Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Another tricky by-election defence for the Tories – politicalbetting.com

2456710

Comments

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Here’s a recent-ish paper which tries to account for the value of public services in Europe when comparing income.

    http://klenow.com/Jones_Klenow.pdf

    Rather than looking like 60 percent of the US value, as it does based solely on consumption, France ends up with consumption-equivalent welfare equal to 92 percent of that in the United States.

    UK was even higher, at 97%.

    Published in 2016 so data will be a bit old.
    But going back to Alabama, and allowing for the greater inequality in the USA, it’s not at all credible that Alabama is wealthier than Germany.

    Quite so

    Munich is a really wealthy city, and obviously so, and the rest of Bavaria is clearly affluent, almost Swiss

    Nowhere in Alabama is anywhere near that level, no matter how nice the suburbs of Mobile, or how big the houses there

    And the poorest bits of Alabama - the random trailer parks with barely any plumbing - are likewise much poorer than anywhere in Germany, even the worst bits of Old East Germany
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    edited June 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    I'm in New England, and New Hampshire (generally) feels pretty rich. Maine, by contrast, felt much poorer.

    Vermont seemed very quiet and incredibly rural. Not poor, no obvious homelessness or drug issues. But not a lot to do.
    Folks in Mass. call Maine "the Blue Tarp State" referencing the blue tarps that (they say) Maine-iacs use for covering (up) rotting boats, dilapidated houses, falling barns, piles of trash, etc., etc.

    Addendum - Vermont is a slightly more upscale, FAR more tidy AND colder version of West Virginia. What do do? Watch the leaves turn, then the sap run!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    I'm in New England, and New Hampshire (generally) feels pretty rich. Maine, by contrast, felt much poorer.

    Vermont seemed very quiet and incredibly rural. Not poor, no obvious homelessness or drug issues. But not a lot to do.
    Rural America is REALLY boring, especially outside the South or away from anywhere with Civil War/Revolution history

    There’s nothing to see. You can drive for 200 miles and there might be a Museum of the American Thimble, and perhaps a well preserved 1930s Exxon garage

    Drive for 200 miles in Britain, France and Italy and you will pass 13 cathedrals, 218 castles, 1,927 medieval churches, a Stone Age ritual circle on ten, 63 towns founded by Romans, 143 ghost villages destroyed by the Black Death, and all the crowded hassles and issues that come with that density of history and settlement

    Chacon a son gout
    Next time, take a river boat! Bring your gambler hat and dough and learn how to play poker on the pay-as-you-go-broke plan.

    Ohio is great cruising (wholesome or otherwise) river. So is the Upper MIssisissippi.

    The late, great John Hartford used to pilot a boat for fun on the Illinois River, wrote great songs about the rivers; before he hit it big as a songwriter, he worked as a bargeman on the Mississippi & etc.

    Julia Belle Swain - John Hartford
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH8qObPiX04

    "Darker than the inside of a cow"!


    That’s actually a damn good idea for an article. All these massive and mighty rivers interconnect, right? You can go from the Ohio to the Mississippi etc

    It would be great to do your own cruise from Pennsylvania to Nawlins, stopping at mad little places en route
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Traditional antidote to boredom in rural America - 190 proof Everclear

    WAAAAAHOOOOOOOOO!!!!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    I'm in New England, and New Hampshire (generally) feels pretty rich. Maine, by contrast, felt much poorer.

    Vermont seemed very quiet and incredibly rural. Not poor, no obvious homelessness or drug issues. But not a lot to do.
    Rural America is REALLY boring, especially outside the South or away from anywhere with Civil War/Revolution history

    There’s nothing to see. You can drive for 200 miles and there might be a Museum of the American Thimble, and perhaps a well preserved 1930s Exxon garage

    Drive for 200 miles in Britain, France and Italy and you will pass 13 cathedrals, 218 castles, 1,927 medieval churches, a Stone Age ritual circle on ten, 63 towns founded by Romans, 143 ghost villages destroyed by the Black Death, and all the crowded hassles and issues that come with that density of history and settlement

    Chacon a son gout
    Next time, take a river boat! Bring your gambler hat and dough and learn how to play poker on the pay-as-you-go-broke plan.

    Ohio is great cruising (wholesome or otherwise) river. So is the Upper MIssisissippi.

    The late, great John Hartford used to pilot a boat for fun on the Illinois River, wrote great songs about the rivers; before he hit it big as a songwriter, he worked as a bargeman on the Mississippi & etc.

    Julia Belle Swain - John Hartford
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH8qObPiX04

    "Darker than the inside of a cow"!


    That’s actually a damn good idea for an article. All these massive and mighty rivers interconnect, right? You can go from the Ohio to the Mississippi etc

    It would be great to do your own cruise from Pennsylvania to Nawlins, stopping at mad little places en route
    When I was a lad, there was a boat that when up and down the Ohio in the summer, carrying a small orchestra, giving concerts at places like Point Pleasant.

    Speaking of John Hartford, he wrote a neat book for kids (but interesting for adults) called "Steamboat in a Cornfield" about a river boat around turn of 19th-20th century, that got caught after some flooding in rapidly-falling water . . . and ended up in a farmer's cornfield.

    Was a heck of a job getting it back on the river!

    Today there are massive dams that control the Ohio AND Mississippi - mostly.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557
    edited June 2023

    Traditional antidote to boredom in rural America - 190 proof Everclear

    WAAAAAHOOOOOOOOO!!!!

    That said, if you think rural America is boring (and it often is), try rural Australia

    The size of the USA with even less, shorter history and just 25m people. You can drive 300 miles and the most interesting thing is a dead wombat. During a road trip you will talk about the dead wombat for days afterwards. As nothing else happens

    I love Australia partly for this reason. It is numbingly boring and lonely, and it has small towns just as ugly as anywhere in WV (tho not as poor)

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Speaking of water connections in America, note that it is perfectly possible to paddle your canoe - or a larger vessel - from New York City to Lake Erie, then via Lakes Huron and Michigan to Chicago - THEN on Chicago River to the Illinois River to Mississippi, then down to Cairo IL where you can keep going down the Mighty Mississip OR take a left turn up the Ohio en route to Pittsburgh.

    And that's just ONE long, strange trip! Plenty more, for example the Intra-Coastal Waterway.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Leon said:

    Traditional antidote to boredom in rural America - 190 proof Everclear

    WAAAAAHOOOOOOOOO!!!!

    That said, if you think rural America is boring (and it often is), try rural Australia

    The size of the USA with even less, shorter history and just 25m people. You can drive 300 miles and the most interesting thing is a dead wombat. During a road trip you will talk about the dead wombat for days afterwards. As nothing else happens

    I love Australia partly for this reason. It is numbingly boring and lonely, and it has small towns just as ugly as anywhere in WV (tho not as poor)

    Are you sure that wombat was really dead? Reckon the critter was just playin' 'possum!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,639
    re discussion earlier, Germany has great public prosperity in the rich parts; travel around the southern Laender and they look neat). But if you were to live there you'd accept a downward personal endowment of stuff compared to USA/UK. Most of all in housing, as you'd likely be renting a small apartment.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,004
    Also Germany uses cash a lot more than we do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    What's french for 'bunch of snowflakes'?

  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Leon said:

    Traditional antidote to boredom in rural America - 190 proof Everclear

    WAAAAAHOOOOOOOOO!!!!

    That said, if you think rural America is boring (and it often is), try rural Australia

    The size of the USA with even less, shorter history and just 25m people. You can drive 300 miles and the most interesting thing is a dead wombat. During a road trip you will talk about the dead wombat for days afterwards. As nothing else happens

    I love Australia partly for this reason. It is numbingly boring and lonely, and it has small towns just as ugly as anywhere in WV (tho not as poor)

    Are you sure that wombat was really dead? Reckon the critter was just playin' 'possum!
    I found somewhere genuinely nice to eat and drink by the Ohio river! Took me 3 hours but hey. Caproni’s in Maysville, KY



    Also staying in a nice historic hotel here. The Lee House Inn. Once frequented by President Andrew Jackson. The whole town is pleasant (thank god!). Understated yet genuinely storied

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Traditional antidote to boredom in rural America - 190 proof Everclear

    WAAAAAHOOOOOOOOO!!!!

    That said, if you think rural America is boring (and it often is), try rural Australia

    The size of the USA with even less, shorter history and just 25m people. You can drive 300 miles and the most interesting thing is a dead wombat. During a road trip you will talk about the dead wombat for days afterwards. As nothing else happens

    I love Australia partly for this reason. It is numbingly boring and lonely, and it has small towns just as ugly as anywhere in WV (tho not as poor)

    Are you sure that wombat was really dead? Reckon the critter was just playin' 'possum!
    I found somewhere genuinely nice to eat and drink by the Ohio river! Took me 3 hours but hey. Caproni’s in Maysville, KY



    Also staying in a nice historic hotel here. The Lee House Inn. Once frequented by President Andrew Jackson. The whole town is pleasant (thank god!). Understated yet genuinely storied

    Looks great.

    Interesting that hotel is featuring Andy Jackon among featured former guests.

    Seeing as how as POTUS he famously vetoed federal infrastructure backing for the Maysville Road to connect the river town with Lexington, as part of emerging national road system.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maysville_Road_veto

    Am pretty sure that the veto made Jackson LESS than wildly popular in Maysville back in the day.

    Sure you've noticed that the Ohio River is noticably wider than it was back in Point Pleasant, where the Kanawha joined. Between PP and Maysville, two more major tributaries have joined: the Big Sandy which is WV-KY line; and the Scioto River which follows south from Columbus.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    EPG said:

    re discussion earlier, Germany has great public prosperity in the rich parts; travel around the southern Laender and they look neat). But if you were to live there you'd accept a downward personal endowment of stuff compared to USA/UK. Most of all in housing, as you'd likely be renting a small apartment.

    The same is true of New York, Hong Kong, and much of Germanic Europe.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Leon is now getting tantalizingly close to . . . wait for it . . . Big Bone Lick!

    AND he's just a few short miles from Blue Licks Battlefield State Resort Park.

    He was just at Point Pleasant,the site of the first battle of the American Revolutionary War (at least according to West Virginians). And Blue Licks is famed (at least by Kentuckians) as the LAST battle of the Revolution.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Licks_Battlefield_State_Resort_Park

    In 1782, British Captain William Caldwell led a force of Indians against the small Kentucky settlement of Bryan's Station. Caldwell met stiff resistance, and after two days, retreated toward the Ohio River. The pioneers – Daniel Boone among them – were inclined to wait for reinforcements before pursuing the enemy, and although under the general leadership of Major John Todd, Major Hugh McGary of the Lincoln County contingent made a brash and fateful decision to pursue immediately (after an insult for being timid from Todd), engaging Caldwell at Blue Licks. In the battle that followed, 60 of the 176 men who followed McGary were killed, Boone's son Israel among them. Another 7 were captured. The survivors fled back to Bryan's Station and Lexington. Reinforcements under [Benjamin Logan] eventually arrived and buried the dead militiamen.

    SSI - note that Major Todd was an ancestor of Mary Todd Lincoln. And Daniel Boone was, Daniel Boone.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,004
    "Conservative Party staff filmed drinking and dancing during COVID lockdown

    One couple wearing bright party clothes can be seen dancing around the room, knocking into a table at one point, while someone off camera can be heard joking that they're all "bending the rules"."

    https://news.sky.com/story/partygate-conservative-party-staff-filmed-drinking-and-dancing-during-covid-lockdown-12904492
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,557

    Leon is now getting tantalizingly close to . . . wait for it . . . Big Bone Lick!

    AND he's just a few short miles from Blue Licks Battlefield State Resort Park.

    He was just at Point Pleasant,the site of the first battle of the American Revolutionary War (at least according to West Virginians). And Blue Licks is famed (at least by Kentuckians) as the LAST battle of the Revolution.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Licks_Battlefield_State_Resort_Park

    In 1782, British Captain William Caldwell led a force of Indians against the small Kentucky settlement of Bryan's Station. Caldwell met stiff resistance, and after two days, retreated toward the Ohio River. The pioneers – Daniel Boone among them – were inclined to wait for reinforcements before pursuing the enemy, and although under the general leadership of Major John Todd, Major Hugh McGary of the Lincoln County contingent made a brash and fateful decision to pursue immediately (after an insult for being timid from Todd), engaging Caldwell at Blue Licks. In the battle that followed, 60 of the 176 men who followed McGary were killed, Boone's son Israel among them. Another 7 were captured. The survivors fled back to Bryan's Station and Lexington. Reinforcements under [Benjamin Logan] eventually arrived and buried the dead militiamen.

    SSI - note that Major Todd was an ancestor of Mary Todd Lincoln. And Daniel Boone was, Daniel Boone.

    I’m now on my hotel balcony (a rare event in American hotels) and it has a fine view of the Maysville Bridge



  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,004
    edited June 2023
    This video of the lockdown party looks like a badly-acted spoof. Apparently it's real.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-91CpX6pE4A
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    I'm in New England, and New Hampshire (generally) feels pretty rich. Maine, by contrast, felt much poorer.

    Vermont seemed very quiet and incredibly rural. Not poor, no obvious homelessness or drug issues. But not a lot to do.
    Rural America is REALLY boring, especially outside the South or away from anywhere with Civil War/Revolution history

    There’s nothing to see. You can drive for 200 miles and there might be a Museum of the American Thimble, and perhaps a well preserved 1930s Exxon garage

    Drive for 200 miles in Britain, France and Italy and you will pass 13 cathedrals, 218 castles, 1,927 medieval churches, a Stone Age ritual circle on ten, 63 towns founded by Romans, 143 ghost villages destroyed by the Black Death, and all the crowded hassles and issues that come with that density of history and settlement

    Chacon a son gout
    Next time, take a river boat! Bring your gambler hat and dough and learn how to play poker on the pay-as-you-go-broke plan.

    Ohio is great cruising (wholesome or otherwise) river. So is the Upper MIssisissippi.

    The late, great John Hartford used to pilot a boat for fun on the Illinois River, wrote great songs about the rivers; before he hit it big as a songwriter, he worked as a bargeman on the Mississippi & etc.

    Julia Belle Swain - John Hartford
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH8qObPiX04

    "Darker than the inside of a cow"!


    Mention of poker reminds me of Winston Churchill playing poker with President Truman:-
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmefhLjRfYw&t=112s
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Leon said:

    Leon is now getting tantalizingly close to . . . wait for it . . . Big Bone Lick!

    AND he's just a few short miles from Blue Licks Battlefield State Resort Park.

    He was just at Point Pleasant,the site of the first battle of the American Revolutionary War (at least according to West Virginians). And Blue Licks is famed (at least by Kentuckians) as the LAST battle of the Revolution.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Licks_Battlefield_State_Resort_Park

    In 1782, British Captain William Caldwell led a force of Indians against the small Kentucky settlement of Bryan's Station. Caldwell met stiff resistance, and after two days, retreated toward the Ohio River. The pioneers – Daniel Boone among them – were inclined to wait for reinforcements before pursuing the enemy, and although under the general leadership of Major John Todd, Major Hugh McGary of the Lincoln County contingent made a brash and fateful decision to pursue immediately (after an insult for being timid from Todd), engaging Caldwell at Blue Licks. In the battle that followed, 60 of the 176 men who followed McGary were killed, Boone's son Israel among them. Another 7 were captured. The survivors fled back to Bryan's Station and Lexington. Reinforcements under [Benjamin Logan] eventually arrived and buried the dead militiamen.

    SSI - note that Major Todd was an ancestor of Mary Todd Lincoln. And Daniel Boone was, Daniel Boone.

    I’m now on my hotel balcony (a rare event in American hotels) and it has a fine view of the Maysville Bridge



    Yet yez just HAD to spoil the view!

    BTW, when Andrew Jackson ran for re-election in 1832, following vetoing the Maysville Road, Mason County (where you now are) voted AGAINST him and in favor of Henry Clay, Whig nominee, pro-federal funding for internal improvements, and (coincidentally) from Lexington KY. Clay also won the statewide vote - the only state he carried west of the Alleghanies.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a5/PresidentialCounty1832Colorbrewer.png
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    There will be manoeuvres in the Kremlin anyway since Putin is 70 years old and long rumoured to be ill.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477

    NATIONAL POLL: Harvard/Harris

    PRES:
    (R) Trump: 45% (+6)
    (D) Biden: 39%

    (R) DeSantis: 41% (+1)
    (D) Biden: 40%
    .
    GOP PRES:
    • Trump — 59% (+45)
    • DeSantis — 14%
    • Pence — 8%
    • Haley — 4%
    • Ramaswamy — 3%
    • Scott — 2%
    • Christie — 2%

    Harris (B) | 06/14-15 | 2,090 RV

    https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1669814125319401475

    The implosion, or perhaps deflation, of the DeSantis campaign has been remarkable. Mike Pence is next. Could we see Pence rejoin the Trump ticket?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    From the daylight picture of Maysville Bridge, you can certainly see why German immigrants were reminded of the Rhine.

    And with Kari Lake in the frame, looks amazing like the old Luddendorf Bridge at Remagen.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludendorff_Bridge

    BTW, the book about the seizure of that bridge by US Army in 1945 for first Allied crossing of the Rhine, was written by a former Harry Truman speechwriter who went on to become a congressman from West Virginia and later WV Secretary of State - Ken Heckler.

    Was a great guy, he was my congressman before I could vote for him. Used to drive around the district during congressional breaks, in a VERY distinctive red jeep, going just about everywhere three or more were gathered together, and talking with everyone.

    Unfortunately his career in US House ended, when he ran for Governor but lost in the Democratic primary to Jay Rockefeller.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459

    NATIONAL POLL: Harvard/Harris

    PRES:
    (R) Trump: 45% (+6)
    (D) Biden: 39%

    (R) DeSantis: 41% (+1)
    (D) Biden: 40%
    .
    GOP PRES:
    • Trump — 59% (+45)
    • DeSantis — 14%
    • Pence — 8%
    • Haley — 4%
    • Ramaswamy — 3%
    • Scott — 2%
    • Christie — 2%

    Harris (B) | 06/14-15 | 2,090 RV

    https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1669814125319401475

    The implosion, or perhaps deflation, of the DeSantis campaign has been remarkable. Mike Pence is next. Could we see Pence rejoin the Trump ticket?
    Personally think that current Trump boomlet is more transitory than eternal.

    And that DeSantis has only begun to fight. At least he's stopped poking himself (at least recently) re; Disney.

    However, we shall see. And I don't have any money in the game . . . just my country and my hide!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Andy_JS said:

    This video of the lockdown party looks like a badly-acted spoof. Apparently it's real.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-91CpX6pE4A

    My own understanding, is that it shows the Undersecretary of State for Promotion of British Culture showing the Minister for Moat Dredging and Classical Studies, how to do the Funky Boris.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    Re: Harry Truman, no doubt part of his secret of success, was knowing not just when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em - but also when it was better to lose than to win.

    Guessing he'd had similar experiences as a US Senator, esp. fellow senators?

    And back in Kansas City with Jim Predergast, boss of KC, inveterate gambler (ultimately convicted of tax evasion on due to gambling debts) and the man who got Truman elected, first as county executive judge, then as US Senator.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,459
    For PBs answer to Huckleberry Finn

    https://www.rivercruiseusa.com/usa_river_maps.cfm
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    Somerset and Frome will be won by the LibDems.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    The mortgage situation is really grim. Faisal Islam's summary of the near-catastrophe is worth reading.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65931161

    An English person's home is their castle and I personally know of people in despair.

    This is a political disaster for the Sunak administration.

    'Our news teams have been deluged with examples of families in utter shock at hikes in mortgage rates of hundreds of pounds per month. It is regularly coming up in interviews on entirely separate stories, such as the jobs market, energy prices or long Covid.'

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    And for anyone saying this doesn't compare with the high rates in the 1970's, this is the powerful riposte:

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1669659240884064256

    House prices are 65 times higher now than in 1970, average wages are only 35 times higher. An interest rate of 10% in the 1970s is equivalent to one of just *2%* today.

    People are borrowing far more relative to their incomes.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    Heathener said:

    And for anyone saying this doesn't compare with the high rates in the 1970's, this is the powerful riposte:

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1669659240884064256

    House prices are 65 times higher now than in 1970, average wages are only 35 times higher. An interest rate of 10% in the 1970s is equivalent to one of just *2%* today.

    People are borrowing far more relative to their incomes.

    One difference from the 1970s is two-income households are far more common.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,477
    Andy_JS said:

    This video of the lockdown party looks like a badly-acted spoof. Apparently it's real.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-91CpX6pE4A

    What is the kremlinology behind leaking this video of a Tory lockdown party? It shows Shaun Bailey's campaign team, and Bailey has just been made a peer in Boris's resignation honours list. On the other hand, he is yesterday's news. Maybe the intended victims are Ben Mallet, given an OBE by Boris, and would-be Conservative candidate for Mayor of London Moz Hossain, whose campaign Mallet runs. Hossain is the one outed as a Remainer yesterday. Whoever filmed this must be getting a few phone calls. Also, why can you never find a fashion policeman when you need one?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    edited June 2023
    The really interesting by-election litmus is going to be Selby and Ainsty.

    Labour are 1/14 to take Uxbridge and Ruislip
    The LibDems will win Somerset and Frome
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West will be won by Labour from the SNP if it goes to a by-election (likely)
    The LibDems will win Mid-Beds if it goes to by-election

    It's Selby and Ainsty that's going to be an interesting one. Most commentators, myself included, don't think Labour will win it. But it's the size of the swing in this Brexit supporting North Yorkshire seat which will be an interesting litmus test for what's to come.

    Could Labour do the unthinkable and actually win it? Yes but it's unlikely. If they do, then Keir Mather will become the youngest MP. Maybe, just maybe, that will appeal. A bright fresh start. A Stephen Twigg moment?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    Heathener said:

    And for anyone saying this doesn't compare with the high rates in the 1970's, this is the powerful riposte:

    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1669659240884064256

    House prices are 65 times higher now than in 1970, average wages are only 35 times higher. An interest rate of 10% in the 1970s is equivalent to one of just *2%* today.

    People are borrowing far more relative to their incomes.

    One difference from the 1970s is two-income households are far more common.

    Currently, mortgage interest payments are running at 37% of incomes for first time buyers, which is uncomfortable, (for most of the past 10 years, it’s been 29-33%) but still well below the level that preceded the last two crashes in house
    prices (1990-93 and 2008-10).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    LibDem gain, nailed on.

    They just need to stop sending people to Beds, where an election probably won’t take place now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: Hulkenberg has a three place grid penalty.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    First rain here in about a month I think
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    edited June 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    This video of the lockdown party looks like a badly-acted spoof. Apparently it's real.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-91CpX6pE4A

    The Right would love to dismiss all this as yesterday's event and that we need to move on. However, it's clear from polling that this is not the national mood. Lockdowns and the pandemic were such an appalling time in our lives, with many dreadful stories. There is NO WAY it will not come up in the GE campaign and this will be another nail in the Conservative Sunak coffin.

    People need their blood-letting.

    https://twitter.com/DeborahMeaden/status/1670202186393870336

    https://twitter.com/WelshGasDoc/status/1670144402042306561



  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,083
    edited June 2023
    At this point I shall bid y'all good morning.

    To the odd handful of Righties who bemoan what they see as my repetitive remarks about the impending tory doom, even when I back them with new polls and links, I say tough shit.

    We've had 13 years of tory rule so it's your turn to suck it up.

    Have a nice day :smiley:

    xx
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Betting Post

    F1: backed Hamilton at 9.5 each way to win. Think he's got a strong shot at second on a circuit at which he's excelled over the years. Race expected to be dry. But even if it's wet he's not out of the running.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/06/canada-pre-race-2023.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    I'm in New England, and New Hampshire (generally) feels pretty rich. Maine, by contrast, felt much poorer.

    Vermont seemed very quiet and incredibly rural. Not poor, no obvious homelessness or drug issues. But not a lot to do.
    Rural America is REALLY boring, especially outside the South or away from anywhere with Civil War/Revolution history

    There’s nothing to see. You can drive for 200 miles and there might be a Museum of the American Thimble, and perhaps a well preserved 1930s Exxon garage

    Drive for 200 miles in Britain, France and Italy and you will pass 13 cathedrals, 218 castles, 1,927 medieval churches, a Stone Age ritual circle on ten, 63 towns founded by Romans, 143 ghost villages destroyed by the Black Death, and all the crowded hassles and issues that come with that density of history and settlement

    Chacon a son gout
    Vermont has lots of small mountains you can walk up, and if you’re lucky and there’s a fire tower or a big gap in the trees, sometimes you might even get a view when you get to the top, and be able to see the trees in the next mountain that you couldn’t see through the day before.

    I liked Vermont; safe, friendly and just a little weird. I can see why they keep electing Bernie.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    Betting Post

    F1: backed Hamilton at 9.5 each way to win. Think he's got a strong shot at second on a circuit at which he's excelled over the years. Race expected to be dry. But even if it's wet he's not out of the running.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/06/canada-pre-race-2023.html

    Ooh surprised Hulkenberg was put back. No action against Sainz for his almost parking it forcing Gasly off the track ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    I'm in New England, and New Hampshire (generally) feels pretty rich. Maine, by contrast, felt much poorer.

    Vermont seemed very quiet and incredibly rural. Not poor, no obvious homelessness or drug issues. But not a lot to do.
    Rural America is REALLY boring, especially outside the South or away from anywhere with Civil War/Revolution history

    There’s nothing to see. You can drive for 200 miles and there might be a Museum of the American Thimble, and perhaps a well preserved 1930s Exxon garage

    Drive for 200 miles in Britain, France and Italy and you will pass 13 cathedrals, 218 castles, 1,927 medieval churches, a Stone Age ritual circle on ten, 63 towns founded by Romans, 143 ghost villages destroyed by the Black Death, and all the crowded hassles and issues that come with that density of history and settlement

    Chacon a son gout
    Next time, take a river boat! Bring your gambler hat and dough and learn how to play poker on the pay-as-you-go-broke plan.

    Ohio is great cruising (wholesome or otherwise) river. So is the Upper MIssisissippi.

    The late, great John Hartford used to pilot a boat for fun on the Illinois River, wrote great songs about the rivers; before he hit it big as a songwriter, he worked as a bargeman on the Mississippi & etc.

    Julia Belle Swain - John Hartford
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VH8qObPiX04

    "Darker than the inside of a cow"!


    That’s actually a damn good idea for an article. All these massive and mighty rivers interconnect, right? You can go from the Ohio to the Mississippi etc

    It would be great to do your own cruise from Pennsylvania to Nawlins, stopping at mad little places en route
    When I was in La Crosse, which is in Wisconsin, I met people off a Mississippi cruise boat. So you can keep going a long way north.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    Leon said:

    Leon is now getting tantalizingly close to . . . wait for it . . . Big Bone Lick!

    AND he's just a few short miles from Blue Licks Battlefield State Resort Park.

    He was just at Point Pleasant,the site of the first battle of the American Revolutionary War (at least according to West Virginians). And Blue Licks is famed (at least by Kentuckians) as the LAST battle of the Revolution.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Licks_Battlefield_State_Resort_Park

    In 1782, British Captain William Caldwell led a force of Indians against the small Kentucky settlement of Bryan's Station. Caldwell met stiff resistance, and after two days, retreated toward the Ohio River. The pioneers – Daniel Boone among them – were inclined to wait for reinforcements before pursuing the enemy, and although under the general leadership of Major John Todd, Major Hugh McGary of the Lincoln County contingent made a brash and fateful decision to pursue immediately (after an insult for being timid from Todd), engaging Caldwell at Blue Licks. In the battle that followed, 60 of the 176 men who followed McGary were killed, Boone's son Israel among them. Another 7 were captured. The survivors fled back to Bryan's Station and Lexington. Reinforcements under [Benjamin Logan] eventually arrived and buried the dead militiamen.

    SSI - note that Major Todd was an ancestor of Mary Todd Lincoln. And Daniel Boone was, Daniel Boone.

    I’m now on my hotel balcony (a rare event in American hotels) and it has a fine view of the Maysville Bridge



    Good to see you’ve moved on from your Nazi ‘young Hitler’ memorabilia screensaver, at least.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,654

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Are the Russians preparing to claim victory and then fuck off out of Ukraine?

    "The Kyiv Independent
    @KyivIndependent
    ⚡ Kremlin spokesman claims Ukraine largely 'demilitarized'.

    Kremlin press secretary Dmitriy Peskov claimed that Russia's goal of "demilitarizing" Ukraine was largely completed, saying that it was using "fewer and fewer of its own weapons" and increasingly relying on weapons provided by the West."


    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1670168560700735489

    Would be one way to end the war before the Russian army completely disintegrates.

    It would indeed - were the Russians to unilaterally and completely withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea, I doubt there'd be many calling it anything other than a victory for Zelenskyy. However, if Putin wants to sell something different to his people, that's his business I suppose.
    I doubt if he'd be able to. Ultimately, withdrawing would be seen as a failure.

    It might not lead to his overthrow by the people, but I can imagine manoeuvres in the Kremlin would intensify.
    Russia seems to be on the upswing at the moment, using attack helicopters to fire air to ground and anti-tank missiles. This might provide Moscow with a chance to initiate peace talks on more favourable terms before Ukraine is supplied the wherewithal to shoot them down.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/17/russian-attack-helicopters-upper-hand-southern-ukraine/ (£££)
    Apparently they found some wherewithal:
    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/18/7407334/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=[twitter]&utm_campaign=[rogue_corq]
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Cyclefree said:

    In more "rewards for failure" news, this "honour" by Boris is utterly disgraceful - an award for Alex Chisholm, principal accounting officer for the Post Office 2016-2020, when it tried to stop 555 wrongfully convicted sub-postmasters from getting justice at the High Court.

    Far worse than Charlotte Owen to my mind.

    I bet they give one to Spielman too. Ok, what she's done isn't quite as bad as the Horizon scandal, but she's still left us without a functioning exam system, without a functioning inspection system and as a result very soon probably without a functioning school system.

    Sunil will have to update his 'house of unelected has-beens' to 'house of unelected crooks, liars and never weres.'
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,833

    Andy_JS said:

    This video of the lockdown party looks like a badly-acted spoof. Apparently it's real.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-91CpX6pE4A

    What is the kremlinology behind leaking this video of a Tory lockdown party? It shows Shaun Bailey's campaign team, and Bailey has just been made a peer in Boris's resignation honours list. On the other hand, he is yesterday's news. Maybe the intended victims are Ben Mallet, given an OBE by Boris, and would-be Conservative candidate for Mayor of London Moz Hossain, whose campaign Mallet runs. Hossain is the one outed as a Remainer yesterday. Whoever filmed this must be getting a few phone calls. Also, why can you never find a fashion policeman when you need one?
    .. or dance teachers...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Pulpstar, Sainz also got a 3 place grid penalty for just that incident.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In more "rewards for failure" news, this "honour" by Boris is utterly disgraceful - an award for Alex Chisholm, principal accounting officer for the Post Office 2016-2020, when it tried to stop 555 wrongfully convicted sub-postmasters from getting justice at the High Court.

    Far worse than Charlotte Owen to my mind.

    I bet they give one to Spielman too. Ok, what she's done isn't quite as bad as the Horizon scandal, but she's still left us without a functioning exam system, without a functioning inspection system and as a result very soon probably without a functioning school system.

    Sunil will have to update his 'house of unelected has-beens' to 'house of unelected crooks, liars and never weres.'
    Once you reach a certain point amongst the great and the good it is literally impossible, short of being a double murderer or some such to fail, and if you do fail to fail upwards.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,297
    Heathener said:

    The mortgage situation is really grim. Faisal Islam's summary of the near-catastrophe is worth reading.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65931161

    An English person's home is their castle and I personally know of people in despair.

    This is a political disaster for the Sunak administration.

    'Our news teams have been deluged with examples of families in utter shock at hikes in mortgage rates of hundreds of pounds per month. It is regularly coming up in interviews on entirely separate stories, such as the jobs market, energy prices or long Covid.'

    The political opportunity here is to present these interest rate rises and the indifference shown about them by the Conservative party as another wealth transfer from working people, to pensioners and those who live off capital, ie the people who overwhelmingly vote conservative.

    The 'intergenerational fairness' problems in society will eventually find a political expression and I think this could be the trigger - lots of young people with high mortgages and in fear about the situation.
  • EPG said:

    re discussion earlier, Germany has great public prosperity in the rich parts; travel around the southern Laender and they look neat). But if you were to live there you'd accept a downward personal endowment of stuff compared to USA/UK. Most of all in housing, as you'd likely be renting a small apartment.

    Compared to the USA, maybe, but not compared to the UK. Germans have more floor area per capita than we do, and I would guess that it is more equitably distributed.

    https://entranze.enerdata.net/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In more "rewards for failure" news, this "honour" by Boris is utterly disgraceful - an award for Alex Chisholm, principal accounting officer for the Post Office 2016-2020, when it tried to stop 555 wrongfully convicted sub-postmasters from getting justice at the High Court.

    Far worse than Charlotte Owen to my mind.

    I bet they give one to Spielman too. Ok, what she's done isn't quite as bad as the Horizon scandal, but she's still left us without a functioning exam system, without a functioning inspection system and as a result very soon probably without a functioning school system.

    Sunil will have to update his 'house of unelected has-beens' to 'house of unelected crooks, liars and never weres.'
    Once you reach a certain point amongst the great and the good it is literally impossible, short of being a double murderer or some such to fail, and if you do fail to fail upwards.
    You could make a tenable case that the Horizon saga involved multiple murders, although I don't know how involved Chisholm was in that side of things.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    edited June 2023
    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    The mortgage situation is really grim. Faisal Islam's summary of the near-catastrophe is worth reading.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65931161

    An English person's home is their castle and I personally know of people in despair.

    This is a political disaster for the Sunak administration.

    'Our news teams have been deluged with examples of families in utter shock at hikes in mortgage rates of hundreds of pounds per month. It is regularly coming up in interviews on entirely separate stories, such as the jobs market, energy prices or long Covid.'

    The political opportunity here is to present these interest rate rises and the indifference shown about them by the Conservative party as another wealth transfer from working people, to pensioners and those who live off capital, ie the people who overwhelmingly vote conservative.

    The 'intergenerational fairness' problems in society will eventually find a political expression and I think this could be the trigger - lots of young people with high mortgages and in fear about the situation.
    This is a lazy analysis. Anyone with any savings is still losing money, even with the recent interest rate rises. They've been losing money for years when interest rates were held down to ludicrously low levels. Both those with mortgages and those with cash savings are losing out. That is what happens when you don't control inflation.

    That is why it is so dangerous for governments. Pretty much everyone is losing. Pretty much everyone is affected by the high cost of living. There are few winners when the economy is suffering from inflation and is barely avoiding recession.

    Edited: I agree there is an inter generational fairness point. I disagree that interest rates are somehow evidence of governments favouring the old over the young. If anything having interest rates at such a low level for so long has distorted the economy in ways which have harmed many groups and favoured others in ways which are unfair and economically unsound.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,100
    Heathener said:

    The mortgage situation is really grim. Faisal Islam's summary of the near-catastrophe is worth reading.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65931161

    An English person's home is their castle and I personally know of people in despair.

    This is a political disaster for the Sunak administration.

    'Our news teams have been deluged with examples of families in utter shock at hikes in mortgage rates of hundreds of pounds per month. It is regularly coming up in interviews on entirely separate stories, such as the jobs market, energy prices or long Covid.'

    Andrew Neil has a piece which is more on how this is troublesome for the,Tories.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12204401/ANDREW-NEIL-Tories-managed-enrage-Generation-Rent-Generation-Mortgage.html
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    I went for a pint in Brexit Central and everybody’s rather bitter

    A wish for sovereignty drove voters in Clacton-on-Sea to Leave. But optimism has given way to anger

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i-went-for-a-pint-in-brexit-central-and-everybodys-rather-bitter-mmbnccpcs
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    edited June 2023
    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    The mortgage situation is really grim. Faisal Islam's summary of the near-catastrophe is worth reading.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65931161

    An English person's home is their castle and I personally know of people in despair.

    This is a political disaster for the Sunak administration.

    'Our news teams have been deluged with examples of families in utter shock at hikes in mortgage rates of hundreds of pounds per month. It is regularly coming up in interviews on entirely separate stories, such as the jobs market, energy prices or long Covid.'

    Andrew Neil has a piece which is more on how this is troublesome for the,Tories.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12204401/ANDREW-NEIL-Tories-managed-enrage-Generation-Rent-Generation-Mortgage.html
    It's interesting, but I was not totally convinced. Largely because he talked about two years ago two year fixed rate mortgages being available at 2.59% - the actual figure I was quoted was 1.62%, and I managed to fix mine at 1.67% for five years.

    Edit - I suppose of course that does make his point more serious still, but it also left me wondering what else in the article was wrong.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In more "rewards for failure" news, this "honour" by Boris is utterly disgraceful - an award for Alex Chisholm, principal accounting officer for the Post Office 2016-2020, when it tried to stop 555 wrongfully convicted sub-postmasters from getting justice at the High Court.

    Far worse than Charlotte Owen to my mind.

    I bet they give one to Spielman too. Ok, what she's done isn't quite as bad as the Horizon scandal, but she's still left us without a functioning exam system, without a functioning inspection system and as a result very soon probably without a functioning school system.

    Sunil will have to update his 'house of unelected has-beens' to 'house of unelected crooks, liars and never weres.'
    Once you reach a certain point amongst the great and the good it is literally impossible, short of being a double murderer or some such to fail, and if you do fail to fail upwards.
    You could make a tenable case that the Horizon saga involved multiple murders, although I don't know how involved Chisholm was in that side of things.
    He was in charge of accounting at the Post Office. All of the people involved in senior management bear some of the responsibility. The inquiry has yet to finish. No honour should have been given to anyone in Post Office senior management until that inquiry reported.

    Whatever due diligence is being done on those put forward for honours is simply not fit for purpose.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Scott_xP said:

    I went for a pint in Brexit Central and everybody’s rather bitter

    Glad to hear they've moved off the Continental lagers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In more "rewards for failure" news, this "honour" by Boris is utterly disgraceful - an award for Alex Chisholm, principal accounting officer for the Post Office 2016-2020, when it tried to stop 555 wrongfully convicted sub-postmasters from getting justice at the High Court.

    Far worse than Charlotte Owen to my mind.

    I bet they give one to Spielman too. Ok, what she's done isn't quite as bad as the Horizon scandal, but she's still left us without a functioning exam system, without a functioning inspection system and as a result very soon probably without a functioning school system.

    Sunil will have to update his 'house of unelected has-beens' to 'house of unelected crooks, liars and never weres.'
    Once you reach a certain point amongst the great and the good it is literally impossible, short of being a double murderer or some such to fail, and if you do fail to fail upwards.
    You could make a tenable case that the Horizon saga involved multiple murders, although I don't know how involved Chisholm was in that side of things.
    He was in charge of accounting at the Post Office. All of the people involved in senior management bear some of the responsibility. The inquiry has yet to finish. No honour should have been given to anyone in Post Office senior management until that inquiry reported.

    Whatever due diligence is being done on those put forward for honours is simply not fit for purpose.
    They do due diligence?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    The mortgage situation is really grim. Faisal Islam's summary of the near-catastrophe is worth reading.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65931161

    An English person's home is their castle and I personally know of people in despair.

    This is a political disaster for the Sunak administration.

    'Our news teams have been deluged with examples of families in utter shock at hikes in mortgage rates of hundreds of pounds per month. It is regularly coming up in interviews on entirely separate stories, such as the jobs market, energy prices or long Covid.'

    The political opportunity here is to present these interest rate rises and the indifference shown about them by the Conservative party as another wealth transfer from working people, to pensioners and those who live off capital, ie the people who overwhelmingly vote conservative.

    The 'intergenerational fairness' problems in society will eventually find a political expression and I think this could be the trigger - lots of young people with high mortgages and in fear about the situation.
    Isn't the problem that a lot of young people cannot get mortgages but are stuck paying very high rents for inadequate accommodation? As well as people with high mortgages having got used to low interest rates?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In more "rewards for failure" news, this "honour" by Boris is utterly disgraceful - an award for Alex Chisholm, principal accounting officer for the Post Office 2016-2020, when it tried to stop 555 wrongfully convicted sub-postmasters from getting justice at the High Court.

    Far worse than Charlotte Owen to my mind.

    I bet they give one to Spielman too. Ok, what she's done isn't quite as bad as the Horizon scandal, but she's still left us without a functioning exam system, without a functioning inspection system and as a result very soon probably without a functioning school system.

    Sunil will have to update his 'house of unelected has-beens' to 'house of unelected crooks, liars and never weres.'
    Once you reach a certain point amongst the great and the good it is literally impossible, short of being a double murderer or some such to fail, and if you do fail to fail upwards.
    You could make a tenable case that the Horizon saga involved multiple murders, although I don't know how involved Chisholm was in that side of things.
    He was in charge of accounting at the Post Office. All of the people involved in senior management bear some of the responsibility. The inquiry has yet to finish. No honour should have been given to anyone in Post Office senior management until that inquiry reported.

    Whatever due diligence is being done on those put forward for honours is simply not fit for purpose.
    They do due diligence?
    Obviously not.

    They should.

    But as I have been boring on for about 12 years now at least, both professionally and on here, due diligence is an utter fucking joke in this country.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Scott_xP said:

    I went for a pint in Brexit Central and everybody’s rather bitter

    A wish for sovereignty drove voters in Clacton-on-Sea to Leave. But optimism has given way to anger

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i-went-for-a-pint-in-brexit-central-and-everybodys-rather-bitter-mmbnccpcs

    Brexit is a racist endeavour.

    In the Moon and Starfish, a Wetherspoon’s pub on the Clacton seafront, the day drinking crowd were well into their third pints by Thursday lunchtime. When I brought up Brexit, it was viewed with a sense of wasted opportunity, like a football team who had thrown away a two-goal lead.

    “I expected problems from day one. It’s the British way,” said Trevor, 77, a retired commodities trader. “I hoped it would be good, but it hasn’t panned out; the politicians have let us down as usual. Boris is an arsehole. He’s always been an arsehole.”

    “Independence” and “standing on our own two feet” were the most common rationales I heard for Brexit, but, like many in Clacton, Trevor had also hoped that leaving the EU would allow the government to drastically reduce immigration. Clearly, this hasn’t happened. “We need to stop the boats — this country is full,” he said. Then he looked at me. “I’m not being rude to you, but it’s to stop the n*****s coming in.” Right then.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I can confirm that Kentucky is a lot prettier than West Virginia. The countryside is gently idyllic and everything just looks better


    You are not tooo far from Flatwoods KY, home hamlet of Bill Ray Cyrus, father of Miley Cyrus.
    Kentucky is still quite a poor state, tho, right? Statista tells me it is in the bottom ten and poorer than Louisiana, which surprises me

    USA wealth stats are bewildering. In Europe they usually make visible sense (Ireland apart). You can generally see them with your own eyes. Switzerland really is that wealthy and so on

    America is more mystifying
    I'm in New England, and New Hampshire (generally) feels pretty rich. Maine, by contrast, felt much poorer.

    Vermont seemed very quiet and incredibly rural. Not poor, no obvious homelessness or drug issues. But not a lot to do.
    Folks in Mass. call Maine "the Blue Tarp State" referencing the blue tarps that (they say) Maine-iacs use for covering (up) rotting boats, dilapidated houses, falling barns, piles of trash, etc., etc.

    Addendum - Vermont is a slightly more upscale, FAR more tidy AND colder version of West Virginia. What do do? Watch the leaves turn, then the sap run!
    I’m going to Maine and New Hampshire for a couple of weeks in August. Driving up the coast from Boston to St John, NB then back inland via Bangor and into NH to see Mt Washington. Being a political geek I will also be taking in Dixville Notch.

    I have Boothbay/Pemaquid on my list and Acadia/Bar Harbor. Also a tremendous number of craft breweries. Any other tips and must sees welcome….
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    That Times article does contain a couple of fundamental inaccuracies.

    Says Carswell was UKIP's first and only elected MP, I mean have they forgotten Mark Reckless?

    Secondly, they save the Clacton by-election convinced David Cameron to announce the referendum, err he announced it long before the Carswell defecting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited June 2023
    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    Very first world problem to have!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    Cyclefree said:

    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    The mortgage situation is really grim. Faisal Islam's summary of the near-catastrophe is worth reading.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65931161

    An English person's home is their castle and I personally know of people in despair.

    This is a political disaster for the Sunak administration.

    'Our news teams have been deluged with examples of families in utter shock at hikes in mortgage rates of hundreds of pounds per month. It is regularly coming up in interviews on entirely separate stories, such as the jobs market, energy prices or long Covid.'

    The political opportunity here is to present these interest rate rises and the indifference shown about them by the Conservative party as another wealth transfer from working people, to pensioners and those who live off capital, ie the people who overwhelmingly vote conservative.

    The 'intergenerational fairness' problems in society will eventually find a political expression and I think this could be the trigger - lots of young people with high mortgages and in fear about the situation.
    This is a lazy analysis. Anyone with any savings is still losing money, even with the recent interest rate rises. They've been losing money for years when interest rates were held down to ludicrously low levels. Both those with mortgages and those with cash savings are losing out. That is what happens when you don't control inflation.

    That is why it is so dangerous for governments. Pretty much everyone is losing. Pretty much everyone is affected by the high cost of living. There are few winners when the economy is suffering from inflation and is barely avoiding recession.

    Edited: I agree there is an inter generational fairness point. I disagree that interest rates are somehow evidence of governments favouring the old over the young. If anything having interest rates at such a low level for so long has distorted the economy in ways which have harmed many groups and favoured others in ways which are unfair and economically unsound.
    Interest rates had to be cut to near zero in the pandemic. But, there was no good reason to keep them so low, from 2010 to 2020, which only fuelled asset prices.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    ydoethur said:

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    Very first world problem to have!
    Indeed.

    Fraser’s monthly mortgage payments have gone up from £8,300 a month to £20,000. “If things were to carry on this way, we would be looking to pull our three kids out of school – which costs us £45,000 a year – and possibly be looking to sell the house too.”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    The mortgage situation is really grim. Faisal Islam's summary of the near-catastrophe is worth reading.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65931161

    An English person's home is their castle and I personally know of people in despair.

    This is a political disaster for the Sunak administration.

    'Our news teams have been deluged with examples of families in utter shock at hikes in mortgage rates of hundreds of pounds per month. It is regularly coming up in interviews on entirely separate stories, such as the jobs market, energy prices or long Covid.'

    The political opportunity here is to present these interest rate rises and the indifference shown about them by the Conservative party as another wealth transfer from working people, to pensioners and those who live off capital, ie the people who overwhelmingly vote conservative.

    The 'intergenerational fairness' problems in society will eventually find a political expression and I think this could be the trigger - lots of young people with high mortgages and in fear about the situation.
    This is a lazy analysis. Anyone with any savings is still losing money, even with the recent interest rate rises. They've been losing money for years when interest rates were held down to ludicrously low levels. Both those with mortgages and those with cash savings are losing out. That is what happens when you don't control inflation.

    That is why it is so dangerous for governments. Pretty much everyone is losing. Pretty much everyone is affected by the high cost of living. There are few winners when the economy is suffering from inflation and is barely avoiding recession.

    Edited: I agree there is an inter generational fairness point. I disagree that interest rates are somehow evidence of governments favouring the old over the young. If anything having interest rates at such a low level for so long has distorted the economy in ways which have harmed many groups and favoured others in ways which are unfair and economically unsound.
    Interest rates had to be cut to near zero in the pandemic. But, there was no good reason to keep them so low, from 2010 to 2020, which only fuelled asset prices.
    Isn't the problem that they were only supposed to be raised to combat inflation, and on the archaic measure the BoE uses there wasn't very much of it?

    Which tells me they were using the wrong measure, looking at house price inflation!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    ydoethur said:

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    Very first world problem to have!
    Indeed.

    Fraser’s monthly mortgage payments have gone up from £8,300 a month to £20,000. “If things were to carry on this way, we would be looking to pull our three kids out of school – which costs us £45,000 a year – and possibly be looking to sell the house too.”
    It’s like articles about “the plight of second home owners.”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    edited June 2023

    ydoethur said:

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    Very first world problem to have!
    Indeed.

    Fraser’s monthly mortgage payments have gone up from £8,300 a month to £20,000. “If things were to carry on this way, we would be looking to pull our three kids out of school – which costs us £45,000 a year – and possibly be looking to sell the house too.”
    How come the stupid bastard didn't go for a long term fixed rate?

    I saw this coming eighteen months ago and I'm no expert. Is he an investment fund manager or something if he's that dim and overpaid?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    darkage said:

    Heathener said:

    The mortgage situation is really grim. Faisal Islam's summary of the near-catastrophe is worth reading.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65931161

    An English person's home is their castle and I personally know of people in despair.

    This is a political disaster for the Sunak administration.

    'Our news teams have been deluged with examples of families in utter shock at hikes in mortgage rates of hundreds of pounds per month. It is regularly coming up in interviews on entirely separate stories, such as the jobs market, energy prices or long Covid.'

    The political opportunity here is to present these interest rate rises and the indifference shown about them by the Conservative party as another wealth transfer from working people, to pensioners and those who live off capital, ie the people who overwhelmingly vote conservative.

    The 'intergenerational fairness' problems in society will eventually find a political expression and I think this could be the trigger - lots of young people with high mortgages and in fear about the situation.
    This is a lazy analysis. Anyone with any savings is still losing money, even with the recent interest rate rises. They've been losing money for years when interest rates were held down to ludicrously low levels. Both those with mortgages and those with cash savings are losing out. That is what happens when you don't control inflation.

    That is why it is so dangerous for governments. Pretty much everyone is losing. Pretty much everyone is affected by the high cost of living. There are few winners when the economy is suffering from inflation and is barely avoiding recession.

    Edited: I agree there is an inter generational fairness point. I disagree that interest rates are somehow evidence of governments favouring the old over the young. If anything having interest rates at such a low level for so long has distorted the economy in ways which have harmed many groups and favoured others in ways which are unfair and economically unsound.
    Interest rates had to be cut to near zero in the pandemic. But, there was no good reason to keep them so low, from 2010 to 2020, which only fuelled asset prices.
    Isn't the problem that they were only supposed to be raised to combat inflation, and on the archaic measure the BoE uses there wasn't very much of it?

    Which tells me they were using the wrong measure, looking at house price inflation!
    Plainly, the B o E should have been considering house prices (as they should in 2000-07).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Because that would mean admitting the problem is the numerous epic fuckups by the government.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,659

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    If that's the Telegraph's idea of middle class then I must be working class.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777

    Scott_xP said:

    I went for a pint in Brexit Central and everybody’s rather bitter

    A wish for sovereignty drove voters in Clacton-on-Sea to Leave. But optimism has given way to anger

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i-went-for-a-pint-in-brexit-central-and-everybodys-rather-bitter-mmbnccpcs

    Brexit is a racist endeavour.

    In the Moon and Starfish, a Wetherspoon’s pub on the Clacton seafront, the day drinking crowd were well into their third pints by Thursday lunchtime. When I brought up Brexit, it was viewed with a sense of wasted opportunity, like a football team who had thrown away a two-goal lead.

    “I expected problems from day one. It’s the British way,” said Trevor, 77, a retired commodities trader. “I hoped it would be good, but it hasn’t panned out; the politicians have let us down as usual. Boris is an arsehole. He’s always been an arsehole.”

    “Independence” and “standing on our own two feet” were the most common rationales I heard for Brexit, but, like many in Clacton, Trevor had also hoped that leaving the EU would allow the government to drastically reduce immigration. Clearly, this hasn’t happened. “We need to stop the boats — this country is full,” he said. Then he looked at me. “I’m not being rude to you, but it’s to stop the n*****s coming in.” Right then.
    I hear similar all the time from people of that generation. I’m not racist but….. type stuff. From the Boomer generation who grew up in a white country.

    The question is how different are the Gen Xers and Millennials who have grown up in an increasingly multicultural society? Much more tolerant in the main? If Brexit was primarily about enabling a dying generation to express its racism, then it’s unsustainable.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    Very first world problem to have!
    Indeed.

    Fraser’s monthly mortgage payments have gone up from £8,300 a month to £20,000. “If things were to carry on this way, we would be looking to pull our three kids out of school – which costs us £45,000 a year – and possibly be looking to sell the house too.”
    How come the stupid bastard didn't go for a long term fixed rate?

    I saw this coming eighteen months ago and I'm no expert. Is he an investment fund manager or something if he's that dim and overpaid?
    Probably runs a hedge fund.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    Very first world problem to have!
    Indeed.

    Fraser’s monthly mortgage payments have gone up from £8,300 a month to £20,000. “If things were to carry on this way, we would be looking to pull our three kids out of school – which costs us £45,000 a year – and possibly be looking to sell the house too.”
    How come the stupid bastard didn't go for a long term fixed rate?

    I saw this coming eighteen months ago and I'm no expert. Is he an investment fund manager or something if he's that dim and overpaid?
    Probably runs a hedge fund.
    Then he deserves to be trimmed down a bit.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,659
    ydoethur said:

    Because that would mean admitting the problem is the numerous epic fuckups by the government.
    We can't afford for these muppets to be in power a moment longer - they are shitting all over my kids' future.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    Scott_xP said:

    I went for a pint in Brexit Central and everybody’s rather bitter

    A wish for sovereignty drove voters in Clacton-on-Sea to Leave. But optimism has given way to anger

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i-went-for-a-pint-in-brexit-central-and-everybodys-rather-bitter-mmbnccpcs

    Brexit is a racist endeavour.

    In the Moon and Starfish, a Wetherspoon’s pub on the Clacton seafront, the day drinking crowd were well into their third pints by Thursday lunchtime. When I brought up Brexit, it was viewed with a sense of wasted opportunity, like a football team who had thrown away a two-goal lead.

    “I expected problems from day one. It’s the British way,” said Trevor, 77, a retired commodities trader. “I hoped it would be good, but it hasn’t panned out; the politicians have let us down as usual. Boris is an arsehole. He’s always been an arsehole.”

    “Independence” and “standing on our own two feet” were the most common rationales I heard for Brexit, but, like many in Clacton, Trevor had also hoped that leaving the EU would allow the government to drastically reduce immigration. Clearly, this hasn’t happened. “We need to stop the boats — this country is full,” he said. Then he looked at me. “I’m not being rude to you, but it’s to stop the n*****s coming in.” Right then.
    I hear similar all the time from people of that generation. I’m not racist but….. type stuff. From the Boomer generation who grew up in a white country.

    The question is how different are the Gen Xers and Millennials who have grown up in an increasingly multicultural society? Much more tolerant in the main? If Brexit was primarily about enabling a dying generation to express its racism, then it’s unsustainable.
    One of the things that struck me about the Yorkshire Cricket Club racism scandal is that those involved were considerably younger than me. Ditto police officers who get caught up in such scandals.

    I’m Gen X.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,197
    Andy_JS said:

    This video of the lockdown party looks like a badly-acted spoof. Apparently it's real.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-91CpX6pE4A

    The two dancing will be very mortified, if I had been seen like that I would never leave the house ever again. Horrendous video and it does show Tories at their best, like a bad version of Abigail's Party.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    edited June 2023

    ydoethur said:

    Because that would mean admitting the problem is the numerous epic fuckups by the government.
    We can't afford for these muppets to be in power a moment longer - they are shitting all over my kids' future.
    Sadly, even if Labour get in the main problems remain the civil servants involved and that will not change. Indeed, it might actually get worse given the dependence of Labour on the public sector client vote and their tendency to look at the wrong problems.

    Ultimately, I am afraid that I do not see things improving short of a major system wide collapse and a reboot, which I would say is likely to happen in three to four years on current trajectory.

    It may be sooner if there is any further meddling with TPS such as allowing academy chains to opt out of it, because at that point there is no financial advantage at all to being on payroll rather than being on supply and setting your own rates and hours (the first would be higher and the second shorter).

    I had been wondering though why nobody blinked at me demanding north of £40,000 for a year long contract to teach English while setting my own terms on hours and locations plus a travel rate. I had actually set those terms expecting they wouldn't be met!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,659
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    Very first world problem to have!
    Indeed.

    Fraser’s monthly mortgage payments have gone up from £8,300 a month to £20,000. “If things were to carry on this way, we would be looking to pull our three kids out of school – which costs us £45,000 a year – and possibly be looking to sell the house too.”
    How come the stupid bastard didn't go for a long term fixed rate?

    I saw this coming eighteen months ago and I'm no expert. Is he an investment fund manager or something if he's that dim and overpaid?
    It's completely idiotic and I have zero sympathy. I do feel for people on average incomes who over extended themselves to buy a normal house in our crazy housing market, but anyone with that kind of money can afford a decent home without going massively into unaffordable debt. I used a decade of good earnings to pay off our mortgage on our perfectly nice but not huge or luxurious house completely rather than leveraging myself up to the eyeballs to buy a show home I can barely afford. Interest rates go up as well as down. Now he has to take his kids out of private school? Oh no, how will they cope! What an over entitled prick.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    On topic, Warburton's toast.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,675
    Will the Met investigate the party now the video has been released?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    On topic, Warburton's toast.

    Off topic, anyone else decided to stop buying Warburton's after those epochally ghastly and hastily withdrawn ads they put on a couple of months ago?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,833
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    Very first world problem to have!
    Indeed.

    Fraser’s monthly mortgage payments have gone up from £8,300 a month to £20,000. “If things were to carry on this way, we would be looking to pull our three kids out of school – which costs us £45,000 a year – and possibly be looking to sell the house too.”
    How come the stupid bastard didn't go for a long term fixed rate?

    I saw this coming eighteen months ago and I'm no expert. Is he an investment fund manager or something if he's that dim and overpaid?
    Probably runs a hedge fund.
    Then he deserves to be trimmed down a bit.
    boom boom
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    Very first world problem to have!
    Indeed.

    Fraser’s monthly mortgage payments have gone up from £8,300 a month to £20,000. “If things were to carry on this way, we would be looking to pull our three kids out of school – which costs us £45,000 a year – and possibly be looking to sell the house too.”
    How come the stupid bastard didn't go for a long term fixed rate?

    I saw this coming eighteen months ago and I'm no expert. Is he an investment fund manager or something if he's that dim and overpaid?
    Probably runs a hedge fund.
    Then he deserves to be trimmed down a bit.
    boom boom
    Shall we leaf that there?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I went for a pint in Brexit Central and everybody’s rather bitter

    A wish for sovereignty drove voters in Clacton-on-Sea to Leave. But optimism has given way to anger

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i-went-for-a-pint-in-brexit-central-and-everybodys-rather-bitter-mmbnccpcs

    Brexit is a racist endeavour.

    In the Moon and Starfish, a Wetherspoon’s pub on the Clacton seafront, the day drinking crowd were well into their third pints by Thursday lunchtime. When I brought up Brexit, it was viewed with a sense of wasted opportunity, like a football team who had thrown away a two-goal lead.

    “I expected problems from day one. It’s the British way,” said Trevor, 77, a retired commodities trader. “I hoped it would be good, but it hasn’t panned out; the politicians have let us down as usual. Boris is an arsehole. He’s always been an arsehole.”

    “Independence” and “standing on our own two feet” were the most common rationales I heard for Brexit, but, like many in Clacton, Trevor had also hoped that leaving the EU would allow the government to drastically reduce immigration. Clearly, this hasn’t happened. “We need to stop the boats — this country is full,” he said. Then he looked at me. “I’m not being rude to you, but it’s to stop the n*****s coming in.” Right then.
    I hear similar all the time from people of that generation. I’m not racist but….. type stuff. From the Boomer generation who grew up in a white country.

    The question is how different are the Gen Xers and Millennials who have grown up in an increasingly multicultural society? Much more tolerant in the main? If Brexit was primarily about enabling a dying generation to express its racism, then it’s unsustainable.
    One of the things that struck me about the Yorkshire Cricket Club racism scandal is that those involved were considerably younger than me. Ditto police officers who get caught up in such scandals.

    I’m Gen X.
    Anyone thinking that the young are somehow free of prejudice needs to get out into the real world. Look at the misogyny, racism and homophobia we have seen described in many institutions and the people exhibiting these - many of them young. These prejudices just take different forms and get packaged differently. Sexism towards women is quite shocking and often comes from young men against women of all ages, for instance. There are also some pretty unpleasant descriptions of old people by the young - sometimes on this forum.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,028
    edited June 2023
    The other problem with English teachers might be that the current English qualifications are actually very different from the ones anyone other than new graduates would have studied.

    This year's cohort would have been the first to study the new GCSE and A-level, which flipped from textual to contextual approach. So much so that it's a damn sight easier for me as a History teacher to teach Eng Lit qualifications than for my semi-retired friend and fellow tutor who's been teaching it for forty years and now confines herself to language.

    All older staff have been finding the adjustment pretty tough, especially given the enormous pressure they're under to get good results in the subject. No wonder they're quitting in droves.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,215
    .
    Cyclefree said:

    In more "rewards for failure" news, this "honour" by Boris is utterly disgraceful - an award for Alex Chisholm, principal accounting officer for the Post Office 2016-2020, when it tried to stop 555 wrongfully convicted sub-postmasters from getting justice at the High Court.

    Far worse than Charlotte Owen to my mind.

    WTAF ??
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,215
    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I went for a pint in Brexit Central and everybody’s rather bitter

    A wish for sovereignty drove voters in Clacton-on-Sea to Leave. But optimism has given way to anger

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i-went-for-a-pint-in-brexit-central-and-everybodys-rather-bitter-mmbnccpcs

    Brexit is a racist endeavour.

    In the Moon and Starfish, a Wetherspoon’s pub on the Clacton seafront, the day drinking crowd were well into their third pints by Thursday lunchtime. When I brought up Brexit, it was viewed with a sense of wasted opportunity, like a football team who had thrown away a two-goal lead.

    “I expected problems from day one. It’s the British way,” said Trevor, 77, a retired commodities trader. “I hoped it would be good, but it hasn’t panned out; the politicians have let us down as usual. Boris is an arsehole. He’s always been an arsehole.”

    “Independence” and “standing on our own two feet” were the most common rationales I heard for Brexit, but, like many in Clacton, Trevor had also hoped that leaving the EU would allow the government to drastically reduce immigration. Clearly, this hasn’t happened. “We need to stop the boats — this country is full,” he said. Then he looked at me. “I’m not being rude to you, but it’s to stop the n*****s coming in.” Right then.
    I hear similar all the time from people of that generation. I’m not racist but….. type stuff. From the Boomer generation who grew up in a white country.

    The question is how different are the Gen Xers and Millennials who have grown up in an increasingly multicultural society? Much more tolerant in the main? If Brexit was primarily about enabling a dying generation to express its racism, then it’s unsustainable.
    One of the things that struck me about the Yorkshire Cricket Club racism scandal is that those involved were considerably younger than me. Ditto police officers who get caught up in such scandals.

    I’m Gen X.
    Anyone thinking that the young are somehow free of prejudice needs to get out into the real world. Look at the misogyny, racism and homophobia we have seen described in many institutions and the people exhibiting these - many of them young. These prejudices just take different forms and get packaged differently. Sexism towards women is quite shocking and often comes from young men against women of all ages, for instance..
    It does - but it always did.
    Is it better or worse than a generation ago ? My impression (FWIW) is that it's a bit better - am I wrong ?

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Scott_xP said:

    Will the Met investigate the party now the video has been released?

    Both the Met and the Gray investigations were, frankly, rubbish. The Gray report was pretty poor.

    But despite all this many of the officials involved in organising all these rule breaking parties are being honoured. So why would anyone change their behaviour? All we've learnt is that you can behave in the most appalling and dishonest ways possible and still be rewarded - with money and honours - and lucrative new posts, everyone from the PM down.

    Even mere incompetence is not enough to stop you getting new posts.

    It's those of us who think that competence and integrity should matter who are the mugs, more fools us.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,215

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    Very first world problem to have!
    Indeed.

    Fraser’s monthly mortgage payments have gone up from £8,300 a month to £20,000. “If things were to carry on this way, we would be looking to pull our three kids out of school – which costs us £45,000 a year – and possibly be looking to sell the house too.”
    How come the stupid bastard didn't go for a long term fixed rate?

    I saw this coming eighteen months ago and I'm no expert. Is he an investment fund manager or something if he's that dim and overpaid?
    It's completely idiotic and I have zero sympathy. I do feel for people on average incomes who over extended themselves to buy a normal house in our crazy housing market, but anyone with that kind of money can afford a decent home without going massively into unaffordable debt. I used a decade of good earnings to pay off our mortgage on our perfectly nice but not huge or luxurious house completely rather than leveraging myself up to the eyeballs to buy a show home I can barely afford. Interest rates go up as well as down. Now he has to take his kids out of private school? Oh no, how will they cope! What an over entitled prick.
    Is the story supposed to elicit sympathy - or is it rather a somewhat vivid illustration of the likely economic fallout ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I went for a pint in Brexit Central and everybody’s rather bitter

    A wish for sovereignty drove voters in Clacton-on-Sea to Leave. But optimism has given way to anger

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i-went-for-a-pint-in-brexit-central-and-everybodys-rather-bitter-mmbnccpcs

    Brexit is a racist endeavour.

    In the Moon and Starfish, a Wetherspoon’s pub on the Clacton seafront, the day drinking crowd were well into their third pints by Thursday lunchtime. When I brought up Brexit, it was viewed with a sense of wasted opportunity, like a football team who had thrown away a two-goal lead.

    “I expected problems from day one. It’s the British way,” said Trevor, 77, a retired commodities trader. “I hoped it would be good, but it hasn’t panned out; the politicians have let us down as usual. Boris is an arsehole. He’s always been an arsehole.”

    “Independence” and “standing on our own two feet” were the most common rationales I heard for Brexit, but, like many in Clacton, Trevor had also hoped that leaving the EU would allow the government to drastically reduce immigration. Clearly, this hasn’t happened. “We need to stop the boats — this country is full,” he said. Then he looked at me. “I’m not being rude to you, but it’s to stop the n*****s coming in.” Right then.
    I hear similar all the time from people of that generation. I’m not racist but….. type stuff. From the Boomer generation who grew up in a white country.

    The question is how different are the Gen Xers and Millennials who have grown up in an increasingly multicultural society? Much more tolerant in the main? If Brexit was primarily about enabling a dying generation to express its racism, then it’s unsustainable.
    One of the things that struck me about the Yorkshire Cricket Club racism scandal is that those involved were considerably younger than me. Ditto police officers who get caught up in such scandals.

    I’m Gen X.
    Anyone thinking that the young are somehow free of prejudice needs to get out into the real world. Look at the misogyny, racism and homophobia we have seen described in many institutions and the people exhibiting these - many of them young. These prejudices just take different forms and get packaged differently. Sexism towards women is quite shocking and often comes from young men against women of all ages, for instance..
    It does - but it always did.
    Is it better or worse than a generation ago ? My impression (FWIW) is that it's a bit better - am I wrong ?

    I see more lip service being paid. But as far as attitudes to women are concerned I think we are in some ways going backwards. There is a self-righteousness about the way anti-women prejudice is expressed now which makes it harder to criticise, in some ways, than old-fashioned assumptions about women's roles.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I know the Telegraph is a joke but this reads like a parody.

    The mortgage bomb about to explode under middle-class Britain

    The mercury is rising and so are interest rates: the scene appears to be set for a midsummer nightmare in the mortgage market. With nearly half a million home loan borrowers rolling their fixed-term loans every three months over the course of this year, the ratchet is tightening. As someone wryly pointed out on Twitter recently, “When does your fixed rate end?” has become the new “Have you watched any good box sets recently?” go-to dinner party conversation starter.

    Don’t ask Adam Fraser*, 42, and his wife, who bought their £7 million house in Berkshire in July last year having secured a mortgage in the January. “It was at the tail end of when there were still good deals to be had,” says Fraser. “We passed our affordability test with flying colours and so I had no problem buying at the top of the market.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/mortgage-bomb-middle-class-britain/

    Very first world problem to have!
    Indeed.

    Fraser’s monthly mortgage payments have gone up from £8,300 a month to £20,000. “If things were to carry on this way, we would be looking to pull our three kids out of school – which costs us £45,000 a year – and possibly be looking to sell the house too.”
    How come the stupid bastard didn't go for a long term fixed rate?

    I saw this coming eighteen months ago and I'm no expert. Is he an investment fund manager or something if he's that dim and overpaid?
    It's completely idiotic and I have zero sympathy. I do feel for people on average incomes who over extended themselves to buy a normal house in our crazy housing market, but anyone with that kind of money can afford a decent home without going massively into unaffordable debt. I used a decade of good earnings to pay off our mortgage on our perfectly nice but not huge or luxurious house completely rather than leveraging myself up to the eyeballs to buy a show home I can barely afford. Interest rates go up as well as down. Now he has to take his kids out of private school? Oh no, how will they cope! What an over entitled prick.
    Is the story supposed to elicit sympathy - or is it rather a somewhat vivid illustration of the likely economic fallout ?
    I think it’s the Telegraph’s idea of what constitutes middle class.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Cyclefree said:

    In more "rewards for failure" news, this "honour" by Boris is utterly disgraceful - an award for Alex Chisholm, principal accounting officer for the Post Office 2016-2020, when it tried to stop 555 wrongfully convicted sub-postmasters from getting justice at the High Court.

    Far worse than Charlotte Owen to my mind.

    WTAF ??
    Boris's entire honours list is a WTAF moment.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,215

    Scott_xP said:

    I went for a pint in Brexit Central and everybody’s rather bitter

    A wish for sovereignty drove voters in Clacton-on-Sea to Leave. But optimism has given way to anger

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/i-went-for-a-pint-in-brexit-central-and-everybodys-rather-bitter-mmbnccpcs

    Brexit is a racist endeavour.

    In the Moon and Starfish, a Wetherspoon’s pub on the Clacton seafront, the day drinking crowd were well into their third pints by Thursday lunchtime. When I brought up Brexit, it was viewed with a sense of wasted opportunity, like a football team who had thrown away a two-goal lead.

    “I expected problems from day one. It’s the British way,” said Trevor, 77, a retired commodities trader. “I hoped it would be good, but it hasn’t panned out; the politicians have let us down as usual. Boris is an arsehole. He’s always been an arsehole.”

    “Independence” and “standing on our own two feet” were the most common rationales I heard for Brexit, but, like many in Clacton, Trevor had also hoped that leaving the EU would allow the government to drastically reduce immigration. Clearly, this hasn’t happened. “We need to stop the boats — this country is full,” he said. Then he looked at me. “I’m not being rude to you, but it’s to stop the n*****s coming in.” Right then.
    "I'm not being rude to you, but ..."
This discussion has been closed.