My guess: Sunak will wait until 2025 for the election – politicalbetting.com

There is no reason for the Prime Minister to call an early election. Something might turn up, and in the mean time, he is still Prime Minister.

The one caveat is that although Boris favoured winter elections (as Labour voters were less likely to turn out in bad weather) the conventional Tory wisdom has favoured spring or summer. Of course, all this might be a proxy for whatever Lynton Crosby and his acolytes think, but the point is that Rishi might have a view.

Hopefully the Tories will be punished even more, for ruining Christmas 2024 on top of everything else they've done to us since 2010.

Very much doubt it. Apart from the Xmas point, they'd do even worse trying to cling on to power.

Having a January election could be dangerous, could lose additional seats if they do it when everyone is (,even more) skint

I'm coming to the view it's possible. Sunak does hedge, decide slowly and leaving a decision to make itself is in line with that.

On the other hand, if he has 'given up', resigned himself to defeat, that says he goes at the point he's had enough of the charade. Avoiding the LE 24 fallout, which looks like it will be a terrible election round defending the 2021 high point by hiding it under a GE is also a species of avoidance decision you could see Sunak making.

What I don't expect is boldness, any decision will be defensive.

Rachel Riley receiving an MBE for her services to Holocaust education has really upset the leftist anti-Semites on Twitter.

It's quite hilarious.

Pulpstar said:

Having a January election could be dangerous, could lose additional seats if they do it when everyone is (,even more) skint

It's a tough one, isn't it?

Sunak wants to wait as long as possible, just in case something turns up. But on the other hand, waiting until January 2024 (a) looks desperate (which it is), and (b) means that people will be feeling post-Christmas poor.

Personally, I think OGH is onto something here. The temptation to wait another month just in case pictures of Sunak and Savile enjoying tea together shows up will be a very strong one.

Mike could well be right.

I doubt Sunak is much bothered what happens to the Conservative Party and there is little reason to go to the country before he has to other than to save a few seats.

Certainly worth a punt if one is available.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

There is no reason for the Prime Minister to call an early election. Something might turn up, and in the mean time, he is still Prime Minister.

The one caveat is that although Boris favoured winter elections (as Labour voters were less likely to turn out in bad weather) the conventional Tory wisdom has favoured spring or summer. Of course, all this might be a proxy for whatever Lynton Crosby and his acolytes think, but the point is that Rishi might have a view.

I keep repeating this but December 2019 was a one-off. It was the Get Brexit Done election, following a stalemate parliament which was ridiculous and even had a pro-European like me irritated.

Apart from being up against an unelectable anti-semitic trotskyite, the entire raison d'etre of that election was Get Brexit Done.

Hanging on until the end looks desperate. October 2024 must be favourite but tempted by 18.5 for 2023 - at least he could ask for support for his 5 pledges/ 5 vague aspirations (delete to taste) rather than having to admit that he has missed them.

Heathener said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

There is no reason for the Prime Minister to call an early election. Something might turn up, and in the mean time, he is still Prime Minister.

The one caveat is that although Boris favoured winter elections (as Labour voters were less likely to turn out in bad weather) the conventional Tory wisdom has favoured spring or summer. Of course, all this might be a proxy for whatever Lynton Crosby and his acolytes think, but the point is that Rishi might have a view.

I keep repeating this but December 2019 was a one-off. It was the Get Brexit Done election, following a stalemate parliament which was ridiculous and even had a pro-European like me irritated.

Apart from being up against an unelectable anti-semitic trotskyite, the entire raison d'etre of that election was Get Brexit Done.

While all that is true, why would Sunak go to the polls in (say) October 2024 when he can hang on a little longer just in case something comes up?

Human beings are programmed to delay based on nothing more than hope. And - from Sunak's point of view - there might only be a 1% chance that something turns up, but what's the downside of waiting in case it does? Sure a few more seats are likely lost; but many MPs will be losing their jobs anyway, and would appreciate a few more months in the House.

rcs1000 said:

Heathener said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

There is no reason for the Prime Minister to call an early election. Something might turn up, and in the mean time, he is still Prime Minister.

The one caveat is that although Boris favoured winter elections (as Labour voters were less likely to turn out in bad weather) the conventional Tory wisdom has favoured spring or summer. Of course, all this might be a proxy for whatever Lynton Crosby and his acolytes think, but the point is that Rishi might have a view.

I keep repeating this but December 2019 was a one-off. It was the Get Brexit Done election, following a stalemate parliament which was ridiculous and even had a pro-European like me irritated.

Apart from being up against an unelectable anti-semitic trotskyite, the entire raison d'etre of that election was Get Brexit Done.

While all that is true, why would Sunak go to the polls in (say) October 2024 when he can hang on a little longer just in case something comes up?

Because he wants the Conservative Party to perform the least badly it can.

Mr Micawber is best left within the pages of fiction.

ThomasNashe said:

Icarus said:

Hanging on until the end looks desperate. October 2024 must be favourite but tempted by 18.5 for 2023 - at least he could ask for support for his 5 pledges/ 5 vague aspirations (delete to taste) rather than having to admit that he has missed them.

October 2023? That would be the case if we had Ben Stokes as Prime Minister.

Elections in mid winter are risky because of the possibility of extreme weather impacting them . Sunak would also look desperate if he hangs on till January .

TheScreamingEagles said:

He'll go October 31st 2004 or November 7th 2004 to really piss me and other political gamblers off.

He might be running out of reasons to miss PMQs by then!

TheScreamingEagles said:

He'll go October 31st 2004 or November 7th 2004 to really piss me and other political gamblers off.

If he’s invented time travel he might just pull things off.

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

He'll go October 31st 2004 or November 7th 2004 to really piss me and other political gamblers off.

If he’s invented time travel he might just pull things off.

Oops I meant 2024.

I had a feeling you did, but you never know. Sunak has a reputation for being obsessed with implausible maths.

I think he will go for October 2024, but not for that reason. Put simply, it’s the last practical date which wouldn’t totally piss off his few remaining activists.

Long ago I tipped October 2024, and I am sticking with that prediction.

I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: surprised to see Ricciardo back. He's taken de Vries' seat.

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-ricciardo-to-replace-de-vries-at-alphatauri-from-the-hungarian.2yhnzxE6XpSUZwzHfr9rXp.html

At least de Vries hasn’t ’ceased to exist’ as the same magazine said he might the other week.

Fishing said:

I think the precedents of Gordon Brown and John Major are persuasive - if the polls don't turn, he'll hang on as long as he can.

There's no persuasive evidence that any month is better or worse than any other for a particular governing party's support.

So very late 2024 or January 2025 would be my guess.

And one thing we should get over is the idiotic habit of holding elections on a Thursday (apparently because people did that in the 19th century or something).

Thursday's are a sensible day to have elections, but any weekday Mon to Thursday works. Weekdays are when people are at home, not going away. And our long election hours (from early morning until 10pm) means anyone can go to vote either before or after work.

Weekend elections are much more likely to occur while people are away from home.

IanB2 said:

Long ago I tipped October 2024, and I am sticking with that prediction.

Well it is more likely than Jan 2024.

But twice as likely, or ten times, or twenty ?

Nigelb said:

IanB2 said:

Long ago I tipped October 2024, and I am sticking with that prediction.

Well it is more likely than Jan 2024.

But twice as likely, or ten times, or twenty ?

Do you mean Jan 2025? I don't think anyone expects Jan 2024.

Don't panic Tory PBers, Liz Truss has launched the "Growth Commission" and we are, it would seem, £10,000 a year poorer than Americans.

(We were probably only £5000 worse off before Kwarteng's absurd budget.)

Mexicanpete said:

...

SouthamObserver said:

I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.

Is there provision for a Royal Prerogative extension anymore? We are at proxy war with Russia.

Another two years might be handy.

There never was one, was there?

In WWI and WWII a series of Acts extending Parliament were passed.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Mexicanpete said:

...

SouthamObserver said:

I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.

Is there provision for a Royal Prerogative extension anymore? We are at proxy war with Russia.

Another two years might be handy.

There never was one, was there?

In WWI and WWII a series of Acts extending Parliament were passed.

Could we do that again?

The header assumes Sunak is still PM and gets to make the choice

Fishing said:

I think the precedents of Gordon Brown and John Major are persuasive - if the polls don't turn, he'll hang on as long as he can.

There's no persuasive evidence that any month is better or worse than any other for a particular governing party's support.

So very late 2024 or January 2025 would be my guess.

And one thing we should get over is the idiotic habit of holding elections on a Thursday (apparently because people did that in the 19th century or something).

Also James Callaghan.

In fact, what's the counter? When did a PM near certain of losing go to the country any earlier than they absolutely had to?

Carnyx said:

O/T but some very striking photos:

https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2023/jul/12/janine-wiedel-images-of-flaming-1970s-industrial-britain

And a couple of comments caught my eye:

"My father was a die caster at the Birmid in Smethwick and I remember the burn holes in his trousers and shirts from the molten metal.

My nan and my mum both worked at Bullpitts round the corner from the jewellery quarter making Swan kettles, saucepans teapots etc. [...] My mum would spend lots of time taking the swarf out of her hands and fingers each evening.

A brass part on my nan's machine had to be replaced, they presented it to her as she had over many years left imprints in the brass of her grip on it. My brother still has this part."

and

"As for drinking at work, I worked in a foundry. As the youngest on the shop floor I would be sent to the nearest pub with two steel buckets to fill up with mild beer. The gaffers didn't mind because we all only drank mild (a less potent brew) and we soon sweated it out. Thinking back, the conditions were atrocious.....but the camaraderie and the banter was second to none. We thought it a triumph when showers were fitted in the changing room. We always let the lads who had lost fingers or had been badly burned go first in the showers. Etiquette among men considered subhuman by the office staff."

One of my first jobs was in the Black Country, a bit later on in the Eighties, but lots of industrial injuries. I remember a bloke who lost both legs when some sheet steel spilled and took them off.

Miklosvar said:

Heathener said:

rcs1000 said:

Heathener said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

There is no reason for the Prime Minister to call an early election. Something might turn up, and in the mean time, he is still Prime Minister.

The one caveat is that although Boris favoured winter elections (as Labour voters were less likely to turn out in bad weather) the conventional Tory wisdom has favoured spring or summer. Of course, all this might be a proxy for whatever Lynton Crosby and his acolytes think, but the point is that Rishi might have a view.

I keep repeating this but December 2019 was a one-off. It was the Get Brexit Done election, following a stalemate parliament which was ridiculous and even had a pro-European like me irritated.

Apart from being up against an unelectable anti-semitic trotskyite, the entire raison d'etre of that election was Get Brexit Done.

While all that is true, why would Sunak go to the polls in (say) October 2024 when he can hang on a little longer just in case something comes up?

Because he wants the Conservative Party to perform the least badly it can.

Mr Micawber is best left within the pages of fiction.

Why? How do you explain the date of GE 1997 except as an exercise in hanging on in the hope something turns up?

Major didn't hold on until the very very very last minute; that would have been May 22 1997. May 1 (coinciding with county elections) was just the last sensible date. The question is whether January 2025 is at all sensible.

I suspect that the answer is that there's no good date. Go now, and the Conservatives bake in a terrible defeat. Wait, and the newsflow incoming probably makes that defeat worse. There's a chance that something truly brilliant turns up, but the average expectation has to be things continuing to drift down.

rcs1000 said:

Fishing said:

I think the precedents of Gordon Brown and John Major are persuasive - if the polls don't turn, he'll hang on as long as he can.

There's no persuasive evidence that any month is better or worse than any other for a particular governing party's support.

So very late 2024 or January 2025 would be my guess.

And one thing we should get over is the idiotic habit of holding elections on a Thursday (apparently because people did that in the 19th century or something).

Also James Callaghan.

In fact, what's the counter? When did a PM near certain of losing go to the country any earlier than they absolutely had to?

Both Heath and Wilson thought they would win.

I would guess therefore the answer is Balfour in 1905, although technically it was Campbell-Bannerman who called the election as the new PM.

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

IanB2 said:

Long ago I tipped October 2024, and I am sticking with that prediction.

Well it is more likely than Jan 2024.

But twice as likely, or ten times, or twenty ?

Do you mean Jan 2025? I don't think anyone expects Jan 2024.

Yes, I seem to have a case of the TSEs this morning.

Jan 2024 would be more like 2000/1.

Check your footwear. If you see something nasty, seek urgent medical attention. Cases of TSE can rapidly spiral out of control.

In other news:

Our little town has a lot of names based on 'Monkfield' in it, including an artery road, a primary school, a doctor's surgery, woodland etc. This was based on a 'Monkfield Farm' which preexisted the development; I think the original farmhouse is now the dentists.

St Neots, seven miles to the west, has several major housing developments ongoing. A new one is being built to the east of new 'Loves Farm' development, and is being called.... 'Monksfields'.

Which will, in no way, cause any confusion. No siree.

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

Rachel Riley receiving an MBE for her services to Holocaust education has really upset the leftist anti-Semites on Twitter.

It's quite hilarious.

Yes I wandered over to Twitter to see what's trending (actually to see if we have a BBC name yet - we don't) and she was. So I investigated further. Bad move.

Haters gonna hate. Left and right haters are pretty much as awful as each other.

Yes it's despicable and should be called out. I am sure you are very happy Starmer has done so much to root out these people from the Labour Party.

Carnyx said:

Penddu2 said:

It strikes me that the BBC is now the only organisation more protective of sex pests, perverts and rapists than the Catholic Church. Is it the new state religion?

FPT - but I was left wondering about the Metropolitan Police. And the Houses of Parliament. Scratching my head about those being sects, obscure or otherwise.

The C of E and the Church of Scotland replaced the Roman Catholic Church as the British state religions 500 years ago anyway

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

IanB2 said:

Long ago I tipped October 2024, and I am sticking with that prediction.

Well it is more likely than Jan 2024.

But twice as likely, or ten times, or twenty ?

Do you mean Jan 2025? I don't think anyone expects Jan 2024.

Yes, I seem to have a case of the TSEs this morning.

Jan 2024 would be more like 2000/1.

£10k government Christmas present to every UK citizen, followed by a snap election in Jan 2024. That could work.

Heathener said:

Sorry, Mike, but no.

Parliament has to be dissolved no later than 17th December next year, and the final date would have to be 28th January '25. Which means a GE campaign starting the week leading up to Christmas. As @Sandpit points out, January is a month notorious for lack of money, and most people won't have been paid by the 28th which is the last date. It's also for many people the most depressing month of the year.

So, I'm sorry to disappoint, but there won't be a January election, unless Sunak is a Labour plant and wishes to annihilate the Conservative Party.

The election will either be May/June or October. So it's either 10 months or 15 months away. My money would be on October 2024.

No amount of Conservative wishful thinking will stave this off beyond that.

Indeed, even the leadership contest to be Conservative Leader of the Opposition will likely be over by Christmas 2024

BartholomewRoberts said:

Nigelb said:

.

Mexicanpete said:

...

SouthamObserver said:

I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.

Is there provision for a Royal Prerogative extension anymore? We are at proxy war with Russia.

Another two years might be handy.

No.
And even if there were, it wouldn't happen.

In the case of extreme national emergency (not sure what would be extreme enough, but it would have to be something in the order of a nuclear attack), there'd be a national coalition government, and a Parliamentary vote to postpone the election.

In a parallel universe where the FTPA had actually done it's job and May hadn't called an early election (and thus 2019 hadn't happened either) the 2015 Parliament would have expired during COVID lockdown.

Most likely still with Jeremy Corbyn as LOTO.

Does the Civil Contingencies Act contain a clause allowing elections to be postponed? Not that Johnson used the Act, of course, because he didn't seem to know it existed, but May might have done.

HYUFD said:

Indeed, even the leadership contest to be Conservative Leader of the Opposition will likely be over by Christmas 2024

Assuming they have enough seats left to be the official opposition...

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Mexicanpete said:

...

SouthamObserver said:

I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.

Is there provision for a Royal Prerogative extension anymore? We are at proxy war with Russia.

Another two years might be handy.

There never was one, was there?

In WWI and WWII a series of Acts extending Parliament were passed.

'Never' is too strong a word. Until 1668 (I suppose technically 1641) parliaments were called and dismissed at the pleasure of the monarch so elections were irregular. The Triennial Act 1641 stated that there must be elections every three years in England. Ironically, the first parliament elected under it sat for nineteen years. In 1688 one of the clauses under which William of Orange was made King by Parliament was that he would honour the triennial acts.

In 1715 that was changed to every seven years for the whole of Great Britain.

In 1911 it was changed to every five years.

So I suppose you could say the monarch *did* have that power until the Civil War, in law, and until the Orange Revolution, in practice.

Wiser monarchs than Charles I of course tended to exercise that power with restraint.

The King can still force a general election and dissolve Parliament if a PM has refused to hold one after the 5 year term of his government has elapsed

Possibly, although it has never been tested as neither George V nor his son thought to resist Parliament's truce.

But that's also the opposite of the point being made. It was about the prerogative being used to extend parliaments, not terminate them.

HYUFD said:

If all that Sunak cares about is maximising his tenure in No 10 in the history books without ever winning a general election then Jan 2025 would be a good bet.

If he wants to annoy voters however, forcing a general election in freezing January 2025 rather than September or October 2024 would be a good way to do it

Climate change Januaries are not what they once were - the Januaries of the late 70’s and early 80’s were often brutal, and like Dickins, my childhood is full of memories of snowy winters.

From a personal point of view, I’d love the distraction of a January election. Jan can be a tedious month, so for politics geeks it would be like Christmas, all over again.

For the Country, May 2024 would be best. A reset is needed, even if those coming in have few ideas of consequence. At least the faces telling us how shit it all is will change.

turbotubbs said:

At least the faces telling us how shit it all is will change.

If only.

All the Brexiteers who are now whining about how shit their Brexit is will continue to whine about it, even louder...

What is this government trying to do?

We have the utterly doomed Stop the boats bill with the Rwanda option. Doomed, not because it will not pass but because it is a token gesture against the numbers now coming over. The Today program has been doing a series of longer reports about the boats problem in the Med. The pressure building up in Africa from rapidly growing populations and a huge amount of instability is immense. We only get a small secondary wave from this but the idea a policy in this country is going to stop it is frankly ridiculous.

Other than that the government is waiting for and hoping that inflation is going to fall. It will, but probably more slowly than thought by the Bank (again). The fall in inflation will eventually stop the reduction in real term incomes but any positive trend is going to be modest and has a lot of catching up to do after the last 18 months.

The next pledge was to reduce government debt. Not going to happen. Even if he really meant as a share of GDP very unlikely to happen.

And then there is shortening waiting lists in the NHS. Given the industrial unrest in the NHS with the forthcoming doctors' strikes this again looks out of reach.

It is a pretty modest platform for government and yet the scorecard looks unlikely to be a net positive. The paucity of ideas and ambition is palpable.

SouthamObserver said:

If you are in search of positive news, let me give you some. The country around Sidmouth is currently buzzing with bees and butterflies. I think the decision to keep the grass long and let wild flowers grow in so many meadows, combined with recent rain, has brought them out to play. Not having a clue about nature I could be totally wrong. But I do know they are there because I can see them! Maybe it's only round here, but I hope not.

It is good news. There is a definite shift now to try to reverse some of the catastrophic declines in habitats for insects, and it does work. We are nowhere near the 70’s bug splattered windscreens yet though. (Although I wonder if that also relates to more streamlined cars?).

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Mexicanpete said:

...

SouthamObserver said:

I agree with Mike. Sunak will hold on until the law compels him to go to the people. Unless he can find a way to change the law.

Is there provision for a Royal Prerogative extension anymore? We are at proxy war with Russia.

Another two years might be handy.

There never was one, was there?

In WWI and WWII a series of Acts extending Parliament were passed.

'Never' is too strong a word. Until 1668 (I suppose technically 1641) parliaments were called and dismissed at the pleasure of the monarch so elections were irregular. The Triennial Act 1641 stated that there must be elections every three years in England. Ironically, the first parliament elected under it sat for nineteen years. In 1688 one of the clauses under which William of Orange was made King by Parliament was that he would honour the triennial acts.

In 1715 that was changed to every seven years for the whole of Great Britain.

In 1911 it was changed to every five years.

So I suppose you could say the monarch *did* have that power until the Civil War, in law, and until the Orange Revolution, in practice.

Wiser monarchs than Charles I of course tended to exercise that power with restraint.

The King can still force a general election and dissolve Parliament if a PM has refused to hold one after the 5 year term of his government has elapsed

Try learning our constitution.

One happens automatically by law, the King doesn't choose.

The King automatically implements the Parliament Act if the PM hasn't been to see him by January 2025 is the point.

With the end of the FTPA elections can still only be called again by the PM asking the King for one or Parliament voting down the government and not selecting a new PM in their place

Carnyx said:

SouthamObserver said:

If you are in search of positive news, let me give you some. The country around Sidmouth is currently buzzing with bees and butterflies. I think the decision to keep the grass long and let wild flowers grow in so many meadows, combined with recent rain, has brought them out to play. Not having a clue about nature I could be totally wrong. But I do know they are there because I can see them! Maybe it's only round here, but I hope not.

THere's been much more emphasis lately in leaving meadows alone for the early months to let the insects have a chance. Parallel movement in gardening, too: not being anal about one's lawn (let alone replace it with plastic etc). Mrs C has been of that philosophy for decades and our lawnless front garden has been a chaotic mass of flowers since the snowdrops and crocuses - full of bumblebees and hoverflies, and butterflies. In contrast to the sometimes sterile plastic grass and hard core parking spaces elswehere on the same street.

A chaos of wild flowers and grasses is so much nicer than a perfect green lawn, IMO.

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

Penddu2 said:

It strikes me that the BBC is now the only organisation more protective of sex pests, perverts and rapists than the Catholic Church. Is it the new state religion?

FPT - but I was left wondering about the Metropolitan Police. And the Houses of Parliament. Scratching my head about those being sects, obscure or otherwise.

And several political parties.

Doesn't the HoP, er, cover that? But yes, on reflection. Other legislatures are available.