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Could Rishi be replaced before the election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,759
    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    Intderesting how quickly reality was faced once the Conservatives lost control.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,407
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    IIRC, large volcanic eruptions - which threw lots of particles into the upper atmosphere - have significantly reduced solar radiation reaching the surface, and led to meaningfully lower temperatures.

    Presumably the models predicting nuclear winter were based on those observations.
    It's actually more fun than that - a lot of it started with trying to model the atmosphere of Mars. Working out the behaviour of particulate was just a part of it.

    It was one of those occasions, where the initial idea was "We will get a huge effect". As modelling got better, the effects got smaller. Now people talk about a Nuclear Autumn.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,759

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,263
    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    The particulate matter won't stay in the atmosphere for all that long though, so the effect will be somewhat short-lived. The greatest risk is probably from a volcanic eruption that continues for some time, like the Laki eruption of 1783-4.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,759
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Shirt lifted to flash bare breasts.
    Apparently this is an example. Though I have a suspicion something is not missing.

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18228732/
  • Options
    WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    So Dutch Salute "theory" is a hypothesis to do with the regionalisation of tactical voting and the bearing of breasts. Am I on the right lines?

    ...Back to my second bottle of wine tonight...
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Miklosvar said:

    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
    But we did prosecute people for things like benefiting from slave labour. Slave labour was also happening in British concentration camps. Were those instances prosecuted?

    Victor's justice is a real thing, and international law is a concept freighted with hypocrisy.
    Cry me a river over the injustice here. I will take your word for it over slave labour in British concentration camps (or rather I won't, what is your source?) but it probably wasn't intended as a method of murder - working people to death.
    The intention is not to show Britain was as bad as Nazi Germany. Very obviously it wasn't.

    The intention is to show that law in the international realm is a mask for power. It is a thing done to the vanquished, not a thing applied equally to all.

    It isn't enough for use to say that Nazi Germany was far, far worse. Britain shouldn't have done some of the things it did. The inapplicability of "law" over victors is an injustice to those who were the innocent victims of those victors. Justice demands we're honest about all crimes, not just those of our enemies.
  • Options
    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    It's a really major scandal in local government (not just Tory administrations, but quite a lot were) which thought they were massive property companies, who'd run a Council on the side off the profits.

    It was horrific in terms of risk, and driven by a conviction that there is such a thing as free money.

    And, on the side, there was individual corruption which will progressively emerge.

    It's a lot in Woking, but they're just the tip of a pretty rancid iceberg, and the oversight wasn't in place.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,416
    edited June 2023
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Dutch Salute theory in polling explained. Look for a gradual or even sudden rise for this trend across surveys.

    For LLG frequently showing in the 60s, why wait till May 1st to work out how you are tactically voting, and tell pollsters something different till then - when you know today and can be right up front will the pollster?

    Dutch Salute theory is based on HY being right about something he posted last week - in much of the blue wall the main challenge to the Tories are Lib Dem’s - so if it goes with current polling (HY uses a lot of If’s) this degree of Labour voting will be wasted votes in so many places and hand the seats to the Tories.

    Hang on, it’s not even an If there’s going to be tactical voting. With 60% LLG a great number will know exactly how to vote tactical a long time before the General Election.

    However, this tactical voting is going to be massively regional - many telling pollsters today they will vote Lab, will start to tell pollsters Lib Dem instead. But they will do this in certain places, not evenly across the nation. In the Nationwide poll Labour will FALL - Labours lead over the Tories will FALL - all this with no extra Tory votes but Lib Dem’s on the rise.

    This national polling, at first glance looking much more optimistic for the Tories, will utterly disguise what is really shaping up - the national polling picture cannot give us what will actually be going on - swing calculators based on average swing will slip woefully behind the huge variation in tactical vote between place to place, region to region, wall to wall.

    Voters knowing in the coming months how they will vote tactically in the general election, simply becoming all up front with pollsters about their vote, and how tactical voting will be wildly different from place to place not showing in the nationwide polls, this explains Dutch Salute theory. What to look out for, what is causing it, and the added caution this builds into the NATIONAL POLLS, that, if I’m right, will if anything show Tories closing the gap to Labour, yet completely miss the tactical storm brewing.
    No it's about norks.
    I’m the psephologist who created the theory! I should know what it is!

    I do have a point. BJO keeps pointing out Labour lead has fallen from in the twenties to about 12 to 14 - which isn’t much opposition lead at all one year before an election, 2015 and all that, and he asks for an explanation.

    I’ve given the explanation.

    If the LLG has moved nowhere, Tories gone nowhere, Lib Dem’s creeping up and Labour down, that narrowing of the gap disguises the tactical taking shape.

    Why should LLG wait till next April to make up their mind when they know today and can start being straight up front with pollsters.

    Stodge has got this one wrong. This is not Lib Dem froth, they are actually down in Blue Wall. They should gain those Labour votes and Labour go backwards.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Dutch Salute theory in polling explained. Look for a gradual or even sudden rise for this trend across surveys.

    For LLG frequently showing in the 60s, why wait till May 1st to work out how you are tactically voting, and tell pollsters something different till then - when you know today and can be right up front will the pollster?

    Dutch Salute theory is based on HY being right about something he posted last week - in much of the blue wall the main challenge to the Tories are Lib Dem’s - so if it goes with current polling (HY uses a lot of If’s) this degree of Labour voting will be wasted votes in so many places and hand the seats to the Tories.

    Hang on, it’s not even an If there’s going to be tactical voting. With 60% LLG a great number will know exactly how to vote tactical a long time before the General Election.

    However, this tactical voting is going to be massively regional - many telling pollsters today they will vote Lab, will start to tell pollsters Lib Dem instead. But they will do this in certain places, not evenly across the nation. In the Nationwide poll Labour will FALL - Labours lead over the Tories will FALL - all this with no extra Tory votes but Lib Dem’s on the rise.

    This national polling, at first glance looking much more optimistic for the Tories, will utterly disguise what is really shaping up - the national polling picture cannot give us what will actually be going on - swing calculators based on average swing will slip woefully behind the huge variation in tactical vote between place to place, region to region, wall to wall.

    Voters knowing in the coming months how they will vote tactically in the general election, simply becoming all up front with pollsters about their vote, and how tactical voting will be wildly different from place to place not showing in the nationwide polls, this explains Dutch Salute theory. What to look out for, what is causing it, and the added caution this builds into the NATIONAL POLLS, that, if I’m right, will if anything show Tories closing the gap to Labour, yet completely miss the tactical storm brewing.
    No it's about norks.
    I’m the psephologist who created the theory! I should know what it is!

    I do have a point. BJO keeps pointing out Labour lead has fallen from in the twenties to about 12 to 14 - which isn’t much opposition lead at all one year before an election, 2015 and all that, and he asks for an explanation.

    I’ve given the explanation.

    If the LLG has moved nowhere, Tories gone nowhere, Lib Dem’s creeping up and Labour down, that narrowing of the gap disguises the tactical taking shape.

    Why should LLG wait till next April to make up their mind when they know today and can start being straight up front with pollsters.
    No Tory poll leads for 18 months and 1 day :)
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Dutch Salute theory in polling explained. Look for a gradual or even sudden rise for this trend across surveys.

    For LLG frequently showing in the 60s, why wait till May 1st to work out how you are tactically voting, and tell pollsters something different till then - when you know today and can be right up front will the pollster?

    Dutch Salute theory is based on HY being right about something he posted last week - in much of the blue wall the main challenge to the Tories are Lib Dem’s - so if it goes with current polling (HY uses a lot of If’s) this degree of Labour voting will be wasted votes in so many places and hand the seats to the Tories.

    Hang on, it’s not even an If there’s going to be tactical voting. With 60% LLG a great number will know exactly how to vote tactical a long time before the General Election.

    However, this tactical voting is going to be massively regional - many telling pollsters today they will vote Lab, will start to tell pollsters Lib Dem instead. But they will do this in certain places, not evenly across the nation. In the Nationwide poll Labour will FALL - Labours lead over the Tories will FALL - all this with no extra Tory votes but Lib Dem’s on the rise.

    This national polling, at first glance looking much more optimistic for the Tories, will utterly disguise what is really shaping up - the national polling picture cannot give us what will actually be going on - swing calculators based on average swing will slip woefully behind the huge variation in tactical vote between place to place, region to region, wall to wall.

    Voters knowing in the coming months how they will vote tactically in the general election, simply becoming all up front with pollsters about their vote, and how tactical voting will be wildly different from place to place not showing in the nationwide polls, this explains Dutch Salute theory. What to look out for, what is causing it, and the added caution this builds into the NATIONAL POLLS, that, if I’m right, will if anything show Tories closing the gap to Labour, yet completely miss the tactical storm brewing.
    No it's about norks.
    I’m the psephologist who created the theory! I should know what it is!

    I do have a point. BJO keeps pointing out Labour lead has fallen from in the twenties to about 12 to 14 - which isn’t much opposition lead at all one year before an election, 2015 and all that, and he asks for an explanation.

    I’ve given the explanation.

    If the LLG has moved nowhere, Tories gone nowhere, Lib Dem’s creeping up and Labour down, that narrowing of the gap disguises the tactical taking shape.

    Why should LLG wait till next April to make up their mind when they know today and can start being straight up front with pollsters.

    Stodge has got this one wrong. This is not Lib Dem froth, they are actually down in Blue Wall. They should gain those Labour votes and Labour go backwards.
    Actually I'm pretty sure it's a nautical manoeuvre
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,416
    Westie said:

    So Dutch Salute "theory" is a hypothesis to do with the regionalisation of tactical voting and the bearing of breasts. Am I on the right lines?

    ...Back to my second bottle of wine tonight...

    No breasts at all.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,855

    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    It's a really major scandal in local government (not just Tory administrations, but quite a lot were) which thought they were massive property companies, who'd run a Council on the side off the profits.

    It was horrific in terms of risk, and driven by a conviction that there is such a thing as free money.

    And, on the side, there was individual corruption which will progressively emerge.

    It's a lot in Woking, but they're just the tip of a pretty rancid iceberg, and the oversight wasn't in place.
    Not quite - the first councils to go into the Investment Property game were empowered by changes in legislation brought in, I think, by the Coalition which allowed Councils to purchase properties for Investment purposes outside their boundaries.

    This happened as a mechanism for allowing Councils to generate alternative sources of income rather than simply relying on Council Tax, parking and Government grants.

    The idea was sensible investment would generate high rental yields and provide a guaranteed revenue stream irrespective of changes (reductions) in Government grant.

    In the early 2010s, in the immediate aftermath of the GFC, the only organisations active in the Property Investment market were Councils and pension funds which were in truth the only two groups at that time with funds to invest.

    Those Councils who were able to move quickly snapped up some really good properties and so/me decent rental yields but by the time the likes of Woking got involved the market was flooded and the good deals were gone so the alternative was investment in town centre regeneration projects.

    On paper these looked attractive bringing in both residential and commercial investment and improving some frankly neglected and run down urban spaces. This was a brilliant idea until the pandemic wrecked the commercial property market and with interest rates rising Councils faced the double whammy of increasing borrowing costs and declining investment returns.

    Woking isn't the only authority who have had their fingers burnt but the original concept and theory was interesting.
  • Options
    WestieWestie Posts: 426

    Westie said:

    So Dutch Salute "theory" is a hypothesis to do with the regionalisation of tactical voting and the bearing of breasts. Am I on the right lines?

    ...Back to my second bottle of wine tonight...

    No breasts at all.
    After about 20 minutes of work I have divined that "LLG" means "Lab - LibDem - Green".

    My own favourite metric is right/left where right includes nationalists and far right and greens, and centrists such as liberals are ignored. OK everyone has their own metric and their metrics are of varying utility, but mine at least points up a big difference between Scotland and Wales.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306
    The parents of the private school I mentioned have raised £1.2m in 48 hours. The school say they need £2m and that is looking possible. It seems a serious misjudgment by the now former Board.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    Apparently the top concern of constituents in Newcastle Central is democracy in Pakistan, and the second is action for Palestine.

    https://chionwurahmp.com/2023/06/policy-issues-raised-by-constituents-april-2023/

    Palestine did you say? Not Ukraine?



  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,444
    So happy for David Moyes.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,156
    To all the bettors here - can Putin's behaviour be understood as a gambler? His actions are double-or-quits type gambles. He's a plunger, this much is clear, and it seems he's heading for gambler's ruin. His opponents, by contrast, are cautious and rational hedgers for whom the stakes are higher, existential even. Putin is also, as is well known, a judoka who likes to unbalance his opponent. I cannot see him embarking on negotiations that imply compromise. It doesn't fit his world view or personality.
  • Options
    WestieWestie Posts: 426

    Apparently the top concern of constituents in Newcastle Central is democracy in Pakistan, and the second is action for Palestine.

    https://chionwurahmp.com/2023/06/policy-issues-raised-by-constituents-april-2023/

    Palestine did you say? Not Ukraine?



    Are you completely nuts? Who thinks in terms of km^2? And in any case, who votes according to what they think is happening in foreign countries thousanfds of miles away?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Westie said:

    Apparently the top concern of constituents in Newcastle Central is democracy in Pakistan, and the second is action for Palestine.

    https://chionwurahmp.com/2023/06/policy-issues-raised-by-constituents-april-2023/

    Palestine did you say? Not Ukraine?



    And in any case, who votes according to what they think is happening in foreign countries thousanfds of miles away?
    Corbynites.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    edited June 2023

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    Interesting that you should mention Global Thermonuclear War as the classic film War Games was released 40 years ago this week.

    "Wouldn't you prefer a good game of Chess?"

    "Later. Let's play Global Thermonuclear War".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXzNo0vR_dU
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    DavidL said:

    The parents of the private school I mentioned have raised £1.2m in 48 hours. The school say they need £2m and that is looking possible. It seems a serious misjudgment by the now former Board.

    Good show by the parents.

    But it also indicates why the naysayers of Labour's policy are wrong. There's plenty of money out there when the wealthy get squeezed
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    So happy for David Moyes.

    He deserves a reward for the great work he did at Man United.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    kle4 said:

    Westie said:

    Apparently the top concern of constituents in Newcastle Central is democracy in Pakistan, and the second is action for Palestine.

    https://chionwurahmp.com/2023/06/policy-issues-raised-by-constituents-april-2023/

    Palestine did you say? Not Ukraine?



    And in any case, who votes according to what they think is happening in foreign countries thousanfds of miles away?
    Corbynites.
    Brexiters
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    geoffw said:

    To all the bettors here - can Putin's behaviour be understood as a gambler? His actions are double-or-quits type gambles. He's a plunger, this much is clear, and it seems he's heading for gambler's ruin. His opponents, by contrast, are cautious and rational hedgers for whom the stakes are higher, existential even. Putin is also, as is well known, a judoka who likes to unbalance his opponent. I cannot see him embarking on negotiations that imply compromise. It doesn't fit his world view or personality.

    A plunger? Putin is the thing that plungers are meant to shift.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007
    edited June 2023
    Carnyx said:

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
    Scotland is the most anti a new oil developments ban part of the UK, 39% of Scots oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to only 32% opposed in the UK overall (with Londoners most in favour of a ban).
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1

    Yet both the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil and gas developments, with only the Conservatives in favour
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    geoffw said:

    To all the bettors here - can Putin's behaviour be understood as a gambler? His actions are double-or-quits type gambles. He's a plunger, this much is clear, and it seems he's heading for gambler's ruin. His opponents, by contrast, are cautious and rational hedgers for whom the stakes are higher, existential even. Putin is also, as is well known, a judoka who likes to unbalance his opponent. I cannot see him embarking on negotiations that imply compromise. It doesn't fit his world view or personality.

    I certainly don't think he'd embark on direct negotiations but that's what Lavrov is for. He'd take the blame for any concessions that have to be made.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750

    Miklosvar said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNVeHTWcayk

    Rishi Sunak is in big trouble if these focus groups are right.

    He's been nick-named "little Rishi", because he cannot stand up to Johnson.

    "Weak"

    "Too rich"

    CBA to sit through 15 minutes of that, but you aren't really selling it to me. Check out who is PM. This is like saying Churchill has been nick-named "little Winnie", because he cannot stand up to Hitler. Feeble stuff.
    Starmer is "meh", Sunak is too rich for the Red Wall to vote for him. They do not like him.
    Might be fair, might be unfair, but it's true.
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,194
    West Ham 👍👍👍👍👍
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970

    So happy for David Moyes.

    Football genius.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    I don't think there's much 'alleged' about this, he's beem pretty clear about it. What's depressing is most of the GOP choose personal loyalty, and even Pence is a bit hesitant about condemning that.

    At his launch rally in Iowa, Mr Pence alleged that Mr Trump had “demanded” he choose between personal loyalty and the Constitution while attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/trump-demanded-i-choose-between-him-and-constitution-says-mike-pence-as-he-launches-presidential-bid/ar-AA1cg3Ak?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=e015bbbb62f54d3cab922cd636e1e6fb&ei=9
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,194

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Dutch Salute theory in polling explained. Look for a gradual or even sudden rise for this trend across surveys.

    For LLG frequently showing in the 60s, why wait till May 1st to work out how you are tactically voting, and tell pollsters something different till then - when you know today and can be right up front will the pollster?

    Dutch Salute theory is based on HY being right about something he posted last week - in much of the blue wall the main challenge to the Tories are Lib Dem’s - so if it goes with current polling (HY uses a lot of If’s) this degree of Labour voting will be wasted votes in so many places and hand the seats to the Tories.

    Hang on, it’s not even an If there’s going to be tactical voting. With 60% LLG a great number will know exactly how to vote tactical a long time before the General Election.

    However, this tactical voting is going to be massively regional - many telling pollsters today they will vote Lab, will start to tell pollsters Lib Dem instead. But they will do this in certain places, not evenly across the nation. In the Nationwide poll Labour will FALL - Labours lead over the Tories will FALL - all this with no extra Tory votes but Lib Dem’s on the rise.

    This national polling, at first glance looking much more optimistic for the Tories, will utterly disguise what is really shaping up - the national polling picture cannot give us what will actually be going on - swing calculators based on average swing will slip woefully behind the huge variation in tactical vote between place to place, region to region, wall to wall.

    Voters knowing in the coming months how they will vote tactically in the general election, simply becoming all up front with pollsters about their vote, and how tactical voting will be wildly different from place to place not showing in the nationwide polls, this explains Dutch Salute theory. What to look out for, what is causing it, and the added caution this builds into the NATIONAL POLLS, that, if I’m right, will if anything show Tories closing the gap to Labour, yet completely miss the tactical storm brewing.
    No it's about norks.
    I’m the psephologist who created the theory! I should know what it is!

    I do have a point. BJO keeps pointing out Labour lead has fallen from in the twenties to about 12 to 14 - which isn’t much opposition lead at all one year before an election, 2015 and all that, and he asks for an explanation.

    I’ve given the explanation.

    If the LLG has moved nowhere, Tories gone nowhere, Lib Dem’s creeping up and Labour down, that narrowing of the gap disguises the tactical taking shape.

    Why should LLG wait till next April to make up their mind when they know today and can start being straight up front with pollsters.
    No Tory poll leads for 18 months and 1 day :)
    No LAB GE win since 2005! 😊
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,643
    Westie said:

    Westie said:

    So Dutch Salute "theory" is a hypothesis to do with the regionalisation of tactical voting and the bearing of breasts. Am I on the right lines?

    ...Back to my second bottle of wine tonight...

    No breasts at all.
    After about 20 minutes of work I have divined that "LLG" means "Lab - LibDem - Green".

    My own favourite metric is right/left where right includes nationalists and far right and greens, and centrists such as liberals are ignored. OK everyone has their own metric and their metrics are of varying utility, but mine at least points up a big difference between Scotland and Wales.
    So what we are saying is that the left milky dumpling is bigger than the right milky dumpling, and the cleavage sagging a bit in the middle.

    Nothing a well fitted brassiere wouldn't sort out.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    geoffw said:

    To all the bettors here - can Putin's behaviour be understood as a gambler? His actions are double-or-quits type gambles. He's a plunger, this much is clear, and it seems he's heading for gambler's ruin. His opponents, by contrast, are cautious and rational hedgers for whom the stakes are higher, existential even. Putin is also, as is well known, a judoka who likes to unbalance his opponent. I cannot see him embarking on negotiations that imply compromise. It doesn't fit his world view or personality.

    Even he would do so if he felt there was no other way - the issue at present is neither side sees it to be to their advantage to embark on negotiations now, hence much more fighting will be necessary to change that (we can hope by making even Putin's intransigence untenable, rather than Ukraine being forced to accept the current lines of control), and instant 'peace' advocates are just Putinistas by another name.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    What the fuck?

    Woking has run up £2bn in debts???
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,416
    Foxy said:

    Westie said:

    Westie said:

    So Dutch Salute "theory" is a hypothesis to do with the regionalisation of tactical voting and the bearing of breasts. Am I on the right lines?

    ...Back to my second bottle of wine tonight...

    No breasts at all.
    After about 20 minutes of work I have divined that "LLG" means "Lab - LibDem - Green".

    My own favourite metric is right/left where right includes nationalists and far right and greens, and centrists such as liberals are ignored. OK everyone has their own metric and their metrics are of varying utility, but mine at least points up a big difference between Scotland and Wales.
    So what we are saying is that the left milky dumpling is bigger than the right milky dumpling, and the cleavage sagging a bit in the middle.

    Nothing a well fitted brassiere wouldn't sort out.
    You are very weird.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,643

    Foxy said:

    Westie said:

    Westie said:

    So Dutch Salute "theory" is a hypothesis to do with the regionalisation of tactical voting and the bearing of breasts. Am I on the right lines?

    ...Back to my second bottle of wine tonight...

    No breasts at all.
    After about 20 minutes of work I have divined that "LLG" means "Lab - LibDem - Green".

    My own favourite metric is right/left where right includes nationalists and far right and greens, and centrists such as liberals are ignored. OK everyone has their own metric and their metrics are of varying utility, but mine at least points up a big difference between Scotland and Wales.
    So what we are saying is that the left milky dumpling is bigger than the right milky dumpling, and the cleavage sagging a bit in the middle.

    Nothing a well fitted brassiere wouldn't sort out.
    You are very weird.
    From you, that is a compliment 😊
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
    Scotland is the most pro oil part of the UK, 39% of Scots oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to only 32% opposed in the UK overall (with Londoners most in favour of a ban).
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1

    Yet both the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil and gas developments, with only the Conservatives in favour
    Scotland is the second most in favour of a ban, at 40%, second only to London on 46%.

    Also, your figures seem to be wrong. Scotland is 36%, not 39% opposed to a ban.

    Scotland is marginally IN FAVOUR of such a ban according to your figures.
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,442
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    What the fuck?

    Woking has run up £2bn in debts???
    Be Woke, go broke.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007
    edited June 2023
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
    Scotland is the most pro oil part of the UK, 39% of Scots oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to only 32% opposed in the UK overall (with Londoners most in favour of a ban).
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1

    Yet both the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil and gas developments, with only the Conservatives in favour
    Scotland is the second most in favour of a ban, at 40%, second only to London on 46%.

    Also, your figures seem to be wrong. Scotland is 36%, not 39% opposed to a ban.

    Scotland is marginally IN FAVOUR of such a ban according to your figures.
    Still more Scots are opposed to a ban on new oil developments than the 32% opposed to a ban in the UK overall. (Northerners are as supportive of a ban as Scots but both still significantly less than Londoners are).

    Yet BOTH the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil developments with only the Conservatives standing up for the more than a third of Scots who oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    What the fuck?

    Woking has run up £2bn in debts???
    I cannot quite conceive how some councils have managed to run up such huge debts. It should be impossible to manage that if they were trying to do it!
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/public-awareness-of-nuclear-winter-too-low-given-current-risks-argues-expert

    From 2023 cambridge university seems to still believe in nuclear winter maybe they are not academic enough because westie knows better
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    £2bn debt and, what, £18m turnover - that's going to take a while to pay off.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,416



    more sparks about the tinder
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,407
    Fishing said:

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    Interesting that you should mention Global Thermonuclear War as the classic film War Games was released 40 years ago this week.

    "Wouldn't you prefer a good game of Chess?"

    "Later. Let's play Global Thermonuclear War".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXzNo0vR_dU

    Who would survive? That's an interesting question. I would predict... convicts and file clerks. The worst convicts. Those deep down in solitary confinement. And the most ordinary file clerks. Probably for large insurance companies, because they would be in fire-proof rooms, protected by tons of the best insulator in the world: paper. And imagine what will happen. The small group of vicious criminals will fight the army of file clerks for the remaining means of life. The convicts will know violence, but the file clerks will know organization. Who do think'll win? It's all hypotheses of course, but fun to play around with.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001
    geoffw said:

    To all the bettors here - can Putin's behaviour be understood as a gambler? His actions are double-or-quits type gambles. He's a plunger, this much is clear, and it seems he's heading for gambler's ruin. His opponents, by contrast, are cautious and rational hedgers for whom the stakes are higher, existential even. Putin is also, as is well known, a judoka who likes to unbalance his opponent. I cannot see him embarking on negotiations that imply compromise. It doesn't fit his world view or personality.

    He gambles like a high-stakes Hold Em poker player, not like a sports bettor. Texas Hold ‘Em is (rightly imho) seen as the greatest gambler’s game because it combines chance, skill and moxy like no other. Bluffing, bluff-calling, slow playing and bullying etc are all parts of it. There is nothing quite like it.

    I love it as a game. As an approach to governance or geopolitics, it’s genuinely horrific.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,407
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    What the fuck?

    Woking has run up £2bn in debts???
    I cannot quite conceive how some councils have managed to run up such huge debts. It should be impossible to manage that if they were trying to do it!
    Invest in property on an epic scale. Because property is a one way punt....
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001

    Foxy said:

    Westie said:

    Westie said:

    So Dutch Salute "theory" is a hypothesis to do with the regionalisation of tactical voting and the bearing of breasts. Am I on the right lines?

    ...Back to my second bottle of wine tonight...

    No breasts at all.
    After about 20 minutes of work I have divined that "LLG" means "Lab - LibDem - Green".

    My own favourite metric is right/left where right includes nationalists and far right and greens, and centrists such as liberals are ignored. OK everyone has their own metric and their metrics are of varying utility, but mine at least points up a big difference between Scotland and Wales.
    So what we are saying is that the left milky dumpling is bigger than the right milky dumpling, and the cleavage sagging a bit in the middle.

    Nothing a well fitted brassiere wouldn't sort out.
    You are very weird.
    While I disagree with some of your (always well-thought-through) analysis from time to time; this is a very pithy and correct summary.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    edited June 2023
    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    What the fuck?

    Woking has run up £2bn in debts???
    I cannot quite conceive how some councils have managed to run up such huge debts. It should be impossible to manage that if they were trying to do it!
    Cos LA funding was cut to the bone over the last 13 years maybe?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    Fishing said:

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    Interesting that you should mention Global Thermonuclear War as the classic film War Games was released 40 years ago this week.

    "Wouldn't you prefer a good game of Chess?"

    "Later. Let's play Global Thermonuclear War".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXzNo0vR_dU
    Tsk! "Wouldn't you prefer a NICE game of chess?"
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,416
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Westie said:

    Westie said:

    So Dutch Salute "theory" is a hypothesis to do with the regionalisation of tactical voting and the bearing of breasts. Am I on the right lines?

    ...Back to my second bottle of wine tonight...

    No breasts at all.
    After about 20 minutes of work I have divined that "LLG" means "Lab - LibDem - Green".

    My own favourite metric is right/left where right includes nationalists and far right and greens, and centrists such as liberals are ignored. OK everyone has their own metric and their metrics are of varying utility, but mine at least points up a big difference between Scotland and Wales.
    So what we are saying is that the left milky dumpling is bigger than the right milky dumpling, and the cleavage sagging a bit in the middle.

    Nothing a well fitted brassiere wouldn't sort out.
    You are very weird.
    From you, that is a compliment 😊
    Your welcome 🙋‍♀️
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
    Scotland is the most pro oil part of the UK, 39% of Scots oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to only 32% opposed in the UK overall (with Londoners most in favour of a ban).
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1

    Yet both the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil and gas developments, with only the Conservatives in favour
    Scotland is the second most in favour of a ban, at 40%, second only to London on 46%.

    Also, your figures seem to be wrong. Scotland is 36%, not 39% opposed to a ban.

    Scotland is marginally IN FAVOUR of such a ban according to your figures.
    Still more Scots are opposed to a ban on new oil developments than the 32% opposed to a ban in the UK overall. (Northerners are as supportive of a ban as Scots but both still significantly less than Londoners are).

    Yet BOTH the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil developments with only the Conservatives standing up for the more than a third of Scots who oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea
    I'll do this as a picture so you can understand it better:

    figures for Scotland

    yes, ban it:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    no ban please:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    don't know:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    What the fuck?

    Woking has run up £2bn in debts???
    Population c. 100k. That's £20,000 each - much more if you exclude kids and non-workers.

    Honestly, the irresponsibility of these Tory councils beggars belief.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,407
    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    The Megavolcanos throw staggering amounts of material into the atmosphere over very long periods - 30,000 years for the Deccan Traps, for example.

    The K-Pg event was a 72,000,000 megaton yield equivalent.

    At peak, the global nuclear arsenal was something like 2,000 megatons.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    Sunak accepts Johnson's honours lists with 2 by elections on the horizon

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1666549042216685569?t=a6O0hCbr4T8_BcczZugGgw&s=19
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Ghedebrav said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    What the fuck?

    Woking has run up £2bn in debts???
    I cannot quite conceive how some councils have managed to run up such huge debts. It should be impossible to manage that if they were trying to do it!
    Cos LA funding was cut to the bone over the last 13 years maybe?
    No.

    I mean, that is certainly also true, but most council's don't get anywhere close to these absurdly high examples, and even if the politicians are nuts and the officers incompetent it should be hard to legally run up such massive debts through what is presumably very risky borrowing.

    It isn't enough simply that council funding has been cut sharply, to explain the few examples where they are not simply feeling a lot of strain or in trouble, but billions in trouble. Especially when only the larger authorities approach a billion turnover a year, with much of that non-discretionary.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945
    edited June 2023
    As a life long Hammers fan (like my Dad and Grandad before me) I am delighted that they have won their first bit of European silverware since the year I was born. :smile:
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
    Scotland is the most pro oil part of the UK, 39% of Scots oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to only 32% opposed in the UK overall (with Londoners most in favour of a ban).
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1

    Yet both the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil and gas developments, with only the Conservatives in favour
    Scotland is the second most in favour of a ban, at 40%, second only to London on 46%.

    Also, your figures seem to be wrong. Scotland is 36%, not 39% opposed to a ban.

    Scotland is marginally IN FAVOUR of such a ban according to your figures.
    Still more Scots are opposed to a ban on new oil developments than the 32% opposed to a ban in the UK overall. (Northerners are as supportive of a ban as Scots but both still significantly less than Londoners are).

    Yet BOTH the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil developments with only the Conservatives standing up for the more than a third of Scots who oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea
    I'll do this as a picture so you can understand it better:

    figures for Scotland

    yes, ban it:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    no ban please:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    don't know:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤
    And that No Ban group is over a third of Scottish voters and more than the UK average, yet ONLY the Scottish Conservatives are standing up for those who don't want a ban on new oil and gas extraction from the North Sea
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
  • Options
    CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Little Rishi cannot stand up to Johnson.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    As a life long Hammers fan (like my Dad and Grandad before me) I am delighted that they have won their first bit of European silverware since the year I was born. :smile:

    Intertoto Cup, 1999!!!
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,643
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
    Scotland is the most pro oil part of the UK, 39% of Scots oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to only 32% opposed in the UK overall (with Londoners most in favour of a ban).
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1

    Yet both the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil and gas developments, with only the Conservatives in favour
    Scotland is the second most in favour of a ban, at 40%, second only to London on 46%.

    Also, your figures seem to be wrong. Scotland is 36%, not 39% opposed to a ban.

    Scotland is marginally IN FAVOUR of such a ban according to your figures.
    Still more Scots are opposed to a ban on new oil developments than the 32% opposed to a ban in the UK overall. (Northerners are as supportive of a ban as Scots but both still significantly less than Londoners are).

    Yet BOTH the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil developments with only the Conservatives standing up for the more than a third of Scots who oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea
    I'll do this as a picture so you can understand it better:

    figures for Scotland

    yes, ban it:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    no ban please:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    don't know:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤
    And that No Ban group is over a third of Scottish voters and more than the UK average, yet ONLY the Scottish Conservatives are standing up for those who don't want a ban on new oil and gas extraction from the North Sea
    Of course, in Indy-Scotland it wouldn't matter a jot what Westminster politicians think.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,540

    Sunak accepts Johnson's honours lists with 2 by elections on the horizon

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1666549042216685569?t=a6O0hCbr4T8_BcczZugGgw&s=19

    What sort of fucking world do we live in where Nadine fucking Dorries gets a peerage?

    (Excuse my language, but really....)
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    You said

    "K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes."

    which implies k-pg was meteorite impact and kt was volcano's
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298

    Sunak accepts Johnson's honours lists with 2 by elections on the horizon

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1666549042216685569?t=a6O0hCbr4T8_BcczZugGgw&s=19

    What sort of fucking world do we live in where Nadine fucking Dorries gets a peerage?

    (Excuse my language, but really....)
    Agreed and Tom Watson as well
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
    Scotland is the most pro oil part of the UK, 39% of Scots oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to only 32% opposed in the UK overall (with Londoners most in favour of a ban).
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1

    Yet both the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil and gas developments, with only the Conservatives in favour
    Scotland is the second most in favour of a ban, at 40%, second only to London on 46%.

    Also, your figures seem to be wrong. Scotland is 36%, not 39% opposed to a ban.

    Scotland is marginally IN FAVOUR of such a ban according to your figures.
    Still more Scots are opposed to a ban on new oil developments than the 32% opposed to a ban in the UK overall. (Northerners are as supportive of a ban as Scots but both still significantly less than Londoners are).

    Yet BOTH the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil developments with only the Conservatives standing up for the more than a third of Scots who oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea
    I'll do this as a picture so you can understand it better:

    figures for Scotland

    yes, ban it:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    no ban please:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    don't know:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤
    And that No Ban group is over a third of Scottish voters and more than the UK average, yet ONLY the Scottish Conservatives are standing up for those who don't want a ban on new oil and gas extraction from the North Sea
    Yes, this must be why the Scottish Conservatives have such a powerful record of electoral success north of the border.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007
    edited June 2023
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
    Scotland is the most pro oil part of the UK, 39% of Scots oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to only 32% opposed in the UK overall (with Londoners most in favour of a ban).
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1

    Yet both the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil and gas developments, with only the Conservatives in favour
    Scotland is the second most in favour of a ban, at 40%, second only to London on 46%.

    Also, your figures seem to be wrong. Scotland is 36%, not 39% opposed to a ban.

    Scotland is marginally IN FAVOUR of such a ban according to your figures.
    Still more Scots are opposed to a ban on new oil developments than the 32% opposed to a ban in the UK overall. (Northerners are as supportive of a ban as Scots but both still significantly less than Londoners are).

    Yet BOTH the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil developments with only the Conservatives standing up for the more than a third of Scots who oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea
    I'll do this as a picture so you can understand it better:

    figures for Scotland

    yes, ban it:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    no ban please:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    don't know:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤
    And that No Ban group is over a third of Scottish voters and more than the UK average, yet ONLY the Scottish Conservatives are standing up for those who don't want a ban on new oil and gas extraction from the North Sea
    Of course, in Indy-Scotland it wouldn't matter a jot what Westminster politicians think.
    In Indy Scotland Scots would have an SNP government more in tune with Londoners than Scots on North Sea Oil extraction. Thankfully however the SNP support in Scotland is falling rapidly and Scottish Conservative support is far more resilient than UK Conservative support at present since the last election
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    You said

    "K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes."

    which implies k-pg was meteorite impact and kt was volcano's
    meteorite impact is the closest analog to massive nuclear warheads detonating which was my point
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,442
    kle4 said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    What the fuck?

    Woking has run up £2bn in debts???
    I cannot quite conceive how some councils have managed to run up such huge debts. It should be impossible to manage that if they were trying to do it!
    Cos LA funding was cut to the bone over the last 13 years maybe?
    No.

    I mean, that is certainly also true, but most council's don't get anywhere close to these absurdly high examples, and even if the politicians are nuts and the officers incompetent it should be hard to legally run up such massive debts through what is presumably very risky borrowing.

    It isn't enough simply that council funding has been cut sharply, to explain the few examples where they are not simply feeling a lot of strain or in trouble, but billions in trouble. Especially when only the larger authorities approach a billion turnover a year, with much of that non-discretionary.
    Horrible sensation that this has something to do with the multiple failures we've seen recently;

    On 13 August 2010, the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government, Eric Pickles, announced that the Audit Commission was to be scrapped, with its functions being transferred to the voluntary, not-for-profit or private sector. The government aimed to save £50m annually, with the commission's function transferred to the Local Government Ombudsman and private accounting firms.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    You said

    "K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes."

    which implies k-pg was meteorite impact and kt was volcano's
    No, they are on two separate lines to demonstrate that I am correcting two separate points. One, the terminology, two the mechanism.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    You said

    "K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes."

    which implies k-pg was meteorite impact and kt was volcano's
    meteorite impact is the closest analog to massive nuclear warheads detonating which was my point
    Although you did mention volcanoes and not meteors tbf.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    You said

    "K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes."

    which implies k-pg was meteorite impact and kt was volcano's
    meteorite impact is the closest analog to massive nuclear warheads detonating which was my point
    Sure, and to the best of my knowledge nuclear winter is an accepted concept. I just wanted to make sure that anybody reading your post understood that the K–Pg is not thought to be ordinary volcanism.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844
    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    You said

    "K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes."

    which implies k-pg was meteorite impact and kt was volcano's
    No, they are on two separate lines to demonstrate that I am correcting two separate points. One, the terminology, two the mechanism.
    You understood exactly what I meant by k-t so it was you just trying to be a smart arse as the terminology changed since I learnt about it. It was just a sneer rather than a point.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
    Scotland is the most pro oil part of the UK, 39% of Scots oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to only 32% opposed in the UK overall (with Londoners most in favour of a ban).
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1

    Yet both the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil and gas developments, with only the Conservatives in favour
    Scotland is the second most in favour of a ban, at 40%, second only to London on 46%.

    Also, your figures seem to be wrong. Scotland is 36%, not 39% opposed to a ban.

    Scotland is marginally IN FAVOUR of such a ban according to your figures.
    Still more Scots are opposed to a ban on new oil developments than the 32% opposed to a ban in the UK overall. (Northerners are as supportive of a ban as Scots but both still significantly less than Londoners are).

    Yet BOTH the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil developments with only the Conservatives standing up for the more than a third of Scots who oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea
    I'll do this as a picture so you can understand it better:

    figures for Scotland

    yes, ban it:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    no ban please:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    don't know:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤
    And that No Ban group is over a third of Scottish voters and more than the UK average, yet ONLY the Scottish Conservatives are standing up for those who don't want a ban on new oil and gas extraction from the North Sea
    Of course, in Indy-Scotland it wouldn't matter a jot what Westminster politicians think.
    In Indy Scotland Scots would have an SNP government more in tune with Londoners than Scots on North Sea Oil extraction. Thankfully however the SNP support in Scotland is falling rapidly and Scottish Conservative support is far more resilient than UK Conservative support at present
    Starmer's fall in his Scotland ratings are likely for some to be his ban on further oil licences especially in the North East, but I would suggest his stance on Brexit is not helping as we see the SNP calling him out as a Brexiteer

    As I said earlier the SNP do appear to have stabilised their position and a lot will depend on the result of the police investigations

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750

    Sunak accepts Johnson's honours lists with 2 by elections on the horizon

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1666549042216685569?t=a6O0hCbr4T8_BcczZugGgw&s=19

    What sort of fucking world do we live in where Nadine fucking Dorries gets a peerage?

    (Excuse my language, but really....)
    I do not doubt we have had worse Peers. At least she's bought her peerage with slavish loyalty, rather than lucre.

    Though it's a good enough excuse to bring up one of my personal proposals for instant reform of the HoL - MPs are not allowed to become Peers until 6 years (or two parliamentary terms, whichever is longer) have passed. To encourage them to earn a place through continued good works, not get rewarded or persuaded to retire by being kicked upstairs.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    You said

    "K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes."

    which implies k-pg was meteorite impact and kt was volcano's
    meteorite impact is the closest analog to massive nuclear warheads detonating which was my point
    Although you did mention volcanoes and not meteors tbf.
    I mentioned volcanos as part of the same point, both meteors and volcano's put a lot of shit in the atmosphere which has a cooling effect. Are they the same no. But they both have a cooling effect
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    You said

    "K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes."

    which implies k-pg was meteorite impact and kt was volcano's
    No, they are on two separate lines to demonstrate that I am correcting two separate points. One, the terminology, two the mechanism.
    You understood exactly what I meant by k-t so it was you just trying to be a smart arse as the terminology changed since I learnt about it. It was just a sneer rather than a point.
    Yes, I did understand what you meant by KT, which is how people used to refer to that stratum/event. You communicated that fine, but your terminology is dated. Stop taking it as a personal attack.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
    Scotland is the most pro oil part of the UK, 39% of Scots oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to only 32% opposed in the UK overall (with Londoners most in favour of a ban).
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1

    Yet both the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil and gas developments, with only the Conservatives in favour
    Scotland is the second most in favour of a ban, at 40%, second only to London on 46%.

    Also, your figures seem to be wrong. Scotland is 36%, not 39% opposed to a ban.

    Scotland is marginally IN FAVOUR of such a ban according to your figures.
    Still more Scots are opposed to a ban on new oil developments than the 32% opposed to a ban in the UK overall. (Northerners are as supportive of a ban as Scots but both still significantly less than Londoners are).

    Yet BOTH the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil developments with only the Conservatives standing up for the more than a third of Scots who oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea
    I'll do this as a picture so you can understand it better:

    figures for Scotland

    yes, ban it:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    no ban please:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    don't know:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤
    And that No Ban group is over a third of Scottish voters and more than the UK average, yet ONLY the Scottish Conservatives are standing up for those who don't want a ban on new oil and gas extraction from the North Sea
    Of course, in Indy-Scotland it wouldn't matter a jot what Westminster politicians think.
    In Indy Scotland Scots would have an SNP government more in tune with Londoners than Scots on North Sea Oil extraction. Thankfully however the SNP support in Scotland is falling rapidly and Scottish Conservative support is far more resilient than UK Conservative support at present
    Starmer's fall in his Scotland ratings are likely for some to be his ban on further oil licences especially in the North East, but I would suggest his stance on Brexit is not helping as we see the SNP calling him out as a Brexiteer

    As I said earlier the SNP do appear to have stabilised their position and a lot will depend on the result of the police investigations

    Even on today's poll the SNP vote is still down 8% on 2019
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
    Scotland is the most pro oil part of the UK, 39% of Scots oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to only 32% opposed in the UK overall (with Londoners most in favour of a ban).
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1

    Yet both the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil and gas developments, with only the Conservatives in favour
    Scotland is the second most in favour of a ban, at 40%, second only to London on 46%.

    Also, your figures seem to be wrong. Scotland is 36%, not 39% opposed to a ban.

    Scotland is marginally IN FAVOUR of such a ban according to your figures.
    Still more Scots are opposed to a ban on new oil developments than the 32% opposed to a ban in the UK overall. (Northerners are as supportive of a ban as Scots but both still significantly less than Londoners are).

    Yet BOTH the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil developments with only the Conservatives standing up for the more than a third of Scots who oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea
    I'll do this as a picture so you can understand it better:

    figures for Scotland

    yes, ban it:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    no ban please:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    don't know:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤
    And that No Ban group is over a third of Scottish voters and more than the UK average, yet ONLY the Scottish Conservatives are standing up for those who don't want a ban on new oil and gas extraction from the North Sea
    Of course, in Indy-Scotland it wouldn't matter a jot what Westminster politicians think.
    In Indy Scotland Scots would have an SNP government more in tune with Londoners than Scots on North Sea Oil extraction. Thankfully however the SNP support in Scotland is falling rapidly and Scottish Conservative support is far more resilient than UK Conservative support at present
    Starmer's fall in his Scotland ratings are likely for some to be his ban on further oil licences especially in the North East, but I would suggest his stance on Brexit is not helping as we see the SNP calling him out as a Brexiteer

    As I said earlier the SNP do appear to have stabilised their position and a lot will depend on the result of the police investigations

    Even on today's poll the SNP vote is still down 8% on 2019
    All very well and good, but I was hoping for a real implosion. Couldn't they reveal there's a second minivan or something, we haven't had anything juicy for weeks.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,945
    edited June 2023
    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    To be fair it was always dated... and wrong. Though that is no criticism of Pagan. It was lazy geologists who couldn't be bothered to correct the original mistake.

    The K stands for Cretaceous Period which is the last period within the Mezozoic Era. The Mezozoic was followed by the Cenozoic which was also originally known as the Tertiary - the T in K-T. And the first period of the Cenozoic was the Paleogene.

    So for consistency the boundary should either have been based on the Eras - in which case it would have been M-C (or M-T in old money) or based on periods - which is where we have settled and why it is now called the K-Pg.

    The argument over meteorites vs volcanoes goes back and forward every few decades. mostly because there were both meteorties and volcanoes of the scale to cause extniction events very close to each other in time. And getting an accurate fix from 65 million years away is, well, not very accurate.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    What the fuck?

    Woking has run up £2bn in debts???
    I cannot quite conceive how some councils have managed to run up such huge debts. It should be impossible to manage that if they were trying to do it!
    Woking is not the only one. But it is absolutely appalling that a Borough Council of perhaps 70,000 voters has managed to run up debt of £2bn.

    Let that sink in for a second.

    If the Council had borrowed £1,000 for each of those potential voters, it would be £70m. If they'd borrowed £10,000, it would be £700m.

    The Council has run up debts equivalent to £30,000 per voter.

    How on earth was this allowed to happen? There's no way Council tax per voter exceeds £1,000. But let's pretend that it is. Even in that scenario its debts are 30x its tax receipts. Absolute madness.
  • Options
    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,844

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    To be fair it was always dated... and wrong. Though that is no criticism of Pagan. It was lazy geologists who coldn't be bothered to correct the original mistake.

    The K stands for Cretaceous Period which is the last period within the Mezozoic Era. The Mezozoic was followed by the Cenozoic which was also originally known as the Tertiary - the T in K-T. And the first period of the Cenozoic was the Paleogene.

    So for consistency the boundary should either have been based on the Eras - in which case it would have been M-C (or M-T in old money) or based on periods - which is where we have settled and why it is now called the K-Pg.

    The argument over meteorites vs volcanoes goes back and forward every few decades. mostly because there were both meteorties and volcanoes of the scale to cause extniction events very close to each other in time. And getting an accurate fix from 65 million years away is, well, not very accurate.
    I would also imagine meteor strikes on that scale are likely to trigger volcano's so its sort of there were volcano's there were meteors then there were even more volcano's
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,759
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    What the fuck?

    Woking has run up £2bn in debts???
    I cannot quite conceive how some councils have managed to run up such huge debts. It should be impossible to manage that if they were trying to do it!
    Woking is not the only one. But it is absolutely appalling that a Borough Council of perhaps 70,000 voters has managed to run up debt of £2bn.

    Let that sink in for a second.

    If the Council had borrowed £1,000 for each of those potential voters, it would be £70m. If they'd borrowed £10,000, it would be £700m.

    The Council has run up debts equivalent to £30,000 per voter.

    How on earth was this allowed to happen? There's no way Council tax per voter exceeds £1,000. But let's pretend that it is. Even in that scenario its debts are 30x its tax receipts. Absolute madness.
    Are the Tory Councillors personally liable in any way? You know, like the Westminster Tories for their gerrymandering.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,298
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
    Scotland is the most pro oil part of the UK, 39% of Scots oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to only 32% opposed in the UK overall (with Londoners most in favour of a ban).
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1

    Yet both the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil and gas developments, with only the Conservatives in favour
    Scotland is the second most in favour of a ban, at 40%, second only to London on 46%.

    Also, your figures seem to be wrong. Scotland is 36%, not 39% opposed to a ban.

    Scotland is marginally IN FAVOUR of such a ban according to your figures.
    Still more Scots are opposed to a ban on new oil developments than the 32% opposed to a ban in the UK overall. (Northerners are as supportive of a ban as Scots but both still significantly less than Londoners are).

    Yet BOTH the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil developments with only the Conservatives standing up for the more than a third of Scots who oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea
    I'll do this as a picture so you can understand it better:

    figures for Scotland

    yes, ban it:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    no ban please:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    don't know:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤
    And that No Ban group is over a third of Scottish voters and more than the UK average, yet ONLY the Scottish Conservatives are standing up for those who don't want a ban on new oil and gas extraction from the North Sea
    Of course, in Indy-Scotland it wouldn't matter a jot what Westminster politicians think.
    In Indy Scotland Scots would have an SNP government more in tune with Londoners than Scots on North Sea Oil extraction. Thankfully however the SNP support in Scotland is falling rapidly and Scottish Conservative support is far more resilient than UK Conservative support at present
    Starmer's fall in his Scotland ratings are likely for some to be his ban on further oil licences especially in the North East, but I would suggest his stance on Brexit is not helping as we see the SNP calling him out as a Brexiteer

    As I said earlier the SNP do appear to have stabilised their position and a lot will depend on the result of the police investigations

    Even on today's poll the SNP vote is still down 8% on 2019
    It would not have been unreasonable to see a double digit fall

    The Rutherglen by election will be interesting as will the result of the police investigations

    While support for independence has fallen it still remains in the mid forties and the SNP retain considerable support
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,639
    Are there any councils in the UK not in debt?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited June 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    What the fuck?

    Woking has run up £2bn in debts???
    I cannot quite conceive how some councils have managed to run up such huge debts. It should be impossible to manage that if they were trying to do it!
    Woking is not the only one. But it is absolutely appalling that a Borough Council of perhaps 70,000 voters has managed to run up debt of £2bn.

    Let that sink in for a second.

    If the Council had borrowed £1,000 for each of those potential voters, it would be £70m. If they'd borrowed £10,000, it would be £700m.

    The Council has run up debts equivalent to £30,000 per voter.

    How on earth was this allowed to happen? There's no way Council tax per voter exceeds £1,000. But let's pretend that it is. Even in that scenario its debts are 30x its tax receipts. Absolute madness.
    I know a lot of people involved in local government, political and employee. This sort of thing is just as baffling to them, since the very idea of doing something so reckless wouldn't survive 5 minutes in any competently staffed and run authority.

    Debts? Sure, that's life. Many not completely terrible ones close to tipping over? Definitely. But these egregious examples? Yeesh.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    To be fair it was always dated... and wrong. Though that is no criticism of Pagan. It was lazy geologists who couldn't be bothered to correct the original mistake.

    The K stands for Cretaceous Period which is the last period within the Mezozoic Era. The Mezozoic was followed by the Cenozoic which was also originally known as the Tertiary - the T in K-T. And the first period of the Cenozoic was the Paleogene.

    So for consistency the boundary should either have been based on the Eras - in which case it would have been M-C (or M-T in old money) or based on periods - which is where we have settled and why it is now called the K-Pg.

    The argument over meteorites vs volcanoes goes back and forward every few decades. mostly because there were both meteorties and volcanoes of the scale to cause extniction events very close to each other in time. And getting an accurate fix from 65 million years away is, well, not very accurate.
    It could have been a comet.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    To be fair it was always dated... and wrong. Though that is no criticism of Pagan. It was lazy geologists who coldn't be bothered to correct the original mistake.

    The K stands for Cretaceous Period which is the last period within the Mezozoic Era. The Mezozoic was followed by the Cenozoic which was also originally known as the Tertiary - the T in K-T. And the first period of the Cenozoic was the Paleogene.

    So for consistency the boundary should either have been based on the Eras - in which case it would have been M-C (or M-T in old money) or based on periods - which is where we have settled and why it is now called the K-Pg.

    The argument over meteorites vs volcanoes goes back and forward every few decades. mostly because there were both meteorties and volcanoes of the scale to cause extniction events very close to each other in time. And getting an accurate fix from 65 million years away is, well, not very accurate.
    I'll defer to your greater knowledge and training on this. It was my understanding that something like a consensus was formed now around meteorite impact being the main driver but if you think that volcanism is still "in play" I accept your verdict.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    What the fuck?

    Woking has run up £2bn in debts???
    Population c. 100k. That's £20,000 each - much more if you exclude kids and non-workers.

    Honestly, the irresponsibility of these Tory councils beggars belief.
    I'm sure there are some pretty irresponsible Labour and LibDem councils too. But £2bn. That's insane.

    Did no-one stop and think: you know, this is a lot of money. Did no-one ask, what would happen if interest rates went up?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,759
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    To be fair it was always dated... and wrong. Though that is no criticism of Pagan. It was lazy geologists who coldn't be bothered to correct the original mistake.

    The K stands for Cretaceous Period which is the last period within the Mezozoic Era. The Mezozoic was followed by the Cenozoic which was also originally known as the Tertiary - the T in K-T. And the first period of the Cenozoic was the Paleogene.

    So for consistency the boundary should either have been based on the Eras - in which case it would have been M-C (or M-T in old money) or based on periods - which is where we have settled and why it is now called the K-Pg.

    The argument over meteorites vs volcanoes goes back and forward every few decades. mostly because there were both meteorties and volcanoes of the scale to cause extniction events very close to each other in time. And getting an accurate fix from 65 million years away is, well, not very accurate.
    I'll defer to your greater knowledge and training on this. It was my understanding that something like a consensus was formed now around meteorite impact being the main driver but if you think that volcanism is still "in play" I accept your verdict.
    Possible for the two to be linked - Deccan Traps eruptiuon is suspiciously close in time and precisely opposite in place (diametrically across the globe) to be a sort of contre-coup effect of the Yucatan impact.
  • Options
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    You said

    "K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes."

    which implies k-pg was meteorite impact and kt was volcano's
    meteorite impact is the closest analog to massive nuclear warheads detonating which was my point
    Astonishingly, the energy released by the impact of the Chicxulub meteor is estimated to be equivalent to about 72 teratonnes of TNT, which has got to be far more than all the world's nukes combined.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    To be fair it was always dated... and wrong. Though that is no criticism of Pagan. It was lazy geologists who couldn't be bothered to correct the original mistake.

    The K stands for Cretaceous Period which is the last period within the Mezozoic Era. The Mezozoic was followed by the Cenozoic which was also originally known as the Tertiary - the T in K-T. And the first period of the Cenozoic was the Paleogene.

    So for consistency the boundary should either have been based on the Eras - in which case it would have been M-C (or M-T in old money) or based on periods - which is where we have settled and why it is now called the K-Pg.

    The argument over meteorites vs volcanoes goes back and forward every few decades. mostly because there were both meteorties and volcanoes of the scale to cause extniction events very close to each other in time. And getting an accurate fix from 65 million years away is, well, not very accurate.
    It could have been a comet.
    Yes, a meteorite can be from a comet. It's just a generic term for something hard from space that makes it to surface. Probably makes no difference to you if you're underneath it.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,759

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Farooq said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
    Gosh so we have millenia of proof that volcanoes throwing dust into the atmosphere cools the atmosphere......yet you quote that....I insult you because you dont do science. It is the whole science behind the KT boundary you idiot
    K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=kt+boundary&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB701GB701&oq=kt+boundary&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512l9.385861551j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    K-t
    the k-pg is the same thing just two different names for the same thing
    Yes, KT is the old terminology
    So different names but same thing....I learnt it as KT so sue me
    I'm just letting you know your information is a bit dated. You don't need to make a song and dance about it, it wasn't a criticism.
    You said

    "K–Pg, not KT.
    Meteorite impact, not volcanoes."

    which implies k-pg was meteorite impact and kt was volcano's
    meteorite impact is the closest analog to massive nuclear warheads detonating which was my point
    Astonishingly, the energy released by the impact of the Chicxulub meteor is estimated to be equivalent to about 72 teratonnes of TNT, which has got to be far more than all the world's nukes combined.
    Also, the specific chemical composition of the rocks there was particularly unfortinate in terms of atmospheric effects of the vaporized strata, though alas I forget the details of the hypothesis.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,007

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
    Scotland is the most pro oil part of the UK, 39% of Scots oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea compared to only 32% opposed in the UK overall (with Londoners most in favour of a ban).
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1

    Yet both the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil and gas developments, with only the Conservatives in favour
    Scotland is the second most in favour of a ban, at 40%, second only to London on 46%.

    Also, your figures seem to be wrong. Scotland is 36%, not 39% opposed to a ban.

    Scotland is marginally IN FAVOUR of such a ban according to your figures.
    Still more Scots are opposed to a ban on new oil developments than the 32% opposed to a ban in the UK overall. (Northerners are as supportive of a ban as Scots but both still significantly less than Londoners are).

    Yet BOTH the SNP and Starmer Labour back a ban on new oil developments with only the Conservatives standing up for the more than a third of Scots who oppose a ban on new oil and gas developments in the North Sea
    I'll do this as a picture so you can understand it better:

    figures for Scotland

    yes, ban it:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    no ban please:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤

    don't know:
    👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤👤
    👤👤👤👤👤
    And that No Ban group is over a third of Scottish voters and more than the UK average, yet ONLY the Scottish Conservatives are standing up for those who don't want a ban on new oil and gas extraction from the North Sea
    Of course, in Indy-Scotland it wouldn't matter a jot what Westminster politicians think.
    In Indy Scotland Scots would have an SNP government more in tune with Londoners than Scots on North Sea Oil extraction. Thankfully however the SNP support in Scotland is falling rapidly and Scottish Conservative support is far more resilient than UK Conservative support at present
    Starmer's fall in his Scotland ratings are likely for some to be his ban on further oil licences especially in the North East, but I would suggest his stance on Brexit is not helping as we see the SNP calling him out as a Brexiteer

    As I said earlier the SNP do appear to have stabilised their position and a lot will depend on the result of the police investigations

    Even on today's poll the SNP vote is still down 8% on 2019
    It would not have been unreasonable to see a double digit fall

    The Rutherglen by election will be interesting as will the result of the police investigations

    While support for independence has fallen it still remains in the mid forties and the SNP retain considerable support
    On today's MRP Labour are even projected to win most seats in Scotland, 31 to 26 for the SNP
    https://www.bestforbritain.org/mrp_polling_new_boundaries_june_2023
This discussion has been closed.