Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

A suggested betting market for Mid-Bedfordshire – politicalbetting.com

1356789

Comments

  • Greater Manchester was tried before - the outlying towns basically having the life sucked out of them by Manchester. Then the Tories abolished it and we had a few decades of disorganised chaos.

    Perhaps the change in approach is general relief that there is once again a regional organisation which this time is trying to work with the metropolitan boroughs rather than against them?
    In Greater London, there are still areas where there's resentment at being in Greater London at all, even getting on for 60 years on. Havering natch; here's something you won't hear Andrew Rosindell raising in Parliament;

    https://havering.blog/2023/04/22/andrew-rosindells-big-idea/

    Bromley and Bexley still have patches of "Kent, actually". It was probably a factor in Uxbridge. It's an unspoken, emotional factor in the ULEZ expansion.

    Is there something similar GM? When I was the other side of the Pennines, West Yorkshire was probably more acceptable than Greater Leeds.
  • Let us also be honest, Johnson wanted to expand ULEZ.

    So if he had done exactly what Khan had done, there would be no opposition, the Tories would be jumping up and down saying they'd solved pollution.

    This is nothing but political point scoring.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924

    In Greater London, there are still areas where there's resentment at being in Greater London at all, even getting on for 60 years on. Havering natch; here's something you won't hear Andrew Rosindell raising in Parliament;

    https://havering.blog/2023/04/22/andrew-rosindells-big-idea/

    Bromley and Bexley still have patches of "Kent, actually". It was probably a factor in Uxbridge. It's an unspoken, emotional factor in the ULEZ expansion.

    Is there something similar GM? When I was the other side of the Pennines, West Yorkshire was probably more acceptable than Greater Leeds.
    Saddleworth really doesn't like being part of GM.

    It claims to be in Yorkshire, despite being the wrong side of the Pennines.

    http://whiterose.saddleworth.net/whitered.htm
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,537
    edited August 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Labour are about 5 to 10% higher in the polls than they were at the time of the North Shropshire by election.

    The only poll in Mid
    Bedfordshire so far also has Labour ahead and the LDs 4th behind the Tories and an Independent

    "What to make of the Mid Bedfordshire opinion poll?" https://www.markpack.org.uk/171264/what-to-make-of-the-mid-bedfordshire-opinion-poll/
    That poll is utterly meaningless in terms of a by election. if you take a poll anywhere when Labour are doing well in the polls before a campaign starts you will find Labour ahead of the LDs even in LD targets and even held seats. To take a real life example which is far more extreme than this:

    S W Surrey:

    1997 the result was: Con 25.2k, LD 22.5k, Lab 5.3k

    In 2001 the result was Con 22.4k , LD 21.6k, Lab 4.3k

    Labour absolutely no where in either election and a very tight Con/LD marginal.

    A poll carried out prior to the campaign in 2001 in S W Surrey put Lab in 2nd place with the LDs 3rd.

    To take any notice of a local poll prior to a by election campaign with an Indy on 19%, the LD by election m/c not yet in full swing and Lab high in the polls is as pointless as anything you could possibly do. I wouldn't be surprised if that poll wasn't a deliberate spoiler.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677

    Which African nations from whence the black African slave traders operated exist today as they existed then? The closest would probably be Benin, more or less the successor to Dahomey. Their wealth ‘partly based on the slave trade’ has resulted in a gdp per capita of $1390.
    Exactly. There's a difference between countries which profited from the slave trade and are now prosperous, partly as a result, and countries which are still desperately poor themselves. Opposing giving 1/140th of our income to help because someone much poorer isn't doing the same is whataboutery of the highest order.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Carnyx said:

    That's peak Three Yorkshiremen. "It's better than the smog of the 1950s, so I only get asthma when I'm 30."

    I was actually quite shaken to discover the seriousness of the pollution in London.
    Ulez1 has been a superb, excellently implemented, policy to tackle the scourge of air pollution in this great city. I live a mile outside the existing zone. Delighted that it's being extended next week.
  • Eabhal said:

    Oh come on. You've made a silly argument about life expectancy and been called out on it.
    Its not silly.

    If pollution were seriously affecting health, it would show in life expectancy figures.

    Smoking rates show in life expectancy figures. Glasgow has higher than Scotland's national average, while Orkney has below average smoking rates.

    If thousands of premature deaths a year were really happening then that should be able to be shown via data analysis and not just via claims made by organisations with a vested interest.

    Which isn't to say that cleaning the air isn't a good idea, it is, but lets be honest and there's a right and wrong way to do it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,159
    edited August 2023
    Cookie said:

    Yes, I agree.
    The problem with ULEZ is that the solution it presents doesn't match the problem it purports to solve. GM's solution is far better.
    It's baffling how Sadiq Khan goes out of his way to pick fights he doesn't need to. Andy Burnham (who I was very wary of initially) - despite, realistically, having the GM mayoralty as long as he is the Labour candidate - goes out of his way to find voter-acceptable solutions and tries to keep as much of the electorate onside as possible; Sadiq Khan appears to hold large sections of his electorate in utter contempt.
    Hence AB at the last mayoral election in every single ward in GM. Even Bramhall South and Woodford, even Halebarns, even Bowdon.
    I think this is like the GRR from Sturgeon.

    Perhaps Khan genuinely wants to improve the health and wellbeing of Londoners? Takes the long view for the future of the city?

    We need more politicians like that, even if they don't always get it completely right. Evidence-based punts.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677

    So? Voters are well organised and motivated to remove your corrupt party from power. Lab/LD will take a stonking victory whilst the other loses its deposit in one seat, and the other way round in another seat. A lot more Labour wins than LD, but you can't deny that the ABC vote is well organised and coming to get you.
    Yes- a reason why I don't actually hope for a mid-Beds by-election is that it will turn into a high-profile Lab/LD mutual trashing war which will undermine tactical voting elsewhere. It looks inevitable, though, so Labour is right to build on the poll result and their second place last time.

    Is the Independent mayor actually going to stand? If not, the question of who he endorses may be important.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,159
    edited August 2023

    Its not silly.

    If pollution were seriously affecting health, it would show in life expectancy figures.

    Smoking rates show in life expectancy figures. Glasgow has higher than Scotland's national average, while Orkney has below average smoking rates.

    If thousands of premature deaths a year were really happening then that should be able to be shown via data analysis and not just via claims made by organisations with a vested interest.

    Which isn't to say that cleaning the air isn't a good idea, it is, but lets be honest and there's a right and wrong way to do it.
    Sigh. It's crazy that you actually understand the complexities of calculating this stuff yet refuse to apply that understanding to air pollution.
  • Let us also be honest, Johnson wanted to expand ULEZ.

    So if he had done exactly what Khan had done, there would be no opposition, the Tories would be jumping up and down saying they'd solved pollution.

    This is nothing but political point scoring.

    I think you'll find many of us who are criticising the way Sadiq Khan is handling things are praising the way Andy Burnham is handling things.

    Which party does Andy Burnham represent? 🤔

    Some of us aren't party partisans and can think through issues and take stances out of principle or logic and can recognise when people do the right thing regardless of party. Burnham is doing a better job than Khan - Boris isn't even the picture or relevant.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    In Greater London, there are still areas where there's resentment at being in Greater London at all, even getting on for 60 years on. Havering natch; here's something you won't hear Andrew Rosindell raising in Parliament;

    https://havering.blog/2023/04/22/andrew-rosindells-big-idea/

    Bromley and Bexley still have patches of "Kent, actually". It was probably a factor in Uxbridge. It's an unspoken, emotional factor in the ULEZ expansion.

    Is there something similar GM? When I was the other side of the Pennines, West Yorkshire was probably more acceptable than Greater Leeds.
    Yes. I was born in an old London borough which no longer exists, and brought up in Middlesex which no longer exists. And I knew people when I was young who remembered Middlesex as a mostly rural county, as chronicled in Betjeman's great poem of that name.


    Gaily into Ruislip Gardens
    Runs the red electric train,
    With a thousand Ta's and Pardon's
    Daintily alights Elaine;
    Hurries down the concrete station
    With a frown of concentration,
    Out into the outskirt's edges
    Where a few surviving hedges
    Keep alive our lost Elysium - rural Middlesex again.



  • I think you'll find many of us who are criticising the way Sadiq Khan is handling things are praising the way Andy Burnham is handling things.

    Which party does Andy Burnham represent? 🤔

    Some of us aren't party partisans and can think through issues and take stances out of principle or logic and can recognise when people do the right thing regardless of party. Burnham is doing a better job than Khan - Boris isn't even the picture or relevant.
    Has there been evidence to suggest that Burnham's approach will actually do anything?

    Burnham is just as slippery as Johnson, so it is not a surprise to see you taken in by him. He was a Brownite under Brown, anti-Corbyn, then stole Corbyn's policies, then was anti-Corbyn again, then he was a Starmer supporter, then he was a Starmer hater, then he wanted the leadership, now he doesn't want the leadership, now he's a Starmer advocate again.

    He's a slippery chap with no principles whatsoever. It is shocking that people cannot see past it.
  • As somebody that lives in London, I commend Khan for standing up for London's place in the UK and in the world. Johnson said the right things but at every turn sold London down the river.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,537
    kjh said:

    That poll is utterly meaningless in terms of a by election. if you take a poll anywhere when Labour are doing well in the polls before a campaign starts you will find Labour ahead of the LDs even in LD targets and even held seats. To take a real life example which is far more extreme than this:

    S W Surrey:

    1997 the result was: Con 25.2k, LD 22.5k, Lab 5.3k

    In 2001 the result was Con 22.4k , LD 21.6k, Lab 4.3k

    Labour absolutely no where in either election and a very tight Con/LD marginal.

    A poll carried out prior to the campaign in 2001 in S W Surrey put Lab in 2nd place with the LDs 3rd.

    To take any notice of a local poll prior to a by election campaign with an Indy on 19%, the LD by election m/c not yet in full swing and Lab high in the polls is as pointless as anything you could possibly do. I wouldn't be surprised if that poll wasn't a deliberate spoiler.
    @hyufd and an honest answer please:

    a) If Lab doesn't campaign and gives the LDs a free run in Mid Beds who do you think will win?

    b) If the LDs don't campaign and give Lab a free run in Mid Beds who do you think will win?

    c) If both campaign hard in Mid Beds who do you think will win?

    Here is my opinion:

    a) LDs 99% certainty with a lot of confidence on my part

    b) 50/50 Lab/Con, but with no real confidence on my part regarding those probabilities

    c) I don't have any clue to be honest but if I had to assign odds I would go 60% Con, 25% LD, 15% Lab
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Carnyx said:

    That's peak Three Yorkshiremen. "It's better than the smog of the 1950s, so I only get asthma when I'm 30."

    I was actually quite shaken to discover the seriousness of the pollution in London.
    Ulez1 has been a superb, excellently implemented policy.

    Saddleworth really doesn't like being part of GM.

    It claims to be in Yorkshire, despite being the wrong side of the Pennines.

    http://whiterose.saddleworth.net/whitered.htm
    It claims to be no such thing.

    A few ageing nostalgics therein make such a claim.

    Matthew Engel wrote about it in his book Engel's England and found no-one under 50 that claimed to live in Yorkshire "only the old people say that", a local girl told him.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,690

    Saddleworth really doesn't like being part of GM.

    It claims to be in Yorkshire, despite being the wrong side of the Pennines.

    http://whiterose.saddleworth.net/whitered.htm
    Barnoldswick is an area of "Lancashire controlled Yorkshire" and wants to go back home.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    I note we are back to the PB Bumpkins telling Londoners what's good for our city.

    An almost daily phenomenon on PB.
  • In Greater London, there are still areas where there's resentment at being in Greater London at all, even getting on for 60 years on. Havering natch; here's something you won't hear Andrew Rosindell raising in Parliament;

    https://havering.blog/2023/04/22/andrew-rosindells-big-idea/

    Bromley and Bexley still have patches of "Kent, actually". It was probably a factor in Uxbridge. It's an unspoken, emotional factor in the ULEZ expansion.

    Is there something similar GM? When I was the other side of the Pennines, West Yorkshire was probably more acceptable than Greater Leeds.
    This is a very good point.

    I briefly worked in Leigh, and there people would absolutely hate being classed as a suburb of Wigan and were fiercely Leigh not Wigan. Now Leigh and Wigan are both classed as part of Greater Manchester. It always seemed though that Wigan was the problem in Leigh's eyes, not Manchester.

    The original proposal by Burnham to have a charge zone, like ULEZ, across the whole of Greater Manchester was absolutely ridiculous. The idea that inner Manchester/Salford and outer Wigan need the same policy is clearly not true. Its good that they've rowed back and come up with a completely different, and better, solution. Hopefully other cities and regions can look at the work Burnham has done on this subject and learn from it - we should look at good ideas regardless of which party they come from.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    PEAK SKS
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 50% (+4)
    CON: 25% (-4)
    LDEM: 9% (-3)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 17 - 21 Aug
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    edited August 2023
    On topic, having read the header, if the Lib Dems were hoping that Labour would scale back their efforts in Mid Beds then publishing a leaflet explicitly slagging off the prospective Labour candidate is hardly the way to go about it. Pretty poor.
    As a result, I expect Lab and Lib Dems to go for it full on, and the Tories to win.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,286
    edited August 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Labour are about 5 to 10% higher in the polls than they were at the time of the North Shropshire by election.

    The only poll in Mid
    Bedfordshire so far also has Labour ahead and the LDs 4th behind the Tories and an Independent

    "What to make of the Mid Bedfordshire opinion poll?" https://www.markpack.org.uk/171264/what-to-make-of-the-mid-bedfordshire-opinion-poll/
    Labour seem to have blown it my choosing a dud candidate.

    When the issue of the election is an absentee MP cashing in while abandoning her constituents, picking a Walthamstow councillor who's trousering £40k in allowances whilst trying to get elected as Dorries' successor was unwise.

    He's probably a nice enough bloke personally and a fairly credible candidate in a General Election but, like the Tory candidate in North Shropshire, you just can't hand your opponent a stick like that to beat you with in a by-election as it will be used absolutely relentlessly.
  • PEAK SKS
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 50% (+4)
    CON: 25% (-4)
    LDEM: 9% (-3)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 17 - 21 Aug

    I remember when you said any other leader would be 20 points ahead.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    ....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    edited August 2023

    As somebody that lives in London, I commend Khan for standing up for London's place in the UK and in the world. Johnson said the right things but at every turn sold London down the river.

    I think that avoiding a cliff edge penalising the many (hundreds of?) thousands of 10yr old diesels could have been avoided. A taper or something. Because small a percentage as it may be it will nevertheless affect many people who can least afford it in order to achieve a medium term aim.

    No one wants polluting cars on the road where an affordable, sensible solution is available. Expansion of the ULEZ is not it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Barnoldswick is an area of "Lancashire controlled Yorkshire" and wants to go back home.
    Citation required – (i.e. proper polling rather than a few flag-waving nerds)
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786

    PEAK SKS
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 50% (+4)
    CON: 25% (-4)
    LDEM: 9% (-3)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 17 - 21 Aug

    BJO please explain.
  • Ulez1 has been a superb, excellently implemented policy. It claims to be no such thing.

    A few ageing nostalgics therein make such a claim.

    Matthew Engel wrote about it in his book Engel's England and found no-one under 50 that claimed to live in Yorkshire "only the old people say that", a local girl told him.
    Unfortunately, they are electorally significant ageing nostalgics, and will remain so for a bit longer.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677

    I'm in favour of the 0.7% foreign aid budget, but am unsure that migrant hotels or disguised export subsidies are 'fiddling' - or at least if they are seen as such, what is acceptable needs defining.

    For instance, I think giving countries adjacent to hotspots money to house refugees is a brilliant way to spend money, for the migrants, for the host country, and for us. Yet I've heard some people say it's the wrong way to spend the foreign aid budget.

    So it comes down to what the foreign aid budget is for - and that seems rather muddled, particularly in the messaging.
    Yes, that's true. My mindset is still focused on the well-building/road-building/hospital-building model of foreign aid, and giving the dosh to the Home Office so they can rent some hotels for migrants in Bognor seems to me a cynical use of the term "aid". I do see a good case for using it for poor countries housing refugees, though I still think the focus needs to be on investment in capacity-building for the medium term.

    Another question is whether aid is best given to countries who use it efficiently or countries that we like. When I was in the Commons I remember discussing with Hilary Benn whether we should still be giving substantial aid to Ethiopia after a Government crackdown on dissidents. He said DfID opinion was divided - some felt we had to show that we disapproved, others said that Ethiopia was an example of a country with relatively low corruption which was using aid effectively. He decided to switch aid from Ethiopian Government agencies to NGOs helping on the ground in Ethiopia, but as I recall he wasn't really sure if that was the right decision, because the agencies were actually pretty good and starving them of funds didn't feel quite right.

    Regardless of the "correct" answer, I was quite proud of him and DfID for wrestling with it. I don't feel the "hotels in Bognor" approach passes the same smell test.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    BJO please explain.
    PEAK SKS
  • Eabhal said:

    I think this is like the GRR from Sturgeon.

    Perhaps Khan genuinely wants to improve the health and wellbeing of Londoners? Takes the long view for the future of the city?

    We need more politicians like that, even if they don't always get it completely right. Evidence-based punts.
    Absolutely, lets go for evidence-based politics.

    And take the evidence wherever it leads us. Not pay millions to try to get the evidence changed to suit our agenda when it turns out the evidence is against what is proposed: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-66570024
  • NEW: Labour and the SNP would win the same number of seats - 24 - at a general election, according to a new poll

    Survation for True North put SNP on 37% and Labour on 35%, its highest level of support w/ the company since 2014

    https://twitter.com/KieranPAndrews/status/1694275112717951143
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,295
    Sandpit said:

    They’re only about 15-20km from it now, looking at the map. Within HIMARS range for sure.

    https://liveuamap.com/en
    In the top right hand corner of liveuamap.com there is a thing that looks like a clock. Press it. It will give you a drop down list of dates. Pick a date in the past. Compare the map around Orikhiv now to the date then. They really haven't made a lot of progress in terms of freed territory.
  • TOPPING said:

    I think that avoiding a cliff edge penalising the many (hundreds of?) thousands of 10yr old diesels could have been avoided. A taper or something. Because small a percentage as it may be it will nevertheless affect many people who can least afford it in order to achieve a medium term aim.

    No one wants polluting cars on the road where an affordable, sensible solution is available. Expansion of the ULEZ is not it.
    I think there's some merit to your argument and I would support that. But that is very different from scrapping it altogether.

    Let us be honest, these people are the same people that opposed the congestion charge, opposed the minimum wage.
  • Has there been evidence to suggest that Burnham's approach will actually do anything?

    Burnham is just as slippery as Johnson, so it is not a surprise to see you taken in by him. He was a Brownite under Brown, anti-Corbyn, then stole Corbyn's policies, then was anti-Corbyn again, then he was a Starmer supporter, then he was a Starmer hater, then he wanted the leadership, now he doesn't want the leadership, now he's a Starmer advocate again.

    He's a slippery chap with no principles whatsoever. It is shocking that people cannot see past it.
    So if I say I disagree with Labour's Khan then its because I'm a petty partisan who disagrees with him as he's Labour?

    But if I say I agree with Labour's Burnham then its because Burnham is a slippery unprincipled chap?

    Maybe there's more to life than political point scoring.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266

    Ulez1 has been a superb, excellently implemented policy. It claims to be no such thing.

    A few ageing nostalgics therein make such a claim.

    Matthew Engel wrote about it in his book Engel's England and found no-one under 50 that claimed to live in Yorkshire "only the old people say that", a local girl told him.
    Yeah, us youngsters just say we live in God's Own County :wink:
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    edited August 2023

    Ulez1 has been a superb, excellently implemented policy. It claims to be no such thing.

    A few ageing nostalgics therein make such a claim.

    Matthew Engel wrote about it in his book Engel's England and found no-one under 50 that claimed to live in Yorkshire "only the old people say that", a local girl told him.
    Well, that might be true, but all the borough road signs have a White Rose on them ("In the historic county of York"), which is what I take as "it".

    I don't suppose it would be practical to separate from Oldham, but still.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    edited August 2023

    So if I say I disagree with Labour's Khan then its because I'm a petty partisan who disagrees with him as he's Labour?

    But if I say I agree with Labour's Burnham then its because Burnham is a slippery unprincipled chap?

    Maybe there's more to life than political point scoring.
    No you disagree with Khan because he's pro SKS and you agree with Andy Burnham because he's anti-SKS. Quite obvious.

    If evidence is what you are basing your suggestions on, then you would conclude that Burnham's proposals don't go nearly far enough.
  • This is a very good point.

    I briefly worked in Leigh, and there people would absolutely hate being classed as a suburb of Wigan and were fiercely Leigh not Wigan. Now Leigh and Wigan are both classed as part of Greater Manchester. It always seemed though that Wigan was the problem in Leigh's eyes, not Manchester.

    The original proposal by Burnham to have a charge zone, like ULEZ, across the whole of Greater Manchester was absolutely ridiculous. The idea that inner Manchester/Salford and outer Wigan need the same policy is clearly not true. Its good that they've rowed back and come up with a completely different, and better, solution. Hopefully other cities and regions can look at the work Burnham has done on this subject and learn from it - we should look at good ideas regardless of which party they come from.
    What, exactly, is Burnham's solution?

    Looking at this,

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/01/andy-burnham-clean-air-manchester-ulez-caz

    it seems to be demanding money from central government to fund a scrappage scheme.
  • No you disagree with Khan because he's pro SKS and you agree with Andy Burnham because he's anti-SKS. Quite obvious.
    Slight problem with that.

    I kind of like SKS lately. I like what he has to say about building more houses and I'd rather he is PM than Sunak because of that, despite not liking leftwing politics in general.

    My principles come before party politics. My principle is I want a UK where people can afford a home and private transportation of their own. Lately Sunak is against that, Khan is against that, SKS and Burnham are more in favour of that.
  • TOPPING said:

    Okay I just saw the Leon comment on the IanB2 comment. IanB2 has always been pretty anti Leon for one reason or another.

    But let's not start talking about ourselves.

    Are we sure Leon is Leon? Leon's profile has been marked private, so unsearchable, which did not used to be the case.

  • Slight problem with that.

    I kind of like SKS lately. I like what he has to say about building more houses and I'd rather he is PM than Sunak because of that, despite not liking leftwing politics in general.

    My principles come before party politics. My principle is I want a UK where people can afford a home and private transportation of their own. Lately Sunak is against that, Khan is against that, SKS and Burnham are more in favour of that.

    I didn't get the sense you liked SKS at all from your posts but that is fine, I accept that.

    I care about pollution and preventing unneeded deaths, you support proposals that will do little to reduce that, which is fine as it goes. But we have different priorities.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I think there's some merit to your argument and I would support that. But that is very different from scrapping it altogether.

    Let us be honest, these people are the same people that opposed the congestion charge, opposed the minimum wage.
    ...opposed the move to digital TV; can't use a debit card; own cars that self-destruct when cruising at 20mph; are triggered by the Tube scene in Darkest Hour...


    I mean, the list goes on...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Are we sure Leon is Leon? Leon's profile has been marked private, so unsearchable, which did not used to be the case.

    I just clicked on the "activity" button.
  • What, exactly, is Burnham's solution?

    Looking at this,

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/01/andy-burnham-clean-air-manchester-ulez-caz

    it seems to be demanding money from central government to fund a scrappage scheme.

    Burnham doesn't have a solution. He is an empty suit with no ideas, vision or policies. This has been the same for him since the early 2000s.

    The man is a shameless opportunist and liar.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,824

    Greater Manchester was tried before - the outlying towns basically having the life sucked out of them by Manchester. Then the Tories abolished it and we had a few decades of disorganised chaos.

    Perhaps the change in approach is general relief that there is once again a regional organisation which this time is trying to work with the metropolitan boroughs rather than against them?
    Interesting one this, and there's no definitive answer.

    Firstly, emotionally, much of GM IS still Lancashire/Cheshire/Yorkshire. But also GM. Some people are very much of the "Cheshire, actually" persuasion, others very much the opposite - some of this is through taste but much through ignorance of local government, history and geography and the relationships between them - a complex subject which lack of interest in is quite forgiveable. But I would say the majority are quite comfortable in overlapping identities: Altrincham can be Altrincham, Cheshire and also part of Greater Manchester. (Is this because there is no longer a Cheshire County Council not to be part of, I wonder? Probably not. Most people simply aren't that interested in that level of detail.)

    When GM was abolished in 1986, it didn't go away of course - the concept of an urban area around Manchester was still there, whether it had an elected authority or not. And of course the GM Boroughs had to refer to themselves as something - and of course there was still a GM Fire and Rescue, GM Police, etc, as well as non-state organisations such as the GM Football Association, I think (though others such as rugby and cricket had never seen a need to change their boundaries to match local government reform - and why not, because local government never matched historic counties in the first place - the county boroughs like Manchester, Liverpool, Oldham, etc existed outwith the jurisdiction of Lancashire County Council and no-one minded or said 'actually technically we're not Lancashire' - because local government <> geography.)

    Anyway, the 1974-1986 GM authority wasn't the most harmonious of beasts: as you say, there was a lot of tension between Manchester and everyone else; and not actually a great deal of lamentation in the outer boroughs at its demise. The Manchester Labour Party in those days were hard left take-on-the government types, whereas Salford's Labour Party was prepared to work with the government - that, in fact, was how Salford Quays came about, much to the chagrin of the hard left in Manchester who saw their role as to fight Thatcher rather than necessarily to improve Manchester. That lot were removed in an internal putsch the mechanisms of which I am only vaguely aware about 1987 - and since then (possibly coincidentally), the GM authorities have been pretty good at getting on with each other, co-operating rather than competing (up to a point!).
    The structure we have now has sort of grown organically. We have a mayor who sits on top and is elected, but the districts retain more control than they did in the GMC days. The structure we have represents what GM wants, rather than what any part of it wants. There's still tension (Stockport has withdrawn from the joint plan), but less than there was.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224

    I suspect Uber is in big trouble long term.

    The original business plan was to subsidise taxis to get all the business, then pivot to driverless cars to achieve profitability.

    Driverless cars not happening (yet) has stuffed that.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,824
    Cookie said:

    Interesting one this, and there's no definitive answer.

    Firstly, emotionally, much of GM IS still Lancashire/Cheshire/Yorkshire. But also GM. Some people are very much of the "Cheshire, actually" persuasion, others very much the opposite - some of this is through taste but much through ignorance of local government, history and geography and the relationships between them - a complex subject which lack of interest in is quite forgiveable. But I would say the majority are quite comfortable in overlapping identities: Altrincham can be Altrincham, Cheshire and also part of Greater Manchester. (Is this because there is no longer a Cheshire County Council not to be part of, I wonder? Probably not. Most people simply aren't that interested in that level of detail.)

    When GM was abolished in 1986, it didn't go away of course - the concept of an urban area around Manchester was still there, whether it had an elected authority or not. And of course the GM Boroughs had to refer to themselves as something - and of course there was still a GM Fire and Rescue, GM Police, etc, as well as non-state organisations such as the GM Football Association, I think (though others such as rugby and cricket had never seen a need to change their boundaries to match local government reform - and why not, because local government never matched historic counties in the first place - the county boroughs like Manchester, Liverpool, Oldham, etc existed outwith the jurisdiction of Lancashire County Council and no-one minded or said 'actually technically we're not Lancashire' - because local government <> geography.)

    Anyway, the 1974-1986 GM authority wasn't the most harmonious of beasts: as you say, there was a lot of tension between Manchester and everyone else; and not actually a great deal of lamentation in the outer boroughs at its demise. The Manchester Labour Party in those days were hard left take-on-the government types, whereas Salford's Labour Party was prepared to work with the government - that, in fact, was how Salford Quays came about, much to the chagrin of the hard left in Manchester who saw their role as to fight Thatcher rather than necessarily to improve Manchester. That lot were removed in an internal putsch the mechanisms of which I am only vaguely aware about 1987 - and since then (possibly coincidentally), the GM authorities have been pretty good at getting on with each other, co-operating rather than competing (up to a point!).
    The structure we have now has sort of grown organically. We have a mayor who sits on top and is elected, but the districts retain more control than they did in the GMC days. The structure we have represents what GM wants, rather than what any part of it wants. There's still tension (Stockport has withdrawn from the joint plan), but less than there was.
    [cont]
    Anyway, apologies for long rambling reply. It's an interesting question and the answer is definitely feelings-based, and I'm sure others in GM would have different perspectives.

    As a final point, I think there was a remarkably similar story in Tyne and Wear.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,159
    edited August 2023

    ...opposed the move to digital TV; can't use a debit card; own cars that self-destruct when cruising at 20mph; are triggered by the Tube scene in Darkest Hour...


    I mean, the list goes on...
    I think the best comparison is the smoking ban. I remember the fuss over that.
  • Labour leads by 25% in the Red Wall.

    Red Wall VI (6 August):

    Labour 53% (+4)
    Conservative 28% (–)
    Reform UK 7% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 6% (-2)
    Green 4% (–)
    Plaid Cymru 1% (-1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 6 August

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1694016579598745708

    The Tories have seemingly given up on the Red Wall. I suspect these voters will never make that mistake again so the Tories will have to find a new voting coalition.

    Such a shame they've pissed off the people that would vote for them in future.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    Piers Morgan is left wing? News to me.
    Clarkson punched someone working on Top Gear for bringing him cold food, IIRC, it's why he was sacked from the programme.
    If he's left wing how come so much of what he says pisses me off?
  • What, exactly, is Burnham's solution?

    Looking at this,

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/aug/01/andy-burnham-clean-air-manchester-ulez-caz

    it seems to be demanding money from central government to fund a scrappage scheme.
    Which if you want a progressive rather than regressive solution, or a solution which actually works, is surely a better alternative?

    Why is taxing poor people who can't afford to replace their vehicles better than having a scrappage scheme to assist them to actually replace vehicles?

    And if a scrappage scheme gets more polluting cars off the road, faster, then isn't it a good idea?

    I thought Labour was supposed to be the party of progressive politics. Telling rich people who can afford clean vehicles they can drive tax free while poor people need to pay the taxes, how is that progressive?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224

    I note we are back to the PB Bumpkins telling Londoners what's good for our city.

    An almost daily phenomenon on PB.

    Absolutely - my right to drive with no congestion charge, road tax or parking costs is to be defended at all costs.
  • TOPPING said:

    I just clicked on the "activity" button.
    I'm not sure I've seen an activity button. Nonetheless, I am wary of sudden, unexplained changes, especially when other PBers are wondering if their accounts have been compromised.
  • I didn't get the sense you liked SKS at all from your posts but that is fine, I accept that.

    I care about pollution and preventing unneeded deaths, you support proposals that will do little to reduce that, which is fine as it goes. But we have different priorities.
    I support proposals that will do more to reduce pollution, not less.

    I also want pollution tackled, I just have different ideas on how to do so.

    I believe getting clean technologies to replace dirty technologies is the way to do so.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    BJO please explain.
    I think it's pretty easy to explain without having to be a fan of SKS - we live in a de facto two party politick. When the support for the governing party collapses (because it tanks the economy, or has no policies, or is just being cruel in lieu of any policies) the main beneficiary is the second of those two parties. This didn't happen when Corbyn was LOTO because a) Brexit, b) the media outcry at the existence of Corbyn and c) the Tories were still managing the economy for those with mortgages or pensions. Now SKS (who has rolled back every single interesting or new policy proposal he has put forward) is reaping the benefit by standing still and hoping the collapse continues.

    It was interesting the other day when a poll of the hypothetical "what if Corbyn was still leader" had Labour ahead by a few points. Even the idea of Corbyn without the shine on his policies (essentially the ephemeral memory of press created Corbyn) was winning enough seats to be the largest party if not a governing amount (I would suggest that in this economy Corbyn's policies would actually be a lot more popular, no matter what the press said, because since the onset of covid many of his policy solutions have been shown to be correct / have become actual government policy).
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    edited August 2023
    Personally I would ban all cars except delivery vehicles (which should be electric anyhow) from Central London, I would do this at first by sticking a massive fee to enter Central London onto motorists and increase it every year.
  • Which if you want a progressive rather than regressive solution, or a solution which actually works, is surely a better alternative?

    Why is taxing poor people who can't afford to replace their vehicles better than having a scrappage scheme to assist them to actually replace vehicles?

    And if a scrappage scheme gets more polluting cars off the road, faster, then isn't it a good idea?

    I thought Labour was supposed to be the party of progressive politics. Telling rich people who can afford clean vehicles they can drive tax free while poor people need to pay the taxes, how is that progressive?
    And if the government says no, you can't have any money from us? Which is what happened in London, after all.
  • I support proposals that will do more to reduce pollution, not less.

    I also want pollution tackled, I just have different ideas on how to do so.

    I believe getting clean technologies to replace dirty technologies is the way to do so.
    But then why do you not support Khan's proposals which even the Tories supported on the grounds they would reduce pollution? Why do you support Burnham's non-solution?

    I am totally bemused at your logic.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    Personally I would ban all cars except delivery vehicles (which should be electric anyhow) from Central London, I would do this at first by sticking a massive fee to enter Central London onto motorists and increase it every year.

    I would also give an allowance for blue badges and diplomatic vehicles, but other than that I basically agree. The public transport is good enough, and disallowing cars would obviously give it more passengers and therefore more money to reinvest in even better services.
  • And if the government says no, you can't have any money from us? Which is what happened in London, after all.

    The Tories made TfL do it, so they could score points later.

    Just as with everything TfL has had to cut, they think Londoners are thick and will blame Labour for it when they hold the money.
  • OT for physicists and filmgoers:-

    The Interesting Physics of Robert Oppenheimer (not the bomb) - Sixty Symbols
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=py8k1tn8yw4
  • 148grss said:

    I would also give an allowance for blue badges and diplomatic vehicles, but other than that I basically agree. The public transport is good enough, and disallowing cars would obviously give it more passengers and therefore more money to reinvest in even better services.
    I concede to your modifications.

    There is absolutely zero reason to drive in Central London. It is slow, inefficient, terrible for the environment and terrible for air quality. Get the bus, cycle, walk or get the Tube.
  • The original business plan was to subsidise taxis to get all the business, then pivot to driverless cars to achieve profitability.

    Driverless cars not happening (yet) has stuffed that.
    I would not be surprised to see Uber go the way of MySpace.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,824
    Eabhal said:

    I think this is like the GRR from Sturgeon.

    Perhaps Khan genuinely wants to improve the health and wellbeing of Londoners? Takes the long view for the future of the city?

    We need more politicians like that, even if they don't always get it completely right. Evidence-based punts.
    I'm not sure it was an evidence-based punt, though. The evidence that it would improve health was sketchy at best.
    That's not to say there isn't room for vision.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,537
    edited August 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Given the LDs have just produced a leaflet trashing the Labour candidate in Mid Bedfordshire the local Labour party will certainly not
    concede it and nor will
    Starmer. If he is heading for No 10 with a majority he
    should be winning seats like
    Mid Bedfordshire where Labour were second at the last general election as Blair did pre 1997
    Oh come off it. Mid Beds has never been on anyone's target list before there was a sniff of a by election.

    Even in 1997 the majority was 7000. It is normally over 20,000. In the two elections before that (2010, 2005) when it did drop below 20,000 the LDs were 2nd and the majority was still huge. The Tory vote share is often around 60% and hasn't dropped below 45% unless you go back to 1950. The last time anyone else held it was 1920.

    In no way, outside of a by election is this on anyone's target list.
  • And if the government says no, you can't have any money from us? Which is what happened in London, after all.
    Then turn it around and put it on the government to implement an alternative solution, since yours has been rejected. Its upto the Chancellor to sort out taxes and spending, make him own it instead.

    The technology is here for clean vehicles, the only discussion is not whether we transition to them but how to do so. Rich people can afford clean vehicles, poor people can't. The question is how to fix the latter. I'm not convinced taxing poor people who can't afford to change for their inability to do so is the wisest of solutions.

    If providing a scrappage scheme makes it affordable for poor people to change their vehicle, which removes more pollution than a tax does, then is it not a better solution?
  • But then why do you not support Khan's proposals which even the Tories supported on the grounds they would reduce pollution? Why do you support Burnham's non-solution?

    I am totally bemused at your logic.
    Because taxing polluting vehicles for driving, which the owner can't afford to change, does not reduce pollution as more as getting those vehicles scrapped and off the road altogether does.

    Burnham's solution will remove more emissions from the air, not less.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,824

    And if the government says no, you can't have any money from us? Which is what happened in London, after all.
    *cough* Crossrail *cough*
  • In a hypothetical world in which Labour did actually win 500 seats as some of the polls say, what would happen to the Tories?
  • Cookie said:

    I'm not sure it was an evidence-based punt, though. The evidence that it would improve health was sketchy at best.
    That's not to say there isn't room for vision.

    At least Khan has some ideas. We can criticise the ideas but at least he has some.

    Unlike say, Sunak.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,942

    This is a very good point.

    I briefly worked in Leigh, and there people would absolutely hate being classed as a suburb of Wigan and were fiercely Leigh not Wigan. Now Leigh and Wigan are both classed as part of Greater Manchester. It always seemed though that Wigan was the problem in Leigh's eyes, not Manchester.

    The original proposal by Burnham to have a charge zone, like ULEZ, across the whole of Greater Manchester was absolutely ridiculous. The idea that inner Manchester/Salford and outer Wigan need the same policy is clearly not true. Its good that they've rowed back and come up with a completely different, and better, solution. Hopefully other cities and regions can look at the work Burnham has done on this subject and learn from it - we should look at good ideas regardless of which party they come from.
    Wigan in GM is probably the fundamental issue. Original proposals didn't have it there. It's no more Manchester than Warrington is.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,690

    PEAK SKS
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 50% (+4)
    CON: 25% (-4)
    LDEM: 9% (-3)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 17 - 21 Aug

    As the Beach Boys didn't quite sing:

    "Two Labs for every Con"
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Personally I would ban all cars except delivery vehicles (which should be electric anyhow) from Central London, I would do this at first by sticking a massive fee to enter Central London onto motorists and increase it every year.

    A good starting point would be to pedestrian Oxford Street and environs, save for delivery vehicles. Would transform the area.
  • Because taxing polluting vehicles for driving, which the owner can't afford to change, does not reduce pollution as more as getting those vehicles scrapped and off the road altogether does.

    Burnham's solution will remove more emissions from the air, not less.
    That's exactly what they said about the congestion charge
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Cookie said:

    *cough* Crossrail *cough*
    *coughchokeNPRsplutterHS2chokecough*
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,690

    Citation required – (i.e. proper polling rather than a few flag-waving nerds)
    The Yorkshire flag waves proudly in the middle of the village from a bloody big flagpole. The local shops sell Yorkshire memorabilia. Not a hint of the red rose to be found.

  • A good starting point would be to pedestrian Oxford Street and environs, save for delivery vehicles. Would transform the area.
    Sadiq Khan has so little power he couldn't even do that, despite all the locals and Londoners supporting it.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    In a hypothetical world in which Labour did actually win 500 seats as some of the polls say, what would happen to the Tories?

    They would either be replaced by or adapt into more of an outwardly socially right wing party - like a Christian Conservative party. I think they will lose the ability to talk to "moderates" (who will flock to LDs or Labour) and become very insular.

    I also think 500 seats could see a split in the Labour party - SKS will feel bulletproof and be able to kick out any holdovers from the Corbyn era without imperilling his majority (thinking McDonnell or Abbott). I think they will either sit as independents with Corbyn (who I think would retain his seat as an Independent) or set up a "New Left" party. This group would likely be no bigger than 20 MPs, but still, I think it is possible. I also wonder where the LDs will go - I'm still constantly surprised Ed Davey hasn't stepped aside for Daisy Cooper who is just a much more telegenic and charismatic politician who in a GE would contrast well with SKS and Sunak in a way Davey just... won't.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,751
    edited August 2023
    .
    TOPPING said:

    Absolutely.
    This is a very good* article looking at the overall position of the conflict, and the various prospects for what might happen next.

    Ukraine's offensive: is it failing?
    And are the Pentagon's criticism's of its strategy fair?
    https://samf.substack.com/p/ukraines-offensive-is-it-failing?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

    *Which means I agree with many of the points made.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,919
    edited August 2023

    PEAK SKS
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 50% (+4)
    CON: 25% (-4)
    LDEM: 9% (-3)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 17 - 21 Aug

    Just when you've published a header entitled "The Lab Lead is Getting Narrower", and opined "One thing is looking pretty clear and that the days of Labour leads of 20% plus are no longer there…" - this happens!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    The Yorkshire flag waves proudly in the middle of the village from a bloody big flagpole. The local shops sell Yorkshire memorabilia. Not a hint of the red rose to be found.

    Nerdish flag-waving.

    Polling required.

    Matthew Engel wants to revert to the old boundaries. Yet even he couldn't find anyone under 50 who said they lived in Yorkshire.

    Saddleworth has been Greater Manchester since 1974.
  • kjh said:

    Oh come off it. Mid Beds has never been on anyone's target list before there was a sniff of a by election.

    Even in 1997 the majority was 7000. It is normally over 20,000. In the two elections before that (2010, 2005) when it did drop below 20,000 the LDs were 2nd and the majority was still huge. The Tory vote share is often around 60% and hasn't dropped below 45% unless you go back to 1950 and they have never lost the seat.

    In no way, outside of a by election is this on anyone's target list.
    In fairness, I think HYUFD's point is not that this would be a General Election target but that this IS a by-election and, pre-1997, Blair would've won and not given the Lib Dems a sniff starting from second (Lib Dems did win a couple of by-elections during Blair's period as LOTO, but starting from second place and with Labour giving them a run for their money).

    There is some truth in that, albeit as it happened none of Labour's by-election gains 1994-7 came in such deep blue territory as the three that arose were in seats that were likely to be on Labour's target list for a General Election.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,690
    On TV right now: That fecker Modi with his tongue up Putin's arse.
  • Expanding ULEZ was a difficult decision - but it's the right one to save lives.

    I’ve continued to listen to Londoners' concerns - and every single Londoner with a non ULEZ compliant vehicle is now eligible for financial support.

    https://twitter.com/SadiqKhan/status/1694056011043102939
  • That's exactly what they said about the congestion charge
    No its not.

    With the congestion charge where was an alternative plan to get vehicles off the road altogether?

    I never said that taxing polluting vehicles will not reduce pollution, you cut the rest of the sentence out. I said it will not cut pollution "as [much] as getting those vehicles scrapped and off the road altogether" does. The full sentence needs to read, not a fragment of it.

    Taxing polluting vehicles has been great for providing a market-led incentive to get rich people to change their vehicles, its worked. But the problem is that poor people can't afford to do so. Taxing poor people more won't make it any easier for them to afford to do so, but providing scrappage incentives will. Its a progressive and science-led scheme, rather than a punitive and regressive one.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,665
    edited August 2023

    Absolutely - my right to drive with no congestion charge, road tax or parking costs is to be defended at all costs.
    Morning all.

    There is no Right to Drive; that's why you have to have a license to do it !
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    edited August 2023

    On TV right now: That fecker Modi with his tongue up Putin's arse.

    That's a disgrace; on daytime TV before the watershed.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266

    Expanding ULEZ was a difficult decision - but it's the right one to save lives.

    I’ve continued to listen to Londoners' concerns - and every single Londoner with a non ULEZ compliant vehicle is now eligible for financial support.

    https://twitter.com/SadiqKhan/status/1694056011043102939

    The outstanding concern is the non-Londoners with a frequent need to drive into the ULEZ for work etc. That's outside Khan's remit, but there should be support for them, too (subject to some kind of testing of need to drive into London etc)
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,286
    edited August 2023
    MattW said:

    Morning all.

    There is no Right to Drive; that's why you have to have a license to do it !
    Most places in the USA require a licence to buy and own a gun, but that's viewed even by a very conservative Supreme Court as consistent with the right to bear arms under the Constitution.

    I think your mistake is to view all rights as absolute by definition. Most are qualified and enable something like a licensing regime.

    Having said that, I'm not sure the "right to drive" is very meaningful. There are very substantial restrictions on where, what and how you can drive that nobody seriously suggests removing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    PEAK SKS
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 50% (+4)
    CON: 25% (-4)
    LDEM: 9% (-3)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 17 - 21 Aug

    Morning BJO. I thought of you when I saw this article claiming that SKS is a radical leftie.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/22/labour-leftwing-credentials-byelection-snp-rutherglen-hamilton-west-keir-starmer

    Very much in the tradition of Grauniad dropping into the Edinburgh Fringe for a few days every August so knows all about Scotland.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,387

    Morgan's left-wing 'persuasion'? He spends every day telling us how woke and trans people are destroying the world. He was anti gay rights, he was pro the Iraq war.

    There is nothing left wing about him, centrist maybe at a stretch.

    IMO he is fairly centre-left, and sees himself as such. e.g.:
    https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/piers-morgan-i-should-be-the-darling-of-the-left-319247/

    And I'm far from convinced that woke and anti-woke views split left or right. It's perfectly possible to be a trade unionist who is anti-woke, as an example, because woke/anti-woke is more about social views over economic and political views.

    Or in my case, someone who is probably centre-right, yet is (hopefully) fairly woke.
  • Carnyx said:

    *coughchokeNPRsplutterHS2chokecough*
    Lots of coughing going on. Is there an air quality problem this morning?

    Besides, most of the money for Crossrail (70% or so) came from London, a lot by nabbing vale from businesses who would benefit from the line.
  • Selebian said:

    The outstanding concern is the non-Londoners with a frequent need to drive into the ULEZ for work etc. That's outside Khan's remit, but there should be support for them, too (subject to some kind of testing of need to drive into London etc)
    Perhaps the Tories should help with that instead of just calling to scrap the whole thing?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948

    In a hypothetical world in which Labour did actually win 500 seats as some of the polls say, what would happen to the Tories?

    I worry about this. It's been playing on my mind.

    Let's enter the world of evolution by natural selection. More precisely, the evolution of antibiotic resistant strains of bacteria and viruses, or drug resistant tumours.

    Remove a hundred or so Tory MPs and what remains will still have some sort of ecological diversity. There will be the odd Lee Anderson or Suella type, a few dull but broadly thatcherite Sunaks, a handful of centrists and secret remainers and a few technocratic Tories nobody's heard of. What then grows back will be genetically similar to previous Tory parliamentary parties, and hopefully a little chastened with the populist right faction less powerful.

    Get down to 50 though and the surviving MPs are likely to represent very Brexity, very right wing seats and be disproportionately of the Lee Anderson type (though not Lee himself, he would lose his seat). Either by natural disposition or through self-interest. What would then grow back might have quite dangerously mutant political DNA.

    That might lock them out of power for a couple of terms, but it could mean that when things eventually swing back their way we would be faced with something much closer to the Trump GOP than we have even today.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,690
    Cookie said:

    [cont]
    Anyway, apologies for long rambling reply. It's an interesting question and the answer is definitely feelings-based, and I'm sure others in GM would have different perspectives.

    As a final point, I think there was a remarkably similar story in Tyne and Wear.
    Oh yes, the Mackems really enjoyed being under the thumb of Geordies.

    The biggest pisser for them was the "Tyne and Wear Metro", which for decades went nowhere near Wearside.

    This has carried on in a wider context, which was how they ended up with a "North of Tyne" mayor, when pre-1974 County Durham wanted nowt to do with it, fearing another power grab from The Toon.

    And from my perspective, Gateshead is in County Durham. Just as it was when I was born there. That's my county. coz that's where I'm from. No Whitehall bureaucrat will tell me any different.

    And of course, Middlesbrough will forever be a Small Town in Yorkshire.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,224

    Personally I would ban all cars except delivery vehicles (which should be electric anyhow) from Central London, I would do this at first by sticking a massive fee to enter Central London onto motorists and increase it every year.

    When the congestion charge was introduced, I had a conversation with an A list celeb, who wanted it to be £100 a day. So he could drive his cars whenever he wanted. Get the poor off the roads.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,948
    edited August 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Greetings from the Pravda Brewery Beer Theatre, Market Sq, Lviv - where there’s 56 beers on tap!

    What a lovely old city, cobbled streets, trams, dozens of street bars. We went to the national museum, but sadly most of the old stuff there had been removed for safety, there was an old Jesuit church basement which was quite funky, and there’s an Apple Museum we’re going to see this afternoon. That’s a museum of old computers, not old apples!

    Cheers!


    Lviv looks lovely. I must go there once this is all over. My only Ukraine experience is Kyiv, which has its attractions but feels quite Soviet still, or at least did when I was there.

    How was the train journey?
This discussion has been closed.