros and very probably into the 2015 GE. I expect somewhere between 10% and 15% of the national vote to go their way, and between 2 and 5 seats in the new Parliament. I know my three respected fellow posters and punters have well articulated reasons for opposing that view and are adamant that UKIP will finish up with nul seats, but I disagree. In places like Boston and Eastleigh they have fertile enough territory to win their first seats and given a fair wind they could greatly improve on even my prediction.
I note that some other serious punters and commentators are tending to agree with me and I should be very interested to hear from more. [Mad JackW appears to be on board already, although in his current deranged state I'm not sure that actually counts for much.]
Anyway, my money is down and like punters everywhere, I'm prepared to take it on the chin if wrong. But I don't think I am.
If there's one thing that might shoot UKIP's fox its real concessions from Europe.
We can normally rely on eurocrats to do the opposite of what we want, but who knows?
If you look at the Annual figures it is quite different:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/index.html
"the non-future of their grand-children"
No hyperbole there.
This is a Cleggasm/Rick Perry phenomenon, nothing whatsoever like Labour in the 1920s (who had a unified mass movement, leaders, a philosophy and a real set of genuine demands). It's not even as serious as the SDP of the 1980s. Anyway, their one and only policy demand has already been granted by the PM.
UKIP's best hope is to be a Beppo Grillo phenomenon, but that means keeping the bubble inflated for two whole years. Unlikely.
My ideal outcome would be for one of these recent proposals for a reformed "EEA plus" system, where we can sign external free trade deals, get some input on rule setting, and also escape most of the domestic regulation and most of the budget contribution. I think it's fanciful, but I'd like that best, followed by a complete failure. My worst outcome would be a middle of the road option, which is enough to persuade people temporarily that reform has happened and get a stay in vote, yet not enough to make it better than a network of free trade deals that we can get outside the EU.
You'd find that the Greens would want to stop it as it was going against nature....
Some others have less snazzy names - how would you like to name this putative current?
For example, the consequences of 40 years of pretending the inner-city gang culture didn't exist allowing it to get a little bit worse every year.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324949/Armed-officers-patrol-streets-LUTON-stop-dangerous-shoot-outs-feuding-gangs.html
It's a small country and more and more people are living outside the political class' ever-shrinking bubble.
The Cleggasm and Rick Perry's support lasted for a few weeks. Is that what you're predicting for UKIP? If not, you can't compare them.
Both are better at pandering to their constituencies than informing.
http://www.npr.org/2013/05/21/185839248/loss-of-timber-payments-cuts-deep-in-oregon
So, there's probably an 80%+ chance that every one of Farage and team will end up outside of parliament, meaning the spread would be set low. However, once they do start to win seats, they could pick up bucketfuls.
It's not inconceivable that UKIP could win the Euroelection next year with 30%+ of the vote and if the Conservatives panic, Farage plays it right, newspaper endorsements and defections follow and UKIP gain a place in the leaders' debates, that might roll through to the election. Of course, that's a lot of ifs but none of it is out of the question. Put another way, the chances of UKIP winning more than 80 seats are higher than the chances of the Lib Dems doing so.
I might be completely wrong, of course!
In a sense Germany may decide whether the UK stays in or leaves the EU. If they throw their weight behind the Dave then we will undoubtedly get some concessions. Trouble is, the Germans often agree with Britain but vote with France.
But then France has voted for Francois Hollande - and whilst that's their call, it must undoubtedly have weakened their position with Germany.
But look, what's that at the end? Quick - hide the decline. HIDE THE DECLINE.
Yes, 2013 has been a cold year to-date in the CET region, but it's only one year and we're not even 50% of the way through the year.
With regards to AGW we need to look globally and the theme remains the same- anomalous warmth.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/4
You might want it to be otherwise, and certainly UKIP need to work on it being otherwise to cement their recent progress in support, but it doesn't change the fact that UKIP support is built on the over 60s demographic.
To suggest otherwise is as much a nonsense as denying that Labour support is built mainly on the north of England, Scotland, Wales and London, or that Conservative support is built mainly on the South of England.
On the timing, they'll stay high (and possibly get higher still) until the narrative changes for some reason. I'm not going to predict a number of weeks.
IMF: UK a long way from recovery
"The UK economy is still a long way from "a strong and sustainable recovery", the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned."
"the IMF said austerity measures were acting as a drag on the economy"
"the view of the IMF was that the UK should consider slowing the pace of cuts"
Flanders: "The Fund has been saying for several years that the chancellor might have to slow the pace of deficit cuts if the economy continued to under-perform. In the staff's view, that day has now finally arrived"
Balls: "this is the call for action on jobs and growth that the IMF has been threatening to deliver for many months"
Who's right?
The IMF were never going to skewer Osborne - as host (and part-funder) he breathes down their necks and controls their message.
With regards to AGW we need to look globally and the theme remains the same- anomalous warmth.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/4
I thought this was a striking plot from that web page.
Vast swathes of the world classified as much warmer than average. Yes, England is cooler than average, but nowhere in the world is classified as much cooler than average.
I'm sure seant, and others like him, will be eager to tell us how astonishingly cold it is in Bhutan, or wherever, the next time that Europe has a record-breaking heatwave, but they will always refuse to look at the big picture.
With regards to AGW we need to look globally and the theme remains the same- anomalous warmth.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/4
So what ? Since we appear to be in that bit of the world which isn't prone to extremes of temperature, why are we making pointless efforts to control someone else's climate ?
Food imports.
1. We import lots of our food, so we're reliant on the climatic stability of other parts of the world where that food is grown.
2. The extra heat elsewhere will melt ice and expand the oceans, flooding many of our coastal settlements (and the ports through which we import our food and the nuclear power stations we've built around the coast).
At what point did I say there's a conspiracy to cover up the crime rate? Are you incapable of reading words?
I'm not entirely sure what will happen then, but I can see pretty much every party having a crisis, too far back, not far forward enough, the first polls from 6, 3, 2 months out. Everything seems pretty fragile to 'events'.
FFS there is no forecast rise in the sea that will destroy the UK within the next 100 yrs, the latest forecast was for about a foot rise over a century and the most glum assumptions were radically scaled back. So we have endless hype for a threat that doesn't exist.
Scientists and engineers are currently working on carbon nanotubes, suitable for stretching into space as a space elevator. Just bunch a load of these together, seal them and you have a carbon nanotube straw. Put one end in the ocean, and the vacuum of space will suck the water up. At the space end you will have a large ball of ice that can then be used as a large billiard ball to be fired to deflect any menacing asteroids.
Simples. ;-)
(Yes, I know all the rather large and varied problems with this idea. I just liked it when my nephew asked me whether it was possible).
The intervention by Steve Williams, chairman of the organisation which represents 130,000 frontline officers in England and Wales, is highly significant because it appears to confirm widespread public scepticism of how crime is recorded.
Official figures show crime is at an historic low, despite cuts to police budgets and staffing levels.
"Crimes are downgraded in seriousness or the numbers are hidden. For example, if 10 caravans are broken into overnight with 10 different victims it will sometimes be recorded as just one crime.
"And a stolen mobile phone will be recorded as lost property, and so will not appear in crime data at all.
"If there is a crime where there is little or no evidence, and little chance of police detecting it, then that will be screened out at a very early stage so it does not appear in the stats."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10052668/Police-ordered-to-slant-crime-data.html
For the ice ages the force involved was - it is thought - variations in the orbit of the Earth affecting the length of time that winter snow survived to reflect sunlight during northern hemisphere summer, with subsequent positive feedbacks to amplify this effect.
There is no magic temperature that the Earth's climate naturally reverts to - it changes in reaction to changes in the forcing applied. The observed forcings are pointing in one direction, towards continued warming, but there is a modest amount of randomness over short time and space periods that will confuse those who are willing to be confused.
ps rcs1000 - not sure if you saw my post last night but happy to confirm that bet at those odds
2. There is no forecast rise in sea levels in what's left on my lifetime or my kids lifetime which will have us living in boats. The scaremongering is just ridiculous. If you're worried about sea levels then go to coastal areas of China and tell them to use less energy. There's absolutely no reason why the UK should commit economic suicide when the people potentially most affected can't be bothered to look after themselves.
Has your nephew ever been shown a siphon in action?
I'm sure the Police Federation are completely honest when it comes to reporting stats and their members views regarding job cuts.
http://www.newsshopper.co.uk/news/10436107.Police_called_to_Woolwich__shooting____live_updates/?ref=mr