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An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way? – politicalbetting.com
An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way? – politicalbetting.com
We are getting a lot of reports at the moment about sitting Tory MPs announcing that they won’t be seeking re-election at the general election.
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However I have more respect for those who will go down with the ship and stand again even if they face likely defeat, that includes IDS, or those willing to serve as MPs on the opposition benches and continue to serve their constituents and hold the government to account. Those rushing off to seek a directorship or lobbyist post asap as soon as the election is called may be doing better for their careers but it is the former group who should have the most respect
Another problem is it makes it harder to herd them, what can whips threaten them with? Not that Rishi is bringing anything faintly controversial to Tory’s to a vote or making any attempt to properly govern the country.
And we have 12-18 months of this still to look forward to.
Tomorrow as he is at the 75th NHS celebration in Westminster Hall and next week at a NATO summit
Fair doos to both him and Lyons for batting through pain.
Wish he was standing down.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/04/frontline-report-ukraine-advances-1-5-km-near-bakhmut-taking-one-of-two-main-russian-fortifications-near-the-city/
1. Lied about what is really needed
2. Let in huge numbers without appropriate additional infrastructure
3. Failed by their own promises & metrics.
That it'll be their strongest area most likely says plenty about their failures everywhere
Education
Policing
The economy
The health service
Infrastructure renewal
Integrity in public life.
The EU.
Where they’ve failed far more spectacularly.
As an example, Polling report has Penny Mourdant safe. It’s needs a 17% con to lab swing to remove her from a post election leadership contest, identical to what done for Portillo in 97. But if we factor in willingness of Lib Dem’s are greens to vote tactically, are there enough votes there for Tories to lose the seat?
Extrapolating this example to seat totals, today July 2023 polling report has Tories getting as high as 189 seats - is this just uniform swing based on current polls with no tactical voting at all? The gap between Tory to Labour could close to single digits and the Tories get less than 189.
Utter tosh, but a better story than they can tell in other areas. Where the story is fundamentally "yes, we burned it, what are you going to do about it?"
Well, Luke warm at best.
Her seat was also Labour from 1997 to 2010
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=354249
...Samsung Biologics said that one of the two contracts is its largest ever for a single contract. The company will produce biosimilar products under these contracts at its facility known as Plant 4 in Incheon's Songdo District, which has the world's largest production capacity at 240,000 liters per year.
The contracts with Pfizer are worth $193 million and $704 million, respectively. Pfizer previously inked a deal with Samsung Biologics for a $183 million contract manufacturing order in March, which was increased later to $193 million, Samsung Biologics said. The $704 million is a new order, which is the largest ever for a single contract. ..
He went up from there to Bethel, and while he was going up on the way, some small boys came out of the city and jeered at him, saying, “Go up, you baldhead! Go up, you baldhead!” And he turned around, and when he saw them, he cursed them in the name of the Lord. And two she-bears came out of the woods and tore forty-two of the boys.
Why would all the Tory MPs be standing down? They can't be bothered with opposition? Seems like a lack of moral fibre if they aren't prepared to fight for their seats. If they lose so be it. Where are the Portillos of the future going to come from?
Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin
Never make fun of men who are losing their hair.
That's a French tankie.
But here on PB we should be looking at that 189 based solely on uniform national swing and suspecting that’s really sub 150 Tory MPs shouldn’t we?
Ben Chu
@BenChu_
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...
Ben Chu
@BenChu_
·
1h
...The Bloomberg article suggests this aggregate boost to UK household incomes from rate rises could be one of the reasons inflation is proving hard to tame here - i.e. the rate rises are *helping* households more than they're *hurting* and *supporting* consumption..
"So will voters’ views of the Biden economy eventually reflect the good news? Or did the inflation shock of 2021-22 establish a narrative of Biden as a poor economic manager that has become too deeply entrenched — both in the public consciousness and in the news media — to be dislodged even as the economy rapidly improves?"
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/03/opinion/biden-economy-inflation-unemployment.html
One of the great things about the military is they can make such statements with the utmost seriousness and without any fear of misinterpretation.
*Just possible some senior orficers and ratings were standing by her already, but I'm not sure if that happened at that stage, let alone for mere corvettes.
PS They didn't put ships' names on tallies, ie cap ribbons, in WW1 or WW2 for security reasons, either.
Ah, my kepi, thank you
Wealthy people used this extra handout to help heat their swimming pools. The governments Splurged money and Greedinflation of rip off Britain is what caused secondary inflation here, and Germany who copied us, where in Spain it’s less than 2% inflation.
The British government now trying to take the splurged money back out of peoples hands by using interest rates, whilst turning a blind eye to the greed inflation from those who fund their party coffers.
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
1h
People always forget that there are always more savers than borrowers.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico
https://www.chars-francais.net/2015/index.php/liste-chronologique/des-origines-a-1930?task=view&id=35
Though one of the varieties I'm growing is in fact Melon-B.
Weighed against that is the Loss of Office Payment they'd get if they were defeated, but if I remember rightly that's not especially generous.
That's not a tank. This is a tank.
Of course higher rates always help some and hurt others. The reason this should still slow the economy overall is that borrowers have (almost by definition) a higher marginal propensity to consume and so their reduction in spending outweighs the savers' increase. A high weight of fixed mortgages is probably slowing the transmission mechanism right now, though.
What is happening is that the Russians have setup dense minefields in front of their defence lines.
The Ukrainian need to clear the mines, under fire. This they are doing, often with western provided special armoured vehicles. Giant Viper type systems are apparently being used a lot.
All this limits their advances to breaking through a minefield and taking the position behind it. They then need to rearm and prepare for the next assault.
This is why we are only seeing a limited number of units being involved - they are holding back the majority of their forces to (probably) exploit the breakthrough, when it reaches open country.
The Russians seem to be holding back a reserve to counter such a break out.
https://youtu.be/lfFEkH4Hzzc
Remember too many LD voters in the local elections will vote Conservative in the general election when faced with the risk of a Labour government increasing their taxes rather than just a LD led council
https://twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1676214328532271104
BREAKING: @MhairiBlack
tells @maitlis
she is stepping down as an MP at the next general election.
She says Westminster is a “toxic workplace” that has taken its toll on her "body and mind".
NEW: The SNP's Mhairi Black tells
@TheNewsAgents
she is stepping down at the next election.
That means two people who not so long ago were the youngest MP in Parliament — first Chloe Smith, then Mhairi Black — are both leaving in 2024.
I've seen some bleak shit in my time but that Bradley stuck in a minefield video was a tough watch and shows just how difficult any type of manoeuvring is. Hence, crimson drenched stalemate. #winninghere #overbyxmas #wheresthechallengers
https://twitter.com/Porter_Anderson/status/1675189165946699778
@MarkHertling to @sarasidnerCNN : "For anyone in the West saying, 'This is going too slowly,' my response is, 'It's a lot harder than it looks.' I contend the #Ukrainian forces are doing a good job on a large front. They haven't committed yet, they're trying to find holes."
Note, NATO wouldn't even attempt such a manoeuvre without air domination.
And this (if accurate) is very much not how WWI tended to go.
...Each such raid was immediately followed by an infantry assault that completely cleared and secured positions.
The assaults on the eastern bank of the canal were extremely successful because Ukrainians managed to advance by up to 1.5 km towards Klishchiivka, slowly penetrating the Russian rear...
We're expecting Ukraine to win this with one hand behind their back.
'Char-dy' = 'Tank-ie'.
Tough crowd today.
Undoubtedly, some of it will be to do with major problems their party is facing. But it also isn't obvious that being an MP is the pinnacle of an SNP politician's political career, and it will be interesting to see which of those leaving pop up as MSP candidates in 2026.
There will also be the odd by-election arising from the departure of the odd constituency MP. However, the presence of the party system reduces the by-election opportunities (because gaps are filled, usually, from the first vacancy of the party in question).