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An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way? – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,469
    edited July 2023
    stodge said:

    Parties like to be in power - the Faustian deals they strike for a taste in power are remarkable to behold.

    The Conservatives will eventually want power again and recognise the route back to that power is to stop chasing a world which no longer exists and start re-engaging with the world as it is.

    Labour, after two terms, will have made its fair share of mistakes and enemies and those wishing to oppose the Government will need a vehicle for that opposition. It COULD be the Liberal Democrats (and nearly was in the Blair years) but it's likely after a second or perhaps third defeat, just as a man who keeps getting knocked out might decide boxing isn't the sport for him, the Conservatives might decide losing and ideological purity isn't as much fun as it seemed a few years earlier.

    Re-designing Conservatism for the mid 21st century is going to be the intellectual challenge - the challenges of climate change, AI and the shifting tectonic plates of global alliances in a world (likely) dominated by the Sino-American conflict in the Pacific will all need thought.

    All these tedious 'oh when will the Tories go back to the centre ground' posts, forgetting Sunak and Hunt already are relatively centrist Tory leaders, yet again completely ignore the economy.

    Yes, if we were in the late 1990s with low inflation, low tax and a growing economy for an incoming Labour government there might be little scope for a rightwing Tory opposition.

    However we are facing the highest inflation since the 1970s, a decade which saw 3 changes of government, as well as frequent strikes. Governments all over the world are unpopular, it is the height of arrogance and complacency for Labour supporters here to think they will be in power for decades. Indeed they might be trailing in the polls within a year of election unless they get a grip on the economy!
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Carnyx said:

    Just imagine the Labour posters. "The Tories want to destroy the last remains of Churchill's statesmanship.,"
    People would just probably use it as an excuse to vote against the government.
    IE Your mortgage has gone up by £1000 per month but the tories want to have a referendum on abolishing human rights, its just altogether the wrong time, the wrong priorities completely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,469

    Terrible Blue Wall polling for the Tories, from the South of England. R&W 2nd July. The lowest Blue Wall voting share for the Conservatives since Sunak became PM.

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-2-july-2023/

    Con 29% (-21, -2)
    LD 25% (-2, +3)
    Lab 36% (+15, -2)
    Reform 5% (+5, uc)
    Green 43% (+3, uc)

    Changes shown in brackets: change v General Election, followed by change since last Red Wall poll (mid June).

    The averages for the LDs and Labour are misleading. The LDs are the clear challengers to the Conservatives in just over half of these seats, Labour being the clear challenger in about two-fifths, with it being unclear in the rest. The Labour and LD votes are already concentrated in the relevant seats and will be even more so now as tactical voting revives. By contrast, the Con vote has to be spread out everywhere to defend every one of these seats.

    Given polling like this, the LDs seem to me to be very good value to be the third largest party at the next GE.

    34% still back Sunak as preferred PM on that bluewall poll
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,046
    edited July 2023
    EPG said:

    You don't have to, but those ones do.

    While he doesn't have the worldly experience and geopolitical leadership skills of a schoolteacher, neither does anybody else, by all their accounts.
    Are you saying that you are perfectly OK with the EU being led by somebody like that?

    Because if so I would advise you to get your moral compass recalibrated.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,731
    HYUFD said:

    All these tedious 'oh when will the Tories go back to the centre ground' posts, forgetting Sunak and Hunt already are relatively centrist Tory leaders yet again completely ignore the economy.

    Yes, if we were in the late 1990s with low inflation, low tax and a growing economy for an incoming Labour government there might be little scope for a rightwing Tory opposition.

    However we are facing the highest inflation since the 1970s, a decade which saw 3 changes of government, as well as frequent strikes. Governments all over the world are unpopular, it is the height of arrogance and complacency for Labour supporters here to think they will be in power for decades. Indeed they might be trailing in the polls within a year of election unless they get a grip on the economy!
    Face it chum. Your partly is down the toilet and flushing it's own chain. It will be a long slow crawl back to electability, and not one via weird culture war stuff from the US right.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,370
    dixiedean said:

    But. As the nurses have shown, folk get fed up of striking pretty soon.
    There won't be any prospect of doctors still striking this time next year.
    The richer the group the more they can afford to strike.

    The greater the difference between what they want and what they are offered then the more incentive to strike.

    And even if the doctors give up this year they haven't gone away and their pay demands will only grow.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,366
    HYUFD said:

    All these tedious 'oh when will the Tories go back to the centre ground' posts, forgetting Sunak and Hunt already are relatively centrist Tory leaders, yet again completely ignore the economy.

    Yes, if we were in the late 1990s with low inflation, low tax and a growing economy for an incoming Labour government there might be little scope for a rightwing Tory opposition.

    However we are facing the highest inflation since the 1970s, a decade which saw 3 changes of government, as well as frequent strikes. Governments all over the world are unpopular, it is the height of arrogance and complacency for Labour supporters here to think they will be in power for decades. Indeed they might be trailing in the polls within a year of election unless they get a grip on the economy!
    When are you going to join Reform?
  • Ally_B1Ally_B1 Posts: 55

    We should resuscitate the discussion on Saturday and see what this week’s troll has to contribute.
    I am very late to this party (thanks to finding it impossible to get a browser to log on correctly from my iPhone or iPad) but in the spirit of giving you a good laugh or something similar, here in Malaysia, where I live but not currently reside, we use metric units for everything BUT floor measurements. My wife is a real estate agent and area is quoted in sq ft. and that causes me no end of amusement when I see sq ft converted to (sq m) which are then quoted to three decimal places in their legal agreements.
    Whilst on this theme I did a Further Maths A Level in the early 70s which was taught by the recently retired Deputy Headmaster of the school I attended. Our text books were in Imperial units so he taught us that (ie foot poundal, ft per sec and so on). Two weeks before the A Level he announced that the exam would be in metric units and proceeded to give us a crash course in the equivalent metric units. I got a grade E, which counted as a bare pass in those days.
    Roll on to my first year at University studying Electrical Engineering and lo and behold the maths we are being taught is what I had leant in the Further Maths A Level. I was dreading this but with a different teacher and a year studying in metric units the outcome was different. Come the exam we were told that to avoid wholescale failure ALL the questions we answered would be marked. So don't just answer 5 out of 8 but do them all and aim for 160%! Well I knew how to answer 6 of them correctly and that became the only time I have ever scored more than 100% in an exam. (Yes, there were quite a few who failed maths that year and who transferred to 'other subjects' rather than drop out).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,731
    edited July 2023
    ydoethur said:

    Are you saying that you are perfectly OK with the EU being led by somebody like that?

    Because if so I would advise you to get your moral compass recalibrated.
    Being pissed and self serving never did Churchill any harm.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,937

    Difficult to tell, there are quite a few credulous PBers on the UFOs are REAL/upside of Truss/upside of Putin/Wokies under the divan bullshit train. Some PB sharp minds were even convinced that Vlad was a goner a couple of weeks ago.
    The thing about PB is I can never predict what some of us are going to have a big panic about.

    I do not absolve myself of this. I could definitely panic about this nuclear power station in Ukraine (Zelensky has just put a video up on twitter about explosives).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,469
    Foxy said:

    Face it chum. Your partly is down the toilet and flushing it's own chain. It will be a long slow crawl back to electability, and not one via weird culture war stuff from the US right.
    No, if Labour put up tax, inflation continues to rise, strikes get worse, interest rates climb further and growth slows I predict the Conservatives will be back ahead in the polls within a year of election defeat. No matter how rightwing their leader
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,866
    stodge said:

    Mrs Stodge in late and seething.

    Hours of disruption on the District and Hammersmith & City lines due to "a faulty train".

    I can't believe in 2023 the mechanisms don't exist to resolve such issues and restore a service.

    A milk tanker overturned on the M6
    caused knock on delays across the NW on Sunday.
    The three Cumbrian RL sides had two delayed kick offs and a complete postponement from an incident which happened at 7 am.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    When are you going to join Reform?
    He's always going on about the need for an English Parliament, contrary to "Conservative" and "Unionist" policy. Wonder which parties cater for that?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,046
    HYUFD said:

    No, if Labour put up tax, inflation continues to rise, strikes get worse, interest rates climb further and growth slows I predict the Conservatives will be back ahead in the polls within a year of election defeat. No matter how rightwing their leader
    Poll leads are not everything.

    Just ask Ed Miliband.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    edited July 2023
    HYUFD said:

    No, if Labour put up tax, inflation continues to rise, strikes get worse, interest rates climb further and growth slows I predict the Conservatives will be back ahead in the polls within a year of election defeat. No matter how rightwing their leader
    Only the first of those is likely and the Tories are doing that anyway.

    It turns out the last election was a good one to lose and the next will be a good one to win I reckon.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,804
    An example of incremental improvement on battery technology.
    A reformulation of existing cathode materials should yield around a 10% increase in performance (and predicted 30% increase in battery longevity).

    LG Chem starts production of ‘single crystal’ battery cathode
    https://www.thelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=4576
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,366
    HYUFD said:

    76% of current Conservative voters voted Leave,
    FAKE Tory HYUFD voted Remain!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,469
    edited July 2023
    ydoethur said:

    Poll leads are not everything.

    Just ask Ed Miliband.
    If there had been a general election in 2012 or 2013 polls showed Ed Miliband would have won it comfortably despite Labour losing power only 2 or 3 years before

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Tories will be at 20% national VI by the end of the year.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,377
    HYUFD said:

    No, if Labour put up tax, inflation continues to rise, strikes get worse, interest rates climb further and growth slows I predict the Conservatives will be back ahead in the polls within a year of election defeat. No matter how rightwing their leader
    The Conservatives led during the 1997-2001 Parliament in the midst of the fuel crisis but were well beaten in the 2001 election.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    HYUFD said:

    If there had been a general election in 2012 polls showed Ed Miliband would have won it comfortably.

    Polls do not show things like that.

    If there had been a general election in 2017 polls showed Mrs May would have won it comfortably.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,469
    edited July 2023
    stodge said:

    The Conservatives led during the 1997-2001 Parliament in the midst of the fuel crisis but were well beaten in the 2001 election.
    Exactly, which shows if the economy turns poor so swiftly can the polls no matter how right or leftwing the opposition.

    Had the fuel crisis not been resolved by the 2001 election it would have been much closer
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Farooq said:

    Heh. 0.001 square metres is about the size of a pencil. Definitely a case of overprecision.
    Is that a new pencil or and old one?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,731
    .

    Tories will be at 20% national VI by the end of the year.

    So, you are optimistic for them?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    HYUFD said:

    34% still back Sunak as preferred PM on that bluewall poll
    So what? Hardly relevant given that the question was only asked in terms of Sunak v Starmer and yet in more than half of those seats the challenge for the Conservatives comes from the LDs.

    To put that 34% in better context, it's the lowest rating for Sunak since R&W began their Blue Wall polling.

    And meanwhile, Sunak's approval rating in the same poll is -8, and Starmer's +5.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Has PB opined on the frankly lunatic idea to close all ticket offices?

    This government should be put down, like a rabid dog.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Has PB opined on the frankly lunatic idea to close all ticket offices?

    This government should be put down, like a rabid dog.

    Railway ones? In England. Shit if you are old, confused, etc. etc.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jul/04/labour-criticises-rushed-plans-shut-hundreds-rail-ticket-offices-england
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,731

    And even if the doctors give up this year they haven't gone away and their pay demands will only grow.
    They are not giving up, particularly with the refusal of the government to meet and negotiate.
    In my union (HCSA) today the Juniors voted 96% for a further 6 months of strikes.

    https://www.hcsa.com/7551.aspx

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,151
    Carnyx said:

    Railway ones? In England. Shit if you are old, confused, etc. etc.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jul/04/labour-criticises-rushed-plans-shut-hundreds-rail-ticket-offices-england
    Ironically, that's basically the government's remaining core vote.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Ironically, that's basically the government's remaining core vote.
    So it is. What's the point of privatisting to the old fashioned railways? You can't have "London and North Eastern Railway" and "Great Western Railway" etc without at least ticket offices, even if the helpful porters and Passenger Luggage in Advance are no longer with us.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,731

    Has PB opined on the frankly lunatic idea to close all ticket offices?

    This government should be put down, like a rabid dog.

    It all adds to the impression of the gradual collapse of British public institutions. Not a great back drop for a government wanting to win an election, or at least mitigate a comprehensive defeat.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,370

    Only the first of those is likely and the Tories are doing that anyway.

    It turns out the last election was a good one to lose and the next will be a good one to win I reckon.
    The underlying problems will not disappear - rather they're likely to worsen.

    But the magic money tree will have gone - the next government is going to need skill and luck, likely a lot of skill and a lot of luck.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Ironically, that's basically the government's remaining core vote.
    ... and just checked the DM. The comments best and worst liked don't presage good results fro the Tories if they carry on with this policy.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12263117/Nearly-rail-station-ticket-office-England-set-close-three-years.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,366

    Has PB opined on the frankly lunatic idea to close all ticket offices?

    This government should be put down, like a rabid dog.

    Of course, heartily agree with you!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,370
    Foxy said:

    They are not giving up, particularly with the refusal of the government to meet and negotiate.
    In my union (HCSA) today the Juniors voted 96% for a further 6 months of strikes.

    https://www.hcsa.com/7551.aspx

    So what happens ?

    1) Strikes for year after year

    2) PM Starmer gives the demanded pay rise - causing equivalent demands throughout the public sector

    3) The doctors accept a minimal pay rise from PM Starmer

    There seems to be a lot of wishful thinking on PB that it will be the third but it seems the most unlikely to me.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,937
    Carnyx said:

    ... and just checked the DM. The comments best and worst liked don't presage good results fro the Tories if they carry on with this policy.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12263117/Nearly-rail-station-ticket-office-England-set-close-three-years.html
    Stuff like this is why so many old people are lonely.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,470

    Has PB opined on the frankly lunatic idea to close all ticket offices?

    This government should be put down, like a rabid dog.

    In theory it's cost saving - until the disability act waves its head and points out the scale of the problem it creates when you can't guarantee where a member of staff will always be...
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,551
    Foxy said:

    It all adds to the impression of the gradual collapse of British public institutions. Not a great back drop for a government wanting to win an election, or at least mitigate a comprehensive defeat.
    It sometimes feels like the current Conservative Party look at every positive aspect of current Britain and think to themselves "How can we f**k this up?".

    It's quite bizarre.

    They've got themselves a few women leaders, first S.Asian Pm etc etc etc, and then... "Why not shoot cow poo at the Cornish whilst we burn the aspirational youth?!?!?"
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,551
    Foxy said:

    Being pissed and self serving never did Churchill any harm.
    Phew. I was worried about an inevitable stroke and/or heart attack until now.
  • TimS said:

    Is her name Fanny Penn?
    She had walked over from here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fan_y_Big
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,370
    ohnotnow said:

    It sometimes feels like the current Conservative Party look at every positive aspect of current Britain and think to themselves "How can we f**k this up?".

    It's quite bizarre.

    They've got themselves a few women leaders, first S.Asian Pm etc etc etc, and then... "Why not shoot cow poo at the Cornish whilst we burn the aspirational youth?!?!?"
    Too much of a management consultant mentality.

    I've said before the country needs leaders who have worn ppe not studied PPE.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    You have to think that a party like the Conservatives will be in government again eventually. The relevant questions ought to be when and after what compromises?

    And yet...

    Every other time a party has really gone off the reservation in recent years (Labour under Foot or Corbyn, Conservatives under IDS) there has been enough ballast to stop it completely disconnecting from reality, and enough of a remnant (since it's been Bible Reference Day on PB) for the party to regrow in an electorally useful way.

    This time... I'm not so sure. I want to think that the Conservative Wet tradition can regrow, but I fear that it's proved to be just too wet. My fear is that the triumph of Suella Braverman over the harmless Flick Drummond in the Battle for Fareham is a sign of where the Conservative Party is. And by the time it realises it needs saving, there won't be much left to save.

    Please, pesuade me that I'm wrong.
    The reality is that whether wets or drys win out in the Tories, we won't see Trump/DeSantis-style semi-fascism in the UK. The US has a long standing and broadly-based racial angst from the history of slavery and segregation. It's deep-seated Protestant revival culture also embedded a culture of being the Chosen Few against the evil others and also a mindset that salvation from all wrongs exists just around the corner. And of course the overall religiosity creates a less rationalist culture, open to all sorts of conspiracy theories.

    The UK on the other hand inherits a culture founded on the compromise of the Elizabethan Settlement. And because the British Empire's racism was primarily something practice in the colonies and not at home, cultural racism never really embedded here as a major, long-lasting trend.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Sorry to moan but can we not discuss something important?

    Ukrainian intelligence stating that Russian forces are evacuating from Enerhodar and even Melitopol (really?). Major concern they are going to do something crazy at the NPP. I cannot understand what the west is doing. There was no serious response to the blowing of the Kahkovka dam, even a lack of attribution to Russia! Many of the leading analysts also seem to be avoiding the subject. Am I missing something here?
  • HYUFD said:

    76% of current Conservative voters voted Leave, they would not stick with a party that pushed Rejoin.

    They would defect to Reform where 15% of 2019 Tory voters have already gone now Sunak leads the party
    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/u1brypjh6p/TheTimes_VI_230628_W.pdf
    Oh piss off.

    I voted Leave. You did not.

    You would vote Reform. I would not.

    QED by your logic of everyone in a class of voter being the same, voting Reform is the preserve of Remain Tories.
  • PeckPeck Posts: 517
    WillG said:

    The reality is that whether wets or drys win out in the Tories, we won't see Trump/DeSantis-style semi-fascism in the UK. The US has a long standing and broadly-based racial angst from the history of slavery and segregation. It's deep-seated Protestant revival culture also embedded a culture of being the Chosen Few against the evil others and also a mindset that salvation from all wrongs exists just around the corner. And of course the overall religiosity creates a less rationalist culture, open to all sorts of conspiracy theories.

    The UK on the other hand inherits a culture founded on the compromise of the Elizabethan Settlement. And because the British Empire's racism was primarily something practice in the colonies and not at home, cultural racism never really embedded here as a major, long-lasting trend.
    You write as if the USA which had slavery on its home ground until the 1860s is the only country that has a chance of going semi-fascist in the near future. Italy? France? Several countries went full-on fascist last century too that had never had much slavery.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Has PB opined on the frankly lunatic idea to close all ticket offices?

    This government should be put down, like a rabid dog.

    Sir and/or Madam, your unfortunate outburst is grossly unfair to Old Yaller and his like.

    Who were and are lovable critters, compared with the junkyard curs currently "making their" mark in HMG.
  • WillG said:

    The reality is that whether wets or drys win out in the Tories, we won't see Trump/DeSantis-style semi-fascism in the UK. The US has a long standing and broadly-based racial angst from the history of slavery and segregation. It's deep-seated Protestant revival culture also embedded a culture of being the Chosen Few against the evil others and also a mindset that salvation from all wrongs exists just around the corner. And of course the overall religiosity creates a less rationalist culture, open to all sorts of conspiracy theories.

    The UK on the other hand inherits a culture founded on the compromise of the Elizabethan Settlement. And because the British Empire's racism was primarily something practice in the colonies and not at home, cultural racism never really embedded here as a major, long-lasting trend.
    No it never did, but sadly you do see American-style racism being imported by some, even on this site.

    The internet is erasing the line of traditional British politics and bleeding some American cultural problems into this country. Ironically often by those claiming and failing to represent "British values".
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,511
    Explanatory thread on ticket office closures from Seat61:

    https://twitter.com/seatsixtyone/status/1676301915871760384
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,409
    This kind of discourse will not lead anywhere good for the US:

    https://twitter.com/benandjerrys/status/1676214289353572352

    This 4th of July, it's high time we recognize that the US exists on stolen Indigenous land and commit to returning it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,409

    Sorry to moan but can we not discuss something important?

    Ukrainian intelligence stating that Russian forces are evacuating from Enerhodar and even Melitopol (really?). Major concern they are going to do something crazy at the NPP. I cannot understand what the west is doing. There was no serious response to the blowing of the Kahkovka dam, even a lack of attribution to Russia! Many of the leading analysts also seem to be avoiding the subject. Am I missing something here?

    For all his flaws, Boris Johnson would be a better person to have leading the UK at this time than Rishi Sunak. The West needs someone less passive than Joe Biden.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,469

    This kind of discourse will not lead anywhere good for the US:

    https://twitter.com/benandjerrys/status/1676214289353572352

    This 4th of July, it's high time we recognize that the US exists on stolen Indigenous land and commit to returning it.

    I don't think Europe has room to take in all Americans of European ancestry if all US land is returned to Native Indians who are only a small percentage of the US population now anyway
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,469
    edited July 2023
    Farooq said:

    Don't misunderstand, I agree with williamglenn, but...
    why would you assume that changing ownership would mean expulsions?
    As all US land was originally owned by Native Indians, non Indian US citizens would lose all property rights if restored to them absolutely
  • This kind of discourse will not lead anywhere good for the US:

    https://twitter.com/benandjerrys/status/1676214289353572352

    This 4th of July, it's high time we recognize that the US exists on stolen Indigenous land and commit to returning it.

    Because pretending the past never happened has led to such good places for America?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,370

    No it never did, but sadly you do see American-style racism being imported by some, even on this site.

    The internet is erasing the line of traditional British politics and bleeding some American cultural problems into this country. Ironically often by those claiming and failing to represent "British values".
    One of the more bizarre things is people cosplaying they're Americans and trying to bring American problems into a UK context.

    Its not as if we haven't got enough issues of our own people can discuss.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,469

    Oh piss off.

    I voted Leave. You did not.

    You would vote Reform. I would not.

    QED by your logic of everyone in a class of voter being the same, voting Reform is the preserve of Remain Tories.
    Ha ha ha ha ha.

    You are the man who DID vote for Farage in the 2019 European elections when he got 30% of the vote while I still voted for May's Tories even when they got just 9% of the vote.

    What utter hypocrisy!
  • HYUFD said:

    Ha ha ha ha ha.

    You are the man who DID vote for Farage in the 2019 European elections when he got 30% of the vote while I still voted for May's Tories even when they got just 9% of the vote.

    What utter hypocrisy!
    I don't know how to break it down so it gets through your thick skull but the 2019 European Parliament elections were not a real election, and was not electing anyone to represent us in Westminster Parliament. How many of the people "elected" in 2019 are still serving their term they were elected to? It was a protest election, at a vote that should never have happened as we should have left already.

    That doesn't mean people who voted to protest in 2019 would vote Reform in 2024 now that Brexit is done.

    You are just again showing you can't understand the reason people actually voted the way they did. There is no great swell of people just eagerly waiting to vote for Reform, it is not happening.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,469

    I don't know how to break it down so it gets through your thick skull but the 2019 European Parliament elections were not a real election, and was not electing anyone to represent us in Westminster Parliament. How many of the people "elected" in 2019 are still serving their term they were elected to? It was a protest election, at a vote that should never have happened as we should have left already.

    That doesn't mean people who voted to protest in 2019 would vote Reform in 2024 now that Brexit is done.

    You are just again showing you can't understand the reason people actually voted the way they did. There is no great swell of people just eagerly waiting to vote for Reform, it is not happening.
    Clearly your even thicker skull is unable to scroll down and see the original comments which were about whether the Tories should push to rejoin the EU.

    A policy I said would see a Farage resurgence and most likely see even you vote for Farage again!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,511
    edited July 2023

    This kind of discourse will not lead anywhere good for the US:

    https://twitter.com/benandjerrys/status/1676214289353572352

    This 4th of July, it's high time we recognize that the US exists on stolen Indigenous land and commit to returning it.

    Canada went through the looking glass on that years ago:

    https://native-land.ca/resources/territory-acknowledgement/

    I was at a conference where each canadian speaker read out a "land acknowledgment" before starting their talk. It was all us foreigners could do not to snigger.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,845
    Farooq said:

    For the first time, a men's football team in the English league has a female manager. Hint: I've got their badge as my avatar.

    Owned by Daily Mail Bond villain, Labour Party donor and climate activist Dale Vince. They'll never let you back into the Conservative Party now!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    The USA was a rapacious empire from at least 1812.
    The Trail of Tears is a shameful stain on the nation’s history.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,511
    Farooq said:

    That's 100% you projecting. I've witnesses similar acknowledgements - it happens in Australia too - and never come across anyone reacting as though it was funny.
    Oh no, we talked about it at lunch. Brits and Americans and French. If you think that makes us horrible people, fine, but it happened.
  • HYUFD said:

    Clearly your even thicker skull is unable to scroll down and see the original comments which were about whether the Tories should push to rejoin the EU.

    A policy I said would see a Farage resurgence and most likely see even you vote for Farage again!
    No, it would not. That's what you don't understand. 🤦‍♂️

    Brexit is done now. If there's ever a rejoin campaign, that can and should be debated on its own merits at that time. The mandate of 23/6/16 was fulfilled on 31/01/20 when the UK left the EU. That's it, its done now, history.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,099
    Just put £20 on Ons Jabeur to win Wimbledon at 13/1. I just get the feeling it might be her year this year.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.200957123
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242

    Sorry to moan but can we not discuss something important?

    Ukrainian intelligence stating that Russian forces are evacuating from Enerhodar and even Melitopol (really?). Major concern they are going to do something crazy at the NPP. I cannot understand what the west is doing. There was no serious response to the blowing of the Kahkovka dam, even a lack of attribution to Russia! Many of the leading analysts also seem to be avoiding the subject. Am I missing something here?

    It's no doubt an amazingly delicate situation as far as world powers are concerned. Not only us muggins don't really know what to do, they don't either.

    But given the pretty obvious liklihood the dam was Russia's doing, and the potential to do even worse, I really do hope the powers that be are doing something, even if just to respond fully the next time something inevitably happens where Russia does something particularly despicable!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,409
    HYUFD said:

    Clearly your even thicker skull is unable to scroll down and see the original comments which were about whether the Tories should push to rejoin the EU.

    A policy I said would see a Farage resurgence and most likely see even you vote for Farage again!
    What if Farage is the Nixon in this scenario and changes his mind on the EU?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    Farooq said:

    That's 100% you projecting. I've witnesses similar acknowledgements - it happens in Australia too - and never come across anyone reacting as though it was funny.
    That seems quite likely, though carnforth might retort that might not you be the one who was projecting and thus not seen something similar.
  • carnforth said:

    Canada went through the looking glass on that years ago:

    https://native-land.ca/resources/territory-acknowledgement/

    I was at a conference where each canadian speaker read out a "land acknowledgment" before starting their talk. It was all us foreigners could do not to snigger.
    Canada, like Australia which does similar, has far better and healthier racial relations than America does by engaging with this stuff and learning from it, rather than trying to pretend the past was all fantastic and that only troublemakers want to acknowledge any issues.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,099
    edited July 2023

    Has PB opined on the frankly lunatic idea to close all ticket offices?

    This government should be put down, like a rabid dog.

    It might be more cost-effective to close all ticket offices but that doesn't mean it's the right thing to do. People like to have a bit of human contact sometimes, even if it isn't strictly necessary.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    HYUFD said:

    34% still back Sunak as preferred PM on that bluewall poll
    You think only 34% backing him in the Blue Wall, by any loose definition the sort of southern rural seats that the party absolutely dominates in, is good news?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,242
    Farooq said:

    Nothing in that says that Turkey can't be persuaded to accept Sweden's membership.
    Quite. Given unanimity is required and Turkey is in no rush whatsoever, they presumably think they can finagle a very large amount of persuasion to head their way.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,409
    On the nuclear power station false flag, the question is what is Russia's motive. There are probably only two: a nasty scorched-earth policy, in which case we can expect it to be followed by a withdrawal from part of the territory they are occupying. The second possibility is to give them a pretext to threaten the use of nuclear weapons more directly in 'retaliation'.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,001
    Big betting post from me. Sound a Klaxon.

    There’s no questioning Biden’s mental capacity, when he can clearly see how much better Daisy will be in the NATO job than our baldy - who’s handicapped by being both a soldier and popular politician.

    something has quietly crept up on UK politics with a big betting implication, I expect a header on this any second. Will baldy go for Tory leader now? He’s got con home and the membership onboard. He should be betting favourite shouldn’t he?

    Let’s be blunt here. Straight after that election defeat, the Tories can do so much worse than rally around Wallace.

    Under another leader they could go down to ideological places, distancing the party and brand from so much of the electorate left struggling to find the Tories in their niche private coves, the Tories could spend all the next parliamentary term looking factionally divided, and go into the late twenties election with an economic policy which falls apart within days of the campaign starting.

    Under Wallace they could form a cabinet from across the wings and factions of the party, unite around traditional conservative policies, and concentrate on a solid economic offering going into the election.

    At this moment Wallace has to be a price for leader to quickly get on before it tightens?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,001
    kle4 said:

    You think only 34% backing him in the Blue Wall, by any loose definition the sort of southern rural seats that the party absolutely dominates in, is good news?
    The key take out for me is Labour down and Lib Dem’s up - that by my psephological reading is scary for the Tories as it suggests tactical voting firming up to get the Tory out.

    These blue wall polls are quite weird. Was Blair ever this popular and Labour ever this popular in blue wall when in power? If not then our only conclusion is Brexit has changed the electoral map of the country? Certainly it suggests more than enough voters there not scared of Starmer or Labour, the only question now, as so many of these seats are Lib Dem not Labour targets, so much of the local government gone Lib Dem since Boris got Brexit done, can the LLG work in such a way to cause more of a Tory bloodbath than even poor polling suggests?

    Yes Lib Dem’s making hay here helps them become third party with all its privileges once again. But it also means a very low return of Tory MPs to Westminster. And even worse than that, if Lib Dem’s hit 50+ MPs again, that’s incumbency bonus, it’s a fire wall preventing a quick Tory return to power.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,001
    Jonathan said:

    Saw Sunak’s committee appearance today. Good grief, it was bad. The Tories need to find another leader.

    I noticed Mike floated the idea in a header of Penny Mourdant becoming leader before the next election as it would result in a better election result than if Sunak led them into it. If, as well as becoming PM, Penny replaced Braverman for a moderate trustworthy Home Secretary then the Tories would definitely get a better election result than they are currently going to get.

    Penny is miles yards and inches more human and in touch than Sunak. Sunak is going to be a vote losing disaster in an election campaign.

    The Tories should do it. They should replace Sunak with Penny.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 734
    edited July 2023
    The thing about railways is that while they* use Miles and Chains as a positional reference system to identify the nominal location of where you are on the rail network - but actual location is measured on a grid coordinate system measured in m/mm and every physical measurement at that point is taken in meters/mm.

    * East Coast Main Line plus HS1 & HS2 use Km and m as their reference system - it is only the older lines that still use miles/chains.

    There is a similar system used in road building where the centreline of the road is called its 'chainage' except it is is measured in km and m. Take a close look at any major road construction site and you will see survey posts with markings saying things like 23+450 meaning you are at km 23 plus 450m.

    Chains used to be an accurate measurement device in the days before modern survey instruments - nobody has used them for maybe 100 years (?) - but even today a surveyors assistant is called a chain boy.

    Nothing that requires precision in the real world is ever measured in imperial.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 734
    The government missed a trick in the 1970s by not adopting nominal metric measures - eg a Pinte would be 500ml, a Pounde would be 500g. People could then continue to use common measures in everyday shopping while actually using the metric system.

    The French do this to a certain extent using colloquial terms such as une livre (pound) of butter (actually 500g) or un demi (half) of beer (500ml).
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 734
    edited July 2023
    Even the American dominated oil & gas industry does this - pipe sizes are often referred to by its nominal inch size and pound rating - but this is just shorthand. Everything is physically measured in mm , bar etc.

    Metric rant over
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,569

    Is that a new pencil or and old one?
    You’re missing the point

    You need to sharpen up
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,569
    Foxy said:

    They are not giving up, particularly with the refusal of the government to meet and negotiate.
    In my union (HCSA) today the Juniors voted 96% for a further 6 months of strikes.

    https://www.hcsa.com/7551.aspx

    When one side is unreasonable and intransigent you don’t meet to negotiate
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    dixiedean said:

    That was the situation in BC in the 80's.
    Well. The state monopoly shops anyways.
    There were only 4 in Greater Victoria. For about a quarter of a million people.
    They weren't big either. Selection no better than your average supermarket here.
    It’s like that out here, although they do let you walk around the shop - and they started doing delivery during the pandemic!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,804
    edited July 2023
    carnforth said:

    Canada went through the looking glass on that years ago:

    https://native-land.ca/resources/territory-acknowledgement/

    I was at a conference where each canadian speaker read out a "land acknowledgment" before starting their talk. It was all us foreigners could do not to snigger.
    Hilarious.
    You're aware this practice only finally stopped in the last quarter century ?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Indian_residential_school_system

    Mass Grave of Indigenous Children Reported in Canada
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/28/world/canada/kamloops-mass-grave-residential-schools.html

    The question of what of weight to place on historical injustices is fraught, contentious. But acknowledgment of wrongs which still affect present day communities is surely the absolute minimum obligation of society ?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,321

    I noticed Mike floated the idea in a header of Penny Mourdant becoming leader before the next election as it would result in a better election result than if Sunak led them into it. If, as well as becoming PM, Penny replaced Braverman for a moderate trustworthy Home Secretary then the Tories would definitely get a better election result than they are currently going to get.

    Penny is miles yards and inches more human and in touch than Sunak. Sunak is going to be a vote losing disaster in an election campaign.

    The Tories should do it. They should replace Sunak with Penny.
    The risk is that a sixth Conservative Prime Minister in such a short period finally implodes the credibility of the party even with its core vote.

    Furthermore, even if one believed Penny Mordaunt to be the best possible leader for the Tories, which is a far from settled question, the calculations about the coming defeat are already being made- hence the exodus of MPs, and also certain MPs who now expect to lose at the next GE making plans to establish/resume lucrative non-Parliamentary careers during what they hope will be the interregnum.

    Sunak can not turn it around, and neither can anyone else. The reality is that any new leader would serve briefly as PM and then have to resign the leadership after the inevitable GE defeat. Indeed the backlash at yet another leadership change could risk sending the party into a death spiral an might lead to irresistible demands for an immediate GE.

    So the risk calculations are better for any new leader and for the Tory party itself if they take the leadership from the departing Sunak after the GE and start with a clean slate. All this assumes that Sunak would go quietly, but "imperial purple makes the best burial sheet", so he may decide to resist the pressure, and any civil war would be equally fatal for the sickly child of Tory re-election hopes.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651

    Big betting post from me. Sound a Klaxon.

    There’s no questioning Biden’s mental capacity, when he can clearly see how much better Daisy will be in the NATO job than our baldy - who’s handicapped by being both a soldier and popular politician.

    something has quietly crept up on UK politics with a big betting implication, I expect a header on this any second. Will baldy go for Tory leader now? He’s got con home and the membership onboard. He should be betting favourite shouldn’t he?

    Let’s be blunt here. Straight after that election defeat, the Tories can do so much worse than rally around Wallace.

    Under another leader they could go down to ideological places, distancing the party and brand from so much of the electorate left struggling to find the Tories in their niche private coves, the Tories could spend all the next parliamentary term looking factionally divided, and go into the late twenties election with an economic policy which falls apart within days of the campaign starting.

    Under Wallace they could form a cabinet from across the wings and factions of the party, unite around traditional conservative policies, and concentrate on a solid economic offering going into the election.

    At this moment Wallace has to be a price for leader to quickly get on before it tightens?

    I do feel bad for him not getting the NATO job though. Officers of the Netherlands armed forces won’t be constantly acknowledging his presence so he won’t get those “Dutch Salutes” you keep banging on about.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,929

    Boris's rallying cry to his Telegraph readers - 'Let's turn it into the heaviest suicide note in history' - was one of his better efforts I thought.
    Johnson's bon mots were things that made you laugh on first hearing but were mostly forgotten the next morning. No comparison with his hero whose words you heard once and remembered for a lifetime
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,929
    Cicero said:

    The risk is that a sixth Conservative Prime Minister in such a short period finally implodes the credibility of the party even with its core vote.

    Furthermore, even if one believed Penny Mordaunt to be the best possible leader for the Tories, which is a far from settled question, the calculations about the coming defeat are already being made- hence the exodus of MPs, and also certain MPs who now expect to lose at the next GE making plans to establish/resume lucrative non-Parliamentary careers during what they hope will be the interregnum.

    Sunak can not turn it around, and neither can anyone else. The reality is that any new leader would serve briefly as PM and then have to resign the leadership after the inevitable GE defeat. Indeed the backlash at yet another leadership change could risk sending the party into a death spiral an might lead to irresistible demands for an immediate GE.

    So the risk calculations are better for any new leader and for the Tory party itself if they take the leadership from the departing Sunak after the GE and start with a clean slate. All this assumes that Sunak would go quietly, but "imperial purple makes the best burial sheet", so he may decide to resist the pressure, and any civil war would be equally fatal for the sickly child of Tory re-election hopes.
    Yes, save Penny for the rebuilding, once Sunak has lost and HY's nutty colleagues have exhausted whatever utterly unelectable successors they have to work through before sanity returns.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,731

    When one side is unreasonable and intransigent you don’t meet to negotiate
    The government is being unreasonable, and the BMA have set no preconditions on talks.

    The government refuses to meet with the unions while industrial action is scheduled, though the law requires 2 weeks notice of intended strike action.

    By ignoring and undermining the independent pay board, the only option left is negotiating with the unions, yet the government refuses to do so.

    The strikes will therefore continue monthly.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,537
    A bit of twitter ramping on Zaporzhizia overnight.

    The wind direction was due to switch from Easterly to North Westerly yesterday, and remains broadly Northerly, i.e. away from Russia, for several days.

    Some of this may be the bots provoking normals to echo their points, but it's a concern, for sure, that the timing is now.

    Should we take this Twitter trend seriously today?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,731

    Big betting post from me. Sound a Klaxon.

    There’s no questioning Biden’s mental capacity, when he can clearly see how much better Daisy will be in the NATO job than our baldy - who’s handicapped by being both a soldier and popular politician.

    something has quietly crept up on UK politics with a big betting implication, I expect a header on this any second. Will baldy go for Tory leader now? He’s got con home and the membership onboard. He should be betting favourite shouldn’t he?

    Let’s be blunt here. Straight after that election defeat, the Tories can do so much worse than rally around Wallace.

    Under another leader they could go down to ideological places, distancing the party and brand from so much of the electorate left struggling to find the Tories in their niche private coves, the Tories could spend all the next parliamentary term looking factionally divided, and go into the late twenties election with an economic policy which falls apart within days of the campaign starting.

    Under Wallace they could form a cabinet from across the wings and factions of the party, unite around traditional conservative policies, and concentrate on a solid economic offering going into the election.

    At this moment Wallace has to be a price for leader to quickly get on before it tightens?

    Wallace may be popular on Conhome, but I do wonder why. He is a charisma free nonentity without any real hinterland in the party. Probably a better choice than the vile Braverman, but little else to suggest that he can revive the zombie party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,469
    kle4 said:

    You think only 34% backing him in the Blue Wall, by any loose definition the sort of southern rural seats that the party absolutely dominates in, is good news?
    The Blue Wall in this case is actually Remain or soft Leave Tory seats, not rural seats with bigger Leave votes
This discussion has been closed.