An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way? – politicalbetting.com

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An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way? – politicalbetting.com

We are getting a lot of reports at the moment about sitting Tory MPs announcing that they won’t be seeking re-election at the general election.

Read the full story here

MikeSmithson

Test

malcolmg

Hope you are well on way to 100% recovery Mike

HYUFD

As Luntz said on current polls any Tory MP with a majority under 15,000 is likely gone at the next general election. Hence a lot of Tory MPs standing down. That gap may close but likely still many face defeat if running again.

However I have more respect for those who will go down with the ship and stand again even if they face likely defeat, that includes IDS, or those willing to serve as MPs on the opposition benches and continue to serve their constituents and hold the government to account. Those rushing off to seek a directorship or lobbyist post asap as soon as the election is called may be doing better for their careers but it is the former group who should have the most respect

MoonRabbit

“A problem with a fair number of MPs not deciding to carry on is that the Tories are likely to lose the benefit of an incumbency bonus thus making the Tory challenge that bit harder.”

Another problem is it makes it harder to herd them, what can whips threaten them with? Not that Rishi is bringing anything faintly controversial to Tory’s to a vote or making any attempt to properly govern the country.

ydoethur

What’s really disappointing from all points of view is it’s not necessarily the dross they’ve accumulated going either.

viewcode

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Stuartinromford

Another manifestation of the Every Man For Themselves mentality you get at the fag end of a government. See also the New Party Conservatives launch yesterday.

And we have 12-18 months of this still to look forward to.

ydoethur

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Big_G_NorthWales

Seems Sunak is missing the next 2 PMQs

Tomorrow as he is at the 75th NHS celebration in Westminster Hall and next week at a NATO summit

Stuartinromford

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Though not even those who are pessimistic on how quickly the Conservatives can return to electability can think they are headed for forty years in the wilderness.

RandallFlagg

Peck said:

I don't find charts of this kind fascinating at all. They're a load of cobblers. Most people are rubbish at determining their reasons for intending to vote this way or the other in accordance with a half-arsed list of options that's eerily reminiscent of Jorge Luis Borges's Celestial Emporium of Benevolent Knowledge, which categorises all animals as belonging to one of the following groups:

those belonging to the Emperor
embalmed ones
trained ones
suckling pigs
mermaids (or sirens)
fabled ones
stray dogs
those included in this classification
those that tremble as if they were mad
innumerable ones
those drawn with a very fine camel hair brush
et cetera
those that have just broken the vase
those that from afar look like flies

I mean seriously do Tory voters put "the environment" at almost the same level of importance as pensions, whereas Labour voters class it as more important? Must make sure Tesco's don't supply free plastic bags even if this means screw my pension!

The election will be immigration versus health, possibly with a stirred-in dollop of a mixture of English nationalism with the Scottish question. But primarily immigration versus health. This kind of election is always about crowd psychology, which is always about emotion not intellect. Many people have given up hope for achieving non-"waiting" status where medical attention is concerned (whatever their mouths may say), but a lot of them remain racist and they get an emotional kick out of racism almost every day. That's the main difference between the two issues.

So the Tories will probably be the largest party, indeed they will probably win a majority, and the interesting volatility won't be near a red wall or a blue wall (what old-fashioned talk that is) - it will be in Scotland, and, since the Tories can't openly say "Vote SNP" or even "If you don't want to vote Tory, then vote SNP because SNP are better than Labour", they're going to have to push English nationalism in my opinion. And yes they may well drop Sunak. He's rubbish at campaigning, he hasn't got the common touch even to the extent that e.g. Cameron or TMay or JMajor had it, he has little charisma, and if the Tories are going to lose (which they aren't) they might as well lose under someone else because only a nutter would believe that Sunak who married so much money is cut out for a job as LOTO.

As for Rwanda, a friend opined to me that the Tories are leaving it very late, but I disagree entirely. That the Supreme Court will decide on the government's appeal only in several months' time plays nicely for the Tories. That's when the "European" side to this will also be publicised. (It hasn't been much, yet, for most of the population anyway.) In the winter and spring it will be brought home to the electorate very forcefully that Europe, together with judges who care so much about "human rights", are knifing Britain in the back: this is the far right nationalist message of our time.

Hello Nadine. When do you plan on stop squatting and resign from parliament?

Miklosvar

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

ydoethur

Stuartinromford said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Though not even those who are pessimistic on how quickly the Conservatives can return to electability can think they are headed for forty years in the wilderness.

I dunno. Some of us might take the final parting as Red, sea?

OldKingCole

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Seems Sunak is missing the next 2 PMQs

Tomorrow as he is at the 75th NHS celebration in Westminster Hall and next week at a NATO summit

Well, it’ll give Rayner a chance to shine!

ydoethur

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

It’s just how we Acts.

Nigelb

(FPT).

Flatlander said:

viewcode said:

Dura_Ace said:

viewcode said:

eek said:

Cookie said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Not a fan of Meta, but this will be interesting Meta's Twitter alternative, Threads, will be released on Thursday in the United States and on Friday for the rest of the world.
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1676017094893383680

@Nigelb, I pointed this out via a Mastodon tweet last night https://mstdn.social/@YourAnonRiots/110652924710786409

"Threads"? Really? You would have thought that word would have negative connotations for anything futuristic.

The fact it has a problem in the UK won't have been picked up elsewhere....

Wasn't there an American finance guy who wanted to call his product "nonces" and got quite surprised at the comments section?

The USN LPD USS Ponce also experienced mysterious outbreaks of mirth from alliance partners until its regretful decommissioning in 2016.

HMS Pansy, HMS Spanker, HMS Virile, HMS Teaser, HMS Tickler, HMS Thruster, HMS Thrasher, HMS Fairy, HMS Flirt, HMS Cockchafer...

Cockchafer (aka Melolontha melolontha) is an annoying insect pest and a perfectly good name. No worse than Mosquito.

Honest.

Also known as doodlebugs, so not ideal nomenclature for the RN.

Pulpstar

On reflection Pope is a slightly bigger loss than I noted on the previous thread. His 3 can be disregarded as he obviously made it with a crocked shoulder, which brings his average up to 29.
Fair doos to both him and Lyons for batting through pain.

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Seems Sunak is missing the next 2 PMQs

Tomorrow as he is at the 75th NHS celebration in Westminster Hall and next week at a NATO summit

Well, it’ll give Rayner a chance to shine!

I hope she spanks Dowden into the middle of next week.

Wish he was standing down.

viewcode

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

Nigelb

Significant tactical gain round Bakhmut.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/04/frontline-report-ukraine-advances-1-5-km-near-bakhmut-taking-one-of-two-main-russian-fortifications-near-the-city/

ydoethur

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

It’s a good Job we all know our Bibles.

Pulpstar

RandallFlagg said:

Peck said:

I don't find charts of this kind fascinating at all. They're a load of cobblers. Most people are rubbish at determining their reasons for intending to vote this way or the other in accordance with a half-arsed list of options that's eerily reminiscent of Jorge Luis Borges's Celestial Emporium of Benevolent Knowledge, which categorises all animals as belonging to one of the following groups:

those belonging to the Emperor
embalmed ones
trained ones
suckling pigs
mermaids (or sirens)
fabled ones
stray dogs
those included in this classification
those that tremble as if they were mad
innumerable ones
those drawn with a very fine camel hair brush
et cetera
those that have just broken the vase
those that from afar look like flies

I mean seriously do Tory voters put "the environment" at almost the same level of importance as pensions, whereas Labour voters class it as more important? Must make sure Tesco's don't supply free plastic bags even if this means screw my pension!

The election will be immigration versus health, possibly with a stirred-in dollop of a mixture of English nationalism with the Scottish question. But primarily immigration versus health. This kind of election is always about crowd psychology, which is always about emotion not intellect. Many people have given up hope for achieving non-"waiting" status where medical attention is concerned (whatever their mouths may say), but a lot of them remain racist and they get an emotional kick out of racism almost every day. That's the main difference between the two issues.

So the Tories will probably be the largest party, indeed they will probably win a majority, and the interesting volatility won't be near a red wall or a blue wall (what old-fashioned talk that is) - it will be in Scotland, and, since the Tories can't openly say "Vote SNP" or even "If you don't want to vote Tory, then vote SNP because SNP are better than Labour", they're going to have to push English nationalism in my opinion. And yes they may well drop Sunak. He's rubbish at campaigning, he hasn't got the common touch even to the extent that e.g. Cameron or TMay or JMajor had it, he has little charisma, and if the Tories are going to lose (which they aren't) they might as well lose under someone else because only a nutter would believe that Sunak who married so much money is cut out for a job as LOTO.

As for Rwanda, a friend opined to me that the Tories are leaving it very late, but I disagree entirely. That the Supreme Court will decide on the government's appeal only in several months' time plays nicely for the Tories. That's when the "European" side to this will also be publicised. (It hasn't been much, yet, for most of the population anyway.) In the winter and spring it will be brought home to the electorate very forcefully that Europe, together with judges who care so much about "human rights", are knifing Britain in the back: this is the far right nationalist message of our time.

Hello Nadine. When do you plan on stop squatting and resign from parliament?

Do the conservatives really want it to be about immigration - an area where they've
1. Lied about what is really needed
2. Let in huge numbers without appropriate additional infrastructure
3. Failed by their own promises & metrics.

That it'll be their strongest area most likely says plenty about their failures everywhere

ydoethur

Pulpstar said:

RandallFlagg said:

Peck said:

I don't find charts of this kind fascinating at all. They're a load of cobblers. Most people are rubbish at determining their reasons for intending to vote this way or the other in accordance with a half-arsed list of options that's eerily reminiscent of Jorge Luis Borges's Celestial Emporium of Benevolent Knowledge, which categorises all animals as belonging to one of the following groups:

those belonging to the Emperor
embalmed ones
trained ones
suckling pigs
mermaids (or sirens)
fabled ones
stray dogs
those included in this classification
those that tremble as if they were mad
innumerable ones
those drawn with a very fine camel hair brush
et cetera
those that have just broken the vase
those that from afar look like flies

I mean seriously do Tory voters put "the environment" at almost the same level of importance as pensions, whereas Labour voters class it as more important? Must make sure Tesco's don't supply free plastic bags even if this means screw my pension!

The election will be immigration versus health, possibly with a stirred-in dollop of a mixture of English nationalism with the Scottish question. But primarily immigration versus health. This kind of election is always about crowd psychology, which is always about emotion not intellect. Many people have given up hope for achieving non-"waiting" status where medical attention is concerned (whatever their mouths may say), but a lot of them remain racist and they get an emotional kick out of racism almost every day. That's the main difference between the two issues.

So the Tories will probably be the largest party, indeed they will probably win a majority, and the interesting volatility won't be near a red wall or a blue wall (what old-fashioned talk that is) - it will be in Scotland, and, since the Tories can't openly say "Vote SNP" or even "If you don't want to vote Tory, then vote SNP because SNP are better than Labour", they're going to have to push English nationalism in my opinion. And yes they may well drop Sunak. He's rubbish at campaigning, he hasn't got the common touch even to the extent that e.g. Cameron or TMay or JMajor had it, he has little charisma, and if the Tories are going to lose (which they aren't) they might as well lose under someone else because only a nutter would believe that Sunak who married so much money is cut out for a job as LOTO.

As for Rwanda, a friend opined to me that the Tories are leaving it very late, but I disagree entirely. That the Supreme Court will decide on the government's appeal only in several months' time plays nicely for the Tories. That's when the "European" side to this will also be publicised. (It hasn't been much, yet, for most of the population anyway.) In the winter and spring it will be brought home to the electorate very forcefully that Europe, together with judges who care so much about "human rights", are knifing Britain in the back: this is the far right nationalist message of our time.

Hello Nadine. When do you plan on stop squatting and resign from parliament?

Do the conservatives really want it to be about immigration - an area where they've
1. Lied about what is really needed
2. Let in huge numbers without appropriate additional infrastructure
3. Failed by their own promises & metrics.

Better that than:

Education
Policing
The economy
The health service
Infrastructure renewal
Integrity in public life.
The EU.

Where they’ve failed far more spectacularly.

turbotubbs

Pulpstar said:

On reflection Pope is a slightly bigger loss than I noted on the previous thread. His 3 can be disregarded as he obviously made it with a crocked shoulder, which brings his average up to 29.
Fair doos to both him and Lyons for batting through pain.

He also got a belter of a delivery that would have got many batsmen out.

Nigelb

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

Good Job.

MoonRabbit

HYUFD said:

As Luntz said on current polls any Tory MP with a majority under 15,000 is likely gone at the next general election. Hence a lot of Tory MPs standing down. That gap may close but likely still many face defeat if running again.

However I have more respect for those who will go down with the ship and stand again even if they face likely defeat, that includes IDS, or those willing to serve as MPs on the opposition benches and continue to serve their constituents and hold the government to account. Those rushing off to seek a directorship or lobbyist post asap as soon as the election is called may be doing better for their careers but it is the former group who should have the most respect

The problem with saying such things HY, as you often do, is how much is a prediction based just on uniform con to Lab swing nationally? But the feature right now is we are likely to get more of a “get the Tories out” tactical vote in the General Election next May than there even was in 1997.

As an example, Polling report has Penny Mourdant safe. It’s needs a 17% con to lab swing to remove her from a post election leadership contest, identical to what done for Portillo in 97. But if we factor in willingness of Lib Dem’s are greens to vote tactically, are there enough votes there for Tories to lose the seat?



Extrapolating this example to seat totals, today July 2023 polling report has Tories getting as high as 189 seats - is this just uniform swing based on current polls with no tactical voting at all? The gap between Tory to Labour could close to single digits and the Tories get less than 189.

Stuartinromford

ydoethur said:

Pulpstar said:

RandallFlagg said:

Peck said:

I don't find charts of this kind fascinating at all. They're a load of cobblers. Most people are rubbish at determining their reasons for intending to vote this way or the other in accordance with a half-arsed list of options that's eerily reminiscent of Jorge Luis Borges's Celestial Emporium of Benevolent Knowledge, which categorises all animals as belonging to one of the following groups:

those belonging to the Emperor
embalmed ones
trained ones
suckling pigs
mermaids (or sirens)
fabled ones
stray dogs
those included in this classification
those that tremble as if they were mad
innumerable ones
those drawn with a very fine camel hair brush
et cetera
those that have just broken the vase
those that from afar look like flies

I mean seriously do Tory voters put "the environment" at almost the same level of importance as pensions, whereas Labour voters class it as more important? Must make sure Tesco's don't supply free plastic bags even if this means screw my pension!

The election will be immigration versus health, possibly with a stirred-in dollop of a mixture of English nationalism with the Scottish question. But primarily immigration versus health. This kind of election is always about crowd psychology, which is always about emotion not intellect. Many people have given up hope for achieving non-"waiting" status where medical attention is concerned (whatever their mouths may say), but a lot of them remain racist and they get an emotional kick out of racism almost every day. That's the main difference between the two issues.

So the Tories will probably be the largest party, indeed they will probably win a majority, and the interesting volatility won't be near a red wall or a blue wall (what old-fashioned talk that is) - it will be in Scotland, and, since the Tories can't openly say "Vote SNP" or even "If you don't want to vote Tory, then vote SNP because SNP are better than Labour", they're going to have to push English nationalism in my opinion. And yes they may well drop Sunak. He's rubbish at campaigning, he hasn't got the common touch even to the extent that e.g. Cameron or TMay or JMajor had it, he has little charisma, and if the Tories are going to lose (which they aren't) they might as well lose under someone else because only a nutter would believe that Sunak who married so much money is cut out for a job as LOTO.

As for Rwanda, a friend opined to me that the Tories are leaving it very late, but I disagree entirely. That the Supreme Court will decide on the government's appeal only in several months' time plays nicely for the Tories. That's when the "European" side to this will also be publicised. (It hasn't been much, yet, for most of the population anyway.) In the winter and spring it will be brought home to the electorate very forcefully that Europe, together with judges who care so much about "human rights", are knifing Britain in the back: this is the far right nationalist message of our time.

Hello Nadine. When do you plan on stop squatting and resign from parliament?

Do the conservatives really want it to be about immigration - an area where they've
1. Lied about what is really needed
2. Let in huge numbers without appropriate additional infrastructure
3. Failed by their own promises & metrics.

Better that than:

Education
Policing
The economy
The health service
Infrastructure renewal
Integrity in public life.
The EU.

Where they’ve failed far more spectacularly.

And immigration has the superficially plausible scapegoat of Human Rights Judges and the even more superficially plausible solution of "vote for us and we'll abolish them".

Utter tosh, but a better story than they can tell in other areas. Where the story is fundamentally "yes, we burned it, what are you going to do about it?"

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

It’s a good Job we all know our Bibles.

Your Wisdom is proverbial.

Cicero

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

It’s a good Job we all know our Bibles.

Any more Bible puns? Mark my words, there will be trouble.

Nigelb

Cicero said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

It’s a good Job we all know our Bibles.

Any more Bible puns? Mark my words, there will be trouble.

Lamentable.

Well, Luke warm at best.

HYUFD

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

As Luntz said on current polls any Tory MP with a majority under 15,000 is likely gone at the next general election. Hence a lot of Tory MPs standing down. That gap may close but likely still many face defeat if running again.

However I have more respect for those who will go down with the ship and stand again even if they face likely defeat, that includes IDS, or those willing to serve as MPs on the opposition benches and continue to serve their constituents and hold the government to account. Those rushing off to seek a directorship or lobbyist post asap as soon as the election is called may be doing better for their careers but it is the former group who should have the most respect

The problem with saying such things HY, as you often do, is how much is a prediction based just on uniform con to Lab swing nationally? But the feature right now is we are likely to get more of a “get the Tories out” tactical vote in the General Election next May than there even was in 1997.

As an example, Polling report has Penny Mourdant safe. It’s needs a 17% con to lab swing to remove her from a post election leadership contest, identical to what done for Portillo in 97. But if we factor in willingness of Lib Dem’s are greens to vote tactically, are there enough votes there for Tories to lose the seat?



Extrapolating this example to seat totals, today July 2023 polling report has Tories getting as high as 189 seats - is this just uniform swing based on current polls with no tactical voting at all? The gap between Tory to Labour could close to single digits and the Tories get less than 189.

Mordaunt's majority is 15,780, so exactly on the border of the Tory seats with majorities of 15,000 or less Luntz says will be lost on current polls.

Her seat was also Labour from 1997 to 2010

ydoethur

Cicero said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

It’s a good Job we all know our Bibles.

Any more Bible puns? Mark my words, there will be trouble.

We’ve gone on a Torah the scriptures.

Stuartinromford

Nigelb said:

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

Good Job.

The problem for the Conservatives is how many of them are looking to Enoch for their Wisdom.

Nigelb

S Korea making strides in the pharmaceutical industry.

https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=354249
...Samsung Biologics said that one of the two contracts is its largest ever for a single contract. The company will produce biosimilar products under these contracts at its facility known as Plant 4 in Incheon's Songdo District, which has the world's largest production capacity at 240,000 liters per year.

The contracts with Pfizer are worth $193 million and $704 million, respectively. Pfizer previously inked a deal with Samsung Biologics for a $183 million contract manufacturing order in March, which was increased later to $193 million, Samsung Biologics said. The $704 million is a new order, which is the largest ever for a single contract. ..

Chris

Nigelb said:

Significant tactical gain round Bakhmut.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/04/frontline-report-ukraine-advances-1-5-km-near-bakhmut-taking-one-of-two-main-russian-fortifications-near-the-city/

It says the Ukrainians took the Russians by surprise and penetrated deeply into their rear. This must be a very painful situation for Putin.

Carnyx

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

Good Job.

The problem for the Conservatives is how many of them are looking to Enoch for their Wisdom.

And that they are heading for the wilderness.

ydoethur

Carnyx said:

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

Good Job.

The problem for the Conservatives is how many of them are looking to Enoch for their Wisdom.

And that they are heading for the wilderness.

I won't be voting for them. With their incompetence they've shown us a Sign, I ma' just follow it.

Carnyx

Nigelb said:

(FPT).

Flatlander said:

viewcode said:

Dura_Ace said:

viewcode said:

eek said:

Cookie said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Not a fan of Meta, but this will be interesting Meta's Twitter alternative, Threads, will be released on Thursday in the United States and on Friday for the rest of the world.
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1676017094893383680

@Nigelb, I pointed this out via a Mastodon tweet last night https://mstdn.social/@YourAnonRiots/110652924710786409

"Threads"? Really? You would have thought that word would have negative connotations for anything futuristic.

The fact it has a problem in the UK won't have been picked up elsewhere....

Wasn't there an American finance guy who wanted to call his product "nonces" and got quite surprised at the comments section?

The USN LPD USS Ponce also experienced mysterious outbreaks of mirth from alliance partners until its regretful decommissioning in 2016.

HMS Pansy, HMS Spanker, HMS Virile, HMS Teaser, HMS Tickler, HMS Thruster, HMS Thrasher, HMS Fairy, HMS Flirt, HMS Cockchafer...

Cockchafer (aka Melolontha melolontha) is an annoying insect pest and a perfectly good name. No worse than Mosquito.

Honest.

Also known as doodlebugs, so not ideal nomenclature for the RN.

HMS Cockchafer would have been one of the Insect class gunboats, though there were also the Fly class such as BLackfly and Butterfly ...

MoonRabbit

Cicero said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

It’s a good Job we all know our Bibles.

Any more Bible puns? Mark my words, there will be trouble.

Or summon the She Bears.

He went up from there to Bethel, and while he was going up on the way, some small boys came out of the city and jeered at him, saying, “Go up, you baldhead! Go up, you baldhead!” And he turned around, and when he saw them, he cursed them in the name of the Lord. And two she-bears came out of the woods and tore forty-two of the boys.

viewcode

Stuartinromford said:

Nigelb said:

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

Good Job.

The problem for the Conservatives is how many of them are looking to Enoch for their Wisdom.

And that's the living truth, Ruth.

Sandpit

Chris said:

Nigelb said:

Significant tactical gain round Bakhmut.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/04/frontline-report-ukraine-advances-1-5-km-near-bakhmut-taking-one-of-two-main-russian-fortifications-near-the-city/

It says the Ukrainians took the Russians by surprise and penetrated deeply into their rear. This must be a very painful situation for Putin.

He should be used to it by now!

Stuartinromford

MoonRabbit said:

Cicero said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

It’s a good Job we all know our Bibles.

Any more Bible puns? Mark my words, there will be trouble.

Or summon the She Bears.

He went up from there to Bethel, and while he was going up on the way, some small boys came out of the city and jeered at him, saying, “Go up, you baldhead! Go up, you baldhead!” And he turned around, and when he saw them, he cursed them in the name of the Lord. And two she-bears came out of the woods and tore forty-two of the boys.

Good thing Hauge wore that baseball cap, really.

Malmesbury

Sandpit said:

Chris said:

Nigelb said:

Significant tactical gain round Bakhmut.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/04/frontline-report-ukraine-advances-1-5-km-near-bakhmut-taking-one-of-two-main-russian-fortifications-near-the-city/

It says the Ukrainians took the Russians by surprise and penetrated deeply into their rear. This must be a very painful situation for Putin.

He should be used to it by now!

That's the thing about boasting about your Enormous Weapons. Someone always has a bigger and better one.

FrankBooth

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Seems Sunak is missing the next 2 PMQs

Tomorrow as he is at the 75th NHS celebration in Westminster Hall and next week at a NATO summit

I'd rather they just made it a fortnightly occasion rather than the PM having to come up with excuses all the time. Last thing we want is him spending hours preparing for PMQs all the time.

Why would all the Tory MPs be standing down? They can't be bothered with opposition? Seems like a lack of moral fibre if they aren't prepared to fight for their seats. If they lose so be it. Where are the Portillos of the future going to come from?

Sunil_Prasannan

Mum just shouted at me for telling her the following joke:


Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin

Carnyx

FrankBooth said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Seems Sunak is missing the next 2 PMQs

Tomorrow as he is at the 75th NHS celebration in Westminster Hall and next week at a NATO summit

I'd rather they just made it a fortnightly occasion rather than the PM having to come up with excuses all the time. Last thing we want is him spending hours preparing for PMQs all the time.

Why would all the Tory MPs be standing down? They can't be bothered with opposition? Seems like a lack of moral fibre if they aren't prepared to fight for their seats. If they lose so be it. Where are the Portillos of the future going to come from?

Presenters of TV programmes about railways?

Sean_F

MoonRabbit said:

Cicero said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

It’s a good Job we all know our Bibles.

Any more Bible puns? Mark my words, there will be trouble.

Or summon the She Bears.

He went up from there to Bethel, and while he was going up on the way, some small boys came out of the city and jeered at him, saying, “Go up, you baldhead! Go up, you baldhead!” And he turned around, and when he saw them, he cursed them in the name of the Lord. And two she-bears came out of the woods and tore forty-two of the boys.

Quite right too.

Never make fun of men who are losing their hair.

FrankBooth

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mum just shouted at me for telling her the following joke:


Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin

Jeremy Hardy would probably get more first serves in.

Nigelb

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mum just shouted at me for telling her the following joke:


Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin

Chardy ?
That's a French tankie.

MoonRabbit

HYUFD said:

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

As Luntz said on current polls any Tory MP with a majority under 15,000 is likely gone at the next general election. Hence a lot of Tory MPs standing down. That gap may close but likely still many face defeat if running again.

However I have more respect for those who will go down with the ship and stand again even if they face likely defeat, that includes IDS, or those willing to serve as MPs on the opposition benches and continue to serve their constituents and hold the government to account. Those rushing off to seek a directorship or lobbyist post asap as soon as the election is called may be doing better for their careers but it is the former group who should have the most respect

The problem with saying such things HY, as you often do, is how much is a prediction based just on uniform con to Lab swing nationally? But the feature right now is we are likely to get more of a “get the Tories out” tactical vote in the General Election next May than there even was in 1997.

As an example, Polling report has Penny Mourdant safe. It’s needs a 17% con to lab swing to remove her from a post election leadership contest, identical to what done for Portillo in 97. But if we factor in willingness of Lib Dem’s are greens to vote tactically, are there enough votes there for Tories to lose the seat?



Extrapolating this example to seat totals, today July 2023 polling report has Tories getting as high as 189 seats - is this just uniform swing based on current polls with no tactical voting at all? The gap between Tory to Labour could close to single digits and the Tories get less than 189.

Mordaunt's majority is 15,780, so exactly on the border of the Tory seats with majorities of 15,000 or less Luntz says will be lost on current polls.

Her seat was also Labour from 1997 to 2010

My point being, the reason May’s local election models predicted a hung Parliament was the psephologists will only work with votes they know as fact, no local elections in Scotland + Wales this year so no updated facts to work with (the polling report model above has Labour on more than 350 MP still with Scotland returning 44 SNP). The Psephologists won’t go into fantasy land anticipating tactical voting which might not even happen.

But here on PB we should be looking at that 189 based solely on uniform national swing and suspecting that’s really sub 150 Tory MPs shouldn’t we?

rottenborough

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
·
1h
...The Bloomberg article suggests this aggregate boost to UK household incomes from rate rises could be one of the reasons inflation is proving hard to tame here - i.e. the rate rises are *helping* households more than they're *hurting* and *supporting* consumption..

MoonRabbit

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

(FPT).

Flatlander said:

viewcode said:

Dura_Ace said:

viewcode said:

eek said:

Cookie said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Not a fan of Meta, but this will be interesting Meta's Twitter alternative, Threads, will be released on Thursday in the United States and on Friday for the rest of the world.
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1676017094893383680

@Nigelb, I pointed this out via a Mastodon tweet last night https://mstdn.social/@YourAnonRiots/110652924710786409

"Threads"? Really? You would have thought that word would have negative connotations for anything futuristic.

The fact it has a problem in the UK won't have been picked up elsewhere....

Wasn't there an American finance guy who wanted to call his product "nonces" and got quite surprised at the comments section?

The USN LPD USS Ponce also experienced mysterious outbreaks of mirth from alliance partners until its regretful decommissioning in 2016.

HMS Pansy, HMS Spanker, HMS Virile, HMS Teaser, HMS Tickler, HMS Thruster, HMS Thrasher, HMS Fairy, HMS Flirt, HMS Cockchafer...

Cockchafer (aka Melolontha melolontha) is an annoying insect pest and a perfectly good name. No worse than Mosquito.

Honest.

Also known as doodlebugs, so not ideal nomenclature for the RN.

HMS Cockchafer would have been one of the Insect class gunboats, though there were also the Fly class such as BLackfly and Butterfly ...

And a mutiny when they tried to put Pansy on the sailors caps.

TimS

rottenborough said:

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
·
1h
...The Bloomberg article suggests this aggregate boost to UK household incomes from rate rises could be one of the reasons inflation is proving hard to tame here - i.e. the rate rises are *helping* households more than they're *hurting* and *supporting* consumption..

I assume the boost will be on pension annuities. Not bank savings accounts. So good news for the boomers. Everything is good news for the boomers.

rottenborough

US election could hinge on this:

"So will voters’ views of the Biden economy eventually reflect the good news? Or did the inflation shock of 2021-22 establish a narrative of Biden as a poor economic manager that has become too deeply entrenched — both in the public consciousness and in the news media — to be dislodged even as the economy rapidly improves?"

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/03/opinion/biden-economy-inflation-unemployment.html

FrankBooth

Chris said:

Nigelb said:

Significant tactical gain round Bakhmut.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/04/frontline-report-ukraine-advances-1-5-km-near-bakhmut-taking-one-of-two-main-russian-fortifications-near-the-city/

It says the Ukrainians took the Russians by surprise and penetrated deeply into their rear. This must be a very painful situation for Putin.

He'll deny it ever happened.

One of the great things about the military is they can make such statements with the utmost seriousness and without any fear of misinterpretation.

Carnyx

MoonRabbit said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

(FPT).

Flatlander said:

viewcode said:

Dura_Ace said:

viewcode said:

eek said:

Cookie said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Not a fan of Meta, but this will be interesting Meta's Twitter alternative, Threads, will be released on Thursday in the United States and on Friday for the rest of the world.
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1676017094893383680

@Nigelb, I pointed this out via a Mastodon tweet last night https://mstdn.social/@YourAnonRiots/110652924710786409

"Threads"? Really? You would have thought that word would have negative connotations for anything futuristic.

The fact it has a problem in the UK won't have been picked up elsewhere....

Wasn't there an American finance guy who wanted to call his product "nonces" and got quite surprised at the comments section?

The USN LPD USS Ponce also experienced mysterious outbreaks of mirth from alliance partners until its regretful decommissioning in 2016.

HMS Pansy, HMS Spanker, HMS Virile, HMS Teaser, HMS Tickler, HMS Thruster, HMS Thrasher, HMS Fairy, HMS Flirt, HMS Cockchafer...

Cockchafer (aka Melolontha melolontha) is an annoying insect pest and a perfectly good name. No worse than Mosquito.

Honest.

Also known as doodlebugs, so not ideal nomenclature for the RN.

HMS Cockchafer would have been one of the Insect class gunboats, though there were also the Fly class such as BLackfly and Butterfly ...

And a mutiny when they tried to put Pansy on the sailors caps.

As the WW2 ship was renamed Heartsease before launch*, it can't have been that one. Perhaps the WW1 one?

*Just possible some senior orficers and ratings were standing by her already, but I'm not sure if that happened at that stage, let alone for mere corvettes.

PS They didn't put ships' names on tallies, ie cap ribbons, in WW1 or WW2 for security reasons, either.

viewcode

Nigelb said:

Significant tactical gain round Bakhmut.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/04/frontline-report-ukraine-advances-1-5-km-near-bakhmut-taking-one-of-two-main-russian-fortifications-near-the-city/

Whilst I am pleased to hear this, it illustrates a problem with the Ukranian counter-attack: it's very slow. It's not like late last year when the Ukranian surge coincided with the Russian collapse in certain areas, they're now counterattacking in areas where the Russians are well-prepared and have prepared defenses and mined the area. It's World War One and all the gains are slooooow.

NickPalmer

FrankBooth said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Seems Sunak is missing the next 2 PMQs

Tomorrow as he is at the 75th NHS celebration in Westminster Hall and next week at a NATO summit

I'd rather they just made it a fortnightly occasion rather than the PM having to come up with excuses all the time. Last thing we want is him spending hours preparing for PMQs all the time.

Why would all the Tory MPs be standing down? They can't be bothered with opposition? Seems like a lack of moral fibre if they aren't prepared to fight for their seats. If they lose so be it. Where are the Portillos of the future going to come from?

Yes, I was in the Not a Step Back category in 2010 and nearly won, to my surprise. But if one sees politics as a personal career move, then standing down makes sense rather than go on the market for ex-MPs at the same moment as 150 other people. Saves the hassle of fighting an election where you're probably doomed, too, unless you have loyalty to the cause as your motivation. As it's not really clear what the Conservative cause is at the moment, let alone what it'll be in 5 years' time, fanatical loyalty to it is in short supply.

Sandpit

rottenborough said:

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
·
1h
...The Bloomberg article suggests this aggregate boost to UK household incomes from rate rises could be one of the reasons inflation is proving hard to tame here - i.e. the rate rises are *helping* households more than they're *hurting* and *supporting* consumption..

I’ll take a wild guess that the only reason that still holds, is the number of fixed-rate mortgages hasn’t caught up yet. The people benefiting currently are all that will ever benefit, but there’s a huge number of people about to be hit on the other side.

FrankBooth

Sean_F said:

MoonRabbit said:

Cicero said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Miklosvar said:

ydoethur said:

viewcode said:

Forgive the pedantry, but the title when viewed on vf.politicalbetting.com, appears on my screen as "An Exodus of sitting Tory MPs on the way?". I'm not sure the word "exodus" should be capitalized unless it was a specific reference to the Bible text of that name.

Well, it’s a Numbers game.

Who are we to be the Judges of that?

I see my post has become the Genesis of an argument. This is a Revelation to me.

It’s a good Job we all know our Bibles.

Any more Bible puns? Mark my words, there will be trouble.

Or summon the She Bears.

He went up from there to Bethel, and while he was going up on the way, some small boys came out of the city and jeered at him, saying, “Go up, you baldhead! Go up, you baldhead!” And he turned around, and when he saw them, he cursed them in the name of the Lord. And two she-bears came out of the woods and tore forty-two of the boys.

Quite right too.

Never make fun of men who are losing their hair.

All men lose their hair. But some lose it more slowly than others.

viewcode

Nigelb said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mum just shouted at me for telling her the following joke:


Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin

Chardy ?
That's a French tankie.

No, that's the Char-B

Ah, my kepi, thank you

MoonRabbit

rottenborough said:

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
·
1h
...The Bloomberg article suggests this aggregate boost to UK household incomes from rate rises could be one of the reasons inflation is proving hard to tame here - i.e. the rate rises are *helping* households more than they're *hurting* and *supporting* consumption..

Instead of targeting handouts on those with choice of heating or eating, the Tories borrowed lots of money and splashed it out to everyone. This parliament will go into history books as get Brexit done conservatives splurging money.

Wealthy people used this extra handout to help heat their swimming pools. The governments Splurged money and Greedinflation of rip off Britain is what caused secondary inflation here, and Germany who copied us, where in Spain it’s less than 2% inflation.

The British government now trying to take the splurged money back out of peoples hands by using interest rates, whilst turning a blind eye to the greed inflation from those who fund their party coffers.

rottenborough

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
·
1h
...The Bloomberg article suggests this aggregate boost to UK household incomes from rate rises could be one of the reasons inflation is proving hard to tame here - i.e. the rate rises are *helping* households more than they're *hurting* and *supporting* consumption..

I’ll take a wild guess that the only reason that still holds, is the number of fixed-rate mortgages hasn’t caught up yet. The people benefiting currently are all that will ever benefit, but there’s a huge number of people about to be hit on the other side.

Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
1h
People always forget that there are always more savers than borrowers.

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico

TimS

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
·
1h
...The Bloomberg article suggests this aggregate boost to UK household incomes from rate rises could be one of the reasons inflation is proving hard to tame here - i.e. the rate rises are *helping* households more than they're *hurting* and *supporting* consumption..

I’ll take a wild guess that the only reason that still holds, is the number of fixed-rate mortgages hasn’t caught up yet. The people benefiting currently are all that will ever benefit, but there’s a huge number of people about to be hit on the other side.

Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
1h
People always forget that there are always more savers than borrowers.

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico

Of course the savers and borrowers often aren't the same people. Net borrowers generally working age, 30s-50s. Net savers generally 60+ as well as some youngsters not yet on the property ladder.

Carnyx

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mum just shouted at me for telling her the following joke:


Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin

Chardy ?
That's a French tankie.

No, that's the Char-B

Ah, my kepi, thank you

Mais voici le Char D 1 ...

https://www.chars-francais.net/2015/index.php/liste-chronologique/des-origines-a-1930?task=view&id=35

MoonRabbit

Carnyx said:

MoonRabbit said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

(FPT).

Flatlander said:

viewcode said:

Dura_Ace said:

viewcode said:

eek said:

Cookie said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Not a fan of Meta, but this will be interesting Meta's Twitter alternative, Threads, will be released on Thursday in the United States and on Friday for the rest of the world.
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1676017094893383680

@Nigelb, I pointed this out via a Mastodon tweet last night https://mstdn.social/@YourAnonRiots/110652924710786409

"Threads"? Really? You would have thought that word would have negative connotations for anything futuristic.

The fact it has a problem in the UK won't have been picked up elsewhere....

Wasn't there an American finance guy who wanted to call his product "nonces" and got quite surprised at the comments section?

The USN LPD USS Ponce also experienced mysterious outbreaks of mirth from alliance partners until its regretful decommissioning in 2016.

HMS Pansy, HMS Spanker, HMS Virile, HMS Teaser, HMS Tickler, HMS Thruster, HMS Thrasher, HMS Fairy, HMS Flirt, HMS Cockchafer...

Cockchafer (aka Melolontha melolontha) is an annoying insect pest and a perfectly good name. No worse than Mosquito.

Honest.

Also known as doodlebugs, so not ideal nomenclature for the RN.

HMS Cockchafer would have been one of the Insect class gunboats, though there were also the Fly class such as BLackfly and Butterfly ...

And a mutiny when they tried to put Pansy on the sailors caps.

As the WW2 ship was renamed Heartsease before launch*, it can't have been that one. Perhaps the WW1 one?

*Just possible some senior orficers and ratings were standing by her already, but I'm not sure if that happened at that stage, let alone for mere corvettes.

PS They didn't put ships' names on tallies, ie cap ribbons, in WW1 or WW2 for security reasons, either.

Has the meaning of Unicorn changed down the years. If Sunak tried to name a ship HMS Unicorn today, as Churchill tried to name one “HMS they don’t like it up em”, what would be the reaction?

TimS

rottenborough said:

US election could hinge on this:

"So will voters’ views of the Biden economy eventually reflect the good news? Or did the inflation shock of 2021-22 establish a narrative of Biden as a poor economic manager that has become too deeply entrenched — both in the public consciousness and in the news media — to be dislodged even as the economy rapidly improves?"

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/03/opinion/biden-economy-inflation-unemployment.html

Funny isn't it: the rest of the world is looking on the US with its outperforming stockmarket, global tech giants and ridiculously high household incomes with envy and despair. Americans themselves don't notice.

TimS

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mum just shouted at me for telling her the following joke:


Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin

Chardy ?
That's a French tankie.

No, that's the Char-B

Ah, my kepi, thank you

French grape variety isn't it?
Though one of the varieties I'm growing is in fact Melon-B.

Miklosvar

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
·
1h
...The Bloomberg article suggests this aggregate boost to UK household incomes from rate rises could be one of the reasons inflation is proving hard to tame here - i.e. the rate rises are *helping* households more than they're *hurting* and *supporting* consumption..

I’ll take a wild guess that the only reason that still holds, is the number of fixed-rate mortgages hasn’t caught up yet. The people benefiting currently are all that will ever benefit, but there’s a huge number of people about to be hit on the other side.

Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
1h
People always forget that there are always more savers than borrowers.

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico

Asymmetrical innit? 3% of the average savings account is bugger all, 6% of a mortgage is a feck of a lot.

Sandpit

MoonRabbit said:

Carnyx said:

MoonRabbit said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

(FPT).

Flatlander said:

viewcode said:

Dura_Ace said:

viewcode said:

eek said:

Cookie said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Not a fan of Meta, but this will be interesting Meta's Twitter alternative, Threads, will be released on Thursday in the United States and on Friday for the rest of the world.
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1676017094893383680

@Nigelb, I pointed this out via a Mastodon tweet last night https://mstdn.social/@YourAnonRiots/110652924710786409

"Threads"? Really? You would have thought that word would have negative connotations for anything futuristic.

The fact it has a problem in the UK won't have been picked up elsewhere....

Wasn't there an American finance guy who wanted to call his product "nonces" and got quite surprised at the comments section?

The USN LPD USS Ponce also experienced mysterious outbreaks of mirth from alliance partners until its regretful decommissioning in 2016.

HMS Pansy, HMS Spanker, HMS Virile, HMS Teaser, HMS Tickler, HMS Thruster, HMS Thrasher, HMS Fairy, HMS Flirt, HMS Cockchafer...

Cockchafer (aka Melolontha melolontha) is an annoying insect pest and a perfectly good name. No worse than Mosquito.

Honest.

Also known as doodlebugs, so not ideal nomenclature for the RN.

HMS Cockchafer would have been one of the Insect class gunboats, though there were also the Fly class such as BLackfly and Butterfly ...

And a mutiny when they tried to put Pansy on the sailors caps.

As the WW2 ship was renamed Heartsease before launch*, it can't have been that one. Perhaps the WW1 one?

*Just possible some senior orficers and ratings were standing by her already, but I'm not sure if that happened at that stage, let alone for mere corvettes.

PS They didn't put ships' names on tallies, ie cap ribbons, in WW1 or WW2 for security reasons, either.

Has the meaning of Unicorn changed down the years. If Sunak tried to name a ship HMS Unicorn today, as Churchill tried to name one “HMS they don’t like it up em”, what would be the reaction?

In my mind, a unicorn is a private company valued at over $1bn.

El_Capitano

NickPalmer said:

FrankBooth said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Seems Sunak is missing the next 2 PMQs

Tomorrow as he is at the 75th NHS celebration in Westminster Hall and next week at a NATO summit

I'd rather they just made it a fortnightly occasion rather than the PM having to come up with excuses all the time. Last thing we want is him spending hours preparing for PMQs all the time.

Why would all the Tory MPs be standing down? They can't be bothered with opposition? Seems like a lack of moral fibre if they aren't prepared to fight for their seats. If they lose so be it. Where are the Portillos of the future going to come from?

Yes, I was in the Not a Step Back category in 2010 and nearly won, to my surprise. But if one sees politics as a personal career move, then standing down makes sense rather than go on the market for ex-MPs at the same moment as 150 other people. Saves the hassle of fighting an election where you're probably doomed, too, unless you have loyalty to the cause as your motivation. As it's not really clear what the Conservative cause is at the moment, let alone what it'll be in 5 years' time, fanatical loyalty to it is in short supply.

Yes - the Tories announcing they're not re-standing can begin to line up those lucrative advisor positions immediately.

Weighed against that is the Loss of Office Payment they'd get if they were defeated, but if I remember rightly that's not especially generous.

kinabalu

TimS said:

rottenborough said:

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
·
1h
...The Bloomberg article suggests this aggregate boost to UK household incomes from rate rises could be one of the reasons inflation is proving hard to tame here - i.e. the rate rises are *helping* households more than they're *hurting* and *supporting* consumption..

I assume the boost will be on pension annuities. Not bank savings accounts. So good news for the boomers. Everything is good news for the boomers.

This point is underappreciated imo. If you're risk averse and cash rich, so your income is mainly interest, you've had a payrise of 300% in the space of a couple of years. You've got triple the money coming in now compared to before. Yes, inflation erodes everything etc, but you're doing much better than most and you're arguably better off now than you were, or at least it will probably feel that way.

El_Capitano

Sandpit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Carnyx said:

MoonRabbit said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

(FPT).

Flatlander said:

viewcode said:

Dura_Ace said:

viewcode said:

eek said:

Cookie said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Not a fan of Meta, but this will be interesting Meta's Twitter alternative, Threads, will be released on Thursday in the United States and on Friday for the rest of the world.
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1676017094893383680

@Nigelb, I pointed this out via a Mastodon tweet last night https://mstdn.social/@YourAnonRiots/110652924710786409

"Threads"? Really? You would have thought that word would have negative connotations for anything futuristic.

The fact it has a problem in the UK won't have been picked up elsewhere....

Wasn't there an American finance guy who wanted to call his product "nonces" and got quite surprised at the comments section?

The USN LPD USS Ponce also experienced mysterious outbreaks of mirth from alliance partners until its regretful decommissioning in 2016.

HMS Pansy, HMS Spanker, HMS Virile, HMS Teaser, HMS Tickler, HMS Thruster, HMS Thrasher, HMS Fairy, HMS Flirt, HMS Cockchafer...

Cockchafer (aka Melolontha melolontha) is an annoying insect pest and a perfectly good name. No worse than Mosquito.

Honest.

Also known as doodlebugs, so not ideal nomenclature for the RN.

HMS Cockchafer would have been one of the Insect class gunboats, though there were also the Fly class such as BLackfly and Butterfly ...

And a mutiny when they tried to put Pansy on the sailors caps.

As the WW2 ship was renamed Heartsease before launch*, it can't have been that one. Perhaps the WW1 one?

*Just possible some senior orficers and ratings were standing by her already, but I'm not sure if that happened at that stage, let alone for mere corvettes.

PS They didn't put ships' names on tallies, ie cap ribbons, in WW1 or WW2 for security reasons, either.

Has the meaning of Unicorn changed down the years. If Sunak tried to name a ship HMS Unicorn today, as Churchill tried to name one “HMS they don’t like it up em”, what would be the reaction?

In my mind, a unicorn is a private company valued at over $1bn.

I thought it was a bisexual single woman prepared to engage in a threesome with an existing couple. Do we have anyone on PB who might be able to corroborate this usage?

viewcode

Carnyx said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mum just shouted at me for telling her the following joke:


Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin

Chardy ?
That's a French tankie.

No, that's the Char-B

Ah, my kepi, thank you

Mais voici le Char D 1 ...

https://www.chars-francais.net/2015/index.php/liste-chronologique/des-origines-a-1930?task=view&id=35

[impersonates Crocodile Dundee]

That's not a tank. This is a tank.

OnlyLivingBoy

TimS said:

rottenborough said:

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
·
1h
...The Bloomberg article suggests this aggregate boost to UK household incomes from rate rises could be one of the reasons inflation is proving hard to tame here - i.e. the rate rises are *helping* households more than they're *hurting* and *supporting* consumption..

I assume the boost will be on pension annuities. Not bank savings accounts. So good news for the boomers. Everything is good news for the boomers.

It's driven by the increase in average interest rates paid on bank deposits versus the average rate paid on mortgages. So it is partly an old vs young/middle aged story but more a rich vs poor or more accurately savers vs borrowers one. It has been notable in the most recent consumer confidence surveys how the rich have become a lot more positive recently, a lot more so than others, and this may be part of the story.
Of course higher rates always help some and hurt others. The reason this should still slow the economy overall is that borrowers have (almost by definition) a higher marginal propensity to consume and so their reduction in spending outweighs the savers' increase. A high weight of fixed mortgages is probably slowing the transmission mechanism right now, though.

felix

rottenborough said:

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
·
1h
...The Bloomberg article suggests this aggregate boost to UK household incomes from rate rises could be one of the reasons inflation is proving hard to tame here - i.e. the rate rises are *helping* households more than they're *hurting* and *supporting* consumption..

I'm not surprised. I'm in Spain where inflation is less. Prices here are already a bit cheaper. The pound us up and my two main pensions are up by 8:% after tax. I'm a cautious spender generally but it's all very tempting. And I have a comfortable retirement income but there will be many on way more.

Malmesbury

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Significant tactical gain round Bakhmut.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/04/frontline-report-ukraine-advances-1-5-km-near-bakhmut-taking-one-of-two-main-russian-fortifications-near-the-city/

Whilst I am pleased to hear this, it illustrates a problem with the Ukranian counter-attack: it's very slow. It's not like late last year when the Ukranian surge coincided with the Russian collapse in certain areas, they're now counterattacking in areas where the Russians are well-prepared and have prepared defenses and mined the area. It's World War One and all the gains are slooooow.

It’s not WWI

What is happening is that the Russians have setup dense minefields in front of their defence lines.

The Ukrainian need to clear the mines, under fire. This they are doing, often with western provided special armoured vehicles. Giant Viper type systems are apparently being used a lot.

All this limits their advances to breaking through a minefield and taking the position behind it. They then need to rearm and prepare for the next assault.

This is why we are only seeing a limited number of units being involved - they are holding back the majority of their forces to (probably) exploit the breakthrough, when it reaches open country.

The Russians seem to be holding back a reserve to counter such a break out.

FrankBooth

What's been happening to savings rates and debt levels? You'd have expected savings to be going up and debt going down with interest rate rises and uncertainty.

Malmesbury

Carnyx said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mum just shouted at me for telling her the following joke:


Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin

Chardy ?
That's a French tankie.

No, that's the Char-B

Ah, my kepi, thank you

Mais voici le Char D 1 ...

https://www.chars-francais.net/2015/index.php/liste-chronologique/des-origines-a-1930?task=view&id=35

Superseded by the much improved Char D 2, before it got into production…

viewcode

TimS said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mum just shouted at me for telling her the following joke:


Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin

Chardy ?
That's a French tankie.

No, that's the Char-B

Ah, my kepi, thank you

French grape variety isn't it?
Though one of the varieties I'm growing is in fact Melon-B.

No. It's a famous French tank. After WW1 France was critically short of men and so could not father enough soldiers to fight WWII. Pre-war designers had compensated by designing tanks that were very heavily armoured and had one-person turrets. This was fine and all, but the result was too slow and not fast enough in firing to cope with the German Panzer 1 and 2s speeding over France. Disorientated, the Char-B was captured or destroyed, and in one infamous case was carried away from the front by train which was then captured and taken intact by the Germans.

TimS

viewcode said:

TimS said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mum just shouted at me for telling her the following joke:


Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin

Chardy ?
That's a French tankie.

No, that's the Char-B

Ah, my kepi, thank you

French grape variety isn't it?
Though one of the varieties I'm growing is in fact Melon-B.

No. It's a famous French tank. After WW1 France was critically short of men and so could not father enough soldiers to fight WWII. Pre-war designers had compensated by designing tanks that were very heavily armoured and had one-person turrets. This was fine and all, but the result was too slow and not fast enough in firing to cope with the German Panzer 1 and 2s speeding over France. Disorientated, the Char-B was captured or destroyed, and in one infamous case was carried away from the front by train which was then captured and taken intact by the Germans.

Twas a joke

SandyRentool

"Go back to your constituencies, and update your CVs."

Stocky

El_Capitano said:

Sandpit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Carnyx said:

MoonRabbit said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

(FPT).

Flatlander said:

viewcode said:

Dura_Ace said:

viewcode said:

eek said:

Cookie said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Not a fan of Meta, but this will be interesting Meta's Twitter alternative, Threads, will be released on Thursday in the United States and on Friday for the rest of the world.
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1676017094893383680

@Nigelb, I pointed this out via a Mastodon tweet last night https://mstdn.social/@YourAnonRiots/110652924710786409

"Threads"? Really? You would have thought that word would have negative connotations for anything futuristic.

The fact it has a problem in the UK won't have been picked up elsewhere....

Wasn't there an American finance guy who wanted to call his product "nonces" and got quite surprised at the comments section?

The USN LPD USS Ponce also experienced mysterious outbreaks of mirth from alliance partners until its regretful decommissioning in 2016.

HMS Pansy, HMS Spanker, HMS Virile, HMS Teaser, HMS Tickler, HMS Thruster, HMS Thrasher, HMS Fairy, HMS Flirt, HMS Cockchafer...

Cockchafer (aka Melolontha melolontha) is an annoying insect pest and a perfectly good name. No worse than Mosquito.

Honest.

Also known as doodlebugs, so not ideal nomenclature for the RN.

HMS Cockchafer would have been one of the Insect class gunboats, though there were also the Fly class such as BLackfly and Butterfly ...

And a mutiny when they tried to put Pansy on the sailors caps.

As the WW2 ship was renamed Heartsease before launch*, it can't have been that one. Perhaps the WW1 one?

*Just possible some senior orficers and ratings were standing by her already, but I'm not sure if that happened at that stage, let alone for mere corvettes.

PS They didn't put ships' names on tallies, ie cap ribbons, in WW1 or WW2 for security reasons, either.

Has the meaning of Unicorn changed down the years. If Sunak tried to name a ship HMS Unicorn today, as Churchill tried to name one “HMS they don’t like it up em”, what would be the reaction?

In my mind, a unicorn is a private company valued at over $1bn.

I thought it was a bisexual single woman prepared to engage in a threesome with an existing couple. Do we have anyone on PB who might be able to corroborate this usage?

Sadly not.

Malmesbury

viewcode said:

Carnyx said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mum just shouted at me for telling her the following joke:


Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin

Chardy ?
That's a French tankie.

No, that's the Char-B

Ah, my kepi, thank you

Mais voici le Char D 1 ...

https://www.chars-francais.net/2015/index.php/liste-chronologique/des-origines-a-1930?task=view&id=35

[impersonates Crocodile Dundee]

That's not a tank. This is a tank.

This is all the tank
https://youtu.be/lfFEkH4Hzzc

HYUFD

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

As Luntz said on current polls any Tory MP with a majority under 15,000 is likely gone at the next general election. Hence a lot of Tory MPs standing down. That gap may close but likely still many face defeat if running again.

However I have more respect for those who will go down with the ship and stand again even if they face likely defeat, that includes IDS, or those willing to serve as MPs on the opposition benches and continue to serve their constituents and hold the government to account. Those rushing off to seek a directorship or lobbyist post asap as soon as the election is called may be doing better for their careers but it is the former group who should have the most respect

The problem with saying such things HY, as you often do, is how much is a prediction based just on uniform con to Lab swing nationally? But the feature right now is we are likely to get more of a “get the Tories out” tactical vote in the General Election next May than there even was in 1997.

As an example, Polling report has Penny Mourdant safe. It’s needs a 17% con to lab swing to remove her from a post election leadership contest, identical to what done for Portillo in 97. But if we factor in willingness of Lib Dem’s are greens to vote tactically, are there enough votes there for Tories to lose the seat?



Extrapolating this example to seat totals, today July 2023 polling report has Tories getting as high as 189 seats - is this just uniform swing based on current polls with no tactical voting at all? The gap between Tory to Labour could close to single digits and the Tories get less than 189.

Mordaunt's majority is 15,780, so exactly on the border of the Tory seats with majorities of 15,000 or less Luntz says will be lost on current polls.

Her seat was also Labour from 1997 to 2010

My point being, the reason May’s local election models predicted a hung Parliament was the psephologists will only work with votes they know as fact, no local elections in Scotland + Wales this year so no updated facts to work with (the polling report model above has Labour on more than 350 MP still with Scotland returning 44 SNP). The Psephologists won’t go into fantasy land anticipating tactical voting which might not even happen.

But here on PB we should be looking at that 189 based solely on uniform national swing and suspecting that’s really sub 150 Tory MPs shouldn’t we?

There may be more LD tactical votes for Labour in Tory marginals however the Labour vote will also be up on 2019 in Tory marginals the LDs are targeting.

Remember too many LD voters in the local elections will vote Conservative in the general election when faced with the risk of a Labour government increasing their taxes rather than just a LD led council

TimS

Malmesbury said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Significant tactical gain round Bakhmut.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/04/frontline-report-ukraine-advances-1-5-km-near-bakhmut-taking-one-of-two-main-russian-fortifications-near-the-city/

Whilst I am pleased to hear this, it illustrates a problem with the Ukranian counter-attack: it's very slow. It's not like late last year when the Ukranian surge coincided with the Russian collapse in certain areas, they're now counterattacking in areas where the Russians are well-prepared and have prepared defenses and mined the area. It's World War One and all the gains are slooooow.

It’s not WWI

What is happening is that the Russians have setup dense minefields in front of their defence lines.

The Ukrainian need to clear the mines, under fire. This they are doing, often with western provided special armoured vehicles. Giant Viper type systems are apparently being used a lot.

All this limits their advances to breaking through a minefield and taking the position behind it. They then need to rearm and prepare for the next assault.

This is why we are only seeing a limited number of units being involved - they are holding back the majority of their forces to (probably) exploit the breakthrough, when it reaches open country.

The Russians seem to be holding back a reserve to counter such a break out.

Us Westerners are unfortunately rather impatient. I think we all want this to be like Bazball. It took the North Vietnamese many years to kick the US out of Vietnam, and the Taliban had to wait 2 decades to get them out of Afghanistan. Quicker would be nicer, but I think Ukraine has the patience to see this through and I hope we do too.

eek

It's not just Tory MPs

https://twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1676214328532271104

BREAKING: @MhairiBlack
tells @maitlis
she is stepping down as an MP at the next general election.

She says Westminster is a “toxic workplace” that has taken its toll on her "body and mind".

Scott_xP

@danbloom1
NEW: The SNP's Mhairi Black tells
@TheNewsAgents
she is stepping down at the next election.

That means two people who not so long ago were the youngest MP in Parliament — first Chloe Smith, then Mhairi Black — are both leaving in 2024.

malcolmg

eek said:

It's not just Tory MPs

https://twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1676214328532271104

BREAKING: @MhairiBlack
tells @maitlis
she is stepping down as an MP at the next general election.

She says Westminster is a “toxic workplace” that has taken its toll on her "body and mind".

They can see the buffers ahead and the gravy train heading for them at full speed.

Dura_Ace

Malmesbury said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Significant tactical gain round Bakhmut.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/04/frontline-report-ukraine-advances-1-5-km-near-bakhmut-taking-one-of-two-main-russian-fortifications-near-the-city/

Whilst I am pleased to hear this, it illustrates a problem with the Ukranian counter-attack: it's very slow. It's not like late last year when the Ukranian surge coincided with the Russian collapse in certain areas, they're now counterattacking in areas where the Russians are well-prepared and have prepared defenses and mined the area. It's World War One and all the gains are slooooow.

It’s not WWI

What is happening is that the Russians have setup dense minefields in front of their defence lines.

The Ukrainian need to clear the mines, under fire. This they are doing, often with western provided special armoured vehicles. Giant Viper type systems are apparently being used a lot.

All this limits their advances to breaking through a minefield and taking the position behind it. They then need to rearm and prepare for the next assault.

This is why we are only seeing a limited number of units being involved - they are holding back the majority of their forces to (probably) exploit the breakthrough, when it reaches open country.

The Russians seem to be holding back a reserve to counter such a break out.

There is precious little "open country" as both sides have used the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty as a jizz rag and deployed (literally) millions of anti-personnel mines. Even when an area is cleared it gets immediately remined by PFM or similar.

I've seen some bleak shit in my time but that Bradley stuck in a minefield video was a tough watch and shows just how difficult any type of manoeuvring is. Hence, crimson drenched stalemate. #winninghere #overbyxmas #wheresthechallengers

Nigelb

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Significant tactical gain round Bakhmut.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/04/frontline-report-ukraine-advances-1-5-km-near-bakhmut-taking-one-of-two-main-russian-fortifications-near-the-city/

Whilst I am pleased to hear this, it illustrates a problem with the Ukranian counter-attack: it's very slow. It's not like late last year when the Ukranian surge coincided with the Russian collapse in certain areas, they're now counterattacking in areas where the Russians are well-prepared and have prepared defenses and mined the area. It's World War One and all the gains are slooooow.

Attacking defence in depth is slow.

https://twitter.com/Porter_Anderson/status/1675189165946699778
@MarkHertling to @sarasidnerCNN : "For anyone in the West saying, 'This is going too slowly,' my response is, 'It's a lot harder than it looks.' I contend the #Ukrainian forces are doing a good job on a large front. They haven't committed yet, they're trying to find holes."

Note, NATO wouldn't even attempt such a manoeuvre without air domination.

And this (if accurate) is very much not how WWI tended to go.
...Each such raid was immediately followed by an infantry assault that completely cleared and secured positions.

The assaults on the eastern bank of the canal were extremely successful because Ukrainians managed to advance by up to 1.5 km towards Klishchiivka, slowly penetrating the Russian rear...

JosiasJessop

TimS said:

Malmesbury said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Significant tactical gain round Bakhmut.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/04/frontline-report-ukraine-advances-1-5-km-near-bakhmut-taking-one-of-two-main-russian-fortifications-near-the-city/

Whilst I am pleased to hear this, it illustrates a problem with the Ukranian counter-attack: it's very slow. It's not like late last year when the Ukranian surge coincided with the Russian collapse in certain areas, they're now counterattacking in areas where the Russians are well-prepared and have prepared defenses and mined the area. It's World War One and all the gains are slooooow.

It’s not WWI

What is happening is that the Russians have setup dense minefields in front of their defence lines.

The Ukrainian need to clear the mines, under fire. This they are doing, often with western provided special armoured vehicles. Giant Viper type systems are apparently being used a lot.

All this limits their advances to breaking through a minefield and taking the position behind it. They then need to rearm and prepare for the next assault.

This is why we are only seeing a limited number of units being involved - they are holding back the majority of their forces to (probably) exploit the breakthrough, when it reaches open country.

The Russians seem to be holding back a reserve to counter such a break out.

Us Westerners are unfortunately rather impatient. I think we all want this to be like Bazball. It took the North Vietnamese many years to kick the US out of Vietnam, and the Taliban had to wait 2 decades to get them out of Afghanistan. Quicker would be nicer, but I think Ukraine has the patience to see this through and I hope we do too.

If we don't want to be impatient, we need to give them the weapons we'd use in their situation. And that involves an f'load of planes.

We're expecting Ukraine to win this with one hand behind their back.

malcolmg

kinabalu said:

TimS said:

rottenborough said:

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
·
1h
...The Bloomberg article suggests this aggregate boost to UK household incomes from rate rises could be one of the reasons inflation is proving hard to tame here - i.e. the rate rises are *helping* households more than they're *hurting* and *supporting* consumption..

I assume the boost will be on pension annuities. Not bank savings accounts. So good news for the boomers. Everything is good news for the boomers.

This point is underappreciated imo. If you're risk averse and cash rich, so your income is mainly interest, you've had a payrise of 300% in the space of a couple of years. You've got triple the money coming in now compared to before. Yes, inflation erodes everything etc, but you're doing much better than most and you're arguably better off now than you were, or at least it will probably feel that way.

Must be a very miniscule amount of people who live on interest, lottery winners and a few billionaires at best.

Nigelb

.

TimS said:

viewcode said:

TimS said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mum just shouted at me for telling her the following joke:


Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin

Chardy ?
That's a French tankie.

No, that's the Char-B

Ah, my kepi, thank you

French grape variety isn't it?
Though one of the varieties I'm growing is in fact Melon-B.

No. It's a famous French tank. After WW1 France was critically short of men and so could not father enough soldiers to fight WWII. Pre-war designers had compensated by designing tanks that were very heavily armoured and had one-person turrets. This was fine and all, but the result was too slow and not fast enough in firing to cope with the German Panzer 1 and 2s speeding over France. Disorientated, the Char-B was captured or destroyed, and in one infamous case was carried away from the front by train which was then captured and taken intact by the Germans.

Twas a joke

Likewise -
'Char-dy' = 'Tank-ie'.

Tough crowd today.

HYUFD

eek said:

It's not just Tory MPs

https://twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1676214328532271104

BREAKING: @MhairiBlack
tells @maitlis
she is stepping down as an MP at the next general election.

She says Westminster is a “toxic workplace” that has taken its toll on her "body and mind".

No doubt also seen her seat predicted to fall to Labour

SirNorfolkPassmore

Scott_xP said:

@danbloom1
NEW: The SNP's Mhairi Black tells
@TheNewsAgents
she is stepping down at the next election.

That means two people who not so long ago were the youngest MP in Parliament — first Chloe Smith, then Mhairi Black — are both leaving in 2024.

It's a slightly different situation for SNP MPs leaving.

Undoubtedly, some of it will be to do with major problems their party is facing. But it also isn't obvious that being an MP is the pinnacle of an SNP politician's political career, and it will be interesting to see which of those leaving pop up as MSP candidates in 2026.

Cookie

malcolmg said:

kinabalu said:

TimS said:

rottenborough said:

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
This interesting analysis from Bloomberg suggests the income *boost* to UK households, in aggregate, from higher interest rates has so far outstripped the income *hit* to all households from higher mortgage rates...

Ben Chu
@BenChu_
·
1h
...The Bloomberg article suggests this aggregate boost to UK household incomes from rate rises could be one of the reasons inflation is proving hard to tame here - i.e. the rate rises are *helping* households more than they're *hurting* and *supporting* consumption..

I assume the boost will be on pension annuities. Not bank savings accounts. So good news for the boomers. Everything is good news for the boomers.

This point is underappreciated imo. If you're risk averse and cash rich, so your income is mainly interest, you've had a payrise of 300% in the space of a couple of years. You've got triple the money coming in now compared to before. Yes, inflation erodes everything etc, but you're doing much better than most and you're arguably better off now than you were, or at least it will probably feel that way.

Must be a very miniscule amount of people who live on interest, lottery winners and a few billionaires at best.

Yes, I'm puzzled by this. I'm not saying Ben Chu is wrong - but it's a long way from the experience of anyone I come across. Even those who live of income from their wealth (like the billionaires Malc alludes to and, I guess, many retirees) will mostly get income from investments, rather than just have it trickle in from a bank account. And investments won't be doing well because interest rate rises.

Carnyx

Malmesbury said:

Carnyx said:

viewcode said:

Nigelb said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Mum just shouted at me for telling her the following joke:


Tennis player Jeremy Chardy is Jeremy Hardy's long-lost French cousin

Chardy ?
That's a French tankie.

No, that's the Char-B

Ah, my kepi, thank you

Mais voici le Char D 1 ...

https://www.chars-francais.net/2015/index.php/liste-chronologique/des-origines-a-1930?task=view&id=35

Superseded by the much improved Char D 2, before it got into production…

Un Char-day, quand meme.

Carnyx

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Scott_xP said:

@danbloom1
NEW: The SNP's Mhairi Black tells
@TheNewsAgents
she is stepping down at the next election.

That means two people who not so long ago were the youngest MP in Parliament — first Chloe Smith, then Mhairi Black — are both leaving in 2024.

It's a slightly different situation for SNP MPs leaving.

Undoubtedly, some of it will be to do with major problems their party is facing. But it also isn't obvious that being an MP is the pinnacle of an SNP politician's political career, and it will be interesting to see which of those leaving pop up as MSP candidates in 2026.

This is correct. Logically enough for the SNP.

There will also be the odd by-election arising from the departure of the odd constituency MP. However, the presence of the party system reduces the by-election opportunities (because gaps are filled, usually, from the first vacancy of the party in question).

Andy_JS

Mhairi Black will be able to tell her family when she's older "I spent my 20s being an MP at Westminster".