An error of judgment – politicalbetting.com

Foxy said:

ohnotnow said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Alanbrooke said:

What a miserable git.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/26/sir-keir-starmer-labour-children-eat-meat-fish-until-age-10/

We had neighbours who were quite strict vegetarians and brought their children up that way as well. For some reason the school decided they were under-nourished and contacted Social Services who paid them a visit and told them that the kids needed to be offered meat and fish as well.

Pesky interfering state telling people how to feed their kids????

One of the most tiresome people I know is a strict vegan. She eats vegan. Her husband eats vegan. Her daughter eats vegan. Even the bloody dog eats vegan.

And trust me, if you're not careful, you will end up on the receiving end of a lecture on the evils of eating any kind of animal product.

But their daughter is not malnourished. She's a 13 year old, five foot eleven girl, who is super fit, and plays basketball at an extremely high level.

It is perfectly possible, so long as you are careful to make sure you eat foods fortified with Vitamin B12, to have a very healthy vegan diet.

It really isn't. Lots of vegans are chronically malnourished and there is plenty of evidence and research to support this fact.

Guess what? Humans need a balanced diet and thrive on such.

I wouldn't disagree for a second that lots of vegans are malnorished.

But that is not my contention. I am saying that it is perfectly *possible* to eat a healthy diet as vegan.

It isn't unusual for anorectics to go vegan as a way to lose weight, and refuse family meals etc. Sometimes it is the malnutrition that causes veganism rather than vice-versa.

There are ample numbers of healthy well nourished vegans, though few obese ones. That level of weight usually requires eating loads of saturated fat from meat or dairy.

Pseudoscientific bullshit. Find any empirical evidence that saturated fat is 'fattier' than unsaturated, and how the alleged different pathway results in greater weight gain from eating the former as opposed to the latter.

As for the lack of obese vegans, who is going to abandon their life to the pleasures of food and then choose veganism as their preferred diet?

I was vegan for many years and I'm a fat f**k. 100% of science right there.

I am not saying it is impossible to be a fat vegan, but it is rare.

Which is the antonym of the earlier argument.

It's possible to be a nutritious vegan, just about, but it's bloody hard work. Because there ain't much nutrition in it.

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Slim pickings there HYUFD. Wyre Forest, a 'maybe' on a good day perhaps.

Indeed but Wyre Forest was a rare Tory council gain in May
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E07000239

ohnotnow said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

...

state_go_away said:

Say what you like about Nigel Farage but he his bloody effective when he puts his mind to it

If Victor Meldrew hadn't already been created some aspiring writer could have used Farage as a model for their miserable old curmudgeonly fictional character.

It seems to me that Coutts made 3 massive mistakes:

1) They correctly identified that Farage wouldn't take the account closure lying down and still did it anyway. There was nothing to gain for the bank by closing his account.
2) Having decided to close the account they put their reasons down IN WRITING (clearly no-one understood about SARs). If they had discussed in a meeting but put the written reason down as lack of funds, Farage wouldn't have had a case.
3) The CEO then told a lie that was easily exposed by the written materials. Not only that but she made the BBC look like dupes.

Apart from that though - you'd trust them with your millions?

Nope but for reasons I wouldn’t write down anywhere. Happy to explain if I met in person but otherwise….

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Alanbrooke said:

What a miserable git.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/26/sir-keir-starmer-labour-children-eat-meat-fish-until-age-10/

That's child abuse. Kids need meat and fish when they're growing up.

Maybe Sir Kid Starver is apt.

I am reminded of Lord Blake's acid comment on Sir Stafford Cripps:

'He was not only a vegetarian and teetotaller, he looked like one too.'

But whatever it is, it isn't child abuse, and I'm surprised as a parent yourself you would say that.

It certainly is - children need proper nutrition to grow and develop properly.

[Narrator: Sunak is a vegetarian and 5ft 6 inches tall]

Lol.

He's teetotal and doesn't eat beef as a Hindu. Not sure that means he's always vegetarian.

He has said he is a vegetarian in a number of interviews. Many Hindus are.

His SPAD on environmental issues is a vegan.

Who cares about the SPAD?

You should care about the sort of people Sunak chooses to advise him. They are useful indications of his own leanings.

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

UK projected to be 10th largest economy by 2075 just behind Germany at 9th. China biggest, US second, India 3rd, Indonesia 4th and Nigeria 5th.

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1684144351239196672?s=20

If the demographic projections are right, it won't be China. The One Child policy left them with not enough adults to be parents and they're looking at a population cliff.

One of the reasons why I'm so upset by Russia is because they are curing their demography problem by literally stealing children. I forget how many they've taken from Ukraine but I doubt it's just one or two.

Nigeria 5th. Lol

Lots of dark humour Sinead O'Connor memes already doing the rounds on WhatsApp already.

Not going to share them as it's a bit soon.

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Slim pickings there HYUFD. Wyre Forest, a 'maybe' on a good day perhaps.

I would have thought that Goole and Pocklington could be winnable for Labour.

Leon said:

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

UK projected to be 10th largest economy by 2075 just behind Germany at 9th. China biggest, US second, India 3rd, Indonesia 4th and Nigeria 5th.

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1684144351239196672?s=20

If the demographic projections are right, it won't be China. The One Child policy left them with not enough adults to be parents and they're looking at a population cliff.

One of the reasons why I'm so upset by Russia is because they are curing their demography problem by literally stealing children. I forget how many they've taken from Ukraine but I doubt it's just one or two.

Nigeria 5th. Lol

The same organisations project that Nigeria will be uninhabitable so something doesn’t add up.

Jim_Miller said:

Vanilla problem? This morning, when I first saw this post, the header said there was 1 comment. It is still saying there is just 1, when there are now hundreds.

(I am using the Chrome browser, if that matters. I got the same result, just now, with Microsoft Edge.)

Same here with Safari.

Fairliered said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Slim pickings there HYUFD. Wyre Forest, a 'maybe' on a good day perhaps.

I would have thought that Goole and Pocklington could be winnable for Labour.

Isn't Goole semi rural Lincolnshire? Brexit Central.

Benpointer said:

Jim_Miller said:

Vanilla problem? This morning, when I first saw this post, the header said there was 1 comment. It is still saying there is just 1, when there are now hundreds.

(I am using the Chrome browser, if that matters. I got the same result, just now, with Microsoft Edge.)

Same here with Safari.

Maybe something connected with the closed duplicate thread, which has 1 comment? Viewing on vanilla.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Beibheirli_C said:

rcs1000 said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Alanbrooke said:

What a miserable git.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/26/sir-keir-starmer-labour-children-eat-meat-fish-until-age-10/

We had neighbours who were quite strict vegetarians and brought their children up that way as well. For some reason the school decided they were under-nourished and contacted Social Services who paid them a visit and told them that the kids needed to be offered meat and fish as well.

Pesky interfering state telling people how to feed their kids????

One of the most tiresome people I know is a strict vegan. She eats vegan. Her husband eats vegan. Her daughter eats vegan. Even the bloody dog eats vegan.

And trust me, if you're not careful, you will end up on the receiving end of a lecture on the evils of eating any kind of animal product.

But their daughter is not malnourished. She's a 13 year old, five foot eleven girl, who is super fit, and plays basketball at an extremely high level.

It is perfectly possible, so long as you are careful to make sure you eat foods fortified with Vitamin B12, to have a very healthy vegan diet.

I have noticed that most vegans will tell you they are vegan in about the first 5 minutes of conversation and having known several, I have yet to see any of them sit down at the table look at their dinner plate and rub their hands together in anticipation of a delicious repast. They look at their plate more like a difficult task they need to get through.

I could be a veggie, but never a vegan.

I recently flourished a ham biscuit at a vegetarian friend, and asked him IF that constituted a hate crime.

He replied, hell yes! But that he would NOT press charges IF yours truly refrained from throwing it at him.

Correction - I brandished that biscuit, thus a possible criminal violation IF a ham biscuit is indeed a weapon.

Very confusing on a British forum - by 'biscuit', you mean 'scone' yes? Never had a ham one. Had a cheese one.

In USA, a scone is a (usually) triangular SWEET pastry. Whereas (our) biscuits are (generally) square or round, usually made from wheat.

American biscuits typically plain that is zero filling UNTIL the eater adds butter, jam and/or honey.

OR alternatively, a slice of meat, most typically ham. Thus ham biscuit!

However, the biscuit I brandished, actually had bits of ham baked into it, so a variation on the theme.

Yes. Your biscuit then is almost exactly a scone (typically our scones are sweetened, but you'd always at least have butter, usually jam (your jelly) and clotted cream). We have savoury versions made with cheese. You'd usually just butter these. They're not typically sandwiched with ham or other fillings as possibly a bit too crumbly? Also too crumbly to cause much pain when thrown. If they even reach the victim whole.

A biscuit here is a dry, compacted, crumbly affair. An American example of what we term a biscuit would be an Oero. We are a nation of biscuit lovers because they're ideal to dunk in tea.

Your biscuit is our cookie. As in Cookie Monster.

(With due apology to Cookie.)

Yes, they're similar but the American cookie is very special - we know them as large and a bit gooey in the middle, usually with chocolate chips. They'd be more of a treat for us, not something you'd have daily (or even a few times a day) with a cup of tea like a biscuit.

Biscuits are usually smaller and a little more basic. This is the archetypal British biscuit: https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/feb/24/chocolate-digestives-best-worst-taste-test-mcvities-supermarket-brands

Mexicanpete said:

Fairliered said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Slim pickings there HYUFD. Wyre Forest, a 'maybe' on a good day perhaps.

I would have thought that Goole and Pocklington could be winnable for Labour.

Isn't Goole semi rural Lincolnshire? Brexit Central.

Yorkshire but yes, Brexity - although is Brexit swinging many votes either way now?

What do we think of this? A few different sources.

"The main thrust of Ukraine’s nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday, with thousands of reinforcements pouring into the grinding battle" nytimes.com/live/2023/07/2…

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1684296912533331969?s=46

Casino_Royale said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

viewcode said:

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Alanbrooke said:

What a miserable git.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/26/sir-keir-starmer-labour-children-eat-meat-fish-until-age-10/

That's child abuse. Kids need meat and fish when they're growing up.

Maybe Sir Kid Starver is apt.

I am reminded of Lord Blake's acid comment on Sir Stafford Cripps:

'He was not only a vegetarian and teetotaller, he looked like one too.'

But whatever it is, it isn't child abuse, and I'm surprised as a parent yourself you would say that.

It certainly is - children need proper nutrition to grow and develop properly.

[Narrator: Sunak is a vegetarian and 5ft 6 inches tall]

Lol.

He's teetotal and doesn't eat beef as a Hindu. Not sure that means he's always vegetarian.

He has said he is a vegetarian in a number of interviews. Many Hindus are.

His SPAD on environmental issues is a vegan.

Who cares about the SPAD?

You should care about the sort of people Sunak chooses to advise him. They are useful indications of his own leanings.

I'm not sure Sunak has a secret vegan agenda, and indeed he's just signalled he's going to soften the targets on the environment a fair bit.

I don't think it'll happen, but I'm here for Sunak going all popular and defending our national interest against the eco-zealots. I will give him props for doing it, but as I've mentioned, he will have a credibility issue selling a complete policy u-turn.

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Poole is an interesting one.

Never been anything but Tory or Liberal/Whig, and especially blue recently - BUT local council elections were for strong for local LDs, they've been recruiting paid positions recently.

Interesting that Labour have come second in last two GEs, and very unlikely to happen outside of a total collapse, but far more chance of a Liberal upset than Labour one IMO.

williamglenn said:

Mitch McConnell seems to be having health problems judging by this appearance.

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1684262402664038405

Is he a vegan?

Fairliered said:

Mexicanpete said:

Fairliered said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Slim pickings there HYUFD. Wyre Forest, a 'maybe' on a good day perhaps.

I would have thought that Goole and Pocklington could be winnable for Labour.

Isn't Goole semi rural Lincolnshire? Brexit Central.

The seat is partly David Davis’ Howden seat (East Riding of Yorkshire). Goole is industrial red wall. Only a small portion of the seat is Lincolnshire.

Goole was the only part of the West Riding included in the 1974 county of Humberside. When Humberside was abolished and divided between four unitary authorities in the 90s, nobody wanted it: North Linconshire pointed out that it was not in Lincolnshire, and East Riding of Yorkshire that it was not in the East Riding. There were half hearted attempts to shunt it into Doncaster or Selby, but to no avail. Eventually East Riding lost the argument and accepted it, but grudgingly.

Edit: With apologies to the places concerned, the least attractive place names in the country are clustered around the Humber estuary. Goole. Brigg. Hull. Hedon. Grimsby. Cleethorpes. Immingham.

Some of these places are quite nice, but their names are not. The only moderately sized towns I can think of which have names as unattractive are Workington, Worksop and Huddersfield.

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Poole is an interesting one.

Never been anything but Tory or Liberal/Whig, and especially blue recently - BUT local council elections were for strong for local LDs, they've been recruiting paid positions recently.

Interesting that Labour have come second in last two GEs, and very unlikely to happen outside of a total collapse, but far more chance of a Liberal upset than Labour one IMO.

I suspect in most of the Tory south west the LDs will be the focus for anti-Tory voting.

Yep, and the activists I talk too aren't very keen on Rishi, so IMO they're less likely to help than under Johnson, May or Cameron.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

UK projected to be 10th largest economy by 2075 just behind Germany at 9th. China biggest, US second, India 3rd, Indonesia 4th and Nigeria 5th.

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1684144351239196672?s=20

I'll have just had my "two thirds of the way to 150" party then.

Followers on Twitter?

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Poole is an interesting one.

Never been anything but Tory or Liberal/Whig, and especially blue recently - BUT local council elections were for strong for local LDs, they've been recruiting paid positions recently.

Interesting that Labour have come second in last two GEs, and very unlikely to happen outside of a total collapse, but far more chance of a Liberal upset than Labour one IMO.

I suspect in most of the Tory south west the LDs will be the focus for anti-Tory voting.

Yep, and the activists I talk too aren't very keen on Rishi, so IMO they're less likely to help than under Johnson, May or Cameron.

Rishi is more popular in London than the South West though, both with Tory activists and voters, see Uxbridge compared to Somerton and Frome. Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there and Boris was in pro Brexit areas of the SW.

I suspect Rishi even beat Truss with London Tory members last summer

"Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there" Hahaha!

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Scottish seats selection presumably sown up tighter than a duck’s a**e.

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Poole is an interesting one.

Never been anything but Tory or Liberal/Whig, and especially blue recently - BUT local council elections were for strong for local LDs, they've been recruiting paid positions recently.

Interesting that Labour have come second in last two GEs, and very unlikely to happen outside of a total collapse, but far more chance of a Liberal upset than Labour one IMO.

I suspect in most of the Tory south west the LDs will be the focus for anti-Tory voting.

Yep, and the activists I talk too aren't very keen on Rishi, so IMO they're less likely to help than under Johnson, May or Cameron.

Rishi is more popular in London than the South West though, both with Tory activists and voters, see Uxbridge compared to Somerton and Frome. Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there and Boris was in pro Brexit areas of the SW.

I suspect Rishi even beat Truss with London Tory members last summer

Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there Hahaha!

Well in 2005 2/3 of Cornish seats were yellow, 1 Labour and 1 Tory. By 2010 half were blue and by 2015 all were blue

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Anything stand out as interesting on the list, in a "Hey Ed Davey, you have this seat" way? It's not quite as simple as "mega safe Conservative seats"; there's nothing from even the outermost edges of London there (Romford, say, or Hornchurch & Upminster). Wonder what the best bet for a shock Labour win is there? I think I'd go for Bognor Regis & Littlehampton, as the Brighton effect spreads along the Sussex coast.

Yes the list is a curious mix. None in Leics for example, despite large Tory majorities in several seats, so unlikely to be winnable in anything less than oblivion for Sunak.

It looks like an open indication that the LDs should target these seats.

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Poole is an interesting one.

Never been anything but Tory or Liberal/Whig, and especially blue recently - BUT local council elections were for strong for local LDs, they've been recruiting paid positions recently.

Interesting that Labour have come second in last two GEs, and very unlikely to happen outside of a total collapse, but far more chance of a Liberal upset than Labour one IMO.

I suspect in most of the Tory south west the LDs will be the focus for anti-Tory voting.

Yep, and the activists I talk too aren't very keen on Rishi, so IMO they're less likely to help than under Johnson, May or Cameron.

Rishi is more popular in London than the South West though, both with Tory activists and voters, see Uxbridge compared to Somerton and Frome. Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there and Boris was in pro Brexit areas of the SW.

I suspect Rishi even beat Truss with London Tory members last summer

Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there Hahaha!

Well in 2005 2/3 of Cornish seats were yellow, by 2010 half were blue and by 2015 all were blue

But not because Cameron holidayed in Cornwall.

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Poole is an interesting one.

Never been anything but Tory or Liberal/Whig, and especially blue recently - BUT local council elections were for strong for local LDs, they've been recruiting paid positions recently.

Interesting that Labour have come second in last two GEs, and very unlikely to happen outside of a total collapse, but far more chance of a Liberal upset than Labour one IMO.

I suspect in most of the Tory south west the LDs will be the focus for anti-Tory voting.

Yep, and the activists I talk too aren't very keen on Rishi, so IMO they're less likely to help than under Johnson, May or Cameron.

Rishi is more popular in London than the South West though, both with Tory activists and voters, see Uxbridge compared to Somerton and Frome. Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there and Boris was in pro Brexit areas of the SW.

I suspect Rishi even beat Truss with London Tory members last summer

Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there Hahaha!

Well in 2005 all Cornish seats were yellow, by 2010 half were blue and by 2015 all were blue

And in 2024 lots of them are turning yellow again!

I would not be so sure, indeed post Brexit the LDs may gain more Tory seats in Surrey or Oxfordshire than Cornwall

Kemi Badenoch has taken plenty of action -- in the form of speech of her own. And again shows herself as as much a climate change denier as Farage.
Badenoch attacked the Labour party's decision not further to expand exploitation and extraction from the North Sea, saying that their decision was outrageous and disgraceful.”

Pagan2 said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Poole is an interesting one.

Never been anything but Tory or Liberal/Whig, and especially blue recently - BUT local council elections were for strong for local LDs, they've been recruiting paid positions recently.

Interesting that Labour have come second in last two GEs, and very unlikely to happen outside of a total collapse, but far more chance of a Liberal upset than Labour one IMO.

I suspect in most of the Tory south west the LDs will be the focus for anti-Tory voting.

Yep, and the activists I talk too aren't very keen on Rishi, so IMO they're less likely to help than under Johnson, May or Cameron.

Rishi is more popular in London than the South West though, both with Tory activists and voters, see Uxbridge compared to Somerton and Frome. Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there and Boris was in pro Brexit areas of the SW.

I suspect Rishi even beat Truss with London Tory members last summer

"Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there" Hahaha!

Emmetts are never popular

Exactly.

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Poole is an interesting one.

Never been anything but Tory or Liberal/Whig, and especially blue recently - BUT local council elections were for strong for local LDs, they've been recruiting paid positions recently.

Interesting that Labour have come second in last two GEs, and very unlikely to happen outside of a total collapse, but far more chance of a Liberal upset than Labour one IMO.

I suspect in most of the Tory south west the LDs will be the focus for anti-Tory voting.

Yep, and the activists I talk too aren't very keen on Rishi, so IMO they're less likely to help than under Johnson, May or Cameron.

Rishi is more popular in London than the South West though, both with Tory activists and voters, see Uxbridge compared to Somerton and Frome. Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there and Boris was in pro Brexit areas of the SW.

I suspect Rishi even beat Truss with London Tory members last summer

Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there Hahaha!

Well in 2005 all Cornish seats were yellow, by 2010 half were blue and by 2015 all were blue

And in 2024 lots of them are turning yellow again!

I would not be so sure, indeed post Brexit the LDs may gain more Tory seats in Surrey or Oxfordshire than Cornwall

All those happy fisherfolk.

Labour are now more of a threat to the Tories in Cornwall than the LDs too, certainly at general elections

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Poole is an interesting one.

Never been anything but Tory or Liberal/Whig, and especially blue recently - BUT local council elections were for strong for local LDs, they've been recruiting paid positions recently.

Interesting that Labour have come second in last two GEs, and very unlikely to happen outside of a total collapse, but far more chance of a Liberal upset than Labour one IMO.

I suspect in most of the Tory south west the LDs will be the focus for anti-Tory voting.

Yep, and the activists I talk too aren't very keen on Rishi, so IMO they're less likely to help than under Johnson, May or Cameron.

Rishi is more popular in London than the South West though, both with Tory activists and voters, see Uxbridge compared to Somerton and Frome. Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there and Boris was in pro Brexit areas of the SW.

I suspect Rishi even beat Truss with London Tory members last summer

Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there Hahaha!

Well in 2005 all Cornish seats were yellow, by 2010 half were blue and by 2015 all were blue

And in 2024 lots of them are turning yellow again!

I would not be so sure, indeed post Brexit the LDs may gain more Tory seats in Surrey or Oxfordshire than Cornwall

All those happy fisherfolk.

Labour are now more of a threat to the Tories in Cornwall than the LDs too, certainly at general elections

Labour are a threat in a couple of constituencies. But here’s an MRP from way back last June - post partygate but pre Truss:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/01/conservatives-set-lose-26-their-64-lib-dem-battleg

And MRPs have tended to underestimate tactical voting,

A woman is “an adult female”, Sir Keir Starmer has said, as he confirms the Labour Party’s hardened stance on gender

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1684315684166041600

ROFL

What looked like a Chinook just flew over my house… I can only assume the Russians are invading

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Poole is an interesting one.

Never been anything but Tory or Liberal/Whig, and especially blue recently - BUT local council elections were for strong for local LDs, they've been recruiting paid positions recently.

Interesting that Labour have come second in last two GEs, and very unlikely to happen outside of a total collapse, but far more chance of a Liberal upset than Labour one IMO.

I suspect in most of the Tory south west the LDs will be the focus for anti-Tory voting.

Yep, and the activists I talk too aren't very keen on Rishi, so IMO they're less likely to help than under Johnson, May or Cameron.

Rishi is more popular in London than the South West though, both with Tory activists and voters, see Uxbridge compared to Somerton and Frome. Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there and Boris was in pro Brexit areas of the SW.

I suspect Rishi even beat Truss with London Tory members last summer

Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there Hahaha!

Well in 2005 all Cornish seats were yellow, by 2010 half were blue and by 2015 all were blue

And in 2024 lots of them are turning yellow again!

I would not be so sure, indeed post Brexit the LDs may gain more Tory seats in Surrey or Oxfordshire than Cornwall

All those happy fisherfolk.

Labour are now more of a threat to the Tories in Cornwall than the LDs too, certainly at general elections

Labour are a threat in a couple of constituencies. But here’s an MRP from way back last June - post partygate but pre Truss:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/01/conservatives-set-lose-26-their-64-lib-dem-battleg

And MRPs have tended to underestimate tactical voting,

Tories predicted to lose more seats to the LDs in Surrey than Cornwall there too.

The average LD general election voter now is an upper middle class, high earning graduate who voted Remain.

Whereas in 1997 there was not much difference between the average LD and Labour voter demographically

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Anything stand out as interesting on the list, in a "Hey Ed Davey, you have this seat" way? It's not quite as simple as "mega safe Conservative seats"; there's nothing from even the outermost edges of London there (Romford, say, or Hornchurch & Upminster). Wonder what the best bet for a shock Labour win is there? I think I'd go for Bognor Regis & Littlehampton, as the Brighton effect spreads along the Sussex coast.

Well noted. It looks like someone has carved out any seat in a traditional metropolitan area from this list - albeit not many outside London that are safe Tory. Perhaps there is plenty of interest in any London area candidacy or perhaps they are more than usually worried about choosing a dodgy candidate there relative to say the north coast of Scotland.

El_Capitano said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Poole is an interesting one.

Never been anything but Tory or Liberal/Whig, and especially blue recently - BUT local council elections were for strong for local LDs, they've been recruiting paid positions recently.

Interesting that Labour have come second in last two GEs, and very unlikely to happen outside of a total collapse, but far more chance of a Liberal upset than Labour one IMO.

I suspect in most of the Tory south west the LDs will be the focus for anti-Tory voting.

Yep, and the activists I talk too aren't very keen on Rishi, so IMO they're less likely to help than under Johnson, May or Cameron.

Rishi is more popular in London than the South West though, both with Tory activists and voters, see Uxbridge compared to Somerton and Frome. Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there and Boris was in pro Brexit areas of the SW.

I suspect Rishi even beat Truss with London Tory members last summer

Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there Hahaha!

Well in 2005 all Cornish seats were yellow, by 2010 half were blue and by 2015 all were blue

And in 2024 lots of them are turning yellow again!

I would not be so sure, indeed post Brexit the LDs may gain more Tory seats in Surrey or Oxfordshire than Cornwall

All those happy fisherfolk.

Labour are now more of a threat to the Tories in Cornwall than the LDs too, certainly at general elections

Cornwall isn’t homogeneous. Labour will win back Camborne & Redruth - as they did when the excellent Candy Atherton held its predecessor seat. The Lib Dems will win St Ives.

You are of course right that the LDs are going to make serious inroads in Oxfordshire - very probably three (OxWAb, Wantage, Henley), and a good chance of Bicester & Woodstock too.

OxWAb already LD

HYUFD said:

El_Capitano said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Poole is an interesting one.

Never been anything but Tory or Liberal/Whig, and especially blue recently - BUT local council elections were for strong for local LDs, they've been recruiting paid positions recently.

Interesting that Labour have come second in last two GEs, and very unlikely to happen outside of a total collapse, but far more chance of a Liberal upset than Labour one IMO.

I suspect in most of the Tory south west the LDs will be the focus for anti-Tory voting.

Yep, and the activists I talk too aren't very keen on Rishi, so IMO they're less likely to help than under Johnson, May or Cameron.

Rishi is more popular in London than the South West though, both with Tory activists and voters, see Uxbridge compared to Somerton and Frome. Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there and Boris was in pro Brexit areas of the SW.

I suspect Rishi even beat Truss with London Tory members last summer

Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there Hahaha!

Well in 2005 all Cornish seats were yellow, by 2010 half were blue and by 2015 all were blue

And in 2024 lots of them are turning yellow again!

I would not be so sure, indeed post Brexit the LDs may gain more Tory seats in Surrey or Oxfordshire than Cornwall

All those happy fisherfolk.

Labour are now more of a threat to the Tories in Cornwall than the LDs too, certainly at general elections

Cornwall isn’t homogeneous. Labour will win back Camborne & Redruth - as they did when the excellent Candy Atherton held its predecessor seat. The Lib Dems will win St Ives.

You are of course right that the LDs are going to make serious inroads in Oxfordshire - very probably three (OxWAb, Wantage, Henley), and a good chance of Bicester & Woodstock too.

OxWAb already LD

Yes, I do know that

algarkirk said:

state_go_away said:

Say what you like about Nigel Farage but he his bloody effective when he puts his mind to it

Yes. He has that rare quality; when he speaks you listen. Very few have it to the degree he has. Blair. Clinton. Thatcher. Ken Clarke. Obama. Salmond. Boris (of course). Of current performers there are traces of it in Badenoch, Gove, Streeting. Best of the current bunch is Kate Forbes.

As to the opposite quality; when they speak you go to sleep. The choice is endless. Right at the top: SNP leader (can't recall his name), Barclay, Sir K (sadly), Jenrick, Reeves, Hands, Dowden, Davey, Ashworth, Thomas-Symonds.

I thought when Jenrick spoke you counted the spoons.

Richard_Tyndall said:

algarkirk said:

state_go_away said:

Say what you like about Nigel Farage but he his bloody effective when he puts his mind to it

Yes. He has that rare quality; when he speaks you listen. Very few have it to the degree he has. Blair. Clinton. Thatcher. Ken Clarke. Obama. Salmond. Boris (of course). Of current performers there are traces of it in Badenoch, Gove, Streeting. Best of the current bunch is Kate Forbes.

As to the opposite quality; when they speak you go to sleep. The choice is endless. Right at the top: SNP leader (can't recall his name), Barclay, Sir K (sadly), Jenrick, Reeves, Hands, Dowden, Davey, Ashworth, Thomas-Symonds.

I thought when Jenrick spoke you counted the spoons.

That's why he lulls you to sleep first.

Stuartinromford said:

EPG said:

Fishing said:

HYUFD said:

UK projected to be 10th largest economy by 2075 just behind Germany at 9th. China biggest, US second, India 3rd, Indonesia 4th and Nigeria 5th.

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1684144351239196672?s=20

If economic forecasters can't project the next quarter's GDP numbers successfully, why should we listen to what they think will happen in 2075?

Answer: we shouldn't.

And that from somebody who's done more than my fair share of economic forecasting.

Answer: because short-term volatility is ... volatile, while the well-known factors that predict economic growth over the long term will even out in the end. The most important of those factors being population and productivity - if you accept the projections, economic growth predictions follow naturally. Whereas for next quarter's GDP you have to know changes in energy costs, weather, short-term exuberance levels, etc. etc.e

See also weather vs climate, and individual constituencies vs general elections.

Of course, we can't really predict (say) Nigerian population growth. We don't even know Nigeria's population very well. And a few decimals of a percentage point is the usual error in GDP forecasting, which is pretty okay to me. But I thought the general point was worth making!

Richard_Tyndall said:

Good thread header but would appreciate a clarification.

Cyclefree criticises Badenoch on the grounds that she should do more than just express an opinion but I thought the Goverment has been saying over the last 2 weeks that they are doing something about this and are tightening the rules to stop it happening. If that is the case then what more does Badenoch need to do?*

*In thie case of the banks. I agree entirely she should be doing something about the Post Office.

What the government has said it will do is ensure that banks give an explanation for account closures, though as others have pointed out that comes up against the requirements of other rules so may not be as easy as it sounds. Badenoch's tweet was about free speech and no discrimination on the basis of belief. But this isn't really a free speech issue and the EA already applies to banks. So it is unclear what Badenoch is talking about. It felt to me like she wanted to say something but had not really thought it through.

And she has form doing this - tweeting criticisms but not AFAICS actually taking steps in areas which are her responsibility. Too many politicians have jumped on a bandwagon rather than understanding what the issues really are and that they arise in part because of the rules politicians have put in place to deal with genuine mischiefs.

Martin Rowson is back, and has written another apology/explanation:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/26/britain-prejudices-cartoon-antisemitic-tropes

El_Capitano said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

TimS said:

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Benpointer said:

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Labour announce their 'Non Priority seats Parliamentary candidates selection process is open'. List of seats below for any Labour candidates seeking to earn their spurs before seeking a safer or better prospect, unless the odd 197 style shock

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Seats-Open-For-Selection.pdf

Poole is an interesting one.

Never been anything but Tory or Liberal/Whig, and especially blue recently - BUT local council elections were for strong for local LDs, they've been recruiting paid positions recently.

Interesting that Labour have come second in last two GEs, and very unlikely to happen outside of a total collapse, but far more chance of a Liberal upset than Labour one IMO.

I suspect in most of the Tory south west the LDs will be the focus for anti-Tory voting.

Yep, and the activists I talk too aren't very keen on Rishi, so IMO they're less likely to help than under Johnson, May or Cameron.

Rishi is more popular in London than the South West though, both with Tory activists and voters, see Uxbridge compared to Somerton and Frome. Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there and Boris was in pro Brexit areas of the SW.

I suspect Rishi even beat Truss with London Tory members last summer

Cameron was popular in Cornwall as he holidayed there Hahaha!

Well in 2005 all Cornish seats were yellow, by 2010 half were blue and by 2015 all were blue

And in 2024 lots of them are turning yellow again!

I would not be so sure, indeed post Brexit the LDs may gain more Tory seats in Surrey or Oxfordshire than Cornwall

All those happy fisherfolk.

Labour are now more of a threat to the Tories in Cornwall than the LDs too, certainly at general elections

Cornwall isn’t homogeneous. Labour will win back Camborne & Redruth - as they did when the excellent Candy Atherton held its predecessor seat. The Lib Dems will win St Ives.

You are of course right that the LDs are going to make serious inroads in Oxfordshire - very probably three (OxWAb, Wantage, Henley), and a good chance of Bicester & Woodstock too.

"Aah, Bicester!"

Sad news re Sinead O'Connor. RIP.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

"Andrew Malkinson: Rape conviction of man who spent 17 years in prison overturned
Fresh DNA evidence has emerged linking another suspect to the crime."

https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-malkinson-rape-conviction-of-man-who-spent-17-years-in-prison-overturned-12927618

Poor bastard.

Is it still the case that they can charge you room and board for the time spent in prison and take it out of your compensation?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/northamptonshire/6702519.stm

That is absolutely shocking.

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

"Andrew Malkinson: Rape conviction of man who spent 17 years in prison overturned
Fresh DNA evidence has emerged linking another suspect to the crime."

https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-malkinson-rape-conviction-of-man-who-spent-17-years-in-prison-overturned-12927618

Poor bastard.

Is it still the case that they can charge you room and board for the time spent in prison and take it out of your compensation?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/northamptonshire/6702519.stm

That is absolutely shocking.

'A 37-year-old man jailed for a crime he did not commit is being charged almost £7,000 for his time in prison.
Warren Blackwell from Woodford Halse, Northamptonshire, has been told the sum will be deducted from compensation to cover savings on rent and food....

Ministry of Justice statement
Mr Warren was told he would receive compensation minus £6,800, which has been assessed as the amount of money he had saved from normal expenses while in jail.'

Who knew prison could be such a cost of living saving?

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

alednam said:

Kemi Badenoch has taken plenty of action -- in the form of speech of her own. And again shows herself as as much a climate change denier as Farage.
Badenoch attacked the Labour party's decision not further to expand exploitation and extraction from the North Sea, saying that their decision was outrageous and disgraceful.”

Given that the continued use of gas is baked in by our reliance on intermittent wind and solar power, exploiting our own oil and gas isn't only important economically, and for reasons of energy security, it also reduces overall CO2 emissions. The liquification process and transportation required to import gas from Saudia Arabia or the USA is highly energy intensive. Anyone genuinely concerned about CO2 emissions (as opposed to just having it out for the British economy) would welcome more North Sea Oil development.

You keep repeating this claim about liquefaction, but it doesn't really bear scrutiny, because the gas that is coming from Qatar or Australia is very high ERoEI.

For US tight gas, where lots of energy (mostly in the form of diesel) is used to get water up to pressure fracture the rock, it might be different, but the liquification and transport costs of LNG are negligible compared to the energy costs associated with setting up a field.

Now that wasn't always the case. Early LNG carriers had boil off rates of 1.2-1.3% per day; but a modern tanker can be as low as 0.06% per day. Which means on a trip from Qatar to the UK you might lose 0.5-0.6% of the gas. And don't forget that while energy is used to liquify gas, modern regas terminals recapture a lot of that as it expands for power needs.

So, true energy losses are really minimal these days.

Also worth remembering that boiled off LNG is what powers the LNG tanker.

Fairliered said:

Benpointer said:

Jim_Miller said:

Vanilla problem? This morning, when I first saw this post, the header said there was 1 comment. It is still saying there is just 1, when there are now hundreds.

(I am using the Chrome browser, if that matters. I got the same result, just now, with Microsoft Edge.)

Same here with Safari.

Maybe something connected with the closed duplicate thread, which has 1 comment? Viewing on vanilla.

When I mentioned the "1 Comment" thing - they laughed!

But when JIM mentions it - they take notice!

Busiest cinema this evening that I've been in for a long time, for Oppenheimer. About 75% full (not including the seats at the front). Might go and see it again because there's a lot to take in over 3 hours.