politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why CON could still be losing seats to LAB even if its mana
So under a uniform national swing CON needs to be ahead by that margin simply to stop losing seats to LAB. That is the starting point for the party at GE15 – to do at least as well as they did last time. Thus it cannot be assumed that CON lead of 6% is sufficient for them to hang onto all they hold at the moment from LAB.
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First!0
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Then of course there's what happens in Scotland and how big a hoo-ha the SNP are able to make about Labour foot dragging on 'the Vow'.......0
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Hendon is given twice - is this a typo?0
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"It cannot be assumed", but neither can it be discounted.
Never forget UNS is a model of the electoral system, not a rule of the electoral system...
UNS has broken down before, e.g. notably in 2001.
What actually happens depends on a host of factors. Some will (broadly) cancel out, but others may easily stack up to the detriment of one or more parties in the election...0 -
How does this view take UKIP and its effect on Labour heartlands / marginals into account?0
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I think The Miliband strategy is rapidly unravelling - without UKIP he might have fallen behind much sooner. We were told before that the LD switching meant Labour couldn't go below 35%. How's that looking now. NOM IS by far the likeliest outcome - after that who knows. So pleased I don't bet!0
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Miliband and Labour also consistently uses the wrong tactics - like yesterday's silly focus on when we knew about the EU Bill when what was needed was a clear line against the EU. A fault also repeated on here by the UKIP trolls.0
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Morning all.
New ComRes phone poll for Indy - LAB down 5, UKIP up 4
CON 30 (+1), LAB 30, (-5), LD 9 (-1), UKIP 19 (+4), GRN 4 (nc)
Not the first poll to show a larger than MOE swing directly from LAB>UKiP – I think the days of Ed giggling from the side-lines as the blues and purples battle it out may be gone for good.
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The Indy have front paged it - making the classic mistake of directly linking events in the news to poll movements:SimonStClare said:Morning all.
New ComRes phone poll for Indy - LAB down 5, UKIP up 4
CON 30 (+1), LAB 30, (-5), LD 9 (-1), UKIP 19 (+4), GRN 4 (nc)
Not the first poll to show a larger than MOE swing directly from LAB>UKiP – I think the days of Ed giggling from the side-lines as the blues and purples battle it out may be gone for good.
Support for Ukip has surged to a record high following the surprise attempt by Brussels to levy a £1.7bn “surcharge” on Britain, a ComRes survey for the Independent reveals today.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-huge-surge-in-support-for-ukip-after-17bn-eu-funding-row-according-to-new-poll-9821889.html
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YouGov/Sun poll: 5th poll in a row Con/LAB tying, CON 32%, LAB 32%, UKIP 18%, LD 8%.
Ed's 35% strategy may need a re-think...0 -
Yougov
Just 49% of Labour VI think it is best to handle asylum and immigration - a soft and vulnerable edge to be nibbled away by UKIP and Cons.0 -
"As is widely known the yellows have a record of outperforming national swing in the seats that they hold, particularly where the existing MP is standing for re-election."
This isn't really true when the Liberals / Lib Dems' performance has taken a hit nationally, although the data is scarce.
In 1970, the Liberal vote fell 1% and their representation halved.
In 1979, the Liberal vote fell 4.5% but they only lost 2 out of 13 seats (one of which was Thorpe, where special circumstances applied).
In 2011, the Lib Dems lost 9 of their 11 constituency seats and saw little compensation in the regional top-ups.
Now, the polls *do* suggest that Lib Dem-held seats are outperforming their national share at the moment and that we can't ignore. However, there does come a tipping point - and the Lib Dems are close to it - where they have hardly any votes left to lose except in their strong areas.0 -
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2810292/Migrants-really-swamping-parts-UK-says-Blunkett-Ex-Home-Secretary-backs-minister-rebuked-No-10-TV-comments.html
Blunkett gets it - pity about Miliband and the chattering classes.0 -
On a similar theme, the further the two main parties' shares vote, the more I feel we should be building some proportional swing into the numbers as well as UNS.
A 7% lead on a combined share of 80% is a very different thing from one on a combined share of 50%, for example, simply because the further down you go, the more you bottom out in your worst seats and so a larger share has to have come from elsewhere.
In any case, an element of proportionality has to be included to take account of the dramatic change in vote shares of the Lib Dems and UKIP since 2010.0 -
Labour on 38 in the North, and 30 with C2DE.
Both new lows for the Parliament?
UKIP up to 25 on both. New highs ?0 -
I think this particular claim will face it's most severe test next year.david_herdson said:"As is widely known the yellows have a record of outperforming national swing in the seats that they hold, particularly where the existing MP is standing for re-election."
This isn't really true when the Liberals / Lib Dems' performance has taken a hit nationally, although the data is scarce.
In 1970, the Liberal vote fell 1% and their representation halved.
In 1979, the Liberal vote fell 4.5% but they only lost 2 out of 13 seats (one of which was Thorpe, where special circumstances applied).
In 2011, the Lib Dems lost 9 of their 11 constituency seats and saw little compensation in the regional top-ups.
Now, the polls *do* suggest that Lib Dem-held seats are outperforming their national share at the moment and that we can't ignore. However, there does come a tipping point - and the Lib Dems are close to it - where they have hardly any votes left to lose except in their strong areas.0 -
David Blunket, writing in the Mail, castigates Labour for avoiding discussion on immigration and its effects on the people of the UK.
"As a result of a substantial recent influx of incomers from Eastern Europe, there has been a host of difficulties, such as a lack of interpretation services, exploitation of migrants by rogue landlords, the stress on normal waste collection because of multiple occupation of terrace housing and the gathering of large groups in the streets.
But these issues will not be resolved by attacking foreigners and creating a climate of fear, as Ukip tries to do.
What we need is, first, an honest, calm reflection on how people feel about their neighbourhoods, and then a search for practical solutions.
That means, for instance, enforcing norms of behaviour, introducing an expectation that all citizens should speak the English language, strengthening borders through agreement with other European nations and stipulating that people can claim benefits only on the basis of the contributions they have made to Britain.......
Those who have not found work should return to their countries of origin — a requirement that is perfectly applicable within current EU rules.
In simple terms, if you come here to work, you should work, and there should be no access to social security or state housing without having built up an entitlement.
Such measures would help to lance the boil of immigration concerns and thereby restore faith in our democracy.
What will not work is shouting down any politician who dares to engage with the British public’s concerns. The issue is far too serious for such posturing."
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And Cons? The ones who will have been running the country for the past five years, or some other Cons?Financier said:Yougov
Just 49% of Labour VI think it is best to handle asylum and immigration - a soft and vulnerable edge to be nibbled away by UKIP and Cons.0 -
When I went to bed, there was entire thread devoted to that poll. This morning it has been vaporized. Is Mike in smiting mode? Beware.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
New ComRes phone poll for Indy - LAB down 5, UKIP up 4
CON 30 (+1), LAB 30, (-5), LD 9 (-1), UKIP 19 (+4), GRN 4 (nc)
Not the first poll to show a larger than MOE swing directly from LAB>UKiP – I think the days of Ed giggling from the side-lines as the blues and purples battle it out may be gone for good.0 -
Ashcroft Marginals May
Dudley N
lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Dudley-North.pdf
Lab 40, UKIP 27, Tory 24
Great Grimsby
lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Great-Grimsby.pdf
Lab 38, UKIP 26, Tory 21
Walsall N
lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Walsall-North.pdf
Lab 37, UKIP 30, Tory 21
Six months on, with polling moving the way it is, these really should be UKIP targets.0 -
Yougov polls show that Labour have lost 3% of their 2010 VI in the last month - to UKIP, Cons, LD and Greens.DecrepitJohnL said:
And Cons? The ones who will have been running the country for the past five years, or some other Cons?Financier said:Yougov
Just 49% of Labour VI think it is best to handle asylum and immigration - a soft and vulnerable edge to be nibbled away by UKIP and Cons.0 -
1997?david_herdson said:"As is widely known the yellows have a record of outperforming national swing in the seats that they hold, particularly where the existing MP is standing for re-election."
This isn't really true when the Liberals / Lib Dems' performance has taken a hit nationally, although the data is scarce.
In 1970, the Liberal vote fell 1% and their representation halved.
In 1979, the Liberal vote fell 4.5% but they only lost 2 out of 13 seats (one of which was Thorpe, where special circumstances applied).
In 2011, the Lib Dems lost 9 of their 11 constituency seats and saw little compensation in the regional top-ups.
Now, the polls *do* suggest that Lib Dem-held seats are outperforming their national share at the moment and that we can't ignore. However, there does come a tipping point - and the Lib Dems are close to it - where they have hardly any votes left to lose except in their strong areas.0 -
Not sure it's always true regarding the Lib Dem incumbent bonus. There were large swings against sitting Lib Dem MPs in Montgomeryshire, Oxford West and Abingdon, Mid Dorset and Poole North, and St. Ives. Also, some seats they held in 2001/2005 moved totally out of reach, like Newbury and Guildford. Winchester was gained on a large swing, although tbh that did have the 'Oaten effect'.
I think it's fair to see the 2015GE results will be mixed, depending upon the seat and the profile of the local MP.0 -
Interesting meme shift on political betting the last few days. Mike et. al. now talking about 'how' the Conservatives can, or cannot, win. This is the first time in several years as previously the idea has tended to be dismissed out of hand.
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And this makes for potential Conservative gains from Labour.Financier said:
Yougov polls show that Labour have lost 3% of their 2010 VI in the last month - to UKIP, Cons, LD and Greens.DecrepitJohnL said:
And Cons? The ones who will have been running the country for the past five years, or some other Cons?Financier said:Yougov
Just 49% of Labour VI think it is best to handle asylum and immigration - a soft and vulnerable edge to be nibbled away by UKIP and Cons.0 -
Er - i think you mean the COALITION don't you?DecrepitJohnL said:
And Cons? The ones who will have been running the country for the past five years, or some other Cons?Financier said:Yougov
Just 49% of Labour VI think it is best to handle asylum and immigration - a soft and vulnerable edge to be nibbled away by UKIP and Cons.0 -
Morning all and wondering what the mood music on here will be like when Labour start polling below 30% and it appears Labour and UKIP are moving towards one another around 25%.
Been very interesting in recent days to see tweets appearing proclaiming what a good MP Anna Soubry is, said tweets being from non-Tory voters. I like Nick as a person but really looking forward to seeing her majority increase at the GE to more than 1000.
It really is time you betting types start looking at the marginal Labour seats which could go Tory in May.
Meanwhile back in North Britain, Labour politicians are falling over one another not to stand for the SLAB leadership. Jim Murphy may be intelligent, articulate and to the right of the Labour Party but he is not an MSP and if SLAB elects a Westminster MP as Scottish leader, it will just add fuel to the media story that Labour treats Scotland like a branch office of Westminster.0 -
TORY WINS!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29775281
(John Tory that is - he's a moderate conservative, what else?)0 -
Have there ?Easterross said:
Been very interesting in recent days to see tweets appearing proclaiming what a good MP Anna Soubry is, said tweets being from non-Tory voters. I like Nick as a person but really looking forward to seeing her majority increase at the GE to more than 1000.
You wouldn't mind pasting them here would you ?
I must admit to be a little curious as to how you're aware of them and to how you know they're from non-Tory voters.
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Ah, I did wonder why there was so little comment on last night’s polling; discussion appeared to abruptly halt, shortly after 10pm? – no doubt it was er, entertaining…. ; )JohnO said:
When I went to bed, there was entire thread devoted to that poll. This morning it has been vaporized. Is Mike in smiting mode? Beware.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
New ComRes phone poll for Indy - LAB down 5, UKIP up 4
CON 30 (+1), LAB 30, (-5), LD 9 (-1), UKIP 19 (+4), GRN 4 (nc)
Not the first poll to show a larger than MOE swing directly from LAB>UKiP – I think the days of Ed giggling from the side-lines as the blues and purples battle it out may be gone for good.0 -
I would say its becoming more clear that UKIP are now starting to damage Labours vote, and the worst of the ukip effect to the tories is now done.
The big question is who can unwind that support, if possible back to them at the GE.0 -
I don’t think anyone except Lembit was surprised at Montgomery. And didn’t Winchester, and Harrogate, have a couple of very Tory wards added?Casino_Royale said:Not sure it's always true regarding the Lib Dem incumbent bonus. There were large swings against sitting Lib Dem MPs in Montgomeryshire, Oxford West and Abingdon, Mid Dorset and Poole North, and St. Ives. Also, some seats they held in 2001/2005 moved totally out of reach, like Newbury and Guildford. Winchester was gained on a large swing, although tbh that did have the 'Oaten effect'.
I think it's fair to see the 2015GE results will be mixed, depending upon the seat and the profile of the local MP.0 -
At what point does a 35% strategy work for Dave?
What does he need LibLabKip to be polling for that to leave him in number 10?
What does he need LibLabKip to be polling for him to have an effective majority?
How many does he need to have a strong enough minority government that he can call on UKIP/UUP to back the right wing elements from his manifesto, and the Libs to back his left wing bits?
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I had the joy this morning of waking to hear a Labour MP burbling on about Fatcha and pit closures.
The great irony being from her first day as PM to her last Thatcher's government subsidised the mining industry with taxpayers money.
Now how much money did the last Labour government give to coal mining ?
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Well I was on the Conservatives at about 6/1 for both Montgomery and Harrogate. The swings in both and also in Winchester were huge.OldKingCole said:
I don’t think anyone except Lembit was surprised at Montgomery. And didn’t Winchester, and Harrogate, have a couple of very Tory wards added?Casino_Royale said:Not sure it's always true regarding the Lib Dem incumbent bonus. There were large swings against sitting Lib Dem MPs in Montgomeryshire, Oxford West and Abingdon, Mid Dorset and Poole North, and St. Ives. Also, some seats they held in 2001/2005 moved totally out of reach, like Newbury and Guildford. Winchester was gained on a large swing, although tbh that did have the 'Oaten effect'.
I think it's fair to see the 2015GE results will be mixed, depending upon the seat and the profile of the local MP.
Newton Abbot and Cambourne were also both big swings and a big profits.
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I've asked this before of other posters, can anyone point me to a thread header saying the Conservatives can't win the next election?audreyanne said:Interesting meme shift on political betting the last few days. Mike et. al. now talking about 'how' the Conservatives can, or cannot, win. This is the first time in several years as previously the idea has tended to be dismissed out of hand.
Until now the polling has been very clear and so the narrative has been very clear. Of course, we could spend 5 years between elections saying "no point speculating, let's wait for the result" but that would somewhat devalue a political betting site, wouldn't it?0 -
My IT skills do not extend to trawling through tweets from last week. There are increasing numbers of tweets appearing saying "I don't vote for X but s/he is a good constituency MP" Philip Davies gets dozens every day. I follow Anna Soubry so if she retweets such tweets, I see them if they are recent enough. It is possible to work out if someone is genuine or placed. When someone's twitter profile talks about the wife, kids, dog and football team you know it tends to be a genuine "ordinary" person.another_richard said:
Have there ?Easterross said:
Been very interesting in recent days to see tweets appearing proclaiming what a good MP Anna Soubry is, said tweets being from non-Tory voters. I like Nick as a person but really looking forward to seeing her majority increase at the GE to more than 1000.
You wouldn't mind pasting them here would you ?
I must admit to be a little curious as to how you're aware of them and to how you know they're from non-Tory voters.0 -
For some months now the Tories have been drifting behind the pattern that is in Fisher's model and which was going to lead to a majority government. They started in a very good place because Labour never built up the kind of mid term leads that a successful opposition usually does but the picture was remarkably stable which meant the projected majority disappeared into NOC and then into Labour being the largest party, albeit only just.
In the last couple of weeks, however, there have been dramatic changes in that the firewall that Labour relied on for so long has become a sieve. As has been discussed on here before this is not so much because the 2010 Lib Dems are wandering off (although the percentage of them voting Labour has clearly fallen) as the 2010 Labour vote proving to be weak with a tendency to slide to UKIP.
I suspect by Friday if this continues the model will show the Tories as the largest party by a comfortable margin again. What is missing is a significant increase in the Tory vote which is broadly static in the very low 30s. This remains a challenge with UKIP taking a reasonable chunk of the 2010 Tory vote.
The point made by David Herdson below is an interesting one: if the Tory/Lab share of the vote is diminished is it necessary to have the same level of gap between them to get the same result? Logically, I would say not but the effect of the UKIP surge is highly unpredictable and makes traditional modelling suspect.
What I think is clear is that Labour is facing an existential crisis with a very serious risk that they will poll significantly below what Brown got in 2010. The lower they go the lower the bar for the Tories. I can now see a scenario where their share of the vote falls from 2010 and their number of seats increases. Interesting times.0 -
This is a great illustration of the paucity of Labour thinking which results in policies suitable for the last quarter of the 20th century instead of the 2020s.another_richard said:I had the joy this morning of waking to hear a Labour MP burbling on about Fatcha and pit closures.
The great irony being from her first day as PM to her last Thatcher's government subsidised the mining industry with taxpayers money.
Now how much money did the last Labour government give to coal mining ?
The world has moved on and is moving on at a greater speed and Labour and the unions have to realise that the game has changed markedly and Western Europe is playing (not very well) catch up with Asia.
We have to change our game, work a lot harder, become more aspirational and reward ourselves less - the world does not owe us a living and will not continue to lend us money to enable us to live in the way we have become accustomed. No doubt shouts of Not Fair will arise from the ranks of Labour and the LibDems, but it is either adapt or die.0 -
These pro-Soubry tweets from non-Tory voters wouldn't be something like this would they:
MichaelGreen: I've always been Labour but Anna Soubry is brilliant # voteconservative
SebastianFox: I'm not a Conservative but Anna Soubry is a much better MP than Nick Palmer was # CameronforPM
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This seems to rather naively assume that the incumbent parties won't benefit from "hold on to nurse for fear of worse" come the election.
Which would be about the only election in history that it didn't. The fact is that mid term, a large amount of voters use opinion polls as a verdict on government performance rather than an indication of voting intention.
The Guardian has all its ICM polls since 1984 online. The swingback from the October the previous year opinion poll to the election results are below:
1987 Election
Oct 1986 Opinion Poll Labour 3 points ahead of Tories
June 1987 Election Tories 11 points ahead of Labour
Change 14 points towards incumbent government
1992 Election
Oct 1991 Opinion Poll Labour 8 points ahead of Tories
April 1992 Election Tories 7 points ahead of Labour
Change 15 points towards incumbent government
1997 Election
Oct 1996 Opinion Poll Labour 18 points ahead of Tories
May 1997 Election Labour 12 points ahead of Tories
Change 6 points towards incumbent government
2001 Election
Oct 2000 Opinion Poll Labour 5 points ahead of Tories
June 2001 Election Labour 9 points ahead of Tories
Change 4 points towards incumbent government.
2005 Election
Oct 2004 Opinion Poll Labour 6 points ahead of Tories
April 1992 Election Labour 3 points ahead of Tories
Change 3 points away from incumbent government.
2010 Election
Oct 2009 Opinion Poll Labour 17 points ahead of Tories
April 1992 Election Labour 7 points ahead of Tories
Change 10 points towards incumbent government.
Only in one of those elections (2005) did the incumbent lose between October and the election. In all the others the incumbent regained between 4 and 15 points, the average over all six elections is 8.8%
Which party is incumbent is also a significant factor.
Where Tories are incumbent on average they pulled back 11.67% between October and the Election
Where labour are incumbent on average they pulled back 6% between October and the Election
Three factors this time will exacerbate matters further for Labour.
(1) SNP in Scotland
(2) Fixed term parliament act. Normally by October before election, mid termism is fading as the Prime Minister can go to the country at any time. This time round, we know the election won't be until May 2015 so opinion poll recipients will still be more "mid term" in their responses.
(3) LD vote collapse erodes the advantage the electoral system gives Labour.
Sorry but this is, I think, wishful thinking by OGH. Labour are in deep, deep trouble.
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What are you going to give up and how are you going to work harder?Financier said:
This is a great illustration of the paucity of Labour thinking which results in policies suitable for the last quarter of the 20th century instead of the 2020s.another_richard said:I had the joy this morning of waking to hear a Labour MP burbling on about Fatcha and pit closures.
The great irony being from her first day as PM to her last Thatcher's government subsidised the mining industry with taxpayers money.
Now how much money did the last Labour government give to coal mining ?
The world has moved on and is moving on at a greater speed and Labour and the unions have to realise that the game has changed markedly and Western Europe is playing (not very well) catch up with Asia.
We have to change our game, work a lot harder, become more aspirational and reward ourselves less - the world does not owe us a living and will not continue to lend us money to enable us to live in the way we have become accustomed. No doubt shouts of Not Fair will arise from the ranks of Labour and the LibDems, but it is either adapt or die.
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Morning all,
Amber valley, which is not far from where I live is interesting. There is 7% from BNP from GE 2010 up for grabs.0 -
Can't wait for some Scottish polls, I think Survation are starting soon.
A Radio 4 piece on Scottish Labour a little earlier just reinforces my opinion that Labour's massive majorities in 30 or 40 Scottish seats will disappear next year.
I also wonder if anything will happen in Wales or if that is a battleground for the next election cycle. The Welsh Assembly government also appears to be making a pigs ear of things.
If the Tories have a problem with Ukip (and they do!) then Labour face a battle with Ukip, SNP, Plaid, the Greens, etc, etc.0 -
nope. Didn't mention Nick Palmer and referred to particular local issues. I looked at the profiles of the ones I have spotted and most of their tweets have been about x-Factor, Strictly Come Dancing, football scores etc so definitely not politicos in disguise.another_richard said:These pro-Soubry tweets from non-Tory voters wouldn't be something like this would they:
MichaelGreen: I've always been Labour but Anna Soubry is brilliant # voteconservative
SebastianFox: I'm not a Conservative but Anna Soubry is a much better MP than Nick Palmer was # CameronforPM0 -
The Tories are polling below Labour, UKIP take more votes from them than Labour, the Lib Dems are facing crossover with the Greens, and you think Labour are the ones in existential crisis? Jog on.DavidL said:For some months now the Tories have been drifting behind the pattern that is in Fisher's model and which was going to lead to a majority government. They started in a very good place because Labour never built up the kind of mid term leads that a successful opposition usually does but the picture was remarkably stable which meant the projected majority disappeared into NOC and then into Labour being the largest party, albeit only just.
In the last couple of weeks, however, there have been dramatic changes in that the firewall that Labour relied on for so long has become a sieve. As has been discussed on here before this is not so much because the 2010 Lib Dems are wandering off (although the percentage of them voting Labour has clearly fallen) as the 2010 Labour vote proving to be weak with a tendency to slide to UKIP.
I suspect by Friday if this continues the model will show the Tories as the largest party by a comfortable margin again. What is missing is a significant increase in the Tory vote which is broadly static in the very low 30s. This remains a challenge with UKIP taking a reasonable chunk of the 2010 Tory vote.
The point made by David Herdson below is an interesting one: if the Tory/Lab share of the vote is diminished is it necessary to have the same level of gap between them to get the same result? Logically, I would say not but the effect of the UKIP surge is highly unpredictable and makes traditional modelling suspect.
What I think is clear is that Labour is facing an existential crisis with a very serious risk that they will poll significantly below what Brown got in 2010. The lower they go the lower the bar for the Tories. I can now see a scenario where their share of the vote falls from 2010 and their number of seats increases. Interesting times.0 -
Yes, but in all those elections the Prime Minister was able to choose the date of the election to his Party's advantage.Paul_Mid_Beds said:This seems to rather naively assume that the incumbent parties won't benefit from "hold on to nurse for fear of worse" come the election.
Which would be about the only election in history that it didn't. The fact is that mid term, a large amount of voters use opinion polls as a verdict on government performance rather than an indication of voting intention.
The Guardian has all its ICM polls since 1984 online. The swingback from the October the previous year opinion poll to the election results are below:
1987 Election
Oct 1986 Opinion Poll Labour 3 points ahead of Tories
June 1987 Election Tories 11 points ahead of Labour
Change 14 points towards incumbent government
1992 Election
Oct 1991 Opinion Poll Labour 8 points ahead of Tories
April 1992 Election Tories 7 points ahead of Labour
Change 15 points towards incumbent government
1997 Election
Oct 1996 Opinion Poll Labour 18 points ahead of Tories
May 1997 Election Labour 12 points ahead of Tories
Change 6 points towards incumbent government
2001 Election
Oct 2000 Opinion Poll Labour 5 points ahead of Tories
June 2001 Election Labour 9 points ahead of Tories
Change 4 points towards incumbent government.
2005 Election
Oct 2004 Opinion Poll Labour 6 points ahead of Tories
April 1992 Election Labour 3 points ahead of Tories
Change 3 points away from incumbent government.
2010 Election
Oct 2009 Opinion Poll Labour 17 points ahead of Tories
April 1992 Election Labour 7 points ahead of Tories
Change 10 points towards incumbent government.
Only in one of those elections (2005) did the incumbent lose between October and the election. In all the others the incumbent regained between 4 and 15 points, the average over all six elections is 8.8%
Which party is incumbent is also a significant factor.
Where Tories are incumbent on average they pulled back 11.67% between October and the Election
Where labour are incumbent on average they pulled back 6% between October and the Election
Three factors this time will exacerbate matters further for Labour.
(1) SNP in Scotland
(2) Fixed term parliament act. Normally by October before election, mid termism is fading as the Prime Minister can go to the country at any time. This time round, we know the election won't be until May 2015 so opinion poll recipients will still be more "mid term" in their responses.
(3) LD vote collapse erodes the advantage the electoral system gives Labour.
Sorry but this is, I think, wishful thinking by OGH. Labour are in deep, deep trouble.0 -
The Lib Dems held Winchester pre-2010 with more than a 7k majority, and 50% of the vote. Whilst some Tories thought Steve Brine would run it close, there was genuine surprise in Hampshire (where I live) that he took it. Particularly me. Martin Todd was a good candidate for them.OldKingCole said:
I don’t think anyone except Lembit was surprised at Montgomery. And didn’t Winchester, and Harrogate, have a couple of very Tory wards added?Casino_Royale said:Not sure it's always true regarding the Lib Dem incumbent bonus. There were large swings against sitting Lib Dem MPs in Montgomeryshire, Oxford West and Abingdon, Mid Dorset and Poole North, and St. Ives. Also, some seats they held in 2001/2005 moved totally out of reach, like Newbury and Guildford. Winchester was gained on a large swing, although tbh that did have the 'Oaten effect'.
I think it's fair to see the 2015GE results will be mixed, depending upon the seat and the profile of the local MP.
Montgomery was definitely a surprise, as the odds at the time attest to, which another richard points out below.
All of this took place at a time when the Lib Dems were supposed to be riding the back of the Cleggasm, a party that achieved a higher share of the national vote than even in 2005. Most of us, myself included, expected the Lib Dems to rise to c.80 seats at the time.
How do you think they will fair next year, with a vote share that's over halved?0 -
I hope you PB Scottish Tories live in some sort of different time frame which gives you double the hours in a day.Easterross said:
My IT skills do not extend to trawling through tweets from last week. There are increasing numbers of tweets appearing saying "I don't vote for X but s/he is a good constituency MP" Philip Davies gets dozens every day. I follow Anna Soubry so if she retweets such tweets, I see them if they are recent enough. It is possible to work out if someone is genuine or placed. When someone's twitter profile talks about the wife, kids, dog and football team you know it tends to be a genuine "ordinary" person.another_richard said:
Have there ?Easterross said:
Been very interesting in recent days to see tweets appearing proclaiming what a good MP Anna Soubry is, said tweets being from non-Tory voters. I like Nick as a person but really looking forward to seeing her majority increase at the GE to more than 1000.
You wouldn't mind pasting them here would you ?
I must admit to be a little curious as to how you're aware of them and to how you know they're from non-Tory voters.
The alternative is you don't have anything better to do than read endless tweets from people you've never heard of.
And if Philip Davies is getting dozens of such tweets every day that suggests that over 10,000 people a year are tweeting that he's a good constituency MP.
Either that or 100 obsessives are making 100 tweets each.
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It does have a whiff of astro-turf.another_richard said:These pro-Soubry tweets from non-Tory voters wouldn't be something like this would they:
MichaelGreen: I've always been Labour but Anna Soubry is brilliant # voteconservative
SebastianFox: I'm not a Conservative but Anna Soubry is a much better MP than Nick Palmer was # CameronforPM0 -
I think it's perfectly possible that Miliband could poll worse than Brown did in GE2010. Note: that's poll worse, not to score fewer seats, but the SNP in Scotland, UKIP in wwc northern England, and the Greens in trendy urban areas of English cities may combine to chip his vote down to c.28.5%.SeanT said:Gotta be a chance that Labour, under Miliband, could poll in the high 20s. 27 or 28%.
So all Cameron has to do is hit 32 or 33%? And he is back in Downing Street.
In other news, with the rise of Farage, and the demise of Clegg, all models are KAPUT.
I've asked Shadsy for odds on this.0 -
Elephant in the room
2010 : lab plus LD : 53.6
Populus for Indy : 39
Where dey go ?0 -
What a fascinating post using ICM/swingback - thanx for that. The Tory vs Labour % swings are notable, what do you think is causing that?
Shy Tories getting more confidence as the date gets closer? Harder headed decision making?Paul_Mid_Beds said:This seems to rather naively assume that the incumbent parties won't benefit from "hold on to nurse for fear of worse" come the election.
Which would be about the only election in history that it didn't. The fact is that mid term, a large amount of voters use opinion polls as a verdict on government performance rather than an indication of voting intention.
The Guardian has all its ICM polls since 1984 online. The swingback from the October the previous year opinion poll to the election results are below:
1987 Election
Oct 1986 Opinion Poll Labour 3 points ahead of Tories
June 1987 Election Tories 11 points ahead of Labour
Change 14 points towards incumbent government
1992 Election
Oct 1991 Opinion Poll Labour 8 points ahead of Tories
April 1992 Election Tories 7 points ahead of Labour
Change 15 points towards incumbent government
1997 Election
Oct 1996 Opinion Poll Labour 18 points ahead of Tories
May 1997 Election Labour 12 points ahead of Tories
Change 6 points towards incumbent government
2001 Election
Oct 2000 Opinion Poll Labour 5 points ahead of Tories
June 2001 Election Labour 9 points ahead of Tories
Change 4 points towards incumbent government.
2005 Election
Oct 2004 Opinion Poll Labour 6 points ahead of Tories
April 1992 Election Labour 3 points ahead of Tories
Change 3 points away from incumbent government.
2010 Election
Oct 2009 Opinion Poll Labour 17 points ahead of Tories
April 1992 Election Labour 7 points ahead of Tories
Change 10 points towards incumbent government.
Only in one of those elections (2005) did the incumbent lose between October and the election. In all the others the incumbent regained between 4 and 15 points, the average over all six elections is 8.8%
Which party is incumbent is also a significant factor.
Where Tories are incumbent on average they pulled back 11.67% between October and the Election
Where labour are incumbent on average they pulled back 6% between October and the Election
Three factors this time will exacerbate matters further for Labour.
(1) SNP in Scotland
(2) Fixed term parliament act. Normally by October before election, mid termism is fading as the Prime Minister can go to the country at any time. This time round, we know the election won't be until May 2015 so opinion poll recipients will still be more "mid term" in their responses.
(3) LD vote collapse erodes the advantage the electoral system gives Labour.
Sorry but this is, I think, wishful thinking by OGH. Labour are in deep, deep trouble.0 -
According to tweets and internet postings on social media sites Scotland is now on its way to becoming an independent country. We have some pretty ordinary pollsters who don't seem to get embarrassed by indifferent results time and again but I would back any of them against some sort of twitter analysis.Easterross said:
nope. Didn't mention Nick Palmer and referred to particular local issues. I looked at the profiles of the ones I have spotted and most of their tweets have been about x-Factor, Strictly Come Dancing, football scores etc so definitely not politicos in disguise.another_richard said:These pro-Soubry tweets from non-Tory voters wouldn't be something like this would they:
MichaelGreen: I've always been Labour but Anna Soubry is brilliant # voteconservative
SebastianFox: I'm not a Conservative but Anna Soubry is a much better MP than Nick Palmer was # CameronforPM
If Soubry holds on we are heading for a comfortable tory majority. She has exactly the sort of seat (very small majority, large ex Lib Dem minority) that Labour should pick up without breaking sweat. If Labour support does fall well into the 20s by polling day she may have a chance but overall she probably requires a more favourable scenario than 2010 to hang on.0 -
Hmm. I think it is very easy to see a few positive comments on social media as reflecting widely held views. Often not the case. Ashcroft poll in Broxtowe was pretty clear. Stuff changes of course.Easterross said:
My IT skills do not extend to trawling through tweets from last week. There are increasing numbers of tweets appearing saying "I don't vote for X but s/he is a good constituency MP" Philip Davies gets dozens every day. I follow Anna Soubry so if she retweets such tweets, I see them if they are recent enough. It is possible to work out if someone is genuine or placed. When someone's twitter profile talks about the wife, kids, dog and football team you know it tends to be a genuine "ordinary" person.another_richard said:
Have there ?Easterross said:
Been very interesting in recent days to see tweets appearing proclaiming what a good MP Anna Soubry is, said tweets being from non-Tory voters. I like Nick as a person but really looking forward to seeing her majority increase at the GE to more than 1000.
You wouldn't mind pasting them here would you ?
I must admit to be a little curious as to how you're aware of them and to how you know they're from non-Tory voters.0 -
Pumping more and more cash into an unreformed EU system is simply unacceptable
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11190452/Only-the-spirit-of-Fontainebleau-can-reduce-our-soaring-EU-bill.html
Cameron should link payment of the bill to huge EU reform: capping the budget and getting rid of agricultural subsidies. He could also take the Italians' approach of drawing attention to the EU palaces if Brussels gets difficult.0 -
I follow Anna too and she hasn't retweeted any supporting tweets, ever (to be fair, I don't either - too narcissistic). So I do wonder a bit where you're getting them?Easterross said:
My IT skills do not extend to trawling through tweets from last week. There are increasing numbers of tweets appearing saying "I don't vote for X but s/he is a good constituency MP" Philip Davies gets dozens every day. I follow Anna Soubry so if she retweets such tweets, I see them if they are recent enough. It is possible to work out if someone is genuine or placed. When someone's twitter profile talks about the wife, kids, dog and football team you know it tends to be a genuine "ordinary" person.
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It is when we look at individual seats that it gets hard to see Con holds, never mind gains, as Mike points out in the header.DavidL said:
According to tweets and internet postings on social media sites Scotland is now on its way to becoming an independent country. We have some pretty ordinary pollsters who don't seem to get embarrassed by indifferent results time and again but I would back any of them against some sort of twitter analysis.Easterross said:
nope. Didn't mention Nick Palmer and referred to particular local issues. I looked at the profiles of the ones I have spotted and most of their tweets have been about x-Factor, Strictly Come Dancing, football scores etc so definitely not politicos in disguise.another_richard said:These pro-Soubry tweets from non-Tory voters wouldn't be something like this would they:
MichaelGreen: I've always been Labour but Anna Soubry is brilliant # voteconservative
SebastianFox: I'm not a Conservative but Anna Soubry is a much better MP than Nick Palmer was # CameronforPM
If Soubry holds on we are heading for a comfortable tory majority. She has exactly the sort of seat (very small majority, large ex Lib Dem minority) that Labour should pick up without breaking sweat. If Labour support does fall well into the 20s by polling day she may have a chance but overall she probably requires a more favourable scenario than 2010 to hang on.
To me all the options next May look pretty depressing, seeing Farages braying face in parliament amongst them.
A weak coalition or minority government in thrall to pressure groups and preventing real action on the countries ills seems on the cards. Still, the country has survived worse.0 -
That was a special case for two reasons. Firstly, the decline was tactical rather than real: the Lib Dems and Labour worked closely with the effect of concentrating their vote. That's a one-off process in that once your vote is concentrated, it's far harder to repeat the trick, though they did push it still futher in 2001. Secondly, while the Lib Dem share did drop a little, the collapse in the Tory vote meant that there was a national 5% Con to LD swing, which with most LD targets being Con-held (or, turning it round, most LD-held seats being nominally Con-threatened), was greatly to their advantage.OblitusSumMe said:
1997?david_herdson said:"As is widely known the yellows have a record of outperforming national swing in the seats that they hold, particularly where the existing MP is standing for re-election."
This isn't really true when the Liberals / Lib Dems' performance has taken a hit nationally, although the data is scarce.
In 1970, the Liberal vote fell 1% and their representation halved.
In 1979, the Liberal vote fell 4.5% but they only lost 2 out of 13 seats (one of which was Thorpe, where special circumstances applied).
In 2011, the Lib Dems lost 9 of their 11 constituency seats and saw little compensation in the regional top-ups.
Now, the polls *do* suggest that Lib Dem-held seats are outperforming their national share at the moment and that we can't ignore. However, there does come a tipping point - and the Lib Dems are close to it - where they have hardly any votes left to lose except in their strong areas.0 -
I recall that before 2010 Easterross was confidently predicting that Nick P would lose by 10,000 + votes. For a tory I think his predictions can be a tad on the optimistic side.0
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I think we will see a number of tory gains, particularly from the Lib Dems, but I still think it is likely that they will suffer a net loss of seats. This was Polling Report's list of Tory targets much earlier this year: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/foxinsoxuk said:
It is when we look at individual seats that it gets hard to see Con holds, never mind gains, as Mike points out in the header.DavidL said:
According to tweets and internet postings on social media sites Scotland is now on its way to becoming an independent country. We have some pretty ordinary pollsters who don't seem to get embarrassed by indifferent results time and again but I would back any of them against some sort of twitter analysis.Easterross said:
nope. Didn't mention Nick Palmer and referred to particular local issues. I looked at the profiles of the ones I have spotted and most of their tweets have been about x-Factor, Strictly Come Dancing, football scores etc so definitely not politicos in disguise.another_richard said:These pro-Soubry tweets from non-Tory voters wouldn't be something like this would they:
MichaelGreen: I've always been Labour but Anna Soubry is brilliant # voteconservative
SebastianFox: I'm not a Conservative but Anna Soubry is a much better MP than Nick Palmer was # CameronforPM
If Soubry holds on we are heading for a comfortable tory majority. She has exactly the sort of seat (very small majority, large ex Lib Dem minority) that Labour should pick up without breaking sweat. If Labour support does fall well into the 20s by polling day she may have a chance but overall she probably requires a more favourable scenario than 2010 to hang on.
To me all the options next May look pretty depressing, seeing Farages braying face in parliament amongst them.
A weak coalition or minority government in thrall to pressure groups and preventing real action on the countries ills seems on the cards. Still, the country has survived worse.
I was struggling to find a link to antifrank's analyses which were somewhat more sophisticated. As the Labour lead evaporates it would be worth revisiting some of these.0 -
Here's an idea for Cameron: link payment of the money to scrapping the Strasbourg location for the European Parliament. Then it would draw attention to French unreasonableness.0
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To repeat: I predict Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 23. SNP to out-poll Lib Dems.
Everything I've read here to-day has confirmed this to me, and I'll be surprised if Casino Royale [7.57am] can get attractive odds out of Shadsy...
Worth (re-)emphasizing: past practice of far less use than usual because this has been a coalition government & a fixed-term Parliament. Neither of these may make the slightest difference but for now we just don't know.
Also I would expect UKIP to start making noises (after it's won Rochester) about the seats it's particularly eyeing up, both for candidate name recognition and for activist direction. I would expect them to be paired off (one Labour, one Tory) by region e.g. Boston with Grimsby and so on. We could even help them out! BTW, does anyone think any :Lib Dem seat might be a UKIP target?
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Yes - but we can live in hope:)ThomasNashe said:I recall that before 2010 Easterross was confidently predicting that Nick P would lose by 10,000 + votes. For a tory I think his predictions can be a tad on the optimistic side.
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More short tall stories by Easterross.
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Where would you like it to sit? Berlin? Vienna? (Note: for those who want to quit the EU, such matters are none of your bloody business, OK?)Socrates said:Here's an idea for Cameron: link payment of the money to scrapping the Strasbourg location for the European Parliament. Then it would draw attention to French unreasonableness.
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I do our emails from the Far East at about 5am and am in the office from 7am to about 7pm and regularly work many weekends growing the business outside of he EU.Jonathan said:
What are you going to give up and how are you going to work harder?Financier said:
This is a great illustration of the paucity of Labour thinking which results in policies suitable for the last quarter of the 20th century instead of the 2020s.another_richard said:I had the joy this morning of waking to hear a Labour MP burbling on about Fatcha and pit closures.
The great irony being from her first day as PM to her last Thatcher's government subsidised the mining industry with taxpayers money.
Now how much money did the last Labour government give to coal mining ?
The world has moved on and is moving on at a greater speed and Labour and the unions have to realise that the game has changed markedly and Western Europe is playing (not very well) catch up with Asia.
We have to change our game, work a lot harder, become more aspirational and reward ourselves less - the world does not owe us a living and will not continue to lend us money to enable us to live in the way we have become accustomed. No doubt shouts of Not Fair will arise from the ranks of Labour and the LibDems, but it is either adapt or die.
What do you do?0 -
To stick to just one location in Brussels would be fine, though the East Midlands would be better!Innocent_Abroad said:
Where would you like it to sit? Berlin? Vienna? (Note: for those who want to quit the EU, such matters are none of your bloody business, OK?)Socrates said:Here's an idea for Cameron: link payment of the money to scrapping the Strasbourg location for the European Parliament. Then it would draw attention to French unreasonableness.
0 -
While the betting side of me suspects Nick P will easily regain Broxtowe I would be personally disappointed for Anna Soubry as the brand of conservatism she, Ken Clarke and a small band of others represents is very near to my own beliefs as someone who might be termed an orange booker LD (although I dislike labels). Anna in public appearances seems feisty, a sort of hard wet, and I find it difficult to believe she has already given up on the seat as someone wrote yesterday.0
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Brussels, given that's where MEPs spend three quarters of the year.Innocent_Abroad said:
Where would you like it to sit? Berlin? Vienna? (Note: for those who want to quit the EU, such matters are none of your bloody business, OK?)Socrates said:Here's an idea for Cameron: link payment of the money to scrapping the Strasbourg location for the European Parliament. Then it would draw attention to French unreasonableness.
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link it to general cost saving within the European Parliament. From memory Strasbourg is specified in so many treaties it is far simpler to close Brussels and move everyone to Strasbourg on a permanent basis. Yep its an insane solution but as everyone will hate it, its probably a winner...Socrates said:Here's an idea for Cameron: link payment of the money to scrapping the Strasbourg location for the European Parliament. Then it would draw attention to French unreasonableness.
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Found it: http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/the-conservative-battleground-june-2014.htmlDavidL said:
I think we will see a number of tory gains, particularly from the Lib Dems, but I still think it is likely that they will suffer a net loss of seats. This was Polling Report's list of Tory targets much earlier this year: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/foxinsoxuk said:
It is when we look at individual seats that it gets hard to see Con holds, never mind gains, as Mike points out in the header.DavidL said:
According to tweets and internet postings on social media sites Scotland is now on its way to becoming an independent country. We have some pretty ordinary pollsters who don't seem to get embarrassed by indifferent results time and again but I would back any of them against some sort of twitter analysis.Easterross said:
nope. Didn't mention Nick Palmer and referred to particular local issues. I looked at the profiles of the ones I have spotted and most of their tweets have been about x-Factor, Strictly Come Dancing, football scores etc so definitely not politicos in disguise.another_richard said:These pro-Soubry tweets from non-Tory voters wouldn't be something like this would they:
MichaelGreen: I've always been Labour but Anna Soubry is brilliant # voteconservative
SebastianFox: I'm not a Conservative but Anna Soubry is a much better MP than Nick Palmer was # CameronforPM
If Soubry holds on we are heading for a comfortable tory majority. She has exactly the sort of seat (very small majority, large ex Lib Dem minority) that Labour should pick up without breaking sweat. If Labour support does fall well into the 20s by polling day she may have a chance but overall she probably requires a more favourable scenario than 2010 to hang on.
To me all the options next May look pretty depressing, seeing Farages braying face in parliament amongst them.
A weak coalition or minority government in thrall to pressure groups and preventing real action on the countries ills seems on the cards. Still, the country has survived worse.
I was struggling to find a link to antifrank's analyses which were somewhat more sophisticated. As the Labour lead evaporates it would be worth revisiting some of these.
In June antifrank was noting a shortening of odds in tory held seats. I suspect that this is continuing. OTOH there was at least a hint of lengthening of odds in Tory targets. I suspect that is where the value is at the moment but it needs to be selective.0 -
Have a word with the MP for Clacton on this would you.....NickPalmer said:
I follow Anna too and she hasn't retweeted any supporting tweets, ever (to be fair, I don't either - too narcissistic). So I do wonder a bit where you're getting them?Easterross said:
My IT skills do not extend to trawling through tweets from last week. There are increasing numbers of tweets appearing saying "I don't vote for X but s/he is a good constituency MP" Philip Davies gets dozens every day. I follow Anna Soubry so if she retweets such tweets, I see them if they are recent enough. It is possible to work out if someone is genuine or placed. When someone's twitter profile talks about the wife, kids, dog and football team you know it tends to be a genuine "ordinary" person.0 -
Now we're in genuine crossover territory, who will burst from the blocks? Con or Lab?
He can't do that. Cameron will pay after being forced into a humiliating climbdown.Socrates said:Pumping more and more cash into an unreformed EU system is simply unacceptable
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11190452/Only-the-spirit-of-Fontainebleau-can-reduce-our-soaring-EU-bill.html
Cameron should link payment of the bill to huge EU reform: capping the budget and getting rid of agricultural subsidies. He could also take the Italians' approach of drawing attention to the EU palaces if Brussels gets difficult.0 -
I think a few Tory gains in the West and South and Scotland from the LDs, but losses elsewhere.DavidL said:
I think we will see a number of tory gains, particularly from the Lib Dems, but I still think it is likely that they will suffer a net loss of seats. This was Polling Report's list of Tory targets much earlier this year: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/foxinsoxuk said:
It is when we look at individual seats that it gets hard to see Con holds, never mind gains, as Mike points out in the header.DavidL said:
According to tweets and internet postings on social media sites Scotland is now on its way to becoming an independent country. We have some pretty ordinary pollsters who don't seem to get embarrassed by indifferent results time and again but I would back any of them against some sort of twitter analysis.Easterross said:
nope. Didn't mention Nick Palmer and referred to particular local issues. I looked at the profiles of the ones I have spotted and most of their tweets have been about x-Factor, Strictly Come Dancing, football scores etc so definitely not politicos in disguise.another_richard said:These pro-Soubry tweets from non-Tory voters wouldn't be something like this would they:
MichaelGreen: I've always been Labour but Anna Soubry is brilliant # voteconservative
SebastianFox: I'm not a Conservative but Anna Soubry is a much better MP than Nick Palmer was # CameronforPM
If Soubry holds on we are heading for a comfortable tory majority. She has exactly the sort of seat (very small majority, large ex Lib Dem minority) that Labour should pick up without breaking sweat. If Labour support does fall well into the 20s by polling day she may have a chance but overall she probably requires a more favourable scenario than 2010 to hang on.
To me all the options next May look pretty depressing, seeing Farages braying face in parliament amongst them.
A weak coalition or minority government in thrall to pressure groups and preventing real action on the countries ills seems on the cards. Still, the country has survived worse.
I was struggling to find a link to antifrank's analyses which were somewhat more sophisticated. As the Labour lead evaporates it would be worth revisiting some of these.
NOM and a lot of not terribly effective horsetrading looks most likely, with no party honouring its manifesto. Still, that probably reflects the national will fairly accurately!0 -
We are trying to find the last thread on ComRes poll. It simply does exist on system. Weird0
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IA
"To repeat: I predict Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 23. SNP to out-poll Lib Dems."
Does it gain credibility the more you say it?0 -
I agree. I suspect that the Coalition Agreement, a truly remarkable document which will be studied for years, will be extremely hard to repeat with everyone terrified of what happened to the Lib Dem afterwards.foxinsoxuk said:
I think a few Tory gains in the West and South and Scotland from the LDs, but losses elsewhere.DavidL said:
I think we will see a number of tory gains, particularly from the Lib Dems, but I still think it is likely that they will suffer a net loss of seats. This was Polling Report's list of Tory targets much earlier this year: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/foxinsoxuk said:
It is when we look at individual seats that it gets hard to see Con holds, never mind gains, as Mike points out in the header.DavidL said:
According to tweets and internet postings on social media sites Scotland is now on its way to becoming an independent country. We have some pretty ordinary pollsters who don't seem to get embarrassed by indifferent results time and again but I would back any of them against some sort of twitter analysis.Easterross said:
nope. Didn't mention Nick Palmer and referred to particular local issues. I looked at the profiles of the ones I have spotted and most of their tweets have been about x-Factor, Strictly Come Dancing, football scores etc so definitely not politicos in disguise.another_richard said:These pro-Soubry tweets from non-Tory voters wouldn't be something like this would they:
MichaelGreen: I've always been Labour but Anna Soubry is brilliant # voteconservative
SebastianFox: I'm not a Conservative but Anna Soubry is a much better MP than Nick Palmer was # CameronforPM
If Soubry holds on we are heading for a comfortable tory majority. She has exactly the sort of seat (very small majority, large ex Lib Dem minority) that Labour should pick up without breaking sweat. If Labour support does fall well into the 20s by polling day she may have a chance but overall she probably requires a more favourable scenario than 2010 to hang on.
To me all the options next May look pretty depressing, seeing Farages braying face in parliament amongst them.
A weak coalition or minority government in thrall to pressure groups and preventing real action on the countries ills seems on the cards. Still, the country has survived worse.
I was struggling to find a link to antifrank's analyses which were somewhat more sophisticated. As the Labour lead evaporates it would be worth revisiting some of these.
NOM and a lot of not terribly effective horsetrading looks most likely, with no party honouring its manifesto. Still, that probably reflects the national will fairly accurately!0 -
The big question for UKIP is how lucky do they feel. If they do end up polling 15-20%, as now, then their strategy ought to be to concentrate on a few targets and try to return up to a dozen MPs, which would make them a not insignificant parliamentary presence. If they believe they can push it up to 25-30% by May - not inconceivable but unlikely - then they need to run a whole country strategy (or at least, one that focusses on classes of seat rather than individual ones), and be aiming to take 100+.Innocent_Abroad said:To repeat: I predict Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 23. SNP to out-poll Lib Dems.
Everything I've read here to-day has confirmed this to me, and I'll be surprised if Casino Royale [7.57am] can get attractive odds out of Shadsy...
Worth (re-)emphasizing: past practice of far less use than usual because this has been a coalition government & a fixed-term Parliament. Neither of these may make the slightest difference but for now we just don't know.
Also I would expect UKIP to start making noises (after it's won Rochester) about the seats it's particularly eyeing up, both for candidate name recognition and for activist direction. I would expect them to be paired off (one Labour, one Tory) by region e.g. Boston with Grimsby and so on. We could even help them out! BTW, does anyone think any :Lib Dem seat might be a UKIP target?
Both strategies carry big risks if they go wrong. If they go specific then make a national breakthough, they may still only take a few due to not being able to capitalise on the rising tide; if they go for broke and then don't reach critical velocity, they could end up with next to nothing.0 -
Found last thread which has been re-published with all comments0
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In the absence of a Scotland poll, the YG subsamples (caveats) for Scotland have been quite steady since the IndyRef, with SNP averaging 40.5 and Labour at 27. Before the Ref, both were around 32.0
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I do lots of lovely things, but you said that we all have to work harder and make sacrifices. So the obvious question is what are YOU prepared to do to meet your own request. Or are you somehow special?Financier said:
I do our emails from the Far East at about 5am and am in the office from 7am to about 7pm and regularly work many weekends growing the business outside of he EU.Jonathan said:
What are you going to give up and how are you going to work harder?Financier said:
This is a great illustration of the paucity of Labour thinking which results in policies suitable for the last quarter of the 20th century instead of the 2020s.another_richard said:I had the joy this morning of waking to hear a Labour MP burbling on about Fatcha and pit closures.
The great irony being from her first day as PM to her last Thatcher's government subsidised the mining industry with taxpayers money.
Now how much money did the last Labour government give to coal mining ?
The world has moved on and is moving on at a greater speed and Labour and the unions have to realise that the game has changed markedly and Western Europe is playing (not very well) catch up with Asia.
We have to change our game, work a lot harder, become more aspirational and reward ourselves less - the world does not owe us a living and will not continue to lend us money to enable us to live in the way we have become accustomed. No doubt shouts of Not Fair will arise from the ranks of Labour and the LibDems, but it is either adapt or die.
What do you do?
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The Lib Dem vote has fractured (roughly)TGOHF said:Elephant in the room
2010 : lab plus LD : 53.6
Populus for Indy : 39
Where dey go ?
8% to Labour
4% to Tories
2% to UKIP
1% to Greens (this may change if the Greens can get more momentum)
Since the Labour vote is roughly where it was we can assume
2% Tory --> Labour
6% Labour --> UKIP
1% Labour --> Greens
So the tories should be laughing - but they are down 4 or 5 points so (since LDs have voted 4% Tories) the assumption is
8% Tory --> UKIP
Although more Tories have gone to UKIP, as a percentage of the 2010 Tory vote the figures are closer.
So the crux for betting is: are there hotspots where a significantly greater percentage of Labour voters have switched to UKIP.
And the answer must be: areas where the vast majority of the Labour vote is the traditional blue-collar worker rather than the public sector or the immigrant vote.0 -
For those interested, here was my analysis in April about the chances of Lib Dem incumbency:foxinsoxuk said:
I think a few Tory gains in the West and South and Scotland from the LDs, but losses elsewhere.DavidL said:
I think we will see a number of tory gains, particularly from the Lib Dems, but I still think it is likely that they will suffer a net loss of seats. This was Polling Report's list of Tory targets much earlier this year: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/
I was struggling to find a link to antifrank's analyses which were somewhat more sophisticated. As the Labour lead evaporates it would be worth revisiting some of these.
NOM and a lot of not terribly effective horsetrading looks most likely, with no party honouring its manifesto. Still, that probably reflects the national will fairly accurately!
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-1.html
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-2-lib_24.html
My thoughts have evolved since then, notably in the wake of the Scottish independence referendum and the emergence of the Greens.
But as the Lib Dems' national vote share stays nailed to the floor, the points I make about the Scottish Lib Dems' chances of outperforming uniform national swing become steadily more relevant to the rest of the UK also.0 -
Tim Farron knows the way back to 10% plus for the Lib Dems. Only Clegg stands in his way. Read to end. http://the-tap.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/there-has-never-been-any-case-of.html0
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Not all ICM polls are created equal.Paul_Mid_Beds said:Where Tories are incumbent on average they pulled back 11.67% between October and the Election
Where labour are incumbent on average they pulled back 6% between October and the Election0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Saw the poll on the news last night. 30/30 is bloody low for the big two, and -5 for Labour's not great. The Lamont effect? If so, that might slowly recover as memory of her denunciation of Miliband fades.
Or not, depending how the leadership goes. Will Labour end up speaking with different voices north and south of the border?0 -
The Tories will lose some seats to Labour, who are holding strong with certain strands of their core. In the big Urban marginals Labour will score a few hits.
However they are losing wwc support and it won't come back easily, especially with Miliband as leader. In the East Midlands that could cost Labour some gains, in Broxtowe it will be close but my feeling is Anna will prevail, same for Amber Valley, Nigel Mills I expect to hold on.
If you are looking for a punt on a Conservative gain from Labour, Derby North, a poor quality MP, UKIP biting into the huge estates and a big chunk of the Liberal vote likely to go Tory.
I respect Lordy's polls but too far out yet to call them as gospel.0 -
You do lovely things, are you retired or just modest - We have upped our business development and few staff have a regular weekend off. Nobody has had a pay rise for the last 7 years.Jonathan said:
I do lots of lovely things, but you said that we all have to work harder and make sacrifices. So the obvious question is what are YOU prepared to do to meet your own request. Or are you somehow special?Financier said:
I do our emails from the Far East at about 5am and am in the office from 7am to about 7pm and regularly work many weekends growing the business outside of he EU.Jonathan said:
What are you going to give up and how are you going to work harder?Financier said:
This is a great illustration of the paucity of Labour thinking which results in policies suitable for the last quarter of the 20th century instead of the 2020s.another_richard said:I had the joy this morning of waking to hear a Labour MP burbling on about Fatcha and pit closures.
The great irony being from her first day as PM to her last Thatcher's government subsidised the mining industry with taxpayers money.
Now how much money did the last Labour government give to coal mining ?
The world has moved on and is moving on at a greater speed and Labour and the unions have to realise that the game has changed markedly and Western Europe is playing (not very well) catch up with Asia.
We have to change our game, work a lot harder, become more aspirational and reward ourselves less - the world does not owe us a living and will not continue to lend us money to enable us to live in the way we have become accustomed. No doubt shouts of Not Fair will arise from the ranks of Labour and the LibDems, but it is either adapt or die.
What do you do?
So what are you prepared to do? Please reveal all.0 -
Much appreciated Mike, thank you.MikeSmithson said:Found last thread which has been re-published with all comments
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Oh those heady days when the Lib Dems were polling at 12%!antifrank said:
For those interested, here was my analysis in April about the chances of Lib Dem incumbency:foxinsoxuk said:
I think a few Tory gains in the West and South and Scotland from the LDs, but losses elsewhere.DavidL said:
I think we will see a number of tory gains, particularly from the Lib Dems, but I still think it is likely that they will suffer a net loss of seats. This was Polling Report's list of Tory targets much earlier this year: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/
I was struggling to find a link to antifrank's analyses which were somewhat more sophisticated. As the Labour lead evaporates it would be worth revisiting some of these.
NOM and a lot of not terribly effective horsetrading looks most likely, with no party honouring its manifesto. Still, that probably reflects the national will fairly accurately!
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-1.html
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-2-lib_24.html
My thoughts have evolved since then, notably in the wake of the Scottish independence referendum and the emergence of the Greens.
But as the Lib Dems' national vote share stays nailed to the floor, the points I make about the Scottish Lib Dems' chances of outperforming uniform national swing become steadily more relevant to the rest of the UK also.0 -
A truly astonishing remark from a PR man! See also David Herdson's comment [8.34am] with which I agree wholeheartedly.Roger said:IA
"To repeat: I predict Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 23. SNP to out-poll Lib Dems."
Does it gain credibility the more you say it?
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Decided to write an Early Thoughts piece, on the financial woe afflicting F1. May be a little while, as the situation is complicated.0
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You can't have a leader whose ratings are at -45% without dragging down your vote share eventually.0
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You must have truly spectacular management skills. Or an enormous staff turnover. Or a capacity for being economical with the actualité. Since you have time to post here the rest of us can make a guess...Financier said:
You do lovely things, are you retired or just modest - We have upped our business development and few staff have a regular weekend off. Nobody has had a pay rise for the last 7 years.Jonathan said:
I do lots of lovely things, but you said that we all have to work harder and make sacrifices. So the obvious question is what are YOU prepared to do to meet your own request. Or are you somehow special?Financier said:
I do our emails from the Far East at about 5am and am in the office from 7am to about 7pm and regularly work many weekends growing the business outside of he EU.Jonathan said:
What are you going to give up and how are you going to work harder?Financier said:
This is a great illustration of the paucity of Labour thinking which results in policies suitable for the last quarter of the 20th century instead of the 2020s.another_richard said:I had the joy this morning of waking to hear a Labour MP burbling on about Fatcha and pit closures.
The great irony being from her first day as PM to her last Thatcher's government subsidised the mining industry with taxpayers money.
Now how much money did the last Labour government give to coal mining ?
The world has moved on and is moving on at a greater speed and Labour and the unions have to realise that the game has changed markedly and Western Europe is playing (not very well) catch up with Asia.
We have to change our game, work a lot harder, become more aspirational and reward ourselves less - the world does not owe us a living and will not continue to lend us money to enable us to live in the way we have become accustomed. No doubt shouts of Not Fair will arise from the ranks of Labour and the LibDems, but it is either adapt or die.
What do you do?
So what are you prepared to do? Please reveal all.
0 -
MEMO to self: Be careful when managing site using smartphone while in bed in middle of nightSimonStClare said:
Much appreciated Mike, thank you.MikeSmithson said:Found last thread which has been re-published with all comments
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Mr Dancer, I look forward to that.Morris_Dancer said:Decided to write an Early Thoughts piece, on the financial woe afflicting F1. May be a little while, as the situation is complicated.
I don't know if you saw my post from last night, when I managed to combine my loves of motorsport, civil engineering (esp. tunnelling) and railways. As the company also does CFD, I can probably add computing to the list:
http://www.racecar-engineering.com/news/industry/exclusive-secret-aerodynamic-test-facility-revealed/
It sounds ridiculous, but it's been done before:
http://www.racecar-engineering.com/articles/nascar/the-secrets-of-laurel-hill/0 -
The moment has arrived for the progressives to bring in the cavalry. It's clear from recent polling that Labour's lead is slipping and if nothing is done we could be faced with a second Thatcheite era which would be every bit as unpleasant as the first.
Labour and it's ad agency can now see the whites of the Tory eyes so it's time fire. It need a strategy which is simple powerful and simply understood. But it needs it now. If the Tories pull away it's going to be uphill and very difficult.0 -
No amount of PR, no advertising agency, can overcome the basic problem that only one voter in six sees themselves as left-of-centre.Roger said:The moment has arrived for the progressives to bring in the cavalry. It's clear from recent polling that Labour's lead is slipping and if nothing is done we could be faced with a second Thatcheite era which would be every bit as unpleasant as the first.
Labour and it's ad agency can now see the whites of the Tory eyes so it's time fire. It need a strategy which is simple powerful and simply understood. But it needs it now. If the Tories pull away it's going to be uphill and very difficult.
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Ah, the power of advertising. The problem is that while you can market unknown rubbish as wonderful and get away with it for a while, you can't change deeply-held brand images unless the reality changes too - as with Skoda, say.Roger said:The moment has arrived for the progressives to bring in the cavalry. It's clear from recent polling that Labour's lead is slipping and if nothing is done we could be faced with a second Thatcheite era which would be every bit as unpleasant as the first.
Labour and it's ad agency can now see the whites of the Tory eyes so it's time fire. It need a strategy which is simple powerful and simply understood. But it needs it now. If the Tories pull away it's going to be uphill and very difficult.0
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